#did I removed Simon's team name on his cap.... yes I did

[marcelskittels]

SIMON CLARKE & LUKE PLAPP ‹ Giro d'Italia 2024 - Stage 8 › 📸 by Marco Alpozzi/LaPresse

[cecilspeaks]

117 - eGemony, part 1: “Canadian Club”

The suffocation of the ego.   The eternal silence of the void. Faceless, yet screaming. And now serving orange wine on tap.

Welcome to Night Vale. 

Listeners, we have a new sponsor! Our show is brought to you by – money. When purchasing items, please consider using money. It’s exchanged universally in place of transactions with actual value. Money is available in handy ones, fives, sixes, eights, and now twenties. [very fast] Money may be habit forming, symptoms may include (avarice) [0:03:21], lack of introspection and, frequent substitution of the phase “intelligent” for “wealthy”. Please ask your doctor if money is right for you and nod with considerable vigor when your doctor asks if you think money will complete you.

We have a visitor who I’m just now learning about. I’ve been handed a note by my new intern Gustav. Gustav says Station Management has ordered him to bring this guest immediately to the studio. Gustav, are you missing an eye? Uh, Gustav is nodding. OK. Uh, let’s see. The note says, it says to please welcome... Oh. What?! Wow! I mean, WOW! Gustav, is this real? OK, it is my honor and my privilege to welcome to the show – Hugh Jackman.

Hugh: Hi!

Cecil: Wait you’re not the Hugh Jackman, right?

Hugh: I like to think I am.

Cecil: Yeah, you’re not.

Hugh: But my children think I’m the real Hugh Jackman, so..

Cecil: Your children are wrong. But go on Mr Hugh Jackman.

Hugh: My name is Hugh Jackman, and-

Cecil: [muttering] Hmm but not the Hugh Jackman.

Hugh: Here’s my card.

Cecil: Oh. Hugh’s business card is a hologram he’s projected straight into my fingers. Says he’s the senior vice president in charge of “dreamfluencing” at.. ee-Gemini?

Hugh: It’s pronounced “ee-Gemonee”.

Cecil: Oh so it sounds just like he-

Hugh: I’m here to solve a funny little mystery. I just need to uh, open my briefcase here. Take a look at this.

Cecil: Oh, well that’s a Playboy magazine.

Hugh: Yes! December 1969. It had the pictorial on Bond girls in case you don’t remember.

Cecil: Oh I can see that. Ooh and there’s also a feature on architect Mies van der Rohe.

Hugh: I’ll take your word for it, Mr Palmer. I only read Playboy for the advertisements like this one: the one for Canadian Club.

Cecil: OK uh listeners, Mr Jackman is showing me a full page ad that features six people hiking in dense-looking woods, and two of them are carrying a sling of some sort and in the sling is-

Hugh: A case of Canadian Club whiskey!

Cecil: Uh huh. Um the headline reads, “On October 13, 1969, we hid a case of Canadian Club deep in the Amazon jungle. Here’s how you can find it.” Oh let’s see! Well this is actually quite entertaining, there are clues and maps and, is that an acrostic?

Hugh: It is an acrostic, very good Mr Palmer! It’s a clue to where the case was buried. Now from 1967 to 1973, Hiram Walker Distilled Spirits TBA Canadian Club ran a contest where they hid 21 cases of Canadian Club whiskey throughout the world, from the densest alleys of Jakarta to the skyscrapers of Manhattan, the cable car tracks in San Francisco, on cobblestoned streets in London, under 30 feet of water on the Great Barrier Reef. They ran ads with clues about how to find them, and find them the people of the world did! Every single case was recovered.

Cecil: That’s remarkable.

Hugh: Mr Palmer. We hid a case under the ice caps of the North Pole, and people found it. we dropped one on Mount Everest..

Cecil: [clears throat, mutters] Mountains. So why do you think people wanted to find them so badly?

Hugh: As far as we can tell, it has to do with people’s desire to have alcohol. Ironically, it sank the contest. People weren’t buying Canadian Club. They figured that it was way cheaper and more fun to get a yacht and sail to the Cayman Islands and snorkel under the security fences of the International Monetary Fund and then you know like, remove a case from the International Monetary Fund’s Mom’s poolside refrigerator, and that’s exactly what happened to case number 17. So sales plummeted, but later, Hiram Walker merged with (--) [0:07:21], which was acquired by Bacardi Constellation brands, which is now an acquisition of our little tech startup, eGemony!

Cecil: Now excuse me but what does eGemony do?

Hugh: We dreamfluence!

Cecil: [long beat] …Got it.

Hugh: It turns out there’s one further case of Canadian Club. It’s been hidden for over 40 years. Right here in Night Vale! Here’s the ad. This is the November 1973 issue of Playboy. Go on, read it.

Cecil: Um, “on August 30, we hid a case of Canadian Club in Night Vale. Here’s how to find it.” But, Mr Jackman, the rest of the ad is blank.

Hugh: We at eGemony after some internal discussion, believe that might be why the case was never found. There seems to have been some kind of event at the printers that month. Fran Lebowitz’s interview with progressive rock band Yes keyboardist Rick Wakeman is perfectly fine for its first 37 pages, but then devolves into a series of umlauts. Little Annie Fanny, generally a lighthearted and [chuckling] adorably misogynistic comic strip, was just panel after panel of…

Cecil: ..umlauts.

Hugh: And Mr Palmer, look at the pictoral on men’s golf pants.

Cecil: Aaaagh…

Hugh. Yeah.

Cecil: Ooooooooh.

Hugh: I know, we’re not really sure what happened there. Further, you’ll see that every cartoon has the same punchline.

Cecil: Oh yeah. Uh, here’s a bride on her wedding day and her mother is telling her… “It’s under Cecil’s desk”?

Hugh: Same punchline is on page 33 with the desert island, and page 74 here with the cowboys at the saloon.

Both in unison: “It’s under Cecil’s desk”!

Cecil: That is so odd! So Mr Jackman, why does eGemony want to find his case of liquor?

Hugh: We thought it would be.. fun. Can I look under your desk?

Cecil: Why?

Hugh: The case is under your desk.

Cecil: Yeah, but this desk wasn’t even here in 1973.

Hugh: So you’re telling us - me - no?

Cecil: Well I’m telling you to ask Station Management.

Hugh: Oh, I will!

Cecil: I-I-I mean they’ll make you fill out a form, and they can also create fire with their minds. Also they’ve eaten people before for way less. Hey Gustav? Gustav, come in here and show Hugh what Station Management did to your eye.

Hugh: Oh my!

Cecil: Oh God..

Hugh: That is disgusting.

Cecil: Ugh, it’s getting wor- [gags] OK, that’s enough Gustav.

Hugh: Oh. I am prepared. [ahem] I’m familiar with your Station and Management and not afraid of them. Eunice, Lily, Agatha, DeMarcus and Chad, old friends of mine.

Cecil: Who?

Hugh: Have you never learned the names of your supervisors, Mr Palmer? You need a team building retreat. I’ll be back. You haven’t seen the last of me.

Cecil: Yeah well you aren’t even the real Hugh Jackman!

I don’t trust that man. I need to figure out what to do next. We’ll be back after this.

[serene voice] Life is meaningless. There are no guiding principles, nor rewards, nor punishments for how to live. Just flashes of pain or joy, which are only neurotic messages, not actual experiences. Even pondering why we exist is a rudderless journey. So consciousness is a means to no end. The Sheriff’s Secret Police would like to acknowledge that hearing this will ruin your day.

However, they are further authorized to announce that nothing we have heard about nature describes a process that occurs without purpose. We can point to a fish’s fin and understand what function it serves. A monkey’s fur, a starfish’s many arms. The acorns in your uncle Simon’s branchy beard that explode outward as stabbing bristles whenever uncle Simon experiences fear. They all serve a purpose. So it’s possible that consciousness developed for a reason larger than consciousness itself can conceive of. The function of your mind is literally beyond comprehension. Which means that awareness, pursued to its limits, only makes you aware of your helpess ness. You are without power in this life. Except when you purchase items by using – money. This has been brought to you by – moneyyy.

We are back and – I’m in a jam. I mean I don’t trust this “Hugh Jackman” nor his company. I mean after what StrexCorp did to our town, I’m a bit wary of any business conglomerate. Although eGemony does seem different, friendlier. But what is this thing with looking under my desk? I’m not sure I should even look under my desk, I mean what if I find it? what if I don’t find it?

Every time I’v ehidden under my desk, I’ve closed my eyes and for good reason! I’m so distracted I lost my notes and now I don’t even know what the news was supposed to be! And Gustav went to go by some cotton balls and anti-bacterial spray for his missing eye. Um.. [rustles papers] Well, I mean honestly I’ve never really looked at any of these magazines before. I mean, Playboy was for other boys and girls. Uh, interesting. Listeners, did you know that Playboy magazine has a bunch of pictures of women across various careers with in-depth profiles on their lives? I did not know this. yeah there’s a whole pictoral on this issue of all the women who have ever played James Bond, in full costumes! Oh my god, look at these smart tuxes and pistols and one of them’s on a motorcycle!

In the middle of a magazine, there’s even a foldout photo of a woman in coveralls and a hard hat, leading a volunteer construction crew who’s building houses in a hurricane-ravaged Nova Scotia. Oh, and on the other side of the foldout, there’s a Playmate questionnaire. Let’s see, her turnoffs include “impatient people and tick bites”. You know, I agree with that. And her turn-ons include “groovy people, good food, overwhelming feelings of dread, chanting, and all hail the Glow Cloud”. All hail the Glow Cloud! Yes! Uh, the playmate’s name is Missy Wilks. Missy Wilks?! Could that be the Missy Wilks who lives over on Kestrel Street here in Night Vale? I mean, they do have similar eyes and tendrils. I wonder if it’s possible that she knows where the case of Canadian Club is? Well let’s see. [dials] M-I-S-S-Y-W-I-L-K-S.

[phone signal]

Missy: Hello?

Cecil: Hello, is this Missy Wilks? This is Cecil Palmer from the radio station. It’s a little hard to explain why I’m calling but-

Missy: Have you looked under your desk?

Cecil: Oh, not yet. Should I? I mean I kind of don’t want to.

Missy: Cecil. I’ve been waiting for this phonecall for over 40 years. You must look under your desk. The future of Night Vale depends on it.

Cecil: Have you been doing anything else?

Missy: Pardon?

Cecil: 40 years.

Missy: Well, no not really. Raised a family. Shot a guy once. But you’re stalling, Cecil.

Cecil: I’m not stalling! Bu-but you know, we really should get to today’s weather.

["Lost Everything" by Mary Epworth]

Cecil: And we’re back.

Missy: Have you looked under the de-

Cecil: No, I’ve not looked under my desk!

Missy: Come – on -, Cecil!

Cecil: Wait, why does Mr Jackman want this so badly?

Missy: Ugh! It’s why they put cases everywhere on the planet! They knew that leaving an item in place long enough allows it to absorb the spirit of the area. That case is now infused with the soul of Night Vale. No one actually recovered those other cases. eGemony recovered them after they bought all the other parent companies of Canadian Club. They’re going to send out one of their corporate prize contestant sweepstakes buzz marketing street teams to dreamfluence anyone who stands in their way. If eGemony finds it before you do, they will drink Night Vale’s soul, the same way they’ve drunk the soul of all the other cities!

Cecil: Wait, that makes no sense! They’ve recovered a bunch of these across the world. Are you saying that Manhattan, San Francisco, London, the Great Barrier Reef and the Cayman Island don’t have souls anymore?

Missy: Cecil.

Cecil: Oh my god, you’re right. OK then, alright, I’m going to look. I am looking under my desk. And I am findiiing.. nothing. I, there’s nothing under here!

Missy: Mm?

Cecil: Wait, wait wait wait wait wait wait oh, oh, oh, oh, oh wait put – a pushpin! A red one! And it-it’s holding an envelope to the underside of the desk!

Missy: Is it manila?

Cecil: Yes! And it’s addressed to me. There’s a letter inside. It’s written on papyrus and you can tell it’s very old because it’s written in cursive. It says: “Dear Cecil how are you? We are fine. We’re sorry we didn’t write earlier, but we were unlearning our destinies. We had to unlearn so many things. Small steps, then larger ones, then larger until we were almost flying, but not quite flying because we had to unlearn our expectations and then unlearn our limitations, so we gave up on flying. Because that turns out not to work regardless of your expectations and no matter what you unlearn. So we relearned what we needed to. we’ve relearned so many essential things, Cecil, about work and love and complaining about work and love and – oh! And we took the case of booze! If you wanna find us, you’ll know us by our sign.” And then it’s signed with a smear of foam. No wait, this isn’t just any foam it’s – hold on! [sniffs] [tastes] Cappuccino!

Oh my goodness, I have to tell Ms Wilks that..

Missy: I’m still here.

Cecil: Oh! Miss Wilks! I know where the case of Canadian Club is!

Missy: Where?

Cecil: It’s in the cave lands outside of town. It’s been taken by the baristas!

Missy: Cecil! This is the worst possible news! The baristas are no match for buzz marketing street teams. The baristas are gentle people, soft of spirit and jolly of countenance, whose dreams are only influenced by the purest of the loves, not crowd sourced manipulations. The baristas are rosy-cheeked and innocent! They gamble like lambs, Cecil! You’ve got to warn them!

Cecil: OK, I will, I will. Thank you, Miss Wilks! Listeners, this is terrible, I-I-I don’t know what to do! I don’t like warning people about things, I mean warnings lead to consequences and we all know how much I avoid consequences. In fact, there’s only one way to be thoroughly insulated from consequence and – that’s to accumulate enough money. But I don’t have any money. As Station Management recently switched their payroll protocol from cash to Twitter followers and Groupons for local spas, so I’m kinda screwed.

Think, Cecil, think. Think think think think think.

Stay tuned next to the sounds of chewing amplified to the threshold of pain.

Good night, Night Vale, Good night!

Today’s proverb: People always say “before I die”, as if they haven’t already begun the process. 

[thrashermaxey]

Forum Buzz: Has Laine Peaked?

  Welcome to the first edition of “Forum Buzz,” a column where I dissect some of the most popular recent threads from the DobberHockey Forums. Pretty much everything within the forums might be covered here, with the exception of trades (since those get their own separate write-ups on the site and are usually also covered in the next day’s Ramblings) and signings (since those tend to be covered in Alex McClean’s weekly Capped column). With that out of the way, let’s dive right in!

  Topic #1 – What to do about William Karlsson?

When Karlsson came out of nowhere to post top tier fantasy numbers last season, most poolies figured he’d have a hard time equaling that success for 2018-19. But by the same token, they likely believed his output wouldn’t drop as much as it has. In the forum thread, the discussion centered on the players for whom Karlsson could be traded; but before turning to that question, we need to be able to determine if the “real” William Karlsson is what we’re seeing this season so far, what we saw last season, something in between, or perhaps something better than the 2017-18 version or worse than the 2018-19 version.

  Unfortunately, unlike with most players, we can’t really focus on Karlsson’s outputs from seasons before his breakout 2017-18 campaign, since his role was so different. The exception is IPP or the percentage of points he received on goals scored while he was on the ice since if a player is talented he should have a high IPP regardless of his point total. In Karlsson’s case, his previous full season IPPs were 60.6% and 58.5%, which are not very good for a forward and pale in comparison to his 70.6% from last season. That being said, his IPP this season is still a relatively healthy 67.9%, which at least is one positive sign. But a high percentage of points scored means a lot less if one’s presence on the ice doesn’t lead to goals, and sure enough Karlsson’s 5×5 team shooting percentage last season was a high 10.62%, yet this season it’s a somewhat low 7.37%. Based on this data, I’d probably say the “real” Karlsson might lie closer to what we’re seeing from him for 2018-19.

  While past results don’t automatically apply to present circumstances, let’s also look at other forwards who, like Karlsson and since 2000-01, had 43+ goals and 78+ points in a season by age 25. A total of 15 other forwards met these criteria, with none having failed to again score 66+ points in another season, but four (Jonathan Cheechoo, Simon Gagne, Thomas Vanek, Jeff Carter) failing to post 78+ points in another. So this is good news for Karlsson owners, yes? Maybe not, as everyone else who was on the list had at least 229 SOG in the season where they met the criteria, versus Karlsson’s 181 last season.

  The lowest SOG total from any of the 15 players was Thomas Vanek, whom I think might be the closest comparable to Karlsson, as Vanek was a top-six fixture yet still had a somewhat up and down career and never had 250+ SOG in a season. Some might try to compare Karlsson to Cheechoo, who quickly flamed out; however, that was a case of someone doing well by virtue of playing wing on a line with – and thus riding the coattails of – arguably the top NHL player at the time in Joe Thornton. Karlsson doesn’t fit that bill and seems cut more from the Vanek cloth. The only wrinkle with the comparison is Vanek received more ice time – especially on the PP – than what Karlsson will get, at least as long as Karlsson is playing in a Gerald Gallant system; so whereas Vanek went on to produce 60-70 points most seasons, Karlson might land closer to 60.

  Long story short, I’d use 55-65 points per season as a likely output from Karlsson in future campaigns, with a better chance at going above 65 than below 55. Chances are you can buy him for a lower price than that, while if you’re trying to sell good luck since you’ll likely run into doubting Thomases.

  Topic #2 – Is it reasonable to question whether we’ve already seen the best from Patrick Laine?

Part of what makes the forums so much fun is that “hot takes” can turn into serious discussions. In this thread, for example, names like Nail Yakupov, Alexander Daigle, and Nikita Filatov – each of whom made a splash but quickly faded – were mentioned as possible comparables to Laine. Before dismissing this as ludicrous, consider how ludicrous it must’ve been to think that those three players (especially Yakupov and Daigle) would see their careers not pan out long term after starting off so strong. Could Laine be at risk of being a fantasy fire that is extinguished after burning so bright to start? Let’s see what the data tells us.

  First off, Laine scored 36 goals as an 18-year-old, with Sidney Crosby being the only other player to do so since 1990-91. Moreover, even if Laine doesn’t score another goal this season, he’ll already have more than 100 by age 20. To stress how remarkable that is, since 1990-91 two other players accomplished that same feat – Ilya Kovalchuk (106 goals) and Steven Stamkos (119 goals). Not only that, but both of them did so while playing over 4500 total minutes, whereas Laine will be lucky to break the 4000-minute mark given his deployment.

  So that means he’s golden, right? Maybe; or maybe not. If we go back a couple of seasons further than 1990-91, we see the case of Jimmy Carson, who had 186 points (92 goals) as a teen then 100 more points (49 goals) at age 20…………….before never again scoring 74+ points and being out of the NHL by age 27. Can we liken Laine to Carson? It’s hard to say; but Carson’s fate certainly makes for a negative comparison, which is just as relevant as the positive comparisons to the accomplishments of the likes of Kovalchuk, Stamkos and Crosby.

  As for Laine’s metrics, both his 5×5 team shooting percentage and IPP dropped last season as compared to his rookie campaign and are on pace to drop again this season. While to some degree that means bad luck could be hurting his output, it also does concerningly call into question his effort level. On a positive note, his SOG rate is higher than in any past season, which cuts against him not trying as hard. And despite recently being removed from PP1 perhaps to send him a message, his share of PP minutes is still at 69.2%, so clearly the team values him with the man advantage.

  If I’m a Laine owner, I’m worried. As much as the Stamkos, Kovalchuk and Crosby comparisons are a relief, the Carson comparison is off-putting. Winnipeg is winning despite Laine’s struggles, so the team doesn’t need to bend over backwards to appease him, especially with another young talent like Nicolaj Ehlers, Kyle Connor and Jack Roslovic putting forth the effort – and stats – expected of them. My advice would be if you own Laine you should hold and hope, but I wouldn’t trade for him if his owner expects to get elite value in return – the risk is too great.

  Topic #3 – In a trade, what’s a fair return for Erik Karlsson now?

When you have a player who’s a UFA to be, it’s never easy to place a present value on him since in most cases he could see his value rise or fall depending on where he signs. With Karlsson, however, I think we’ve seen from this season he can be counted on for elite production no matter where he lands, as after a bit of a shaky first couple of months in San Jose he’s turned his season around and played at his usual elite level. In fact, he’s done so well that the question becomes whether that’s occurring now because he’s on a team with another top fantasy d-man in Brent Burns, or whether he’d likely do better going back to being a team’s true #1 rearguard. Let’s look at the numbers.

  For 2018-19, Karlsson’s share of PP minutes is right around the average of what it was the last two seasons in Ottawa, but his overall ice time is down by roughly two minutes from his average over the previous five seasons despite seeing the second highest percentage of minutes on the PK of his career. Despite this, his SOG rate is on pace to be the second highest of his career and his PPPt rate the highest. The result of all this is Karlsson sitting at his usual 70+ point production rate, which I think is the big key to focus upon – to wit, Karlsson is a player who finds a way to produce at his customary rate no matter how he’s used. And at age 28, he’s poised to still stay at an elite level for years to come.

  Given this, what do I think a fair return for Karlsson would be? The forum thread focused on draft picks in a 16 team dynasty league, and I tend to agree with respondents from the thread that getting picks for Karlsson is a bad idea. He’s simply too good and too far above what is considered very, very good for a fantasy d-man for any package of picks to be worthwhile. In fact, short of receiving a top-five netminder or a guaranteed 90+ point younger forward in return, plus perhaps another pick or player as a kicker, Karlsson likely should never be packaged as part of a trade.

  Topic #4 – Is Juuse Saros worth trading for Martin Jones, to try and win now?

In keeper leagues, there are always factors in evaluating trades beyond just how skilled players are. Of these, perhaps the most important is whether you’re in win-now mode or rebuilding, plus how the player's involved figure to factor into their teams’ plans in the near to not so near future. With these things in mind, many Saros owners have been waiting patiently for him to become the #1 goalie on a Nashville team seemingly poised to succeed for many years to come. Prior to this summer, Saros inked a deal for $1.5M per season through 2020-21, while Pekka Rinne, coming off one of his best seasons in 2017-18, was extended – also through the 2020-21 campaign – at $5M per season.

  Going purely by the numbers, this shows Nashville expects Saros to be the back-up. That being said, Rinne will be 37 years old next season, and no age 37+ netminder has played 40+ games since 2013-14. Moreover, since 2010-11, there are a mere two instances of age 37+ goalies who won 30+ games. As such, despite his fatter contract, Rinne might end up ceding the net to Saros prior to 2020-21.

  As for Jones, he just turned 29 and is signed to a contract, which, in terms of amount ($5.75M per season) and duration (through 2023-24) demonstrate the team considers him their top guy, yet also not so high as to exert significant pressure on those who own him in cap keeper leagues. Moreover, in view of his contract, stats, and the lack of near term elite goalie prospects for the Sharks, Jones’ starting job is likely among the most secure in all of the NHL, which in today’s fantasy hockey landscape is far, far less common than it used to be. In terms of how the Sharks compare versus Nashville, on paper they’re an older team which could have trouble playing at the same level in another season or two.

  My take on the situation is I’m parting with Saros to get Jones. For one, even if Rinne fades, he’s still signed for two more years and likely will factor into the picture enough for Saros to put up worse overall stats than Jones for those two years. We also can’t be sure that Saros will be a great goalie once he’s “the guy”, as for all the netminders (like Jones) who were back-ups and then seized the reins once they were given a chance to be a starter, there are far more who faltered. With Jones, you know what you’re getting, which is a solid tier 2 netminder with a stranglehold on his starting gig; and that’s worth moving Saros for not just to win now but also to reap the benefits of Jones for years to come.

  ********

Questions needed for Mailbag column

As a reminder, I’m always seeking questions for my monthly mailbag column, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions. Please continue to send me your questions either by private messaging them to me (rizzeedizzee) via the DobberHockey Forums or by sending an email to admin@dobbersports.com with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line. My inaugural mailbag column will run two weeks from today, after next week’s tournament/poll.

  from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/fantasy-hockey-rick-roos/forum-buzz-has-laine-peaked/