#if Jamie having an off day means you lose 0-5 maybe he's not Just One Of Eleven | Explore Tumblr Posts and Blogs

palmettocapital · 4 years

Text

Hedge Fund Market Wizards (Jack Schwager, 2012)

Takeaways:

This is an extremely long set of notes because it’s a long and dense book and every trader has something valuable. Very long book but also quite skimmable if you skip the interviews (which are full of interesting stories) and only read Schwager’s conclusions to each chapter as well as the “40 lessons” at the end (there is also an excellent Intro to Options at the end that is the best I’ve ever read in only 4 pages). *Best interviews are: Colm O’Shea, Jamie Mai, Ed Thorp, Tom Claugus & Michael Platt.

Much of the advice in this book can sound pedantic, but more often it’s deceptive in its simplicity. Worth considering these traders are not just high-return but extremely high R/R over long track records.

To me, the message boils down: figure out exactly what works best for you and do only that as much as you can, structure bets with asymmetric payoff schemes (relative to probabilistically-considered outcomes) and do it in a size/manner that keeps you from making emotional mistakes.

Really crucial is the ability to adapt over a long career, because no system works forever--market structure changes.

My sense is trade structuring and risk management is something the average equities investor doesn’t not pay enough attention to. Structuring can make mediocre or ok R/R into great R/R -- this is basically the key insight of Beat The Dealer and also highly achievable through options.

I like Schwager’s Gain to Pain Ratio, which is defined as the sum of all monthly (arithmetic, not compounded) for a strategy divided by the absolute value of the sum of all losing months. He considers >1.0 very good and >1.5 excellent. 1.0 implies an investor experiences on average an equal amount of monthly losses to the net amount gained over a year. Preferable to Sharpe Ratio because it doesn’t penalize upside vol.

Loved Steve Clark’s advice about not staring at the screens if you’re the sort of investor who sets your bets and has to wait for them to work -- I’ve witnessed first-hand what he means by over-processing and over-trading that results.

Greenblatt’s Magic Formula does not seem to fit a world where the best companies invest via the income statement and employ primarily intangible assets.

Macro

*Colm O’Shea

Wrong at least 50% of the time but never lets a mistake get anywhere near where it would make a good story

Views his trading ideas as hypotheses

The mathematization of economics has greatly narrowed scope of field -- true economists reside in history, poli sci and sociology fields

Policymakers don’t understand they’re not in control. Speculators aren’t either -- fundamentals actually matter

All markets look liquid during a bubble, but it’s liquidity after that matters

Buyer of options in 2006-2007 because low ERP meant option prices were too cheap. Prefers being long options, never short a horrible tail

During 2005-2006, got paid repeatedly to bet that maybe Fed wouldn’t stop hiking. People were fighting the Fed

Avoid conceptualizing the market in antropomorphic terms -- markets don’t think, like mobs don’t.

Prefers macro because HFs tiny there, playing against real money and not against true competitors in a zero-sum way

Prior to 1998 financial crisis, he’d never heard of LTCM - just saw T-bond futures limit up every day, meant something was up and to trade accordingly. Often if you wait to find out the reason first, it’s too late. Soros: Invest first, investigate later. Empiricist at heart.

“Fundamentals are not about forecasting the weather for tomorrow, but rather noticing that it is raining today”. Soros GBP short in 1992 was based on something that had already happens (deep recession in UK = unable to maintain high interest rates necessary for ERM)

LT inflation-adjusted housing prices were sideways from the 19th century until mid-2000s (excluding post-Depression bust), and then 2x’d in a few years

Roulette = world of risk, economy = world of uncertainty

Equity vol tends to be expensive because no natural sellers and everyone is a natural buyer

Markets often confuse liquidity and solvency. You can’t fix a solvency problem by adding liquidity.

Ex: on a $100k house with $200k mortgage, lending you another $100k doesn’t solve the problem.

Seeks asymmetric trades -- like betting against TED spread narrowing after Bear Stearns bailout in 2Q08. When sentiment improved, didn’t lose much because he’d bet at levels already reflecting optimism

Lehman going under was not a surprise - it was expected, but people failed to understand what it meant

Stayed short in GFC until April 2009, until they started losing money. Economy stopped getting worse -- what matters for markets is better/worse > good/bad. Sought out another hypothesis-- Asia-led recovery

Marco is 10% storytelling, 90% flexibility and implementation

Soros plays up to his image as a guru, but as a trader he has no regret and no emotional attachment to an idea.

You have to embrace uncertainty and risk

Biggest mistakes are missed opportunities - often believing something acts as a constraint on making profitable trades

Bubbles last a long time and there’s money to be made. Worst thing to do in a bubble is be stubborn and then late to convert

“If it trades like a bull market, it’s a bull market.”

“Beliefs that are completely invulnerable to evidence and passionately defended are quite durable”. Ex: gold is special

Natural way to trade a bubble is from the long side. Uses options to structure to avoid taking on gap risk on collapse -- low vol bubbles are great for this because premiums stay low

Rare to find comfortable shorts in bear markets. You won’t find a lot of people who have made majority of their money shorting bubbles

Looks for deviations between fundamental probability distribution he perceives and the one priced in by markets

Successful traders adapt and break their own rules. Frameworks > rules

VAR is maligned but does what it claims -- tells you how volatile your current portfolio was in the past.

Most common error he sees is people setting stops at pain thresholds and not at prices that tell you you’re wrong. People who aren’t convinced they’re wrong by being stopped out will keep putting the trade back on. Sets stops at a level where it would be proof he’s wrong and sizes trades according to what that implies potential loss is. If he gets stopped out, it’s because prices are inconsistent with his hypothesis

Recognizing > forecasting

Ray Dalio

Quadrant conceptualization -- two factors and two states = four conditions. All Weather looks at growth and inflation, increasing or decreasing. Divides world into creditors and debtors x independent monetary policy / don’t control monpol (US/UK = debtors with control; Greece/Portugal = debtors w/o control; Brazil = creditor with control; China = creditor w/o control because of USD peg)

Loves mistakes because they provide learning experiences that catalyze improvement

You will certainly make mistakes and have weaknesses. What matters is how you deal with them

Two core concepts in Principles: 1) improvement through mistakes, 2) radical transparency

8/15/71, when Nixon took US off gold standard, sticks in his mind because stock market went up a lot. Learned currency depreciation/money printing is good for stocks, and don’t trust policymakers. Also, markets anticipate bearish events (rumor --> news phenom) and also bearish events can trigger new events with bullish consequences

Don’t fight the Fed (unless you have very good reason to believe their moves won’t work)

Holy Grail of investing: x-axis = number of investments, y-axis = stdev. Curve slopes down and to the right, ie volatility of portfolio goes down as number of assets goes up. Can only cut correlation by 15% with stocks because avg stock has 0.60 correlation to any other, but if you diversify across 15 assets with average of 0 correlation, you can cut vol by 80%. Structuring trades is key to producing uncorrelated bets. Correlation is an outcome, not an input. Doesn’t look at the correlation when setting up bets, looks at whether drivers are different.

People experience drawdowns bigger than they expect because of lack of understanding of how their strategy performs in diff environments. BW tests criteria to ascertain they are 1) timeless (hold across all diff time periods) and 2) universal (across all diff countries)

Hold ~20 signif positions consisting of 80% of the risk, uncorrelated to each other.

Universal truth that you can enhance R/R by reducing correlation

Transaction costs are a function of the amount you have to move in a given timeframe

Did well in 2008 because critera for trading a deleveraging had been established by study other deleveragings (inflationary = 1920s Germany, 1980s LatAm; deflationary = Great Depression, 1990s Japan)

Avoiding unmanaged contraction is essential in preserving social/political order. Spread problems out to keep g>r with fiscal/monetary policy.

He believes US has gone through 4th of 5 cycles a country goes through; went from “country that thinks it is rich but isn’t” to “decline”. Entire cycle is 100-150 years, decline = ~20.

Biggest mistake people make in investing is believing what’s happened in recent past is likely to persist.

In a deleveraging, monpol is ineffective in creating credit. Diff from a recession where rates can be cut to ease debt service, stimulate economic activity and produce positive wealth effect.

In the business cycle, availability & cost of credit driven by central bankers; in the long-wave cycle, depend on factors beyond bankers’ control

Bubbles occur frequently in countries in Stage 4 (getting poorer but still think they’re rich) because economic actors (investors, policymakers, operators) bet big on trends continuing as they have in recent past. Believe investments that have gone up are good rather than expensive, borrow money to buy them.

Larry Benedict

Risk mgmt dominates his approach. If monthly losses approach 2.5%, liquidates entire portfolio and starts over, trading at reduced size. ~2% loss, cuts unit size to 50% or less than usual. Plays at small size until profitable again.

Key experience for him was being on floor on day of 1987 crash. Learned early that ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN.

Learned from Marty Schwartz: Don’t average losing trades. Be smaller than you need to be. Take profits.

You can’t be emotional. (Ex: lost a bunch of money going long right after 9/11)

Leave opinions at the door

85% of the time, they mark up market on day of opex. Going on for 25 years.

Trader’s fail because of gambler mentality, ie when they’re losing look for one trade to make it all back.

You are not a trader, you are a risk manager. Never stay in a losing trade because you think it will come back. Minimize the loss. Accept it and walk away. Worst thing a trader can do is freeze. Need to know how you will respond in any situation.

Scott Ramsey

Process: received a printer chart book every week, updated it every day for over 10 years. Made him pay attention to every market, every day.

Buy the rumor, sell the facts puts you on the other side of retail trading

Tries to imagine where the guy on the opposite side of the trade feels and where he’ll capitulate.

Learn a lot when markets have crisis events. Measuring which markets are the strongest during a crisis can tell you which are likley to lead when pressure is off. Always wants to buy stronger and sell weakest.

Only risks 10 bps of AUM on a typical trade but often out before even that is breached--Very quick to cut trades based on how quickly they go in his favor.

Might lose 10x on an idea but on the 11th it works and more than makes up for the losses. (Opposite of O’Shea, similar to Benedict)

Uses RSI a lot -- looks for divergences between RSI & price

One principile you can’t violate: Know what you can lose.

Trading on exchanges or the interbank market give you so many advantages (ie liquidity not at the whim of a dealer) that giving up those benefits not worth it. His style requires liquidity (being able to stop out at 10 bps)

You should always be swinging the bat - reduces position size in a drawdown

Keep a journal of your trades - if you make a mistake, write it down

Ex of shorting the weakest: when QE2 was implemented, Turkish lira couldn’t rally against USD -- meant it must be pretty bearish and would continue to weaken when QE2 ended. Waited for breakdown out of 2-year range to confirm.

Buying a laggard as a proxy for a leader is a bad idea.

Risk-on/risk-off framework broke down in mid-Sept 2011, when commodities diverged negatively from stocks

Jaffray Woodriff

As a CTA, started out using market-specific models but realized they broke down more because over-fitted to past data. Realized more data used to train models = better performance, switched to using same models across multiple markets.

Avoids trend-following or mean-reversion, the two main strategies for CTAs. Instead looks at things like volatility measure which are derived from price without any direct relationship to price direction.

He does not start by formulating a hypothesis and then test that to see if data supports-- blinding searches through data for emergent patterns

Trains models on fictitious (random) data with a certain distribution which provides a baseline -- then come up with models that do much better. Performance difference between real-data model and baseline indicative of performance, not the full performance of the model in training.

Out of sample results >50% of in-sample results indicative of a good model

Stationarity of patterns they’ve discovered surprises him. Takes a ton of deterioration for them to drop a model, because 1 year’s performance is simply not predictive of the next’s. Test it over 30+ years, so 3% provided by most recent year rarely meaningful

Capacity of a model is not statis, move around with changes in volume and vol

Core of their risk mgmt is evaluating risk of each market based on exponentially weighted moving avg of daily dollar range per contract. Target 12% annualized vol.

Key trading rule: Adjust position sizes to overall risk to target a particular vol

Multi-strat

*Ed Thorp

His key insight in blackjack was that while average edge was against the player, player could overcome this by varying bet size (ie betting big when edge is positive and small or not at all when it’s negative)

Picture blackjack probability problem as a 10-dimensional space where every card is 1/13 (except 10-values which pool to 4/13) and every possible deck is some point in that 10-dimensional space whose coordinates are determined by the fraction of each card value remaining in the deck)

With 4 aces out, edge goes to -2.5%. Implies with 4 extra aces, edge of +2.5%. Can’t have 4 extra aces, but can have half a deck with none of the aces out yet, where odds are the same as a full deck with 8 aces.

5s strategy provided higher probability bet, but went with 10s because it provided more opportunities (goes 5s, Aces, 10s, 6s in terms of influence)

“I just don’t scare. I am aware, and I avoid taking foolish risks”

Provable that complete-point-count system (high cards -1, low cards +1) is approximately the best possible system for equivalent simplicity

Don’t be more than you’re comfortable with. Take your time until you’re ready.

Historically, ideas don’t just appear in one place -- appear in several places at nearly the same time (Newton & Leibniz, Darwin & Wallace). This is due to technology

Beat The Market insight was that warrants with <2 years to maturity traded at premiums that were too high, so shorted warrant and bought stock. Initially on static hedge, later with dynamic delta hedging.

His option pricing model came out of deciding he could derive a formula if he assumes all investments grew at RFR.

Kelly Criterion for bet sizing: F= P(w) - [P(L)/W) where F=fraction of capital, W=dollars won per dollar wagered, P(W)=win prob, P(L)=lose prob. Aligns your bet with your edge (win rate - loss rate). KC also implicitly assumes there’s no minimum bet size which is simplifying. F (fraction of capital) is actually fraction of riskable/losable capital (ie less than 100% of capital if you can’t tolerate 100% drawdown) -- if you have $1m purse but can only tolerate $200k loss, KC perspective is your F is based off $200k. If you hedge and neutralize risk, KC may imply using leverage.

Half Kelly is psychologically better because you get 3/4 the return with 1/2 the vol (ie better Sharpe). Also prevents you from overbetting due to miscalculating -- negative impacts of overestimating trade size is 2x as large as negative impacts of underestimating correct trade size by same amount, so err smaller, esp if precise win/lose prob is not known (usually the case in trading).

60-day lookback is usually the best for measuring correlation between assets.

Degree of confidence is key in determining size of trade and also in deciding on how to risk manage (ie take your lumps or employ safety mechanism to limit drawdown)

*Jamie Mai

All trades are structured and implemented to be highly asymmetric and positive-skew

They love bull-bear battlegrounds -- while markets are good at estimating magnitude of contingent liability, they’re poor at evaluating outcomes probabilistically (eg, litigations, regulatory actions, anything else that creates perception of going concern risk)

Whenever a market is pointing at something and saying this is a risk to be concerned about, most of the time the risk ends up being not as bad as anticipated

Looks for cases with binary outcomes where the options market assigns normal probability distribution

Often, the longer the option’s duration, the lower the IV, which makes no sense. Ex: bought far OTM DJIA call as an inflation hedge with very low IV. Taking exposure on the RFR implicit in option pricing models

Another ex: selling vol on Brazilian interest rates where 6-month forward rate was >400 bps from current, implying rates staying similar to current over 6 months was a >4 stdev event. Structured trade around +200 bps strike which was cheap because it was far OTM based on forward rate.

Creative structuring: bespoke “worst of” option for shorting EUR while IV on Euro puts was high. Shorted “worst of” EUR/AUD and EUR/CHF which was cheaper but they expectd both to weaken. If one had expired OTM, option buyer would lose entire premium. Expected correlation between the two crosses is a key input. Their insight was that in a Euro crash, neg correlation between EUR/AUD and EUR/CHF would decouple and both would go down. Allowed them to get short at 1/10 the premium as % of notional as the straigh Euro puts.

Grantham places relative valuations in context of cycle--low-quality outperforms early, and high-quality toward the end.

Strategy called “cheap sigma” -- options prices dramatically understate potential price move of markets that trend. Options prices tend to be underpriced in smoothly trending markets. (Sounds similar to Woodriff who doesn’t bet on trends or on mean-reversion but on vol of prices around trends)

Options math works better over short intervals - options pricing assumes vol increases with the square root of time. Reasonable <1 year, but doesn’t scale properly beyond that. Ex: if 1-year stdev is 5%, 9-year stdev will be priced at 15% (sqrt(9)*5%) which is prob too low. This is because the longer the time, more potential for a trend and for price move to exceed stdev-implied probability.

Their trades combine: a mispricing that arises because standard market pricing assumptions are inappropriate for a given situation + asymmetric R/R profile.

Don’t have high level of conviction in an outcome, instead high conviction in that the odds were mispriced.

High conviction on an event path prices like a low-prob event is their Holy Grail. Subprime CDS was that. Got to the trend late which is typical for them because they like situations where there’s a compelling reason a trade should be working but the only counter-argument is that while it should work, it hasn’t yet.

Their view was that the GFC started on Feb 1, 2007 when ABX started tanking, more than a year before Bear failed. (This is also what Colm O’Shea observed before MMF liquidity dried up in Aug 2007 which showed banks weren’t comfortable lending to other banks)

Their model is to find experts in the domain to follow. “River guides”

Never go outright short a stock due to upside-down R/R. Buy OTM puts, but when rising IVs make that too expensive, shift to ITM to reduce time-value decay.

Require that the expected value of a trade (W * P(W)) >2x expected loss (L * P(L))

They use cash to target portfolio risk (50-80% typical), since the premia they pay put on a lot of risk relative to cash deployed.

Options prices being based on normal distribution implies what’s likeliest is prices near current -- this isn’t always true! If the odds of a large move in either direction are >stdev, OTM options are too cheap.

Optiond models ignore potential to trend and use only vol and time. Implicit assumption is that direction of daily price moves is random, which is not true.

*Michael Platt

Starts from the perspective of “what do I know for sure” -- one of the only things he could say with certainty is that markets trend. Observable in any market, in any era (ie timeless & universal, as Dalio would say)

Markets trend because rather than discounting all information and holding static until new information arises, people remember the past in bullet points and then use thoughts & feelings from the current moment to fill it in.

May initially trend for fundamental reasons, but prices overshoot ludicrously

Another thing you know is diversification works

Best systems degrade -- ways of making money in the market don’t last forever

Describes seeing LIBOR jump 10 bps in Aug 2007 and thought, “this just feels bad and scary” -- was a major signal to him because it happened “for no reason at all”

He moved firm’s money in 2008 to 2-year Tsys to reduce exposure even to MMFs.

Trades that accounted for gains in 2009 were fading very big call/put skews, selling OTM options and buying ATM.

His firm (BlueCrest) is structured so every trader starts the year with a risk allocation, if they lose 3% their risk gets cut by 50%, and if they lose 3% of the remainder, they’re liquidated. Want people to scale down if they’re getting it wrong and scale up if getting it right. Rebases annually unless a trader carries over PnL (ie doesn’t get paid on a portion of what they made in a calendar year in order to start the next with more leeway). Effectively structures traders like they are options.

Risk management is the most important thing. Key thing his risk mgmt team monitors for is breakdowns in correlation. Most of their positions are spreads, so lower correlations are riskier. If two assets have a correlation of 0.95, can put on a large spread position with relatively small risk. If that correlation is 0.50, can be wiped out very quickly.

Risk managers scan portfolios for vulnerabilities and ask traders, “if you were going to lose $10m, where would it come from?” Traders will typically known

Bias is neutral-to-long vol, great protection against all scenarios. Hates shorting OTM strikes.

For traders, he wants “people who know that anything can happen” -- as opposed to analysts, people are more prescriptive. Wants someone who understands an edge.

Market maker traders know the market is always right and you are wrong if you’re losing money for any reason at all. Know value is irrelevant in times of market stress, and in those times it’s all about positioning -- markets will trade against positions.

Key problem with analyst/economist types is ego - can never admit when they’re wrong

No tolerance for losses - kills you by impeding you psychologically, making you miss opportunity. 80% of profits from 20% of ideas, so tightening up at the wrong time can have big opportunity cost.

Looks at every trade in his book every day and asks if he’d enter it today at that price. Usually stops himself out of positions due to time, not price. If the trade isn’t working, alarm bells start ringing

Need 3 things to make money: 1) decent fundamental story, 2) good trend and 3) the market handling news the way you think it should. Bull markets ignore bad news, and any good news is reason for a rally.

Ex: 2s10s steepener trade in 2009 where he kept seeing news that he thought meant he was going to get screwed, but position didn’t move against him. Realized curve could not get flatter no matter how bad the news, 4x’d his position and made a great trade.

Likes to know consensus view because you make the most when consensus shifts. Rather than ask people their position, asks people their position -- they are more willing to talk because they feel important.

“When I am wrong, the only instinct I have is to get out” -- want to be the first one to sell. In investment mgmt, you have an option to keep 20% of PnL, but want to own the serial option of being able to do that every year. Can’t blow up.

Equities

Steve Clark

Price is where anyone is prepared to deal, and it can be anything. Need to internalize that

Being inexperienced can be good because fear often cripples people who have been in the business too long. Too many fat tails damages people. You can’t afford blowups emotionally.

Used volume as a screen for what stocks to be looking at because clearly something is going on.

Can’t predict the future from past data - can talk about percentage probabilities of what might happen next, but can’t go any further

When you are trading over short to medium term, your views on the fundamentals are irrelevant - have to gauge what the market thinks of the story.

“Do more of what works and less of what doesn’t” -- dissect your PnL and see what works for you and what doesn’t

Favorite trades in risk arb were parents buying out subs because no due diligence issues and you knew deal would close.

He is very confident in his abilities -- holds the view that he can do anything he wants to.

There is no career in trading, you’re only as good as your last trade.

Enjoyed being a trader more than running a business, because you can’t walk away -- it’s a prison, while being a trader is very free.

You have to train yourself to trade within your emotional capacity

When a merger deal breaks, they cut right away because there is a pocket of liquidity, even if price lower. Price is irrelevant, it’s size that can kill you -- too big in an illiquid stock and there’s no way out

Being busy as a prop trader is important to get you away from the screen. If you have positions on and are waiting for the market to do what it needs to do, need to find something else to do in the interim. Staring at the screen won’t tell you much, you’ll start to overprocess and overtrade. You’ll be less patient and start feeling pain with every tick against you.

Need to be willing to call people to hound them for information, and “ask the next question” -- can infer a lot that way

Nearly all successful traders he’s known have been one-trick ponies -- do one thing very well, and if they stray it’s a disaster.

In 2007-2008, got out of everything directional or long-dated and put all risk into short duration risk arb (wide spreads due to liquidity crunch and high likelihood to close). Only risk he could see to that strategy was brokers changing margin requirements, which would only happen with major market distress, so he bought OTM puts / sold OTM calls on SPX to hedge.

When vol quadrupled in 2008, he decided the world had changed and they need to trade a fraction of before. Most people didn’t do that and got blown up. Doesn’t believe in cutting exposure gradually, cut drastically. Gut feel is important.

Trading rules he lives by: “If you wake up thinking about a position, it’s too big”, “never stop asking questions, speak to as many people as you can, research every opposing opinion.” If a position starts acting in a way you don’t understand, you need to cut it because the market is telling you you don’t know what’s going on.

The market is not about facts, it’s about people’s opinions and positions. “Anything can be at any price, any time.”

When trading poorly, he liquidates everything and takes a vacation -- helps you regain objectivity.

Martin Taylor

Describes being super bearish on Russia in 1997 but the reason it didn’t blow up until Aug 1998 is because the money pulled out of Asia due to the crisis there went to Eastern Europe and Latin America and created big bull markets there.

Officially, Russia was running a current account surplus, so it seemed diff from Asia (which was a CA deficit issue when countries couldn’t service debt). True measure of balance of payments is what happens to reserves -- even though Russia supposedly had large CA surplus and capital inflows, reserves were going down, not up. Knew reserves numbers were truthful because central bank couldn’t lie without getting found out quickly (by comparing to other CBs). What was happening was exports were hugely overstated in cash terms. Yeltsin government inept and theft of company asset rampant. Money from exports was being diverted into Swiss accounts and never making its way back to Russia. $100m of goods would be sold, would be booked as $50m, missing $50m would go to a Swiss bank account, and $40m of the $50m booked as revenue would be booked as a receivable and also go into that Swiss bank account. So you’d end up with only $10m cash inflow on $100m of goods leaving the country. Simple capital flight.

Money fleeing Asia flowed into Russian market due to post-Communist “miracle” story. First crack was a rumor in Oct 1997 that Yeltsin was in failing health and market dropped 23% in a session. Rebounded 30% the next day as Yeltsin gov’t denied and people rushed in for the buying opportunity. But a sudden break emotionally reminds people they can lose money, and they started studying the fundamentals more closely, which he already knew were bad. Was then -50% by Feb. He doubled down on bearish positioning, and market ultimately declined another 88% from there. Ultimate catalyst was a $25B bond sale done by GS in summer 1998 that should have doubled foreign reserves but only added $3B -- became obvious money was going elsewhere.

Int’l funds were long GKOs because the rates were ridiculously good, but they were so good because nobody domestic wanted to buy. In an EM, the smart money is domestic, not international.

Buying low beta stocks instead of cash is a mistake - market -40% means your stocks -20%, market +50% your stocks +10% = negative asymmetry. For the same reason, EM bonds are inherently unattractive. Structures his portfolio as high-beta stocks balanced by cash or shorts.

He looks for favorable macro situation, a secular trend and good company management.

Ex: As a result of the collapse in 1998, Russian balance of payments picture changed dramatically --> 80% ruble devaluation led to a surge in foreign reserve, “liquefaction” of economy and end of nonpayments culture, meaning workers started getting paid real money and there was a massive increase in purchasing power for middle class, drove a strong secular trend. He saw mobile phone penetration increasing 25% pa and mobile carriers with good mgmt teams, so he owned the Russian mobile carriers from 1999-2005.

Always tells new investors they will lose money with him at various points in the year and it will be unpleasant. Considers it a crucial “health warning”

Net exposure ranges 20-110%. Holds net long positioning even when bearish because he thinks if you’re trading volatile instruments, can never get totally out because you’ll never get in on a reversal. When the market is so bad that you think it’s obvious you should be net short, that’s usually when it’s all in the price and you should be buying. Maintaining 20% exposure helped them avoid getting whipsawed (3 15-20% rallies in 4Q08 alone, all followed by new lows)

Running OPM, can’t take extreme positions and maintain his mental equilibrium.

Targets upside capture of 70-80% and downside capture of 30-40%

“Tyranny” of HF monthly returns -- comes from FOFs whose clients receive monthly data

Forecast earnings for every company they follow for 3-4 years out, then invest in the ones cheap vs. sector where they have earnings > consensus. Catalyst should be earnings surprise

He was super long AAPL despite the move because it was still cheap on his estimates. Anecdote about RIMM PlayBook which they rushed to market to compete with iPad but without ability to do email on it despite being for corporate market. Predicted RIMM would be bust in 3-4 years.

Bad companies in EM are always at risk of being taken over, because EM is full of sectors where multi-nationals want exposure and their only option is a bad company because regulators won’t let them buy the good one, instead they approve purchase of the bad one because it’s saving jobs.

As such, they focus on shorting bad companies that can’t be taken over because they’re owned by gov’t or their own pension fund -- means it will never be sold because the workers are afraid of layoffs. In EM, that’s ~1/3 of companies owned that way.

His estimates often differ from consensus because he sees a new trend while they are extrapolating history.

If he’s bullish on a stock without a full position and sees a breakout on the chart, will go to full position because market is now seeing same thing he is. Charts are supplemental.

Only time he will initiate a trade based on chart is if a company is extremely oversold, like 3-year low on RSI. Usually means whatever is killing it is in the price. Doesn’t believe RSI works for overbought because stocks can stay overbought for a long time, whereas oversold is usually something pretty acute that resolves in a few weeks.

Gut feel is crucial -- understanding if something isn’t “acting right” is a sign to recheck your work.

Have to be an expert in what you invest in. Need to understand what you invest in. If you don’t understand why you’re in a trade, won’t understand when the right time to sell is.

Post-GFC, volumes took a long time to recover to pre-crisis levels

He had to return outside money in mid-2010 because his confidence was shaken from post-GFC. Only that allowed him to return to his former style.

*Tom Claugus

Obsessed with financial independence from a young age -- attributes to his dad being a product of the Depression, scared to death of being poor and managing to transfer that insecurity to him.

When he went to college, his dad told him he was going to feel like he was going to prison. “You can go out Friday night or Saturday night, but you can’t go out both, or else you won’t get ahead”

Adheres to a discipline of living on 1/3 of his income + 3% of NW (1/3 of ~10% pa target return) and investing the remainder.

Grossing up in a crash -- went into 1987 crash very net short, bought high quality longs that day to raise his net rather than covering shorts, since he was short low quality stocks and saw no need to cover.

Super interesting life story where he was on track to be CEO of Rohm & Haas in Philadelphia but making more money investing than at his job. Hit $1.6m in NW, realized he could live on 3% of that ($48k) and economic necessity to work completely disappeared. Launched a fund, but OPM responsibility weighed on him, closed quickly and almost went back to work.

Can only manage OPM with complete dedication -- “If I am 100% dedicated to managing your money, and I lose you money, I can look you in the eye and say, ‘I did my best,’ and I could be okay with that”

He thinks in terms of reversion-to-mean. Manages exposures relative to a best-fit regressions line for log of prices from 1932-present and calculates a 95% confidence interval (used to be 90% but that failed in 1999) -- output is two lines parallel to best-fit line that encompass 95% of all the months. At lower band, exposure will be 130/-20; at mid 100/-50 (want to be net long at midpoint because of secular uptrend in equities), at high end, 20/-90. Do this for SPX, Nasdaq and Russell 2k and derive a composite target exposure based on those.

Spend 90% of their time figuring out why a sector or stock is expensive or cheap, and what is going to change that.

Looks for anomalies -- screens for quarterly earnings +50%+ or -30%+ and tries to understand why.

Ex: Rock Tenn earnings up huge recently. Paper co, had been cheap for 4-5 years, mediocre business, looking for a reason to buy but never found anything. Ultimately, industry growth reduced capacity because no new supply and industry consolidated. Ultimately there was an inflection point in favor of suppliers.

Considers +/-7% a normal range of monthly outcomes for his fund -- where they’ve been 90% of all months. Being < -7% and not knowing why is a major red flag. Doesn’t do much proactive risk mgmt. Losing money on longs is diff from on shorts for him

“Evel Knievel short screen” -- companies trying to jump the Grand Canyon that prob won’t make it, his job is to figure out why they won’t make it. Two criteria: FCF burn & >5x BV. Normally ~60 companies, in 1999 it was 180 and 2/3 of them had 2x’d in price in the last quarter.

When market sells off really hard, it’s usually a liquidity issue -- no place to hide in a liquidity sell-off, people sell everything because they have to, not because they want to. Reverse rarely happens on the long side.

Shorts are actually easier to find than longs -- easier to spot a broken company than a good company, easier to identify bad mgmt than good mgmt.

Track basic indicators to get a feel for economy. Rail traffic & truck traffic tell you whether there’s expansion or contraction. Load factors on airplanes. RevPAR. Construction & housing starts.

He was bullish airlines -- believed airlines’ lack of profitability went back to regulated days, because pricing umbrella encouraged inefficiency in cost structure. Deregulated made legacy carriers compete with newcomers (Southwest) with lower cost structures. Ultimately, all but AA went bankrupt and rx’d costs. And industry mergers have consolidated down to major 3 players.

Describes his process as trying to find oil companies whose price reflects only current production without accounting for ongoing exploration with potential to increase future production. IE, free optionality. People who use fundamental screens (P/FCF) do not see the future revenue in those statistics. AAPL was recently priced at value of existing products without potential for new ones despite a record of consistent innovation. Can also work for asset values -- Paramount Resources which identifies land with potential for O&G exploration and sells it when the area becomes discovered by E&Ps drilling exploratory wells. Numbers never reflect that value because they are not developing it themselves.

Often finds market won’t pay anything for production potential >1 year away

General principle is future revenue generation that can be “reasonably anticipated” but is not reflected in current market price

Joe Vidich

Described by an acquaintances as "an intellectual who was always a trader” -- combined longer-term investment themes with reading of market sentiment in indiv names

Begins by formulating a big picture of the economy & stock market. Looks for themes that drives him to sectors or subsectors. Does fundamental analysis and observes trading activity to select best stocks in those sectors.

Timing in entering and exiting is heavily influenced by assessment of sentiment, which is mostly price action relative to events.

Feels he has most skill on trading from short side due to years as market maker -- if retail order flow long-biases, market maker by definition trades from short side, and is constantly trading out of a short position for every buy order he fills.

Paints as a way to relax

It is always preferable to do your own works and get your own info because then you will have more confidence. If you listen to someone to get into a trade and it goes against you, have to listen to that person again to get out.

A good growth stock is always overvalued and a lousy company is always undervalued. Until you get a turn where market recognizes improvement in business model, a value stock will always be undervalued.

Had a good year in 2008 by realizing banks were heavily leveraged to MBS even though he didn’t understand the securities. Had seen it all before -- a number of big banks went to zero in S&L crisis with insiders buying on the way down.

In 2009, went looking for best business models and balance sheets ot buy -- stocks with lowest financial risk, no need to refi debt and able to ride out a prolonged, deep recession. Ex: no-debt retailers with lots of cash (Gap at $11 with $5/sh in cash and $1/sh of earnings); Shaw at $18 with $12/sh in cash

In a bull market, prices open lower and then go up rest of the day. In a bear market, open higher and fade rest of day. Toward end of a bull market, prices start opening higher

If there is bearish news before the open and market does not trade down much during first hour, indicates smart money is not selling and it’s a buyable dip.

Market sentiment (stock moves) > public sentiment (what CNBC says). How the market responds to external events is extremely important.

Determines where stops are and places buy orders half-point below where they believe that is.

Every stock has its own risk profile. Some stocks can go -50% without it really meaning anything, whereas with KO you should be reevaluating if it moves 5% against you.

“Don’t ever consider yourself right” Begins by selling 20% of a position if it’s on the way down because that way he can feel like he was right either way.

Often best to liquidate entire positions. Harvesting losses forces you to revisit the trade. If you’re in it, you’re always defending it. Liquidating forces you to reevaluate it relative to other opportunities.

To be successful, must be willing to change your opinion. Most people aren’t. Have to be humble about your ideas.

Most people are more afraid of making money than losing money -- sell a stock that’s +20% but not one -20%, because it would confirm they were wrong.

Big diff between informed sentiment (CEOs) and investor sentiment, which is usually what you want to bet against over the long term.

Considers charts extremely important. One of the best patterns is a sideways stock for a long time that has a sudden sharp upmove on large volume. Wake-up call that you need to take a look.

Critical risk controls are being diversified and cutting exposure when you don’t understand what markets are doing and why you are wrong.

Even if you are wrong to harvest a loss, it cleans the slate which is therapeutic and valuable. Getting out sometimes right before a stock turns is the price you pay to keep your losses under control.

“Don’t try to be 100% right”

“Limit your size in any position so that fear does not become the prevailing instinct guiding your judgement”

Kevin Daly

Regular reading he finds helpful (beyond the obvious): Wall Street Transcript, Dick Davis Investment Digest, Grant’s IRO, VII, Santangel’s Review, Form4Oracle, VIC, SumZero, Vickers Stock Research

Finds reading sellside initiations a valuable first step when researching an idea because of the industry comparisons and background on the company. Found IAA (then IAAI) this way when reading a CPRT report.

Holds a stock “as long as the share price doesn’t get too far ahead of a company’s intrinsic value”

Exposure is usually 30-90% long and 10% short.

Esoteric economic data point he watches is weekly rail car loadings.

Stays as unemotional as possible when things go against him

Jimmy Balodimas

Trades against trend (short ~75% of the time career in aggregate). Always takes money off the table when it’s in his favor - “always always always”

Doesn’t let himself panic, even if he does’t know what’s going on, won’t exit something going against him until he finds out what’s going on and can make a decision, rather than responding out of emotion.

Used to be that intraday trading was more volatile and gave him more opportunities to take chips off when in his favor. Last 5-8 years (prior to 2012) that changed with higher HF participation, they’re now the main players intraday and there are far fewer pullbacks, trends in indiv stocks are smoother. This is why the 2 years from April 2009-March 2011 have devastated shorts much more than any other period (including the Internt bubble), because no opportunities to get out.

Never afraid of missing anything -- market is always providing opportunities. All he thinks about is making money, not being right.

Divides stocks into those he’s looking to buy and short, and then recognizes a pattern in those where there’s a possibility for an accelerated move in a short period of time -- chart, group

People who run most of the money on Wall Street are never going to put their necks out there -- waiting for the trend to be intact and to catch middle part of the move

Joel Greenblatt

Magic Formula: combined rank of earnings yield (EBIT/EV) and ROTC (EBIT / Tangible Capital Employed or NWC+PPE). Basically systematizes Buffett’s cheap+good methodology.

magicformulainvesting.com

First job on Wall Street was trading options at Bear Stearns, doing risk arbs when forward conversions (long stock + synthetic short of short call/long put at same strike/expiry) returns 18-19% annualized.

Did risk arb on the buyside but negative asymmetry of merger arb turned him off. Instead, attracted to periphery with weird deals or interesting paper being issues. Situations the typical analyst was not equipped to evaluate. Reading the 400-page document he knew no one else was reading.

Example of an early trade was MAR spin of HST. Marriott got caught owning owning hotel properties in early-90s hotel downdraft, Spun those out with the debt into Host Marriott and kept the good (franchise) business, Marriott Int’l. Host was “toxic waste” and heavily leveraged, out of favor. Knew institutions would sell because it was only 10-15% the size of original, too small to hold, diffrent business, looked ugly. He found insiders including the Marriott family kept a big stake and the guy who planned the spin-off was going with HST -- told him HST wasn’t structured to fail. Equity was $3-5/sh with $20-25/sh of debt -- so a 15% improvement in EV 2x’s the stock

Early 90′s trade on WFC where it was trading for $80 and CA was going through a RE recession. Binary outcome in a year, stock was either worth $150+ or $0. Used 2-year LEAPS to turn a 1:1 R/R trade into 5:1

Value approach is very hard to follow -- that’s why it works. Need to have a ton of confidence in it or you won’t be able to follow it.

Gotham just built a database of 4000 US + foreign stocks where they have sourced the historical cash flow and balance sheets themselves. No forward estimates.

By definition, a market cap-weighted index owns too much of overpriced stocks and too little of bargain-price stocks. Comping to equal-weighted index can show you whether that’s costing you performance. Historically over last 40 years that’s been 2%pa. EW index does have more txn costs.

Lesser-followed companies more likely to be misvalued, either under or over. Doesn’t believe there’s a directional bias on that on average.

If you can’t value a business, you have no basis on which to invest.

Investors avoid owning the stocks that are painful to own and thereby miss some of the biggest winners. Observed this empirically from self-managed accounts using their Magic Formula website--letting investors make their own decisions about which of the stocks to own destroyed all of the outperformance.

Believes vol is widely used as a risk metric because it’s easy to measure, not because it’s a useful gauge of risk.

Diff between investors who succeed and don’t is how they think about the market. Everyone bombarded with price movements and news, successful ones build a process for cutting through that.

“no called strikes” mentality

Always assumes minimum bogey is 6%, even if interest rates are near 0. Compares normalized earnings (yield) to higher of RFR or 6%.

Presumably normalized earnings means “owner earnings” in the WEB sense.

Time horizons for investment performance have shortened. Institutions increasingly likely to redeem from managers who have a bad year or two. This means most managers can’t wait for two years for an investment to work. That’s why companies that are not expected to do well in the next 1-2 years or are subject to near-term uncertainty are systematically underpriced.

Study of managers from 2000-2009 showed 97% of top-quartile managers spent at least 3 years in bottom half; 79% spend 3+ years in the bottom quartile, and ~50% of them spent 3 years in the bottom decile. Probably just as difficult to pick a good manager as it is to pick a good stock.

He is super involved in education reform, charter schools -- believes capitalism works better when everyone has a fair chance and education gives you the most bang for your buck for achieving that goal.

You are setting yourself up for failure if you invest differently than you want in order to place investors.

Manage your PA if you can -- nothing like doing it and learning what it’s like when you lose money and what your emotions are when doing well and not well.

Studying ROIC is key for keeping you out of value traps (not sure I agree with this)

#Investor Profile

0 notes

thesportssoundoff · 7 years

Text

“Is this really the kind of card you bring to Norfolk, Virginia all due respect to the fine folks who live there?!” UFC Fight Night Poirier vs Pettis preview

Joey

November 6th

We just passed the UFC's biggest weekend of 2017 and normally after a big weekend, a not so good card follows. This time though after a big card, we've got a really good free TV card to follow it up. Live from Norfolk, Virginia, the UFC rolls into town with a pretty damn solid card that has just a little bit of something for everybody. Like really compelling on paper fights? We gotcha! Like WMMA? Gotcha! Like old veterans with something to prove? Gotcha! Like bantamweights? Word! Heavyweights? I mean we got those too! Ya like Sage Northcutt? WHO DOESN'T?! This UFC card is an Oddlot and I can approve of that, topped by a fantastic main event pitting Dustin Poirier vs Anthony Pettis.

Fights: 13

Debuts: 1 (Karl Roberson)

Fight Changes/Injury Cancellations: 1 (Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs Jared Cannonier)

Headliners (fighters who have either main evented or co-main evented shows in the UFC): 11 (Anthony Pettis, Dustin Poirier, Matt Brown, Diego Sanchez, Andrei Arlovski, Nate Marquardt, Raphael Assuncao, Joe Lauzon, Clay Guida, Jon Dodson, Sage Northcutt)

Fighters On Losing Streaks in the UFC: 3 (Andrei Arlovski, Matt Brown, Nate Marquardt)

Fighters On Winning Streaks in the UFC: 2 (Matthew Lopez and Raphael Assuncao)

Stat Monitor for 2017:

Debuting Fighters (Current number: 33-29)- Karl Roberson

Short Notice Fighters (Current number: 20-31-1)- 0

Second Fight (Current number: 23-33)- Michel Quiñones, Tatiana Suarez and Junior Albini

Cage Corrosion (17-11-1)- Tatiana Suarez

Twelve Precarious Ponderings

1- Is it FINALLY going to be time for Dustin Poirier to get that big career defining win? Poirier has been fantastic at 155 lbs, an action fight fan's dream fighter, a finisher and everything else you can put on a guy. He is must see TV and it's no surprise that since dropping to 155 lbs, he has three bonuses (and was likely robbed of two other ones since the Alvarez fight didn't get 50K and his KO of Bobby Green happened on a card where dudes were getting flattened left and right). Lost in the love for the 28 year old Louisiana native is the fact that he hasn't had that ONE signature win. He's beaten a lot of guys who in theory live in that 15 to 10 range of the LW division but the big win has eluded him. At FW, entertaining losses to guys like the Korean Zombie and Cub Swanson plus a KO to Conor McGregor are probably his trademarkk performances. At 155 lbs, he looked on his way to putting himself in the conversation among the likes of RDA, Pettis, Alvarez, Ferguson and the crew before Michael Johnson removed him from the conversation in a stunning upset. He looked on his way to getting that win vs Alvarez before he got hurt and eventually kneed illegally.

The entire career of Poirier feels like a collection of moments where he's good enough TO win but not great enough to rise above. In main events, Poirier is 0-2. In co-main events, he's 0-1. If we judge fighters by their ability to rise up, so to speak, then Poirier's record is not giving you a ringing endorsement for confidence. Even saying that, we're discussing a 28 year old who is ultra skilled in every capacity. Maybe he's a step slower than the heaviest hitters in the division (he looked to be moving at Tivo slow mo speed vs Michael Johnson) and maybe you have questions about his ability to deal with pressure. Maybe you worry about his composure which could explain his so-so record in big fights. Whatever the case, even at 28 years old, we're reaching the "He is what he is" portion of Poirier's career. A fantastic action fighter who SHOULD be among the elites at 155 lbs. This is a big fight for him.

2- Similarly, Anthony Pettis. Lost in the record is the how and why we got here. Pettis simply got out dogged by an injured RDA in a fight where both guys were impaired. After that? I mean I thought he beat Eddie Alvarez pretty clearly. Edson Barboza is a better version of Anthony Pettis which was just all kinds of wrong for him. Ignore everything at 145 lbs because that was a bad idea. The point I'm trying to illustrate here is that Pettis is far better than he's shown since 2015 or so. We're talking about a fantastic athlete still entering his prime who is still capable of big fight magic. His resume is littered with well known names and those aren't fluke wins. Even if I believe that Pettis has become a big stagnant in recent years, on his good night he's probably better than your favorite lightweight. Poirier is going to be a pretty valuable test for him and what remains of Pettis as a top 155er.

3- I know Matt Brown is retiring but I really hope win or lose Diego Sanchez follows him into whatever MMA Valhalla is.

4- Andrei Arlovski vs Junior Albini is so much of what MMA is and so little of what we wish it to be. Arlovski is 0-4 and while he didn't get sparked in his last fight, he showed so little against Marcin Tybura that I don't even really see the point of this fight other than trying to launch Albini's career. That's great and all but Albiini is ONE fight into his UFC career and we have no idea what he's really all about. The only way we learn anything about him is if he loses and that'd speak volumes in the negatives. This is a very odd peculiar fight.

5- Joe Lauzon vs Clay Guida has one of two ways of ending. The first is Lauzon dropping Guida early and snatching his neck or the other is a hot start for Lauzon followed by two rounds of Clay Guida just smacking him around on the ground if Lauzon doesn’t get an early sub. It’s so weird this fight hasn’t happened earlier than this point but even so, I’m pretty geeked about it.

6- Jon Dodson vs Marlon Moraes is one of those fights with no middle ground. It's either all action or it's the world's smallest fastest staring contest.

7- While I don't like the fight, Tatiana Suarez vs Vivianne Pereira seems like a really great fight between two solid strawweight prospects. Pereira is a little undersized but she's hyperactive and looked worlds better vs Jamie Moyle. Tati Suarez has title contender talent and a fantastic base for the division but she's been out for a good long minute. Excited for this one even if I dislike the fact a prospect's gonna get knocked off.

8- Really excited to see Matthew Lopez get his crack at figuring out Raphael Assuncao. If you beat Assuncao, you should be like champion emeritus at 135 lbs. Lopez had a way too tough debut vs Rani Yahya and even in that fight he was more than competitive in scrambles and on the feet. Since then Lopez has picked up two wins over competent 135ers like Johnny Eduardo and Mitch Gagnon. That said, Assuncao is forever at a level above most of these dudes in the weight class.

9- We're starting to get to that point where the DWTCS signees are getting opportunities to have fights. Boston Salmon lost his chance but Karl Roberson gets a shot now. Dropping from 205 to 185 lbs, Roberson draws Darren Stewart who was really impressive in Cage Warriors prior to getting his UFC call up. He got hit with the Francimar Barroso train after a no contest and now he'll also make the drop to MW. Excited about these two guys.

10- Of the twelve fighters currently posted up on this main card, it almost seems reasonable to half of them could be retired or out of the UFC by next year. You have Arlovski, Diego Sanchez, Joe Lauzon, Clay Guida and Nate Marquardt who could all be on their last legs or considering retirement not including Matt Brown who is genuinely retiring.

11- Everybody's favorite human Ken Doll is back in business, baby! Sage Northcutt has returned!

12- It has the potential to be a bit of a dud but Court McGee vs Sean Strickland could be a fantastic little fight on the prelims. Strickland's kind of lost his way from his more exciting pre-UFC days but I Think he's still got high upside and McGee always shows up to fight.

Must Wins

1- Anthony Pettis

Anthony Pettis looked back vs Jim Miller---but that's really not enough of an indictment on what remains. Miller's a good test for if you still have enough to be considered elite but he's not quite the measuring stick for whether you ARE elite. Pettis has a lot of questions that still need answering even if vs Miller he looked aggressive while being composed, tremendous with his kicking game and more in check with each passing second of the fight. Dustin Poirier has power, variety in his hands and I can't imagine Pettis is going to outwrestle him if it comes to that. The fact that this is five rounds and Pettis has looked AWFUL in his last two fights meant for that distance is worrisome.

2- Dustin Poirier

Dustin Poirier's career will be one of two things; a long career as a best action fighters of his time but never challenged for anything major OR a career where The Diamond is able to get over the hump and contend for titles and more main events.

3- Marlon Moraes

There were a lot of subtle flaws hidden by Moraes when he was competing at the WSOF. It's not to suggest he's not really talented (he is) but when he would take his foot off of the gas, he wasn't challenged much by inferior competition. Against Raphael Assuncao, I thought he showed some of those flaws and it ultimately cost him in a close fight. Dodson is similar in Assuncao in the sense that a boring fight is a fine fight for him. If he can't blitz you and overwhelm you with his speed, he's fine with just giving you enough offense to take a decision. Moraes going down 0-2 as the 135 lb class is loading up again would be a dire circumstance so he needs this one in the worst way.

Five Fights Not To Miss:

1- Dustin Poirier vs Anthony Pettis

2- Super Sage vs El Chapo in a battle of amazing nicknames

3- Tatiana Suarez vs Vivianne Pereira

4- Joe Lauzon vs Clay Guida

5- Matt Brown vs Diego Sanchez

#MMA #UFC #Pettis #Poirier #Sage Northcutt #Clay Guida #Joe Lauzon

11 notes · View notes

gadgetsrevv · 5 years

Text

How Jurgen Klopp Took Liverpool From Nowhere To Euro Kings In Four Years

“I am the Normal One,” a grinning Jurgen Klopp told a room full of reporters while being unveiled as Liverpool’s new manager four years ago.

The charismatic 48-year-old German had just ended his break from football having guided Borussia Dortmund to back-to-back Bundesliga titles and the Champions League final. He walked in at Anfield to take over a Liverpool team that were 10th in the Premier League, labouring in the Europa League and going nowhere fast. Steven Gerrard’s stellar Reds career had ended, Luis Suarez was long gone and success seemed a long way off for the Kop faithful.

Jurgen Klopp took Liverpool from Premier League mid-table to champions of Europe in four years

Klopp said: “Does anyone in this room think I can do wonders? No. I am a normal guy. I come from the Black Forest. My mother is probably sat at home now watching this, not able to understand a word of what I am saying but very proud.”

Four years later, and Klopp has Liverpool fans feeling proud again as kings of Europe having won their sixth Champions League last season in Madrid. Here, SPORTbible looks at the key moments in Klopp’s Reds revolution from mid-table mediocrity to champions of the continent, and how Vincent Kompany helped them out.

1. Tearing apart Man City 4-1 at the Etihad

Jamie Carragher described Liverpool’s front three in this game as ‘the Red Arrows’. In Klopp’s fifth Premier League game in charge, the Reds were irresistible in ripping Manchester City to shreds. Roberto Firmino and Philippe Coutinho both scored and gave Man City’s defence nightmares and, for the first time under Klopp’s reign, there were glimpses of the pressing and “heavy metal football” that the Reds are now renowned for.

Liverpool cut apart Manchester City at the Etihad in November 2015

2. The West Brom draw celebration

In December 2015, a 96th-minute equaliser from Divock Origi salvaged Liverpool a draw against West Brom at Anfield. Klopp rounded his troops and lined them up in front of the Kop to salute the fans by joining arms and waving them up and down. The Reds have since been ridiculed for the vociferous celebrations, but Klopp’s explanation made a lot of sense.

He said: “There was a big misunderstanding against West Brom. I wanted to say thank you to the supporters after that game so I took my team towards the Kop to do it and there was a discussion everywhere about it. I wanted to show that we really we are one unit, 100 per cent one unit. That means I know I am responsible for the performance, but the people are responsible for the atmosphere.”

Liverpool’s salute to the Kop has been used to ridicule them, but it was an important moment early in Jurgen Klopp’s reign

3. Run to the Europa League final

For the first time since the Rafa Benitez days, Anfield felt like a place to be on European nights once again. Liverpool beat fierce rivals Manchester United, came from behind to see off Borussia Dortmund in a thriller, and eased past Villarreal on their run to the final in Switzerland. Klopp’s men came up short in a 3-1 loss to Sevilla and missed out on Champions League football the following season, but maybe that served them well.

Losing the Europa League final to Sevilla in 2016 meant Liverpool missed out on Champions League football the following year

4. Bringing in Sadio Mane

This is where the revolution really started. At last, Liverpool had someone with pace who could challenge the space in behind defenders and stretch teams. Liverpool forked out £34million for the Senegal star in the summer of 2016 and he’s been integral to their success and style of play.

His impact was readily apparent when he went to the Africa Cup of Nations in January 2017. Liverpool didn’t win any of their four league games while Mane was away. They were dumped out of the FA Cup by Wolves and lost home and away to Southampton in the EFL Cup semi-finals. Mane returned in devastating fashion with a double to beat Tottenham at Anfield in February and get the Reds back on track. And boy were the Kop faithful happy to see him return.

Sadio Mane brought pace and direct play which Liverpool were missing before him

5. Back in the Champions League

Despite a stutter in the second half of the season, Klopp’s men held off Arsenal to clinch fourth place on the final day with a 3-0 win over Middlesbrough. Forget their failure against Sevilla in the Europa League final the year before, Liverpool were back in the Champions League where they belong for the first time in three seasons.

Liverpool beat Middlesbrough 3-0 on the final day to secure a Champions League return

6. Bringing in the Egyptian King

Few expected Mo Salah to make quite the impact he did in his debut season at Anfield. A £35million signing from Roma in summer 2017, Salah came to England with a reputation of a Chelsea flop after his miserable spell at Stamford Bridge. Nobody, not even Liverpool fans, expected the record-breaking numbers he delivered to catapult himself into Ballon d’Or contention.

Salah scored 32 Premier League goals in his first season, the most in a 38-game season. His 44-goal haul in all competitions has only been bettered by Ian Rush (47 in 1983/84) in the club’s illustrious history.

Mo Salah made a stunning impact at Anfield after his £35million move from Roma

7. Coutinho out, Van Dijk in

Liverpool were a terrifying force going forward, led by the ‘Fab Four’ of Mane, Salah, Roberto Firmino and Philippe Coutinho. At the back, though, they were leaky. In fact, they were more than leaky. Four times between August and December in 2017 they conceded three or more goals and Coutinho’s wish to leave for Barcelona presented the opening they were waiting for.

Liverpool cashed in on the Brazilian as he moved to Barcelona in a £150m deal. They invested straight away in signing Virgil van Dijk from Southampton for £75m, and he has been a colossus at the back. A debut winner against Everton at the Kop end in an FA Cup third round tie under the lights, what a way to introduce yourself to your new fans.

Virgil van Dijk joined Liverpool in January 2018 and turned them into contenders

Liverpool were in the knockout stages of the Champions League for the first time since 2009. They breezed past Porto in the last-16 and were too good for runaway Premier League leaders Manchester City in the quarter-finals. Klopp’s men beat Roma 7-6 on aggregate in the semi-finals to reach club football’s showpiece – the Champions League final.

It didn’t work out that night for the Reds with Salah being forced off injured and Loris Karius’ howlers costing them dear in defeat to Real Madrid. But they were back among Europe’s elite.

Mo Salah left the 2018 Champions League final in tears as Liverpool lost another European final

9. The final pieces of the jigsaw

But for Karius’ calamity showing in Kiev, Liverpool might have won their sixth Champions League trophy in 2018. That performance convinced Klopp, though, that it was finally time to look for a new goalkeeper. The German boss stuck by Karius and Simon Mignolet, but he couldn’t dig his heels in any longer.

Liverpool signed Alisson from Roma for a then world record £75million fee. They had a quality shot stopper in goal behind a defence that comprised Van Dijk and two vastly improving full-backs in Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andy Robertson.

Academy product Alexander-Arnold and £8m signing Robertson have turned into assist machines for the formidable front three with their excellent delivery from wide areas.

Alisson joined Liverpool for a then world record fee of £75m in the summer of 2018

Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andy Robertson have turned into two of the best full-backs in the world

Liverpool’s Premier League campaign was going well, but they were faltering in Europe. On December 11, 2018 on match day six in Group C, the Reds had to beat Napoli 1-0 or by two clear goals to go through to the knockout stages.

Salah gave them the lead in the first half, but Klopp’s side were wasteful and never got the goals they needed to kill the game off. And in injury time, Napoli’s Arkadiusz Milik was unmarked in Liverpool’s penalty area, eight yards from goal and with the ball at his feet. Alisson stood tall and made the most crucial save of his career. Liverpool held on and qualified with PSG. Without that save, there would have been no sixth time.

Alisson’s save against Napoli in injury time was critical in getting Liverpool through to the knockout stages

11. Kompany’s stunner against Leicester

The 2018-19 Premier League title race between Liverpool and Man City was going to the wire. Neither juggernaut put a foot wrong in the closing months off the season in a thrilling battle.

Man City faced Leicester in their final home game, knowing that victory would effectively seal the title with just a trip to Brighton to come.Pep Guardiola’s men laboured to make a breakthrough as Leicester looked like taking two points off them, which would’ve put Liverpool in pole position in the title race.

Captain Kompany stepped up and fired a rocket into the top corner from 20 yards to lift Man City to victory and take them back to the top of the table. Liverpool fans knew that Leicester were their last real hope in the title race. They had just the Champions League left to play for, and in that faced a 3-0 semi-final first-leg deficit against Barcelona.

Had Kompany not scored that memorable winner, Liverpool would have been in the driving seat in the title race. Would Anfield have felt the same the following night against Barcelona? Would Klopp have rested some of his big guns for their final Premier League game against Wolves at the weekend? Who are we to speculate?

Vincent Kompany’s strike against Leicester virtually ended Liverpool’s title pursuit and meant all their eggs were in the Champions League basket

12. The greatest night in Anfield history

The final itself in Madrid was rather unforgettable. A laboured 2-0 win over Tottenham in a match lacking in quality and tempo gave the Reds the Champions League glory they craved. But there was nothing missing from their semi-final, second leg against Barcelona. Facing a 3-0 deficit with their Premier League title hopes all but gone, Liverpool were in “Never Give Up” mode.

For a club steeped in history and tradition and a stadium that has seen so many famous nights, they somehow topped it all against Lionel Messi and Co. Two goals from Divock Origi and a double from Georginio Wijnaldum completed an impossible comeback. Liverpool were in the Champions League final and on their way to six times.

Liverpool beat Barcelona 4-0 at Anfield to complete a remarkable turnaround in their Champions League semi-final

Divock Origi’s late winner against Barcelona from Trent Alexander-Arnold’s quick corner will live long in the memory

Source link . More news

via wordpress https://ift.tt/33eLtWk

#Uncategorized #Champions League #Jurgen Klopp #Liverpool How Jurgen Klopp Took Liverpool From Nowher

0 notes

thrashermaxey · 7 years

Text

Ramblings: Converted Touchdowns for Stars and Islanders, an Avalanche of Wins (Jan 21)

Converted Touchdowns for Stars and Islanders, an Avalanche of Wins

What can you say about John Klingberg, who added another three assists on Saturday to give him 40 assists and 46 points, which leads all NHL blueliners. In just 48 games, Klingberg has nearly equaled his point total from all of last season (49 points in 2016-17), while his 40 assists leads all defensemen and is top 5 among all skaters. His eight-game point streak ended on Thursday, but he still has 19 points in his last 14 games.

But it wasn’t all Klingberg for the Stars in a 7-1 rout over Buffalo. Klingberg usually provides most of the Stars’ offense from the blueline, but Esa Lindell chipped in with a goal and two assists of his own to go with a plus-4. When I watched the Stars play live last season, something that caught my eye was how much icetime Lindell receives, as he is Klingberg’s regular defense partner. Lindell has averaged nearly 22 minutes of icetime over the last two seasons, although he usually defers to the second power-play unit. I know Julius Honka has been more appealing to keeper owners over the last few seasons, but I’d keep an eye on Lindell, who a much more established NHL defender at this point.

The Stars’ scoring attack usually falls off a cliff after Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, Alexander Radulov, and Klingberg, but they did receive scoring help from another forward on Saturday. Mattias Janmark scored two goals and added an assist with a plus-2. The points were Janmark’s first in five games. Janmark lined up with the previously scratched Jason Spezza, who added two assists of his own to give him four points in his last three games. I discussed Spezza in more detail a few days ago in the Ramblings.

With a goal and an assist, Jamie Benn was able to extend his point streak to seven games. How does Benn stack up against a player like Brad Marchand? This week’s Cage Match featured a comparison of the two.

Don’t look now, but Michal Neuvirth has back-to-back wins over the past three days. Neuvirth stopped 28 of 29 shots he faced in the Flyers’ 3-1 win over New Jersey. The Flyers are back in action today against Washington, so expect that Brian Elliott will be back for that game. Elliott has played more than he’s probably used to over the first half, so don’t be surprised if we see more of Neuvirth beyond just back-to-back games during the second half. A lot will depend on Neuvirth staying healthy, though.

When I played minor hockey many years ago, there were three medals given out for each team at the end of the season: most valuable player, most sportsmanlike player, and most improved player. If these were handed out to NHL teams, the most improved medal should be handed to the Colorado Avalanche, who have already exceeded last season’s point total in half the games.

We know Nathan MacKinnon has evolved into one of the top value picks this season, and he did his part by adding a goal and an assist. But there are two other Avalanche who had strong performances on Saturday.

In stopping 27 of 28 shots, Jonathan Bernier has now won eight consecutive games, just one fewer than his team’s present win streak. During his personal win streak he has a 1.47 GAA and .958 SV%. I know the general rule is that a starter isn’t supposed to lose his job because of an injury, but this recent run could mean that Bernier factors into the Colorado goaltending equation more even when Semyon Varlamov returns. I know the Avs have faith in Varlamov, given the fact that they didn’t protect Calvin Pickard during the expansion draft. But Varlamov has not posted a GAA below 2.80 or a SV% above .915% over the last three seasons.

Erik Johnson scored a goal and added an assist in this game. He has never stood out offensively in his career, never reaching the magic 40-point mark that seems to mean universal ownership for a defenseman in fantasy leagues. But this is at least worth pointing out:

Erik Johnson has 17 points in 32 games since the start of Nov when the Lando-Mac-Ranta line was put together.

— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) January 20, 2018

Maybe I should have acquired Johnson when someone offered him to me in mid-December for a player that I eventually had to drop. But at the time I couldn’t have forecasted Tyson Barrie’s injury just before Christmas. Here’s another stat for you: since Barrie’s injury, Johnson has seven points over his last ten games (all even strength). In addition, EJ’s icetime is up nearly two minutes per game in January, some of which is power-play time. So with Barrie possibly returning next week, Johnson could be back to his old role next week, which isn’t as fantasy friendly.

The hottest line in hockey might be the Bruins’ top line of Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak, and Patrice Bergeron. This trio has combined for 56 points (25g-31a) in their past 16 games. The leader for this line on Saturday against Montreal was Pastrnak, who filled the multicategory stat sheet with two goals and added an assist with a plus-3 and eight shots on goal.

While the Bruins are on their 16-game team point streak which started on December 16, Tuukka Rask has nine wins, a 1.80 GAA and a .933 SV%. He is also 13-0-2 in his last 15 decisions. After a rough start, he’s playing like one of the league’s top goalies while the Bruins have been playing like one of the league’s top teams.

With his goal against Boston on Saturday, Max Pacioretty now has seven goals in his last seven games. Your window to buy low on him should officially be closed. At the same time, this should be a lesson that we shouldn’t just give up suddenly on consistent, proven performers.

Morgan Rielly was not in the lineup for the Leafs on Saturday with an upper-body injury. As a result, Jake Gardiner moved up to top D pair with Ron Hainsey. Gardiner took full advantage of the opportunity, recording three assists. The move didn’t affect Gardiner’s overall icetime, though, as he has been averaging around 25 minutes per game in January and logged 24 minutes in this game. Gardiner is now on pace for his second consecutive 40-point season and has five points in eight games with the increased icetime.

You could say that the Islanders have been shooting the lights out this season.

{youtube}2jIQUlDykss{/youtube}

With Ryan Pulock scoring five points in the Isles’ seven-goal explosion, an Islanders’ rookie has recorded five points in a game three times this season (Mathew Barzal has the other two instances).

Pulock’s line ended up as a goal, four assists with a plus-3 and four shots on goal. He has the offensive upside to be a fantasy contributor, but getting onto the NHL team prior to this season has been a challenge. Now that he’s on the team, icetime has been a challenge, as he has averaged just 16 minutes and change. But his situation has improved recently with the injuries to Johnny Boychuk and Calvin de Haan. He’s also been receiving second-unit power-play time, for what it’s worth.

Brock Nelson hasn’t exactly gotten in on the Islanders’ scoring jackpot this season, but he did score a goal and added two assists leading all Isles’ forwards in scoring. Nelson had not scored a goal in his previous four games and had not scored a goal in his previous 17 games, which shouldn’t be that surprising considering that he’s played outside of the top-6 for much of the season. But what happens to his fantasy value if John Tavares leaves?

I’ve been leaving Antti Raanta on my bench for much of the season, but maybe I can roll the dice and start him now. Raanta has a 1.91 GAA and .933 SV% this month, even though he has just two wins in six games.

With two goals on Saturday, Christian Dvorak snapped a 10-game goalless drought.

The Kevin Fiala/Nick Bonino/Calle Jarnkrok line was on fire on Saturday, combining for eight points. Fiala scored his first multigoal game of the season, which was a feat that he couldn’t manage when he was on the red-hot line earlier this season with Kyle Turris and Craig Smith.

Turris recorded an assist in this game, but I’ve moved him to my bench because he’s been ice cold. Turris has just three points over his last 13 games, which of course is the inevitable cool down after his hot streak (17 points in 17 games) when he first joined the Preds.

Opportunity knocks for Elias Lindholm. He replaced the injured Sebastian Aho on the Hurricanes’ first line and on the first-unit power play and took full advantage, scoring two power-play goals and taking five shots on goal. With Aho’s status uncertain after suffering a concussion and lower-body injury after a nasty hit from Mark Giordano, Lindholm will need to be leaned on while the Canes’ leading scorer is out of the lineup. We’ve been waiting for some kind of breakout, and we may get something at least in the short term.

Brent Burns is doing his thing again. With a pair of assists on Saturday, he now has at least one point in 16 of his last 19 games.

Want to know who the fantasy MVP is? According to Yahoo, it’s Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is owned in 45 percent of the top 500 Yahoo Public League teams. No one else is owned in more than 25 percent of this collection of teams, so this is a remarkable number.

Unfortunately, with the Bolts’ recent three-game losing streak, Vasilevskiy has been sputtering. Going back to the last five games (two weeks) Vasilevskiy has posted a horrific 4.64 GAA and .850 SV%. He’s been fantasy’s most valuable goalie up to that point, so you’re obviously best to be patient unless you can acquire a proven stud in return. But this slide has to be at least somewhat concerning. The Bolts’ next two games are back-to-backs on Monday and Tuesday, so expect to see Louis Domingue for one of those games. Vasilevskiy is second in the NHL in minutes played, so it might be time for a little rest.

Jesse Puljujarvi didn’t look like a player that had been held without a point in his previous eight games, scoring a goal and added two assists with a plus-3 and six shots on goal. The Oilers have moved Puljujarvi off Connor McDavid’s line, but one constant linemate since his AHL recall has been Milan Lucic while he appeared to connect with Leon Draisaitl. The Oilers haven’t been happy with their scoring from the wing since trading away Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle, so expect Puljujarvi to figure significantly in their plans going forward.

Paul Coffey has joined the Oilers in some capacity, with a formal announcement coming today. It will be interesting to see how this affects the Oilers, particularly their defense, in their latest attempt to get things right.

McLellan says Coffey’s focus will be on skill development, at all levels of organization, and with a focus on D in particular. Will work with prospects and with their NHL dmen as well. More to come tomorrow.

— Ryan Rishaug (@TSNRyanRishaug) January 21, 2018

Alex Edler might not move the needle much in fantasy. But with an assist on Saturday, he currently has a five-game point streak with six points over that stretch. He's also been shooting the puck a ton recently. With six shots on goal on Saturday, Edler now has 33 shots in seven games this month. Only Brent Burns, who leads all players by a wide margin in shots (44), has more shots on goal among defensemen than Edler this month.

For more fantasy hockey information, follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.

from All About Sports http://www.dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-converted-touchdowns-for-stars-and-islanders-an-avalanche-of-wins-jan-21/

0 notes

junker-town · 7 years

Text

Appalachian State’s a team nobody would want, if football had March Madness

The Mountaineers have a winning identity, an easy Sun Belt schedule, and a countdown until they knock off another Power 5 team.

This preview originally published February 21 and has since been updated.

Part of the draw of March Madness is the formulaic chaos. You know you're going to get buzzer beaters and rushed courts in the mid-major conference tournaments. You know you're going to get a steady stream of upsets, from the Ohio Valley Conference tournament straight on through the Sweet Sixteen. It is what you get when you base your championship on not only a single-elimination tournament, but a lot of them.

One more reliable part: a mid-major with a record like 26-6 drawing a No. 12 seed or so, playing within itself, and outclassing a power conference team with more size and athleticism.

The examples are frequent: Yale over Baylor and Little Rock over Purdue in 2016, Harvard over Cincinnati and North Dakota State over Oklahoma in 2014, etc. There’s one almost every year, and when there isn’t, there are two the next year.

The prototypical 12-over-5 upset reminds us of the importance of knowing what you are and how you plan on winning games.

For the last two years, Appalachian State has played like a 12-seed. The Mountaineers went a combined 21-5 in 2015-16, ranking 40th in S&P+ both years. They have stayed within themselves, leaned on a physical running game, defended the run, and defined most games before opponents could do the same.

The effects have been awfully impressive. The Mountaineers let two games get away — a 41-10 loss to national runner-up Clemson in 2015, a 45-10 loss to Miami last year — but nearly beat Tennessee to start 2016. Most importantly, they have handled business in their weight class. They are 20-2 against fellow Group of 5 teams, losing only a 40-27 decision against a smoking-hot Arkansas State in 2015 and 28-24 to a Troy that nearly beat Clemson.

They're still looking to collect their first power-conference scalp since moving to FBS, but it's only a matter of time. They get shots at Georgia and Wake Forest in 2017, Penn State in 2018, and North Carolina in 2019. Someone's going down at some point.

It's incredible to step back and realize how smoothly Appalachian State has acclimated to a higher weight class. It's easy to skip straight from "The Mountaineers were the class of FCS in the mid-2000s" to "They might be the Sun Belt's surest thing" and ignore what came in between, but this program briefly lost its way.

Following the title run of 2007, the Mountaineers continued to win under legendary Jerry Moore but lost their edge. They went from averaging 13 wins to 11 and fell in earlier rounds of the FCS playoffs to emerging powers like Richmond, Montana, and Villanova. Then, in 2011-12, they went just 8-4 each year.

Moore was eased toward retirement and replaced by a former quarterback of his, Scott Satterfield. And Satterfield initially bombed. The Mountaineers, having already committed to the FBS jump, went 4-8 in 2013, then began FBS life with a 1-5 record, suffering losses to a bad Southern Miss team and FCS' Liberty.

And then, poof. App State was App State again.

The Mountaineers have won 27 of 32. They've done it by being themselves, and looking at what they return this fall — quarterback Taylor Lamb, running back Jalin Moore, leading receiver Shaedon Meadors, two all-conference offensive linemen, six defensive starers (including their TFLs leader and best ball defenders) — there's no reason to think much will change.

App State has questionable depth in certain areas (offensive line, nose tackle, linebacker), which means a targeted run of injuries could be costly. But barring an extended appearance by the injury bug, this should again be at least a top-70 team. And we’ve already gotten to the point where “top 70” feels underwhelming.

Power conference 5-seeds should be happy there isn't a 68-team college football tournament. The Mountaineers would take them down.

2016 in review

2016 Appalachian State statistical profile.

App State was by any definition an awesome Sun Belt team in 2016, but the Mountaineers nearly defined the season on opening day. Taking on preseason No. 9 Tennessee in Knoxville, they bolted to a 13-3 lead and held onto it deep into the second half. The Vols needed a missed field goal by Michael Rubino (who also missed a PAT) to force overtime, then needed to recover one of their own fumbles in the end zone to escape with a 20-13 win.

After a dominant win over what turned out to be a strong Old Dominion and a disappointing blowout loss to Miami, the Mountaineers began to grind. They took their time disposing of teams like Akron, Georgia State, and UL-Lafayette. They held a little in reserve for blowouts of a nine-win Idaho and FCS-to-FBS cohort Georgia Southern.

The only blemish the rest of the way was a stumble against Troy. App State fell behind, 14-0, in the first quarter but took a 24-21 lead with about three minutes left. However, the defense suffered a rare glitch. A 43-yard bomb set up an 11-yard Jordan Chunn touchdown, and the Mountaineers’ response stalled at the Troy 38.

Still, App State finished with a 31-28 Camellia Bowl win over a strong Toledo, reaching 10 wins for the second straight year.

Per S&P+, the Mountaineers hit at least the 70th percentile seven times, and their defense hit at least the 68th percentile nine times. This was a balanced, pragmatic, and dangerous-as-hell team, the Kansas State of the mid-major ranks.

Offense

Run for decent yards on first down, avoid passing downs and negative plays, gash away with runs and short passes, win. That's been the recipe, and judging by the win total, it's worked.

Satterfield and co-coordinators Shawn Clark and Frank Ponce have a conservative system that meshes well with the conservative defense it complements.

Full advanced stats glossary.

The Mountaineers were among the most run-heavy non-option teams in 2016, rushing 66 percent of the time on standard downs (27th in FBS) and 47 percent on passing downs (11th). They kept this up even when star running back Marcus Cox was out for four games, and Moore assured that the success continued.

Moore and Cox combined to rush 30.5 times per game for an average of 186.3 yards, and not including sacks, longtime starting quarterback Lamb threw in six more carries each game for about 49 more yards. Even some of the passes were quick and short — slot receivers averaged about 4.5 catches per game and 9 yards per catch.

App State was predictable and effective, but avoiding passing downs was a must. On second-and-long, the Mountaineers would run to set up third-and-manageable. If it didn't work, they would run the ball on third-and-long to set up a more manageable punt. They avoided risk and leaned on efficiency, and while that caught up to them against Tennessee, it rarely backfired the rest of the way.

Cox is gone, but with Lamb and Moore still lined up, one imagines not much will change. Moore wasn't quite as efficient as Cox but was equally explosive, and he not only found an extra gear when Cox was out but maintained it upon Cox's return.

After averaging 3.4 yards per carry through three games, Moore averaged 6.8 per carry over the final nine games of the regular season. He rushed for 257 yards against Akron and posted eight games of 100 yards or more.

Of course, he had quite the seasoned line in front of him. App State ranked a decent 49th in Adj. Line Yards, 15th in opportunity rate, and 48th in stuff rate. The line stats were worse than the overall rushing stats (28th in Rushing S&P+), suggesting the backs were responsible for quite a bit of the success. But one what might happen without all-conference center Parker Collins and guard Jamie Collmar lined up on the interior or if there's an injury up front? Four players with starting experience return, but behind them is a wave of freshmen and redshirt freshmen. The starting five will probably hold its own, but with a couple of wobbly knees or ankles, App State could be starting first-year guys. [Update: And it added 20-game Kent State starter Brock Macaulay, eligible immediately.]

That would put more on Lamb’s shoulders.

Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

Taylor Lamb

Over three years as App State quarterback, Lamb has trademarked the Game Manager role. He is not asked to throw much on third-and-long, and when he does, things don’t turn out well (career passer rating on third-and-10 or longer: 91.7). But he makes smart decisions, he gets the ball out quickly, he lowers his shoulders for tough yards when he needs to, and he keeps the plane in the air.

Lamb gets some key weapons back, too. Shaedon Meadors was by far App State's No. 1 target in 2016, with nearly double the targets and catches of the No. 2 target and nearly triple the yards. He and fellow seniors Ike Lewis and Zy Letman will provide the big-play threat in play action. (Watch out for three-star sophomore Mock Adams, as well.)

Watch out for Darrynton Evans in the slot, however. Two of last year's top three slot receivers are gone (junior Deltron Hopkins is back), but Evans was recruited as an "athlete," and after spending most of 2016 as a backup running back and kick returner, he's taking reps at receiver this spring. Meanwhile, another athlete — three-star freshman Malik Williams, a high school quarterback and maybe the jewel of the 2017 class — could carve out an interesting role. Whatever it takes to peel a defender or two out of the box. [Update: Joining in 2018 will be WR Corey Sutton, the player Bill Snyder briefly blocked from a transfer out of Kansas State.]

Defense

Tennessee's Josh Dobbs finished the season with a 150.6 passer rating; he managed a 115.3 against App State. ODU's David Washington had a 156.6 for the season and a 78.7 against the Mountaineers. Georgia State's Conner Manning: 123.1 and 54.2, respectively.

Miami's Brad Kaaya and Toledo's Logan Woodside managed to carve out solid performances against this defense, but they were exceptions. The Mountaineers were tremendous against the pass, ranking 11th in Passing S&P+ with a 57 percent completion rate against and 12 touchdowns to 20 interceptions.

This was a problem for opponents because a) they were usually playing from behind against App State, and b) they couldn't really run either. The Mountaineers ranked 42nd in Rushing S&P+, and while big plays were an issue, they ranked 13th in rushing success rate allowed and ninth in power success rate.

Aside from needing to make a few more stuffs against the run, the App State defense was incredibly well rounded.

A lack of injury helped. Coordinator Nate Woody was able to get away with a rather tight rotation -- only five linemen made more than 7.5 tackles, only four linebackers made more than 14, and only six defensive backs made more than 11. In all, 17 players averaged at least one tackle per game, and those 17 combined to miss six games.

That probably won't happen again. And depending on what units get hit, regression to the injury mean could have an impact.

Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images

Devan Stringer & A.J. Howard

App State appears to be fine at defensive end, where Tee Sims and Caleb Fuller combined for 17.5 tackles for loss (a large total for ends in a 3-4 system), and junior Okon Godwin made a pair of TFLs in reserve time. Plus, youngsters like redshirt freshman Matthew McClurg and freshman Jermaine McDaniel Jr. came well-regarded.

Outside linebacker seems suitably stocked, too. Leader Kennan Gilchrist is gone, but seniors Devan Stringer and Rashaad Townes bring experience to the table, and three-star sophomore Akeem Davis is ready for a star turn. Safety might be fine, too -- senior A.J. Howard, junior Josh Thomas, and sophomore Desmond Franklin are solid.

Cornerback could be a strength. Clifton Duck was one of the best freshman corners in the country last year. While his dance partner, Mondo Williams, is gone, and only Tae Hayes and Brandon Pinckney bring experience to the table, there’s a good chance the Mountaineers get Latrell Gibbs back. Gibbs had a monstrous 19 passes defensed in 2015 but missed 2016 with academic ineligibility. [Update: Gibbs transferred out.]

Injuries elsewhere could cause problems, though. At inside linebacker, two of the top three are gone, leaving Eric Boggs and less proven pieces. Most worrisome, perhaps: Two of last year's top three tackles are gone. Junior Myquon Stout lives up to his name, but behind him will be either freshmen or converted ends.

Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

Clifton Duck

Special Teams

If you noticed freshman Rubino last year, it was while he was missing two kicks during the Tennessee game. Upon return from Knoxville, though, he was mostly fine. He missed only the one PAT and was perfect on field goals inside of 40 yards.

"Mostly fine" describes the unit as a whole, actually. App State ranked 75th in Special Teams S&P+ -- neither good nor bad. Punter Bentlee Critcher and punt returner Jaquil Capel are gone, but I figure this unit will be about the same in 2017.

2017 outlook

2017 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 2-Sep at Georgia 20 -14.2 21% 9-Sep Savannah State NR 48.5 100% 23-Sep Wake Forest 64 2.8 56% 28-Oct at Massachusetts 111 11.0 74% TBA Coastal Carolina 114 17.7 85% TBA Georgia Southern 98 14.1 79% TBA New Mexico State 124 21.1 89% TBA UL-Lafayette 112 17.2 84% TBA at Georgia State 113 11.6 75% TBA at Idaho 119 13.1 78% TBA at Texas State 129 21.5 89% TBA at UL-Monroe 121 14.5 80%

Projected S&P+ Rk 62 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 69 / 44 Projected wins 9.1 Five-Year S&P+ Rk 6.8 (40) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 112 / 107 2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* 8 / -1.7 2016 TO Luck/Game +3.7 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 76% (80%, 72%) 2016 Second-order wins (difference) 9.4 (0.6)

I do worry about injury. App State had less of it than most teams last year, and a change could mean relying on freshmen at running back, offensive line, defensive tackle, or cornerback. It's hard to overcome that.

Of course, if anybody could, it would probably be the ridiculously steady Mountaineers. Satterfield has put together a unified squad that combines a high ceiling with a really high floor.

Perhaps best of all, App State misses both Arkansas State and Troy on the conference schedule. (Well, that's "best of all" for the Mountaineers, but not necessarily for football fans.) And none of their four conference road opponents projects better than 113th in S&P+. (I assume Idaho will be better than the projected 119th, but App State is still an obvious favorite there.)

That means, in theory, a really high win total. Say, 10 or 11. Just like last year and the year before.

Team preview stats

All preview data to date.

0 notes

thebigcitynightsband · 7 years

Text

Bus King/Busking/Night Moves

That’s a photo of me and my ex-gf. I just found it last week in my bag that Jamie brought to me from Burlington, thanks Jamie bro. Happier times, man. We’re still friends but we don’t see each other much. That’s a repeating pattern with me. Me and a gal will break up, declare an intention to stay friends, and then I be their friend while they work hard at vanishing from my life and into the arms of some dude who hates me cuz I’m still her friend. Happened with Jessica, happened with Courtney. Next time I’ll just do the sudden severance. Seems to work for other people.

Well, fuck. I’ve been struggling a little bit lately. Still sober, still pissing in a cup every day. My hours got cut at work for a few weeks but they’re back up to full-time next week, where they’ll remain until mid-December. I’m trying to save my apartment, need to find a roommate to take over the lease, which requires first and last, which I don’t have but I’m trying to acquire somehow.

A few days ago I went busking for the first time in about a year. Queen and University is my corner, northwest side. I like it there because you get a lot of 905ers coming out of Osgoode Station to go explore Queen West, people who don’t ordinarily see buskers, so they’re generous. I can only play for about three hours on an acoustic before my fingers start to hurt too much to play chords, and you average about six bucks an hour. I write a lot of songs that way. “Make It Mine” off the new album was written while busking last year and I came up with a few new ones the other day. It was a good day, actually. I woke up broke and without food and ended the day with a full belly and a pack of cigarettes and an Arizona Iced Tea. I felt content. So I’m gonna go back out there tomorrow. And probably the next day too.

My laptop died and I almost lost the record, but I was able to extract the files after a few days of feeling numb and worried. I really like our upcoming album, the songs have kept me good company over the past year, and the thought of losing the whole damn thing, save for “Fighting Ways” which is finished, and a handful of others, was a little scary. It’s not gone though. Sweet relief. BCN songs are like cockroaches. They find a way. Cue “Long Distance King” in your head as you read that last line...”we’ll find a waaaaay, we’ll fiiind a waaaaay.” Glory days. Before everything went to shit.

Hey, know what’s a great record? Break Up Break Down by Reigning Sound. Listen to the quavering, breathless delivery from Greg Cartwright on this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7fWcZKZR3jg

Another great one off that record is called “Want You,” a really sad, pretty ballad. I’d like to make an album of Memphis ballads some day, in the vein of Break Up Break Down. We’ll call it Fuck Up Fuck Off or something.

I set up my keyboard tonight with a mind to do some overdubs tomorrow. I’ve been avoiding doing keyboard overdubs on the album forever because I’m a terrible keyboard player and it takes a really long time to get a single coherent take and I don’t have the patience that I used to. I finished “Night Needles” from A Steamroller Named Desire in a single evening, and that song has probably the most piano of any BCN song. I doubt I could do the same thing now. I’m older now and runnin against the wind, as Bob Seger would sing. Has sung, whatever. Running Against the Wind. I love that song. “Wish I didn’t know now what I didn’t know then” is a great line eh? Legend has it Seger wanted to cut that line but the producer told him how great it was, which it is. Oftentimes artists can’t recognize their own greatness. Years ago, when I was sixteen or so, I was trying to put together a set of acoustic covers in my bedroom. I remember doing “Leave It Alone” by Moist, which is pretty embarrassing now, but also “Against the Wind” and an acoustic version of the Smashing Pumpkin’s “Ava Adore,” which I was surprised to find has a very similar chord progression as “Against the Wind.” I mean, those two songs sound nothing alike, yet they’re very alike, chord-wise.

ANYWAY I’m rambling. Just finished an assignment for a client (I do people’s homework for them as a side hustle. Forty bucks here, sixty bucks there, it all goes into the giant hole I dug for myself the past few years.) I owe money to one guy who actually chased me this past January, up near Dovercourt and Hallam. I had to jump a couple fences but I got away. He’ll get paid soon enough. They all do.

I’m working on it man. Pushing against the tide. Runnin against the wind.

One last thing about that Bob Seger song: I’ve always thought that part where he yells “let the cowboys ride!” at the end of the song was stupid. Why couldn’t he have taken that part out? It’s so obvious that he was out of ideas and just mustered up the best open field imagery he could in the moment. Let the cowboys ride? Given the greatness that comes before that line, I can’t dismiss the song, even if it’s not as good as the immortal “Night Moves.”

A quick word about “Night Moves” before I go. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_mRFWQoXq4c I honestly think it’s one of the greatest all-time vocal performances. There are three distinct parts in the song that always give me shivers. The first is that irresistible “summertime summertime” part @ 2:19. The second comes in that great breakdown, when the title changes from a sexual innuendo to a somber, forlorn musing on the passage of time and how time can move slower when you’re bored, faster when you’re absorbed and excited. Ain’t it funny how the night moves...when you just don’t seem to haaaaaaaave as much to lo-o-se. It’s that “have” that always gets me...just the way Seger gives it the perfect amount of witsfulness and gravelly gravity. Fuckin killer. Singing is always a fine balance between technical proficiency and emotional delivery, but on that line Seger’s 99% heart, 1% technique, and it still sounds incredible. To me, at least.

The last part is in the final minor descending refrain @ 5:04, even though it’s just Bob doing a bunch of “ooooohooohoohhhs.” It wouldn’t be as good if that vocal came over the main riff, but it doesn’t. It comes over the same chord progression as the chorus, that sad lilting minor key descent. Every time, man. Every time.

I’ve been trying to cover “Night Moves” since 2007. I don’t think I’ve ever got past the first chorus. I just can’t sell it. Those aren’t my memories, they’re Bob Seger’s. I never existed in the 1950s America he’s singing about in the song, the America of taking your sweetheart to the drive-in, cruising the strip, going to diners and pushing coins into jukeboxes. That wasn’t my adolescence. So it’s a tough one to sing. You have to know when you’re beaten. That’s part of growing up.

I don’t talk to my Dad anymore. He hates my guts and so does his girlfriend. It doesn’t bother me except for when I hear certain songs...songs like “Night Moves” or “Walking On The Moon” by The Police...first time I ever heard my father sing on the way to Owen Sound for a hockey tournament I was playing...it was the chorus, that “no way, chasing your cares away” part, and we had sunflower seeds and that was the night I fell in love with highways and movement and travel and all that Kerouac stuff I’d get obsessed with later, all those fuckin notebooks I filled with eager scrawling about road trips I hadn’t yet taken. I lost all those notebooks somehow, can’t remember maybe I tossed them all on purpose, kind of a year zero event. Too much in those notebooks was lines from existing songs. I remember one time going through an old notebook and seeing “the sea is foaming like a bottle of beer” and thinking I’d written it...nope...it was a Weezer song. I’d just scrawled out that one line hammered one night, drunk at 17, back when it was actually exciting to get drunk and not a sad chore like it later became.

I’m going busking tomorrow. I might not be able to do “Night Moves” but I can bust out “Against the Wind.” I ain’t licked yet. It ain’t over. I’m older now and still runnin against the wind. Let the cowboys ride or whatever.

Edit, PS: That was a really dramatic fuckin post. I’m sorry. For some much-needed levity, here’s a picture of me from last week. Some friends visited while I was in bed, and I came out to say hello still holding my book. PPS: Hey, know another great Bob Seger song? “Still the Same,” especially those ghostly backing vocals in the second verse. Check it out: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HjDpKeiYxOU PPPS: Hey, know another song that has cool ghostly additional instrumental in the second verse? Bruce Springsteen’s “Downbound Train.” It’s not his greatest song and I don’t like Bruce’s overdone “blue collar accent,” the dumb slurring he likes to do in order to sound more like a mechanic making $20 000 a year, but that beautiful synth organ that comes in on the second verse is just heartwrenching, listen for it @ 0:49: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nc_mv46NwT4 The organ has a pretty sweet solo for one-bar starting at 1:21. If I could get that organ tone, I wouldn’t put off doing keyboard overdubs, lemme tell ya son, I tell ya what.

#goleafsgo

0 notes

gadgetsrevv · 5 years

Text

Premier League predictions: Lawro v athletics legend Michael Johnson

In-form Leicester go to Anfield on a high after hammering Newcastle last weekend, but can they end the Reds’ flawless start?

“Leicester have done very well,” says BBC football expert Mark Lawrenson. “We know how good Jamie Vardy is up front and of course Foxes boss Brendan Rodgers is going back to his old club, which gives this game an extra edge.

“Rodgers will be thinking his side can get at Liverpool after watching Red Bull Salzburg score three times on Wednesday night, but it is the other end where I think they will struggle.

“I look at Leicester defensively and I do not see them holding out.”

Lawro is making predictions for all 380 top-flight matches this season, against a variety of guests.

This week he is up against athletics legend and BBC pundit Michael Johnson.

Johnson, a four-time Olympic gold medallist and eight-time world champion, is part of the BBC team at the 2010 World Athletics Championships in Doha

Johnson, who also runs his own performance training company, recently met up with Tottenham boss Mauricio Pochettino to share some of his sporting knowledge.

“We have worked with many teams in the past – Arsenal, Manchester United and some of the Brazilian clubs,” Johnson told BBC Sport.

“We focus on athletic development, away from the skill of the sport.

“It was fantastic visit to Spurs to see how they operate, and great to talk about how they are integrating athletic development into their academy and building players, and helping young players achieve their potential.

“Mauricio has a real winning mindset and understands the psychology around players, and how motivation is extremely important.

“We talked a lot about how that approach is very different with each athlete, because each athlete is motivated differently. He shows a keen understanding of that and I think that is why he has been so successful.

2019 World Athletics Championships Venue: Khalifa International Stadium, Doha Dates: 27 September-6 October Coverage: Watch live on BBC TV, BBC iPlayer and BBC Sport website and app; Listen live on BBC Radio 5 Live; Live streams, clips and text commentary online.

Premier League predictions – week eight Result Lawro Michael SATURDAY Brighton v Tottenham x-x 0-2 1-3 Burnley v Everton x-x 2-1 2-1 Liverpool v Leicester x-x 2-1 4-2 Norwich v Aston Villa x-x 1-1 2-0 Watford v Sheff Utd x-x 2-1 0-2 West Ham v Crystal Palace x-x 2-0 2-0 SUNDAY Arsenal v Bournemouth x-x 2-0 1-0 Man City v Wolves x-x 3-0 3-1 Southampton v Chelsea x-x 1-2 0-3 Newcastle v Man Utd x-x 1-1 0-1

A correct result (picking a win, draw or defeat) is worth 10 points. The exact score earns 40 points.

LAWRO’S PREDICTIONS

All kick-offs 15:00 BST unless stated.

SATURDAY

Brighton v Tottenham (12:30 BST)

It would not surprise me if Tottenham manager Pochettino leaves the club in the near future.

Since the summer, some of the things he has said – like when he talked about how he is ‘only the coach’ and has no say in transfers – makes it feel to me like he is in the process of a long break-up.

I have thought for a while that Pochettino looks tired and how it looks like being Spurs manager has become a chore for him – but maybe he does not need time out of football, just out of Tottenham.

‘My feeling is so bad’ – Pochettino on heavy Bayern defeat

Spurs paid the price for chasing their Champions League game against Bayern on Tuesday when they were 4-2 down, and ended up conceding seven goals in total.

But I still think they will go to Brighton and win.

Spurs have got some very good players. Yes, they have had a stinker but surely there will be a reaction this weekend.

And the Seagulls have got problems of their own, with only two points from their past six games.

Brighton manager Graham Potter is reaching the stage where he might need to rethink his philosophy about playing good football for the sake of picking up some points.

Lawro’s prediction: 0-2

Michael’s prediction: 1-3

Burnley v Everton

Everton lost to Manchester City last time out but I thought they did all right. At least they had a go.

That is part of the problem, though, because we have not seen enough performances like that from them.

It is strange how they did not do the same against Sheffield United in their previous home game, for example.

Everton 1-3 Man City: Positives to take from City defeat – Marco Silva

Goals remain an issue for the Toffees, and that situation is not going to change anytime soon.

I know Dominic Calvert-Lewin scored against City but they do not carry enough of a threat up front, especially away from home where they have only managed one goal in three matches this season.

They have also picked up only one point on the road – a 0-0 draw at Palace on the opening day, before defeats by Aston Villa and Bournemouth – which does not exactly give me great belief they will get anything at Turf Moor either.

You know what you are going to get from Burnley, and I don’t think Everton are going to be able to deal with it.

Lawro’s prediction: 2-1

Michael’s prediction: 2-1

Liverpool v Leicester

I appreciate that Leicester are dangerous when they go forward, but I don’t think they are good enough at the back to get themselves a result at Anfield.

There do seem to be a few issues in the Liverpool defence right now, but there is nothing wrong with the front three.

Leicester will have to do more in attack than they managed at Old Trafford last month, when they lost to Manchester United. Apart from forcing David de Gea into an early save, they did not really do enough against a team in transition.

Liverpool will offer a much tougher test and it feels to me like Leicester will have to be at the very top of their game and take every chance that comes their way if they are going to get something out of this one.

Lawro’s prediction: 2-1

Michael’s prediction: 4-2

Norwich v Aston Villa

You can tell I have got my doubts abut Norwich because I have predicted them to lose every game so far this season, but their home form is actually very good.

I do worry about the Canaries, because they beat Manchester City and played brilliantly, then got beaten easily at Burnley and Crystal Palace without looking like they were going to trouble either team.

Crystal Palace 2-0 Norwich Players need to learn from ‘harsh’ lessons after Palace defeat

Their away performances have to get a lot better, because their survival hopes cannot rely exclusively on what they can do at Carrow Road. If it is all about that, then eventually the pressure will tell.

Another problem Norwich have is at the back. They have conceded 16 goals in seven games this season, which means they usually have to score at least two just to get a point.

On paper, you would expect them to beat an Aston Villa side who have lost three out of three on the road this season – but results alone do not tell the full story for Dean Smith’s side.

There were in winning positions with less than 20 minutes to go at Tottenham and Arsenal, but lost both games, and were unlucky not to get anything from their defeat by Crystal Palace too after having a late equaliser controversially ruled out.

Both teams were promoted last season and have had some big lessons about how hard the Premier League is.

There are reasons why they are both in the bottom four and they need to improve if they are going to climb the table.

As far as Saturday goes, I am going to go for a 1-1 draw because I cannot see either side keeping a clean sheet.

Lawro’s prediction: 1-1

Michael’s prediction: 2-0

Watford v Sheff Utd

After last week’s defeat by Wolves, Watford are now the only top-flight team without a win.

I am not sure exactly what is wrong with the Hornets because they look a shadow of the side they were last season, despite having most of the same players that finished 11th.

Sheffield United showed against Liverpool last week that they will give everybody a game but I just have a funny feeling this will be the game where Watford stop the rot.

That has nothing to do with form, obviously. It is more that we know how good the Hornets players can be, and this might be the week where things start to happen for them and new manager Quique Sanchez Flores.

Lawro’s prediction: 2-1

Michael’s prediction: 0-2

West Ham v Crystal Palace (17:30 BST)

Both of these teams are going well and West Ham, in particular, have impressed me.

They seem to have added a bit of steel at the back compared to last season and Andriy Yarmolenko has shown how good he is since returning from his long-term injury.

The Hammers have more to offer in attack than Palace do, which is why I think they will get the win here. I just can’t really see the Eagles causing them too much trouble.

Lawro’s prediction: 2-0

Michael’s prediction: 2-0

SUNDAY

Arsenal v Bournemouth (14:00 BST)

Arsenal were pretty awful against Manchester United on Monday but they will look at a draw at Old Trafford as being a good point, regardless of United’s current position.

Emery wants ‘more’ from players after Man Utd draw

Bournemouth have made a bright start to the season but I don’t look at this game as one where they will expect to get anything – they have not picked up a point in four previous visits to the Emirates, and I don’t think that run will end this weekend.

Yes, the Cherries will have chances, but Arsenal are going to have a lot of the ball and they have the quality in their attack to make it count.

Lawro’s prediction: 2-0

Michael’s prediction: 1-0

Man City v Wolves (14:00 BST)

Wolves play in Turkey in the Europa League on Thursday night so this is a tough turnaround before they travel to play the defending champions.

Manchester City made a big statement with their win last weekend, because a lot of people were expecting their makeshift defence to crack when Everton had a go at them.

Everton 1-3 Man City: City need to fight to defend title – Pep Guardiola

I would argue that going to Goodison Park and winning was one of their best results so far this season, and I think they will find things a lot easier on Sunday.

Wolves are better when they come forward than they are when they sit in, and I am expecting City to find a way through them.

Lawro’s prediction: 3-0

Michael’s prediction: 3-1

Southampton v Chelsea (14:00 BST)

Chelsea have had a good week, with wins over Brighton and Lille, but they are still a side that gives chances away.

Frank Lampard’s side are improving week by week but, at the moment, they are still a team that can be vulnerable in different periods of games.

Chelsea ‘needed’ that victory over Brighton – Lampard

That is what I am expecting to happen at St Mary’s. The Blues should win, but Southampton will have some opportunities too, and it is going to be close.

I was actually expecting more from Saints this season in their first full campaign under Ralph Hasenhuttl, but so far they don’t look like they have got much better.

They are still waiting for their first home win of the season, and I don’t think they will get it this week.

Lawro’s prediction: 1-2

Michael’s prediction: 0-3

Newcastle v Man Utd (16:30 BST)

Newcastle waved the white flag at Leicester on Sunday.

They completely capitulated in the second half and I am sure Magpies manager Steve Bruce will have made it clear to his players this week just how unacceptable that was.

We were badly punished for big mistakes – Bruce

I would expect to see a reaction from them, and I also think some of the Newcastle fans who stayed away from their draw with Brighton will be back for this game.

Manchester United huffed and puffed their way through their draw with Arsenal on Monday and never really looked like they were good enough to take full control of the game.

I understand why United boss Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is saying it is going to take time for his side to turn things around but, as well as having a long-term plan, they need to get back to winning ways soon.

Lawro’s prediction: 1-1

Michael’s prediction: 0-1

Lawro was speaking to BBC Sport’s Chris Bevan

How did Lawro do last week?

From the last set of Premier League fixtures, Lawro got eight correct results, including three exact scores, out of 10 matches for a total of 170 points, his highest score of the season so far.

He beat former Tour de France winner Geraint Thomas, who got six correct results, with one exact score, for a total of 90 points.

+/- DENOTE POSITION DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LAWRO’S TABLE AND ACTUAL POSITION TEAM P W D L PTS +/- 1 Man City 7 7 0 0 21 +1 2 Liverpool 7 6 1 0 19 -1 3 Chelsea 7 5 1 1 16 +4 4 Tottenham 7 4 2 1 14 +2 5 Leicester 7 4 1 2 13 -2 =6 Arsenal 7 3 3 1 12 -2 =6 Man Utd 7 3 3 1 12 +4 =8 Aston Villa 7 3 2 2 11 +10 =8 Everton 7 3 2 2 11 +7 10 Newcastle 7 3 0 4 9 +9 =11 Burnley 7 2 2 3 8 0 =11 Crystal Palace 7 2 2 3 8 -2 =13 Bournemouth 7 2 1 4 7 -5 =13 Sheff Utd 7 2 1 4 7 -1 =13 Watford 7 2 1 4 7 +7 =13 West Ham 7 2 1 4 7 -8 =13 Wolves 7 2 1 4 7 0 18 Southampton 7 2 0 5 6 -4 19 Brighton 7 0 2 5 2 -3 20 Norwich 7 0 0 7 0 -3

GUEST LEADERBOARD 2019-20

Score Guest leaderboard 104 Lawro (average after seven weeks) 100 Adam Peaty 90 Helen Housby, Jo Harten, Geraint Thomas 70 Craig Mitch 60 Stefan Ratchford 50 Chelcee Grimes, Reece Parkinson, Sam Warburton 40 Stephen Fry

Total scores after week seven Lawro 730 Guests 500

Source link . More news

via wordpress https://ift.tt/2OfOOjC

#Gossip Premier League predictions: Lawro v athletics legend Michael Johnson

0 notes

junker-town · 8 years

Text

Appalachian State’s the kind of team nobody would want, if football had March Madness

The Mountaineers have a winning identity, an easy Sun Belt schedule, and a countdown until they knock off another Power 5 team.

One more reliable part: a mid-major with a record like 26-6 drawing a No. 12 seed or so, playing within itself, and outclassing a power conference team with more size and athleticism.

The prototypical 12-over-5 upset reminds us of the importance of knowing what you are and how you plan on winning games.

And then, poof. App State was App State again.

Power conference 5-seeds should be happy there isn't a 68-team college football tournament. The Mountaineers would take them down.

2016 in review

2016 Appalachian State statistical profile.

Still, App State finished with a 31-28 Camellia Bowl win over a strong Toledo, reaching 10 wins for the second straight year.

Offense

Run for decent yards on first down, avoid passing downs and negative plays, gash away with runs and short passes, win. That's been the recipe, and judging by the win total, it's worked.

Satterfield and co-coordinators Shawn Clark and Frank Ponce have a conservative system that meshes well with the conservative defense it complements.

Full advanced stats glossary.

That would put more on Lamb’s shoulders.

Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

Taylor Lamb

Defense

Aside from needing to make a few more stuffs against the run, the App State defense was incredibly well rounded.

That probably won't happen again. And depending on what units get hit, regression to the injury mean could have an impact.

Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images

Devan Stringer & A.J. Howard

Injuries elsewhere could cause problems, though. Clifton Duck was one of the best freshman corners in the country last year, but his dance partner, Mondo Williams, is gone, and only Tae Hayes and Brandon Pinckney bring experience to the table. At inside linebacker, two of the top three are gone, leaving Eric Boggs and less proven pieces.

Most worrisome, perhaps: Two of last year's top three tackles are gone. Junior Myquon Stout lives up to his name, but behind him will be either freshmen or converted ends.

Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

Clifton Duck

Special Teams

2017 outlook

2017 Schedule & Projection Factors

Of course, if anybody could, it would probably be the ridiculously steady Mountaineers. Satterfield has put together a unified squad that combines a high ceiling with a really high floor.

That means, in theory, a really high win total. Say, 10 or 11. Just like last year and the year before.

Team preview stats

All preview data to date.

0 notes