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B&I Lions - a word of warning

Come 12 noon tomorrow, the Twitterverse will officially be launched into complete pandemonium for British and Irish rugby fans. I would strongly advise fans with a short fuse and high blood pressure to lock their phones away for the following 24hrs. 

There will be arguments, there will be verbal diarrhoea and there will be surprise inclusions and big names left at home. So, lets get a few things straight, here are a few pre ‘squad announcement’ warnings from the Top Two Inches:

Nobody, I repeat – NOBODY – will be left 100% satisfied by Warren Gatland’s squad choice. Don’t throw your toys out the pram and go shopping for All Blacks kit if your favourite player doesn’t get in.

There will be more Englishmen than any other nation – deservedly – lets lay off the England bashing when the time comes.

There will be very few Scots. As a Scot myself this is disappointing, but make no mistake, its fair. Expect no more than 3 or 4 players to travel, fellow Scotland fans.

Warren Gatland will pick Welsh players in 50/50 situations – any coach with common sense will go with what he knows. i.e. Biggar over Ford/Russell. Let’s not hold that against him.

Credit in the bank counts. Players like Faletau & POM have credit in the bank. The fact they missed most of the 6N doesn’t mean they should miss the tour.

Steve Borthwick is one of the selectors – English 2nd rows will travel in numbers. If you are a Gray, Toner or Ryan fan then you may have to prepare for disappointment.

Rowntree is the forwards coach – The 6N winning front row will also travel.

WP Nel hasn’t played a significant game of rugby in almost 6 months and still doesn’t have a publicised return to play date. Tough to pick, despite credit in the bank.

The fact that Scotland and Wales beat Ireland is cancelled out by the fact that Ireland beat New Zealand, and vice versa. Lets not use 80/160/240 minutes of rugby to launch arguments for exclusion/inclusion – there is a bigger picture than all 3 of these games.

Players like Daly, Zebo and L.Williams have an edge over the Seymours, Nowells and Ashtons as they play 2 positions. Versatility goes a long way on a brutal Lions tour.

Whatever way you look at it, people will be disappointed. I’m probably pissing into the wind when I say this, but if you are English and JJ doesn’t get picked/Scottish and Gray doesn’t get picked/Welsh and Tipuric doesn’t go/Irish and Ringrose doesn’t go, pretty please don’t be that guy/girl that turns around and says any of the following:

‘The Lions is over’ ‘I’m supporting New Zealand’ ‘There is an agenda against XXX nation’ ‘Gatland is a fool’

Sure, sulk and moan all you want, but get behind the squad that is picked, and enjoy what is one of the greatest events in sport.  

LIIIOOOOOONNNNSSSS!!!!

Fraser Hutt, TheT2I

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Dear Vern, Haste Ye Back!

So, Vern and the boys managed to keep the aforementioned ‘Scottish hype train’ on track until week 4, ultimately running out of steam in tragic style at Twickenham, before finally picking themselves up, dusting of the hurt and exiting stage left post-Italy. I don’t think it’s worth me going in to great detail or depth over the England game, most fans will agree that it was a good England side on a good day… and, well, a good Scotland side on a s***e day, and we were deservedly hammered. 

The boys will - and should - keep that one in the memory bank, it wasn’t one of those games that you come off the pitch and instantly want another shot at them, It was one of those that make you re-assess how much work is still to be done, one that left them dazed and probably a little sick in the stomach. So, here are my ‘brief’ thoughts before moving onto our Vernon…

Yes, we went without Dickinson, Nel, Strauss, Laidlaw, Maitland and then lost Hogg early, but I’m not interested in those excuses, neither is Vern and neither are the 23 who took the field. What interested me was that mentally we were vacant, and this comes down to preparation and experience of these big occasions. 

We don’t have much of the latter, you could tell mid-week that Hogg was a little too keen; he mentioned that he was physically shaking in anticipation, in a positive way of course. This is often a sign of over-hyping the game in your head, a lack of focus, a lack of calm, and waste of energy. You may think that’s exactly what you want before a game, and you would be right, but not on the Wednesday of match week. Hogg is a senior team member; players will look at him for help, calm and reassurance in big moments. It was clear from Brown’s first tackle and Dunbar’s lack thereof, that this had filtered throughout the team. 

Now, I’m certainly not blaming Stuart Hogg for the loss (he wasn’t on the pitch for the most part), and I could be jumping to conclusions, but from where I was sitting it certainly looked like Scotland’s mental preparation wasn’t quite where it needed to be. That’s ok though, for now, Scotland are very much in a growth phase, learning every test series and (most of the time) not making the same mistake twice. That might be the biggest lesson learned so far for this young group; only time will tell if we have taken it on board.

Anyway, enough of that – Anthony Vernon Cotter ladies and gentlemen…. *pause for affect… What that man has done for Scottish Rugby is very difficult to put into words, but here is my best shot.

Vern doesn’t strike me as the type to say things for the sake of it, he’s not a cliché man and doesn’t mince the few words he does have. He’s a straight talker with a mild sense of humour that gradually endears you to him, and in hindsight, he fitted Scotland and its people so perfectly. He loved Scotland, he honestly cared and wanted us to succeed – he said it himself that he always supported Scotland whilst in France and disliked the ‘wee man’ tag that we carried, and that certainly showed during his final interview post Italy.

Les yeux de glace finally began to crack, he could only answer one question before moving on and wiping a tear away, he knew that would be the case but he had so much respect for the nation that he felt they deserved a few words at least. Vern meant it when he said he was a Scotland fan, and he meant it when he said it wasn’t about him. 

I guess this is part in parcel of why he was successful; the players bought into him and in time, so did the fans. For quite some time (as a fan) it felt like the blue jersey didn’t really have the same meaning or carry the same pride as maybe it once did. I’m sure plenty ex-players will disagree, and of course, I am in no position to comment on what the jersey meant to Lamont, Paterson, Blair, Cusiter et al, but I can comment from an external point of view as a lifelong fan. Cotter has managed to re-ignite a rugby nation through his own passion – Joe Schmidt recently said that he used to learn from Vern almost by osmosis:

Osmosis - noun

1.

A process by which molecules of a solvent tend to pass through a semipermeable membrane from a less concentrated solution into a more concentrated one.

2.

The process of gradual or unconscious assimilation of ideas, knowledge, etc.

It certainly seems like some of that passion Vern possesses has filtered through those semi-permeable Scottish walls. Just look at the reception the public have given him, not just getting off the bus on Saturday, or the ovation at the final whistle, look at the last 4 Murrayfield attendances versus Italy:

50,000 – 2013 62,000 – 2015 43,000 – 2015 67,144 (Sold Out) – 2017

Some will argue that the SRU have gotten their act together, some will argue that Hogg is more exciting than Paterson, and Russell easier on the eye than Jackson/Weir, but for me it comes down to Vern’s influence. We are talking foundations, culture, public interest and most of all, passion and belief that we deserve to be at the top table.

Am I gutted Vern is leaving? Yes, of course I am. In an ideal world he should have stayed for another year before Townsend took the reigns, but this isn’t an ideal world, and I praise the SRU for being decisive and recognising Townsend’s potential – it clearly wasn’t an easy choice to make. 

Perhaps he could have stayed in Scotland in another capacity, maybe in Scott Johnson’s seat, maybe higher up? Vern was always aware that the suits wanted a Scottish coach in charge long-term, and although he came as close as possible to convincing us he was actually Scottish in a former life, he too would appreciate these plans. Am I excited about the future? Yes. Am I disappointed Gregor Townsend will be Scotland Head Coach next term? Absolutely not.

So, on behalf of the Scotland fans and the Top Two Inches, Vern, haste ye back.

Fraser Hutt, TT2I

For more from The Top Two Inches, find us on Twitter here

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Wales – A look to the future

So Wales did it! They out-battled Ireland and won an incredible test match. I was in the ground and can honestly say that, to a man, I’m chuffed for the players.

Howley had made a bold call by selecting the same 23 as he had against Scotland and – other than a couple changes brought on by injury – the same as against both Italy and England.

As many a fan and pundit has said, his decisions have been ‘vindicated’.  

But, at what cost?

Wales have used 26 players so far in this tournament, and used only 7 others across the entire November period (not a single one of those uncapped).

In fact, as I’m sure many saw (and were equally shocked by) on Scrum V, Wales have only handed out 3 new caps since the 2015 RWC – 4 fewer than Scotland, 9 fewer than England, and a whopping 16 fewer than Ireland.

Giving youth a crack used to be a staple of Warren Gatland’s system (think Prydie, Amos, Robinson, and co.), but since the RWC Quarter-Final defeat almost exactly 18-months ago, Wales have gone more into their shell than ever.

Granted, not every experiment has worked – but that’s the point of an experiment; you devise a hypothesis, you test it, and then you see the results. If one Will Harries-shaped test doesn’t quite work out, another George North-sized one might just do the trick.

It’s through mixing things up and throwing people in the deep end that we learn whether they can swim – or else you could end up with an injury-ravaged squad at a World Cup, and find out that all you’ve got is a bunch underdone back-ups, ready for nothing more than the paddling pool.

So why then, have we been so reluctant to hand caps out to youngsters since the world cup?

Well, Jiffy raised one train of thought during Sunday’s Scrum V: this is a winning business, and the players currently out there are the best ones for the job.

Ok. That could well be true. But, as Gwyn Jones rebutted, there is simply no way of knowing that for sure unless risks are taken and players on the fringes are given a go – at least for more than a token couple of minutes at the end of games.

Second line of thinking: Rob Howley is the Interim Head Coach – it is not his responsibility to aide Warren Gatland’s long-term player growth; it is his role to hold the fort and hope they win matches.

Personally, I think anyone that truly believes this is a fool!

OF COURSE it should be Howley’s job to think about blooding in these players, as he’s the one that has to coach them to the next World Cup. And he must know himself, that at our current rate, he’s at serious risk of working with yet another under-baked squad (from a depth perspective) come World Rugby’s next showpiece event, only 2 and half years away from now.

So, looking forward then. Where and when do we get the low-to-no capped players out on to the park for a chance to get some genuine game time, in test match environments?

Well this summer’s tour of the Pacific Islands should certainly act as a start, and, while Tonga and Samoa aren’t exactly tier-one nations, you best believe that they will both be 100% fired up to smash any and all Welsh youngsters straight back to that paddling pool they came from.

The New Kidz on the Block

So who are these wondrous youngsters set to breathe new life into a stagnating Welsh squad, I hear you ask? Well, I just so happen to have pulled together the following (entirely subjective) list of players, aged 23 and under who could well do just that:

Ospreys

Nicky Smith, 22 – 10 caps

A well-established name at regional level, Smith started the first match of the Six Nations and has deputized well for Rob Evans throughout the rest of the tournament. With Evans pushing hard for a Lions spot, Smith could well be a Wales starter again this summer.

Rory Thornton, 21 – 0 caps

Brought into Wales’ Six Nations training squad, Thornton is still yet to play for the full test team – but the 6 ft 7” lock has already made over 50 Ospreys appearances, and looks nailed on to get his first cap soon.

 Adam Beard, 21 – 0 caps

Having partnered Thornton in the engine room for Ospreys and at Wales u20s level, we’ll hopefully see their partnership start to blossom at international level soon. 6 ft 8” Beard is a Charteris-type lock, with a serious set of maul-stopping telescopic arms on him.

Olly Cracknell, 22 – 0 caps

The Leeds-born, former Wales u20s backrow has kicked on massively at Ospreys this season. He seems equally adept at 6 or 8 and has developed into a hugely destructive tackler and ball carrier. Expecting big things.

Sam Davies, 23 – 5 caps

Well, what else is there to say about Sam Davies at this stage? Is having another superb season for the Os and should have been given much more game time for Wales than he currently has. The former junior world player of the year seems to have the full package as a 10, and should start for Wales this summer

Keelan Giles, 19 – 0 caps

The kid! Giles burst on to the scene last season for the u20s, scoring 5 tries to help them on their way to Grandslam success. He was then brought into the Wales training squad out in New Zealand last summer, and has taken to the professional scene this season like a duck to water, scoring 12 tries in 12 games so far. The lightening-quick wing should have been blooded in the autumn, and should start this summer.

Dafydd Howells, 21 – 1 cap

Made his Wales debut on the Japan tour 4 years ago and has pushed on massively this season, scoring 9 tries in 19 games. Along with Giles, Ospreys have 2 very exciting young wingers and Howells should expect another call up this summer.

Owen Watkin, 20 – 0 caps

I love the look of this lad. He’s strong, fast, and distributes well – basically everything you want from a centre. Playing across 12 and 13 last season, Watkin put in a string of impressive performances in the Pro12, as well as being a key member of the Welsh u20s Grandslam team. A bad knee injury during pre-season means he’s not featured at all this season, but hopefully he can come back smoothly in the very near future.

Kieran Williams, 19 – 0 caps

Neck on the line a bit with this one, as I’ve only seen him play 4 u20s matches. But what a 4 matches they’ve been. Williams has already scored 5 tries this tournament and looks a serious prospect at 12. Like Watkin, he’s strong and quick, and is already being likened to Welsh rugby royalty, Scott Gibbs.

Scarlets

 Steff Evans, 22 – 0 caps

One of many exciting young Welsh back 3 players, Evans may be top of the pile in the Welsh selectors’ minds. He’s already racked up 50 Scarlets caps and has 6 league tries to his name so far this season. A long way from the biggest player in world, Evans is still a tough little nut! Should have been given some game time this Six Nations – near-certain to play this summer.

Rhys Patchell, 23 – 4 caps

How is this guy still only 23?! Patchell made his Cardiff debut in 2011 and he’s been balling away ever since. Can dip in and out of form, and is, at times, guilty of looking for the miracle pass too often, but there’s no doubting his quality. A move to Scarlets this summer has helped him get regular game time at fly half, but a bad injury back in January has somewhat curtailed that progress. If fit, he’s more than likely to travel as back-up 10.

Will Boyde, 22 – 0 caps

Kind of come from nowhere this season, Boyde has become a regular in Scarlets’ dynamic back row. He’s big, strong, good over the ball, and has proved a useful try-scoring threat, to boot. Faces strong competition for places, but could well break into the Wales setup in the next couple years.

Dan Jones, 21 – 0 caps

Was the starting fly half for the Wales u20s Grandslam side, and has deputized superbly for the injured Patchell so far this year. Jones seems to have a good head for managing games (as proved when he masterminded Scarlets 21 point comeback away to Munster) and has a boot as reliable as Leigh Halfpenny’s circa 2013. In my opinion, the 2 other fly halves already listed are still a good bit ahead of him, but with 2 years on both of them, there’s no saying he can’t push them for a spot over the next few years.

Cardiff

 Ellis Jenkins, 23 – 3 caps

A former Wales u20s captain, Jenkins is an all-action jackler, whose already got more than 50 Cardiff Blues caps. Was called up for Wales’ tour to NZ after Lydiate’s injury and made 3 appearances off the bench against the All Blacks. No doubt a talent, but in a crowded position, he could well struggle to break into the Wales setup again.

Tomos Williams, 22 – 0 caps

Opened the season well, starting the first two matches and scoring against Edinburgh. Has, at times, found minutes hard to come by, despite some patchy form from Lloyd Williams, but looks a livewire when he’s on the park. He’s fast, delivers the ball quickly, and generally keeps defenses honest – his only problem is there’s about 10 other scrum halves in Wales that do the same thing. Will probably find his breakthrough hard to come by.

Rhun Williams, 19 – 0 caps

Highly rated young full back, Williams is a key member of the Wales u20s setup, and has also broken his way into the Blues side this season – scoring 4 tries in 8 matches so far. Pacey, got a great step, picks good lines, counters well – he’s definitely got all the makings of a very good 15.

Corey Domachowski, 20 – 0 caps

Only just broken in to the Blues side, this kid looks like he could be the real deal at loose head. A tank of a lad, he recently went toe-to-toe with Munster for 75 minutes and did not look out of place. Wales aren’t blessed with heaps of quality young props, so the earlier we can get this lad exposed to an elite environment, the better.

Dragons

 Hallam Amos, 22 – 11 caps

Broke into the Welsh team when he was about 12 years old and injuries have been the only thing holding him back since. Was the starting winger for the opening 2 world cup games, but a nasty shoulder dislocation in the England match ended his tournament, and he then did the same injury against Australia back in the autumn. Hasn’t played since and will be in a race against time to be ready for the summer, but he’s got a very bright future (if he can stay fit).

Ashton Hewitt, 22 – 0 caps

This lad has been one of the few bright sparks for the Dragons over the last 2 seasons – 7 tries last year and 5 so far this season (not bad going when you consider how little the Drags create chances), Hewitt has got gas to burn and is a very exciting prospect. Was called up to the Six Nations squad, but a return from concussion has resulted in zero playing time. While he is doubtless a talent, he’s competing with a lot of talented wingers, and he’d be below both Giles and Evans in the pecking order, for me.  

Harrison Keddie, 20 – 0 caps

Insanely bright prospect, Keddie – with his barnstorming carrying ability – was the standout performer as Wales’ u20s clinched the Slam last season. He’s progressed to make 16 appearances for the Dragons this season (mostly from the bench), and will surely cement down a starting no. 8 spot in the next year. The u20s championship has been, without doubt, a bit of a red herring in the past, but hopefully Keddie has the long-term quality to prove the exception, rather than the rule.

Tyler Morgan, 21 – 3 caps

Signed a National Dual Contract in 2014, started a World Cup Quarter-Final in 2015, and yet he’s still only 21! Morgan, a little like Amos, has had some bad luck with injuries, but he’s no doubt incredibly talented for his age. I must admit, I’m yet to see him have a game that makes me think “wow, this kid has got it!”, but you don’t receive those kind of accolades, at such a young age, unless you’ve got the potential to be a serious player. Playing in a team like the Dragons isn’t going to help any back’s cause, but hopefully Morgan finds a way of growing to the level expected of him there.

On to the summer…

Much like the summer tour of Japan in 2013, I believe we can expect Wales to take a very inexperienced touring side, with there being a good mix of young players and those that have been on the fringes of selection for a few years. As with the 2013 tour, I’m sure there will also be some more experienced campaigners who – though they may not have a nailed down Wales starting spot – are able to add the on/off-pitch expertise of 1st team regulars (e.g. Samson Lee and my tour captain, Jake Ball).

The only downside of this tour? The lack of a Head Coach that the fringe players can really make an impression on – as, unlike the rest of the home nations’ teams, the Welsh lads will be left with Wales’ 3rd in command to impress. It’s not overly fair on those that have been waiting for their chance, but make an impression, they must!

Have a look at the potential summer tour squad I’ve selected below and let us know if you strongly agree / disagree with any on the list.

Couple notable mentions from those selected:

Ashley Beck – delighted to see him back fit and influencing games for Ospreys week-in-week-out. It seems like an eternity since he’s had a run of games, and with his ball-playing ability at 12, he could well be the man to push Scott Williams for a Wales starting spot in the future.

Thomas Young and James Davies – both been in outstanding form for their clubs all season, but unfortunately they happen to play in arguably Wales’ strongest position. Hopefully both can get a chance to make their debuts this summer and impress forwards coach, McBryde.

And, just as an added bonus, here’s my team to face Tonga on June 17th:

Smith, Dacey, Lee, Thornton, Ball, Cracknell, Young, King; A. Davies, S. Davies, Giles, Beck, Morgan, Evans, Amos

Parry, Gill, Andrews, Hill, J. Davies; Habberfield, Patchell, John

Thoughts and feelings, as always, more than welcome (https://twitter.com/TheT2I)

Lloyd Jones, TT2I

[thetoptwoinches-blog]

Underdog tag still the most comfortable fit for Ireland..

How far away November now seems..

Ireland launched their 2017 6 Nations campaign with a tricky, but eminently winnable trip to Edinburgh to face the ever-embryonic Scots in the tournament opener. Fresh from a November to remember and the apparent return to the European top table of Leinster and Munster with stellar Champions Cup group stage campaigns, expectations were understandably high. All across the national newspapers journos tipped Ireland to win the tournament, with many predicting that the sweetest of victories over the unbeaten English on Paddy’s weekend would be the cherry on top of the Grandslam cake upon which we would gleefully feast. Stuff of dreams.

As it happened, Princess Anne had scarcely time to take her seat in the Murrayfield West Stand before the swashbuckling Scottish three-quarters had caught the Irish defence in the headlights and put paid to our Grandslam hopes, almost before proceedings had begun. Signs of relative improvement followed with a promising, if unsuccessful, second half comeback, followed by a 10-try rout in the Rome sunshine and a professional and somewhat routine victory over the French in Dublin.

As England stuttered briefly in the face of Conor O’Shea’s admirable manipulation of the laws, thoughts of nicking the championship from them on the final weekend - like the fairytale said we would - seemed to reignite. Then, on Friday night we went to Cardiff and ran headlong into an immovable red wall for 80 minutes, much like we did in 2015. We left battered, bruised and pointless, and with the prospect of the seemingly unstoppable English Chariot coming bellowing down the track.

So where did it all go wrong?

You could slice and dice Ireland’s fortunes a million different ways. You could point the finger at coaching, at individual players, even at key moments on which each of the defeats swung. I’m not going to get into all that, but the truth is we probably weren’t as good as everyone thought we were in November, and we probably aren’t as bad as everyone thinks we are now.

What I do want to look at are ten of the more prominent results in Irish rugby over the past two years and how the age-old Irish (sporting) psyche, which we thought we’d put behind us, appears to burn as strong as ever. Expectation? No thanks. But don’t give us a chance in hell and you might just regret it.

6 Nations 2015, Game 5: Scotland 10 – Ireland 40

After losing in Cardiff in round three, Ireland entered the final day level on points with England and Wales. After the Welsh put a cricket score on Italy, Ireland needed to win by 21 points or more and then hope England didn’t better their effort. You could argue that this was pressure; but covering that spread against Scotland wasn’t likely and so, with the shackles off, we played some lovely stuff to win by 30 and take the title.

RWC 2015, Quarter Final: Ireland 20 – Argentina 43

After a big win over France in the last group game ensured we avoided the All Blacks in the quarters, there was an expectation that this was our time. But injuries hurt us, we never really fired a shot and the brilliant Argies ran riot.

Summer Tour 2016, 1st Test: South Africa 20 – Ireland 26

We had never beaten SA on their own patch. The squad was decimated with injury and without Healy, O’Brien, O’Mahony, Sexton, Bowe and Kearney. CJ Stander was red-carded after only 23 minutes. Seemingly an impossible mountain to climb but we gutted out an incredible win with 14 men.

Summer Tour 2016, 2nd Test: South Africa 32 – Ireland 26

Huge expectation of a series win after the first test victory. Led 26-10 with twenty to go but couldn’t withstand a late surge from the monstrous South African pack.

Summer Tour 2016, 3rd Test: South Africa 19 – Ireland 13

Expectation remained after the first test victory and dominance for much of the 2nd, that we could do something historic and win a test series against a below-par Saffa side. Battered their line right up to the 80th minute to get that all important second try but to no avail. Ever more so in hindsight, one that got away.

November Series 2016: Ireland 40 – New Zealand 29

All Blacks on a record breaking 18-game winning streak and fresh from six bonus points from six in the Rugby Championship. We hadn’t beaten them in 111 years and 28 attempts and were rightly given no chance by anyone. Played the game of our lives to make history.

November Series 2016: Ireland 9 – New Zealand 21

Expectation through the roof after the heroics of Chicago. There was a real feeling that we could somehow do the double as the All Blacks came to town. NZ came out firing and although we competed for 80 and had our chances, 3 kicks at goal was never going to be enough.

November Series 2016: Ireland 27 – Australia 24

Anticipation of finishing the November series on a high and ranked 4th in the world was quickly scuppered as injuries to Zebo, Trimble and Payne in the first half left the backline hanging together with out-of-position youngsters. It looked one step too far as Australia took the lead on 58 minutes but, with our backs against the wall, we fought back with a Keith Earls try and defended like men possessed for the last 10 to see it home.

6 Nations 2017, Game 1: Scotland 27 – Ireland 22

Expectation at fever pitch once again after the autumn just gone. Schmidt’s 3rd championship and possibly even a Grandslam on the horizon. Defend horribly in the first half as Scotland rip through us with ease. Fought back well in the second half only to throw it away once again late on.

6 Nations 2017, Game 4: Wales 22 – Ireland 9

After improved performances against Italy and France and the return of Johnny Sexton, expectations simmered once again that the Championship showdown with England on the final weekend would come to pass. Not to be as our Championship hopes were smothered by a relentless red wall of Welsh defenders.

Granted, I’ve left out many games over that period (including the damp squib that was our injury ravaged 2016 6 Nations campaign), but this highlights the supposed bigger games - W L W L L W L W L L - the consistency of our inconsistency is quite remarkable. But more so than that; it is painfully clear that the tag of underdogs is still the one which sits most comfortably. 

We thought the days of Roy Keane and Brian O’Driscoll had seen us move beyond the old give-it-a-lash underdog mentality. And for a time, in rugby at least, I think they had. But on the evidence of the ten results above, the fact cannot be avoided:

Pre-game expectation = post-game disappointment.

The reasons for this outcome, of course, are altogether more complex. There are more variables on which a game of rugby is won and lost than I care to get into, but one simple stat which may be a reasonable starting point is this:

-          Average number of tries scored in the four ‘low-expectation’ wins: 3.5

-          Average number of tries scored in the six ‘high-expectation’ defeats: 1.33

It’s obvious that the fewer tries you score the less likely you are to win, but what if it’s the case that, when expectation is highest, we play more conservatively or with inferior execution, and are therefore less likely to score tries?

Against New Zealand in Chicago, we adopted the caution-to-the-wind tactic of kicking to the corner unless the 3 points was an absolute gimme. We scored directly or indirectly from driving mauls on each of the three occasions that we did so. But that was a special day, a day when the stars seemed to align and everything we tried came off.

Since then we have stuck with the tactic of turning down relatively easy 3-pointers in favour of the lineout but, be it pressure or otherwise, time and again our execution has let us down and we’ve been left to rue the decision.

The final point worth noting in relation to this unfortunately reemerging pattern is more a tactical one than a psychological one: Sean O’Brien did not feature for a single minute in any of the victories over the big southern hemisphere three in 2016. The number 7 jersey was instead shared equally between Jordi Murphy and Josh Van der Flier over the three tests. This is of no small significance.

Sean O’Brien is a world-class rugby player and has been an incredible servant to Leinster and Ireland. But with the literal adoption of human wrecking ball CJ Stander at blindside flanker in the past 12 months, the inclusion of both men on either side of the scrum creates an imbalance. Carriers for days of course, but that means less emphasis on winning breakdowns and therefore less quick ball for Sexton et al to play with. And when you come up against a willing and physical defence like the Welsh or like New Zealand in the second November test, they lick their lips at the thought of the oncoming battering rams.

Murphy and Van der Flier are both on the medical table at present, but we remain spoilt for choice in the backrow; Peter O’Mahony, Tommy O’Donnell and Dan Leavy are all chomping at the bit. Any of those three would serve to offer greater balance and breakdown emphasis and subsequently a little more time and space for the backs to play with. Whether we will see such a change is another thing.

Selection aside, the consistent inconsistency, along with a general feeling of little hope against the world record-hunting English, might just mean that the return to underdog status is still enough to derail the Chariot on Saturday. 

Richard Moffett, TT2I

[thetoptwoinches-blog]

Episode 10 of The T2I podcast!

Six Nations week 2 reviewed, week 3 previewed, the 2 big games in the Pro 12 analysed, and the potential inclusion of 2 north American teams is scrutinised.

Fras and Mo are selfishly off skiing next week (without me, Lloyd), so we'll be back with you in the days building up to 6N wk4.

Cheerio for now

XOXO TT2I

[thetoptwoinches-blog]

Six Nations week 1 reviewed + week 2 previewed...

Fras drops some names, while Mo brings us an inside scoop - it's all going off!

Enjoy

[thetoptwoinches-blog]

Wales vs England: The Top 2 Preview

Quick Italy review

So, Wales did it – they beat the banana skin!

They saw that blue-tinted vehicle for embarrassment, they toyed with standing on it, and then they jumped aside – like a bunch of giant, potassium-deficient machines. Well done, Wales.

But wait, they failed to get the bonus point; they failed to score a point until the 36th minute; they failed to remember how to play rugby until there was an hour on the clock – what’s occurring there?

This was far from a classic Six Nations match or a classic Welsh performance, and, while it would be easy to feel concerned after the weekend, there’s also plenty of reasons for optimism, providing we learn from it.

In the first half the overly-structured Wales we all know and loath were back in full force – lots of phases of one-out single carriers, followed by Biggar hoisting the ball into the air. It was all very predictable and the Italians dealt with it accordingly.

Additionally, the Welsh ball retention was poor in the opening 40, with Wales only having 54% possession, compared to the 72% they had second half. You don’t always need to dominate the possession stats to win matches (just look at NZ), but in the first half on Sunday Wales were sloppy when they had the ball (granted, not helped by the weather conditions) and it showed on the scoreboard.

HOWEVER

Things changed in the 2nd half. Wales woke up; they held the ball better; they started making line breaks; and they started varying their play more. The introduction of Sam Davies played a huge part in that – he’s is much more adept at playing in a less structured system than Biggar, and his speed of thought was crucial to both Wales’ 1st and 3rd tries.

Ultimately, Wales came up (literally) inches short of a bonus point win, but with big late showings from the likes of Sam and Jon Davies, Scott Williams, North, and Warburton, I can’t help but feel positive going forward.

England up next

And so, to England. 5pm kick-off in Cardiff and the place will be jumping!

The old enemy are on a 15 match winning streak and, despite being far from their best against France on the weekend, they found just enough to get past the big French unit. This will be the test of all test – Wales are coming up against a team that have forgotten how to lose, and reminding them of that feeling will take a monumental effort.

However, England are far from full strength and this is without doubt the best opportunity to beat them since October 2015. Their usually brutal backrow was already depleted for the France match and, if the rumours are true that Tom Wood could d be out of the Wales match, it won’t be getting any stronger by Saturday. On the flip side of that, Wales are set to welcome Taulupe back, and I’d be stunned if he doesn’t walk straight back in at number 8, leaving Howley with a familiar selection headache: Warburton or Tipuric?

Personally, I think he should go for a backrow trio of Moriarty, Warbs, Taulupe, simply because it offers a greater balance and is undoubtedly more destructive than one with Sam and JT playing in tandem. We’ll see tomorrow whether Howley shares my thoughts (though he’s proved dozens of times that he doesn’t).

The next big headache comes at 10.

For me, Sam should have started against Italy, but I understood why he didn’t – Biggar is the incumbent and you don’t just go dropping your 10 at the start of the championship for a guy that’s only played a handful of international minutes. That issue has now been well and truly removed; he’s ready to start and he’s ready to perform at the highest level. Add to that, the fact that Biggar is expected to miss the match with injury, and all roads lead to Davies.

A 10/12 axis of Davies/Williams will allow us to truly compete against that of Ford/Farrell and I personally can’t wait to see those two ball-playing 10s go toe-to-toe.

Outside of them, both teams have players that can punish the other in an instant – in almost every position you’ll be seeing 1 potential Lion going up against another, so it’ll be fascinating to see which comes out on top. From a Welsh perspective, seeing North rolling back the clock to score Wales’ 3rd against Italy was so refreshing, and you can rest assured that England will petrified at the thought of a back-to-form Georgey (injury allowing) stretching his legs against them on Saturday.  

Wales–England is always horrid from a fan’s perspective. It’s a day littered with nerves, anxiety, light vomiting, sore heads, and, ultimately, either a sheer sense of depression or euphoria upon hearing the final whistle. Wales haven’t beaten England in Cardiff since that famous, tittle-clinching victory back in 2013, so I can only hope that, on this occasion, all of the above symptoms will have been worth it.

Predicted Wales 23:

Evans, Owens, Francis, Charteris, AWJ, Moriarty, Warbs, Taulupe; Webb, S Davies, L Williams, S Williams, Jon Fox, North, ½penny

Baldwin, Smith, Lee, Ball, Tips; G Davies, O Williams, Roberts

Predicted score:

Wales by 4

Lloyd Jones, TT2I

[thetoptwoinches-blog]

All aboard the Scottish hype train!

‘This year will be different’… ‘The best group of players in years’… ‘More depth than ever’… ‘Scotland can finally be a threat’.

All too familiar quotes that you'll have read, not only over the past couple of weeks, but over the past couple of years. Whilst I am an optimist when it comes to Scottish rugby, and I believe a win is well within our capabilities this weekend, I’m fully aware of how cruel a tournament it is and how difficult it can be to climb the Six Nations ladder.

At The T2I we’ve each done a preview of our nation’s hopes for the next 7 weeks, and as a Scottish fan my hopes are high; my hopes are that Scotland win the tournament and I believe that we can – I genuinely think we wont be far off the pace – but my expectations are different. You don’t have to be far off the pace in the 6 Nations to finish 5th, and you certainly don’t have to remind a Scotsman of that either. If you gave me a bag of cash and told me I had to stick it on a placing, I think the safe bet would be 4th, which, for me, would be hugely frustrating. 

Looking at this year’s tournament, Scotland realistically have to find 3 wins to class it as a success. Immediately you look to Italy at home on the final day for a win, and you probably rule out Twickenham with equal confidence on the penultimate weekend – that leaves Wales and Ireland at BTM, and France in Paris. Whilst Scotland’s recent record against Ireland shows promise, we haven’t beaten France in Paris since 1999 and we haven’t beaten Wales at all in 10 years. Taking this into account, a 3rd place finish looks fairly hard to come by.

Are things different this year with Messrs Gray, Russell, Dunbar and Hogg? In terms of potential; absolutely, they have all developed as players, can all break games at any moment and the excitement around the Scottish rugby community is not only a breath of fresh air but well justified. But, in reality, I just can’t help but feel the team screams a lack of steeliness, a lack of experience, the ability to ‘get the job done’ when the going gets tough. As Jason O’Halloran said mid week - Scotland are a few years short of having these guys running out with 50 test caps and as clichéd as it sounds, this is necessary to win tournaments. Missing Dickinson and Nel certainly doesn’t help that.

The hype train is in motion though, and I love it – as a kid growing up in the 90s, Scotland were a genuine threat, winning the tournament twice in the decade including 1 slam. I grew up looking forward to the 6 Nations as much as I did Santa Claus’ arrival (very sad existence really!) and expecting wins against the Irish and Welsh. For the last 17 years though, it has been a case of ‘BRACE, BRACE’, as the train derailed on its way out of the station. Scotland haven’t fired a shot, we haven’t been able to, whilst Wales and Ireland have been phenomenal, and England are always mightily competitive. France have stumbled in recent years and we managed to take advantage last year (maybe we will again this year) but to beat Wales and/or Ireland would be a huge achievement for this young group.

I feel they are still 2 years short of that steely peak – not bad, given it took BOD, ROG, POC, D’arcy and DOC the guts of 10 years before they managed to get their hands on the trophy for Ireland. They had a couple of minor pieces of silverware along the way, but not the one that counts. They revitalised the Irish rugby public from the depths of despair, lest we forget that Scotland had beaten Ireland 11 times out of 12 from 1989 -2000, the other result being a draw, and now look at them – hard to see past them (and England) for another tournament win.

I guess what I’m trying to say is that this whole thing is a journey. Scotland are well on their way and there is now genuine hope, from what was certainly despair not too long ago. But the journey is a long and arduous one, as O’Driscoll and Co proved. We don’t quite have the expectation that England, Ireland, Wales and even France still have, and we don’t have the experience as of yet, but this will come.

Will it come this weekend against Ireland? It will be so close, the last 10 minutes will be crucial and if the substitute props can hold up under scrum pressure that will go along way to helping. The team picks itself barring 13 and backrow – that’s a certainty we haven’t had in quite some time either, and it will no doubt help. Let’s hope the train manages to make it further down the track this year…

Expected Scotland Team v Ireland:

Dell, Ford, Fagerson, Gray, Gray, Barclay, Watson, Wilson; Laidlaw, Russell, Seymour, Dunbar, Jones, Maitland, Hogg

Reid, Brown, Welsh, Swinson, Strauss; Price, Weir, Bennett                        

Prediction: Ireland by 4

Fraser Hutt, TT2I

[thetoptwoinches-blog]

With the tournament of tournaments on our door step, there's really not much else to talk about...

[thetoptwoinches-blog]

Italy vs Wales - The T2I preview

Six Nations opening weekend – Italy away. The perfect opportunity to get the title momentum going or the ultimate banana skin? For perennial slow starters, Wales, this can’t help but feel like the latter. Indeed, since 2013, Wales have only won one of their opening championship matches, drawing one and losing the other two.

That solitary W came in the form of an unconvincing 23-15 victory against this weekend’s opponents, Italy, at the Millennium stadium. Back in 2014, when Wales chalked up that win, a narrow victory over Italy first up would have been just about good enough – get your bad performance out of the way and get out of there with your 2 points, job done.

But the Six Nations is a different beast this year, very different – the introduction of bonus points means that no longer can Wales be thankful for a scrappy opening win over Italy, because they’ll know for a fact that, as the tournament progresses, Italy’s resolve will start to wane; their defence will become leakier; and ultimately, Wales’ tournament rivals will be walking away with 5 pointers.

So it’s all doom and gloom ahead of the weekend?

Well no, not quite – because since that 8 point win 3 years ago, Wales have scored 17 tries in 2 matches against the Azzurri, with a +94 points difference, to boot. Granted, those victories both came on the final day of the tournament, but that really shouldn’t matter. The Welsh players should be licking their lips at the prospect of a try fest, instead of worrying about the Autumn’s abuse continuing on in the Monday press.

Look at England, for example. Last year they went to Rome in week 2 (after the Italian’s had made a great fist of it in week 1 away to France) and put 40 points on them – there was no fear about a potential slip up, just a ‘professional arrogance’ that they were going to win, and win well. That kind of arrogance is something Wales need to adopt, and quickly.

If the Autumn taught us anything, it’s that this team is so worried about losing that they’ve forgotten how to put teams to the sword. Just look at the Japan game – Wales were relying on a last second Sam Davies drop goal to save their bacon, while 150 miles away England were beating Fiji by 43 points.

So what do Wales need to do this weekend? Well, the old clichés of playing in the right areas and at the right times spring to mind, but they also need to play with an increased level of confidence and composure than we’ve been used to seeing of late. Easier said than done, I know, but such displays come with having a positive outlook, and there’s no greater positive memory that the Wales players need draw upon than that of their last trip to Rome.

Will Greenwood was quoted this week saying that under Sir Clive, he asked ‘how many tries do you think we can score against Italy?’ – Austin Healy said 9 and they agreed that was the target. They went out and scored 80 points and 10 tries. The Welsh players need to take the field with this level of belief, but also with the patience not to panic if it doesn’t go exactly to plan from the very start.

From a selection point of view, I expect Wales will start Leigh at 15 and Biggar at 10 – neither would be too big an issue, as they both started in Rome 2 years ago, though playing Liam Williams at 15 would certainly prove more of a counter attacking + offloading threat. With regards to the Sam Davies-shaped elephant in the room, if things aren’t going right after 50-55 minutes, then Howley must show the steel to bring the former World Rugby Junior POTY off the bench with enough time for him to have an impact. Davies is a bona fide game changer, whose delayed passing / running & offloading game will scare the life out of the Italian defence.  

Hopefully by that stage in the match though, the contest will be over, and I’ll find myself celebrating a much-deserved bonus point with the rest of the Welsh following in the Stadio Olimpico.

Predicted Wales 23:

Evans, Owens, Francis, Ball, AWJ, Warbs, Tips, Moriarty; Webb, Biggar, L Williams, S Williams, Jon Fox, North, ½penny

Baldwin, Smith, Lee, Thornton, Young; G Davies, S Davies, Roberts

Predicted score:

Wales by 25

Lloyd Jones, TT2I

[thetoptwoinches-blog]

Scotland vs Ireland - The (Irish) T2I preview

Johnny Sexton’s bloody limbs eh?

‘Johnny felt some muscle tightness in his calf’ came the all too familiar word from Carton House on Tuesday as Ireland ruled Sexton out of the opening game of this year’s 6 Nations Championship in Edinburgh, and likely the following weekend in Rome.

The bad news? No team is as good without Johnny Sexton in it. The good news? Although not ideal, it’s a hell of a lot better than being without him for the last two games against Wales and England. Having said that, though – and as is often the case with Sexton – there didn’t seem to be any clear indication of a return date. So, to that end, we must all just cross our fingers and wait.

Whatever the case, Paddy Jackson is now the man charged with steering the Irish ship out of the harbour and headlong into the high seas of Murrayfield. Jackson had a pretty good 2016 in an Irish shirt, starting 4 of the 6 games against the big Southern Hemisphere three and playing 63 minutes of the second test against the All Blacks. For the most part, the Ulsterman has looked assured and fit for the role, but at no point has he managed to banish the thought of Johnny Sexton from the viewer’s mind; it’s still very much a case of keeping the seat warm until the ailing master returns.

As Ireland return to the scene of his 2013 debut – an unsavory 12-8 defeat and a day to forget for those in green – Jackson slots into a team high on confidence and with the tournament favourites tag slapped on its back by many. The Ulsterman has of course grown much more comfortable on the big stage since 2013, but occasional lapses in concentration leading to costly wayward kicks and passes are still apparent in his game and you can expect the Scotland back three to be licking their lips at the prospect of capitalizing on any such errors. Cut out those mistakes, however, and Jackson, with the considerable assistance of Conor Murray, is more than capable of directing operations behind the dominant pack for which he’s been longing in the past few months with Ulster. Expect also to see Jackson’s formidable flat passing and running game on show once the piano shifters have done their job and he looks to release hot-steppers Ringrose, Zebo and co.  

Scotland, of course, will have big ideas of their own. Ever the great hope, they have inevitably fallen short of such hopes for as long as a millennial rugby fan can remember. This year however, buoyed by the success of a Glasgow team that will form the bulk of their starting XV, there is a feeling that things might finally be different. Ireland at their best will have too much for Scotland, but fall much short of that and expect this to be a close-run thing. If it weren’t for the injuries to Al Dickinson and WP Nel in the front row, I’d be close to calling this Scotland’s way. But those losses leave Scotland’s prop reserves very thin and, should Ireland find themselves in need of field position or points late in the final quarter, expect the Scottish scrum, anchored by two of their third-choice props, to provide.

Joe Schmidt will name his team on Thursday and given the injury to Peter O’Mahony and the lack of game time of Sean O’Brien, the team almost selects itself. Expect Kearney to use all the credit he has in the bank from Chicago to start at fullback and if Andrew Trimble doesn’t recover from a groin niggle, Keith Earls will slot in on the right wing with the in-form Simon Zebo on the left. Henshaw and Ringrose will resume their Leinster partnership in midfield and, along with others, will have the eyes of Warren Gatland upon them as he weighs up his options for the summer. As discussed, Paddy Jackson will join currently nailed-on Lions test starter, Conor Murray, at half-back.

Up front, captain Rory best will be joined by Jack McGrath and November sensation Tadgh Furlong in possibly Ireland’s most complete front row ever. Donnacha Ryan will partner Devin Toner in an all-business second-row and CJ Stander, Josh Van der Flier and Jamie Heaslip will pack down at 6, 7 and 8 respectively.

It’s a team that is familiar to us and familiar to each other. After the heroics of the autumn and a fine showing from the provinces in Europe, the bar of expectation is set high, and rightly so. With the best coach in Europe at the helm, the fans expect and the players believe. If (and it’s a considerable if) Ireland can overcome the tricky first hurdle, I expect them to arrive in Dublin on Paddy’s weekend for a Grandslam showdown with England.

There have been many top notch starting XVs in recent years but (2, 9 and 10 aside - cross your fingers) rarely have they had such squad depth. This allows Ireland to bring in quality to replace inevitable injuries and maybe even employ some squad rotation through games two and three before hopefully returning to full strength for a run at the title.

For now though, there’s only one job at hand. The game will be in the balance with 20 to go but I expect Ireland’s superior bench and winning know-how to get them over the line. Ireland by 7…

Predicted Ireland 23:

Rob Kearney, Andrew Trimble (Keith Earls), Garry Ringrose, Robbie Henshaw, Simon Zebo, Paddy Jackson, Conor Murray; Jack McGrath, Rory Best ©, Tadhg Furlong, Donnacha Ryan, Devin Toner, CJ Stander, Josh Van der Flier, Jamie Heaslip

James Tracey, Cian Healy, Finlay Belham, Iain Henderson, Sean O’Brien, Kieran Marmion, Rory Scannell, Keith Earls (Tiernan O’Halloran)

Predicted score: 

Scotland 19-26 Ireland

Richard Moffett, TT2I

[thetoptwoinches-blog]

New year, same old story…

In May 2006, Ulster young guns Rory Best, Stephen Ferris, Andrew Trimble and Tommy Bowe all started the final game of the Celtic League season as a last gasp drop-goal from David Humphreys saw them clinch the domestic league title for the first time. Overseen by another one of their own, the future looked bright for Mark McCall’s side. Had someone told you that night that ten years on, the resident Ravenhill trophy polisher would have no new material to work with, you might have politely told them to ‘take themselves off’, to borrow a Belfast phrase. 

Alas, here we are.

Of the homegrown names mentioned above; two shared the captaincy duties on Saturday evening against Exeter, one watched on as 24th man (head-scratchingly unable to get a place in the 23), and the other offered his increasingly exasperated thoughts on proceedings from the comfort of the BT Sport commentary box as Ulster’s slim European hopes evaporated into the Devon sky. Oh, and the final name above now plies his trade as the Director of Rugby at the current English and European champions – Saracens.

The damage, of course, wasn’t done this weekend. In round one, Ulster lead after seventy-two minutes in Bordeaux and were on the verge of the perfect start to their 2016/17 European campaign. Eight minutes, one particularly calamitous decision and three tries later, Ulster were beaten 28-13 and left with nothing.

It’s not that Ulster fans have had a completely abject decade without any hope at all. In fact, it’s the hope that kills. A quick trip to oxforddictionaries.com confirms that the term ‘flatter to deceive’ was seemingly coined with Ulster in mind. Those with a persuasion for the round-ball game might agree that they should share the description with Arsenal Football Club; and for those without such a persuasion, that’s unfortunately not a compliment.  

In the decade since their last success, Ulster have signed some marquee names to go alongside their considerable homegrown talent, and none more successful than South African World Cup winner, Ruan Pienaar. Since his arrival in 2010, Ulster have regularly found themselves in contention at the business end of the season in both domestic and European competition. They’ve reached 3 quarter finals, 3 semi-finals and 2 finals in that period but Saracens x 2, Leinster x 4, Northampton and Glasgow have ensured the Ravenhill trophy polisher remains hungry for work.

Ulster started this season with a run of five games unbeaten, but, since the Bordeaux catastrophe, they have lost 7 of 11. Stephen Ferris was unfortunately forced to hang up the boots a couple of years ago, Pienaar has his bags packed, and the great hopes of Best, Bowe and Trimble aren’t getting any younger. So where do they go from here?

It goes without saying that Ulster don’t have the swashbuckling quality of Leinster at their best or the unrivalled dogged spirit which Munster have rediscovered. But they do have a squad, a budget and facilities far superior to Connacht. This is a problem for Ulster. Last year shone an unwelcome light into their corner – it is possible, with the right coaching and the right spirit, to create a whole that is greater than the sum of its parts. Connacht proved this with monumental effect in winning win the Pro 12 title last year – one shot, nailed it. This had to really rankle up north. Whatever about looking over the hedge at Munster and Leinster’s glittering trophy cabinets over the past 10 years, the rise of the supposed whipping boys from the west had to hurt. Ulster now need to somehow find the ingredients to do the same.

It looks as though time is up for the coaching ticket of Neil Doak and Allen Clark. Right now Les Kiss’ DoR role appears to be safe but time will tell if that remains the case. The squad boasts endless riches in the backline. The forward pack, and the front five in particular, needs some bolstering and even then, they’ll be some way short of the enviable depth of someone like Leinster. But forget Leinster and, once again, look at Connacht. Whichever coaches come in must immediately get to work on somehow changing the mentality throughout the organisation. They must create a culture of expectation with the belief to match. Easy words to throw around of course, but, based on the evidence of the last 5 years, the lack of belief is glaring. In that time, you’d have a healthy bank balance if you bet against Ulster every single time a big game hung in the balance in the last quarter. The Top 2 Inches, if you’ll excuse me. For some reason, this team hasn’t yet found the ingredient required to cross the mental hurdle that has continually tripped them up when it matters most. A move to change this mentality has to be the first port of call for the incoming boss.  

In Rory Best, they have a man who undoubtedly has the quality and mentality to win at the highest level - his exploits in a green shirt over the past year alone prove this. If there can be one criticism, it’s that he hasn’t been able to instill that blatant resilience into his provincial team mates. With a few more good years left in Messrs. Henry, Bowe, Payne and Trimble, there is still time for a group which has achieved so much in jerseys other than white and red to finally put the hoodoo to bed. Alongside the eventual appearance of Marcel Coetzee and the continued outrageous brilliance of Charles Piutau, it’s time for the young but experienced core of Henderson, Jackson, Olding and Gilroy to step up to the leadership plate. The rest of the season should see the further blooding of players like John Andrew, Kieran Treadwell, Dave Shanahan and Jacob Stockdale – it is imperative that the standards and attitudes that are demanded of them each day are those of winners.

Only when these standards are met on the field with a desire to win at all costs might Ulster finally cross the mental hurdle and shake off the dreaded nearly-men label that’s hung over them for far too long. Until such times, they’ll continue to exude the very definition of flattering to deceive.

Richard Moffett, TT2I

[thetoptwoinches-blog]

We're re-dyed, rested, and ready to pod!

First episode of 2017 and there's plenty to discuss, including:

High tackles, HIAs, the return of European rugby, Lloyd's fancy new sounds, plus a quick Lions watch, to boot.

Enjoy!

[thetoptwoinches-blog]

The missing piece of the Glasgow Jigsaw… Europe

I’m not sure there is a club in Europe that can say they’ve had more significant matches in the past 3 years than Glasgow Warriors. Off the top of my head, 5 come to mind;

Leinster (Final) 2014 Ulster (Semi) 2015 Munster (Final) 2015 Racing (x2) 2016

And before you start diving for your history books or through Wikipedia to prove me wrong, I’m well aware of the subjective nature of such a comment. When I say ‘significant matches’ I’m talking games that have shaped a club, had an impact on a club’s DNA, or changed the expectations around an organisation. The likes of Munster and Leinster have gone through similar periods, and maybe Connacht are in the middle of one at the moment. The next mini test series for the men from Scotland’s west could prove the most significant of all; Munster and then Leicester back-to-back. At The Top Two Inches, we reckon that 5 points from the ‘series’ might just clinch it.

Some may look at those 5 games and say that the Leinster game was a loss and therefore not relevant. But Townsend is all about learning and he has never tip-toed around the fact he followed Leinster under Joe Schmidt very closely. Since that Leinster final in 2014 they have passed each of the tests presented to them, gaining a huge amount of knowledge along the way (none more so than from the Leinster match itself) and using that to great effect. 

Glasgow now find themselves staring European giants Munster and Leicester straight in the face. The prize, should Glasgow find a way past, is a place at Europe’s top table, with the elite of the elite. Following the death of Anthony Foley, Munster are absolutely fervent - they have won 10 of the last 11, beating the likes of Racing, Leicester, Leinster, The Maori All Blacks, Ospreys, Connacht, Ulster… and, of course, Glasgow – not once, but twice – along the way. I’m not sure I could have hand picked a tougher group of fixtures, particularly given the league and European group they are in. And should Glasgow manage to find a way past Munster on Saturday, they will still need to get something away to Leicester in order to ensure qualification, such is the task ahead of them.

Townsend has made it clear though, Europe is his focus, it’s the missing piece of his jigsaw and probably the only blip to date on his glittering Glaswegian CV. Each week the team have their meetings to go through video analysis and tactics, including fancy slide shows with agendas and important points. In 2013/14, each of the first slides read ‘our goal is to become the first Scottish team to win the Pro12’, this year the first slide always reads ‘to win the Pro12 and qualify for the quarter finals in Europe’. He couldn’t be more clear to the players, media and fans - he wont feel the job is complete without achieving the latter.

As per our previous article on Glasgow, when Townsend sets his eyes on something, he usually gets it. So you can bet your mother’s life that when Munster arrive at Scotstoun stadium on Saturday, they will have waiting for them a Glasgow team that is completely prepped and ready. He reportedly turned the TV off at half time during the Racing v Munster game last week, so his preparation and game plan is all but complete – he has seen enough.

It is now down to the players to execute.

We can sit amongst friends and say Russell needs to be accurate, the set piece needs to be flawless, and intensity needs to be through the proverbial roof! Of course all of this is true, and then some. All the cliché’s need to be adhered to this weekend – not least doing a job on Europe’s in-form 9, Connor Murray, and his merry band of backrow machines. They have to be stopped and Murray absolutely has to be got to, that’s the long and short of it. Whoever Townsend picks in the backrow, they have a big task on Saturday.

Will Glasgow be able to add ‘Munster (2017)’ to the above list? Only time will tell. Henry Pyrgos was asked this week if it was the most important game in Glasgow’s history, he wisely nudged the question towards extra cover, stating it wouldn’t be as big as the Pro12 win. In fairness to him, I think he is probably right, but it’s definitely a close second.

Fraser Hutt, TT2I

[thetoptwoinches-blog]

An evening with Toony and Finn…

When Gregor Townsend puts his mind to something, boy does he make it happen. Saturday had all the trademarks of a Toony masterclass; Racing were out-thought, out-fought and consequently out-played. Many of us saw the ‘1 tonne pack’ of Racing and shivered at the thought, Toony saw it and probably giggled to himself. ‘Come to Glasgow and be direct if you like, Laurent, but I’m just going to run around you, again and again and again’

Glasgow were the playground bully/speedster and Racing the (metaphorical) fat kid.

Even that, however, doesn’t do Glasgow’s performance on Friday evening justice. They squared up in the scrum, maul and tackle - doubling up in midfield to great effect on the latter – in short, they did the ‘fat kid things’ pretty good as well. Racing ran out of ideas quick sharp, and even the great Dan Carter struggled to muster even one moment of his usual genius, recording zero carries, offloads and line breaks (*cue obligatory smirks from Strauss, Harley and Wilson).

Zander Fagerson, at just 20 years young is arguably as big a find to Scottish Rugby as Stuart Hogg was in 2012, he packed up Afatia’s bags and sent him on his way before dealing with Gomes Sa. He also looked his usual self in the loose, showing good footwork and running some useful lines. He will be the first to admit he still has a lot to learn but his trajectory is beginning to raise eyebrows outside of Scotland. 

Finn Alastair Russell, ladies and gentlemen….

Talking of trajectory… THIS GUY! In my opinion, he offers something that other 10s in Lions contention don’t.

Not his out and out best game in a Glasgow jersey; in fact, I think he was better last week, but some of his touches this week were sublime and he wasn’t far off it. Coupled with the fact that he made it 2 masterclasses on the bounce against ‘DC’ means that it was almost more impressive, as a whole. His range of passing is a joy to watch, particularly for a Scotland rugby fan who hasn’t seen the like in quite some time.

He looks like he has time on the ball, gets his shoulders square but still manages to get outside his defender which allows Dunbar and co. to do their thing. And even more impressively, he throws his little frame about with absolutely no respect for his health. Apparently he is touching 14st, god only knows where he is hiding about three of those stones.

He has shown flashes of genius for the past 2 years, but to compete with the Sexton’s of this world (for a Lions jersey) he needs to do so more regularly. Luckily for him, it looks like he will have plenty chances to shine in big games over the next 6 months. He will be angry that he took his foot off the gas in the last quarter and possibly cost Glasgow a bonus point, but if he plays like that against the Munsters, Wales’, Irelands and Englands, then Warren will certainly be thinking of him come spring time. 

What now?

European success/qualification has long been the missing feather in Townsends cap, but such is the nature of the tournament that all this win does is put them in contention post-Christmas. It is unlikely that second place will be good enough in pool 1, meaning Glasgow HAVE to beat Munster at Scotstoun and it will take another mammoth effort to do so.

Munster’s loss to Leicester doesn’t help Glasgow greatly as it leaves the English side in with a shout (just), and keeps them on track for a possible showdown at Welford Road on the last day. Both Munster and Leicester now get the luxury of facing a French side that are out of the running and both will hope for 5 points in those games. Glasgow can end Leicester’s hopes by beating Munster, taking them out of reach and leaving a game at Welford Road that holds only pride at stake for the midlands men. Lose to Munster and it could be the end of the line. 

Welcome to the European table Glasgow and Scotland fans. Hold on tight.

Fraser Hutt, The Top Two Inches

For more T2I thoughts:

Follow us here - https://twitter.com/TheT2I

Or listen to us here - https://itunes.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-top-two-inches-podcast/id1168958070?mt=2

[thetoptwoinches-blog]

TT2I – Big Fat Rugby Quiz of 2016

It will come as no surprise to T2I devotees that we’re big fans of a quiz. In fact, we’re so daft for them, we force our listeners to endure our quizzing for 10-15 minutes each week.

But, as it’s Christmas and all, we felt it was about time to let you all get involved too.

So here it is, then - our big fat rugby quiz of the year. The ultimate test of how much attention you were paying during the 2016 rugby calendar (and of how much “useless” rugby info your brain is able to store).

And what’s in it for you? I hear you ask!

WELL…

Truthfully, not a lot. But we can assure you that a trophy will be fashioned, your name will be added to the T2I Champions’ Board, and you will be filled with an immense sense of smug satisfaction.

Really, what more could you want?

To enter, simply do the following:

Email: thetoptwoinches@gmail.com with your answers

Make the subject line: TT2I answers + your name  

List your three greatest strengths and your three biggest fears… joking (but not really)

You have until 23:59 on December 31st to enter (wild NYE you’ll be having) and the winner will be announced in our first pod of the New Year.

Happy Quizzing!

Round 1 – 2016 Six Nations

1.     Who was the Six Nations top try scorer?

2.     Who was the top point scorer?

3.     For two points - across the tournament, which player won the most MOTM awards? How many awards did he win?

4.     France played Italy in the opening game of the tournament. Who scored the first try?

5.     For 2 points, which two teams produced the only draw of the tournament? What was the final score?

6.     On the second weekend of the tournament, England beat Italy 40-9. Which player scored a hat-trick that day?

7.     Scotland recorded a famous 29-18 win over France on the penultimate weekend. Who was named man of the match?

8.     England beat France on the final day to secure the Grand Slam. Who scored the first try of the match?

Round 2 – Summer internationals

1.     Across the Summer internationals, how many test wins did the home nations teams achieve?

2.     Which Irish player was sent off in the 1st their first test vs South Africa?

3.     Who scored the first try of Wales’ 3 match series vs New Zealand?

4.     In the second test vs the Springboks, Ireland let a 16 point lead slip away late on. Who scored the final try for SA that day?

5.     During Wales’ tour to NZ, they were beaten by which Super Rugby franchise?

6.     During Scotland’s tour to Japan, who was the only Scots player to score a try (not including penalty tries)?

7.     Who was the top point scorer (from either side) throughout Ireland’s 3 match series vs SA?

8.     Across the three tests England played against Australia, no England player managed to score more than 1 try. How many individual try scorers did they have (allowance of +/- 1)?

9.     During the same series, who was the Australians’ top try scorer (3)?

10. For half a point each, which 2 players scored 3 tries each for NZ during their test series against Wales?

Round 3 – Autumn internationals

1.     Across the autumn internationals, how many matches did the home nations teams win?

2.     In their first match vs Australia, who scored Wales’ sole try?  

3.     Who scored the first try during Ireland’s famous win over NZ in Chicago?

4.     Missing man – England vs Argentina: 1.Mako, 2.Hartley, 3.Cole, 4.Lawes, 5. ??? 6.Robshaw, 7.Wood, 8.Vunipola

5.     Which Scotland player picked up his 100th cap for his country during the Autumn?

6.     During the Autumn, which home nations player scored against the country of his birth?

7.     For one point, who scored Scotland’s only try vs Argentina? For a second point who provided the assist?

8.     Which player scored the winning points in Wales match vs Japan?

9.     Who was named man of the match in Ireland’s match vs Australia?

Round 4 – Misc. 2016

1.     Maro Itoje was named the 2016 European player of the year, but who did he make his international debut against in 2016?

2.     In the 2015/16 European Champions Cup, Exeter won their pool with the lowest pool-winning points tally across the tournament. Which other 2 teams in their group did they finish level on points with?

3.     Connacht won the 15/16 Pro 12 league, but which team scored the most tries across the season?

4.     After 41 test appearances and 113 for his club, which Premiership legend retired from rugby in May 2016?

5.     In the English Premiership, Saracens beat Leicester in the 1st of the 2 semi finals. Which 2 teams competed in the other semi final?

6.     For 2 points, which 2 players scored the joint most amount of tries in 2016 rugby championship (5 each)?

7.     And finally: for half a point each, who were the 6 players nominated for the IRB world rugby player of the year?

[thetoptwoinches-blog]

Another late night, mid week recording

We chat Heineken cup, Dirty Dylan's swinging arm, Cubby Boi's swinging hand and get seriously quizzical.

Plus Fras gives us the lowdown on his late night encounter with an All Black.

Join in x