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audreygcblog · 2 years

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Origins of Judith

Who is Judith?

For those of us who were not brought up in the Roman Catholic Church, Judith is a long forgotten book that has been excluded from biblical canon for hundreds of years. As someone brought up in a baptist church, I was always fascinated by the women in the Bible. Esther, Ruth, Mary Magdalene, etc.; these were the women that showed me that, despite the patriarchal world, women are still powerful and important. This is why I was so surprised to find out that I had no idea who Judith was even though she was a powerful woman in the Bible.

The Book of Judith is the story of Judith, a Jewish woman, who uses her virtue and beauty to infiltrate the camp of Holofernes. Holofernes is the commander of King Nebuchadnezzar's army which has laid seige on the Jewish people. He believes he is able to seduce Judith and leads her to his chamber whilst he gets very intoxicated. Once in a deep, drunken sleep, Holofernes is decapitated by his own sword at the hands of Judith. She returns to her city, Bethulia, carrying the head of her victim. Now, with the motivation provided by the death of their enemy's leader, the Jewish community defeated the Assyrian army.

It's a fantastic story! A woman kills a man by cutting off his head in his sleep and returns back to her people as a military heroine. Except, I have read this somewhere before. And not just anywhere, but in the same collection of stories.

Judith or Jael?

As previously mentioned, most protestant bibles and most biblical scholars consider the Book of Judith as not canon, but why? As the biblical scholar J. Edgar Bruns explains, "The most curious fact of all relative to the book of Judith is that it's compelling heroine would be completely unknown to us but for this book which bears her name....How is it possible that Jewish history has remained silent about her save for the deuterocanonical book which the Jews themselves do not accept?" (Bruns, 12). To answer this question, the most popular idea is that Judith is simply a tale inspired by the story of Jael in the Book of Judges.

Historically, the Canaanites, under King Jabin and his general Sisera, oppressed an apostate Isreal. When the Isrealites met that Canaanites near the Kishon River for open battle, a cloudburst caused the river to flood. General Sisera fled the battle and while searching for refuge, found a Kenite tent belonging to Jael. Jael, although she was not an Isrealite, supported them and invited Sisera inside her tent. She gave him milk, supposedly fermented, and he soon fell into a deep slumber. Grabbing a tent peg, Jael rammed through Sisera's head, and ended the threat of the Canaanites.

The similarities between the stories of Judith and Jael connot be ignored. Both stories are set during a time when the Isrealites are at war. Both women end the war by killing the general of the enemy's army by beheading or bashing in their heads. Seems like something unlikely to just be a coincidence.

Upon further research, I discovered that the story of Judith contains anachronisms like the fact that Holofernes is a Persian name which would have been too modern of a name for the setting that Judith is set. Other anachronisms include city names, calling the Babylonian king Nebuchadnezzar "king of the Assyrian", the absence of Samritans in the Samaritan city of Bethulia, and the mixture of Greek, Babylonian, and Persian names.

So, if Judith is not even a true story of the Jewish faith, why does the Book of Judith even exist?

A Motivation

Bruns notes in his scholarly writing about the origins of Judith that the Jewish community would have known heroic tales such as the story of Jael well. It is not hard to believe that someone or multiple people decided to apply the story of Jael to their current situation.

At the time that Judith was approximately written, a Jewish colony in Elephantine were being threatened by the growing hostility of their Egyptian neighbors. Perhaps Judith was written as encouragement or motivation for the Jewish community. The changing of the names would have due to the fact that Sisera was an Egyptian name and the Jewish did not want to make such an obvious proclamation of the enemy. The name Judith, obviously coming from the word Jew.

Due to all these reasons, Judith is commonly agreed among scholars to be a retelling of Jael that was shaped to fit the current political climate.

Why Does Judith Matter?

I cannot speak for everyone, but, as Christian woman, having representation of strong women in the Bible was and remains very important for me. Christianity is still is infested with the patriarchal system that controlled the religion for centuries.

As a little girl, I was always drawn to women like Esther and Mary Magdalene who showed God holds women as just as high of importance as men. I made it my personal mission to learn as much as I could about women in the Bible as I could, so the fact that I had only recently heard of Judith as shocking.

The speculation surrounding the truth of the story of Judith worries me. This is exactly the kind of situation in which men can and will take the opportunity to dismiss the story and say a woman could never win a war and save her people. However, I think it's important to acknowledge that Judith is, in fact, based on Jael who DID save the Isrealites and won a war.

Discussion of Judith is a great opportunity to bring up the achievements of Jael and even other women of the Bible who are frequently dismissed or overlooked in the church.

Conclusion

After reading about the history of the stories of Judith and Jael, I hope I encourage those of you reading this to do further research on the history of women in the Bible. Women winning wars, saving their people from certain doom, and becoming some of Jesus's closest companions is something extremely impactful for women and it's time they stop being overlooked.

References

Bruns, J. Edgar. “JUDITH OR JAEL?” The Catholic Biblical Quarterly, vol. 16, no. 1, 1954, pp. 12–14. JSTOR, http://www.jstor.org/stable/43720563.

"Biblical literature." Britannica Academic, Encyclopædia Britannica, 26 Feb. 2021. academic-eb-com.libproxy.eku.edu/levels/collegiate/article/biblical-literature/110574#73272.toc.

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fanfoolishness · 6 years

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i’ll be your winter coat

Also for @restlessbluebird, who requested Min Hawke x Varric x cloudburst from this prompt list! Title is a line from The Postal Service’s “Brand New Colony,” which has been in heavy rotation lately as it’s on my Hawke x Varric playlist.

I’ll be your winter coat

Buttoned and zipped straight to the throat

With the collar up so you won’t catch a cold

They nearly lost their packs in the sudden cloudburst, water torrenting down the canyon at a terrifying pace. Min had gone against her instincts, noting that angry smudge of dark grey in the sky; she’d pressed onward instead of sheltering in place, hoping to see Kirkwall again for the first time in a very long time.

Instead her haste had nearly cost her everything. The water had almost swept them away, and as it was, they were both thoroughly drenched. Luckily she and Varric had been able to scramble out of the path of the main flow, but it had been a very narrow call, and still the rain did its best to drown them.

“I can’t believe that’s what almost killed us. After everything else that’s nearly killed us, that would have been a pure disappointment,” roared Hawke above the downpour. The water hit so hard it almost hurt, and she found herself gasping for breath sometimes, trying to breathe past the water that curtained over her face and nostrils. She spat out a mouthful of it and wiped her eyes, then reached down and grabbed Varric by the hand. “Come on, let’s see if it’s a bit better on the other side of the hill,” she hollered, pulling him around the slope of the rocky crest.

“If I get swept out out to sea, Hawke,” he shouted, “you have to tell everyone I was battling at least a dozen seadragons. And there were mermaids fighting over me. And that a sea serpent fifty feet long got me in the end. Can you do that for me?”

“Of course, what do you take me for --” she yelled, and just then, just as abruptly as it had come, the cloudburst was over. Only a mere trickle of rain still fell, and Min had a moment to release a sigh. “Oh, what a relief,” she said in a normal voice. “That’s better. How are you, dear?”

“I’m -- oh, shit.” Varric pulled his hand away from hers and patted down his jacket, a look of mild curiosity on his face growing to one of concern. He patted down his pockets again in a second circuit, slipping his hands into each one and feeling around. The look of concern intensified, his hazel eyes narrowing, his mouth tightening. “Uh... I’m fine, Sparrow. Just wondering if I’ll be sprouting mushrooms any time soon, that’s all.”

Hawke shook her head. “No, you’re worried about something. I can tell.” The rain sprinkled on her head, a disconcerting sensation after the constant pressure of the cloudburst’s moisture.

He hesitated. She could see the calculations spinning in his head, the urge to lie or simply stretch the truth warring with the fact he never lied to her about anything that mattered. “I may have lost something,” he said carefully, averting his eyes.

“Oh no,” she said, bending to his height and checking his pockets for herself. He tried to bat her away, but she was too quick, hands darting beneath his. “What was it? Something small, I suppose. A new pen? One of the nice Orzammar ones with the fancy mechanisms I know how much you like those for writing --” Her hand slipped into his last pocket, and her fingers closed over a small box. “Was it a box?”

“That’s a surprise!” he yelped, brushing her hands out of his way. She leaned back, her grip tight on the box. A dull red flush crept up his cheeks. She stared at him in bafflement. He never got this flustered, except --

She stared down at the little box in her hand. Small and cunning and beautifully carved. A jeweler’s box.

“Oh,” she said faintly. “A... surprise?”

Varric gave her a crooked grin, rubbing the back of his neck with one hand. “Uh... yeah.” He took a deep breath, then reached out and took her hand between both of his. She stared at him in mingled excitement and nerves.

She took comfort in the fact that he sounded nervous too, his voice cracking much more often than normal. “Wasn’t planning on doing this just now, but shit, why not. When you know, you know, right? And I know. I’ve known for a long time how damn happy you make me.” He squeezed her hand, his thumbs tracing anxious circles over the back of her palm, and looked up at her.

Suddenly the nervousness was gone, and he simply looked happy, content, assured. He smiled, the crows’ feet at the corners of his eyes deepening, and he opened the little box nestled in her hand. Within was a gleaming red stone mounted in the center of an intricate golden band. She glanced at the ring, but couldn’t take her eyes off of him -- the way he grinned, the way he gazed. Maker’s breath, but she loved him so.

Varric was confident, now, the words coming more easily. He pressed a soft kiss to her fingertips. “I love you, Min. And I want to keep telling you, whether it’s in Kirkwall, or Orlais, or a cloudburst, or fuck, the Fade. If you don’t mind hearing it, that is. So if that’s fine with you... will you marry me?”

The rain chose that moment to explode again, water pouring in vast buckets over them. Before the gold ring with the red stone could be swept away, Hawke shoved it onto her finger, then formed a fist, grinning. “Rain won’t get that one, then,” she laughed over the sound of the weather.

“Is that a yes?” Varric bellowed. “Or are you just holding onto that for me?”

She bent to kiss him, their mouths colliding in a splash. She pulled him against her, the rain drumming against them, and shouted, “I love you, Varric! Of course it’s a yes!”

And his arms around her felt like the only protection she needed from the storm.

#hawke x varric #varric x hawke #varric tethras #hawke #dragon age: inquisition #min hawke #da:i #fluff #ehehehehe

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trekkinginpakistan · 4 years

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New Post has been published on Trekking in Pakistan

New Post has been published on https://trek.pk/faisalabad/

Faisalabad

Faisalabad (Urdu: فیصل آباد‎; English: /fɑːɪsɑːlˌbɑːd/), formerly known as Lyallpur, is the third-most-populous city in Pakistan, and the second-largest in the eastern province of Punjab. Historically one of the first planned cities within British India, it has long since developed into a cosmopolitan metropolis. Faisalabad was restructured into city district status; a devolution promulgated by the 2001 local government ordinance (LGO). The total area of Faisalabad District is 5,856 km2 (2,261 sq mi) while the area controlled by the Faisalabad Development Authority (FDA) is 1,280 km2 (490 sq mi). Faisalabad has grown to become a major industrial and distribution center because of its central location in the region and connecting roads, rails, and air transportation. It has been referred to as the “Manchester of Pakistan”. As of 2013, GDP (PPP) of Faisalabad was estimated as $43 billion and projected to rise to $87 billion in 2025 at a growth rate of 5.7%. Faisalabad contributes over 20 percent to Punjab’s GDP and has an average annual GDP (nominal) of $20.5 billion. Agriculture and industry remain its hallmark.

Toponymy

Faisalabad district actually began as Lyallpur district in 1904 and prior to that, it was a tehsil of Jhang district. During the British Raj in colonial India, the city of Lyallpur was named in honor of the then Lieutenant-Governor of Punjab, Sir James Broadwood Lyall, for his services in the colonization of the lower Chenab Valley. The surname Lyall was joined with the noun ‘pur, meaning ‘city’ in Sanskrit. In 1979, the Government of Pakistan changed the name of the city from Lyallpur to Faisalabad (‘City of Faisal’) in honor of King Faisal of Saudi Arabia, who made several financial contributions to Pakistan.

Location

Faisalabad lies in the rolling flat plains of northeast Punjab, at 186 meters (610 ft) above sea level. The city proper comprises approximately 1,230 square kilometers (470 sq mi) while the district encompasses more than 16,000 square kilometers (6,200 sq mi). The Chenab River flows about 30 kilometers (19 mi), and the Ravi River meanders 40 kilometers (25 mi) to the southeast. The lower Chenab canal provides water to 80% of cultivated lands making it the main source of irrigation. Faisalabad is bound on the north by Chiniot and Sheikhupura, on the east by Sheikhupura and Sahiwal, on the south by Sahiwal and Toba Tek Singh and on the west by Jhang.

Geology

The district of Faisalabad is part of the alluvial plains between the Himalayan foothills and the central core of the Indian subcontinent. The alluvial deposits are typically over a thousand feet thick. The interfluves are believed to have been formed during the Late Pleistocene and feature river terraces. These were later identified as old and young floodplains of the Ravi River on the Kamalia and Chenab Plains. The old floodplains consist of Holocene deposits from the Ravi and Chenab rivers.

Climate

The average annual rainfall is approximately 615 millimeters (24.2 in). It is at its peak in July and August during monsoon season though western disturbances during winter months also bring considerable rainfall associated with hail. Monsoon season which starts in July and ends in September brings heavy rain to the city causing flash flooding. If the monsoon currents interact with the western disturbance, then cloudbursts can also occur. July is the wettest month of the year during which flooding is reported a number of times. Monsoon ends in September and then the dry period begins. October and November are the driest months with very little rainfall. During winter the weather usually remains cloudy associated with frequent fog. Record-breaking rainfall of 264.2 millimeters (10.40 in) was recorded on 5 September 1961 by the Pakistan Meteorological Department. The temperature of the city has reached a summer maximum record temperature of 48.0 °C (118.4 °F), which was observed on 9 June 1947 and again on 26 May 2010. Extreme minimum temperature of −4.0 °C (24.8 °F) was recorded on 15 January 1978. The highest wind gust ever recorded in Faisalabad occurred during a severe dust-thunderstorm on 2 June 2000, when the maximum wind speed reached 151 kilometers per hour (94 mph).

Transportation

Faisalabad is well-connected by rail, road and air. Public transportation in Faisalabad includes auto-rickshaws, buses and railways. Faisalabad International Airport is located on the outskirts of the city, and operates flights to the Middle East.

Culture

Faisalabad, the third most populated metropolis in Pakistan after Karachi and Lahore is an epicenter for trade that has gained popularity for its colonial heritage sites. In 1982, the Government of Punjab established the Faisalabad Arts Council, a division of the Punjab Arts Council which is overseen administratively by the Information, Culture and Youth Affairs Department. The Faisalabad Arts Council building, designed by architect Nayyer Ali Dada, was completed in 2006. The auditorium was named after the late Nusrat Fateh Ali Khan, a Pakistani musician, and singer.

Sources: Wikipedia

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windamerehotel · 5 years

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Windamere Highlights

'Road is hilly, Don't be silly' was the advice by the roadside as our Nepali driver safely negotiated yet another hairpin bend and yet another pothole on the way up to the old Himalayan hill station of Darjeeling. Its tea gardens are still flourishing, its Planters Club is still there (though not flourishing), the air is fresh at 7,000 feet and for India relatively clean.

We had come here principally in the hope of seeing the great Himalayan peaks at sunrise, and in particular Mount Kanchenjunga, at more than 28,000 feet India's highest mountain. Having arrived in Darjeeling in a cloudburst, we wondered whether a prayer to a Hindu god (which one?) might increase the prospects of clear weather at dawn the following morning. Meanwhile, it was time for tea.

In Daisy's music room at the Windamere Hotel (endearingly so spelt), there are cucumber sandwiches for tea. The bread, of course, is white, crusts cut off, and the cucumber peeled and thinly sliced, with a little white pepper added. We are also offered homemade muffins and a lemon sponge cake. Around the walls of the music room are framed photographs of King George VI and Queen Elizabeth, and a picture of Rupert Brooke with his words about a foreign field that is forever England.

For ever English the Windamere may be, but it is now run by a Tibetan family who, among other accomplishments, have perfected the art of making cucumber sandwiches — the equal, at least, of any to be found at the other Windermere Colonial Hotel in the Lake District. In case any uncouth European or American travellers should decide to take tea at the Windamere, a notice on the mantelpiece asks visitors 'not to take off their footwear, or put up their feet on the furniture, or lie supine on the hearth, or sleep behind the settees, lest unintended offence be given to others'. Quite so.

Fires were lit in the bedrooms before dinner (vegetable soup and roast chicken), hot water bottles put in the beds, and we were woken with what in India is called 'bed tea' at 3.15 the following morning. A 20-minute drive in a jeep brought us up to Tiger Hill, above the village of Ghoom, where we hoped to see the mountain reveal itself at around 5.30. There was a sharp frost and a starry sky; but would there be cloud covering the high tops?

Huddled together on a wooden platform, almost all our fellow mountain-watchers were Indian. There was a collective gasp as the outline of Kanchenjunga, and the range of peaks on either side, slowly became visible, icy white against the dark sky. Then a blob of pink appeared on the summit of the great mountain. Rosy-fingered dawn had broken at 28,000 feet. It was spectacular, breathtaking and surprisingly affecting.

Now the area of pink was expanding, the rising sun appeared, away to our right, and soon the mountain was bathed in a creamy-orange glow. The whole panorama of peaks was now alight, while the valleys below remained in cold blackness. The morning was so clear that we were even able to see the top of Mount Everest nearly 100 miles away. But it looked rather unimpressive, at that distance of course much smaller and lowers than our mountain. In the state of Sikkim, to which the heights of Kanchenjunga belong, the mountain is sacred and no one may climb to the summit. It is not only majestic but, unlike Everest, undefiled.

By about 6.30, as our driver said, the show was over, and we knew that porridge and eggs and bacon would be waiting at the Windamere Colonial Hotel. Later that morning, a collar of cloud appeared below the summit of the mountain; but it was still looking magnificent as we left Darjeeling for Kalimpong, east towards Bhutan and beyond the Tista river which flows from the Himalayas into Bangladesh.

Kanchenjunga also dominates the landscape around Kalimpong, though we were now viewing it from a few thousand feet below Darjeeling. A school, Dr Graham's Homes, is almost as much a part of the Kalimpong scenery, standing on a hill above the town. It was founded by a Scottish missionary in 1900 for orphaned Anglo-Indian children, and today educates and looks after well over 1,000 students.

Having admired the extensive school grounds and the Anglican church, we took a last look at the mountain, imperious against the sky, and began our descent to the plains. How lucky we had been: a cyclone was forecast to hit west Bengal, clouds were gathering, and Kanchenjunga would not show itself again for several days.

Source: http://www.windamerehotel.com/sacred-heights.aspx

For more: http://bit.ly/2PcQglp

#colonial hotels in Darjeeling #best heritage hotel in Darjeeling #colonial hotels in india #heritage hotels in Darjeeling #heritage hotel in Darjeeling

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brookstonalmanac · 7 years

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Events 6.16

363 – Emperor Julian marches back up the Tigris and burns his fleet of supply ships. During the withdrawal Roman forces suffered several attacks from the Persians. 632 – Yazdegerd III ascends to the throne as king (shah) of the Persian Empire. He becomes the last ruler of the Sasanian dynasty (modern Iran). 1407 – Ming–Hồ War: Retired King Hồ Quý Ly and his son King Hồ Hán Thương of Hồ dynasty are captured by the Ming armies. 1487 – Battle of Stoke Field, the final engagement of the Wars of the Roses. 1586 – Mary, Queen of Scots, recognizes Philip II of Spain as her heir and successor. 1745 – War of the Austrian Succession: New England colonial troops under the command of William Pepperrell capture the Fortress of Louisbourg in Louisbourg, New France (Old Style date). 1746 – War of the Austrian Succession: Austria and Sardinia defeat a Franco-Spanish army at the Battle of Piacenza. 1755 – French and Indian War: The French surrender Fort Beauséjour to the British, leading to the expulsion of the Acadians. 1774 – Foundation of Harrodsburg, Kentucky. 1779 – Spain declares war on the Kingdom of Great Britain, and the Great Siege of Gibraltar begins. 1795 – Cornwallis's Retreat, also known as the First Battle of Groix. 1815 – Battle of Ligny and Battle of Quatre Bras, two days before the Battle of Waterloo. 1836 – The formation of the London Working Men's Association gives rise to the Chartist Movement. 1846 – The Papal conclave of 1846 elects Pope Pius IX, beginning the longest reign in the history of the papacy. 1858 – Abraham Lincoln delivers his House Divided speech in Springfield, Illinois. 1858 – The Battle of Morar takes place during the Indian Mutiny. 1871 – The University Tests Act allows students to enter the Universities of Oxford, Cambridge and Durham without religious tests (except for those intending to study theology). 1883 – The Victoria Hall theatre panic in Sunderland, England kills 183 children. 1884 – The first purpose-built roller coaster, LaMarcus Adna Thompson's "Switchback Railway", opens in New York's Coney Island amusement park. 1891 – John Abbott becomes Canada's third Prime Minister. 1897 – A treaty annexing the Republic of Hawaii to the United States is signed; the Republic would not be dissolved until a year later. 1903 – The Ford Motor Company is incorporated. 1903 – Roald Amundsen commences the first east-west navigation of the Northwest Passage, leaving Oslo, Norway. 1904 – Eugen Schauman assassinates Nikolay Bobrikov, Governor-General of Finland. 1904 – Irish author James Joyce begins a relationship with Nora Barnacle and subsequently uses the date to set the actions for his novel Ulysses; this date is now traditionally called "Bloomsday". 1911 – IBM founded as the Computing-Tabulating-Recording Company in Endicott, New York. 1922 – General election in the Irish Free State: The pro-Treaty Sinn Féin win a large majority. 1925 – The most famous Young Pioneer camp of the Soviet Union, Artek, is established. 1930 – Sovnarkom establishes decree time in the USSR. 1933 – The National Industrial Recovery Act is passed. 1940 – World War II: Marshal Henri Philippe Pétain becomes Chief of State of Vichy France (Chef de l'État Français). 1940 – A Communist government is installed in Lithuania. 1944 – At age 14, George Junius Stinney, Jr. becomes the youngest person executed in the United States in the 20th century. 1948 – Members of the Malayan Communist Party kill three British plantation managers in Sungai Siput; in response, British Malaya declares a state of emergency. 1955 – In a futile effort to topple Argentine President Juan Perón, rogue aircraft pilots of the Argentine Navy drop several bombs upon an unarmed crowd demonstrating in favor of Perón in Buenos Aires, killing 364 and injuring at least 800. At the same time on the ground, some soldiers attempt to stage a coup but are suppressed by loyal forces. 1958 – Imre Nagy, Pál Maléter and other leaders of the 1956 Hungarian Uprising are executed. 1961 – Rudolf Nureyev defects from the Soviet Union. 1963 – Soviet Space Program: Vostok 6 Mission: Cosmonaut Valentina Tereshkova becomes the first woman in space. 1972 – The largest single-site hydroelectric power project in Canada is inaugurated at Churchill Falls Generating Station. 1976 – Soweto uprising: A non-violent march by 15,000 students in Soweto, South Africa turns into days of rioting when police open fire on the crowd. 1977 – Oracle Corporation is incorporated in Redwood Shores, California, as Software Development Laboratories (SDL) by Larry Ellison, Bob Miner and Ed Oates. 1981 – U.S. President Ronald Reagan awards the Congressional Gold Medal to Ken Taylor, Canada's former ambassador to Iran, for helping six Americans escape from Iran during the hostage crisis of 1979-81; he is the first foreign citizen bestowed the honor. 1989 – Revolutions of 1989: Imre Nagy, the former Hungarian Prime Minister, is reburied in Budapest following the collapse of Communism in Hungary. 1997 – Daïat Labguer (M'sila) massacre in Algeria: Fifty people die. 2000 – Israel complies with United Nations Security Council Resolution 425 22 years after its issuance, which calls on Israel to completely withdraw from Lebanon. Israel does so, except the disputed Shebaa farms. 2010 – Bhutan becomes the first country to institute a total ban on tobacco. 2012 – China successfully launches its Shenzhou 9 spacecraft, carrying three astronauts, including the first female Chinese astronaut Liu Yang, to the Tiangong-1 orbital module. 2012 – The United States Air Force's robotic Boeing X-37B spaceplane returns to Earth after a classified 469-day orbital mission. 2013 – A multi-day cloudburst centered on the North Indian state of Uttarakhand caused devastating floods and landslides becoming the country's worst natural disaster since the 2004 tsunami.

#Events

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brajeshupadhyay · 4 years

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Coronavirus Outbreak: Why do grey rhino events reoccur? What important policy shifts are required? — Part 4

Grey rhino events happen all the time and everywhere. A few of the recent grey rhino events are—the 9/11 World Trade Centre bombings in New York in 2001, the 2020 Australian Bush fires, the 2008 global financial crash, the 2018 extreme rainfall event in Kerala, the 2009 swine flu. There were warning signs before each of these events; some were loud, and some were faint. We failed to hear or heed them. And each time a grey rhino lowered its head to charge, we beguiled ourselves into believing that it was only a threat and a charge will not happen. And after each charge, we paid a heavy price in the form of high death tolls, and loss of business and property.

The gap between risk and human perception of it

Human perception of risk is how humans—as individuals, organizations, and governments—subjectively assess the probability of a risk-bearing event happening. It is usually at variance with actual risk, i.e., the probability of a risk-bearing event happening. Human response to risk is driven by the human perception of risk, and not risk itself.

When risk from an event is low, human perception usually fixes it at an even lower level, consequently humans under-respond to the risk such an event poses, e.g., most smokers believe that their level of tobacco consumption will not harm them, and continue smoking. When risk is high, human perception tends to over-estimate risk and over-respond to the event, particularly if they feel that the risk is so high that death is imminent. For example, when the Bhopal gas leak happened, many persons abandoned their families and fled. Fear for their personal lives was so high that their family members no longer mattered.

Risk perceptions and responses are sometimes baffling and go contrary to trends. The Ersama super cyclone had a risk of 5,000 in a million (5000E-6) chance of death, considered as a high-risk. Yet, Odisha government’s sluggish action was due to its perception that the Ersama cyclone is likely to be of low intensity like the Ganjam cyclone that hit Odisha 10 days before the former.

In August 1994, Surat was struck by the ‘plague.’ It was a low-risk event with a mortality rate (5E-6) that was a thousand times smaller than that of the Ersama cyclone. Yet, fear of the plague caused an exodus of half million people from Surat. And that fear was not confined to Surat. A Delhi-based scientist who worked with the National Centre of Communicable Diseases, visited Surat to study the plague. When he returned home from Surat, he found that his home had no water or electricity. His neighbours had cut them to drive him out of their colony for fear that he carried back the plague. A family that fled Surat and sought shelter with friends in Thane district in Maharashtra was murdered by a neighbour for the same reason.

Risk perception is influenced by public memory which often is based on the experience of a few events. Public memory is short. In the last hundred years, India has seen several epidemics, but they have slipped from public and government memory. India lost almost 40 percent of 50 million persons who died in the 1918 Spanish flu, the largest number of deaths from any country that was hit by this pandemic. The Spanish flu contributed to an anti-British sentiment in India as this disease was brought to India by Indian soldiers who fought in World War 1 in Europe as part of the British army. But the British showed little care for India’s plight. Yet, there is little mention of the Spanish flu in Indian history.

Risk response is driven by economic status, culture, and a society’s belief in its ability to control the course of events. The confidence with which Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea fought the coronavirus is due to their experience and success in battling the SARS and other epidemics, and the knowledge that they have a robust public health-care system.

Altering risk behaviour

To mitigate risk, it is not material whether risk or human perception of it is greater. What matters is the gap between the two. The larger the gap between them, the more difficult it is to alter human behaviour to the risk and consequently mitigate risk.

Though India was aware of the Wuhan outbreak for a month before the first Indian case was reported end-January, the Indian government woke up to coronavirus risk only in mid-March. They had under-assessed the coronavirus risk and are under-prepared for it, just as they had the under-assessed risk of numerous grey rhino events that have occurred in the recent past—1984 Bhopal gas tragedy, 1999 Ersama cyclone, 2001 Bhuj earthquake, 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, 2005 extreme rainfall event in Mumbai, the 2009 Kedarnath cloudburst 2015 extreme rainfall event in Chennai, 2018 extreme rainfall event in Kerala, 2018-19 heatwaves in India. The loss of life in these events ranges 500-50,000. The Machlipatnam cyclone is a rare success story of an impending disaster being successfully averted. India’s preparedness in disaster management is rather poor.

Attempts to reduce risk through rules, laws, legislation, curfews, fines, campaigns, and other administrative methods do little to alter human behaviour to risk unless accompanied by programmes geared to alter risk perception. For example, campaigns to wear car seat belts and helmets by 2-wheeler riders have been unsuccessful in India.

For an effective risk response, perceived risk should ideally converge actual risk. Such convergence can be achieved best through the active involvement of risk bearers in risk mitigation programmes. There is then a strong case for community participation in risk mitigation. The strength of such a programme is the community’s readiness to tackle risks they perceive as important. In the weeks after the Surat plague ended, communities in Surat cleaned up their neighbourhoods without help from the municipal corporation.

Risks are tackled at four levels—local, national, regional, and global. Dehydration can be tackled at the local level with oral hydration therapy. Extreme weather events such as the 2018 heavy rainfall event in Kerala, can be tackled at the state or the national level by preparing emergency response plans and conducting mock drills in communities. The Asian Brown Cloud requires cooperation in the South Asian region. And the ozone hole in the atmosphere needs global cooperation.

Unlike most other hazard issues, COVID-19 must be tackled at all four levels. Interestingly, the coronavirus war is making South Asia foster regional cooperation again.

Prioritizing profits for business over reducing risk for people

In the early-1990s, Surat was a boomtown riding the globalization wave. It became the world’s biggest diamond cutting and polishing centre because of its skilled and cheap labour. Diamond cutting business owners became millionaires overnight. But Surat neglected basic city sanitation. Filth floated in heaps all over town and Surat earned the dubious distinction of being named the filthiest town in Western India. The Surat plague caused Gujarat to state huge financial losses.

The Surat plague was a consequence of prioritizing profits for businesses first over reducing risk for all people. The COVID-19 pandemic is also a result of this global outlook.

Transmission dynamics

To win the coronavirus war, it is important to understand its transmission pathways. Early information from a study being done by virologists in Heinsberg, the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak in Germany, tell us that major COVID-19 outbreaks resulted from close gatherings over longer periods. Spread happened in Gangelt, a village in Heinsberg after an infected couple were at a carnival there in February; in Italy, after crowds gathered to watch football matches in Bergamo; and in Austria at the Ischgl ski resort.

There is little evidence to say that transmissions occurred through contaminated surfaces. The Heinsberg researchers swabbed doorknobs, mobile phones, toilets, remote controls, and other surfaces and found evidence of the virus on the swabs, but could not replicate the virus in a laboratory, i.e., the remnants of the coronavirus on these objects were no longer infectious.

Virologist Hendrick Streeck, the principal investigator of the Heinsberg study, said in an interview to The Guardian, “On the basis of our findings we’ll be able to make recommendations, It could be that the measures currently in place are fine, and we say: ‘Don’t reduce them.’ But I don’t expect that I expect the opposite, that we will be able to come up with a range of proposals as to how the curfews can be reduced.”

The Federal Institute for Risk Assessment (BfR) emphasises that infection through contact with ‘contaminated objects’ has not yet been proven. Initial findings also indicate that that the chances of transmission in supermarkets, restaurants and hairdressers appears to be low.

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A trickle of information from Wuhan points a finger in the same direction. The WHO report on the Wuhan outbreak states, “In China, human-to-human transmission of the COVID-19 virus is largely occurring in families.”

Virus transmission dynamics are contextual. While Heinsberg and Wuhan transmission dynamics may have takeaways for India, the dynamics in India needs to be understood. Being a big and diverse country, transmission dynamics may vary across the country. Consequently, disease control need not be a “one size fits all” strategy, which is what has been the thinking so far.

It is necessary for the government to explain its understanding of the transmission dynamics of coronavirus and justify its disease control strategy in that light.

Did lockdowns help?

For the last 3-4 weeks about a third of the world’s population is under some form of lockdown—local or national. Have lockdowns helped ‘flatten the curve?’ Are they more effective than other measures?

Most countries locked down when case numbers rose to high levels. India locked down when case numbers were low. A comparison of select countries that locked down and others that had not locked down but had controlled the disease (see Box 8) indicates that:

Locked down countries had a case per day growth rate mostly in double digits (7.8-17.5 percent). The high case growth rate in Germany is due to their extensive testing and detection of cases.

Despite a 4-week lockdown, India’s case growth rate for the lockdown period is 13.6 percent per day.

India’s high case growth rate during lockdown indicates that community transmission had started some time ago.

Transmission within the family may be a more important route for COVID-19 spread in India than was understood earlier.

Consequently, physical distancing, wherever possible, is an important mitigation measure.

Countries that did not lockdown but controlled the case growth rate started doing NPI early and implemented them strictly.

Countries in this sample that did not lockdown had a case growth rate largely in single digit (3.7-14.7 percent). The higher case growth rate of South Korea is attributed to extensive testing.

The NPIs generally followed by the non-locked down countries are extensive testing and surveillance, physical distancing, sanitizing, case isolation, contact tracing, quarantining suspect cases, use of personal protective equipment by health care and other personnel.

Based on the limited data from the sample of locked down and non-locked down countries presented in Box 8, the hypothesis that can be drawn is that:

Countries that acted early and adhered strictly to NPIs were able to control case growth rates without necessarily having to resort to disruptive lockdowns.

Countries that locked down generally started doing NPIs late.

Lockdowns, particularly after case growth gains momentum, have not been particularly successful in controlling case growth rates.

If India’s current case growth rate persists till May-end, there will be about 50,000 cases by April-end, 4 lakhs by mid-May, and 3 million by end-May. These numbers may move upward or downward depending on the disease control strategy changes India makes after 3 May, and how successfully they are.

Good practice case studies

Two Indian examples stand out for the outstanding work they did to control COVID-19 spread — Kerala at the state level and Bhilwara at the district level.

The growth of cases during the lockdown period, 25 March-24 April for India and Kerala were 13.6 and 4.8 percent, respectively. How did Kerala reduce COVID-19 spread? When Wuhan happened, the Kerala government knew that the coronavirus would come to Kerala through students from the state studying in Wuhan. Their experience with the Nipah virus taught them to start preparing early, so they began planning in January.

When COVID-19 cases were first detected end-January, Kerala responded by testing aggressively for early case detection. At 610 tests per million population, Kerala’s test rates stand at one and a half the Indian average today. Kerala did painstaking contact tracing, longer quarantine periods, building thousands of shelters for stranded migrant workers, and distributing millions of cooked meals. To gain public support the Kerala government actively communicated with people, without which they could never have succeeded in doing early case detection and intense surveillance. They even planned evacuation routes for newly detected cases such that the patients had minimum contact with people along the way. The government made people their eyes and ears, and the partnership between the government and public helped to fight the coronavirus. Kerala is a model for the rest of the country.

Bhilwara, a textile town located in southeast Rajasthan, reported its first COVID-19 case on 19 March. This soon ballooned into 27 cases. Bhilwara district borders were immediately sealed, and four private hospitals and 27 hotels were commandeered by the district administration to accommodate cases. Between 22 March and 2 April, 22.4 lakh people were surveyed by nearly 2,000 health teams and 14,000 persons with flu-like symptoms were put on a watch list. The surveillance was relentless with visits to some houses made twice daily. Aggressive testing and contact tracing were done to identify cases. About 1,000 persons were put into quarantine centres and another 7,500 were home quarantined. On April 2, a complete lockdown was declared, and no one could step out of the home. Cooked food was supplied to the poor, and fodder was distributed for cattle. The outbreak was quickly controlled.

The lessons from Southeast Asian countries that were successful in controlling virus spread are like those from Kerala—prepare early, and follow WHO’s mantra ‘test, treat, trace’ aggressively. Hong Kong, Singapore, and South Korea did 30-50 times more testing per 1 million population than India has done (see the table in Part 2 of this article). These three countries along with Taiwan and Vietnam did not declare a national lockdown. Testing, case detection and isolation have a strong influence on ‘flattening the curve.’ South Korea was so confident of winning the coronavirus war that it even held national elections on 15 April when 44 million masked and gloved voters went to the polls to elect 300 representatives to the National Assembly.

India’s options to beat COVID-19

A vaccine for COVID-19 is 12-18 months away. A lockdown will not stop the spread of COVID-19. It can only slow it down. Lockdowns merely provide a little breathing space for preparing for the next move.

The lockdown in India has been extended from 15 April to 3 May and in some states a little beyond that. What will India do after 3 May? India has only two options until a vaccine becomes available or coronavirus weakens.

The first option is to do repeated lockdowns (suppression strategy) when case numbers rise after a lifting a lockdown as populations do not acquire herd immunity in a suppression strategy.

Repeated lockdowns will further disrupt the economy and cause enormous stress to people, particularly to unorganized sector labour, the self-employed, and farmers. It will also keep the supply chain of goods and services broken, which could then trigger an economic slowdown. A health crisis could develop into an economic and humanitarian crisis of a huge magnitude, with the possibility of a rise in hunger, malnutrition, and disease, resulting in possible hunger deaths and suicides.

The second option is to adopt a mix of mitigation strategy measures (physical distancing, sanitizing, case isolation, quarantining suspected carriers, aggressive testing, widespread surveillance, closing educational institutions) for the entire country, and using localized suppression strategy (localized lockdown) wherever hot spots appear. It is a mix of what is being done in Kerala and what was done in Bhilwara.

This approach allows the general population to develop herd immunity. It also gives the battered economy a fighting chance to recover and provide income to unorganized labour, self-employed and farmers. But the number of cases will rise, though more slowly. And there will be attrition. A small fraction of the cases will turn critical and require intensive care. And if the health delivery system is not ramped up sufficiently, the numbers of the critically ill who may not get adequate medical attention will rise. Mumbai is already running out of ICU beds.

Since the Indian workforce is relatively young, the risk of serious illness is low. But the vulnerable sections of the population — over-65-year olds and those with co-morbidities must be protected from exposure to the coronavirus. Doing this will test India’s ingenuity.

Partnering with people

A lot that may happen in the coming critical months will depend on the disease control choices that government takes. If government adopts the second option, which can control COVID-19 as well as avert a humanitarian and economic crisis, it can be implemented effectively only with public support.

For that, government must be more forthcoming with information and become more transparent in its actions by holding public consultations on issues like virus transmission dynamics, lockdown triggers, and the pros and cons of different mitigation strategies. The government should also become more inclusive in its decision making by co-opting the public into decision-making bodies.

The chances of winning the war against coronavirus increase if government emulates the Kerala model and makes people an equal partner instead of treating them as pawns to be locked down at government’s will and without offering an explanation.

Future challenges

Climate change is a more daunting challenge than coronavirus. The average global temperature rise is now 1.1oC above pre-industrial times. In 2015 governments of the world agreed that warming should be restricted to 1.5-2oC. The United Nations Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap Report 2019” (EGR2019) indicates that to remain under the 1.5oC redline, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions must reduce by 7.6 percent per annum for the next decade. But GHG emissions are currently growing at 1.5 percent per annum, and at the current warming rate, we will cross the 2oC redline in about 2 decades and be 3-4oC above pre-industrial times by the turn of this century.

A 3-4°C warming will cause frequent extreme weather events; alter precipitation patterns; raise sea levels by ~1-2 m by 2100; create millions of climate refugees; shrink glaciers and reduce the Arctic sea’s ice extent; cause food and water shortages, increase hunger, deprivation, malnutrition, disease and poverty; degrade and destroy forests and biodiversity and decrease water, timber and other ecosystem services they provide; cause a sixth mass species extinction; cause loss of employment; disrupt the world’s social and political order, and trigger social conflict.

Climate change impacts will be slow and almost invisible initially but will grow exponentially, like the way COVID-19 cases grew. Without downgrading the priority given to the profits for businesses first outlook and upgrading the reducing risk for all people outlook, the impending climate change challenge cannot be met.

Food, water, health, and environmental security at the global level

For a risk minimization programme, people need three basic securities: food and water security, health security for natural and manmade risks, and environmental security.

In 2018, the United Nations (UN) spent approximately 15.1 percent of its budget on food security, 7.1 percent on health security and one percent on environmental security. The UN has three organizations for food (WFP, FAO, IFAD) security, three organizations for health (WHO, PAHO, UNAIDS) security and one organization for environmental security (UNEP). It has no dedicated organization for creating water security or doing risk mitigation.

If food and water, health, and environmental securities are to be boosted, the UN must set up a dedicated organization for risk mitigation and another for water security and must readjust its US$ 53-55 trillion budget to boost spending on these three securities from the current allocation of 23 percent of its budget to 30 percent, and which may be increased by two percent each year until these three securities together get 50 percent of the UN’s budget in time.

Like climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic is a global problem and can be best solved through global cooperation. The South Asian countries have realized this and are discussing possible collective action in the war against the coronavirus.

Food, water, health, and environment security should become fundamental rights in India

Three sections of Chapter IV: Directive Principles of State Policy of the Indian Constitution deal with certain aspects of food, health, and environmental security (see Box 9). These directive principles should now be re-framed to make food and water security, health security from natural and manmade risks, and environmental security to become fundamental rights for Indian citizens. Guaranteeing these rights and delivering them is the state’s fundamental duty. Without these rights, the right to life can only mean a right to physical life and not social life.

The 2020-21 budgeted expenditure of the union government is Rs 30.4 lakh crores. Of this approximately 12.5 percent is for food and water resources (Agriculture, cooperation & farmers welfare; Food & public distribution; Fisheries; Animal husbandry & dairying; Water resources; Drinking water & sanitation) 2.4 percent is for health (Health & family welfare; Health research; AYUSH; Pharmaceuticals) and (0.1 percent) is for the environment. Fifteen per cent of the budget, i.e., Rs 4.56 lakh crores, has been allocated for ministries and departments concerned with food and water, health, and environment.

A ministry or department must be setup for risk mitigation and another for water security. To guarantee food and water security, health security and environmental security to Indian citizens, the union and state governments must allocate 30 percent of their budgets for these securities. The budget allocation for these securities may be increased by two percent each year until they become 50 percent of the union and state governments’ budgets in time.

The Economic Survey of India, 2020 states that India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was Rs 202.5 lakh crores in 2018 and estimates it to be Rs 217.5 lakh crores in 2019. The survey expected a 6-6.5 percent GDP growth in 2020-21, i.e., a growth by Rs 13.6 lakh crores. After the COVID-19 outbreak, the GDP growth rate for 2020-21 has been pared down to 1.9 percent to -2 percent. The loss to the economy will range Rs 9.5-18 lakh crores.

Allocation of 30 percent of the union budget, i.e., Rs 9.1 lakh crores for food and water security, health security and environmental security is less than the lower end expected loss in GDP growth (Rs 9.5 lakh crores) and half the higher end loss in GDP growth (Rs 18 lakh crores). Even if the 30 percent allocation budget of the state and union territory budgets is added, this investment is well worth as it would more than compensate for the loss of income and additional expenses that COVID-19 caused lakhs of families. The personal loss to families that lost lives cannot be measured in monetary terms.

More importantly, an investment in people’s welfare will move India towards becoming a nation that cares for its people, particularly its poor and vulnerable, and not be a nation that merely boasts of becoming a US$ 5 trillion economy by 2025. In the final analysis, is it not better to be a nation where we feel cared for rather than be a nation with a wee bit more money but with a dog-eat-dog attitude?

Box 8: Case growth rate, hospital beds, doctors in countries that had locked down and countries that did not and hospital beds and doctors - add

Country 1st case reported dt Progression of measures Computation start dt Computation end dt No of days in this computation No of cases- computation start No of cases-computation end Growth rate of cases/ day (%) Hospital beds/1000 population

Doctors/1000 population

World 17Nov Mixed 25 Mar 24 Apr 30 422,940 2,834,697 6.3

Countries that lockdown - add table

Doctors/1000 population

India 30Jan 30Jan-24Mar-Limited progressive restrictions, 25Mar-13Apr National lockdown 25 Mar 24 Apr 30 536 24,530 13.6 0.7 0.76 Iran 18Feb 18Feb-3Mar-No restrictions, 4Mar-1Apr-Lockdown 4 Mar 1 Apr 28 2,336 44,605 11.1 1.5 1.49 UK 30Jan 30Jan-21Mar-No restrictions, 22Mar-1 Apr-Lockdown 22 Mar 1 Apr 10 5,018 25,150 17.5 2.5 2.83 France 22Jan 22Jan-8Mar-No restrictions, 9-17 Mar National recommendations, 18Mar-1Apr national lockdown 18 Mar 1 Apr 14 7,730 52,128 14.6 6 3.24 Italy 30Jan 30Jan-18Feb-No restrictions, 18Feb-13Mar-Local lockdown, 14Mar-1Apr National lockdown 14 Mar 1 Apr 18 31,506 105,702 7 3.2 4.02 Spain 4Feb 4Feb-10Mar-No restrictions, 10-15Mar-National recommendations, 16Mar-1Apr-National lockdown 16 Mar 1 Apr 16 7,988 95,923 16.8 3 3.87 Germany 25Jan 25Jan-13Mar-No restrictions, 13-17Mar-Local recommendations, 17-19Mar-Local lockdown, 19Mar-1Apr-National lockdown 19 Mar 1 Apr 13 12,327 71,808 14.5 8 4.19

Countries that did not lockdown

Doctors/1000 population

South Korea 20Jan 20Jan-21Feb- No restrictions, 22Feb-1Apr- No lockdown. National recommendations-Widespread testing and contact tracing 22 Feb 8 Apr 35 209 10,156 11.7 12.3 2.33 Taiwan9 21Jan 21Jan-21Mar No restrictions, 22Mar-1 Apr National recommendations 22 Mar 8 Apr 17 153 379 5.4 Hong Kong9 23Jan 23Jan-8Feb- No restrictions, 9Feb-1Apr- National recommendations 16 Feb 8 Apr 53 56 961 5.5 Singapore9 23Jan 23Jan-7Mar- No restrictions, 8Mar-1Apr National recommendations 8 Mar 8 Apr 62 138 1,623 4.1 2.4 2.28 Vietnam 20Jan 20Jan-12Feb-Nno restrictions, 13Feb-3Mar- Local lockdown, 4Mar-26Mar No restrictions, 27Mar-14Apr National recommendations 27 Mar 14 Apr 18 163 266 2.8 2.6 0.82 Japan 16Jan 16Jan-20Feb- No restrictions, 21Feb-1 Apr National recommendations 22 Feb 1 Apr 49 109 2,178 6.3 13 2.37 Sweden 30Jan 30Jan-11Mar- No restrictions, 12Mar-1Apr- National recommendations 12 Mar 1 Apr 20 500 4,435 8.8 2.2 4.19 Norway 21Feb 21Feb-13Mar- National recommendations, 14Mar-1Apr-Local lockdown 14 Mar 1 Apr 18 996 4,641 8.9 3.6 4.38 USA 18Jan 18Jan-17Mar- No restrictions, 18Mar-24Apr- Local lockdown 17 Mar 4 Apr 38 4,596 925,758 15 2.8 2.57

Box 9: Sections from the Chapter 4 Directive Principles of the Indian Constitution

41. The State shall, within the limits of its economic capacity and development, make effective provision for securing the right to work, to education and to public assistance in cases of unemployment, old age, sickness and disablement, and in other cases of undeserved want.

47. The State shall regard the raising of the level of nutrition and the standard of living of its people and the improvement of public health as among its primary duties

48A. The State shall endeavour to protect and improve the environment and to safeguard the forests and wildlife of the country

The author is an environmental engineer with specialization in risk analysis