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When international aid agency Doctors Without Borders took over management of the COVID-19 treatment center at a hospital in the Yemeni city of Aden on May 7, one of the immediate challenges was convincing cleaners, porters, and even some of the hospital’s doctors that the novel coronavirus existed, and could make them sick.

“After years of war, after years of having no proper services, people in general don’t trust what the media says, and they don’t trust the authorities,” the center’s deputy project co-ordinator Mohammed Abdulrahim told TIME by phone from Aden on May 24. “At the beginning, we had medical staff getting sick. They had direct contact with patients without taking precautions like putting on masks—they just treated it like a normal disease.”

Staff misperceptions of COVID-19 were just one of the obstacles Abdulrahim and his team faced. Before Doctors Without Borders (MSF) took over the al-Amal facility’s management there was no dedicated ambulance for coronavirus patients, and a political dispute meant Yemen’s government had stopped paying staff salaries, leading to a wave of resignations. Three weeks into its tenure, dire shortages of PPE and oxygen remain, and dozens of MSF staff are off sick in Aden.

The frontline medics at al-Amal are just a handful of the people struggling to prop up a healthcare system devastated by more than five years of war. After Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other Arab nations intervened to drive Iran-backed Houthi rebels from Yemen’s capital Sana’a in 2015, Yemen’s civil conflict has left more than 100,000 people dead, displaced millions, and led to what the U.N. calls the world’s worst man-made humanitarian crisis.

Now, the coronavirus is here and spreading silently through the country. Although testing is almost non-existent, doctors at the only dedicated COVID-19 treatment center in Yemen’s south say they are struggling to cope with a 40% mortality rate and a growing caseload of patients. “The team is under permanent stress with staff missing or not trained enough,” Marc Schakal, MSF’s deputy operations manager for Yemen tells TIME by phone from Dubai. “There are very difficult clinical decisions to take for the doctors to make: We are obliged to set admission criteria based on age and chances of survival at the end.”

As harrowing as conditions are inside the treatment center, MSF doctors believe they are seeing “just the tip of the iceberg,” Shakal says, “We are really worried about much older people who are not able to reach the center, and who are dying in the community.”

“We don’t have visibility on the epidemiological curve”

Yemen’s official coronavirus caseload, among the lowest in the Middle East, is almost certainly misleading. As of May 28, the World Health Organization had recorded only 253 confirmed cases and 50 deaths among a population of 28 million. In neighboring Oman, authorities have confirmed over 8,000 cases with a population one-sixth the size.

The country has a miniscule casecount only because of the near-total absence of testing. So far, authorities have performed fewer than 1,000 COVID-19 tests, or 31 per 1 million citizens. That’s a lower per capita figure than in northeast Syria, Chad, or Idlib.

The observations of doctors at al-Amal’s COVID treatment center cast further doubt on official figures. Between April 30 and May 24, the center admitted 228 patients suffering from coronavirus-like symptoms. Of those patients, 99 have died, or more than 40%. With the center permanently full, MSF is now expanding capacity to a total of 80 beds, up from 50 when it took over on May 7.

Facilities like this are desperately needed in a country with a barely functioning healthcare system. Half of the country’s hospitals and clinics have been destroyed or shut over the course of the war, and earlier this month, the Associated Press reported that 18% of Yemen’s 333 districts do not have a single doctor. The splintered country, which is controlled by various armed factions, is not anywhere close to being equipped to deal with an epidemic —according to a May 18 UNOCHA situation report, Yemen currently has fewer than 150 ventilators, about 500 ICU beds, and only five labs capable of conducting COVID-19 tests.

In Aden “some hospitals have closed because they’re worried about contamination, or because of lack of essential supplies that could protect the health of workers,” says MSF’s Schakal. Others have reportedly turned away patients who have sought help for breathing difficulties.

Although the MSF center still lacks sufficient staff numbers and PPE, oxygen is its most urgent need. Every day, the agency says, its COVID-19 center gets through 250 40-liter oxygen cylinders. Yemen has a total stockpile of under 12,000 cylinders for the entire country.

Al-Amal’s alarming death rate is in part due to patients arriving at a very late stage in COVID-19’s progression, MSF’s doctors say. But what is especially striking is that most of the dead are between 40 and 60 years old—considerably younger than the majority of those who have succumbed to the disease in European hospitals. While it’s possible that environmental stressors make Yemen’s population more vulnerable to COVID-19, doctors suspect the high death rate means many more people in Aden—particularly the elderly—are dying at home without seeking treatment.

It’s a hypothesis reflected in the city’s burial rates. On May 14, Save the Children reported that 380 people in the city had died of “coronavirus-like symptoms” in a single week. On the same date, the official fatality rate for the whole of Yemen was just 13. By late May, government burial statistics revealed that as many as 80 people were dying every day in Aden, compared to a pre-outbreak normal of 10.

“We don’t have visibility on the epidemiological curve, so we don’t really know when it stops,” Schakal tells TIME. “We don’t know if we are on the way up, at the top, or on the way down.”

Sickness during wartime

All of this is taking place against the backdrop of an ongoing war. Yemen’s conflict pits Houthi rebels, who control Sana’a and the country’s north, against a Saudi Arabia-led coalition that holds sway in the south and is fighting to restore the exiled internationally-recognized government. Saudi airstrikes—using U.S. and U.K. supplied munitions—have been responsible for the majority of the destruction of civilian infrastructure like hospitals.

A respite from the fighting might have come on April 8, when Saudi Arabia announced a two-week ceasefire in Yemen, which it extended for an additional month on April 24. But humanitarian groups say the truce—which was denounced as a media ploy by the Houthis—heralded an initial rise rather than a fall in violence. The Saudi Arabia-led coalition accused the Houthis of breaching its unilateral “ceasefire” 241 times in 48 hours. In the two weeks after it was announced “we definitely saw a spike in violence from both sides, there was an increase in the number of casualties, the number of displacements, and the number of airstrikes,” says International Rescue Committee’s Yemen director Tamuna Sabadze.

As of May 18, Houthi authorities had reported only four cases of COVID-19 and one death—all in Sana’a. But the Aden-based government in Yemen’s south has accused the rebels of covering up a larger outbreak. “It’s difficult to say how many have it,” the International Committee of the Red Cross’s (ICRC) Yemen director Franz Rauchenstein tells TIME from Sana’a. “We presume that there is a rather widespread transmission in the north.”

But it is not only the infected who are impacted. COVID-19 has contributed to increases in the price of basic food items and a drop in remittances from migrant workers—one of the country’s most important sources of income—since the pandemic began. That’s life-threatening in a country where even before the pandemic only 15% of children were eating the minimum acceptable diet for survival, growth, and development; and whose farms face the additional threat of massive locust swarms.

Doctors also fear that COVID-19 could inhibit Yemen’s ability to cope with other health crises. Recent flooding across the country has contributed to outbreaks of mosquito-borne malaria, dengue, and chikungunya. In the first six months of 2019, Save the Children recorded almost half a million suspected cholera cases. While Yemen has not experienced a major cholera outbreak this year, it remains a risk in a country where more than 80% of the population lacks access to clean drinking water.

Rather than a standalone problem, the global pandemic adds another layer to Yemen’s already complex crisis. “The tricky thing is that corona actually reduces the efficiency of humanitarian actors, and it reduces the efficiency of an economy,” says ICRC’s Rauchenstein. “These secondary effects of the coronavirus are weakening Yemen even more, and lowering its resilience.”

On May 24, Mohammed Abdulrahim and his wife, a pharmacist at the nearby MSF managed trauma unit, enjoyed a rare day off work for the Muslim holiday of Eid. Rather than visiting relatives according to tradition, they spent the day together at home.

But outside, Aden’s streets were as busy as usual. Despite authorities encouraging people to observe social distancing measures, men still visited markets to buy khat—a narcotic leaf chewed by many Yemenis—children went from house to house collecting candies, and families gathered in parks.

Yemenis’ resistance to social distancing is not only down to public skepticism over information authorities have put out, says Abdulrahim. Even if people believe official messaging, most of Aden’s population relies on daily work to feed their families. “Either people stay at home, where the electricity cuts out and they die because they’re starving, or they die because of corona,” he tells TIME. “Both ways, they are dead. So, they stop thinking and they just continue their life.”

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Market Analysis of Guava Fruit in District Mardan Author: Asad Ali Khan Abstract The survey was conducted to study “Market analysis of Guava fruit in District Mardan” was carried out in Mardan during 2015. Data were collected for the purpose to determine price fluctuation between whole sellers and retailers and to know about fruit transportation and their loss during marketing. The data were recorded about Guava fruit in Mardan market from whole sellers and retailers from 18 September 2015 to 31 October 2015 with approximately 5 days interval. For data collection fruits main markets of Mardan were visited. During data collection 10 whole sellers and 10 retailers were interviewed on different days to determine price fluctuation between whole sellers and retailers and also on different days and to know about transportation of Guava and their loss during marketing. At the end of survey it was derived that 5-10 rupees difference occurs in overall survey between whole sellers and retailers on different days, it is due to seasonality and a special occasion like Eid. There are about 65-75% lack of storage in market which causes a huge contribution in losses of Guava. Most of Guava fruits are carried out from Kohat, Balochistan, and Dargai through trucks and other vehicles and fruits are packed in wooden and plastic crates but these are not properly graded and packed. So from this survey it is concluded that marketing of Guava is profitable business after overcoming these problems like, to establish proper storage condition, packing and grading system. Keywords: Guava; Whole sellers; Retailers; Mardan market Introduction Mardan is a district in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. The city of Mardan is the headquarters of the district. The district also contains the famous archaeological site of Takht Bhai, Jamal Ghari and Sawal Dher. The district of Mardan is administratively subdivided into three tehsils, these are: Mardan, Takht Bhai and Katlang [1]. Psidium guajava is one of such medicinal plants belonging to the family Myrtaceae that is also used as a source of food. Pguajava has a rich ethno-medicinal history. Different parts of the plant are used in various indigenous systems of medicine, primarily for the treatment of gastrointestinal disorders [2]. The fruit is sweet and is eaten raw or cooked. It is used to make beverages, ice creams and thickened to prepare jam, jelly or marmalade. Fruits are recommended for gout [3]. The seeds contain 14% oil on dry weight, with 15% proteins and 13% starch [4]. Sufficient and excessive quantities of various fruits and vegetables are grown and produced in Pakistan for its local needs and markets. It is high time for federal Government to initiate several steps to channelize these abundant quantities of fruits and vegetables in international market for export and fetch higher returns to the country and thus to accomplish this important assigned task [5]. It is common perception among the fruit growers that the production per hectare is less in our country as compare to the advanced and developed nations. There are many factors limiting the profitability of cultivation of fruit orchards such as yield, input costs, availability of marketing facilities and absence of any incentive from the government to the peach growers. Other parameters like land, environment of the locality, weather conditions and the location where buying and selling take place may also affect the profitability of growing fruits orchards [6]. Post-harvest losses are increases day by day in all over the world and also in Pakistan, There are about 25-40% losses in fruits annually in Pakistan [7]. Objectives i. To determine price fluctuation between whole seller and Retailer of Guava in Mardan market. ii. To determine problem faced in Mardan market. Methods and Materials Information about fruit prices were collected about guava from fruits whole seller and retailer to determine fruit fluctuation price with whole seller and retailer, fruit transportation and loses of fruits during marketing in main Mardan market and the nature of their work. Data Collection The data were collected about guava fruit in Mardan market of whole seller and retailer. The data were collected from whole seller and retailer from 18 September 2015 to 31 October 2015 with 5 days interval. For data collection I have visited to fruits main market of Mardan. I have tried to my best to conduct the interview in friendly environment so that to collect the correct and reliable information as far possible. During data collection 10 whole seller and 10 retailer were interviewed to determine price fluctuation of fruit on different days and between whole seller and retailer, to know about transportation of fruit and their loses during marketing. Result and Discussion The survey was conducted to study “Market analysis of guava fruit in district Mardan” was carried out in Mardan market during 2015. Data were collected for the purpose of to determine price fluctuation between whole seller and retailer and to know about fruit transportation and their loses during marketing. The following results were obtained in this survey. Guava in Whole Sale Market Data was collected on different days with whole seller, the maximum whole sale price of guava was recorded Rs.80per/kg on 22 September 2015 with Shahzad whole seller and followed by 75 and 65 per/kg with Islam (18 September) and Suliman (31 October) respectively. While minimum price of guava was recorded Rs.35per/kg on 23 October 2015 with Jahnzeb whole seller and followed by 40 and 45 with Bahadar (13 September) and Umar (18 September) respectively (Table 1). [Click here to view Large Table 1] Guava in Retail Market Similarly the maximum retail price of guava was recorded Rs.90per/kg on 22 September 2015 with Anwar and followed by 80 and 75 with Haroon (18 September) and Ashraf (31 October). While minimum retail price of guava was recorded Rs.40per/kg on 23 October 2015 with Nawab, followed by 45 and 50per/kg with Gul Badsha (13 October) and Tauseef (18 October). There are many reason of fluctuation in guava price, one is Eid and second is seasonality. Before Eid the demand of guava was increased and before Eid rate of guava was high in whole sale market and in retail market as in table, but after Eid the price of guava was reduced because of less demand. Present work are agree with the result of [8]. Beside this, price fluctuation occur with whole seller which have no proper storage, and about 65-75% whole seller have no proper storage so disease and pests attack on them and whole seller provided fruits to retailer on low price and hence a huge fluctuation between whole seller and retailer, and also on different days occur. Current work are agree with the conclusion of [9], as they show that there are about 25-40% or more losses occur in fruits during post-harvest which ultimately decreases price value of market. [Click here to view Large Table 2] [Click here to view Large Table 3] Sometime Guava are already attack by pests and disses during transportation so whole seller provided it to retailer on lower amount which cause price difference (Table 2,3). Transportation Guava fruits are arrived from Kohat, Dargai and Balochistan to Mardan market. In my point of view the quality and taste of guava fruits which are arrived from Kohat are good as compare to others. It is transported through trucks and other vehicles. Packing Generally Guava are packed in wooden crates, paper cotton etc. one wooden crate consist on 7-9 kg guava. Grading Guava are graded on the base of size and quality i.e., big and best quality of fruits are graded on the top in the carat while poor quality and small size of guava graded in the bottom. Problems in the Marketing of Guava in Mardan Market In the survey of marketing of Guava in Mardan market the following problems were noted which are faced during marketing. 1. Lack of Transportation Facilities were the main problem which causes losses of Guava during marketing. 2. High costs of Transportation is also a problem. 3. Absence of Regulated Markets. 4. Grading and Packaging system of fruits were very poor. 5. Lack of Storage Facilities is a problem in Mardan market, about 65-70% whole seller have no proper storage facilities which cause a huge amount of fruit losses. Conclusion On the basis of data collection through interview and presented in various tables, the following conclusion can be drawn. 1. Production and marketing of Guava fruits is normally a profitable business. 2. There are 65-75% lack of storage facilities in Mardan market. 3. The price of guava are high at the beginning and at the end of season. 4. There will be no effective packing and grading system of Guava in Mardan market which cause price fluctuation and losses in fruit. 5. High fluctuation in the price of Guava occurred at some special occasions like Eid. 6. There are Rs.5-10per/kg difference occur in overall survey between whole seller and retailer. Recommendations 1. Due to perishable of Guava fruit most of Guava is wasted. Therefore storage facilities are required for Guava fruits. 2. Grading and packing system should be encouraged in the markets within the country. 3. It is important for government to make such polices which keeps balance in the inflation rate. 4. The hygienic condition of the markets should be improved as in the rainy season it cause more problem for buyers and sellers. For more Open Access Journals in Juniper Publishers please click on: https://juniperpublishers.com For more details  JOJ Horticulture & Arboriculture (JOJHA)  please click on:  https://juniperpublishers.com/jojha/index.php To read more…Full Text in in Juniper Publishers click on https://juniperpublishers.com/jojha/JOJHA.MS.ID.555559.php

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ST. PETERSBURG, Russia | Burdened Salah to lead Egypt against Russia at World Cup

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ST. PETERSBURG, Russia | Burdened Salah to lead Egypt against Russia at World Cup

ST. PETERSBURG, Russia (AP) — Amid price hikes and growing discontent with the government back home, fans of Egypt’s national team are counting on Mohamed Salah to ease their pain both on the field and off.

Salah, a 26-year-old Liverpool striker who was the player of the year in the Premier League, was forced to sit out Egypt’s opening match at the World Cup — a 1-0 loss to Uruguay — because of injury. But he has been participating fully in practice and seems likely to start against Russia on Tuesday.

Rarely has a soccer player — or any athlete, for that matter — carried a savior’s mantle so heavy.

Thousands of miles away in Egypt, the government has ordered steep fuel price hikes during a Muslim holiday and will also be looking to Salah to deliver a victory that will make people forget about protesting in the streets.

A win or a draw against Russia, which won its opening match, will keep Egypt’s hopes alive ahead of its final group game against Saudi Arabia on June 25.

The Egyptian soccer federation has provided little information about Salah’s condition, saying only that he trained fully with the team in Grozny on Saturday and Sunday.

It won’t be the first time that Salah, who scored 44 goals in all competitions in his debut season with Liverpool, is called upon to save the day. He almost single-handedly led Egypt to the World Cup for the first time in 28 years. He scored five of the team’s eight qualifying goals, including an injury-time penalty against Republic of Congo that ensured qualification with a game in hand.

But to Egyptians, Salah has been much more than just a gifted forward with a knack for scoring goals.

Hailing from a remote Nile delta village, he has been a role model in his native country through his humbleness, generosity and his generally calm disposition. His injury in last month’s Champions League final against Real Madrid left Egyptians, soccer fans or not, heartbroken. His exit from the match in pain and crying has touched millions.

Admirably, Salah’s nice-guy image takes nothing away from his touch in front of goal.

“I want to be a top-level player for many more seasons to come,” said Salah, who was the Premier League’s top scorer last season.

“I need to do that so I can be counted among the game’s greats,” he said in a recent television interview with an Egyptian TV channel.

“This is who I am. I like to be better than anyone else. It’s all about taking on challenges.”

The ocean of love for Salah in Egypt is in sharp contrast to the growing resentment of a government that has pushed on with economic reforms it describes as long overdue and needed to revive the economy, but which have devastated the middle class and the poor. Seeking to ease the pain, the government has offered the poor negligible financial aid along with often repeated expressions of gratitude by Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, the general-turned-president behind the reforms.

Effective Saturday, fuel prices were up by nearly 50 percent in the third such hike since late 2015. The higher prices are virtually certain to send prices of a wide range of goods and services soaring further. They came just weeks after authorities raised charges for drinking water by up to 45 percent, electricity by 26 percent and fares on the Cairo metro by up to 250 percent.

The latest fuel price hikes had been widely expected, but announcing them during the World Cup and the major holiday of Eid Al-Fitr appears to be designed to ensure there would be no street protests.

The holiday marks the end of Ramadan, the month when Muslims refrain from eating and drinking from dawn-to-dusk — a particularly grueling ritual this year given that it fell during the summer. They were preceded by a wave of arrests of political activists and social media heavyweights who could have whipped up opposition to the increases.

Already, the price hikes have had an immediate impact on soccer fans, most of whom watch World Cup matches at cafes because they cannot afford cable television. On Sunday, cafe owners announced increases in the minimum charge they collect from patrons during matches.

Political analyst Said Sadek said the timing of the announcement on fuel price hikes was carefully “chosen” and showed the government to be using more savvy tactics to push through tough decisions and avoid unwanted repercussions, but he warned the effect would not last long.

“Soon people will pay their bills, but it’s not easy for protests to erupt over the hikes,” Sadek said. “They may happen on a small and ineffective scale in some areas but they won’t be large. But the general sense of injustice will disseminate among people.”

By HAMZA HENDAWI ,  By Associated Press

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Travel and Tourism Market in Saudi Arabia : Industry Share, Growth And Forecast Report 2018

Saudi Arabia has an oil-driven economy, as for several years the country has been dependent on oil and related sectors for economic growth. However, focus has shifted to development of other sectors such as tourism in order to decrease dependence on oil, particularly after the global financial crisis of 2009 when the oil sector declined at a rate of 9.0%. The move will also create employment opportunities in sectors other than oil within the country. Tourism in the country is significantly dependent on religious tourism and has witnessed an increase in the number of pilgrims over the years.

Request A Sample Copy of This Report at: https://www.radiantinsights.com/research/travel-and-tourism-in-saudi-arabia-to-2018/request-sample

The report provides detailed market analysis, information and insights, including:

·         Historic and forecast tourist volumes covering the entire Saudi Arabian travel and tourism sector

·         Detailed analysis of tourist spending patterns in Saudi Arabia for various categories in the travel and tourism sector, such as accommodation, sightseeing and entertainment, foodservice, transportation, retail, travel intermediaries and others

·         Detailed market classification across each category, with analysis using similar metrics

·         Detailed analysis of the airline, hotel, car rental and travel intermediaries industries

Scope

·         This report provides an extensive analysis related to the tourism demands and flows in Saudi Arabia:

·         It details historical values for the Saudi tourism sector for 2009-2013, along with forecast figures for 2014-2018

·         It provides comprehensive analysis of travel and tourism demand factors, with values for both the 2009-2013 review period and the 2014-2018 forecast period

·         The report provides a detailed analysis and forecast of domestic, inbound and outbound tourist flows in Saudi Arabia.

·         It provides comprehensive analysis of the trends in the airline, hotel, car rental and travel intermediaries industries, with values for both the 2009-2013 review period and the 2014-2018 forecast period.

Reason To Buy

·         Take strategic business decisions using historic and forecast market data related to the Saudi travel and tourism sector.

·         Understand the demand-side dynamics within the Saudi travel and tourism sector, along with key market trends and growth opportunities.

Browse Full Research Report with TOC on https://www.radiantinsights.com/research/travel-and-tourism-in-saudi-arabia-to-2018

Key Highlights

·         The presence of Islam's two holiest cities, Mecca and Medina, is a source of a perennial flow of religious tourists, with millions of Muslims visiting Saudi Arabia annually for the Hajj pilgrimage. According to the Saudi Tourism and Antiquities Committee (SCTA) data, of the 17 million tourists who visited Saudi Arabia in 2013, 6.9 million (40.6%) did so for religious reasons.

·         The tourism sector heavily relies on international arrivals; inbound tourism expenditure reached SAR58.5 billion (US$15.6 billion) in 2013, compared to SAR41.6 billion (US$11.1 billion) from domestic travel in the same year. This is despite domestic volume being more than international arrivals, with 19.4 million domestic trips against 13.2 million international arrivals.

·         There has been a recorded decline in domestic tourism in Saudi Arabia, despite a rise in mean household income across the country. The major reason behind this decrease has been the increasing preference of outbound travel over domestic travel among Saudi Arabian residents. Furthermore, owing to the lack of entertainment options such as cinemas and restaurants allowing men and women to dine together, the Saudis preferred to travel outbound. Infrastructure development works in and around the holy cities of Mecca and Medina also impacted the flow of domestic tourists.

·         Religious tourism is the main incentive of travel to Saudi Arabia. Therefore, countries with large Muslim populations are among the major source countries for Saudi Arabia. The presence of the Islamic holy sites Mecca and Medina fuel this demand, particularly during the annual Hajj pilgrimage. Growth was recorded in inbound tourism to Saudi Arabia during the review period, as the number of international arrivals rose from 10.9 million in 2009 to 13.2 million in 2013, at a CAGR of 5.00%. Inbound tourist expenditure increased at a robust CAGR of 14.62%, from SAR34.0 billion (US$9.0 billion) in 2009 to SAR58.5 billion (US$15.6 billion) in 2013.

·         The preference for air as the mode of transport for outbound travelers is expected to increase, with the number of outbound tourists traveling by air increasing from 14.4 million in 2013 to 25.1 million in 2018. The entry of Qatar Airways in 2014 and the launch of new Saudi Gulf Airline in 2015 will increase competition in the airlines market, consequently making air services available to customers at competitive prices and also providing access to a vast network.

·         In 2012, the Saudi General Authority for Civil Aviation (GACA) announced that foreign airlines will be allowed to apply for route authority to operate domestic flights. In December 2012, Qatar Airways became the first foreign airline to obtain a license to operate on domestic and international routes based from Saudi Arabia. Qatar's Al Maha airline will start operating by the third quarter of 2014 with a fleet of 10 aircraft, with plans to build a fleet of 50 aircraft in Saudi Arabia. The huge domestic market in Saudi Arabia, which is currently served by Saudi Airlines and budget carrier Flynas, will see an increase in competition after this.

·         Saudi Arabia, with its increasing domestic and international tourist volumes driving the growing demand for accommodation, has also seen an increase in investment in the hotel market. Riyadh, Jeddah and Medina are the hubs of hotel investment in the country due to the abundance of business and religious tourists in these cities.

·         The demand for car rental services in Saudi Arabia suffers from seasonality, with high demand recorded during the peak seasons such as Hajj and Umrah, Eid, Ramadan and the school summer break. In addition to high bookings, car rental prices also go up during peak seasons.

·         The tourism sector in Saudi Arabia is flourishing rapidly. However, the growth in the number of tour operators and travel agents in the country has not been in line with the growth in the number of tourists. According to the SCTA, there were only 160 tour operators in the Saudi market in 2013, which cater mainly to religious tourists.

About Radiant Insights Radiant Insights is a platform for companies looking to meet their market research and business intelligence requirements. We assist and facilitate organizations and individuals procure market research reports, helping them in the decision making process. We have a comprehensive collection of reports, covering over 40 key industries and a host of micro markets. In addition to over extensive database of reports, our experienced research coordinators also offer a host of ancillary services such as, research partnerships/ tie-ups and customized research solutions.

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Why Modi’s Israel Visit Is a Blunder

On July 4, 2017, Narendra Modi became the first Indian PM to visit Israel since 1947. Although this should’ve been considered an achievement, I still consider it a blunder, without including other foreign policy blunders committed by the Modi government. This post is dedicated to finding out why.

Modi doing what he does best. Serious personal space issues, as Iyad El-Baghdadi says.

Back to the topic. Since 2014, the BJP has committed blunder after blunder in its foreign policy, and this in itself has relieved China and also given leverage to Pakistan which it never had over India since 1947. 

Jammu & Kashmir: India had the upper hand in Kashmir over Pakistan till 2014 and also maintained it as a bilateral issue despite Pakistan vainly attempting to internationalize the issue. Elements like Hurriyat were sidelined under the MMS years. Militancy broke out in 2010, but quickly calmed down and was returning to peace after a very long time. The number of deaths and those joining militancy in the valley was coming down quite drastically. Today, Kashmir is more or less a lost cause. Modi not just converted Kashmir into a trilateral issue with China butting in, but also made it international to the extent that Turkey, Iran and USA talked about Kashmir like it’s occupied by India. All for merely gaining Hindu votes in UP, Bihar, Gujarat, Uttarakhand and other cow belt states. Even at the extent of India’s integrity.

Pakistan: Before 2014, India had the upper hand over Pakistan and managed to get several groups and individuals backed by Pakistan designated as terrorists by the United States. Modi in his PR pursuit committed so many blunders that not only expanded Pakistan’s global outreach to Iran, Russia, China, USA and other countries, but also crippled India’s. Intrusions and attacks from Pakistan have increased in the past 3 years to the extent that even our own army men aren’t safe any longer.

China: The first major blunder was his veiled attack on China in 2014 during his Japan visit. This in itself soured the already uneasy relationship India had with China during Dr. Manmohan Singh’s years. China responded by mobilizing its military in late 2014. China didn’t escalate the matter further, till Modi wreaked the control of the Ministry of External Affairs for his own aggrandizing. Modi and NSA Ajit Doval are the actual ones in charge of the foreign ministry and not Sushma Swaraj. Back to China. Inviting the then US President Barack Obama to Republic Day 2015 irked both China and Russia. By opposing China and supporting the Philippines and Viet Nam over the South China Sea dispute in 2015-16, Modi made matters worse. China used this to extract revenge and block India’s NSG bid. Turkey, New Zealand, Mexico, South Africa and Switzerland also opposed India’s NSG bid. China said if India was to be included, Pakistan must also be included. While Pakistan rejoiced over this, the govt of India responded by saying they were okay with Pakistan’s bid. China also blocked India’s attempt to designate Masood Azhar as an international terrorist. Permitting Uighur dissident Dolkun Isa followed by massive PR from his minions on social media, then canceling it again in order not to irk China, is another instance which show what a colossal failure Modi has been on this front. In 2017, China invaded and renamed several villages in Arunachal Pradesh with silence as the only response by the MEA and Modi. In 1966, Indira Gandhi vowed to protect Bhutan, but now, China is not only invading Bhutan, but also cutting at India’s chicken neck that links the mainland to the North East. China is threatening war. Once again, silence is the only response from India.

Russia: Russian President Vladimir Putin was visibly not impressed by Modi’s PR shows, and since 2014, started to directly export weapons to Pakistan. Modi’s PR gave Pakistan enough time to warm up to Russia. Signing the LEMOA by Manohar Parrikar was too much to take. It’s worthy to note that India before Modi had the Irkut license to manufacture Sukhoi Su-30MKI fighter jets in India. In 2016, Russia conducted its first joint military exercise with Pakistan. Russia - China - Pakistan relations have been silently growing for the past one year thanks to Modi’s failed and haphazard policies.

Iran: Dr. MMS supported Iran despite US sanctions and threats from US & EU over Iran. He also stopped Iran and Saudi Arabia from a potential war and called for cooperation. Despite being pro US, Dr. MMS put India’s interests first. Modi’s first blunder here was not giving Iranian President Hassan Rouhani any meeting time during his first US visit, and instead, meeting Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu. This irked Iran, who retaliated by blocking India’s wheat. Consistent steps like this forced the Supreme Leader of Iran to open up the Chabahar port, which was confirmed by India during the MMS years, additionally to Turkey and China. Later in 2015 and early 2016, Iran proposed linking the Chabahar port with Pakistan’s Gwadar port (built by China). Till 2014, MMS despite being US friendly had Iran very close to India despite warning from the US and the EU. Modi turned this upside down. In Eid 2017, Iran’s Supreme Leader Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei prayed that peace should return to Kashmir. Something Iran never talked about has now received sharp focus.

Syria: In 2013, the then Indian PM Dr. MMS opposed US’ bid to militarily enter the war. Modi maintains a stoic silence as Syria is shred into pieces.

Gulf: Part 1: While crude prices were as high as $140, Dr. MMS maintained gasoline/diesel prices at around 70-75 Rupees/liter. Even as crude prices are as low as $50, Modi maintains the price at 67-70 Rupees/liter and doesn’t even have the basic courtesy or an iota of shame to say what he’s doing with all the collected money. The Gulf embarks on a nationalization drive and sends back Indians. What has Modi done to solve the job crisis that will only get worse in the near future? Till date, nothing. Even the shameless PR seems to fall apart now. Part 2: Qatar has been sanctioned by its Gulf Arab neighbors since June 2017 for “sponsoring terrorism”. Turkey has stepped in to help Qatar. Modi maintains deafening silence, even as India has an army base in Qatar.

USA: Despite visiting USA as frequently as the restroom, USA continues selling arms to Pakistan and also increasing its aid. Donald Trump modified H-1B visas that made it harder for Indian techies to work in US companies. Modi’s response? Silence. Even his much trumpeted visit to USA under President Donald Trump yielded little results with Modi being silent over the matter.

Singapore: Singapore in April 2017 revoked its visa program thus preventing Indian techies from getting jobs there. Modi’s response? Silence.

Australia: Adani’s coal mine caused a lot of damage in Abbot Point at Australia’s Queensland province. Australia revoked its 457 visa program thus blocking Indian techies. Modi’s response? Silence.

New Zealand: The next day after Australia revoked its skilled workers visa program, New Zealand followed suit. Modi’s response? Silence.

Sri Lanka: I can say, this is the only nation where Modi topped MMS. This he achieved by toppling Mahinda Rajapaksa’s SL Freedom Party early in 2015 and ensuring Mathripala Sirisena became SL President. However Modi has remained silent since. For once, let’s give credit to the shameless joker and clumsy buffoon.

Nepal: Nepal has gone firmly into Chinese hands, and earlier this year, stone pelting was reported from the Nepalese border. This wasn’t the case during the MMS years.

Israel: There was a reason why Indian PMs before Modi never visited Israel. India is dependent on the OPEC nations for oil, all of whom have banned Israeli citizens from entering their nations for not following the 1967 Israel-Palestine resolution and also for the sudden formation of Israel over Palestine in 1948. Even as Indian PMs maintained clandestine relations with Israel, they never directly went there because they needed the Islamic nations to supply crude oil and employment, direct and indirect. With Modi openly trumpeting his anti Muslim hate back home in India and supporting India outside, he has antagonized the Islamic world with whom India built careful relations till 2014.

Further notes: It’s becoming an increasingly known fact that China tramples its Muslim minority with impunity, with Islamic nations and people maintaining helpless silence. Modi could’ve scaled back on his Israel love, mishandling of Kashmir and hatred of Muslims, and instead increased relations with OPEC nations. He could’ve highlighted this matter too. Indeed, China’s economic instability and market crash in 2015-16 was an indicator that something was wrong. Instead of openly promoting Chinese brands like Jio (Made in China) and PayTM and giving them more breathing space, Modi could’ve done something better. He could’ve cornered China on its abuse of Muslims. He could’ve used that as a board to attack Pakistan for its silence over this matter. He had the biggest advantage in 2014 when Chinese citizens were boycotting everything Malaysian over the disappearance of MH370. He could’ve also attacked Pakistan and then finally given the Baluchistan issue a big international boost. All of them wasted in shameless pursuit of PR.

This is just the tip of the iceberg. There are more blunders committed by the Modi regime which would require me to write a novel!

Thank you all for reading. Have a good day.

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How We Combined Different Methods to Create Advanced Time Series Prediction

New Post has been published on http://dasuma.es/es/combined-different-methods-create-advanced-time-series-prediction/

How We Combined Different Methods to Create Advanced Time Series Prediction

Today, businesses need to be able to predict demand and trends to stay in line with any sudden market changes and economy swings. This is exactly where forecasting tools, powered by Data Science, come into play, enabling organizations to successfully deal with strategic and capacity planning. Smart forecasting techniques can be used to reduce any possible risks and assist in making well-informed decisions. One of our customers, an enterprise from the Middle East, needed to predict their market demand for the upcoming twelve weeks. They required a market forecast to help them set their short-term objectives, such as production strategy, as well as assist in capacity planning and price control. So, we came up with an idea of creating a custom time series model capable of tackling the challenge. In this article, we will cover the modelling process as well as the pitfalls we had to overcome along the way.

There is a number of approaches to building time series prediction ….and neither fit us

With the emergence of the powerful forecasting methods based on Machine Learning, future predictions have become more accurate. In general, forecasting techniques can be grouped into two categories: qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative forecasts are applied when there is no data available and prediction is based only on expert judgement. Quantitative forecasts are based on time series modeling. This kind of models uses historical data and is especially efficient in forecasting some events that occur over periods of time: for example prices, sales figures, volume of production etc.

The existing models for time series prediction include the ARIMA models that are mainly used to model time series data without directly handling seasonality; VAR models, Holt-Winters seasonal methods, TAR modelsand other. Unfortunately, these algorithms may fail to deliver the required level of the prediction accuracy, as they can involve raw data that might be incomplete, inconsistent or contain some errors. As quality decisions are based only on quality data, it is crucial to perform preprocessing to prepare entry information for further processing.

Why combining models is an answer

It is clear that one particular forecasting technique cannot work in every situation. Each of the methods has its specific use case and can be applied with regard to many factors (the period over which the historical data is available, the time period that has to be observed, the size of the budget, the preferred level of accuracy) and the output required. So, we faced the question: which method/methods to use to obtain the desired result? As different approaches had their unique strengths and weaknesses, we decided to combine a number of methods and make them work together. In this way, we could build a time series model capable of providing trustworthy predictions to ensure data reliability and time/cost saving. And this is how we did it.

The modeling process; let’s dive into the details

The demand data depends on various factors that can influence the result of the forecast, such as the price and types of goods, geographical location, the country’s economics, manufacturing technology, etc. As we wanted our time series model to provide the customer with high-accuracy predictions, we used the interpolation method for missing values to ensure that the input is reliable.

When conducting the time series analysis in Python 2.7., we analyzed the past data starting from 2010 to 2015 to calculate precisely the demand and predict its behavior in the future.

Fig. 1. The demand data over the 2010-2015 timeframe

At first sight, it may seem that there is no constant demand value, as the variance goes up and down, making the prediction hardly possible. But, there is a method that can help here.

We used the decomposition method to separately extract trend (the increase or decrease in the series over a period of time), seasonality (the fluctuation that occurs within the series over each week, each month, etc.) and residuals (the data point that falls outside of the expected data range). With these three components we built the additive model:

where yt is the data, Tt is the trend-cycle component, St is the seasonal component and Rt is the residual component, all defined over the time period t.

An important first step in describing various components of the series is smoothing, although it does not really provide you with a ready-to-use model. In the beginning, we estimated the trend (behavior) component. Such methods as Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, Chow’s Adaptive Control, Winter’s Linear and Seasonal Exponential Smoothing methods did not provide us with the trend estimation accuracy we expected. The most reliable result was obtained using the Hodrick-Prescott Filter technique.

Fig. 2. The estimated trend

Then, we defined the seasonality from the available data. This component could change over time, so we applied a powerful tool for decomposing the time series – the Loess method. This approach can handle any type of seasonality, and the rate of change can be controlled by a user.

Fig. 3. Multi-seasonality

We obtained a multi-seasonal component with some high and low variances, causing large fluctuations.

After applying Elastic Net Regression and Fourier transformation, we built a forecast for the trend based on the results obtained. The approximation of the trend can be found from the formula below,

where Pn(t) is a degree polynomial and Ak is a set of indexes, including the first k indexes with highest amplitudes.

Then, we calculated the Fourier coefficients using The Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT). Fig. 4. The example of code of the DFT in Python

The effect of the Fourier terms, used as external regressors in the model, is visualised below.

Fig. 5. The visualised effect of Fourier terms

We built the trend prediction using the additive model.

Fig. 6. Trend prediction

When the trend and seasonal components are removed from the model, we can obtain the residuals (the difference between an observed value and its forecast based on other observations) from the remaining part to validate and fit our mathematical model.

Fig. 7. Obtained residuals

You may notice that there are some negative values present, showing that something unusual was happening during that period of time. We aimed to find out the circumstances causing such behavior, so we came up with an idea to compile the outliers with a simple calendar and discovered that the negative values tightly correlate with such public holidays as Ramadan, Eid Al Fitr and other. Having collected and summarized all the data, we applied Machine Learning methods based on previous data points as entry features and Machine Learning Strategies for Time Series Prediction.

After a few training sessions conducted with ML models, we built a prediction for residuals that can be observed below.

Fig. 8. Prediction for residuals

As a result, we got a final forecasting model that minimizes the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) to 6% for one particular city and 10% for the entire country in general.

Fig. 9. The forecast at the original scale

A 24-times faster prediction? Yes, it’s possible

When building our model, we attempted not only to use the available information, but also discover the factors which could affect the results. This approach helped us develop the model generating more accurate forecasting results faster than the existing models. For example, to train the developed model to make a prediction for 300 different cities, we need about 15 minutes, while other methods require about 6 hours.

Also, the fact that the deviation between the actual demand and the predicted demand was only 6% resulted in possibilities to resolve mismatches between supply and demand. Now, the customer can more quickly and more easily plan the capacity, minimize future risks and optimize inventory.

What’s next?

Well, the results are quite promising. And there is a long way we can go further in improvement of this model, so it could provide accurate long-term forecasts as well. As for now, the degree of error for long-term predictions is still quite high. Sounds like a challenge? So stay tuned! Some new experiments are coming!

Posted by ELEKS on November 1, 2016 at 6:00am

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