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psychologyofsex · 3 years

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What Will Sex and Relationships Look Like After COVID-19?

One of the questions I’m asked most often by journalists these days is what sex and relationships will look like after the pandemic. As a result, I’ve spent quite a bit of time thinking about this. The truth, of course, is that there’s just so much we don’t yet know, so it’s hard to make concrete predictions. However, I’ve identified a few key areas we should keep our eyes on, which is what I’m going to explore in this post.

The Future of Relationships and Marriage

The number of American adults living single has been on the rise for decades. In fact, since the 1970s, it has increased by more than two-thirds, with about 27% living single today.

Something I wonder about is whether we’re going to see a reversal in this trend in the aftermath of COVID-19. While the rise of adults living single was long celebrated by many as a sign of independence, what we saw during the pandemic is that people living alone struggled more than those living with a partner. So will we see fewer people living single in the future? Has living with a partner become more important?

Likewise, the U.S. marriage rate was at a record low prior to the pandemic, with the average age of first marriage steadily increasing. In fact, it is nearing age 30. However, recent data points to a rise in people seeking committed over casual relationships, so an important question to ask is whether we’re going to see a rise in the marriage rate—and also whether people will decide to get hitched at younger ages again.

The Future of Sex

Condom use has been on the decline, with rates of usage among teens and men who have sex with men dropping the most over the last decade. However, people are now reporting more interest in using condoms as we emerge from the pandemic. So will COVID-19 be the thing that potentially blunts or reverses the trend toward lower condom use?

Also, while much has been said and written about college hook-up culture over the last two decades, rates of sexlessness among college-age adults (especially men) have been on the rise. In fact, before the pandemic, one in three 18-24-year-old men reported no sex in the past year.

We know that, during the pandemic, rates of sexlessness increased overall and that there’s more hesitancy around sex (especially casual sex) right now. So what does this mean for the sexuality of younger adults? Will rates of sexlessness rise even more? If so, what are the psychological implications of this? And if we have a generation of folks for whom sexual development is stunted, what will this mean going forward for their emotional development and the way that they approach romantic relationships?

The Future of Fertility

It is estimated that there will be 300,000-500,000 fewer births in 2021 in the U.S. alone. This is on top of a substantial drop in births over the past decade. It’s possible that some of these births are just being delayed or postponed, but it’s also possible that many of them will never happen at all.

This raises some important social, economic, and political questions. For example, what will it mean to have smaller cohorts of children? Will those children thrive in the presence of more individualized attention, or will they experience more loneliness? Also, while being part of a smaller generational cohort may make it easier to get jobs later on due to a smaller workforce, this will also result in less tax revenue and collection for social security.

This raises the question of whether government intervention is on the horizon to promote more births in the United States. In other countries with declining birth rates and growing elderly populations (e.g., Japan, South Korea), we’ve seen governments getting involved in an effort to increase the birth rate, albeit with quite limited success.

Beyond this, there are also questions to be raised about how COVID-19 itself affects reproductive health. For example, some studies point to impaired sperm counts in men infected with COVID-19, perhaps due to an elevated immune response in the testes. Other studies suggest that COVID-19 may have negative effects on reproductive processes in women. We don’t know whether these effects are temporary or permanent because we don’t have long-term data yet. However, this had led some scientists to wonder whether the pandemic will create another kind of fertility crisis—one that heightens the need for assisted reproduction.

The Future of STIs

Although rates of sexual activity dropped during the pandemic, sexually transmitted infection (STI) testing and surveillance dropped at the same time. Thus, the full picture of what happened with STIs during the past year is unclear.

Several STDs were at a record high before COVID-19—but since the pandemic began, people with asymptomatic infections haven’t been getting tested. For example, some research has shown that while cases of gonorrhea dropped overall during the pandemic, this was primarily due to a decrease in asymptomatic cases showing up for testing. There was no change in number of symptomatic people who came in. In other words, people who were infected but didn’t have symptoms didn’t show up for routine testing, which raises the possibility of a hidden STI epidemic.

This is particularly concerning when you consider other research showing a decline in condom use during the pandemic, particularly among single adults.

This raises some important questions for sexual health experts, including how we get people back in the habit of regular STI testing. It also raises additional questions about the future of condom use because, while some data suggest that people say they are more likely to use condoms going forward (as I mentioned above), this obviously seems at odds with the finding that condom use dropped last year—so what accounts for this discrepancy? What’s really going to happen with condom use?

Conclusions

The COVID-19 pandemic has the potential to substantially alter the future of sex, relationships, fertility, and sexual health. We don’t know how all of this is going to play out—and we won’t know for quite some time. However, it’s important for us to keep an eye on these key areas so that we can be prepared for what’s ahead.

Want to learn more about Sex and Psychology? Click here for more from the blog or here to listen to the podcast. Follow Sex and Psychology on Facebook, Twitter (@JustinLehmiller), or Reddit to receive updates. You can also follow Dr. Lehmiller on YouTube and Instagram.

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perfectirishgifts · 4 years

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The Prerequisite For Healing The Nation: A Federal Job Guarantee

New Post has been published on https://perfectirishgifts.com/the-prerequisite-for-healing-the-nation-a-federal-job-guarantee/

The Prerequisite For Healing The Nation: A Federal Job Guarantee

An original Work Projects Administration sign from the 1930’s. The WPA was a huge part of the New … [] Deal during the Great Depression. Sign set on a blue/gray background. Canon 5D.

This is normally the time of month when I post commentary about the latest economic data, particularly the Employment Situation Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (speaking of which, unemployment inched down again, however less than expected). But I’m not sure that’s very important right now. We all know what’s happening: at the beginning of the year, the measures required to stem the tide of COVID infections caused post-World War Two highs in unemployment. As restrictions were eased, so unemployment fell. However, the winter months in the Northern Hemisphere are already bringing on new challenges and things may well get worse before they get better. But get better they will, it appears, as vaccines are starting to become available at this very moment.

While this is all very serious and newsworthy, there’s no mystery here that requires an economist’s perspective to unravel. I therefore decided to shift gears this month and talk about a broader issue, one that existed well before COVID and which has contributed materially to the deep political divisions in American today: the increasing income inequality that has marked the US economy since the 1970s.

While I normally avoid taking sides and instead focus on laying out the cause-and-effect of economic forces (I’m going to tell you how the car works, but where you drive it is up to you), this time I can’t do that and still make my point. So here is my stance: those who believe that there was massive election fraud, that science is left-wing propaganda, that the Democratic Party is full of socialists and pedophiles, and that wearing a mask is an unconstitutional infringement of their personal freedom (and a stepping stone toward requiring all American women wear veils—yes, I have heard that)–they’re wrong. More than wrong, they’re dangerous. Their views are undermining the very soul of US democracy. It has to stop.

How did this situation evolve? Obviously, something this deep-seated and complex is not monocausal. A lot is going to have to happen to fix it because a lot happened to cause it. But I am prepared to argue that there is a necessary prerequisite to getting us back on the road to civility and respect for logic and evidence: reversing the above-mentioned trend of increasing economic inequality. Until all Americans feel safe, secure, and part of a system that works for them, Joe Biden can preach unity until he’s blue in the face and it will make no difference.

The effects of unemployment, poverty, and income inequality are widespread and pernicious. Studies link them to increased rates of suicide, mental health issues, drug and alcohol use, spouse and child abuse , and even violent extremism. Victims tend to blame themselves, as does the rest of society. This can put people into a downward spiral that leads to precisely the kind of anger, conspiracy-theorizing, and scapegoating we see today.

Again, I don’t mean to suggest that this is the only factor involved. The specifics of how these maladies manifest themselves is a function of the society in question and the historical context. I am also not saying that it is only the poor and disenfranchised who believe that there was mass voter fraud, etc., nor that they are all of the same mind. Taking Weimar Germany as an example of a polarized society—where demonstrations and street fighting had been going on since shortly after the end of World War One—not only did those most affected by the economic collapse vote both both Nazi and Communist, but they were joined by some wealthy and middle class voters as well, whose anxiety was linked not to their immediate fortunes but to their fears for Germany’s future. One can see parallels today.

Perhaps the key takeaway from the scholarly literature regarding what happened in Germany is this:

“the elections that put Adolf Hitler in power are subject to the same ordinary voting behavior explanations as are most other democratic elections worldwide…if we are interested in the likely reactions of voters and parties, we may want to focus more on governmental successes and failures in choosing and implementing public policies than on the degree of intellectual versus demagogic appeals of the candidates.”

In other words, dismal conditions are far more important to creating extreme outcomes than the nature of the candidate’s message because socio-economic conditions drive the attractiveness of a candidate’s platform. Hitler’s speeches would have fallen on deaf ears in a Germany that boasted low rates of unemployment and high levels of income. Hence my thesis that reconciliation in America can only take place if we can return to a more inclusive and prosperous economic landscape.

How do we achieve this? The core of any successful plan must include a government job guarantee, a promise to American citizens that if you want to work but can’t find a job, you can always find employment in the public sector. If that sounds like FDR’s New Deal, there’s a good reason for that: it’s very much like it, except on a much larger and permanent basis.

There is absolutely no reason to expect the private sector to provide employment for every willing worker. To business, labor is a cost to be minimized. Fair enough, it’s not their responsibility to reduce unemployment and it is by this process (given several other caveats) that they are able to offer products with low prices. But, add to this the employment-reducing forces of automation (which has apparently accelerated during our current crisis) and the outsourcing of production and it’s little wonder that we have seen a diminishing middle class and increasing rural poverty.

However these are not by any means insurmountable obstacles. We have, after all, plenty of food, shelter, clothing, and more for all Americans. That’s not the issue nor has it been for decades. The problem is jobs, or the means of securing the income necessary to take your share of the food, shelter, and clothing off the shelf. That problem can be solved with a job guarantee and here is what we have to do to make it happen:

STEP ONE: Stop confusing the market with the economy.

The former is only part of the latter, albeit a very large one in our society. However, even in our own recent history we have shifted gears very rapidly toward public sector, non-market solutions when we thought it necessary. In 1941, unemployment was still almost 10% (it had been 14.6% in 1940). By 1943, however, it was 1.9% and it fell to 1.2% the next year. What was responsible for this remarkable turnaround? The fact that after Japan bombed Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941, the US started a massive government jobs program called World War Two.

The magnitude of this reversal of economic fortunes was staggering and while there was rationing, this had to do with the fact that strategic materials were being diverted to the war effort. Without that, if the economy had been geared toward increasing the well being of domestic citizens, then there would, indeed, have been a chicken in every pot. And note that this isn’t promising people the moon or something for nothing, it’s guaranteeing them a share of the output we could already have produced for them but they could not afford. Now they can.

STEP TWO: Recognize economic and social problems as no less significant than war.

Unfortunately, it appears that we, as a society, are only willing to employ our economic resources in the manner suggested above when there is a war. That we will not do so in response to social or economic calamity is a tragedy and a source of shame. No one asked, “Can we afford it?” after Pearl Harbor; instead, they thought, “How can we afford not to?” As we saw just this fall, however, that has most certainly not been the case in response to the massive economic disaster caused by coronavirus. All this despite the fact that the US cannot possibly be forced to default on debt in its own currency.

STEP THREE: Change our definition of a “job.”

While there are exceptions, there seems to be a default understanding of “job” as being something that makes a profit for someone; or, at the very least, there is an implication that private-sector jobs represent the most worthwhile undertakings. We need to rid ourselves of that notion. There are separate, distinct, and complementary roles for the private and public sectors and each has a key role. The private sector should do things that are profitable, regardless of the social benefit, while the public sector should do things that are of social benefit, but unprofitable. Profit-derived jobs are not inherently better or more difficult or more praiseworthy than those that are not. Indeed, were we to rely exclusively on the profit motive, we’d leave undone things like national defense, educating the poor, caring for the infirm, combating climate change, police and fire protection, lawmaking, disaster response, etc, etc. And yet these are essential for a civilized society and they underpin our ability to actually carry out the market jobs. And they are what the job guarantee would create.

Furthermore, we need to reconsider what a job is. If you stay at home to care for your children, are you creating a burden on society or contributing to it? Likewise for those caring for sick or elderly relatives. To reiterate a point made above, we have the ability to make food, shelter, clothing, and more for everyone. A job guarantee makes sure they get their share and that we are able to address social problems that the market ignores.

STEP FOUR: Find a political party willing to support such a program.

Unfortunately, neither political party appears to have this seriously on their agenda. Early in his presidency, Donald Trump mentioned it, but that went nowhere. Imagine if that had already been in place when COVID hit! Nothing about what is going on now is simple, but we most certainly would not have found ourselves hoping that a $1200 check would last until December. Nor is Joe Biden a fan . Rather, it appears that he is counting on the private sector to create a job for everyone who willing. That’s a losing proposition when labor is a cost to firms. Furthermore, the private sector will never address critical but unprofitable social problems like climate change. It appears that Joe Biden hasn’t moved past Step One yet.

Long story short, we can absolutely be better off in terms of national divisiveness in four years. The question is, who is willing to take up the cause backed by policies that will actually work? So far, the answer appears to be no one, but we can hope.

From Leadership Strategy in Perfectirishgifts

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junker-town · 5 years

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How the NBA’s suspended season will affect its best teams

The implications of the NBA’s suspended season for its best teams.

These are the implications of the NBA’s suspended season for the best teams in the league.

Before Covid-19’s accelerated, unnerving reach made everyday life feel like it was dangling by a thread, the NBA was connective tissue for millions of people who treated any random weeknight’s slate of games as both part of their daily routine and the most reliable way to preoccupy areas of the brain that might otherwise be wracked with anxiety or stress.

My doctor instructed me to self-quarantine for at least 14 days after I came in contact with Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell at Madison Square Garden earlier this month. Actually testing for the coronavirus isn’t an option, so I’ve bunkered down in my apartment, writing, podcasting, reading books (a new copy of David Halberstam’s classic The Breaks of the Game has been sitting on my night table for the past few weeks), and, for my own sanity, stealing quick solitary walks around my Brooklyn neighborhood. I’ve also, off and on, thought about what all this means for the NBA, in a world where the line between temporary and permanent grows blurrier by the hour.

As trivial as this seems, with the league’s current season on the verge of cancellation, so many long-term consequences that are unrelated to epidemiology exist. For some, pondering what may or may not occur a few months from now is a valuable distraction. This is all bewildering on an unprecedented scale, and, frankly, slow-drip speculation about how an NBA team will look on the other side of such turbulence is almost peaceful; a way to make everything feel as normal as it possibly could be.

With all that in mind, here are some theoretical, fluttering implications for a few different teams, whether the season is cancelled tomorrow or postponed until after it would normally end.

Milwaukee Bucks

If the postseason is scrapped, no good team will be flung into a more sweeping state of uncertainty than Milwaukee. All year they were the NBA’s new boogeyman, stomping through 29 other teams with near-historic ferocity. But the Bucks also had questions that could only be answered in the playoffs, when we’d finally see how their successful albeit rigid system and rotation would translate, whether they’d need another playmaker, if Eric Bledsoe would melt into a puddle, etc.

Tied to those on-court topics is Giannis Antetokounmpo’s future. No playoffs means Antetokounmpo would be robbed an opportunity to learn some critical information about his team’s championship potential before they offer him a super-max extension during the offseason. If, in the absence of knowing how far his Bucks could’ve gone in the playoffs, Antetokounmpo turns down the offer and tells Bucks general manager Jon Horst he wants to play out the final year of his current contract and then play things by ear, how will Milwaukee respond?

Antetokounmpo is the exact type of franchise player who’s worth betting the farm on. Trading him would not be on the table unless he demanded it. But several teams — in larger markets, with more resources and attractive complementary pieces — will have max cap space in 2021, and an opportunity to sell him on their vision. Losing Antetokounmpo for nothing would obliterate a franchise that’s constructed around his generational ability.

The NBA’s economic future may change how players and owners view long-term, multi-million dollar contracts as a whole, but operating off how we currently see things, no team was more looking forward to the playoffs than Milwaukee, and no team better hope they’re still played, be it in empty arenas, practice facilities, or blacktop playgrounds.

Boston Celtics

Relatively speaking, the Celtics are in decent shape if no more games are played this season. They’re young, and Jayson Tatum’s emergence as (at least) a top-15 player over the past couple months allowed for a clear hierarchy to establish itself. The league’s sudden financial uncertainty all but guarantees Gordon Hayward will opt into his contract. Nothing is guaranteed in the NBA, but this team should have as much top-end continuity as any contender next year. If games resume in a couple months, that’s critical time for Kemba Walker’s knee to recover from whatever has been bothering it.

Brooklyn Nets

Remember when Kenny Atkison got fired 19 years ago? Well, even before that happened Brooklyn’s gap year was an unmitigated disaster. Kyrie Irving had season-ending shoulder surgery on March 3, and despite Caris LeVert’s crafty scoring prowess and Spencer Dinwiddie’s pseudo-all-star capability on any given night, the Nets were skidding into a buzzsaw, regardless of who they played in the first round.

Then, earlier this week, Kevin Durant and three of his teammates tested positive for coronavirus, firmly placing professional athletes in an important role they’ve had to fill: vanguards who can spread awareness and even some modicum of hope about an illness that could very well cripple every element of life as we knew it.

In a world where those four recover — along with every other player who tests positive in the coming weeks and months — and games resume, the delay could have the slightest of basketball-related silver linings.

Regardless of what Durant’s business partner Rich Kleiman has to say in the middle of March, if the NBA playoffs pick up in July and Durant is healthy enough to compete, knowing the following year won’t begin until Christmas, it’s hard to imagine him not itching to do so. This doesn’t mean Brooklyn would be considered a favorite to come out of the East, but if Durant is able to contribute for 30 minutes a night there’s no reason why they can’t upset the Toronto Raptors in the opening round.

The trickle down effect Durant’s mere presence would have on everybody else is huge. His all-time talent overrules the power of continuity and cohesion. Throw him the ball in the fourth quarter and get out of the way. With Dinwiddie, LeVert, and Joe Harris also on the floor, guarding Brooklyn’s offense would be agonizing.

As Rudy Gay told me in a conversation about the value of chemistry earlier this year: “It’d be tough not to be able to play with somebody like Kevin Durant.”

Philadelphia 76ers

It’s always hard to get a read on this year’s most disappointing team. Even if the season comes back, their pieces still won’t fit. Al Horford won’t be younger, have a quicker release on his three-point shot, or look more comfortable as the fifth option in Philadelphia’s starting lineup — assuming he won’t come off the bench.

But the larger question here surrounds Ben Simmons. If, by June, all concerns about his ailing back are gone and Joel Embiid miraculously shows up to the practice facility in shape, this team’s ceiling may rise closer to where it was back in October. A spark of optimism will be tied to the Sixers for the first time in a long time.

Utah Jazz

Whether games are played or not, the Jazz will be greeted by two seismic decisions shortly after the NBA calendar resumes. Gobert and Mitchell are both eligible for contract extensions during the offseason. Mitchell is a lock to receive a max offer, but Gobert, who qualified for the supermax when he made an All-NBA team last year, is in a different situation.

All data collected during the playoffs would be a critical factor here, and if Utah is robbed of a chance to see how Gobert would’ve performed in that setting with Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic folded into their system, how would they approach it all? In other words, if Gobert — who turns 28 in June and just made his first all-star team — is expecting the supermax, how will negotiations go? To say nothing about the state of his relationship with Mitchell — a variable that obviously matters and is unknown at the moment — the Jazz probably don’t want to invest a healthy chunk of a dropping cap in someone who barely touches the ball.

As painful as it’d be considering they clearly saw themselves as a title contender before the season began, the Jazz may take a step back for the sake of their long-term health, by shopping Gobert, letting Conley walk in free agency, and then rebuilding around Mitchell. That or they’ll come to some sort of agreement with their franchise center that’s well under the max and carry on like the shrewd franchise they are.

Houston Rockets

If the season does not return then Mike D’Antoni has likely coached his final game in Houston. Daryl Morey might not be the man who gets to hire his replacement, either. And with no firm evidence as to how their small-ball strategy would work in the playoffs, PJ Tucker, Eric Gordon, Robert Covington, and every other Rocket not named James Harden or Russell Westbrook would immediately find themselves in trade rumors.

However, if this season does return, few, if any teams will benefit more from the extended break. The tax Houston pays with their physically exhausting style of play will be less steep if Tucker, Harden, and Westbrook have several months off to recharge their batteries and hit the ground running on a chase for their first title.

Golden State Warriors

Steph Curry returned from hand surgery shortly before the break, but the Warriors are too far behind in the standings for Klay Thompson’s health to matter, whether he’s good to go in June or not. Here’s another angle, though: What happens to their draft pick?

Assuming the Warriors are looking to move that asset for more win-now contribution at some point before the draft, how does the absence of March Madness, the combine, and every other annual way for teams to study prospects impact how said teams value the picks in this year’s pool? With no obvious franchise-altering player for the taking, and no opportunity for anyone to improve how they’re perceived by evaluators, is this year’s first overall pick the least important in recent NBA history? And if the Warriors get it, knowing their unusual circumstance for a team in that type of position, what will they do?

Los Angeles Lakers

Los Angeles Clippers

Ever since Kawhi Leonard chose the Los Angeles Clippers over the Los Angeles Lakers, the basketball world was building towards a showdown between those two teams. Apologies to the Bucks, Rockets, Celtics, and Raptors, but a playoff series that doesn’t leave Staples Center was always the most important subplot of the season.

If it does not return, both franchises are humongous losers. Each has tethered itself to the present day. All their draft picks and intriguing young talent can now be found in Oklahoma City and New Orleans. LeBron James is 35 years old. Leonard and Paul George are in the middle of their respective primes but can become unrestricted free agents in 2021.

Stripping both teams of the opportunity to capitalize on the amount of talent they’ve compiled in the here and now could crush basketball in Los Angeles, even if Anthony Davis re-signs a five-year deal with the Lakers this off-season (which, like everything else in the world right now, is so far from a sure thing).

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clickairadio · 4 years

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CAIR 13: Therefore What Does COVID-19 Mean To MY Business ??

What can AI do to help small businesses with so many business failures taking place with COVID-19? There are plenty of stats around that quantify the number of businesses dropping. Understanding these stats is useful, but, it leaves us to ask: Therefore What? Therefore, what can AI do to help the business owner mount a massive plan to rebuild, and pursue the business vision that was once your??

Hey, welcome everybody. This is Grant thank you for joining another episode of ClickAI Radio. All right, so been thinking again, still this is really part two of AI combating COVID when you when you think about all of the all of the carnage, if you will, in terms of the impact of businesses, definitely the impact to human life has been horrific. But also the impact to the businesses as well. And all the people's lives affected by that. You start asking the question least I have, I've been thinking, what can I do to help small businesses with so many business failures taking place? due to COVID-19? Oh, here we are in the first of September, and we've got lots of credit, potential downstream problems coming to us. There are plenty of stats around we're going to take a look at some of those that quantify the number of businesses that have been dropping that have been falling by the wayside. Understanding the stats, I believe is useful. But it also leaves me to ask therefore what they're For what can I do? What can I do? What can I do with AI, as a business owner to mount a massive plan, to rebuild and to pursue the business vision that was once yours? What are the things that we could do?

So I don't want to just focus on here's all of the negative things happening. It's important for us to understand what's happening. But we also want to pivot forward and look to the future and say, therefore, what can I do to regrow and regroup from this. So first part, let's take a look at some of the stats going on. First one comes from Bloomberg, this is a report that came out is around the end of July, so it's about a month old. It indicated they actually were referencing Yelp. And with Yelp, they had shown that that there was more than 80,000 companies that had permanently shut down now that was during the period of March 1 to July 25. Have those 60,000 more local businesses, meaning they have fewer than five locations, about 800 of the small businesses filed for Chapter 11. Interestingly, there's a fair number that did not file for chapter 11. That's that's another another conversation. In any event, that that amount right there is up about 30% or more from last year during the same period of time. So that's a big number. That's a big shift. Let's look at another stat here. It says, you know, while the businesses you know, these small businesses are having these challenges, the firm's with fewer than 500 employees, and up accounting for about 45% of the US economic activity. That's quite a bit when you think about it. Almost half of all American workers come through these small to medium businesses. And here's another stat also from Bloomberg. It said hey, in June of 2020, there is a survey that showed that 31% of owners reported lower sales in the past three months, while 7% reported higher sales a year earlier. All right, you kind of expected that. All right. In the same survey, though only 13% of business owners said it was a good time to expand. Right? That's a dip from 24% a year earlier.

Alright, so fewer thinking, Hey, I'm thinking bullish about business right now. So that's not that's not too surprising. There's some interesting stats in terms of the businesses that have had impact, you know, largest impact, no surprise here, the restaurant sector took the biggest hit right there. Retail and shopping was the next largest beauty and then automotive and then down into event planning and that order in terms of order of of impact or level of impact, I should say. All right, that was from Bloomberg case. So that's one view of the impact of the small businesses end Jump over here. There's another report from the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. And they just quickly they pointed out about 50% of small businesses have one to two months of cash available. There were some other stats to it came down to it was around 15% or so had three to six months of cash available. So cash is king, and boy if there's no cash coming in, and that's all we've got in terms of our runway, that creates, obviously a massive problem. So that's another issue. Of course, the question that leads me to think is, is there cash in the business that we're not getting access to? And I actually believe there is I believe that AI from my experience, we can use it to help us discover cash that's available. I'll talk about that in a bit. here's, here's the third area, a third report from CNBC. That came out in the end of June. Talking about the amount of help that small business owners had gained the the payment protection pro met or excuse me the paycheck Protection Program and the economic injury disaster loan program.

All right, those aren't easy to say, not easy to roll out anyway, they, they gave out nearly $630 billion in funding. And about one fourth of the small businesses that receive that funding are already considered or considering closing their doors. And of course, the question that comes up is, gee, how do I pay back? Right? And what's the implications? Right, will there be forgiveness if I do close my doors? That's a whole other topic as well want to shift the thinking? So that's a dark picture, right? But I believe that there's a bright future ahead of us as a people. And with that, I want to talk about some techniques where we see AI being used To combat COVID itself, and then we'll shift another segment as well. But just briefly in this segment, ai combatting COVID this particularly comes from a report focusing on Asia, right? And so what are different countries in Asia doing so there's Mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea, in this report. In this report, it pointed out the following places where they are gathering data, and that data is being used then for AI purposes. So I'll break this into piece first, where are they collecting the information or the data? Alright, so between those different countries, they're collecting it from places such as transportation systems, Immigration and Customs databases, obviously the COVID-19 databases so healthcare data, so multiple countries are using that data, mobile data, mobile technologies Right social media, credit card transactions, closed circuit television. So you know, security cameras, GPS on the car, and then wearable tracking devices. All right, so those that there was like eight or nine different locations, and you start thinking, Wait, what's the connection between that data and COVID and and something to help me address COVID related scenarios. So I'll just call out a couple of the so one of them is an AI based tool that facilitates targeting lockdown and reopening, right so in other words, it monitors where a person should be right of course, there's different cultures and and government policies. I'm not here to comment on those, but in any event, so using some of those trackable device data or mobile data, etc. If you're classified as a you know, you've got COVID then you are asked to stay within certain location. And there's some AI helping to monitor that.

There's other AI based tools in these countries being used to enable quick diagnosis and classification of patients, right. And we've seen some things. Yeah, here in the US. Some organizations doing some things like that. I'll mention one here in just a moment. And so that's a critical way and unnecessary way to use AI. All in all, there's some strict home quarantines for those that have COVID in those countries. And as a result, use of this data across all these different data sources that I had mentioned, are being applied. All right. So that's AI combating COVID nasia capturing a two part sort of a social cultural use of AI Hey, stay where you should. And then there's there's the approach that says, hey, we're gonna actually gonna try to diagnose, diagnose you better with that. All right. Talk about here in the US So, and I h launched a medical imaging technology using AI to fight code. This came out in the health analytics.com report. So the NIH rolled this out not too long ago, here comes a big acronym am idrc. So that's medical imaging and data Resource Center, what they're doing is they're utilizing AI, medical imaging, to course look for those assessment opportunities. And earlier that they can assess it, then then the better. Of course, they have the opportunity to help the patient with that. So they're gathering large repositories of COVID-19 chest images, and the idea there are courses. It allows the researchers to ask critical questions, and then ultimately to develop what the appropriate next steps are for the people. So that's a cool way to use AI, obviously to help people's lives. So the question is Therefore what? Right? So if you're a small to medium business owner, if you're an entrepreneur, you try to make it through this tenuous time where there's lots of companies that have been dramatically impacted negatively in lots of people's lives who have gotten sick with this.

Therefore, what does this mean to your business? So as a business owner, we need to at times, think as a researcher, right? We need to look for ways to evaluate your business data. How will you evaluate your business data? So just as those COVID researchers are certainly evaluating tissue data and asking critical questions? What business data will you evaluate? What questions do you have about your business now what this means to your business is that you should run some AI predictive analysis on your business information. In other words, turn your data upside down, inside out, look for the successful patterns that built your business. Many of them you know cognitively or empirically In other cases, you won't know them, right. And we want AI to be able to highlight those and make you aware of those. And just as it's important to understand what the positive patterns have been, also look for patterns that created negative growth, right? And the sooner you can discover them, stop doing them. Right. And so AI, there are some that you already know you don't need AI to tell you. But there are others where there are times where AI points out interesting patterns or behaviors, and you need to be apprised of those and stop bleeding cash in that happens. So if you want to learn how to do this, subscribe to the channel. Reach out to me, we'll have a conversation and we can help you get started with this. Don't forget the purpose, the mission and the vision for why you started your business. Hey, thanks for joining looking forward to speaking with you again.

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financialinvestingradio · 4 years

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FIR 94: Therefore What Does COVID-19 Mean To MY Business ??

Thank you for joining Grant on ClickAI Radio. Don't forget to subscribe and leave feedback. And remember to download your FREE eBook visit ClickAIRadio.com now.

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artofpeacelove · 4 years

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https://ift.tt/eA8V8J

In early April, the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved the first COVID-19 antibody test amidst much fanfare from the scientific community. The hope was to use this type of blood test (which is different from tests for the virus itself) to identify people who have already been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 (aka the novel coronavirus that causes the disease COVID-19) by testing their blood for the presence of COVID-19-specific antibodies—proteins produced by white blood cells as a direct response to the novel coronavirus.

Knowing who has been exposed to the coronavirus has huge implications for fighting the pandemic. Considering an estimated 25 percent of individuals who contract SARS-CoV-2 are asymptomatic (and thus likely don’t ever get tested for the virus), and a large percentage of cases (about 80 percent) are considered mild, an antibody test could give public health officials a better understanding of how many people truly have had COVID-19. Even more exciting: People who have been exposed to the coronavirus might also have some immunity to it, thanks to the antibodies their immune system created to fight off the virus. (Emphasis on might—we don’t know enough about the virus yet to know whether a person would be totally immune or just less vulnerable to future infections, or how long that immunity might last.)

In theory, this could be game-changing for health-care workers and others on the front lines fighting the pandemic, Rand McClain, DO, chief medical officer of Live Cell Research, previously told Well+Good. “If we can identify that they’ve already inoculated the virus, and are therefore [potentially] immune, then [the fear of getting sick] doesn’t have to add stress to everything else is going on,” he said. “We can put those people on the front lines, and those who don’t have the antibodies we can choose to be more careful with.” Companies like Amazon and General Motors have also talked about doing wide-scale testing of their employees to see who has already been exposed and thus is potentially safe to come back to work—an appealing idea to many during a massive economic collapse.

There’s also been talk of using people who have recovered from COVID-19 for plasma donations for people who are critically ill—effectively gifting immunity to those most at risk of dying from the virus. (The Red Cross is seeking such donations now.) Antibody testing could widen the field of potentially eligible donors by identifying even more people who have had the virus.

However, in recent weeks, the medical community has come to grips with the fact that many of the publicly-available antibody tests aren’t living up to their promise. The antibody tests mass-ordered by the UK turned out not to be able to test for the novel coronavirus, while $100,000 worth of tests ordered by the University of Washington from China had to be recalled because they were contaminated with a bacteria. Even FDA commissioner Stephen Hahn urged Americans last week to “be very cautious” about many of the antibody tests currently available on the market. So what went wrong?

Are COVID-19 antibody tests accurate? The answer is yes—but only from specific, FDA-approved providers

Obviously, the massive potential of these tests hinges upon their ability to accurately identify COVID-19 antibodies (first, an antibody called IgM which appears when your body starts fighting a new infection, and second, a version of IgG, which created later to fight the specific invader), and we’re not quite there yet.

According to Dr. McClain, what makes an antibody test “accurate” really comes down to two factors: its sensitivity and its specificity. Sensitivity refers to a test’s ability to measure a “true positive” (someone who is most likely immune to COVID-19) while specificity is defined in this case as a test’s ability to identify immunity to this particular strain of coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)—and not immunity you may have developed from another form of the virus (like 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1) at a different stage of your life. A test lacking in both factors will yield an inaccurate—and potentially life-threatening-result.

“This can be potentially extremely dangerous,” says George Declos, MD, PhD, respiratory disease and occupational medicine specialist at the University of Texas. “Not only because [a bad test] gives misinformation, but because it may trigger actions on the part of employers, and possibly even health-care providers, to act on the basis of a positive result that is inaccurate.” For example, if someone goes back to work after getting a false positive from a bad antibody test, Dr. Declos says, they’re now being put in a dangerous situation where they could actually get infected (because no antibodies = no immunity at all.)

“This can be potentially extremely dangerous. Not only because [a bad test] gives misinformation, but because it may trigger actions on the part of employers, and possibly even health-care providers, to act on the basis of a positive result that is inaccurate.” —George Declos, MD, PHD

Yet despite the very real risks of faulty tests, there isn’t a ton of oversight right now on what’s going to market. When the FDA issued emergency use authorizations (“EAUs”) for four COVID-19 antibody tests earlier in the month, Dr. McClain says that the Secretary of Health and Human Services also issued a policy stating that, “circumstances exist justifying the authorization of emergency use of in vitro diagnostics for the detection and/or diagnosis of the novel coronavirus.” Meaning, so long as the company wrote a letter to the FDA promising to adhere to the rigorous requirements of the tests put in place by the department, they wouldn’t need to be vetted.

According to Dr. McClain, many companies are staying true to their word and creating tests that follow the FDA’s guidelines down to the last detail. A number of them have either not submitted letters to the FDA, however, and still more are advertising that they’re “approved by the FDA,” when they technically are not. “They are registering with the FDA through a letter saying, ‘We promise you the tests have been validated.’ So if it does come out that they’re not, in fact, validating this testing, they’re going to get a pretty good spanking,” he says. So, of course, the findings from these tests cannot be trusted in the same way as the FDA-vetted Mount Sinai Laboratory test or the Ortho Clinical Diagnostics, Inc. test—because there’s been no third-party confirmation that these tests are truly effective.

FDA commissioner Stephen Hahn said in a statement that the department is now in the process of investigating and warning companies that are issuing poorly manufactured tests, along with the help of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the National Institutes of Health (NIH). “When we become aware of these issues, we have and will continue to take appropriate action against firms making or distributing unvalidated tests or those making false claims, such as issuing Warning Letters requesting that companies stop their unlawful promotion and detaining and refusing fraudulent test kits at the border,” he said.

Hopefully, stricter regulations will deliver the antibody test back to its original status as a source of hope—and not one of confusion—says Dr. McClain. And more importantly, a larger crop of dependable tests will generate data that are easier to interpret, learn from, and implement.

My workplace or doctor offered me an antibody test—how can I vet it myself?

Despite the fact that companies like Amazon and General Motors are looking into the idea of antibody testing their employees, both Dr. Declos and Dr. McClain agree: We’re nowhere near ready to use antibody tests as a way to end the workforce’s remote status. The science just isn’t there yet.

“If you are thinking about having people to return to work based on an assumption that just because they have antibodies means that they are protected from infections, and it turns out not to be the case when the science is reviewed, that is concerning because you’re putting people in harm’s way unnecessarily,” says Dr. Declos. “I think antibody testing is a good thing, but I think jumping the gun and making use of testing before the science is there can be extremely dangerous.”

If you are given the opportunity to take the antibody test through your place of work, there are a few ways to vet it yourself. The most obvious? Call your doctor. “If I’m the patient, that’s the best way. A doctor is supposed to go through this process and vet [the test], and has the tools, presumably, to do so,” says Dr. McClain. The next best place to go is the FDA’s website, which lists out all of the tests as well as their status. If you don’t see the test distributed by your employer on the list, take your results with a grain of salt. (Oh, and if a test is costing you a mere $5, you can go ahead and write it off as fake.)

The path forward for antibody tests

Dr. McClain is optimistic that $484 billion relief bill working its way through Congress this week, which promises to provide money for COVID-19 testing, will also pave the way for a larger sample size of people who have received the highest quality antibody tests.

“A large amount of testing would be required to get a handle on this virus,” says Dr. McClain. “We need a representative sample in this country to figure out a range of how many people are infected, how many people have symptoms and don’t, and how many have died. Right now, we have what would be considered a very biased sample in that we really only have information on the people we know are infected, and particularly those with severe disease.”

With this information in hand, he believes it would be easier to make smart, calculated decisions about how long the country needs to stay shut—and when it’s okay to open back up. “All this information is still not sufficient to get our arms around the virus. We have statistics which tell us that fewer people are dying now. About the virus itself, though, we know very, very little still, because we don’t know how many people are infected now.”

“We need a representative sample in this country to figure out a range of how many people are infected, how many people have symptoms and don’t, and how many have died.” —Rand McClain, DO

Researchers from the University of Southern California and Los Angeles County Department of Public Health recently tried to pool a smaller model of the “representative sample” Dr. McClain is referring to by using the antibody test results of 3,330 participants to determine how many people in LA had been exposed to the virus. The study indicated that between 2.8 percent and 5.6 percent of those tested may have been infected in early April. And although the study has been criticized for certain biases, it does shed light on the kind of data that could be made available in a nationwide study conducted with sound, FDA-approved tests.

The first-generation HIV antibody testing (introduced in 1985) produced false-positives and underwent five more iterations over 30 years until it became the accurate test it is today. Here’s hoping that in 2020 we can use knowledge from past experiences (and common sense) to make COVID-19 antibody testing efficacious faster and more efficiently.

from Good Advice – Well+Good https://ift.tt/3eI6ejB via IFTTT

#according to health experts #Not all COVID-19 antibody tests are safe or accurate #Good Advice – Wel

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freecityradio · 4 years

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Zahra Moloo on #COVID19 in global south and social movement possibilities at a time of pandemic

Tonight spoke with filmmaker, researcher and activist Zahra Moloo, who reflects on the current #COVID19 crisis. Zahra speaks not only on the possible roles of progressive activists at this time, but also on ways that viewing the global implications of this pandemic speak to global inequalities.

Zahra worked on a really important film project, in collaboration with ETC Group, that critically highlights the role of the Gates Foundation in creating genetically engineered responses to malaria in West Africa, which were protested against by impacted indigenous communities. An important reference today given the role that the Gates foundation is playing in funding a potential COVID-19 vaccine.

Note this interview for the Free City Radio o series was done by phone despite us living in the same neighbourhood in Montreal.

Stefan : Thanks for this, so we have been exchanging during this pandemic about the possibilities toward organizing for change and also the ways that considering the implications of the pandemic diverge in regards to potential impacts in the global north and global south. Could you share any reflections on these points ...

Zahra : Actually this is an opportunity for people to organize and expose what is not working within global systems. It is very, very important for people to organize and I think it must be a time when we are very, very vigilant about seeing which forces, corporations for example, are taking advantage of this crisis.

We don't want to live in a world where major part of the planet isn’t able to deal with a pandemic like this. How will this pandemic hit the poorest countries? We don't know yet, but it doesn't look good.

This entire situation really means we need to demand a more justice world. The questions is what do we demand, how do we communicate those demands, people are really working on this, it is very important.

I think that Astra Taylor and Naomi Klein, calling for debt relief is good, a student debt strike, and also debt more generally, this is good.

Debt relief is an excellent demand. Also we need to think about other demands, debt relief is good for the global north.

In France, this is also a good opportunity, because people are so fed up with the government and there have been mass protests over the past years, so maybe there are possibilities for real change now coming out of this.

Stefan : Thanks for that, we have talked about the difference of reality, in regards to the global south and north, in this pandemic and how demands between two different parts of the world can be complimentary, but are in fact being articulated in very different contexts ...

Zahra : Yes, for the south, the demands are not that different, but the situation is more complicated, because in the U.S. you can appeal to a candidate like Bernie Sanders, who does speak to social movements, but in Kenya there are no major politicians who actually represent social movements.

Also in the context of #Kenya there aren't functioning systems often, like a good health care system, good public institutions in general. Yes, we could cancel debts for southern countries, like Kenya, they could cancel the debt from Kenya to China and other major countries for example, but also we need political change internally within Kenya, change to make sure that if the debt is cancelled that this results in actual changes within Kenya political and economic systems.

I am worried about the future, what is going to happen in the future, what is going to happen in Kenya. Obviously on a personal level I am worried about Kenya, but my family is not living day-to-day, I am also fine, but I am worried about the age and health fragility of my parents in #Nairobi.

Stefan : What are you hearing from your family in Kenya ?

Zahra : In Kenya, I am hearing from my family that cases are going up, that everything is shut down, also the police are involved in shutting down the streets.

Addressing the pandemic within urban poor areas will be a big deal and very difficult. In such areas people can't self isolate, can't stop working, but this isn't a reality only in Kenya, but across the global south, especially within informal urban settlements, like you see in #Haiti for example.

I don't know what people are going to do. Honestly, the health care system, in Kenya and in other parts of East Africa, the health care system is really struggling.

Even soap and water access is an issue within informal city settlements.

In #Iran also, the issue is that many people need to work to put food on the table, so everything is shut down for two weeks, but what will happen to people without financial means.

Al Jazeera English was reporting that the Iranian government can't shut down the economy indefinitely cause people need to work to survive and also the sanctions on Iran are hampering the fight against the pandemic.

In India, many informal workers are going to homeless shelters now in the major cities, because they depend on labour day to day, so they are struggling on a daily level, even despite the lock down in India, how are people going to survive for weeks, or even if this extends to months.

Stefan : On the role of the left and social movements, what do you think can they raise as critiques to the mainstream response to COVID-19 now, but also what can they do directly to respond ? It seems there are different responses happening to that in different of the world, in regards to the left ...

Zahra : Well yes, Naomi Klein is highlighting the issue of debt relief, because that would free up a great deal of funds for people to access. This applies to both the north and south.

Now a lot of people are trying to do organizing online, but this actually brings up issues of surveillance and the control of tech. companies over the communication process.

Stefan : Yes, well activists are use to online for sure, but now zero actual meetings ...

Zahra: Exactly, well imagine only online meetings. Surveillance is a real issue, there are some more secure platforms, but we really need to think about this.

Also, we also need to think about how the tech companies are benefiting from this, how much stronger will they come out from this crisis.

Everyone is being forced to be online now, on Zoom, so everything is moving online. Also for groceries, deliveries, it is all benefiting big companies.

In India, this is potentially an opportunity for more surveillance, I mention India specifically, because the state has been becoming more and more authoritarian under the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

In India, the surveillance state is getting deeper and more repressive over the past year.

In Kenya, people are also facing police violence in terms of curfew and this also speaks to the mistreatment of the urban poor by the police and state security forces, which all predates the epidemic.

Also, in #Colombia, now the paramilitaries are going out and assassinating many indigenous and environmental activists, while the world is focused on the CORNA virus, so this is an issue.

via Amnesty International

Also in the Philippines, this is happening.

info on Bulatlat Multimedia

Stefan : On the role of tech. giants, given it is a crisis, people are going to jump on more immediate options, like zoom, but why is it important for people to support non corporate alternatives and take a few minutes to seek those out ?

Zahra : Do people know there are non corporate alternatives ? I think some people do, but the alternatives need to be promoted. This is important for activists to have conversations without surveillance.

Also these online giants simply do not need more cash.

Also Amazon.com is asking people to donate to the Amazon employee relief fund, this is ridiculous, they are taking advantage of the crisis, they have the funds to pay their workers and compensate them if ill.

Stefan : Yesterday Bill Gates was CNN, talking about the pandemic and the host, Anderson Cooper was addressing Gates as a rational, reasonable, liberal voice, that is also critical of Donald J. Trump, but why is it important to be cautious regarding figures like Gates, you have done direct research into the problematic elements of the work of the Gates foundation in Africa.

Zahra : The Gates Foundation has a huge interest in promoting vaccines. It is where Gates put a great deal of attention. However this is a very privatized model, that looks at private companies driving vaccines or illness, but does not looking at the systemic problems that got us here.

The other interesting thing is that Gates is suggesting and working on right now, is toward a vaccine made out of synthetic materials. Basically they are proposing to engineer vaccines, this is all a very good way for the Gates foundation, by giving 60$ million, toward normalizing synthetic vaccines over addressing the systematic injustices that got us here.

Also this is all a very big opportunity for bio technology to promote its technological and privatized solutions to global crisis.

Stefan : Yes, thinking about the systems at play and the ways that global corporations and financial markets can move to take advantage of the response to this crisis.

Zahra : Yes, well this crisis revels everything that is wrong with the system we live in, on a global level. The lack of funding for public healthcare around the world, the inequality in the world generally. There is a history behind this, in regards to the ways that International Monetary Fund and the World Bank over a couple generations have pushed policies that basically destroyed public health care systems in the global south.

I am just so worries about how the global south will deal with this. People often just don't have the resources to deal with this type of situation, people can't self isolate, in many cases and many busy urban areas don't have easy access to water and soap for everyone, while of course also not having access to good social security, access to good public health care, good jobs with benefits. It is very, very worrying, I am wondering if people will survive when and if it hits many countries of the global south.

People are not making the links to the global systems of injustice, the reason why this virus has come about in this ways has so much to do with the ways that we treat the natural world.

#keyna #india #covid19 #globalsouth #activism #solidarity #colombia #climatechange #cdnpoli #Stefan Christoff

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