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sirenjose · 8 months

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Lily Backstory Analysis

Lily’s family is an old and wealthy one. Her father is the “unappreciated and unloved” 2nd son but has enough wealth to give Lily a carefree childhood. Her parents and older brother are passionate about sports, with her father’s dream being to organize a “world-famous horse racing event”, which is likely a major part of the reason why her brother becomes a highly anticipated jockey as soon as he reaches adulthood. Lily as the only daughter is pampered by her brother and parents, causing her to develop a “naïve, stubborn, and arrogant personality”.

Eventually, Lily’s father is able to establish the “Barriere Family Sports Show” by the time Lily turns 16.

Unfortunately, the day (which may also be Lily’s birthday) the “lavishly funded new horse racing series” begins, “a horse went out of control, causing a stampede”. As a result, Simon ends up falling off his own horse and is seriously injured: “he was left paralyzed on one side, regressed to the mental capacity of a young child, and lost the ability to speak”. He’s sent to a care facility by his parents afterwards.

It isn’t specified whose horse it is, so there’s a good chance it wasn’t Simon’s horse, but his horse was affected by what was going on.

Considering the Kreiburg Racecourse also reference a horse going out of control and causing a (fatal) stampede, and how Lily’s father was never said to own the track, only that he hosted it, there’s a good chance the Kreiburg Racecourse is where the “Barriere Family Sports Show” took place. According to the headline for the Kreiburg Racecourse incident, as well as from Ashes of Memory part 1, it’s likely that the horse that went out of control and started the stampede was a white horse, and Simon’s horse was brown.

Due to the incident at the track, Lily’s father was “ousted” from the family. He couldn’t accept this, and turned to alcoholism in his anger at being kicked from the family, sorrow over his son’s accident, as well as frustration with his new financial problems. In his drunkenness, he subjects Lily and her mother to physical abuse, though he “repent[s] remorsefully when sober”, turning Lily’s “once happy family… into a living hell”.

Lily’s father is the source of several of the scars we see on her, including the fairly visible one we can see across her nose.

Lily’s only respite from this “hell” was when she went to visit Simon at the care facility, cheering him on “just as she used to at the racetrack”. We can see clearly how much she cares for Simon, as well as how traumatized she was over his accident and subsequent events based on Lily’s trait “All Thumbs” stating “The Cheerleader suffers from early psychosis caused by childhood trauma and is unable to accurately discern her surroundings” (aka, her perception of reality is messed up).

While she’s visiting Simon, she ends up befriending “a child of the same age who, after learning what Lily was going through, offered her some advice as a ‘peer’”.

Based on what little we can see from Lily’s trailer, it is highly likely the person she met was Galatea, based on similarities including the wheelchair, IV wrapped around their arm, and similar material where we can see the person’s knees/legs (as well as a similar build it seems).

There’s also how Lily after meeting with this person changes her appearance slightly so she has very similar marks under her eyes and similar lipstick smear (on the same side of her face even).

Galatea we know ended up in that wheelchair after her father threw her statue "off the terrace" and she jumped after it. Following this, as her parents noticed her talking to her statues, they put her in an asylum. There’s a good chance she might’ve been at the same facility as Simon, at least before being sent to the asylum.

We see it is after this meeting that Lily puts on Simon’s cap and, in the trailer, begins to dance around.

Regarding the “peer” advice, it is right after this that it states “shortly after, Lily’s father met his demise, breaking his neck while drunk on his way home”. Considering what we know about Galatea, as well as what we see in Lily’s trailer as she’s dancing around, I do believe it’s possible the “advice” Galatea gave involved suggesting Lily kill her father, or do something that’d lead to his death.

Especially as, in Lily’s trailer, as she’s dancing around, we see her toss 1 of her pom poms into the air, see it turn into a bottle, at which point the shadow of her father appears as if he’s falling, and the bottle shatters where his head would’ve been, before turning back into her pom pom.

The reason I find this suspicious is because of several points. First because of how the bottle breaks right where his head would be. Second is because the “bottle” that used to be her pom pom, which she was holding, and after the bottle disappears, it turns back into a pom pom in her hand. Which makes me think its possible Lily had been “holding” that “bottle” and broke it over her father’s head while he was drunk. Third, there’s also how Lily is seen smiling in a bit of a crazy manor as this is happening (happy at finally being freed from him?). Finally comes again from the trailer and how we hear, after she comments Simon can no longer hear, that she cant hear either.

This relates to how, in the trailer she commented about her father, who she refers to as a “monster, “growling at me”, as well as how the official announcement for Lily’s trailer (https://twitter.com/IdentityVJP/status/1690181309518508032) says her home was a "castle", destroyed by Simon's accident, ending her happy life. Her father was a "monster" in that "crumbling castle", just like we hear in her trailer. It ends by saying, one day, she no longer heard the "voice" of that monster. Aka, her father is dead, and the way she phrases it feels like there’s a good opening that she is the reason her father has finally been silenced.

I mean, calling her home a castle that a monster lives in, and with how her perception of reality is messed up, she might want to kill the monster in her castle, like in a typical fairy tale.

With her father dead, her mother is asked to identify his body at the morgue, but she never returned, leaving Lily alone to fend for herself and take care of Simon.

We know Lily’s parents (and then her and Simon once they were gone) had been in debt and desperate for money by the papers in her trailer that say “Final Notice", "Final Demand", "Account Closed", and "Override".

Simon’s medical bills were a major source of their financial issues, as well as any lawsuits from the scandal at the horse track, combined with Lily’s father alcoholism. I also wonder, if Lily began taking some sort of drugs after the accident based on the bottles and pills we see lying all over the floor by the end of the trailer, if the drugs Lily was taken contributed further to their worsening monetary problems. Maybe these were drugs for Lily’s psychosis. Or maybe they were for Simon. We can’t be certain.

Lily contacts her grandfather and uncle in the hopes of receiving financial support from them to sustain her until adulthood and cover Simon’s medical bills. Her uncle, likely the 1st son, ignores Lily, but her grandfather responds, though he only gives her enough money to “barely suffice for 2 years, along with a peculiar promissory note” (aka, an IOU). The creditor on the note had been changed from the grandfather to Lily herself, with the debtor stated to reside in Oletus Manor.

This seems confirmed to be a set up to force Lily to go to the manor and attend the games there based on how the backstory summary from Lily’s gameplay trailer states “Until [she] heard Grandfather’s cold voice, ‘Go to that manor, get back the thing which belongs to me, and I’ll help you redeem the thing which belongs to you’”.

Based on what we’ve managed to learn about the Barriere family, it seems very likely that Lily’s grandfather is the “Count Barriere” from the Golden Cave and Moonlit River Park backstories.

Count Barriere is the owner of the mountain where Golden Cave, as well as Oletus Manor, are located. He likely also owns the land Lakeside Village is on. And as I’ve said, we know he build Moon River Park. By being the owner of the land Oletus Manor is on, that means the “debtor” that owes Count Barriere, and then Lily, money is Orpheus, who we know bought the manor at some point after Manus sells it.

Lily’s essence backstory also contributes to this idea, as it mentions the “phosphorescent ore” in the mine (Golden Cave) brought “wealth to their ancestors”. As we know their family is “ancient” (aka old and has a lot of wealth), it would make sense based on the essence backstory that much of it may have been due to Golden Cave.

“Barriere” is also referenced in Freddy’s 4th letter as part of the “Keogh & Barriere” law office. This is the 1 time it doesn’t say “Count” Barriere. As the 1st son, the uncle should own something and be considerably wealthier than Lily’s father by the way it’s phrased in Lily’s backstory, so I think there’s a chance the uncle runs this law office alongside Keigan. And as a lawyer, especially one from a wealthy, potentially well-known family, that would likely help him to better achieve financial success. If this is true, in Keigan's backstory, it mentions she "followed her brother into the city and helped out with administrative matters in his law office". Freddy in his letter just says "Keogh & Barriere". That could mean initially that law office was initially Keigan's brother and Lily's uncle, but Keigan replaced her brother to work with Lily's uncle after she took over for her brother.

Going back to Lily, as she’s the now the person Orpheus owes money to, and with her connection to what is likely Kreiburg Racecourse, there’s a good chance we may see her appear in the final game alongside Frederick and the others.

Speaking of which, Lily is described as having an “arrogant” personality. That means she could potentially be the female that Norton was ordered (by someone) to kill, as he described the individual as “arrogant” in his 2nd letter.

Going back to the backstory summary from Lily’s gameplay trailer, the Grandfather is asking Lily to “get back the thing which belongs to me, and I’ll help you redeem the thing which belongs to you”.

We know Lily cares about Simon and that she asked her Grandfather (and uncle) for money to sustain her and fund Simon’s medical bills. So, my thought is the thing he’ll help her “redeem” may be the promissory note aka Lending Certificate for Orpheus’ debt (as it now “belongs” to her after the Grandfather transferred it to her) and with the money from that she’d have enough to likely to fund everything she needs.

That just leaves the question of “the thing which belongs to me” (the Grandfather).

Mostly we know Count Barriere owns land, including the land Oletus Manor is on (and thus maybe the manor itself). As he is originally who Orpheus owes, it could be he’s asking Lily to get the manor back for him, though it doesn’t feel quite as the previous line is “go to that manor”, as it makes it sound like 2 different things. It’s still possible though, especially based on the tragic history of the manor, which is stated in Oletus Manor’s original backstory, as well as from what we know happened to both Dennis and his wife, as well as Manus and Mary de Capet, not to mention the disappearances that occur while Orpheus is the owner. With how the Grandfather sets up Lily to go to the manor, it makes me think again about the theory that Count Barriere may have a hand in causing many of those tragedies to the other owners of Oletus Manor. Though we don’t know why (beyond greed, especially with Golden Cave involved in Lily’s essence, or maybe jealousy/something personal since the paper implies Count Barriere and Dennis DeRoss did know each other to some degree) he’d be doing this just yet, but it still feels like its at least somewhat possible. It would fit with what little we do know about Count Barriere, who we know has death seemingly following him everywhere (built Moonlit River Park but then later Hullabaloo tragedy, owns both Golden Cave and Oletus Manor, both which had tragedies).

Then there is the pocket watch shown during the Ashes of Memory part 1 trailer with Count Barriere’s name underneath (with likely Denis DeRoss’ name above his). Though I’m doubtful of this option too. According to the image shown, it implies 3 of those watches were made, 1 of which we know Alice owns, as we see her use it during Ashes of Memory part 1, with 2 others somewhere else. As there’s more than 1 of these watches, as well as the lack of any indication of these watches being significant beyond the ability to tell the time, I don’t see why he’d want that watch bad enough to send Lily.

My last thought relates to Golden Cave, which we know is important, especially as the setting for Lily’s essence backstory is Golden Cave. We know from Golden Cave’s rumor that “despite that not a single piece of gold was ever found, Count Barriere still got what he wanted with this land”. The mine was abandoned after its collapse based on Alice’s corkboard from Ashes of Memory part 1.

From the collapse we know, besides death, only Norton and his meteorite chunk came out of it. So, if Barriere never got any gold by the time of the collapse, the only things to come out of the mine that Barriere could “want” are Norton or his meteorite chunk.

Could be he wants Norton, but at least regarding the meteorite, there’s a chance the “phosphorescent ore” from Lily’s essence is meant to parallel it. The ore in the essence backstory is what was said to have “brought wealth to their ancestors” (aka, likely Lily’s Grandfather and the Barriere family in general), as well as “eroded” their skin and mind, making them “yearn for confinement” (aka, seems like they have a desire for it). If the ore does parallel the meteorite, this could relate to what Barriere “wanted” according to Golden Cave’s rumor and the backstory summary in Lily’s gameplay trailer.

Going back to the headline on Alice’s corkboard, it does mention “rumors of precious metal ores”. It says these are “false rumors”, but what if isn’t as false as some (such as Barriere) would want people to think? He may just want to keep people away from it so he can have it all for himself. Though I do think people would have to put themselves at risk to get into the mine at all considering we know its unstable, but I do think there’s a chance those rumors aren’t completely false.

From these ideas, the options so far are that Lily is after Alice due to her watch, Orpheus due to his debt and being the current owner of Oletus Manor, or Norton due to his ties to Golden Cave and/or his meteorite chunk. If Barriere is sending Lily after one of them, that could mean the one that ordered Norton to kill could be Orpheus. Even if Count Barriere did just want Norton’s meteorite chunks, Orpheus still might want Lily gone due to her coming after him and his debt, and he likely doesn’t want anything to get in the way of his experiments or keeping him from the manor. And Lily is specifically described as arrogant, so it seems to fit the female Norton is ordered to kill may be Lily, and that Orpheus may be the one who made that order. Though we still need a lot more information to really figure out Count Barriere.

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sirenjose · 8 months

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Theory: Lily's Maid = Martha = Alice's Colleague?

(Crack theory, not really serious. Just a silly thought)

What if the lady helping Lily (maid?) against Lily’s alcoholic father is Martha (Coordinator)?

Or even, what if: Lily’s maid = Alice’s Colleague = Martha?

Originally, I wrote this theory out as what if Lily’s mom could be Martha, but I had a few other ideas part way through that made me switch to wondering about the other lady we see in Lily’s trailer.

Martha’s mother wanted her to be the “perfect wife”, a “house angel”, lady-like

Everyone in Lily’s household looks well off and nice enough clothing. Considering how well off this family is, and the tasks she had, it’d fit with Martha having “beautiful script” in the past based on her 2nd letter.

And if she is a “maid”, she is helping take care of their house (manor) and having to act lady-like (and respectful and such).

Martha says in her 3rd deduction that she had to “organize, appoint, teach the maids and arrange all financial expenses wisely” + Margaretha Hari’s profession was stated to be a “teacher”.

Lily’s family did have maids (that could be “organize[d], appoint[ed], and [taught]”.

We know Lily’s father was “unappreciated and unloved”, but he did have enough wealth to give Lily a “carefree childhood”, just not as much wealth and some others, so having to be “wise” with it to an extent makes sense (Lily was said to have been “pampered” by her family, so he was just more free with it for her, before the accident).

He’d have to use some of his wealth to start his “Barriere Family Sports Show”. And we know he had financial issues after Simon’s accident.

Martha had good horsemanship skills + joined the cavalry

Lily’s father started his “Barriere Family Sports Show” at the Kreiburg Racecourse, with Simon being a jockey. Not to mention Lily’s parents and Simon were said to be passionate about sports, most notably horse racing.

Theory: Maybe Martha wished she could’ve been a jockey too but wasn’t allowed to due to the expectations placed on her.

Henry was Martha’s fiancé, but her primary interest in him was because he was a pilot

Based on Martha’s appearance and stated age (whether or not its completely true is unknown), as well as Henry only being Martha’s “fiancé”, it doesn’t fit as well if Martha was Lily’s mom and married with 2 kids. But a maid, in comparison, could fit.

Theory: Maybe to parallel Martha’s 7th deduction (Martha liked Henry mainly because he was a pilot), Martha was in love with Simon (or at least pretended to be) due to him being a jockey (and this was her way of getting closer to what she actually wanted to be). Maybe he at least talked to her about it (being a jockey).

Theory: if Martha did care about Simon at all (or at least as part of her act), maybe that’s why she’d stay and help Lily when her father becomes violent and alcoholic? As we know Lily frequently visits Simon to cheer him up.

Martha still unable to become an actual pilot

Theory: Martha still not an actual jockey

Theory: What if Martha did somehow get a job helping at the racecourse? At least the day the Barriere Family Sports Show opened? It just wasn’t as a jockey. If Lily’s father organized it, it’s possible Martha could ask him to have some part in it, just not the job she wants.

Theory: Martha’s 10th deduction mentions a “worker with their head in the clouds”. Maybe if she did get a job, but not the one she wanted, she did have her “head in the clouds” that day. And maybe somehow because of that, either the accident was able to happen, or she was unable to help Simon?

Henry gets into an accident

Simon’s accident during the sports show

Theory: Henry is never explicitly stated to have died due to his accident. Simon didn’t die due to his either, he was just very seriously injured.

Martha wants to end a particular “business” and guarantee her own safety. She is also aware of the DeRoss family tragedy at Oletus Manor and mentions not wanting to “trouble that gentleman”

Theory: Maybe the business she wants to “end”/leave is her working for the Barriere family, especially after Lily’s father becomes an alcoholic and dies, with Lily and Simon dealing with financial issues. Maybe that “gentleman” is either Lily’s father or Lily’s grandfather aka Count Barriere. Count Barriere and Dennis DeRoss apparently knew each other to some degree, so that could be how Martha might be aware of the DeRoss tragedy.

She’d also know Baron DeRoss due to Lily’s Lending Certificate, as Lily is now who Baron DeRoss owes money to (due to debt from purchasing Oletus Manor most likely).

Maybe for some reason Martha needs to get away from Count Barriere (maybe she found something out or did something?). Considering how powerful Count Barriere is implied to be, that could explain why she needs a whole new identity and her safety guaranteed.

Maybe she’s talking to Baron DeRoss pretending to want to get away when actually she wants to help Lily ensure she gets Baron DeRoss to pay his debt?

Misc

Martha’s 4th Letter?

In this letter, Martha appears to be a “Captain” (if Michiko’s 4th letter, she’s referenced as an “Officer”), on a mission, and potentially tied to intelligence gathering (and spying, based on the morse code, fake names, various train tickets, the bit with the tobacco being poured out purposefully to replace with a chemical smell). As a “maid” (compared to having to marry to Lily’s father, which would require much more time and much less freedom), she easily could’ve gotten the job with a fake name and everything, potentially for the purpose of her intelligence gathering or whatever her mission is, which maybe could be why she needed to get close to people like Lily and her family (including Simon and/or Lily’s father).

“Or is she just like that alcoholic of a woman?”

Lily’s father was an alcoholic. Maybe he drank dovlin, so maybe Martha could’ve met or at least learned about Demi that way (and maybe this could be why she refers to Demi that way? After her experience with Lily’s father?)

Server (Maid Martha) vs Maid Martha…?

End Note: It could be that Alice’s colleague is someone else, that the maid in Lily’s trailer is no one important, or even that Lily’s mom could be the colleague and just that the colleague isn’t also Martha. I’m also aware that Martha’s deduction could all be entirely fake/lies. As I said, this is just a silly thought that I’m unsure could be true at all but felt like sharing anyways just for fun.

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