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thesportssoundoff · 5 years

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The UFC Released A Schedule; Let’s Play Matchmaker For It

(As always, this shit is tiring but also a lot of fun. If you read this, I appreciate it. It's a lot of work to even try to play around with this stupidity but I also think having to do this exercise makes you a teensy bit smarter, if only because you gain an appreciation for its difficulty.)

Joey

November 12th

The UFC unveiled it's 2019 early schedule slate and it is in so many words, an attack on you, me, the world of MMA, the universe as a whole and all we love dear. It's a loaded slate of 11 fight cards compared to 8 in 2017 and 9 in 2018. It's the debut of the ESPN era where 42 guaranteed shows at 12 fights a pop are coming our way with rumors of as many as 4-5 Fight Pass slates as well. The UFC will be on ESPN, ESPN+ and PPV from locales like Brooklyn, Brazil, Australia, London and Arizona with plenty more to be announced in the coming weeks obviously. The past year whenever the UFC has rolled out their scheduling in THIS format, I've tried to play the best Sean Shelby/Mick Maynard I can and matchmake for the events. It is a long painful process and if you're reading this, I hope you're prepared for me to do it again.

Couple o' caveats before I begin:

-I am not predicting any flyweight fights. Until they book a single fight in 2019 at the weight, I'm assuming it's gone.

-We're rolling with what we got. No GSP, no Diaz Brothers. no Rumbles bails out, none of that. We got what we got.

-Just doing co-mains and main events. If I got a PPV fight or two in mind, it'll be in the overview of it.

-Don't expect a non-Brazilian main event in Brazil or so on so forth. There ARE rules to this game, ya goons.

Ready?

January 19th UFC on ESPN+/ESPN Barclays Center Brooklyn New York

ESPN+ Main Event: Anderson Silva vs Israel Adesanya Co Main Event: Yoel Romero vs Anthony Smith

ESPN Main Event: Rachael Ostovich vs Paige Van Zant Co Main Event: Cub Swanson vs Jeremy Stephens

At the press conference, Dana White said somethings at UFC 230 were going to lead into what would happen for this card. Given the amount of middleweights on the show, I suppose that's where the action is. We know Yoel Romero has a signed contract for Jan 19th so right off the jump, the first assumption is Romero vs Costa which, I suppose, is the right fight to make at least until Ariel Helwani broke news that Paolo Costa is hurt----again. The question I have (and perhaps will continue to have) is where Anderson Silva fits into the discussion. Silva is rumored to be returnign in January LIKELY for this card. Silva vs Israel Adesanya sounds very interesting and I'd be 100% with it. It would be a tremendous treat for striking fans and is the perfect use of both guys. My concern is that Adesanya, Paula Costa and Jacare Souza are all basically jockeying for the back up spot for the February show from Australia. It makes FAR more sense to put Adesanya there vs JAG and roll with something else for Silva----but you're not going to get a lot of these opportunities. Silva vs Adesanya will probably draw more eyeballs to your ESPN+ debut than any other fight you could come up with that isn't a title fight (and for the record, I bet the app will get a few title fights here or there). More on that in a pinch. Keeping Yoel Romero on the card and finding somebody else to fight him keeps a dude who just headlined a PPV on your undercard in a somewhat premier role. I am all aboard on Romero vs anybody but let's go with Yoel Romero going UP in weight to try his hand at 205 lbs vs Anthony Smith. Let's roll. The ESPN "prelims" need to be treated like a main card due to the attention it's going to receive and while PVZ vs Ostovich might sell folks on your app, PVS vs Ostovich probably gets more eyeballs on your ESPN debut on a network. Go with that because it's a lie to assume you can come up with another fight to garner that level of attention.

UFC 223 January 26th Honda Center Anaheim, California

Main Event: TJ Dillashaw vs Henry Cejudo Co-Main Event: Robbie Lawler vs Ben Askren

This one is I guess pretty much locked up. The UFC isn't going to bring Ben Askren in without the plans to showcase him and a co-main under this kind of a title fight makes some sense. Personally I'd go with something else BUT I'm also not sure what would fit better. If they're committed to Askren fighting for a title, might as well co-main event him. Cruz vs Lineker is a tremendous #2 fight with the idea that a guy can jump up in the case of an injury to Cejudo or something of that ilk. Wouldn't surprise me if they roll out a title fight to protect them in the event that fight falls through BUT I'm not sure we're going to get one of those. Your PPV main card could look something like TJ/Cejudo, Lawler/Askren, Till/Mike Perry, Cruz/Lineker and a filler fifth fight. Not awful but probably not the greatest shakes either.

UFC on ESPN+ Feb 2nd Centro de Formação Olímpica Fortaleza, Brazil

Main Event: Jose Aldo vs Donald Cerrone Co-Main Event: Demian Maia vs Diego Sanchez

Brazilian Fight Nights often times suffer from cards that are sliced and diced and picked apart before fight time comes around. The UFC's got an easy one to deal with here as apparently Aldo vs Cerrone was in the works once upon a time. Aldo has said he's waiting to see if Holloway or Ortega wins to make a move to 155 lbs but my belief and hope is that he'll simply make the decision to go up 10 lbs regardless. The co-main event can just be a fun time. Demian Maia has said that he's retiring at the end of his UFC deal so let's just give him safe and fun fights. Watching Maia vs Woodley, Covington and Usman combined with the losses from the top guys he beat gives off the impression that his run to the title shot was very much the work of some amazingly fun yet brief smoke and mirrors. Maia vs Sanchez is a rare "fun" fight that sort of protects both guys and could give way to some intriguing grappling exchanges. Let's not beat the devil out of Demian just yet. Throw in your usual collection of good solid Brazilians on the undercard (Thiago Santos will show up here for sure, I'd imagine Shoeface and Lil Nog will as well) and you're on your way to something good.

UFC 234 February 9th Rod Laver Arena Sydney, Australia

Main Event: Robert Whittaker vs Kelvin Gastelum Co-Main Event: Cain Velasquez vs Either Tai Tuiavasa or the winner of Curtis Blaydes/Francis Ngannou

There are very few fights I'm as intrigued about as Whittaker vs Gastelum. On paper, that's a fantastic fight well worthy of a main event spot. It's the confirmed headliner so there's not much to play with there. I originally figured Rose vs Andrade would make sense here but there's a problem; Rose Namajunas says she's not going to be ready to go until the Spring. Andrade vs Suarez as an interim title fight would be nice and all but I imagine most fans would reject that fight on principle alone. Let's dream big and by big I mean HW. Cain Velasquez is APPARENTLY healthy and ready to fight soon for the UFC. Per Javy Mendez, Cain and the UFC are wrapping up a new deal and once that's done, Cain's getting brought back out for a fight. I don't TRUST that but Cain vs anybody is a fantastic co-main event and would give Australia something nifty and different. I don't need to see Cain vs JDS IV especially since both men are cooked and Stipe Miocic has a more important role to fill. That means that Tai if he beats JDS or the winner of Blaydes vs Ngannou can get the Cain fight instead. Rounding out the main card, I've got my eyes on Jacare as the back up for the main event. While UFC booking says Jacare gets the best MW available (because why would we do something simple?), I'm giving Jacare a soft touch for doing me a favor and staying on the show. Italian Alessio Di Chirico is coming off a win and is a weak-ish enough grappler that I could see that being easy work for Jacare. Ross Pearson is bound to show up on here somewhere (it's the way of the world) and the same goes for Tyson Pedro (fighting in early December). Wouldn't snub my nose at maybe one more Mark Hunt old dude HW fight either vs another old dude (Arlovski?). Also if Volkanovski wins vs Chad Mendes and is fresh enough to return around this time? Put him in the showcase spot.

UFC on ESPN February 17th Talking Stick Casino Phoenix, Arizona

Main Event: Tony Ferguson vs Dustin Poirier Co-Main Event: Frankie Edgar vs Josh Emmett

The UFC's official OFFICIAL debut on ESPN comes in February in Arizona so let's go out there and give us some of that fresh out the oven violence for fight fans. Let's say Khabib Nurmagomedov gets suspended for six months from the date of UFC 228. That puts him in line-ish to fight in April which is basically the cut off point before he takes off for Ramadan. It would be doable but a tight squeeze for the UFC to pull that off, right? Okay NOW let's say he gets suspended for eight months. An eight month suspension is basically a year long suspension since it'll take Khabib into Ramadan and Khabib tends to re-emerge into the September to December months. As such, Khabib could be out into "it's reasonable to have an interim title" range. The same goes for a year long suspension or potentially even longer. With the lay out as it is, Tony Ferguson vs Dustin Poirier makes a lot of sense as a potential interim title fight. Tony Ferguson is the unofficial official UFC lightweight champion while Dustin's never been hotter as a fighter. The co-main event just feels like a good way to get Edgar back into the mix vs a guy who has some steam on him. Holloway vs Ortega, Moicano vs Bektic, Volkanovski vs Mendes sucks up six of the top featherweights and I've seen Edgar beat Swanson twice and Stephens once (and I kinda booked them against one another but shhhhhh!). That leaves very little that's appealing for Edgar at 145 lbs and the idea of doing a fun as shit Edgar vs Cruz fight at 145 lbs probably has very little zest with fans PLUS Cruz is fighting in December. The only other option I felt moderately interested in seeing Edgar face would be Josh Emmett. Emmett is coming off a loss but he did headline on Fox (and was a co-main), he's got some spark behind his name and I feel very comfortable and confident that it'll at least be a somewhat captivating fight on paper. As for the rest of the main card? I don't have anything definitive in mind given how loaded November and December are for the UFC. If you forced me to flesh out six fights, it might look something like this:

Ferguson/Poirier Edgar/Emmett Mackenzie Dern/Felice Herrig Aljamain Sterling/Rani Yahya Gian Villante/Khalil Rountree (Because deep down inside of my soul, I really do hate all of you and myself)

That's assuming they do five fights. If they do four, scratch that last one and thank me for it.

UFC on ESPN+ February 23rd Scotttrade Center St. Louis, Missouri

Main Event: Justin Gaethje vs the winner of Dan Hooker/Edson Barboza Co-Main Event: Marlon Moraes vs Raphael Assuncao II

The UFC hasn't announced a venue for this yet so we're playing a little bit of God here. There are heavy rumors that this show is bookmarked for South Korea but if that were the case then the UFC Would be going Korea, Australia and Brazil in a span of a mouth and that doesn't seem overly likely. If it was up to me, the main and co-main event here would be swapped and reversed. The only way you're going to get bantamweights accepted as main eventers is to roll them out and see what happens. Assuncao vs Moraes II is supposedly a fight the UFC is working on and both guys are #1 contender types in a division hungry FOR a number one contender. Feels like a fair and easy fight to make but ALAS----welcome to MMA where everything is fine until it isn't. Figuring that the desire to have a "big" main event trumps logic and common sense, even for a digital streaming app, let's go with what I think is a perfectly acceptable headliner of Justin Gaethje vs the winner of Barboza vs Hooker. Gaethje has main evented in three of his four UFC fights so he's clearly a guy the company has faith in in that spot. Barboza is a proven headliner and IF Hooker beats Edson then there's no doubting where he should be ranked and who he should wind up facing. That main event just feels right in the UFC's never ending division of great fights. Moraes vs Assuncao II is a perfect co-main event, teeth firmly grinding together as I type it.

UFC 235 March 2nd T-Mobile Arena

Main Event: Daniel Cormier vs Brock Lesnar OR Stipe Miocic Co-Main Event: Tyron Woodley vs Colby Covington

The main event feels like a lock for DC's final fight before he either goes off to work as a WWE commentator or replaces Dana White as the face of the UFC while Dana takes a more behind the scenes role in the company. Despite Cormier saying he'd fight Jones again at LHW, I don't see that ever being the case just due to the weight cut. Not cutting to LHW has been such a positive for DC that he has joked (perhaps?) that the lack of a weight cut has opened the door for him to extend his career if he wanted to. That means either Brock or Stipe is getting the call to face Cormier. My immediate thought is that they will do everything in their power to get Brock vs DC in March. Why? Because if both guys are retiring then you're just free to do whatever. It's sort of like how Bisping turned down Vitor as a retirement fight when both were looking for one last fight; what's the downside to cheating if you're going to be gone anyways? As for the co-main event, we can't avoid this forever. At some point, Tyron Woodley vs Colby Covington is coming our way and our collective asses are going to have to deal with that. It's an intriguing fight I suppose inside the cage but at the end of the day, there's simply no way to workaround the ugliness that'll follow it outside of it. And just for the sake of funsies, add a third title fight here for good measure. Give me the winner of Jonna/Shevchenko vs the winner of Eye/Chookagian in December. Feels like everything should match up in a timely fashion there. Hell I wouldn't even be totally opposed to Nicco Montano getting the shot here either. Throw in Michelle Waterson vs Livia Souza and Chris Weidman's debut at 205 lbs vs Misha Cirkunov and we are happily off to the races.

UFC on ESPN+ March 9th Boardwalk Hall Atlantic City, New Jersey

Main Event: Cody Garbrandt vs Jimmie Rivera Co-Main Event: Dominick Reyes vs Jan Blachowicz

Again, no location is listed here so we're left to play creative games with locations. The UFC has agreements in place to run shows in China and Russia twice a year (in theory) but they also have deals with Singapore (normally in June) and Atlantic City. Let's keep it in the States and turn our attention to Atlantic City. AGAIN the only way you're going to get bantamweights respected is if you give them main event opportunities. I would've gone Cruz/Lineker winner vs Garbrandt but I'd imagine the winner of Cruz vs Lineker is the fast track candidate for the bantamweight title fight. Garbrandt needs a break from TJ Dillashaw and Cruz----and a fight with Jimmie Rivera feels a bit like a safe and secure rebound fight. Rivera is probably the easiest of the available top 5 guys and I'd like to see if a refreshed Garbrandt could handle Rivera's pressure and crisp combinations. The co-main feels like a damn good fight that even Reyes has chimed in about. Dom Reyes wants this to be a main event but I'm more committed to helping improve the imagery of bantamweights as main eventers than I am in giving Reyes a main event spot. He doesn't need it as much as bantamweight overall needs it.

UFC on ESPN+ March 16th The 02 Arena London, England

Main Event: Darren Till vs Derek Brunson Co-Main Event: Marcin Tybura vs Alexander Volkov

Guys like Jimi Manuwa, LEon Edwards (the hell do you find a spot for him on these shows?), Arnold Allen and the wealth of other good European fighters figure to be on here somewhere. This is where not having a Mousasi type hurts because you could willingly plug him in here at any spot and he'll be a reputable international draw. For me, give me Till vs Brunson in a test to see whether Darren Till is ready for the move up to 185 lbs. Brunson is sort of the Mr. Reliable a la Uriah Hall who the UFC calls on when they need a guy with some clout who can pop in and do a deal. The co-main is just the usual international bit; two big European heavyweights being told to go out there and throw hands at one another. Sneak in Overeem somewhere on this main card in an easier fight (Shamil Abdurakhimov, lookin at you!) and you've got a pretty decent top of the billing for a return to the UK. Leon Edwards is the one guy I kind of lack a spot for; Edwards was supposed to fight a bunch of different guys but the UFC has basically hidden him out in Europe (with a pinch hit in Brazil or Asia) so it's hard to find a good spot for him. Just talking out loud here on that one but maybe the loser of Usman vs RDA? I can't see RDA being willing to go to Europe but he fought in Mexico and Singapore recently so perhaps the travel isn't going to be THAT big of a deal. Also I assume this is where we'll see the return of Gokhan Saki despite him being MIA for what feels like a century now. Mairbek Taisumov vs David Teymur would be a dandy too.

UFC on ESPN+ March 23rd American Airlines Center Dallas, Texas

Main Event: Holly Holm vs Amanda Nunes/Cris Cyborg Co-Main Event: Yair Rodriguez vs Ricardo Lamas

I am going to BET you that ESPN has some "You'll get a title fight" assurances from the UFC. Just a random guess. With Amanda Nunes bottoming out on PPV with under 100K buys vs Rocky Pennington and Cyborg always one foot in, one foot out the door, maybe this is where you use your digital platform to help make some folks happy. Holly Holm is (usually) always really good at attracting eyeballs to her fights in some form or fashion. Consider that she sold 200K+ buys with GDR as a headliner for the love of all that's holy (with some help from Anderson Silva too) and remember the numbers she's drawn on free TV. Holm vs Nunes is a fresh fight at 135 lbs that would/could make folks happy on all fronts. It's a respectable main event. Cyborg vs Holm 2 could follow a similar suit as a "big" fight main event given to fans for $4.99 a month. It's an enticer and perhaps that ESPN+ sub count means more to ESPN (and the UFC) than whatever rating you pop the week AFTER this one. Things don't always make sense in MMA anyways. Yair vs Lamas is a fight the UFC has tried to make apparently three times before and so now I imagine is as good a time as any to pull it off. Yair's stock will never be higher and Lamas seems to be on the downswing of things in his career potentially. Maybe that's a fight you can pull off and feel good about. Also I imagine March is more than enough time for Derrick Lewis to heal up and grace us all with his wonderful presence

UFC on ESPN March 30th SAP Center San Jose, California

Main Event- Luke Rockhold vs Paulo Costa Co-Main Event- Anthony Pettis vs Nik Lentz

And so we end this long and painful march towards the end of the "official" calendar with one more show on ESPN. I feel like at this point the "obvious" fights are exhausted and you're left to try and get creative with a smidge of spots that make sense for an ESPN headliner. The one fight that remains that I'd feel most comfortable with is this one; a clash between rising MW contender Paulo Costa and longtime stalwart and guy who seems too stubborn to cut to 205 Luke Rochold. In reality, it's a pretty fair match up for both guys. Costa gets to chase the big "name" that eluded him and after pulling out of two fights and struggling with injuries, it makes sense that Rockhold's return would be a bit more subdued. Rockhold is still a guy who can draw eyes to TV sets and so Rockhold vs Costa on "free" TV feels like a bit of a dandy for fans. As far as a co-main event for the ole boys at ESPN? Kinda stuck. At this point I'm projecting 10 events (and like four months into the future) so it's not exactly the easiest deal in the world. As such how about Anthony Pettis vs Nik Lentz? Pettis is still a name who can be relied upon for some semblance of notoriety and Nik Lentz is one of the few dudes at 155 lbs he hasn't fought quite yet. Most of the fun exciting LWs I believe Pettis has either fought or has passed on as well given that he turned down Mairbek Taisumov (not the worst idea), Kevin Lee (for UFC 228) and so Lentz feels like a fair shake in giving Pettis someone he COULD beat while also presenting challenges to him. Throw in Ovince St. Preux somewhere and give us the latest from Cat Zingano and I'm cool with that.

#MMA #UFC #Fight Nights #2019 #Match Making

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