warsofasoiaf

[warsofasoiaf]

if dorne could harvest the old world sugar cane, how much of an impact do you think that could have in westrosi crusine?

Pretty substantial. The advent of cane sugar and trade with the New World was a massive change from the previous sugar beet industry. Sugar produced from cane became a staple sweetener when it became cost-effective to ship it in bulk. Having it produced in Dorne would make it a true trade powerhouse, since the relatively calm Narrow Sea would make shipping it to eastern tradeports almost painless in terms of cost (compared to shipping it across the Atlantic). It'd be a game-changer, especially in the era of Daeron II where low-cost sugar would likely flood into King's Landing.

Thanks for the question, Anon.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

Opinions on Zohran Mamdani winning the Democratic nomination for NYC Mayor?

I think Cuomo is a disgusting human being, so I'm not sorry to see him lose. That being said, I don't think Mamdani will govern very well and I think he'll largely fail in the vein of Chicago's Brandon Johnson.

Progressive economics is largely a contradiction in terms, and reminds me a lot of MAGA economics (unsurprising in that they are both populist programs) in a few key respects - chief among them being the steadfast belief that all economic woes are the result of the malfeasant activity of an undesirable caste. In MAGA's case, it's usually foreigners and immigrants, and in the progressive case, it's corporate greed. Any economic pain must be the result of actions by this caste. This is a belief that is held true regardless of empirical truth, and the more studies produced that directly contradict it, the more the populists dig themselves into conspiratorial thinking.

Nowhere is this more evident that his absurd proposal for government-run grocery stores. According to the belief, this *must* be because of corporate greed, distress at food prices must be the result of "price gouging" to bleed the poor, hardworking people. The fact that profit margins in grocery stores are among the lowest across all commercial sectors is functionally irrelevant - the people are feeling the pain so the corporations must be to blame. Forget that in poorer neighborhoods in New York City, people primarily get their food from corner stores and bodegas, the majority of which are run by poor immigrants - so this policy will largely compete with them. It has to be because of those price-gouging grocery stores, because otherwise, something else is to blame. If the data doesn't support that conclusion, it doesn't matter. It's the simplification of economic policy to a shallow morality play. Which is a really *bad* place to base economic policy off of.

Similarly, his steadfast support for rent control, which has been overwhelmingly confirmed by economists to be policies that exacerbate housing supplies and increase rents do not functionally matter. The policy has to be to stick it to the evil landlords, because they're part of the undesirable caste. Rent control is popular, but counterproductive. But it does help the politically well-connected who donate to progressive causes. Because it's hard to govern effectively, but it's easy to make a scapegoat.

He's also planning on the standard subsidies to progressive rent-seekers, increasing the overall cost of housing production while not increasing the rate at which housing is built. This is relatively bog-standard fare for progressives; it's actually a big part of the Abundance movement articulated by Ezra Klein that progressives largely pad costs to their political backers via subsidies and counterproductively hamper state capacity.

His foreign policy perspectives do have an underlying alarming quality to it. His support for the Palestine movement is relatively normal by progressive standards, and I believe that there's a large movement on the right who try their best to falsely conflate support for Palestinian nationhood with support for Hamas and PIJ. But for a man who articulates a "universal support for human rights" and yet maintain his membership in the Democratic Socialists of America, who steadfastly produce pro-Putin apologia and minimize Russian genocide of Ukrainian people. This extends to the point where Russia actively brags about using FPV's to hunt civilians in Kherson - it's a genocide pure and simple - yet the DSA *needs* to believe in NATO expansionism myths and mandate the right for Russia to export instability to its near-abroad because otherwise a non-Western nation is a bad actor (shock and horror!). This is a significant problem - normally I wouldn't expect an NYC mayor to have foreign policy positions - but he's decided to have foreign policy perspectives and thus opens himself up to criticism. The simplest explanation of his position is hypocrisy, but I actually don't believe that mere hypocrisy sufficiently explains his positions. The DSA has really twisted themselves into knots justifying Putin's aggression, and the real throughline seems to stem from a place of severe anti-CEE racism, that Central and Eastern Europe deserve the sword for abandoning socialism. This isn't to say that Mamdani believes this explicitly, but that he supports a group that maintains this position and has been so far unwilling to separate himself from it. That he maintains his membership and doesn't so much as make a token statement against it is quite troubling.

-SLAL

[warsofasoiaf]

”Does a different type of kingdom sprout up around that tradeport area?” this always made me think of race for the iron throne once talking about the stepstones and in a thread someone said about a trading port. Would it positively or negatively effect westros if the stepstones weren’t for pirates but a Venice-ish place? There’s tyrosh and myr and bravos which don’t seem to have much impact on the westrosi plot points but then what would a Medici style family on the stepstones be like for westros (if that’s not to out there of a question) because didn’t Catherine de Medici end up marrying a French king so I assume it was good for the French but would it be good for the kingdom post Targaryen rule?

The issue I see is that this kingdom would almost certainly require constant influence of men and money to it, and the Triarchy would not be a fan of a kingdom which is located there (and would have the operational backing to cause a wrinkle in trade far more than a few scattered pirates would).

Thanks for the question, Anon.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

We know the three KG stayed at the tower to guard pregnant Lyanna because Rhaegar ordered them while he went back to KL. They must have heard of Aerys death and the fleeing of the queen and Viserys to DS. Okay, so here is my question, did they have an actual plan? They had obviously buried thinking beneath the umbrella of obeying orders, but once the baby was born what did they expect to do? Just stand there in the desert waiting for orders that would never come? Die of hunger and exposure?

Wait until the baby was healthy enough to t travel then depart by ship, more than likely.

-SLAL

[warsofasoiaf]

Madman theory does have a problem where the "madman" in question is largely a coward who walks back and declares victory.

Trump's use of military force definitely doesn't have a lot of coherence to it - there doesn't seem to actually be any interest in developing magazine depth in our arms industry which is something that we actually need to do if we actually want to pursue a hawkish foreign policy. The deployment of the MOAB is pretty indicative of the whole affair - it's largely a preening exercise where he gain a vicarious thrill rather than using the most appropriate tool for the objective.

I don't think detente would ever have been likely with Iran. Detente didn't stop the funding of deniable asset operations under Hizballah. I don't respect the neo-conservative's careless use of military force, but I think Iran has pretty much proven itself a bad-faith actor which turns me off the dovish position.

-SLAL

A response from Iran obviously targets American bases in the middle east which happened in Qatar. It would be nice to see something that resembles competency, but what are the chances that trumps goons are actually going to be surprised that Iran shot back? (And pivoting away from the pivot to China after talking about pivoting from russia)

From what I'm hearing, the attack on Al-Udeid was communicated beforehand to Qatar, which lends itself to being a performative effort meant to pacify the Iranian hardliners and preserve a diplomatic off-ramp.

Thanks for the question, Anon.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

Honestly this sort of diplomacy, where Trump largely dictates terms to a country with few palatable options while framing it as a "deal" is probably where he can actually thrive. When the opponent can refuse him or otherwise make him look weak, Trump throws a temper tantrum and seeks to settle grudges. Iran has few credible options on the diplomatic front - mining the Straits of Hormuz torpedoes oil trade with China which hurts Iran far more than it hurts the US or Israel. Firing missiles will put more strain on their stockpiles. Russia and China aren't likely to help.

-SLAL

A response from Iran obviously targets American bases in the middle east which happened in Qatar. It would be nice to see something that resembles competency, but what are the chances that trumps goons are actually going to be surprised that Iran shot back? (And pivoting away from the pivot to China after talking about pivoting from russia)

From what I'm hearing, the attack on Al-Udeid was communicated beforehand to Qatar, which lends itself to being a performative effort meant to pacify the Iranian hardliners and preserve a diplomatic off-ramp.

Thanks for the question, Anon.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

How is Iran even functioning at this point? The US and Israel can enter their airspace whenever they want, and seem to be able to take out their leadership too? Is this another case of the West misreading Iran's military capabilities like they did with Russia?

I don't think so. The primary means for Iran to defend its airspace are the Russian S-300, which performs remarkably terribly against US jets, and some domestically-produced models based on old Russian export designs. By contrast, Israel is primarily using the F-35 I and the US used B-2's. Both of these planes are hard to detect given their stealth capabilities, and so the radar for the air defense systems that Israel didn't blow up already had a difficult time detecting them.

In that sense, the published documentation actually pegged it down pretty accurately - Iran's biggest threat is blanket firing ballistic missiles into civilian areas but largely lacks the capability to threaten high-performance aircraft and has significantly diminished deterrent effect after losing Hizballah and Assad.

Thanks for the question, Anon.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

A response from Iran obviously targets American bases in the middle east which happened in Qatar. It would be nice to see something that resembles competency, but what are the chances that trumps goons are actually going to be surprised that Iran shot back? (And pivoting away from the pivot to China after talking about pivoting from russia)

From what I'm hearing, the attack on Al-Udeid was communicated beforehand to Qatar, which lends itself to being a performative effort meant to pacify the Iranian hardliners and preserve a diplomatic off-ramp.

Thanks for the question, Anon.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

This is the same mentality I had when folks talked about the imminent US invasion of Canada.

-SLAL

So USA just attacked Iran and destroy it's three nuclear facilty?! Are we seeing an iranian invasion lead by the United States and it's allies?

Probably not. Trump likely intended this to be a one-off strike with fairly limited endgame (destroy underground sites).

Thanks for the question, Anon.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

This is probably the most likely consequence.

-SLAL

So USA just attacked Iran and destroy it's three nuclear facilty?! Are we seeing an iranian invasion lead by the United States and it's allies?

Probably not. Trump likely intended this to be a one-off strike with fairly limited endgame (destroy underground sites).

Thanks for the question, Anon.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

So USA just attacked Iran and destroy it's three nuclear facilty?! Are we seeing an iranian invasion lead by the United States and it's allies?

Probably not. Trump likely intended this to be a one-off strike with fairly limited endgame (destroy underground sites).

Thanks for the question, Anon.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

Even more art for Tales from Mistland & Other Oddities: Volume I!

Captain Evans from @warsofasoiaf's short story, "Cold", by Fani Arjunanda

Feel free to like or reblog but please do not repost! All rights reserved.

[warsofasoiaf]

I was speaking hyperbolically, but I honestly don't see it as sincere belief. I don't see actions taken on his behalf in the four intervening years that suggests a sincere belief moreso than a conspiracy theory held onto for political purposes (see the "the DNC intentionally tanked Bernie" conspiracy). Neither have I seen any compelling evidence that the 2020 election experienced any statistically significant levels of electoral fraud despite his frequent attempts in the leadup to 6 January 2021 to find anything to call its outcome into question (his repeated failures to find anything add weight to the idea that there was no fraud - he wouldn't have needed to resort to such measures should he have found more compelling means). So I don't see it as a "foredoomed effort to ensure the integrity and faith in our electoral process" and more an effort to call the very conception of election into question so he can justify later efforts to subvert their integrity to prevent future losses.

-SLAL

So trump is looking to appoint a special prosecutor to investigate the 2020 elections. Honestly, how small and petty is he?

If we need a special prosecutor every time Trump's fifis got hurt, we're going to add another trillion to the deficit.

-SLAL

[warsofasoiaf]

So trump is looking to appoint a special prosecutor to investigate the 2020 elections. Honestly, how small and petty is he?

If we need a special prosecutor every time Trump's fifis got hurt, we're going to add another trillion to the deficit.

-SLAL

[warsofasoiaf]

if the eastern harbours you mentioned managed to just get to a realistic popular trade level with essos before it all kicks off in cannon. Would that make any difference to war if the five kings or even the plot?

It's possible. Does a different type of kingdom sprout up around that tradeport area? Does the Riverlands end up being split in two? How does that effect the Great Game let alone all the way down to Aegon's reign? It's almost impossible to worldbuild in a way that leads me to one conclusion over any other.

-SLAL

[warsofasoiaf]

Hypothetically if Aegon VI gets everything he ever wished (Dany as wife, control of the 7 Kingdoms, a new dracocracy, King's Landing not blown up), could he feasibly use the Golden Company to inaugurate a type of military revolution in Westeros? I imagine he would like to find some way of maintaining their efficacy even with dragons.

Unlikely. Maintaining a professional army is expensive and Westeros would really need to bureaucratize and improve their tax collection before they could fund a truly professional army. At best, the Golden Company would serve as essentially a highly trained elite cadre which could be supplemented via military service and conscription. The Golden Company could train some people and bring about some ideas, but if history is any judge, they will be irregularly maintained due to a lack of state capacity.

Thanks for the question, Anon.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

The left is stupid, because the left needs to say why we are woke. We are woke because the minorities are the ones that, statisticaly, most of the time, end up dying of hunger or being left out of society.

The left doesn't defend the minorities because "it's the right thing to do" (even if it is), but because making sure that the minorities are actualy part of society greatly diminishes the chances of them ending up on the street. Socialism takes care of the ones that need protection the most by making sure that society doesn't leave anyone behind. Fuck the moral high ground, I want a society where being LGBTQ+ or having the “wrong” skin color doesn't put you at risk at being kicked out of your damn house or being ostricized by people around you.

I'm also a huge fan of the fact that most countries had a better standard of living when the rich were more taxed.

The "I miss good'ol 'murica when men were men and women were women", 50's-60's, the taxes on wealth were huge, by today's standards. Big bridges, big infrastructure, big everything that are not maintained and don't seem to be built anymore? We were taxing the hell out of rich people. Middle class existed because the tax burden weighed heavily on the rich and not on the middle class.

But yeah... It's a lot more paletable to believe that the economy is going to shit because of immigrants and international trade... It's so much more appealing to help destroy the middle class (of course you don't want to tax the rich! You'll be rich one day, why would you want to have to pay taxes!) than it is to accept that everyone having a bit more would make life so much better.

A billionnaire is useless.

"YEAH BUT WHO WOULD HAVE THE BESTEST IDEAS WITHOUT THE MONEY ?" Statistically... The one's that actually got them and got either bought out or pushed out by the investors.

If you took Bezos’ money or Vince McMahon’s or any of them, you could probably help avoid having the teachers pay for fornitures out of pocket and, maybe, pay them a liveable wage. But hey, the far left will ruin the world, so let's make sure we vote for fascists to show the left!

“Both sides suck” even though technically true, as an ideology really does not help the situation. Be better.

Hmm, I give this one about a 3/10. No death threats which is always a plus, but a lot of self-aggrandizement. Also a "fuck the moral high ground" when the whole passage is all about taking it and grandstanding about how you occupy it just seems bizarre even by political rant standards. Typos and punctuation issues, but it is legible although incoherent.

Ah well, brush it off and better luck next time.

-SLAL