davidnelsoncfa

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Fight the Fed - A Raw 2024 Investment Reality Check

Myth of the Elite 7 – Mega cap stocks were not the only path to success Challenging the Status Quo – Over-reliance on traditional investment mantras, in particular conventional wisdom surrounding the Federal Reserve has been an investment loser Reality Check – Lightning rarely strikes in the same place twice. Look outside the popular favorites for new themes as we head into 2024 The Price Tag…

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Buying into Big Tech: Strategic or are we now the Greater Fool

Big Tech’s Market Influence Walmart’s Earnings Report as an economic indicator Small Cap Stocks – Is this the beginning of a sustained rally? Fed – Can they pull off a soft landing When the Fed will cut By David Nelson, CFA CMT Bad news is good news. Good news is bad news. That’s been the guiding light for investors the last 22 months. It wasn’t the only focus, but it was certainly the force…

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Has the U.S. financial system passed the point of no return

By David Nelson, CFA Bullet Points First step in solving a problem is admitting you have one The United States of America is addicted to debt Will strong earnings put our problems behind us  Regime Change – Yields at the long end are going higher Problems show up in debt markets first Fixed income investors will demand higher yields House Speaker Washington – It’s too late for normal. We…

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The Fed moved the goalposts - How to play and win

By David Nelson, CFA We are coming into the last week of September and investors are facing some tough choices on how to position for the final quarter of 2023. On the heels of 3 weekly declines traders are bracing for a breakout in the VIX, (CBOE Volatility Index) forcing even lower prices or a reversion to the mean, relieving oversold conditions letting stocks take back some of the…

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From Bretton Woods to BRICS+: Will the $US remain the reserve currency?

By David Nelson, CFA Markets always climb a wall of worry, and this market is no different. Investors are still trying to swallow 11 rate hikes from a born-again Federal Reserve, as well as increasingly pessimistic news out of the second largest economy on the planet, China. A rising dollar hits U.S. multinationals, the yield curve screams recession and as the saying goes, the Fed keeps hiking…

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Time to get "Real" about the coming recession

By David Nelson, CFA Traveler’s usually follow in the footsteps of those who have successfully navigated the journey before them. Even Dorothy along with a few friends and her trusty dog Toto had the Yellow Brick Road. Investors are no different. We stick to the path as long as we can but have to be prepared to alter course when the weather turns. With map in hand confident we had sidestepped a…

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Why July 6th turned the market upside down - Charting a new course

By David Nelson, CFA Outside of death and taxes, there are few absolutes in life. For investors the world can be just as narrow. Fear and greed are the only things we can count on. Yes we have thousands of data points to judge companies and the health of the economy. At any given moment, some subset of that data drives security prices. However, it’s fear and greed that are the driving force in…

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Confessions of a Money Runner

I try to spend some part of my weekend in reflection. I ask the tough questions. What did I do right and what did I get wrong. If I'm honest with myself I can usually identify the problems. The next part is important. Do Something About It!

By David Nelson, CFA Everyone approaches life and their job differently. I spend some part of my weekend in reflection, looking back over the previous week, asking myself some tough questions. What did I do right? And more importantly, what did I get wrong? The scale is rarely balanced, but if I’m honest with myself, I can usually identify any problems in the process or execution. The next part…

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Every Bull Market has an Achilles Heel

By David Nelson, CFA CMT This is what most investors see when they look at a chart of U.S. stocks. Bloomberg Data This is what I see. Bloomberg Data Stocks are just 5% from an all-time high and a ball spiking end zone dance. The sentiment has turned bullish but making it across that goal line won’t be a walk in the park. Just like in football, the last few yards in the Red Zone can be the…

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The Money Runner Podcast - David Nelson, CFA

David Nelson launches The Money Runner. In the end money touches everything. The show will take on topics that resonate from Wall Street to Main Street and of course Washington.

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Magnificent 7 earnings on deck, what you need to know

In this week's market minute David takes you through what to expect from Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta earnings this week.

By David Nelson, CFA I get it. I look like I just came in from off the street. It’s Sunday morning, the crew is out, and I have to bang out this report before I can get some sleep. The next two weeks will go a long way in shaping investor sentiment for the remaining dog days of summer. On deck this week, three of the Magnificent Seven stocks are set to report. Bloomberg Data Alphabet (GOOGL),…

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Chip Wars

By David Nelson, CFA The tit for tat battle between the United States and China is raging. The US has already taken action restricting access to advanced semiconductors that could be used in artificial intelligence applications. American cloud computing, in some cases is also off limits, as access could help the Chinese circumvent A.I. restrictions by running applications in the cloud. Last…

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Caterer to Mercenary - Inside look into the military coup in Russia

By David Nelson, CFA CMT BREAKING NEWS! Every so often, a story takes shape that justifies the most overused graphic in broadcast media. The recent events in and outside Russia justify that headline as the most important story of the year unfolds. Over the weekend, an attempted military coup took place in Russia. The Wagner Group, a longtime mercenary outfit, Putin has used to expand Russia’s…

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You can't handle the truth - Do the Math on the 2023 Bull Market

By David Nelson, CFA The narrative for 2023 and a bull market that continues to get little respect is that without the support of its $trillion market cap members, most of the market is little more than roadkill. Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN) and its latest addition, Nvidia (NVDA) have put in a spectacular first half with some believing as soon as they weaken,…

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When Is It a Good Idea to Make an All In Bet

By David Nelson, CFA Going all-in. When do you make that bet? We see it in the movies all the time. Gamblers living on the edge push the chips to the center of the table confident there is no way they can lose. How does that scene play in the real world outside of a Hollywood set? If you have a dream or passion to succeed, there’s only one answer. You make that bet, or it will never come to…

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Tina Turner - RIP

By David Nelson TINA RIP – I think the passing of Tina Turner probably touched many. I’ll wanted to share my only encounter with her. It was in the 80’s just shortly before Tina had released What’s love got to do with it? I was playing guitar in the David Johansen band. It was a good year, and it was on the heels of David’s MTV hit… Management got us a slot opening for Tina at the Pier in New…

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Running On Empty - Why a debt deal could be bad news for stocks

#Yellen needs to fill up the tank. When we get a deal Treasury will issue debt and add 600-$700B to the General Account. #SPY Stocks aren't going to like that #Trump #Biden #Treasury #SocialSecurity

By David Nelson, CFA  You’ve probably had this conversation with friends and family. It goes something like this. What happens to my 401k and other investments if Democrats and Republicans can’t come to a compromise over the debt ceiling? U.S. debt is a staggering 31.4 trillion and debt to GDP is at the highest levels since World War II. Unfortunately, rhetoric from both sides of the aisle has…