#time and yet it became lionsgate’s highest grossing film and still is to this day

[grahamcore]

mentioning the saw franchise around me is like dumping buckets of chum into shark infested waters

[wazafam]

An Oscar winner at age 22, Jennifer Lawrence's career achieved stratospheric levels thanks to her work in the Hunger Games franchise. Playing lead character Katniss Everdeen, Lawrence earned critical and commercial success, establishing her as one of Hollywood's most promising and talented A-listers.

RELATED: Jennifer Lawrence's 10 Most Iconic Roles, Ranked From Most Lighthearted To Most Disturbing

Lawrence successfully mixed her work in The Hunger Games with critically acclaimed turns in other movies, some of which earned her further recognition from the Academy. She also played another pivotal role in a second franchise, X-Men, cementing her popularity and bankability. And while some people might still see her as Katniss, it's clear that Lawrence's resume has enough diversity to prove she's one of the best and most versatile actresses of her generation.

10 Katniss Is Best: It's A Classic Hollywood Tale

Many actors dream of making it big in Hollywood. Indeed, there's a popular saying that implies that success is only a role away. For Jennifer Lawrence, this was actually the case. Katniss brought her critical and commercial acclaim and took her from promising young starlet to bonafide star almost overnight.

Lawrence became a classic Hollywood success story, which made her all the more likable. Everyone loves an ingénue and Lawrence certainly embodied the concept. To top it all off, she proved to be a genuinely skilled and capable actress, cementing her place as a talent to be reckoned with.

9 Rosalyn Is Better: She Displayed Her Comedic Chops

In her second collaboration with David O. Russell, Lawrence got to display her comedic talent. For her performance as the self-absorbed, chaotic Rosalyn Rosenfeld in 2013's American Hustle, Lawrence scored her third Oscar nomination and won her second consecutive Golden Globe.

The character doesn't get much to do in the story, yet Lawrence's presence is vital for the film's success. Furthermore, the actress takes a role that could easily seem obnoxious or over-the-top, and injects it with dynamism and vulnerability, creating a unique take on the bored and selfish housewife.

8 Katniss Is Best: Every Hero Wanted To Be Her

Soon after the premiere of the first Hunger Games, dystopian films became a favorite of both studios and audiences. Divergent, The Maze Runner, Ender's Game, and The Giver are just some of the movies that came out after The Hunger Games, wanting a piece of that dystopian money.

Katniss soon became the standard against which all dystopian characters were measured. Not only that, but the actors themselves have been compared to Lawrence, in a slightly unfair battle of status and talent. Hardly any of these films achieved The Hunger Games' success, though.

7 Dominika Is Better: It Showed Her More Mature Side

Red Sparrow was a bold choice for Lawrence. Equal parts action film and psychosexual thriller, the story centers on Dominika Egorova, a former ballerina who uses sexpionage to make contact with a CIA officer in the hopes of discovering the identity of a mole.

RELATED: 10 Movies To Watch If You Liked Red Sparrow

The film isn't entirely successful in offering a sleek, action-packed adventure. Instead, it was criticized for being overly convoluted and thinly written. Still, Lawrence adopts a more mature and elegant persona and delivers a committed performance that almost saves the film, proving once more that she's capable of carrying a movie all by herself.

6 Katniss Is Best: She Delivered At The Box-Office

Far too many people in Hollywood still believe that women are incapable of carrying a franchise. In her 2014 Oscar speech, Cate Blanchett challenged this notion, famously declaring that films starring women aren't niche experiences and that people in fact want to see them.

Lawrence herself proved this when Catching Fire became the first female-led film to top the domestic box-office since The Exorcist back in 1973. Catching Fire is also the highest-grossing film distributed by Lionsgate, and the highest-grossing entry in The Hunger Games franchise.

5 Tiffany Is Better: Oscar!

For her role as the troubled, grieving widow, Tiffany Maxwell, in David O. Russell's 2012 romantic comedy, Silver Linings Playbook, Lawrence won the 2013 Academy Award for Best Actress. At 22, she was the second-youngest actress to win the Oscar, placing her in an even more select group.

Silver Linings Playbook allowed Lawrence to show an impressive collection of emotions. She goes from tranquility to restlessness with surprising ease, never once reducing Tiffany to just a concept. She makes her flawed character sympathetic and endearing, all the while showing maturity well beyond her years.

4 Katniss Is Best: She Proved The Naysayers Wrong

Lawrence's casting was initially met with some criticism from people who argued her weight didn't accurately represent a character who supposedly experienced near-starvation for most of her life. In their reviews of the first film, critics for The New York Times and The Hollywood Reporter doubled down on these sentiments, with the latter even pointing that Lawrence exhibits "lingering baby fat" in certain shots.

Because neither Josh Hutcherson nor Liam Hemsworth ever receive similar criticism, many believed the attacks on Lawrence's appearance were sexist, and it would be difficult to argue otherwise. Lawrence didn't allow any of this to affect her performance, though, and delivered an excellent take on a strong-minded and inspiring leader.

3 Mystique Is Better: Consolidating The Character

Mystique is a consistent presence in the first three X-Men films. Played with an icy detachment by model-turned-actress Rebecca Romijn, Mystique is very much a femme fatale, a deathly and silent figure who barely gets any backstory or development.

RELATED: 10 Unexpected Romances In X-Men Comics

Lawrence gives new depth and complexity to the character, starting with 2011's X-Men: First Class. It's in Days of Future Past, however, that the character truly reaches her full potential. Lawrence's Mystique is just as dangerous as Romijn but far more engaging. And while Apocalypse and Dark Phoenix don't do the character any favors, Days of Future Past remains Mystique's finest hour.

2 Katniss Is Best: She's An Actual Icon

Like Harry Potter, Aragorn, Ellen Ripley, and Rick Deckard, Katniss now belongs to a select group of characters who have transcended both page and screen, becoming actual parts of pop culture. She is logically seen as a feminist icon, a woman who refuses to bow down and literally strikes an arrow at the heart of the patriarchy.

Furthermore, her rebellious and warrior persona even took a life of its own. The three-fingered salute Katniss famously uses as a rallying cry was adopted by pro-democracy groups in Thailand and Hong Kong, proving once more that reality will always be stranger than fiction.

1 Mother Is Better: It Shows Her Depth, Range, And Talent

Darren Aranofsky is a director with a unique vision. Raw, disturbing, and generally lacking in subtlety, Aronofsky is fascinated by themes of solitude, desperation, dependence, and redemption. All of these are present in his ambitious and divisive psychological horror film, mother!

Whether it's seen as a religious metaphor or an elaborate depiction of the nature and dangers of the male ego, mother! is a true gem. Polarizing and thought-provoking, the film rests squarely on Lawrence's shoulders. The actress takes on the challenge with impressive bravado, achieving her finest turn to date, and proving once and for all that she's not only a star, but a truly gifted and unique actress with talent to spare.

RELATED: 5 Ways Superman Is Henry Cavill's Best Role (& 5 Better Alternatives)

5 Ways Katniss Everdeen Is Jennifer Lawrence's Best Role (& 5 Alternatives) from https://ift.tt/39CLDfP

[angelofberlin2000]

... because Reeves is the star, he has no equal.

Sep 18, 2017

To the surprise of absolutely no one, Lionsgate has announced and slotted John Wick: Chapter Three. The third entry in the accidental franchise is now slated for May 17, 2019.

I’ve always said that the weekend before Memorial Day is among the very best on the calendar, offering the potential for a big opening and then a solid holiday hold. Yes, last summer had Alien: Covenant, which was the least leggy such offering in recent history, but the slot has seen the likes of all four Shrek movies, all three Star Wars prequels, The Matrix Reloaded and Mad Max: Fury Road. So, yeah, Lionsgate watched Star Wars 9 ditch the Memorial Day opening weekend and saw an opening.

If we argue that a franchise grows bigger in stature by virtue of its release dates, then John Wick has been promoted yet again. The first installment was a genuine buzzy sleeper in October 2014. So, the sequel got a more high-profile launching pad over this past President’s Day weekend. We’ll see if the franchise peaked at part II (like Scream or Pirates of the Caribbean) or whether it builds on the third shot (or potentially goes crazy like Goldfinger or Skyfall.

Maybe the answer is somewhere in-between, but John Wick is now the rarest of things, an explicitly star-driven franchise. The success of John Wick is very much about the ongoing and periodically regenerated star power of one Keanu Reeves. Mr. Reeves is arguably the most successful movie star of the modern age in terms of creating wholly original and sequel-friendly franchises.

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 Sure, we can talk about his famous philanthropy, his understated and often underappreciated acting, his “sad Keanu” memes, or the fact that he apparently drank from Tuck’s well in the early 1980s and thus will never age. But what’s most impressive is that Reeves’ stardom persists in this IP/franchise-driven era. The secret is that the reclusive and philosophical actor has made a habit of creating a new iconic cinematic character on an almost generational basis.

Depending on how old you are, you may have discovered Reeves in the late 1980s with Bill and Ted’s Excellent Adventure, where he so exquisitely played a good-hearted airhead that said characterization stuck as a kind of offscreen typecasting for decades. Or maybe you first saw the actor in Kathryn Bigelow’s Point Break, where overeager and exasperated FBI agent Johnny Utah and Patrick Swayze’s guru surfer bank robber essentially invented the testosterone-fueled bromance. It wasn't a big hit, but it spawned a remake, a satirical stage play (Point Break Live) and a loose rip-off that spawned a rather fast and furious eight films-and counting franchise.

Or maybe you discovered (or rediscovered) Reeves via Jan De Bont’s action classic Speed, which turned his onscreen kamikaze airhead reputation on its head for what amounted to a cheerful, well-mannered action hero. The film was slightly ahead of its time in casting a somewhat unconventional actor as its muscular action lead. It was a new trend begun by Die Hard and Batman and made mainstream when Nicolas Cage cashed in on his Oscar win to make The Rock, Con Air and Face/Off in the mid-1990s.

Reeves’ blockbuster action hit, which turned Sandra Bullock into a leading lady, kept Reeves’ name in good graces as he dabbled in smaller films and quirkier projects like A Walk in the Clouds, Feeling Minnesota or The Devil’s Advocate. While Reeves has long specialized in understated dramatic turns (not unlike Harrison Ford or Kevin Costner), Taylor Hackford religious melodrama/gonzo comic thriller, which gave us Charlize Theron, is a rare occasion where Keanu Reeves delivered a terrific over-acted performance. He held his own against a peak-ham Al Pacino.

But just as Reeves’ star was fading, he gave us a new iconic cinematic character for a new generation in the guise of Thomas Anderson. You may know him as Neo, but The Matrix was one of the most influential major studio releases of our time, and the Wachowskis’ mind-bending cyberpunk action trilogy became Reeves’ biggest grossers here and abroad. And whether they acted as a gateway drug for younger would-be Reeves fans or served to reignite the fandom born of Bill and Ted’s Excellent Adventure, Point Break and Speed, The Matrix gave Reeves yet another defining and iconic cinematic character to call his own.

By the time the Matrix franchise wrapped up in late 2003, the industry was starting to do away with outright star vehicles, especially those not based upon prior source material. So, it’s no surprise that Reeves’ two big hits in the mid-to-late 2000s were Constantine (a loose adaptation of the DC Comics title Hellblazer) and The Day The Earth Stood Still (a remake of a classic 1950’s sci-fi drama). Both films earned around $230 million worldwide on budgets of $100m and $80m respectively. Fun fact: Until Wonder Woman, Constantine was the biggest DC Comics adaptation without Batman or Superman ever.

The post-Matrix 2000’s offered a few small-scale winners (I will defend Reeves and Sandra Bullock’s The Lake House, a moving meditation on adult loneliness, unto death) and worthwhile indie films (Thumbsucker, The Private Lives of Pippa Lee, etc.), but the mainstream stuff (Street Kings, 47 Ronin) didn’t stick. Even the actor admits that the phone stopped ringing as much, although he did produce and narrate a terrific documentary (Side by Side) about digital video versus conventional film stock and direct the delightfully entertaining Man of Tai Chi.

And on paper, John Wick probably looked like a somewhat lower-rung, glorified VOD actioner better suited to Bruce Willis or Scott Adkins, a kind of “Oh, I guess Keanu Reeves is making a Taken knock-off” grindhouse offering. But the stylized and stylish actioner, starring Reeves as a retired hitman drawn back into the fray after Russian mobsters kill his newborn puppy, was a rarity. It was a genuine, under-the-radar sleeper hit.

The picture, directed by Chad Stahelski and David Leitch, was picked up by Lionsgate less than three months prior to its eventual late-October 2014 release and turned into a genuine mainstream hit. Thanks to good reviews, strong buzz and a solid marketing campaign that treated the film as a generational coronation for the occasionally underappreciated movie star, the picture vastly overperformed its pre-release tracking estimates, opening with $14 million and legging it to $43m domestic and $88m worldwide on a $30m budget.

That’s not a king’s ransom, but the picture, which played off Reeves’ star persona as a Zen-like man of action (and the fact that he had been somewhat MIA from mainstream movies), became an instant genre favorite and would-be cult classic. It was a big post-theatrical hit and John Wick: Chapter Two opened this past February as a true breakout sequel with a $30 million debut weekend for an eventual $92m domestic and $171m worldwide gross on a $40m budget.

The John Wick franchise is rooted in the idea of seeing Keanu Reeves specifically as John Wick, specifically because of Reeves’ performance and how the character plays off his persona. And that applies to all his defining characters, from Ted to Neo to Wick. Plenty of actors have one or two iconic/defining cinematic characters to their credit. Reeves has at least four (Bill and Ted’s Excellent Adventure, Speed, The Matrix and John Wick) and possibly five (if you want to count Point Break’s Johnny Utah). Moreover, all of them stemmed from original screenplays sans any attachment to branded content or preexisting source material.

Moreover, all of them stemmed from original screenplays sans any attachment to branded content or preexisting source material. In 2017, Reeves is still around, still relevant, and still creating wholly original cinematic franchise-friendly characters. It would be like if Harrison Ford were still creating new characters as popular as Indiana Jones or Han Solo. Or, it would be like if Hell of High Water or Blackhat did even 25% of what Star Trek or Thor did at the domestic box office.

It is that ability (aside from the whole talent/charisma/professionalism/commitment stuff), to create new characters just often enough to snag new fans and reacquaint himself with older fans that keeps the actor exciting and bankable even in an IP/branded content world. Most actors are lucky to have one iconic character. Some, like Alan Rickman, get two. Keanu Reeves has at least four, all of which are wholly original cinematic creations.

Like Denzel Washington and Leonardo DiCaprio, Keanu Reeves is still a movie star because he remains bigger than the property and can score big bucks and new fans absent any property at all.  And unlike any of his peers, he has a knack for embodying wholly original characters that redefine (or reenergize) his stardom right when the wick is about to burn out. And in terms of starring in films that create sequel-friendly franchises, franchises that succeed specifically because Reeves is the star, he has no equal.

 Thanks to mr-reeves.com !

[silkfood8-blog]

'The Nun' Delivers 'Conjuring' Franchise Record, $131 Million Global Debut

by Brad Brevet September 9, 2018

Warner Bros. and New Line's The Nun made good on expectations, setting a new franchise opening weekend record (both globally and domestically) and delivering the second largest September opening ever. Meanwhile, STX's release of Peppermint delivered on expectations, and Mission: Impossible - Fallout became Tom Cruise's highest grossing worldwide release of all-time, topping $725 million globally.

With an estimated $53.5 million, Warner Bros.'s release of New Line's The Nun destroyed the previous franchise opening weekend record set by the very first The Conjuring at $41.8 million. The debut is also the second largest September opening ever, topping the $48.4 million set by Hotel Transylvania 2 in 2015, while placing well behind the massive, $123.4 million opening for WB's It just last year. In fact, The Nun's $53.5 million debut is also the second largest opening ever for an R-rated horror film, again placing behind WB's It.

This is the fifth straight weekend Warner Bros. has held the #1 spot at the weekend box office, doing so with three different films (The Meg and Crazy Rich Asians). To that point, this is also the fourth straight weekend WB has held the #1 and #2 spot at the weekend box office, an achievement that hasn't happened in over 25 years.

The Nun played to an audience that was 51% male and 44% were 25 years or older. Interestingly enough, this is the first film in the Conjuring Universe to play to an audience that was not majority female while at the same time this is the youngest audience a film in the franchise has played to, a couple percentage points lower than Annabelle's audience, of which 46% were 25 years of age or older.

Multiples for films in the Conjuring Universe are all across the board, though if The Nun plays like Annabelle: Creation we're looking at a domestic performance topping $155 million, though a run similar to the first Annabelle would mean a $121 million performance. Should it play to the franchise average a performance just shy of $150 million would be most likely.

GET MORE: Compare the performances of all five films in the Conjuring Universe!

The Nun was also a hit internationally, delivering $77.5 million from 60 overseas markets for a massive $131 million global debut. Building on its domestic dominance, this is the highest grossing international opening among films in the Conjuring Universe in like-for-like markets, including the largest opening ever for a horror film in 19 of those markets, including including Brazil ($6.8m), Indonesia ($7.7m), Spain ($3.3m) and the United Arab Emirates ($1.6m). The film's top market was Mexico where it delivered a $10.7 million opening followed by the likes of India ($5.2m), UK ($5.2m), Germany ($2.7m) and Australia ($2.7m). Looking ahead The Nun has yet to open in France (Sep 19), South Korea (Sep 19), Italy (Sep 20), Russia (Sep 20), Hong Kong (Sep 20) and Japan (Sep 21).

WB also landed in second place with Crazy Rich Asians, which brought in an estimated $13.6 million, pushing the film's domestic cume over $136 million. The film also added another $5.6 million in 23 markets, bringing the overseas running cume to $28.5 million and a global cume just shy of $165 million. The film will open in the UK this coming Friday followed by debuts in Mexico (Sep 21) and Japan (Sep 28).

STX's Peppermint debuted within industry expectations, while outperforming BoxOfficeMojo's forecast, delivering an estimated $13.26 million opening. The debut is just ahead of the pre-weekend comp to MGM's Death Wish and just a shade behind the $14.4 million debut for John Wick. In fact, the "B+" CinemaScore from opening day audiences is an improvement on Wick's "B" and on par with Dish Wish. From an audience perspective, the film's opening weekend played to an audience that was 56% female while 78% was 25 and over.

STX did not finance the $25 million (net) production, which should push toward a $35+ million domestic run while the studio is anticipating a strong performance overseas where it began its run this weekend in 17 markets, grossing an estimated $1.4 million. The film's top market was the Netherlands with a $370k opening. Peppermint will open in France and Russia next weekend followed by openings in the UK, Brazil and South Korea in October as well as Mexico (Nov 9), Spain (Nov 9), Australia (Nov 15) and Italy (Jan 24) with a release in China yet to be set.

In fourth is WB's The Meg, which pushed its domestic cume over $131 million after an estimated $6 million this weekend, giving WB three of the weekend's top four films. Internationally the film grossed another $11.3 million in 67 territories, including a $3.3 million opening in Japan, taking the international running cume to $360.4 million for a global tally just shy of $492 million.

Sony's Searching rounded out the top five with an estimated $4.5 million, dropping just 26% as it expanded further this weekend into 2,009 locations (+802). The film also added $7.5 million internationally this weekend from just eight markets, bringing the overseas cume to $17.7 million. Still ahead, the film opens in France and Australia next weekend followed by releases in Germany (Sep 20), Brazil (Sep 20), Mexico (Sep 21), Russia (Sep 27), Spain (Sep 28), Italy (Oct 18) and Japan (Oct 26).

Just outside the top five is Mission: Impossible - Fallout, which brought in an estimated $3.8 million, bringing its domestic cume to $212.1 million, just $3.3 million shy of topping Mission: Impossible II to become the highest grossing domestic release in the franchise. That said, with an estimated $38.6 million internationally this weekend, the film's global cume now totals $726.6 million making it the highest grossing worldwide release not only in the Mission franchise, but the highest grossing worldwide release in Tom Cruise's career.

Finishing outside the top ten is Freestyle's God Bless the Broken Road, which fell well behind the studio's $4-4.5 million expectations, delivering just $1.56 million over its three-day debut.

In limited release, Magnolia's Kusama: Infinity opened with $30,400 from two locations; 4th Row's Bisbee '17 brought in $6,650 from one theater; Oscilloscope's Hal opened at New York's IFC Center with an estimated $5,150; Cinema Libre's Nelly also opened in one location with an estimated $1,500; and Film Arcade's Realms delivered just $118 from three locations for a $39 per theater average.

Next weekend will see the release of Fox's The Predator into ~3,900 locations. Additionally, Lionsgate will release A Simple Favor into ~3,000 theaters; Sony's Studio 8 will debut White Boy Rick into approximately 2,400 locations and Pure Flix is expected to open Unbroken: Path to Redemption into 1,500-1,550 locations.

You can check out all of this weekend's estimated results right here and we'll be updating our charts with weekend actuals on Monday afternoon.

Discuss this story with fellow Box Office Mojo fans on Facebook. On Twitter, follow us at @boxofficemojo.

Source: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4435

[njawaidofficial]

Oscars: Has 2017 Seen Any Real Contenders Yet?

http://styleveryday.com/2017/07/10/oscars-has-2017-seen-any-real-contenders-yet/

Oscars: Has 2017 Seen Any Real Contenders Yet?

Let me begin by begging your pardon for taking some time before delivering my annual assessment of Oscar prospects from the first half of the year. Having missed January’s Sundance Film Festival in order to cover the homestretch of the last Oscar race in Los Angeles and May’s Cannes Film Festival in order to cover the homestretch of the Tonys race in New York, I’ve been playing catch-up — attending screenings, popping in screeners and binging at various other film fests including the Boulder International Film Festival, the Tribeca Film Festival, the Los Angeles Film Festival and the Karlovy Vary International Film Festival in the Czech Republic.

At this point, I finally feel like I’ve seen enough of what’s out there to be able to offer an opinion — and yet I feel less confident than ever about doing so. Why? Because the Academy itself has changed greatly over the past year. Roughly one-fifth of the organization’s current membership joined within since June 2016, and the new members are demographically very different from the other four-fifths, making things somewhat less predictable. (As evidence: Moonlight beating La La Land in the biggest best picture upset in Oscar history.)

Nevertheless, I’ll offer my best guess of where things stand: I don’t think we’ve seen a best picture Oscar nominee yet, but there are many elements from the films that we have seen that could register in other categories.

Theatrically releasing a film before August automatically means it faces a steep uphill climb. Only three pre-August releases have garnered best picture noms since the turn of the century — March 2000’s Erin Brokovich, March 2014’s The Grand Budapest Hotel and May 2015’s Mad Max: Fury Road — partly because Academy members tend to forget early releases when inundated with appetizing third- and fourth-quarter releases and partly because distributors tend to hoard their strongest product for the year’s third and fourth quarters when they’re most likely to be remembered.

There are only four films from 2017’s first half that I can even imagine overcoming their early release dates if everything breaks their way. Two are smaller movies: Jordan Peele‘s Get Out (Universal), a satire of present-day race relations, which was made for just $4.5 million but has grossed more than $250 million worldwide since its February release and still possesses the year’s highest Rotten Tomatoes score, 99 percent; and Michael Showalter‘s The Big Sick (Lionsgate/Amazon), a tear-jerking comedy about a Pakistani immigrant, currently at 97 percent on RT, that was a Sundance sensation and is just beginning to move into wider release.

The other two are big-studio productions: Patty Jenkins‘ Wonder Woman (Warner Bros.), the first superhero film in either the DC or Marvel movie universes that centers on a female character, which has grossed $725 million worldwide — more than any other live-action film ever directed by a woman — and which stands at a formidable 92 percent on RT; and Matt Reeves‘ War for the Planet of the Apes (Fox), the biblically undertoned closing chapter of an acclaimed trilogy, which doesn’t open theatrically until July 14 but which already has logged an impressive RT score of 95 percent.

The best picture category can contain anywhere from five to 10 nominees, depending on vote tallies. The category’s cap of five nominees was expanded to a guaranteed 10 ahead of the 2010 awards, in the hope that doing so might bring into the fold a popcorn movie or two along the lines of The Dark Knight, the snub of which caused widespread outrage the previous year. But just five years after that, the organization adopted the current fluctuating size because the experiment had largely failed to yield different sorts of best picture nominees, and the Academy also didn’t want to guarantee 10 nominees in a year in which fewer films might be worthy.

Wonder Woman, which played very well at its official Academy screenings, could be the rare popcorn movie that breaks into the category — it feels like a game-changer in Hollywood, with a subtext that members may particularly want to champion in the aftermath of the 2016 election that saw the defeat of the first female candidate to be nominated for president by a major U.S. political party, and nothing would make the Academy or ABC happier. But if Deadpool, which also got good reviews but didn’t get a best pic nomination, couldn’t make it, it seems unlikely that Wonder Woman will. It seems likelier that it would be acknowledged in the best director category, and certainly in below-the-line categories, where War for the Planet of the Apes also should do well. Get Out‘s Peele also could register with the directors, but I suspect that he and his film are likelier to be embraced by the writers with an original screenplay nom; The Big Sick, which was written by Kumail Nanjiani and Emily V. Gordon, also stands its best shot in that category. And the well-reviewed, E.T.-like Cannes selection Okja (Netflix), directed by the South Korean auteur Bong Joon-ho from a script by Jon Ronson, could be a sleeper with directors and writers.

As for performances? Few strong bets have emerged. The lead actor field could include The Big Sick‘s Nanjiani and/or Get Out‘s Daniel Kaluuya, both breakouts, or the never-nominated vets Richard Gere for Norman: The Moderate Rise and Tragic Fall of a New York Fixer (Sony Classics) and Sam Elliott for The Hero (The Orchard) if their films’ respective distributors mount vigorous campaigns. Also, the indie community might champion the defending best actor Spirit Award and Oscar winner, Casey Affleck, for David Lowery‘s critically-heralded A Ghost Story (A24), but the film — like Affleck’s performance, much of it given under a white sheet — is too out-there for most Academy members.

In the lead actress field, Wonder Woman‘s Gal Gadot has her backers, but likelier possibilities include several women who anchored art-house fare: Rachel Weisz for Roger Michell‘s My Cousin Rachel (Fox Searchlight), playing a woman suspected of murder, a part previously brought to the screen 65 years ago by Olivia de Havilland en route to a Golden Globe nom; Sally Hawkins for Aisling Walsh‘s Maudie (Sony Classics), as the disabled Canadian folk artist Maud Lewis in a part particularly notable for its extreme physical demands; Salma Hayek for Miguel Arteta‘s Beatriz at Dinner (Roadside Attractions), playing the film’s title character, a poor Mexican immigrant who winds up in an uncomfortable conversation; and Nicole Kidman for Cannes best director winner Sofia Coppola‘s The Beguiled (Focus Features), as the head of a girls school during the Civil War.

Revered veterans tend to do well in the supporting categories, so look out for Patrick Stewart, who is at the top of his game as the declining founder of the X-Men in James Mangold‘s Logan (Fox), an unconventional and acclaimed capper to that highly-profitable franchise; John Lithgow, who plays Hayek’s Trumpian tormentor in Beatriz at Dinner; Ethan Hawke, for playing Hawkins’ hard-hearted husband in Maudie; and both Ray Romano and Oscar winner Holly Hunter as the bickering parents of a hospitalized daughter in The Big Sick.

We already have seen many formidable contenders for craft and technical Oscars. Oscar winner Bill Condon‘s Beauty and the Beast (Disney), a live-action remake of the 1991 classic that became the first animated film ever to garner a best picture Oscar nom, is 2017’s only film that has grossed more than a half-billion dollars domestically, and it will get an across-the-board push from its studio. But considering that 2016’s The Jungle Book live-action remake was even better received and still couldn’t land a best picture nom, it seems likely that Beauty also will have to settle for below-the-line recognition. It stands a strong shot for its costume design, production design, sound editing, sound mixing and visual effects, as well as one or two (the Academy’s maximum for a single film) of its three original songs — “How Does a Moment Last Forever,” “Days in the Sun” and the strongest, “Evermore” — which were written by Alan Menken (who garnered three original song noms and one original score nom for the 1991 version, winning in both categories) and Tim Rice (with whom Menken shares another Oscar for an original song, from 1992’s Aladdin).

War for the Planet of the Apes seems destined to follow in the footsteps of the two installments of the franchise that immediately preceded it, 2011’s Rise of the Planet of the Apes and 2014’s Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, which each received VFX noms. War could also crack the sound categories, too, and, being the closing installment of the 21st century trilogy, might finally be the one that convinces the Academy to grant special recognition — perhaps an honorary Oscar — to the undisputed greatest motion-capture performer of all-time, Andy Serkis, who has been perenially overlooked by the actors branch. Meanwhile, Wonder Woman also is a possibility in the costume design, production design, sound editing, sound mixing and VFX categories. The Beguiled could find backing in the cinematography, costume design and production design categories. Kong: Skull Island (Warner Bros.) has cinematography and VFX hopes. Baby Driver seems a natural for the sound categories. And, in the original song category, don’t count out Dark Rooms’ ethereal “I Get Overwhelmed” from A Ghost Story.

Those are the Oscar-friendly films that already have had a U.S. theatrical release or will get one prior to August 1. There are several other Oscar-caliber films that already premiered at 2017 film fests but won’t open in the U.S. until the fall, such as Luca Guadagnino‘s Sundance sensation Call Me By Your Name (Sony Classics), a romantic drama about a gay couple in 1980s Italy, which is dated for Nov. 24. And there also are several examples of work within festival films that also might capture the Academy’s attention, such as two career-best performances featured in films that were unveiled at Cannes, one given by Robert Pattinson, shedding his Twilight baggage to play a small-time criminal, in Good Time (A24), and another by Diane Kruger, playing a woman reeling after a family tragedy, in the German drama In the Fade, for which she was awarded Cannes’ best actress prize. (Good Time opens Aug. 11; In the Fade somehow does not yet have a U.S. distributor — although it feels very Sony Classics to me — and therefore has not yet been dated.)

The 2017-2018 awards season won’t truly begin to come into focus until Labor Day weekend, when the understated Telluride Film Festival — which has screened the last seven films that went on to win the best picture Oscar — gets underway in the Rockies. Fest directors Tom Luddy and Julie Huntsinger recently flew in to Hollywood to whet friends’ appetites at a London West Hollywood cocktail party that drew the likes of Barry Jenkins, Werner Herzog and Roger Corman, shortly after which they announced that two-time Oscar-nominated documentarian Joshua Oppenheimer will serve as the fest’s guest director this year. The 44th edition of Telluride, which already has sold out of admission passes, starts Sept. 1.

Coming later this week: A look at 2017’s first-half documentary feature and foreign language film contenders.

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