#its been a mess attempting to file grievances with that school

[skullz-chamber]

Last night I was about to sleep early and my sister called me bc Isaac ( my youngest nephew who is 8, autistic, has ADHD, a speech impediment and ODD ) got a concussion at school bc his teacher threw him. She claims she lightly jerked her arm from him and he fell but mans was speaking straight jibberish for 30 mins, couldn't walk properly and couldn't eat. I'm like.. girl I'm one deranged mf and even I've never thrown Isaac.. you're literally not fit to be around children and that's coming from someone who is property of the state.

[i-did-not-mean-to]

Back to school - Chapter 3 - Kira

So, my first short AU has turned into a soap opera really fast...

Here's another Kira chapter...❤️👩🏻‍🏫

Fandom : The Hobbit

Characters : Oh everyone

Rating : Gen up to now

Warnings: Turns a bit dark, a tad of crying, histrionics and it's a dilettantish attempt at an AU

Kira watched them walk away, the new kid almost tripping over his own feet trying to catch up with that monstrosity of a teenager stomping away moodily.

She remembered vaguely what it had been like to be this young and to stumble upon a pretty face that hit one unawares like a right hook into the jaw; and, just as she had that thought, one of those faces appeared just above her.

“Miss Kira, I see you’re still hale.” That man had a voice like running rivers, cold and beautiful, Kira thought. As beautiful as her new colleague, Thranduil, was, she distrusted him instinctively. There seemed to be a lack of that kindness in him that she had come to expect in a teacher.

“Why wouldn’t I be?” She snapped, exhausted from this first day of work and troubled by all the secrets flitting around and nipping at her skin. “You’ve got the trash class.” He shrugged, his perfectly toned shoulders heaving with disgusting elegance and poise. Why could he not be as ugly as his words? It would make disliking him so much easier!

His freaking son was in that class, Kira thought, for crying out loud. How could anyone be that facetious?

“I’d be ever so grateful if you could refrain from making remarks such as these.” Her tone could grow just as cold and sharp as his, she decided. “Oh, you’ve warmed up to them, have you?”

There was a flash of something behind the obvious mockery; for a moment, Kira thought she had seen a hint of surprised joy, but the spark was gone before she could hold on to it or commit it to memory.

“They have been very nice. Your son has a rare talent for drawing.” She replied, carefully. “He’s a nitwit.”

Bitterness, Kira could taste it on her tongue as if that man in front of her was literally spewing acid. He was disappointed, but whether it was himself or that sweet-tempered boy of his who caused him such distress, Kira could not yet tell.

“He is not and you’re an asshole for saying so.” The words were out of her mouth before she could bite them back.

Wonderful, she had met exactly 3 other adults this far and she had managed to insult one of them to their face within the first day of her arriving at her new post. Kira deserved an award for hasty reactions that would lead to trouble and pain.

One thick eyebrow lifted with agonising slowness until it reached its zenith in a perfectly calm face.

“Strong words.” A drawling snarl, devoid of bite or anger; he seemed rather amused by her outburst that coloured her cheeks a flaming red and made her eyes shine with a ferocious fire. Kira liked to think that she looked intimidating or fierce, but she was old enough to be aware that she actually resembled a young girl running a fever when she got angry.

His eyes shifted into something that was now definitely mournful as he told her that there were many things she didn’t know and, with a sharp sadness, he added: “Maybe, someone with a soft heart like yours should not have come here.”

Bristling, she got up and pushed past him into the school building.

Who was he to tell her where she was to go or not? He knew nothing about her either, or about the things she had done and seen in her life. A soft heart, pfff, indeed.

Making her way through the halls and corridors, and getting turned around only twice, she finally entered the small administration office where a handsome woman with long, black hair was clacking away on her keyboard.

“I am…I have…I am new here and I’d like to see the files of the class I’ve been given.” Kira announced, rather badly, and the woman looked up with a disinterested face. “Which class would that be?”

Damn, she didn’t even know the name of the class, for she was sure that DD was not the official code. “Mister Gandalf’s class? I’ve taken over for Mister Smaug.” She mumbled, hoping that the lady would know which class she was talking about without her having to confess that she was a terrible teacher who had not done a rollcall or learned what the official denomination of her class was.

“You poor dear, how much time do you have?” The woman gave a wry chuckle. “Time?” Kira cocked her head.

“Go through to the library, I’ll bring you the files.” She patted Kira’s hand, lying cramped on the little counter before her. Those treacherous hands, she thought, always clenching without her knowledge, and betraying her inner turmoil.

As she sat in a corner of the library, she thought back on her first day: her colleague was like an ice-king from a fairy tale, cold and beautiful, and her class turned out to be a bunch of grumpy misfits.

Well no, only the two tall boys, the other ones seemed agreeable enough, but Kira was not used to scowling teenagers. It made her feel ill at ease and unwelcome; everything in this place made her feel unwelcome and she had half a mind to go home again and call it a day.

She had tried, but there was no place for her, not here, not anywhere else.

The door opened and the woman from before shoved a document cart piled high with folders in.

“You’re new to the town too, aren’t you?” The woman nodded slowly when Kira admitted that she was. “You and the curly boy, you don’t even know what mess you’ve gotten yourself into.”

Making a non-committal gesture, Kira encouraged her to go on. “You’ve met Dwalin and Thorin, I expect. They’re the local troublemakers. Hmmmm…” The woman pulled out a chair from under a deserted table and leant against it as if she couldn’t bear to sit down for this story.

“Their family, Thorin’s parents to be exact, they had a business. Beautiful it was. It burned down…some say, Smaug, the former teacher was behind it. We don’t know. There was some point of contention between them, but…”

“What about Thranduil?” Kira asked, the question falling from her numb lips.

“Oh…he…it was a beautiful business as I said and there have been important possessions of his lost in the fire. It…it is a time ago now. Thorin’s father has disappeared, you know, and Thranduil thinks he might have taken off with the most valuable parts. I don’t know if that’s true.”

The woman bit her lip, she knew she was gossiping, but she obviously thought that Kira had a right to know those things. Probably, she wanted to chase her away, but with every word, Kira’s faltering resoluteness firmed up again.

“Who is taking care of them? They’re kids.” Kira cried out, horrified by what she was hearing.

“Older cousins; they’re a strange clan. Secretive. Weird. Hostile. Thorin should have graduated, but he sticks around for his sister. Thranduil is her headteacher.” The woman sighed heavily. “We’re all one tangle of resentment and hate here.”

A fire, Kira thought, a future gone up in flames, a legacy fallen to ashes.

“What kind of person was this Smaug?” She then prodded on, curious about her predecessor.

“Smaug? Sly, charming, wickedly smart, very cunning…and dark. Oh, Kira, can I call you Kira? Leave girl, there is nothing here for you. Smaug and Thranduil? They survived here because their hearts have turned to stone a long time ago. The kids will hurt you; destruction is all they know.” She took a deep breath.

“Those children were raised on hatred, they absorbed distrust at their mother’s tit, they suckled on hostility. They will take everything from you if you let them.” The woman tapped the folders on the cart.

“I’m telling you, you don’t need to know. Leave this place. There’s too much death around here.”

Everything in Kira revolted.

“What made people that hard and bitter?” She asked, breathless with shock and pity.

“Loss. If you lose someone you love, you seek for culprits and there are more than enough potential candidates around here.”

Kira thought of young Bilbo’s flush, of Thorin’s shy smile and Legolas’ beautiful drawing, and grabbed the first one of the folders resolutely. “I have nothing to lose.” She whispered and plunged into the heart-breaking life story of one Tauriel; a girl who had impressed her with zealous interest and brave kindness.

The woman left and soon after, the door to the library was shoved open again and Gandalf strolled in, his grey wool cardigan stained with chalk and his beard hiding a sad smile.

“You’ve taken an interest in them, I see.” He said in a low voice, but his presence startled Kira so much that she uttered a frightened yelp. “Yes, yes, I wanted to know what all this talk of hate was about.”

Kira set aside the folder she had been browsing. “You have been crying.” Gandalf said softly, handing her a handkerchief and sitting down on the discarded chair the administrator had left pulled out.

She sniffed; she had just found out that the sweet-tempered blonde boy, son of the imperious colleague with the amazingly beautiful eyes, was semi-orphaned. His report cards said he was dumb, slow to understand and illiterate, but Kira had seen him read. All the notes about him betrayed a sense of impatience and exasperation that must have heightened the pressure on the poor kid, she thought. It was hard enough to be another teacher’s son, did people have to expect so much of a boy his age?

“Come, I’ll invite you to a milkshake, Miss Kira.” Gandalf extended his hand with the same natural friendliness as he had when handing her a handkerchief earlier. “Ah, you’ve kept the worst one for last.” He tapped on the thick folder bearing Thorin’s name.

Kira didn’t want to admit it, but she was frightened. The woman had been partly right and there was a lot of darkness in this town; shady things had happened, and Kira was unable to comprehend how people could burden mere children with past grievances they had not been a part of.

“There’s a little shop just down the main road.” Gandalf was chattering gently, shoving the last file into her satchel, and steering her out of the gloomy library carefully. “It will do you good to get out of this building.”

When she saw the blinking lights, her eyes burned and she wondered how long she had been sitting in the dark library, crying helplessly over the fate of children she had only met today.

“Miss Kira!” A honey-coloured mop of hair appeared in her blurry field of vision, and she was tempted to sling her arms around Bilbo. “Bilbo…” She sighed. “Oh, have you been crying?” Bilbo looked up, alarmed and worried.

“I’m okay, kiddo, it’s all fine.” She lied, she knew it and so did Bilbo.

“Oh, that girl over there, that’s Thorin’s sister.” Gandalf whispered into her ear. Kira looked up only to see the beautiful creature that had been with mopey Dwalin before class. She should have known, Kira thought, now that she saw them together, it was as clear as day that they were related.

“God, they’re such charming children.” Kira sighed under her breath. “Isn’t he just?” Bilbo sighed along, blushing a dark pink under Kira’s gaze that had snapped back to him. Kira didn’t know what this town’s ideas and beliefs were on that kind of crush; she had not been here long enough to gauge how people reacted to single women and same-sex couples, but it was clear that Bilbo himself felt terrible about his own words.

Kira wondered if there was no hairdresser in town, all the haircuts she had seen this far were exceptionally long and flowy, or awful like Ori’s, and the fact that half of all the people she had met this far were cramped into the small ice-cream shop reminded her of the woman’s words. They really were all packed one on top of another, all the time, no wonder there were frictions and animosities.

“Hello, are you the new teacher?” Kira snapped out of her reverie to be confronted with the fresh face of a young girl who looked up at her expectantly. “You sure are pretty.” She went on, which made Kira blush.

“I am Dís, I’ll introduce myself, old Thrandy interrupted me before and…my brother is useless.” She had the most dazzling smile, small dimples to either side of her generous mouth that was so unlike the grim line of her brother’s and eyes like a summer sky. She was the first happy person she had met, Kira realised, and her eyes flew to Thorin who observed them with meticulous sharpness.

His baby sister, of course, he’d throttle me on the spot if I threatened the girl in any way.

“I am…the new teacher. I’m not so sure about the pretty part.” Kira murmured, unsure how to proceed with Bilbo and the girl both now staring up at her as if she owed them some kind of explanation or answer to a question nobody had asked.

“Was Thorin very gruesome?” Dís asked with a mix of morbid pleasure and honest worry. Kira saw Bilbo flinch; so this was how they would handle things, she thought, Bilbo and her would be more or less mockingly warned so as to counteract every single potential disappointment…or expectation.

Squaring her shoulders, Kira lifted her chin and replied: “No, I expect great things of the young man.”

An eerie silence fell over the group and Kira could feel Gandalf stiffen just behind her; he was hovering in the door as if to keep her from retreating. Little did he know that Kira usually met her fears head-on, she would not back out of a shop because she happened upon a group of students; not even when it was obvious that she had been crying.

“Nothing ever happens here, so tell me, what did you think of old Thrandy? He was certainly flushed and a little grumpier than usual…” Dís had an infectious smile, Kira thought as she felt her own lips being pulled up by an unseen and unfathomable force. “Mister Thranduil was…very courteous.” She replied weakly, remembering with painful clarity how she had called him an asshole in the least civil display of discontentment possible, short of shoving him outright.

The idea of shoving someone that tall and strong made her giggle under her breath.

“He doesn’t like us much.” Dís said it off-handedly, but Kira had been a teacher for too long not to notice the tiny quiver that made her smile blur for a second. Once again, Kira wanted to protest and assuage the girl’s pain, but what did she really know? She had only arrived in this clusterfuck of a town.

“Do you think…could you like us? Please?” Her huge eyes shone like headlights. She looked so much like her brother, only softer, more open, and much more vulnerable. It was the age, Kira thought, it was the fact that he had always held his hand over her and, right now, he bulldozed towards them.

“Dís…leave the woman alone.” He gave her an apologetic smile; begging for affection was beneath his dignity apparently, so Kira turned her attention back to the girl and sighed: “I’m doing my utter best.”

“We’re not so bad, really. Don’t…don’t believe what people say.” She tapped her finger against the folder sticking out of Kira’s satchel. Her brother’s name was clearly visible and, unlike Kira, Dís seemed to know exactly what lay between the faded grey layers of cardboard.

“Dís, that is enough. Leave her be.” Thorin repeated, trying to pry his sister away. “Don’t mind her.” He said to Kira.

“Let go of me, you stupid oaf. How many times have you cornered old Thrandy in the hallway on my behalf? Can I not, for once, speak up for you?” Her eyes were flaming with blue fire now, reminding Kira of a copper flame.

“Don’t…don’t believe what people say, I can only ask you to make up your own mind. Both of you…” Dís then addressed both Bilbo and Kira who exchanged a puzzled look. “I don’t know anything about the idle tittle-tattle of the town.” Bilbo puffed up his chest and made a small gesture of dismissal.

Kira, on the other hand, did not know what to say. As a professional, she was bound to put at least some faith in the words of her colleagues and her predecessor; she knew teenagers to be manipulative, potentially mean-spirited, and profoundly selfish beings. It would have been more careful to heed the warnings others had given her.

“So…about your milkshake?” Gandalf prompted her from behind and Kira thought that she needed something stronger than a milkshake tonight to get settled into bed, but she would not get shit-faced in front of the students.

“The strawberry one is good.” Bilbo offered. Her eyes slid over the sign hanging on the wall.

“Chocolate-Mint?” She turned to Gandalf. “Unusual.” He commented. “Nobody likes that much.” He made a face.

“I am not everybody else…and I do.” Kira replied firmly and followed the man to the counter to escape the students.

The whole town seemed strangely informal to her and yet, there were so many things she could not quite understand, as if there was a deeper, darker truth hidden behind every brazen interaction.

“I see Thorin has taken a shine to the new kid.” Gandalf commented in a low voice when he returned with their drinks to the little booth Kira had taken in the meantime, far away from the kids, in a quiet corner. “At this time, he’s usually in the little hardware shop his family keeps.”

Kira could hear that Gandalf was trying to tell her something, but her head was still fuzzy with second-hand pain and first-rate confusion. “You’ll fit right in with us, I think.” Gandalf went on, nodding at her bare hands. No rings. For a woman her age, it was rare, and as her colleague and superior, he of course knew that she had come here alone.

No husband. No children. No emergency contact either.

“Young Bilbo is an orphan.” He murmured on. “There are too many orphans in this town.” Kira replied tonelessly.

“It wasn’t always like that…It won’t be like that forever.” Gandalf said and she had to believe in the faith vibrating strong in his voice. Of course, it wouldn’t stay like that, Kira thought, they would grow up and if this place was not right for them, they would find another one.

She drank her milkshake slowly, eager and reticent at the same time to take a look at that last file in her satchel. Her mind was full of what other people had told her: her colleagues, the administrator, that girl…

When she dared glance over, she saw Bilbo laughing at something Dís had said, and it seemed like the ghost of a smile danced on Thorin’s face. God, there were so many open scowls and just as many aborted smiles in this town.

“Are they…” Kira started to voice her concerns, but relapsed into silence, it was none of her business.

“Are they what, dear? Allowed to flirt? I’d hope so, these things come easier to the younger generation.” Gandalf tapped the side of his nose as if he knew that she was hopeless in the romantic department.

“I don’t need to know.” She said hastily, almost tipping over her empty glass as she got up and grabbed her satchel.

“Kira? You will soon learn that there is no escaping “knowing” in this town. I am so sorry, but you’ll eventually have to choose a side. Will you take the easy path?”

She froze.

“Here, take this. I’ll see you at work. Tomorrow.” He handed her yet another handkerchief, a beautiful, delicate thing that had no business being in the possession of a slightly scatter-brained, decidedly masculine headteacher.

“I bought it in the emporium that once was.” Gandalf said with a sad smile. “Before the fire.” Kira answered tonelessly.

“Thranduil said that someone with my soft heart should not be here.” She felt like telling on the colleague, but the recollection of his words cut deep, and she needed some kind of reassurance.

“Thranduil believes softness to be weakness. Do you have a strong heart, Kira?”

She did not know how to answer that question; it was novel to her, nobody had ever asked her anything remotely as confusing and irrelevant. She had never had any medical problems of the cardiovascular variety, but she doubted that this was the meaning he had been trying to convey.

“We’ll find out soon enough.” He grinned and when the door swung open, he sat back and waited.

“Miss Kira.” Already, she recognised the shy, quiet quality of the voice that reminded her of those wispy curtains her aunt Imelda used to have in her living room and that had ended up torn to shreds by her vicious Siamese cats.

“Legolas.” She turned around, satchel in hand, only to find her face almost pressed into the perfectly starched button-down of someone who has definitely not the nearly translucent boy.

“Mister…” – “If you can call me asshole, you can call me Thranduil.” His voice cut like a well-honed blade, slicing easily and elegantly through her defences…No jagged edges, no serrated indentations…Acid running like water and leaving nothing but burning pain behind.

She was tempted to call him asshole again, but she clenched her teeth before bowing her head slowly.

All the kids eyes were glued to her now; she could feel the prickling heat of their gaze on her neck. “Good evening. I’m on my way home.” She said courteously and tried to push past them.

“Legolas, go sit with your classmates, I’ll walk your teacher home.” Thranduil declared with icy determination.

“Why? What danger could lurk in the shadows for me when clearly, everyone is here?” Kira snapped.

“No, he’s right. It is not safe.” She had not noticed that the students had come up behind her, but she could hear that it pained Thorin to the core of his heart to admit that the hated teacher was, for once, not completely wrong.

“Stay with your classmates, Legolas, I will walk Miss Kira home.” Thranduil repeated and Legolas shuffled his feet for a moment before being pulled away by Bilbo. He didn’t get along with his classmates, Kira knew, but the fact that Thorin had not objected, told her that they all agreed to this plan.

Kira could not fathom what peril could hide in this sleepy, little town other than being smitten by a lightning bolt made of pure contempt and hatred, but when Thranduil held the door open for her, she moved outside readily enough.

For a while, they walked in resentful silence, each one thinking about the angry words that had been uttered between them. “I took…” She started, but he waved her words aside. “I know where you live.”

Of course, he knew. Everyone knew. Maybe, she’d be murdered in her sleep by the cloud of ominous darkness hovering over every square inch of this godforsaken place.

“Lock your door and say your prayers.” He mumbled, looking tired all of a sudden, as if the polish had worn away and washed off and all that was left was a middle-aged man who was alone in the world with a child he could not understand and a bunch of neighbours he didn’t like.

“If you see a fiery red sports car…” he started and waved her past her own building and towards a small corner shop.

“If ever anything feels amiss, you call Gandalf, the school, me…and you come here.” He went on insistently.

“Thranduil.” Another man stepped out, his eyes cautious and guarded as they fell on her tall companion. “Balin, this is Miss Kira. She’s your boys’ new teacher.”

The older cousin then, Kira thought, barely older. Where were the women in this town? Where were the mothers?

“It was mighty good of you to take her home.” Balin nodded slowly, giving Kira an appraising look.

“Now, look here lass, if anything happens, you come here.” – “What should happen?” Kira wanted to laugh, but she remembered: there had been a terrible fire, a man had disappeared, a car had been damaged, mothers had been lost. She was an outsider, and she knew nothing of the things that haunted these people.

“If he comes back.” Balin just replied and Kira was surprised at the grave nod Thranduil gave as a reply.

“Who? Smaug? What kind of guardians are you if you let someone that dangerous be alone with your little ones?” Kira exploded. “Little ones? Have you seen Thorin and Dwalin? They’re hardly little ones.” Balin laughed heartily.

“He held sway, let’s put it like that, and we could not dislodge him against his will.” Thranduil explained suavely.

“Not that you’ve tried really hard.” Balin mumbled into his beard.

“He was a fucking menace; he’s done terrible harm to those children!” Kira could not fathom how they could be so calm about that. “Aye, that’s a grief we all have to live with. I don’t think he’d come back, but if he does…well, we’ll know how to deal with him.” Balin said with pride in his voice.

“I’d rather let him tear me limb from limb than expose any of my students to that monster ever again!” Kira could feel the tears of anger and helpless indignation threaten to dash her brittle voice to pieces.

“You’re a fiery one, lass, I’ll give you that. Maybe, we all need more of this around here.” Balin chuckled and gave her a card. “Oi, Miss Kira, everything alright?” Dwalin came out, his hands covered in dark dust and his face glistening with sweat.

“Yes, I am fine. Suffocating on so much testosterone, but I am alright. One would think some evil power would send ghouls and dragons after me as soon as I step out alone.” She chuckled under her breath.

“Don’t wander around alone too much. I trust Thorin and Dís have taken care of the new kid?” Dwalin nodded when Kira’s eyes widened. They were being herded like sheep. With a tiny nod of the head, Dwalin and, what Kira surmised must have been his older brother, returned to their shop.

“They’re distasteful people, but they can protect you. We’re just up there.” Thranduil accompanied her back to her own suite of flats, pointing at a small rise where a beautiful white mansion peeked out from a patch of dark trees.

“Don’t call them distasteful.” Kira grumbled. “Lady, you call people assholes.” He reminded her.

“I’ll never live that one down.” She said through gritted teeth. “No, you won’t. We have a long memory when it comes to grievances and offenses.” It didn’t sound like a threat, there was no anger or even hurt in his voice; he was merely stating facts.

Rolling her eyes at him, she jangled her keys and made her way into the building. All of this was completely ludicrous, but she locked her door twice and fastened the bolt as well before taking off her shoes and cuddling up on the small sofa.

Kira wished she had someone to talk to, someone who would be interested in her first day at work and who would laugh and groan with her about that absurdly handsome, stuck-up, judgemental, overly sensitive colleague of hers whose eyes made her wish for summer and picnics outside.

Also, she yearned for someone to hold her as she opened the thick file and leafed through records of detentions and disciplinary procedures until she came to a clear line in Thorin’s academic career: he had been a good student, wild and impatient but also diligent and gifted, up to a certain point and only after that had he turned into a teacher’s nightmare.

Kira rubbed her eyes, she could barely believe that those words, “dangerous”, “vicious”, “devious”, “insane”, should be applied to a man that young. Thinking back, she saw a hunched-over youth, uncomfortable in his skin, wary, and definitely traumatised; she had never had the feeling that he had been threatening her in any way though.

One thing was for sure, Mister Smaug had hated the kid and he had not missed a single opportunity to make his life miserable, going as far as scribbling defamatory notes about Thorin’s family into the official records.

Piecing together what she could glimpse by reading between the lines, the family had built an emporium, but the grandfather’s megalomania had attracted the wrong kind of attention, and everything had literally gone up in flames. The father had disappeared, leaving the son to bear the burden of a reputation of being a greedy, thieving beggar – born and bred.

Nobody could see her now, so Kira lay down her head and cried.

It had been only one day, and already, she had no idea what to do and how to go on in this quagmire of secrets and lies.

Her mind wandered back to those fresh faces, to the willingness of Tauriel and Ori to work, to Bilbo’s calling out to her to give her opinion, to Legolas’ pride over a drawing, to Thorin’s and Dwalin’s surprising protectiveness, and she knew that even if Smaug came back and set her ravishing asshole of a colleague on fire in front of her eyes, what really mattered were the children. She would try her best to make a difference…at least for those who might change the fate of the world…in time.

[theliberaltony]

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Brett Kavanaugh has never been a popular Supreme Court nominee — and he’s probably becoming more unpopular still following allegations earlier this month by Christine Blasey Ford that Kavanaugh had attempted to sexually assault her when they both were in high school. No one this unpopular has ever been been confirmed to the Supreme Court; the only previous nominees who polled as poorly as Kavanaugh either had their names withdrawn (Harriet Miers) or lost their confirmation vote (Robert Bork). And all of this polling was taken before at least two other accusations surfaced of potential sexual misconduct involving Kavanaugh1 — and before Ford and Kavanaugh’s testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee, which is scheduled for Thursday.

President Trump and Congressional Republicans are not afraid to take unpopular actions in pursuit of their ideological goals. Last year, they spent many months trying and failing to pass a repeal of Obamacare, even though those efforts were extremely unpopular. And they passed a tax bill that was highly unpopular at the time of its passage, although its numbers have since improved some. The Supreme Court is at least as much of a priority for Republicans.

The difference on Kavanaugh is that there are several other conservative nominees who could potentially replace him — and who may have been better picks in the first place. In other words, you would think Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell have better options. Amy Coney Barrett, for example, a judge on the 7th Circuit and one of Trump’s reported finalists when Kavanaugh was chosen, has several advantages from the GOP’s point of view. She’d potentially be more conservative than Kavanaugh, at least on issues such as abortion; she’s already been confirmed (to her circuit seat) by the current Senate; and it might not hurt Republicans to choose a woman when the four conservatives on the current Supreme Court are all men.

Barrett also isn’t facing several accusations of sexual misconduct, as Kavanaugh is.

But there’s a midterm coming up in just six weeks. And there’s about a 3 in 10 chance that Republicans lose the Senate, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast. Could Republicans really get Barrett or another nominee confirmed before then? And if not, could they confirm her in the so-called “lame duck session” after the midterms but before the new Congress meets on Jan. 3.

The answers are “possibly” and “probably” — but the timing is getting dicier by the day. As of Tuesday morning, we’ll be 42 days away from the Nov. 6 midterms, and exactly 100 days away from when the new Congress convenes. The eight current members of the Supreme Court variously took between 50 and 99 days to be confirmed:

How long does it take to confirm a Supreme Court justice?

Days from nomination to confirmation for current members of the Supreme Court

Justice Days from nomination to confirmation Ruth Bader Ginsburg 50

–

John Roberts* 62

–

Neil Gorsuch 65

–

Sonia Sotomayor 66

–

Stephen Breyer 73

–

Samuel Alito 82

–

Elena Kagan 87

–

Clarence Thomas 99

–

Days until midterms 42

–

Days until next Congress 100

–

*Roberts was initially nominated for associate justice and then withdrawn and re-nominated for Chief Justice; our count of his confirmation time includes the combined time from both nominations.

Source: WIKIPEDIA

That makes the timing awfully interesting (and makes Republican complaints about Democratic delays to the process a little easier to understand). If Kavanaugh were to withdraw his name today, and Trump were to nominate someone else in his place tomorrow, the GOP might be able to confirm the replacement before the midterms — but the timing would be tight and would require a faster confirmation process than for any current member of the Supreme Court.

The lame-duck session would be a safer bet, but it’s not without risk for the GOP. One problem is that they might lose the Senate — to repeat ourselves, there’s about a 30 percent chance of this. Because the Senate is a much heavier lift for Democrats than the House, in the scenarios where the GOP loses the Senate, they’d probably also lose the House by wide margin; in our simulations, Republicans lose an average of about 50 (!!) House seats in scenarios where they also lose the Senate. The House doesn’t have any say in the Supreme Court nomination process, but would Republicans really want to push forward a nomination after losing by such a landslide margin?

My guess is probably yes — a Supreme Court seat really is that important to them. But the politics are uncertain; there aren’t really a lot of recent precedents for a party taking such significant action during the lame duck session. And several Republican senators, after just having seen their colleagues take a drubbing in the 2018 midterms, might be skittish about what such a vote would mean for their survival in 2020, when the Senate map is a fairly tough one for the GOP.

In addition, there’s the chance the next nominee could have vetting problems, too. Historically, about 25 percent of Supreme Court nominations lapse, are voted down or are withdrawn.

Here’s the thing, though. The longer the GOP takes to replace Kavanaugh, the worse the timing problems become for them. If, say, the confirmation process on Kavanaugh drags out for another two weeks before he’s voted down or withdrawn, and then Trump takes another two weeks to choose a replacement because the overall process has become such a mess, then confirmation before the midterms would be extremely challenging. There also might not be enough time to seriously vet the new nominee before the lame-duck session, giving Republicans less margin for error then, too.

So why not just “plow right through” and vote to confirm Kavanaugh anyway, allegations and everything else aside? Although there’s a good chance McConnell is bluffing, that seems to be the current plan, with McConnell having promised a vote in the “near future” on Kavanaugh and no accusers other than Ford set to testify.

The problem is that this is an extremely live news story; with several new accusations having come out against Kavanaugh over the weekend and debates about the credibility of Ford’s allegations still ongoing. It’s hard to know what would happen to Kavanaugh if more accusations came out after he’d already been confirmed to the Supreme Court, but the possibilities include impeachment and serious long-term damage to the Court’s reputation — along with whatever additional price the GOP had to pay at the midterms. Even if the GOP were able to confirm Kavanaugh before the midterms this year, a landslide election could put the GOP in a considerably worse position to hold the Senate when other Supreme Court nominations come up in 2019 through 2024.

Put another way, there are huge risks to the GOP in both rushing to confirm Kavanaugh and in letting the process play out for several more weeks — which means encouraging Kavanaugh to withdraw now, however painful it might be, is probably their least-worst option.

There is one other possibility, which is that McConnell — who reportedly didn’t want Kavanaugh to be chosen in the first place — could be rushing through the process in the hopes that Kavanaugh will be voted down (or forced to withdraw once it becomes clear that McConnell doesn’t have the votes). Back when Ford was Kavanaugh’s only accuser, this had seemed like a fairly likely exit strategy: The hearings would be engineered to allow Kavanaugh to save face, and perhaps to allow Republicans to stoke some grievances with their base. But wavering GOP senators such as Susan Collins and Jeff Flake would find some excuse to oppose his nomination and his nomination would be pulled. This scenario still seems like a distinct possibility — but the fact that the Kavanaugh story is developing so rapidly, with the stakes continuously increasing with every news cycle, could mean that McConnell is now pot-committed to the bluff even if he’d been hoping to keep his options open before.

I haven’t said much about the potential electoral upsides to the GOP of the confirmation process, such as possibly increasing base turnout, and putting vulnerable Democratic senators such as North Dakota’s Heidi Heitkamp to a tough vote on Kavanaugh or another nominee. That’s because I’m a little bit skeptical of them. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, it’s not clear that rank-and-file voters care about the Supreme Court as much as party activists and other “elites” do. And despite predictions that Anthony Kennedy’s retirement would help the GOP, Republicans’ electoral outlook has only gotten worse since then (and they’ve had especially poor polling in the past week or two).

For all that said, the Kavanaugh story has become unpredictable enough that its electoral effects are fairly uncertain, even if they’re weighted toward the downside for the GOP. If I were a Republican member of Congress facing reelection in 2018 or 2020, I’d just much rather take my chances with Barrett than with Kavanaugh.

[writestufflj20]

Promise and A Thousand Rejections: Ronald Whitenhill & the Pursuit of Higher Education

by Misha Ponnuraju

It is 2:37 PM on April 28th, and 260 Aldrich Hall has been flooded by the uninterrupted trill of the phones and sound of tired voices—Ronald Whitenhill, UCI alumnus and admissions counselor, being one of the unlucky five trapped here on this otherwise beautiful spring day. This is the Office of Admissions at the University of California, Irvine. Today, thousands of people are getting rejected.

The notices of denials are given to multitudes who have applied to transfer from community colleges. For three hours, there have been at least eight different scorned students waiting to speak to an admissions employee. Ronald is prepared for every type of woe and whine. Working at the Admissions office since 2012, Ronald has seen through every, so-called, “unique situation” in the wake of the denials season. He has heard all of the stubborn grievances and unrelenting pleas. He has seen people threaten to sue and file complaints. Ronald is unmoved by all of them—especially today, as people are being increasingly insolent in the wake of disappointment. “I’m going to sue,” a denied student threatens on the phone, “I am going to bring my lawyer in and sue your school.” Other students outrightly deny the reality of their admissions status. “You’re lying to me, you aren’t telling me the truth. I need to talk to an admissions counselor.” At this point, this student admissions employee has reached her capacity for patience. Now, she turns to her supervisor, Ronald. “This is Ronald Whitenhill, an Admissions Counselor at UCI. How may I help you?” Ronald attempts to recapitulate what the employee has already said, but cuts down the delivery time of bad news significantly. He discusses competitive GPAs, minimum unit counts for junior-level transfer—some of the criteria for admissions. Phrases like, “What it comes down to is….” and “Sir, we are going in circles…” are heard in a thunderous voice that is heard throughout the office and past the cubicles. Occasionally, application evaluators, who are tucked safely in offices away from the scorned masses, will peak out their heads—curious about the verbal confrontation. “Listen.” Ronald’s stern voice signals the end of his patience. This demand brings a smirk to the student employees, who knows that Ronald won’t hold back his punches. He is done playing nice. At a certain point, the office responsible for giving a seventy thousand rejections must draw the line. Whether that line be GPA or standardized tests, Ronald is ready to let them know the bottom line is. At 5 o’clock, when the office has been granted sanctuary at the end of its business day, Ronald reflects on the reason for this chaotic time of year. “UCI is no longer a back-up school. UCI is evolving.” ____________________________

Not to say that Ronald has no sympathy for students who put their heart and $75 application fee out for judgement and scrutiny. Ronald went through that experience himself—initially as an undergraduate student and now, as faculty member at UCI. Ronald has become all too familiar with UC Irvine and how the campus buzzes throughout the admissions process. In the fall of 2016, UC Irvine received a record-breaking amount of applications— 104, 672 in total. In the previous year, UCI received 97,717. After UCLA and UC San Diego, UCI has become the third most applied to university in the United States--a surprising demand for a young university that very recently celebrated its 50th anniversary. This popularity has a direct impact on the competitive nature of receiving admissions--increasing the average GPAs and standardized test scores of those hoping to become an Anteater (UCI’s famous mascot). This was not always the case, according to Ronald. “Nowadays, the students who want UCI are the ones who have been working hard since their freshmen year. They are engaged from the very beginning. Back in the day, the students who attended UCI were the types of kids who were smart enough to get into the higher-tiered UCs--LA, Berkeley, whatever. These kids are the ones who messed around and realized, “Wait I need to go to college. They’d start to shape up by their junior year. I was one of those kids.” Ronald entered UCI as a freshman in 1999. Bio major—thinking about medical school. This is a common characteristic of incoming freshmen, 40% of which came in as a Biological Sciences major with hopes of an M.D. at the end of their name. Ronald’s kryptonite eventually became his chemistry courses. “I’d study for the first midterm and get overconfident by the second, you know? Wasn’t my thing.” Ronald did not find his true passion wearing a lab coat at McGaugh Hall. Instead, he found his passion further down Ring Road at the Cross Cultural Center. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, Ronald spent his free time advocating for Student Initiated Programs (SIP), a student-led effort throughout the UC System to increased the enrollment of underrepresented students. “This effort still has a presence on campus—today, you know it as the SOAR Center.” The Student Outreach and Retention Center (SOAR) exists on campus, providing mentorship programs and academic assistance to undeserved undergraduate. Current SIAPs (Student Initiated Academic Programs) include the American Indian Student Association at UCI and Black Student Union—both representing student populations at UCI that are beneath 5%. In his day, Ronald’s specific work with SIPs included applying and receiving a $10,000 grant to create outreach programs for high school students from marginalized communities, specifically the African-American community. However, Ronald was able to combine his passion for outreach with other organizations beyond the one he found at the Cross Cultural Center. Ronald merged his undergraduate experience and affinity for higher education as he worked within his fraternity, Alpha Phi Alpha—a historically black fraternity founded in 1906. Within this community, Ronald worked in a program called, “Go to High School, Go to College”—an outreach program that inspires and motivates young African-American men to pursue higher education. “I still connect with some of the men I met through this program. I typically meet these young boys when they were 9th or 10th graders. The ones I have stayed in contacted with have graduated university, some of them pursuing a Master’s Degree. One is on his way to a PhD.” Ronald still checks up on them through social media, a motivation as he continues to work in outreach. This type of representation is increasingly important. On UCI’s own campus, the population of underserved minorities, like African Americans, still remain at a dismal number of 3%. However, this has an interesting affect on the population existing at UCI, something that Ronald has personally experienced and has commented, “UCI has 300,000 students. When there’s only 1,000 of you, you’re going to say hello. You’re gonna stick together.” Ronald’s intimate experience in outreach gave him reason to be at UCI—true meaning and excitement. However, the residual lack of fulfillment from his academics prompted a change in him.

While most people believe that the path to higher education is a straight path, Ronald attended UCI until 2004 before taking a seven-year hiatus to begin a professional career at Target. “I got bored,” Ronald explains. “I was tired of that cycle and needed to do something different.” This restlessness brought pushed him to enter the professional workforce—leading him to get a job as a team leader, or supervisor, at Target. Thus began a seven year career as a manager in retail. However, despite being away from education, Ronald found himself being brought back to it in surprising ways. “There were these kids—just graduated—who came in and immediately got better positions than me. I was smarter and a better thinker than them, but they had a Bachelor’s and I didn’t. It really makes you think about what a BA means.” At Target, Ronald discovered patterns between his undergraduate experience and his new professional career. “Without a doubt, the extracurricular experience of leadership was directly applicable to the workforce. These opportunities of a B.A. is what makes it valuable. I eventually got supervisor positions without a BA—I relied on talent, leadership, and skill. However, having a BA would’ve brought me to that place earlier.” Ronald’s philosophy regarding higher education evolved after he had left it; the value of a B.A. does not lie solely in the lessons taught within the classroom, but it also includes the opportunities found in student organizations. Being able learn and execute leadership within the close-knit community of UCI—a characteristic that Ronald considers exclusive to the Irvine campus—is what makes new graduates from four-year universities valuable. Beyond his personal experience as a worker, Ronald’s conceptualization of the importance of higher-education also stems from the characters he met at Target. In this corporate atmosphere, Ronald witnessed firsthand the potential consequences not having the privilege of higher education from accredited institutions. The majority of his cashiers were female employees—sometimes young mothers—who were also trying to go to a certain type of nursing school. However, many of these women were stuck in cyclical obstacles as they had enrolled in for-profit universities. These institutions were less spaces for academia and vehicles for upwards mobility than they were  keeping students in an expensive trap. The consumers who were drawn to this type of institution were often nontraditional students without an educational background from all walks of life—working adults, single moms, and the like. “These institutions weren’t made to set these students up for success.”  Ronald could not help but compare this to the resources and opportunities he saw available at a four-year university—especially UC Irvine, which is ranked as the #1 university to assist low-income and first generation students by the New York Times in 2015. At a certain point, Ronald knew he had to finish what he had started. His experience in corporate America was enough to motivate him complete his education — understanding that there is still more work to be done in outreach and more he has to learn. Ronald ended up returning as a student in 2011, and graduated in 2012 with a Bachelor’s degree in Political Science. After graduation, he finally began to work at the Office of Admissions—coming full circle from an undergraduate student to working behind the scenes as an admissions counselor.

Now that Ronald is able to continue his outreach as a counselor at UCI, his position has more weight and power. Ronald is well acclimated with the type of student that UCI seeks—the passionate, well-rounded, intelligent student that can bring something meaningful to the UCI campus. Typically these, students are ones who have been groomed to attend school from birth. Oftentimes, those in underrepresented minorities do not have this privilege. Ronald is from both of these worlds—the world of higher education as it becomes increasingly competitive and the community of minority communities that are not typically born in those privileged atmospheres. Out of 104,067 applications, around seventy thousand will not get accepted—thousands of dreams unfulfilled and hearts broken. The gap between the educated haves and have-nots can be closed—the ability of students from underrepresented communities is one that is oftentimes underestimated. Ronald, with his perspective from both sides of admissions, has faith in these applicants. “Look at the kids who are able to excel in situations that are not conducive to success. Those kids are the ones who will be able to succeed here and go back to their communities. All they need is information. They need to know how the system works to get a part of it. These kids are smart, and they can do it.”