jimmys-trading

[jimmys-trading]

Brief market overview

Hello, in this article I’m going to go over some general market structure on what I think along with a couple recent buys and reasoning behind them.

The Sp500 continues to grind higher and all large time frames still prove very bullish. This has been a stock pickers market past few month i.e. only a select few stocks are really producing gains. We’ve seen lots of rotation out of tech at the start on November into oil, banks, and beat down names (cruises stocks/airlines ect.) Why is this note worthy? Tech has been the market leader now for quite sometime and has not seen a new high since August while the SP500 has taken the lead.

SP500

As stated above technical’s are still very bullish we need to again break the highs to market on forward.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq here building an even larger base and is pending on its next move.

Overall market structure on the charts looks great I’ll be monitoring these two indexes very close here and looking  for the confirmation preferable in the tech sector for the momentum to return. On the other hand I am worried it a bit about the sentiment of the market. Below are two great examples of this.(These images are from Arun Chopra you can find him on twitter he does a fantastic job regarding market sentiment.) Vaccine news is now here. We still are in great need of a new stimulus bill as the real world is suffering greatly. There is a very large disconnect between the upper income and middle/lower incomes that is growing bigger by the day. So what has really held everything up so well? Liquidity, The amount of liquidity in global markets currently is staggering. A whole world wide money print is currently happening. Where does one put their money when bonds and savings are not yielding and interest rates are 0%? The stock market as its the only place you can generate any returns. As long as liquidity is around it will be hard for the stock market to experience any real crash. Many Federal Reserve board members have already stated that they will not let this happen and Janet Yellen our soon to be Treasury Secretary has even talked about the Fed buying stocks if a serve downturn where to happen. Over all its a very interesting underbelly the market has to it but regardless its important to follow the trend and which is why I love technical analysis as it helps provide the clearer picture which is still bullish. The concerns I mentioned above are just some things to keep in mind as a contrarian point of view. My main point is always be open minded and prepared. In February the market sold off 36% in a month and if you were not prepared it could have caused great damage. I am speaking from a trader and investor standpoint so its important your plans are tailored correctly for your portfolio.

Thank you for stopping by. If you have any questions,comments, or need help feel free to reach out. I am willing to help as much as possible and can point you toward other resources. 

[jimmys-trading]

Tips for beginners in the stock market

Hello everyone,

I thought it might be a bit useful to go over some things I have learned over the past four years trading and some things to think about if you want to try trading stocks. I will start off by saying that 80-90% of people who try to day trade equity markets i.e stocks,forex,crypto will fail. This is not to discourage anyone but to better understand the difficulty behind it. I will only scratch the surface here but feel free to reach out with any questions. Many are better off buying and holding long term though the problems I go over below happen to both short and long term investors/traders.

The first thing you have to do is educate yourself. Understanding how the stock market works and knowing how to interpret charts is incredibly important. There are tons of free resources out there on the internet for this. This in my opinion is the easiest part to learn and master. The next two aspects are what I think really makes trading difficult.

Second is experience. Experience comes from hours and hours of watching charts and actively participating in the markets. For me this took two years of watching the stock market everyday to truly understand and become a profitable trader. Watching charts and studying everyday is where this comes from and I find most people don’t have the drive to do this day in and day out for a long period of time. Learning and becoming profitable in the stock market is much like going to college. You have to pay a “ tuition” aka lose money in the stock market before you can start to win and become profitable. If you cannot dedicate yourself to the stock market and learning for a long period of time months/years you will not win in this game. I think for most people the thought of sitting and looking at a computer screen for hours on end is a deal breaker. For lots of people they are better off playing the longer term game which I’ll touch on a bit later.

Third and probably the most difficult of them all is mastering your emotions. First let me start by saying you MUST use real money when learning to trade/invest, without the emotions of real money its completely useless other than learning how to click the buy and sell button. You can be the smartest person in the world and still fail at trading if you are not capable of understanding and controlling your emotions 100% of the time. We humans are incredibly emotional beings and most people fail at controlling them especially when it comes to trading and money in general. You must use real money when learning because understanding the emotions that come from it are incredibly important. People will panic when they start to see there account go down as their money disappear and once you panic you have lost all control. Being well capitalized and being okay with everything going to zero is how you eliminate these emotions. Sounds simple right? Well most people lie to themselves about their risk causing extreme panic when things start going the wrong way. If you are okay will losing everything you put in it eliminates all of this, that is why being well capitalized is very important because if you're worried you might not be able to make the next house payment if you lose a trade then you WILL lose. If you NEED the money you will lose. This is just one of the many things that cause people to lose control of their emotions and fail at trading. Some other common emotional drivers are greed and a lack of patience. I cannot stress how important patience is in the market. Can you wait weeks or if not months sometimes for the best opportunities? When people lose they feel the need to get it all back right away and think of every way possible to do so which leads to placing very bad and emotionally driven trades which are bound to fail. Another is people getting emotionally attached to a stock/position, people become stubborn and stay way to long in losing trades thinking they’ll recover the loss if they’d just wait a bit longer but most of time results in even bigger losses. I can go on and on with scenarios and I have done them ALL at least once and still have times where one of my weaknesses will present it self but its your job to identify when that is happening and stop it. You'll never be able to get rid of your emotions 100% but understanding yourself as a person and when they arise is critical to your success as a trader and investor. It only takes one bad trade to ruin a years worth of progress or potentially your whole trading account. Learning to trade isn't just about the stock market but learning who you are as a person.

So what are some things you can do to set yourself up for success? Have a plan for every trade you make before you even enter it. Know where you will take your loss or begin to take profits. Without a plan you have already lost. Second is develop a system that works for you and most importantly is profitable. This is where the experience part comes in and finding what works best for you. There are tons of different ways to make money in equity markets so you must find what works best for you. To bring this to an end I find most people are just better off investing long term in a market index for example buying the sp500 index (ticker symbol $spy) and just cost averaging yourself consistently year over year. The year over year annualized return for the S&P500 is 9.8% so if you cannot consistently beat this then you're wasting your time, same goes if you decide to have someone else manage your money. If they are not consistently beating the markets average returns you yourself can do better than that. My last word of advice is invest into an IRA (individual retirement account) if you're young likely an Roth IRA vs a Traditional IRA you can google the differences and choose whats best suited for you. You can contribute a max of $6,000 a year and should if you're able to do so. I would simply buy the sp500 market index like stated above if you're not comfortable or inexperienced and just ride it all the way till retirement consistently averaging yourself in.

Yes the stock market is a “risk” but the risk of missing out is far greater. It is one of the few ways the common person can create great wealth. If you realize it or not everything you do in life has risk in some way so do not be discouraged from others saying stocks are to “risky”. Its far more risky to work a 9-5 everyday giving your time and depending on your employer for security.

I hope you were able to gain some knowledge from this and if you have and questions or comments feel free to reach out I love helping others and this is my passion.

Kindness regards,

Jimmy

[jimmys-trading]

Chaos in the economy

Hello everyone, quite a long ways we have come since my last post. In my last blog post I talked about the potential effects of the corona virus on the market. It turned out that I was just 3 weeks shy of the massive sell off from just that although I was not expecting this big of a move nor do I think anyone else. Essentially we reached a point back in January/February were the stock market ran straight up very similar to the end of year 2017 rally on trumps tax cut plan but, this time being the phase one China Deal followed by a blow off top which I feared would happen again with now with the rapid pick up of Corona virus in China. I posted a chart “similar” to other breakouts all showing significant losses. The difference this time is the virus has put the whole world on halt effecting the whole global economy within this it has exposed many of the faults within the US economy, especially within the United States financial system. Now all global economies are throwing in the kitchen sink with stimulus to save the markets with the US providing “unlimited Liquidity”.  With interest rates already at 0% the federal reserve has put themselves into a ditch along side the dry up of stock buy backs and pension fund flows. Essential the ripple effect this virus has caused is immense. Going forward will be a tough period with huge volatility in the market, lets take a look at some charts to get an idea of whats possible.    

ES- If the sp500 were to break the low created on 3-22 which is 2174 it opens the doors to 2000 and lower. If this is as as bad as the 2008 financial crisis we could potentially see 1600-1800 range.

ES- In contrast for the bullish side we need to get back above 2650. As you can see here on the weekly chart showing the 200 ema/ma movin average we have no been below since December of 2011. The last time we’ve broke below these major moving averages was back in 2008 in which it never got back above for quite some time.

This is just a very brief look at the sp500. The nasdaq has been performing much stronger than the SP500. Its possible we won’t see a bottom till tech stocks sell off with max pain. Over all its such a weird time in History we’ve never had a president so involved in the market and its hard to fight against the federal reserve with unlimited fire power. Its safe to safe without Fed intervention this would be way worse. The best thing you can do as a long term investor is cost average yourself in at key levels i.e using a percentage base of your capital and deploying it each time we reach a key level. Good luck to all going forward.

*This is not financial advice and strictly personal opinions*

[jimmys-trading]

Cool down with Corona

Hey everyone is been awhile since I have posted a blog. Last time I posted one we were on the brinks of a major breakout from a two year base. Since that post that SPX has moved up 9% in almost vertical fashion. This move reminds me a lot of the move from late 2017 into 2018 on the passing of the tax bill where as the major catalyst this time was phase one of the trade deal. With that said it would be healthy for the market to cool off a bit here and the perfect news line is here called the Corona Virus. Now I dislike people who go around and fear monger but the numbers don’t like here especially if the virus cannot be contained. I suggest looking a past major viruses the effect it had on the stock market (Ebola,Zika,Sars, MERS ect).  

Were roughly a WEEK into since the Corona virus has hit main stream and 7,711 are infected 1-29-2020. For reference *SARS had 8,098 cases, MERS 2,494, and Zika 5,000.

This is Chart of cases of Corona Virus being reported by the Chinese Government. The worse is we all know China lies about everything so the numbers could be far worse. We could potentially be at 1 million infected in less than two weeks if this is not contained. Anyways onto the charts. 

SPX- What a great run since the breakout. Ideally here like mentioned above would be a bit of consolidation. Over all the market is still super bullish and has shaken off many major events that normally would cause damage. My main target for the spx is still 3500. For downside in short term we need to hold the 3230 area that we recently made a bottom for. If that fails its likely we see a test of the 50 day Exponential/Simple daily moving averages at 3213/3209.50. Short term for bulls is back over 3,300.  

That is all I have time for tonight, my goal is to get back to weekly updates I have done in the past with more charts on individual names. Everyone have a wonderful rest of the trading week.

[jimmys-trading]

Markets set to move higher

Hello to everyone. It has been a bit since I have posted any content so lets get back to it tonight. The broad market indexes are all pointing toward a end of the year rally to the upside. If you haven’t noticed people have been so bearish all year finding every excuse for why the market should go down. One thing I have learned in the trading the past 3 years is when everyone is on the same page things are likely to do exactly the opposite. To truly succeed in this game you need to be a individual thinker and stay away from the herd mentality. The stock market is a big picture of human nature and emotions that repeat itself over time again and again. With that being said lets take a look at the SP500 and what is happening currently.  

ES- Huge breakout is now happening above this upper trend line. It looks like were going to make a shot for 3100 here. 

Here is another look from Peter Brandt one of my favorite technical traders. Which ever way you want to look at it this is a huge base breakout. Over all news with China right now is favorable again with the “phase one” deal. Most of the world is doing poorly and money has to go somewhere it doesn't just disappear and the US markets right now are one of the best places if not the best place to have your money. 

NQ- Nasdaq also giving a very nice breakout look.

MSFT- One name that has based well broke out and now in a tighter flag. I think is can make a good move higher here like Apple has as long as it holds the larger base breakout. 

AMD- Another semi that has been building a nice cup and handle. I noted this a while back and it is still building here. If we can get December tariffs off and a Huawei deal this name can really explode along with all other semiconductors.

DOCU- Very nice base build here and good company. Will likely build a common position above the breakout on this one.

There are tons of other great looking charts out there but here are good samples. Overall right now as long as no sudden news change happens were aiming at moving higher and trapping shorts even more. As always thanks for stopping by and lets see how price moves going forward. 

[jimmys-trading]

Hello everyone, today I’ll going over a couple things briefly but I highly encourage you to look into them more on your own time. Currently we are in a very news focused market. China trade war, impeachment talk, repo rates, bonds, and military action in the middle east. Despite all of this the market has been very strong and near all time highs but is looking for that juice to rally through new highs. For the long term investor overall there is nothing to worry about yet but in some sectors there is some serious damage happening. Many of the big momentum tech stocks are getting killed and offering some amazing trades on the downside. Many of these stocks are extremely high p/e ratios and bursting similar to the dot com bust of 2001 also similar are these overvalued ipos and ones that have just tried like wework. Below I’ll going over some of them and the charts with my ideas going forward if any. Please also refer to my blog a few post ago regarding when momentum stocks sell of it can be the first sign of trouble. 

ROKU- Perfect bear flag breakdown, followed by an analyst downgrade. On Friday I used 119 as my key for entering puts for the gap fill and was able to do X20 on the weeklies 110 puts making for an amazing trade. 

BYND- Was able to clean some decent profits from this breakdown but I expect some bigger rewards like roku’s 20x to come soon through the potential gap fill in the red box. below 139 I have 131 121 then gap fill to 109. Lock up date ends 10/29 and many investors will want to high tail it out. 

SHOP- Another great short trade especially today with the breakdown of the falling wedge. Levels going forward if it keeps going is 282.50 then 264.

NFLX- One of fangs getting destroyed. From a personal standpoint as well netflix isn’t that great of a platform anymore with so many other options. Sometimes just really observing the companies around you and the trend in real life can give you a very good idea of whats going on behind the closed door like I suspected with netflix. Going forward I have 249 232 209.

As you can see there is some similarities in these charts. You can also see how fast risk can happen especially with high momentum stocks but offer the best opportunities on the short side as volatility picks up. That is all for now I’ll try to be back next week until then good luck!

[jimmys-trading]

Fed Day recap/ Trade war update

Hello all, today I am going to go over a bit on the  Federal Reserve, China trade talks, and the usually stock recap. 

Federal Reserve: As expected we had a .25 point rate cut with weak global growth, trade tensions, and 2% inflation. One thing that is problematic about yesterday and just about every last fed meeting is that Powell does not know how to talk. Every time he has opened his mouth the market has tanked last 9 out of 10 times. He then said that this was a mid cycle adjustment meaning that they're still going to be hiking rates or going back to neutral contradicting his original statement in which supported more future rate cuts. 

China Trade: Today Trump announced 10% more tariffs on the 300 billion of Chinese good starting September 1st. As I stated before this deal is going to take a LONG time if there ever is a deal at all. As of now it seems like China will wait this one out till the next presidential election in hopes that a Democrat will win and things will go back to normal. Trump is also very unhappy with the feds decision since they did not drop rates by .50 points. I would not be surprised if Trump will try to bring the market down to further influence fed policy on cutting rates.

Market Recap:  

ES/QQQ: Here is the sp500 and qqq etf compromised of tech stocks. Both share the same rising channel look then breakdown. Please note the volume on both especially within QQQ. This is a distribution day I expect if this stays in a downward trajectory to come and test the 6/28 gap fill or roughly the .618 Fibonacci. Keeping in mind the sell off was induced by Trumps tariffs on China. Tonight we’ll hear from the Chinese side. For bull case we need to reclaim the fed day low at 2958 and to show real strength from the bulls back through the fed day high of 3015. I’ve found that fed day ranges work very just like earnings ranges. If China trade escalation continues semis will be the most vulnerable.

That’s all I have for today I hope you were able to learn something as always thank you for stopping by.  

[jimmys-trading]

Worlds most disliked market

In this blog I’m going to dig a bit deeper into the over market as a whole. As the title says this rally to all time highs has been very much disliked by much of the big money, why? There are a few reasons. One being a lot of people missed out on the rally or a good chunk of it that occurred from Decembers low and now feel like their are chasing if they were to take more exposure. (graphic below further illustrates this)  

Second thing is this quarters earnings expectations has been lowered by an average of 3% EPS(earnings per share) . This clearly indicates a weaker expectation on earnings and slowing growth. Third is the ever looming trade war that seemed like things were escalating to now perhaps quite dormant and being pushed off for another 6 months like they have been doing further easing fears in the short term. I think it could be fair to say here that both sides want a deal but how much longer and when is anyone's guess certainty not anytime soon.

Conclusion: Many are looking at this market and saying something just doesn't add up, the economy is slowing , bonds, and a looming trade war, and gold starting to rally while stocks rise but as I always stress the feds policy is what is over all most important and that is what really is giving juice to this market. You could say people are confused and even the fed is considering how much they’ve changed their stance since December. Could this change of stance within the fed have more to do with Trump breathing down their necks to lower rates? probably. The only thing I can really stress is TRADE THE PRICE ACTION. As Paul Tudor Jones said people always try to rationalize why something should go up or down but by the time that reason becomes self evident they’ve already missed the move. I can speak from personal experience that this hold true, Mr market always know first. 

[jimmys-trading]

Understanding Gold breakout

Quickly going over how to use simple technical analysis to buy into this breakout of gold. Last week I posted a blog exactly how to spot these type of set ups. Now there are a few way to play gold via investment vehicles. I choose to use GDX (gold miners) as it was the leading and strongest among all gold stock and futures. When buying you always want to be long the strongest stock in the group and short the weakest stock in the group. I took short term weekly calls to take advantage of this breakout along with longer out calls in December to set myself up for the macro play.

GDX- Simple breakout on longer term chart in gold back in June. After we based here till finally breaking out of the tight price structure highlighted in the red box. The ideal spot then is to buy once you breakout of the box. When breakouts occur like this you ideally want more volume coming in than previous days to get the best confirmation. Other things in a trade you want that help greatly 

1) Knowing over all market direction is in your favor (whats the trend?)

 2) News events/ catalyst  

3) Good fundamentals

[jimmys-trading]

Finding the best stocks and market outlook

Hello,I’m briefly going to go over some stocks that I own or have been watch months give or take one or two. These are mainly names I only use common stock with compared to my options trading that utilizes mostly FANG stocks ect. But first little market outlook. 

ES- The market has broken out of a massive cup and handle. From a fundamental stand point I’ve stressed in the past monetary policy and how important it is to driving asset prices. Right now the Fed plans on lowering rates compared to back in December when they crashed the market with rate changes thus now assets are driving forward. Our economy is clearly slowing but the market is showing no signs of bearishness in the stock market. We have yet to see any distribution days in 2019 compared to 2018 leading up to December. When market come close to an end they get volatile and distribution happens know this.

Now onto my growth stocks/earnings movers. These stocks are some of the leading growth stocks in the market right now. They typically show where the market is headed before the overall market shows. These are the type of stocks that will produce meaningful returns unlike staying camped out in your GE stock. Below I’ll show you charts on how to find these monster movers. 

I know these are a lot but look at all of them, they all share the same look. Stocks hit new highs, base, then once they close above the previous high they explode shown by the pink horizontal trend lines. MCD chart also shows a cup and handle. Study these and it can help greatly. Technical analysis absolutely works and help greatly for investing and trading LEARN IT. (VEEV,TEAM, TTD, ZS, MCD, COUP, NFLX) tickers for the stocks I show above so you can get a better look compared to these low quality pictures. 

I would keep going on but these take awhile to make. So if you have any questions I’m willing to help anyone genuinely curious about trading and investing in general. Thank you for reading as always!

[jimmys-trading]

Stock market all time highs Netflix ready and more

Doing a quick little update during the session today on the current market structure. As title says market has broken all time highs on a low volume run up leaving many big funds in the dust. Going forward leaves big funds/money in a stiff spot to either chase the move or potentially miss a bigger move from this melt upward. The Federal reserve lowering the interest rates and reducing to no hikes through 2019 along with the white house activating the plunge protection team and calling all major bank ceos all point toward this rally and quite frankly manipulation by our own government and “free market”. At the end of the day though you must trade the tape and no get any bias which happen to many after December. 

ES- Created lower low yesterday and is playing very technically off levels. Interested to see how it reacts off the top daily bollinger band at around 2958 if through strong can move higher toward 3000

NFLX- All three show big picture. VERY close to breaking out big and has been consolidating since the start of the year. Closing above all 3 of these charts trend lines would be super bullish and would not be surprised to see 400 very soon. I like May 17 400 calls.

FB- Earning power play and currently in bull flag 196 200 key

Back to the charts for the rest of Fridays session here. Thanks for stopping and feel free to ask any questions through my page ask feature related to the market!

[jimmys-trading]

S&P 500 4 month high

As the trade wars continue on the market continues to chop sideways waiting for a catalyst ideally being a China trade deal. The fed has backed off on its hawk stance and is now being patient waiting for data. With that said I don’t think we’ll have any problems from the feds end in the short term until we get more data and FOMC dates. ( Next fomc are 3-19/20 and 4-30/5-1) I plan on blogging more macro problems and stats in another post as the numbers are very troubling in the United States and around the world. 

ES- As you can see from the title and this chart we’ve been stuck in this channel now for quite some time. As of today we inched just barely higher for the first time in 4 months. Ideally I would like to see a strong move on volume through the 2824 area for confirmation of this breakout. Until then its also possible we’ve just expanded the range a bit. The individuals names I’ll be detailing more below will show more in detail what needs to happen for this market to explode through this chop and back to a chance for all time highs. 

AMZN- This is pretty cut and dry. A break through 1709 sets up a move to the 200 day moving average (blue line) at roughly 1730 right now, I move through there brings us to 1778 fast. Staying between pink trend lines will be considered the do not trade/ chop zone. Under 1582 things can get really nasty to downside. 

NFLX- the fake out king has failed to breakout and close above 366.50 11 times no that is not a typo. This is simple we need a close over 366.50 if so I got 371 374 382 391 and it can move fast with all this momentum building. In the past this has been one of the market leaders and first to move so lets see if it will be the first again among tech. 

NVDA- Nice breakout today and one of the strongest of tech names past few days with volume coming in. I have 169 175 202 for upside and again can move very fast. Things to keep in mind is Nvda is acquiring Mellanox another world leading high performance computing company and Investors day is March 19th. Both good catalyst. 

With that all said you can see how close some of these names are to exploding with the market. Its very possible all of them run in tandem and will help the market run higher. Until you must be patient this is not a place to be in a hurry until we get confirmation. With that being said thanks for stopping by as always. 

-Jimmy 

[jimmys-trading]

Trade wars continue

Hi everyone its been awhile since I updated but I will make it a priority to do so more. It’s awesome coming back just for myself and seeing how things have changed with the market and my personal journey as a trader. Anyways since my last update on December 2nd absolutely nothing has changed in regards to the S&P500 and overall market. I noted that we needed a break and close above 2818 on $es to make an attempt at all time high again in which that next day it topped at 2814 and dived heavy the month of December on the news that the federal reserve was going to raise rates interest rates. Now they are changing tone to the dovish side which has saved markets since. On top of this the China trade war is still going and I personally do not think the US will get a deal. The USA pushed back tariffs that they were suppose to impose on March 1st making the US look very weak in China’s eyes. If I had to guess China kicks the can down the road till Trumps out of office. Regardless Trump will try his best to manipulate the market with the trade news. Overall I mentioned in previous posts about the macros problems in our economy right now and these will keep growing bigger and bigger until one day it all hits the fan like back in 08. The longer these debts and macro problems grow the bigger the bust will be. Look all around the world right now and take note what is happening in most major economy's.. Is our economy really that hot? Economic data coming in sure isn’t. Regardless we trade what the charts tell us and without bias but all these factors and more should be considered.

$ES- As I said above were exactly right back at my previous post. It now looks like its posting a quadruple top. 2818 super key pivot line we will not be in bull market mode again till be close strong above it period. As for now you must have patience and see how news and this chart plays out. 

I’ll see you all again next week

-Jimmy

[jimmys-trading]

The White house and Fed fold

Hello everyone what a big change of events in the past week. In last weeks post I was talking about the bear market continuing onward but the main reasons based upon the FED raising rates and the trade war. So what has changed this past week? The Federal reserve has now changed its tone on monetary policy saying we’re close to neutral rate when just one month ago they were forecasting for many more hike rates this is big change in tone. As I stated in last weeks post monetary policy plays one of the biggest roles if not the biggest in our economy and especially stocks. Next is this weekend the White house was able to come to an agreement to not push forward on any more tariffs as long as a final agreement can be made within 90 days. These two events take tons of pressure off the markets for at least the short term. The major problems such a cooperate debt and other debt problems still loom at a macro level but might now be over looked as we have these new market catalysts. Let me say this one last thing before I post market analysis. I am a short term/ Swing trader so I always change my opinion on whatever the market tells me I’m not married to one side like all long term investors.. this is what kills many in this game is there bias and stubbornness to change. I’ll cover this topic and more in another blog post but for now onto market analysis. 

ES- For those who don’t know this is just the ticker for futures of the s&p500 $SPY $SPX and $ES are all the same thing. As you can see we have started to double bottom on news of monetary policy and now this huge gap up you see on the new daily candle that just printed from the white house reaching an agreement on trade at the G20 conference. Going forward is simple we need to break and close over 2818 to move the market higher. If very possible now we rally into Christmas especially as shorts are about to get rolled and have to cover. There isn’t anymore to say than this so watch close to see how we react to this 2818 level. 

These are my positions I went into the weekend with. Overall favored to the long side hedged with put protection. Tomorrow should open nicely and will probably hold these calls for awhile as we rally. Remember the market is closed Wednesday for Bush’s observance. This is all I got for now, as always good luck trading and I’ll see you all next week for another blog. 

-Jimmy

[jimmys-trading]

Blow off top in the market

Hello to anyone that decides to even look at this. First thing I want to cover is my small account challenge. I ended up taking the profits from that account and moving it to my main account so I could focus more. Its been extremely hard to mange both for many reasons. With that I will be sharing my main account with everyone which started with $2,000. I plan on sharing the journey in a few months and I’ll go over everything that I did and the struggles that came with it. With that being said I want to talk a little about the market as I usually do in my past posts. 

SPX- Back on 9/11 my last blog post I noted that fangs were not looking right which have always been the market leaders. When market leaders start to drag its typically a very bad sign. (Pink Arrow) As we see now spx made a double top and has since gone down greatly almost erasing all of 2018′s gains. Why? Biggest thing of all interest rates they dictate stocks and the economy as a whole more than anything. When rates get raised stocks must account for this. Another big event weighting the market it down is trade wars with China. Who knows when this will get settled but do expect a bounce when it does. All eyes now will be on the Fed and there choices to raise rates or not as we go forward. Another thing I see as a possible issue is now that Democrats have won the house it will most likely be a stand still in D.C and to expect subpoenas from the house on the Russian investigation. Last but not least the trump tax plan that pumped this move in 2018 will soon begin to show its true colors.  

Cooperate debt is now at an all time high ( shown above), Consumer debt is at an all time high, and Student loans growing greatly. Not to mention that much of the economy is still recovering from the blow back in 2008. This all might sound very bearish but we are now in a bear market and the chances of reaching all time highs now is slimming greatly with HUGE gap fills below. Many big funds have been liquidating there positions since January and unloading on retail investors just watch the last 30 minutes of everyday. I can go on and on but we’ll have to see how things play out. I’d post my fangs but the SPX chart explains them all very well. As always thanks for stopping in and hearing me rant about the market I’ll try to start posting more regularly. Good luck trading the rest of the year and stay open minded!

-Jimmy

[jimmys-trading]

Climbing higher

Hello everyone is been a while since I last updated my blog but I’ll be getting back on track to posting at least once a week again. Today I’ve started a small account challenge with the exact amount of $640. I’ll be adding this at the end of each blog. I’m doing this to show people what you can do with small account and for the challenge in general. Also later this week I’ll be making a post sometime soon about general market psychological ect. and what I’ve learned so far through my trading career that helped me improve. NOW onto some charts.

S&p500-  First picture: Daily           Second: Weekly

Bigger picture beautiful breakout that we’ve been waiting for a possible retest in the works. Daily picture we’ve broke this downtrend today and we’ll see if we get follow through tomorrow. Need to have Moving averages cross back over (light blue/Dark blue lines) and stay above middle bollinger band. Also note StochRSI cross over on the bottom of the picture. Price targets in this zone shown in fib retracement lines. ***More important than all this is the NEWS especially tariff news. Trump was suppose to put a new tariff in effect but hasn’t followed through this week yet. This is the first time this has happened and it creates uncertainty and there is nothing more than the market hates than uncertainty. With that being said its best to play small till we can confirm a reversal.*

This is normally where I post about my beloved fang stocks but past few days I have no touched as charts are ugly. I’ll be observing a little more before I post plans. I will post other ideas I’m playing in the meantime. 

HD (Home Depot)- Charts pretty self explanatory. Text book cup and handle breakout targeting 215. I’m holding some further out options for a swing play. 

AMD- This has been on an absolute tear. Beautiful engulfing close today. Mainly looking for it to get strong through 30 once through can see 33. Macro look for the stock is great. 

CMG- Nice earnings move and pull back. Now in a great spot on daily with moving averages crossing each other. 495 next area we need to get through followed by 500. 

WIX- Base building here on weekly waiting to breakout. Will be taking position over 112.40. 

Small account starting amount: $640

DAY 1: 

  Todays trades for my small account... have CMG and AMD into tomorrow. I’ll look into presenting this better next week probably with google spreadsheet. That’s all I got for this week I’ve spent way too much time looking at charts today and writing this. I’ll see you all soon thanks for reading.

[jimmys-trading]

Day traders paradise

Hello everyone and welcome back to another weekly update. Again not too much has changed with market conditions as S&P500 continues to chop around. I’m very interested to see how /ES (s&p500 futures) moves throughout the 2 hour and 4 hour cloud. Right now the 2hr is providing heavy resistance which needs to be broken and continue with follow up through the 4 hour cloud. This is purely for the short term outlook as not much matter in the big picture till be break ATH. I’m not going to post a chart since its mostly the same as last week. One thing to keep in mind is the next two months (August/September) are historically not easy trading months. With that being said its best to play light and stay nimble especially after how amazing this year has already been for stocks. Lets get into our individual names now.  

Amazon - Following through from last weeks post Amazon has been absolutely explosive. This weekly chart here is a beautiful example of how powerful parabolic up trends are.... take some time and look at the monthly which is even better. My new plan for this week is looking for a break through 1925 and can see 1950 very fast. On the daily our 5ma is continuing to power upward further supporting our new short term price target. As long as we can hold 1898 I remain bullish. For a longer term look Amazon is eyeing 2000 and I don’t think it will be long before we see it. My end of the year price target is 2200. 

Google - Still chopping around in this zone. Last week tried to break through but was not successful. All that matter now is a strong break through 1266 and this thing can start going. Ideally we need to see our 5/10 ma’s starting moving upward together last weeks problem was the 5 was moving up while the 10 starting moving sideways/down. We should see both start to move up if we can get that strength through 1266. Once through we’ll be targeting ATH then 1300.

Apple - The markets first trillion dollar company is on a tear. Has been nicely digesting the earnings move. I’d like to see a close above 210 and get our 5 day ma to start moving up more sharply. Currently eyeing the 212-214 range for the next target. Warren Buffet again added more shares last quarter and the public always loves to follow so should be an interesting move to watch moving forward.

If you have any questions or comments feel free to ask by using the “ask Jimmy” tab on top. As always thanks for stopping by and reading .