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fossadeileonixv · 6 years

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Mercato Madness 2018: The Preview

It’s the mooooost wonderfullllll tiiiiiiiimme of the yeaaaaaarrrrrr.

I’m back, bitties. Took a nice little vacation, got sick as hell towards the end of it, and am recuperating nicely alongside my trusty pit bull, Jazz. And I made it back juuuust in time for the beginning of Mercato Madness (c) Summer 2018. And boy, if you thought we didn’t know what to expect last year, this year could provide you with a different, but equally surprising, unpredictability.

The elephant in the room is of course the club’s financial position. Depending on who you read, and what you want to believe, the club’s economic health is somewhere between concerning and dire. Talk about media agendas all you want, but there isn’t much that I’ve read over the last eight months or so that brings me comfort, and whoever our owner is, his or her scramble to get 10m euro last week, did little to assuage these concerns. With this in mind, this window could either be one that follows the trajectory set last summer, one marked by B&G era thrift shopping, or something in between the two. I tend to believe the latter. So, I’ll go keeper to attacker here, pontificating on the best, worst, and most realistic scenarios are.

Andiamo!

Keeper

BEST CASE: This is certainly up for argument, but I think the best case scenario is Don sold for a hefty (i.e. 50m or higher) sum, relying on Sr. Reina to guide us through the season between the sticks, with Gabriel and Pliz as back-ups. With Milan already committing to Pepe for a considerable salary, having two keepers totaling 10m in wages is wasteful, especially for a club with financial storms looming. Reina is more than capable and can act as a stopgap for a year or two while we develop one of the youngsters, or find another capable keeper.

WORST CASE: Don stays, Reina eats up salary on the bench, Gabriel gets loaned out once again, with A. Donnarumma as third choice. While in a vacuum, this certainly isn’t a bad problem to have with two great keepers and someone’s big brother, for a sixth-place team with the league’s second highest salary, it is incredibly wasteful and demonstrates a lack of forethought by Mirabelli and Fassone. Another worst-case is selling Don for a cut-rate price (40m or less), which while alleviating the Mino-migranes, fails to cash-in on one of the world’s best young players, again highlighting a deficiency in management.

REALISTIC OUTCOME: I’m probably in the minority here, but I think Don stays. The leverage to ask for his market price just isn’t there, with PSG looking to Buffon, and teams like Liverpool and Madrid unwilling to invest at the going rate when considering his age, maturity, and agent. Thus, I think we have another year of Don, with Reina as backup, which like I said above, has both advantages and disadvantages. One of both of the younger keepers may have to be loaned out again, but again, this isn’t a bad problem to have.

Defense

BEST CASE: We keep Rodriguez and Bonucci, Conti and Calabria stay, and we sign a young CB or two to pair alongside Zapata, as well. Musacchio and Gomez are sold outright, Abate opts to play for Montreal Impact in MLS, and Antonelli heads to Parma, becoming a club hero while bopping in a header in the 88′ of the final game of the season to save them from relegation.

WORST CASE: Bonucci and Rodriguez are sold, with the club relying on Zapata or god-knows-who to play alongside Romagnoli and Strinic getting the majority of shifts at left-back with Antonelli signing on for another year. Abate is signed for one more season, just cuz, and Musacchio is loaned out to Real Betis.

REALISTIC OUTCOME: Mirrors the first. I don’t think the club, even with economic troubles, would ship out Bonucci, with other valuable assets they can move on the board having a lesser effect on the end-product. I’ve seen R.R.’s name floated a few times in the transfer rumors, which I think if anyone, would be the most likely to leave. I think this is a mistake as the guy was pretty dependable, but this wouldn’t surprise me. I’m inclined to think Musacchio actually stays, but Abate, Gomez and Antonelli look to tend other pastures.

TR’s Note: The defense is the one area of this club that I feel doesn’t need any tinkering, and believe that Strinic is the only import we’ll see. I’m fine with that.

Midfield

BEST CASE: If I’m in charge? I’m buying at least three mids. A vice-Kessie, A starting left mezzala, and depending on whether or not management and the coaching staff want to commit to Locatelli as a DM, a young, back-up DM. This also is contingent on what formation we employ going forward. Though I think narrow may be the way to go, I’m gonna operate under the notion we stick with the 4-3-3. With that in mind, at the very least you need to add a quality left-mid, with Jack as a back-up to LM as well as LW, someone that has similar qualities to Franck, and someone to back-up Biglia. Badelj would be a nice addition, and of course someone like Torreira or Baselli could slide into the starting trio nicely, with a younger prospect filling out the window. Montolivo terminates his contract, Locatelli and Bonaventura stay, and Mauri returns to Parma providing the assist to Antonelli’s season-saving header.

WORST CASE: Montolivo terminates his contract, Locatelli is loaned with an option to buy back, Jack remains your left mid, and we do little to address the depth issue, signing some 28 year old from a mid-table German club to act as a Jack-of-all-trades backup to every midfield position.

REALISTIC OUTCOME: We sign someone of Badelj or Baselli’s character, Montolivo does terminate his contract, and Bonaventura and Locatelli stay. The depth issue is not really solved, but the overall quality of the starting midfield is leveled up slightly.

TR’s note: Midfield, to me, is the most pressing need for his club. I’d spend the bulk of our kitty on midfield and go for a big name like Kovacic or Torreira if funds permit, and absolutely find someone to give Franck’s poor knees the proper rest they deserve. Not lying when I say 3 or even 4 midfielders would be ideal. Fight me.

Forwards

BEST CASE: Kalinic is sold to China or Russia for something close to what we owe Fiore. Sticking with the 4-3-3, we sign Depay, sell Suso and Silva outright, and bring in someone cheap and or effective. Under this setup, Calhanogu would still operate on the left, hopefully with a little more lateral freedom, but another winger, preferably one that can play either side, would be needed for depth.

WORST CASE: Kalinic stays, Suso is sold to Napoli, Silva is loaned, we sign a run-of-the mill third striker, and no depth is added sans maybe some French winger with tons of speed but not much else.

REALISTIC OUTCOME: One of Kalinic or Silva stays; I tend to believe the Croatian. Silva is sold for slightly less than what we bought, and someone else is brought in to provide competition. Morata remains, thankfully, out of our price range, though it wouldn’t surprise me if we throw everything at him if the cash is available. I think Suso leaves, probably to another Italian club, and we fail to sign any kind of depth for the wing, relying on Jack and Borini to provide cushion.

TR’s take: A competent striker is a must. Young Patrick is, at this juncture of his career, an out-and-out poacher. Someone who can do what Kalinic was supposed to do is needed. This can be done on the cheap, and I think spending 50-60m on someone like Morata or Belotti would be downright stupid. If 4-3-3 is the plan, you need a winger with speed, probably for the right, Suso sold to keep things in equilibrium, a backup winger, and for God’s sake.... get Kalinic as far away from me as possible.

That’s that, folks. Got more coming up in the next few days, and as always, hit us up in the comment section! How do you think this mercato pans out?

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arplis · 5 years

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Arplis - News source https://arplis.com/blogs/news/dream-picture-hanging-hooks

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agilenano · 5 years

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Agilenano - News: Dream Picture Hanging Hooks

Picture Hangers (Universal and Canvas Hangers) may be.

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Agilenano - News from Agilenano from shopsnetwork (4 sites) https://agilenano.com/blogs/news/dream-picture-hanging-hooks

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ergohacks · 6 years

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Headsets aren’t an area where you get many new things. Oh – a new look or slightly refined technology but the overall concept of sticking a tiny speaker in your ear or a slightly larger one over your ears hasn’t changed fundamentally in decades. The AfterShokz Trekz Titanium headset uses a technology which is different – bone conduction. Instead of putting the speaker in your ear it instead rests a plate on the bone just in front of your ear and it vibrates the bone and sends sound directly to the inner ear.

This means that your ears stay open and the earphones don’t make any sound that other people can hear and hence the Titanium’s are aimed at people who exercise outside – joggers and cyclists who need to still be able to hear everything around them and it works better than you would think it does. It’s a genuinely weird sensation to have headphones on and music playing loudly and let be able to hear everyone around you and carry on a conversation. I found I still had a few mental processing problems – particularly if I was trying to listen to a podcast an someone talked to me unexpectedly but for keeping a general awareness around you they work perfectly.

The Titanium has an older style Bluetooth headset design and the reason for this is inherent in the technology – it’s a big clamp around your head to hold the vibrating plates in place. I’d worried that this would be a quick route to a headache but it actually needs less pressure than I’d expected and my glasses turned out to hold them in place perfectly. Lily tried them and had a bit less luck with them – they held perfectly if she didn��t move much such as when she was sitting down but slipped out of optimum position after a few minutes if she moved around. Battery life is quoted at 6 hours and that’s actually a bit pessimistic in my testing and I could usually do around 8.

Music quality is also surprisingly good at low to mid volume. Turn them up all the way and the plates vibrate so much that it feels very odd and if you persist at that volume they work their way slowly out of optimum position.

So is there a bad side? Yes. The radios in the Titaniums are small and the connection they keep to the phone or PC isn’t great. With a clear line of sight it works with no problems but without it breaks up and trips over itself semi-regularly. To be clear this can be triggered when you have your phone in your body and sit down – a distance of less than a metre. If you can live with a couple of breakups an hour it’s not a major problem but it is annoying.

I want to love the AfterShokz Trekz Titanium. The bone conduction works amazingly well, they’re comfortable and their battery life is impressive but their connection problems are a significant problem and just stop it getting an essential rating. Recommended with caveats.

Buy it from Amazon

Price: ± £ 95 Included: Headset, container bag, earplugs, 2 velcro ties and a microUSB cable

Features

Bone conduction is the condition of sound directly to the inner ear through the bones of the skull. It’s been known about as a curiosity for around 100 years but started be used in the late 1970s as specialised hearing aids. In the 80s and 90s it was applied to several environments and became popular with scuba divers and some specialised army units but it wasn’t until the last few years that it’s started to become available for most of us.

Specification

Weight: 36g Colour: Blue, green, pink or grey Range: 10m Battery life: 6 hours with around 2 hours recharge Connectivity: Bluetooth 4.1 Waterproofing: IP55 Sweat resistant Size: Regular or mini Microphone: dual noise cancelling Construction: Titanium frame

Warranty: Two years limited

Requirements

Despite their unusual method of sound production the Titanium’s use a conventional Bluetooth radio and will pair with any compatible source. I’ve paired them with multiple phones, tablets and my laptop without problems.

About Aftershokz

Aftershokz is a small New York based company set up in 2011 that specialises in commercialising bone conduction technology. They currently have four main models available and sell worldwide.

We based our Ergohacks Verdict on three weeks of use. It was kindly provided by Aftershokz in March 2018. This article was first published on 9 April 2018.

AfterShokz Trekz Titanium Headset Headsets aren't an area where you get many new things. Oh - a new look or slightly refined technology but the overall concept of sticking a tiny speaker in your ear or a slightly larger one over your ears hasn't changed fundamentally in decades.

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lorrainecparker · 7 years

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Hands on with the Sony RX0

Last month at Sony Pictures Studios on Stage 23, I was given a few hours to play around with the recently released Sony RX0, priced at $700. There were two pre-lit scenes available to film and photograph, along with a person-sized circular podium to highlight the slow-mo capabilities of the RX0 by spinning it around the podium as quickly as possible on a sort of selfie stick. The footage was reminiscent of the comedian intros from Ari Shaffir’s This is Not Happening.

The first thing I did was pull out my Sony X3000 Action Cam and compare sizes. The RX0 is more GoPro-like in size and shape than its Action Cam brother, but constructed out of aircraft-grade aluminium instead of plastic. The front of the camera is optical glass instead of something like Gorilla Glass, meaning that while the camera body can take a 10ft fall just fine, the glass will absolutely shatter. While Sony has made it easy to replace via removal of the 4 front screws, replacement glass will run you an eye-popping $100 each. I can see people finding similar-thickness plastic sheets and cutting them down to size rather than replacing the front.

I was personally relieved to find the bottom of the camera has a standard ¼” screw hole, just like the X3000, which allows for mounting on standard camera mounts, mono or tripods, cinearms, etc. I hate the GoPro’s proprietary mount, but that’s just me. The camera is also waterproof down to 33ft/10m.

The immediate comparisons with Sony’s Action Cam line kind of ends there. As Sony themselves have stated, this is not an advancement of that line. Instead, it’s more or less a miniaturization of the CyberShot series, specifically the RX100V. This camera shares its 1” sensor, menu design, and many of the same features with that product.

In that vein, this is not a “set it and forget it” style camera as the body size would suggest. You’re going to need to adjust your settings as you would with any camera for the best results in any given shooting situation. While rather tiny, the menu is extensive enough to offer full control of your image without taking up 18 pages. The button layout is intuitive with a standard complement of up/down, left/right, select, and menu buttons. The only thing that wasn’t obvious was the fact that you have to hit “left” when outside the menu to change shooting modes. Here I was hitting “right” over and over, thinking either direction would offer that functionality. After talking to some of the other people at the event, I discovered that was a common hiccup.

Like many cameras, the RX0 comes with auto modes for photo and video, but just like those cameras, the results can be hit or miss. Due to the 24mm equivalent f/4 lens, in a dark situation you’re either boosting ISO or lowering shutter speed. From my experience neither offered an ideal result. However, when shooting the pre-lit scenes, the photos looked great with the video just looking above-average. By comparison, the X3000 & RX100V have f/2.8 & f/1.8-2.8 aperture lenses respectively.

Interestingly, the video modes use the full 1” sensor whereas the photo modes use a smaller section. I shot the photos shown below in JPEG+RAW but was unable to edit the RAW images in Photoshop when I got home, for whatever reason. After updating to the most recent version, neither Bridge nor Photoshop could read the RX0’s .ARW files, so I’m assuming there’s an update on the horizon. I’m potentially doing something wrong, but I don’t know what that could be. I wasn’t able to convert the ARW file to something more universal like DNG either, using Adobe’s conversion tool.

[unedited jpegs straight out of the RX0] It was at this point that I found myself having trouble pinning down what this camera was for. The X3000 is a great action cam due to its ease of use, wide FOV, BOSS Optical Image Stabilization, and can be trusted to get the shot even in surprisingly dark scenes (even better than the GoPro, which isn’t saying much). The RX100V is a great pocket camera utilizing a tried-and-true sensor pedigree, great functionality, and reasonable size. Imagine buying an RX100 but the screen is 2” and you have to make all your adjustments in menus. A little annoying, right? While you can set custom functions to the buttons easing some of that discomfort, judging focus is near impossible, and so much of the screen is taken up by information readouts that you’re really only able to use it for framing. In essence, the RX0 is either a difficult to use RX100V or an over-complicated X3000 with a nicer sensor. So where does the RX0 succeed? Well, the half-press to focus (a feature on every camera save action cams) was a welcome surprise. While it can only record 1080p internally, it can do so up to an impressive 960fps which is pretty uncommon and oft-asked for feature. If you want 4K (UHD) you can attach it to a recorder via HDMI, but then its form factor becomes sort of a moot point and it can’t do high frame rates at that size anyway. To be fair, I never shoot in 4K so that wouldn’t bother me too much. It also shoots to common MicroSD cards instead of something proprietary, which is a big plus, and does so in standard formats like AVCHD, MP4 and Sony’s own XAVC-S codec. Additionally, it has Slog2, which for professional video is basically a requirement.

Amusingly, among photo profiles like “Vivid” and “Neutral” there’s “Autumn Leaves” which I’ve never seen before and is such a specific thing to program in that I’m not entirely sure who thought we needed that, but there it is.

Just like the X3000, the PlayMemories Mobile app is easy to use and works with little to no fuss. Even with (let’s say) 30 to 50 different RX0s all in play at once in the studio, mine never lost connection. At worst it was a little choppy, which may just be the result of my beta Android firmware. Unlike the X3000, I was unable to transfer video to my phone via the app (photo worked just fine), but I was told that functionality would be available soon. Putting the RX0’s SD card in my X3000, I was able to kick the videos over to my phone without issue. While the UI is a little bland, the PlayMemories app absolutely destroys whatever GoPro is calling its current iteration and all previous versions. It’s actually nice to use, and one of the best things I can say about it is that it just works. That means a lot.

This isn’t a bad camera, just a confusing one. I’ve come to the conclusion that Sony has made this for multi-cam situations and crash cams, as evidenced by the ability to control up to 5 cameras with the app alone and by some of their literature. A multi-camear “bullet time” demonstration was quietly going on at one of the scenes. I’d guess they’re also aiming at the 360 Video market (NOT to be confused with VR because they are not the same thing) as people are using A7s’ and RX100s for this as we speak.

All things considered, if you’re in that sort of crash cam situation or the small form-factor and the ability to adjust settings for specific shooting scenarios is required, this might be a good camera to look at. If you’re in a cinema scenario and have the time to dial in settings, then it would be a decent choice. However, in most situations, it’s really not a replacement for your GoPro. Aside from not being very wide-angle, you can’t strap the RX0 to your Snowboard helmet and just start riding due to all the aforementioned menu-fuddling in the same way you can’t just turn on a FS700 and just start shooting. If you’re thinking this will replace your GoPro, you’re going to have a bad time.

The post Hands on with the Sony RX0 appeared first on ProVideo Coalition.

First Found At: Hands on with the Sony RX0

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ronaldmrashid · 8 years

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Protect Your Net Worth From Financial Distortion

Back in 2007, I invested in a private company called Bulldog Gin. A friend from William & Mary had co-founded the company after several dark years in banking and asked me to invest. At the time, I was making good money as a 29-year-old third-year VP in banking, so I figured why not. I believed in his drive and I liked the idea of making gin cool like SKYY did for vodka.

Sometime over the past five years, I started believing I had invested $75,000 in Bulldog Gin at a $10M valuation. When Campari Group announced recently they were to acquire Bulldog Gin for $55M plus an attractive earn-out paid in 2021, I was pumped! I mentally wrote off the $75,000 investment from my net worth because it was made so long ago. After about five years of zero dividends, you start losing hope your money is ever coming back.

When I dug out the capitalization table from 10 years ago, I realized I had not invested $75,000 in Bulldog Gin. Instead, I had only invested $60,000. Drat. $60,000 is still a decent amount of money to invest in a private company, but overestimating my investment by 25% is a egregious financial miscalculation.

I’ve always wondered how so many startup companies could “miscalculate” their finances so badly. For example, in a Startup Podcast episode about the now defunct food delivery company, Bento Now, the founders said one month they spent $70,000 more than they realized. I mean, how does $70,000 just go unaccounted for? But here I was doing the same thing, given $70,000 was roughly 30% for than their budget.

If you’ve ever seen the movie Memento, you realize that one small lie or factual error starts compounding on itself until it becomes one monumental error. What I think happened was I had bought $2,500 in shares in an earlier round from a colleague when Bulldog Gin was valued at only $5M (I think). For some reason, I just rounded up my investment to $75,000. Then I checked with my colleague whom I bought the shares from and he said I had only bought $1,700 worth of shares! See how the errors start stacking up? We had a notarized document of the transaction he PDFed over.

Given Bulldog Gin is selling for 5.5X more than my purchase price, the $13,700 differential in what I thought I invested could end up being a $75,350 miscalculation to my net worth. I like to call my situation an example of financial distortion. This phenomena is more common than we all think.

Financial Distortion Can Really Hurt You

Bullwhip effect where manufacturer produces way more than customer demand due to distortion

My Bulldog Gin investment is considered one financial account on my Personal Capital dashboard because it is one tax filing (K-1). Given I’ve got about 40 financial accounts now, the amount of financial distortion in my net worth can really add up over time if I’m not correctly tracking everything. Let’s say each miscalculation is roughly $5,000, we’re talking $200,000 in distortion that can equate to millions of dollars of non-existant money in the future.

Examples Of Financial Distortion

Can you imagine in 20 years thinking you only have two years left to go until the mortgage is paid off, but you actually have another 10 years left due to some HELOC or cash-out refinance you forgot about? Seems impossible, but this is exactly what a relative of mine thought once she retired from her 25-year career as a $38,000 a year university healthcare administrator. She just never bothered to check the remaining principal balance in her mortgage all these years. Now her cash flow isn’t going to give her the retirement she had imagined.

Can you imagine thinking you only spent $500,000 for your house because you somehow forgot to add the $100,000 in home improvement costs you’ve made over the years? When it comes time to sell, you’ll miscalculate your profits and may very well pay more taxes than you should have.

What about collectobles your grandfather first showed you decades ago. When a distant relative died, there was an expectation by his children that his stamp collection was worth far more than reality. There was even some internal bickering on who got to keep the coveted collection. When they finally went to an appraiser, they realized the stamp collection was worth 80% less than they thought.

It’s just too hard to keep track of all your financial accounts without using an Excel spreadsheet or a free financial tool. In some cases, you may have underestimated a positive investment or overestimated a cost. But for some reason, we tend to overestimate good outcomes and underestimate bad outcomes.

Why Does Financial Distortion Occur?

Scene from Memento

I can see three main reasons for financial distortion:

1) Basic forgetfulness. The older you get, the easier it is to forget. There are more things that have happened in a 50-year-old’s life than in a 25-year-old’s life. In most cases, financial distortion isn’t intentional, it’s just what happens when you start rounding up or down a particular financial event to cope with all the data. It should be harder to forget the cost of larger ticket items like a TV, car, or house. But it still happens all the time.

2) Ego. We like to attribute greater amounts towards positive investments and lesser amounts towards negative investments. It’s just like attributing a successful outcome to our own abilities and downplaying another person’s successful outcome to luck.

When Campari Group agreed to partner with Bulldog Gin a couple years ago, I started feeling good about my investment again. As a result, I started rounding up my investment amount to $75,000 when people asked me about my private equity experience. Perhaps if there was bad news two years ago, I may have rounded down my investment to $50,000. Not sure.

3) Miscalculation. It’s easy to say you made a $500,000 profit on a house purchased for $1,000,000 and sold for $1,500,000, 10 years later. The reality is there’s a bunch of maintenance, interest, insurance, amortization recapture, taxation, and other selling expenses that need to be accounted for. By the time you actually get the proceeds, you’re going to have much less than $500,000 in envisioned profits.

The same goes for buying a stock for $50 and selling for $100 over a 10 year period. If the stock was also paying a 3% annual dividend yield every year, your total return is closer to 135% instead of 100%.

Finally, when starting a business, we may miscalculate the cost of our time in getting everything off the ground by paying ourselves next to nothing. If you don’t pay any of your employees, you can certainly improve your margins. But how long will that last until your employees flee?

Be Careful About Private Equity

I don’t want everybody to start investing in private deals due to the success of the Snapchat IPO and this pedestrian Bulldog Gin investment. Unless you’re OK with having zero liquidity for 10 years and being fine with losing 100% of your money 90% of the time, I would stick to public equity investing.

I’m disappointed I’m not making as much in Bulldog Gin as I thought I would even after I expected to lose all my money. But the reality is, I’m probably going to make far less than a simple 5.5X multiple on my purchase valuation due to dilution, accounts payable, and company selling expenses. I’ll be lucky to earn a 2.5X return after 10 years, which isn’t that great since that’s not too much better than the S&P with way more risk and zero liquidity. Then of course there is tax to pay.

Once I get the final numbers, I’ll detail exactly how much a $61,700 investment in a gin company valued at $10M, 10 years ago nets an investor once it sells for $55M. In the meantime, conduct a proper net worth audit to make sure all your numbers make sense today. You don’t want to wake up in the future confused and disappointed.

Readers, have you discovered any financial distortions of your own? Why do you think they happened? Please share!

I just realized something. Back in 2006, Anshuman (CEO of Bulldog Gin) and I were chatting about the potential of gin back in 2006 given Campari Group had acquired 100% of SKYY Vodka for big bucks several years earlier. “Why can’t they buy us one day?” he said. It is surreal that 11 years later, Campari Group is now buying his company based on a detailed vision that was relentlessly executed. You seldom hear an entrepreneurial story pan out exactly the way it was planned.

from http://www.financialsamurai.com/protect-your-net-worth-from-financial-distortion/

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