#Confirmation bias

[look-a-diversion]

it WORKED! just accepted a job offer!

[bethanydelleman]

The way that Elizabeth Bennet is tricked by Wickham is so important because it's confirmation bias and we are all so susceptible to it. Of course Elizabeth ate up everything negative Wickham said about Darcy with a spoon, it's what she already thought! Wickham checked first. Once he knew Elizabeth hated Darcy, he fed her ego by letting her know that not only was she right, but she was special and smart for seeing through Darcy's wealth and status.

"The world is blinded by his fortune and consequence, or frightened by his high and imposing manners, and sees him only as he chooses to be seen." - Wickham, Ch 16

The world is blind, but not Elizabeth! Not with her supreme powers of perception and character reading. She sees the "real" Darcy...

And then of course, the best warning Elizabeth gets about Wickham (and I'll admit it's not a great one) is from Caroline Bingley, a woman she detests (I cut out the snobbery around it):

"Let me recommend you, however, as a friend, not to give implicit confidence to all his assertions; for, as to Mr. Darcy’s using him ill, it is perfectly false: for, on the contrary, he has been always remarkably kind to him, though George Wickham has treated Mr. Darcy in a most infamous manner. I do not know the particulars, but I know very well that Mr. Darcy is not in the least to blame; that he cannot bear to hear George Wickham mentioned..." Caroline Bingley, Ch 18

Elizabeth's judgment isn't perfect, it's highly subject to bias. Jane Austen's understanding of the human condition was amazing. She set Elizabeth's deception up in such an accurate way it could be in a modern social psychology textbook. Of course she believed Wickham; of course she discounted Caroline, it's human nature.

[dantesjourney]

I really wish more people on the left/blue side of things in the US would start verifying things before sharing. There is twisted information on both sides, and I'm seeing so many people doing the exact same thing we like to crucify the right for - sharing/reposting/amplifying something just because it alines with our beliefs/fears/narrative. Without fact checking or independent verification.

Search engines are free.

Idc how much you trust the source - even trusted, reliable sources can be wrong sometimes. Verify it for yourself.

I'm not saying they're necessarily willfully lying to us. There is so much information coming at all of us at such an incredible rate that it is easy to misunderstand, misinterpret, misread, take something out of context or simply get swept up in the emotion of it all and forget to fact check.

Also, we're only human. Those of us with a working moral compass, a heart and more than two functioning brain cells are quite rightly terrified/experiencing a rollercoaster of emotions. It is easy to get caught up in that to the point that it takes over. Stop. Take a deep breath. Back away from the social media and go look it up with a proper search engine. Sometimes you might be pleasantly surprised.

This entire situation is exhausting enough without repeated facepalms from seeing people I know and love on the left spreading misinformation simply because it is plausible and/or aligns with the narrative they want.

[creature-wizard]

What's so bad about angel numbers?

So the main problem with angel numbers that I see, is that they make people feel really certain about things that have nothing to do with reality.

For example, you might have this spiritual kinda person who meets this New Ager who's deep into QAnon-type conspiracy theories, and while they're chatting the first person sees that the clock says 11:11 and thinks that she must be on the right path. So she feels really, really sure of herself when she comes out of this conversation convinced that Donald Trump is saving children from satanic blood-drinking pedophiles.

The same kind of thing can happen with any kind of synchronicity, of course. (Or seeming synchronicity, at least. The frequency illusion is a hell of a thing.) Confirmation bias pulls people deeper and deeper into worldviews and beliefs completely unhinged from reality.

And like, I've experienced synchronicities myself, some of which seem way too wild to be coincidental, so I know how compelling these experiences can be. But at the same time, I know that these synchronicities had nothing to do with any sort of grand spiritual journey toward the truth, because they were basically always about whatever random shit I was fixating on at the time. This whole idea that synchronicities must be some grand cosmic sign is extremely dangerous.

[acti-veg]

It is just so funny to me to see popular posts making fun of climate change deniers, alongside similarly popular anti-vegan posts engaging in the kind of denialism that would make a flat-earther blush. But who needs a source when you have confirmation bias?

[tilbageidanmark]

A list of cognitive biases

[catofadifferentcolor]

Terrible Fic Idea #98: DSC, but make it Established Relationship

Here's the thing: Star Trek: The Next Generation was my very first fandom. If someone told me that I imprinted on Jean-Luc Picard as a child, I wouldn't be surprised... But despite my great and overwhelming love for all things Trek, I've had a monumentally hard time getting into Star Trek: Discovery. When giving it another shot, I stumbled across the works of Alethia and Elenothar and this bun was born.

Or: What if Michael Burnham and Christopher Pike were in a relationship prior to the events of Discovery?

aka the How Long Is Forever fic

Bear with me:

Everything broadly follows canon thru S2 of Discovery, with two exceptions:

1) c. 2245, shortly after Pike becomes XO of Enterprise, Michael accompanies Sarek on one of his diplomatic missions, for which Enterprise plays transport. Michael and Chris meet and become friendly acquaintances. Their relationship evolves from friendship to romance over the course of comm calls and shore leaves, and they decide to marry six months after Michael's posting to the Shenzhou, c. 2250; and

2) Rather than decide carte blanche which of his children would enter the Vulcan Expeditionary Group, Sarek discussed the matter with Michael, rightly assuming that her relationship with a member of Starfleet might influence her to join the other group when all the facts were laid out. This leads to Michael having a much better relationship with her foster parents (enough so that Sarek is somewhat bemused when Spock decides to follow his sister into Starfleet regardless).

Just Imagine It:

Michael and Chris are private people. They don't hide their personal lives, but they don't exactly go around sharing details either - especially given their respective positions and backgrounds. Therefore very few people realize either is married, let alone who their spouse is.

What follows is your basic 5 + 1 (or in this case, 10 + 2, with Chris and Michael each getting half) that hits any and all tropes that can be used in service of the theme. I have startlingly few specific details for these, but the highlights are:

Shortly after Chris becomes captain of the Enterprise, one or more crewmen overhear him turning down the alien princess of the week by mentioning he's already in a relationship. None of the crewmen have ever heard mention of of said relationship before and his service record at the time lists no spouse, so they assume it's a ruse to gracefully decline unwanted advances. Word quietly spreads around the ship about Captain Pike's "relationship". When Chris realizes why he's receiving fewer propositions from curious aliens and libidinous crewmen alike, he thanks the crew in such a way that they think he's playing along with the joke. (Number One does realize the misunderstanding, but finds it so amusing she never clarifies and several times goes out of her way to encourage it.)

A year into her tenure on the Shenzhou, one of the more daring crewmen ask Michael why she doesn't socialize with the crew, Michael makes a comment about how Vulcans are traditionally monogamous and how even if they were not, she has no desire to stray from her marriage. This, when filtered through ship gossip and a Xenoanthropology 101-level understanding of Vulcan culture, leads many to assume Michael is married to a Vulcan in the Vulcan fashion. Some, not knowing the specifics of her upbringing, even assume she's married to Spock.

By the time Spock joins the Enterprise, ship gossip has been chewing on our devastatingly handsome captain had to make up a girlfriend to get people to stop hitting on him for years; when a particularly persistent alien princess pushes the matter regardless, those crewmen who overhear Spock say, "The Captain is already bonded. Indeed, he has been married to my sister for several years now," assume him to be playing along. Spock's sister acquires Girlfriend in Canada status and Spock is assumed to have a much better sense of humor than first suspected. (Number One cackles when she learns of this and continues to manipulate the gossip so even parts of the Admiralty are amused that a highly-decorated tactical genius needs to fake a girlfriend to get out of uncomfortable social situations.)

Rumors abound after Chris takes temporary command of Discovery, because Chris and Michael are consummate professionals... who just happen to stare meaningfully at each other and have a lot of intimate discussions for people who are theoretically committed to different people. Some say affair. Some say both were lying all along about their relationship statuses. One or two are aware of Enterprise's whole Spock's sister is the captain's Canadian girlfriend thing, but never consider there might be some truth behind it.

Maybe a bodysnatcher episode where Chris realizes something is wrong with Michael because of behavioral changes a la "A Little Push" by Alethia?

Maybe Michael and Chris having to go undercover as married for an away mission and everyone being surprised by how well they pretend to be married?

Maybe shore leave on Risa? Away mission gone wrong where one is thought to be dead by the other? Vulcan marriage practices being misinterpreted by humans? Dealer's choice on the details, though there should be some level of crack treated seriously throughout.

The truth comes out after the end of DSC S2 - where instead of traveling to the future, Discovery stays in the present captained by Saru and Michael follows Chris back to the Enterprise. Perhaps it's as simple as Pike's yeoman completing the commander’s transfer paperwork, going to assign her quarters, and realizing she and Pike are already married... Or maybe it's another trope, where on one of their first missions together Michael and Chris encounter their Kid From The Future and when someone mentions how awkward the situation must be, Michael counters, "Why? The Captain and I have been married for over a decade already," and not understanding why everyone is surprised by this.

Bonuses include:

All the tropes. Seriously. Alternate timelines. Mirror Universe. Transporter incidents. Call-Backs. Call-Forwards. Energy beings. Time loops. Time travel. Bodysnatchers. If it can be done, do it;

Neither Chris nor Michael having made any real attempt to hide their relationship. They are discrete and in retrospect it should be painfully obvious, but never once is it actively hidden by either party. After the initial misunderstanding, their crews are guilty of confirmation bias. (And a meddling Number One);

One crew member on Discovery who think Captain Pike and Commander Burnham would be cute together, plotting to get them together, and being very quickly shot down by other crew members; and

Chris managing to subvert his canon doom by accepting it. Like all prophecies, the time crystal didn't give him the full story - which, in sidestepping actual canon, is him getting seriously injured but being healed by alien medicine that's only available because of the Federation's relationship with one of those alien worlds whose princess Chris gently sidestepped the advances of in the early days of his relationship with Michael.

And that's all I've got. It's very little to do with the actual canon plot and a whole lot of playing with common Trek tropes, but feel free to adjust as necessary. Just link back if you decide to do anything with it.

More MISC Ideas | More Terrible Fic Ideas

[seeking--the--essential]

[religion-is-a-mental-illness]

"If you do or do not believe in god and do or do not repost this something will or will not happen."

I couldn't believe it! It worked for me!

[unsolicited-opinions]

Nobody is immune to propaganda and flattery. Today's example is Nicholas Kristof.

Kristof has won two Pulitzer prizes for journalism and is a columnist for the New York Times. One could be forgiven for hoping that Kristof might be harder to sucker than the average illiberal left campus Hamasnik, but it turns out that speaking to his orientalist, white savior ego and confirming biases is so effective that he'll skip doing *any* basic journalism.

Here's Kristof on 1/31/25, using a Twitter post from Omar Hamad as an example to argue that it is wrong to suggest that Palestinians overwhelmingly support Hamas and the attacks of 10/7/23.

In his post, Hamad shows a copy of a book Kristof co-authored and gives it a glowing review.

Kristof clearly enjoyed the glowing praise and responded by arguing that Omar Hamad shows us how Palestinians are clearly sensitive and tolerant.

To be clear, I'm sure many Palestinians are sensitive and tolerant, but Omar Hamad isn't one of them and this is an ironic way to make the argument.

Here are other tweets from Omar Hamad:

"O God, take the Jews and wash the earth with them and make our land their graves"

"By God, mother, God's victory can only be achieved through blood."

The truth is that neither my family nor I were ever part of Hamas. We lived in Gaza like any other family that did not belong to Hamas. However, I deeply regret that. I regret not being part of October 7, and I regret not firing a rocket at our occupied lands. I regret not killing an Israeli soldier. This regret has been planted within every person in Gaza, even in those who were opposed to Hamas's ideology. You are nothing but bloodthirsty butchers. You could have gained the sympathy of the entire world, but you revealed your true nature, your vile, Nazi- like, bloodstained face. Do not think that just because you hold power now, you are right or eternal, immune to defeat. Let me remind you, in one era, no force was greater than the Mongols, but their time came, and they were defeated. In another period, no one was more powerful than the Nazis, yet they too were defeated. Now, it is you, and I tell you, you will be defeated. If not now, then in the years to come.

Kristof didn't even bother to look up who was heaping this praise on him. He saw the praise, he let his confirmation bias and ego fill in the blanks instead of trying...you know...investingating, reading, looking for supportable facts, questioning sources, examining biases...you know...journalism.

The only thing which makes this example of falling for flattering confirmation bias bait extraordinary is that it's a Pulitzer Prize winner doing it - this is exactly what's happening every minute among the west's far left and we can see their disdain for facts and reason all over social media. Their disregard for intellectual rigor and intellectual honesty is comparable to that of the MAGA dittoheads on the far right.

This the intellectual laziness, these are the unexamined set of biases which animate the anti-Israel campus protestors who wave the flags of Islamist movements like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. Movements who would happily murder their useful idiots at Columbia University and Harvard.

They are markedly more susceptible to propaganda which speaks to their white savior views of themselves...than this two-time winner of the Pulitzer Prize.

[dominaexmachina]

Saw funny post:

This is a textbook case of confirmation bias:

🤓 “I’ve already decided that AI is evil. Now help me find something to prove it, because otherwise it’s awkward.”

But hey — if all the articles say AI is useful, maybe it’s not the sources you need to change…

maybe it’s your opinion you should reconsider? 😏

But no. The plan stays the same: must confirm the belief at all costs. 😂

[unwelcome-ozian]

Confirmation Bias Tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information that confirms or strengthens one’s prior personal beliefs or hypotheses. It is a type of cognitive bias

[mrbopst]

[catofoldstones]

[sophieinwonderland]

Plural community uses a word that already exists to describe an experience → a fictional medium uses that word → said fictional medium becomes popular → all instances of the phrase are now because of said popular fictional medium → everyone who uses phrase is just a fan of popular thing and therefore a faker

This is about NPC/digital circus btw

You know, this actually demonstrates some fun aspects of confirmation bias in r/systemscringe beliefs.

I saw this with certain members of the hatesub also assuming every religious headmate people had was based on Hazbin Hotel after it was released. Despite the fact that religious headmates are very well-documented in academic literature.

It's not too surprising how, since one of the sub's core beliefs is that "fakers" always form alters from popular media, they would associate terminology in the plural community with popular media which then confirms their pre-existing beliefs. Even when there's no connection between the two.

Because yeah, NPC has been in the community forever. I first saw the term on r/tulpas before I ever made this blog.

I've personally used it since long before the Amazing Digital Circus ever aired. But to r/systemscringe, they just this as something I got from a popular show. 🤷‍♀️

[sweaterkittensahoy]

Last thought before bed:

If you are going "omg looking back it is so obvious DJ and Ty were dating!!" and your sources are the same public-facing sources anyone has (insta photos of two people who like each other because they were both on a show with famous amounts of cast-likability): you didn't know shit. You're just doing a cannon ball into the worst kind of confirmation bias.

You didn't know. And it's fucking weird you are trying to pretend like you knew. And it's fucking weird to act like there were any loud clues to point you in that direction.

"BUT GAYLE THE KISSING PHOTO--"

The one at someone's birthday with Ty in a sailor hat? That one? The one that looks like any number of fun, casual, goofy moments between two men even when one of them is an out gay man?

You didn't know. It's fucking weird and uncomfortable to act like you did. These are two actual people not characters from that mid-tier show we all watched. Knock it off.