#importance of contingency in estimating

[asestimationsconsultants]

How Accurate Is a Construction Cost Estimating Service?

Accuracy in construction cost estimating can mean the difference between a well-managed project and one plagued by budget overruns. For developers, contractors, and homeowners, relying on a professional construction cost estimating service is a key step toward financial predictability. But how accurate are these estimates, and what factors influence their precision?

Understanding the Nature of Estimates

First, it’s important to clarify that estimates are not final costs—they are projections based on available data, current pricing, and anticipated conditions. A professional construction cost estimating service provides a highly detailed breakdown using industry-standard methods, digital tools, and historical data. While no estimate is 100% precise, the best services often fall within 5% to 10% of the final project cost.

Factors That Affect Accuracy

The accuracy of an estimate depends on several factors:

Design Completeness: If architectural and engineering plans are incomplete, the estimator must make assumptions, increasing the margin of error.

Site Information: Geotechnical data, site access, and environmental issues influence costs. Limited site details can reduce estimate accuracy.

Scope Clarity: Vague or changing scopes create uncertainty. Clear specifications lead to better estimates.

Market Conditions: Material prices and labor rates fluctuate. Estimators use real-time databases and supplier quotes to stay current, but unexpected inflation or shortages can still affect actual costs.

Experience and Tools: Seasoned estimators using advanced estimating software are more likely to deliver accurate results, as they can account for nuances and project-specific complexities.

Types of Estimates and Their Accuracy Levels

There are different classes of estimates used at various stages of a project:

Preliminary Estimate (Conceptual Stage): Accuracy range of ±20% to 30%

Budget Estimate (Schematic Design Stage): Accuracy range of ±15% to 20%

Detailed Estimate (Final Design Stage): Accuracy range of ±5% to 10%

The closer a project is to construction-ready, the more accurate the estimate becomes. A construction cost estimating service will always indicate the level of confidence and contingencies included in their projections.

Role of Contingencies

Accurate estimates often include a contingency—a percentage added to the base estimate to account for unknown risks or changes. A good estimator uses historical data and risk analysis to set the appropriate contingency level, improving the practical accuracy of the final number.

Ongoing Adjustments for Accuracy

Professional estimating services also offer estimate updates as the design evolves. These revisions improve precision and help clients maintain control over costs as more information becomes available.

Conclusion

While no estimate can predict every variable, a construction cost estimating service provides a highly accurate foundation for budgeting and decision-making. With detailed data, risk management, and experience, estimators offer realistic financial projections that clients can trust to guide their projects from concept to completion.

[probablyasocialecologist]

Today, we know from the research of Jason Hickel and his colleagues that in 2021 the Global North was able to extract from the Global South 826 billion hours in net appropriated labor. This represents $18.4 trillion measured in Northern wages. Behind this lies the fact that workers in the Global South receive 87–95 percent lower wages for equivalent work at the same skill levels. The same study concluded that the wage gap between the Global North and the Global South was increasing, with wages in the North rising eleven times more than wages in the South between 1995 and 2021. This research into the contemporary global labor arbitrage is coupled with recent historical work by Utsa Patnaik and Prabhat Patnaik that has now documented the astronomical drain of wealth during the period of British colonialism in India. The estimated value of this drain over the period of 1765–1900, cumulated up to 1947 (in 1947 prices) at 5 percent interest, was $1.925 trillion; cumulated up to 2020, it amounts to $64.82 trillion. It should be emphasized that the Global North’s contemporary drain of economic surplus from the Global South, via the unequal exchange of labor embodied in exports from the latter, is in addition to the normal net flow of capital from developing to developed countries recorded in national accounts. This includes the balance on merchandise trade (import and exports), net payments to foreign investors and banks, payments for freight and insurance, and a wide array of other payments made to foreign capital such as for royalties and patents. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the net financial resource transfers from developing countries to developed countries in 2017 alone amounted to $496 billion. In neoclassical economics, this is known as the paradox of the reverse flow of capital, or of capital flowing uphill, which it ineffectively tries to explain away by various contingent factors, rather than acknowledging the reality of economic imperialism. With respect to the geopolitical dimension of imperialism, the focus this century has been on the continuing decline of U.S. hegemony. Analysis has concentrated on the attempts of Washington, since 1991, backed by London, Berlin, Paris, and Tokyo, to reverse this. The goal is to establish the triad of the United States, Europe, and Japan—with Washington preeminent—as the unipolar global power through a more “naked imperialism.” This counterrevolutionary dynamic eventually led to the present New Cold War. Yet, despite all of the developments in imperialism theory over the last century, it is not the theory of imperialism so much as the actual intensification of the Global North’s exploitation of the Global South, coupled with the resistance of the latter, that has stood out. As Sweezy argued in Modern Capitalism and Other Essays in 1972, the sharp point of proletarian resistance decisively shifted in the twentieth century from the Global North to the Global South. Nearly all revolutions since 1917 have taken place in the periphery of the world capitalist system and have been revolutions against imperialism. The vast majority of these revolutions have occurred under the auspices of Marxism. All have been subjected to counterrevolutionary actions by the great imperial powers. The United States alone has intervened militarily abroad hundreds of times since the Second World War, primarily in the Global South, resulting in the deaths of millions. In the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries, the primary contradictions of capitalism have been those of imperialism and class.

3 November 2024

[max1461]

There are lots of people in the West to whom Western chauvinism is appealing, for a variety of reasons. And it is, in particular, I think, a more seductive ideology than racism sensu stricto for the kind of educated, upper middle class people who end up playing important decision-making roles in society. Not that plenty of them aren't racist sensu stricto as well. I'm just saying, I think one of these things has more persuasive power. These are people on whom "you can't say that, it's racist" simply does not work in a substantive way. They might outwardly display deference, but inwardly you haven't really changed their mind. They still feel that The West Is The Best, Screw (Or, Paternalistically Enlighten) All The Rest. And you should want to change their mind, because like it or not, per above, they are the stratum of society that is going to end up in decision-making roles and if they all think The West Is The Best they are going to make decisions based on The West Is The Best.

Uh, right, ok. There's a lot of defeatism on the left about the general project of convincing people of things; supposedly people's views are wholly predetermined by their material interests and nobody can ever be convinced of anything. Westerners will always think The West Is The Best because it benefits them to do so.

Well, needless to say I think this is wrong. People can indeed be convinced of things, especially on the margins; cf. gay rights as an example of a political battle that has been very successfully fought in the court of public opinion. Obviously not every political battle is perfectly analogous to this, you're not gonna be able to convince Washington people to dismantle American empire or something through words, but on the margin public opinion does matter. And, ok: real public opinion matters. Not just what people say in polite company, what they really feel in their heart of hearts. In my estimation, a lot more people are LGBT allies now, really, in their heart of hearts, than was the case in 1990 or 1960. That matters! But the deal is, I think, that a huge contingent of people are either nominally or genuinely anti-racist sensu stricto, but in their heart of hearts are still basically Western chauvinists. And that effects policy and culture, and I think you can't fix it by saying "that's racist, you can't say it". It will not work. I think rational argument is generally not sufficient to convince people of things, but it is often necessary, and in combination with the right rhetoric and social circumstances, rational argument does in fact often change people's minds (in my experience).

So, the thing is, I think there are a whole lot of good arguments against Western chauvinism, I think Western chauvinist attitudes are in fact not justified. I think we do not have to dance around this and play word games, because our opponents are actually wrong and we can tell them why they are wrong. Not everyone has to be in this business, but I am in this business, on my blog. I think it's important that arguments, not just opposition but arguments on this point actually be out there. Which is the origin of my much maligned habit of, basically, engaging with racists. I mean not that white nationalist anon; engaging with him is purely an unhealthy and probably-harmful-to-the-psychae-of-my-readers thing so I've tried to stop doing that. But, no, the exact kind of people I'm talking about here. The kind of people who become engineers and technocrats, and do not think of themselves as racist but hold these Western chauvinist views implicitly. I think it is important that they have at least seen someone, somewhere, arguing on their terms, in their language (this is the deal about rhetoric, remember) that maybe the West is not so uniquely enlightened as they suppose.

I think, based on my intuitive barometer for The Discourse, that my constant posting on this and related points has substantively changed the tone of the discussion around these issues on this part of tumblr, which, yeah, is I think something. It's really a thing. Uh. I'm not going to stop doing this because it demonstrably works, I think. I think I'm just empirically seeing the whole "don't even engage" philosophy be incorrect. You don't have to engage, but it is quite useful for someone to be engaging.

The people I'm talking about, well, they're people who often take a lot of pride in their intelligence, their ability to know stuff and be correct, etc. etc. And I have found that it actually does work to be like "look, I think you are wrong on points X, Y, and Z, I think you are factually wrong, and here is an explanation of how". When you start telling these people that they are wrong, they listen! Being right matters to them, like, personally and culturally, and so a very basic grasp of communication and rhetoric says this is the issue on which you should be engaging. Uh, that makes it sound like I think caring about being factually correct is a bad thing. No, I care about it too! It's a good thing to care about!

Right, I don't know where I'm going with this.

[mesetacadre]

The Yugoslav volunteers in the International Brigades

Translated from this article, my own comments in [italicized brackets]

The total number of Yugoslavs in Spain differs according to researchers. The French historian, Hervé Lemesle, states that the total exceeds 1900, with the main contingent being Croatian, followed by Slovenes and Serbs. A majority were workers from many sectors and peasants. There were also doctors, engineers, teachers, journalists, and students. Most traveled from Yugoslavia, although there were groups of exileds or migrants from many European countries, as well as the US, Canada or Argentina.

The number of deaths (including MIA) in Spain is close to 800, a very high percentage (40%), although other studies estimate 32%. At any rate, it’s higher than the average losses for the International Brigades (27%). The most notorious victim was Blagoje Parović [Šmit, nom de guerre], part of the Communist Party of Yugoslavia’s Central Committee and political commissar of the XIII International Brigade, who died the first day in the Battle of Brunete. His remains were buried in the Fuencarral cemetery.

There were 16 Yugoslav women in the Health Services. The oldest was 43, while the youngest were only 22 years old. Most of the female volunteers arrived in Spain in 1937, from the Kingdom of Yugoslavia or countries such as Algeria, Belgium, Czechoslovakia, France, and Uruguay. Some of those women had been active agents of the worker movement or even members of the CPY before leaving for Spain. Those who lacked medical training attended a preparation course beforehand. They worked in the hospitals of Murcia, Albacete, Benicasim, Denia, Madrigeras, Vic, and other cities. Avgust Lesnik writes: “There were 16 women: doctors Adela Bohunicki, Nada Dimitrijević-Nešković, and Dobrila Mezić-Šiljak, [as well as the nurses] Ana-Marija Basch (Baš), Olga Dragić-Belović (Milić Milica), Elizabeta-Liza Gavrić, Marija-Peči Glavaš, Marija Habulin, Lea Kraus, Tereza Kučera, Lujza Pihler (Demić Borka), Ottilia Reschitz-Zanoni, Ana Seles-Brozović, Kornelija Sende-Popović, Eugenia Simonetti, and Marija Šneeman”.

Borka Demic (right) in the Pasionaria Hospital of Murcia (colored by Tina Paterson)

If I were to be born again, I’d continue fighting for the ideals of my youth. Then, nothing was difficult and I don’t regret anything (Borka Demic)

The Yugoslav volunteers in the various units and arms

After the formation of the International Brigades, the Yugoslav volunteers were distributed throughout different units. For instance, the Edgar André battalion had 36, the Thälmann had 93, Garibaldi had 40, and Chapaiev had 78. The main body of Yugoslavs, however, were first integrated into the Balkan company of the Dombrowski battalion (120), and immediately after, into the Dimitrov battalion. By early 1938 a good portion of the Yugoslavs were integrated into two of the 129th Brigade’s battalions: Dimitrov (191) and Djaković (150). They were also a part of the 45th International Division (108)

There was Yugoslav presence in various arms and services: 4 in aviation; 12 in transport units, 1 in the navy, 33 in the International Brigades’ health service, and 26 in the guerrilla groups (one of the most experienced of which was Ljubomir Ilič). More important than this was their presence (131 members) in the artillery arm, of which there were 21 in the heavy artillery Slav Group, 22 in the 2nd heavy artillery Škoda Group’s Liebknecht Battery, 18 in the 3rd heavy artillery Group, 38 in the 4th anti-tank Group’s Stjepan Radić battery, 6 in the 35 Division’s Ana Pauker artillery Group, 5 in the 45 Division’s Rosa Luxembourg artillery Group, and 21 in the Gottwald battery. Furthermore, 65 Yugoslavs fought in the Spanish units of the Republican Army. (Avgust Lesnik)

They fought in almost every front in Spain, from the defense of Madrid to the very last battles of the retreat into France (Januray-February 1939) being an example of fearlessness and courage, because of which a good part of them received war medals from the Spanish Republican Government.

The Dimitrov battalion until December 1937

As has been explained in another article, the Dimitrov battalion was formed in January 1937 in the instructional base in Mahora. They entered battle the 12th of February in the Jarama battle, which finished the 27th of that same month. Then, until mid June, it stayed covering that from with the other battalions of the XV International Brigade.

After a two week rest in Ambite (Tajuña valley), the XV Brigade travelled to Madrid’s north to take part of the first great republican offensive in Brunete. Combat started during the night of the 5 to the 6th of July. The XV International Brigade was a part of, along the XIII and 16 BM, the XV Division under general Gal’s command [János Gálicz, a Soviet-Hungarian officer who also led the Lincoln Battalion]. The mission was to take the heights of Romanillos (XIII IB) and Mosquito (XV IB). It wasn’t possible because operations were slow and the brigades could not take the important francoist positions. The Dimitrov went as far as taking the Miraval Olive Grove, but in the 18th of July, when the first francoist counter-offensive commences, they lost it. Since that point, the republican positions began to retreat until the 22nd, when they were forced to cross back through the Guadarrama river. The XV IB was relieved the 26th of July and went back to where they began the offensive.

In late July, the Dimitrov returned to Ambite (Tajuña valley) and was able to reorganize: the battalion, that had arrived with 143 combatants, reached 563. In this way, in the 24th of August, it threw itself with renewed force against the Aragonian village of Quinto, which fell 26th. During the taking of the village and the Purburell hill, which defended them to the east, the Dimitrov battalion’s courage stood out. The same was true in the fierce week-long combat to subdue Belchite.

After this battle, the Dimitrov was detached from the XV Brigade and, during the few following months, was a part of, along with the Djuro Djakovic battalion, the 45th International Division’s Reserve Group. It was a period that they dedicated to military education and to the surveillance of the Huesca Front from the second line. In January 1938 they received the order to transfer to the Southern Front. Close to Almadén, in Chillón, the last International Brigade was formed, the 129th; composed of these two battalions plus the newly created Masaryk battalion.

The Djuro Djakovic Battalion

Composed primarily of Yugoslav volunteers, plus a few Czechoslovaks and Bulgarians, adopted their name in memory of that Croat revolutionary and member of the CPY, tortured and executed in 1929 by order of the king and dictator Alexander the First.

It was formed in April 1937 from the Balkan Company of the Dombrowski battalion. This Company had participated, with the Dombrowski, in the Defense of Madrid and in the battles of Boadilla, Jarama, and Guadalajara. Its excellent conduct pushed general Lukács [Béla Frankl, or Máté Zalka, nom de guerre Pál Lukács, a Hungarian veteran of the Russian Civil War, where he fought alongside the Bolsheviks, he died 2 months later in Huesca], leader of the XII IB, to convert the Company into the core from which the new Djure Djakovic battalion would arise. Its first combat happened in April 1937 in Santa Quiteria, in the Aragon Front, along the Rakosi battalion and the Karl Marx Division.

It returned to Carabaña (Madrid) to reorganize under the command of Bulgarian captain Jristov, and marched to Roquetes in June (close to Tortosa) to join the 150th IB (Dombrowski Brigade), formed in May from the Dombrowski, Rakosi, and André Marty battalions. This brigade plus the XII IB formed the 45th division, under the command of General Kléber [Manfred Stern, nom de guerre Emilio Kléber, a Ukranian Jew member of Soviet military intelligence], was sent to Madrid in early July to take part in the Brunete offensive as a reserve unit to the XVIII Army Corps.

The Djakovic battalion did not have any special role in Brunete, but it did in the following offensive towards Zaragoza (24th of August - 7th of September), as was expressed in Wladimir Stopczyk’s final report as Commissar of the XIII IB: “It has been told to me how, when they had been encircled and cut off there was no panic whatsoever, nor any case of disobeying an order. They conducted themselves with an equal parts spirit of sacrifice and discipline, as they continue to do so, as well as the soldiers of our Brigade’s other battalions. I have to specially remark the Djakovic battalion’s attitude who, despite the heavy losses suffered in the last scuttles, with intense fire from fascist artillery and aviation, maintained a dignified and heroic attitude”.

Both in this instance as in the October attack against Fuentes de Ebro, this battalion suffered many losses. Afterwards, the Dimitrov and Djakovic battalions were designated as the 45th Division’s Reserve Group. This division, from October 1937 to January 1938, remained in the Litera region as reinforcement of the first line at the Huesca front.

The 129th International Brigade

In February 1938, these two battalions, with the predominantly Czechoslovak Masaryk battalion, formed the 129th IB, in Chillón, close to Almadén. It was led by the Polish Wacław Komar [born Mendel Kossoj, known in Spain as Wacek Komar, a Jewish survivor of the Holocaust and member of the Polish Communist Party until his retirement in 1967]. In addition to these battalions, the 129th IB had at its disposal an anti-tank battery made up of Yugoslavs, a mortar company and a cavalry squadron. In late March 1938. the 129th IB was transferred to the area around Morella, where it suffered heavy losses. The fascist troops led by general Aranda and the Italian Divisions advanced with numerous human and material resources, and the three battalions suffered severe losses. To this, the errors of the Republican command must be added, despite which the volunteers fought with high valor. Finally, in the 4th of April, the 129th evacuated the fort of Morella and retreated to rebuild its forces in Benassal, northeast of Castellón.

Yugoslav volunteers of the Djakovic battalion during the strategic retreat in Teruel

Once rebuilt and rearmed (the brigade once surpassed 2000 members), it initiated a series of defensive combats in the 17th of April in the province of Teruel in the context of the battle of the Levant. The scarcely-known feat began in Ejulve, in the province of Teruel’s north. For three months, these volunteers had the leading role in a strategic retreat of 225km [139.8 miles], through the mountains of Teruel, which brought them up to the Javalambre front, passing through Mora de Rubielos. In this last front, the 129th IB kept the defense and carried out a few attacks, highlighting the 18th of September attack to take the road from Teruel to Sagunto, the last swan song of a brigade that covered itself in glory during its short 7 month lifespan.

The Yugoslav volunteers at the end of the war in Spain

The international volunteers were disbanded in the 24th of September. In the center-south area it was done 2 weeks after, in early October. Those who remained in the Catalan region were concentrated in Campdevanol, north of Ripoll. A good part of the Yugoslavs, presents in the 129th IB and the artillery units, were concentrated in the Admiral’s headquarters in Valencia. In December, they were transported to Almusafes until they were able to travel to Barcelona by boat the 20th of January.

Days later, before Barcelona’s fall and the coming republican collapse, most of the Yugoslavs offered themselves as volunteers to help in the task of preventing the fascist advance, which they did from the 26th of January until February 6th. This is how Svetsilav Dorevic told it: “The end of our fight has come, the internationals’ last compromise was to help the Spanish fellows to contain the enemy at least a little bit, so the evacuation that had to be done could be done without panic and in order, so it did not fall prey to the enemy, as well as to prevent the capture of people at risk of death”.

After, came the concentration camps in Argeles sur Mer, Saint Cyprien, Collioure, Gurs, and others. Many managed to escape, others were transferred to the French work camps, others to the French resistance, as well as the resistance in other European countries. The metallurgical worker Koturović (“Cot”), of Belgrade, was a legendary hero of the French Resistance Movement, in which Ljubomir Ilič, Vlajko Begović, and Lazar Latinović also played a marked role.

Almost 350 were able to return to Yugoslavia, of which 250 joined the partisan fight beared by Tito [Another international volunteer] and the CPY. Around 150 perished in the national liberation war from 1942 to 1945. Many of those organized insurrections, led guerrilla detachments, or were unit chiefs. Because of their merits in the fight against the fascist invaders, the Popular Hero of Yugoslavia medal was awarded to more than 50 ex-combatants of the International Brigades, amongst which were Franc Rozman, Koča Popović, Kosta Nadj, Vladimir Popović, Peko Dapčević, Iván Rukavina, Danilo Lekić, Dušan Kveder, Veljko Kovačević, Srećko Manola, Vlado Cetković, Vojo Todorović, Otmar Kreačić, and Vicko Antić. All the rest were awarded with high medals.

[alicepao13]

I will explain this again because it's important that it is understood from a financial point of view. No sentiment. Just pure logic.

Hudson and Rex is a product. Its sole purpose is to make certain companies money. CityTV and the productions participating are these companies.

People in the production of Hudson and Rex work in order to achieve this goal.

There are two things that the product must NOT do: take a financial loss, and give the companies behind it a bad name.

Last season, with Diesel's passing and John Reardon's forced absence, things had to change. Scripts had to be re-written, other dogs had to be trained more intensively to take over Diesel's place (and I imagine with more feasible acts as they weren't that experienced), different guest stars had to be hired than originally intended, filming dates probably too. Plus the two extra episodes which never aired. All this resulted in financial loss and that's probably why the last two episodes, 9 and 10, were pulled from S7. If you've already blown your budget, then you can't produce more episodes.

Now, I doubt any of what followed was a sentimental reaction. In fact, it was a very practical (but still moronic and shortsighted) one. Yes, it doesn't make sense to get rid of your lead. It only makes sense in the world of showbiz when you can't take the risk that he may be absent again.

They took a loss and couldn't trust that he would get sick again so they took what they thought was the most risk-averse option. That could have been combined with things like insurance companies not willing to insure him for the same reason (which can be surpassed from what I have been told, especially if the production is willing to meet the insurance company half-way. This is a contingency, and the more they see John Reardon being well, the less risk they think they will take).

Anyway, we need to make them understand that their decision is not risk-averse. That's what they thought because no one was making a fuss about it and they thought they have a quiet fandom in their hands that just goes googoo gaga over a dog. We need to make them realize that this is actually the option that will end the show because we won't watch. And not only will we not watch but we'll also make sure people know about this and turn people who are considered the general audience against them. Yes, their precious general audience. Aside from the fact that they are ruining the show, which is not a small thing to let aside in the first place, do you know how many cancer survivors are among families? How many families have lost people to cancer? What would these viewers do when presented with the truth, I wonder? Hudson and Rex is based purely on heart, I won't stop saying that. It's a feel-good show.

So if they can't handle making the show anymore, if they can't make profit off of it, they should end it but they should end it with Charlie. If they just aren't willing to take a smaller profit than what they'd originally anticipated and they'd estimated that their decision carried less risk, we should make them see that they've estimated wrong because they'd estimated we wouldn't react. We need to react strong and we need to react passionately.

Right now, we can do a limited amount of things but there are still being done. When they announce the season and announce the change, that's when we hit full force. Call them out on: cowardice, lack of artistic integrity, lack of actual integrity, incompetence, character assassination (the non-literal one that will happen to the remaining characters), seedy practices, disloyalty on a show that is about loyalty, and keeping their audience in the dark because it's now clear (since we got more pieces to the puzzle) that this decision had been taken a while ago. Perhaps not when the scripts were written or maybe not even when they were filmed but a while. So they should have at least owned it and let their audience know, and pick up feedback from that, which they failed to do because they're afraid.

We make sure people know who's at fault. Shaftesbury and CityTV. CityTV might have minimal involvement but better networks have chosen to cancel their shows after the people in charge there have chosen to blow them up. They are not innocent and they could have pushed the issue, they're the ones who will put that whatever-product on their schedule.

We hit up Beta Films and let them know that as an international fandom, we will make sure this will be known to the people who watch in other countries. They are the distributing company and they care about this. They are also one of the production companies, so they have a certain pull (not sure how much).

I don't really want to do this but we should also send e-mails to Pope Productions and tell them that this should not be the legacy of the show that Paul Pope would want. From anything that I read after his passing, he was someone always invested in the shows he produced and cared about the people and the stories his company made.

Social media activity stays as discussed. Every post that Hudson and Rex accounts make should be met with comments exposing them, until there's not one "aw look at Rex" comment. Smother that noise, don't harass the people and don't reply to these comments, you'll only push them upwards, but make sure it gets lost in our comments. There are either people who don't understand, are not willing to understand, or don't care (at this point I think it's very few in that category). We won't target them for it, we will just do our own thing.

For anything else, there is my sideblog to get the e-mails and other information.

Remember, we do this for John Reardon whom they treated poorly and for the show Hudson and Rex as we know and love.

[crossxworlds]

The Pocket Rift - Episode 50

A CrossXworlds story

© 2025 - Kevin W. Burke

__________

Aiani sat silently, sober for a minute. She thought of Davin.

“What about here in Gloomsburg? What're the biggest threats?”

“Basically everything I already described. Luckily there's no active atomic generators within range of a Pulse, so we won't have radiation to worry about. And the further away from the Pocket, the less likely things will be damaged, but there's no telling how much charge a Pocket could build up before it discharges. It could be 30 miles, or as much as 100 to 500 miles, if the charge gets high enough. Even further if the Pulse resonates out along leylines.”

Aiani sat down. “Wow.”

Flint nudged Spark. “Don't forget about the reservoirs.”

She looked at Flint, and then Spark. “What reservoirs?”

Spark sighed. “Upstream from Gloomsburg, up the Palomara River, there's a gorge, a canyon where the river cuts through for hundreds of miles until it reaches us here in the Gloomsburg valley and spreads out to join the ocean in the bay. There's a series of dams up the river, most of them generating electric power, and three of them are within range of what I estimate a Pulse radius would probably reach.”

“But dams are made of stone and cement, so…?”

“Not the parts that generate electricity. And those are where the water comes through.”

Aiani stood up, her eyes widening. “How much water are we talking about, Spark?”

“It depends on whether they just lose control of the spillways, or if a generator arcs and damages the structural integrity.”

“If it's the first one?”

“Bad, but not horrible. A gradual buildup of between three to five or six feet of mud and water over a day or two, but it could flow for weeks.

Aiani swallowed. “And the second one?”

Spark looked down, biting nervously on his knuckles for a moment. 

“Spark?”

“If all three dams go, we could be in the path of a 30 foot wall of water with very little warning. If only one or two collapsed, then maybe a 15 or 20 foot wall. And maybe a few hours' warning, maybe not. But even with warning, most of the transportation would be unusable at that point. We might be able to retreat through the Pocket, if it still works like normal after that.”

“But all the people here?”

Spark just shook his head.

Aiani bit her lower lip, turning her head away. There was a long silence in the room.

Finally she said, “The worst part is that we can't even warn anyone. And what would we even say? Best case scenario, you're about to get invaded. Worst case, everything about your life is going to change, if you manage to survive.”

Flint slammed a hand on his desk. “We'll do whatever we can to prepare! We're not helpless. The Council can't prevent us from being prepared for contingencies.

“Spark, get those metal cages ready. Stockpile extra power crystals and get them charged. If we save our devices, we can use them to coordinate evacuations and rescues if needed.

“I'll stockpile general provisions, rescue gear, and supplies. And we'll need a battle plan to navigate both Council and Continental Guard forces while it's all going down. They'll be at each other's throats, but there's no guarantee that either will respect non-combatants. 

“Aiani, you– “ 

Flint paused, seeing Aiani struggling to keep herself composed.

He took a breath, thinking quickly. “You will be a big help to both of us. As soon as you've taken care of something important.”

Aiani stood motionless, her eyes cast down, lost somewhere neither in or out of focus. She shook her head slowly. 

“No… No, I can't. How can I go to Davin with this?”

She fumbled her way into a chair, dazed. “I'm supposed to go to lunch with him today. How can I even face him, knowing what we're about to do to his home?”

“These just are my theories, Aiani,” Spark offered. “They're not a sure thing.”

“Even without your Pocket theories,” she said, “the attack by Council Guards is a sure thing. He could be one of the casualties –”

Aiani stopped, eyes widened. 

“Flint! What about the Illian casualties in Centrecity?”

His eyebrows furrowed. “What do you mean?”

“If there was an attack, there must be casualties, right? Were they real casualties, or fake?”

“I– I didn't think of that.”

“We need to know, Flint.”

Spark and Flint nodded solemnly.

“I'll find out what I can,” Flint said.

“I hate to be selfish, Flint… But it’s not just about proving whether Gallwraith is a traitor. It’s knowing what he’s capable of. I know he's spiteful to me, the Council vote made that clear. I can live with Gallwraith being my enemy if it comes to that. 

“But he openly despised Davin from the beginning, with no provocation– for being in the wrong place at the wrong time, and for standing up to him. He might actually be having us watched. If it turns out Gallwraith is capable of attacking his own for political advantage, he wouldn’t hesitate to rub out a grudge. Especially with Davin conveniently right here at a Pocket where the Surge plan will be launched.“

“We’ll do our best to protect him if it comes to that,” Flint said. 

Aiani shook her head. “I appreciate it, Flint, but that’s not going to be enough. After seeing Davin respond to threats at Gloomspire, I doubt he'd remain a non-combatant. Are you willing to go against the Council guards for him?”

Flint grunted. “I see what you mean. There are no winners there, no easy answers.”

Aiani stood in determination. “Davin's got to leave Gloomsburg. It's the only option.”

“How’re you going to get him to do that?” asked Spark.

“I don't know, but I've got to!”

__________

< Last Episode | Episode Index | Next Episode >

[wolves-against-the-world]

Lycanthropy and the Body in Medieval Europe

Sourced from: Riddarvold, Stian (2023): Medieval perceptions of the Other in an extranormal community: The Case of Cornelius Vogelsang. Journal of Lycanthropic History, 2(3).

The perception of Monstrosity and Otherness in Medieval Europe has been analyzed in literature from the Icelandic sagas (Merkelbach, 2014) to Beowolf (Fahey, 2019; Cavell, 2014). [...] The Army of the Night (Exercitus noctis) is not documented well, many documents being destroyed upon its dissolution in the 1300s. Despite this, there has been a recent uptick in research about this unique military and social structure. Exclusively consisting of lycanthropes, it was still largely governed by medieval perceptions of monstrousness contingent with human society. This study will examine the norms surrounding monstrosity and the body in a lycanthropic context and their enforcement through the documented court case against Cornelius Vogelsang. Additionally, interviews were conducted with three werewolves who witnessed the trial, which will be referred to as P, Z, and M.

The Army of the Night was a military unit founded and led by Emicho VI., also known as Emicho the Crusader (ca. 1050-2020), to aid the crusades. The Army of the Night is only scarcely documented in official church records, though Emicho appears frequently in the Gesta Francorum and Historia Francorum. He is described as a capable, if ruthless, military leader building a strike force apart from the main, i.e. human, crusaders. While the lycanthropic nature of that force is not named directly, Gesta Francorum indicates a level of disconnect between the fighting units, describing the Army of the Night as simply "strange" (prodigiosus). After the failure of the first crusade, there is a large hole in the documentation, with Emicho and his troops only appearing in fragments. For a more general overview see Vanderbilt, 1989.

Monstrosity and Monstrousness in the Army of the Night

In the Middle Ages, monstrousness was a metaphor as well as a real state inherently linked to the soul. Monstrousness as a whole was heavily confounded with race, disability, and marginalization in literature and was heavily linked to the body. It was assumed that wickedness or sin would show on the body, the damnation of the soul made flesh here and in the afterlife. Unlike in many Christian faiths today, the soul was not seen as separate from the body. The state of the soul was reflected on the body and vice versa. Another important component was the mind: Reasoning ability was assumed to be inherently human, while the monstrous only followed instincts. The damned were thus made monstrous by the rejection of their very existence as a thinking being.

In the period of the Army's assembly and operations, monstrousness was not seen as inherently damning, as in, it was reversible. Repentance could still save the soul.

As eldritch lycanthropes change on a molecular level, they were permanently made monstrous, and were thus damned by merely existing. However, the visible signs of lycanthropy progress with age, giving rise to the idea that there was a timeframe in which one could still reverse the process. (see document B26-3682)

[Fragment of latin text describing a transformation and the idea that there is a way to "save" a werewolf]

The timeframes vary between 30-100 years, which correlates with the lifespans of werewolves in the Army of the Night as estimated by my interview partners (transcripts in Appendix A-C).

Werewolf P was a high-ranking officer in the Army and worked closely with Emicho VI. In regard to the Army's concept of salvation, he stated:

"If they [the chosen recruits] survived the turning, they were brought into the camp. They were told it was a punishment for their sins - that it came directly from God instead of, hm, that they were just unlucky I suppose. [...] It was a sin to be a werewolf, and you became a werewolf by sinning, so unless you were saved before the beast took over completely, you would be damned forever. Of course people figured out that it was Emicho and his officers who were turning people, but the fear kept them in line. Turning someone without permission and hiding it was also punishable by death. Not that most lived very long. They thought dying for the cause could save them."

This idea was reinforced by a lycanthropic trait that has not been studied outside of folklore until the modern day. When dying, the body will take the shape that is most aligned with the phase of the moon. Calculating the moonphase for recorded battles shows that most were fought during half or new moon. A dying wolf would thus turn back to humanoid form and seemingly confirm that they had been saved. This of course was only true for wolves young enough to not show outward signs that a medieval person could pick up on. Once again, this reinforced the time pressure the recruits faced.

Burial, too, was contingent on their body's and thus soul's state.

[...]

The case of Cornelius Vogelsang

To show how monstrousness informed social relationships even within an extranormal community, I will now examine the court case against Cornelius Vogelsang, a member of the Army of the Night that was executed on the fifth of March 1218 on account of sodomy and heresy. What makes this case interesting is that it is the only one still preserved in some detail.

The person in question first appears as either Hussein ibn al-Rahmud or Hassan ibn al-Rahmad in the list of new recruits on the retreat after the disastrous loss at Hattin (1187). He was recorded to be 20 years old, which is not out of place in the Army of the Night. (See document A34-3442)

A supplementary interview with the werewolf Z confirmed that Vogelsang had likely grow up Muslim, but "he didn't like to speak of it". (Appendix B) The name Cornelius Vogelsang appears first in the Army's 1188 census alongside the older name. He seemed to have christianized his name in order to fit in with the Europeans. The appendix "Vogelsang" was apparently given in reference to his singing prowess. In between his recruitment and sentencing there is no surviving documentation of his existence or actions.

The trial commenced in early February 1218. The town cannot be identified conclusively due to damage to the parchment, but the record was found in the abbey of St. John in Alzey. While this abbey was only founded in 1290, it still points towards the trial taking place in the region.

Vogelsang was indicted on charges of heresy and sodomy. He was accused of preaching heresies to young recruits, such as lycanthropy not being a reversible curse, but a natural state of being. In a second charge he was also accused of sodomy with an unknown man that could not be identified in the course of the trial. Document A44-3448 describes the other person involved as "indictus" (unnamed), which implies that the identity was known, but the person was not to be charged.

[Scan and transcript of the page detaiing the court proceedings.]

Sodomy in this period was defined as any sexual act not intended for procreation. In the Army of the Night, this rule extended to all sexual activity, as siring children while monstrous was perceived as a major threat both theologically and realistically. This did not mean the werewolves did not seek out women, but by the decree of 1123, any offspring was to be killed as soon as possible. [...] The primary affront of homosexual acts was not its usually recreational nature, but the "perversion of natural law" of one person taking on the role of the opposite sex. (Hart, 1990) [...]

Vogelsang was described as a "large, blue man" with "shoulders like oxen and hands like shovels". Blue in this context refers to all darker colors and was often used in texts to also denote wickedness, possibly with a racialized undertone (Sigurdsdottír, 2018). The description of his strength also marks him as threatening. In the following paragraph, he is described as wearing his hair in the style of a woman, and his "beard [does] not hide his weakness". This description makes sense when connected with the accusations of an unknown witness, who claims to have found Vogelsang "subdued and taking the part of the woman", i.e. being the receiving partner.

Vogelsang was sentenced to death by burning, and his eyes were gouged out as to forbid him from seeing God's splendor. This sentence is notably brutal, as most other documented death sentences were either executed through beheading or a silver dagger to the heart. It is not too far-fetched to assume the sentence was meant to be a deterrent. The destruction of the body was a highly symbolic act. It proclaimed Vogelsang to be beyond salvation, thus he was considered to have lost his soul and the privilege of burial.

Assuming all accusations are true, Cornelius Vogelsang knew that the soldiers were being lied to, and tried to disprove or at least challenge the reigning narrative. With said narrative as his primary tool, Emicho had good reason to fear an erosion of his power.

Vogelsang's identity (in the modern sense) also made him vulnerable: While race was not conceptualized the way it is today, being Middle Eastern could have been a visible reminder of his status as a convert. Z, who described himself as a "half-gypsy", recounted several instances of prejudice because of his appearance being used to challenge his status as a Christian.

The last of my three interview partners, M, added a completely new and unknown perspective. According to him, while there certainly was "some political shit going on", the sodomy accusation had actually resulted from jealousy. The accuser had previously been rejected by Vogelsang, and the accusation had been revenge. (see Appendix C)

The only defending voice in the trial came from an unnamed officer, whose description has been erased, seemingly on purpose.

[Scan of a document that had an entire paragraph scratched out]

The remaining account merely states that he protested the sentence and was silenced by his superior, one Bishop Anghelescu. Despite the intervention, the officer was sentenced to whipping and being marked by claw, i.e. having a visible part of his body scarred. The nature of this punishment served to make his monstrousness - in this case supporting a sinner - physically apparent.

Monstrousness as a state of damnation-until-saved informed both the social structures of the Army and the identity of werewolves within the group. At the same time, these concepts were used by Emicho VI. and the Catholic church as a whole to enact control upon a highly organized and effective strike force. Monstrousness was tied to gender, sexuality, religion, and race. Deviations both voluntary and involuntary could be cause for punishment including death. The case Vogelsang illustrates this use of theology in the name of control and power, as enacted by Emicho VI.

[jkags-doodles]

Can the Blood of Eden Family keep track of time?

One of my favorite things to think about when engaging with a post-apocalyptic setting is the inevitable cultural changes that take place. In the case of Blood of Eden, North America has become a group of decentralized city-states with small village and nomadic populations dispersed between them, and this brings a lot of interesting questions. One of which is:

Standardized calendars are most helpful for 'complex civilizations' to maintain due to the need to keep track of larger and more specific periods of time, but they are far from universal. So, for a group of four people raised in four incredibly different environments, how does everyone keep track of time? What are their units? Is this at all compatible with one another?

Kanin is the only pre-plague representative in the family, so his understanding of time is likely the closest to ours as the readers. Even without a clock, he can estimate seconds/minutes/hours, and he's fairly good at keeping track of what year and month it is. If he goes to a city (most of which probably still used standard calendars) and sees the date, he's going to understand what it means.

Allie grew up in a vampire city, so I'd think she has the most similar grasp on the passage of time to the pre-plague era, because why wouldn't a powerful vampire city continue to use those units? So she understands weeks/months/years, if some city official announces it's September, she knows what that means, and can put it into context of what the weather should look like and how far off winter is. However, I don't think she keeps track of time in hours or any smaller unit, because she didn't grow up with access to clocks. Her most important thing to keep track of on the day-to-day was "can I get to safety before sunset", which makes the most sense to measure by what the sky looks like, so measurements like "golden hour" and "dusk" are going to be a lot more important than standard units.

And then there's the two frontier kids, which is where I image time measurements start showing a lot of variation from one location to another. While I think sixty years is a small enough time for most people to remember that standard measurements of time exist, some aren't going to be applicable in practice.

First: Minutes/hours have probably become obsolete in a lot of frontier groups, because they aren't based on anything in the physical world. Seconds are very short and easy to keep track of, so they can stay, but anything else is irrelevant. Jackal and Zeke might understand what they are, but they don't use them as actual forms of time measurement unless they're in Eden (Zeke) or handling pre-plague research (Jackal). Like Allie, they'd base time of day based on what the sky is doing, and if minutes and hours are still in their lexicon, they're probably used as a measurement of distance instead of time.

There's also a change in how time is based: rather than a standardized "XX of Month in year XXXX" system, it makes more sense to have everything revolve around the "now". Something is "one month ago" or "a few days from now", but there isn't much that's anchored. I doubt either of them have set birthdays— they know what season they were born in and can count the years, but that level of rigidity wouldn't make sense for small, non-centralized societies.

Zeke seemed to have grown up in a fairly isolated holler, and then traveled for 2-3 years with Jeb, looking for Eden. This is a type of travel that is not contingent on seasons or resource density, the way a lot of nomadic people travel, and therefore does not help him measure time. He canonically doesn't know if he's seventeen or eighteen, which means the rigid structure of time is not important to him, at least on that scale. I'd also assume that, being part of a Christian commune, he's good with weeks. In fact, I'd go out on a limb and say that days and weeks are his base units of measurement that he bases everything else off of due to the week's religious significance. For him, time is measured in units of seven— he doesn't know how old he is, but he knows when Sunday is.

(Zeke went to Eden, learned what a clock was, and immediately found a reason to leave)

Jackal grew up in an isolated home in the desert. That's as much as we know in the text. But from that context, we can safely assume that his family was largely self-sufficient, whether through farming, hunting, foraging, or (most likely, considering the desert) a combination of all three, and all of which would depend on understanding how seasons work in his specific climate. Therefore, I think that time is fairly fluid for Jackal, and based off of what's happening around him. He can estimate months based on moon cycles, and if he needs a specific day in that month for meeting purposes, he can pick new/full moon and everyone will know what he's talking about. There's no point in getting more specific. He bases seasons off of changes in weather, and knows a year has passed based on those seasons.

Conclusion: Can the Blood of Eden family keep track of time? Technically. Are they compatible with each other? Mileage may vary.

[lastimeexteriors-omaha]

How Can I Prepare My Home for a Roofing Project?

Regarding home improvement projects, a new roof is one of the most significant investments you can make. Proper preparation can help ensure your roofing project goes smoothly and your home remains protected. In this article, you will discover how to prepare your home for a roofing project with Lastime Exteriors, your trusted contractor.

Understanding the Roofing Process

Before diving into preparations, it’s essential to understand what a roofing project entails. Whether you’re replacing an old roof or installing a new one, the process typically involves:

Initial Inspection: A qualified roofing contractor will assess your current roof condition.

Material Selection: You’ll choose from roofing materials such as asphalt shingles, metal, or tiles.

Planning and Permits: This stage includes obtaining necessary permits and scheduling the work.

Installation: The installation process can take several days, depending on the roof size and material.

Final Inspection: A final check ensures the roof meets local building codes and quality standards.

Knowing these steps will help you prepare effectively.

Schedule Tasks in Advance

Once you choose Lastime Exteriors as your roofing contractor, it’s important to clarify a few details upfront:

Obtain Necessary Permits

Some roofing projects require building permits. Check with your contractor to see if permits are needed for your project. Ask whether you or the contractor will handle the application if they are. It’s wise to initiate the permit process promptly to avoid delays.

Coordinate with Service Providers

If you have any satellite dishes, solar panels, or other items on your roof, plan for their removal and replacement. Coordinate with the service providers so their schedules align with your roofing project timeline.

Preparing Your Home

Preparation isn’t solely about logistics; it also involves ensuring your home is ready for the project. Here’s how you can assist Lastime Exteriors in making the process go as smoothly as possible:

Clear the Area

Before the roofing work begins, clear the area around your home. Move outdoor furniture, planters, and decorations away from the work zone. This will protect your belongings and provide ample space for the roofing crew to operate.

Secure Your Pets and Children

The presence of strangers and the construction noise can be stressful for pets and small children. During the most active installation periods, keeping them in a different part of the house or arranging their care elsewhere is a good idea. This ensures their safety and minimizes distractions for the roofing crew.

Identify Electric Outlets

Your roofing contractor may need to use electric tools during the installation. Before work begins, walk the perimeter of your house with your contractor to identify accessible electrical outlets. This will streamline the work process and ensure that your contractor has the necessary power for their tools.

Effective Communication With Your Roofing Contractor

Establishing open lines of communication with Lastime Exteriors is essential for a successful roofing project. Here are key points to discuss:

Project Timelines

Communicate your expectations regarding the project timeline. Ask your contractor about the estimated duration of the project and any potential weather-related delays. This will help you plan accordingly.

Waste Management

Discuss how waste will be handled during the roofing project. Will your contractor provide a dumpster, or will debris be collected differently? Understanding the waste management plan can help you prepare your home and yard accordingly.

Address Concerns

If you have any concerns about the project, don’t hesitate to voice them. Whether it’s about noise levels, safety, or installation, maintaining clear communication will help meet your needs.

Planning for Weather Contingencies

Weather can be unpredictable, so planning for inclement conditions is wise. Here are some considerations:

Monitor Weather Forecasts: Keep an eye on the weather leading up to and during your roofing project.

Prepare for Delays: Understand that rain or storms may delay the project. Discuss with Lastime Exteriors how they will handle such scenarios.

Protect Landscaping: If rain is expected, consider covering any exposed areas of your landscaping to protect them from debris and heavy rainfall.

Final Inspection and Follow-Up

Once installation is complete, a final inspection ensures that the work meets local building codes and your expectations. Here’s what to expect after the installation:

Schedule a Walkthrough

Arrange for a walkthrough with your contractor to inspect the completed work. This is a good opportunity to address any final concerns and confirm that the project is completed satisfactorily.

Understand Warranty Information

Ensure you understand any warranties associated with your new roof. Discuss the specifics with Lastime Exteriors so you know what is covered and for how long.

Maintenance Tips

Finally, ask your contractor for maintenance tips to help you care for your new roof. Regular upkeep can extend its lifespan and keep your home looking great.

Call Us Today!

Preparing your home for a roofing project may seem daunting, but by taking these steps, you can ensure a smooth experience with Lastime Exteriors. From obtaining permits to communicating with your contractor, each action contributes to successfully installing your new roof.

Are you ready to start your roofing project? Your roof is our priority, and we’re here to help you every step of the way.

[shaharbansblog]

HOW TO MAKE MONEY IN REAL ESTATE IN DUBAI

Investing in real estate in Dubai is highly lucrative, especially through property flipping and distressed property dealings. Now, let me go to the simplified explanation of how such methods are approached.

Property Flipping

Property flipping involves the process of buying any particular property, improving it, and then selling it for a good profit. This is how you can go about it:

1 Find the Right Property: Search out undervalued homes or ones in disrepair that may be in up-and-coming sections of town, or in some sort of distressed sale.

2. Plan the Renovation Needed: Based on what really needs to be improved or replaced, prepare the cost estimate involved. Focus efforts on the right kind of renovation that is bound to raise property value.

3. Secure Financing: Let renovation and purchase of a property be facilitated by savings, loans, or joint ventures.

4. Renovate Wisely: Carry out all intended renovations, putting in mind very good budgeting and timing. Quality work largely boosts the selling price of the house.

5. Sell at the Right Time: Once renovations are complete, list the property for sale. Timing can be important: selling when the market is hot can raise your profits significantly.

Dealing in Distressed Properties

Distressed properties are those that sell for less than their current market value because the owner is in a distressed situation and needs to sell immediately. The following describes how to profit from a distressed property:

1. Find distressed properties: These could be in the form of an auction, bank foreclosures, or properties which have just been on the market for some time.

2. Analyze for potential: Not every distressed property constitutes a good deal; check out what needs repairs and what after-repair value it can reach.

3. Negate the Purchase: There is always some rush from the sellers to sell the house, so always give in to accommodating some negotiation leverage. Seek to buy at a price that will allow renovation costs plus a profit margin.

4. Renovate and Sell: Buy the property and enhance features necessary for sale at an appreciated value.

Key Considerations

First, relevant market research is done to establish the trend in the prevailing real estate market in Dubai. This may indicate that some areas would offer better prospects either for flipping or for distressed property deals.

Legal Compliance: The transaction should be in complete compliance with the local laws and regulations. It is highly advisable that a real estate attorney is consulted to go through all the legal requirements.

 Financial Planning: Have a very clear budget in mind: purchase price, renovation cost, holding costs-like utilities and taxes-and contingency for unexpected expenses.

Risk Management: Estimate other likely pitfalls, from market fluctuation to the risk of unforeseen repair costs. Settle upon a backup plan if possible that would decrease these risks.

While Dubai is a very vibrant real estate market, with some very real substantial opportunities for flipping and distressed property investment, this will require careful property selection and very detailed management of the renovation process.

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS(FAQ)

1. What is Property Flipping?

Property flipping, in simple words, means property bought, renovated, and sold for an amount higher than the original buying price. In other words, through renovations, you plan on increasing the value of the property.

2. What is a distressed property?

A house which is being sold at an even lower price due to urgency arising at the owner's end to sell his property either due to foreclosure, financial issues etc

[uniqueestimations]

Step-by-Step Guide: How to Estimate Construction Costs for a New Home

Accurately estimating construction costs is essential when planning to build your dream home. Understanding and calculating these expenses helps in making informed financial decisions and avoiding unexpected surprises. Here’s a detailed, step-by-step guide on how to perform a thorough construction cost estimate for your new home.

If You Need more Information about cost Estimations, visit this Website -> https://uniqueestimations.com/new-york-construction-estimating-services/

1. Understand the Types of Construction Cost Estimates

There are different methods for estimating costs depending on the stage of your construction project:

Preliminary Estimate: An early-stage estimate based on basic information.

Detailed Estimate: Involves itemized costs for materials, labor, permits, and more.

Bid Estimate: Prepared by contractors and includes detailed pricing for project execution.

Selecting the right construction cost estimator for your project depends on your project’s complexity and accuracy needs.

2. Define the Scope of Your Project

To start estimating, it’s important to clearly outline:

Square Footage: Determine the size of the home.

Design Complexity: Architectural style and special features add complexity and cost.

Quality of Materials: Decide between budget, standard, or high-end finishes.

Having a well-defined project scope ensures that your cost estimation in construction is accurate and reliable.

3. Calculate Material Costs

Material costs often constitute a significant portion of new construction estimating costs. Factors to consider include:

Foundation Materials: Concrete, steel reinforcements, and formwork.

Structural Components: Wood, steel, or concrete framing.

Exterior Finishes: Siding, roofing materials, and insulation.

Interior Finishes: Flooring, drywall, cabinetry, and paint.

Consulting local suppliers and utilizing a construction cost estimator can help you get current pricing.

4. Account for Labor Costs

Labor expenses can vary widely based on your location, the size of your project, and the expertise required. Common roles involved include:

General Contractors: Manage the entire construction project.

Specialized Contractors: Focus on plumbing, electrical work, and HVAC installation.

Skilled Laborers: Carpenters, masons, and roofers.

Make sure to factor in wages, benefits, and potential overtime when estimating construction costs for labor.

5. Include Permits and Legal Fees

Local regulations often require permits for various aspects of home construction, including:

Building permits

Plumbing and electrical permits

Environmental impact assessments

Research the requirements in your area and budget accordingly to avoid delays or fines.

6. Don’t Forget About Utility and Site Preparation Costs

These expenses cover tasks that prepare the land for construction and ensure the home is connected to essential services:

Site Clearing and Excavation: Removing vegetation and leveling the site.

Utility Hookups: Connecting water, sewer, gas, and electricity to the property.

Driveway and Landscaping: Installing access roads and outdoor spaces.

Including these in your construction estimating costs ensures you capture the full scope of expenses.

7. Estimate Plumbing and Electrical Costs

Specialty work like plumbing and electrical installations requires detailed estimates. Utilize a new construction plumbing cost estimator to calculate the expenses for:

Plumbing: Pipes, fittings, and fixtures for kitchens, bathrooms, and outdoor areas.

Electrical Systems: Wiring, outlets, switches, and lighting installations.

These components are critical to home functionality and should be accurately budgeted.

8. Factor in Contingency Costs

Unexpected expenses often arise during construction. To mitigate financial strain, allocate:

5% to 15% of Total Budget: For unanticipated changes or issues.

Price Fluctuations: For materials and labor due to market conditions.

Including a contingency buffer is essential for realistic cost estimation in construction.

9. Use Construction Cost Estimating Tools

Modern technology makes it easier to get accurate estimates with tools such as:

Online Construction Estimators: Provide quick preliminary cost insights.

Software Programs: Offer detailed and customizable reports.

Professional Services: Hiring a professional estimator can add precision and expertise.

Selecting the right tool depends on your project’s complexity and your need for accuracy.

10. Review and Adjust Your Estimate Regularly

As your project progresses, costs may change. Continuously updating your estimate ensures that your budget remains accurate and relevant. Factors to reassess include:

Changes in material prices

Design adjustments

Project delays

Regular reviews help maintain control over your estimating construction costs and prevent budget overruns.

Final Thoughts

Accurately estimating construction costs for a new home requires careful planning, detailed calculations, and regular monitoring. By following these steps, you can confidently manage your budget and make informed decisions throughout the construction process.

If you want to read more information about construction cost Estimation Website just visit --> https://uniqueestimations.com/new-york-construction-estimating-services/

[asestimationsconsultants]

How Accurate Is a Construction Cost Estimating Service Today?

Accuracy in construction cost estimating is a critical factor that directly impacts project success. With the rising complexity of modern construction projects and fluctuating market conditions, many stakeholders wonder: just how accurate is a construction cost estimating service today? This article explores the factors affecting estimating accuracy, common challenges, and how today’s technologies and best practices improve estimate reliability.

Factors Influencing Estimating Accuracy

Several elements influence the precision of a construction cost estimate:

Project Scope Definition The level of design detail strongly affects accuracy. Early-stage or conceptual estimates tend to be less precise due to limited drawings or specifications. As project plans mature, estimators can provide more detailed and reliable figures.

Data Quality and Sources Accurate cost estimating depends on up-to-date pricing data for materials, labor, and equipment. Using outdated or regionally irrelevant data can cause discrepancies. Reliable estimating services constantly update their cost databases to reflect current market rates.

Estimator Experience and Methodology Experienced estimators apply proven methodologies, industry standards, and risk assessment techniques. Their expertise in interpreting plans and anticipating challenges leads to better accuracy compared to automated or less experienced approaches.

Complexity and Project Type Simple projects with straightforward design and well-known materials are easier to estimate accurately. Complex projects—such as large commercial buildings or industrial facilities—introduce more variables that increase uncertainty.

Use of Technology Advanced estimating software and Building Information Modeling (BIM) integration help improve accuracy by automating quantity takeoffs and linking design changes directly to cost updates. This reduces manual errors and speeds up estimate revisions.

Common Accuracy Ranges

Accuracy is often expressed as a range or percentage variance from the actual project cost. Typical accuracy levels vary by estimate type and project stage:

Preliminary or conceptual estimates: ±15% to ±30%

Schematic design estimates: ±10% to ±20%

Detailed or bid estimates: ±5% to ±10%

It’s important to understand that no estimate can guarantee 100% accuracy due to unforeseen factors like weather, labor strikes, or supply chain disruptions.

How Estimating Services Improve Accuracy

Regularly updating cost databases: Reflecting current prices reduces pricing errors.

Conducting detailed quantity takeoffs: Precise measurement reduces scope gaps.

Collaborating with subcontractors and suppliers: Incorporating real bids enhances reliability.

Applying risk management contingencies: Buffers prepare budgets for uncertainties.

Leveraging technology: Automated tools reduce manual calculation mistakes.

Why Accuracy Matters

Accurate construction cost estimates contribute to better budget control, more effective bidding, and fewer costly change orders. They provide confidence to owners, contractors, and investors, enabling informed decision-making and smoother project delivery.

FAQs

What causes inaccuracies in construction cost estimates? Inaccuracies often stem from incomplete project information, outdated cost data, unexpected site conditions, and design changes during construction.

Can technology guarantee 100% accurate estimates? No technology can fully eliminate uncertainty, but it significantly improves accuracy by reducing human errors and increasing data integration.

How often should estimates be updated during a project? Estimates should be updated at key project milestones, such as after design revisions or major scope changes, to maintain accuracy.

Conclusion

While no construction cost estimating service can provide perfect accuracy, modern practices and technologies have greatly improved estimate reliability. Understanding the factors that influence accuracy helps stakeholders set realistic expectations and plan contingencies effectively. Ultimately, partnering with a skilled estimating service reduces financial risks and supports successful project outcomes.

[darkmaga-returns]

By Muhammad Zamir

BRICS, an intergovernmental economic-political organization, comprises Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates. Originally it was constituted to assist in the identification and highlighting of investment opportunities. The grouping has eventually evolved into an actual geopolitical bloc, with their governments meeting annually aimed at coordinating multilateral policies through formal Summits since 2009. Currently, bilateral relations among BRICS are conducted mainly based on non-interference, equality, and mutual benefit.

It may be recalled that the founding countries of Brazil, Russia, India, and China held the first Summit in Yekaterinburg in 2009, with South Africa joining the bloc a year later. Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates joined the organization on 1 January 2024. Saudi Arabia has not joined officially as yet, but participates in the Organization’s activities as an invited nation.

One needs to understand the importance of this Group through some statistics. Combined, the BRICS members encompass about 30% of the world's land surface and 45% of the global population. South Africa has the largest economy in Africa whereas Brazil, Russia, India, and China are among the world's ten largest countries by population, area, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and also through purchasing power parity (PPP). All five initial member states are also Members of the G20, with a combined nominal GDP of US Dollar 28 trillion which amounts to about 27% of the Gross World Product, and a total GDP (PPP) of around US Dollar 57 trillion (33% of global GDP PPP), and an estimated US Dollar 4.5 trillion in combined foreign reserves (as of 2018).

The BRICS countries are considered as the foremost geopolitical rival to the G7 Bloc comprising the leading advanced economies, implementing competing initiatives such as the New Development Bank, the BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement. These data have originated from the BRICS Joint Statistical Publication. All these details have led to BRICS receiving both praise and criticism from numerous commentators.

I am referring to the geo-political denotations of BRICS in this article to draw attention to the fact that the next BRICS Summit is scheduled to take place in Kazan, Russia, October 22 to 24. Significantly, during its BRICS Presidency this year, Russia has said it will focus on "promoting the entire range of partnership and cooperation within the framework of the association on three key tracks – politics and security, the economy and finance, and cultural and humanitarian ties. All of these have particular connotations.

[optibuild-estimating]

The Importance of Estimators in the Building Industry

Introduction

In the complex world of the building industry, precision and foresight are crucial to the success of any construction project. This is where estimators play a vital role. Estimators are professionals specializing in accurately assessing and calculating the various aspects of a construction project, from costs to materials and labor. In Australia, estimating services, such as OptiBuild Estimating, are indispensable for contractors seeking a clear and comprehensive understanding of their projects. In this blog post, we will explore the significance of estimators in the building industry and how partnering with OptiBuild can benefit your construction endeavors.

Financial Clarity and Avoiding Unforeseen Costs

Detailed estimates provided by estimators offer contractors a clear and precise picture of the financial landscape of their projects. By conducting a thorough assessment and calculation of all factors, estimators help avoid unforeseen costs and budget overruns. OptiBuild Estimating, as a trusted provider of construction estimating services in Australia, ensures that your project's financials are meticulously analyzed, providing you with the clarity needed to make informed decisions and avoid financial pitfalls.

Optimal Resource Allocation and Reduction of Wastage

Accurate insights into material and labor requirements are essential for efficient resource allocation. Estimators, such as OptiBuild, possess the expertise to determine the optimal amount of resources needed for each construction project. By avoiding over or under allocation, contractors can maximize efficiency and reduce wastage. OptiBuild's expertise in electrical estimating, among other areas, allows them to provide precise resource allocation guidance, ensuring seamless project management and cost-effectiveness.

Enhancing Bidding Strategies and Securing Contracts

Strategic bidding is a critical aspect of the construction industry. Estimators play a significant role in equipping contractors with precise and competitive bids, increasing their chances of securing valuable contracts. OptiBuild Estimating's meticulous analysis and accurate assessments enable you to present compelling bids that stand out in a competitive market. By partnering with OptiBuild Estimating, you can enhance your bidding strategies and increase your success rate in securing new projects.

Risk Management and Contingency Planning

Successful project delivery requires proactive risk management and contingency planning. Estimators assist contractors in identifying potential risks and challenges early on. By conducting thorough estimations, OptiBuild Estimating can help contractors anticipate and mitigate risks effectively. This enables proactive decision-making and the implementation of contingency plans in case of unforeseen circumstances during the construction process.

Streamlined Planning Process and Timely Project Delivery

Efficient project planning is vital for timely project delivery. Detailed estimates provided by estimators contribute to streamlining the planning process. OptiBuild Estimating's expertise ensures that every aspect of your project is accounted for, enabling smooth coordination between various stakeholders and ensuring timely project completion. By partnering with OptiBuild Estimating, you can benefit from their exceptional project management support, laying the groundwork for successful and timely project delivery.

Conclusion

Estimators play a crucial role in the building industry by providing contractors with accurate and comprehensive assessments of construction projects. OptiBuild Estimating, a reputable provider of estimating services in Australia, specializes in construction estimating, including electrical estimating. By partnering with OptiBuild, you can benefit from their expertise, enabling precise financial clarity, optimal resource allocation, strategic bidding, risk mitigation, and streamlined project planning. Take advantage of OptiBuild Estimating's professional services to enhance the success of your construction projects.

[mcginnlawfirm]

What is a good retainer fee?

When seeking legal services, particularly in Council Bluffs, understanding retainer fees is a key part of ensuring you’re prepared financially and logistically. A retainer fee is an upfront payment made to secure a lawyer’s services, giving you peace of mind that your case will receive the attention it deserves. But how do you determine what makes a retainer fee “good”? Let’s dive into the factors that affect retainer fees, what you can expect, and how to navigate retainer agreements with confidence.

What is a Retainer Fee?

A retainer fee is a payment made to a lawyer to secure their time and services. It’s a common practice in many areas of law, from family cases to business contracts. This fee acts as an advance against future work the lawyer will perform. It’s important to note that retainer fees are not universal—what you pay depends on the type of legal service you need, the lawyer’s expertise, and the complexity of your case.

Types of Retainer Fees

To better understand what you’re paying for, it’s helpful to know the different types of retainer fees:

1. General Retainer

Paid to ensure the lawyer’s availability for a specific period, even if no services are rendered during that time.

Typically used when you anticipate needing ongoing legal advice or representation.

2. Security Retainer

Funds are placed in a trust account, and the lawyer deducts from it as work is completed.

Any unused funds are refunded at the end of the agreement.

3. Advance Payment Retainer

The lawyer owns these funds immediately, and they are not held in a separate account.

This type of retainer may not include refunds for unused portions.

Factors that Influence a Good Retainer Fee

Several key factors determine what constitutes a fair and reasonable retainer fee:

1. Complexity of the Case

The more complicated your legal matter, the more time and resources your lawyer will need to devote, which can increase the retainer fee. For example:

Simple legal matters like drafting a will or reviewing a contract may require a lower retainer fee.

Complex cases such as litigation or corporate disputes may demand a higher upfront payment.

2. Experience of the Lawyer

Lawyers with extensive experience, specialized expertise, or a strong track record in a particular area often charge higher fees. Their expertise can save you time and potentially increase your chances of success, making the higher retainer a worthwhile investment.

3. Geographic Location

The cost of legal services can vary significantly depending on the region. In Council Bluffs, retainer fees may be more affordable compared to larger cities where overhead costs and demand for legal services are higher.

4. Scope of Services

A good retainer fee should reflect the breadth of services you’ll receive. Comprehensive agreements covering consultations, document preparation, and court representation may have a higher fee than those with limited scope.

Average Retainer Fees by Case Type

While retainer fees can vary widely, understanding general ranges can help you budget appropriately. Here are some estimates:

Simple Legal Matters: $500–$1,500

Family Law Cases: $2,500–$10,000

Criminal Defense: $5,000–$25,000

These figures are general guidelines and can fluctuate based on the factors discussed earlier.

Retainer Fees for Personal Injury Cases

In many personal injury cases, attorneys operate on a contingency fee basis rather than requiring an upfront retainer. This means they are paid a percentage (typically 25%–40%) of the settlement or award once the case concludes. This arrangement allows people to access legal representation without needing to pay large sums upfront.

Benefits of Retainer Agreements

Having a lawyer on retainer offers several advantages:

Priority Access: Lawyers prioritize clients with retainer agreements, ensuring your legal needs are addressed promptly.

Peace of Mind: A retainer agreement secures the lawyer’s commitment to your case, minimizing delays.

Budget Clarity: Retainer agreements outline costs upfront, helping you plan your legal expenses effectively.

What to Look for in a Retainer Agreement

Before signing a retainer agreement, it’s important to review and understand the terms carefully. Here are some key considerations:

1. Scope of Work

Clearly define what services the retainer covers. This prevents misunderstandings about additional costs or services not included.

2. Fee Structure

Ensure the agreement outlines how the retainer is calculated, used, and whether unused funds will be refunded.

3. Communication Policies

Understand how often you’ll receive updates about your case and how the lawyer will communicate with you.

4. Additional Costs

Clarify any extra fees for court filings, expert witnesses, or other expenses not covered by the retainer.

How to Negotiate a Fair Retainer Fee

Negotiating retainer fees is not uncommon, and being prepared can help you secure a fair agreement:

Be Transparent About Your Budget: Discuss your financial situation openly to find a solution that works for both you and your lawyer.

Ask for a Payment Plan: Some lawyers may offer flexible payment schedules for larger retainer fees.

Request a Breakdown of Costs: Understanding how the retainer will be used can help you evaluate its fairness.

When to Contact a Personal Injury Lawyer in Council Bluffs

If you’re navigating legal challenges, a retainer fee is often the first step toward resolving your case. A good lawyer will ensure you understand the terms of the agreement and provide clarity on what services you’re paying for. Whether you’re dealing with a personal injury case, family law issue, or another legal matter, having an experienced lawyer by your side can make all the difference.

Understanding retainer fees is just the beginning of your legal journey. If you’re ready to move forward, don’t wait to seek the support you need. Contact our personal injury lawyer in Council Bluffs to discuss your case and explore the best legal options for your situation.

[wgdemolitioncontractors]

10 Common Mistakes to Avoid During Demolition Site Cleanup

Demolition projects create a unique set of challenges, especially when it comes to site cleanup. While taking down structures can seem straightforward, the process of cleaning up afterward is far more intricate and critical to the success of the project. Poorly managed cleanup can lead to safety hazards, project delays, and regulatory penalties.

To help contractors, project managers, and business owners achieve efficient, safe, and compliant demolition cleanup, we’ve compiled a list of the most common mistakes you should avoid. By steering clear of these pitfalls, you can ensure your site cleanup is thorough, safe, and aligned with local regulations.

Why Proper Demolition Cleanup Matters

Before jumping into the mistakes, it’s worth highlighting why demolition cleanup warrants attention. Proper site cleanup:

Ensures the safety of workers on-site and future occupants.

Reduces environmental impact by handling hazardous materials properly.

Complies with local laws and avoids hefty penalties.

Speeds up the transition to the next phase of the project.

Ignoring any of these areas can result in costly mistakes that derail your project timeline and budget. Now, let's get into what you need to avoid.

Mistake #1: Neglecting Safety Procedures

It’s easy to focus solely on completing the demolition without giving enough thought to cleanup safety protocols. However, loose debris, unstable structures, and sharp objects can lead to serious injuries if proper precautions aren’t taken.

How to Avoid It:

Equip all workers with appropriate personal protective equipment (PPE), such as gloves, hard hats, boots with steel toes, and safety goggles.

Conduct a safety briefing before cleanup begins to highlight potential hazards.

Regularly inspect equipment and tools to ensure they’re in working condition.

Mistake #2: Skipping Permits and Regulations

Local governments often have strict regulations around demolition, debris removal, and waste disposal. Overlooking these requirements can result in expensive fines or even project shutdowns.

How to Avoid It:

Research local codes and regulations before starting the project.

Obtain all necessary permits for disposing of waste and hazardous materials.

Work with licensed professionals to ensure compliance with environmental laws.

Mistake #3: Improper Handling of Hazardous Materials

Many demolition projects involve hazardous materials, such as asbestos, lead paint, and chemical residues. Mishandling them not only harms the environment but also poses serious health risks to workers.

How to Avoid It:

Test for hazardous materials in the structure before demolition begins.

Hire certified professionals to safely handle and dispose of materials like asbestos and lead.

Follow EPA and OSHA guidelines on hazardous waste disposal.

Mistake #4: Underestimating Waste Volume

One of the most common mistakes is failing to plan for the actual amount of debris generated during demolition. Underestimating waste can lead to inadequate resources and scheduling delays.

How to Avoid It:

Conduct a thorough site assessment to estimate the volume and type of debris.

Rent dumpsters or containers in appropriate sizes to accommodate all waste.

Have a contingency plan for overflow or unexpected debris.

Mistake #5: Failing to Separate Waste

Mixing demolition debris isn’t just inefficient; it can also conflict with recycling requirements and increase disposal costs. Proper segregation of materials like wood, concrete, and metal is key.

How to Avoid It:

Set up separate collection areas for different types of debris (e.g., recyclables vs. general waste).

Train your team on the importance of sorting materials and how to do it effectively.

Partner with recycling facilities that accept construction waste.

Mistake #6: Overlooking Dust Control

Demolition generates a significant amount of dust, which can adversely affect air quality, harm workers' respiratory health, and create visibility issues on-site.

How to Avoid It:

Use misting systems or water sprays to suppress dust during and after demolition.

Enforce respiratory protection for all workers.

Monitor air quality levels to ensure that they stay within acceptable limits.

Mistake #7: Not Recycling Materials

Throwing away recyclable materials not only harms the environment but also misses out on opportunities to save money. Many materials from demolition, such as metal and concrete, can be reused or recycled.

How to Avoid It:

Partner with recycling services that specialize in construction and demolition debris.

Evaluate materials like brick, concrete, and glass to determine if they can be repurposed.

Use recycled materials in future construction projects to close the loop.

Mistake #8: Ignoring Heavy Equipment Maintenance

Heavy equipment like excavators, loaders, and bulldozers are essential for demolition cleanup. Ignoring proper maintenance or forcing them to operate under subpar conditions can lead to costly breakdowns.

How to Avoid It:

Follow a strict maintenance schedule for all equipment.

Perform pre-use and post-use inspections to identify any issues.

Train operators to handle equipment efficiently and safely.

Mistake #9: Rushing the Process

Cleanup is often seen as the last phase of the project, leading some teams to rush through it in an effort to meet deadlines. However, cutting corners can result in safety risks and incomplete cleanup.

How to Avoid It:

Allocate adequate time for each phase of cleanup in the project timeline.

Monitor progress and address any bottlenecks immediately.

Conduct a final walkthrough to ensure the site is truly clean and safe.

Mistake #10: Overlooking Post-Cleanup Documentation

Once the cleanup is done, many teams forget to document the process. This can be problematic if issues arise later or if proof of proper cleanup is required.

How to Avoid It:

Keep records of waste disposal receipts, recycling efforts, and safety inspections.

Take “before” and “after” photos of the site to demonstrate thorough cleanup.

Create a checklist to track all tasks and confirm nothing was missed.

Wrapping Up

Demolition site cleanup isn’t just about aesthetics; it’s about creating a safe, compliant, and efficient work environment for the next stages of the project. By avoiding common mistakes like neglecting safety, mishandling hazardous materials, and rushing through cleanup, teams can save time, money, and resources while ensuring success.

If you’re planning your next demolition project, keeping these tips in mind will make the process much smoother. For more professional advice or help managing your cleanup process, consider reaching out to specialists in demolition site services.

We serve Acworth, Atlanta, Austell, Bowdon, Bremen, Buchanan, Carrollton, Chattahoochee Hills, College Park, Dallas, Douglasville, East Cobb, East Point, Fayetteville, Hiram, Kennesaw, Lithia Springs, Marietta, Mableton, Mt. Zion, Newnan, Palmetto, Powder Springs, Rockmart, Smyrna, South Fulton, Tallapoosa, Temple, Union City, Villa Rica, Vinings, and Whitesburg Ga

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West Georgia Demolition Contractors

Douglasville, GA 30135

678-616-8346 Original Post : https://www.wgdemolitioncontractors.com/10-common-mistakes-to-avoid-during-demolition-site-cleanup