#but it makes sense that. a spaceship on which resource management is priority 1.

[quietwingsinthesky]

you ask even how old they are and they reply with zero hint of irony whether you mean when they were born, how old their body is, or how many years they’ve been alive.

[restoftheowl]

Becoming undoomed

This is the second follow up on Does Culture Need Humans, originally published as an addendum to the book Encyclopedia of Internet Memes and Phenomena. In that paper I argued that memes control genes, and since culture is the main force driving the evolution of homo sapiens, it is a quasi-living entity that is also the pinnacle of evolution. Here I am looking at a scenario in which culture changes due to external factors.

I remember being perplexed finding out futurology was actually about determining possible futures. For me all of science and technology seemed to be pretty occupied with the future, so I expected futurology to be about why there are no masses of chimney pot hat wearing bearded men flying around on planes that seem to be made out of sticks and bed linen, since once that was supposed to be the future, or maybe find out what it was those people did who were better than most at foretelling what was to come.

Anyway, here’s an attempt that goes both ways: determine a possible future and a suggest a more efficient approach to determining it. The original thesis is that life creates the reality in which culture created humans, to carry on the project of expansion and taking over the universe, thus the following is also an attempt at cultural futurology. Our thought experiment is a doom scenario with a twist, and it will be presented with a twirl. The premise is the following:

A cosmic event in the Solar System will render the Earth inhabitable. (An asteroid is about to or has already hit a planet or a moon, causing a cascading effect, changing the orbit of planets, maybe a planet was outright blown to pieces for a shower of megaton asteroids, or maybe it’s a black hole moving in at great speed.)

We find out that we have some 10 to 20 years to make an escape.

Aren’t we lucky?

Midday

All we have to do is move all of humanity into space except those who cannot or will not move. Fortunately we have about ten thousand nuclear warheads lying around, which are no longer useful for their original purpose - that is blowing each other up -, but could be excellent for propulsion, putting really huge vessels into orbit. Background radiation and environmental concerns don’t matter as much at this point. There is some time to manufacture some more nuclear bombs, develop more efficient ways of using them, so we could eventually launch tens of thousands of ships into space. We would like to bring some things with us too, not as much as we could though, since people are priority, so no elephants or sculptures.

At the same time we can set up some serious operation on the Moon, build a few mass drivers, start constructing space habitats of the O’Neill cylinder variety - they are spacious tubular constructions that spin to create comfortable artificial gravity inside. Alternatively we could colonize the Moon and somehow move it out of the endangered region. Also we could do both the space habitat and Moon colony.

A planetary evacuation is costly, but then again a couple of decades worth of military spending, infrastructure building and maintenance, carbon dioxide credits have just become available for funding the great project. People need to be informed, prepared and moved into place in en masse. It’s the greatest undertaking of human history and we can cope all of it with our present technical capabilities.

Day One

Well, nobody expected the whole remaining humanity to fly by Voyager 1, but here we are. The new place is small but cosy. We watched the last spaceships leave and the big farewell party. Now we are on our own in space, gravely depressed for the loss we suffered. Most people lost loved ones on Earth, our planet is gone, our home, our country, history, art, and all the holy places too.

It’s a new life, with new rules. No fire outdoors, no shooting, absolutely no wars (unless we wish to go medieval), no cars. No rich or poor, no growth. Asteroid mining for profit, wiring money through light years, megacorporations, colonialist logic make no sense. Return on investment can wait a couple of centuries. It’s not a sci-fi social commentary metaphor with light makeups, it’s a lifeboat, where you don’t want eat one another.

Most aspects of society needs to be balanced and controlled. A number of things that we considered basic until now are no longer accessible in reality, however we can have them in virtual world. In fact we will probably need to matrix ourselves in an organized way to avoid a total mental breakdown of society. Some mercyful artificial intelligence may help us during and after the evacuation, supervising the efficient dissemination of knowledge, keeping up individual psychological composure.

We have now centuries before reaching another star system and with so much time on our hands and for lack of better things to do, humanity may turn to total spiritual rebuilding. Old religions were tied to our planet in so many ways, most of it had to be left behind, now we need to start anew, incorporate actual Earth-shattering events that went down, the human effort and emotions, integrate our new virtual life, and the holy reality our fleet is drags with itself into the cosmos.

Day Zero

In our cultural futurology thought experiment we now return to the day we find out about the impending doom. Are we better than dinosaurs?

As the news breaks, people realize they don’t really need to keep saving for their pension or pay mortgage. Shortly all stores of value go to zero, stocks, gold, money. General loss of focus and motivation follows. Some panic, some say they were right all along and then panic. Kingdoms fall, all power is lost. Now we are trying to save ourselves, while the whole society is racing down the slope of regression towards disintegration. Some systems, disciplined factions manage keep their act together and evacuate, losing a lot of time and life in the process, for a fraction of effect, meaning serious risk to their actual survival.

Even though societies may have various contingency plans, everyday operation includes the repression of the thoughts of doom and rightly so. Liberal democratic capitalism too is based on the repression of the fact that all turns to dust within an undefined period of time - emphasis on undefined. We need to distort our view of the future in order to be operational.

The good, the bad, and the ugly

What do we do now? You are a leader of your country in live video conference with your colleagues. The news is not out yet and you have two choices. One we call Suppression, the other Unity.

In the Suppression scenario we apparently decide on not letting the news of impending doom go public. The population is kept in ignorance, all available resources are channeled to the evacuation project, all work done behind the veil, until everything is prepared for a full disclosure. Benefits of this approach are: disorder avoided, stress delayed, with tolerable level of efficiency. Downsides are: depriving people of the knowledge is depriving them of pride of being part of the effort, resulting in tension, and the possible burden of those who could have been saved while mankind was kept asleep. The single biggest obstacle to overcome is suppression itself, not only because it eats into your resources, but because what you do involves masses of workers, heavy lifting and numerous nuclear detonations.

How about Unification? You decide to go ahead with the full disclosure. Tell people something like this: “Look, we have a hundred and fifteen months to leave the Earth. It’s terrible news but we can make it. We will work together and try to save every single person. The worst we can do is panic. So we need to carry on with life as if nothing happened. Which will be hard since everything is lost and nothing has value anymore. Only survival has real value, so right now we introduce a new global currency: evacuation karma coin or spacebuck (any odd name will suffice) which will be backed by the effort that goes into saving humanity. You might turn out to be too old, dead or otherwise unfit to leave when the time comes, but with the evacuation karma coin you will be able to save your family or anyone you choose. Learn something that will be useful off the planet, help and encourage your fellow men.”

Quite a sound bite there. We hope we didn’t misjudge mass psychology and the efficiency we gained by openness will not be negated by the insanity and anarchy induced by stress. Also we expect our newly invented emergency currency to soak up fleeing capital preventing total financial meltdown, even better: we use the momentum to turn from growth to post-scarcity.

Now, whether Suppression or Unity would produce better results is up for discussion. As a closure, for such an event I’m offering an opinion and a slogan. Whatever the decision will be, we should choose wisely what we try preserve from the Old World, lest we end up holding on to something in vain. And then our slogan shall be: We are no dinosaurs!