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#awoiaf The Year of the False Spring
horizon-verizon · 2 years
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And when the triumphant Prince of Dragonstone named Lyanna Stark, daughter of the Lord of Winterfell, the queen of love and beauty, placing a garland of blue roses in her lap with the tip of his lance, the lickspittle lords gathered around the king declared that further proof of his perfidy. Why would the prince have thus given insult to his own wife, the Princess Elia Martell of Dorne (who was present), unless it was to help him gain the Iron Throne? The crowning of the Stark girl, who was by all reports a wild and boyish young thing with none of the Princess Elia’s delicate beauty, could only have been meant to win the allegiance of Winterfell to Prince Rhaegar’s cause, Symond Staunton suggested to the king. Yet if this were true, why did Lady Lyanna’s brothers seem so distraught at the honor the prince had bestowed upon her? Brandon Stark, the heir to Winterfell, had to be restrained from confronting Rhaegar at what he took as a slight upon his sister’s honor, for Lyanna Stark had long been betrothed to Robert Baratheon, Lord of Storm’s End. Eddard Stark, Brandon’s younger brother and a close friend to Lord Robert, was calmer but no more pleased. As for Robert Baratheon himself, some say he laughed at the prince’s gesture, claiming that Rhaegar had done no more than pay Lyanna her due…but those who knew him better say the young lord brooded on the insult, and that his heart hardened toward the Prince of Dragonstone from that day forth.
A World of Ice and Fire, pg. 126-127
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There is an unfortunately pervasive aspect of this fandom in that people conflate and replace what is established in canon with what is "true" in fanonland. Or they let their biases run wild and come up with a wide array of baseless ideas.
I tire of this.
Was is when a 22 year old adult started showing interest in a pubescent 14 year old?
This is not out of place in a universe where the author turned Daenerys and Drogo into some love story, twisted as it was, or when he had admitted he was playing around with Sandor and Sansa in the books and that "there was something there," or when he has commissioned Sansan fanart hanging on his wall.
The man does not give two flying fucks about age gaps, even problematic ones by our modern standards.
Was it when he trapped her in Dorne with knights outside ready to kill anyone who tried to help her?
Why would they kill anyone who tried to help her? Lyanna was found in a bed of blood and was ill, so she possibly had puerperal fever after giving birth. There was no way she didn't have a wetnurse to accompany her. Was this wetnurse supposed to have been slain by the Kingsguard for daring to assist Lyanna?
Was it when he joined the war to kill her remaining family and Northerners?
He didn't join the war to specifically kill her family. I find it hard to believe that anyone could forget Rhaegar had stakes of his own, and family of his own. Like, if it wasn't for Rhaegar dying, Elia, Rhaenys, and Aegon wouldn't have been killed by the Mountain and Amory Lorch.
He didn't deliberately join the war to kill Lyanna's family, he did it so he could win it, return to King's Landing, and depose Aerys. This has been his goal as far back as the tourney at Harrenhal:
His lordship lacked the funds to pay such munificent prizes, they argued; someone else must surely have stood behind him, someone who did not lack for gold but preferred to remain in the shadows whilst allowing the Lord of Harrenhal to claim the glory for hosting this magnificent event. We have no shred of evidence that such a "shadow host" ever existed, but the notion was widely believed at the time and remains so today.
But if indeed there was a shadow, who was he, and why did he choose to keep his role a secret? A dozen names have been put forward over the years, but only one seems truly compelling: Rhaegar Targaryen, Prince of Dragonstone.
If this tale be believed, 'twas Prince Rhaegar who urged Lord Walter to hold the tourney, using his lordship's brother Ser Oswell as a gobetween. Rhaegar provided Whent with gold sufficient for splendid prizes in order to bring as many lords and knights to Harrenhal as possible. The prince, it is said, had no interest in the tourney as a tourney; his intent was to gather the great lords of the realm together in what amounted to an informal Great Council, in order to discuss ways and means of dealing with the madness of his father, King Aerys II, possibly by means of a regency or a forced abdication. (The Fall of the Dragons: The Year of the False Spring, The World of Ice and Fire)
Rhaegar had put his hand on Jaime's shoulder. "When this battle's done I mean to call a council. Changes will be made. I meant to do it long ago, but...well, it does no good to speak of roads not taken. We shall talk when I return." (Jaime I, AFfC)
The major wrench thrown in Rhaegar's plans was Aerys attending said tourney.
Was it when he left her to die in a pool of her own blood?
Rhaegar was dead before then, and even as he was dying he whispered Lyanna's name, as was semi-confirmed in the World of Ice and Fire app.
Leading a large host to the Trident, Rhaegar met Robert in battle duelling on horseback in the fording of the river Rhaegar was killed after giving Robert a serious wound. He would die with Lyanna's name on his lips. (Rhaegar Targaryen, AWoIaF app)
She was in his thoughts even while dying.
Was it when she screamed for her brother to save her?
She didn't. And she would never call Ned "Lord Eddard."
As they came together in a rush of steel and shadow, he could hear Lyanna screaming. "Eddard!" she called. A storm of rose petals blew across a blood-streaked sky, as blue as the eyes of death.
"Lord Eddard," Lyanna called again.
"I promise," he whispered. "Lya, I promise..."
"Lord Eddard," a man echoed from the dark. (Eddard X, AGoT)
This is based on a fever dream, of which George already said that not all dreams are literal. Rose petals certainly were not blowing across a blood-streaked sky, after all, and by Ned's account, the petals in Lyanna's hold were not blue, but crushed and blackened.
Ned remembered the way she had smiled then, how tightly her fingers had clutched his as she gave up her hold on life, the rose petals spilling from her palm, dead and black. After that he remembered nothing. (Eddard I, AGoT)
Moreover:
I might mention, though, that Ned's account, which you refer to, was in the context of a dream...and a fever dream at that. Our dreams are not always literal.
[Source]
So we're still, deliberately, in the dark about the events surrounding the tower of joy.
You'll need to wait for future books to find out more about the Tower of Joy and what happened there, I fear.
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Was it when she begged to be buried with her family in Winterfell?
About this.
It was already a given that Lyanna's body was going to be returned home, as all Starks are traditionally interred in the crypts.
Ned stopped at last and lifted the oil lantern. The crypt continued on into darkness ahead of them, but beyond this point the tombs were empty and unsealed; black holes waiting for their dead, waiting for him and his children. Ned did not like to think on that. (Eddard I, AGoT)
The only exception to this rule has been Brandon the Shipwright, since he was lost at sea. Rickard and Brandon died in King's Landing yet they were returned to Winterfell, so I doubt she'd truly have to beg Ned for that:
They were almost at the end now, and Bran felt a sadness creeping over him. "And there's my grandfather, Lord Rickard, who was beheaded by Mad King Aerys. His daughter Lyanna and his son Brandon are in the tombs beside him. Not me, another Brandon, my father's brother. They're not supposed to have statues, that's only for the lords and the kings, but my father loved them so much he had them done." (Bran VII, AGoT)
The problem is how frequently this allusion to a promise has been in Ned's chapters. I doubt he would be thinking of it nearly as much if it was solely about Lyanna's bones returning home, so her pleading must narratively carry a deeper meaning. We are talking about a man who has said before that he had lived with lies for fourteen years and how it often troubled him at night.
Jon was fourteen at the start of the series.
Please direct me to the "love story"
Regarding the possible nature of Rhaegar and Lyanna's relationship, I believe this quote of George's implies it was indeed a romance, in his own preferred telling of one:
It’s interesting, to get back to this issue of romance that you raised earlier. When I was in Spain a few years ago, I had dinner with a woman — a Spanish academic — and a big fan of both science fiction and romance, and she had read a lot of my stuff because people said I was a very romantic writer. And she sort of launched at me and said, “What are you talking about?! You are not a romantic writer, you know. Nobody ever lives happily ever after in your books!” I was defending it, saying, “Well, but that’s a different tradition of romance. I don’t — I’m a romantic writer in the tradition of The Great Gatsby and Romeo and Juliet, and, you know, the Beauty and the Beast. These things don’t necessarily have happy endings, but aren’t the most powerful romances the unfulfilled romances — the romances where people go their separate ways, but they’ll always have Paris, like in Casablanca, one of the films I showed here. You know, they go separate at the end, but they’ll always have Paris.” And she basically said, “No, you’re wrong. They have to be happily ever after together for it to be romance, otherwise it’s just sad.”
[Source: 03:19]
Rhaegar and Lyanna's story is analogous to the tale of Bael the Bard and the Stark maiden; there was a reason why this tale of the blue winter rose was told to Jon specifically. Like the Stark maiden in the story, Lyanna loved Rhaegar so much that she bore him a son.
Bael and the Stark maiden's tale was not a happily ever after, either; both lovers died in the end. But their union did produce a child.
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aegor-bamfsteel · 2 years
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about Sansa being born in winter, according to awoiaf(.)westeros(.)org wiki, we dont know what season it was and seasons in asoiaf universe don't work like our seasons. Year of False Spring was 281 so we don't know the season Jon was born in.
Reference to this post.
ASOIAF seasons are usually longer than our seasons, but they do seem to follow the pattern of winter, spring, summer, and autumn. According to the known seasons, Daenerys was born in Summer of 284, and we know from the main series that they’ve had a summer lasting 10 years by 298, meaning it started 288. If you assume each season was a year, then it follows 284 (summer), 285 (autumn), 286 (winter), 287 (spring), and 288 (start of the long summer). Sansa is confirmed born in 286, though toward the end, so under the assumption of year long seasons, she was born in winter. Continuing that assumption, the Winter that the year of the False Spring took place in lasted into 282, and if Dany was born early summer 284, spring would’ve had to have occurred sometime in 283, the year of Jon and Robb’s births.
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willfulbeautya · 5 years
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Lyanna Stark and the Possibility that she’s a Greenseer
I would like to preface this headcanon by saying that this is borne out of my own imagination + analysis of the text + hours of conversation with @prphecybound​. There’s a very high possibility that I’m completely off the mark and of course, you don’t have to agree with me on this. But as far as this interpretation is concerned, I’m adapting this headcanon in all of Lyanna’s main verses, and things will have to change. I may have to drop threads which are no longer relevant because of the changes introduced by this headcanon, so I thank you for your patience and understanding in advance.
TLDR:  Right before the tourney at Harrenhal,  Lyanna Stark had a run in with a wildling who possessed the greensight. This was the first time she heard of the “prophecy” and she was told to “follow the path of blue roses”. During the tourney, after he found out that she masqueraded as the Knight of the Laughing Tree, Rhaegar Targaryen crowned Lyanna the Queen of Love and Beauty and laid a crown of blue winter roses on her lap. On the way home to Winterfell from the Riverlands, the She-Wolf contracted a fever. It took some time for her to recover, and she had fever dreams and green dreams while she suffered through her illness. The green dreams would continue even after she regained her health. 
I’m in danger of repeating some key points that I’ve already discussed over and over like a broken record, so I’m just going to list them and you can ask me questions about them ( if you have any ), in which case I’ll probably talk your ear off:
PS. You can skip through the bullet points to get to the important parts!
Lyanna is the Knight of the Laughing Tree. I think this is as good as canon at this point.
Rhaegar found Lyanna out. As a sort of acknowledgment, he crowned her The Queen of Love and Beauty by the end of the tourney at Harrenhal. It doesn’t go any deeper than that ( a.k.a. they’re not secretly in-love,  sorry ).
The Mad King also found Lyanna out and ordered for her arrest. I’ve written extensively about this here, but pretty much the mad king was triggered by the KOTLT and couldn’t let shit go.
In connection to the above, here are some of the popular beliefs about Lyanna and her character that I don’t really buy and will NOT be adapted into this interpretation:
Lyanna ran away with Rhaegar to escape the betrothal with Robert. While I don’t think Lyanna was the most eager to be married to Robert Baratheon ( or to be married at all ), I also don’t think she ran away with Rhaegar to escape her betrothal. She could have run away, point blank period. But with a married prince? I don’t think so. ( Considering too, that Lyanna’s initial reservation against Robert was his inability to keep to one bed. Based off of that alone, I don’t think Lyanna would willingly participate in infidelity of any kind. In this separate essay I will – )
Lyanna was not dutiful. True to a degree, if only because she was not raised to be dutiful, exactly. She won’t inherit Winterfell, unlike Brandon. The expectations of her were quite different compared to the expectations of her brothers. Her purpose was to marry and have children and that’s that. So yeah, she’s not exactly as committed to duty like Brandon could have been or Ned was, but that didn’t take away from the fact that she adored her family and she had a strong moral compass.
Lyanna was selfish. I see this around a lot and it’s the most mind-boggling of all. This was the girl who, at 14 years old, was ready to throw down against three grown squires to defend the honor of her father’s bannerman. She later fought in a tourney and won, and asked the lords that the squires served to teach them manners. If she would go that far to defend a sworn bannerman to House Stark, who was not just being bullied but also discriminated upon because of his culture, then I’m pretty certain she’s the type to stand up to injustice without regard for herself. In that similar vein, I don’t think she would besmirch her family’s honor on a whim, knowing how seriously she took the meaning of that honor as made clear by her defense of Howland Reed. 
Now that we’ve gotten all of those out of the way, it’s time to dive in into the void.
As is already previously established by canon, all Stark children are wargs. I know this mostly pertains to the six children of Eddard and Catelyn Stark, but there’s literally no reason why it could not extend to the generation of Starks that came before them. Brandon and Lyanna for example, possess the legendary “wolf-blood” of the Starks of old, and thus are tied very closely to the Stark mythos of being descended from the First Men. According to AWOIAF, “Greenseers had the greensight and were wargs as well.” While not all wargs are greenseers, we have evidence in Bran that the greensight is definitely alive and well in the Stark line ( and in the North, as evidenced by Jojen Reed, a crannogman, and Brynden Rivers a.k.a. Bloodraven, whose mother was a Blackwood ).
Following this logic, I don’t think it’s extremely far-fetched to say that Lyanna might have been a greenseer. The ability in Bran was triggered by his fall, whereas it almost came too easily and too naturally to Rickon. Rickon and Bran shared the same dream about Ned’s death ( which they predicted even before Maester Luwin made the announcement ), and Rickon also knew when Catelyn and Robb left that they would never see them again.
In Lyanna’s case, I don’t think she knew what she was ( I don’t think the Starks ever realized how closely they were tied to what’s left of magic in the world ). She knew she was said to have the wolf-blood, and I’m guessing that that had something to do with her temperament ( a trait she shared with Brandon ). By all accounts, Lyanna was wild and brave; she thrived off of independence and did not do well with restrictions. She rode horses like she was half a horse herself according to Roose Bolton, and maybe that’s because she understood horses like no ordinary human could?
I’ve already headcanoned that my Lyanna was a warg, so I’m going to take it a step further and say that she was a greenseer as well. No, she’s not as good at it as Bran, mainly because it was not a talent she cared to develop. She knew how heavy the weight of the prophecy hung on Rhaegar’s shoulders, and she would not want to carry the same burden.
I need to write a drabble on this and I will, but basically, here’s how I see it playing out: right before Harrenhal, during the year of false spring, Lord Rickard Stark’s men caught wildling raiders not far from Winterfell. Now we all know the northern tradition that whoever passes the sentence should swing the sword, and as Lord Paramount of the North, Rickard had to be the one to do it. Lyanna and Benjen caught wind of this execution and went ahead of their father’s men to see the wildling raiders for themselves before they went on the chopping block. This was mostly at Lyanna’s insistence, and Benjen was happy enough to follow where his elder sister lead.
When they reached the field where the execution was to be held, they saw the wildlings manacled inside a cage ( not unlike the one that held Jaqen H’ghar and his two companions ). One of them, a wilding woman, saw Lyanna and Benjen and knew exactly what they were: wargs. But that was not all. Lyanna caught much more than a passing interest from the wildling woman who beckoned the she-wolf closer. Against Benjen’s wishes, Lyanna went, and when the woman seized her arms, the wildling’s eyes rolled back inside her head so far that all Lyanna could see were the whites of her eyes. And then the woman spoke:
Beware, child. The endless night is near and it will swallow the world. You must bring forth the song of ice and fire and pay in blood to stay the cold that never ends. You must follow the path of blue roses where it leads. One day the mountain will crush the sun and the lion will bleed the streets dry. One day –
( This sucks but bear with me. I’m not George R.R. Martin )
Before the wildling could utter more, Lord Rickard arrived and caught Lyanna speaking with the wildling. Needless to say, he was not happy, and grew ever more incensed when the wildling leaned in and whispered something in his hear. Lyanna never figured out what the wildling said and her father never felt inclined to share. Lord Rickard also decided that since she and Benjen were already there, they might as well stay and watch the execution. They both did. They held hands, but they didn’t look away.
Anyway, cut to Harrenhal. Lyanna was just given a crown of blue roses by Rhaegar Targaryen, and the wildling woman’s words were ringing in her ears. On the journey back to Winterfell, Lyanna who rarely ever got sick, caught a fever along the way and started to have odd fever dreams. In these dreams, she saw a castle burning. Dragons were flying all around, trying to escape the fire, and in the middle of the chaos was a girl dancing round and round, with flowers in her hair.
Lyanna dreamed of the same castle, now in ruins, and a short woman with floor-length white hair stooping against a cane. A harp was playing somewhere and the woman was weeping, calling out for someone named Jenny. She also dreamed of a sandstorm, with the air whipping around her face in tumultuous gusts, smelling of blood and roses.
The she-wolf dreamed of a great many things, not everything she remembered when she finally recovered from the fever. Afterwards, the dreams would continue, and though not as vivid as before, there was always a sense of urgency in them that she could not explain. Sometimes she would dream of a night sky, viewed from below, as though she was lying down on a stone floor looking up. In the days leading up to her encounter with Rhaegar Targaryen in the Riverlands, she would dream of the Isles of Faces, which was where she knew she had to go to, to make sense of whatever was happening to her. She would meet Rhaegar there eventually, and along with him, the Ghost of High Heart, whom she already had visions of prior ( the short woman with floor-length white hair ).
It was the Ghost of High Heart who eventually convinced Lyanna of the role she had to play in fulfilling the prophecy of The Prince Who Was Promised / Azor Ahai. Combined with the words of the wildling and her own green dreams, it became difficult for her to deny that she was somehow involved in the foretelling that Rhaegar was so obsessed with. The Ghost also repeated something the wildling had said to Lyanna prior, which was that she would “pay in blood” to fulfill her role, which Lyanna interpreted as her imminent death.
You might be thinking “well, that’s stupid” and yes, it kinda was. The thing with Lyanna though was that she really did not have anything going on for her aside from a betrothal, which she was not feeling every keen about. This prophecy though… was something bigger than herself, and was something which can potentially save the realm from an ominous threat. The KOTLT incident showed us that Lyanna had a strong sense of morality, and also a penchant for risky yet grand gestures of bravery. Saving the world was the kind of thing that she would not even think twice of doing, no matter the cost to herself.
Things Lyanna did not foresee: Brandon’s reaction to the news that she was missing and Brandon’s fast assumption that it was Rhaegar who took her. At most, Lyanna expected they would notice her absence and would assume she ran away from her betrothal, but for her brother to accuse the crown prince and storm the capital while doing so… did not occur to her. Also, IMPORTANT: Lyanna and Rhaegar had no idea about Rickard and Brandon’s death until after the Battle of the Bells, when Gerold Hightower finally found them in TOJ and asked Rhaegar to return to King’s Landing. By this time, Lyanna was already pregnant.
Whether or not Rhaegar and Lyanna were right about the prophecy… doesn’t really matter here. They could be completely wrong. Dany could be the TPWWP and not Jon. Heck, it could be Aegon ( if he truly was Aegon lmao ). Basically, this was just how they interpreted the prophecy, and they both paid in blood for it. Since they’re alive in mine and Bubbles’ main timeline verses, the blood is of their loved ones, which was infinitely worse for both of them than if it were their own blood.
Is this a ship now? Well, no. At least not during TOJ, and heck, not many years after that. Lyanna was miserable in that tower and I can’t imagine Rhaegar was all too happy either. They’re doing what they thought they had to do, and Lyanna was going into it thinking she would die. All things considered, that might have been her preferred outcome, now that she knew just how much blood she had to pay to assume the role that would make the prophecy come true. The only real consolation in the aftermath was Ned’s forgiveness and the fact that Jon was kept alive because her brother loved her enough to give up his honor for her. But even then, it was a bitter consolation, and Lyanna would spend all her life trying to make up for her mistakes. 
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liesandarbor · 7 years
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A Falling Star in Westeros Pt I: Analyzing Ashara Dayne
Part I of V in a collection of writings regarding the mysterious and ‘late’ Ashara Dayne, her potential effect on narrative, and compelling arguments for and against her fate. Part I explores House Dayne and Ashara's timeline during the Rebellion and other perspectives surrounding her character.
Naught Like a Tourney to Make the Blood Run Hot
"There was one knight," said Meera, "in the year of the false spring. The Knight of the Laughing Tree, they called him. He might have been a crannogman, that one." "Or not." Jojen's face was dappled with green shadows. "Prince Bran has heard that tale a hundred times, I'm sure." "No," said Bran. "I haven't. And if I have it doesn't matter. Sometimes Old Nan would tell the same story she'd told before, but we never minded, if it was a good story. Old stories are like old friends, she used to say. You have to visit them from time to time." -Bran II, ASOS
Fleeting recollections of Robert’s Rebellion hit the pages of A Song of Ice and Fire... and dissipate almost immediately. The blazing heat of romance between Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark casts a shadow throughout the plot, while secondary tragic romances fill in the cracks created by war, loss and rising tensions. 279 - 283 AC were complete blockbuster years: Westerosi A-Listers, action packed war scenes, and as we pry tape off corners and remove neatly laid packaging materials, we reveal a story that more than exceeds its genre’s expectations.
Where other authors retcon plots to accommodate twists and suspension of disbelief, (looking at you, Orson Scott Card), details planted by George RR Martin don’t scream ‘trickery’; he doesn’t cheapen the original package.  Instead, each twist is organically grown, supported by established character motivations, and carefully precedented in the pages.
Through PTSD-riddled unreliable narrators, we hurdle into a tale of heightened catastrophe and romance. The ringing of steel, maidens in silk, heated urgency of young lovers linger in the air; and a bone-chilling refrain of death (promise me, she cried).
The kidnapping of Lyanna Stark remains the focus of the Rebellion, but in that story’s telling, we are introduced to several other key players.  The most prominent establishing is offered up in A Storm of Swords.  Where Martin builds the mystery surrounding Robert’s Rebellion in the first two books, Bran II offers us a deeper look at everyone involved:
"That evening there was to be a feast in Harrenhal, to mark the opening of the tourney, and the she-wolf insisted that the lad attend. He was of high birth, with as much a right to a place on the bench as any other man. She was not easy to refuse, this wolf maid, so he let the young pup find him garb suitable to a king's feast, and went up to the great castle. "Under Harren's roof he ate and drank with the wolves, and many of their sworn swords besides, barrowdown men and moose and bears and mermen. The dragon prince sang a song so sad it made the wolf maid sniffle, but when her pup brother teased her for crying she poured wine over his head. A black brother spoke, asking the knights to join the Night's Watch. The storm lord drank down the knight of skulls and kisses in a wine-cup war. The crannogman saw a maid with laughing purple eyes dance with a white sword, a red snake, and the lord of griffins, and lastly with the quiet wolf . . . but only after the wild wolf spoke to her on behalf of a brother too shy to leave his bench. -Bran II ASOS
Our first glimpse at Harrenhal players arrive through the eyes of Howland Reed, echoed in his daughter’s voice.  From the Stark family to Yoren, Robert Baratheon to Richard Lonmouth, we find a vibrant distraction from the melancholy centerpiece: a beautiful, dancing maid with purple eyes.
The first daughter of an ancient Dornish house, Ashara Dayne materializes in and out of pages like stardust.  A beautiful young woman with a seemingly brighter future, sent to the capital to further her station and serve her liege lords of House Martell.  She ends in the summer sea, buried beneath rumors of a fatal tragedy; suicide, losing a child and brother in the war.
So, Ashara’s voice is taken from the narrative before readers chance to hear it. Instead, secondhand rumors from point of view characters detail her character.  Where we search for a single grain of truth in Ashara’s story, theories and ideas tend to crop up out of nowhere.
The Mysterious Life of House Dayne
The family with strangely hued eyes and lineage supposedly dates back to the Dawn Age.  Through various speculation and soft facts, the closest thing to a Dayne Rebellion family timeline I could create while deciphering Ned Dayne’s parentage was born (That theory is originally found at link, but for the time being, explanation helps this updated timeline go down smoothly).
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**note: Gerold Dayne was left out of the table, due to lack of effect on Ashara and as a cadet branch of House Dayne.  While we may get House Dayne exposition from him in The Winds of Winter, it is not likely his timeline of birth is relevant to this piece.
***Mom/Dad are complete speculation- there is no canonical information in the books to go off besides Ashara’s semi-solid birth parameters, and the vague idea that the mom would probably birth their first son between the ages of 15-25
Mom and Dad Dayne: 230-240 AC Birth, 280-294 AC Death
For the Eldest Dayne to become Lord of Starfall, and Edric’s birth in 287 AC, the parents would die between 280-294 - allowing Eldest Dayne to act as Lord (betrothals/political moves for Edric and Allyria).  If Allyria is the daughter of the Mom/Dad Dayne, they had to be alive 279-283 AC (see  below).  Birth dates are speculated from the latest birth dates for the Eldest Dayne, aging them 15-25 at Eldest Dayne’s birth and 33-43 at Allyria’s.  This fits Mom Dayne to a similar age as Joanna Lannister and unnamed Martell mother, although that doesn’t denote canon.  We may never get a clear view on the Dayne Parents in the narrative, although Elio Garcia confirmed we will at least find out more on the Dayne Family Tree in the future books.
*Note: Though unnamed in ASOIAF canon, a Game of Thrones Easter Egg names the Dayne father “Beric”  - talk about Daddy Issues for Allyria, huh?
Eldest Dayne: 250-255 AC Birth (Lord of Starfall 287 AC - 297) 294-297 AC Death
With nothing to go on besides “Edric’s father was the Lord of Starfall until Edric was”, the Eldest Dayne clocks in at 10 or fewer years between Arthur and him.  I speculate if someone were to create a betrothal for Allyria in 294 (which, if you hit the Ned Dayne Parentage theory, would make sense to bind the Marcher Lords to the Daynes, keeping behavior in line regarding the Fowlers) the Eldest Dayne was still alive - putting him 39-44 years old in 294 AC.  If Ned Dayne is 7 in 294 AC, the Eldest Dayne would be around 32-37 when Ned was born.  If Ned Dayne is the current Lord of Starfall, his father was Lord before him, even if brief.  His father would be dead between 294-297 AC; something Ned seems to have come to terms with in ASOS, where he meets Arya in 299/300 AC.  Four to six years later seems appropriate, as Ned would have gone off to page for Beric in 294 AC.
Arthur: 255-260 AC Birth, 283 AC Death
Not as much to decipher here, so I’ll give you a break:if Jaime Lannister was the youngest KG at 15, that indicates Arthur Dayne had to be at least 16 years old in 276 AC, if not older.  Arthur was born, at latest, 260 AC.
Ashara: 260-265 AC Birth, 283 AC “Death” (speculated off of SSM, Rebellion timeline, and Martells visiting Starfall on their Marriage Journey (ASOS) )
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In a 2002 SSM, Martin stated Ashara, if alive, would be in her thirties. Operating in Storm of Swords time, 299-300 AC, this puts her birth before 270 AC. 270 AC puts Ashara at 12 during the Tourney at Harrenhal; earlier than 260 AC puts her at 22+.  A narrower age range would be appropriate at 260-265 AC.  Following Oberyn’s notion that “a difference of five or six years is little enough.” (Tyrion X, ASOS) and his age being 16-17 at the time of their visit, Ashara was likely in her pre/early teens during 273 AC. Elia Martell was born about five to ten years before Ashara - logically, we can assume Ashara is born closer to 260-265 AC than 270 AC. Having Ashara born in 260-265 AC leaves her within the range of the ‘tragic teen romance’ role given to the Rebellion Ladies - any younger doesn’t quite fit.
Allyria: 279-283 AC Birth
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According to AWOIAF, Allyria Dayne is the younger sister of Eldest, Arthur and Ashara Dayne.  Allyria is betrothed to Beric Dondarrion in 294 AC.  Betrothals generally occur for highborn young woman between the ages of eleven to fifteen, if not before the girl flowers (Lyanna at thirteen, Sansa at eleven, Myrcella at ten, Margaery thirteen/fourteen). Allyria was probably born about 279 AC earliest and latest 283 AC.  She would currently be at oldest 21, and youngest 17.
Edric: 287 AC Birth, Lord of Starfall somewhere in 294-297 AC
"How long have you been Lord Beric's squire?" she asked, to take his mind from his misery. "He took me for his page when he espoused my aunt." He coughed. "I was seven, but when I turned ten he raised me to squire. I won a prize once, riding at rings." "I never learned the lance, but I could beat you with a sword," said Arya. "Have you killed anyone?" That seemed to startle him. "I'm only twelve." I killed a boy when I was eight, Arya almost said, but she thought she'd better not. -Arya VIII, ASOS
If Ned Dayne was seven when Allyria was betrothed (294 AC), he would have to be eleven turning twelve in 299 AC, placing his birth in 287 AC.
While Martin has slipped up with subtle details in the past - Jeyne Westerling’s hips, Tyrion’s majestic tumbling, Renly’s eye color, currency value, gender-changing horses - there’s reason to believe that these subtle details in the House Dayne plot are important. The family with a famed, apocalypse ending sword has to come into play eventually - like Martin has said, “you don't hang a giant wolf pack on the wall unless you intend to use it”.  Logically, if they hold Dawn - and have held Dawn - House Dayne has a major part to play in the story to come.  Why introduce Ned Dayne and Dawn lore, if not? And further, why introduce and consistently reintroduce Ashara Dayne?
  She Who Treads on the Sea
Ashara Dayne’s Personal Timeline
“As to your speculations about Catelyn and Ashara Dayne... sigh... needless to say, All Will Be Revealed in Good Time. I will give you this much, however; Ashara Dayne was not nailed to the floor in Starfall, as some of the fans who write me seem to assume. They have horses in Dorne too, you know. And boats (though not many of their own). As a matter of fact (a tiny tidbit from SOS), she was one of Princess Elia's lady companions in King's Landing, in the first few years after Elia married Rhaegar. The rest I will save for the books.” (SSM)
If you found the Dayne rebellion timeline tedious, this next one is easier to digest.  Poring over each minute detail in order to speculate ages… is not something you glance and ‘catch’.  Actually, speculation of most Rebellion moments tend to be composed of exactly that.  The true problem remains: we don’t know what Martin’s true canon is. Are the timelines off on purpose, or simply blurred from normal inconsistencies in narration? With the importance of House Dayne in the wars to come, I don’t see Martin leaving their mystery alone.  Ashara’s personal timeline during the rebellion isn’t quite as complicated to keep track of, but with so little canon available, it’s a reasonable amount of information to absorb.
273 AC - The Martell visit
The Marriage Search
"Do you recall the tale I told you of our first meeting, Imp?" Prince Oberyn asked, as the Bastard of Godsgrace knelt before him to fasten his greaves. "It was not for your tail alone that my sister and I came to Casterly Rock. We were on a quest of sorts. A quest that took us to Starfall, the Arbor, Oldtown, the Shield Islands, Crakehall, and finally Casterly Rock . . . but our true destination was marriage. Doran was betrothed to Lady Mellario of Norvos, so he had been left behind as castellan of Sunspear. My sister and I were yet unpromised.”
-Tyrion X, ASOS
Elia and I were older, to be sure. Your brother and sister could not have been more than eight or nine. Still, a difference of five or six years is little enough. And there was an empty cabin on our ship, a very nice cabin, such as might be kept for a person of high birth. As if it were intended that we take someone back to Sunspear. A young page, perhaps. Or a companion for Elia. Your lady mother meant to betroth Jaime to my sister, or Cersei to me. Perhaps both."
-Tyrion X, ASOS
In a mighty Dornish exposition drop, Oberyn Martell gives more than us a few interesting moments to review. A few assumptions can be made from even the smallest of sentences.  The Martell Marriage Search sent Oberyn and Elia to find proper and advantageous alliances in Westeros.  While we know the eventual doom Elia’s marriage evoked, it is worth noting that their first stop was Starfall.  Were Ashara born between 260-265, she would have been between the age of eight and 13 during the visit, with Arthur at least thirteen by this meeting. Oberyn and Elia were about 16 and 15 during the Martell Marriage Search, and more than likely within the five to six year age range of the Dayne siblings.  
"What I did not tell you was that my mother waited as long as was decent, and then broached your father about our purpose. Years later, on her deathbed, she told me that Lord Tywin had refused us brusquely. His daughter was meant for Prince Rhaegar, he informed her. And when she asked for Jaime, to espouse Elia, he offered her you instead."
-Tyrion X, ASOS
So why no Dayne match? If you subscribe to the Southron Ambitions theory by Stefan Sasse, you’ll already know and believe that the older generation of parent figures and players in Robert’s Rebellion (Rickard Stark, Hoster Tully, Jon Arryn, Tywin Lannister, Steffon Baratheon) were obsessed with finding politically beneficial matches for their children and family.  The ruling Princess of Dorne, a long-time friend and fellow Lady-in-waiting to Rhaella Targaryen, Joanna Lannister, had her own plans that went awry; including a Lannister match.
Late 280 AC - Spring of 281 AC
King’s Landing: Lady-in-waiting
Rhaegar had chosen Lyanna Stark of Winterfell. Barristan Selmy would have made a different choice. Not the queen, who was not present. Nor Elia of Dorne, though she was good and gentle; had she been chosen, much war and woe might have been avoided. His choice would have been a young maiden not long at court, one of Elia's companions … though compared to Ashara Dayne, the Dornish princess was a kitchen drab.
-The Kingbreaker, ADWD
Elia Martell married Prince Rhaegar Targaryen in early 280 AC, in King’s Landing.  They moved to Dragonstone after the wedding, and later in 280 AC, Elia had their first child, Princess Rhaenys.  They presented the baby to King Aerys II and Rhaella after she was born.  With the tourney right around the corner in the false spring, and Elia and Rhaegar both returning to Dragonstone after the tourney, we can assume that Ashara Dayne came to King’s Landing as a companion to Elia when they presented Princess Rhaenys to the royal family.
So, what exactly would the job description of Elia Martell’s lady-in-waiting entail? Historically, a court lady is someone of noble but lower social birth of their attended who acts almost like an assistant. A lady in today’s more feudal societies, such as Kate Middleton’s attendees, would find themselves tasked with acting like a social auxiliary, managing correspondences and helping entertain notable luminaries. In the feudal ASOIAF society, ladies participate in queenly pastimes; wardrobe care/dressing, highborn activities (needlework, riding, music), supervision over servants, and even as messenger for discreet communications.  Overall, ladies at court offer friendship for a woman who can’t exactly go out and make friends with just any common human.  (History Revealed, Lordsandladies.org)
If, as Barristan states,  Ashara accompanied Elia to King’s Landing but didn’t stay long (The Kingbreaker, ADWD), then she probably wasn’t running around the castle playing hopscotch all day.  Elia was bedridden for half a year after giving birth to Rhaenys.  Had Ashara come to court when Rhaenys was presented - and stayed until the Tourney of Harrenhal was over - she would probably miss out on a lot of the normal lady-in-waiting activities; she may not have had a friendly and loving relationship as most would think with Elia.  A 13-20 year old daughter, pulled from the sandy coasts of the summer sea to attend court and create opportunities for herself and her family ended up alone in a great keep, where madness, prophecy, and a hint of wildfire circled the royal family.  Dornish weren’t exactly made to feel like welcome guests in the castle - the king refused to touch Rhaenys when she was presented to him (TWOIAF) and grew increasingly hostile and paranoid against Dorne and its allies as time went on.  Aerys even went as far as holding Elia and her children hostage in the war to keep Lewyn and her family (and their armies) under control.  
Like other girls who come to the capital with heads full of sparkling knights and ladies, King’s Landing probably wasn’t fun and games for Ashara. There truly isn’t textual basis in Ashara/Elia slumber parties, staying up ‘til 3 AM and braiding each other’s hair every night.  Elia would have been at least 4-5 years Ashara’s senior, if not more.  Her duties to Elia would have, more than likely, been tedious.  Imagine walking into court each day, knowing exactly how the current king felt about your ethnicity and culture - even openly insulting his grandchildren and daughter-in-law. Aerys II’s court didn’t exactly sound like the songs; there was no romance, no fun.
Tourney at Harrenhal: Early/Mid Mid 281 AC
The crannogman saw a maid with laughing purple eyes dance with a white sword, a red snake, and the lord of griffins, and lastly with the quiet wolf . . . but only after the wild wolf spoke to her on behalf of a brother too shy to leave his bench.
-Bran, ASOS
The first night of the Tourney, a great feast was held.  Meera Reed details the feast to Bran Stark, and we are posed on the walls of Harrenhal, watching Ashara Dayne dance with several dance partners - a white sword (Barristan Selmy or her brother, Arthur), a red snake (Oberyn Martell), the lord of griffins (Jon Connington) and the quiet wolf (Ned Stark) at the wild wolf(Brandon Stark)’s request.  
Where Rhaegar Targaryen and Elia Martell were present at the Tourney at Harrenhal, Ashara Dayne was not far behind.  There to attend Elia (also seen in official art depicted by Paolo Puggioni in The World of Ice and Fire) - Ashara likely spent time comforting her after the public embarrassment of Rhaegar honoring Lyanna.
And that’s where Ashara’s timeline begins to trail off.  Barristan states Ashara was dishonored at Harrenhal (“Ashara's daughter had been stillborn, and his fair lady had thrown herself from a tower soon after, mad with grief for the child she had lost, and perhaps for the man who had dishonored her at Harrenhal as well.”- The Kingbreaker, ADWD), which plants the seed in our minds: Ashara had sex at the Tourney of Harrenhal, popped out a stillborn baby nine months later, and sequentially… threw herself off of a tower.  
But that timeline doesn’t quite add up.  Barristan says ‘soon after’ - which, left vague, could mean any number of days, weeks, or months, but certainly soon after in this text couldn’t mean one to two years.  Whether this is unreliable narration, perspective change, or even just Barristan being clueless - it isn’t necessarily a new concept concerning him (Aerys/Joanna and Rhaegar exposition, intricacies of politics in Meereen, etc).
Elia almost dead; Ashara returned to Starfall: 282 AC
Jon Connington remembered Prince Rhaegar's wedding all too well. Elia was never worthy of him. She was frail and sickly from the first, and childbirth only left her weaker. After the birth of Princess Rhaenys, her mother had been bedridden for half a year, and Prince Aegon's birth had almost been the death of her. She would bear no more children, the maesters told Prince Rhaegar afterward. -The Griffin Reborn, ADWD
When the Tourney concluded, Elia and Rhaegar returned home to Dragonstone, where Elia would give birth to Aegon VI Targaryen, and Rhaegar would soon take to the road with companions before falling upon and ‘kidnapping’ Lyanna Stark (The Fall of the Dragons: The Year of the False Spring, TWOIAF)
Drowning: 283 AC
"My father was Ser Arthur's elder brother. Lady Ashara was my aunt. I never knew her, though. She threw herself into the sea from atop the Palestone Sword before I was born." "Why would she do that?" said Arya, startled. Ned looked wary. Maybe he was afraid that she was going to throw something at him. "Your lord father never spoke of her?" he said. "The Lady Ashara Dayne, of Starfall?" -Arya VIII, ASOS
Words pause on the page; waters devour the first-born daughter of House Dayne.  The news is presented to us through Cersei Lannister, Barristan the Bold, Ned Dayne and Catelyn Stark: Ned Stark slew Ashara’s brother (“They called him the Sword of the Morning, and he would have killed me but for Howland Reed.” - Bran III, ACOK),  brought home her ancestral family sword (“Ned had carried Ser Arthur's sword back to the beautiful young sister who awaited him in a castle called Starfall”- Catelyn II, ACOK), and she jumped off of the Palestone Sword Tower (“Her heart was broken”- Arya VIII, ASOS).  Ashara is buried beneath the oceans of Planetos.  
But why is she brought up so often as we travel through ASOIAF?
The Purple Herring: Why Does Someone Have to Die?
“The death of a beautiful woman is, unquestionably, the most poetical topic in the world.” - Edgar Allan Poe
Ashara Dayne exists as an abstract notion that no one has grasped in the books; a construct, a lady in a tower, in a song. Nothing to describe her varied accounts, no one holding the real truth - and those that do hold that truth, have been moved off of the pages.
What begins as a distraction from the truth, readers are led away from the mystery of Rhaegar and Lyanna; but Ashara’s story slowly devolves into its own tragedy. What is implemented as a Dornish scapegoat; valyrian features, purple eyes, a fake-out, in case the savior emerged more Targaryen than Stark, turns into a simple blame game.  
While not the only herring to Jon’s parentage (see: Wylla, a serving woman from Starfall (Arya VIII, ASOS), as well as the Fisherman’s Daughter in Sisterton (Davos I, ADWD)), Ashara sits center stage as the most likely candidate. As a result, characters project failures, jealousy, and hunger for power on a dead girl with no voice, but sad, beautiful eyes.
Our first mention of Ashara splashes into an early POV during AGOT: a young woman finds what solace she can in being a sold pony, married to the Wolf in line for her father’s swords. Placing blame on a dead girl, Catelyn Stark escapes the shame of raising a child that wasn’t hers, and the pain of a husband who ‘cheated’.
That was the only time in all their years that Ned had ever frightened her. "Never ask me about Jon," he said, cold as ice. "He is my blood, and that is all you need to know. And now I will learn where you heard that name, my lady." She had pledged to obey; she told him; and from that day on, the whispering had stopped, and Ashara Dayne's name was never heard in Winterfell again. -Catelyn II, AGOT
A soiled Kingsguard member lays his feeling of failure at the foot of her grave.  The girl he should have saved, too beautiful to live, becomes a place for him to rest his guilt; on the one who got away.
But Ashara's daughter had been stillborn, and his fair lady had thrown herself from a tower soon after, mad with grief for the child she had lost, and perhaps for the man who had dishonored her at Harrenhal as well. She died never knowing that Ser Barristan had loved her. How could she? He was a knight of the Kingsguard, sworn to celibacy. No good could have come from telling her his feelings. No good came from silence either. If I had unhorsed Rhaegar and crowned Ashara queen of love and beauty, might she have looked to me instead of Stark? He would never know. But of all his failures, none haunted Barristan Selmy so much as that. - The Kingbreaker, ADWD
The scorned queen, jealous and prideful, grasping at rumored straws in an attempt to overpower and wound our protagonist.
"How dare you play the noble lord with me! What do you take me for? You've a bastard of your own, I've seen him. Who was the mother, I wonder? Some Dornish peasant you raped while her holdfast burned? A whore? Or was it the grieving sister, the Lady Ashara? She threw herself into the sea, I'm told. Why was that? For the brother you slew, or the child you stole? Tell me, my honorable Lord Eddard, how are you any different from Robert, or me, or Jaime?" -Cersei, AGOT
Ned allowing Ashara to be used as a herring for Jon's birth suggests that Ned knew to cover his bases. Of the three leading choices for Jon’s ‘parentage’, Ashara had the most to lose; and the most to give.  With House Dayne abetting Rhaegar - and even the slightest notion of Ashara being a link in finding the Tower of Joy - Robert Baratheon could find Ashara guilty in the kidnapping of Lyanna Stark. While Robert was a merciful ruler where loyalty lay, (seen with Barristan), Ned couldn't risk that information leading Robert deeper - deeper being closer to Jon's true parentage ("I see no babes. Only dragonspawn." Eddard II, AGOT).  
If Ashara lived, she would have to live quietly, or risk her own safety. As long as the Baratheons (and their supporters) held the Iron Throne and the Rhaegar/Lyanna myth held firm, Ashara Dayne was always going to be found guilty, no matter her true allegiance, no matter what her actions were - and careful, cautious Ned Stark couldn’t risk that.
Let me pull you out of these thoughts for a moment.  If you have a free browser tab to spare, throw this song on while you read.  It’s scored well for this next bit, and I’ve come to find that mood music always improves the overall sensation when Ashara is involved. “Why does someone have to die?” by Philip Glass from the Hours is a personal favorite soundtrack piece. 
The Hours plants the viewer in the lives of three very different women, yearning for something more, linked by a common denominator of fear and strife - much like the late females of the rebellion.  Their stories eventually intertwine, and Philip orchestrates the emotion of the piece: the swell of sadness, the cascading melancholy notes, the strings vibrating to resonate what words can not.  We turn towards the summer sea; the cool, pale marble of the Palestone Sword Tower against our toes.  We are at once filled with anguish.  As the waves sweep us away with Ashara’s ending, we ask the question: why does someone have to die?  
Specifically, why Ashara?
Because that’s the way the song goes. As she plummets to the bottom of the ocean and her life decrescendos, Ashara is dying, because that’s what we as the reader are told happens. The recipe calls for it, no matter which way we bend the story, or which variable we change. The innocent and the lovers are the first condemned in romance’s fire and tragedy.
Like any journey, the one to the savior’s birth is laced with sacrifice and loss. The sad girl, hair billowing behind her, standing on the edge of a tower in songs, will always throw herself off of the tower.  But is that the way it always goes, or is that the way that it is being written?  Is the audience simply comfortable with what we’ve been told, or do we press to find something deeper?
Martin allows readers to enter the “tower” in A Storm of Swords, without having to tell us that it is Ashara’s.
“Why did she jump into the sea though?” "Her heart was broken." “Sansa would have sighed and shed a tear for true love, but Arya just thought it was stupid.” She couldn't say that to Ned, though, not about his own aunt. "Did someone break it?" -Arya VIII, ASOS
“He sang about some stupid lady throwing herself off some stupid tower because her stupid prince was dead.” -Cat of the Canals, AFFC
Threads dangle in front of our faces, but we can’t quite clutch them; precisely how Ashara has been dangled in front of us in the series.  We are told to look.  Look closer. Things are not what they seem.
The Rebellion drills the reader to examine the stories in our hands, to probe between lines, while perspective tells us to remember who we are watching the story through. Arya finds the stories and songs stupid, which can be easily empathized with- remember being young, before things were so intricately complicated, so delicately woven?  The girl who needed to enter a literal house of black and white to learn that things aren’t always black and white has no clue just how complicated this situation could and could not be.
While war and tragedy waged on through the Rebellion, those innocently stuck on the losing side assumed the saddest position. Elia Martell, stuck in the capital with her children was unable to leave or protect them, despite having done everything asked of her; marry the crown prince, bear his children, say yes, yes, yes. Rhaella, lured home through storms to Dragonstone in the dead of night, finding a bitter end to the years of abuse endured at the hands of her brother-husband.  Ashara, the poeticized and mysterious young woman with an uncanny gaze further perpetuates the princess in the tower trope scattered throughout the story. Sansa, Arianne, and even Ashara are all stowed in this “tower”, stripped of choice and agency, each with different fates awaiting them.
“The lady should go kill the ones who killed her prince.  And the singer should be on the wall.“ -Cat of the Canals, AFFC
Were it that easy, wolf girl.  Things are never quite that easy, a lesson driven home repeatedly in cause-effect scenario.  In this moment, the girl with winter in her blood resembles the reader; rejecting the overtly romantic sounding layers, the true nature of the plot, and refusing to see past the words on the page.
The princess in the tower can’t just call the banners and go off to war for her ‘prince’.  Where most see in a range of color, songs of Westeros don’t offer that generous of a view. Ashara Dayne had to “die” for the cause.
Interlude: Panning Offscreen
In a simple, clean move, every scrap of narrative food disappears off of the table before we can get too greedy.  Where do characters with knowledge of every uninterpretable secret go? Off the screen.  They die. They’re never introduced to the POVs that feed us.  They disappear.  If they know too much, they are displaced from the page, at least until it’s deemed safe.  Their secrets lie in the air, whispering through each line.  Promise me, we hear, as Ned Stark’s head rolls. The reader resonates for 4 more books on the true meaning of the room that smelled of blood and roses.  Why did she throw herself into the sea? We teeter on the edge of a bittersweet tragedy, moments from breaking through. A pause. Ned Dayne flits between the chapters of ASOS, details are inched into our view, but our almost-exposition drop evaporates before it’s given away.
When he slept, he dreamed: dark disturbing dreams of blood and broken promises. - Eddard XV, AGOT
Thanks so much for taking the time to read, all! In part II, we're going to talk about the Tower of Joy (and the stigma of silence surrounding it), identity and hidden identity in Westeros, and compelling arguments against theories about Ashara as Quaithe, Septa Lemore, Brandon Stark's baby-mama and the-baby-swap.
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thecatsaesthetics · 7 years
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atopcat replied to your post “One thing that makes Jon being born in late 282 very possible is the...
Rhaegar and Lyanna ran off after Aegon was born so it couldn't have been 2 months later
Aegon was born before the Tourney in 281 it seems his birth year is place in 281 or 282 and since Rhaegar was gone by 282 I subscribe to the later. That much is clear. The Tourney seems to have happened towards the end of 281, because Lyanna and Rhaegar are gone by 282 when winter has arrived again. According to Martin in AWOIAF the false spring lasted 2 months in AWOAF. 
I don’t understand how fans think Aegon wasn’t born by the time the Tourney happened and that Elia was still pregnant. I feel that would have been noted that Rhaegar passed over his pregnant wife. 
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