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[unbounded-cardinality]

What to do with Google?

November, 1998

I entered Susan Wojcicki's home. Actually, it was her home's mother-in-law's cottage in the back. I didn't know who she was. I didn't care. I was there in response to a 25-character ad I had scrounged up in the back of the San Jose Mercury. It was late 1998. Everything was going digital, and I intuited that all the regular-thinking programmers would likely be looking at digital ads, too. That's why I scoured paper ads -- I had to think different, because the valley was already against me. I scarcely knew how deep that resentment would grow in the coming years.

First in line for my job interview was a guy named Sergey. There weren't many words. When he presented me a math problem to encode in C, I demolished it like roadkill. My Yale professors had taught me well. I only learned years later that he had been an NSF fellow in the graduate Department of Computer Science at Stanford, and that he would become a member of the National Academy of Engineering and one of the richest men in the world.

Next in line was a chirpy fellow named Craig. We chatted at length about indexing web sites and related questions concerning coherent persistence of data. Craig was a bright guy, but I was able to keep pace with his line of questioning. We circled around different strategies, and again, only years later, did I learn that one of our central talking points was what would come to be known as Page Rank. Craig himself would be recognized as employee #1.

Finally, I spoke a bit with a gentle, soft-spoken fellow named Larry. We exchanged a few words, and then he was off with a phone call.

The three guys I met that day were of course Sergey Brin, Craig Silverstein, and Larry Page -- the co-founders of Google and their first employee.

When we met, Google was hardly four weeks old. They were focused on search and programming in C and Python. I had retrained my programming skills on the new language of Java, and alas, we went our separate ways. Whenever I bumped into Sergey in the years that followed -- whether at a trade show or a Mexican eatery in downtown Palo Alto -- he was eminently polite. I don't care whatever happened to Sergey since then; I will always remember him as the youthful, nice guy who smiled and politely greeted me on the streets of Palo Alto.

June, 2004

I had just returned from East Africa, where I served in the Peace Corps while our country waged war in the Middle East. I scoured every resource I could for my next gig. I had to, as I knew elements in the valley would do all they could to block my advancement. I kept thinking about Google -- it's upcoming IPO, the wealth of problems they advertised on their website. I thought I would pause my objection to working for a search company and just see if six years later now I might find a comfortable place there. And if I made a few bucks -- let's just say after working for almost nothing in Africa -- I might just feel justified with a small windfall from Google's IPO.

There was no call back. There was no in-person interview. There was merely a brief email explaining that HR did not perceive that I was a good match.

The monopolists had arrived at Google.

Reach of Google inextricably embedded in the valley

Although tangential to the story of Google, I continue to benefit from its largesse -- as a consumer of technology, as an author of software, as an employee at start-ups financed by present or former Google staff. Google, in short, is so entwined in the story of Silicon Valley that even someone like myself -- someone whom the valley has notably marginalized -- feels a bit uncertain about a Justice-mandated assessment against Google.

You shouldn't break or share Google's data

The better Google's data, the better search results are. The better search results are, the better off humanity is in the aggregate.

These are statistical assertions. But I would say -- without ever having logged onto a single Google server -- that this probably is the case.

You can't just break apart that data. I submit that sharing that data is not that great an option either. That is, sharing data -- so the argument goes -- might level the playing field for search. But you have to imagine what this means: either competitors access Google server farms directly, or Google does a data dump and some competitor reproduces Google server farms. The latter is not going to happen -- no way. It's expensive and doubles our entropic footprint -- this amidst what might be called our direst hour of climate change.

So then does Google share access to its server farms? This is a dicey proposition as well.

Can you sensibly break apart Google?

I don't know enough about the firm's divisions or revenue profile to answer this question. However, I doubt if a conventional break-up would matter -- let's say breaking away hardware from search, or breaking away software services (GMail, GPC, etc) from search.

In any of these scenarios, you are still left with the big gorilla in the room: Google search.

Create investment pool by garnishing future revenue

I believe Google's importance to society is so immense -- I have called it a national treasure elsewhere in this blog -- that I believe any conventional anti-trust thinking here just does not work. But there are still ways to penalize Google's anti-trust behavior, and I propose one.

Justice should consider garnishing Google revenue and creating an investment pool for start-ups. The fund would be managed outside of Silicon Valley and advisably would exclude Stanford and valley interests.

This accomplishes several things. First of all, I believe we would see more venture deals per year. We would most certainly squander more capital -- but imagine, there would be more good-paying jobs to go around, and importantly, we would cultivate more young talent.

Compare that to now: venture companies are whimsical about whom they fund and how many deals they make each year. Meanwhile, a young Computer Science graduate may struggle finding her first job.

So in short, I am saying this: take money from Google and spend it liberally across the country, across everything. We will see a lot of start-up failures, but out of that destruction we will create something even better.

How large should fund be?

Large. Really large. For example, if valley risk capital is 100b, then achieving 100% of that is fair game, in my opinion. Valley capitalists will frown on this as it obviously would feel like artificial competition orchestrated by the government. My response: venture capitalists have gotten too conservative. Let's mix it up, and mix it up fast.

Whatever happens to Google sets a precedent.

Whatever happens with the anti-trust case against Google will surely set a precedent for other technology behemoths. So it's important we get this right.

What will happen with the other big players? Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and now NVIDIA.

Would breaking apart any of them make sense? Would breaking them apart now -- on what feels like the eve of an embattled world -- make any sense?

My general reaction in all of these scenarios is that government interference is undesirable. But we have to see the wider picture -- the macro-picture: these last 30 years have been a resounding success for a handful of firms and their employees, but that success has also coincided with a wider erosion in small businesses, a dwindling middle-class, and a notable uptick in drug overdoses.

Maybe what happened in the valley has nothing to do with what happened to the rest of America. Maybe it does. I don't really care what the answer is. But if I am going to spend money on America, I would do it sooner rather than later.

August 16, 2024

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We are going to win. Period.

Joe Biden: American Hero.

Will the G.O.P. replace Donald Trump as its nominee in this year's presidential election? Of course not. Why? Because it's inconceivable that Donald Trump would place national interests above selfish ones and withdraw from the campaign just as President Biden has done today.

By contrast, President Biden has reminded the world that America remains a beacon of hope for ordinary citizens. Leaders come and go, but national ideals like freedom and self-rule endure.

Electoral challenges for Democrats persist.

There are two kinds of traders: the quants and -- for lack of a better term -- the punks, the guys who trade on instinct and gut. Despite going through an academic regimen heavy on analysis, quantitative methods, and rational thinking, I am one of the punks -- often relying on my instincts for many important decisions in life. Sometimes I'm right, sometimes I'm wrong. But if my decision concerns markets, I enjoy the benefit of knowing in real-time the quality of my decision. That's one of the reason I love markets -- because they level the playing field in a way that, say, Sand Hill Road most definitely does not.

Rush to back Kamala Harris may be ill-fated.

The rush to back Vice-President Harris may be ill-fated. It might seem rational. It might seem fair or just. It might be cost-efficient. None of that matters.

We are confronting one of the most diabolical challenges in American history: a rank and blatant power-grab at the highest level of public life. Make no mistake. If Trump/Vance win, they will weaken if not destroy the dollar, significantly damage American competitiveness, corrupt the judiciary, perpetrate deeds that would likely bring Americans to The Hague for human rights violations, and leave responsible governance in tatters for a generation.

Vice-President Harris, for all her gifts, is -- as others have written -- a a vestige of the Biden era, which may sell in some quarters, but likely not in others. More concerning, however, is her distinct status as a member of the coastal elites. While that might be a strong selling point in urban and coastal venues, it's not at all clear how that plays out in the swing states of the midwest. If I had to guess, my instinct would be that Trump would do better than Harris in the swing states.

So where does that leave us: Whitmer / Booker 2024.

The most imaginative and daring suggestion I've heard thus far is from Nicolas Kristof of The New York Times: Gretchen Whitmer and Cory Booker. It makes sense. It will roil the status quo. Most importantly, it will energize Democrat constituencies across the country and, I would expect, especially in swing states.

July 21, 2024

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Democrats, now is the time to take some risks.

Biden nomination is DOA

As a Biden donor, I take little pleasure in acknowledging the pulse of widespread anxiety among voters: President Biden should withdraw his nomination for the American presidency, and he should do that imminently so voters can better evaluate eligible successors.

No one wants to be called a quitter or ineffectual or simply too old -- and to be sure, I've been called all of those things and more. You cannot go through a long life in America -- not to speak of a long public life in America -- and not confront what William Shakespeare called the slings and arrows of mankind. President Biden notably has survived precisely because of his habit of weathering the worst that life can throw at us.

As President Kennedy so eloquently said, it is now time to pass on the torch to a new generation of leaders. Not only that, this moment is one in which we should embrace risk -- taking chances that in a more stagnant moment in history might be discouraged or even impossible:

As others have written, a Gretchen Whitmer nomination speaks to many constituencies, preeminent among them the manufacturing belt of the American midwest. A Whitmer nomination would not only bring fresh perspective, but a more youthful one that hopefully will bridge this moment -- in talent and decisions -- with whatever happens in the next 20-40 years.

A Pete Buttigieg nomination might worry many pollsters. But we should balance those worries against the vastly deeper concerns of another Trump presidency. A gay president may not be what middle-of-the-road, family oriented voters want; but if those voters are going to support Trump anyway -- even fathoming voting for Trump -- we already are in a bad spot. I'll take a gay, Iraqi war veteran and Harvard graduate any day over Trump.

I have personal doubts about a Kamala Harris nomination. But a curious alternative would be Michelle Obama. With name recognition and spouse to an honest statesman and former president, her nomination would resonate with many voters angling to steady the ship -- that is, voting into The White House a known quantity without Trump's disruptive and antagonizing habits.

Flexibility will distinguish the Democrats

Anyone in corporate America will tell you that great leadership is flexible -- you have to be, because the one certainty in the future is that you don't know what's going to happen.

In the face of all the uncertainty in coming years, the GOP is inflexible with its nominee -- President Donald Trump. The GOP is not going to change candidates, even if polls indicate that voters neither like him nor Biden. The reason: because, dangerously, President Trump has taken over the GOP.

Meanwhile, the Democrats should project flexible and imaginative leadership by downgrading the Biden nomination and bringing in fresh faces for replacing Biden.

July 13, 2024

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Bega kwa Bega

For those of you who follow this blog -- especially my cohorts in Silicon Valley -- it is all too easy to get caught up in our daily firefighting, our political differences, our instinct for redemption in the face of the machine -- and I don't mean computing machines.

Whatever our personal battles -- especially here in the valley -- they absolutely pale vis a vis the heartbreaking experience of countless African children.

I usually don't make this kind of pitch, but I know the people at Bega kwa Bega, and I know that if you make a small contribution -- and $329 surely is a drop for many of you -- you will truly be helping out a kid for the 2024-2025 school year. You won't get anything back for that except maybe some kind of self-gratification. But somewhere out there, a kid will show up at school in uniform with a pencil and paper.

The list of kids in need that I'm posting here happen to be girls -- that's just the list I got. You can make your donation through PayPal by sending your contribution to:

BegaKwaBegaUS@gmail.com

If I'm breaking any laws by posting this, let me know and I'll make suitable edits.

List follows:

June 10, 2024

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Iran Attack on Israel: Putin opens 2nd front against Freedom.

Israelis and Palestinians have been at odds with each other for 70 years. Many of the reasons are well-known and, frankly, not much different now than they were in the past.

So why only since October 7, 2023, have Houthi rebels been firing on commercial trading lanes? It's not as if an Israeli invasion of Gaza -- however disproportionate -- qualitatively changed the picture. In fact, Houthi rebels were so decisively on the fringe of world politics that most observers -- including myself -- scarcely even knew they existed.

So why now? Why should any commercial vessel passing by Yemen be concerned about aerial attacks from the Houthis?

One simple answer: Vladimir Putin.

No one more thrilled to see a war in Israel than Putin

Here is a picture (courtesy of New York Times) of President Putin's visit to Iran only months after he ordered the invasion of Ukraine:

While opinions differ about the quality of nation-alliances across the world, we can all agree that Iranian support of the Russian incursion into Ukraine has led to a surge in casualties among civilians, the destruction of villages and cities that have no military connection at all, and continued Russian advances against Ukrainian lands -- advances that are notably unwelcome.

Iran drone and missile attack against Israel breaches grave milestone

All of Israel's public pronouncements through the years about being under siege by neighbors eager to see its demise -- pronouncements that, frankly, grew wearisome over the years -- must now be viewed through the prism of Iran's massive attack last night -- 300 missiles and drones by some counts. Moreover, Iran's attack does not appear to be a calculated, targeted one. Instead, it appears it was a sprawling attack -- an attack that mirrors Russia's own attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.

Said another way, if Russia is a recognized state terrorist, then Iran should now be viewed as its junior partner.

Nukes possibly on the way

We must assume the worst: that if Iran fired hundreds of aerial munitions at Israel, that arming at least some of those munitions with nuclear warheads is not far off the table. Of course, Iranian nukes will not be home-made. Instead, they would likely be Russian imports.

Absolutely irresponsible that U.S. Congress pauses Ukraine aid

Make no mistake: the big loser in the U.S. Congress' pause in Ukraine aid is not Ukraine. The big loser is Freedom. While members of the G.O.P. continue to pander to President Donald Trump's feckless whims, Vladimir Putin -- along with Iran -- are angling to weaken American resolve and military capabilities.

Divide-and-conquer is one of the oldest strategies. A Trump victory for The White House in 2024 would only strengthen the vilest enemies of Freedom.

"He's a good man." -- President Donald Trump of Vladimir Putin at Helsinki Summit in 2018.

A divided Congress, a divided America, can only strengthen the hand of our enemies. President Donald Trump's major platform ideal is the division of Americans -- by race, by wealth and class, by education, by everything. Because when he divides America, he strikes a cord with the most extreme emotions that people harbor -- their worries and their angst. That, in a nutshell, is the Trump revolution.

Is it any wonder China, Iran, and Russia also want President Trump to win?

April 14, 2024

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This St Pat's Day, you might think about the fragility of civilization.

The book sat on my mom's shelf for about 25 years. Civilization? Who cared. The Irish? Certainly not I. It was a thin book. When I once actually perused the first few pages, they merely reenforced my initial impression: this was some kind of historical note with a bit too much religion and decisively too little drama.

For whatever reason, about 10-12 years ago, I gave the book a second chance. What started out as mildly boring grew into an interesting story of western Europe and how, by way of religion -- in this case, Catholic monasteries -- humanity was able to salvage and even restore a great repository of ancient texts.

But in so many ways, the story was implausible. The much more likely happening would have been that we should have lost all the rich stories and writings of ancient Greece and Rome.

We didn't. St. Patrick -- possibly an orphan, likely a penniless boy -- was shuttled off to the Continent -- far away from what probably was an extremely hostile context in England. Somewhere along the way he went through some kind of religious metamorphosis, and then took it upon himself to erect monasteries across western Europe. These became store houses of ancient texts, which monks preserved through transcription. The monasteries themselves evolved into the modern university, and voila! -- humanity's aspirations for civilized discourse grew by leaps and bounds.

Civilization is under fire now

The forces of nihilism are at work. If truth is the first casualty of war, then civilization is a close second. As I write, Vladimir Putin is being re-elected in Russia in what can only fairly be called a farcical semblance of democratic choice; the leading opposition leader Alex Navalny -- died a few weeks ago in an arctic penal colony, and the only other candidate with anti-war sentiments was marginalized and then banished from the election altogether.

Here is just one photo (courtesy of The New Yorker) of Putin's war on Ukraine, now two years old:

A 2nd Trump presidency would further unravel civilization

In America, the leading G.O.P. candidate is once again President Donald Trump. We need not elaborate on his shortcomings here, but it should be obvious his leadership would further unravel civilization. It may be easy to dismiss such an assertion as rhetoric or electoral banter. But let's take a look at just a few elements in what a 2nd Trump administration would likely imply:

No doubt, President Trump would pander to Vladimir Putin. As I write, the Russian military is engaged in exercises with Iranian and Chinese militaries. Surely the American president would not pander to Mr. Putin under such circumstances. That unfortunately does not appear to be the case with Mr. Trump.

President Trump would embrace lies as he did in his first term. Worse, during a 2nd term, the cabinet and advisors around him would likely be less able and less inclined to thwart his prevarications. It's hard to know what that might mean. But the COVID-19 pandemic is a darn good reference point -- Trump simply did not care about the science and what the facts had to say. He in fact called COVID-19 a "Democratic hoax". Let's be clear: for the millions who died and for the millions who endure longstanding side-effects, COVID-19 did not feel like a Democratic hoax.

President Trump supported the bald-faced attack on The Capitol in the final days of his presidency. If he was comfortable with an attack on The Capitol, is it far-fetched to think he would be comfortable with an attack on the Supreme Court of the United States, or the FBI, or the IRS, or the U.S. Military itself? I would assert that he would in fact attack all of those and, indeed, all American institutions that are not disposed to his current whims.

I conclude with a familiar picture of the riot on The Capitol. This is what it means to see civilization die out. It's worth noting that President Trump sat idly by for hours as these riots transpired.

March 15, 2024

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No Doubt About It: President Trump is a Russian Asset

If it walks and talks like a duck, it probably is a duck.

All the fuss over Russian interference in the 2016 American presidential election now seems perfectly quaint. Clearly, President Trump is not merely aligned with Russian interests. Rather, he has all the appearances of being an actual Russian asset.

Nomination for Governor Haley could not be more urgent.

As G.O.P. presidential frontrunner, President Trump's invitation to Russia to attack Europe cannot be separated from the Republican Party itself. Europe is one of America's most significant trading and strategic partners. A Russian attack on Europe would, hands down, be a disaster for the world economy.

A couple of weeks ago, I called President Trump a bad choice for business. Let me restate my position: it is now obvious President Trump would be a horrifying choice for American business.

The urgency to nominate Governor Haley is now -- truly -- a national emergency.

What happened at the 2018 Helsinki Summit when President Trump met with Vladimir Putin?

The secret meeting between President Trump and Vladimir Putin -- secret except for translators -- is now surging in importance. What happened? What words were exchanged? What deals made?

We don't know. President Trump ordered his translator to destroy notes from that meeting. But we can draw some conclusions:

President Trump may not only want to scale back NATO. He may have made a deal with Putin to do that.

Putin attacked Ukraine in 2022. It is plausible -- entirely now given President Trump's comments over the weekend -- that Putin's ultimate plan is to invade other members of the NATO alliance. The most obvious targets: the Baltic states of Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania. But Poland, Romania, Croatia, maybe even Hungary would not be out of the question.

New World Order

If there is a "New World Order", as Vladimir Putin claimed along with his Chinese counterpart a few months back, it is now quite clear whose side President Trump is on.

SCOTUS did not stop President Trump. Who will?

February 12, 2024

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Sad Day for SCOTUS

When I briefly dialed into the Colorado case before SCOTUS this morning, I had in fact already viewed the outcome as a foregone conclusion. Why on earth would a conservative majority -- half of whom President Trump himself appointed -- side with Colorado? Nevertheless, there must have been something in the air, because when I saw the live-stream link, I interrupted my morning routine to tune into 10-15m of the hearing.

I wasn't disappointed.

There was the somber, austere voice of Justice Thomas -- the one justice who arguably has been bought off. There was the fiery intelligence of the latest appointee -- Justice Jackson. The ever so smart voice -- and smart in a bored manner -- of Justice Gorsuch. The slight slurs of our dear Justice Kavanaugh, who sounded like he had awakened to the case from a night of one too many drinks.

Who cared if SCOTUS was gonna give President Trump a pass. Who cared if Trump was gonna have a 2nd-go in his effort to take down democracy and dominate the country as its first dictator. Who really cared about that? No, the real drama was here, in the words, the carefully crafted innuendo that Colorado wasn't just out of line -- no, Colorado was throwing a long-bomb in one last ditch effort to win our country back from the dark fate that must surely await it if Trump wins again.

It was hard afterwards to square the polite conversation of the court with at least one question a lot of Americans may be asking themselves: if the court is going to give President Trump a pass on January 6th, then my God, just what are we in for if he wins?

February 9, 2024

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Trump Presidency a Mortal Hazard to Every Living American

It is shocking that this late in the 2024 presidential election cycle that I have to write these words: if Donald Trump can't even meet in his own competitors in the G.O.P. face-to-face in a public debate before a national audience, you can pretty much bet he's not going to have the backbone to face off America's most serious enemies.

He has invited violence upon The American Republic

During his presidency from 2017 - 2021, Donald Trump on numerous occasions invited violence upon elected public officials across the spectrum -- culminating of course in the January 6th riots, in which he, our sitting command-in-chief, did nothing while a mob sacked The Capitol.

Voters need to think about this. If in 2021, Donald Trump invited violence upon the 2nd highest elected official -- Vice President Mike Pence -- where would he stop in a 2nd term?

This isn't matter of Christians versus Pagans, or lies versus the truth. This is a matter of personal safety for every American.

Largest European war in 100 years, but Trump is pro-Putin

Vladimir Putin and his allies have made explicit nuclear threats against western interests, including American. Voters need to take stock of these threats: a nuclear attack on America -- on any place -- would be a catastrophic happening. And yet, during his presidency, Donald Trump made intentional efforts to align his decisions with President Putin's: dissolve NATO, disentangle America from Europe, roll back the Magnitsky act.

It would be one thing if Russia were a peaceful cohort angling to influence progress. As I write, the Russian military is firing missiles at hospitals, playgrounds, and churches in Ukraine.

And we want Donald Trump to be president a 2nd term?

This is not outlandish. It is despicable.

Top secret document that President Trump took home

Most Americans will never know what top secret documents Donald Trump took home -- the reason: because some of the them were absolutely top-top secret. Voters must assume the worse: that President Trump took home America's dearest nuclear secrets with nefarious intentions. What were those?

Voters -- but especially Republicans -- need to answer this question. If our national secrets were not safe in the hands of President Donald Trump during a first term, would they possibly be safer in his hands during a 2nd term?

It is, in my opinion, almost insane that I have to write this. Why is this guy anywhere near the 2024 presidential ballot?

CIA and FBI will suffer under a 2nd term

Our national buffer against threats, foreign and at home, has always been our intelligence services: the FBI and CIA. Under a 2nd Trump presidency, they would fall sharply under assault of an executive who is full of vengeance -- especially, I should emphasize, the FBI. This cannot possibly make America safer.

Again, it is shocking I have to write any of this. The people writing and speaking all of this should, at a minimum, be the people running against Donald Trump.

January 11, 2024

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The Perilous Prospects of a 2nd Trump Presidency

Clinton Presidency: 1993-2001

The conventional wisdom is that Bill Clinton was a brilliant president who oversaw a booming economy, a balanced national budget, largely peaceful relationships abroad, and the ascent of America as the world's sole superpower.

I never liked the guy.

From the moment I saw his first interview on television, there was something in his delivery that I intuitively perceived as disingenuous. Maybe it was my Texan roots that viewed an Arkansan president with suspicion. Or maybe it was the smiles. Or maybe the hairdo. Who knows.

But like so many, I voted for President Clinton because I viewed him as the least worst choice for our country. It was only years later that I learned -- mainly through 2nd-hand stories -- the perilous place we entered in the wake of the Clinton presidency.

First week of Clinton presidency

Reportedly, during President Clinton's first week of presidency, department heads across the government visited the Oval Office, but notably one -- the Director of the CIA -- was kept at bay for over an hour, waiting outside the president's office wondering if his meeting with the new president would ever happen.

One hour waiting for Clinton. Director of the CIA.

In the wake of that meeting, President Clinton proceeded to restructure national intelligence -- leading to the removal of numerous staff, the minimization of agents abroad, and the erosion of national budgets for the sleuthing that protected American interests for decades, both home and abroad.

Is it any surprise that 9/11 caught America off guard?

Not to me. By the time jets struck The Pentagon and World Trade Center, America had exactly one agent on the ground in the entire country of Afghanistan. (NOTE: I might have the country and number here mistaken, but the general point is valid -- intelligence services in the mideast suffered sharp setbacks under the Clinton presidency.)

Second Trump presidency would be decisively unsafe for America

If President Clinton -- unintentionally perhaps -- made America less safe, a second Trump presidency would be a perilous journey into the unknown. Here are the reasons why.

First, the quality of cabinet and staff members around the president is sure to degrade under a 2nd Trump presidency. The reason is simple: because entering Trump's galaxy is a fool's bet that you want get into trouble, too. Witness the credible cases against politicians who pre-Trump were widely respected. Who did Trump take down and how bad have they fallen? You can tally for yourselves. The question for voters is: would we have an operational presidency at all if Donald Trump is elected a 2nd time?

Second, a quality of both the modern G.O.P. and President Trump himself is what might be generally called "payback". With so many grievances weighing down both, it is conceivable a 2nd Trump presidency would be less about leading and more about vengeance. Can we, for example, expect a functional FBI that is protecting American interests? I wouldn't count on it. Recent history suggests, instead, that FBI interests would be hamstrung by Trump attacks and, worse, contending with the politicization of their own ranks. In short, a 2nd Trump presidency would be roiled by internecine struggle -- the kind that resembles what happened in Israel in the months and years leading up to October 7th.

Third, American business will suffer. This is counter-intuitive because the G.O.P. is decisively pro-business. Unfortunately, we have to confront the distinct character of the modern G.O.P.: that it is consumed with social causes (immigration, objectionable school curricula, political correctness) and will end up inflaming the country instead of focusing on decisions that might steer the economy forward. This, to me, is the real tragedy of the modern G.O.P.

Fourth, a 2nd Trump presidency would go beyond bellicose rhetoric and likely carry America directly into wars. My first guess is that Trump would tackle the "low-lying fruit" -- going after Mexico and other regimes south of the border. But I would not rule out a more expansive military footprint, either in the Pacific or elsewhere. A 2nd Trump presidency, in short, would neither have the wisdom of advisors that might hem in an autocrat, nor the inclination to avoid war.

Fifth, and perhaps most sadly, a 2nd Trump presidency quite possibly would see the erosion of the rule of law, a higher frequency of kangaroo courts and their dubious decisions, a suspension of habeus corpus within the union, the erection of something like concentration camps across the American Southwest, and a judiciary that is not independent at all.

January 6, 2024

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My neural network

Yale Law School

The books cased behind glass on the long walk into the Yale Law School Library were beguiling. Half the reason I went at all was just to get a glimpse of the latest titles; the other half was that the library was the only joint in town guaranteed to be open 24 hours almost every day of the year.

But it wasn't the law I was reading. It was articles about neural networks.

I had gotten my books as part of a graduate course in Yale's Department of Computer Sciences. Curiously, the math just wasn't that hard. The results, however, were startling. A simple neural network could organize words in a sentence -- seemingly able to recognize English pronouns, for example. Another could identify a pattern of some kind -- a character or some other bland figure.

The terror of a senior project

It's difficult to convey the damage my nerves sustained at Yale. By my last year, a "zing" seemed to have crawled up my back and made a permanent imprint on my mid-vertebrae; I lived through persistent discomfort that ultimately took years to assuage. To this day, I still put up with intermittent twinges of nerve pain -- literally the cognitive residue of what I endured as an undergraduate.

One source of panic -- albeit minor in the larger scheme of things -- was the senior project. While my peers were writing theses, I was tasked with drawing up some kind software and the analysis that would go along with that.

Neural networks: foundational to modern AI

I viewed my classmates as smarter and more interesting. When I chose neural networks for my senior project -- fully 30+ years before they would storm Silicon Valley and establish AI as the centerpiece of a generational evolution in technology -- it was hardly because of technical depth. In fact, I viewed neural networks with some skepticism: they produced interesting results, but none was analytical.

Physics had F=ma. Math had the integral. Economics had Pareto curves. Biology had cycles. But neural networks?

They were messy; they were unquantifiable; they were ad hoc and, to my thinking, randomly designed.

Only after a lifetime of technical engagement can I say with a fair degree of accuracy that when things are messy, it usually means no one has figured out the mess.

But what did I know?

I chose neural networks only because of those articles I had read at the Yale Law School Library -- the unmistakable sense that something different was happening.

Backprop at the heart of learning models

I didn't do anything substantial for my neural networks project -- except arguably take down the undergraduate compute-cluster more than once (I've tried to keep that story under the radar for a few decades). But it was a window into a moment that has blossomed into a daring future that no one is now sure about.

What's at the heart of these neural networks? A devilishly simple algorithm known as Back Propagation. With a sufficiently rich data set, a neural network acquires a sensitivity to patterns that -- nowadays -- is breathtaking.

New Yorker article

A recent edition of The New Yorker features several AI-related articles, but it was one in particular that triggered all of these reminiscences -- an article less about computing and more about the inexorable story of human pain that we bear so dearly.

Where is AI taking us? I'm not going to guess.

November 25, 2023

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open.ai: Is Microsoft's Investment now worth $0.00?

Removal of Sam Altman colossal blunder

When Elon Musk, one of the world's richest persons, acquired Twitter some time ago for 44b, it would have been hard to imagine the staggering decline in value that would follow. While Twitter -- which now goes by X, a corporate name possibly carried over from Musk's early involvement in online finance -- continues to have a noteworthy presence, the erosion in usership, advertising, and content-quality raises serious questions about the firm's long-term worth. If it were public, you can bet the shorts would be eyeing it with a vengeance.

Well, not long ago, Microsoft, one of the world's richest firms, purchased significant ownership (10b) in open.ai. It was, at the time, perhaps the the most prominent endorsement to date of AI, and that its heyday had at last arrived -- after, I should add, decades of fumbling and productization efforts that seemed to flame out just as soon as they had attracted notice.

But open.ai seemed real.

There was the backstory of a non-profit that had gone through years of self-paced deliberation -- not hampered by markets or, perhaps, even investors. There was the pedigree of its founders -- Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, Reid Hoffman and, of course, Mr. Altman himself. And then there were the downloads -- the dizzying numbers were startling, whether you knew anything about AI or not.

Is open.ai now worth anything?

The 1-minute sacking

Reportedly, the open.ai board informed Microsoft exactly 60 seconds before it formally sacked Mr. Altman. Let me spell this out in big letters clearly for all readers:

SIXTY SECONDS

If AI is supposed to be the most momentous happening in technology in a generation -- some have asserted that it is that distinctive historical inflection point dubbed "The Singularity" -- and its poster-child for markets was Mr. Altman along with the firm he founded, open.ai, then wouldn't it actually behoove its largest investor -- Microsoft -- to know what is happening with the firm's management?

Fallout far larger than Mr. Altman

We are living through the consequences of Mr. Altman's removal in real-time -- which is to say, no one yet understands where this is going. One possibility: there will be significant market backlash. After all, I would surmise, it is AI that has propelled a fair amount of share-price appreciation in 2023. Who will win and who will lose? We are all guessing at this point.

What should Microsoft do?

Pull out the 3.5" MS-DOS floppies and enter rescue mode, because that's where you are. The 10b investment is on the line. And it may be headed to $0.00. Dump the board at open.ai, reinstate Mr. Altman, and fess up to whatever major flaw in corporate structure allowed this chaos to happen in the first place.

November 18, 2023

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The Thorny Questions Surrounding any Conviction of President Trump

The presidency is a unique office -- not just in America, but in history. In some sense, a presidential election is the ultimate trial: you get elected when a jury of your peers, the American voters, decides whether or not you are the most suitable candidate to be leader of our country.

Is the Law the Law, or is the Law the People?

When the U.S. Supreme Court overturned abortion last year, there were widely circulated claims that the court was out of touch with American culture -- that most people supported abortion, that the court had simply made a judgement at odds with American attitudes.

All of this begs the question: is the Law the people's choice, or is the Law the Law? Is there some kind of inherent meaning of the Law -- that you cannot arbitrarily subtract or add from?

I would guess that most pro-choice Americans who opposed the court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade are also opposed to another Trump presidency.

But how can this be? If the Law is the People, and the People are pro-choice, then the Law should be pro-choice. And if the People are for Donald Trump -- convicted or not -- then shouldn't Donald Trump be president?

SCOTUS may be in a jam

A conservative court -- one that views the primacy of American Law -- would have to view a conviction of President Donald Trump as a disqualifying event; in short, the court would have to disqualify President Trump from the presidential election.

Much of America would disagree with that decision. There are a couple of problems here.

One, SCOTUS and the presidency are peer branches of the federal government. How, therefore, can SCOTUS disqualify President Trump from office? It would seem to go against the grain of the constitution -- especially the grain of a conservative court that reveres originalist thinking.

Two, if SCOTUS does not disqualify President Trump from a presidential election, then we may accept that SCOTUS allows for a possibly convicted American to run for president.

What would happen to the Law in a 2nd Trump presidency?

An equally confounding dilemma is how well the American judiciary would weather a second Trump presidency. If the Law is the People -- and I think a second Trump presidency would endorse that idea -- we can project certain trends (I leave these to the reader).

The question then will become: is the Law any longer the Law, or would it become something else?

November 6, 2023

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Deleting Honors Curriculum: probably not the right decision for Silicon Valley.

If the Hamas-Israel has left me weeping for humanity, closer trends at home have left me -- well, befuddled.

A major county in Silicon Valley has authorized the deletion of its honors curriculum -- while I don't have the details, I presume this is for public schools and probably aimed at secondary school curricula. Again, I don't have all the facts, but even if I don't, the bare-bones indications of what is happening is just baffling.

Silicon Valley -- home to chatGPT, Google, Facebook, Apple, Uber, etc -- in effect is saying, "We can live without the honors program."

Can this possibly be?

If we were running an Olympics track program, this would be roughly the same thing as saying, "Our runners will do fine. We're not going to stress their workout schedules. They'll run at their own pace, and when we get there, they will excel."

Let me share a secret with my readers: you don't achieve excellence unless you're challenged.

Where are Silicon Valley's leaders?

Evidently, somewhere else. This decision cannot stand. It makes no sense, is messaging parents and children alike that they warrant less than the best, and intuitively, it is mis-aligned with the valley's longstanding aspirations for excellence.

November 2, 2023

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In the wake of Gaza

Most Americans have no idea what or where the Gaza Strip is. I had a vague idea it was somewhere between Cairo and southern Israel. Finally, I jut looked it up on a map:

A mustard seed from Israel

The erosion of church attendance across America -- and I am thinking of protestant Christian churches -- no doubt has contributed to American ignorance about Israel. But it's hard to know whether religious involvement is merely a symptom of where we are as a people or whether it's actually a cause of more general decay in both values and knowledge. You hear both sides; each has its merits.

When I was a kid, Israel meant one thing: is was the land of God. It was where Jesus grew up, it was where miracles happened, it was biblical. When a group from my church brought back mustard seeds from Jerusalem, I stashed mine away -- nothing could be more precious than a small seed from The Holy Land.

Why and how could Gaza ever attack Israel?

Motives will become more clear in the coming weeks. Preeminent among them will be the cause of the Palestinians. But irrespective of motives, here are a few questions:

How could a non-state actor acquire 4,000+ missiles?

When did killing and kidnapping non-combatants -- video-recording the whole act and posting it online -- become ok? The obvious response is that this has been happening for decades. But a more proximate explanation is that Russia's war on Ukraine has normalized diabolical behavior.

Are there larger forces behind the Gaza attack on Israel that in fact wish to promote international conflict?

Will America get involved? It goes without saying that American interests will be aligned with Israel, but to what degree?

Will a coalition of neighboring Arab states stand with Israel and occupy Gaza?

The Chaos Seekers

I strongly suspect that mercenaries were involved in the attack on Israel -- that they were trained and armed abroad, and that their mission was calibrated to sow chaos -- in fact, an intentional effort to elicit a response from Israel's and America's war machine. But why?

October 9, 2023

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The Bookends of my Career

The Gene Age, by Sylvester and Klotz

Over 40 years ago, my dear grandmother purchased a book for me that was emblematic of an era of both real progress in our understanding of genetics and overhyped activity in private markets:

Coming roughly 25 years after Watson, Crick, and Franklin's discovery of the double helix, that era was one that saw the genesis of biotech giants like Genentech, and a flourish of promising if scary potentialities in the realm of improving the human condition. Somehow -- remarkably -- in South Texas, I got wind of what was happening, a kind of glimmer of the future that would have given pause to a young, imaginative mind looking into the pale, uncertain beyond. Recombinant DNA was precisely self-descriptive: it was the vehicle by which programmable genetics could be realized.

Well, just as remarkably, my interests moved on. Pointedly, they drifted into software and computers. So to my young readers, be forewarned: if you go down the wormhole of writing software, programming chips, wiring and linking up new devices, the gravitational pull is so strong that you may never escape!

The Gene, by Siddhartha Mukherjee

This summer, I picked up my grandmother's gift -- The Gene Age -- reread what I had merely perused 40+ years ago, and then in parallel, read another, more modern book: The Gene, by Siddartha Mukherjee. And what a story we have.

All authors here were Ivy-educated, and here is why I am so optimistic about humanity and where we are going: in these two books -- separated by merely 40 years or so, in some sense addressing the same general topic -- we have moved from writing and understanding that is acceptable, to writing and understanding that is masterful.

I don't see enough of America to comment accurately on progress across this giant country. I just see glimmers here and there. And this summer, the glimmer was hopeful.

September 2, 2023

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What I did to get through the biggest fire in California state history.

Smoke from the California Camp Fire of 2018 draped across my neighborhood for at least a week. Air quality was dreadful, in and outside of my living space. As I am acutely sensitive to particulate matter in the air, that week was especially uncomfortable. Headaches plagued me, and minor sniffles went from a nuisance to a full-blown respiratory infection. Here's what we did to survive:

We mopped the floor, more than once. Ashes may not be so visible, and it may seem like mopping is overkill. But this small effort did remarkable things for our residential air quality.

I left running 24x7 one of those HIPPA-compliant air filters. That helped, too.

We wore N95 masks outside. One morning outside, I also covered my mouth and nose with a wet cotton clothing scrap. That actually helped, too. The N95, I should add, never really felt comfortable, and at times, I feel like it cheated me out of sufficient oxygen. Moreover, I suspect the oxygen deprivation contributed to my headaches. So choose with discretion.

We kept our food and water covered.

We rehydrated probably more often than usual.

To contend with headaches, I took out my yoga mat and stretched out to keep my blood running well, especially to my head.

A rain -- either on Thanksgiving or the day after -- broke through the smoke, and when that happened, I donned my running gear and ran hard. My infection intensified, but my headache broke, and things got better after that.

June 7, 2023