just-future-thinking

[just-future-thinking]

Family Tree

14M - Great Apes

7M - bipedal

4M - Hominida

3.5M - stone tools

3M to 2M - Australopithecus to Habilis

2.5M - out of Africa

2M to 120k - Erectus to Ergaster

500k to 40k - Neanderthal/ Denisovan/Floresiensis/others

300k - Sapien

100k clothes

10k agriculture

(Sapien DNA contains Elements from all species post 300k)

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We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters

Peter Thiel

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Wasting Time

Productivity is for robots. Humans excel at wasting time, experimenting, playing, creating, and exploring.

Kelvin Kelly

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A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light but rather because it’s opponents eventually die and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.

Max Planck

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Reducing Human Damage

Reduce carbon emission and pollution

Reduce or reverse human population growth

Reduce the need for economic growth

Spread existing wealth more evenly globally

Stop putting humans first above other life-forms

Reduce conflict and globalise thinking

Use technology - AI, genetic modification, etc

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Carbon 13

The normal atmospheric carbon composition in our epic is roughly 99% carbon12 and 1% carbon13. Fossil fuel contains a much higher portion of carbon12. Long term measurements have found (1) temperatures are rising (2) the level of carbon in the atmosphere is rising (3) the proportion of carbon13 is dropping. This is perhaps the clearest link between humans and climate change.

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The Third Ice Cap

The worlds media keeps a close watch on the melting ice caps in the Arctic and Antarctic but the reality is the most destructive issues may come from the melting of the third ice cap - the Himalayas. 20% of humanity depend upon steady rivers of water from this icy safety valve which, if temperatures rise 2 degrees, will reduce by 60%. This will lead to mass flooding in the wet season and severe drought in the dry season, yet the major countries in the region, China and India, do nothing to reduce their own emissions.

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Charity

Reducing human suffering is an just cause - whether it is cancer research, starving children or the myriad of other feel-good charities. But when I think about it, no matter what you do or don’t support, the human population will still blow out to 10 billion in the next 50 to 75 years. We have plenty of humans but only 1 planet and fewer species each year. Our distant descendants will thank us for leaving them a decent home. Perhaps we need to redirect our priorities.

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Technological disruption

Apple displaced phone companies, Amazon displaced retail giants, Uber is displacing transport and Airbnb is displacing accomodation providers. Today’s largest companies have disrupted the giants grown over decades through the industrial era. Could these in turn be replaced in the next 50 years? It is hard to see how. New technologies are developing ... AI, 3D, Big Data, Quantum computing. But any advances in these are likely to be by, or bought by, Apple, FB, Google, MS etc. No new mega company will likely emerge. Perhaps in more distant advancements like genetic modification, longevity drugs or environmental reparation there is room for a new mega player?

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“History is transient, subject to mutation, manipulation and erasure - there is no contemporary evidence for the existence of Jesus Christ, arguably the most influential man in history. Even the gospels were written decades after his death, by people who never knew him, and have irreversibly mutated over time.”

AR

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Timescales

The Universe. 13.8BY

Earth. 4.5BY

Dinosaurs. 165MY

Homo species. 6MY

Homosapiens. 200,000Y

Civilisations. 6,000Y

Christianity. 2,000Y

Internet. 30Y

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We are just ephemeral vibrations, appearing and disappearing for no particular purpose.

YNH

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Our universe isn’t simply a hodgepodge of stuff doing random things; it’s a highly orderly and predictable evolution of fixed constituents of matter, an intricately choreographed dance of particles and forces.

Sean Carrol

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When we see the Earth from space, we see ourselves as a whole. We see the unity, and not the divisions. It is such a simple image with a compelling message; one planet, one human race.

S. Hawking