tynnspace

[tynnspace]

How is China increasing its influence in Central Asia as part of global plans to offer an alternative to the west?

Introduction

Over the past decade, the ongoing tensions between China and the West, especially the US, have become increasingly severe, compounded by conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East, like Israel-Iran. In response, China has sought new development directions, notably expanding cooperation documents related to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) with all Central Asian countries. In 2022, bilateral trade between China and the five Central Asian nations reached $70.2 billion, a 40% increase from the previous year and about 100 times higher than when diplomatic relations were established, making China one of their key economic and trade partners (VOV Vietnam, 2025).

Global Business & Asian Regionalism Global Business

China's expanding footprint in Central Asia is a pivotal aspect of global business dynamics. As indicated above, Russia’s “northern corridor” is disrupted due to the war in Ukraine, China is investing in “middle corridors” and trans-Afghan routes that will connect it to Europe and the Middle East via Central Asia. These corridors diversify China’s trade access, reducing dependence on maritime chokepoints and politically unstable regions like the South China Sea (Bird et al., 2020; World Bank, 2019). For global businesses, this presents both opportunities in logistics, construction, and trade, and risks in navigating politically sensitive, authoritarian environments.

In addition, through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China has made large-scale investments in infrastructure development across Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and other Central Asian republics, constructing railways, energy pipelines, and industrial parks enhancing Asian regional connectivity (Bird et al., 2020; World Bank, 2019). Furthermore, China's dominance of multilateral bodies such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) bolsters regional governance structures which challenge the authority of Western-dominated institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (Julien & Mitsuo, 2018). This China-led drive for regional integration is indicative of a larger shift in world economic order, in which Asia, spearheaded by China, is increasingly emerging as a key pole of economic power and governance (Nurlan Aliyev, 2019). As the Central Asian countries continue to align their political and economic interests with China, they enter into a new Asian bloc that serves as a counterweight to the liberal international order, thereby enhancing the objectives of Asian Regionalism in geopolitical and economic spheres (Dadabaev, 2018; Julien & Mitsuo, 2018).

Socio-political issues

While the article primarily focuses on China and Central Asia, it also provides broader geopolitical consequences for countries such as Australia, Russia, and the United States.

China’s rise in Central Asia coincides with Russia's decline due to the war in Ukraine, which is intensifying pressure on Russia’s historical dominance in this region since the Soviet era. Not only that, Russia is being overtaken by China and has taken the lead in trade, infrastructure development and even soft power diplomacy (Dadabaev, 2018; Paul, 2022). 

The United States has been actively interested in advancing with Central Asian countries, particularly in response to the geopolitical fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine. As Washington seeks to isolate Moscow economically, it also aims to reduce its allies’ dependence on Russian oil and gas. Central Asia, with its enormous hydrocarbon reserves, particularly in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan which offers a potential alternative energy source. The Chinese developments in Central Asia not only limit U.S. energy access and influence but also contribute to the emergence of an authoritarian-oriented regional bloc that challenges the liberal international order supported by the U.S (Rolland, 2020). Moreover, China’s control over key infrastructure, such as oil pipelines, roads, and railways, could enable it to shape pricing and transit terms in ways that disadvantage American or Western energy strategies (Kolpakova & Kuchinskaya, 2015).

Although Australia does not have direct territorial or historical ties with Central Asia, it is a vocal supporter of a rules-based international order, democratic institutions, and transparent development practices —principles that are being challenged by China’s state-led model of authoritarian regionalism (Rolland, 2020). The partnerships with Central Asia not only enhance China’s access to vital energy and trade corridors but also expand its influence in international forums such as the United Nations and World Trade Organization, where it can now count on more allies to back its positions. This could thus erode the democratic digital environment that Australia and other liberal democracies seek to uphold (Wilson, 2020).

Implications

The implications of China's growing influence in Central Asia are numerous and have been mostly indicated above. However, one key implication is the erosion of Western influence in regions historically considered part of the liberal international order. If China succeeds in creating an alternative global system based on infrastructure dominance and economic interdependence, countries like the U.S., Australia, and EU members may lose critical leverage in promoting democratic governance, environmental standards, and human rights (Rolland, 2020). This shift is particularly evident as China offers significant "no strings attached" development financing through initiatives like the Belt and Road, a stark contrast to the conditional aid often provided by Western nations. This approach appeals directly to Central Asian governments prioritizing economic development and stability over political reform, thus diminishing the West's ability to exert pressure for internal changes. Furthermore, by becoming an indispensable economic partner through extensive infrastructure projects that intertwine Central Asian economies with its own, China gains considerable leverage, making these nations less inclined to challenge Beijing on contentious issues (Andrew & James , 2020). This not only reinforces authoritarian tendencies by validating a development model that eschews democratic processes but also gradually shifts global norms and standards away from Western-centric ones, potentially leading to a more fragmented international system where different values and rules apply (Callahan, 2020).

Policy issues

The Central Asia region is at a significant crossroads, courtesy of China's influence, thus raising many crucial policy considerations for not only the region but also other global stakeholders-think-tankers like Australia as well. The middle powers now need to respond strategically through increasing engagement in the region to counterbalance China's dominance. One way to do so is via stronger partnerships with multilateral institutions such as the Asian Development Bank (ADB) for infrastructure provision that promotes transparency, sustainability, and local ownership alternatives to China in its Belt-and-Road Initiative (World Bank 2020). Other possible areas of approach involve education, cultural exchanges, and capacity-building opportunities as ways of enhancing people-to-people connections that would match China's most potent other countries (The Geopolitics 2020). Likewise, they should keep close eye on geopolitical risks stemming from the country's extensive digital infrastructure, especially pertaining to surveillance technologies and governance of data that threaten democratic values and individual freedoms (Koncak & Almazbekov, 2022). Policymakers need, at a more general level, to think about how China's model of infrastructure-led regionalism mainly accompanied by political or governance conditions-might reshape regional norms and hence the strategic behaviour of the recipient countries (Callahan 2020). In this vein, it is now becoming most vital to form responsive, inclusive, and values-based regional strategies, which will see to it that the Central Asian states will keep the diversity in terms of economy and concurrently their political autonomy under the rising hegemony of China.

Conclusion

China’s expanding presence in Central Asia marks a transformative moment in Asian regionalism and global geopolitics. Through infrastructure investment, diplomatic summits, and economic partnerships under the Belt and Road Initiative, China is not only reshaping regional trade routes but also redefining power dynamics in Eurasia. This shift away from Western-led models of development highlights Beijing’s ambition to create a new international order grounded in strategic flexibility, economic interdependence, and state-led cooperation. While these developments present economic opportunities for Central Asian states, they also raise critical concerns around sovereignty, debt dependency, and the erosion of democratic norms. For global businesses and policymakers alike, understanding China’s role in Central Asia is essential for navigating the emerging geopolitical landscape. As the region continues to evolve, inclusive, sustainable, and balanced engagement will be crucial to ensuring that Central Asia remains open, diverse, and resilient in the face of shifting global power.

References

Andrew , C., & James , M. (2020, September 30). China’s Massive Belt and Road Initiative - WITA. WITA. https://www.wita.org/atp-research/chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiative/

Bird, J., Lebrand, M., & Venables, A. J. (2020). The Belt and Road Initiative: Reshaping Economic Geography in Central Asia? Journal of Development Economics, 102441. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2020.102441

Callahan, W. (2020). China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the New Eurasian Order. https://css.ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special-interest/gess/cis/center-for-securities-studies/resources/docs/NUPI_China%E2%80%99s%20Belt%20and%20Road%20Initiative%20and%20the%20new%20eurasian%20order.pdf

Dadabaev, T. (2018). Discourses of rivalry or rivalry of discourses: discursive strategies and framing of Chinese and Japanese foreign policies in Central Asia. The Pacific Review, 33(1), 61–95. https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2018.1539026

Eric, R. (2025). CPC | Trans Caspian Trajectory: A New U.S. Strategy for Central Asia and Caucasus. Caspian Policy Center. https://www.caspianpolicy.org/research/south-caucasus/trans-caspian-trajectory-a-new-us-strategy-for-central-asia-and-caucasus

Julien, C., & Mitsuo, M. (2018, February). (PDF) China’s “Belt and Road” Initiative: Mapping the World’s Normative and Strategic Implications. ResearchGate. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/322924320_China

Kolpakova, T. V., & Kuchinskaya, T. N. (2015). China’s “New Regionalism” as a Mechanism to Strengthen the Influence of China in the Global Integration Processes: An Example of Eurasian Economic Union. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 5(2), 109–115. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/306176265_China%27s_New_Regionalism_as_a_Mechanism_to_Strengthen_the_Influence_of_China_in_the_Global_Integration_Processes_An_Example_of_Eurasian_Economic_Union

Koncak, I., & Almazbekov, K. (2022). CHINA’S ECONOMIC AND SECURITY ENGAGEMENT IN CENTRAL ASIA: THE CASE OF TAJIKISTAN. Alatoo Academic Studies, 2022(1), 387–394. https://doi.org/10.17015/aas.2022.221.42

Nedopil, C., & Song, Z. (2023). China Green Finance Status and Trends 2022-23. https://greenfdc.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Nedopil-Song-2023_China-Green-Finance-Trends-and-Opportunities.pdf

Nurlan Aliyev. (2019). China’s Soft Power in Central Asia. The Central Asia - Caucasus Analyst . https://www.academia.edu/41711806/Chinas_Soft_Power_in_Central_Asia

Obaidullah, M. (2023, October 26). From Historical Bonds to Modern Alliances: Decoding China’s Relations with Afghanistan. The Geopolitics. https://thegeopolitics.com/from-historical-bonds-to-modern-alliances-decoding-chinas-relations-with-afghanistan/

Paul, S. (2022). The Common Theme in Central Asia’s Response to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2022/03/the-common-theme-in-central-asias-response-to-russias-invasion-of-ukraine?lang=en

Rolland, N. (2020). China’s Vision for a New World Order. Docslib. https://docslib.org/doc/3811830/chinas-vision-for-a-new-world-order

Syeda, K. R. B. (2019). The Emerging Political Economy of OBOR. Economy of OBOR. https://www.academia.edu/39142208/The_Emerging_Political_Economy_of_OBOR

VOV Vietnam. (2025). Attention Required. Vov.vn. https://vov.vn/the-gioi/thuong-dinh-trung-quoc-trung-a-lan-thu-nhat-mo-ra-chuong-moi-trong-quan-he-hai-ben-post1017002.vov

World Bank. (2019, June 18). Belt and Road Economics: Opportunities and Risks of Transport Corridors. World Bank. https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/regional-integration/publication/belt-and-road-economics-opportunities-and-risks-of-transport-corridors