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#thus is from 18 Nov 2023 by the way
mofffun · 10 months
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Farmers of Chikyu, I present Kaku So + archery
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punkscowardschampions · 7 months
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Jali Fams Plotting
Ali- 13/02/2000
Ronan- 31/08/2000
Johnny- 23/02/1996 
Moses- 30/09/1997
Bartley- 14/11/1999
*Ronan and Bartley were in Ali and Carly’s year when they went to school, thus how y’all meet and everything
Right, so Jali starts when she’s 12 which would be summer 2012, Django is conceived 3-11 July 2013 according to the calculator I have so the Jali miscarriage must happen to set that off after they’ve been together a year which we haven’t really considered so we need to note that down because we always rush on a first go lol
Django is born 30th March 2014 and Carly dies 24th April 2014
By this point, aka when everything has gone horrifically wrong, Johnny is 18 or about to be so can absolutely get married being a gypsy
The drama of you being gone by the summer of 2014, okay us
Sophie Turner is 16 when y’all wed, just so we remember, she’s like 2 years older than Ali
You could fit in a child or two here, Ali’s next/her first technically is 2016 so you’ve got from summer 2014 to then which gives 2 in my head
We don’t have to be ultra specific but let’s assume you’re pregnant by sept of 2014 you can have your first kid by june 2015
Giving a full irish twins moment you can have your next and Ali namesake by march 2016 which is perfect because Rio is conceived in march 2016 so you know what you did lmao
Rio has my boo’s bday in 2016
Caleb is NOT ready for fatherhood (and frankly no one can blame you you’re bouta be 17 but like yikes)
Edie is conceived 30th Jan to 7th of Feb but these calculators are only a guide so as my boo said we can absolutely make it her bday actually and you’re just a bit early/late ‘cos only a week off anyway, slay except not because the way you have slid in the DMs and impregnated her again immediately Moses
Clearly need a Johnny child in response to this charming relationship so hold awn, would be Oct/Nov 2017, the way i’m sure billie has met troye at some point, surely, because this is your 3rd and the face
Ali doesn’t have more kids ‘til 2021 so time to fit the rest of Johnny’s bar the response child in for sure
Fitting in the Moses breakup sometime in here, we don’t have to specify but it needs to happen by the below, obvs
‘Cos the twins are twins, they can be about a month early and so they can be conceived on Ali’s bday again in 2021 so that’s a reconciliation vibe with Caleb for sure, even if it happens before your bday but then he stupidly decides on said day that y’all should try again like it isn’t gonna fuck it all again heh, boy you try
Let’s give 2021 to your lily rose face, she could then be twin-useable should we want
Last thing to note is Junior who is conceived end of nov 2022 to be born in august 2023
Last Johnny kid in retaliation to Ronali getting together at some time in the 2021/2022 time so your kid can fit in there before Junior
Django- 30/03/2014
Nelus- 15/06/2015
Alifair- 04/03/2016
Rio- 03/12/2016
Fennix- 22/10/2017
Edie- 27/10/2017
Grace & Janis- 13/10/2021
Keziah- 11/12/2021
Acorn- 09/09/2022
Junior- 13/08/2023
Ronali breakup 2028, Junior is about 5, y’all have been together about 7 years so it’s giving the most stability we’ve had
So we know the kick off of reunion times is the whole money debacle which is sometime in 2030 just before Una dies which is end of July, when Ali finds out and comes at him
Then the mum reveal which as we’ve said can be pretty soon after because it’s been coming in the air tonight in Johnny’s life hence it was not handled well, so we’re around end of summer 2030, for the sake of how old y’all are
Django- 16- 17 years older than M
Nelus- 15- 16 years older than M
Alifair- 14- 15 years older than M
Rio- 13 ‘til Dec- 15 years older than M
Fennix- 12 ‘til Oct- 14 years older than M
Edie- 12 ‘til Oct- 14 years older than M
Grace & Janis- 8 ‘til Oct- 10 years older than M
Keziah- 8 ‘til Dec- 10 years older than M
Acorn- about to be 8- 9 years older than M
Junior- just 7- 8 years older than M
Aww Maggie has to be conceived by Christmas for her birthday 17/09/2031, not hanging about but that’s what we need so go us
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wisestudentpeanut · 8 months
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duggardata · 6 years
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Given what we know so far about the fertility rate of the married Duggar children, how many grandchildren are Jim Bob and Michelle going to have?
I just built a tool that predicts courtships, engagements, marriages, and babies.  You have to understand, though, this is really hard to predict, and impossible to predict accurately.  When fed a set of assumptions, my tool can spit out results, but—at least right now—it can’t account for things like… whether, and how fast, the second–generation may leave the quiverfull movement; health crises cutting short a couple’s fertility; or a child’s failure to marry or remain married.
That said, its predictions are based on real, Duggar and couple–specific data—so it’s a really, really fun tool to play with!
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As for your Grand–Duggars question, I’ll start by explaining how The Predictor works, then I’ll give you the results…
But, TL;DR—It’s 278 Grand–Duggars.
By necessity, the Predictor relies on baseline assumptions to estimate when stuff will happen.
Note—When the date of a Duggar’s courtship, proposal, wedding, or child’s birth, or—in the case of offspring still in utero—child’s due date is known (to a reasonable certainty), I always, always, always feed it into The Predictor.  I won’t use any of the assumptions below; I’ll just feed in the real date.  Those dates, in turn, are averaged to create the assumptions.
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Assumptions—Absent known data to the contrary, it’s assumed that Duggars’ behavior will be exactly, perfectly average, based on known age or timing data from all Duggars, whether born–in or in–law.  As such…
Courtship—Male Duggars begin courting at Age 22.73.  Female Duggars begin courting at Age 20.59.
Engagement—Occurs 164 Days after the ‘courtposal.’
Marriage—Occurs 92 Days after the proposal.
Fertility—Duggar Daughters stay fertile to Age 43.2416, while Duggar In–Laws remain fertile to Age 40.  If a Male Duggar is single, his future wife’s DOB set 2.34 Years after his—yielding a Duggar–average age gap.
Firstborn—Arrives 327 Days after the wedding, if fertility permits.  (This is the Duggar–average delay from wedding to firstborn.)
Second Child—Arrives 475 Days after Child 1, if fertility permits.  (This is the Duggar–average spacing between children.)
Subsequent Children—Arrival based on the specific couple’s mean pace, spacing, or if there’s no couple–specific data yet, on the Duggar mean of 1 Child Every 475 Days.  Either way, procreation ends only with fertility.
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Bolded averages are accurate as of today, April 10, 2018, based on all event up to that date, but obviously subject to change as we get data from newly–started relationships or new Grand–Duggars.
Note—I had tell the Predictor how to deal with events that are ‘overdue, like Jana and JD’s courtships.  So, I decided on this:  When an event is overdue, the Predictor calculates how many SDs overdue it is, rounded up to the next whole SD.  It them sets the new ‘due date’ that far from the original one.
Okay, hopefully you’re with me!  After feeding The Predictor all our known data, plus the assumptions above, it predicts a total of 278 Grand–Duggars.  Here’s how many it predicts for each already–established couple…
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Based On Couple–Specific Data  (Couples w/ 2+ Children)—
Josh + Anna,  11—June 2019, Apr 2021, Jan 2023, Nov 2024, Aug 2026, and June 2028, and Mack, Mike, Marc, Mere, and Mason
Jill + Derick,  13—Jan 2019, July 2020, Feb 2022, Aug 2023, Feb 2025, Aug 2026, Mar 2028, Sep 2029, Mar 2031, Oct 2032, Apr 2034, and Izz and Sam
Jessa + Ben,  18—May 2018, July 2019, Sep 2020, Oct 2021, Dec 2022, Jan 2024, Mar 2025, May 2026, June 2027, Aug 2028, Sep 2029, Nov 2030, Jan 2032, Feb 2033, Apr 2034, May 2035, and Spurge and Henry.
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Based On Overall Duggar Data, Due to Insufficient Couple–Sufficient Data  (Couples w/ 1 Child or Less)— 
Jinger + Jeremy,  15—July 2018, Nov 2019, Feb 2021, June 2022, Oct 2023, Jan 2025, May 2026, Aug 2027, Dec 2028, Apr 2030, July 2031, Nov 2032, Feb 2034, June 2035, and Oct 2036
Joseph + Kendra,  16—June 2018, Oct 2019, Jan 2021, Sep 2023, Dec 2024, Apr 2026, July 2027, Nov 2028, Mar 2030, June 2031, Oct 2032, Jan 2034, May 2035, Sep 2036, and Dec 2037
Josiah + Lauren,  16—Apr 2019, Aug 2020, Nov 2021, Mar 2023, June 2024, Oct 2025, Feb 2027, May 2028, Sep 2029, Dec 2030, Apr 2032, Aug 2033, Nov 2034, March 2036, July 2037, Oct 2028
Joy–Anna + Austin,  18—June 2019, Sep 2020, Jan 2022, May 2023, Aug 2024, Dec 2025, Apr 2027, July 2028, Nov 2029, Feb 2031, June 2032, Oct 2033, Jan 2035, May 2036, Aug 2037, Dec 2038, Apr 2040, plus Gideon
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Also…
All Duggars, Ranked from Most to Least Fruitful, Based On Available Data (Which is Limited For Non–Courting Age Duggars)—
Quiver of 18—Jessa, Joy–Anna
Quiver of 17—Johanna, Jennifer, Jordyn, Josie
Quiver of 16—Joseph, Josiah
Quiver of 15—Jinger
Quiver of 14—Jedidiah, Jeremiah, Jason, James, Justin, Jackson
Quiver of 13—Jill
Quiver of 11—Josh
Quiver of 10—Jana Marie
Quiver of 9—John David
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Finally, I’ll leave you with a couple of terrifying thoughts—
Per the Predictor, the Duggars’ last grandchild (Josie’s 17th) will arrive in mid–October 2052.  At that point, Jim Bob will be Age 87.25, Michelle will be 86.09, and their first grandchild (Mackynzie) will be 43.02. 
Assuming the Third–Generation is 50% Male, 50% Female, and courts, marries, and reproduces at the same rate as the Second–Generation has thus far, J.B. + Michelle will have 4,309 Great–Grands, and 66,774 Great–Great–Grands.
Yikes. 
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clubsocial-india · 5 years
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New on Sports Illustrated: What's Next in the James Wiseman Saga?
Wiseman has withdrawn from the University of Memphis and reportedly signed with an agent, making him ineligible to play in NCAA games.
James Wiseman is now a professional athlete. The former University of Memphis Tigers freshman, who had been suspended by the NCAA for allegedly accepting $11,500 in moving expenses from Memphis head coach Penny Hardaway while Wiseman was in high school and Hardaway was a high school basketball coach, announced on Friday that he had withdrawn from the university. The Athletic's Shams Charania reports that Wiseman has signed with an agent. The signing renders Wiseman ineligible to play in NCAA games.
Wiseman’s short stay at Memphis attracted a considerable amount of attention from NCAA enforcement officers and attorneys hired by Wiseman and the NCAA.
The Wiseman-NCAA battle formally began on Nov. 8 when his attorneys sought and obtained a temporary restraining order from a judge in Shelby County (Tennessee). The order effectively blocked the NCAA from suspending Wiseman. Although the NCAA had not yet suspended Wiseman, the non-profit organization expressed that it would likely do so.
The pending suspension primarily concerned events that had occurred in 2017. At the time, Hardaway was a coach at Memphis East High School. He allegedly paid $11,500 in expenses for Wiseman and his family to move from Nashville to Memphis. Several months later, the University of Memphis hired Hardaway and later signed Wiseman as a top recruit.
The NCAA objected to the payment of expenses not because Hardaway would be hired by Memphis months later, but because the NCAA classified Hardaway as a representative of Memphis’s athletic interests (also known as a “booster”). Hardaway, the third overall pick in the 1993 NBA draft, is a legendary alumnus of the university and its basketball program. Boosters include persons who promote a school’s athletic program. Under NCAA rules, boosters are generally forbidden from conferring money or items of value to a university’s student-athletes or its recruits.
About a week after obtaining a temporary restraining order, attorneys for Wiseman negotiated a resolution of sorts with the NCAA. Wiseman withdrew his litigation and accepted the NCAA’s authority to suspend him. The NCAA suspended Wiseman 12 games, a suspension the NCAA upheld on Wiseman’s appeal. The suspension would have expired on January 12, meaning the 11th-ranked Tigers planned on Wiseman playing in postseason tournaments.
More controversially, the NCAA also required that Wiseman “donate” $11,500 to a charity. Obviously, a “required donation” is tantamount to a fine—a curious punishment for a player who, as an amateur, can’t be paid. NCAA rules also do not contemplate player fines.
Wiseman finishes his collegiate career having played in three games. The 7’1, 240-pound center averaged 19.7 points and 10.7 rebounds in those games. Wiseman is widely expected to be selected among the top three picks in the 2020 NBA draft.
The Wiseman saga will continue to play on in at least five ways:
1) Wiseman can now sign lucrative endorsement deals and profit from the use of his name, image and likeness. If it hasn’t already happened, it won’t take long for representatives of major sneaker, apparel, food, beverage and video game companies to contact Wiseman’s agent and present offers.
A player projected to be a top three pick in the NBA draft can expect multi-million-dollar endorsement offers from companies in those and other industries.
The days of worrying about NCAA eligibility are officially over for Wiseman. He’s now a pro and can become a very wealthy 18-year-old in a matter of days.
2) The timing of Wiseman’s announcement is really bad for the NCAA. While the NCAA fends off legal and policy attacks on its system of amateurism, Wiseman just highlighted the power of players to render the NCAA irrelevant.
Consider the context of Wiseman’s decision. California Governor Gavin Newsom recently signed the Fair Pay to Play Act, which beginning in 2023 will make it illegal for California colleges to deny college athletes opportunities to hire agents and license their names, images and likenesses. Other states are exploring similar legislation. NCAA president Mark Emmert was in D.C. earlier this week hoping for members of Congress to propose an NCAA-friendly bill on name, image and likeness while offering an ambiguous message at an Aspen Institute forum.
Meanwhile, the G League is paying players more and giving them greater publicity, and NBA players are helping G Leaguers unionize. Watching it all unfold are LaMelo Ball and R.J. Hampton, two 18-year-old American basketball stars who are getting paid to play in Australia’s National Basketball League while preparing for the 2020 NBA draft.
It would not be surprising to see elite high school basketball stars increasingly turn away from playing in college. Even without eligibility to enter the NBA out of high school, they can, as 18-year-olds, play professionally, get on TV, make good wages and sign endorsement deals. They also just saw the NCAA impose a five-figure fine—ahem, required donation—on Wiseman, whom NCAA amateurism rules forbid from being paid for his highly marketable basketball talents and identity.
This is a not a good fact pattern for the NCAA.
3) Will Wiseman ever make the “required donation”? It’s not clear if Wiseman or his family have complied with the NCAA punishment that he “donate” $11,500 as a condition to him returning to play.
If he hasn’t paid the amount and refuses to do so, the NCAA might experience difficulty enforcing this supposed obligation. The NCAA claimed in writing that Wiseman “must donate $11,500 to a charity of his choice.” This was strange wording. A donation is a voluntary act. Merriam-Webster defines a donation as “the making of a gift.” We are not legally obligated to make gifts.
Unless Wiseman has contractually agreed to make the donation, it is probably not one that the NCAA can legally enforce. The NCAA no longer has any leverage over Wiseman. He’s a pro.
4) Will Wiseman return to school? As a basketball player, the answer to this question is clearly “no.” As a student, we’ll see. A number of NBA players and other pro athletes have pursued studies and completed college degrees during the offseason. With more and more schools offering online courses, starting or returning to college are much more feasible.
The larger point: college is not a “one shot” deal. A player who leaves school and turns pro hasn’t foreclosed the chance to return there, or at another university, as a student. He or she wouldn’t receive an athletic scholarship, but they might have earned enough money to pay tuition or they might receive other kinds of scholarships and aid.
5) Will Hardaway or Memphis be punished? While Wiseman is now beyond the long reach of the NCAA, the same can’t be said of Hardaway or the University of Memphis. As detailed by Sports Illustrated’s Pat Forde, the NCAA could punish both for violations related to moving expenses. Hardaway, for example, could be suspended given his role in the controversy.
The NCAA might also punish Memphis for playing Wiseman against Illinois-Chicago on Nov. 8 and Oregon on Nov. 12 while he faced a pending punishment.
To that point, the NCAA previously warned Memphis that the school “ultimately is responsible for ensuring its student-athletes are eligible to play." The NCAA also has the power of the Restitution Rule. Under this rule, the NCAA can compel a school to share television receipts for games played by a player whom the NCAA declares ineligible but who defied the NCAA by playing through a court injunction that is later vacated.
Here, as part of a settlement with the NCAA, Wiseman petitioned for the judge to dismiss the lawsuit and thus vacate the injunction. Also, the NCAA had not yet suspended Wiseman. Under those circumstances, the NCAA would probably decline to pursue a penalty under the Restitution Rule. We’ll see.
Michael McCann is SI’s Legal Analyst. He is also an attorney and Director of the Sports and Entertainment Law Institute at the University of New Hampshire Franklin Pierce School of Law.
December 20, 2019 at 05:47AM What's Next in the James Wiseman Saga? from Blogger https://ift.tt/38T6BVz
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