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What is an Army Division

By GlobalSecurity - Division

The Army consists of four corps and 18 divisions. In the active Army, there are ten divisions: two forward deployed in Europe, one in Korea, one in Hawaii, and six in the continental United States. The remaining eight are Army National Guard Divisions. The U.S. Army had 28 Divisions - 18 active and 10 National Guard -- in 1991. Eight Army divisions were deployed to the Persian Gulf, just as eight Army divisions had been deployed to Korea four decades earlier. The Reagan administration boosted the Army from 14 to 16 divisions during the mid-1980s. The division is the Army's largest tactical organization that trains and fights as a combined arms team. It is a self-sustaining force capable of independent operations. The division is composed of varying numbers and types of combat, combat support, and combat service support units. The mix and types of combat units determine whether a division is armored, mechanized, infantry light infantry, airborne, or air assault. Divisions are fixed combined arms organizations of eight to 11 maneuver battalions, three to four field artillery battalions, and other combat, combat support, and combat service support units. They are capable of performing any tactical mission, and designed to be largely self-sustaining. Divisions are the basic units of maneuver at the tactical level, and possess great flexibility. They tailor their brigades and attached forces for specific combat missions. The division base, which is essentially the same in all types of divisions, includes the command and control, reconnaissance, combat support such as air defense, intelligence, aviation, signal, engineers, and combat service support elements. Divisions are normally commanded by Major Generals. Capable of performing any tactical mission and designed to be largely self-sustaining, divisions are the basic units of maneuver at the tactical level. Divisions possess great flexibility. They tailor their brigades and attached forces for specific combat missions. Their combat support and combat service support battalions and separate companies may be attached to or placed in support of brigades for the performance of a particular mission. Divisions perform major tactical operations for the corps and can conduct sustained battles and engagements. They almost never direct actions at the operational level (campaigns or major operations), but they may be used by corps to perform tasks of operational importance. These may include exploiting tactical advantages to seize objectives in depth, moving to gain contact with enemy forces, or moving by air to seize objectives behind an enemy force. The Army's organizational concept embraces six types of divisions - infantry, light infantry, mechanized infantry, armored, airborne, and air assault. The divisions are formed by adding a varying number and mixtures of combat maneuver battalions-infantry, light infantry, mechanized infantry, tank, airborne, or air assault-to a common division base. The division base, which is essentially the same in all types of divisions, includes the command and control, reconnaissance, combat support such as artistry, air defense, intelligence, aviation, signal, engineers, and combat service support element. Among the command and control elements are brigade headquarters which control the tactical operations of several attached maneuver battalions as determined by the division commander. Light forces -- airborne, air assault, and light infantry divisions -- are tailored for forcible-entry operations and for operations on restricted terrain, like mountains, jungles, and urban areas. Heavy forces -- armored and mechanized divisions equipped with Abrams tanks, Bradley fighting vehicles, Apache attack helicopters, and the Paladin field artillery system -- are trained and equipped for operations against armies employing modern tanks and armored fighting vehicles. Light and heavy forces can operate independently or in combination, providing the mix of combat power needed for specific contingencies. Combat service support is provided by a Division Support Command (DISCOM). It provides supply, transportation, field maintenance, medical support, and administrative services to the division. DISCOMs are organized differently to best satisfy the support needs of each division. Divisions are supported administratively and logistically by Corps Support Commands (COSCOM) which are responsible for the centralized management of supplies, maintenance, and movement of personnel and materiel beyond the capability of the divisions. The theater Army, combining several principles of modern service management and automatic baa processing, completes the functional organization a all levels. This ensures the maximum degree of responsiveness, efficiency, and economy in providing combat service support. The Division Support Command [DISCOM] is the source of division-level logistics and HSS in the division. Although the division stresses area support, the DISCOM also provides CSS on a unit support basis and a task-support basis. The DISCOM, when augmented as required, may furnish area support to non-divisional units in the division area. Unit support is designated to a unit or units such as a maneuver brigade. In task support, the DISCOM furnishes a specific type or amount of a DISCOM element's support capability to designated units or an area to accomplish identified tasks. Communications systems are essential for gathering and disseminating data. Personnel need them to plan and execute operations. Commanders use them to perform C2 functions and to supervise performance. In FY 90 the Army had six armored (four active component and two reserve component) and eight mechanized (six active component and two reserve component) divisions. An armored division was removed from the active component in FY 91. On 15 September 1991, the 2d Armored Division stationed at Fort Hood, Texas, was dropped from the active force, although formal inactivation was postponed until a future date. The 2d Brigade, 2d Armored Division, was inactivated in August 1990. The division's 1st Brigade, the famed "Tiger Brigade," attached to US Marine Corps forces during Operation DESERT STORM, was inactivated on 20 May 1991, and the officers and men became the 3d Brigade, 1st Cavalry Division. The 3d Brigade, 2d Armored Division, remained in Germany and had not been officially redesignated and assigned to another unit by the end of FY 91. Another heavy unit, the 2d Brigade, 4th Infantry Division (Mechanized), was inactivated on 15 December 1989 as part of the budget cuts required under the QUICKSILVER program. The 4th Infantry Division was targeted for the cut since it was the only heavy division in CONUS with three brigades. To compensate for the loss, the division was assigned the 116th Cavalry Brigade of the Idaho National Guard as a roundout brigade (Table 3). QUICKSILVER also caused a restructuring of the separate 194th Armored Brigade to a 1,068-man, armor-heavy task force that consisted of a headquarters and headquarters company, three armor companies, two mechanized infantry companies, a reserve component armor company, a field artillery battery, a supply and transport company, and a support battalion headquarters and headquarters detachment. The restructuring was completed on 30 September 1990. On 16 December 1992 when the Army inactivated the 5th Infantry Division (Mechanized) at Fort Polk, Louisiana, and transferred its personnel and equipment to the 2d Armored Division. Except for a brigade at Fort Hood, Texas, only the Headquarters, 2d Armored Division, had been active (at zero strength) since the end of FY 1991. The resources from the 5th Division's two inactivated brigades were used to activate the 2d Armored Division's two remaining maneuver brigades at Fort Polk. These two brigades prepared for a move and a permanent change of station to join their sister brigade, because the entire division is scheduled to be stationed at Fort Hood. By the end of FY 1993 the Army consisted of 4 corps, 14 active Army divisions, and 8 National Guard divisions. The Secretary of Defense's October 1993 Bottom-Up Review (BUR) recommended that the Army continue to reduce to ten fully organized active Army divisions. The BUR also recommended cutting reserve component force structure to five divisions and thirty-seven combat brigades. Fifteen of these brigades would be "enhanced" to increase readiness and improve their ability to deploy throughout the world. Following the BUR, the Army reorganized its active combat division structure. Two division headquarters were eliminated, thus reducing the number of active divisions from 12 to 10 as specified in the BUR. Another significant change was that the Army discontinued its reliance on reserve component "round-up" or "round-out" units to bring the active divisions to full combat strength for wartime deployment. Instead, the Army determined that each of the remaining 10 combat divisions would comprise 3 fully active ground maneuver brigades. This decision was endorsed by the Secretary of Defense during development of the BUR out of concern that relying on reserve brigades could slow down a U.S. response to aggression. Therefore, as a result of the BUR, only two active maneuver brigades were eliminated from Army force structure -- 12 combat divisions with a combined total of 32 active brigades were reduced to 10 divisions with 30 active brigades. Also, the Army decided that all 10 remaining divisions would be authorized 100 percent of their wartime military personnel requirement. Three Army divisions were reflagged as the Army restructured from 12 to 10 active divisions. The 2nd Armored Division at Fort Hood, Texas, was redesignated as the 4th Infantry Div., and the 24th Inf. Div. was redesignated as the 3rd Inf. Div. The 3rd Inf. Div., stationed in Germany, was redesignated as the 1st Inf. Div. The redesignations occured during fiscal 1996. The Army's restructuring plan was announced in December 1994. It called for the inactivation of the headquarters and division support units of the 1st Inf. Div. at Fort Riley, Kan., and the 4th Inf. Div. at Fort Carson, Colo. The redesignation plan ensured that two of the Army's most famous and decorated divisions remain in the active force. The plan designating the divisions to remain was developed by the U.S. Army Center of Military History, which maintains records of Army unit lineage and honors. The center prepared an order-of-precedence list based on unit age, campaign participation, and awards and decorations. Units were then rank-ordered by category, providing a framework for the Army leadership to make its decision. In late 1994 Secretary of the Army Togo D. West Jr. and Army Chief of Staff Gen. Gordon R. Sullivan announced a plan to restructure the Army to encompass 10 active-duty divisions. The plan, implemented over two years, was directed by the October 1993 Bottom-Up Review. It represents the final phase in the Army's post-Cold War drawdown, stabilizing the force at 495,000 active-duty soldiers by the end of fiscal year 1996. It is one step in a journey that really began in 1989 to bring the Army down from 18 active divisions to 10, and 10 National Guard divisions to eight, and from 780,000 active-duty soldiers to 495,000. The new 10-division Army consists of four light divisions and six heavy divisions, all stationed at existing installations. Light divisions to remain in the force were the 10th Mountain Div. at Fort Drum, N.Y.; the 25th Infantry Division in Hawaii; the 82nd Airborne Div. at Fort Bragg, N.C., and the 101st Abn. Div. at Fort Campbell, Ky. Three heavy divisions were stationed in the United States, two in Germany and one in South Korea. At Fort Riley, Kan., the 1st Inf. Div. headquarters and divisional troop units were inactivated. The two brigades remained at Fort Riley, aligned with the two divisions in Germany. At Fort Carson, Colo., the 4th Inf. Div. headquarters, divisional unit troops and one brigade were inactivated. The other brigade remained at Fort Carson under the command of the 2nd Armored Div., which had been designated the Army's Experimental Force. Command and control for stateside units whose divisional headquarters are overseas was split between the division and U.S. Forces Command. FORSCOM provided day-to-day administrative control while the division provides the training focus. Two successful precedents for split-base divisions were set by the 1st Inf. Div. and 2nd Armd. Div., CONUS-based divisions with forward brigades based in Germany. Division XXI (DXXI) is the force designed to remain decisive in land warfare and optimized for mid to high intensity spectrum of conflict into the 21st Century. DXXI is the division design needed to serve as the core force essential for force cohesion and dominance to meet the demands in performing offensive and defensive operations in the expanded Division Battle Space of the future. The Standard Heavy Division is structured today at 18,069 (Mechanized Variant) and 17,832 (Armor Variant). The new division will be structured at 15,812 for the Mechanized Division Variant (15,299 AC, 515 RC) and 15,593 for the Armor Division Variant (15,080 AC, 515 RC). DXXI reduces Abrams and Bradley systems from 58 to 44 per battalion. Additionally, the increase to 3 squads with 9 infantrymen each (total 27) per platoon significantly enhances the fighting capability of mechanized infantry organizations. The 4th ID is designated as the Experimental Force (EXFOR) and serves as the Army's experimental testbed for new ideas on organization, doctrine, and equipment and testing information age technology. The 4th ID (-) was digitized by the end of CY00, 1st CAV by FY03, 3rd ACR and the First Digitized Corps (III Corps) by FY04. The 4th Infantry Division (ID) at Fort Hood, TX, is one of three divisions and a corps slated to be digitized. The first digitized corps will be III Corps. In 2003, the 1st Cavalry Division, also at Fort Hood, will become the second digitized division. By 2004, III Corps, parent command for the 4th ID and 1st Cavalry, will be digitized. That includes the corps support command and other "corps slices." The 3d Infantry Division, Fort Stewart, GA, will be digitized as resources become available. Fiscal constraints would permit only the cavalry squadron and one brigade in each division to be outfitted with embedded digitized ground maneuver systems (M1A2 Abrams tanks, Bradley Fighting Vehicles and selected enhancement programs). The other brigades' equipment will have applique digitized systems. As the divisions are being digitized, they will retain their warfighting responsibilities. The 4th ID became the Army's Experimental Force in 1995. Its 1st Brigade become Task Force XXI and was outfitted with digital communications systems, new equipment and new weapons systems.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/agency/army/division.htm

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tanstaaflsolutions · 8 years ago

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The 2017 French Presidential Election

By GlobalSecurity -Presidential Election - 23 April / 07 May 2017

Independent centrist Emmanuel Macron became France’s youngest ever president after earning a decisive win the country’s run-off vote on Sunday 07 May 2017. The win marks a climax for Macron’s meteoric rise from relative obscurity, but the tough task of building a governing majority for his newcomer En Marche! movement was yet to come. The 39-year-old political neophyte, who had never been elected to any office before winning his country’s top job, beat anti-immigration Europhobe Marine Le Pen, with 65.8 percent of the vote to Le Pen’s 34.2 percent, according to estimates released after final polls closed at 8pm Paris time.

The wide margin of victory was not a record in French presidential politics – conservative President Jacques Chirac beat Le Pen’s father, National Front founder Jean-Marie Le Pen, 82.2 percent to 17.8 percent in 2002 – but it did top all recent polling in a twist-after-twist presidential campaign.

With double her father’s score 15 years ago, the populist Le Pen’s figure nevertheless marks a watershed moment in the history of the far-right National Front. It affirms her place as a force to be reckoned with in French politics just as the country’s political landscape is in unprecedented flux after first-round defeats of both of the political forces on the conservative right and socialist left that have governed France for decades. In remarks shortly after polls closed on Sunday, Le Pen said, “The National Front… must deeply renew itself in order to rise to the historic opportunity and meet the French people’s expectations.” She pledged during her brief address to supporters to “propose to start this deep transformation of our movement in order to make a new political force.”

Polls projected that pro-Europe centrist Emmanuel Macron gained 23.7 % of the vote, and far-right populist Marine Le Pen got 21.7% of the vote. The two thus advanced from the first round of voting in France's presidential election to the winner-takes-all runoff on May 7. Tied for third place, Fillon was at 19.5% and Mélenchon was at 19.5%, according to early results. Turnout in the French presidential election was 69.42 percent at 1500 GMT, one of its highest levels in 40 years, data from the interior ministry showed Sunday 23 April 2017. The figure was about one percentage point lower than the same stage at the last election in 2012, but polling booths will stay open an hour longer this time, closing at 1700 GMT or 1800 GMT in mainland France. Meanwhile, around 1.3 million French people abroad were registered to vote – representing around two percent of the total electorate.

The two rounds of France's 2017 presidential elections will take place on April 23 and May 7, the government announced on 04 May 2016. Parliamentary elections will take place right after, on June 11 and June 18.

Former French prime ministers François Fillon and Alain Juppé vied for the conservative nomination in a primary run-off after handing former president Nicolas Sarkozy a shock defeat on Sunday 20 November 2016. Fillon stunned his opponents by taking more that 44% of the vote, well ahead of Juppé (28%) and Sarkozy (20%). The former president conceded defeat and endorsed Fillon for next week's second round. With the ruling Socialists all but written off, opinion polls suggested whoever wins the nomination will likely face – and defeat – far-right leader Marine Le Pen in the presidential run-off. Organisers reported strong turnout, topping 2.5 million at 5pm local time (GMT+1).

Many of same issues playing out in the U.S. campaign are also resonating in France. Voters are disenchanted with the status quo, worried about jobs, and fearful of the downsides of immigration, globalization and militant Islam. These concerns are powering a hunger for new faces and new solutions. All of this has sent former prime minister and current mayor of Bordeaux Alain Juppe and many other mainstream candidates scrambling to rebrand, eager to ditch their insider image. The National Front consistently ranks as France’s most popular party, suggesting major mainstream parties may have a tough battle ahead of the 2017 presidential vote. Far-right party leader Marine Le Pen is seen making it to the run-off between the top two candidates after the first round, but then losing.

Aside from Le Pen, the two most popular figures on the right and the left are, respectively, the oldest and youngest potential candidates: Alain Juppé, who served as Prime Minister under Chirac, and Emmanuel Macron, Hollande’s Minister of Economy, Industry, and Digital Affairs. Opinion polls showed former prime minister Alain Juppe from the center-right Les Republicains party as the front-runner. Juppé’s ratings in opinion polls have been remarkably steady, and Macron’s have been surprisingly high.

Regional elections are regarded as a launch pad for the presidential elections in 2017, and a win could significantly boost a candidate’s chances.

Former French interior minister Claude Gueant was on 06 March 2015 charged with tax evasion and forgery in connection with a probe into allegations that former Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi helped finance Nicolas Sarkozy's 2007 presidential election campaign. Investigators discovered a 500,000-euro transfer in Gueant's bank account during a raid in February 2013. Gueant, who was Sarkozy's right-hand man for a decade, claimed the money was the proceeds of the sale of two 17th-century Flemish paintings to a Malaysian lawyer.

Accusations that Sarkozy's successful 2007 campaign was financed by Gaddafi’s Libya emerged after the first round of voting in the 2012 election, when the Mediapart website published a document dating from 2006 and setting out an arrangement for 50 million euros to be paid, illegally, to the campaign. Sarkozy said the document was a forgery, and was backed by the former Libyan intelligence chief Moussa Koussa whose signature was on it.

French Prime Minister Manuel Valls warned 08 March 2015 that the far-right Front National (FN) party could win the next presidential election in 2017, saying their policies were a "disaster" for the country. "Do you not think that a FN which wins 25 percent in European elections and maybe 30 percent in local elections... cannot win the presidential election?" Valls said on French television channel iTele. "Not in 2022, not in 2029, but in 2017," he added. According to an OpinionWay survey for Metronews and LCI published on 06 March 2015, the opposition right-wing UMP party would win 29 percent in the first round of the local elections, just ahead of the FN which was credited with 28 percent of the vote.

French President François Hollande’s approval ratings jumped in the wake of the 13 November 2015 attacks in Paris. Since his election in 2012, Hollande’s approval ratings had been consistently low, making him one of the most unpopular presidents in recent French history. But according to two new polls, Hollande’s ratings surged over his handling of the November 13 attacks in Paris, which claimed the lives of 130 people.

One survey by market and opinion researcher BVA published on 21 November 2015 found that 33 percent of French people had a “good opinion” of Hollande – up from 25 percent in October – while his disapproval rating fell 10 points to 65 percent.

Another poll by Ifop for the weekly newspaper Journal du Dimanche also marked a significant jump in Hollande’s popularity, with 27 percent “very or somewhat satisfied” with his performance, up from 20 percent the month before.

It was unclear, however, whether Hollande’s improved ratings would have an impact on his Socialist Party’s chances in the country’s upcoming regional elections on December 6 and December 13. The president saw a similar spike in popularity after January’s deadly attacks on French satirical weekly Charlie Hebdo and a kosher grocery store in Paris. But his polling slipped in the months that followed as the public’s attention shifted to other issues, reaching a 2015-low in October.

The National Front had led in at least six of the country’s 13 regions in the first part of elections 06 December 2015. But early results of the second round of elections 13 December 2015 showed the Republican party of former President Nicolas Sarkozy and his center-right allies leading in seven regions. The governing Socialist and other leftist parties won in at least five. But theNational Front ’s strong showing - earning one-third or more of the vote in some regions - underscored its steady gains in recent years, including in March local elections and last year’s European Union ones.

As incumbent, Hollande by French tradition has a right of first refusal on whether he will take his party's ticket into the May 2017 election. He is still not officially candidate and has said he will decide by the end of 2016.

The conservative opposition Les Républicains (LR) party is due to hold its primaries in November 2016 to choose its candidate for the 2017 vote.

Hollande, one of the least popular presidents of modern times, would fail to make it past the first round in 2017’s presidential election in most realistic scenarios, according to an opinion poll published 18 April 2016. The opinion poll was conducted on April 15 and 16, questioning 1011 registered voters across France. Against all the leading mainstream right-wing contenders, Hollande would fail to take second place, with Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Front coming first in all but one case, the TNS Sofres-OnePoint survey found.

Alain Juppé, who was Prime Minister from 1995 to 1997 under Jacques Chirac, has a strong political pedigree that is respected by voters. Under Nicolas Sarkozy, he went on to become environment minister (2007) then defence minister from 2010 to 2011 and finally foreign minister between 2011 and 2012. According to the survey, he is the only candidate who would beat Marine Le Pen in the first round.

Juppé, who is currently mayor of Bordeaux, is the bookies’ favorite to win overall in 2017. According to the poll, he would take 35 percent in the first round, with Marine Le Pen coming second with 26 percent, and Hollande trailing third with just 13 percent support.

Former president Nicolas Sarkozy, embroiled in a seemingly endless series of scandals relating to his time in office (2007-2012), would come second in the first round with 24 percent, according to the poll, behind Marine Le Pen on 29 percent. Hollande would languish in third place with 16 percent.

The poll predicts François Fillon, who was prime minister under Sarkozy from 2007 to 2012, would also take second place with 23 percent, behind Marine Le Pen on 32 percent. Hollande would once again be at the bottom of the pile, with just 14 percent.

Bruno Le Maire, who served as agriculture minister under Nicolas Sarkozy from 2009 to 2012, follows the pattern by also coming second to Le Pen, with 21 percent to her 30 percent. In this scenario, Hollande would come fourth, on 11 percent, behind far-left firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon who would take 16 percent.

Many French voters – 28 percent – think former banker and Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron should represent the Socialist Party, even though he is not a party member and recently launched his own political movement “En Marche !” (which roughly translates as “Forward!"). This puts Macron well ahead of other Socialist hopefuls, including Prime Minister Manuel Valls, with just 14 percent approval, and Martine Aubry, with 12 percent.

Only 11 percent of voters want Hollande to present himself as a candidate at all, according to the survey. Even among confirmed Socialist supporters, only 39 percent feel he should stand.

Tens of thousands of demonstrators took to the streets across France for nationwide strikes protesting a government labor reform proposal that would make it easier for employers to hire and fire workers and weaken the power of unions. Protesters clashed with police as several thousand people shouting anti-government slogans marched through Paris, demanding the government reverse its labor bill. Protesters met with waves of tear gas as police fought bands of masked marchers.

As union activists disrupted fuel supplies, trains and nuclear plants around the country, French Transport Minister Alain Vidalies played down concerns that strikes would lead to blackouts, saying France could import electricity if needed. Prime Minister Manuel Valls, fighting for his political survival, insisted the legislation will not be withdrawn, but said it might still be possible to make “changes” or “improvements”, though he insisted the government will not abandon it. There were signs of cracks within the government, with Finance Minister Michel Sapin suggesting the most contested part of the law should be rewritten

President Francois Hollande vowed 27 May 2016 to “stand firm” over a controversial labour law as unions called on workers to step up a wave of industrial action gripping the country. France was battling fuel shortages, transport disruption and violent demonstrations, just as it gears up to host the Euro 2016 football championships in two weeks’ time. The social unrest showed little sign of easing as unions urged workers to pile the pressure on Hollande’s deeply unpopular Socialist government by continuing to strike. Union leaders also said the government’s response to the strikes and its “stubbornness” in refusing to withdraw the controversial bill was only “boosting the determination” of opponents to the reforms.

In Nice, the public reaction to the Bastille Day rampage was very different from the Paris attack in 2015. Instead of solidarity, accusations are flying over the leftist government’s failure to prevent a third terrorist strike in just 18 months. The mood on the streets is sullen and fearful. And less than a year before French elections, security — along with jobs and growth — emerged as a top campaign theme. France’s premier Manuel Valls was booed by crowds that had gathered for a minute of silence in the city of Nice to honor the memory of the 84 killed in the deadly attack on Bastille Day. “Murderers!” hecklers shouted to Prime Minister Manuel Valls as he joined the gathering in Nice. “Resign!” An IFOP poll taken a day after the attack found 67 percent of those surveyed had no confidence in the government’s ability to fight terrorism.

The Nice region on the Mediterranean, an hour's flight from Tunis, is home to a large number of Tunisian and Algerian Muslims. Nice is a hotbead of support for the National Front, with the issue of French identity hostage of the French right. The National Front (FN) party wants to slash immigration from North Africa. The Mediterranean coast is particularly fertile ground for the National Front, with many descendants of the Pieds-Noirs [literally Black-Foot, a term with unclear and debated origen], French-Algerian colonists expelled to France after Algeria’s bloody war of independence ended in 1962. Upon their arrival in France, many of the Pied-Noirs felt ostracized because many French believed the Pied-Noirs were the cause of the conflict and political humiliation in Algeria.

Hollande’s political opponents did not wait for the fallout. “I know that we should not fight and tear each other apart when the victims aren’t yet buried,” former president Nicolas Sarkozy, who is competing in a November primary for the ticket to run as presidential candidate for France’s mainstream center-right parties, told French TV. “But everything that should have been done over the past 18 months was not done.” Another presidential hopeful, former Prime Minister Alain Juppe, offered similar words. “If everything had been done, this attack would not have happened,” he concluded. For her part, far right, anti-immigration leader Marine Le Pen has called on French Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve to resign. “In any other country, a minister with a record as disgraceful as Bernard Cazeneuve’s — 250 dead in 18 months — would have stepped down a long time ago,” she said.

Emmanuel Macron, a former investment banker who was Hollande’s economy minister until August 2016, also announced his candidacy on 16 November 2016. Although Macron is among France's most popular politicians, the 38-year-old, who would stand as an independent, ddid not hold elected office and had no party apparatus behind him. And while he had yet to set out his policies in any detail, he was widely seen as the candidate most likely to take votes from conservative Juppé in the first round of the presidential election.

Seven candidates, including former French President Nicolas Sarkozy and former Prime Minister Alain Juppé, sought Les Républicains party nomination to run for the 2017 presidential election. Under the rules, the primary heads for a second round on November 27 if no candidate wins 50 percent of the vote on 20 November 2016. Sarkozy campaigned on a hardline law-and-order platform, while Juppé, an experienced politician and mayor of Bordeaux, had been consistently leading in the polls. The race for the was widely viewed as a two-man race between Sarkozy and Juppé. However, by mid-November 2016, another former French prime minister, François Fillon, enjoyed a sudden spike in the poll ratings.

Juppé was among the country’s most loathed politicians in the 1990s, when he served as prime minister. Among the seven contenders in the Republican primary, two are former prime ministers, one is ex-president Nicolas Sarkozy, while the other four are veteran politicians. When candidate Jean-Francois Coppe vastly underestimated the cost of a croissant recently, his rivals and the media pounced, suggesting he was disconnected with the concerns of ordinary voters.

An OpinionWay survey published 15 November 2016 showed Fillon, who had been languishing in a distant third place, taking 25 percent of likely voters, putting him neck and neck with his former boss Sarkozy. Similarly, an Ifop-Fiducial poll for Sud Radio released 17 November 2016 saw Fillon getting 27 percent of votes in Sunday’s first round, versus 31 percent for Juppé and 30 percent for Sarkozy. However a poll by Cevipof and Ipsos-Sopra Steria published 17 November 2016 showed Juppé scoring 36 percent of votes in the opening round of the Les Republicains party primary, with Sarkozy, at 29 percent, qualifying for a runoff against Juppé a week later.

Juppé was also favored to win the presidential election in May 2017, in a likely second-round runoff against far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen. The Cevipof poll confirmed the widely held expectation that the left would be eliminated as a real force in the 2017 poll with Le Pen making it to the second round against a centre-right opponent. The winner of the 20 November 2016 primaries will therefore be the favorite to become French president, given the weakness of the ruling Socialists and the record unpopularity of current President François Hollande, who had yet to declare whether he will run for a second term in office.

During the campaign, commentators and experts suggested that a high turnout will not play in the hands of Sarkozy who mostly relied on support from party activists. Turnout was unexpectedly high. Nearly four million people cast their ballots. Some 30 percent of the voters were the electorate of the left and the National Front far-right movement as well as politically neutral voters.

President Francois Hollande's decision 01 December 2016 not to run for a second term may not change the outcome of French elections, analysts say, but it reflected a broader populist backlash that is upending politics in Europe and the United States. Hollande became the first president in modern French history not to run for re-election, but he also faced record unpopularity, with approval ratings recently dipping to 4 percent. "In the months to come, my only duty will be to continue to lead my country," Hollande said in a hastily scheduled televised address, in which he did not endorse a leftist successor.

Prime Minister Manuel Valls, was saddled with the same political legacy as Hollande, making his own presidential prospects uncertain. BFM TV, a 24-hour rolling news and weather channel based in France, described Hollande as handing his prime minister a "poisoned present." The January 2017 Socialist primaries could pit centrist-minded Valls against much more leftist ex-economy minister Arnaud Montebourg.

A POP 2017 poll released on 12 January 2017 put Le Pen in first place for the first round of the election on 25 percent, just ahead of Fillon on 24 percent, although if Fillon were to face her in a second round, the same poll predicts he would beat her comfortably. The same poll shows Macron steadily gaining ground on Fillon and Le Pen, on 20 percent. He would also, according to the surveys, comfortably beat Le Pen in a second round, in which he is a whisker ahead of Fillon.

An Elabre poll published on 12 January 2017 showed that Macron was France’s most popular politician, with 41 percent saying they had a positive image of him, ahead of Fillon (35 percent) and Le Pen (29 percent). Betting markets also show a swing behind a candidate who was seen as a rank outsider at the end of 2016. The bookmakers’ odds of him winning have jumped from 7/1 to 4/1 in as little as a week, although Fillon remains firm favorite, in front of Le Pen at 3/1.

Surveys carried out during the primary in November 2016 showed that “integrity” was Fillon’s main vote-winner. It was the contrast between his austere, un-divorced, father-of-five persona and the scandal-plagued Nicolas Sarkozy that swayed so many social conservatives. “His candidacy rests on three pillars: probity, a strong work ethic and an aversion to state handouts,” Thomas Guénolé, a writer and political analyst, said01 February 2017. “All three [pillars] are blown away by PenelopeGate,” he added Sixty-eight percent of respondents want French presidential hopeful François Fillon to withdraw from the election, a 04 February 2017 poll showed. Fillon’s popularity plunged following allegations that his wife was paid hundreds of thousands of euros for a "fake" job. The blow to Fillon’s reputation was measured by an Ifop poll conducted for Le Journal du Dimanche. Only 23 percent of those who took part in the poll consider the conservative candidate, who was until recently poised to become France's next president, “honest,” compared with 77 percent who think he is not.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/europe/fr-gouv-election-2017.htm

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