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[lol-jackles]

I love your musings on the movie industry and actresses. I am interested in your opinion about Tom Holland, if you know anything about him as an actor. I think he's going through a rough patch. A couple years ago he was the most successful and promising young actor. At this point, his career path is very questionable. Several failed projects, including his latest TV series, which he produced himself. Critics trashed him. And on the whole, they don't like him much. I attribute this to an inappropriate remark about Martin Scorsese. He wasn't rude or disrespectful, but still his words were taken by many in a bad light. Now he has returned to the theater. But judging by the record-breaking two hours of ticket sales, I think he's still loved by his fans. But I still don't understand why he's doing so badly with his projects. At the moment he has plans for another spider sequel, possibly uncharted 2 and a Fred Astaire biographical movie. And none of these projects have any definite shooting dates or even a nominally finished plot.

I've only seen a few of Tom Holland's non-Spiderman films and he seemed miscast in those, however, he still gave very good performances.  The great Christopher Lee once said, "Every actor has to make terrible films from time to time, but the trick is never to be terrible in them."

The great Kenneth Branagh directed and starred in the stinker Frankenstein featuring the great Robert Di Niro as the monster. Kennth was also the best thing about the Harry Potter movies as Professor Lovelock. Meryl Streep's performance was praised in Mama Mia for her energy and commitment, despite the overall critical reception of the movie. Denzel Washington pretty much made a career out of elevating projects from the depths of mediocrity into something approaching watchability, and sometimes, even quality.

Tom's current career trajectory reminds me of Michael J. Fox's dark, experimental phase as a traumatized solider and a drug addict mourning the death of his mother and marriage before returning to what he does best: funny everyman. If I was his manager, I would advise him to hire Channing Tatum's agent and take inspiration from Hugh Jackman and embrace his singing and dancing skills and natural comedic timing, so his Fred Astaire project is a good idea. Tom can still do drama and action that is silly and fun. Point Break is silly and also one of the greatest action movies of the 20th century, and it was one of the first clues that Keanu Reeve’s career trajectory is going to be less “Tiger Beat”, and more “walking away from explosions, looking directly at the camera”.

[lol-jackles]

Hi, how are you?

This post is more of a vent and some comparison between supernatural and Buffy the Vampire Slayer.

I was just listening to the "sacrifice" melody from the episode "The Gift" and I started to ramble a little.

If we put both series together I can see that Sam is the reflection of everything that Buffy is. That is to say, he would have basically become the character of Buffy if he did not have Dean in his life, if he were an only child, he would have a legacy to fulfill despite wanting the opposite but fulfilling exactly the destiny of the.

Now that I'm analyzing the series I see a lot of Buffy in the character of Sam, as if they were inspired by her to create him, which is great and maybe that's why he became my favorite character.

The entire journey that both characters take throughout their lives leads them to the same point, the sacrifice for their brother/sister. Both make the maximum expression of love they can, not for the world, but for the person they love, one has heaven as a reward and the other hell.

When you say that if the character was just Sam in the show, I firmly believe that the show would have been a success just the same.

Sorry for my English.

No worries your English is good. Like you I've always saw a strong parallel between Buffy Summers and Sam Winchester, and even though I've said that Supernatural with just Sam would work with some tweaking (X), it may not lasted 15 years without Dean. But nonetheless the show still could have been a success for five to seven seasons, like Buffy.

Even though Buffy has her Scooby gang, I’ve complained on my blog that they don’t actually listen to her when she needs emotional support.  The one who does give is her polarizing sister.  Buffy’s disgust and disappointment that her closest friends were unable to distinguish between her and Buffybot the sex robot was both hilarious and terribly sad. Fans have even called Buffy "whiny" for having opinions, occasionally being vulnerable, frightened and sad. It couldn’t possibly be because her friends repeatedly fuck her over, she was yanked out of heaven without her consent, she’s been burdened with huge responsibility, and she’s constantly taken for granted, right? She couldn’t possibly have any reason to be angry and to speak up about it.   Just like Sam.

After 22 years, Buffy the Vampire Slayer still holds up. Besides flipping the trope of a small blonde girl chasing after monsters instead of being chased by them, the show helped solidify the formula of season-long story arcs (X) along with stand-alone episodes.  Buffy was basically the precursor to the Golden Age of television; it was ahead of its time.

Buffy Summers and Sam Winchester...

After

[lol-jackles]

I'm sorry but this is going to sound dumb as soup.... Would you explain ratings? I understand demographics and viewers and I understand why live ratings are not so important. You've explained all that really clearly.

What I don't understand is the ratings swings up and down. When I watch a show I watch it all. I may miss an episode but I mainly just watch. The switch in demographics and viewers makes it seem that each week is a new audience!

Take walker, two weeks ago it's a .8 demographic, this week it's a .4. Next week no doubt it will be a .8 again. That means significant numbers of individual viewers come in and out each week. Who are they? I watch a series. That's how series are designed, they have season story arcs. Who are the dippers? Totally confused by, particularly, demographics and seemingly 100,000s of single episode viewers.

The easiest explanation for the back-and-forth demo jump is the viewers are playing catch up.  They missed the last episode due to life getting in the way or watching another show, hence the lower demo ratings so they catch up on their DVR and CW app, the latter rating is not publicized, and then watch the next week’s episode live.

This happens with all shows, where people catch up from reruns/dvds/streaming and then watch the later episodes live, especially the finale. The general consensus among broadcast network is viewing slows down considerably for after the first week (i.e. premier episodes) because much of the audience still tends to watch one episode before the next airs - even if they aren’t watching live.

The Live+Same Day ratings includes 24 hours of the viewer watching on their DVR or TiVo, so the best way to help the Live + demo rating is record and then play the DVR before midnight for maximum effect.

[lol-jackles]

Hi!!! Lovely seeing you post again!

Did you see that Jensen got casted in tracked? I’ve never see the show, and Jensen in it doesn’t help for me

Do you think it will be a repeat of Alec-Dean etc etc as always? Do you know if it will be a guest star or a recurring role?

Thank you friend. I'll be honest, I only saw the pilot episode and it didn't take with me. My girlfriend never saw This is Us so she wasn't into the lead character. We actually kind of forgot about Tracker until Jensen and Justin appeared on my dash.

ETA: At best it will be a recurring role. With Hollywood contraction, regular roles are being cut and lower tier actors have to take recurring salary while working hours of a regular.

[lol-jackles]

"I said in another post, never say never to the idea of Jensen scoring a guest star gig on Tracker."

Do you think Jensen is telling his people that they should accept guest roles in shows? What do you think of the recent announcement?

I sure hope so. Justin's announcement? It gives me the same vibe every time I hear the following generic make-nice small talk:

“We should catch up sometime.” Translation: I’m going to be really pissed off if you just randomly show up at my place unannounced.   "Wow, you must be so proud.” Translation: “You have an average child.”   “How was your weekend?” Translation: “Please just say 'good, thanks'.”  

[lol-jackles]

So it took 2 hours from Justin posting about JA to an actual "official article" being released. And even then it wasn't an official press release, it was just an article about Justin's post:

https://tvline.com/casting-news/tracker-season-1-cast-jensen-ackles-colter-shaw-brother-russell-1235223487/

I still think its weird that this is the way they are rolling out casting. I know it's a different show and network but even shows like L&O: SVU make official announcements for one ep guest spot castings when they are known names.

I admit I was a little surprise that CBS didn’t make an official casting announcement regarding their biggest hit of the season.  The first time could be chalked up to a mistake, but a second time?  Maybe CBS is still waiting to see if Tracker is a bonafide hit or will succumb to the sophomore slump in its second season. Or maybe the CBS marketing department haven't recovered since the layoffs in 2020 that saw the departure of their most experienced veterans credited for making CBS the most watched network (X). And the leadership crisis of CBS parent company, Paramount Global, isn't helping either.

[lol-jackles]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C6Mj2q-yRSI/

Is it weird that Justin is making all these casting announcements before the official announcements (at least as of the time I'm sending this Justin's post has been up for 30 mins and still no official announcement)? He did it for Melissa too (https://www.instagram.com/p/C5yzmypy-8I/) but her official articles came out withing a few minutes of him posting.

Link and link,

Haha for some reason I thought Jensen was madly typing away on an antique typewriter and then it showed he was actually playing an arcade game. Typewriters are making a comeback with Gen Z and even Gen Alpha (called the "typewriter revolution").

CBS likely told Justin to make the announcements, figuring it's the least expensive way to promote the show. I'm a little surprise because CBS are anti-star makers, but that may have changed ever since Leslie Moonves was forced out.

[lol-jackles]

What are the odds of an actual danneel ackles production even making it on air after her only show was a nepotism thing that crashed an burned? Close to zero?

The odds are not in her favor, as it's the case for all scripted shows even produced by A-list producers.

That said, I think Danneel wants to be a "working actor".  This way she gets first dibs on any projects Chaos Machine develops.

Last night's Walker was great, but it was made supreme by Cassie's and Cordell's "air quotes" argument.

[lol-jackles]

I have a question about licensing fee vs the cost of making an episode. I saw the deadline article on CW renewal speculation that the licensing fee for Walker is just over $500k per episode. I cannot imagine that covers the full cost of making an episode, so if that is the case, where does the rest of the money come from. Also is there a "standard" for setting the licensing fee (ie a % of cost per episode, or a % of anticipated revenue etc etc)

Thanks in advance!

First, don't confuse the license fee with the budget. 

Walker costs about $3.5 million per episode. Networks pay 50% of the show's budget so CW is paying $1.75 million per episode on top of the $500K license fee, plus the Austin grant of  $245,471 brings the total to $2.5 million. The remainder $1 million is financed by CBS studio and Rideback by selling license fees to foreign distributors, anywhere from 30 to 80 countries for a minimum of $100K per episode.

The bare minimum number of international license fees easily cover the entire cost to produce Walker, but you and I know that most of that money is going towards keeping the lights on at CBS studios as well as pay for new tv shows that have 98% chance of failing. Just like Supernatural financed many of your favorite CW shows, it also paid for plenty of WB studios' failed tv shows.  The then-WB network had spent at least $50 million on the 2005 pilot season and SPN was the only show to survive to season 5 to be syndicated.

I know most media says one-hour dramas cost $5 million per episode, but they actually cost $3.3 million.  I'm guessing the $5 million is the average due to sci-fi/fantasy/period dramas can cost up to $10 million per episode.  So Walker is not being produced on the cheap at $3.5 million, it's the norm. 

[lol-jackles]

Back in 2021, Danneel had mentioned in a podcast that CMP had optioned/bought rights to a young adult book that was a “gay Great Gatsby” to turn into a tv series. Do you think this is the project Jensen referred to as being sold?

No, its not this. The guy who talked about this (and then deleted) specifically said that he could talk about it only because the option had expired. He said the Ackles had kept him in the loop as they "hired writers and developed the pilot. Seemed like everything was on track until the pitch failed to sell. Bad timing with the WB changes they said." (direct quote from the tweet). These tweets were from Feb 2023 so that option expired over a year ago.

Thank you for the added information. Honestly this adaptation just sounds like the typical "woke" contents of the past decade with gender swaps and making the lead gay and making it for the "modern audience", literally. Half the charm of the original is the roaring 20s.

[lol-jackles]

Back in 2021, Danneel had mentioned in a podcast that CMP had optioned/bought rights to a young adult book that was a “gay Great Gatsby” to turn into a tv series.

Do you think this is the project Jensen referred to as being sold? It’s my understanding that most book options are only a year, and she mentioned this 2-3 years ago.

My guess that concept was already pitched and denied but maybe it took them this long to develop a teleplay for the book to pitch. Would they have to repay the author if their original option expired?

Link.

You are correct that book options usually only last a year so the show the Ackles sold is not likely the "gay Great Gatsby", especially with Amazon studios' own focus groups and test audiences having general aversions toward gay leads.

The author was already paid an upfront fee for selling option rights. If the studio buys the pitch, then the author gets paid an additional "purchase rights". If the studio does not buy the pitch, then the option rights are returned the author, and they can try to sell to another buyer.

With that said, it was never not funny how they tried to insert Danneel in to the $PNFamily brand and even had her provide commentary on the SPN dvd after appearing in just two unmemorable episodes.

Anyways, lets have a look at the last project that Danneel "worked" on. Side note, I unironically love the huge TV Guide cover of Jensen in the background during the promotion of The Winchesters.

[lol-jackles]

So if I read your explanation right, Jensen's wife sold the concept and got the right to make a pilot (not sold as what most of us industry outsiders assumed--eight or so episodes with a guaranteed platform from Amazon)? Because I know Amazon has money to burn, but even I wouldn't stake her that much after watching an almost foolproof IP being used to crash and burn.

Danneel is lucky that today's Hollywood is run by tech nerds who don’t understand show business.  It's the main reason why tv and film budgets exploded since the 90s. Amazon studios is the epitome of current day Hollywood.

[lol-jackles]

Sorry, can you explain to me what this means for Walker, as if I were five years old? Thank you.

deadline*com/2024/04/cw-canceled-renewed-all-american-homecoming-walker-status-1235889923/

Link.

This is a classic negotiation tactic.  Nexstar’s goal is to keep the cost of buying episodes low, and CBS studio's goal is to make Netstar pick up all the production cost in season 5.

During the first 4 years a show is given a minimal budget by the network and then the studio and production company have to pick up the overage costs. In year 5, the network has to pick up all cost. In year 6 the actors renegotiate their contracts for much higher pay, which the network has to pick up. This is why most successful TV shows usually have 6 or 7 seasons.

So Nexstar is trying to force CBS studio take the current low costs knowing CBS studio really, really want to reach year 5 so they can stick all the bills on Nexstar while CBS studio reaps profits on distribution rights.  Walker is in its 4th season and only needs 19 more episodes in season 5 to reach the magic syndication number of 88 (tho that number is not set in stone). 

Each side will leak stuff in a PR battle i.e. CBS studio threatening to pull Walker and put the show on its own streaming service, thus denying Nexstar/CW its highest viewed show, unless Nexstar agrees raise its licensing fee on top of picking up all the bill for season 5.

[lol-jackles]

If the CW cancels Walker, is it possible that CBS would take it on, seeing as it is produced by them?

Or do you think it's more likely that CBS would give Jared another holding deal?

CBS studio would likely continue to produce Walker and put it on its own streaming service to reach the number of episodes for syndication while reaping in profits from international distributions.

While I certain that CBS will offer another holding deal to Jared, now that Dan Lin in charge of Netflix films, the odds are in Jared's favor to have more options.

[lol-jackles]

https://www.tumblr.com/lol-jackles/748416895510855680/i-know-its-beens-awhile-but-what-did-you-think-of

Thank you so much for your breakdown of Season 15. Put in your words, there’s some really good stuff there. I just wish the execution wasn’t so godawful. It barely felt like the same show to me, and not even J2 were at their best at times, IMO. The Barn Scene and the Bridge Sceen were the best things to come out of the whole season acting-wise, again this is in my opinion.

Anyway. Thanks again for the breakdown.

Thank you and you're welcome friend.

Yeah the wonky execution brought most of season 15 down a notch or two. I was wondering if the editors were new. Great editors have saved so many mediocre scripts, just look at what Marcia Lucas did for the original Star Wars.  Directors don’t make the edit better. Show runners guide but it is the really good editors that create good products because they are a combination of good writers and good directors.  Honestly, editors never get enough credit when the end product is really good.

But I also think the biggest problem was the flipping of the relationship between Dean and the side characters.  It's the same reason why season 10 was awkward and unmemorable.  When you mess with the formula not even great editors can make it better.

[lol-jackles]

I know its beens awhile but what did you think of S15 as a whole?

As a whole I think season 15 was an above-average season due to below-average execution and ended with a stellar series finale that added rewatch value not just for season 15 but also all of 15 seasons.

Season 15 started and ended with callbacks to previous seasons; from season 1's woman in white and Sam's goal of returning to a normal life, to season 5's Dean's time in hell as Alastair's apprentice and bringing closure to Adam Milligan, to season 8's endgames for Sam and Dean.

The first half of the season 15 was about free will vs determinism, with Sam representing the former and Dean representing the latter.  Sam and Dean’s confrontation with God parallels how they've reacted to family and authority their entire lives: Sam challenged God’s Divine decree over His Creation while Dean accused God of abandoning His Creation.  When Abraham spoke with his heart and mind to God over His plan to destroy Sodom & Gomorrah, it led to Abraham transcending himself, leading the way for God, and becoming the father of faith. Metaphorically it's all about lessons in honest, meaningful relationships with our fellow human beings.   People often suppress their true selves and principles for the sake of avoiding conflict instead of taking the relationship a step further into a place of sincerity.   From season 11 to 14, Sam and Dean spoke their hearts and minds to God and the brothers' relationship became at its strongest, never wavering even when occasional arguments sprouts up because they were honest with each other.

Sam and God became connected through Sam's hope which manifested in their identical wounds. Secular-based hope is about anticipating something good to come in the future.  Sam has hope in a better future, so Chuck showed him a bleak future to make his lose that hope.  Once Sam lost his hope, God leaves.  That’s pretty much what happens to people in real life, when they lose hope, they feel there is no God or God abandoned them. Another physical manifestation of a bleak future is Dean's old friend who retired from hunting, Lee, who became so corrupted that Dean is forced to kill him.

The return of Sam and Dean's half-brother, Adam, brings welcome closure.  Adam is not out for revenge as he acknowledged his own culpability for agreeing to vessel-ship in the first place.  Him and Michael only having each other for 10 years in the Cage led to their codependent-symbiotic-ish relationship that parallels Sam and Dean to some extent.  

I like to call the second half of season 15 the "Dean redemption tour" where side characters were used to address Dean's unresolved issues in order for him to be good enough for Sam in their eternal afterlife. Normally whenever Dean interacted with side characters it is about the side characters, not Dean (see example here and here). But when the formula is reversed, it becomes a bit disjointed, and the audience picked up on it. The final redemption act target Dean's anger issues that both Amara and Chuck discussed.

Chuck: This is my ending.  My real ending. 

Very next scene: *Dean pulls a gun on Sam*

Dean’s been so obsessed with having free will that he’s actually following Chuck’s writing.  As usual Sam broke through to Dean, in effect breaking Chuck’s influence. Then a very mad mad Chuck shows up.

Chuck:  “Are you kidding me? After all that, you did it again!”

Then 15x18 happened. Ignoring the hilarity of that scene, the speech was supposed to remind the general audience that Dean is A HERO before he dies two episodes later. By 15x19, free will vs determinism comes to a conclusion.   Michael and Lucifer betrayed the Winchesters and succumb to determinism, fulfilling their destiny to destroy each other.  Sam and Dean manipulated Michael to lure Chuck into a trap to replace him with a new God, Jack. Chuck is left only with human frailties and for the first time Chuck has no idea what happens next, bringing the free will theme to a full circle.  

Due to interactions with Sam, Rowena became the new queen of Hell while Jack becomes the new God of Heaven. Jack promises Sam that He will have a hands-off approach and people don’t need to pray or sacrifice to Him. Jack’s perception of humanity is distilled down to, “When people have to be their best, they can be.” 

Before the story ends, the protagonist is supposed to accomplish their primary goal that had kept them driven and move the story forward.  Sam’s goal was attaining normal life, it was never about eradicating monsters to extinction or avenging his mother’s death.  In fiction it always seems like the main character want many things, but there is always a primary goal.  Harry Potter gets dragged into many subplots such as conflicts with his best friends, romantic misfires, and incidents with secondary characters, however his main goal was always to defeat Voldemort and that's what the audience is holding out to see.  Sam Winchester’s journey is flipped from Harry Potter’s; Sam gets dragged into many subplots of saving the world, defeating the Big Baddies, and conflicts with his brother, however his main goal was always to have a chance at a normal life. But this can't happen while Dean is still alive.

Dean has everything he wanted: Sam and hunting.  Dean is a complete person; he doesn’t need anything else. But Sam had given up just about everything so that Dean wouldn’t be alone. 15x16 reminded the audience that Sam wanted out of the hunting life since he was a child. Sure, Sam is very good at his job and even became a leader, but they always made sure to show that Sam doesn’t have passion for the family business other than saving people’s lives.  Claire Novak shows way more enthusiasm for the job. But Dean would never retire from the hunting life.  Even when Michael gave Dean a fantasy life, Dean still conjured up monsters so he can fight and kill them.  As long as Dean is alive, Sam will never be free to pursue a normal life.  Think back to Dean's speech in season 8 telling Sam to pursue his normal life only after Dean dies with a gun in his hand and a smile on his face.

The pivotal barn scene in the 15x20 finale was genius, bringing the series to full circle with callback to the pilot, fleshing it out, adding backstory to Dean’s pov that brings his fear, need, relief, and love to stark relief.  It hurt like hell, and at the same time, cathartic because Dean was honest.   The way Dean said, “Come here. Let me look at you. There he is!”  That’s Dean in dad mode, the parental figure to Sam.  The show reminded the audience in 15x18 that Dean raised his little brother.  Still in dad mode, Dean then tells Sam that he is proud of him.  It’s what every son wants to hear from their dad.

Dean then goes into brother mode and tells Sam he admires his strength even when they were children.  Sam’s strength is such that Dean was afraid that Sam doesn’t need him. Fearing rejection, he stood outside of Sam’s dorm for hours before finally going to Sam because it’s always been Sam and Dean, and Dean can’t comprehend if he didn’t have Sam. 

From there Dean gives Sam his blessing to keep living his life.  “I love you so much, my baby brother”. Sam’s reaction was pure and raw, he has always been honest about his wants and needs but craves Dean’s approval to pursue them, and now he has it.  Sam’s faith in Dean went answered with Dean saying how proud he is of Sam, how much he admired Sam’s strength so that Sam knows he is strong enough to go on living without Dean.  

Another reason why the barn scene is genius is the pilot callback sets up Sam and Dean’s reunion in New Heaven as pilot 2.0.  From there they will build their relationship just as Sam and Dean.  They are at peace without monsters disrupting their lives, without vindictive angels disrupting their afterlives, and without childhood angsts weighing them down.  They have both freedom and peace.

This applies to all of the hunters.  Jack’s New Heaven is like a retirement home for hunters where they can enjoy their peace and socialize with their friends and loved ones and even upgrade themselves to the people they were meant to be on earth.

[lol-jackles]

Apparently this happened at JiB:

https://x.com/raths_kitten/status/1782074641093169440?s=46&t=qI_y5glKgHOuwImP8CLepA

https://x.com/raths_kitten/status/1782075064743002153?s=46&t=qI_y5glKgHOuwImP8CLepA

What do you make of this and what does it mean in practice when you have "sold a show"? And who on earth is buying shows from Danneel Ackles?

Link. Link. Link.

Oh joy, it's The Winchesters 2.0 where Danneel will be in charge and Jensen is only around to be the name to attract investors but won't do any actual work.

This is how it works:

The Ackles optioned a story by paying upfront money to a creator, which could range from $500 to $10,000.

Now CMP has exclusive rights to develop proof-of-concept by producing a sizzle reel, a 30 second video. Think of the best movie trailers you've seen that caught your immediate attention and leaving you with wanting more.

CMP successfully sold the pitch to a network and then pays the creator a lump sum calls "purchase price" and metaphorically kick them over the wall because now the story belongs to CMP.

Next, the network or the studio or both will front the money to produce the pilot while CMP covers the overage cost. Then the network executives will get together to watch the pilot and if they like it then it will be shown to the test audience. If the pilot passes these tests, then the network gives the show a slot on their schedule and front the money for the first 4 to 6 episodes and then stall on payment while they check on ratings, so the production company(s) have to cover the budget.

Remember kids, projects from scripts to tv airing to surviving past the first season only has 2% chance of succeeding. As much as people like to make fun of CW shows back in the superhero glory days, those shows have beaten the odds and launched many acting careers.