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New Player Additions

The end of this shortened transfer window has arrived and the dawn of the new FPL season is upon us! The Wildcard FPL Podcast team take a look at some of the new players who have entered the game or moved to new clubs in the past 48 hours and assess how fantasy relevant they may be;

Bournemouth

Jefferson Lerma – MID 4.5m 

Bournemouth smashed their transfer record to bring in Lerma and he’ll certainly add some steal to the Cherries’ midfield. However with 19 bookings and no goals last season he might not be fantasy relevant!

Brighton

Martin Montoya – DEF 4.5m 

The former Barcelona and Inter Milan defender was signed for 7m from Valencia and looks to be a good addition for Brighton. Had four assists in 25 games for them last season and could be a well-priced option in the future.

Burnley

Joe Hart – GK – 4.5m

He finally has a home! Joe Hart walks into a favourable situation at Burnley who urgently needed GK cover after injuries to Heaton and Pope. Made is debut in their 0-0 Europa League tie on Thursday, he could offer good value as a rotational GK if Burnley continue to be tight at the back (particularly at home)

Matej Vydra – FWD 6m

The Czech international was the top scorer for Derby in the Championship last season with an impressive 21 goals. At 6m he could represent great FWD3 value if he finds his feet at this level (he had limited success during his last PL appearances)– definitely one for the watch list!

Cardiff

Harry Arter – MID 5m 

Had a limited impact at Bournemouth last season only playing 959 minutes but scored 84 points with one goal and four assists the year before. Will surely get more game time after his move to South Wales (although not in GW1 as the loanee can’t play against his parent club!)

Victor Camarasa – MID 4.5m 

Signed on loan from Real Betis the Spaniard had a limited attacking output there last year registering only one goal and zero assists. Not looking too relevant right now

Chelsea

Kepa – GK 5.5m

The World’s most expensive goalkeeper jumps straight into the 5.5m bracket. This was a given really but there are likely safer options to start the season here given the many unknowns at Chelsea and their transition to ‘Sarri – Ball’

Mateo Kovacic – MID 6m

The prodigiously talented midfielder has struggled for game time at Real Madrid and had only one assist last year. It is unclear at this stage exactly how Sarri will use him and so there may be better options at 6m.

Everton

Yerry Mina – DEF 5.5m 

Quite the day at Goodison Park with three intriguing arrivals and no more so than that of 6ft 5 man-giant Yerry Mina for 30m. Scored three goals at the World Cup and will offer a dangerous presence at set pieces all season for the Toffees – definitely one we’re interested in.

Bernard – MID 6m 

The Bosman signing from Shakhtar Donetsk looks an exciting capture and should partner well with Richarlison to give Everton some pacey dynamic wing play. Scored ten goals in all competitions last season; we’re very excited to see how he adapts to the PL as he could be an absolute steal at 6m.

Andre Gomes MID – 5.5m 

Signed on loan from Barcelona the midfielder scored three goals in 47 appearances during his first season at the Nou Camp. However he struggled for form and fitness in 2017/18 and will look to recapture that at Everton. We’ll wait and see if he does

Fulham

Andre – Frank Zambo Anguissa MID 4.5m 

What a day to be a Fulham fan as well! Anguissa was signed from Marseille for a club record 30m. The Cameroon international is a powerful and combative midfielder but may not be particularly fantasy relevant.

Timothy Fosu – Mensah DEF 4.5m 

The young defender was signed on loan from Manchester United having tasted first team action at Palace last year (where he finished the season starting at right back). A talented player and fairly priced, he could represent a good option if he nails down a starting spot at the Cottage.

Sergio Rico – GK 4.5m 

Fulham have now signed two goalkeepers this season and both Rico and Fabri come to the club with a good European pedigree. Rico has signed on loan from Seville where he kept 9 clean sheets in 24 appearances last season. Whoever wins the starting job here will be an interesting rotational option, but we will have to wait and see who that is

Joe Bryan – DEF 5m 

One of the more intriguing signings of the day, the defender signed for 6m from Bristol City where he excelled at left back last season. Bryan scored seven goals and had three assists in the Championship and could form an exciting partnership with England starlet Ryan Sessegnon on the left for Fulham

Luciano Vietto FWD 5.5m 

After bursting on the scene with Villareal with 12 goals in 2014/15 the 23 year old Argentina has seen his progress stall at Athletico Madrid. Young and clearly talented it will be interesting to see how/if he settles

Huddersfield

Isaac Mbenza – MID 6m 

The 22 year old Belgian is on loan from Montpellier where he scored eight Ligue 1 goals last season. Certainly one to watch, if he gets hot he good offer good value at 6m in the right match ups.

Leicester

Filip Benkovic & Caglar Söyüncü -DEF 5m 

When it was rumoured that Leicester were lining up deals for two new centre backs Twitter went into overdrive with people and pundits convinced that this would pave the way for Harry Maguire to move to Man Utd. But the England star is still there along with recent signing Jonny Evans and stalwart Wes Morgan to give Claude Puel a plethora of options at CB. Given their 5m price tags we’ll need to wait and see whether these two talented youngsters can win a starting place this season (question to fans – does this signal a swap to a back three for the Foxes?)

Newcastle

Federico Fernandez – DEF 4.5m 

A frugal summer for Newcastle who banked a profit during the transfer window but did address some of their squad’s needs with some shrewd acquisitions. Fernandez has featured regularly for Swansea in recent years and could offer good fantasy value is Rafa & Co keep delivering regular clean sheets (particularly at the soon to be renamed House of Fraser Arena!)

Southampton

Danny Ings – FWD 5.5m 

This could be the best fantasy value signing of the summer! A fit and firing Danny Ings, at 5.5m, could be an absolute steal if he hits the ground running and looks an astute signing on loan for the Saints. Ings goes straight to the top of our Wildcard Watchlist.

West Ham

Lucas Perez FWD 6.5m 

Perez struggled at Arsenal and was hardly prolific when on loan at former club Deportivo in Spain last season (9 goals). 6.5m seems a reach here.

Carlos Sanchez MID 4.5m 

The former Villa midfielder and Colombian international was the final signing of a busy summer for the Irons. He offers limited fantasy appeal given his lack of goal and assist production. 

Wolves

Leander Dendoncker – MID 4.5m 

The Belgian international has been highly touted in Europe for a while now and featured for Belgium at this summer’s World Cup. Still only 23 he represents another quality addition for the ambitious Wolves and actually has a reasonable goalscoring pedigree from midfield. An exiting talent, we’re looking forward to seeing if he can be fantasy relevant this season.

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Deep Dives Part 2

With just one week to go until the start of the new FPL season we look at some Deep Dive picks from the second half of the Premier League teams

Leicester City - Kelechi Iheanacho FWD 6.0m (0.7% selected) 

Iheanacho had flashed potential at Manchester City for a number of years and the future looked bright for him after securing a £25m move to Leicester City last summer. His first season at the King Power will not live long in the memory as he struggled with form and fitness completing just 818 Premier League minutes and registering three goals and four assists. He has a full pre-season under his belt now and has scored two goals already. Clearly a talented player it isn’t too hard to see a bounce back season for him and he may get some early chances to stake a claim in the side if Jamie Vardy’s World Cup excursions keep him out of the side early on.

Liverpool – Daniel Sturridge FWD 6.0m (0.4%)

This is the quintessential ‘deep dive’ pick; lots of pieces need to fall into place for this to happen BUT (and it’s a big but) if they do this could be an absolute gem of a selection. Sturridge is back at Liverpool after an injury afflicted (surprise surprise) loan spell at West Brom last year. He’s fit and has been playing regularly in pre-season, chipping in with another goal in their drubbing of Man Utd (and four preseason goals in total). This led Jurgen Klopp to comment that  "Daniel is an outstanding player. If he is fit, he will play a role in the team." That role could be bigger at the beginning of the season if Roberto Firminio is eased back into action after the World Cup. A fit Daniel Sturridge is still the most clinical finisher in this Liverpool squad.

Man City – Ilkay Gündogan MID 5.5m (1.5%)

Gündogan has always looked a classy player when on the pitch for City and is well thought of by manager Pep Guardiola. Injury problems has restricted his appearances over the past two seasons but he has been an effective fantasy contributor when available; he completed 1504 minutes with four goals and two assists. This effectively means he met his Points : Pounds (P:P) ratio for last year (82 points) in only half a season of game time. With Yaya Toure now gone and no additional midfield reinforcements brought in a fit Gündogan could see an uptick in minutes and points, making him a steal at 5.5m.

Man Utd – Luke Shaw DEF 5m (2.5%)

It’s fair to say that Luke Shaw has not had an easy ride since his big money move to Man Utd four years ago; the horrific leg break coupled with very public criticism from his manager led many to believe that his time might be up here. Despite this he’ll start the season at United and will likely get a chance to establish himself in the first eleven due to Ashley Young’s involvement in the World Cup. With his contract up at the end of season this is a massive make or break season for him and represents good fantasy value, at least to start the season, in light of Man Utd’s relatively easy early fixtures.

Newcastle - DeAndre Yedlin 4.5m (1.8%)

As discussed on the Pod there isn’t a huge amount to like fantasy wise at Newcastle this season (although it looks like they might finally be making some transfer moves and I’m interested to see what price Yoshinori Muto will have). For the cost their defence offered some sneaky good value last year as Newcastle kept 9 clean sheets. Yedlin was their second highest scoring defender last year and likely starts every week. You’d expect a Benitez coached team to be defensively solid (particularly at home) and therefore Yedlin could offer a middling ceiling at a good price point (he also chipped in with two assists last year, potentially giving an extra dimension to his total).

Southampton –  Jan Bednarek DEF 4.0m (5.6%)

Just 22 years old, Bednarek signed for the Saints last summer but didn’t make his league debut until the April defeat to Chelsea at St Marys (scoring their second goal in the process). The youngster was selected by Poland for their (admittedly disappointing) World Cup campaign and netted a goal for them during their consolation win over Japan. Bednarek has some competition for a starting berth this season but Southampton are likely to line up with three CBs this year (thanks to Reddit user Kkiks for pointing this out to the Pod!) which increases his chances. One to watch, but could be a bargain at 4.0m.

Spurs – Lucas Moura MID 7.0m (2.1%)

Once touted as the next big thing from Brazil, Lucas Moura moved to Spurs in January after failing to nail down a starting place at PSG (who also needed to recoup funds after their galactico style spending spree the summer before). Moura didn’t get a lot of game time last year, completing only 206 minutes with one assist, but has looked sharp in preseason and netted a brace against Roma last week. Another player who may benefit from more game time early in the season due to World Cup disruption, Moura carries some risk due to the 7m price tag. If he gets a chance early and starts well, he could offer good value as a middle priced MID option.

Watford – Will Hughes MID 5m (0.4%)

Will Hughes had an injury disrupted first season in the Premier League with Watford but flashed a lot of potential when available; his 53 FPL points came off just 987 minutes and included two goals and three assists. There are early season fitness question marks surrounding a number of Watford midfielders and the Hornets’ early season fixtures are not too bad. Hughes could have an early opportunity to shine could represent good value at 5m.

West Ham – Issa Diop DEF 4.5m (1.3%) 

It has been an exciting summer at West Ham who have broken their transfer record twice over the past month. The time was to sign Diop, a powerful 21 year old French defender from Toulouse. Diop is highly rated and, given the investment in him, it is likely that he will be in the starting 11 this season for Manual Pellegrini’s side. West Ham have a tricky start to the season fixture wise but are certainly trending up and, at 4.5m, Diop could be a great pick here.

Wolves – Ryan Bennett DEF 4.0m (4.8%)

Bennett is not guaranteed a start in this Wolves team, but he is one of the few members of the squad with Premier League experience thanks to his time with Norwich. There is a lot of excitement around Wolves given the players they have brought in over the past two seasons but for all of the talent they may find themselves needing a bit of steel at the back and Bennett could provide that. If he gets a regular run in the side he could offer good value, particularly at 4.0m.

Let us know what you think - will any of these players make it into your starting line up for week one? 

Don’t forget to join our listener league - 602464-183698

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Bang for your Buck; the P:P Ratio

Friend of the Pod and FPL enthusiast Darren Holmes discusses the Points: Pounds ratio and how you use can use it to determine value as you select your line up

We all do it when we’re setting up a new fantasy team. You look at the £100M transfer budget and start filling your squad with Premier League studs. A Kane here, a Lukaku there, a De Gea in the sticks and a Hazard sitting in the midfield and before you know it you’ve left yourself with £8M to fill the 4 vacant bench spots. Then comes the painful process of scaling back the studs and sacrificing the big star names for lesser hyped ones. Slowly your team becomes replaced with 15 spots of compromised averageness, not too bad, but not that great.

One metric I frequently use to cut through the rigmarole for selecting ‘who’s in’ and ‘who’s out’ every pre-season is the commonly used P:P score (Points to Pounds). Essentially, how many points are you getting for each £1M you invest? This is a good way to ensure that your transfer budget is working well for you in every position. The table below shows a spread of some of last years most popular forwards and their P:P score;

You know the saying, “With a great price tag, comes great responsibility…. to score”. However, that doesn’t always end up being the case. The P:P score helps to cut through the glitzy names and high price tags and see where a good return on investment can be had for that transfer budget. The idea is simple, spend more budget on players with a higher P:P score.

Obviously, this method is a general rule of thumb and shouldn’t be taken as an exact science, nor should it be used in isolation. It works best when you weigh the P:P score up with the rest of your pre-season research. After all, who’s to say a player will perform as they did in the previous season? 

What I have calculated for you is the P:P benchmark score you should be aiming for at each position. Each positions P:P score is obviously different, as there are more DEFs and MIDs players to chose from that start each gameweek. Plus there are fewer spots for GKs and FORs in your squad. Also, the position scarcity for GKs and FORs means you should look to try and invest in bringing in players above the P:P benchmark score. This is especially important for those playing in DRAFT leagues as once those players have been drafted the pool of quality reduces quickly.

Below are the P:P score benchmarks you should be aiming for at each position;

There is a logic behind the benchmark P:P score. It looks at the top performing 200 players from the previous season and aggregates the mean at each position and then looks at what the upper tiers of each position should be achieving. As you add your FOR 1, FOR 2 and FOR 3 to your lineup you’ll notice that bringing in talent continually above the P:P benchmark score for that position becomes increasingly difficult. However, if you can keep an average P:P score across all your FOR positions above the benchmark that would be considered a good return on your transfer budget.

Other things you need to consider with the P:P score:

·       Beware of the one season wonder - There is typically a ‘regression to the mean’ for players after a big season. Don’t get caught overpaying for players who will unrealistically achieve the same feat as last season.

·       New coaches sometimes bring new tactics - Teams don’t always play the same way the season after a new Manager is brought in. Formations change easily and attacking teams can change to defensive teams quickly, a la Mourinho’s Man United.

·       New club signings can affect other players - Clubs bringing in new stars can mean previous players may not perform to the same level as last season. Although this is less likely for star players at clubs.

·       No P:P score for new signings - Bringing in new players comes with unknown risk, but sometimes huge reward. Unfortunately, the P:P score can’t help you here.

·       P:P scores don’t take into consideration injuries from last season - It works on the Total Score metric only, so you’ll need to do some research to understand if there’s still value in a player who was out for some of last season. This also goes for players who join clubs in the Jan transfer window last season. E.g. Aubameyang.

You can follow Darren throughout the season on Twitter @DWHPoker and don’t forget to join our Listener League at 602464-183698

[thewildcardfpl-blog]

(The Wildcard FPL Podcast)  Here's the second part of the preview pod. We go through the stacked teams in the second half of the premier league, compare similarly priced players and decide who makes the cut. We get too excited about Wolves, lament over Newcastle and disagree about Salah.

[thewildcardfpl-blog]

FPL ‘Deep Dive’ Picks (Part 1)

Fantasy seasons are often won and lost on ones ability to identify and capitalise on value picks; we’re on the look out for cheap players who can free up cash to spend elsewhere (after all, if you’re going to pick Mo Salah at 13m you’re going to have economise on other parts of your team!)

We’ve selected one ‘Deep Dive’ pick for each team; this is a term commonly used in fantasy NFL circles to describe a player with a very low (perhaps non-existent) floor at the start of the season but with the potential to provide outstanding value if the chips fall the right way for them. I’m typically not suggesting that you start with these players from week one but if the right combination of injuries, managerial decisions and transfers occur these players could become cheap, effective difference makers by the end of the season; 

Arsenal – Danny Welbeck FWD 6.5m (currently selected by 0.8%)

Danny Welbeck has seen his progress at Arsenal stall due several seasons of injuries. Despite the fact it feels like he has been around forever he is only 27 and appears to be back to full strength and fitness. He has a great deal of competition now, but could prove a valuable asset particularly if injuries occur to key Arsenal starters. He has premiership pedigree although lacks consistency. If he transfers to another premiership team (and there have been rumours about a move to Everton), he could represent even greater value.

Bournemouth – Jordan Ibe MID 5.5m (0.7%) 

It’s fair to say that Jordon Ibe hasn’t set the Vitality Stadium on fire since his big money move two seasons ago. Still a young player, he flashed his talent on a more consistent basis towards the end of last season, finishing the year with two goals and six assists. The talent is there, and you feel this could be a make or break season for him. If he builds on that promise he will have a clear run at the starting eleven, which could make him an attractive value pick. 

Brighton – Jurgen Locadia 5.5m (0.3%)

Signed for 15m in January, Jurgen Locadia had a slow start to life on the south coast with just one Premiership goal and assist (he was also signed with an injury which hampered his start). Now with eight months to acclimatize and a full preseason under his belt he could be one to watch moving forward. The club’s investment in him means he is likely to be given every chance to shine and he doesn’t have a great deal of competition (aside from Glen Murray although new signing Florin Andone might eat into some of his opportunities). The ceiling; a double figure goal return for a very cheap player. The floor; another goal scorer from the Eredivisie who struggled to make an impact in the Premiership.

Burnley – Robbie Brady MID 5m (0.1%)

The Irish International made a strong start to his first full campaign at Turf Moor (one goal and four assists) before a nasty injury in December curtailed his season. Now almost back to full strength, he should be ready for the kick off and represents good value at 5m as a set piece specialist (also has a keen eye for direct free kick and demonstrated by his screamer against Chelsea shortly after joining the Clarets in 2017).

Cardiff – Lee Peltier DEF 4m (2.4%) 

As mentioned on episode one of the pod, defenders who start regularly and 4m often provide excellent value. Peltier has (as it stands) a clean run at the starting eleven. The caveat here is that Cardiff don’t look particularly good, but Peltier has a good chance to get a consistent, if not spectacular, points total.

Chelsea – Ross Barkley MID 6m (0.4%)

Two out of the three midfield positions in Chelsea’s starting line up appear to be set but one is very much up for grabs. At Napoli Sarri had Marik Hamsik in that position, driving forward with the ball and scoring/creating goals with late runs into the box. Of all the players in the squad currently, Ross Barkley would appear to have the tools to thrive in such a role. He started in that position during Chelsea’s opening friendly this week and looked both fit and sharp (two words that have not been used to describe him in recent years). He has a lot of competition here and the floor is VERY low, but it isn’t too difficult to imagine a scenario where he starts regularly and contributes goals and assists throughout the season

Crystal Palace – Aaron Wan Bissaka DEF 4m (3.6%)

All the signs are pointing towards Wan Bissaka starting the season as Palace’s first choice right back and, given both their decent opening fixtures and management stability, coupled with his excellent price point, this looks like a pick with a ton of value.

Fulham – Tom Cairney MID 5m (3.5%)

The man who scored the goal to secure Fulham’s return to the top flight, Tom Cairney has been tipped to have great future in the Premiership (and possibly for England as well). Cairney has scored 17 league goals over the past two seasons and was widely scouted by Premiership teams last season (West Ham had two bids rejected for him in January). He’ll get his first crack at the big league with Fulham this year and has a great opportunity to make a well valued impact at this level (possibly more so than the other English starlet in this team, Ryan Sessegnon)

Everton – Mason Holgate and Jonjoe Kenny DEF 4.5m (0.4% and 0.3%) 

A combination of injuries and poor defensive play from supposed first teamers (most notably big money signing Michael Keane) led to both Holgate (37 FPL points) and Kenny (50 points) getting a decent amount of game time for Everton last season. Fast forward one year and with Phil Jagielka and Ashley Williams looking increasingly leggy, one of these two players could break through and make that second centre back position their own. If that happens, you could have a starting centre back for a good top ten team for a bargain basement price (the caution here might be that Everton are rumoured to be bringing in another centre back)

Huddersfield – Ramadan Sobhi MID 5m (0.5%)

Signed from Stoke this summer, Sobhi has flashed potential during his time in the EPL. Still only 21 years old Sobhi, with two goals and one assist in a limited role for the relegated Potters last season, will be looking to kick on this season and Huddersfield could be a good home for him. What makes this more attractive is that Tom Ince has recently moved the other way giving Sobhi a free run at the starting eleven. A player with 41 Premier League games under his belt already could offer some interesting value here.