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Do We Have a Ceasefire? Or Will Other Nations Hand Iran a Nuke?

Philip C. Johnson - June 23, 2025

As of June 23, 2025, the Middle East is still a tinderbox, despite President Trump’s evening announcement of a “complete ceasefire” between Israel and Iran. Ceasefires in this part of the world are like cheap New Year’s resolutions; often broken by breakfast. With Iran’s nuclear program bruised, 400kg of enriched uranium on the loose, and whispers of Pakistan eyeing a nuclear handoff, let’s cut through the fog with a cynical squint.

U.S. Strikes: Fordow Obliterated? On June 21, U.S. B-2 stealth bombers unleashed 30,000-pound bunker-busters on Iran’s Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear sites, per Reuters. Trump boasted they were “obliterated.” Maxar imagery shows six craters at Fordow’s entrance, debris scattered like a warzone yard sale. Pentagon’s Gen. Dan Caine claims “extremely severe damage.” IAEA’s Rafael Grossi expects “very significant damage” but can’t confirm underground impacts; no radiation leaks have been detected.

Iran, true to form, peddles their own version of reality. State-run IRNA admits Fordow was hit but claims it was evacuated with minimal damage. MP Mohammad Manan Raisi calls it surface scratches, fixable. Iran’s atomic agency brags 400kg of enriched uranium (a heart-stopping amount) was moved pre-strike. X’s @osc_london notes Iran prepped Fordow’s tunnels prior to the U.S. strike, suggesting a tip-off. So, obliterated? Nope. Crippled? Likely. Staged for the news cycle? Obviously.

Iran’s Retaliation: Qatar and Israel Earlier today, the conflict continued with Iran launching missile attacks targeting Israeli cities. And, in a direct response to the U.S.’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Iran fired 15 missiles at Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base, a U.S. hub, per Reuters. Thankfully, there were no U.S. casualties. X’s @sentdefender calls Iran’s retaliation theater with Iran stretching its thinning arsenal for optics. And it certainly seems as if all of this was choreographed so that Iran’s leadership could retain a shred of dignity without forcing President Trump to respond, escalating the conflict. 

Ceasefire: Will It Hold? Trump’s “complete ceasefire” announcement tonight aims to cool tensions after Iran’s Qatar and Israel strikes. Israel and Iran reportedly agreed, but history screams skepticism. Ceasefires in this neighborhood often collapse under ego and ambition. Iran’s 400kg of unchaperoned enriched uranium looms like a rogue missile, ready to reignite chaos. I, like most others, are praying for peace. But time will tell. 

Pakistan Nukes for Iran? Gossip, Not Gospel No evidence backs claims of anyone slipping Iran a nuke, but Pakistan’s name keeps popping up. PM Shehbaz Sharif, after talks with Iran’s President Pezeshkian, slammed U.S. strikes as “illegal” on June 22, per PBS, despite nominating Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize. X’s @MarioNawfal says this shows diplomatic cuddling, but not nuclear deals. Mahyar Tousi on Tousi TV links Pakistan’s Iran sympathy to anti-Western gripes but doubts they’d court global suicide. Tim Pool’s June 22 podcast notes Pakistan’s nukes are U.S.-monitored. Iran’s proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas, are battered, and Pakistan is not suicidal.

Global Games Russia and China decry the U.S. strikes as illegal. Turkey bashes Israel but winks at Iran. Saudi Arabia and UAE quietly cheer the U.S. and Israel for doing their dirty work. And Europe pleads for calm, per the BBC. Nobody’s openly offering Iran nukes. Not yet.

At the End of the Day… Fordow’s limping, not dead. Iran is posturing but low on ammo. Pakistan’s sympathetic, not insane. Trump’s ceasefire is a gamble - his base hates endless wars, but Iran’s 400kg uranium wildcard could blow it all up. Nobody wants a nuclear Iran, except Iran, who’s playing a high-stakes game. The world watches, popcorn ready, as the Middle East prepares for its next episode in a drama series nobody really wants to watch. But we’ve already watch season one, so, we’re sort of committed. 

Source: Do We Have a Ceasefire? Or Will Other Nations Hand Iran a Nuke?