#macrovoices

[nrspeculator]

Update On All Things Nuclear

MacroVoices #389 Justin Huhn: Update On All Things Nuclear US Nuclear Renaissance Russia/Ukraine conflict and its impact on energy security Nuclear reactor restarts Frailties in renewables Future of nuclear – where is it headed? China’s role in the future of energy

[readthinkhunt]

Modern Monetary Theory MMT (Macrovoices)

The new think, becoming popular, coming from Sanders but also from some on Wall Street. Look to Macrotourist blog piece.

https://www.themacrotourist.com/posts/2019/01/23/mmt/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WS9nP-BKa3M

If deflation is at risk, fine to run deficits to heart's content.

"Modern Monetary Theory is a macroeconomic theory that contends that a country that operates with a sovereign currency has a degree of freedom in their fiscal and monetary policy which means government spending is never revenue constrained, but rather only limited by inflation."

- governments cannot go bankrupt as long as it doesn’t borrow in another currency

- it can issue more dollars through a simple keystroke in the ledger (much like the Fed did in the Great Financial Crisis)

- it can always make all payments

- the government can always afford to buy anything for sale

- the government can always afford to get people jobs and pay wages

- government only faces two different kinds of limitations; political restraint and full employment (which causes inflation)

The government can keep spending until they begin to crowd out the private sector and compete for resources.

But MMT is not socialism. Not by a long shot.

MMT’ers don’t necessarily believe in taxing the wealthy and redistributing it to the poor. Though they do believe the way conventional economics and politicians think about money is wrong.

Keynesians are still tied to the idea that we are bound by fiscal constraints whereas MMT’ers believe that the only real restraint is inflation.

MMT’ers would argue that by not spending now, we will be harming our productive capacity in the future.Ultimately it makes no sense to have economic capacity sitting fallow because of a self-imposed worry about paying back a debt that is denominated in an asset that only the government can create.

But, but, but… won’t that create inflation? Yup! Darn right it will, and that’s the point. MMT’ers believe that inflation is the only true constraint a government faces.

the average American is (and Canadian, Frenchman, Englishman, etc… for that matter). Monetary stimulus with fiscal austerity doesn’t do anything except make the rich richer.

MMT is novel, ambitious, and a little bit scary. I get it. But let me let you in on a little bit of a secret - young people aren’t afraid of trying something new. They know the system isn’t working and are desperately looking for an alternative. I think they found it in MMT…

Basically, it's the political will to create inflation. Prob from left, but could be Trump.

Could see inflation move from financial assets to real assets.

- Bad for bonds

- Great for real assets

[politicalbombshow]

David Rosenberg: "A Whole Bunch Of People Are Really, Really Wrong" About Inflation

David Rosenberg: “A Whole Bunch Of People Are Really, Really Wrong” About Inflation

With so much focus on the macro environment as stocks struggle to return to their all-time highs, MacroVoices invited seasoned Wall Street economist David Rosenberg, the chief economist and chief strategist of Rosenberg Research, on the show this week to discus the market’s topic du jour: inflation, and whether or not it will be “transitory,” like the Federal Reserve says. What followed was a…

[nouvelordremondialcc]

Un ex-chef de Thiel avertit que “la Chine constitue une menace légitime” pour le statut de réserve du dollar Dans l’épisode de MacroVoices (MV) de cette semaine, on retrouve Mike Green, gestionnaire de portefeuille chez Logica Capital, qu’il a rejoint en janvier 2020 après avoir été gestionnaire de portefeuille chez Thiel Capital, la société d’investissement…

[rebelcapitalist]

Originally Posted On February 25th, 2020 on Georgegammon.com - Patrick Ceresna (Big Picture Trading/Macrovoices) RCS Education Ep. 001 Patrick Ceresna reveals

[phungthaihy]

MacroVoices Spotlight #1 Niels Kaastrup-Larsen: Algorithmic Trading & Trend Following http://ehelpdesk.tk/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/logo-header.png [ad_1] Please visit our website www.mac... #accounting #algorithmictrading #cameraphone #cfa #daytrading #excel #finance #financefundamentals #financialanalysis #financialmanagement #financialmodeling #financialtrading #forex #free #investing #investmentbanking #optionstrading #personalfinance #sharing #stocktrading #technicalanalysis #upload #video #videophone

[mood-report]

Celestial Window Updated

Not much of a reaction from the December 26th New moon discussed in the previous post, just a couple of nice, tradeable pullbacks: 36 and 43 points respectively on the S&P.

The best part was the social mood cue, courtesy of Bloomberg.com.

Yet the action since doesn’t bolster the bearish interpretation, and if one views the S&P in the context of palladium -- the Big Risk-On Canary -- it’s still acting quite corrective.

The chart above depicts how things were looking Friday before the E-mini S&P 500 contract blew away the 3240 area to the upside, leaving behind a three-wave decline very similar to palladium.

The cautionary part is that markets can look corrective and still retrace huge amounts of prior gain, only to form a larger corrective pattern unimagined at the time, so it’s best not to be cavalier with price so extended.

The market has felt like it wants to catch its breath, so I am trading it that way, selling rallies until SPX 3245.06 gets exceeded, where I would reassess.

If it does, I will entertain this count:

Elsewhere, Raoul Pal is a supremely talented macro trader and analyst whom I highly recommend following, so imagine my angst when I saw him weighing in on the recent action in 10s breaking above the upper trend line:

By this same logic 10-year Treasury Note futures have been forecasting a “fall in growth dead ahead” since 1981.

Credit All-Star Jim Bianco of Bianco Research (who was recently interviewed on Macrovoices) says it way better:

“There are 13,000 wealth management firms in the United States that employ 440,000 wealth managers and they have 43 million accounts. The collective net worth of those 43 million accounts is 75% of the net worth of the United States.

“And the wealth manager says the solution for you is the 60/40 portfolio–60% equities, 40% bonds.

"Though the stock market is having a great year, we’re going to have record flows into bonds because everything is being driven by the 60/40 portfolio.”

“We created the entire modern wealth management business based on the idea that stocks and bonds can’t both go down together at the same time.”

We’re in a global credit-based monetary system. Fear the breakdown.

[chrisinmaryville]

Is There Really More Oil in The Golan Heights than in Saudi Arabia?

Is There Really More Oil in The Golan Heights than in Saudi Arabia?

By Martin Armstrong

Armstrong Economics

May 4, 2017

  Is There Really More Oil in The Golan Heights than in Saudi Arabia?

    QUESTION:Mr. Armstrong I live in Israel and today I listened to your podcast with Macrovoices. At some point you mentioned that there is more oil in Golan heights than in Saudi Arabia -and this oil belongs to genie energy. Is it true? How can it be that nobody knew…

[centralmarket]

「商品大王」羅傑斯：好多人將破產

淡友繼續乘勝追擊。經常唱淡美元嘅億萬富翁兼「商品大王」羅傑斯（Jim Rogers），最近接受MacroVoices採訪時，再次開口唱淡⋯

熟識羅傑斯嘅都知道，佢並非盲目唱淡之輩，09年當全世界都對美元走勢悲觀嘅時候，作為「美元大淡友」嘅佢，竟然掉轉槍頭入貨，當時佢話：

「美元下跌，所有人都對美元悲觀，包括我。但經驗告訴我，當所有人對某項資產，無論股票、債券非常悲觀時，就會出現一些反彈。」

今次羅傑斯���認為：

「我哋即將經歷一​​場一生人都未見過嘅經濟災難，好多人將會傾家蕩產，大家應該未雨綢謬。」

（圖片：羅傑斯提到2008年，150年歷史嘅雷曼兄弟破產了，但未��係空前危機。）

點解會有災難呢？一係特朗普，二係強美元。

佢認為，特朗普一定會打貿易戰，事實上政府高層中至少已有三位官員支持；一打貿易戰，根據歷史經驗將帶來好多問題，包括引發戰爭，此外，美元指數會持續走高，甚至會升到去美元泡沫爆破嘅地步：

「因為人們終將意識到強勢美元將引發全球經濟問題，而現在強勢美元正在損害美國經濟。」

今年1月，羅傑斯���受marketwatch採訪時話，美元於今明兩年都將會保持升勢，建議投資者增持美元，揚言自己會盡沽股票。

羅傑斯相當憂慮，並提醒大家，之前大家見到牛市，好消息接住好消息，令大家覺得牛市可以好耐，但其實進入熊市時你就會知道，壞消息都係會好似滾雪球咁接踵而來。

似乎羅傑斯係希望，投資者可以睇通呢一點，唔好畀現象局限，沉醉於「牛市」之中。

（訪問原聲）

===============

財經精選資訊tumblr網站「中環街市」 /臉書粉絲頁

[nrspeculator]

Global Food Crisis Update

MacroVoices #381 Leigh Goehring

[readthinkhunt]

Grant Williams on Macrovoices

- Erik thinks Powell dovish means equities and gold go higher, USD at risk.

- Grant doesn't think impetus is there for a new equities high. China slow etc. Only reason is Fed policy or short squeeze, but unlikely. Path of least residence lower.

- Bonds. Rao and Lacy Hunt think yields lower (Gunlich and Brigden take other view due to inflation). Both could be right...inflation could be building during softening. So safety first (Treasuries up), then US finances start to matter.

- Whole world could become Japanese, slow growth etc. China slow, others not picking up slack.

- Australia on the brink. Might have housing, China and recession at same time.

Europe

- Social conflict; if Macron goes, Europe goes.

- Failure if EU means own birders and currencies. EUR would go first. E.g. Italy goes back to lira, devalue and pay back debt in lira.

- Economies are strained, recession near. This will change attitudes.

- If Britain or Italy go out and are OK, then others would leave.

- Prob EUR is lead indicator. Bending, might break.

Gold

- October 11 lost correlation with Yuan. What? Both gold and USD? Grant has no idea.

- Gold's day in the sun is when protects wealth i.e. goes down a lot less than S&P giving buying power.

- Grant thinks next move in USD down. Starting to see that now. Good for gold, yes, but might be other factors - populism, unrest, failing markets, US finances.

- When really unwinds, won't want paper, but will instead only care about physical.

- 5-10% of wealth as insurance policy.

- Can exchange for houses and equities in meltdown.

- Look for 100% elsewhere, not in gold.

USD

- QT bullish USD say Erik. Sure, but damage so severe if pans out that QT would be stopped. In no one's interest for USD to go too much higher. Powell has backed down from QT on autopilot claim.

[politicalbombshow]

Former Thiel Macro Head Warns "China Is A Legitimate Threat" To Dollar's Reserve Status

Former Thiel Macro Head Warns “China Is A Legitimate Threat” To Dollar’s Reserve Status

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Featured in this week’s episode of MacroVoices is Mike Green, portfolio manager at Logica Capital, which he joined in January 2020 after serving as portfolio manager for Thiel Capital, the investment firm that manages the Peter Thiel’s private equity, which is currently led by managing director Eric Weinstein.

Fresh off an appearance with Grant Williams and Bill Fleckenstein in a series…

[megaalexmark]

MacroVoices, Jesse Felder: How Long Can Stock Market Mania Continue?

https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/macrovoices-jesse-felder-how-long-can-stock-market-mania-continue/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=tumblr

[iampjr]

RT @chigrl: This is EXACTLY what Charlie from Nomura and Jeff from Alhambra warned us about ...the curve would normalize and the Fed will think everything has been fixed ...this aint the first rodeo see @realvision and @MacroVoices interviews with both of these guys https://t.co/spEnyewKQg

RT @chigrl: This is EXACTLY what Charlie from Nomura and Jeff from Alhambra warned us about …the curve would normalize and the Fed will think everything has been fixed …this aint the first rodeo see @realvision and @MacroVoices interviews with both of these guys https://t.co/spEnyewKQg

This is EXACTLY what Charlie from Nomura and Jeff from Alhambra warned us about …the curve would normalize and the Fed will think everything has been fixed …this aint the first rodeo see @realvision and @MacroVoices interviews with both of these guys https://t.co/spEnyewKQg

— 𝕮𝖍𝖎 🛢️ (@chigrl) November 26, 2019

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js from Twitter https://twitter.com/patrickrooney

[rebelcapitalist]

Originally Posted On March 12th, 2020 on Georgegammon.com - Patrick Ceresna (Big Picture Trading/Macrovoices): RCS Education Ep. 003! Options Trading Round 3