#myanmar to import russian oil

[shamelessislamreligionhorse]

True worship can end the cycle of birth and death.

Take refuge in Spiritual leader Saint Rampal Ji Maharaj to attain salvation, eternal peace and happiness.

[italonews22-blog]

Beneficiaries of Western sanctions and new horizons at the  SPIEF. John Perkins.

The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum has long been known for the variety of venues where hundreds of agreements and investment contracts are concluded. But this year it also appears to be a great launching pad into a new reality. Many participants get the opportunity to become pioneers in mastering those economic niches that are being liberated in the conditions of rapidly changing geopolitical and economic configurations.

Andrei Belousov, First Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Government, notes: “This year's SPIEF is special - when the first shock of sanctions has passed and there is a period of comprehension of the reality in which Russia, the entire global community and the whole world is. Tectonic shifts in the structure of the world have begun, but where this is going is a big question”.

Probably the answer to this question (Quo vadis?), the direction of the economic vector depends strongly on the broad geography of the SPIEF participants. First, they demonstrate their willingness to be independent players rather than pawns in someone else's game. Second, they are already creating a future force field for a serious game and serious intentions.

More than 17,000 people participated in the forum (3,000 more participants than in 2022) from 130 countries.

The largest delegations were from the UAE (200 people), China (147), India (58), Myanmar (50), Kazakhstan (40), Cuba (39), and the United States (27).

The opportunities during SPIEF are of interest not only to Russia's traditional friends, allies, and partners. The forum was also attended by 150 companies from 25 unfriendly countries.

The SPIEF business program was extremely rich and interesting, including from the point of view of the future. It is noteworthy that against the backdrop of today's global problems, many delegations at the forum demonstrated a focus on emerging prospects, and thus confidence in the future.

This was, for example, the tone of the business dialogue at the Russia-Brazil Council meeting on the first day of the forum. Representatives of business and government agencies discussed cooperation in various spheres, including the agro-industrial complex, pharmaceuticals, energy, and the banking sector.

Economic cooperation between the two countries is developing dynamically. Since 2010, Brazil has been Russia's number one trading partner in Latin America. And 2022, abundant in sanctions against Russia and new challenges for the whole world community, demonstrated the strength of this strategic partnership. The indicators of the Russian-Brazilian trade turnover grew by 13% last year.

Participants of the business dialogue stated that at the moment there are large market niches for both Russian exports and Russian imports. Pavel Kalmychek, director of the bilateral cooperation development department of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, said: “Today we see that the bilateral track has real prospects for increasing trade turnover in the chemical industry, peaceful use of nuclear energy, space technology, energy, oil and gas sphere, rail transport, and pharmaceutical”.

There is a huge potential of the chemical industry. By the end of 2022 Russian companies-exporters of mineral fertilizers delivered to Brazilian partners almost 7 million tons of fertilizers worth over 4.5 billion dollars.

There are great prospects in terms of cooperation in high-tech areas, including space. There are already three GLONASS ground stations in Brazil, and this is not the limit. Negotiations are underway to increase the number of these stations.

Russia is interested in the participation of its energy companies in infrastructure projects, in port infrastructure projects, in projects that involve the modernization of hydro and thermal power plants in Brazil, in expanding cooperation with Brazilian companies in the oil and gas sector. Russian companies are also interested in supplying pharmaceutical products and vaccines to the Brazilian market.

Experts predict that if not this year, then next year the Russian-Brazilian trade turnover may reach 10 billion dollars.  

Director of the Latin American Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Alexander Shchetinin reminded that Brazil accounts for one third of Russia's trade with Latin America. He noted the importance of Russian exports of mineral fertilizers and imports of agricultural products from Brazil.

Russia is interested in further diversification of purchases by Brazilian agricultural producers. And the effectiveness of interaction in this area is a common contribution to global food security.

Head of the Moscow office of the Brazilian Export Development Agency Apex Brazil Almir Americo recalled that his country is the largest exporter of beef, poultry, one of the main exporters of pork. Brazil accounts for 80 percent of orange juice exports, 60-65 percent of sugar exports, and 30-40 percent of coffee exports in the international market. “Brazilian agriculture doesn't work without fertilizers”, notes Almir Americo. “Russia is the country that provides the fertilizer needed to feed the world”.

Almir Ameriko says that for more than 10 years Brazil was the main supplier of meat to Russia. Thanks to the development of the meat industry in Russia, these volumes have decreased. But there is still a need for technology in the meat industry. “We are ready to help in its development”, assured Apex Brasil, head of the Moscow office of the Brazilian Export Development Agency. “The meat industry is also genetics, drugs, vaccines, equipment, knowledge. Brazil is a country that has these technologies”.  

Almir Ameriko stresses that there are many problems between the desire to buy and the ability to supply. These include difficulties with product certification and bureaucratic delays. The representative counts on the understanding of the Russian government: in his opinion, flexibility, courage, acceleration in decision making and solidarity are required in this matter.

"We are ready to support your market in the face of sanctions”, Almir Ameriko assures. “Brazil is also interested in Russia as one of the main suppliers of medical and dental equipmen”.

Andrei Guriev, president of the Russian Association of Fertilizer Producers (RAFP), believes that the current situation with the sanctions against Russia and Russian business prompts to look for new alternatives. "Perhaps this will be some kind of breakthrough for the development of Russian-Brazilian business relations," A. Guryev suggested..

Participants of the business dialogue reminded that it is Brazil that will take over the G20 presidency from India. There are certain hopes for this to solve some of the knotty problems, in particular in the agro-industrial complex. There is an understanding that it is necessary to prohibit the introduction of any sanctions against the export of agricultural products and mineral fertilizers.

The key message of this business dialogue was that Brazil and Russia are among the main actors in the food security of the world.

It is symbolic that it was at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum in 2006 that the BRICS, whose acronyms include Brazil and Russia, was founded.  

It is possible that in the near future the acronym BRICS may be supplemented with another letter. At the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, the president of Algeria, Abdelmajid Tebboun, announced his desire to join the BRICS.

While the collective West is preoccupied with the sanctions fight against Russia and, in fact, with the deconstruction of the former economic reality, Russia is successfully building relations with new partners and harmonizing ties with economic allies. For example, Algeria has traditionally been Russia's strategic partner in Africa: the history of their bilateral relations is more than sixty years old. In 2023, trade and economic turnover between Russia and Algeria increased by almost 74% compared to the same period last year. This is one of the many evidences of how healthy pragmatism and sensible, balanced approaches contribute to a comprehensive business partnership, despite the political agenda imposed by the West on the rest of the world.

The president of Algeria noted Russia's efforts to help poor countries most affected by the current global crises. According to Abdelmajid Tebboun, there is an undeclared cold economic war going on in the world. The Algerian president calls Vladimir Putin: “A friend of all mankind. One example of this friendship is the supply of Russian grain to Algeria”.

As noted above, the largest delegation at the forum was from the United Arab Emirates. The UAE is Russia's largest economic partner in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Over the past 5 years the trade turnover between Russia and the UAE has grown almost 5 times. In 2021, when trade turnover between Russia and the UAE increased by 64.34% to $ 5.4 billion, the United Arab Emirates ranked first among Russia's trade and economic partners from the Arab world. The UAE is also the leader among the Arab countries in terms of investments in the Russian economy.

Promising areas of cooperation between Russia and the UAE include: space technology; energy, including renewable energy sources; medical technology; digital technology; and the agro-industrial complex. After 2022, the mutual interest of the two countries in cooperation has not changed. For example, in February 2023, Yuri Borisov, director general of the state corporation Roscosmos, visited the UAE to discuss the prospects for cooperation in the space sphere.

During the thematic session at SPIEF it was said that the economic system of the Emirates allows choosing the most appropriate preferential regimes for Russian companies.

Khalid Al Marzouki, vice-president of Khalifa Economic Zone Abu Dhabi (KEZAD) said: "We have long and effectively developed business relations with Russia, Russian companies. Bilateral investments from Emirates to Russia and back are going on actively. What can we say about our industrial cluster? At KEZAD and at the Port of Abu Dhabi it is very important to provide comprehensive solutions for business projects and support the Russian business community. Over the last decade, we have created a whole conglomerate of Russian companies at the Port of Abu Dhabi. We promote their products in the local market and help companies that are located in our zone to promote their products in the global market in a broader aspect.

KEZAD includes 11 ports, its own sea carrier and other infrastructure elements. All this contributes to effective cooperation with the Russian Federation. “We connect to the ecosystems of other countries, such as India," says Khalid Al Marzouki. - We also provide industrial preferences to carriers and create a Russian hub in order to support Russian companies, offer new business solutions, and promote business culture, language, and minimize the barriers that could arise between Russian suppliers and international markets”.

The Russia-China Business Dialogue discussed the prospects for relations with Russia's main trading partner (and China has always been such over the past 13 years). In 2022, the volume of Russian-Chinese trade increased by 29.3% in annual terms and set a historical record of $190.271 billion. Thus, we can once again see who becomes the beneficiary of cooperation after the collective West curtailed economic contacts with it. The whole period since the beginning of 2022 is marked by new points of growth in bilateral cooperation.

Chinese Ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui said that in the first five months of 2023, trade between the two countries increased by 40.7% over the same period last year to 93.8 billion dollars. The goal for this year is to reach $200 billion.

The organizers of the business dialogue report that Russian-Chinese trade and economic cooperation is steadily progressing and is expanding from traditional areas of energy, forestry and agricultural resources to many new industries, such as cars, household appliances, and food processing. There are trends of increasing grain exports to China via the "New Overland Grain Corridor Russia - China". Cooperation in information technologies, cross-border e-commerce, digital economy and biopharmaceuticals is also becoming more active..

Speaking to the forum participants, President Vladimir Putin said that Russia is open to cooperation with states that are willing to determine their own future. This fully applies to such a SPIEF participant as India, which maintains an independent political and economic course, guided by state interests rather than geopolitical considerations. The recent global turmoil and the West's break with Russia have in no way prevented Russia's exports to India from growing fourfold (to $40 billion) in 2022).

The organizers of the Russia-India business dialogue note that the current volume of trade between the two countries is growing at an accelerated rate due to the rapid increase in supplies of Russian energy resources, fertilizers, iron, steel and other goods to India.

During the business dialogue, Mohit Singla, chairman of the Trade Promotion Council of India, came up with an initiative to develop motivational measures for businesses to reduce the trade imbalance. Namely: to introduce a lighter tax regime; to create a green customs corridor; to improve the system of contract manufacturing.

More than 900 agreements totaling 3 trillion 860 billion rubles were signed on the sidelines of the SPIEF, including 43 agreements with representatives of foreign companies. Two of them were with Italy and Spain. This is a kind of illustration to the statement of the Russian president, made during the SPIEF: “We never kicked anyone out of our market, out of our economy. On the contrary, we even offered them to weigh all the pros and cons and to think carefully about our Russian partners and the possible consequences of such a step. Each of our partners had the right to choose”.

The SPIEF demonstrated a wide range of areas of economic partnership, opening up new prospects for those participants who correctly exercised the right to choose and correctly interpreted the Russian proverb: “The throne is never vacant”.

[enchantressmagazine]

Myanmar to import Russian oil, military says

Myanmar to import Russian oil, military says

The Southeast Asian country has maintained friendly ties with Russia, even as both remain under a raft of sanctions from Western countries — Myanmar for a military coup that overthrew an elected government last year, and Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, which it calls a “special military operation.” Russia is seeking new customers for its energy in the region as its biggest export destination,…

[unbiasedph]

Myanmar to import Russian oil, military says

Myanmar to import Russian oil, military says

Military-ruled Myanmar plans to import Russian gasoline and fuel oil to ease supply concerns and rising prices, a junta spokesperson said, the latest developing country to do so amid a global energy crisis. Read Full News @ Inquirer

[sion5]

Myanmar to import Russian oil, army says

[digitaltrand]

Myanmar to import Russian oil, military says

Myanmar to import Russian oil, military says

OIL Military-ruled Myanmar plans to import Russian gasoline and fuel oil to ease supply concerns and rising prices, a junta spokesperson said, the latest developing country to do so amid a global energy crisis. The Southeast Asian country has maintained friendly ties with Russia, even as both remain under a raft of sanctions from Western countries – Myanmar for a military coup that overthrew an…

[danstory]

"The world will never be the same": Oleg Noginskyi spoke about new global trends

A great interview about the new world order

The head of the expert group of the Scientific Center for Eurasian Integration told how global trends are changing before our eyes.

Oleg Noginskyi, a permanent participant of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, head of the expert group of the Scientific Center for Eurasian Integration, told Ridus in an interview about new signals were sounded at the last SPIEF — and what awaits the world economy in the new realities.

— Oleg Vladimirovich, you regularly attend the SPIEF, and this year was no exception. Has the St. Petersburg forum become different this year? Can we say that SPIEF-2022 has been filled with new meanings, taking into account the current global crisis?

— I have been participating in the SPIEF since 1997. This year the forum was categorically different from all the others. First of all, it was distinguished, finally, by the absence of our "civilized" European-American partners at the event, of which there were usually quite a lot.

Accordingly, the whole agenda was aimed not at how we strive for a "civilized" world and try to become a part of it, but at the development of our own country, at the development of relations with those countries that show an absolutely friendly attitude towards the Russian Federation.

Russia at this forum turned its face to its partners from Asian and African countries, there were large delegations from Latin America, Cuba, Myanmar, Syria and Iran, who are interested in cooperation with the Russian Federation, and not in receiving any profits and dividends at Russia's expense.

— Does this mean that there has been a so-called "economic reversal" of Russia? Can we say that Russia is demonstrating a rejection of the policy of a unipolar world imposed by the United States?

— This year, four round tables were held, which were devoted to integration in the Eurasian space. Agreements were signed all day with both the Arab Emirates and ASEAN. At the same time, these tables were fully held by the Eurasian Economic Commission and the Minister for Integration and Macroeconomics Sergey Glazyev. There were a lot of events dedicated to the Eurasian theme and the development of relations between the Eurasian Union and other associations and countries.

— In which sectors of the economy could Russia find new meanings in cooperation with Middle Eastern and Central Asian countries?

— We have fruitful cooperation with these countries already. For example, today the People's Republic of China has become the most important buyer of oil in the Russian Federation. Our coal supply to China and India is growing. The supply of energy resources and food to these countries is growing. That is, Russia is beginning to completely switch to direct supplies, largely excluding the intermediary market.

Before that, the Russian Federation sold a fairly large number of products through exchanges and major global intermediaries, which are traditionally located in London. Today, a logical question arises: why do we sell metal to the same Latin America through London, which takes this margin, when we have the opportunity to supply it directly and pay in our national currency.

 This is another big issue that has been devoted quite a lot of time: forms of settlements without the use of a dollar or euro component. After recent events, we can clearly see that these currencies do not represent any legality and reliability.

— What is your forecast for the future of the global currency market? What should we expect?

— The world currency market will change in any case. Today, countries are switching to so-called regional currencies: there is an active transition to settlements, for example, the ruble-yuan, without using the dollar or euro. The issue of direct calculation of the ruble-rupee is already being considered. In fact, countries are starting to move away from settlements in dollars or euros, respectively, and from storage in these world currencies.

— Has Western sanctions pressure on Russia become a threat to the West itself?

— These processes are already manifested today. Major world players, the same countries of the Arab world, are beginning to think about making payments in other currencies and looking for another storage currency. They are well aware that at any moment their dollar accounts can be frozen, arrested and seized, simply because the United States wanted to.

— What are the dangers of attempts by Western countries to isolate Russia economically?

— The most striking picture is fuel prices in the USA and the European Union. Prices have doubled, heating prices in some countries have increased three to four times. At the same time, it did not bring any negative effect for Russia.

It is worth paying attention to Alexey Miller's speech at the SPIEF: he said very clearly that we began to sell less gas, but began to sell it much more expensive. The volume of supplies fell by 10%, and the prices of supplies increased much more. In short, we are not offended. In fact, they created problems for themselves.

But something else is surprising. It is no secret that the United States and the United Kingdom are the initiator of anti-Russian sanctions. But the main problems fall on the European Union. And the EU's logic in this situation is amazing: the US forces the European Union to buy expensive shale gas from the States, instead of buying cheap gas from others. And if the American government can be easily understood — it cares about its producers, about its country, about revenues for its companies, then it is impossible to understand the logic of European countries in this case.

— Experts of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations predict that in 2023 the world is expecting a food crisis, in which the number of hungry people may increase by 13.7 million people. Are these the consequences of Western sanctions policy or the conjuncture of world markets?

— Under the sanctions policy of the West, the supply of fertilizers to the European Union was frozen. At the same time, the United States lifted the restriction on the supply of fertilizers necessary for American farmers. This is again a policy of double standards: on the one hand, they demand that the EU must impose these sanctions, and on the other hand, they leave the possibility of purchasing fertilizers for their farmers. All this already suggests that the harvest volumes will be reduced.

The sanctions imposed against the Russian Federation on the supply of food to the world market will not bring any harm to Russia. Because there are wonderful buyers in the form of China and India — and this is almost half of the world's population. So there will be no special problem for the Russian Federation.

At the same time, the countries that supported the sanctions will not be able to export their products: they will be forced to consume all the manufactured products. In addition, European livestock enterprises faced the risks of lack of feed, given that the bulk of feed and raw materials for them were supplied from Ukraine. What they will do with this problem is a big question.

In fact, the world market is being completely rebuilt — from globalization to regionalization and local tasks.

 The most striking example here is Hungary, which, having signed an agreement with the Russian Federation on fairly cheap energy supplies, instantly banned the sale of energy carriers to other EU countries. Up to the prohibition of refueling cars from other states at their gas stations.

The position of regionalization is already very clearly visible today.

— How will attempts to isolate Russia affect the global economy?

— This will primarily affect the authors of the sanctions. Other countries are already beginning to abandon their currency, from close interaction with these countries, realizing the possible risks.

These countries are forced to consolidate around other major world powers — in this case, those with nuclear weapons. Please note: after the actions of the United States, North Korea and Iran immediately withdrew from all restrictions on nuclear programs and resumed production.

Everyone in the world has realized that there will be no democracy, no legality in the world if the United States or Great Britain does not need it.

— How could you formulate the main results of the last SPIEF?

— Attempts to hold the positions of the world policeman and the situation of the monopolar world only lead to the fact that there is a natural outflow of countries that disagree to be at the level of "second-class countries" subordinate to the world leader. Everything is moving towards the consolidation of these countries and the creation of their own associations, allowing them to resist outright lawlessness on the part of Western countries.

— Will this process become a global trend for the near future?

— The world will never be the same, it will definitely be different. And we will see exactly what it will be based on the results of a Special Military Operation in Ukraine.

[tradologieglobal]

Top 5 Pulses Importing Countries in the World

India, Turkey, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Egypt are five top pulse importing countries. Big chunk of India’s agri commodities imports comprises of lentils (pulses) and edible oil imports. India along with Pakistan and Turkey drive global pulses import business and 59% share of total global imports of pulses was shared by these three in 2020. 

India has lately tried to decrease its dependence on imported lentils but it has to cover some distance before it can decide to stop pulses imports. Leading exporters of lentils are Canada and Australia. In 2020 increase in lentils imports by Egypt was twofold.

India, largest importer of pulses

India still depends heavily on lentil imports. Despite all possible efforts by government, domestic production of pulses can’t match the pace of increase in lentils demand in India and india has to rely on Australia and Canada for its domestic lentils consumption. Production decline by 35% in Canada in 2021 compelled India to think about other suppliers like Russia and Kazakhstan. Shipments from Canada and Australia gets regularly delayed because of global container crisis, on the other hand 25-30 days transit time for Kazak and Russian consignments is far shorter compared to transit time for Canadian consignments. Apart from Kazakhstan and Russia, India has decided to import lentils (tur) from Myanmar and Malawi. Import of urad, tur and moong were moved from restricted to open category due to anticipated shortfall in domestic production. 10 to 12 percent of its pulses consumption is fulfilled by virtue of imports. Pulse importers can rely on online B2B procurement platform tradologie.com for online import of lentils.

·  Lentils import from Russia allowed

In 2021 government of India permitted masur imports from Russia in light of skyrocketing prices of masur in domestic market. This was done to reduce dependence of india on Canada and Australia for lentils imports and result was instant in the form of 2.5% decline in prices of imported masoor.

·  Import tariff on lentils reduced

As a boon to Australian farmers Indian government has reduced import duty of lentils to zero providing golden opportunity to them to get rid of their bumper harvest of lentils but tariff on chickpeas is still in place and is quite prohibitive. This tariff revision seems to be direct result of visit of Australian trade minister to India. This decision by India benefits Australia in another way, it reduces the need for prolonged storage of lentils and frees silos for other crops. This decision of Indian government has pleased Australian farmers but shocked Indian farmers as they were hoping to earn premium on their rabi lentils crop. Indian government is refuting allegations that reduction on tariff will affect Indian farmers adversely as India had to import lentils anyways because of domestic production shortfall compared to consumption.

·  India exports pulses too

India has been exporting pulses quite successfully and right now Indian pulses exporters are demanding cash subsidy to compensate farmers for loses on account of chickpea prices slipping below MSP and also giving fillip to pulses exports from India. Pulses traders can use tradologie.com next generation B2B procurement platform to export bulk pulses from India.              

[vinitblogs]

Let me take you in the past when , world grouping was on and countries had a choice to go either in the camp of United States or with USSR (now Russian Federation). In that time india was new born baby ,just cutted the thread from the womb of colonialism , opted out to choose the neutral way and to maintain their future sovereignty formed NAM (Non Aligned Movement) in 1961 ,in the leadership of Jawaharlal Nehru and know as the "Third World country". Target to a collective growth in the Indian Ocean Region.

However India was stronger than any of it's neighbouring countries and made their mind , that not to opt out to choose any camp , as by collective well being we have a way to grow as well. Though many new born out countries join this group and India started to ploy it's diplomacy on great note. No talking of bossy like behaviour , no opposition in their internal politics. Also started to provide financial assistance to it's weak neighbour countries in the form of their comfort level either with Line of credit (in which you've to pay back the loan only of that amount what you'd spent) and on loan basis with low interest rate , without threating their promise to remain sovereign. Due to India's friendly behaviour ,, neighbours started to come in close contact. Indian diplomacy started to see new horizon with good intentions and cooperation in the field of economic , military , socio-cultural level. "Roti Beti Ka Rishta" is one fine example of social relationship with Nepal. Provided assistance to Bhutan to plant hydroelectric power projects in Chukha , kurichu and Tala. Also promised to generate 10,000 MW electricity till the current year 2020. Provide $400 million to Bangladesh to buy the arms from India itself. Financial aid to Sri Lanka in 2004 at the time of Tsunami to restructure their diminished infrastructure. Open entry on the border line with Myanmar inside 16km in both nations. Seems everything going well , but what made everything wrong and what worked as coriolis force which circumvent against the soft power diplomacy of india. Gradually since 2015 , Nepal , Bangladesh , Sri Lanka shifted their pole toward CCP ( Communist China Party). Although China's expansionist theory not gonna favour India's neighbours ,still they move to China's lap. BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi Sectoral Trade and Economic Cooperation , SAARC ( South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) , BBIN (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal) initiative, india is member of all these grouping , still couldn't kept the pace with them. Recent news on Development of Chabahar Port ,again raise the finger on the diplomatic skills of india with their neighbouring countries . As Irani Government declared that , now they are going to complete solely the Chabahar project as India is delaying to provide the assistance and also in the cooperation in technology. India was also signed an MoU (Memotendum of Understanding ) to develop a railyay project from Iran to the Border line of Afghanistan, is now also in midddle of nowhere. India - Iran Relationship is not new , India is the 3rd biggest importer of crude oil from Iran almost 30% of India's total need. Iranian foreign ministry also said that ,when Iran signed out from the Nuclear Disarmament Treaty with America and America imposed economy sections on Iran , India choosed to stay neutral and silently went with America. If india ably developed it on time ,it would be a direct entrance in Afghanistan as India has a deep asset there.

[shamelessislamreligionhorse]

True worship can end the cycle of birth and death.

Take refuge in Spiritual leader Saint Rampal Ji Maharaj to attain salvation, eternal peace and happiness.

[mideastsoccer]

Trump’s Trade Wars: A New World Order?

By James M. Dorsey

US President Donald J. Trump may not like armed conflict, but he sure loves economic warfare, whether it is to impose his political will on countries, protect sectors of the U.S. economy, secure more preferential trade terms, or stop others from gaining technological advantage.

The list of countries subject to sanctions or import tariffs designed to force changes in either economic, military, or geopolitical policies is long and includes both U.S. allies and rivals. Since Trump assumed presidency in January 2017, he has sanctioned China, North Korea, Russia, Venezuela, Iran, the European Union, Myanmar, Syria and Cuba. In one of his first actions after entering the Oval Office, he pulled the United States out of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP). (3). He has also sought to undermine the World Trade Organization (WTO), a US-inspired pillar of global trade. (4)

Mr. Trump’s liberal use of sanctions amounts to more than a penchant for economic warfare in an effort to create trade terms more advantageous to the United States. Economic warfare is the president’s strategy to shape a new world order that is likely to be multi-polar. Almost three years into Trump’s administration, it is proving to be a strategy with unintended consequences. Trump is not the only leader to discover that the employment of trade, commerce, and investment as not only an economic; but also political tool can be a double-edged sword.

So is Chinese president Xi Jinping as he confronts mounting anti-Chinese sentiment in Eurasia and greater competition on China’s border in the Russian Far East. Both leaders are forced to respond to external shocks, like mounting tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran in the wake of recent brazen drone and missile attacks on the kingdom’s oil installations. These attacks have led to a temporary cut of Saudi oil production by half, and are likely to change trading patterns, particularly in energy, not only of China; but also, of multiple other Asian states, including Japan, South Korea and India.

Trump’s protectionist penchant for economic warfare, 15 months before next year’s US presidential election, that breaks with 85 years of U.S. trade and economic policy that emphasized free trade and open markets, has yet to produce a foreign policy success. China and Russia, determined to counter U.S. power, particularly in Asia, have forged ever-closer ties. Iran and North Korea have demonstrated the resilience to endure harsh sanctions. Nicholas Maduro retains his grip on Venezuela while Europe is increasingly exasperated with America and discussing ways of improving relations with Russia to counter China. (5)

Trump’s renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), renamed the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMC), weakened protections for investors in Mexico as well as government commitment to allow foreign companies to bid for procurement contracts. While building a review process to the Agreement, this policy has created a sense of instability. President Trump enhanced uncertainty by subsequently threatening to impose new tariffs on Mexico because he did not like the country’s handling of Central Asian asylum seekers. (6)

Former World Bank president, U.S. trade representative and deputy-secretary of state Robert B. Zoellick predicts that Trump is likely to continuously wage economic warfare and keep trade partners off balance. “He will not change. Trade…is a core issue for the president’s political base. He must keep it boiling,” Mr. Zoellick said in a Wall Street Journal Pp-Ed entitled “The Trade War’s Winners Don’t Include Us”. (7)

As a result, damage to U.S. credibility and ability to regulate the international political and economic order may outlast Trump’s sanctions and tariffs-driven policies. Countries like China and Russia are likely to expand trade relations with third countries, and shift supply chains at the expense of preferential U.S. access to markets. They may also defy U.S. secondary sanctions, which target third country companies and entities, which refuse to comply with, for example, sanctions against Iran, and initiate ways of undermining the global reserve function of the U.S. dollar.

U.S. losses are palatable. The TPP has lowered trade barriers for member countries (8) but not for the United States. The EU has gained preferential access to Japan (9) while China has retaliated with tariffs of 21.8 percent on U.S. products (10) and lowered them to 6.7 percent for others. (11) The U.S. Treasury has doled out billions of dollars agricultural exporters (12) who have lost significant market share in China that they will find difficult to recover. U.S. manufacturers are moving operations to third countries (13) to evade the impact of the U.S.-China trade war while foreign direct investment in the United States is dropping. (14) Chinese investment in the United States has plummeted in the last two years. (15) Meanwhile, India and the United States are erecting barriers of their own (16) that will negatively affect bilateral trade while negotiations with the EU are stalled. (17)

President Trump’s trade wars have reduced the United States’ ability to establish rules and standards that govern key sectors like medical services, finance, intellectual-property rights, data access and security; enable the fight against corruption and promote transparency; “This president disdains rules; he acts as if governments control purchases like in old-style mercantilism,” Mr. Zoellick said. “Trump thinks that trade policy at 3 o’clock in the morning,” added Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Saunders. (18)

Mr. Trump’s erratic approach towards policy-making and implementation implies bullying will do the job and vacillation between bluster and moderation has projected him as an unreliable and impossible negotiator. This approach showcases a sharp contrast to his self-styled portrayal of himself as the master of the ‘Art of the Deal’. At the risk of sparking the emergence of parallel economic worlds, one dominated by the United States, the other by China, President Trump assumes his trade war and efforts to block Chinese access to U.S. technology would sabotage President Xi Jinping’s ‘Made in China 2025’ program designed to make China commercially and industrially self-sufficient. Trump further sees his trade war as a way of halting China’s efforts to replace the U.S. as the world’s foremost, cutting-edge economy. Reporting on a recent visit by Mr. Xi to Henan Province, Communist Party newspaper reported the president had “urged the development of the real economy bolstered by manufacturing, with self-reliance as the basis of all endeavours.” (19)

Mr. Trump may be right in his identification of the threat that China poses to U.S. economic and geopolitical dominance. The problem is that his policy solution risks accelerating the process rather than pausing or reversing it. Rather than stimulating research and development needed to ensure an American lead, Trump seems to believe that undermining China’s abilities is the key. The threat of the demise of a global market and the rise of parallel markets appears to have reinforced Chinese determination to become self-reliant to the degree possible.

“A more competitive United States would be a stabilizing force,” said Ely Ratnert the executive vice president of the Center for a New American Security and former deputy national security adviser to Vice President Joe Biden, arguing that U.S. strategy should involve both engagement and containment. (20)

Differences between China’s response to U.S. sanctions on telecommunications equipment and systems maker ZTE Corporation that threatened to bring the company down and Huawei, another major Chinese telecom equipment manufacturer, suggest that President Xi has factored the emergence of parallel worlds into his thinking. Last year, he phoned President Trump to plead with him to lift a crippling seven-year ban on the acquisition of U.S. components by ZTE. (21) The ban, imposed in response to allegation of ZTE’s busting of sanctions against Iran and North Korea, effectively sounded the death knell for ZTE, which has a workforce of 75,000. Trump agreed to lift the ban in exchange for ZTE agreeing to pay a U.S. $1.3 billion fine, undertake sweeping management changes, and hire American compliance executives to monitor internally the company.

No such deal was available to Huawei, neither would President Xi be willing to accept another deal that he would have perceived as reminiscent of China’s historical humiliations at the hands of Western powers. Huawei has responded defiantly to U.S. sanctions, (22) the detention in Canada at the behest of the United States of its Chief Financial Officer, Meng Wanzhou, (23) daughter of the company’s founder, Ren Zhengfei, on charges of financial fraud, sanctions violations, obstruction of justice; and a global campaign to prevent companies from acquiring Huawei’s 5G technology. The reason was the company’s close ties to the military and security forces. (24) In line with what has been termed the decoupling of the U.S. and Chinese economies, Huawei introduced Harmony, its own operating system to rival Android; and make it less dependent on U.S. technology. (25)

In September 2019, the Trump administration took a further step towards decoupling with the proposed new rules, which would allow the United States to exert greater control over foreign investment, by broadening the government’s authority to block technology and real estate transactions. The rules would give the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, or CFIUS, greater power to stop foreign investment in areas the U.S. deems protected, a move that primarily aims to bar China from access to sensitive American technology and other valuable assets. Beyond technology, the rules would red flag investment in infrastructure, such as telecommunications, utilities and energy as well companies that collect sensitive personal data related to finance and health, particularly of individuals and/or federal employees involved in national security. Real estate acquisitions would be vetted on proximity to military installations, airports and ports. (26)

If President Trump has demonstrated his inclination to wage economic wars, his Chinese counterpart, President Xi, sees trade and foreign investment as a way of not only securing economic growth by imposing increasingly controversial commercial terms; but also, achieving China’s geopolitical goals and promoting its concept of an invasive surveillance state. With countries like Pakistan, Malaysia, Myanmar and Nepal questioning projects that fail to respond to local needs and fail to contribute to economic growth because they rely on Chinese labor and materials, China has conceded that it may have to make adjustments to a policy that by default rather than design could end up contributing to decoupling.

"It is normal and understandable that development focus can change at different stages in different countries, especially with changes in government. So China can also make some strategic adjustments when cooperating with these countries, but it is definitely not a reconsideration of the B&R (Belt and Road) initiative," Wang Jun, deputy director of the Department of Information at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges told the Global Times newspaper. (27)

Mr. Jun spoke as Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi, was confronted on a visit to Islamabad with Pakistani demand that China should refocus its U.S. $45 billion plus investment in the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the single largest country infrastructure investment related to the People’s Republic’s Belt and Road initiative, to emphasize manufacturing and poverty reduction projects. (28) The Pakistani demand amounted to a rejection of China’s approach that appeared to position Pakistan as a raw materials supplier for China, an export market for Chinese products and labour, and an experimental ground for the export of the surveillance state China is rolling out, particularly in its troubled north-western province of Xinjiang. (29)

Elsewhere in Asia, some countries were putting their money where their mouth was. Chinese commercial terms prompted Nepal, like Pakistan to withdraw from a Chinese-funded dam project. (30) Furthermore, protests against the forced resettlement of eight Nepali villages persuaded CWE Investment Corporation, a subsidiary of China Three Gorges, to cancel a 750MW hydropower project. (31)

In July, Malaysia restarted the China-linked East Coast Rail Link project after forcing China to agree to downsizing construction costs by a third. The rail project, led by China Communications Construction Co. and Malaysia Rail Link Sdn., was cancelled in 2018 by Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad after he balked at the U.S. $16 billion cost. (32) The rail scheme was one of several projects, including a natural gas pipeline, suspended or cancelled by Mr. Mahathir after taking office in May 2018. (33) Similarly, Myanmar forced China to scale back its Kyaukphyu deep-sea port project from U.S. $7.5 billion to 1.3 billion. (34)

Even China’s approach towards trade with Russia, its closest ally, has sparked anti-Chinese sentiment and raised questions of whether the current state of affairs is sustainable. Chinese investment in Russia is a fraction of China’s investment in other regions like sub-Saharan Africa or South America and less than China’s expanding stake in countries like Nigeria and Brazil. A Chinese-Russian agreement on economic cooperation in Siberia, Russia’s Far East and China’s Northeast for a period of nine years ending in 2018 has fallen far short of expectations.

The agreement identified 91 joint investment projects of which only 11 materialized. (35) Similarly, energy failed to live up to its billing. CEFC China Energy’s plan to acquire a 14 percent stake in Russia’s largest, and majority state-owned, oil company, Rosneft, never happened. Neither did an agreed U.S. $25 billion investment in Russia’s Power of Siberia gas pipeline. The pipeline’s export of 38 billion cubic metres of natural gas is but one source for China that in 2017 imported more than 90 billion cubic meters from Australia, Qatar, and Turkmenistan.

Russia scholar Leo Aaron charged that the lopsided nature of Chinese-Russian economic relations fits the definition of Karl Marx and Vladimir Lenin of colonial trade, in which one country becomes a raw material appendage of another. “China is Russia’s second-largest trading partner (after the EU) and Russia’s largest individual partner in both exports and imports, for China the Russian market is at best second-rate. Russia ranks tenth in Chinese exports and does not make it into the top ten in either imports or total trade,” Mr. Aaron said. He noted that three-quarters of Russia’s exports to China were raw materials as opposed to consumer good, electronics and machinery accounted for the bulk of Chinese sales to Russia. (36)

More ominously, China starting in Central Asia, a crucial region that borders on its strategic but troubled north-western province of Xinjiang, is making deployment of its intrusive surveillance systems a pre-condition for investment; and in some cases appears willing to supply the infrastructure at no cost as part of a Smart City project developed by Huawei for initial roll-out in former Soviet states. (37) Huawei says the system, which involves installing thousands of security cameras equipped with artificial intelligence and facial recognition technology in public places, has been exported to 160 cities worldwide.

Liu Jiaxing, head of Huawei’s representative office in Uzbekistan, disclosed China’s insistence on adopting its surveillance approach in an interview with an Uzbek news outlet. “Investors will only go where the situation is stable. In view of this, the implementation of the Safe City project is very important for Uzbekistan as it will help the country develop its investment potential,” Liu said. (38) With no transparent regulation and oversight that ensure Central Asians’ privacy rights, China is likely to have access to data collected by the Smart City technology. Kyrgyzstan’s interior minister said data, one collected, would be handled at no cost to the government by Chinese National Electronics Import and Export Corporation, or CEIEC; a company believed to be tied to the Chinese military whose technology is deployed in Xinjiang, China’s surveillance system laboratory. (39)

The Middle East may not be at the core of the trade wars and policies that appear to be reshaping world trade. However, harsh U.S. sanctions on Iran and opposition to them by China, Russia and Europe have enabled Saudi Arabia and Iran to put their stamp on them. Devastating attacks in September on two Saudi oil facilities, which were claimed by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen and blamed on Iran by the United States and Saudi Arabia, have prompted the kingdom’s major Asian customers to look at diversifying their supplies, which could force them to upgrade their ability to refine heavier grades of crude. “The key is to gradually get rid of heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil. There is a consistent risk to oil supply from Middle East countries. China has been diversifying its oil suppliers,” said Zhu Guangming, an analyst from the consultancy Sublime China Information. (40)

China’s diversification options are Russia, the United States and Iran. Russia may be China’s safest bet as long as the U.S. imposes sanctions on Iran while the U.S. is tricky given the trade war. Trading patterns in the immediate aftermath of the attacks in Saudi Araba of Unipec, the trading arm of Chinese oil giant Sinopec, highlight China’s dilemma. Unipec was rushing in early September to sell U.S. oil it had acquired as China imposed a five-percent tariff on imports of American oil. Two weeks later, it was chartering ships to import U.S. light crude to compensate for Saudi shortfalls. (41)

A careful reading of Saudi and U.S. responses to the Saudi attacks suggests subtle differences between the two governments. They mask several emerging fundamental issues that could have far-reaching consequences for the Gulf’s security architecture and energy export focus. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and President Trump explicitly pointed the finger at Iran as being directly responsible, (42) while Saudi Arabia stopped short of blaming the Islamic republic, saying that its preliminary findings showed that Iranian weapons had been used in the attack. (43) Iran has denied any involvement. (44)

Saudi Arabia’s initial reluctance to unambiguously blame Iran may have a lot to do with Trump’s America First-driven response to the attacks, which appeared to contradict the Carter Doctrine proclaimed in 1980 by President Jimmy Carter. The doctrine, a cornerstone of the Saudi-U.S. relationship, stated that the United States would use military force, if necessary, to defend its national interests in the Gulf.

Trump’s apparent weakening of the United States’ commitment to the defense of the Kingdom, encapsulates in the doctrine, risks fundamentally altering the relationship, already troubled by Saudi conduct of the more than four-year-long war in Yemen and last year’s killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.

Signalling a break with the Carter doctrine, Trump was quick to point out that the attacks were on Saudi Arabia, not on the United States; and suggested it was for the Saudis to respond. “I haven’t promised Saudis that. We have to sit down with the Saudis and work something out. That was an attack on Saudi Arabia, and that was not an attack on us. But we would certainly help them,” Mr. Trump said without identifying what kind of support the U.S. would be willing to provide. (45)

Despite blustering that the United States was “locked and loaded,” Trump insisted “we have a lot of options but I’m not looking at options right now.” Mr. Trump further called into question the nature of the U.S.-Saudi defense relationship by declaring that “If we decide to do something, they’ll be very much involved, and that includes payment. And they understand that fully.”

At the bottom line, the structure of global trade is by design or default in flux with potentially far-reaching conclusions for international relations as well as political systems in various countries. The escalating trade war between the United States and China risks a breakdown in global trade as the world’s two largest economies contemplate encouraging the emergence of trading environments that they would dominate. Add to that, the impact of Mr. Trump’s penchant for economic sanctions, that in the case of Iran, have sparked escalating tension between Saudi Arabia and the United States that could reshape security perspectives in the Gulf and could lead to alternative flows of energy to Asia’s largest importers. The possible decoupling of the Chinese and U.S. economies would make it easier for China to politically align some beneficiaries of China’s Belt and Road initiative by imposing its concept of a 21st-century Orwellian surveillance state on them.

Dr. James M. Dorsey is a senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, an adjunct senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute and co-director of the University of Wuerzburg’s Institute of Fan Culture

[theculturedmarxist]

Chinese President Xi Jinping will host the second Belt and Road Forum in April, with Russia’s Vladimir Putin and dozens of other heads of state in attendance. Now is a good time to look at the reality of Xi’s signature Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Announced in 2013 and enshrined in the Chinese Communist Party’s constitution in 2017, the initiative gets a lot of attention and hype. Some see a plot to challenge the liberal world order, a new Marshall Plan, or a scheme to enslave developing nations; others the world’s biggest development initiative and the New Silk Road.

What’s the reality? The Belt and Road constitutes a marginal increase in infrastructure development and improves Chinese access to supplies and markets, but the real action in infrastructure these days flows from private finance, not Chinese projects.

What the Belt and Road Means for China

China has grown its economy for the past 10 or more years by building infrastructure: roads, high-speed rail, ports. Many well-connected Chinese enterprises made huge money from these projects. As the infrastructure in China produces declining returns, the Belt and Road gives China’s infrastructure firms a way of going abroad. The big names at home — the Gezhouba Group, the China Railway Group, and the China Communications Construction Company, for example — become the big names in the Belt and Road, using government capital and projects abroad to fuel business growth. In the end, the Belt and Road is an outlet for too much investment capital and Chinese firms desperate to keep the economic engines of China revved up.

What about forging new routes to Europe and Southeast Asia? Yes, there will be new ways of getting from China’s manufacturing centers to Europe, but there as of yet there are not signs that these routes are either economically practical or viable. Rail from China to Europe is interesting, but not much has started to flow yet. Shipping still offers significant cost advantages: trans-shipment opportunities, cheaper unit costs, and easier coordination. Accordingly, major investments of the Belt and Road expand ports and terminals mainly for Chinese goods.

The Numbers Are Sketchy

China’s Ministry of Commerce says that outward investment flows for Belt and Road projects were about $15 billion per year over each of the last four years. Note that Chinese commentators often cite much larger numbers for the value of deals concluded — meaning that only a small portion of the announced projects come to fruition. Other agencies — China Eximbank and China Development Bank — also tout their contributions to Belt and Road but throw in everything from ports and dam financing to flying boats and LNG carriers. MERICS, the Berlin based institute specializing in China, says, “Five years down the road, China has invested more than 25 billion USD into BRI-related infrastructure projects.”

We’ll hear some huge numbers at the Belt and Road forum next month; best to take them with more than a grain of salt. So even if we give the Chinese sources some benefit of the doubt, a reasonable estimate of the flow would be $15 billion to $25 billion per year.

Private Funds Are Greater

Global infrastructure investment lags sorely behind the need. The World Bank estimates a shortfall at over $1.3 trillion per year for infrastructure in emerging economies. Countries want infrastructure and are happy to have a new road, rail line, port, or factory, often without reading the fine print or caring sufficiently about repayment terms. Stories of bribery are rampant. A growing number of countries –Myanmar, Malaysia, Nepal, and Pakistan, for example — have succeeded in forcing renegotiation or cancellation of particular Chinese projects. More and more leaders now pay closer attention to the terms of the deals.

While Chinese investment is important in some localities, it doesn’t change the overall picture for infrastructure. Private infrastructure investment, on the other hand, is the new big thing. The World Bank has set up a special department to facilitate private infrastructure investment and calculates an average of $109.8 billion a year of private infrastructure finance from 2013 to 2017 in emerging and developing countries (including China and all the major Belt and Road target countries). Wall Street firms like Blackstone and KKR as well as institutional investors are setting up infrastructure funds with tens of billions of dollars. Barron’s last fall identified 176 funds seeking $147 billion of capital. Indeed, it’s worth noting that when Jim Yong Kim left as head of the World Bank last month, he joined Global Infrastructure Partners, a firm managing $51 billion in infrastructure funds — a demonstration of bank robber Willie Sutton’s dictum: “because that’s where the money is.”

Identifying actual disbursements and total amounts is difficult, but when you add in local financing and projects around the world, much of the new money in infrastructure will come from the private sector. Indian infrastructure, for example, absorbs major investment from the private sector. India’s government identifies over $450 billion in over 3,000 public-private infrastructure projects. All in all, the private money adds up in India, in Southeast Asia, in China, in Belt and Road countries, and elsewhere in the developing world.

China constitutes part of the private investment trend, both as a recipient and an investor, but China by no means dominates global infrastructure.

What Belt and Road Is Not

Belt and Road has been compared to many things, most of them inaccurately. First, the “New Silk Road” — a poetic Chinese phrase. The old Silk Road moved goods from China to the Middle East, and some on from there to Europe; to this extent goods will indeed move from China to far off lands. But there the similarities end. Unlike the current incarnation, the Silk Road did not extend Chinese presence or traders into foreign places. Over the old Silk Road, goods moved from hand to hand: caravans went to the edge of China with Central Asia, where Sogdians and Turkic horse traders brought them to the Persian and Arab empires, from which Persians and Arabs sold them onward. Everyone along the way had a stake in the trade. Contrast this with China’s Belt and Road, largely focused on projects operated and built by Chinese firms with Chinese labor, with much of the money and profit going to Chinese firms and banks.

What about the “Chinese Marshall Plan”? It’s not that either: the Marshall Plan was financed through and for foreign partners. While U.S. contributions were recognized in most places, the operational side was local — even to the point that the French government, at times, refused to advertise projects as financed by the Americans. The Marshall Plan brought machinery, goods, and food to Europeans who rebuilt their own economies. Contrast that with the Belt and Road which normally involves Chinese firms and workers building projects in foreign lands and often does little to build local capacity and sustain development.

In fact, it’s debatable to what extent the Belt and Road is actually a new phenomenon. The Belt and Road largely involves a massive rebranding of existing projects to please the leader. For example, Gwadar, the port built in Pakistan from 2001 to 2007, became a centerpiece of Belt and Road with Xi Jinping’s 2013 announcement. As Chinese wages go up and the global middle class expands, Chinese and foreign firms operating in China have long been looking overseas for new middle-class markets and new workers. Today, any Chinese investment almost anywhere in the world becomes a star in the Belt and Road firmament. From shoe factories in Ethiopia to auto production in Hungary, whether begun under the earlier “Go Out Policy” of 1999 or after Xi’s 2013 announcement, everything gets tagged Belt and Road.

The Strategic Angle

Yes, there are elements of strategy in the Belt and Road, but more domestic development strategy than international. China’s infrastructure projects mainly focus on bringing raw materials to Chinese industry and moving Chinese goods to growing markets in Southeast Asia, Africa, and Europe. Some aspects provide strategic benefits that are interesting, but not game changers.

The major axis of infrastructure in South and Southeast Asia will give China routes through Myanmar and Pakistan, including pipelines for oil supplies and railways for goods and eventually tourists. The premium on Myanmar and Pakistan for Chinese planners comes from the fact that these routes avoid the Straits of Malacca, the tight bottleneck between Singapore and Indonesia which the U.S. Navy frequents and where the bulk of China’s oil and other supplies pass now. It is doubtful that a significant portion of this dependency can be shifted, but China seeks alternatives as it also seeks to establish its presence in the South China Sea.

Another strategic aspect involves Central Asia. In the “Great Game” of the 19th century, the Russian czar’s army and railroads pushed out residual Chinese influence as well as Western encroachments. Now, in the 21st century, Chinese traders, investors and infrastructure are returning to an area where they have been largely absent for over 100 years.

Still, U.S. and European governments and investors remain the primary source of global capital both public and private. A Western presence offers opportunities for developing countries to balance out the Chinese offers. While U.S. public money focuses more on humanitarian projects than infrastructure, the growing role of private finance provides this alternative. Indeed, U.S. and European firms and governments can help recipients of Chinese flows demand more transparency and better terms. As the Trump administration recognized in its underfunded Indo-Pacific Initiative, the Western alternatives at the very least strengthen the hand of developing nations in negotiating with China.

The Big Picture

China’s economic development and its accumulation of capital were bound to spill over eventually into the world economy. The Asian development model — import machines and inputs, build an export industry, and accumulate assets — has already been followed by others, including Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, who became overseas investors. Now that China has built a hefty bank balance and saturated its domestic infrastructure needs, why would China’s money managers leave their money in U.S. treasuries when they can lend it around the world to create Chinese profits and jobs? Just as with waves of U.S. and European investors in the second half of the 20th century, money goes into countries that supply raw materials and provide new markets. Many of these projects won’t pan out and some will go bust, but many others will take root. China, like its Western predecessors, now stands as a global player but not a dominant force.

Next month’s Belt and Road Forum will produce lots of big numbers and hoopla. Perhaps it will also provide some additional transparency and openings for local involvement. As we watch, we should all be skeptical of the reality and not tremble at the sound and fury of the occasion. The Belt and Road makes China a player, but not the biggest nor the only new player in the game of international finance.

Richard Boucher, who achieved the rank of Career Ambassador in the U.S. Foreign Service, is a long-time China hand and former spokesperson for the U.S. State Department.

[reportr]

Construction Chemicals Market 2021 Sales, Revenue, Gross Margin, Market Share by Top Companies 2027

Construction Chemicals Market – Market Overview

Construction chemicals are specialty chemicals used in various construction activities residential, non-residential and renovation. These chemicals enhances the overall performance of end products used in the building and construction. The construction chemicals can be broadly classified into concrete admixtures, waterproofing chemicals, flooring compounds, and adhesives & sealants among others.

As the name suggests, the market is highly dependent on the dynamics of construction industry across the globe. On a holistic, the emerging economies such as Asia Pacific and Middle East is expected to be the sweet spot for construction chemicals. For instance, India’s vision “Housing For All by 2022” initiatives is expected to boost the demand. Whereas, regained stability of housing market and increasing reconstruction activities in developed economies is expected to drive the demand.

The market consumption trends vary region to region, for instance, the economic downturn in 2008-09 in the U.S which had an adverse effect on the housing industry in the country witnessed sharp decline in the ceramic tile industry. However, the recent stats showing a positive outlook for housing market in the U.S for 2017-18 with low mortgage rates in the country beefing up new construction activities. Hence, a positive prospect for the ceramic tile players operating in the region. Since, the construction chemicals are majorly consumed in its close vicinity of production.

Construction chemicals are widely consumed among new residential and non-residential constructions along with the reconstruction and renovation activities. With the increasing population, urbanization, and industrialization in the emerging economies such as Asia Pacific and Middles East are stimulating the construction activities. These are some of the protuberant market compelling factors for construction chemicals.

Amidst the decline in oil prices in the GCC the construction activities in the region still remains as a strong indicator for economic growth in the region. The construction activities is expected to stimulate in the coming years with an overall capital spending in GCC estimated at USD 480 billion of which 65% will be towards infrastructure development. Accounting for the latter mentioned factors it is healthy to assume a pool of market opportunities for construction chemicals in the Middle East adding value to the global construction chemicals market as a whole.

Protuberant trend in the Construction Chemicals Market includes. Furthermore, government initiatives in the emerging economies for infrastructural developments is expected to stimulate the market for construction chemicals. For instance, government of India’s proposed spending in infrastructure accounting for 10% of the country’s GDP in its 12Th five-year plans will boost the demand for construction chemicals in the country.

Key Players:

BASF SE (Germany), Arkema SA (France), Ashland Inc. (U.S.), Fosroc International Limited (U.K.), Mapie S.p.A (Italy), Pidilite Industries Limited (India), RPM International Inc. (U.S.), Sika AG (Switzerland), The Dow Chemical Co.(U.S.), and W.R. Grace & Company (U.S.) among others.  are some of the prominent players at the forefront of competition in the Global Construction Chemicals Market and are profiled in MRFR Analysis.

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 Construction Chemicals Market – Competitive Analysis

The construction chemicals is a fragmented market, the competition is intense among the players operating in this market with increasing demand for construction chemicals players operating in the market wants to capture maximum share in the market. Some of the strategies adopted by the players operating in the market includes, capacity expansions, product launches and expanding geographical presence.

Industry/ Innovation/ Related News:

August, 2016 – BASF opened its first production plant in Sri Lanka for the production of standard and custom-made performance based construction chemicals. The plant was in line with company’s geographic expansion strategy to cater the increasing demand from customers in Sri Lanka

April, 2016-, BASF expanded its construction chemicals division in Russia. This expansion was in line with expanding the waterproofing chemicals portfolio for the Russian market.   

April, 2016-, In line with the rapid growth of construction industry in India, BASF launched three new constructions solutions in the India market. Low-viscosity concrete admixtures, waterproofing solutions and waterproofing solutions for parking structure. The solutions launched are cost-effective, durable thus minimising the resources used in construction and repairs. 

February, 2016- Sika AG, opened two construction chemicals plant in Southeast Asia addressing the increasing construction activities in the region. The plants are located in Myanmar and Cambodia. This expansion was in line with company’s strategy 2018, which involves penetration into new markets by opening new factories.

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MRFR team have supreme objective to provide the optimum quality market research and intelligence services to our clients. Our market research studies by products, services, technologies, applications, end users, and market players for global, regional, and country level market segments, enable our clients to see more, know more, and do more, which help to answer all their most important questions.

In order to stay updated with technology and work process of the industry, MRFR often plans & conducts meet with the industry experts and industrial visits for its research analyst members.

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[newstfionline]

Headlines

Russian, Iranian Foreign Ministers Discuss Syria (Reuters) Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke by telephone with his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif about preparations for a Russian-hosted Syrian People’s Congress, the Russian Foreign Ministry said on Friday in a statement.

Stricken Iranian Oil Tanker Still on Fire in Japan’s Economic Zone: Coast Guard (Reuters) A stricken Iranian oil tanker, which drifted into Japan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) earlier this week, was still in the area as of Friday afternoon and was still on fire, Japan’s Coast Guard said in a statement.

German Parties Pledge to Work With France to Strengthen Euro Zone (Reuters) German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) pledged on Friday after all-night talks to work closely with France to strengthen the euro zone, according to a 28-page policy blueprint seen by Reuters.

Japan to Curb Asylum Seekers’ Right to Work From Monday (Reuters) Japan will limit asylum seekers’ right to work from Monday, making changes to its refugee system that are likely to swell the numbers of those in detention centers, the justice ministry said, prompting refugee groups to flag humanitarian concerns.

Greek Metro Halted, Ships Docked in Protest Over Right to Strike (Reuters) The Athens subway came to a standstill on Friday as Greeks protested against new reforms that parliament is set to approve on Jan. 15 in return for bailout funds, including restrictions on the right to strike.

China’s Imports From North Korea Plummet in December, Lowest for Four Years (Reuters) China’s imports from North Korea plunged in December to their lowest level in dollar terms since at least the start of 2014, with trade curbed by U.N. sanctions aimed at persuading North Korea to abandon its ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programs.

India Sends Its 100th Satellite Into Space to Watch Borders (Reuters) India launched its 100th satellite on Friday as Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeks to project the country as a global low-cost provider of services in space.

Trump Cancels Britain Trip, Blames Obama for ‘Peanuts’ London Embassy Deal (Reuters) U.S. President Donald Trump cancelled a trip to London scheduled for next month to open a new embassy, blaming Barack Obama for selling off the old one for “peanuts” in a bad deal.

Turkey Tells Citizens to Reconsider Travelling to US (AP) Turkey has warned its citizens about traveling to the United States, in retaliation for a new U.S. travel advisory about Turkey.

3 Suspected Militants Killed in Bangladesh; 2 Forces Hurt (AP) Three suspected Islamist militants were killed inside a building after security forces cordoned it off and opened fire Friday in Bangladesh’s capital, officials said.

Heavy Snow Strands 430 People Overnight on Train in Japan (AP) About 430 people were stuck on a train overnight in Japan because of heavy snow that blanketed much of the country’s Japan Sea coast, a railway official said Friday.

Several Quakes Rattle Myanmar’s Largest City, No Damage Seen (AP) Several earthquakes caused some panic in Myanmar’s largest city early Friday, but no serious injuries or major damage has yet been reported.

[capclosures]

Different Bottle Caps & Closures

The closures are an important part of each bottle. Not only is the closure functional, they also provide the seal need to protect the quality of your product. They are also important design elements that can significantly affect the appearance of your bottle. There are many types of closures, such as: Glass bottle caps & closures, alcohol bottle caps, olive oil caps, aluminium snap caps, wine caps, liquor caps, Beverages caps, olive oil caps, lug caps, crown caps and so on. Specially designed closures, although more expensive, will help you separate the bottles and add value.

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[autodidact-adventures]

Culinary History (Part 24): History of Measuring

During Anglo-Saxon times, the Winchester measure was established in England (Winchester was the capital at the time). It was based on the Winchester bushel, which was 64lb (29kg) of wheat.  It was better to use wheat than flour, because the density varies less.  The Winchester measure was the volume that a Winchester bushel took up.  It was then subdivided down into:

bushel = 4 pecks

peck = 2 gallons

gallon = 4 quarts

quart = 4 pints

So, there were 128 pints in a bushel.  A pint is 473ml, and a bushel is 35.24 litres.

There is a old saying, “A pint's a pound the world around”.  A pint of wheat is actually half a pound (as there are 128 pints in a bushel, and a bushel of wheat is 64 pounds).  But a pint of water weighs a pound (i.e. twice as much as wheat).  Hence the saying.

The Winchester gallon was also called the corn gallon. And it wasn't the only type of volumetric measurement!  There was also the wine gallon (about 3.79 litres) and the ale gallon (about 4.63 litres).  The difference between them may have been because ale was drunk in larger volumes than wine.

The lack of standardization was a problem, both for customers and for the state, because it mucked around with the duty charged on goods.  In 1215, the Magna Carta tried to fix it: “Let there be one measure of wine throughout our whole realm; and one measure of ale; and one measure of corn.”  It didn't work.  From 1066 to the end of the 1600's, there were over twelve different gallon measurements, some for liquids and some for solids.

The wine gallon was also called the Queen Anne gallon (from the 1700′s).

In the 1790's, after the French Revolution, the French began to establish the metric system.  The metre was meant to be one ten-millionth of the Earth's meridian (an imaginary line between the North & South Poles), but it's actually a bit smaller, because of a miscalculation.

The French were now measuring everything in tens.  (There was even an attempt at a ten-day week, the décade). The new measures were laid out in a law of the 18th Germinal.  They would use litres, grams and metres, and throw out the old chaotic measurements.  This was to show how rational and scientific France now was.

In 1790, George Washington asked Thomas Jefferson (Secretary of State) to work out a plan for reforming weights and measures.  They already had decimal coinage.  But Congress couldn't agree on either of Jefferson's reform proposals, and for the next several decades they couldn't decide on a solution.

In 1824, the British Parliament voted to use a single imperial gallon, for both dry and liquid measurements.  This was defined as “the volume occupied by ten pounds of water at specified temperature and pressure”, which ended up as 277.42 cubic inches, or 4.55 litres. This was close to the old ale gallon (and bigger than the corn gallon).  The other measurements (peck, etc) were shuffled to fit.  Now the saying was:

A pint's a pound the world round

Except in Britain where

A pint of water's a pound and a quarter.

The imperial gallon was in place for the whole British Empire.

In 1836, America finally reformed their measurements (somewhat).  But they weren't going to follow Britain.  Instead, they used the old corn gallon for dry goods, and the old wine gallon for liquids.

Because of the two different systems, Britain and America have had problems with understanding each other's cookbooks.  In 1969, Britain officially adopted the metric system, and this just made things harder.  Nowadays, only America, Liberia and Myanmar still use the imperial system.

Measurements of size, as well as of volume, were non-standardized for a very long time.  Since the middle ages, recipe-writers would write things like “finger-breadths of water”, “butter the size of a pea”.  Of course, medieval cooks had no rulers, digital scales or measuring jugs.  So they had to rely on comparisons that other people would understand.

The also left out things that they assumed the reader would already know. Hannah Wolley wrote The Queen-Like Closet, or Rich Cabinet in 1672.  In it, she gives a recipe to make “pancakes so crisp as you may set them upright.”  The recipe goes:

Make a dozen or a score of them in a Frying-pan, no bigger than a Sawcer, then boil them in Lard, and they will look as yellow as Gold, and eat very well.

This is barely a recipe at all.  It gives no details on how long to cook them, how much lard to use, or how hot they should be cooked at.  It wasn't intended for a beginner cook, but rather for someone who already knew how – more of a memory aid.

Frontispiece of The Queen-Like Closet.

Back further, in the time of Ancient Rome, the situation was the same. It's very difficult to reconstruct old recipes because of this.  A recipe by Apicius for “another mashed vegetable” goes:

Cook the lettuce leaves with onion in sode water, squeeze, chop very fine; in the mortar crush pepper, lovage, celery seed, dry mint, onion; add stock, oil and wine.

Measurements have often been based on the body, because so long as one person is doing the measuring, the ratio works out just fine.  The Sumerians used the width of the pinky and of the hand; and the distance between the pinky-tip and thumb-tip on an stretched hand.  The basic Greek measurement was the daktylos (width of a finger), and 24 of them made a cubit. The Romans used the daktylos but called it a digit.

The finger was a common kitchen measurement.  Martino de Rossi (1400's Italian culinary expert) said, “take four fingers of marzipan”. Pellegrino Artusi (late 1800's cookbook writer) began one of his recipes with, “Take long, slender, finger-length zucchini”.

Handfuls were also used.  Many Irish cooks still use handfuls of flour to make soda bread.

Moving away from the body – the walnut was a very common measurement, from France, Italy and England to Russia and Afghanistan.  It's been used at least since the Middle Ages.  This is because walnuts tend to be about the same size, and they were seen often enough to remember how big they were.  There are some small varieties, such as the French noix noisette (about hazelnut size).  But the common walnut is what the comparison is for.  It is usually 2.5-3.5 in diameter.

The walnut (Juglans regia) was imported from Persia to Ancient Greece, and reached China by 400 AD.  It was an important crop in medieval France, but didn't reach Britain until the 1400's.

Butter was often measured walnut-size.  In 1823, Mary Eaton used a piece of butter “the size of a walnut” to stew spinach.  In 1861, Mrs. Beeton said to use a walnut-sized butter for grilling rumpsteaks.

There were many other objects used for measurements.  Peas were common, and so was the nutmeg (about a modern teaspoon).  In the 1600's, bullets and tennis balls were used.  Various coins were a reference too, which is how you have the silver-dollar pancakes in America.

Nutmeg.

Yelena Molokhovets (b.1831) was a Russian cook.  She wrote the famous A Gift to Young Housewives, which had over 20 editions and sold over 295,000 copies.  She cut ginger the size of a thimble, and dough the size of a wild apple. Butter was, again, walnut-sized.

The modern kitchen term “dice” come from when cooks like Robert May (1558-c.1664) cut beef marrow into “great dice” and “small dice”.

The clock began to be used in the kitchen by the 1700's.  But before that, recipes usually gave cooking times in prayers.

For example, a medieval French recipe for preserved walnuts says to boil them for the time it takes to say a Miserere (which is about 2min).  The shortest measurement of time was the Ave Maria (about 20sec).  Everyone knew how long these prayers took, because they chanted them together in church, at the same speed.

The usual way to test the heat of an oven was by simply sticking your hand in it.  You'd tell from the level of pain how hot it was, and if the oven was ready for baking loaves, which needed the fiercest heat.

The paper test was used often by confectioners in the 1800's.  The purpose of this test was to follow the decreasing levels of heat as the oven cooled down.  Cakes and pastries, because of their high butter & sugar content, could catch fire if they were put in at a too-high temperature.

A piece of white kitchen paper was put on the oven floor, and the door was shut.  If it caught fire, it was too hot.  10min later, another piece of paper was put in, and if it charred, it was still too hot. 10min more, and if the paper turned dark brown (without catching fire), then it was “dark brown paper heat”, suitable for glazing small pastries, which needed a high heat.

Then there was “light brown paper heat”, a few degrees lower, for vol-au-vents, hot pie crusts, timbales, etc.  “Dark yellow heat” was a moderate temperature, for larger pastries.  And finally there was “light yellow paper heat”, a gentle temperature, for meringues, manqués and génoises.

The flour test was similar.  A handful of flour was thrown onto the oven floor, and you waited for 40sec.  If the flour slowly browned, then it was the right temperature for bread.

The earliest thermometers were invented in the 1500's, mostly for measuring air temperature.  The Fahrenheit scale was invented in 1724, and the Celsius scale in 1742.  But even in the late 1800's, measuring heat in the kitchen was done with the old methods.

Thermometers (mid-1600′s) that go up to 50°.  Black dots mark each degree, and white dots mark each 10°.

Around the turn of the century, cooks began realizing the usefulness of thermometers.  A new American oven called the “new White House” had an oven thermometer included, “in order to keep...strictly up to the minute.”

In 1915, the first gas oven with a fully-integrated thermometer appeared on the market.  By the 1920's, electric stoves with electromechanical thermostats were being produced.  However, it was easier to just buy a separate thermometer and get it fitted to the oven, if you didn't want to go out and buy a new one.