#300k points for that damn memory card in the event

[bbnibini]

I am personally a supporter of the Solomon being "a tease but also a blushing mess" agenda. I love the idea of him being relentlessly, purposefully obnoxious and downright annoying to the person he loves(please notice him :'( ) but the moment you reciprocate. The moment you respond in affection. In praise. In a kind word, this man SHUTS DOWN. Solomon.exe has stopped. His face is red. Because what is love? What is kindness? What is this foreign emotion he isn't used to? And why does it feel like his face is burning?

Alas, he only loses his guard for a moment. Stares at you in wonder, but the wisdom he was "blessed" with trained his expressions enough to make those heart-stopping moments last only a few seconds in your eyes(almost as if you had only imagined it), and he's back to his exasperating, teasing and light-hearted self again.

[elsecrytt]

Devil Day Pop Quiz [Math + Venting]

emotionally damaged by how the pop quiz rewards work. it's loot boxes. it's basically fucking loot boxes. tons of rng. it's completely possible to get just items as rewards and never actually get ANY cards. basically, each box has 250 items in it. you spend 500 pop quiz points to randomly unlock ONE item. So effectively in order to guarantee finishing a loot box, you need 500*250 points - 125,000 points. 125k points, FOR ONE BOX. Typically the demon SSR (Simeon's surprise, in this instance) has been available at 100k points - about the number of points a f2p player can obtain throughout the ENTIRE event. Now, this system DOES mean that it is theoretically possible for a lucky player to get everything with very few points. If your luck is exceptional, you can finish a box early... or if not, you will have to spend close to the entire 125k to finish the entire box. Certain items are only present in certain loot boxes, including the UR cards. The SSR is in the first box, then an SSR Voucher in the second, the memory UR in the third, and the demon UR (the dia card) in the fourth. And finally there is a UR Voucher in the fifth box. To get the demon UR for certain, you will need 125,000*4 points. 500,000 points. For the Dia UR. Yes, this is the worst case scenario of luck. However, each loot box you open, your chance of getting the correct item is 1/250. That's .004%. The odds of getting a UR from the current nightmare are .5%, or OVER 100 TIMES HIGHER. The above is something I said in the original post, and it's not correct math!!! Very sorry to have spread misinformation like that, I was tired and unhappy, wasn't checking my work. Your odds are 1 in 250 - that's true. And 1/250 = .004 However, when you calculate percentages, you don't just take that decimal number from the division. If your odds are 1 in 100, they should be 1%. 1/100 = .01 Therefore, your odds of getting the item you want ON YOUR FIRST ROLL (this is a very important point I'll elaborate on in a different post) are .4% So you are more likely to get a UR card in your nightmare, but not as much as my hack job fever dream math made it out to be. Just to give you a perspective on the mathematics behind this. I've taken plenty of math classes but it's been a while and I am not at all well versed in gatcha, so anyone with greater knowledge feel free to enlighten me lol. (ty for the person in the replies who corrected me <3) normally, a f2p player with a little foresight (some D-energies and diligence in unlocking everything) can get 100k points, netting them the demon SSR. and if you ARE willing to spend some money - on extra battles, or on cheat cards from the respective nightmare - then you can feasibly get the memory/demon UR without breaking the bank entirely. Usually, it's around 300k points. this pop quiz? it's loot boxes. it's just fucking loot boxes. just what this game needed, right? even MORE rng, to make it so that even IF you were to spend over a hundred dollars on this damn mobile otome, you could come out with literally nothing to show for it, because you got unlucky with the boxes. it's rough, really rough. i'm not f2p and i've never really been - i can't IMAGINE how f2p players must be feeling about the pq Dia and Luci URs. anyways, hope that was informative to some, I just had to get some of that off of my chest and all. NOW I WILL ADD A NOTE. The current pop quiz isn't complete, and the pop quiz will, supposedly, run for 20 days. This means the total number of points that even a f2p player can get should be much higher than 100k. A lot depends on how many chapters will be in part 2 of the second pop quiz, and other information we'll only really get once the second part launches. What's important to remember also is that the rewards for part 1 and part 2 use the same points, but, to my knowledge, they cannot be mixed and matched. If you get through box 1 and 2 for part A, and move on to part B, you still have to get through box 1 and 2 of

part B.

[thesportssoundoff]

“Two title fights, a #1 contender fight and a whole lot more fun” The UFC 231 Preview

Joey

December 4th, 2018

It's December! Ya know what that means? Max Holloway is fighting! Max Holloway is fighting on his fourth straight December card and thank GOD he's making the walk for this one because it's a dandy. The UFC heads to Toronto with what is ultimately a decent step down from their last three December Holloway related events but a god damn good card overall.  We've got two title fights, one long overdue and one we never knew we wanted until like a few months ago, and a plethora of really strong action fights and Canadian middle management fighters to round it all out. This card really does miss a great #3 fight (like Moicano vs anybody really) but beggars can't be choosers really. You have some important action fights at bantamweight, lightweight and featherweight outside of the two big fights AND THIAGO SANTOS IS BACK! If that doesn't have your heart skipping beats then I don't know what will. It's not UFC 232 or 233 but it's good and let's enjoy it, right?

Fights: 13

Debuts: Jesse Ronson

Fight Changes/Injury Cancellations: 2 (Renato Moicano vs Chad Mendes CANCELLED/ John Makdessi OUT, Jesse Ronson IN vs Carlos Diego Ferreira)

Headliners (fighters who have either main evented or co-main evented shows in the UFC): 11 (Max Holloway, Brian Ortega, Valentina Shevchenko, Joanna Contender, Thiago Santos, Jimi Manuwa, Eryk Anders, Gunnar Nelson, Cowboy Oliveira, Claudia Gadelha, Jessica Eye)

Fighters On Losing Streaks in the UFC: 3 (Jimi Manuwa, Matthew Lopez, Dhiego Lima)

Fighters On Winning Streaks in the UFC: 8 (Thiago Santos, Max Holloway, Brian Ortega, Nina Ansaroff, Carlos Diego Ferreira, Kaitlyn Chookagian, Elias Theodorou, Aleksandar Rakic)

Main Card Record Since Jan 1st 2016 (in the UFC):  35-16-1

Max Holloway- 3-0 Brian Ortega- 5-0 Valentina Shevchenko- 3-2 Joanna Contender- 4-2 Cowboy Oliveira- 6-2-1 Gunnar Nelson- 2-1 Hakeem Dawodu- 1-1 Kyle Bochniak- 2-3 Thiago Santos- 7-3 Jimi Manuwa- 2-2

Divisional Breakdown:

Featherweight- 2 Welterweight- 2 Women's Flyweight- 2 Lightweight- 2 Light Heavyweight- 2 Bantamweight- 1 Middleweight- 1 Strawweight- 1

Too High Up- Kyle Bochniak vs Hakeem Dawodu

I don't think this fight was originally scheduled for the main card and then it got the bump up when Moicano/Bektic fell out. It's not the WORST fight to get bumped up because of the majority of the dudes on the prelim slate, very few of them are prospects and most are just established names and keepsakes for their respective divisions. Bochniak is very much riding the Zhabit fight buzz right now which is good for him and I guess I'm glad the UFC is giving Dawodu that PPV rub. THAT SAID/having said that, maybe another women's fight on the main card could've been a better allocation of resources. No, the fight will probably not be as exciting but Gadelha vs Ansaroff could theoretically be a fight where the winner draws a Tatiana Suarez or one of the other names in the division (Waterson, Felice Herrig, Calvillo if something happens to Courtney Casey). I'd even be okay with Aleksandar Rakic (one of the genuinely intriguing 205 lb European prospects) vs Devin Clark getting the call up. Either way, I'm not mad about this fight being on the main card BUT it could be better.

Too Low- Devin Clark vs Aleksandar Rakic

Let's go back here right quick. Even if you don't move Esparza vs Ansaroff, it's a perfectly accepted prelim headliner. It may not have a finish in it (I think Ansaroff and Esparza have one UFC finish combined) but it's got some name value, it's good compelling matchmaking and I think everybody will be fine with it in this spot when all is said and done. Devin Clark vs Alexander Rakic is the third fight on the Fight Pass prelims. It's somehow below Brad Katona (off TUF undefeated) and Matthew Lopez (loser of two straight and owner of a 2-3 record in the UFC). It's below a really blegh fight between Elias Theodorou and Eryk Anders and even Olivier Aubin Mercier vs . AT THE RISK of being mean, it's even behind Jessica Eye vs Kaitlyn Chookagian which is absolutely positively going to be a fifteen round sparring session given Chookagian's style and Eye's propensity to brainfart in the face of anybody who can comfortably strike with her. Kind of not a fan of this burial of the fight given that Clark is a competent (if somewhat frustrating) fighter and Aleksandar Rakic just dominated Justin Ledet without too much trouble. Let's do better, UFC.

Stat Monitor for 2018:

Debuting Fighters (Current number: 38-41-1): Jesse Ronson

Short Notice Fighters (Current number: 32-33):  Jesse Ronson

Second Fight (Current number: 42- 36-1): Brad Katona

Cage Corrosion (Current number: 22-37):  Max Holloway, Gunnar Nelson

Undefeated Fighters (Current number: 35-24-1):  Brad Katona, Brian Ortega

Keeping An Eye On But Not Really; Fighters with at least four fights in the UFC with 0 wins over competition still in the organization: Matthew Lopez

Twelve Precarious Ponderings

1- What is a fair buyrate expectation for this card? Let's start with the positives! Brian Ortega vs Max Holloway is the sort of fight that should not require the booker of the year award to sell. It's two compelling unique characters, dominant in their own ways and in their own base styles, from two unique backgrounds facing off. Both are on long long winning streaks in the UFC, Ortega is undefeated and Holloway has finished the greatest FW of all time twice. There's not a lot of trash talk but both guys are very clearly talking and trying to promote this fight within what they can say. Ortega has been a high profile fighter on a number of occasions and Holloway is headlining his third straight PPV. Now the negatives! Jim Cornette has a saying that I want to borrow for this one; Hurting your audience's feelings. Jim uses that sometimes to describe bad booking decisions which seem to have lasting damaging effects on business, scaring off fans and leaving them downright pissed off at what they got. Holloway pulled out of a March booking with Khabib Nurmagomedov due to a massive weight cut and nobody seemed to get too mad about it. Holloway a) tried to save the card and b) was up a weight class AND ON HIS COUCH when he got the call. The July one is a little bit more messy as Holloway pulled out AGAIN under vague circumstances as concussion symptoms turned to allegations that he had a seizure turned to rumors of water overloading to what is now rumored to be some sort of Vegas drugging. Holloway's done it twice now and despite being a warrior and  super consistent durable fighter, even I'm of the belief that I'll believe Max when he's in the cage and the door's locked. Brian Ortega isn't innocent either here although his problem is a more subjective one. Ortega had the chance to fight some guys on short notice in July for an interim title. He turned it down. There were a few problems with that for fans; 1) Ortega got HIS big break through a short notice fight where Frankie Edgar stayed on the card to face Ortega as a fill in, 2) he didn't seem the least bit remorseful about it which hurt the feelings of fans who paid big money to see him vs Holloway. FOR the record, if I were Ortega, I would've done what he did---but the right decision is often the wrong decision. When you do something good, the memory is short but be the guy (Jon Jones) who totally lets them down in their eyes then they remember it. The customer is always right even when they're wrong and we see that all the time in the UFC. This may be a fight between the guy who has twice dropped out of PPVs vs the guy who turned down an easy opponent on short notice to stay on the card.

So what IS the buyrate for this? In a just world, Ortega vs Holloway as headliners would do great and with a proven back up draw in Joanna trying to become a two division champion, the buyrate would be very solid. That said, we don't know if the UFC audience had its feelings hurt. There's also the old adage I was always told about December PPVs; if you go before Christmas, you're competing to get people to spend money they have earmarked for presents. If you go AFTER Christmas, you have a shot to get a boost from folks who just GOT spending money from the holidays. Go too far into January and you'll catch them around tax time. Holloway's two December PPVs did what I think we can consider to be the UFC baseline (215K for Pettis, 210 to 220K for Aldo II)  and Ortega is a first time PPV headliner. I wonder if the hope is to touch 300K but the reality is that anything over 200K should be fine. Let's see how hurt some feelings were.

2- It could just be recency bias but I can't help but shake the feeling this fight has some Fury/Wilder to it. Max Holloway, like Tyson Fury, can do everything absolutely right for 24 minutes. He can move perfectly, make Ortega pay for coming in sloppy, take him down when he's over aggressive on his plant foot and make Ortega's life miserable with body shots. The problem is that Ortega, like Wilder, has an equalizer that any given time can come into play. Ortega just has this freakish knack to fight with an inevitability; at some point you WILL make a mistake and when you do, it's over. One bad takedown attempt when you're under pressure? He's got your neck. Game over. Get a bit lazy in top control? Triangle. Game over. Even on the feet Ortega is really underrated (or was pre-Edgar) in how crisp he was not just with his knees and elbows but with his hands. Ortega brutalized Moicano with body work, slowing him down and pressuring him until Moicano panicked into a guillotine. He made Clay Guida miserable going for takedowns with crisp work on the feet and then when Clay was tired and falling behind, Ortega finished him with knees. Frankie Edgar made one slip up  on the feet and it was over. Ortega fights with like a man who is so confident in himself and so confident that he IS going to win that nothing you do can bother him or deter him. Holloway basically has to fight a perfect fight for 25 minutes whereas Ortega needs ONE opening across five rounds to end this.

3- Can Holloway get Ortega's respect enough to stop the pressure?  Holloway can fight going both ways whereas Ortega has at times struggled if he has to fight in reverse.

4- Max Holloway has developed into a pretty competent wrestler since McGregor bullied him on the ground and in large part, Holloway's wrestling is his secret weapon. If it's the path of least resistance and he can avoid getting caught with something stupid, he has zero problems taking dudes down. He controlled Jeremy Stephens on the ground and made Clay Collard wilt under relenting top control and back mount pressure through his wrestling. Thiago Tavares and Diego Brandao moons ago took Ortega down. I'm just not sure if Holloway wants to play that game.

5- So anybody more confident that we get Ortega vs Holloway happening than they are Valentina vs Joanna? Feels like we're about to get set up for another snafu.

6- The UFC's welterweight division has come a long way since Gunnar Nelson last fight. Colby Covington, Darren Till, Kamaru Usman, Rafael Dos Anjos, Elizeu Zaleski, Santiago Ponzinibbio and others have all basically taken steps up while Nelson has bee away. Gunnar USED to be the new hot act in town, aided by how uniquely calm he was and his relationship with Conor McGregor. Losses to Rick Story, Demian Maia and a finish vs Ponzinibbio  (although it may have been somewhat controversial) have clearly put a cap on Nelson's potential BUT he is just 30 years old, good on the feet when he can operate at range and a fluid grappler. Cowboy Oliveira's struggles primarily have been against squirrely grappler types (a third round sub vs Gilbert Burns and a panic triangle loss to Cowboy Cerrone are his more serious blemishes) and so I can absolutely see Nelson spamming takedowns until Oliveira either stops him or makes a mistake, gets his back taken and gets submitted. Either way this is a great fight and a great test to see what Nelson's got.

7- WHY is Gilbert Burns being allowed to cut to 155 lbs again? He was pulled from a fight with OAM before due to concerns about the massive weight cut and then when he lost to Dan Hooker, Hooker (a dude who went up from 145 lbs to 155 lbs) basically said the only reason he got the knockout was because Burns had cut so much weight to get to 155 lbs that his punch resistance was cooked. Seems risky and all around stupid for the UFC AND Burns to do this at 155 lbs.

8- So what IS Thiago Santos at 205 lbs? We're in the midst of watching Anthony Smith run up the UFC light heavyweight rankings and Santos iced him pretty easily all things considered. Santos, like Smith, is an all action fighter who is defensively flawed but blessed with unique offensive gifts. If we were to compare them; Smith is younger, more athletic and maybe a bit more aware defensively while Santos wrestles better, hits a hell of a lot harder and lives up the mantra of a man who has a fucking hammer tattooed to his chest. Smith's first fight at 205 was a cooked Rashad Evans while Santos' welcoming challenge was a short notice 185er in Eryk Anders. Manuwa hits really hard and will be desperate off of two losses, painting the picture that there just may be some risk for Santos in this fight. I'm still betting he fights like said risk doesn't exist.

9- Hard pass on Anders vs Elias Theodorou. The hardest of passes.

10- Can Jessica Eye FINALLY get the title shot she's been chasing with a win over Kaitlyn Chookagian? Twice Eye has been in the driver seat for a big fight and twice she's been knocked back, the first a close loss to Alexis Davis and the second a thrashing at the hands of Miesha Tate. Chookagian is the sort of fighter who doesn't possess the big size difference Davis had or the ability to make Eye pay for her repeated mistakes like Tate did. She's a good kickboxer with zero pop, great TDD and a desire to stay on the outside. If Eye can't do it here then she's never going to be able to do it.

11- Can Nina Ansaroff hurt Claudia Gadelha? I think Gadelha is officially at the breaking point of her durability and Ansaroff does have power even if she uses it so seldolmly.

12- IF Holloway beats Ortega, can we FINALLY put him in the running for GOAT?