#the marlin isn’t super accurate

[rexbalistidae]

She caught it with one hand

Bonus comic to go with it

[rocorambles]

Mmm your Yandere Noya post was so gooood!!! Now I’m thinking about a Yandere Noya who’s super in love with his darling through high school, even though she keeps brushing him off. And after high school if he just couldn’t keep away from her and finally refuses to take no for an answer? I kind of peg him as a bit delusional, maybe considering all the earlier rejections as “playing hard to get” or “teasing”? If you’re ever down to write Yandere Noya breaking and finally taking his darling for the first time, desperately trying to make her enjoy it/admit she’s enjoying it (enjoying him) — I would literally LOVE to read it.

100% a Yandere Nishinoya is delusional by more than just a bit~ 

Warnings: NSFW, Yandere, Non-Con/Rape, Stalking, Obsessive and Delusional Behavior

When Nishinoya had announced that he was going to travel around the world after graduating from Karasuno, no one questioned him. It just made sense. Of course Miyagi, hell even all of Japan, wasn’t big enough to satisfy a wild adventurous soul like his. So they waved him off at the airport and ooh-ed and aah-ed at his amazing pictures from across the globe without a second thought. 

Maybe if they had paid more attention, they would have found it strange that he always seemed to be in the same city as you. 

Maybe if you had paid more attention, you would have realized that the loud boy you had always ignored in high school and blocked on all social media after continuous ignored rejections hadn’t lost any of his determination and obsession. 

But this is real life and as annoying as Nishinoya can be, you know he’s harmless. Obnoxious, stubborn, and unreasonable. But harmless nonetheless. 

Or so you thought. 

Years pass and you smile as you walk by a fishing coast in Italy, eyes sparkling as you take in the rowdy bantering of fishermen and glistening scales of their large hauls. But you freeze when you hear your name being called.

Why does that voice sound so familiar? 

You’re unsure how to feel when Nishinoya makes his presence known, tucking the huge marlin he’s caught under his arm as he beams at you. Something in the back of your head nags at you, urges you to be cautious. What are the chances that he’d be in this exact spot of the world at the same exact time you are? Surely it can’t just be coincidence...

You mentally shake your head, scowling at yourself for your paranoid thoughts. It’s Nishinoya. There’s nothing sinister or dangerous about the man, even if he is older and taller now. And a small smile slips onto your face as he grapples and whoops loudly as the marlin flops around in his arms. 

Yup. Same old Nishinoya. 

Frankly, you even feel a little bad as the two of you catch-up and you wonder why you had been so short tempered with him when you were younger. Maybe that’s why when he asks if you want to come over to his place for dinner, you don’t hesitate to eagerly nod. And now here you are, seated across a table from him, sharing a delicious plate of cooked marlin as the two of you joke around and reminisce about your old Karasuno days and Miyagi in general. 

But you freeze when he broaches the topic of you and him, teasing you about how you always played “hard to get”, nervously swallowing your food as he goes on and on about how much he liked you, how much he still likes you, how he’s so glad you’re finally done playing around and ready to be in a real relationship with him. 

Isn’t this romantic? Having your first date in Italy? Eating a home cooked meal that he had caught together? 

“Nishinoya, I’m sorry if I led you on, but this isn’t a date. It’s just two old classmates catching up-”

Your throat goes dry and clams up at the fiery angry look in his eyes, a look you’ve only seen on the court when you used to watch your high school team play. 

“Aren’t you tired of this? Tired of having me chase and follow you around the world? South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, France...”

You’re not paying attention anymore, body going cold and trembling as he accurately lists every country you’ve been to since graduating from Karasuno and you subtly sneak a glance at the door, calculating how fast you could make a run for it. 

But it’s not subtle enough and before you can even fully stand up from your seat, you’re being tackled to the ground, crying out in pain as your body crashes against the hard floor. And then it’s a mess of flailing limbs and screams as the two of you grapple with each other, you trying to escape the pinned position you’re in, him keeping you held down. 

What he lacks in raw strength, he makes up for in pure tenacity and speed and you sob as your waning strength pales in comparison to his relentless hold on you, weakly slapping him and trying to push him away as his lips crash down on yours, as his hands shove your shirt and bra above your breasts, roughly kneading and groping them, rolling your nipples between his fingers.

You feel so violated as intense eyes unnervingly gaze at your bare torso and you clench your own eyes shut, unable to look any longer at the man above you, praying for all of this to end quickly. Maybe now that he’s had a peek and a taste, he’ll be satisfied...

But you struggle with renewed fervor when you feel your bottoms and panties being pulled down, when cold air hits your most intimate part, a fresh wave of tears streaming down your face as you scream and beg for him to stop, stop, stop, only crying harder when he just gently shushes you, planting soft kisses on your neck and down your collarbone to calm you down as he rubs your clit and slips a finger inside, taking his time to stretch you out. 

Nishinoya is determined to make you feel good and you hate how focused and loving he is as he carefully studies your face expressions, your body reactions, coaxing needy gasps and moans from you, causing your nipples to harden and your back to arch. You hate how good it feels, how your own body betrays you as it chases the growing pleasure and arousal coiling inside of it. And you hate how he affectionately strokes your hair as you come undone around his cock, body twitching and trembling in bliss as you’re forced over the edge. 

But what you hate the most is how comforting it feels to be wrapped in strong wiry arms and tucked alongside a lean body as your exhausted body basks in post-coital bliss, how you have no urge to pull away as sweet loving words are murmured in your ear while your heavy eyelids flutter shut. 

[flickwatches]

Off Week Takes

We won't be diving too often into APAC (even though its a great region for overwatch). But when I have time I want to talk a little bit about what's happening in APAC OWL, also the Dallas Fuel and Sp9rk1e, and the overall derailment of the French super team Rogue.

APAC

So lets get started by talking about the Guangzhou Charge. A team some "experts" (Custa) are calling possibly the worst team in APAC. At first I thought this was the worst take possble but than I remembered that APAC has less teams than NA and that the Valiant aren't looking that bad (will get into that more later). Mandu and Kariv are still good. Jihun/Rio and Crong are still good. If I had to pick a point of struggle I would pick Coaching and the DPS. Even though Choisehwan is playing out of his mind on Tracer he is not the best Tracer on the team. Eileen is godly on Tracer and I can only assume he is benched because of hero pool and scrim results. Charge are starting the most inexperienced DPS duo in APAC. Technically Krystal for Valiant isn't a rookie and NYXL hasn't played yet but they can still play Ivy (a veteran). This is becoming long and drawn out but the coaching decisions on the Charge and lack of DPS experience seems to be hurting them a lot this meta.

Another reason I would say the Charge are being rated so low is because the Valiant are being rated so high. High as in people are pulling them out of the trash and readding them to there power rankings. While the Charge are slightly underperforming the Valiant are overperforming at a large scale in comparison to there expectations. I personally left the Valiant out of my power rankings altogether. So I feel like the views of these teams are slanted a little based on expectations and results. Even though both teams haven't won a game yet.

The Chengdu Zone. You Chengdu it. Etc etc etc. Everyone is raving about the former one trick team 3-0ing the Shanghai Dragons. I want to talk about the one thing slightly overlooked about the Hunters hot start. The support line, Mmonk and Nisha. This team has never looked more stable (or stable altogether) than they have now. And its very apparent the support line has a lot to do about it. They provide a pillar of strength for a team known for making extreme decisions. Stable backline, good ult economy. I feel like there allowing to the Hunters to point the "use everything kill everything" gun not just accurately but efficiently. I don't mean this as an insult to Ga9a but I feel like the support line is so strong right now that they could be getting the same value with Ameng starting at Main Tank. And Ameng is real downgrade in comparison to Ga9a. Watch out for the Hunters as the season continues. These supports mite actually guide players like Leave, Jinmu, and Elsa to the promise land.

Dallas Fuel

I believe the general opinion of Sp9rk1e has not been very accurate since last season. He does excel on heroes like Doomfist and Genji but he also players heroes like Pharah, Tracer, and Echo. A lot of problems the Paris Eternal had toward the end of the season revolved around Sp9rk1e being the Tracer and the Echo player during a Tracer and Echo meta which meant Xzi had to fill next to him and it didn't go very well for that meta. Now that the meta has changed slightly and the coachings are adjusting around Doha next to him it looks like Sp9k1e has more room to express his dominance as a DPS. Any value and positives the Fuel are gaining so far this season are from Sp9k1e playing the DPS role at a disadvantage vs other teams. Last season the Eternal tried to have Sp9k1e mirror warpath Zarya god Decay on an elimination map to no prevail. But this season I don't believe Sp9k1e will let another match get that far out of his grasp while he's alive on a DPS hero.

Being Old and A Pro Overwatch Player

What happens when you've played a few years of OWL and your worth has naturally gone up? What happens when at the same time teams are trying to cut cost and sign cheaper players? You sit at home, lie about do the streamer grind, and watch minimum rookies underperform at the highest level of Overwatch. Agilies took a pay cut to go back to the Valiant only for the Valiant to move to China. No way Linkzr took more than league minimum to play on Vancouver. China mite be paying out more then NA but players like Kai and Shax had to have taken no other offers available discounts. Only team that made any kind of splash for veterans was the Shock by signing Nero, Glister, and FDgod. They also signed Twilight last year. The difference is they sign at the minimum with the expectations of higher payouts from tournament winnings. Soon was cut from Boston for Visa issues instead of being held onto until he was ready. Players are in desperate need of more protection. Many players are moving over to Riot owned Valorant for strictly the career safety net it provides. CSGO and League careers have traditionally been much longer on average than Overwatch careers. Valorant is a CSGO like game owned by the makers of League of Legends. A combination of 2 of the longest running esports. One of the biggest things holding OWL back is the backhanded business model of spending less money to make more instead of winning to make more. If you know anything about IRL sports basically the majority of OWL are just the Florida Marlins, or Philadelphia 76ers, or Jacksonville Jaguars. Purposely putting out poor rosters and making money off of existing in there leagues.

Rogue Going Rogue

One of the greatest overall career disappointments in pre OWL Overwatch history. This team was one of the dominate teams of the pre OWL era. Korea had Lunatic-Hai and Runaway. NA had Envyus (a famously EU team). And EU had Rogue. Runaway was the underdog, Lunatic-Hai was the king, Envyus was the king slayer, but Rogue was the triple DPS ego maniacs of what Overwatch could of been. OWL gave us goats. Rogue tried to give us Tracer, Genji, and Soldier 76 at the same time. Winz (the Lucio player for Rogue) would famously screenshot and tweet from the payload during official matches. Nicogdh (gdh stands for god hand) would swap between Genji and Dva. AKM player Soldier 76, Pharah, and Dva up until he refused to play Dva and forced Nicogdh to play Dva. Soon played the Tracer, the Tracer, and sometimes the Tracer. This team also had Unkoe on Zen.

Unkoe

Winz

Nicogdh

I can't believe and OWL org didn't want this group of players to represent them....

Nicogdh has famously just talked, talked too honestly, and too much. I personally like Nicogdh as a person but he does talk, a lot. Or the fact someone added gdh to end of there player name and well Nicogdh and people around him went a little crazy about it in a negative way. Honestly that has to be one most respectful things you can do. His gdh is the godliness standard for mechanics. People have harassed him in the past, he has been knocked for that, but the dude also harasses others and assumes its equivalent. This man is extremely hard to attach to a brand with sponsors. Or just to a team altogether and still have his teammates trust him.

Unkue is honestly known to be a little trolly and toxic in match making. He had some "strong" opinions in OWL and toward the end of his OWL career but he wasn't too problematic. He always seemed like he had a negative mindset.

Winz was just aggressive in a good way at first but it started to become negative when Rogue started losing and stopped being able to play pro. The payload tweets became attacks on teams and other players. One could say these players cared about each other so much they refused to let others talk badly about them. But they have notoriously been negative publicly and showed there ass a majority of the time in many situations.

Which brings me to Soon and AKM. The founders of the "no talk can't be problematic" club. They paved the way for future generations of DPS talents to have viable career options because they learned to never talk shit, never get involved in drama, and separate there private life from there careers. Its very easy to sign players like Soon and AKM and not have problems. Honestly the only problem is the baggage of ex teammates.

Conclusion

Sorry this is kind of off the wall, not very concise, and not in a format I prefer. I need to start proof reading things and building easier to read article like stuff. I just got inspired with teams topics tonight and wanted to kick them out in my limited free time. Sorry I couldn't bring up more research for the Rogue stuff. but Nicogdh does have a long list of just random statements and comments. I do understand right now that the French community is being harassed right now and I do want to stress a bit of self defense of those players who speak publicly about it. Not everything comes out right all the time there just trying to express how they feel during this trying time for them and there fellow community members. They just want people to stop harassing them in game, online, and in life.

[viraljournalist]

How many bad teams would it take to beat the Astros, Dodgers or Yankees?

New Post has been published on https://viraljournalist.com/how-many-bad-teams-would-it-take-to-beat-the-astros-dodgers-or-yankees/

How many bad teams would it take to beat the Astros, Dodgers or Yankees?

9:00 AM ET

Sam MillerESPN.com

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ESPN baseball columnist/feature writer Former editor-in-chief of Baseball Prospectus Co-author of “The Only Rule Is It Has To Work”

It is, like the story began, the best of times and the worst of times — an era received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.

There are three major league teams on pace to win 104 or more games — a mark reached by only 10 teams in the past 40 years — and another two on pace to win 99.5. (There have never been four 100-win teams in a single season.) There are three teams on pace to lose 104 or more games, another on track to lose 101 and a fifth on pace to lose 99. (There has only once been four 100-loss teams in a single season.) Fully a third of the league could end up at one of the two triple-digit extremes that typically would mark The Best or The Worst team in baseball.

How to put the gap between, say, the Yankees and, say, the Orioles, in context? A simple way is to note that the Yankees are 17-2 when the two clubs play. Or to note that the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers — the three 104-wins-or-better clubs — are collectively 41-12 against the Orioles, Tigers, Royals and Marlins, the four 101-losses-or-worse clubs.

2 Related

A more complicated way is to ask this: How many of these bad teams would it take to make up one of these great teams? Would a playoff superteam of the Royals, Orioles, Tigers and Marlins be able to hang with the super playoff teams in Houston, New York and Los Angeles? In an era of total teardowns on the bleak side of the standings and insatiable depth hoarding on the bright side of them, is there room for any good players on a last-place roster?

To answer this question took 17 tabs in a spreadsheet.

Here were the rules: We built 25-man rosters for the Astros, Yankees, Dodgers and Tigeroyiolins — on second thought, that’s the only time we’ll attempt to call them that. Henceforth, they will be the Superteam — based entirely on 2019 stats: a starter at every position, four bench players covering infield, outfield and catcher, a four-man starting rotation (because only four are needed in the postseason) and an eight-man bullpen. We prorated each player’s 2019 WAR for a full, healthy season in the role he is assigned to: 600 plate appearances for starters (except 500 for the catcher), 250 for bench players, 175 innings for starting pitchers and 65 for relievers (except 95 for one designated swingman).* The plan was to see how many bad teams it takes to compete with the Astros, Dodgers and Yankees.

We’ll start the bidding at four teams, do I hear four teams?

SUPERTEAM

C Pedro Severino, 1B Garrett Cooper, 2B Jonathan Villar, 3B Hanser Alberto, SS Adalberto Mondesi, LF Trey Mancini, CF Whit Merrifield, RF Hunter Dozier, DH Jorge Soler

DODGERS

C Will Smith, 1B David Freese, 2B Max Muncy, 3B Justin Turner, SS Corey Seager, LF Alex Verdugo, CF Joc Pederson, RF Cody Bellinger, DH A.J. Pollock

ASTROS

C Robinson Chirinos, 1B Yuli Gurriel, 2B Jose Altuve, 3B Alex Bregman, SS Carlos Correa, LF Michael Brantley, CF Jake Marisnick, RF George Springer, DH Yordan Alvarez

YANKEES

C Gary Sanchez, 1B Luke Voit, 2B DJ LeMahieu, 3B Gio Urshela, SS Gleyber Torres, LF Giancarlo Stanton, CF Brett Gardner, RF Aaron Judge, DH Edwin Encarnacion

The best player on any of the Orioles, Royals, Tigers or Marlins, by total WAR, has been Jonathan Villar, acquired in a midseason trade by Baltimore last summer. At the time, the competitive Brewers were trying to upgrade at second base, so they traded their second baseman (Villar) and a couple of prospects for the non-competitive Orioles’ second baseman, Jonathan Schoop. Since then, Villar has been the 42nd-best player in baseball, just ahead of Trea Turner, Paul Goldschmidt and Manny Machado. He has been the ninth-best second baseman, while Schoop is 42nd. It was a masterful trade by the Orioles: 21 homers, 33 steals, 3.8 WAR this year.

Mike Trout is now better than … wait for it … Derek Jeter. Sam Miller »

So, there are good players on the Superteam, of which Villar is undeniably one. Soler has 44 homers, Alberto is hitting .320, Mondesi has 39 steals, Dozier is slugging .550. But the fact that Villar is the best player that the four teams can produce puts the Superteam’s uphill climb in perspective: Teams who are committed to losing don’t keep MVP candidates around. Villar is not an MVP candidate, the way Cody Bellinger and Alex Bregman are. He is not even above-average by the standards of the other three teams’ rosters: There are 21 Dodgers, Astros or Yankees who have produced more WAR than Villar on a per-plate-appearance level this year. Villar is cast here as the best player on any of four major league rosters.

The Superteam might make it up on depth or pitching, but its nine best players simply can’t compete with the nine regulars on any of our three historically great teams:

Superteam: 175 homers, .281/.341/.474, 26.4 WAR (scaled to 600 plate appearances per player) Dodgers: 199 homers, .276/.361/.532, 42.3 WAR Astros: 210 homers, .293/.372/.544, 46.2 WAR Yankees: 206 homers, .279/.355/.519, 39.7 WAR

(Note that all of these teams’ WARs are exceptionally high, even higher than the Astros, Dodgers and Yankees’ lineups have actually produced this year. That’s because we’re picking only their very best player performances, after the fact, giving the teams full health and awarding nearly all playing time to those nine best players. Real life doesn’t go this smoothly.)

But those are just the starters. In theory, depth could benefit the Superteam. There’s no Cody Bellinger on a 100-loss team, almost by definition, but there might be a whole lot of Mike Fords.

On the other hand, depth is part of what makes these Dodgers, Astros and Yankees so incredible. They’re not building nine-man lineups, but 13-man lineups — players able to platoon, to move around the field and to not just fill in but very nearly replicate injured starters. Over the course of a full season, when 50 or 60 players might be called upon, the Superteam’s depth almost certainly would win out. But for just a 25-man roster, the good teams are nearly as deep:

SUPERTEAM

C Jorge Alfaro, INF Miguel Rojas, OF Anthony Santander. UT Jon Berti

DODGERS

C Russell Martin, INF Enrique Hernandez, OF Matt Beaty, UT Chris Taylor

ASTROS

C Martin Maldonado, INF Abraham Toro, OF Josh Reddick, UT Aledmys Diaz

YANKEES

C Austin Romine, INF Didi Gregorius, OF Cameron Maybin, UT Mike Ford

Superteam: .276/.330/.437, 4.6 WAR (scaled to 250 plate appearances per player) Dodgers: .254/.331/.434, 4.1 WAR Astros: .251/.322/.425, 3.9 WAR Yankees: .260/.318/.473, 3.6 WAR

The Superteam inches up, but barely.

As to starting pitchers:

SUPERTEAM

Matthew Boyd, John Means, Brad Keller, Spencer Turnbull

DODGERS

Clayton Kershaw, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Walker Buehler, Rich Hill

ASTROS

Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Zack Greinke, Wade Miley

YANKEES

James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, Domingo German, J.A. Happ

The Superteam’s staff has one All-Star appearance (Means, this year) and zero Cy Young votes. The other three teams’ pitchers have won five Cy Youngs and appeared in 31 All-Star Games. But it’s not quite as bad as it looks. The Superteam’s rotation actually has been better than the Yankees’ rotation, despite a 28-48 combined record this year (thanks to terrible offenses behind them and terrible bullpens protecting their leads). Still, it’s not great:

Superteam: 4.24 ERA, 4.31 FIP, 12.0 WAR (scaled to 175 innings per pitcher) Dodgers: 2.84 ERA, 3.51 FIP, 15.6 WAR Astros: 3.08 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 17.0 WAR Yankees: 4.45 ERA, 4.62 FIP, 10.5 WAR

Again, in a longer season the Superteam might benefit. It’s fair to say the Superteam’s eighth- and ninth-best starters — Daniel Norris and Jakob Junis, maybe? — are better than Houston’s. But Houston isn’t going to need eight starters to get through October, and at the top of the staffs it’s a huge mismatch.

For bullpens, we chose to limit our options to actual relievers, so unused starting pitchers (for example, Daniel Norris, Jakob Junis) were not generally considered for the Superteam’s bullpen. Pitchers such as Ross Stripling and Kenta Maeda, who have both started and relieved this year, and who are likely to be in the Dodgers’ actual postseason bullpen, were:

SUPERTEAM

CL Ian Kennedy, RP Mychal Givens, RP Scott Barlow, RP Buck Farmer, RP Shawn Armstrong, RP Jarlin Garcia, RP Jose Cisnero, SWING Sandy Alcantara

DODGERS

CL Kenley Jansen, RP Pedro Baez, RP Yimi Garcia, RP Ross Stripling, RP Dustin May, RP Kenta Maeda, RP Joe Kelly, SWING Julio Urias

ASTROS

CL Roberto Osuna, RP Ryan Pressly, RP Will Harris, RP Joe Smith, RP Hector Rondon, RP Chris Devenski, RP Josh James, SWING Brad Peacock

YANKEES

CL Aroldis Chapman, RP Tommy Kahnle, RP Adam Ottavino, RP Chad Green, RP David Hale, RP Zack Britton, RP Luis Cessa, SWING Jonathan Loaisiga

Superteam: 3.96 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 7.3 WAR (scaled to 65 innings per pitcher) Dodgers: 3.74 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 7.9 WAR Astros: 3.24 ERA, 3.86 FIP, 6.9 WAR Yankees: 3.15 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 8.4 WAR

Add it all up:

Superteam: 50.3 WAR

Dodgers: 69.9 WAR

Astros: 74.0 WAR

Yankees: 62.2 WAR

To repeat something from earlier: 74 WAR is a crazy-high total for the Astros, and it would equate to about a 120-win team in real life. But it assumes almost perfect health and almost perfect decision-making by the Astros, funneling nearly all of their playing time to the players who actually were the best this year.

Who has clinched a postseason spot and who could be next? Playoff tracker

2019 postseason schedule

But the same applies to the Superteam. The ex post facto nature of this exercise benefits them most of all, because it allows us to accurately pick, from the 215 or so mostly anonymous players these four teams will field this year, the 25 who actually had the best years — in many cases, career years, years unlike any they’ve ever had or will have again.

Indeed, if we were to use not actual, observed WAR to measure each roster’s strength, but projected, future WAR, the Superteam would fall even further behind. In that case, team strength would look something more like this:

The Superteam built above, in other words, projects to be somewhere around a .500 team, assuming good health, while the others project to be around 100-win teams. I think we can say, conclusively, that four teams put together still aren’t as good as the Astros, the Dodgers or the Yankees. Wild.

Do I hear five teams?

Superteam 2: Superteam + Blue Jays. Add Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Bo Bichette, Danny Jansen, Wilmer Font and Ken Giles. Remove Miguel Rojas, Trey Mancini, Jorge Alfaro, Jose Cisnero and Sandy Alcantara.

Total WAR: 58.1.

Do I hear six teams?

Superteam 3: Superteam 2 + Mariners. Add Kyle Seager, Tom Murphy, Marco Gonzales and Sam Tuivailala. Remove Jon Berti, Danny Jansen, Brad Keller and Jarlin Garcia.

Law’s 2019 prospects of the year

A home run mark for all 30 teams

One key for each wild-card hopeful

Olney: What’s next for the Red Sox?

Total WAR: 64.3, good enough to pass this year’s Yankees (who, it’s worth noting, are without excellent outfielders Aaron Hicks and Mike Tauchman, both key contributors this year but both out for the season, and Luis Severino and Dellin Betances, who have no statistical records to go on this year but could each return for the playoffs).

Do I hear seven teams?

Superteam 4: Superteam 3 + Rockies. Add Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Ryan McMahon, Jon Gray, German Marquez and Scott Oberg. Remove Adalberto Mondesi, Hanser Alberto, Garrett Cooper, Spencer Turnbull, Marco Gonzales and Buck Farmer. Break the rules and move Bo Bichette to second base.

Total WAR: 68.4. Still worse than the Dodgers and the Astros. Do I hear eight teams?

Superteam 5: Superteam 4 + Pirates. Add Josh Bell, Bryan Reynolds, Jacob Stallings and Felipe Vazquez. Remove Ryan McMahon, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Pedro Severino and Shawn Armstrong.

Total WAR: 72.9. Ahead of the Dodgers and somehow still behind the Astros.

Do. I. Hear. Niiiiiiine teams?

Superteam 6: Superteam 5 + White Sox. Add Lucas Giolito, James McCann, Aaron Bummer and Tim Anderson. Remove Matthew Boyd, Jacob Stallings, Scott Barlow and … Jonathan Villar.

Total WAR: 75.7. Phew.

Is the conclusion too hard to believe? Does it seem credible if you simply look at the rosters?

SUPERTEAM

C Tom Murphy, 1B Josh Bell, 2B Bo Bichette, 3B Nolan Arenado, SS Trevor Story, LF Bryan Reynolds, CF Whit Merrifield, RF Hunter Dozier, DH Jorge Soler, UT Tim Anderson, UT Kyle Seager, UT Anthony Santander, UT James McCann, SP Lucas Giolito, SP John Means, SP Jon Gray, SP German Marquez, RP Felipe Vazquez, RP Ian Kennedy, RP Ken Giles, RP Mychal Givens, RP Sam Tuivailala, RP Aaron Bummer, RP Scott Oberg, RP Wilmer Font

ASTROS

C Robinson Chirinos, 1B Yuli Gurriel, 2B Jose Altuve, 3B Alex Bregman, SS Carlos Correa, LF Michael Brantley, CF Jake Marisnick, RF George Springer, DH Yordan Alvarez, UT Aledmys Diaz, UT Abraham Toro, UT Josh Reddick, UT Martin Maldonado, SP Gerrit Cole, SP Justin Verlander, SP Zack Greinke, SP Wade Miley, RP Ryan Pressly, RP Roberto Osuna, RP Will Harris, RP Joe Smith, RP Hector Rondon, RP Chris Devenski, RP Josh James, RP Brad Peacock

The Astros have the two best starting pitchers, maybe the three best. They have, easily, the best player (in Bregman), and by WAR per plate appearance this year they have the three best (Bregman, Alvarez, Springer). They have five of the top seven, with only Trevor Story and Bo Bichette reaching 5 WAR per 600 plate appearances on the Superteam side. While depth eventually will favor the Superteam, all of the 104-win teams have built extremely deep 25-man rosters. Of our original Superteam 1 players, maybe half would have made the Dodgers’ Opening Day roster.

The point is, this is really some kind of era we’re living in. You’re seeing some of the worst baseball that’s ever been played. The Tigers actually don’t have a single above-average hitter, in any number of plate appearances above two. And you’re seeing some of the best baseball that’s ever been played. According to Baseball Prospectus’ third-order winning percentages, this year’s Astros and Dodgers actually are the two best teams since 1950. It’s amazing that these teams have coexisted in the same league, occasionally playing against each other, standing next to each other, and had it even look like baseball at all. It’s a baseball miracle.

But that’s not the payoff for this era. The payoff is the postseason, when as many as five 100-win teams — and three historically great ones — are going to smash into each other, with barely a below-average player in the bunch. Truly, it can’t get here fast enough.

* In cases of injury, the player was included on the roster if he seemed likely to return sometime this year or if he would return but for his team being out of contention. He was not included if he definitely is out for the year, like the Marlins’ Brian Anderson. Players who have been traded away, like the former Tiger Nick Castellanos, aren’t eligible. There was some preference to players with more playing time, but mainly we went with the most productive players on a per-PA basis. And players are allowed to play slightly out of position if, as with Whit Merrifield, they’ve played at least some significant time at the position to which we wish to assign them. We used Baseball-Reference’s WAR for hitters and FanGraphs’ WAR for pitchers.

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[junker-town]

J.D. Martinez is the best hitter on the free agent market

The best hitter of the 2017-2018 free agent class is available to sign, and all your team needs to do is spend.

No one will remember this, but there was a time this year when no one cared about J.D. Martinez. The trade deadline was approaching, the Tigers knew they had to deal him, and the response from the baseball world was a booming, echoing “Meh.” With, like, seven “h”s. He was off to a great start, but all of the contenders had full outfields. No one could make room, and it allowed the Diamondbacks to swoop in with an underwhelming trade package.

Then Martinez hit 29 home runs in 62 games. He hit more homers after joining the Diamondbacks on July 19 than anyone on the Giants, Phillies, Red Sox, or Cardinals hit all year. He was one of the greatest deadline acquisitions in history, joining a pantheon that includes CC Sabathia, Randy Johnson, Carlos Beltran, and Marco Scutaro. Even though the Diamondbacks were eliminated in the NLDS, the undeniable excitement and electricity Martinez brought to Chase Field, even for a couple months, made him one of the best trade acquisitions in franchise history.

Martinez probably had a lot of fun in Arizona. But if you’re thinking he’s willing to cut them a deal, check out the timing on this move:

Prize free agent J.D. Martinez has switched agencies, is now a client of Scott Boras

— Rob Bradford (@bradfo) November 1, 2017

The DAY before free agency, Martinez went into a phone booth and emerged with a cape shaped like Scott Boras. There is no clearer sign in the universe that a player is interested for the best deal for himself and his family. Boras’ pitch was that he got $161 million for Chris Davis, who was an inferior player. It’s an easy pitch, and now Martinez is looking for a contract that will make you stop what you’re doing, walk down to the corner store, pay for a drink, take a sip, and spit it out.

If a team is going to do that, I hope they’re not expecting Diamondbacks J.D. Martinez. Because, friends, it’s probably a touch unlikely for Martinez to hit 77 home runs in a full season, which was the pace he swatted them for his new team. Pay for Martinez to be the hitter he was before the trade.

Before the trade, he was pretty freaking good, of course.

We’re four seasons into the idea that J.D. Martinez is a really, really, really good hitter. More than that, a complete hitter. Hits for average. Takes a walk. Hits for power. He’s not exactly a tortoise on the bases, either. It’s always jarring to remember that Martinez is good enough to compete for a batting title one day, mostly because it’s so easy to conflate high strikeout totals with poor contact.

Let’s forget about his time with the Diamondbacks as much as possible, then, and focus on what he’s likeliest to do based on the rest of his career. Baseball-Reference has projections up, and they’re not based on someone’s secret computer algorithms. They’re based on nothing more than his last three years, with a little bit of an adjustment for age built in.

PA: 496 BA: .290 OBP: .358 SLG: .570 HR: 31

Reasonable. Very, very reasonable. Very, very reasonable and ultra-desirable, but those aren’t the numbers that Boras is using for his expected contract. He probably already has a three-ring binder titled “WHY J.D. MARTINEZ IS GOING TO BUILD THE WHOLE AIRPLANE OUT OF SECOND HALVES,” and he narrates the audiobook himself.

Now we get to the elephant in the room: Martinez’s defense. More like the elephant in the outfield, ha ha, just a little fielding humor, folks, but, seriously, Martinez’s numbers are ugly. It’s how a player with 46 homers in just 119 games can be worth just a little more than Dee Gordon last year, according to WAR. If you’re looking for a good breakdown of what’s wrong, Mike Petriello looked at the relevant data before last season. The range isn’t there, and the arm allows teams to run wild on him. Boras claims that the defensive stats aren’t accurate, but it’s not like the eyeballs tell a different story.

And don’t ignore the fact that he wears his sunglasses on the back of his head when he’s indoors, like a monster.

One year, $3 million. Final offer.

Anyway, our job here today is to look for which team makes the most sense, and which team is the logical favorite. Who is leading the J.D. Martinez sweepstakes?

The Ideal Fit

Maybe instead of ditching prospects and taking on an extra $100 million, the Giants could just, I don’t know, sign Martinez? As long as they’re looking to make a huge splash (pun definitely intended, considering that Martinez is one of the few right-handed hitters alive who could actually get a ball into the water), they should just spend the money on the dingers instead of trade and spend money on them. Won’t even cost them a draft pick.

Except the Giants want a better defender. They also have a rough time luring free agent hitters to play at AT&T Park on purpose. The Giants are also concerned with box-office appeal right now, as they’ve stopped selling every game out for the first time in years, which isn’t necessarily something that Martinez helps with. And while it seems like Giancarlo Stanton being 28 next year isn’t a big deal compared to Martinez’s 30, those are two prime years that come along with the huge contract, which makes a difference for a team that’s not really sure what their window really looks like right now. Stanton might help a team reset in 2022. Martinez is less likely to.

No, the ideal team is the Diamondbacks, who kinda got used to Martinez. If they have any hopes of chasing the Dodgers in the NL West, a full season of Goldschmidt and Martinez would help. Holy heck, is that a middle-of-the-order gauntlet.

Alas, with Zack Greinke’s contract and Goldschmidt’s impending free agency, it would appear that the Diamondbacks have less money to spend than any other team. If he would have chilled out and hit half as many homers, it probably would have helped them more for 2018, which is an odd twist.

The Likely

The Red Sox come up a lot here, and for good reason. That hypothetical question up there about the Giants — why trade for Stanton when Martinez costs nothing but money? — applies doubly so for the Red Sox. Not only do they have more shiny things that the Marlins might perseverate on in trade talks, but Stanton’s no-trade clause could make a deal a non-starter from the beginning. Better to dive into the deep end of the Boras lagoon and start doing laps.

The Cardinals might be an even better fit, though, if Stanton really does want to play on a coast. They have a little money to spend, and while they’re eternally developing outfielders who can hit .281/.347/.460 (not hyperbole), they don’t have anyone with that kind of power. If they’re interested in spending money, there isn’t a better fit than Martinez.

I’m always against the idea of the teams that are constantly linked to a single free agent, though. Everyone has linked Martinez to the Red Sox so much, the idea has lost some of its oomph. It’s like when we ranked Super Mario games last week. After about the fourth one, the word “super” looked like it was made up. Sooper. Soup her. Storpor. It lost all meaning. So it goes with rumors.

I’m looking at the FanGraphs post linked above about teams with payroll room, and I keep stopping on the Dodgers. Once they moved Chris Taylor to center and soured on Joc Pederson, the future of their outfield alignment took shape. They might try Pederson again, and they might hope that Andrew Toles takes some of the pressure off him. Or they might try to melt the offseason into a puddle of goo and then lap the goo up like a doberman. Getting to a Game 7 and losing it will do funny things for a team that spends a billion dollars on payroll every four years.

Prediction

Dodgers. Six years, $188 million. I know they’re looking to spend a little less in preparation of Clayton Kershaw opting out and Bryce Harper and Manny Machado becoming available, but the Seager/Bellinger/Taylor core is going to let them afford a whole lot of luxuries in the future. They’re just taking an advance on those luxuries now.

The Dodgers already had a fearsome lineup in the postseason. They’ll have no problem spending to get fearsomer.

[maboz3c60-blog]

HTC A single A9

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