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mythrilhusk · 4 years

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Korosensei Never Dies - Chapter 6

Words - 1967 Ao3 Version Chapter 5 (last) Chapter 7 (Next)

AN: Just wanted to note (although it’s already in tags) that there are no ships in this story. The characters may be affectionate with each other, but it’s all platonic.

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Exams are the worst part of school, but the end of the first term approaches fast. Tommy determines he will not fail. Philza has promised to teach them how to fight, and by the ever-loving stars, Tommy wants to show off his mad skillz.

He's so intent on getting fighting lessons that he's dragged his friends into group study sessions. Wilbur insists on leading said sessions, and somehow the schoolwork gets entwined with role-playing battles with fiercesome monsters.

"The answer is forty-two!! I pull out a bazooka and blast everything to smithereens!" Tubbo cackles. "Nothing shall stand in the way of world domination."

"Tubbo," Wilbur sighs for the fortieth time. "That would kill all of your teammates."

"Do I care?" Tubbo grins innocently. "Less competition, big man!"

"I lay down and die." Ranboo says drily, leaning against the wall with his arm around Tubbo's shoulders.

"Not you, Ranboo, you're going to be my puppet queen. Every world-dominating super-villain needs a puppet queen." Tubbo says, quite matter-of-fact.

Tommy scrawls messily on his workbook, determined to complete the next answer first and get a turn. "Ha! Fucking x equals twenty-nine!" He crows. "I shoot my nets at Tubbo and capture him!!"

"Stand-off." Wilbur says with a grin. "Who wrote Frankenstein?"

"Some woman with a boring name." Tommy retorts.

"Anne Rice!" Tubbo cries.

"Tommy, you got the closer answer. It was Mary Shelley."

"Alright, I win, and I say 'Hahaha, you fucking imbecile, you are no match for me!' and then I drag them to jail."

"I completed my worksheet, Wilbur." Eret pipes up. Wilbur takes it, then nods for Eret to complete his bonus action. "I stab Tommy and release Tubbo, saying, 'The world is yours for the taking, but allow me to oversee a portion of it.' and then I kneel and plant my sword in the dust."

"Oh! Oh!" Tubbo waves his worksheet in the air. "Ranboo, stab him for me!"

"As you wish." Ranboo sighs with a wicked grin. Eret protests weakly in the background.

"Ranboo, you need to answer a question correctly, first." Wilbur steeples his fingers. "Or else there will be penalties."

"I, uh, I think I got this one correct." Ranboo shows his study sheet to Wilbur, who nods curtly.

"Fine, go ahead."

Ranboo turns to Eret and says in a dark tone, "You betrayed your friend. I can't trust you, Eret." Then he turns to Wilbur, "I run him through with my dagger."

"Eret, you're now a ghost." Wilbur shuffles through his game notes.

"Aw, man. Can I haunt anyone?"

"Yes."

"I haunt Ranboo to remind him of his crimes."

"Aw, dang, another voice." Ranboo groans playfully.

"Whaddya mean, another??" Tubbo cries. "Am I being replaced, Ranboo??"

"You- you are the voice." Ranboo laughs nervously. "Even when you're dead, I'll still hear you, shouting at me to not kill the bees."

"You better not. I worked hard to cultivate our apiary."

"I won't, I won't."

Tommy finishes his worksheet, ignoring the chatter of the others. "Ha!" He turns it into a paper plane and throws it to Wilbur. "I want twelve actions now!"

"Okay, Tommy." Wilbur replies with a sly smile. The others protest, but Tommy has Wilbur wrapped around his little finger, so they won't be winning this battle.

"But! I want to split them up between us, because I'm a fucking nice person who loves women."

"Go ahead."

"My first action as King de facto of the world is to declare peace between the Moon and Mars."

"Wait, wait, you're king?? Eret, you didn't even kill him properly!!" Tubbo throws up his hands. "Ranboo, kill Tommy for me."

"Hypothetically, what if I didn't?"

"Ranboo. Are you betraying me??"

"No, no, I said hypothetically."

"Then, hypothetically, I would nuke your entire homeland and make you watch as I killed your family before your very eyes."

"Oh! Oh, no."

"And then I would torture you to death."

"Oh, man. That would not be good."

"So are you going to betray me?"

"Apparently not."

"Aw, man. I wanted to torture somebody." Tubbo sighs.

Ranboo gives Tommy a look that says 'help me'.

"You both lost your turns for talking too long." Wilbur decides. "Tommy and Eret, you both have an extra turn."

"I turn corporeal using necromancy, and I use Tubbo's soul as the energy source, draining him of life." Eret says, his cheerful eyes belying his dark tone.

"No! Ranboo, avenge meeeee!!" Tubbo cries melodramatically to the heavens.

"Oh no! I'll avenge you!!"

"I kill Ranboo." Tommy cackles at the horrified look on Ranboo's face.

"Oh, that's not good."

"How do you kill him, Tommy?" Wilbur asks.

"I stab the bastard through the fucking eyes."

"Oh. Man. That sounds painful." Ranboo winces.

"It is. You're screaming like a fucking bitch."

"Am I? Oh dang, that's not fun. Am I a ghost now?"

"Ghostboo." Tubbo laughs. "You're now Ghostboo."

"You're Toast, you don't get to mock my name."

Tommy frowns. "What's my ghost name?"

"Ghommy." Ranboo laughs. "Eret is Gheret."

"Tommy, you think we're ready for the exams?" Wilbur gathers the papers scattered across the floor.

"Fuck yeah, we are. We'll crush those bastards to dust. We'll get the highest grades of anybody in the entire school!"

++++

"What do you mean, you can't transfer me?? My grades are the worst they've ever been in years!!" Jack cries, stomping his foot on the polished wood floor of the principal's office.

"I'm sorry, duckie, but I can't let anyone transfer between classes this year." Puffy-- rumored to be a pirate in a past life and therefore always called Captain-- frowns as she flicks through Jack's portfolio. "Why did you want to be transferred, anyway?"

"No reason." Jack grumbles, then stomps out of the office, slamming the door behind himself.

"How'd it go?" Niki hops down from one of the pillars.

"Terribly. Those bastards in 3-E must've told Captain Puffy to not let anyone in. They're probably planning to take over the world now, using Techno as bait!" Jack cries, his eyes burning with furious tears.

"That's awful!" Niki wails. "What will we do?"

"What do heroes do to villains? We bomb them."

"Bomb them?"

"I don't know how yet." Jack grins, filled with burning rage. "But we'll think of something."

"I know a man." Niki says decisively. "He'll get us supplies. If they really are planning to end the world, we need to stop them."

++++

Exams roll around, and 3-E joins the the main school buildings for the tests. Quackity and Sapnap both leap on and hug Karl Jacobs. Tommy strides through the testing auditorium like he owns the place, with Wilbur glaring at everyone and Tubbo whetting his dagger with a placid smile.

Fundy watches the chaos from the sidelines, chewing on caramel taffy and bubblegum at the same time. He doesn't recognize the quiet boy huddled in a corner and writing. Before he can creep over and look at the boy's words, Eret accosts him. "Hey, man."

"Oh, hey!" Fundy grins and hugs his friend. "What've you been up to?"

"Oh, just trying to stop the world from ending and make a profit in the process, you know, the usual."

"Right, right. What's up with that, anyway? This guy, Technoblade? He must be really hard to kill if nobody's done it yet."

"We have till the year ends." Eret says gravely.

"Right. But why hasn't anybody, I don't know, tried to get in on the action?"

"The government is supposed to be keeping his location a secret." Eret adjusts his sunglasses.

"Weird." Fundy pops a bubble between his lips.

"Indeed. I know there must be a weakness. But I'm not sure what it is."

"Maybe it's something like technical immortality! Maybe he can only be killed if he lets it happen!" Fundy theorizes, chewing more intensely.

Eret grimaces. "Perhaps. Threatening his friend, Philza, directly is out of the question. But perhaps we can get the kill switch from the president."

"Woah, woah, back up!" Fundy laughs. "There's already a kill switch in his friend and the prezz hasn't thought to use that??"

"Well, he's a hostage, but- oh."

"Exactly!! If the prezz actually wanted him dead, all they'd have to do is threaten to kill this Philza dude if Techno doesn't let himself be killed!" Fundy blows another bubble and pops it with his teeth. "Damn, I'm good."

"That's assuming Technoblade would die if he allowed it. What if he can't?" Eret muses.

"He has to have some weakness. How was he even created??"

"I- I don't know."

"The only way a mutant like that could be created is through Human intervention, aka a laboratory and scientists!!" Fundy claps his hands together excitedly. "But why would scientists create a creature who can destroy the world?? Unless he can't, and this is all just a damn test."

"Hmm." Eret doesn't sound convinced.

"So, they're trying to develop immortality, and they're testing it on Technoblade-"

"Why him?" Eret asks. "And if it is a test, why here, with a bunch of students?"

"He got loose before the tests could be finalized, and they're trying to contain him again!" Fundy starts pacing. "He was a terrorist, yeah? I remember him in the news. The Acolyte."

"Blood for the blood god." Eret reminisces, paling. "That's right."

"He only ever went after important government figures! But, five years ago, he disappeared, and nobody ever heard from him again. Until now..." Fundy grins wildly. "This is amazing, I can't believe I get front row seats to a conspiracy!"

"Wait." Eret groans. "He had a partner."

"Oh! He did?"

"Technoblade was the Acolyte. But his partner was the Angel. What if that was-"

"Philza!!" Fundy cries. "Oh god, we have both of the most deadly international terrorists in my school!! Why couldn't I have worn better clothes??"

"I don't think that should be our main concern." Eret steeples his fingers. "I think we should worry more about what they're planning to do."

"I'm going to talk to Captain Puffy." Fundy decides. "Come with me?"

"I'll pass. Good luck."

"I've got the best luck in the world." Fundy crows and skips off. He glances back once, briefly, only to see Eret watching him with an unreadable expression.

++++

Tipsy, Schlatt lounges on one of the pristine metal tables. In the background, HBomb sweeps up the shards of a broken whiskey bottle, the remnants of a drunken tantrum.

"Heyyy." Schlatt greets the mercenary waiting in the doorway. "Come on in."

"How much do I get paid for my trouble?" The mercenary asks, slouching in a too-large purple hoodie and baggy pants.

"Fifteen billion, take it or leave it." Schlatt grins.

"I'll take it. But this is the last time."

"Sure, honey."

"How'd you lose him again?"

"Bitch killed half my fucking scientists." Schlatt shrugs genially, hiding his irritation. "But we've got a neutralizing agent, now." He tosses a capsule to the mercenary, who catches it and inspects it. "Inject that and he'll be as harmless as a two-ton hippo."

"That's hardly what I'd call harmless."

"Eh, semantics. He won't be immortal."

"Hmm." The mercenary pockets the neutralizer. "I'll do it. But you'd better pay me exactly what you promised, or he dies."

"C'mon, darling, what do you take me for? A scam artist?? Nah, that's not my fucking style. Return him safe and sound, and everything will be just fine." Schlatt lights a cigar, takes a deep drag, then lets it all out in a slow plume. "Do as I say and nobody gets hurt."

++++

Eret opens his buzzing phone and answers, "Hey."

"Crocodiles don't cry often." The familiar voice says coldly into their ear.

"Crocodile tears are worthless." Eret replies.

Purpled laughs on the other end. "What do you say, partner? Ready to make some dough?"

Eret grins, baring her teeth. "Always."

Chapter 7 (Next)

#eret #purpled #ranboo #tubbo #tommyinnit #wilbur soot #fundy #jack manifold #niki nihachu #no ship #fanfiction #dream smp au #dream smp #assassination classroom crossover #tw violence #tw threats #not rpf

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hineswallace48-blog · 6 years

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junker-town · 7 years

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How Notre Dame went 4-8, and why things will get better in 2017

Get your jokes in now, because the turnaround is likely on its way.

This preview originally published May 9 and has since been updated.

We never had a problem with Notre Dame officials, but after the war, some of their fans began driving us crazy. They began writing letters saying that other schools should imitate Notre Dame, not just in winning, but by winning absolutely cleanly and honestly. Sure, who doesn't want to do that? But no one could get players like Frank Leahy could...

Also the fans said that Notre Dame sets an example that other schools could follow if those schools didn't like cheating so much. I really got angry when they started applying that to Purdue, as if we [Purdue] cheated.

— Lafayette Journal & Courier sports editor Gordon Graham, Onward to Victory: The Creation of Modern College Sports

One of the things I enjoyed about writing my latest book, The 50 Best* College Football Teams of All Time (and hey, if you don’t enjoy your own book, who will?) is how you can trace how perceptions of certain programs changed over time. Notre Dame is the best example.

There are two Notre Dame teams in the book (which, in anti-social fashion, isn’t actually about the best teams at all): the 1924 team that won the Irish’s first Rose Bowl and the 1947 team that is typically called one of the most talented of all time. In between the first and the second team, all of college football began to look at Notre Dame in a completely different light.

The 1924 team was a plucky squad, abused in some stadiums for the school’s Catholic backbone and going out of its way to put a good face forward for both school and religion. Look at these wholesome boys who will pray before the game and help you up after bowling you over!

The 1947 team was, by any account, no less wholesome. But the Irish were the heavyweight champion of the world by this point. Their connections with the Naval academy had helped to allow the school to maintain a high level of talent during World War II, and with loose postwar transfer rules and the name of NOTRE DAME lording over the sport, Frank Leahy was able to amass so much talent in South Bend that third stringers who never saw the field would find success in professional football.

Plus, as with any program or coach who purports to represent more than just football, the Irish brought some pretty irrepressible fans with them as well.

All of this is a long way to say that, even seven decades after that 1947 team and its fans lorded Irish perfection over all the land, when Notre Dame suffers a frustrating season — say, losing a ton of close games on the way to a 4-8 record — fans of other college football teams are going to enjoy it immensely. That’s just how things go.

Fun fact: Brian Kelly’s Notre Dame Fighting Irish went 4-8 last season. It really happened. Buy rings if you want. Definitely make posters and memes. Lord knows plenty on this little corner of the Internet have. But don’t expect it to happen twice.

I have long noted how, when you look at a given year’s S&P+ rankings, you can pretty quickly point out the teams that are likely to rise and fall the next year (from a records standpoint) by simply looking at the standout records. My favorite example is 2011, when both 7-6 Texas A&M (eighth in S&P+) and 8-5 Notre Dame (11th) seemed out of place, ranking much higher than their records suggested they should have. The next year, the two teams went a combined 23-3.

It doesn’t always work out in such a clean manner, but the bottom line is, sometimes your record doesn’t match your on-paper quality. That usually rectifies itself quickly.

That Notre Dame went 4-8 last year is certainly unique; it was only the second time since 1963 that the Irish won fewer than five games. The Gerry Faust era of the early-1980s is notorious for its mediocrity, but Faust’s Irish never went worse than 5-6.

That the Irish went 4-8 with a pretty good team is even more remarkable.

Best teams to finish with four or fewer wins (per S&P+), 2005-16:

2016 Notre Dame (4-8, plus-10.5 S&P+ rating, 26th)

2007 Washington (4-9, plus-9.8, 26th)

2013 Florida (4-8, plus-9.7, 33rd)

2005 Arkansas (4-7, plus-7.5, 33rd)

2012 Arkansas (4-8, plus-7.4, 39th)

2009 Virginia (3-9, plus-6.8, 35th)

2013 TCU (4-8, plus-5.1, 50th)

2008 Arkansas (4-8, plus-4.8, 41st)

2005 Washington State (4-7, plus-4.3, 46th)

2008 Baylor (4-8, plus-4.3, 42nd)

This list is both a warning sign and reason for hope. Of the nine non-Notre Dame teams above, five saw their records improve, sometimes dramatically, the next season.

In 2014, TCU’s Gary Patterson made some assistant coach changes, freshened up his offense, and went 12-1.

2009 Arkansas improved to 8-5 in Bobby Petrino’s second year in charge.

2006 Arkansas improved to 10-4.

2014 Florida improved to 7-5.

2006 Washington State improved to 6-6.

2009 Baylor didn’t improve because of a quarterback injury, but 2010 Baylor improved to 7-6, and 2011 Baylor soared.

At the same time, of the seven non-Notre Dame teams on the list that didn’t dump their coaches immediately, four had done so within two years. The bad feelings a season like this engenders are hard to overcome.

2016 in review

2016 Notre Dame statistical profile.

Here’s the most positive spin I can put on last season: Kelly didn’t lose the team. The Fighting Irish stuck together well enough that they continued to lose close games to good teams deep into the season. Sometimes a team collapses; Notre dame did not. In fact, it did the opposite.

First 4 games (1-3): Avg. percentile performance: 60% (~top 50) | Yards per play: ND 6.4, Opp 6.2 (plus-0.2)

Next 4 games (2-2): Avg. percentile performance: 74% (~top 35) | Yards per play: ND 5.6, Opp 4.4 (plus-1.2)

Last 4 games (1-3): Avg. percentile performance: 78% (~top 30) | Yards per play: ND 6.2, Opp 5.6 (plus-0.6)

After a dreadful defensive start, Kelly fired defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder four games into the season. That he hired him in the first place was a bit of an indictment, but there’s no question the defense improved after the change. The offense, meanwhile, remained mostly steady aside from a monsoon-addled 10-3 loss to NC State.

Notre Dame played at a top-30 level or so for most of the last two-thirds of the season. But the losses continued — by seven points to Stanford, by one point to Navy, by three points to Virginia Tech. The season finished with the first not-so-close loss (45-27 to USC), but even in that game the Irish created more scoring chances and won the field position battle, creating a decent opportunity for a win that didn’t come.

Kelly has had a fascinating relationship with close games at Notre Dame. His Irish lost five of their first seven one-possession finishes, then won 15 of 18. They lost three in a row and won five of six and have now lost eight of nine. Do the Irish have another drastic change in direction left?

Offense

Full advanced stats glossary.

Todd Graham has struggled the last couple of seasons as Arizona State head coach; after going 20-7 in 2013-14, he’s gone just 11-14 since. Defensive collapse has been the major cause — ASU ranked 114th in Def. S&P+ in 2016 — but losing assistants hasn’t helped.

Graham has churned out aggressive, speed-happy assistants throughout his career; he employed Chad Morris (now SMU’s head coach) and Gus Malzahn (Auburn) long ago at Tulsa, and it’s probably not a coincidence that his ASU offense regressed a bit in 2016 following the departure of longtime assistants Mike Norvell and Chip Long to Memphis. Norvell became head coach, Long became offensive coordinator, and despite losing all-world quarterback Paxton Lynch to the NFL, the Tigers continued to play at a top-40 level offensively last fall.

Long only has the single year of coordinator experience, but you could see how Kelly might be attracted to him as a potential energy booster.

With a pass-first attack, Memphis ranked 46th in Adj. Pace and excelled at creating one-on-one matchups and solo tackle opportunities. A trio of rushers (including two freshmen) combined for 1,838 yards at 5.9 per carry, and the combination of quarterback Riley Ferguson and receiver Anthony Miller combined to connect 95 times for 1,434 yards.

One could see similar numbers from Notre Dame this year. Running back Josh Adams combined decent efficiency (42 percent of carries gaining five-plus yards) with above average explosiveness, junior backup Dexter Williams was a bit all-or-nothing, and four-star freshman C.J. Holmes could be ready to play a small role.

Adams and company will be running behind a well-seasoned line that ranked 18th in Adj. Line Yards and returns five four of last year’s starters. Three of the four have started for two years, and the line could get a boost from young talent in the form of redshirt freshman blue-chippers Tommy Kraemer and Liam Eichenberg.

Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

Equanimeous St. Brown

Meanwhile, it’s easy to think that the Brandon Wimbush-to-Equanimeous St. Brown combination could thrive. St. Brown averaged 10.9 yards per target as a first-time No. 1 target, combining big-time efficiency (57 percent success rate) with high-end explosiveness (16.6 yards per catch).

Most of last year’s battery mates — sophomore Kevin Stepherson, junior C.J. Sanders, tight end Durham Smythe — return, as does tight end Alizé Mack, who averaged 10.6 yards per target in 2015 before missing last year because of academics. And if the spring is any indication, four-star sophomores Miles Boykin and Chase Claypool could be ready to play steady roles as well. [Update: Notre Dame also added Cameron Smith, a former 596-yard receiver at Arizona State, as a grad transfer.]

This offense should have all the pieces Long craves for creating mismatches and big plays. Wimbush’s only real experience so far came in going 3-for-5 passing and ripping off a 58-yard touchdown run against UMass in 2015. His athleticism is obvious, and if he’s ready to live up to his blue-chip status, this offense will hum. That’s still an “if” until proven otherwise, though.

Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

Brandon Wimbush

Defense

It’s even easier to see what Kelly saw in Mike Elko. The longtime Dave Clawson assistant produced high-caliber defenses as Bowling Green defensive coordinator (31st in Def. S&P+ in 2012, 52nd in 2013) and found immediate, sustained success following Clawson to Wake Forest. While Wake’s offense hasn’t been good in what feels like decades, the Demon Deacons ranked 28th in Def. S&P+ in 2014 and 22nd in 2016.

With an experienced front seven and an ultra-young secondary, Wake created havoc up front and played things safe in the back. The Deacs also had one of the best red zone defenses in the country, allowing just 3.8 points per scoring opportunity (first downs inside the 40).

Elko inherits a defense that was so young last year that it’s still pretty young. He’ll be relying on sophomores in the front (tackles Jerry Tillery and Elijah Taylor, end Daelin Hayes) and back (corners Julian Love, Donte Vaughn, Troy Pride Jr., and Shaun Crawford, safeties Devin Studstill and Jalen Elliott). And while there are blue-chippers galore on the roster, few of them reside in the secondary. [Update: Star Navy transfer Alohi Gilman would compete for a starting safety job, if his unique eligibility waiver request went through.]

Still, this was a legitimately strong pass defense in the middle of the season, from when VanGorder was fired until the last two games against Virginia Tech and USC.

First 4 games: 64% completion rate, 14.3 yards per completion, 154.2 passer rating

Next 6 games: 57% completion rate, 10.8 yards per completion, 110.7 passer rating

Last 2 games: 69% completion rate, 11.5 yards per completion, 155.7 passer rating

Granted, that midseason sample includes the monsoon game against NC State and the Army and Navy games, but there’s still obvious potential here, especially the Irish can keep the same first string on the field for a longer period of time. Eleven different DBs averaged at least 0.8 tackles per game last year; only six played in all 12 games. That’s a sign of a rotation that is larger than a coach wanted it to be.

Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

Drue Tranquill

The front seven only has to replace three contributors, but end Isaac Rochell, tackle Jarron Jones, and linebacker James Onwualu were maybe the Irish’s three best havoc guys last year, combining for 29.5 tackles for loss, six sacks, and 10 passes defensed. The linebacking corps is particularly experienced, and between Nyles Morgan, converted safety Drue Tranquill, Greer Martini, and Asmar Bilal, he should have the attackers he needs there.

Firing VanGorder had an immediate effect last year. After allowing 200-plus rushing yards in three of their first four games, the Irish only did so three times in the last eight, and two of those instances were against option-heavy Army and Navy, who combined to pass for just 61 yards.

Even without Rochell, Jones, and Onwualu, this should be a strong front seven. The question is, how quickly can Elko come to trust the secondary? I would expect him to play things conservatively in the back, as he did at Wake.

Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

Nyles Morgan

Special Teams

Special teams didn’t really help the cause. After ranking 35th in Special Teams S&P+ in 2015, the Irish fell to 80th because of shaky place-kicking range and woeful punt coverage. Tyler Newsome averaged a booming 43.5 yards per punt (26th in FBS), but opponents averaged 15.1 yards per return (123rd).

Ace return man C.J. Sanders was able to make up some of that difference, but if Newsome can avoid outkicking his coverage quite so much, this could theoretically be a top-50 unit even if kicker Justin Yoon’s range doesn’t change much.

2017 outlook

2017 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 2-Sep Temple 67 15.5 81% 9-Sep Georgia 20 3.8 59% 16-Sep at Boston College 76 14.7 80% 23-Sep at Michigan State 44 7.1 66% 30-Sep Miami (Ohio) 88 23.9 92% 7-Oct at North Carolina 38 5.7 63% 21-Oct USC 7 -4.7 39% 28-Oct N.C. State 27 7.8 67% 4-Nov Wake Forest 64 14.8 80% 11-Nov at Miami 18 -1.3 47% 18-Nov Navy 71 18.3 85% 25-Nov at Stanford 12 -6.3 36%

Projected S&P+ Rk 17 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 24 / 25 Projected wins 8.0 Five-Year S&P+ Rk 14.3 (9) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 10 / 8 2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* -4 / 0.7 2016 TO Luck/Game -1.9 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 57% (58%, 56%) 2016 Second-order wins (difference) 7.2 (-3.2)

In terms of trust with the fan base, it’s possible that having such a bad year with such a demonstrably solid team is harder to overcome than a random collapse like, say, 2016 Michigan State’s. Notre Dame lost close games in about every way a team can lose a close game. It’s a new year, and Brian Kelly has two new coordinators with him to right the ship. But until the Irish indeed turn things around, then they remain the absurd underachiever that went 4-8 last year.

Still, a turnaround is realistic at worst and likely at best. Notre Dame dealt with preseason turnover in the defensive backfield and was juggling freshmen and sophomores in the back all year. The Irish encountered setback after setback but were as good in November as they were in September. Kelly brought in an exciting new defensive coordinator and an offensive coordinator with energy to burn.

It’s really easy to talk yourself into a significant Irish bounce back in 2017, in other words, and the numbers have your back if you choose to do so. S&P+ projects Notre Dame 17th in the country, and despite a schedule that features five opponents projected 27th or better (and only one projected worse than 76th), the Irish are the projected favorite in nine games and are expected to win eight on average.

This is all well and good. But it’s hard to forget that Notre Dame was projected 11th, with a likely 9-3 record, last year. The Irish underachieved the rating by a little and the record by a lot. And seasons that are disappointing to this degree are hard to overcome.

I wrote in last year’s preview that, in overcoming quarterback injury and remaining in the Playoff hunt all the way to the end of the year, Brian Kelly had pulled off his best coaching performance in 2015. He followed that up with his worst. His recent performances have flipped as significantly as his close-game fortune. Can they both flip back this fall?

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junker-town · 7 years

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How Notre Dame went 4-8, and why things will get better in 2017

Get your jokes in now, because the turnaround is likely on its way.

— Lafayette Journal & Courier sports editor Gordon Graham, Onward to Victory: The Creation of Modern College Sports

Plus, as with any program or coach who purports to represent more than just football, the Irish brought some pretty irrepressible fans with them as well.

It doesn’t always work out in such a clean manner, but the bottom line is, sometimes your record doesn’t match your on-paper quality. That usually rectifies itself quickly.

That the Irish went 4-8 with a pretty good team is even more remarkable.

Best teams to finish with four or fewer wins (per S&P+), 2005-16:

2016 Notre Dame (4-8, plus-10.5 S&P+ rating, 26th)

2007 Washington (4-9, plus-9.8, 26th)

2013 Florida (4-8, plus-9.7, 33rd)

2005 Arkansas (4-7, plus-7.5, 33rd)

2012 Arkansas (4-8, plus-7.4, 39th)

2009 Virginia (3-9, plus-6.8, 35th)

2013 TCU (4-8, plus-5.1, 50th)

2008 Arkansas (4-8, plus-4.8, 41st)

2005 Washington State (4-7, plus-4.3, 46th)

2008 Baylor (4-8, plus-4.3, 42nd)

This list is both a warning sign and reason for hope. Of the nine non-Notre Dame teams above, five saw their records improve, sometimes dramatically, the next season.

In 2014, TCU’s Gary Patterson made some assistant coach changes, freshened up his offense, and went 12-1.

2009 Arkansas improved to 8-5 in Bobby Petrino’s second year in charge.

2006 Arkansas improved to 10-4.

2014 Florida improved to 7-5.

2006 Washington State improved to 6-6.

2009 Baylor didn’t improve because of a quarterback injury, but 2010 Baylor improved to 7-6, and 2011 Baylor soared.

2016 in review

2016 Notre Dame statistical profile.

First 4 games (1-3): Avg. percentile performance: 60% (~top 50) | Yards per play: ND 6.4, Opp 6.2 (plus-0.2)

Next 4 games (2-2): Avg. percentile performance: 74% (~top 35) | Yards per play: ND 5.6, Opp 4.4 (plus-1.2)

Last 4 games (1-3): Avg. percentile performance: 78% (~top 30) | Yards per play: ND 6.2, Opp 5.6 (plus-0.6)

Offense

Full advanced stats glossary.

Long only has the single year of coordinator experience, but you could see how Kelly might be attracted to him as a potential energy booster.

Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

Equanimeous St. Brown

Most of last year’s battery mates — sophomore Kevin Stepherson, junior C.J. Sanders, tight end Durham Smythe — return, as does tight end Alizé Jones, who averaged 10.6 yards per target in 2015 before missing last year because of academics. And if the spring is any indication, four-star sophomores Miles Boykin and Chase Claypool could be ready to play steady roles as well.

Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

Brandon Wimbush

Defense

Still, this was a legitimately strong pass defense in the middle of the season, from when VanGorder was fired until the last two games against Virginia Tech and USC.

First 4 games: 64% completion rate, 14.3 yards per completion, 154.2 passer rating

Next 6 games: 57% completion rate, 10.8 yards per completion, 110.7 passer rating

Last 2 games: 69% completion rate, 11.5 yards per completion, 155.7 passer rating

Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

Drue Tranquill

Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

Nyles Morgan

Special Teams

2017 outlook

2017 Schedule & Projection Factors

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junker-town · 8 years

Text

CMU football goes 6-6 or so every year, but does it dramatically!

When will that change?

If you are a casual college football fan, you know Central Michigan for one of two plays: the Hail Mary-Lateral play ...

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... or the other Hail Mary-Lateral play.

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At worst, they are two of the five best plays of the last three seasons. (Granted, the second one shouldn’t have happened, but so what? It did.) And the same quarterback and lateraling receiver were behind both.

There are worse things than being known as the Hail Mary-Lateral team. You could be the team that allowed them. You could be the team that almost pulled off something incredible.

And if you’re Central Michigan, without them, you’d be known for being the most perfectly average team in the MAC.

CMU’s record over the last five years: 7-6, 6-6, 7-6, 7-6, and 6-7. The coach changes (John Bonamego replaced Dan Enos after 2014), and the quality changes — in this five-year span, the Chippewas have ranked everywhere from 78th to 115th in S&P+ — but the record does not.

That can be a good thing. After all, you could be in a 3-9 rut. Going to a bowl game every year is not the worst fate.

Still, this is Central Michigan, the MAC’s team of the 2000s. From 2006-09, under Brian Kelly and then Butch Jones, the Chippewas won three MAC titles. They finished with 12 wins and an AP top 25 ranking in 2009. CMU fans probably aren’t in this simply for bowl trips. (That said, they’ve gotten to go to the Bahamas and Miami Beach within the last three years.)

Because 2015 was surprisingly impressive, 2016 was surprisingly disappointing. I set the bar low for the Chippewas after their sudden coaching change; Enos left late in the 2014-15 coaching carousel, and the Chippewas didn’t actually have a head coach on National Signing Day. But despite the strange turnover, and despite Bonamego fighting a cancer battle, CMU was legitimately solid.

In terms of S&P+, this was CMU's best team since 2009. After a pair of rebuilding years (6-18 in 2010-11), Enos' Chippewas rebounded to reach bowl eligibility three times. They won the Little Caesars Bowl against Western Kentucky in 2012, then nearly pulled off the greatest comeback in bowl history, falling to WKU in an epic Bahamas Bowl in 2014.

They also never topped 89th in S&P+ during Enos' time. In Bonamego's first year, with countless reasons for tamped-down expectations, they ranked 78th.

In a mulligan year, CMU made a statement. And now the tables have turned: The Chippewas return a 3,800-yard passer and his top five wideouts, plus most of the defensive two-deep. A year after Bonamego was challenged to not only manage a football team but also manage cancer, now we find out if he can manage expectations.

Indeed, CMU seemed to have a lot going for it in 2016 and began 3-0 with not only the crazy win over Oklahoma State, but also easy wins over Presbyterian and UNLV. And they were tied with Virginia early in the fourth quarter in Charlottesville.

From there, things went awry. UVA scored three touchdowns in five minutes to surge to a 49-35 win, and CMU won only three of its last 10 games. Losses to WMU and Toledo ended any hopes of a MAC West title run, and losses to Kent State, Miami (Ohio), and EMU brought into serious question CMU’s standing in the conference. The season finished up with a dreadful 55-10 loss to Tulsa in the Miami Beach Bowl.

CMU fell from 78th to 99th despite an experienced two-deep and avoiding an inordinate injuries. And now the Chippewas have to replace Rush, who threw for nearly 13,000 yards in a Chippewa uniform.

Granted, the turnover has been kept to a minimum. The top five receiving targets are all back, as are five offensive linemen who started at least eight games last year, three of five primary defensive linemen, two starting linebackers, and three-fourths of the starting secondary. There is enough continuity here to expect decent things if a quarterback emerges, and the QB candidates are intriguing.

Still, the expectations game is different now. Was 2015 a happy outlier? Was 2016 an unhappy exception? Where should we be setting the bar for CMU moving forward? The easy answer is, “Duh, six losses or so.” But it’s probably more complicated.

2016 in review

2016 CMU statistical profile.

When you start 3-0 and end 3-7, it’s easy to come up with a sort of “They started strong and collapsed” narrative. But while it’s true that the Chippewas failed to meet the bar they set over the first three games (average percentile performance: 73 percent over the first three games and 30 percent thereafter), there were plenty of ups and downs during the “collapse.”

The defense was mostly awful against Virginia and WMU, then played well for three weeks, then gave up 27 points to Kent State (bad) and 37 to Miami (Ohio) (awful). The Chips defended well against Ohio, then packed it in from there.

On offense, things were more stable, without quite the same upside or downside as the defense, but there were still strange ups (6.1 yards per play vs. Toledo) and downs (4.8 vs. Kent State).

There were some injuries. Sixth-year senior, 2015 leading receiver, and lateral expert Jesse Kroll only made it four games, there was in-season turnover at safety, etc. Still, compared to others, it wasn’t unmanageable. And yet, CMU was a team that struggled to establish consistency.

Offense

Full advanced stats glossary.

Just as CMU had to undergo an awkward, late coaching change two years ago, it underwent two offensive coordinator changes in recent months. Longtime play-caller Morris Watts retired and was replaced by running backs coach Gino Guidugli ... who left to become Cincinnati’s running backs coach weeks later. In his second go-round, Bonamego brought in former Northern Michigan head coach Chris Ostrowsky.

Ostrowsky was let go by NMU last fall; he couldn’t find traction as head coach at NMU, averaging 3.6 wins over five seasons, but offense was rarely the problem for the Wildcats. Even during 2016’s 3-8 campaign, they averaged 30.9 points per game.

Some quick basics from NMU’s 2016 offense:

Counting sacks as rush attempts, NMU threw 37 times per game and rushed 30 times per game — slightly pass-first and decidedly not up-tempo.

NMU quarterbacks completed 57 percent of their passes at 11.1 yards per completion. Accuracy was an issue, but considering the Wildcats took just 11 sacks and threw just six interceptions all year, it’s clear the intent was quick, safe passing and using the pass as an extension of the run game in a lot of ways. With a couple of game-breaking receivers in 2015, the averages were much better: 13.5 yards per completion with a 66 percent completion rate and still only 13 sacks and six picks.

NMU induced solo tackles on 72.6 percent of plays; at the FBS level, that would have ranked 82nd in 2016.

So basically: below-average tempo, slight pass-first tendencies, no extreme lean between spread and power, shifts in aggressiveness based on talent of personnel.

What about the personnel? There’s plenty to like. Receiver Corey Willis did a hell of a Titus Davis impression in 2016, combining an explosive receiver’s averages (15.2 yards per catch) with a possession receiver’s catch rate (67 percent). Senior Mark Chapman (13.5 per catch, 65 percent) nearly matched Willis’ averages, as did sophomore and former star recruit Brandon Childress (14.2, 64 percent). That’s a hell of a trio, and tight end Tyler Conklin is a decent weapon as well.

Then you’ve got perhaps the most intriguing weapon outside of Willis: Devon Spalding has yet to find consistency, but his averages are exciting. He rushed six fewer times than Jahray Hayes last year but gained 272 more yards on the ground; he also caught 31 passes. When he was rolling, CMU was hard to stop.

Of course, he needs to roll more. In CMU wins, he averaged 5.9 yards per carry; in losses, 5.0. He rushed 45 times for 281 yards against Ball State and NIU, then just 38 times for 211 yards the rest of the way.

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Devon Spalding

A line that did a great job of not moving backwards in 2016 — 13th in power success rate, 59th in stuff rate — more or less returns five starters. Six guys ended up starting between eight and 12 games, and while guard Kenny Rogers is gone, there’s lots of experience.

So that leaves the quarterback position. A minor one, that. Longtime incumbent Cooper Rush has finally graduated, and last year’s backup, Tommy Lazzaro, threw ... zero passes last year, one fewer than the punter.

This QB battle is one of nearly complete unknowns, but there’s reason for optimism. Lazzaro, (who did throw for 2,200 yards at Dodge City CC in 2015) sophomores Tony Poljan and Jake Johnson, and redshirt freshman Austin Hergott are all former three-star recruits, per the 247Sports Composite. Poljan was a mid-three at that.

Then there’s also the ringer. Former blue-chipper Shane Morris got tossed around like a rag doll at the end of the Brady Hoke era at Michigan. But in January, he announced he would be coming to CMU as a graduate transfer. His career stats are dreadful — 47-for-92, 434 yards, no touchdowns, five interceptions, a 79.8 career passer rating — but most of that came in a no-win situation. At worst, he’ll set a baseline for Poljan or Lazzaro to try to exceed.

Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Shane Morris

Defense

CMU’s offense was about the same in 2016 as it was in 2015; that was a little bit disappointing considering what the Chips returned, but there wasn’t regression.

There was regression on defense. After pressing the right buttons in 2015, coordinator Greg Colby saw his unit fall back to 2014 levels: CMU ranked 84th in Def. S&P+ in 2014, rose to 58th in 2015, then dropped to 88th.

There was no single area where CMU’s regression was particularly stark — it was steady across the board.

IsoPPP rank: 49th in 2015, 81st in 2016

Success Rate rank: 58th in 2015, 73rd in 2016

Field position created by defense: 54th in 2015, 108th in 2016

Points per scoring opportunity rank: 54th in 2015, 96th in 2016

At first glance, depth appeared to be an issue for CMU. The Chippewas didn’t regress on a per-quarter basis, but this was a tight rotation — only five linemen, four linebackers, and six defensive backs made more than 10 tackles. Part of that is because of a lack of injury (those 15 players missed a combined 10 games, which is about as good as you could hope for), but either because of philosophy or a lack of trust in the backups, Colby kept the rotation small.

Quite a bit of that rotation returns. Ends Joe Ostman and Mike Danna combined for 18 tackles for loss and 10.5 sacks last year, and Malik Fountain was a wrecking ball against the run, recording 10 tackles for loss (only one of which was a sack).

Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

Malik Fountain

The top three cornerbacks also return: Josh Cox, Amari Coleman, and Sean Bunting combined for nine picks and 25 breakups.

There are question marks at tackle and safety, though. Kelby Latta and Jabari Dean are gone from the middle of the line, and the next leading tackler at the position was Nate Brisson-Fast, with just 7.5 tackles. 310-pound sophomore D’Andre Dill is a potentially dynamic play-maker — he made just four solo tackles last year, but three of them were behind the line — but he still barely played. A small rotation means you just don’t know that much about the successors.

Meanwhile, safeties Tony Annese and Winslow Chapman depart as well. Junior Otis Kearney played a big role, and Gary Jones and Zach Oakley got a little bit of action.

Bonamego signed some interesting prospects at both of these question-mark positions in February; three-star tackle Johnathan Berghorst could be asked to play a role pretty early on, as could three-star safeties Devonni Reed and Troy Brown.

Regardless, there are just enough known quantities to assume there won’t be any further regression. It’s just a question of whether this unit meets its potential better than 2015’s defense did.

Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports

Joe Ostman

Special Teams

Field position was a constant drag. The Chips ranked just 102nd, with a field position margin of minus-2.8 yards per drive. Ranking 83rd in punt success rate, 92nd in kick return success rate, and 105th in kickoff success rate created constant field-flipping issues. Meanwhile, kicker Brian Eavey made only five of nine field goals inside of 40 yards and three of eight longer than 40.

Translation: CMU was really, really bad at special teams last year — 124th overall in Special Teams S&P+. Eavey’s gone, which might not be the worst thing, but there are lots of questions. CMU gave away a couple of points per game in special teams, and there’s no reason to assume that changes.

2017 outlook

2017 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 31-Aug Rhode Island NR 33.1 97% 9-Sep at Kansas 107 -0.1 50% 16-Sep at Syracuse 60 -14.3 20% 23-Sep Miami (Ohio) 88 0.4 51% 30-Sep at Boston College 76 -8.8 30% 7-Oct at Ohio 103 -0.9 48% 14-Oct Toledo 59 -9.6 29% 21-Oct at Ball State 90 -4.2 40% 1-Nov at Western Michigan 74 -9.2 30% 8-Nov Eastern Michigan 96 2.4 55% 14-Nov at Kent State 123 4.3 60% 24-Nov Northern Illinois 86 0.1 50%

Projected S&P+ Rk 97 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 100 / 92 Projected wins 5.6 Five-Year S&P+ Rk -7.3 (99) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 106 / 109 2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* -6 / -7.9 2016 TO Luck/Game +0.7 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 67% (60%, 74%) 2016 Second-order wins (difference) 5.2 (0.8)

CMU ranked 99th in S&P+ last year and won six games. S&P+ projects the Chippewas to rank 97th in 2017 and ... win six games. That makes it feel like the same-old, same-old, and maybe that’s what we get from Bonamego’s third squad.

The schedule is fascinating, though. There is an almost sure win against Rhode Island (projected win probability: 97 percent), and there are likely losses to Syracuse (20 percent), BC (30 percent), Toledo (29 percent), and WMU (30 percent).

The other seven games are all between 40 and 60 percent. With a decent quarterback and some breaks, this goes from a six-win team to, in theory, an eight- or nine-win team. But if the new coordinator-QB combo doesn’t stick and a thin defense suffers injuries, well, there’s only one sure win on the slate.

In terms of a range of outcomes, the combination of schedule and question marks makes CMU a fascinating team. Even if the most likely result (six wins) is familiar.

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