#what’s a realistic margin of error in estimating

[asestimationsconsultants]

How Accurate Are Estimates from a Cost Estimating Service in Australia

Accuracy is the cornerstone of every cost estimating service in Australia. For builders, developers, architects, and clients, the reliability of an estimate can determine whether a project proceeds smoothly or falls into financial risk. When provided by qualified professionals, cost estimates in Australia can be impressively precise—but several factors influence just how close an estimate is to actual construction costs.

Factors That Influence Estimate Accuracy

Accuracy in cost estimating depends on the quality of project documentation. If the design drawings, scope of work, and specifications are complete and clear, estimators have a strong foundation to deliver a tightly aligned forecast. Australian estimators also rely on robust local databases like Rawlinsons and Cordell, which provide real-time pricing for materials, labour, and equipment across different states and cities.

Experienced estimators also factor in regional conditions such as soil quality, access challenges, local labour availability, and even weather patterns, which can impact both scheduling and costs. This attention to detail leads to highly accurate projections, particularly in urban centres like Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane where market data is consistently updated.

Industry Standards for Estimate Tiers

Cost estimating services in Australia often use a tiered system to indicate the expected accuracy range. For example:

Order of Magnitude Estimate: Used in early planning, typically accurate within ±25–40%.

Preliminary Estimate: Based on schematic designs, with ±15–25% accuracy.

Detailed Estimate: Based on construction-ready drawings, with ±5–10% accuracy.

Definitive Estimate: The most accurate, often within ±2–5%, suitable for tenders and financing.

This structure ensures clients understand the level of confidence attached to the estimate and can make budget decisions accordingly.

Impact of Local Experience and Data Sources

A cost estimating service in Australia that’s familiar with local council requirements, builder practices, and regional pricing trends can deliver much more accurate numbers. For example, understanding the cost differences between building in inner Sydney versus rural NSW is essential for precision. Services that maintain relationships with subcontractors and suppliers also have access to more realistic figures rather than relying on outdated pricing averages.

Common Reasons for Variances

Even a well-prepared estimate can differ from final costs due to changes in scope, labour shortages, unforeseen site conditions, or price fluctuations. However, a professional estimator will include contingencies and escalation allowances to reduce the impact of such changes. High-quality services also offer post-estimate support to help clients revise budgets or value engineer where necessary.

FAQs

How accurate can I expect my estimate to be if I only have a basic floor plan? With minimal documentation, most services will provide a preliminary estimate, which typically has a ±15–25% margin of error. For greater accuracy, more detailed plans are essential.

Are Australian estimates adjusted for inflation or market conditions? Yes. Reliable services use cost escalation forecasts and market trend analysis to account for material price changes and labour inflation over time.

Can an estimate guarantee my final construction cost? No estimate can guarantee the final cost due to uncontrollable factors like design changes or market volatility. However, a well-prepared estimate can come within 5–10% of actual costs in most cases.

Is it worth paying for a high-accuracy estimate early in planning? Yes, particularly for large or complex projects. Early investment in accurate estimating helps avoid costly overruns and supports financial approvals or tender submissions.

Conclusion

Estimates from a cost estimating service in Australia can be highly accurate when built on solid documentation, local knowledge, and current data. While no estimate can foresee every variable, partnering with a qualified service ensures you have a realistic and strategic foundation for budgeting. In Australia’s competitive construction environment, estimate accuracy isn’t just a benefit—it’s a necessity.

[solararka360]

Why Accurate Solar Quotes Depend on the Right Software

Getting a solar quote should be simple, right? In theory, yes—but in practice, it can get messy fast.

Think about it: every solar customer wants to know three things—how much it’ll cost, how much they’ll save, and what the system will look like on their property. As a solar professional, it’s your job to answer those questions quickly and accurately.

 But when your quoting process involves jumping between spreadsheets, outdated price lists, and manual drawings, the risk of errors skyrockets.

That’s where the right software comes in.

In today’s fast-moving solar industry, accuracy isn’t just about looking good on paper. It’s about building trust, winning deals, and keeping projects on budget. 

This blog dives into why precise quoting matters and how the right solar software makes all the difference, from the first click to the final signature.

Introduction: The Impact of Inaccurate Quoting

We’ve all seen it happen: a quote goes out with optimistic numbers, but once the actual system design is done, the cost jumps up. Maybe the roof layout wasn’t factored in properly, or the labor cost was underestimated. Now you’re left either absorbing the difference or renegotiating with a confused and frustrated customer.

Inaccurate quoting doesn’t just hurt your margins—it damages your credibility. It leads to mistrust, project delays, and in worst cases, cancelled installations. In a market where word-of-mouth and online reviews matter more than ever, you simply can’t afford to get it wrong.

This is why more solar companies are turning to purpose-built quoting software. With the right tools, you don’t just quote—you present a realistic, customized plan that’s ready to go.

Key Features of Solar Quoting Software

So, what makes solar quoting software actually good? At its core, it should help you work smarter, faster, and more accurately. Here are some must-have features:

1. Accurate System Sizing

Good software helps you calculate the system size based on the customer’s roof dimensions, shading, orientation, and energy usage. No more over-promising or under-delivering.

2. Real-Time Pricing

Your quote is only as accurate as your price data. The right platform pulls from real-time or customizable price databases so you can quote labor, panels, inverters, and BOS components accurately every time.

3. Incentive & Tax Credit Integration

Whether it’s the federal solar tax credit or local rebates, good quoting tools automatically calculate applicable incentives so customers get a clear picture of net cost and ROI.

4. Visual Proposals

It’s one thing to say the system will work. It’s another to show it with a layout, performance estimate, and professional-looking proposal. Visuals build trust and close deals.

5. Financing Options

Many homeowners and businesses rely on loans or leases. Software that integrates financing lets you showcase different payment plans and monthly savings in a few clicks.

The goal? A quoting system that removes guesswork and replaces it with confidence.

Linking Design, Costing, and Proposals

Here’s the thing: quoting doesn’t happen in a vacuum. It’s part of a bigger workflow that starts with site assessment and ends with installation.

When design, costing, and proposals aren’t linked, mistakes happen. You might design a beautiful layout, but if your quote doesn’t match the panel count or include the right inverter model, the numbers fall apart. Similarly, if you change the design later but forget to update the quote, your profit margin could disappear.

That’s why integration matters.

Modern solar software platforms connect design tools with pricing engines and proposal templates. Update one piece of the puzzle—say, you switch to higher-efficiency panels—and everything else updates automatically. It keeps your team aligned and your quotes consistent.

Improving Customer Trust with Transparent Quotes

Let’s be real: nobody likes vague estimates. Customers want transparency—they want to understand why they’re paying a certain amount, what they’re getting, and how it all benefits them.

With the right quoting software, you can give them just that.

Breakdowns of system components, lifetime energy production graphs, and savings forecasts help customers feel informed rather than overwhelmed. And when you can answer their “what if” questions on the spot—thanks to dynamic quoting tools—you’re no longer just a salesperson. You’re a trusted advisor.

Clear quotes lead to confident buyers. And confident buyers sign faster.

Best Tools for Accurate Commercial Solar Quotes

While residential quoting can be complex, commercial solar quotes are a whole different ballgame. You’re dealing with larger systems, custom configurations, multi-meter setups, and often more involved financial modeling.

Here are some tools that excel in the commercial quoting space:

ARKA 360 – A powerful all-in-one platform that combines design, accurate quoting, and dynamic proposals under one roof. ARKA 360 is built to streamline commercial and residential workflows, cutting down quote time while enhancing accuracy. 

Aurora Solar – Offers detailed 3D modeling, shading analysis, and integrated financial modeling, ideal for complex commercial sites.

Helioscope – Known for its engineering-grade simulations and large-scale design capabilities. Great for utility and C&I scale projects.

SolarGraf – User-friendly and quick, with a strong emphasis on proposal generation.

For commercial projects, accuracy is non-negotiable. These tools provide the scalability and flexibility needed to handle large bids with confidence.

Conclusion: Accuracy Begins with the Right Software

At the end of the day, solar quoting isn’t just about numbers—it’s about trust, professionalism, and efficiency. An inaccurate quote can cost you a deal. But the right quote, delivered at the right time, can close it on the spot.

The best solar companies are investing in smarter quoting tools not just to look better, but to be better. Better at planning, presenting, and delivering solar solutions that meet real customer needs.

From reducing human error to improving proposal speed and clarity, quoting software has become the backbone of successful solar sales teams. Whether you’re a solo installer or managing multi-million-dollar commercial projects, the message is clear:

Accuracy doesn’t happen by accident. It happens with the right software.

[mandtcontract]

M&T Construction’s Commercial Estimating Services: Building with Confidence from Day One

In the world of commercial construction, success begins well before the first worker arrives on site or the first piece of material is delivered. It starts with planning—detailed, precise, and forward-thinking planning. At the heart of this process lies estimating. For developers, investors, architects, and general contractors, knowing the real cost, timeline, and scope of a project is critical to making informed decisions.

That’s where M&T Construction steps in. As a trusted construction partner based in Mobile, Alabama, M&T Construction offers more than just high-quality builds—they provide confidence from day one through their expert Commercial Estimating services in Mobile.

Laying the Groundwork with Precision

A commercial estimate isn’t just a guess—it’s a comprehensive assessment of everything required to complete a construction project. From labor costs and material pricing to timeline projections and contingency planning, a high-quality estimate is as much a strategy document as it is a budget forecast.

M&T Construction’s approach to estimating is built on accuracy, experience, and integrity. Their team of seasoned professionals analyzes architectural drawings, engineering plans, zoning considerations, and market trends to deliver a clear, transparent estimate. Every number is backed by research, every assumption is carefully vetted, and every estimate is tailored to the unique needs of the client.

This level of precision ensures that all stakeholders—from owners to subcontractors—are aligned, reducing misunderstandings, change orders, and budget overruns.

Why Estimating Matters More Than Ever

In today’s fast-moving construction environment, the margin for error is razor thin. Material prices fluctuate, labor availability changes, and regulations vary from one municipality to another. A small error in an early estimate can snowball into delays, unexpected costs, and broken trust with clients.

Accurate estimating matters because:

It Protects the Budget: Knowing what a project will truly cost helps avoid costly surprises.

It Shapes the Schedule: A proper estimate includes labor availability, procurement timelines, and subcontractor input.

It Reduces Risk: The more you know upfront, the fewer unknowns you’ll face during construction.

It Builds Client Trust: A realistic, transparent estimate builds credibility and encourages repeat business.

M&T Construction understands these pressures and has structured its Commercial Estimating services to meet them head-on, helping clients move forward with clarity and peace of mind.

A Local Advantage with Regional Insight

Being based in Mobile, AL gives M&T Construction a unique edge. They understand the regional market—what materials cost, how weather impacts scheduling, which subcontractors are reliable, and how to navigate local codes and permitting.

This localized insight means estimates are more than just spreadsheets—they’re informed by real-world, real-time knowledge. Whether it’s a commercial office space, retail buildout, restaurant renovation, or industrial facility, M&T’s estimating team brings both technical precision and local expertise to every job.

Integrating Technology with Experience

While experience is irreplaceable, M&T Construction also leverages modern technology to ensure every estimate is accurate and efficient. Using digital takeoff software, 3D modeling tools, and cloud-based collaboration platforms, their team can create estimates faster and with greater precision.

This combination of cutting-edge tools and hands-on know-how results in better forecasting, reduced errors, and faster turnarounds—especially valuable when clients are facing tight deadlines or competitive bid situations.

Additionally, M&T provides detailed, professional estimate reports that make it easy for clients to understand the full financial picture. From cost breakdowns to optional value engineering suggestions, clients get the insights they need to move forward with confidence.

From Preconstruction to Project Closeout

M&T’s estimating services are not limited to the early planning stages. Their team remains involved throughout the project lifecycle, continually revisiting and adjusting estimates to reflect actual conditions on the ground. This ongoing engagement ensures that budgets remain on track and that any emerging challenges are addressed proactively.

Clients benefit from:

Real-time Budget Monitoring

Change Order Management

Post-Bid Scope Review

Subcontractor Comparisons

Material Cost Forecasting

This comprehensive, lifecycle-focused estimating approach helps M&T Construction deliver projects that are not only on budget but also aligned with long-term client goals.

Trust Built on Transparency

One of the hallmarks of M&T Construction’s approach is transparency. They don’t pad estimates or leave clients in the dark about assumptions. Instead, they focus on open communication, clear documentation, and honest dialogue.

This honesty builds trust—and that trust translates into long-term relationships with clients across the Gulf Coast and beyond. Developers and business owners know that when they work with M&T, they’re not just getting a contractor—they’re gaining a partner who is deeply invested in their success.

Conclusion: Confidence Starts with M&T Construction

Every great structure begins with a solid plan, and every solid plan begins with a reliable estimate. At M&T Construction, Commercial Estimating services are the foundation upon which successful projects are built.

With local knowledge, industry expertise, and a commitment to accuracy, M&T empowers clients to build with confidence from day one. Whether you're planning a new retail center, renovating a historic property, or expanding a commercial campus, trust M&T Construction to help you plan smart, build right, and grow strong.

[rgnlweb20]

The Ultimate Guide to Using a Contractor Quote Calculator for Accurate Estimates

Time is money, especially in industries like construction and home services. For contractors, knowing how to create precise and straightforward cost estimates can make or break a project. That’s where a contractor quote calculator steps in. These tools simplify the often complex process of pricing services, giving you an edge in providing accurate and professional quotes that clients can trust. For contractors, business owners, and construction companies, tools like these make it easier to stay consistent while saving time, reducing errors, and keeping operations running smoothly.

What is a Contractor Quote Calculator?

A contractor quote calculator is a digital tool designed to simplify and improve the process of estimating costs for construction and home service projects. For contractors, creating accurate estimates is a critical part of the job, as it ensures fair pricing for clients while protecting the company’s profitability. This tool breaks down project costs such as labor, materials, and other expenses into detailed, straightforward figures. By automating key calculations, it saves time, reduces manual errors, and helps contractors provide clearer, more professional quotes.

Core Features of a Contractor Quote Calculator

Contractor quote calculators are packed with features that cater to the practical needs of contractors. Here’s what these tools usually offer and why they’re so crucial for project management:

Automated Estimations: Say goodbye to manual math errors. Automated algorithms calculate total costs based on your input, ensuring consistency and saving time.

Material Cost Tracking: Easily account for fluctuating material costs by inputting prices directly into the tool, which updates your estimate in real-time.

Labor Management: Include crew schedules, hourly rates, or subcontractor fees into your quote, letting you manage workforce expenses with precision.

Tax Calculations: Prevent underestimating project totals by factoring in applicable local taxes. These calculators simplify tax percentages so everything is included upfront.

These features reduce the risk of underquoting or overquoting, which can lead to lost business opportunities or profit margins. By empowering contractors to produce transparent quotes, the tool becomes a valuable asset.

Who Can Benefit From This Tool?

This tool isn't just for large construction companies—its value extends to anyone involved in planning or executing service-based projects. Here's who can truly benefit:

Construction Companies: For businesses managing multiple projects, a quote calculator organizes and standardizes estimating processes, ensuring all bids are competitive and accurate.

Independent Contractors: Operating solo means time is at a premium. Automating the quoting process eliminates guesswork, freeing up time to focus on actual work.

Realtors: Whether coordinating repairs or estimating renovation budgets, accurate quotes keep projects on track and clients happy.

Small Business Owners: Those handling home services, landscaping, or specialty trades can price their services more effectively, building trust with clients.

By streamlining workflows and improving quote accuracy, contractor quote calculators are tools that anyone in the home services or construction industry should consider.

Key Cost Components in Quotations

Creating an accurate contractor quotation means breaking down costs into manageable sections. Understanding and addressing the core components — materials, labor costs, and profit planning — ensures a realistic and competitive quote that works for both contractors and clients. Here's how a contractor quote calculator can help tackle these essential elements with precision.

Materials: From Selection to Costing

The cost of materials is usually the largest and most variable component of a contractor's quotation. Accurately estimating these costs begins with a thorough quantity takeoff. This involves listing everything from lumber to nails based on the project requirements and scope.

Once you know the quantities, the next step is calculating unit costs. This requires you to input up-to-date prices for each item in your contractor quote calculator. For example, using cost resources like Homewyse can provide reliable, localized data on material pricing. By multiplying the quantity times its respective unit cost, you’ll generate a precise material subtotal.

Beyond the raw materials, don’t forget to account for delivery fees or any upfront discounts you receive for bulk purchases. The more detailed your materials breakdown, the fewer surprises you (or your client) will face during the project.

Labor Costs and Burden Calculation

Labor costs often include more than just hourly wages. To get an accurate picture, factor both the baseline labor rate and associated labor burdens such as taxes, insurance, and retirement contributions.

For instance, you can use your contractor quote calculator to input specific roles like carpenters or electricians, adding their hourly rates and projected hours. Include indirect costs like overtime rates or travel time to truly capture what your crew costs in real-world situations.

To optimize labor expenses, consider methods such as:

Scheduling tasks to minimize overtime.

Allocating resources smartly based on skill level.

Giving preference to experienced workers for complex tasks to reduce long-term errors.

Balancing cost efficiency with quality labor ultimately protects your profit margin while ensuring project success.

Profit Margins and Contingency Planning

Every quote must include a profit margin, but the trick is determining one that balances competitiveness and sustainability. Many contractors aim for 10-20%, adjusting slightly based on project size and competition. A contractor quote calculator simplifies this step by auto-adding a set percentage to your estimate, ensuring all projects remain profitable.

However, life happens, and unanticipated expenses may arise — whether from weather delays, supply chain issues, or client-requested changes. That’s where a contingency fund comes into play. Allocate around 5-10% of the total project costs for unforeseen expenses. This ensures you won't take an unnecessary hit to your profits if the unexpected occurs.

By pairing thoughtful profit margins with contingency planning, you'll gain peace of mind while reinforcing client trust. Showing that your quote thoughtfully anticipates and manages risks demonstrates professionalism — a key advantage in the contracting world.

Including these key cost components in your estimates not only builds transparency but solidifies a contractor’s reputation for reliability.

Choosing the Right Software or Tool

Finding the ideal software for contractor quotes can be a game-changer for your business operations. By selecting tools that align with your needs, you save time, improve accuracy, and present professional estimates to clients. But how do you decide which one to use? Here’s a look at some popular options and considerations to help you make an informed choice.

Top Contractor Quote Calculators in the Market

The market is packed with quote calculator options tailored to contractors, each with different strengths. Understanding their features is key to making the right investment. Let’s compare three popular contenders:

Buildbook Buildbook stands out for its simplicity and integration options. Its construction cost calculator is user-friendly, enabling contractors to create detailed quotes on the go. With features like collaboration tools and project tracking, it’s an all-in-one solution for small and large businesses alike.

Homewyse Renowned for its robust cost estimating databases, Homewyse allows contractors to generate quotes based on localized material and labor pricing. It's perfect for those who need up-to-date pricing to ensure competitive yet fair estimates.

Jobber Jobber is optimized for service-based professionals, including small home service businesses. Its quoting and invoicing tools integrate seamlessly with CRM systems, offering full-circle project management, from lead tracking to payment processing.

These tools have unique strengths, from mobile accessibility to advanced analytics, but the right choice depends on your specific needs. Looking for seamless integrations? Jobber might be your pick. Need a data-rich platform? Homewyse could be it. For an overall project management tool, Buildbook is a strong contender.

Mobile Vs. Desktop Solutions

When selecting a contractor quote calculator, think about where and how you plan to use it. Are you always on-site? Or do most of your tasks happen at your desk? Let’s break it down:

Mobile Solutions

Pros: Access quotes anywhere, anytime; ideal for on-the-go contractors. Most apps feature offline modes, allowing you to work at remote job sites.

Cons: Limited screen space can make handling extensive calculations challenging.

Desktop Solutions

Pros: Larger screens and computing power make it easier to run complex calculations and manage multiple files simultaneously. Often suitable for more detailed and administrative tasks.

Cons: No portability can be a challenge for contractors frequently in the field.

The best approach for most contractors? Go hybrid. Many modern tools like Buildxact or STACK offer desktop platforms paired with mobile apps, bringing the best of both worlds together. Choose a platform that syncs seamlessly to ensure no data is left behind when switching devices.

Budget-Friendly Options for Small Contractors

For smaller contractors or startups, investing in software can be a tough decision, especially when balancing costs and functionality. Thankfully, there are reliable options for budget-conscious professionals:

Clear Estimates Designed for small businesses, Clear Estimates is affordable and user-friendly, making it ideal for residential contractors. It simplifies complex tasks such as material costing and labor calculations without steep learning curves.

STACK With a free version available, STACK is a robust tool offering takeoff and estimating capabilities. Perfect for contractors who want to dip their toes into professional estimating without an upfront financial commitment.

Houzz Pro This tool offers flexible pricing plans, starting at an entry-level cost, tailored to smaller businesses. It also features great marketing tools, helping you attract more clients while managing estimate submissions.

When considering budget-friendly tools, don’t overlook the cost of learning and implementation. An affordable tool that’s confusing to use can end up wasting your time—and time is money. Aim for solutions that strike a balance between price and usability, especially if you're operating solo or managing a small team. Looking for tips on maximizing your digital tools? Check out this helpful breakdown.

By considering factors like features, accessibility, and affordability, you’ll be better equipped to choose the contractor quote calculator that fits your business’s unique needs.

Tips for Accurate Quotation Management

Creating an accurate quote is more than punching numbers into a contractor quote calculator. It’s a combination of reliable data, skills, and collaboration. To ensure your quotes are both precise and fair, consider the following tips to strengthen your quotation management process.

Regular Updates and Maintenance

Keeping your contractor quote calculator updated is critical for generating accurate estimations. The costs of materials and labor fluctuate frequently due to market demand, supply chain issues, and seasonal changes. If your calculator relies on outdated input, it can negatively impact your profit margins and client relationships.

Here are some actionable tips:

Monitor Material Costs Regularly: Check local suppliers or industry benchmarks for updates on the cost of raw materials like lumber, concrete, or specialized tools.

Adjust for Labor Rate Changes: Overtime, new hires, or increases in wages should reflect immediately in your calculator's input.

Review Tax and Regulation Updates: Local tax laws or building codes may change, impacting your final quote. Keeping abreast ensures your quotes are compliant and competitive.

Set a calendar reminder to review your calculator’s input monthly—or even weekly during peak project seasons. Accurate inputs keep you ahead of the curve and build credibility with your clients.

Training and Familiarization

Even the best contractor quote calculator won’t be effective if you aren’t fully comfortable using it. Familiarization and proper training allow you and your team to unlock the tool’s full potential.

Here’s where training pays off:

Understand All Features: Quote calculators often have advanced options like profit projections, contingency calculators, and discount settings. Without learning these, you miss out on valuable automation.

Practice Realistic Scenarios: Before using the tool on a client’s project, test it with various scenarios. For example, simulate both small-scale and large-scale projects to see how cost dynamics shift.

Involve the Team: If multiple people are quoting on your behalf, ensure everyone is on the same page. Hold training sessions to discuss best practices and common mistakes.

Time invested in learning the software is time saved in the long run. Avoid guesswork and ensure all team members can consistently provide professional, high-quality quotes.

Collaborating with Clients

Transparency matters. A well-prepared quote accompanied by detailed explanations can significantly boost client trust and project approval rates. Contractors who involve clients in the quoting process stand out as professionals who prioritize partnership.

Steps to improve collaboration include:

Explain Cost Breakdowns: Walk clients through key elements like material costs, labor, and profit margins. When people understand the "why," they’re less likely to push back on price.

Create Editable Drafts: Share draft quotes and invite client feedback before finalizing estimates. This collaborative approach avoids misunderstandings and fosters trust.

Use Professional-Grade Tools: A polished quote, generated by a professional tool, signals competence. Direct clients to tools like this guide to showcase high standards when sharing project details.

Good client communication is more than a courtesy—it’s a strategy that differentiates your business. By keeping your process transparent and inclusive, you increase your chances of securing projects while building long-term client relationships. Use your quote calculator as a bridge between you and your client, making data-backed decisions together.

Conclusion

A contractor quote calculator is more than just a tool—it’s a cornerstone for streamlined operations and professional growth. By integrating such calculators into your workflow, you position your business to save time, enhance accuracy, and foster trust with clients.

Selecting platforms that align with your specific needs can reduce stress and increase efficiency, whether you’re running a small business or managing larger construction projects. Accurate quotes not only improve client relationships but also protect your profits, ensuring sustainable success.

Take the time to explore effective tools tailored for contractors and consider how they can positively impact your bottom line.

[danielimperatrice]

How Project Managers Can Ensure Accurate Estimates

Why Do Projects Fail? (Spoiler: It’s Not Always Because of Poor Execution)

Picture this: you’ve got an amazing project on your hands. The team is pumped, the client is excited, and it looks like everything is going to be perfect. But then, suddenly, things start to go wrong. Costs skyrocket, deadlines stretch, and what was supposed to be a smashing success turns into a total mess. What happened? Sometimes, it’s not the project itself but something much smaller (and more dangerous): bad estimates.

Yep, those little numbers that seem harmless at first can be the reason great projects go down the drain. But don’t worry! In this post, I’m going to show you how to improve your estimates and save your projects before it’s too late.

1. The Power of the Past: Learn from Previous Projects

One of the best ways to start is by looking back. Got similar projects in the past? Awesome! Take a look at how long they took, what the actual costs were, and how you can adjust those figures for the new project. This not only helps you estimate better but also avoids nasty surprises halfway through.

Pro tip: Don’t underestimate what you’ve already done. The mistakes of the past are your best teachers. So, take note of everything that went right... and wrong.

2. Don’t Guess: Consult the Experts

It doesn’t matter if you’re a pro in your field, there’s always someone who knows more than you about a specific task. Got a software project? Talk to your developers. Working on construction? Consult the engineers. These are the people who’ll be knee-deep in the actual work, so their opinions are worth way more than any quick mental math you do on your own.

Warning: If you go solo on estimating, you might end up with deadlines that are way too optimistic... and that only leads to trouble. Make sure you get all the facts before you throw out any numbers.

3. Divide and Conquer: Break the Project into Small Tasks

Here’s a foolproof technique: break the project down into smaller, more manageable tasks. It’s much easier to estimate how long a three-day task will take than an entire three-month project. Plus, you can spot any tricky areas early on.

For example, if you have to "develop an app," that’s super broad. But if you break it down into "UI design," "backend development," "testing," etc., each of those tasks will have a much more accurate estimate, reducing any surprises along the way.

4. Do Some Magic with Three-Point Estimating

Now, let me share a magic trick (okay, it’s more math than magic): use three-point estimating. Essentially, you calculate three scenarios:

Optimistic: Everything goes right, and you finish earlier than expected.

Pessimistic: Everything goes wrong (oops!) and it takes longer than you’d like.

Most likely: What you think will actually happen, with a few hiccups.

Average those numbers, and voila! You’ve got yourself a much more realistic figure.

5. The Villain of the Story: Uncertainty

There will always be things you can’t predict. The weather, a delayed supplier, or the usual unforeseen circumstance no one saw coming. That’s why you need to include a margin of error. If your project is running on razor-thin deadlines or budgets, even a small hiccup can cause the whole thing to fall apart. Make sure you have some wiggle room for these moments.

Pro tip: A 10-20% contingency for both time and budget is often enough to cover most unexpected issues. That way, a minor setback won’t turn into a major crisis.

What Happens When Estimates Are Bad?

If you’ve ever been involved in a project that veered off into chaos, it was probably because of poor estimates. Here are some of the fatal consequences of underestimating (or overestimating) a project:

1. Goodbye Budget, Hello Chaos

When you underestimate costs, the budget evaporates faster than ice cream on a hot day. Not only is this uncomfortable, but it can also lead to the project running out of funds before completion, forcing you to cut corners or, in the worst-case scenario, shut it down entirely.

2. The Clock is Ticking (and You’ll Feel It)

If you miscalculate the time needed, get ready for long nights and weekend work. Deadlines get pushed, and everything gets delayed. This not only frustrates your team but can also hurt your relationship with the client, who’s starting to wonder why that “simple” project isn’t finished yet.

3. Team Burnout

When estimates are too optimistic, your team ends up working under constant pressure. This doesn’t just lower the quality of the work; it can also lead to the dreaded burnout. And when the team’s burned out, the project is bound to suffer.

4. Where Did the Quality Go?

The first thing to get sacrificed when estimates go wrong is quality. If timelines are too tight or resources too scarce, your team will start cutting corners. And while it may seem like a time-saver, those “shortcuts” often come back as bigger problems later.

Conclusion: Estimating Isn’t a Guessing Game!

Estimating isn’t about looking into a crystal ball or throwing out quick numbers. It’s the foundation of your project. If your estimates fail, the whole project can collapse. So, next time you’re starting a project, remember these tips: look at the past, consult the experts, break down tasks, use three-point estimating, and always, always leave room for the unexpected.

Because, at the end of the day, a great project isn’t just about having a great team or a good idea; it’s about getting the estimates right. Don’t leave it to chance!

[theodorevitaleblog]

Maximizing Resource Efficiency Through Effective Budgeting Strategies for Construction Projects with Ted Vitale (New Jersey)

Construction budgeting is an integral component of project planning. Achieved successfully, it helps control expenses, manage cash flow, and minimize interest expense while preventing delays or cost overruns.

Labor costs, including tradespeople and equipment operator fees, are critical in building budgeting. These expenses may be soft or hard, depending on what tasks must be accomplished. Theodore Vitale New Jersey

Cost Estimation

Cost estimation analysis is at the core of any successful construction project. It involves accurately estimating materials, labor, equipment, permits, and other relevant expenses to provide clients with realistic estimates that meet their needs without compromising quality construction. Theodore Vitale

For accurate budget planning, indirect costs that cannot be directly associated with construction should also be factored in. These expenses include transportation costs, administrative fees, temporary structures fees, design, and legal fees - these indirect expenses can dramatically affect overall project costs. Hence, they must be accurately estimated.

As with any business activity, unexpected expenses may pop up randomly. Ted Vitale (New Jersey) stresses that building contingency reserves into your budget can help mitigate such risks and ensure you stay within your financial parameters. This is especially important in construction projects where unexpected events could arise at any stage of development and have severe ramifications for profitability. Theodore Vitale Wall

Tracking and comparing actual project costs with estimates is essential. to create an adequate construction budget. This allows builders to identify deviations from estimates early and take appropriate actions before it's too late. An automated expense tracking system ensures consistent recording while simultaneously reducing human errors.

Resource Allocation

Ted Vitale (New Jersey) emphasizes that effective construction budget management enables project managers to stay within their established budget while mitigating risk and maintaining a competitive advantage. One effective method is developing an in-depth process for estimating costs, monitoring expenses, and mitigating unexpected cost fluctuations.

Budgeting begins with outlining a set of objectives and outlining all necessary resources required to meet them. These could range from people, equipment, and materials - and an accurate cost breakdown with contingency reserves is vital to ensure project goals are reached on schedule.

Attaining realistic project budget goals involves considering various factors, including the scope of work, construction timeline, and external risks. For instance, developing a high-rise building in an overpopulated city may necessitate additional measures for traffic control, noise reduction, and coordination with local authorities - all of which add significantly to total project costs.

Communication and collaboration among project managers, financial teams, stakeholders, and others should be prioritized during the preconstruction planning. Regular meetings, accessible communication platforms, and transparent reporting all play an integral part in creating an environment where issues can be raised quickly and dealt with expeditiously - this helps avoid miscommunication and provides proactive responses for budget-related challenges throughout the lifecycle.

Monitoring & Adjusting the Budget

As margins tighten in the construction industry, operating within budget becomes more important. Failing to meet estimated project costs could result in completed projects yielding no profit and even incurring substantial losses for your company.

According to Ted Vitale (New Jersey), accurately estimating project costs, using technology to streamline project management processes, and fostering effective communication are essential construction budgeting best practices. More about Ted. Furthermore, including a contingency plan to address unexpected expenses is crucial for mitigating financial risk.

Labor expenses represent the bulk of any construction project's overall costs, covering trade subcontractors and laborers. They also include benefits like workers' compensation, vacation time, and sick leave for trade subcontractors and laborers, respectively. Furthermore, installing utilities like water, gas, or electricity may incur extra fees such as permit inspection charges and membership dues from contractors' or builders' associations.

Ted Vitale (New Jersey) specifies that construction projects typically incur indirect and overhead expenses beyond direct costs, such as site office expenses and tools and equipment rental. To accurately estimate these indirect expenses, it is vitally important that companies understand their total cost structure and accounting method and consult other industry experts or contractors for further insight into market conditions or material availability. For instance, if steel is the vital material in your project, it's essential to account for any price spikes during production.

Contingency Planning

Construction companies need contingency plans in place to avoid budget overruns. Unexpected delays or changes to project scope that require additional resources should they arise can put budget overruns at risk, so regular risk analyses and reviews are vital in helping managers create plans in advance that allow for quick responses when unexpected challenges arise without jeopardizing the financial stability of projects.

Conducting a cost analysis can help pinpoint potential cost savings in construction projects by breaking down all components' costs, including materials, labor, equipment, and overhead expenses. Once this information has been compiled, managers can employ resource allocation strategies that maximize efficiency while minimizing spending and saving money.

Ted Vitale (New Jersey) focuses on the fact that contingency plans can also help manage unexpected challenges encountered during construction, such as environmental concerns or structural flaws. These issues can be quickly and effectively addressed by employing strategies such as revising project scopes or reallocating funds from less essential aspects of the project.

Maintaining an effective budgeting system is critical, yet keeping an eye on expenses and project progress requires constant vigilance. Utilizing construction budgeting software with expense monitoring capabilities can ensure projects stay on schedule while decreasing the risks of overspending.

[bluebookestimators]

The Key to Successful Construction Projects: Construction Estimating Services

Introduction

When it comes to embarking on a construction project, whether it's a new home, a commercial building, or a renovation, one of the most critical factors in ensuring success is accurate cost estimation. Construction Estimation Services plays a Vital role in this process. These services are the foundation upon which your project's financial feasibility, scheduling, and overall success are built. In this blog, we will explore the significance of construction estimating services, what they entail, and how they contribute to the successful completion of construction projects.

What Are Construction Estimating Services?

Construction estimating services involve the process of determining the projected cost of a construction project. This involves a detailed analysis of all the components and activities required for the project, including labor, materials, equipment, permits, and any other expenses related to the construction. The purpose is to provide an accurate and comprehensive budget for the project, helping owners, contractors, and other stakeholders make informed decisions.

The Significance of Construction Estimating Services

Budget Planning: Accurate cost estimation is fundamental for creating a realistic budget for your construction project. This budget guides you in determining how much you can afford to spend, which is crucial for securing financing and ensuring the project stays within financial limits.

Project Feasibility: Before breaking ground, it's essential to assess whether the project is financially viable. Construction estimating services help in evaluating whether the expected costs align with the project's goals and expected returns.

Competitive Bidding: For contractors, construction estimating services are indispensable when preparing bids for projects. Accurate estimates enable contractors to submit competitive and realistic proposals, increasing the chances of winning contracts.

Resource Allocation: Proper cost estimation helps in allocating resources effectively. It ensures that you have the right amount of materials, labor, and equipment available when needed, minimizing project delays.

Risk Management: By identifying potential cost overruns early in the planning stage, you can implement strategies to mitigate these risks, such as selecting alternative materials or construction methods.

The Process of Construction Estimating

Construction estimating services involve a series of steps to arrive at an accurate cost projection. These steps typically include:

Project Scope Analysis: Understanding the project's scope, including its size, complexity, and specific requirements, is the first step in the estimation process.

Quantity Takeoff: Estimators calculate the quantities of materials, labor hours, and equipment needed for each task in the project based on the project's blueprints and specifications.

Cost Estimation: The estimator assigns costs to each item in the quantity takeoff, considering market prices, labor rates, and any other relevant factors. This step may include factoring in overhead and profit margins.

Contingency and Risk Analysis: Estimators include contingency funds to account for unforeseen circumstances or changes in project scope. They also assess and analyze potential risks that could affect the project's budget.

Final Estimate: All the calculated costs are summed up to provide the final estimated budget for the project. This amount serves as a reference point throughout the construction process.

Technological Advancements in Estimating Services

Advancements in technology have greatly improved the accuracy and efficiency of construction estimating services. The use of software and Building Information Modeling (BIM) tools enables estimators to generate more precise estimates, manage data more efficiently, and reduce the margin for error.

Benefits of modern construction estimating tools include:

Real-time updates and adjustments to estimates as project details change.

Improved collaboration among project stakeholders through cloud-based platforms.

Better visualization of project components and costs through 3D modeling.

Enhanced accuracy through automated takeoff and cost calculations.

Conclusion

Construction estimating services are the linchpin of any successful construction project. By providing accurate and detailed cost projections, these services offer a roadmap for project owners, contractors, and other stakeholders to make informed decisions, plan effectively, and ensure the project's financial feasibility. With the aid of technology, estimating services have evolved to become more accurate and efficient, further contributing to the success of construction projects. Whether you're planning a small renovation or a large-scale commercial development, enlisting the help of professional construction estimating services is a wise investment that can save you time, money, and stress in the long run.

[nerdyqueerandjewish]

Here is what Researcher Jeremy C. Young wrote on twitter to help put the numbers discussed in the report from Imperial College into context. Fair warning, he does use the number of deaths in the Shoah (and other events) to help people understand the magnitude, I don’t think he’s trying to make a direct comparison and I don’t think that’s the best choice, but I’m still sharing because I think that the information is really valuable.

⚠️ Read with extreme caution ⚠️

————

Summary from Jeremy C. Young:

———

We can now read the report on COVID-19 that so terrified every public health manager and head of state from Boris Johnson to Donald Trump to the dictator of El Salvador that they ordered people to stay in their houses. I read it yesterday afternoon and haven't been the same since. I urge everyone to read it, but maybe have a drink first, or have your family around you. It is absolutely terrifying. The New York TImes confirms that the CDC and global leaders are treating it as factual.

Here's a brief rundown of what I'm seeing in here. Please correct me in comments if I'm wrong.

The COVID-19 response team at Imperial College in London obtained what appears to be the first accurate dataset of infection and death rates from China, Korea, and Italy. They plugged those numbers into widely available epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation: what would happen if the United States did absolutely nothing -- if we treated COVID-19 like the flu, went about business as usual, and let the virus take its course?

Here's what would happen: 80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself.

It gets worse. Most people who are in danger of dying from COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those put on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number of ventilators in the United States. Virtually no one who needed a ventilator would get one. 100% of patients who need ventilators would die if they didn't get one. So the actual death toll from the virus would be closer to 4 million Americans -- in a span of 3 months. 8-15% of all Americans over 70 would die.

How many people is 4 million Americans? It's more Americans than have died all at once from anything, ever. It's the population of Los Angeles. It's four times the number of Americans who died in the Civil War...on both sides combined. It's two-thirds as many people as died in the Holocaust.

Americans make up 4.4% of the world's population. So if we simply extrapolate these numbers to the rest of the world -- now we're getting into really fuzzy estimates, so the margin of error is pretty great here -- this gives us 90 million deaths globally from COVID-19. That's 15 Holocausts. That's 1.5 times as many people as died in World War II, over 12 years. This would take 3-6 months.

Now, it's unrealistic to assume that countries wouldn't do ANYTHING to fight the virus once people stopped dying. So the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, this time assuming a "mitigation" strategy. A mitigation strategy is pretty much what common sense would tell us to do: America places all symptomatic cases of the disease in isolation. It quarantines their families for 14 days. It orders all Americans over 70 to practice social distancing. This is what you've seen a lot of people talking about when they say we should "flatten the curve": try to slow the spread of the disease to the people most likely to die from it, to avoid overwhelming hospitals.

And it does flatten the curve -- but not nearly enough. The death rate from the disease is cut in half, but it still kills 1.1 million Americans all by itself. The peak need for ventilators falls by two-thirds, but it still exceeds the number of ventilators in the US by eight times, meaning most people who need ventilators still don't get them. That leaves the actual death toll in the US at right around 2 million deaths. The population of Houston. Two civil wars. One-third of the Holocaust. Globally, 45 million people die: 7.5 Holocausts, 3/4 of World War II. That's what happens if we use common sense: the worst death toll from a single cause since the Middle Ages.

Finally, the Imperial College team ran the numbers a third time, this time assuming a "suppression" strategy. In addition to isolating symptomatic cases and quarantining their family members, they also simulated social distancing for the entire population. All public gatherings and most workplaces shut down. Schools and universities close. (Note that these simulations assumed a realistic rate of adherence to these requirements, around 70-75% adherence, not that everyone follows them perfectly.) This is basically what we are seeing happen in the United States today.

This time it works! The death rate in the US peaks three weeks from now at a few thousand deaths, then goes down. We hit, but don't exceed (at least not by very much), the number of available ventilators. The nightmarish death tolls from the rest of the study disappear; COVID-19 goes down in the books as a bad flu instead of the Black Death.

But here's the catch: if we EVER relax these requirements before a vaccine is administered to the entire population, COVID-19 comes right back and kills millions of Americans in a few months, the same as before. The simulation does indicate that, after the first suppression period (lasting from now until July), we could probably lift restrictions for a month, followed by two more months of suppression, in a repeating pattern without triggering an outbreak or overwhelming the ventilator supply. If we staggered these suppression breaks based on local conditions, we might be able to do a bit better. But we simply cannot ever allow the virus to spread throughout the entire population in the way other viruses do, because it is just too deadly. If lots of people we know end up getting COVID-19, it means millions of Americans are dying. It simply can't be allowed to happen.

How quickly will a vaccine be here? Already, medical ethics have been pushed to the limit to deliver one. COVID-19 was first discovered a few months ago. Last week, three separate research teams announced they had developed vaccines. Yesterday, one of them (with FDA approval) injected its vaccine into a live person, without waiting for animal testing. Now, though, they have to monitor the test subject for fourteen months to make sure the vaccine is safe. This is the part of the testing that can't be rushed: the plan is to inoculate the entire human population, so if the vaccine itself turned out to be lethal for some reason, it could potentially kill all humans, which is a lot worse than 90 million deaths. Assuming the vaccine is safe and effective, it will still take several months to produce enough to inoculate the global population. For this reason, the Imperial College team estimated it will be about 18 months until the vaccine is available.

During those 18 months, things are going to be very difficult and very scary. Our economy and our society will be disrupted in profound ways. Worst of all, if the suppression policies actually work, it will feel like we are doing all this for nothing, because the infection and death rates will be very low. It's easy to get people to come together in common sacrifice in the middle of a war. It's very hard to get them to do so in a pandemic that looks invisible precisely because suppression methods are working. But that's exactly what we're going to have to do.

[fashionbusinessclub]

Small Business Owners: Accounting Is for Profit Planning, Not Just Tax Preparation

An individual may be led to think that benefit is your principal objective in an business in reality it's the cash flowing in and out of a firm which will keep the doors shut. The idea of profit is marginally sparse and just discusses income and expenses in a certain time. Cashflow, alternatively, is significantly more lively in the sense it is worried about the movement of money and from a organization. It's worried about the period in the movement of this currency occurs. Profits don't coincide with their associated cash inflows and out flows. The internet effect is that cash receipts regularly lag cash payments although profits could be mentioned, the company could experience a shortterm cash deficit. Because of this, it's vital to predict cash flows in addition to project possible profits. In such terms, it's crucial that you learn just how to convert your accrual profit for a own cash flow profit. You have in order to keep up enough cash readily available to conduct your business, however maybe perhaps not too long regarding sacrifice potential earnings from some different applications.

Why bookkeeping is required

Help One to function much better as a Company Owner

Make Reliable conclusions Know when to employ a group of employees Know just how to price your services and products Know just how to tag your expenditure items Helps one to figure out whether to enlarge or perhaps maybe not Helps with surgeries estimated costs Stop Fraud and Theft Control the most significant problem is internal thieving Reconcile your novels and inventory management of gear Raising Capital (allow you to to spell out financials to stakeholders) Loans Investors What will be the Best Practices in Accounting for Small Businesses to tackle your ordinary'pain points'? Hire or talk CPA or accountant What may be the simplest strategy and how frequently to get What do you have within my own industry? Identify what exactly is my prime purpose? Can the accountant gauge the total price of my small enterprise Can I help me grow my business with profit preparation methods How do you help me prepare for tax season What are several unique considerations for my specific industry?

To succeed, your company has to be profitable. Your entire organization goals down down to the simple fact. However turning a profit now is simpler said than done. As a way to enhance your bottom line, you want to understand what's going on financially at all times. Additionally you ought to get focused on understanding and tracking that your KPIs. What will be the Frequent Profitability Metrics to Track Running a Business -- crucial performance indicators (KPI)

Whether You Choose to employ a specialist or perform it yourself, then there are some metrics That You Ought to certainly have to keep tabs at all times:

Outstanding Accounts Payable: Outstanding accounts receivable (A/P) shows the total amount of cash you now owe to your providers. Average Cash Burn Average cash burn off up is the pace of which your organization' cash balance is going down on average each month over a specified time period. A negative burn is a good sign because it indicates your business is generating cash and growing its cash reserves. Cash Runaway: If your business is operating at a loss, cash runway helps you estimate how many months you can continue before your business exhausts its cash reserves. Similar to your cash burn, a negative runway is a good sign that your business is growing its cash reserves. Gross Margin: Gross margin is a percentage that demonstrates the total revenue of your business after subtracting the costs associated with creating and selling your business' services and products. It's actually really just a helpful metric to spot the way your earnings contrasts to some prices, and letting you make changes so. Customer Acquisition Cost: By focusing on just how much you really may spend on moderate to obtain a brand new customer, you also can tell just how many clients you want to create a profit. Customer Lifetime Value: You will want to understand your LTV therefore you are able to predict your prospective earnings and gauge the entire number of clients you want to cultivate your profits. Break-Even Point:How do I want to create sales for the own company to generate a profit?Knowing this number will reveal to you the thing you want to accomplish in order to develop a profit (e.g., gain more clients, increase prices, or lesser operating expenses). Net Profit: This really is the one most important number you want to understand for your own organization for a financial achievement. If you're not earning a profit, then your employer isn't likely to survive for longterm. Total earnings contrast with past year/last month. By assessing and tracking your entire revenues with time, you're going to have the ability to get sound business decisions and establish better financial targets. Average revenue per employee. It is vital that you know that this number so you may set realistic growth targets and comprehend strategies to enhance your business processes. The next checklist lays a recommended time line to look after the bookkeeping purposes that could keep you conducive to the operations of your enterprise and enhance your tax preparation. The accuracy and timeliness of those amounts entered will impact the important performance indicators that drive business decisions which will need to be manufactured, on the regular, monthly and yearly basis prior to profits. Daily Accounting Tasks

Review your everyday Cash flow posture therefore that you never'grow broke'. Since cash may be your fuel for the small enterprise, you can't wish to be running close vacant. Start every day by assessing how much cash you've got available. Weekly Accounting Tasks

2. Record Transactions

Record each trade (charging clients, receiving cash out of clients, paying vendors, etc.) at the correct account weekly or daily, based upon volume. Even though recording trades by hand or at Excel sheets is okay, it's most likely simpler to make utilize of accounting applications such as QuickBooks. The huge advantages and control far outweigh the price tag.

3. Document and File Receipts

Keep copies of invoices delivered, all cash receipts (cash, credit and check card deposits) and all of cash payments (cash, check, credit card bills, etc.).

Start a vendors document, sorted alphabetically, (Sears under"S", CVS under"C,"etc.) to get simple access. Create a citizenship document sorted by citizenship date as well as also a bank announcement document sorted by month. A frequent habit would be to throw all newspaper receipts to a carton and attempt to decode them in tax time, however if you don't get a tiny level of trades, it's much far better to have different files for various receipts kept organized while they arrive in. Many bookkeeping applications systems Allow You to scan paper receipts and also prevent physical documents entirely

4. Review Unpaid Bills from Vendors

Every firm must have an"unpaid vendors" folder. Maintain a listing of every one of your vendors which features charging dates, numbers due and payment deadline. If vendors give discounts for early payment, then you might need to make the most of the when you've got the bucks available.

5. Pay Vendors, Sign Checks

Track your account receivable and also possess capital allowed to pay for your suppliers promptly to prevent any late penalties and maintain positive relationships together. If you can give payment dates on net 60 or net 90, the higher. If you create payments on the internet or drop a check in the mail, maintain copies of bills sent and sent using accounting program.

6. Get and Send Invoices

Make sure you include payment stipulations. Most statements are due over 1 month, called"Net 30" in the end of your invoice. With no date, you'll have more difficulty forecasting earnings for your month. To be certain that to get paid in time, consistently use a statement form which comprises the ideal details like repayment conditions, itemized charges, and also your payment speech.

7. Review Projected Cash Flow

Managing your money flow is crucial, particularly in the very first year of one's small business enterprise. Forecasting just how much cash you're going to need while within the forthcoming weeks/months may assist you to book enough capital to pay for invoices, for example your own employees and providers. Besides, you may create more informed business decisions concerning how to pay it.

All you have to is just a very simple invoice revealing your overall income position, expected cash receipts throughout the future week/month and expected cash payments throughout the future week/month.

8. Executive Dashboard (weekly review)

This dash provides you a'snapshot' of one's surgeries on a weekly basis.

It include of Cash on Hand, Cash burn , Account Receivables, Accounts Payable, Items sold, Inventory on Hand, inventory turns, out standing problems in the company, and gross profit margin, new sales drops, customer reductions, customer support functionality, ontime shipping speed and product quality overall effectiveness.

Monthly Accounting Tasks

9. Balance Your Business Checkbook

As you get back together your own personal checking accounts, you want to be aware your money trade entries are true every month and then that you're dealing together with the suitable cash standing. Reconciling your hard earned money makes it a lot much easier to detect and fix some errors or omissions-by you personally or by the bank-in moment to improve them.

10. Review Past-Due ("Aged") Receivables

Make sure you incorporate an"aging" pillar to different"open invoices" with all the amount of days a bill is delinquent. This provides you an instant view of customer payments that are outstanding. The start of the month can be really just actually a fantastic time to ship overdue reminder announcements to clients, customers and someone else that owes you more money.

By the conclusion of your financial year, You'll Be looking at this accounts to Figure out what receivables you Will Have to ship to collections or compose away to get a deduction

1-1. Analyze Inventory Status

For those who have stock, then place aside time for you to re order products which sell fast and identify the others which are moving slowly and might need to be discounted down or down, fundamentally, composed. By assessing regularly (and comparing to earlier weeks' amounts ), it's simpler to make alterations therefore you're neither short nor over loaded.

1 2. Process-or Review Payroll and Approve Tax Payments

Despite the fact that you've got a proven program to pay for your employees (usually semimonthly ), then you want to meet with payroll tax conditions based on national, state and regional legislation at several times, therefore make sure you subtract, deposit and report the applicable tax, social security, Medicare and handicap taxation into the proper agencies on the necessary dates.

Review the payroll outline before payments have been disbursed in order to avoid needing to get corrections throughout the upcoming payroll period. A payroll company may perform all of this to help save time and ensure accuracy in a fair price.

1 3. Review Actual Profit and Loss Circuit Budget and Prior Years

Monthly, take some opportunity to reassess your budgeted expenses and compare these with that which you have ever spent. Are you currently really paying or below budget? Go over the variances and do it as desired

Your profit and loss statement (also referred to as an income statement), either to the present month and year so far, informs you just how much you've got and how much you're spent. Quantify it from the allowance monthly (or quarter). Assessing your actual amounts to your intended amounts high lights at which you might well be spending too much or inadequate, so you are able to make changes.

When you haven't prepared a budget, then compare your present yeartodate P&L with precisely exactly the exact identical prior-period yeartodate P&L to recognize variances and make alterations.

14. Review Month-End Balance Sheet vs. Prior Period

By assessing your balance sheet in one date-June 30, 2015, for example-to a balance sheet by a previous date (December 31, 2014), you obtain a photo of the way you're managing assets and obligations. The crucial thing is to start looking for that which exactly is considerably down or up and comprehend the reason why. By way of instance, if your balances prices up, can it be thanks to raised recent earnings or due to payments from clients?

Quarterly Accounting Tasks

1-5. Prepare/Review Revised Annual P&L Estimate

It is the right time to appraise just how much money you're actually earning, if your assets are moving down or up, the gap between earnings and expenses, which triggered those changes, the method that you're spending money, in addition to pinpointing problem areas, and making alterations to improve margins and sales.

16. Review Quarterly Payroll Reports and Make Payments

You've now already been reviewing your semi monthly deductions accounts. Nevertheless, both the IRS and many countries require annual Revenue accounts and some other residual quarterly obligations. Again, it's better if your payroll supplier completes those files and reports . Your work is to examine to make certain they look fair.

17. Inspection Sales Tax and Make Quarterly Payments

If your organization works at a country which requires sales tax, then be sure to comply with prevent significant penalties. Even the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) will help you decide a state tax duties.

18. Compute Estimated Income Tax and Make Payment

The IRS and countries which have income taxation ask that you pay for estimated taxes. Review your yeartodate P&L to determine whether your debt any projected taxes for this quarter. Your tax accountant will assist if needed.

Annual Accounting Tasks

1 9. Review Past-Due Receivables

Now it is the right time to assess substantial overdue receivables and choose whether you think clients will gradually cover, whether to ship delinquent invoices to a collection service or if to publish off them to get a deduction.

20. Review Your Inventory

Review your existing inventory to find out the worth of items not available. Any writedown of inventory equates to some deduction in your own year old taxes. If you don't writedown un-sellable stock, then you're overstating your inventory balance and paying for additional taxation you don't owe.

2 1. Fill in IRS Forms W-2 and 1099misc

The IRS includes a January 31 deadline which expects one to record that on the yearly earnings of one's fulltime employees (W-2s) & most independent builders (1099s). This deadline incorporates mailing copies of these tax forms to those men and women who worked for you personally. Observe: A 1099 form isn't essential for any builders that got less than 600. Look at saving time and preventing mistakes by having an e filing support.

2-2. Review full-year fiscal reports for tax coverage

Get coordinated Collect and save important records (use programs and calendars for assistance ) Create email folders to save bank receipts and statement Store contracts and contracts Track kilometers and auto expenditures Store all essential records for the organization type.

Tax Preparation Tax preparation can be an early perspective and perhaps not an gain preparation event Capture all applicable occasions Identify all of deduction types Capture all meals Meetings --anything had been discussed/calendar Try never to discuss industry average industry cost for food.

[asestimationsconsultants]

How Accurate Is a Construction Cost Estimating Service?

Accuracy in construction cost estimating can mean the difference between a well-managed project and one plagued by budget overruns. For developers, contractors, and homeowners, relying on a professional construction cost estimating service is a key step toward financial predictability. But how accurate are these estimates, and what factors influence their precision?

Understanding the Nature of Estimates

First, it’s important to clarify that estimates are not final costs—they are projections based on available data, current pricing, and anticipated conditions. A professional construction cost estimating service provides a highly detailed breakdown using industry-standard methods, digital tools, and historical data. While no estimate is 100% precise, the best services often fall within 5% to 10% of the final project cost.

Factors That Affect Accuracy

The accuracy of an estimate depends on several factors:

Design Completeness: If architectural and engineering plans are incomplete, the estimator must make assumptions, increasing the margin of error.

Site Information: Geotechnical data, site access, and environmental issues influence costs. Limited site details can reduce estimate accuracy.

Scope Clarity: Vague or changing scopes create uncertainty. Clear specifications lead to better estimates.

Market Conditions: Material prices and labor rates fluctuate. Estimators use real-time databases and supplier quotes to stay current, but unexpected inflation or shortages can still affect actual costs.

Experience and Tools: Seasoned estimators using advanced estimating software are more likely to deliver accurate results, as they can account for nuances and project-specific complexities.

Types of Estimates and Their Accuracy Levels

There are different classes of estimates used at various stages of a project:

Preliminary Estimate (Conceptual Stage): Accuracy range of ±20% to 30%

Budget Estimate (Schematic Design Stage): Accuracy range of ±15% to 20%

Detailed Estimate (Final Design Stage): Accuracy range of ±5% to 10%

The closer a project is to construction-ready, the more accurate the estimate becomes. A construction cost estimating service will always indicate the level of confidence and contingencies included in their projections.

Role of Contingencies

Accurate estimates often include a contingency—a percentage added to the base estimate to account for unknown risks or changes. A good estimator uses historical data and risk analysis to set the appropriate contingency level, improving the practical accuracy of the final number.

Ongoing Adjustments for Accuracy

Professional estimating services also offer estimate updates as the design evolves. These revisions improve precision and help clients maintain control over costs as more information becomes available.

Conclusion

While no estimate can predict every variable, a construction cost estimating service provides a highly accurate foundation for budgeting and decision-making. With detailed data, risk management, and experience, estimators offer realistic financial projections that clients can trust to guide their projects from concept to completion.

[erin-hart]

“We can now read the report on COVID-19 that terrified every head of state from Boris Johnson to Donald Trump to the dictator of El Salvador so much that they ordered people to stay in their houses after lax attitudes in the beginning.

Here's a brief rundown...

The COVID-19 response team at Imperial College in London obtained what appears to be the first accurate dataset of infection and death rates from China, Korea, and Italy. They plugged those numbers into widely available epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation: what would happen if the United States did absolutely nothing -- if we treated COVID-19 like the flu, went about business as usual, and let the virus take its course?

Here's what would happen: 80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself.

It gets worse. Most people who are in danger of dying from COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those put on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number of ventilators in the United States. Virtually no one who needed a ventilator would get one. 100% of patients who need ventilators would die if they didn't get one. So the actual death toll from the virus would be closer to 4 million Americans -- in a span of 3 months. 8-15% of all Americans over 70 would die.

How many people is 4 million Americans? It's more Americans than have died all at once from anything, ever. It's the population of Los Angeles. It's four times the number of Americans who died in the Civil War...on both sides combined. It's two-thirds as many people as died in the Holocaust.

Americans make up 4.4% of the world's population. So if we simply extrapolate these numbers to the rest of the world -- now we're getting into really fuzzy estimates, so the margin of error is pretty great here -- this gives us 90 million deaths globally from COVID-19. That's 15 Holocausts. That's 1.5 times as many people as died in World War II, over 12 years. This would take 3-6 months.

Now, it's unrealistic to assume that countries wouldn't do ANYTHING to fight the virus once people started dying. So the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, this time assuming a "mitigation" strategy. A mitigation strategy is pretty much what common sense would tell us to do: America places all symptomatic cases of the disease in isolation. It quarantines their families for 14 days. It orders all Americans over 70 to practice social distancing. This is what you've seen a lot of people talking about when they say we should "flatten the curve": try to slow the spread of the disease to the people most likely to die from it, to avoid overwhelming hospitals.

And it does flatten the curve -- but not nearly enough. The death rate from the disease is cut in half, but it still kills 1.1 million Americans all by itself. The peak need for ventilators falls by two-thirds, but it still exceeds the number of ventilators in the US by eight times, meaning most people who need ventilators still don't get them. That leaves the actual death toll in the US at right around 2 million deaths. The population of Houston. Two civil wars. One-third of the Holocaust. Globally, 45 million people die: 7.5 Holocausts, 3/4 of World War II. That's what happens if we use common sense: the worst death toll from a single cause since the Middle Ages.

Finally, the Imperial College team ran the numbers a third time, this time assuming a "suppression" strategy. In addition to isolating symptomatic cases and quarantining their family members, they also simulated social distancing for the entire population. All public gatherings and most workplaces shut down. Schools and universities close. (Note that these simulations assumed a realistic rate of adherence to these requirements, around 70-75% adherence, not that everyone follows them perfectly.) This is basically what we are seeing happen in the United States today.

This time it works! The death rate in the US peaks three weeks from now at a few thousand deaths, then goes down. We hit, but don't exceed (at least not by very much), the number of available ventilators. The nightmarish death tolls from the rest of the study disappear; COVID-19 goes down in the books as a bad flu instead of the Black Death.

But here's the catch: if we EVER relax these requirements before a vaccine is administered to the entire population, COVID-19 comes right back and kills millions of Americans in a few months, the same as before. The simulation does indicate that, after the first suppression period (lasting from now until July), we could probably lift restrictions for a month, followed by two more months of suppression, in a repeating pattern without triggering an outbreak or overwhelming the ventilator supply. If we staggered these suppression breaks based on local conditions, we might be able to do a bit better. But we simply cannot ever allow the virus to spread throughout the entire population in the way other viruses do, because it is just too deadly. If lots of people we know end up getting COVID-19, it means millions of Americans are dying. It simply can't be allowed to happen.

How quickly will a vaccine be here? Already, medical ethics have been pushed to the limit to deliver one. COVID-19 was first discovered a few months ago. Last week, three separate research teams announced they had developed vaccines. Yesterday, one of them (with FDA approval) injected its vaccine into a live person, without waiting for animal testing. Now, though, they have to monitor the test subject for fourteen months to make sure the vaccine is safe. This is the part of the testing that can't be rushed: the plan is to inoculate the entire human population, so if the vaccine itself turned out to be lethal for some reason, it could potentially kill all humans, which is a lot worse than 90 million deaths. Assuming the vaccine is safe and effective, it will still take several months to produce enough to inoculate the global population. For this reason, the Imperial College team estimated it will be about 18 months until the vaccine is available.

During those 18 months, things are going to be very difficult and very scary. Our economy and our society will be disrupted in profound ways. Worst of all, if the suppression policies actually work, it will feel like we are doing all this for nothing, because the infection and death rates will be very low. It's easy to get people to come together in common sacrifice in the middle of a war. It's very hard to get them to do so in a pandemic that looks invisible precisely because suppression methods are working. But that's exactly what we're going to have to do.”

The entire report is below...

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

[conza]

The Political Significance of Equilibrium

Let us now briefly examine the analytical and political significance of equilibrium economics. As we shall see, our realist approach underscores precisely the views Mises held on the role of equilibrium in economic science.

First, let us recall that equilibrium analyses do not give more or less accurate pictures of reality. If this were their purpose, they would not be relevant to our understanding of the world. They are relevant because they enable us to understand our world through comparisons with the counterfactual, and because the counterfactual is implied in the choice under consideration. All human undertakings contain both success and failure as possibilities. Equilibrium analysis not only encompasses both the possibility of success and of failure, but consists of a comparison of the two.

Second, equilibrium analysis is only a part of economic science, and there-fore must not be equated with it. One can discuss most issues of relevance to economic theory and policy on grounds other than those of equilibrium analysis. Virtually all issues relating to monetary theory and policy, for instance, can be discussed by reference to the nature of money, and inflationary schemes can be rebutted by pointing out, in various contexts, that more paper money does not increase factors of production. Or, socialism can be criticized for lacking the possibility of monetary calculation (that is, independent of the question of whether monetary calculation always brings about equilibrium). The very existence of such other fields of analysis proves that equilibrium analysis is just one part of economic science.

What, then, is the specific task of equilibrium analysis? It is limited to—and necessary for—the determination of income streams on the unhampered market. Here it performs two important tasks. On the one hand, it enables us to determine the relative height of wages and interest. Without the notion of equilibrium, we would know only that and why labor services command a price on the market, and that and why rents paid for unit services of land and capital represent interest on the present value of these goods. Yet only equilibrium analysis shows us, for example, that interest must be uniform throughout the economy, or that wages correspond to the discounted marginal value product of labor services. On the other hand, equilibrium analysis enables us to distinguish a third kind of income, namely profit and loss. It shows that profit and loss represent a residual income, and that this income springs from error. These are the main theoretical propositions of this branch of economic inquiry.

The politically relevant implications that one can derive from equilibrium analysis concern schemes for income redistribution. Demonstrating the residual character of profits and losses, for instance, can be used to vindicate just such income. It is obvious that the entrepreneur who makes profits must not be blamed for low wages, for, without him, wages would be even lower. His profits spring from omissions of other entrepreneurs who could have realized higher incomes by bidding underpaid labor away from him.

Moreover, because profits and losses are the result of error, they cannot be “abolished” by government intervention. Irrespective of who controls the means of production—be it a central planning administration or private property owners—one cannot deny that they commit errors. Government interference may provide for a redistribution of profits and losses different from what would have been occurred on the free market. Burdening the taxpayers, government may help incapable entrepreneurs who otherwise would have had to pay for losses out of their own pockets. However, no government (or anybody else) can create schemes that preclude error, which is a fundamental feature of human nature.13

Many economists believe that equilibrium analysis not only serves to evaluate schemes for income redistribution but to evaluate institutional set-tings in efficiency terms. The idea underlying this view is that some institutions might be more able than others to bring about equilibrium. The former institutions are then said to be more efficient, the latter less so. Because the conditions of action determine success and failure—so the reasoning goes—the task of the economist is to identify the set of conditions that creates the best outcome, thus making the world safe for success and efficiency. This view has already been severely challenged.14 Indeed, there are two decisive criticisms.

First, to act successfully means to act successfully under given conditions. Success is not an absolute detached from the environment of action. It is relative. Successful actions are those best suited to present and future conditions, whatever these conditions are. From this, it follows that equilibrium can exist under any institutional setting.15 Equilibrium can exist in an individualist as well as a totalitarian society. By modifying the institutional setting in which human action takes place, one does not increase efficiency but the terms in which it is gauged. Thus, if an accountant spends his time watering his boss’s flowers instead of doing his job, this might be highly efficient in a totalitarian system, but would be a waste of time in a free market. Watering the flowers in the first case, and abstaining from doing so in the latter, he could be said to act successfully in both cases. In this context, it can hardly be overemphasized that Mises’s economic calculation argument, which claimed that socialism lacked the indispensable tool for a rational allocation of resources (namely, market prices), and which brought about the comparative evaluation of economic systems, was not cast in equilibrium terms. Mises argued that socialism lacked something present in capitalism, something indispensable to the allocation of resources. He did not argue that capitalism was more likely to reach equilibrium.

The profession did not choose to follow Mises, however, but pursued the efficient-outcome path to its logical dead end. Many economists will probably be unsatisfied with the way we presented equilibrium analysis, namely, as dealing with individual success and error. However, the comparative advantages of this approach are too obvious to be overlooked. It is both logically impeccable and meaningful to speak of individual success and error in any concrete historical setting. By contrast, it is not meaningful to speak of the “success” or the “efficiency of the system,” since success and failure are categories of action, and action is always individual action.

It is meaningless to ascribe individualistic terms to some aggregate entity. There is, for instance, no such thing as an absolute scale of values by which economic progress or regress of society can be gauged. To perform economic calculations, we must compute market exchange rates (prices). Yet, this presupposes two owners who have different views about the good, lest no exchange would take place and no exchange rate could be established. How, then, could one possibly estimate the value of a single good from one point of view (the point of view of “society as a whole”)? Indeed, this is entirely impossible.

Moreover, when it comes to money prices, what entrepreneurs calculate is the profitability of possible investments. These calculations serve to compare these investments with one another to identify the best course of action. No other meaningful use can be made of market prices.16

The second criticism of the attempt to apply equilibrium analysis to institutional settings in efficiency terms focuses on the consequentialism of this approach: the attempt to identify the institutional setting that brings about equilibrium presupposes that success and failure are consequences of the conditions of action.

This fallacy is strikingly present in all claims that equilibrium is omnipresent (which, politically, implies an economic justification of the status quo). Many modern economists, for whatever reason, have failed to notice that equilibrium analysis is essentially a comparative study, and that encountering economic error is an integral part of it. Instead, they have focused on the success-side of such analysis and interpreted it as a more or less faithful picture of the world. In their eyes, the more reality conforms or tends to conform to equilibrium, the more meaningful equilibrium analysis becomes.

As a consequence of this misapprehension, many economists tend to regard error as merely a disturbing feature of reality. They believe that the existence of error reduces the importance of equilibrium analysis. Therefore, they try to demonstrate that error is a minor phenomenon, and explain why this is so. All such attempts fail, and necessarily must, because one cannot explain in a general way why error comes about. All who assume this line of reasoning fall prey to the consequentialist fallacy.

One can divide the various consequentialist views on equilibrium analysis according to the conditions from which equilibrium allegedly must follow. The most widespread assumption is that equilibrium ensues whenever conditions do not change any more.17 Marshall assumes that equilibrium results when changes are sufficiently quick or sufficiently slow enough not to affect analysis (see 1920, p. 307), or when market participants can recontract (see p. 335). Other authors consider equilibrium the consequence of market participants enjoying rational expectations (see, for example, Miller 1984), or of error being negligible (see Walras 1988, pp. 11, 110; Edgeworth 1961, p. 12). Still others believe equilibrium characterizes a world lacking entrepreneurial activity (see Wicksell 1934; Schumpeter 1911); one that does not generate messages that cause agents to change their views and ideals (see Hahn 1973, p. 25); or one without market prices, which operate as road signs toward success.18 A more recent instance of consequentialism in equilibrium analysis is the argument that markets dominated by big players will provide less reliable expectations (see Butos and Koppl 1993, pp. 302ff.).19

— Jorg Guido Hulsmann, A Realist Approach to Equilibrium Analysis

[80srockher]

Yuri on Ice Re-Watch and Live Commentary, Episode 12: Final Skate: Gotta Super-Super-Supercharge It!!! Grand Prix Final Free Skate

It.  Is.  FINISHED.

You know that feeling when a fan-nish project is projected to take only a few weeks, during the Summer, mind you, but ends up spanning, oh, about three months?  I do, now.

**Begin rant** 

Me, too, Vitya!  End what, Yuri??

I mean, it's more than a little crazy that he thought this is something Victor would be relieved to here.  It's as if they have been existing on different planes of reality.

Listen. Victor has shed tears a grand total of two times in 12 episodes and both incidents involved Yuri.  Yet Yuri still doesn't think he’s important enough to merit more of his Victor’s time away from skating.  Just.  YURI. AUGH!!!

The actor's decision to read this line as if Yuri's revelation has not stabbed Victor in the heart is masterful.  There's only so much pretending the man is capable of.

This is hella relatable as someone who also doesn't want to be touched when I'm upset by THE VERY PERSON WHO UPSET ME.  Give him a minute to process this, Yuri.

This is just a horrible, horrible cap.  Vitya is thoroughly in kicked-puppy-mode.

Um, did you ignore absolutely everything else that occurred afterwards?  Including when he straight-up said to your face that he wishes you'd never retire?

Don't fire him, Yuri!

Yuri was really out there listenin' to friends instead of Victor.  How many times did Victor ignore the others' entreaties to return to competition to remain his coach?  Don't join that Greek chorus. Yuri.      

I beg to differ.  He's always concerned about your well-being, which is why you gave him an expensive-ass symbol of devotion and put it on his ring finger.  Good God, boy.

This inspiration thing goes both ways, Yuri.  LISTEN TO VICTOR.  He is telling you what HE wants In This Moment.  Not what YOU think is best for HIM.    

Like hell! You two hash this out right now!

**End rant**

Look, a skater who was popular back when I used to watch.  LOL.  Stephane L-l-l-l-lambiel!

So, sports reporter Marooka remarks about how Yuri hasn't been seen practicing in public since the day after the short program, which has worried his fans (see, Yuri, you have FANS.)  You mean to tell me Yuri and Victor have been at odds with each other for two whole days now?!?!

Cartoon!Lambiel picks up on Yuri and Victor's uncharacteristically low energy.

You don't say, Stephane.

Also: Victor knows Stephane, personally.  What a celeb.

At least flag guy has re-energized himself since JJ's short program.

"Don't eff it up."

"Don't eff it up."

"Don't eff it up."

He eff'd it up.

Wow, shades of Yuri from episode one.

Deep, bro.

Aww! The parents in this show are the best cheerleaders.  If only there was time during the season to meet all of them.  I'd def like to see Phichit's parents.

So, JJ's dad is reminiscing on some of his son's past coaches.  Celestino, then played by Peg Bundy, was one of them.

Also…. I'm really curious as to what JJ needed to say yes to.

Damn you, Mickey Lannister Crispino!  Hands off!

Seung Gil! What an awesome cameo.  

I don't know much about scoring in figure skating but this seems a mite high for a program that was mostly jumps.

Yay! No other comment needed.

Phichit's ice-show dreams are as adorable as he is.  Christophe with a hamster cap is utterly, utterly charming.  I would fork over cold, hard blood plasma donation cash to see this in person.

It shouldn't be like this between them; especially not when Yuri plans to end his competitive career, here.

And really, why is Yuri so upset with Victor?  I suspect Yuri's selfishness runs deeper than either of them realize. IMO, he's afraid Victor might come to resent him if he retires from skating to coach him, then regrets it.

But honestly, Yuri should know Victor better than that by now.

Despite everything, Victor is still trying to be the coach Yuri needs.

But… Yuri doesn't want Victor to play coach right now.

So tickle his fancy, Victor.

Um…

Victor has an interesting sense of humor.

Also, he did win the one against the teenagers at the local comp.  Though I have no idea if a qualifier is considered part of the Senior circuit.

Yeah, katsudon's not the only way to celebrate, Yuri.  Victor wants to really give you something worth winning for.

This is just an R&B song waiting to happen.

Hmm… whatever could you mean, Yuri?

I really love how they've cut Yuri's long program with clips of Victor from Yuri's memory.  It's a visual culmination of a journey.

Ahh, that's what he meant about making up his mind about his goal.  And that's why he wanted Victor to stop playing at being coach.  Because he wasn't going to listen to him, anyway.  You know, the usual.

Yuri's internal dialogue during his routine reveals his desire to stay in figure skating with Victor forever and his fear of killing Victor's career if he remains Yuri's coach.  Victor… have you not shared with the man how competition was already slowly killing you? Might wanna do that sometime in the very, very near future.

Yuri… just loves Victor.  He can't always articulate how much, but he can show it.  His program is one big tribute to Victor and Yuri's desire to prove everyone how much Victor means to him as a coach and an inspiration.

And Victor gets the message loud and clear.

Mari+Minako are, yet again, Me.

Something I should've wondered by now is how half-blind Yuri can tell where Victor is standing.

The monkey-on-his-back that is Anxiety.

Seriously, you performed to the absolute best of your ability, Yuri.  Relax.  Relate. Release.  

Wowsa, dude.

Sooooo, Victor has just congratulated Yuri on his record-breaking performance and implies that he might come back to competition in the same breath he confesses his pride in both his pupils.  The possibility of Victor's return delights Yuri to no-end but gives me pause.  A lot of pause.

Victor. My dude.  Are you just trying not to ruin the mood?  Because quite honestly, one of the very valuable lessons you should've learned on this journey is that a little selfishness can be a good thing.  I know you want to make a grand gesture after Yuri's grand gesture but YOU CAN'T BOTH KEEP MAKING GRAND GESTURES.  You'll hurt yourselves trying to show the world your love.  

Moving on... Chris is on the ice, having serious thoughts about how Yuri, who was rumored to retire after the GPF, beat his personal best.  He laments that it won't be as easy for him to win gold as he first thought.

Then he witnesses the happy couple doing their thing.

And gets distracted.  

This is in regards to Victor.  Chris is rethinking his initial calculation of GPF - Victor = gold for him.

Aww, Chris is Phichit's buddy.  Why am I not surprised?

This scene is after Chris decides to change an earlier jump composition to the second half of his program.  Can't say he's not a fighter.

Dawww, Minako.

Really? That's it?!  By my estimation, that program was better than JJ's.  What am I missing?

Boo, this is the last time I'll see my babe, Leo.

But I concur.  Go, Otabek! I'm fond of his music choices, skating, and his costumes.  

So, Victor finds Yakov to tell him he wants to return to competition.  I mean, it couldn’t have waited until after Yurio’s skate, V?

Once upon a time, news of Victor's return may have pleased Yurio.  Now, his first concern is Yuri.  

And Victor is Not.  Happy. About this.  He’s about to cry here, tbqh.

Annnnd he requires immediate comfort.  This is sad. More than sad, when I consider Victor is letting Yuri call the shots, here.  Competing again should be Victor's own decision, as well.

Yeah, that's good advice to pass along, Victor.

I've been debating as to whether or not I should parse out the intricacies of Victor's isolation.  Honestly, I think the writers did a well-enough job of it.  I suppose I still wonder, as many others have, about his family.

I'll go out on a limb and assume he has or had people in his life that taught him to love like he does and to treat other people kindly.  One doesn't learn those sorts of things in a vacuum.  However, I headcanon Victor as having been scouted and, once recruited, moved closer to a training facility, a la these athletes.

So, isolated?  Yes. Friend-less and family-less?  I doubt it, or at least it wasn't always that way.

Meanwhile, Yuri's looking for his man.  Perhaps to tell him that he's already changed his mind about retiring?  In that case, please, look harder Yuri!

Just needed to slide in this cap of Mila getting sprung by Otabek's skating.  Good taste, Mila.

I don't know who JJ has in his pocket on the judging panel, but Otabek just completed a perfect program AND he was ahead of JJ after the short program.  Logic would dictate he'd be ahead of JJ now. But, do as you will, YOI.

This is in regards to Yuri.  In flashbacks during Yurio's routine, we discover that he was actually impressed with Yuri's prior GPF free skate, despite the errors.  It was only after he found Yuri crying in the bathroom stall that he lost respect for him.  Must be Yurio's special brand of encouragement: "Stop crying, get better, or get out of the game!"  Yeah. That must be it.

Anyway, now Yurio has changed his tune and doesn't want Yuri to retire, at all. Cute.

Lilia is so proud of her angry, pseudo- son.

 Yurio completes his most difficult program ever with only one fall.  During his skate, it's revealed that part of his motivation was to become a new goal for Yuri to surpass.  That's nice and all, but not at the expense of your own health, Yurio.

I don't think Yuri would want that for him, either.

Yurio defeats Yuri by a sliver of a margin.  I will admit to initially being surprised by the result before considering (and re-considering, after this re-watch) a few things:

Yurio won because it's entirely possible he may not win again for at least a little while.

His lack of stamina is well-documented, he's in the Senior circuit with grown men who can, and have, beat him already, and he's yet to hit a growth spurt. If the series continues into a second season, then I foresee the writers exploring these very realistic scenarios for Yurio.

This is partially why I don't predict Yurio achieving what Victor has, at least not right away.  There's not enough drama in that narrative to fill up an entire season, IMO.

Or, at the very least, they'll use Yurio to address the conflict over becoming as isolated as Victor has during his struggle to maintain dominance in the sport.

Yurio won because the name of the show is 'Yuri on Ice’.

Also, if the writers decide to have Yuri eventually retire (because he is of that age), then they don't even have to change the show’s title.  How convenient.

Last, and what I think is obviously implied in this episode: Yurio won so that Yuri would change his mind about retiring.

However… Yuri had already changed his mind.  And his biggest motivator in that decision was still Victor, so… kinda wish they hadn't made Yurio go out and suffer like that for no good reason. Honestly, there's little chance of him repeating this performance.

Anyway….

Awww! Yay!

So, Victor's in a teasing mood after Yuri presents him with his well-earned silver medal. Victor insists that he only wants to kiss gold.  So, what do you have that would be a suitable substitute, Yuri?

Eff that medal Yuri just unceremoniously dropped to the ground in preference to hopping in Victor's lap.  Coach me for another year, Victor!

What a lovely step forward for our boy, Yuri.  He didn't win gold but, all joking aside, Victor doesn't care.  Yuri’s next gold medal will be a token to Victor, instead of unnecessary proof that he was worth Victor’s time, all along.

Besides, I think he’s already given Victor the only golden item he truly wants.

But, I mean, only if you WANT to, Victor.  Are you afraid Yuri will change his mind if you change yours?  I hope that's not the case.

 Apparently, this is the only payment Victor will accept for coaching Yuri. Ok, so you're going to compete and hopefully earn some sponsorship money to pay your own bills all while coaching someone else for free?  Do we need to have a 'Victor on Ice,' a show about Victor re-learning the value of doing one thing at a time?

Roll credits!

How sweet!

The serendipity that is cartoon-world.  "I want to coach a skater from another country while also competing for my own country and you can't stop me because I'm animated!"

or

"I want to do a pair skate with my coach for my exhibition.  Know why?  Because the writers say I can!!  Ha!"

Anyway, this is romantic AF.

Cut to this adorbs face...

Running towards this one, here.

And yeah. WE'D BETTER.  Because their story isn’t over!

 The End!

If you managed to get through my all streams of consciousness, full of bad screencaps and even worse grammar, then I humbly and sincerely thank you!  I enjoyed doing it and hope you enjoyed reading it.  

[pannimanagementteam]

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[theliberaltony]

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

On Nov. 5, the night before last month’s midterms, I got dinner with Sean Trende from RealClearPolitics. Over the years, Sean and I have learned to stare into the abyss and play out various “unthinkable” scenarios in our head. Sure, it was unlikely, but what if Republicans won the popular vote for the House, as a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted just before the election suggested? Or what if Democrats won it by about 15 percentage points, as a Los Angeles Times poll had it? What if polls were just so screwed up that there were a ton of upsets in both directions?

Instead, the election we wound up with was one where everything was quite … dare I say it? … predictable. Polls and forecasts, including FiveThirtyEight’s forecast, were highly accurate and did about as well as you could expect. So let’s go through how our forecast, in particular, performed: I’ll brag about what it got right, along with suggesting some areas where — despite our good top-line numbers — there’s potentially room to improve in 2020.

But before I do that, I want to remind you that our forecasts are probabilistic. Not only are our forecasts for individual races probabilistic, but our model assumes that the errors in the forecasts are correlated across races — that is, if one party’s chances were overrated in one race, they’d likely be overrated in many or all races. Because errors are correlated, we’re going to have better years and worse ones in terms of “calling” races correctly. This year was one of the better years — maybe the best we’ve ever had — but it’s still just one year. In the long run, we want our forecasts to be accurate, but we also want our probabilities to be well-calibrated, meaning that, for instance, 80 percent favorites win about 80 percent of the time.

I say that because we’ve frequently argued that our 2016 forecasts did a good job because they gave President Trump a considerably higher chance than the conventional wisdom did and because our probabilities were well-calibrated. But Trump did win several key states (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania) in which he was an underdog, and he was an underdog in the Electoral College overall. So 2016 was good from a calibration perspective but middling from an accuracy (calling races correctly) perspective. This year was sort of the opposite: terrific from an accuracy perspective, but actually somewhat problematic from a calibration perspective because not enough underdogs won. We’ll get back to that theme in a moment.

First, though, I just want to look at our topline numbers for the House, the Senate and governorships. Keep in mind that there are three different versions of our forecast: Lite (which uses local and national polls only, making extrapolations in districts that don’t have polling based on districts that do have polling), Classic (which blends the polls with other data such as fundraising numbers) and Deluxe (which adds expert ratings to the Classic forecasts). Classic is the “default” forecast, but we made pretty extensive use of all three versions over the course of our election coverage, so it’s fair to evaluate and critique them all.

Here’s more detail on the numbers in that chart:

The House. Two House races remain uncalled as of this writing: California 21, where Democrat TJ Cox has pulled ahead, overcoming a big deficit on election night, and North Carolina 9, where Republican Mark Harris leads but the vote hasn’t been certified because of possible fraud in absentee ballots. I’m going to assume for the rest of this article that Cox and Harris will indeed prevail in their respective races.1

If that’s the case, Democrats will wind up with a net gain of 40 House seats. That’s a big number, but it’s actually not that much of a surprise. In fact, it’s quite close to the mean number of seats that our various forecasts projected: Classic had Democrats picking up an average of 39 seats, Lite had 38 seats and Deluxe had 36 seats.

It’s also important to point out that the range of possible seat gains in our forecasts was wide. In the Classic forecast, for instance, our 80 percent confidence interval — that is, everything between the 10th and 90th percentiles of possible outcomes — ran from a Democratic gain of 21 seats all the way to a Democratic gain of 59 seats. We were pretty lucky to wind up only one or two seats off, in other words. With that said, it isn’t as though our model just threw up its hands and didn’t have an opinion about the election. Although they provided for a realistic chance (between a 12 percent and 20 percent chance in the different versions of the model) of Republicans holding the House, our forecasts were more confident about Democrats than the conventional wisdom was; GOP chances of keeping the House were closer to 35 percent in betting markets, for instance. So we think our House model was on the right side of the argument, in terms of being bullish on Democrats.

Our forecasts also did a good job of projecting the popular vote for the House. As of Monday afternoon, Democrats led the national popular vote for the House by 8.5 percentage points, but this margin has been rising as additional ballots from California, New York and other states are counted, and Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman estimates that it will eventually reach 8.7 points. That’s very close to where the Classic and Deluxe models had the popular vote, showing Democrats winning by 9.2 points and 8.8 points, respectively. (It also exactly matches our final generic congressional ballot average of the Democrats ahead by 8.7 points, but note that the estimate of the popular vote in our forecast incorporates factors other than just the generic ballot.) The Lite forecast was a bit too high on Democrats’ popular vote margin, by contrast, showing them winning it by 10.2 points, largely because it overestimated how well Democrats would do in extremely Democratic districts where there wasn’t a lot of polling.

The Senate. Republicans won a net of two Senate seats from Democrats, well within the middle of the 80 percent confidence intervals of all versions of our model, which showed a range between a two-seat Democratic gain and (depending on what version of the model you look at) a three- to four- seat Republican gain. The mean of our forecasts showed Republicans gaining between 0.5 (in Classic and Deluxe) and 0.7 (in Lite) Senate seats, so they did about one-and-a-half seats better than expected, although that’s a fairly minor difference. That difference is essentially accounted for by Florida and Indiana, where Republicans won despite being modest underdogs in our forecast. (I’ll have a table showing the biggest upsets later on in this column.) Meanwhile, each party won its fair share of toss-ups (e.g., Republicans in Missouri, Democrats in Nevada).

Governorships. Our gubernatorial forecast predicted that Republicans were more likely than not to control a majority of governorships after the election2 which is within the 80 percent confidence interval for our population forecast but is less than the mean of our projections, which had Democrats predicted to govern about 60 percent of the population. The main culprit for the difference was Florida, which accounts for about 6 percent of the U.S. population. Republican Ron DeSantis won there despite having only about a 20 percent chance of prevailing in our forecast.

But while our top-line numbers were quite accurate, what about in individual races? Those were very good also. Between the House (435 races), Senate (35) and gubernatorial races (36), we issued forecasts in a total of 506 elections. Of those:

The Lite forecast called the winner correctly in 482 of 506 races (95 percent).

The Classic forecast called the winner correctly in 487 of 506 races (96 percent).

And the Deluxe forecast called the winner correctly in 490 of 506 races (97 percent).

Granted, a fair number of those races were layups (only 150 or so of the 506 races might be considered highly competitive). Still, that’s better than we expected to do. Based on the probabilities listed by our models, we’d have expected Lite to get 466 races right (92 percent), Classic to get 472 races right (93 percent) and Deluxe to get 476 races right (94 percent) in an average year. It’s also nice that Deluxe called a few more races correctly than Classic and that Classic called a few more correctly than Lite, since that’s how our models are supposed to work: Lite accounts for less information, which makes it simpler and less assumption-driven, but at the cost of being (slightly) less accurate.

Again, though, it isn’t entirely good news that there were fewer upsets than expected. That’s because it means our forecasts weren’t super well-calibrated. The chart below shows that in some detail; it breaks races down into the various category labels we use such as “likely Republican” and “lean Democrat.” (I’ve subdivided our “toss-up” category into races where the Democrat and Republican were slightly favored.) In most of these categories, the favorites won more often than expected — sometimes significantly more often.3

How well our Lite forecast was calibrated

Where Democrats were favored Category Races Expected Wins for Favorite Actual Wins for Favorite Expected % Correct Actual % Correct Toss-up (tilt D) 19 10 12 54% 63% Lean D 16 11 13 67 81 Likely D 33 29 32 88 97 Solid D 205 204 205 100 100 All races 273 254 262 93 96 Where Republicans were favored Category Races Expected Wins for Favorite Actual Wins for Favorite Expected % Correct Actual % Correct Toss-up (tilt R) 11 6 4 55% 36% Lean R 22 15 19 70 86 Likely R 64 56 61 87 95 Solid R 136 134 136 99 100 All races 233 211 220 91 94 All races combined Category Races Expected Wins for Favorite Actual Wins for Favorite Expected % Correct Actual % Correct Toss-up 30 16 16 55% 53% Lean 38 26 32 69 84 Likely 97 84 93 87 96 Solid 341 339 341 99 100 All races 506 466 482 92 95

How well our Classic forecast was calibrated

Where Democrats were favored Category Races Expected Wins for Favorite Actual Wins for Favorite Expected % Correct Actual % Correct Toss-up (tilt D) 13 7 9 56% 69% Lean D 13 9 10 66 77 Likely D 30 26 29 87 97 Solid D 216 215 216 100 100 All races 272 257 264 95 97 Where Republicans were favored Category Races Expected Wins for Favorite Actual Wins for Favorite Expected % Correct Actual % Correct Toss-up (tilt R) 12 7 7 55% 58% Lean R 17 12 15 69 88 Likely R 55 47 51 85 93 Solid R 150 149 150 99 100 All races 234 214 223 92 95 All races combined Category Races Expected Wins for Favorite Actual Wins for Favorite Expected % Correct Actual % Correct Toss-up 25 14 16 56% 64% Lean 30 20 25 68 83 Likely 85 73 80 86 94 Solid 366 364 366 100 100 All races 506 472 487 93 96

How well our Deluxe forecast was calibrated

Where Democrats were favored Category No. Races Expected Wins for Favorite Actual Wins for Favorite Expected % Correct Actual % Correct Toss-up (tilt D) 8 4 6 53% 75% Lean D 22 14 17 66 77 Likely D 29 25 28 88 97 Solid D 216 215 216 100 100 All races 275 260 267 94 97 Where Republicans were favored Category No. Races Expected Wins for Favorite Actual Wins for Favorite Expected % Correct Actual % Correct Toss-up (tilt R) 7 4 3 57% 43% Lean R 10 7 10 68 100 Likely R 52 45 48 86 92 Solid R 162 161 162 99 100 All races 231 217 223 94 97 All races combined Category No. Races Expected Wins for Favorite Actual Wins for Favorite Expected % Correct Actual % Correct Toss-up 15 8 9 55% 60% Lean 32 21 27 66 84 Likely 81 70 76 87 94 Solid 378 377 378 100 100 All races 506 476 490 94 97

For instance, in races that were identified as “leaning” in the Classic forecast (that is, “lean Democrat” or “lean Republican”), the favorite won 83 percent of the time (25 of 30 races) when they were supposed to win only two-thirds of the time (20 of 30). And in “likely” races, favorites had a 94 percent success rate when they were supposed to win 86 percent of the time. Based on measures like a binomial test, it’s fairly unlikely that these differences arose because of chance alone and that favorites just “got lucky”; rather, they systematically won more often than expected.

Here’s the catch, though: As we’ve emphasized repeatedly, polling errors often are systematic and correlated. In many elections, polls are off by 2 or 3 points in one direction or another across the board — and occasionally they’re off by more than that. (The polling error in 2016 was actually pretty average by historical standards; it was far from the worst-case scenario.) In years like those, you’re going to miss a whole bunch of races. This year, however, polls were both quite accurate and largely unbiased, with a roughly equal number of misses in both directions. The probabilities in our forecasts reflect how accurate we expect our forecasts to be, on average, across multiple election cycles, including those with good, bad and average polling. Another way to look at this is that you should “bank” our highly accurate forecasts from this year and save them for a year in which there’s a large, systematic polling error — in which case more underdogs will win than are supposed to win according to our model.

With that said, there are a couple of things we’ll want to look at in terms of keeping those probabilities well-calibrated. One huge benefit to people making forecasts in the House this year was the series of polls conducted by The New York Times’s The Upshot in conjunction with Siena College. These polls covered dozens of competitive House races, and they were extremely accurate. Especially combined with polls conducted by Monmouth University, which also surveyed a lot of House districts, election forecasters benefited from much richer and higher-quality polling than we’re used to seeing in House races. In theory, our forecasts are supposed to be responsive to this — they become more confident when there’s more high-quality polling. But we’ll want to double-check this part of the calculation; it’s possible that the forecast’s probabilities need to be more responsive to the volume of polling in a race.

OK, now for the part that critics of FiveThirtyEight will love, as will people who just like underdog stories. Here’s a list of every upset as compared to our forecasts — every race where any candidate with less than a 50 percent chance of winning (in any one of the three versions of our model) actually won:

The biggest upsets of 2018

Races in which at least one version of the FiveThirtyEight model rated the eventual winner as an underdog

Winning Party’s Chances Race Winner Lite Classic Deluxe OK-5 D 7.6% 14.3% 6.6% SC-1 D 20.0 9.4 8.6 FL-Gov R 18.7 22.8 22.2 CA-21 D* 27.6 21.0 16.1 NY-11 D 25.0 23.7 20.3 FL-Sen R 27.8 29.6 26.8 IN-Sen R 29.0 28.2 38.3 VA-2 D 29.4 32.7 40.6 OH-Gov R 33.5 40.5 38.1 IA-Gov R 42.2 42.7 36.4 KS-2 R 49.7 38.2 35.9 MN-1 R 51.7 44.2 40.1 TX-7 D 41.0 52.2 44.7 VA-7 D 44.3 43.7 52.0 NM-2 D 44.8 44.4 52.2 MO-Sen R 46.5 43.1 52.8 KS-Gov D 53.6 42.8 50.0 GA-6 D 56.8 49.1 40.6 TX-32 D 64.2 37.2 46.3 NC-9 R* 51.8 52.4 45.0 CA-25 D 31.9 63.7 55.9 CA-39 D 44.0 58.2 51.8 FL-26 D 48.8 55.8 50.2 NY-22 D 43.8 52.2 60.4 KY-6 R 47.9 54.3 57.3 CA-48 D 41.7 56.6 62.8 PA-1 R 47.2 57.2 59.4 IL-6 D 54.7 48.6 62.0 VA-5 R 48.6 53.8 70.0 SD-Gov R 44.6 63.1 65.4

* Winner has not been called, but these candidates lead in the vote count.

Although DeSantis’s win in the Florida gubernatorial race was the highest-profile (and arguably most important) upset, it wasn’t the most unlikely one. Instead, depending on which version of our model you prefer, that distinction belongs either to Democrat Kendra Horn in winning in Oklahoma’s 5th Congressional District or to another Democrat, Joe Cunningham, winning in South Carolina’s 1st District. Two other Democratic House upsets deserve an honorable mention: Cox (probably) winning in California 21 and Max Rose winning in New York 11, which encompases Staten Island and parts of Brooklyn. None of these upsets were truly epic, however. Horn had only a 1 in 15 chance of winning according to our Deluxe model, for instance — making her the biggest underdog to win any race in any version of our model this year — but over a sample of 506 races, you’d actually expect some bigger upsets than that — e.g., a candidate with a 1 in 50 shot winning. Bernie Sanders’s win in the Michigan Democratic primary in 2016 — he had less than a 1 in 100 chance according to our model — retains the distinction of being the biggest upset in FiveThirtyEight history out of the hundreds of election forecasts we’ve issued.

As an election progresses, I always keep a mental list of things to look at the next time I’m building a set of election models. (This is as opposed to making changes to the model during the election year, which we strongly try to avoid, at least beyond the first week or two when there’s inevitably some debugging to do.) Sometimes, accurate results can cure my concerns. For instance, fundraising numbers were a worry heading into election night because they were so unprecedentedly in favor of Democrats, but with results now in hand, they look to have been a highly useful leading indicator in tipping our models off to the size of the Democratic wave.

Here are a few concerns that I wasn’t able to cross off my list, however — things that we’ll want to look at more carefully before 2020.

Underweighting the importance of partisanship, especially in races with incumbents. A series of deeply red states with Democratic incumbent senators — Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, West Virginia — presented a challenge for our model this year. On the one hand, these states had voted strongly for Trump in an era of high party-line voting. On the other hand, they featured Democratic incumbents who had won (in some cases fairly easily) six years earlier — and 2018 was shaping up to be a better year for Democrats than 2012. The “fundamentals” part of our model thought that Democratic incumbents should win these races because that’s what had happened historically — when a party was having a wave election, the combination of incumbency and having the wind at its back from the national environment was enough to mean that almost all of a party’s incumbents were re-elected.

That’s not what happened this year, however. Democratic incumbents held on in Montana and West Virginia (and in Minnesota’s 7th district, the reddest congressional district held by a Democratic incumbent in the House) — but those wins were close calls, and the incumbents in the Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota Senate races lost. Those outcomes weren’t huge surprises based on the polls, but the fundamentals part of the model was probably giving more credit to those incumbents than it should have been. Our model accounts for the fact that the incumbency advantage is weaker than it once was, but it probably also needs to provide for partisanship that is stronger than it was even six or eight years ago — and much stronger than it was a decade or two ago.

The house effects adjustment in races with imbalanced polling. Our house effects calculation adjusts polls that have a partisan lean — for instance, if a certain pollster is consistently 2 points more favorable to the Republican candidate than the consensus of other surveys, our adjustment will shift those polls back toward Democrats. This is a longstanding feature of FiveThirtyEight’s models and helps us to make better use of polls that have a consistent partisan bias. This year, however, the house effects adjustment had a stronger effect than we’re used to seeing in certain races — in particular, in the Senate races in Missouri, Indiana and Montana, where there was little traditional, high-quality polling and where many polls were put out by groups that the model deemed to be Republican-leaning, so the polls were adjusted toward the Democrats. In fact, Missouri and Indiana were two of the races where Republicans beat our polling average by the largest amount, so it’s worth taking a look at whether the house effects adjustment was counterproductive. When we next update our pollster ratings, we’ll also want to re-examine how well traditional live-caller polls are performing as compared with other technologies.

CANTOR forecasts in races with little polling. As I mentioned, the Lite version of our model tended to overestimate Democrats’ vote share in deeply blue districts. This overestimation was based on our CANTOR algorithm, which uses polls in races that do have polling to extrapolate what polls would say in races that have little or no polling. This wasn’t a very consequential problem for projecting the number of seats each party would win, since it only affected noncompetitive races. But it did lead the Lite model to slightly overestimate the Democrats’ performance in the popular vote. To be honest, we don’t spend a ton of energy on trying to optimize our forecasts in noncompetitive races — our algorithms are explicitly designed to maximize performance in competitive races instead. But since this was the first year we used CANTOR, it’s worth looking at how we can improve on it, perhaps by using techniques such as MRP, which is another (more sophisticated) method of extrapolating out forecasts in states and districts with little polling.

Implementing a “beta test” period. We did quite a bit of debugging in the first week or two after our House model launched. The most consequential fix was making the generic ballot polling average less sensitive after it was bouncing around too much. None of these involved major conceptual or philosophical reimaginations of the model, and they didn’t change the top-line forecast very much. Still, I think we can do a better job of advertising to you that the initial period after forecast launch will typically involve making some fixes, perhaps by labelling it as a beta period or “soft launch” — and that we should be exceptionally conservative about making changes to the model once that period is over. As much as you might test a model with data from past elections to see how it’s handling edge cases, there’s a certain amount you only learn once you’re working with live data and seeing how the model is reacting to it in real time, and getting feedback from readers (that means you, folks!), who often catch errors and idiosyncrasies.

The election night model. Last but not least, there was our election night forecast, which started with our final, pre-election Deluxe forecast but revised and updated the forecast as results started to come in. Indeed, these revisions were pretty substantial; at one point early on election night, after disappointing results for Democrats in states such as Kentucky, Indiana and Florida, the Democrats’ probability of winning the House deteriorated to only about 50-50 before snapping back to about what it had been originally.

I have some pretty detailed thoughts on all of this, which you can hear on a “model talk” podcast that we recorded last month. But the gist of it is basically four things:

First, to some extent, this was just a consequence of which states happened to report their results first. Amy McGrath’s loss in Kentucky 6 was one of the most disappointing results of the evening for Democrats, and in Senate races, Democrat Joe Donnelly underperformed his polls in Indiana, as did Bill Nelson in Florida. Those were the competitive races where we started to get a meaningful number of votes reported early in the evening. Conversely, it took quite a while before any toss-up House or Senate races were called for Democrats. Maybe our model was too aggressive in reacting to them, but the early results really were a bit scary for Democrats.

Second, election night models are tough because there are risks in accounting for both too little information and too much. Our model mostly waited for states where races had been “called” (projected by the ABC News Decision Desk) or where a large portion of the vote was in, so it was still hung up on Kentucky, Florida and Indiana even after initial returns in other states were more in line with the polls. If we had designed the model to look at county- or precinct-level data in partially-reported states instead of just the top-line results and calls, it might not have shifted to the GOP to the same degree. But the risk in that is that data feeds can break, and the more complicated the set of assumptions in a model, the harder it is to debug if something seems to be going wrong.

Third — and this is not just a challenge for election night models but for all journalists covering the election in real time — early voting and mail balloting can can cause the initial results to differ quite a bit from the final tallies. In California and Arizona, for instance, late-reported mail-in ballots tend to be significantly more Democratic than the vote reported on election evening. This didn’t matter much to our model’s swings early in the evening, but it contributed to the model being too somewhat too conservative about Democratic seat gains later on in the night.

And fourth, election night models are inherently challenging just because there isn’t any opportunity for debugging — everything is happening very fast, and there’s not really time to step back and evaluate whether the model is interpreting the evidence correctly or instead is misbehaving in some way. Our solution to the model’s oversensitive initial forecasts was to implement a “slowdown” parameter that wasn’t quite a kill switch but that allowed us to tell the model to be more cautious. While this may have been a necessary evil, it wasn’t a great solution; our general philosophy is to leave models alone once they’re launched unless you know something is wrong with them.

The thing you might notice is that none of these challenges are easy to resolve. That doesn’t mean there can’t be improvements at the margin, or even substantial improvements. But election night forecasts are inherently hard because of the speed at which election nights unfold and the sometimes-uneven quality of returns being reported in real time. The chance that a model will “break” is fairly high — much higher than for pre-election forecasts. As long as news organizations that sponsor these models are willing to accept those risks, they can have a lot of news value, and even with those risks, they’re probably superior to more subjective ways of evaluating results as they come in on election night. But the risks are real. As in any type of breaking news environment, consumers and journalists need think of election night reporting as being more provisional and intrinsically and unavoidably error-prone than stories that unfold over the course days or weeks.

Finally, a closing thought for those of you who have made it this far. The 2018 midterms were FiveThirtyEight’s sixth election cycle (three midterms, three presidential years) — or our ninth if you want to consider presidential primaries as their own election cycles, which you probably should. We actually do think there’s enough of a track record now to show that our method basically “works.” It works in two senses: first, in the sense that it gets elections right most of the time, and second, in the sense that the probabilistic estimates are fairly honest. Underdogs win some of the time, but not any more often than they’re supposed to win according to our models — arguably less often, in fact.

That doesn’t mean there aren’t things to work on; I hope you’ll see how meticulous we are about all of this. We’re interested in hearing critiques from other folks who are rigorous in how they cover elections, whether that coverage is done with traditional reporting, with their own statistical models, or with a technique somewhere in between reporting and modelling like the excellent and very accurate forecasts published by the Cook Political Report.

But we’re pretty tired of the philosophical debates about the utility of “data journalism” and the overwrought, faux-“Moneyball” conflict between our election forecasts and other types of reporting. We probably won’t be as accurate-slash-lucky in 2020 as we were in 2018, especially in the primaries, which are always kind of a mess. But our way of covering elections is a good way to cover them, and it’s here to stay.