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Oscar predictions

The 88th Academy Awards is all set and is going to be one of the most spectacular events of the decade as there is strong point for a certain movie to make history. I am looking forward more to the red carpet event this season than the actual awards as I think there is going to be a monopoly. Of the available 24 categories, I don’t have enough knowledge in predicting 3, so here’s my official 21.

·         Best Documentary (feature): O.J. Made in America (99%). Despite the length, it is going to be one documentary which all the Americans would be proud of. It also has the backing of winning the globe. 13th and ‘I am not an your negro’  would have competed against each other if not for this masterpiece.

·         Best foreign language film: Toni Erdmann (98%). Asghar Farhadi, the director of Salesman (Persian), boycotted the Oscars as a result of the Trump immigration ban and that might win few soft votes, but Toni Erdmann is the favorite.

·         Best Animated movie: This is one category which I feel 2 movies should share an award this year as I simply loved both of them and also feel both of ‘em deserving. I would pick Kubo and Two Strings (51%) over Zootopia (49%).

·         Best Sound Mixing: La La Land (89%), Arrival (11%).

·         Best Sound Editing: hacksaw ridge (65%), Arrival (25%), La La Land (10%).

·         Best Original Score: La La Land (99%).

·         Best Original Song: La La Land (City of Stars) (80%), (Audition) 20%. There is a battle within for the Best Song, and City of Stars is undoubtedly the favorite, and the Academy also usually prefers the favorite. But I liked Audition so much that my heart wants it to win. There was a similar scenario for Slumdog Millionarire where I wanted Mia to win for O Saaya, but it was the favorite Jai ho that eventually won. Digging a little deeper, the problem with one movie being nominated for 2 songs is that there is a high likelihood for a split. Moana could be the beneficiary in that event.

·         Best Makeup, hairstyling: Suicide Squad (60%), Star Trek (40%).

·         Best Costume: Jackie (60%), Fantastic Beasts (40%). There could be a little political influence in this category which ensures Jackie wins at least one Oscar, not that it does not deserve it. Fantastic Beasts won at the BAFTAs, but that could be because it’s a Brit movie.

·         Best Visual Effects: Jungle Book (98%). Such a brilliant movie would deserve at least one Oscar and what better than Visual Effects.

·         Best Production Design: La La Land (70%), Fanstastic Beasts (30%). Fantastic Beasts won the BAFTA, but then again it was a Brit movie. Arrival is yet another movie giving a competition in this category, but there are some scenes in La La Land, that blend so beautifully with the narrative and deserve a pat in the category, especially since we are talking about La La Land sweeping.

·         Best Editing: La La Land (80%), Arrival (20%). It’s a common practice for the Best Picture to win Best Editing, and that’s one small reason I would go with La La Land for both categories.

·         Best Cinematography: La La Land (80%), hacksaw ridge (20%). La La Land has the BAFTA backing and the jury seems to be favoring the movie, so unless the Academy decides to go for diversity, La La Land is favorite.

·         Best Screenplay (Adapted): Moonlight (90%), Lion (10%). Moonlight would have won both Best Picture and Direction if not for La La Land, and that’s a reason simple enough for it to be the frontrunner here.

·         Best Screenplay (original): La La Land (66%), Manchester By the Sea (33%). This could very well be my toughest prediction alongwith Best Animated Movie. I stick to La La Land to favor the sweep although I like other good movies not going empty-handed.

·         Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis (Fences)(99.9%). Finally, after a few snubs, we are going to see Viola Davis walking away with and Oscar and that’s one surest thing on this year’s ceremony.

·         Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)(98%). If it’s not him, there is going to be another discussion on the politics and the reasoning behind some of the strangest decisions.

·         Best Actress: Emma Stone(90%), Isabelle Huppert (10%). Stone has all the awards in her kitty and it’s going to be her first Oscar. So I see this as another straightforward choice. I like Isabelle there for the subtlety in her performance and a non-hollywood movie winning it. Wouldn’t it be ironical for Mia who has been striving to make her presence felt in La La Land not actually winning the Oscar? To me, the character written by the script-writers has an award-winning potential and Stone added that extra bit to it in ‘Audition’. So, sorry Isabelle. Your subdued emotions might just pave way for the most favored person, unless again the Academy goe after the social and moral aspects.

·         Best Actor: Denzel Washington (60%), Casey Affleck (40%). This is one award where Casey might lose out owing to his offscreen performances and that would be a shame, for he has been an absolute favorite up until Screen Actor’s guild.

·         Best Director: Damien Chazelle (85%), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight) (10%), Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea) (5%). This could be one award that Damien deserves even more since he missed out for Whiplash. It would be good to see a 32-year old winning the Best Director award. Sam Mendes won an Oscar for American Beauty at 34. Also, if you look at recent history, the Academy favored a more technically true director be it for Birman/Revenant or gravity.

·         Best Picture: La La Land (80%), Moonlight (20%). La La Land is a jury favorite, but Moonlight could very well be the Spotlight this year. But if I may ask, shouldn’t Hollywood love Hollywood? Or, is that very sentiment going to work against the film, and the Academy chooses to go with more of a social movie?

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soul mate  

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La La Land landslide

La La Land has been in the news ever since its release but it started grabbing more eyeballs after its record-equaling 14 nominations at the Academy. Now, the first question that everybody asks is ‘Is the movies really worth 14 nominations or is it that it is just good enough to be in the top 5 in in those categories’?

Undoubtedly, La La Land is a great movie. Imdb public rate it at 8.5, tomatometer and metacriritic rate it at 93. It’s a musical, the theme is universal, it has the movie industry in the backdrop, and a dying musical form as its crux. Performances are amazing and it’s technically sound in all departments. So yes, there is absolutely no surprise that it has those many nominations. In fact, one should think why not more.

And, that brings us to a dissection of the various Oscar categories.  There are about 24 categories of which La La Land is qualified to be in 17. Best song category is one where technically, a movie could be nominated 5 times, but as the most a movie ever got nominated in that category is 3, it’s not bad that La La Land received 2 nominations. So the Math ends up with 13 out of 17 categories, and which are those four cursed categories where it could make the cut. It’s not a Sci-fi or action or fantasy kind of a movie, so there is no scope for visual effects, and the entire movie is centered around the lead pair, so there is no scope for supporting actor/actress. And since it’s a natural movie about everyday people, there is also no scope for hairstyling. So there is absolutely no way the makers should feel bad on missing out on the coveted 15th nomination, although, they would have loved another nomination for a song.

Speaking of 15, La La Land becomes the 15th movie to receive 12 or more nominations, of which only 5 have been before ‘Forrest gump’. Out of those 15, only Titanic won more than 8 Oscars, the benchmark , IMO to be called an Oscar blockbuster, as only 6 other movies are in that elite list almost 88 years of its history, the last one being Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, almost 15 years ago. And this year, La La Land IS going to join that elite list.

Coming down to the actual categories in which La La Land has been nominated, it’s the big four Best Picture, Direction, Actor and Actress, along with screenplay (original); original score, song, sound editing and sound mixing (the must for a good musical); the top three technical pillars: Cinematography, Editing, Production design, and a bonus for Costumes.

Road to Oscar blockbuster:

You could have followed La La Land right from its inception and be an outright supporter for it to be an Oscar blockbuster, or watch it after it has received 14 nominations, and argue ‘what is so great about this movie to get a legendary status’?, or just be a neutral follower of the Awards where you sit back and say ‘ Let the most deserved win’. In all these case, you would agree that La La Land is absolutely sure of winning 4 awards: Best Original Score, song, one of Sound Editing or Mixing and Best director. The other ones it is almost certain to win is Best Actress and Picture in that order. We need at least 3 of remaining seven and that’s where it would get tricky.

Coming from reverse as to looking at the likelihood of which nominations won’t be converted to wins, one song definitely has to miss out and although not mathematically Ryan gosling also can be eliminated. Almost in the same tone, Costume design would go to either Jackie or Fantastic Beasts in that order of likelihood.  With tough competition from the likes of hacksaw ridge and Arrival, one sound category (mostly editing) can also lose out.

That leaves us with at least 3 required of the four remaining categories of Cinematography, Editing, Production Design and Screenplay. These are the ones that are going to make or break at the Oscars. A die-hard La La Land fan is going to go with all four, a realist sitting would say 3 with Screenplay being the category lost to Manchester by the Sea, and a hater would definitely like 2 of Cinematography, editing and production design to go to the closest rivals in respective categories: Arrival for cinematography, hacksaw ridge for editing, and Fantastic Beasts for production design. And that, if were to turn true would be a disaster for the movie earning it only 7.

In short, the movie hater would agree it would win 7, a neutral cinema-fan would say 8, which I personally think is the least the movie should win, a La La wisher would say 9 making it an Oscar blockbuster, which I think the movie deserves, a fan would say 10 and it would be a sheer disappointment for the backers of the movie if it did not win 10, and I really really hope it does not win 11 as it would join the top Oscar-winner classics like Titanic, Return of the King and Ben hur. I personally don’t feel this movie deserves to be in that list, although, if you take out the almost certain ones of not winning categories, it stands a chance of winning 11.

1.       11 wins (< 3%): Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actress, Score, Song, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing.

2.       10 wins (3-9%): Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actress, Score, Song, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Sound Mixing.

3.       9 wins(10-51%): Picture, Director,  Actress, Score, Song, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Sound Mixing.

4.       8 wins (52-88%): Picture, Director, Actress, Score, Song, Cinematography, Editing, Sound Mixing.

5.       7 wins(89-96%):  Picture, Director, Actress, Score, Song, Editing, Sound Mixing.

6.       6 wins (97%): Picture, Director, Actress, Score, Song, Sound Mixing.

7.       5 wins: (98%): Director, Actress, Score, Song, Sound Mixing.

8.       4 wins: (99%): Director, Score, Song

9.       2 wins: (100%): Score, Song.

Percentage by category with closest rival:

1.       Song:  99.9%, Moana

2.       Score: 99%, Lion

3.       Director: 98%, Manchester by the Sea.

4.       Actress:  96%, Elle

5.       Sound Mixing: 89%, Arrival

6.       Cinematography: 84%, hacksaw ridge

7.       Editing: 80%, Arrival

8.       Picture:  77%, Moonlight

9.       Production Design: 70%, Fantastic Beasts

10.   Screenplay: 66%, Manchester by the Sea.

11.   Sound Editing: 33%, hacksaw ridge

12.   Costume: 25%, Jackie

13.   Actor: 0.1%, (Manchester by the Sea, Fences)

Bottomline: La La Land, being a musical, and only the first original musical after gigi to win Best picture at the Oscars, if it does, is a frontrunner to becoming an Oscar blockbuster. It would be an ideal tribute to gigi if it wins exactly 9, but it truly has a potential to win 10 and join WestSide Story in becoming the only second movie to win 10 Oscars and an all-time fifth in the wins.

P.S: There is a battle within for the Best Song, and City of Stars is undoubtedly the favorite, and the Academy also usually prefers the favorite. But I liked Audition so much that my heart wants it to win. There was a similar scenario for Slumdog Millionarire where I wanted Mia to win for O Saaya, but it was the favorite Jai ho that eventually won.