“I know undercards don’t matter. You don’t need to drive the point home so hard.” UFC 234 From Australia Preview
WHEW boy! Let's talk about this right quick. Let's begin with the positives of this card which are readily apparent. The two big middleweight fights at the top of the bill are pretty damn good. Even IF we assume that Israel Adesanya vs Anderson Silva is nothing more than a high level MMA human sacrifice, the mere presence of Anderson Silva makes this must see appointment television. Silva vs Adesanya will at least be memorable and the middleweight title fight is probably the best fight to showcase the transition from old and clunky to young and vibrant. Robert Whittaker and Kelvin Gastelum both represent some truly positive things ranging from the benefits of cutting less weight to the rise of young and athletic in a division run by a bunch of Muks. The bad news is that the rest of this card ranges from "It's intriguing but not quite worth the spot it has" to "How could anybody care about this?" Some of these fights in all fairness are solid well put together contests pitting two solid fighters with similar records/places in the division----but most of these fights would have a hard time being considered appropriate main card ESPN+ fights. They want you to pay for the privilege of seeing Montana De La Rosa and Nadia Kassem. Remember that folks. Let's chit chat about it.
Fights: 12
Debuts: Marcos Rosa, Callan Potter and Raulian Pavia
Fight Changes/Injury Cancellations: 2 (Ryan SPANN OUT, Sam Alvey IN vs Jim Crute/Alex Gorgees OUT, Callan Potter IN vs Jalin Turner)
Headliners (fighters who have either main evented or co-main evented shows in the UFC): 5 (Israel Adesanya, Anderson Silva, Kelvin Gastelum, Robert Whittaker and Lando Vannata)
Fighters On Losing Streaks in the UFC: 2 (Wulliji Buren, Teruto Ishihara)
Fighters On Winning Streaks in the UFC: 6 (Robert Whittaker, Israel Adesanya, Kelvin Gastelum, Ricky Simon, Dong Hyun Ma, Rani Yahya)
Main Card Record Since Jan 1st 2017 (in the UFC): 23-5
Kelvin Gastelum- 2-1 (1)
Robert Whittaker- 3-0
Anderson Silva- 1-0
Israel Adesanya- 4-0
Ricky Simon- 2-0
Rani Yahya- 3-1
Montana De La Rosa- 2-0
Nadia Kassem- 1-0
Jim Crute- 1-0
Sam Alvey- 4-3
Debuting Fighters (2-7): Callan Potter, Raulian Pavia, Marcos Rosa
Short Notice Fighters (1-2): Callan Potter, Sam Alvey
Second Fight (5-1): Nadia Kassem, Jim Crute, Devonte Smith, Kai Kara France, Jonathan Martinez, Jalin Turner
Cage Corrosion (Fighters who have not fought within a year of the date of the fight) (3-0):
Undefeated Fighters (1-6): Nadia Kassem, Israel Adesanya, Jim Crute
Fighters with at least four fights in the UFC with 0 wins over competition still in the organization: Dong Hyun Ma
Weight Class Jumpers (Fighters competing outside of the weight class of their last fight even if they’re returning BACK to their “normal weight class”) (3-3): Nadia Kassem, Jalin Turner
Twelve Precarious Ponderings
1- "What is this PPV gonna draw?" is going to be a pretty complicated discussion when you factor in all of the usual elements at play. For starters, the top two fights could not be anymore appealing. Four well known proven middleweights who have headlined enough events (be it on free TV, PPV etc) to at least have some cache with fans. Gastelum, Whittaker, Silva and Adesanya all have highlight reel worthy performances to make for a hell of a sizzle reel. Both fights have compelling enough stories to get people excited. We know fans don't necessarily care about undercards as much as you'd think so the complete ass-ness of the undercard is not entirely worthy of discussing.The counterpoint is that this card as a whole is very weak, it's an international PPV (which fans seem to not necessarily associate with quality) and historically speaking Robert Whittaker and Kelvin Gastelum have been anti-draws on PPV, Silva is the big star who hasn't been relied upon to move PPVs for a long time AND Israel Adesanya has struggled to draw free viewers to TVs let alone paying ones. There's also the fact that if there's a purchasing decision to be made, I imagine fans would rather splurge on UFC 235 than this card. The very loaded UFC 225 card with CM Punk, Holm, Andrei Arlovski, Tai Tuiavasa, Whittaker/Romero and Covington/RDA did around 250K buys which is pretty blegh. So what's this one do? I feel like 200K is the bottom line and anything over what 225 did should be a success.
2- Of the ten fighters on this main card, only four of them have ever appeared on a PPV main card before. Remove the co-main and main event and half of the fighters on the main card last appeared on the Fight Pass prelims or FS1(2) prelims to the main card. Only Jim Crute and Sam Alvey appeared on main cards last. This is a very thin main card.
3- The key challenge in figuring out the co-main event is whether Whittaker's body can hold up over what figures to once again be another grueling 25 minute fight. Gastelum has only been rocked once (a big counter hook vs Rick Story after mentally checking out for a bit) and so he figures to be there for as long as the fight lasts. Gastelum hits hard for a dude going up to 185 lbs and when he gets going, he drowns people under a consistent offensive workrate. Like against Romero, Whittaker is going to be the fighter who has the technical advantages and he's the sort of fighter who can remain elusive while also being offensive and consistently pressuring. The problem is that Whittaker has broken hands, torn ACLs and been rocked consistently in his last two fights, both violent as all get out wars with Yoel Romero. That's nearly an hrs worth of fighting with Yoel Romero which physically and systematically destroys most normal people. At some point Whittaker is going to break down and I'm left wondering if Gastelum is going to be the lucky beneficiary to Romero's hard work.
4- So how likely it is that Adesanya vs Anderson Silva turns into one of those overly respectful deals where it's fifteen minutes of staring with an occasional flurry? Would Adesanya carry Silva out of respect?
5- Nadia Kassem is rather interesting and while her vs Montana De La Rosa is not in any way shape or form a main card PPV fight, it IS an interesting one. De La Rosa is a TUF contender turned solid flyweight who seems to have bouts of mental blockage at inopportune times BUT also packs good skills on the feet and in the grappling department. Kassem is really powerful, a big 125er (let's not forget she weighed 120 lbs in her strawweight debut) and comes from a market that the UFC visits 3-4 times a year with one PPV a year. She could be 2-3 wins away from us talking about her vs Valentina Shevchenko.
6- How many fights off of this show will you remember ONCE you remove the main and co-main event?
7- Kelvin Gastelum has managed to make things work pretty well with a basic 1-2 combination punctuated by a leg kick or two when he has to. He's a crisp boxer but people forget he's also a pretty damn good wrestler as well. I wonder if he tries to bring that back into the fold against Robert Whittaker just to shake things up over the course of the fight.
8- I wonder if Kai Kara France vs Raulian Pavia is exempt from Fight Of The Night honors on principle alone given that they're going to be gutting the division.
9- It's tough to remember it now but we started 2017 believing Lando Vannata could become one of the bigger future stars of the sport. At the very least, fresh off a highlight reel KO over Makdessi and with a FOTN vs Tony Ferguson in his backpocket, we figured he'd be a key factor in the division. Since that point? Lando is 0-2-2 with two draws that could theoretically have been losses. Vannata is a really fun fighter to watch but one who seems to fold under pressure and one who seems neither strong enough to wrestle successfully or complete enough to do the middle of the road stuff to make his high end flashy offense work. He flirted with free agency but the UFC brought him back. He gets a guy who rumor has it was signed primarily based off of his friendship with Anderson Silva. This is a gimme.
10- It's probably not going to be UFC quality but Shane Young vs Austin Arnett should be at the very least somewhat fun. I hope?
11- Rani Yahya finally gets his PPV debut after being in the UFC since the original WEC merger. Bless him.
12- Jim Crute, who is a very hittable guy, taking on Sam Alvey, who hits very hard, is a very risky way to give your Australian LHW prospect wunderkind some PPV exposure.
[6:29] Avancada vs. Darius & Finlay – Xplode (Yoel Lewis & Graham Bell Remix) [ARMIND] w/ The Break Boys – My House Is Your House (Acappella) [BUZZIN’ FLY]
[7:25] Armin van Buuren & W&W – If It Ain’t Dutch [MAINSTAGE]
[8:08] Armin van Buuren vs. The Ultimate Seduction – The Ultimate Seduction [ARMIND]
[8:58] Cygnus X & Ummet Ozcan vs. Rozalla – Feel Free Superstring (Ummet Ozcan Smashup) [EPIC/XTRAVAGANZA]
[13:58] The Killers vs. Exis – Brightside Survival (STANDERWICK Mashup) [ISLAND/WHO’S AFRAID OF 138]
[16:44] Tiësto – Lethal Industry (Jorn Van Deynhoven Remix) [MAGIK MUZIK]
[18:09] Avao vs. Armin Van Buuren & Andrew Rayel vs. Cosmic Gate – Activate vs. EIFORYA vs. Exploration Of Space (Armin van Buuren Mashup) [DATA/MAINSTAGE/REACHING ALTITUDE]
[20:33] Kay D. Smith & Marc Tall – Hoipolloi [HIGH CONTRAST]
[21:30] The Prodigy – No Good (Start The Dance) (MaRLo Remix) [XL]
[23:30] Push – Universal Nation [BONZAI]
Susana On Stage:
[24:55] Armin van Buuren ft. Susana – Shivers [ULTRA]
Armin Van Buuren – Tomorrowland 2019 15 Years Tribute (Weekend 2) (Boom, Belgium) Video Set
[6:29] Avancada vs. Darius & Finlay – Xplode (Yoel Lewis & Graham Bell Remix) [ARMIND] w/ The Break Boys – My House Is Your House (Acappella) [BUZZIN’ FLY]
[7:25] Armin van Buuren & W&W – If It Ain’t Dutch [MAINSTAGE]
[8:08] Armin van Buuren vs. The Ultimate Seduction – The Ultimate Seduction [ARMIND]
[8:58] Cygnus X & Ummet Ozcan vs. Rozalla – Feel Free Superstring (Ummet Ozcan Smashup) [EPIC/XTRAVAGANZA]
[13:58] The Killers vs. Exis – Brightside Survival (STANDERWICK Mashup) [ISLAND/WHO’S AFRAID OF 138]
[16:44] Tiësto – Lethal Industry (Jorn Van Deynhoven Remix) [MAGIK MUZIK]
[18:09] Avao vs. Armin Van Buuren & Andrew Rayel vs. Cosmic Gate – Activate vs. EIFORYA vs. Exploration Of Space (Armin van Buuren Mashup) [DATA/MAINSTAGE/REACHING ALTITUDE]
[20:33] Kay D. Smith & Marc Tall – Hoipolloi [HIGH CONTRAST]
[21:30] The Prodigy – No Good (Start The Dance) (MaRLo Remix) [XL]
[23:30] Push – Universal Nation [BONZAI]
Susana On Stage:
[24:55] Armin van Buuren ft. Susana – Shivers [ULTRA]
Armin Van Buuren – Tomorrowland 2019 15 Years Tribute (Weekend 2) (Boom, Belgium) Video Set
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