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2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

I was drinking last night (heavily) and decided I would attempt to write about something I love--fantasy baseball. Let me start off by saying, FUCK CORONA. I desperately wish I was able to take Caltrain to a San Francisco Giants game, order some garlic fries, and watch them get boat raced by the visiting team—but I guess being stuck in my apartment constantly refreshing twitter for any semblance of “good news” is today’s reality. I’ve long since completed my fantasy baseball research, league drafts, and crying over the fact we have no idea when baseball will start. In order to preserve my sanity, here are some sleepers for the 2020 fantasy baseball season:

Josh Bell

Fantasy drafters seem low on Bell after a down second half of the 2019 season. He actually finished strong slashing .261/.373/.554 in August ending the season with a robust .277/.367/.569 batting line. His 37 homers and 116 RBI were both top 10 amongst all hitters in the National League. At 27 years old, there is still time for Bell to improve and his batted ball data suggests his power breakout last year was no fluke—ranking top 15 in average exit velocity. I have no problem taking Bell many rounds later if I miss on Bellinger or Freeman. I’m projecting a .270/.370/.550 slash line and above average production in 4/5 categories (R, HR, RBI, AVG).

Tyler Glasnow

Unfortunately, injuries have always been the issue for Tyler Glasnow, and they again took their toll in 2019. After being traded away from Ray Searage and the Pirates pitching staff, the Devil Ray’s analytical approach to pitching has worked wonders for Glasnow. In spite of the injury-shortened season last year, Glasnow had the second-lowest xwOBA against in the MLB, an 11.3 K/9, and a WHIP under 1.00. If he stays healthy, he could easily finish as a top 10 starting pitcher this year. Carried by elite velocity (96.3 MPH four-seamer) and a nasty curveball (43.9 whiff %), developing a third pitch is key to him taking the next step. Even now, when healthy, he is damn near unhittable.

Joey Gallo

Gallo was in the midst of a full-blown breakout last year until a hamate bone injury ended his season—sporting an ISO of .344, a walk rate over 15%, and the highest batting average of his career (.253) in 2019. Although the batting average was buoyed by a .368 BABIP, Gallo was mashing last year and looked ready to push for 40+ homers. Gallo has some of the most prodigious power in the MLB, and any reduction to his strikeout rate could lead to a massive uptick in fantasy value. His upside is immense and I believe he hits the ball hard enough to overcome his strikeout issues. I’m betting on a 240/.370/.565 slash line, and the AL lead in strikeouts and homers.

Tommy Edman

When you can draft a player that is likely to have 25-30 steals and won’t kill your batting average—you do it. When you can draft that player at 137 overall—it’s a no brainer. Quietly, Edman led the Cardinals in batting average and slugging percentage while mashing 11 homers over 326 at-bats in 2019. Even if the power wasn’t for real, the batting average looks legit (.292 xBA). Although he is slated for a super-utility role, he is likely to play every day. If the Cardinals decide to bat him leadoff with regularity, fantasy owners could be looking at a ton of runs to go along with a .285/.345/.450 triple slash. This is an extremely useful player is today’s fantasy landscape that can swipe bags and is eligible at multiple positions (2B, 3B, OF).

Frankie Montas

Montas was on an upward trajectory since being traded to the Athletics in 2018. In 2019, he pitched to a 2.63 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over 16 starts before being hit with an 80 game PED suspension. He throws gas (96.8 MPT four-seamer), has two elite off-speed pitches, and a chance to be one of the biggest breakout pitchers of the 2020 season. When selecting players outside the top 100 you want to look for upside and Montas has the arsenal to easily outpace his current ADP. Being drafted around the same as Zach Wheeler and Madison Bumgarner, I’ll draft the upside with Montas and reap the benefits whenever the season starts (May?).

Zac Gallen

The Pacific Coast League (‘PCL”) is well known for being the most hitter-friendly league in professional baseball. In 2019, the league average OPS in the PCL was .829, compared to .758 in the MLB. None of those numbers mattered to Gallen who dominated the PCL with a 1.77 ERA, .71 WHIP and 11 K/9 before being called up by the Florida Marlins and eventually being traded to the Diamondbacks. Gallen dominated the MLB with a 2.81 ERA and 10.8 K/9 and looks to build on that by reducing his walk rate in 2020. Gallen’s 10.8% walk percentage is sharply divergent from his minor league numbers (6.26% walk rate) indicating he should improve in that category during his second season in the MLB.

Marcell Ozuna

Ozuna will likely be batting cleanup for a stacked Braves lineup. As long as he stays healthy, he is a strong contender to lead the league in RBI. Recently signed as a free agent after coming up with the Marlins and two years with the Cardinals, Ozuna is a great value at his current ADP. He was in the top 10 percent of the league in average exit velocity and xWOBA during 2019 despite his modest .800 OPS—meaning he very likely underperformed last year. Not a lot else to say here—when people inevitably overlook Ozuna, be smart and take a player who has a great chance to lead to the league in RBI in 2020.