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watchilove · 4 years

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Jaeger-LeCoultre and MR PORTER are pleased to announce the launch of the Master Ultra Thin KINGSMAN Knife watch, a limited edition of 100 timepieces, specially adapted for The King’s Man, the upcoming Kingsman origins film directed by Matthew Vaughn. The Jaeger-LeCoultre Master Ultra Thin Kingsman Knife watch will be offered exclusively on MR PORTER, as a key part of The King’s Man ‘costume to collection’, from July 20th to September 6th. After that date, the watch will also be available directly from Jaeger-LeCoultre online and in selected boutiques.

The newest film in the Kingsman series links past and present, going back 100 years to the origins of the Kingsman agency. So too has Jaeger-LeCoultre drawn upon its great historic mastery of ultra thin calibres to develop a new timepiece directly inspired by the celebrated 1907 ‘Couteau’ (couteau is French for knife) pocket watch. The Master Ultra Thin Kingsman Knife watch is a refined dress watch that blends tradition and modernity in a manner perfectly suited to both The King’s Man and to contemporary style.

Calibre 145 knife pocket watch

The aesthetic roots of the new watch are unmistakably those of Jaeger-LeCoultre’s traditional pocket watches: the very broad bezel slopes gently from the sapphire crystal to the edge of the case, creating a fine profile reminiscent of a knife blade and the winding crown, protected by its triangular bow, is placed at 12 o’clock. However, these timeless and traditional elements are brought right up to date with subtly modern details: simple index hour markers keep the dial refined and clean, while a finely drawn ring is repeated as a circular highlight on the bezel.

Presented in a classically elegant 40mm size, the pink gold case is just 4.25mm thick. The ultra thin case houses Jaeger-LeCoultre’s celebrated hand-wound calibre 849. At just 1.85 millimetres thick, the movement underlines La Grande Maison’s century-old mastery of this demanding form of Haute Horlogerie: ultra thin movements require a perfect ratio between thinness and solidity, to ensure that components retain sufficient strength to ensure reliable timekeeping.

Jaeger-LeCoultre’s hand-wound calibre 849

In tribute to the film’s narrative, the case-back of the Jaeger-LeCoultre Master Ultra Thin Kingsman Knife watch has been engraved with the Kingsman logo, as well as the legend “One of 100”, and is presented in a specially designed Kingsman sleeve box.

In an eloquent expression of the Kingsman maxim ‘Manners Maketh Man’, the Master Ultra Thin Knife is the perfect gentleman’s timepiece; not only functional but supremely elegant.

‘Our Manufacture is proud of its heritage which drives the creativity of our master watchmaking since 1833. We are delighted to partner with Matthew Vaughn and Mr Porter to unveil a unique timepiece celebrating the elegance pioneering spirit. The thinness of this watch, inspired from a pocket-watch with a knife shape from 1907 is illustrating the skills and creativity of our fully integrated Manufacture. It represents the spirit of times with timepieces passed from generation to generation’ – Ms Catherine Renier, CEO, Jaeger-LeCoultre

‘We at MR PORTER are thrilled to be working with Matthew Vaughn and the Jaeger-LeCoultre team to exclusively launch the limited-edition Jaeger-LeCoultre Master Ultra Thin Kingsman Knife, in advance of the global release of The King’s Man later this year. The watch has a strong heritage styling coupled with being limited to only 100 pieces and will sure to be received extremely well with our growing global watch community’ – Mr Sam Kershaw, Buying Director, MR PORTER

About The KING’S MAN / 20th CENTURY STUDIOS

As a collection of history’s worst tyrants and criminal masterminds gather to plot a war to wipe out millions, one man must race against time to stop them. Discover the origins of the very first independent intelligence agency in “The King’s Man.”

“The King’s Man” is directed by Matthew Vaughn and stars Ralph Fiennes, Gemma Arterton, Rhys Ifans, Matthew Goode, Tom Hollander, Harris Dickinson, Daniel Brühl, with Djimon Hounsou, and Charles Dance.

Matthew Vaughn, David Reid and Adam Bohling are the producers, and Mark Millar, Dave Gibbons, Stephen Marks, Claudia Vaughn and Ralph Fiennes serve as executive producers. “The King’s Man” is based on the comic book “The Secret Service” by Mark Millar and Dave Gibbons, and the story is by Matthew Vaughn and the screenplay is by Matthew Vaughn & Karl Gajdusek. “The King’s Man” opens in U.S. theaters on September 18, 2020.

Image credits MR Porter

About MARV Studios & MATTHEW VAUGHN

MARV Studios is the production company of leading British filmmaker Matthew Vaughn, who specialises in genre-redefining films. His films have garnered over $2.6 billion at the global box office, making him one of Britain’s most successful and critically acclaimed independent filmmakers.

Vaughn began his career as producer with Guy Ritchie’s Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels and Snatch, which starred Brad Pitt and received wide critical acclaim. Through his production company MARV, Vaughn debuted as a director with the crime thriller Layer Cake, which starred Daniel Craig and introduced his signature style to audiences.

Image credits MR Porter

Vaughn followed that up by directing, producing and co-writing with his writing partner Jane Goldman, Stardust, which starred Robert De Niro and Michelle Pfeiffer. In 2009, Vaughn produced action-thriller Harry Brown, which starred Michael Caine. 2010 saw Vaughn producing and co-writing The Debt, which starred Helen Mirren and Sam Worthington, and directing, producing and co-writing Kick-Ass, the first in the edgy franchise with a breakout performance from Chloë Grace Moretz. In 2011 Vaughn co-wrote and directed the 20th Century Fox prequel X-Men: First Class, a massive box office and critical hit which re-invigorated the popular series. He continued his involvement in the series by co-writing 2014’s X-Men: Days of Future Past.

2014 also saw the debut of the global blockbuster Kingsman series, beginning with Kingsman: The Secret Service, written and directed by Vaughn, and its follow-up Kingsman: The Golden Circle in September 2017. The prequel to the franchise, The King’s Man, boasting an all-star cast, will be released in September 2020.

In 2019 MARV and Rocket Pictures released Rocketman, a critically-acclaimed musical fantasy based on the life of Elton John, directed by Dexter Fletcher and starring Taron Egerton in a Golden Globe® winning and BAFTA nominated performance.

Image credits MR Porter

About JAEGER-LECOULTRE: HOME OF FINE WATCHMAKING SINCE 1833

Located in the calm, serene setting in the Vallée de Joux, our Home offers a unique sense of belonging. It is here, inspired by the exceptional landscapes of the Jura Mountains, guided by an unquenchable inner fire, that La Grande Maison gets its soul. With all crafts under one roof within the Manufacture, watchmakers, engineers, designers, artisans work together to give birth to fine watchmaking creations. Driven by a compelling energy and a spirit of collective invention that daily inspires the commitment of each and every member of our family, we cultivate our understated sophistication and technical creativity. This same spirit has powered the creation of more than 1200 calibres since 1833 and made Jaeger-LeCoultre the Watchmaker’s Watchmaker.

Credits to MR Porter

About MR PORTER

Since launching in February 2011, MR PORTER has established itself as the world’s leading, award-winning online destination for men’s style, with an unparalleled product offering from the best menswear and luxury brands, including categories that range from fine watches and lifestyle through to own labels Mr P. and Kingsman.

MR PORTER produces unmatched digital and printed content across its shoppable online magazine, The Journal, and its bi-monthly newspaper, The MR PORTER Post. In 2019, MR PORTER founded MR PORTER Health In Mind, a content and fundraising initiative in partnership with Movember, developed to raise awareness around men’s mental and physical health.

MR PORTER offers express worldwide shipping to more than 180 countries, including same-day delivery to New York, London and Milan, while providing a seamless shopping experience across mobile, tablet and desktop, with easy returns and multi-lingual customer care and personal-shopping teams who are available 24/7, 365 days a year.

Image credits MR Porter

MR PORTER is a part of the YOOX NET-A-PORTER Group – the world leader in online luxury and fashion that comprises a complete luxury retail ecosystem. The Group sells directly to customers globally through its own family of multi-brand online shops NET-A-PORTER, MR PORTER, YOOX and THE OUTNET. The Group’s Online Flagship Stores division partners with many leading luxury brands to power their own e-commerce destinations. The Group has more than 4.3 million high-spending active customers globally. As pioneers in bringing together the realms of technology and luxury, YOOX NET-A-PORTER satisfies the most discerning clientele with expertly curated products from the best luxury brands, personalised end-to-end service, the latest technology and inspiring content, all shaped by 20 years of insights into the modern luxury shopper.

For more information about MR PORTER and the YOOX NET-A-PORTER Group, visit www.mrporter.com and www.ynap.com.

Instagram: @mrporterlive / Facebook: mrporterlive / Twitter: @MRPORTERLIVE / YouTube: MRPORTER

Jaeger-LeCoultre Master Ultra Thin Kingsman Knife watch Technical Specification

Movement

Swiss-made calibre 849

hand-wound movement

35-hour power reserve

19 jewels,

21,600 Vph

Functions

hour and minute hands

Dial

off-white dial

black numerals and indices,

blued hands

Case

18-karat rose gold case

diameter: 40mm

case thickness: 4.25mm

crown for time adjustments and manual winding

sapphire glass crystal

engraved case back

pin buckle-fastening brown alligator strap

Specifications

Water resistance: 3 bar

Comes in a presentation box

Alligator: USA

This piece has been certified in accordance with the Hallmarking Act 1973

MR PORTER is a certified member of the Responsible Jewellery Council

Reference number: 3402393

Made in Switzerland

Calibre 145 knife pocket watch

Jaeger-LeCoultre’s hand-wound calibre 849

Image credits MR Porter

Jaeger-LeCoultre and MR PORTER introduce the Master Ultra Thin Kingsman Knife Watch Jaeger-LeCoultre and MR PORTER are pleased to announce the launch of the Master Ultra Thin KINGSMAN Knife watch…

#Jaeger-LeCoultre #Jaeger-LeCoultre Master Ultra Thin #Jaeger-LeCoultre Master Ultra Thin Kingsman Knife watch #Kingsman #Kingsman Knife watch #Knife watch #Master Ultra Thin #Master Ultra Thin Kingsman Knife Watch #Mr Porter #news #Press release

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topfygad · 5 years

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Travelmag – Arizona beckons on the ‘Go John’ trail

There are 50 states in the United States of America. I have visited all 50 but Arizona remains a favourite after nearly 50 years of travelling. In 2012, Arizona celebrated their centennial anniversary. It was one hundred years ago that president William Howard Taft proclaimed the territory America’s 48th state. It was only fitting that we should travel there to explore the past, present and future of this amazing, young state. The colourful stories of the people who shaped Arizona are varied and numerous and the breathtaking landscape pre-dates statehood by several million years.

As fact turned to folklore the town of Tombstone’s fascination with the Earp brothers and the OK Corral spawned the birth of Arizona’s movie industry. The Western as a cinematic icon in the forties and fifties graced many Arizona landscapes with the likes of John Wayne and Clint Eastwood.

Arizona is living history and culture and I was so pleased that we were going to see it in its centennial year and with our dear friends Karen and Murray. Murray is a high school friend of mine that I have known for over 50 years now. We were doing this trip with him and his wife Karen. It was going to be something special – a rerun, in part, of our trip in 1971. That trip has been chronicled in our book “Then There Was One-The Ultimate 70’s Road Trip.” No camping this time though. I have known Dave for the same amount of time. He and his wife Christy had recently purchased a retirement home in Peoria, Arizona. A visit with them was the spearhead of this trip and the reason we were there.

In 1974 Canadian singer/songwriter Gordon Lightfoot sang, “Carefree Highway, let me slip away, slip away on you”. Located in the town of Cave Creek, just 1.5 miles north of the Carefree Highway, Cave Creek Regional Park is just about a 45 minute drive from Dave and Christy’s house. I thought the White Tank Mountain Regional Park had been the perfect desert landscape but I was wrong. Cave Creek has it beat.

Astounding desert views are contained in this 3,000 acre park resting between 2,000 and 3,000 feet altitude. There are remnants of the failed, abandoned operations this area was used for in years gone by – mining, irrigation farming and both cattle and sheep ranching.

Dave had selected the 5.8 mile Go John Trail for us. Named after George O. John, owner of the G.O. John mining claim, it is challenging because of its length. It should have taken from two and a half to three hours to complete but my constant Kodak moments extended that. The loop trail was classed as moderate but with cactus and spectacular views that never quit difficulty was never in mind.

The sagebrush, ironwood and numerous species of cactus all around coupled with the perfect blue sky of Arizona were the living lyrics of “Don’t Fence Me In.” The trail loops around the mountain to provide the illusion of being miles away from civilization. The smooth surface for the most part allows you to enjoy the stunning views instead of worrying about your footing. But take care, part of the trail is very rocky with an elevation gain of 849 feet. Be sure to get an early start because it gets hot fast; and bring plenty of water.

At times I had to just stop and look across the desert floor as it flowed into the city miles away between the mountains. It’s almost like an aerial view; one you certainly cannot capture from the street level. As they walked, Karen and Dave got further and further away but I was never concerned that I would not be able to find them. They both, coincidentally, had managed to wear something that was bright orange in colour. Not even the deepest camouflage of the desert could mask that bold statement.

As Dave and I discussed the cartoon concept of the Saguaro cactus, complete with plumbing, we happened upon one that had been badly marred. As we studied the internal structure we concluded that Looney Tunes was indeed just that. What a maroon!

The Cave Creek Go John Trail is shared by hikers, mountain bikers and horseback riders. We saw only a few people hiking, no bikes and probably more horses than anything else. Dave and Karen were also fortunate to see a snake. They really are not to be feared if you act responsibly near them. The dissertation on the map we were given plainly states, “Leave snakes alone! Remember that you’re visiting their home. Stay calm and go around them. They know you’re not food.”

The hike was not easy but it was the perfect length for us. I was 60 now so I don’t think a day went by, probably not a moment went by, that something didn’t hurt. It was plenty challenging with continuous ups and downs. There was very little in the way of flat sections, and why is it that on a trail such as this there are always so many more ups than downs?

Okay, I was sore and dusty and hot and dry so was ready for an ice cold swim. It was about 80 degrees but it felt a lot hotter than that to me. But it’s a dry heat remember. Yeah, so is that oven over there but you don’t see me climbing into it. That feeling was soon circumvented by a dip in the Antarctic waters of our hosts’ community pool.

This had been a different kind of vacation for us but in a wonderful way. Karen and I usually travel alone, to an unusual destination and spend a lot of time hiking and exploring. We had a bit of that on this trip but we had so much more. We shared the company of wonderful friends. It’s pretty hard to top that.

More from this author at https://ift.tt/3290LLN and https://ift.tt/2KWLh7D

from Cheapr Travels https://ift.tt/2ZtNLP5 via https://ift.tt/2NIqXKN

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smartwebhostingblog · 6 years

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Apple Silly Season Is Upon Us

New Post has been published on https://rwamztech.com/apple-silly-season-is-upon-us/

Apple Silly Season Is Upon Us

Silly Season Is Upon Us

That feeling when graffiti makes more sense than floor traders. By cogdogblog – Good Advice, CC0, Bring a towel, too. (2535543334).jpg

Apple (AAPL) is always subject to Silly Season in their Q1 (Christmas quarter). Q4 has 1-3 weeks of new iPhone sales, but the motherlode is Q1, so speculation is rampant. Apple is the most secretive company in the world, which allows the speculation to shape-shift into fact.

Apple is also the most written-about company in the world, and the best way to get clicks in the tech press is claim-chowder headlines about Apple’s days being numbered. One day, they will be right. But this past decade, how many times have they been wrong? Answer: many. Here’s a fun example from April of this year, long after everyone should have known better:

The iPhone X, Apple’s new flagship phone and heir apparent to the universal design of a smartphone, only accounted for 16% of the company’s smartphone sales so far in 2018, according to estimates from analyst Consumer Intelligence Research Partners. The share of all new iPhones sold in the first quarter of 2018 has slid to 60%, down from 78% in 2015, the report stated. The new models include the iPhone X and the iPhone 8 and 8 Plus—meaning the old versions of iPhone are selling almost as well as their updated counterparts.

Apple’s introduction of the iPhone X, and its elevated $1,000 price, indicated Apple had confidence that people would be willing spend more than ever on a new phone to get cutting-edge technology—but a 11-point slide year over year in sales might indicate that confidence is misplaced…

We’ll know soon enough what the quarter looked like for Apple, as the company reports its earnings May 1.

How’d that work out?

AAPL Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts

Oh, right. I wonder if Dave ever wrote a headline, “Boy, Was I Wrong About the iPhone X!”

This year, Silly Season is even bigger. If this past week wasn’t The Bear and The Bull engaged in thermonuclear war, I don’t know what was. The Animal Spirits are out. The headlines are flying fast and furious. Analysts are downgrading Apple left and right, focused on iPhone units instead of profit for some reason. Anytime someone reminds me that the iPhone has a small market share, I try and remind them they also take about 80% of ALL smartphone profits every quarter.

Anyway, not to pick on Peter Cohan specifically, but there’s been a lot of this:

Apple has been producing new iPhone versions and raising its prices on them. But its high price is not holding for the latest version, the iPhone X, so as Bloomberg reported, Apple is offering customers a 40 percent discount.

How so? On December 2, Apple added a new banner to the top of its website advertising the iPhone XR for $449, $300 less than its official sticker price. The deal, noted with an asterisk and described at the bottom of the page, requires customers to trade in an iPhone 7 Plus, a high-end handset from two years ago.

O how mighty Apple has fallen!

To put it in perspective, the plunge in the iPhone gross margin has been precipitous. As I mentioned, In 2012, the iPhone had a 71 percent gross margin. Before the 40 percent discount, the iPhone X had a much lower gross margin of 48 percent — its price was $749 and the cost of the parts was $390, according to IHS Markit.

By discounting the price to $449, the iPhone gross margin drops to 13 percent.

Bonus points for “O how mighty Apple has fallen!”

He is correct that Steve Jobs loved high gross margins so much that his wife was probably jealous of their relationship. But, unfortunately, arithmetic and common sense are Cohan’s nemeses here.

So What’s Wrong Here?

The first thing is plain common sense. Cohan and others weirdly assume that Apple is going to just chuck these trade-ins into the trash and call it a day. Does that sound like Apple to you? Does that sound like something any company would do? Of course, Apple refurbishes them, and sells them in its online store.

Secondly, as I will show below, Apple is most most likely increasing profits here, not decreasing them.

The Apple Trade-In Program

You wouldn’t know it from these articles, but Apple has had a trade-in program for years now. Two things have changed:

They raised the trade-in value for December. More so on the older phones.

They promoted the heck out of it for Christmas.

Here are the changes in trade-in value:

Device

Old Credit

New Credit

Change

iPhone 6

$75

$150

100%

iPhone 6 Plus

$100

$200

100%

iPhone 6s

$100

$200

100%

iPhone 6s Plus

$150

$250

67%

iPhone 7

$175

$250

43%

iPhone 7 Plus

$250

$300

20%

iPhone 8

$275

$300

So I believe two things are going on here. Apple sees that the upgrade cycle is lengthening, and badly wants to get those people with very old phones into a new one. The extra credit only applies if you are buying a 2018-year phone (Apple also sells new previous year phones as a budget option). As we have learned many times in the past, this does not necessarily mean iPhone units are down, though I suspect they are anyway.

To me, the only units that matter are US dollars, to paraphrase Johnny Rotten.

Source: AZQutoes

The second thing I think is going on has to do with the iPhone 7 Plus, which I believe to be Apple’s focus here. This is pure speculation, so take it with a grain of salt, but in analyzing how they’ve set up the promotion, it just looks like to me that, while they’re taking all comers, they are particularly interested in that model. Apple is deliberate about every single detail of everything, and it can’t be an accident. Why?

First, let’s look at the economics of this transaction.

The Only Units

US dollars! Aren’t they the best? Completely fungible global reserve currency, and the easiest way to keep score. How odd it is that analysts insist on using phone units to keep score when dollars are just sitting right there.

Someone buys an iPhone XR for $449 plus an iPhone 7 Plus in “good” condition. There’s a lot of wiggle room between those two quotation marks, but Apple’s definition of “good” is “anything where the refurb cost is low enough that we can still make an acceptable profit.”

I looked on eBay to get a sense of where the market for used iPhone 7 Pluses stood as of today. I cataloged the last 100 completed transactions that fulfilled the following qualifications:

32GB

Described as good or better. Minor scratches and dings OK.

All components in good working order

No third-party screen replacement or any other third-party major component replacement.

Unlocked in all ways

No accessories required, just the phone

Also, there were a couple that were suspect, like the one that sold for $1100 to someone 10 miles away from the seller (LOL, money-laundering), so I omitted those.

I think this comes pretty close to what Apple is looking for. The last 100 phones sold in this category averaged in price $347.54.1 Apple could just turn around these phones that they are purchasing for $300, and make a 13.7% profit on them the same day. And remember, that’s the least expensive of the iPhone 7 Pluses. The 128GB and 256GB versions fetch about $60 and $120 more on eBay, respectively. Apple pays $300 regardless.

But they don’t sell them on eBay, of course. They send it back to Hon Hai, where they are rubbed and scrubbed and sold in the Apple refurb store, for $479, $569 and $649, depending on storage. Remember, that $649 version still cost Apple only $300. Let’s be super-conservative and say the average sale price is $500 because of heavy mix towards the 32GB phone. That means Apple’s profit here is $200 minus the cost of refurb.

Here’s the tricky part, because Apple is the most secretive company in the world, it’s impossible to know what that refurb cost is. Since they could just get $348 on the open market without the refurb, I would imagine the profit is much higher than that $48. I would guess much closer to $148 to $48, but that’s pure speculation. Let’s just call it $100. So instead of getting $749 for this iPhone XR, Apple got $849 ($449+$500-$100).

Apple does not give anything away. Ever. They like to put on a soft, PC face, but they are also the greediest company out there, because Steve Jobs understood that the scorecard was all in dollar signs, not phone units.

I think this is another brilliant lever-pull by Tim Cook, that no one else even saw, won’t understand until the May conference call, and maybe never. Or, I’m just completely wrong. Isn’t following Apple fun and exhausting?

I Think They’re Headed to Asia

Again, we’re into purely speculative territory here, but this is based on a few things:

Bigger phones tend to be popular in Asia. According to Device Atlas, in South Korea, home of Samsung (OTC:SSNLF), the most popular phone in 2018 is the iPhone 7 Plus with 11% share. The top Android phone is the Galaxy Note 8, also a large phone. It’s not true in every Asian country, but sales of larger phones tend to be better there, where it is often a person’s only device.

Right now, the dollar is strong and a good way for Apple to boost profits is selling abroad. The $749 iPhoneXR costs 990,000 Korean Won, or $887 in today’s exchange on xe.com. A brand new iPhone 7 Plus is $569 in the US, and $681 in Korea. Also, this income and profit gets funneled through their Irish “subsidiary” and they pay no US taxes on it.

Notice I didn’t tell you the price of a refurb iPhone 7 Plus in the Korean Apple Store? That’s because there are no iPhones there, or anywhere else in Asia that I looked. Like I said, Apple is very deliberate about things, and they may have a Very Good Reason why there are none. Or, they could be lacking in supply, and that’s what this is all about: getting supply of used inventory to sell in Asia.

But Wouldn’t This Cut Into New iPhone Sales?

Yes. Probably. I don’t care. More to the point, neither does Apple. The margins on the refurbs are high, it increases their user base in the fastest growing part of the world, and juicing foreign sales, where the profits are much higher, will make up for some of the reduced units on the top-line phones. Analysts may care where the dollars come from, but Apple does not.2 They are the only units that matter.

Implications for Apple Stock

As I write this, Apple sits at 156.23. It’s TTM PE is 13.15. Their cash-net-debt is about $22/share (probably more now, since the share count is likely lower than it was in September). So minus the cash, the market is currently valuing Apple at $134 with a PE of 11.30. That is, other than the cash, the entire rest of Apple is worth $636 billion. Other assets besides cash are $166 billion. So the non-asset value of the entire company is $470 billion. Come on, now.

But there is an old saying that the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. The Bull and The Bear are out, fighting for supremacy, with one fear trade on top of another. Say whatever you want about trade, the Fed, liquidity, whatever. We are into pure Animal Spirits and none of it matters until one of them wins.

So under these conditions, I can’t say that Apple stock won’t go even lower; you may even be able to get it as low as $100 if The Bear wins. But I also think that the price for Apple now is absurdly low, and a year from now will be a lot higher. I took another taste at $150, even though I am a big Fat Bear right now. If it goes to $100, I will probably buy more. That’s how I do Apple, I only buy, never sell. It’s working so far, until it doesn’t.

Conclusions: Who Knows?

Pictured L-R: Eddie Cue, Ho Chi Minh, Nikita Khrushchev, Phil Schiller, Leonid Brezhnev, Tim Cook and Jeff Williams. Scott Forestall was airbrushed out of that empty spot in the middle between Khrushchev and Schiller. Source: US Navy Public Archives

During the Cold War, solid data about the Soviet Union was very hard to come by. Frustrated political scientists came up with the field of “Sovietology,” which was more art than science. They would pour over articles and photos in Pravda looking for any clue into new policy or inner-circle machinations from article verbiage, and photo composition and airbrushing. You will probably be unsurprised to learn that, lacking data, their predictions were not very good.

Covering Apple is kind of similar and equally as frustrating. They are almost as secretive as the Soviets between SEC filings, and so we have to engage in a little educated guessing, and hope our record is better than the Sovietologists. Anyone from outside of Apple who tells you they know what is happening at Apple is a liar. Heck, most of the people inside Apple don’t know what’s going on beyond their own small world there.

As always, the speculation about this quarter will end with their 10-Q, and maybe we will get a couple of days’ break before the speculation on Q2 begins. Until then, speculate away!

Sadly…

My policy with heavily-followed companies like Apple is to not read or respond to comments, as they seem to attract a large amount of FUD and trolling. Feel free to send me a private message if you have a question or comment directed at me. If you are polite and respectful, you will almost certainly get a response that is also polite and respectful.

Endnotes

1 I included shipping for two reasons. 1. This is the full cost of what the buyer was willing to pay. 2. Low price + high shipping cost is the oldest trick in the book.

2 When the iPhone was first released, some analysts complained that it would cut into iPod sales and was therefore a bad idea. Seriously.

Disclosure: I am/we are long AAPL. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: Forever, and ever

Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

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awesomecolorfulcollectorwombat · 6 years

Text

Apple Silly Season Is Upon Us

New Post has been published on https://rwamztech.com/apple-silly-season-is-upon-us/

Apple Silly Season Is Upon Us

Silly Season Is Upon Us

That feeling when graffiti makes more sense than floor traders. By cogdogblog – Good Advice, CC0, Bring a towel, too. (2535543334).jpg

We’ll know soon enough what the quarter looked like for Apple, as the company reports its earnings May 1.

How’d that work out?

AAPL Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts

Oh, right. I wonder if Dave ever wrote a headline, “Boy, Was I Wrong About the iPhone X!”

Anyway, not to pick on Peter Cohan specifically, but there’s been a lot of this:

O how mighty Apple has fallen!

By discounting the price to $449, the iPhone gross margin drops to 13 percent.

Bonus points for “O how mighty Apple has fallen!”

He is correct that Steve Jobs loved high gross margins so much that his wife was probably jealous of their relationship. But, unfortunately, arithmetic and common sense are Cohan’s nemeses here.

So What’s Wrong Here?

Secondly, as I will show below, Apple is most most likely increasing profits here, not decreasing them.

The Apple Trade-In Program

You wouldn’t know it from these articles, but Apple has had a trade-in program for years now. Two things have changed:

They raised the trade-in value for December. More so on the older phones.

They promoted the heck out of it for Christmas.

Here are the changes in trade-in value:

Device

Old Credit

New Credit

Change

iPhone 6

$75

$150

100%

iPhone 6 Plus

$100

$200

100%

iPhone 6s

$100

$200

100%

iPhone 6s Plus

$150

$250

67%

iPhone 7

$175

$250

43%

iPhone 7 Plus

$250

$300

20%

iPhone 8

$275

$300

To me, the only units that matter are US dollars, to paraphrase Johnny Rotten.

Source: AZQutoes

First, let’s look at the economics of this transaction.

The Only Units

I looked on eBay to get a sense of where the market for used iPhone 7 Pluses stood as of today. I cataloged the last 100 completed transactions that fulfilled the following qualifications:

32GB

Described as good or better. Minor scratches and dings OK.

All components in good working order

No third-party screen replacement or any other third-party major component replacement.

Unlocked in all ways

No accessories required, just the phone

Also, there were a couple that were suspect, like the one that sold for $1100 to someone 10 miles away from the seller (LOL, money-laundering), so I omitted those.

I Think They’re Headed to Asia

Again, we’re into purely speculative territory here, but this is based on a few things:

But Wouldn’t This Cut Into New iPhone Sales?

Implications for Apple Stock

Conclusions: Who Knows?

As always, the speculation about this quarter will end with their 10-Q, and maybe we will get a couple of days’ break before the speculation on Q2 begins. Until then, speculate away!

Sadly…

Endnotes

1 I included shipping for two reasons. 1. This is the full cost of what the buyer was willing to pay. 2. Low price + high shipping cost is the oldest trick in the book.

2 When the iPhone was first released, some analysts complained that it would cut into iPod sales and was therefore a bad idea. Seriously.

Additional disclosure: Forever, and ever

Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

0 notes

lazilysillyprince · 6 years

Text

Apple Silly Season Is Upon Us

New Post has been published on https://rwamztech.com/apple-silly-season-is-upon-us/

Apple Silly Season Is Upon Us

Silly Season Is Upon Us

That feeling when graffiti makes more sense than floor traders. By cogdogblog – Good Advice, CC0, Bring a towel, too. (2535543334).jpg

We’ll know soon enough what the quarter looked like for Apple, as the company reports its earnings May 1.

How’d that work out?

AAPL Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts

Oh, right. I wonder if Dave ever wrote a headline, “Boy, Was I Wrong About the iPhone X!”

Anyway, not to pick on Peter Cohan specifically, but there’s been a lot of this:

O how mighty Apple has fallen!

By discounting the price to $449, the iPhone gross margin drops to 13 percent.

Bonus points for “O how mighty Apple has fallen!”

He is correct that Steve Jobs loved high gross margins so much that his wife was probably jealous of their relationship. But, unfortunately, arithmetic and common sense are Cohan’s nemeses here.

So What’s Wrong Here?

Secondly, as I will show below, Apple is most most likely increasing profits here, not decreasing them.

The Apple Trade-In Program

You wouldn’t know it from these articles, but Apple has had a trade-in program for years now. Two things have changed:

They raised the trade-in value for December. More so on the older phones.

They promoted the heck out of it for Christmas.

Here are the changes in trade-in value:

Device

Old Credit

New Credit

Change

iPhone 6

$75

$150

100%

iPhone 6 Plus

$100

$200

100%

iPhone 6s

$100

$200

100%

iPhone 6s Plus

$150

$250

67%

iPhone 7

$175

$250

43%

iPhone 7 Plus

$250

$300

20%

iPhone 8

$275

$300

To me, the only units that matter are US dollars, to paraphrase Johnny Rotten.

Source: AZQutoes

First, let’s look at the economics of this transaction.

The Only Units

I looked on eBay to get a sense of where the market for used iPhone 7 Pluses stood as of today. I cataloged the last 100 completed transactions that fulfilled the following qualifications:

32GB

Described as good or better. Minor scratches and dings OK.

All components in good working order

No third-party screen replacement or any other third-party major component replacement.

Unlocked in all ways

No accessories required, just the phone

Also, there were a couple that were suspect, like the one that sold for $1100 to someone 10 miles away from the seller (LOL, money-laundering), so I omitted those.

I Think They’re Headed to Asia

Again, we’re into purely speculative territory here, but this is based on a few things:

But Wouldn’t This Cut Into New iPhone Sales?

Implications for Apple Stock

Conclusions: Who Knows?

As always, the speculation about this quarter will end with their 10-Q, and maybe we will get a couple of days’ break before the speculation on Q2 begins. Until then, speculate away!

Sadly…

Endnotes

1 I included shipping for two reasons. 1. This is the full cost of what the buyer was willing to pay. 2. Low price + high shipping cost is the oldest trick in the book.

2 When the iPhone was first released, some analysts complained that it would cut into iPod sales and was therefore a bad idea. Seriously.

Additional disclosure: Forever, and ever

Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

0 notes

hostingnewsfeed · 6 years

Text

Apple Silly Season Is Upon Us

New Post has been published on https://rwamztech.com/apple-silly-season-is-upon-us/

Apple Silly Season Is Upon Us

Silly Season Is Upon Us

That feeling when graffiti makes more sense than floor traders. By cogdogblog – Good Advice, CC0, Bring a towel, too. (2535543334).jpg

We’ll know soon enough what the quarter looked like for Apple, as the company reports its earnings May 1.

How’d that work out?

AAPL Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts

Oh, right. I wonder if Dave ever wrote a headline, “Boy, Was I Wrong About the iPhone X!”

Anyway, not to pick on Peter Cohan specifically, but there’s been a lot of this:

O how mighty Apple has fallen!

By discounting the price to $449, the iPhone gross margin drops to 13 percent.

Bonus points for “O how mighty Apple has fallen!”

He is correct that Steve Jobs loved high gross margins so much that his wife was probably jealous of their relationship. But, unfortunately, arithmetic and common sense are Cohan’s nemeses here.

So What’s Wrong Here?

Secondly, as I will show below, Apple is most most likely increasing profits here, not decreasing them.

The Apple Trade-In Program

You wouldn’t know it from these articles, but Apple has had a trade-in program for years now. Two things have changed:

They raised the trade-in value for December. More so on the older phones.

They promoted the heck out of it for Christmas.

Here are the changes in trade-in value:

Device

Old Credit

New Credit

Change

iPhone 6

$75

$150

100%

iPhone 6 Plus

$100

$200

100%

iPhone 6s

$100

$200

100%

iPhone 6s Plus

$150

$250

67%

iPhone 7

$175

$250

43%

iPhone 7 Plus

$250

$300

20%

iPhone 8

$275

$300

To me, the only units that matter are US dollars, to paraphrase Johnny Rotten.

Source: AZQutoes

First, let’s look at the economics of this transaction.

The Only Units

I looked on eBay to get a sense of where the market for used iPhone 7 Pluses stood as of today. I cataloged the last 100 completed transactions that fulfilled the following qualifications:

32GB

Described as good or better. Minor scratches and dings OK.

All components in good working order

No third-party screen replacement or any other third-party major component replacement.

Unlocked in all ways

No accessories required, just the phone

Also, there were a couple that were suspect, like the one that sold for $1100 to someone 10 miles away from the seller (LOL, money-laundering), so I omitted those.

I Think They’re Headed to Asia

Again, we’re into purely speculative territory here, but this is based on a few things:

But Wouldn’t This Cut Into New iPhone Sales?

Implications for Apple Stock

Conclusions: Who Knows?

As always, the speculation about this quarter will end with their 10-Q, and maybe we will get a couple of days’ break before the speculation on Q2 begins. Until then, speculate away!

Sadly…

Endnotes

1 I included shipping for two reasons. 1. This is the full cost of what the buyer was willing to pay. 2. Low price + high shipping cost is the oldest trick in the book.

2 When the iPhone was first released, some analysts complained that it would cut into iPod sales and was therefore a bad idea. Seriously.

Additional disclosure: Forever, and ever

Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

0 notes

junker-town · 7 years

Text

Dodgers’ latest slump hasn’t eroded their confidence, with good reason

The Dodgers have lost 10 of 11 games, but still maintain the best record in baseball by a healthy margin and have reasons to be confident heading into the playoffs.

LOS ANGELES -- It is September 6, and the Los Angeles Dodgers have lost 9½ games off their division lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks in just 11 days. Under normal circumstances, this would likely qualify as an epic collapse. But this has been no ordinary season for the Dodgers.

The Dodgers have dropped 10 of their last 11 games, while the Diamondbacks have won 12 straight, the perfect storm for a late-season comeback. But the Dodgers still own a 12½-game advantage in the National League West, and at 92-46 still own the best record in baseball, seven games clear of the next-closest team (Houston Astros).

Helping that comeback for Arizona is that five of their 12 wins have been against the Dodgers, all in the last eight days, including the last two nights at Dodger Stadium. The Diamondbacks are one of two teams with the winning record (10-8) against the Dodgers in 2017 — the Washington Nationals have won two of three against Los Angeles, with three more games remaining in two weekends — yet understandably, the Dodgers’ confidence is still high.

Yasmani Grandal said #Dodgers would not be at all apprehensive to face Diamondbacks in playoffs. "We know we’re the better team,” he said.

— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) September 6, 2017

Dave Roberts: "I can assure you this won't break us."

— Andy McCullough (@McCulloughTimes) September 3, 2017

Before their recent losing skid, the Dodgers were on pace for 116 wins, which would have tied the MLB record. Now, they would need to finish 24-0 to reach that mark. Their current pace is only 108 victories.

To put things into perspective, the Dodgers have 24 games remaining in the regular season, while the Diamondbacks have 23. Of those 47 outcomes, Arizona needs 36 to fall their way to win the National League West, or 35 to tie and force a one-game playoff for the division. Two of those outcomes can be struck at once with Wednesday’s series and regular season finale between these two teams, at Dodger Stadium. But even with Arizona’s great run over the last week and a half, their chances for the division remain quite slim.

FanGraphs still projects the Dodgers with a 100-percent chance to win the division, as does Baseball Prospectus.

Those odds haven’t done much to soothe a segment of Dodgers fans, who aren’t handling the losses well. But its hard to blame them. After all before the Dodgers lost 10 of their last 11 games, the club had 10 losses in their previous 60 games. They didn’t even have a losing streak of longer than three games before their dueling five-game skids in the last week and a half.

"I don't think there's anything I can say to soothe fans and their passion,” manager Dave Roberts told reporters on Wednesday. “We're going to win a game again, I know that."

The Dodgers will need to play a lot better to turn things around. They have been outscored 62-26 in their last 11 games, hitting .200/.263/.317 as a team while the pitching staff posted a 5.72 ERA.

Part of the issue has been resting players, with the Dodgers taking their foot off the gas pedal with a large division lead — it got has high as 21 games before the recent slide — and the club did win 92 games before September even started, surpassing their season total from 2016, when their won their fourth straight division.

The Dodgers are making sure people are healthy and ready in October, taking every precaution necessary and not forcing things for games in September.

But this is nothing new. The team has been resting players all season, making liberal use of the 10-day disabled list. Nine of their 10 pitchers to start a game in 2017 have spent at least one stint on the DL, some multiple times. On offense, Yasiel Puig, who has played in 131 of the Dodgers’ 138 games, is the only Dodger who can even reach 150 games played this season, with only three more — Corey Seager (123 games), Kiké Hernandez (121) and Chris Taylor (117) — with a chance at 140 games played.

“It’s a luxury we do have, because we have a lot of good players,” Roberts said.

Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images

Clayton Kershaw is back from the disabled list, and leads the majors in ERA (1.95) and wins (16, tied).

The Dodgers have 18 different players with at least 0.8 Wins Above Replacement this season — a cherry-picked minimum, sure, but the season is roughly 85-percent over so it wasn’t purely selected out of thin air. Only the Cleveland Indians — winners of 13 straight games themselves — have more, with 19 players.

There are reasons to believe the Dodgers will, in fact, play better. One is that five months worth of games tells us more about a team than two weeks, no matter how fresh in our noses the recent stench might be.

The Dodgers pitching staff as a whole has been arguably the best in baseball all season. They allow 3.49 runs per game on average this season, a half-run better than Arizona, the next-best team in the NL. The Indians, at 3.68 runs per game, are the only other major league team to allow fewer than four runs per contest.

But that Dodgers staff got smoked last week, especially the starters. In eight games last week, the starters posted an 8.80 ERA, and that included six shutout innings from Clayton Kershaw in his first start after missing over five weeks on the disabled list with back tightness. His return is another beacon of hope for the team.

In three games in Arizona, the Diamondbacks jumped on Rich Hill, Hyun-jin Ryu and Kenta Maeda for 10 first-inning runs in a three-game sweep, and that trio combined to allow 19 runs on 24 hits in 10⅔ innings, including six home runs. Only Hill among this group is likely to get playoff starts for the Dodgers, though Ryu and/or Maeda could potentially be a part of a postseason bullpen.

“It doesn’t matter. They just didn’t pitch well. We’re gonna be at home, and they will pitch better,” Roberts said. “We’re not concerned about the matchup [with Arizona].”

That trio got a second chance at Arizona this week at Dodger Stadium, and in the first two games at least have done well, despite the losses. Hill and Ryu combined to allow just three runs in 12 innings on Monday and Tuesday, with 17 strikeouts.

It might have helped had the Dodgers scored more than one run in the first two games of this series.

Seager is dealing with elbow inflammation and hasn’t started the last nine games, though is expected to return at some point during the upcoming weekend series against the Colorado Rockies.

Cody Bellinger, whose 36 home runs established a Dodgers franchise record for rookie home runs, missed nine games with an ankle sprain, and is 6-for-28 (.214/.241/.500) since his return from the disabled list.

Seager and Bellinger haven’t been in the same starting lineup since Aug. 19 in Detroit. In 17 games since, the Dodgers are averaging just 2.88 runs per game.

“You look at what Corey brings to our lineup, he’s arguably our best offensive player who’s not in there. Cody’s just getting his feet wet, still trying to get on track,” said Roberts. “Right now we’re not firing.”

On the season, the Dodgers average 4.85 runs per game, fifth in the NL, and they rank first in the league in both OPS+ (103) and wRC+ (106).

The Dodgers’ insane run of winning -- they went 52-9 in one stretch, and went nearly three months without losing a series, going 19-0-3 — was fueled in large part by the offensive quartet of Chris Taylor, Seager, Justin Turner, and Bellinger, who usually occupy the first four spots in the batting order.

In the 53 games those four have been in the starting lineup together this season, the Dodgers have averaged 5.68 runs per game, and are 45-8 (.849).

Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images

Making sure those four, and the pitching staff, are healthy for the playoffs are of chief concern to the Dodgers at the moment, much more so than September regular season games, no matter how frustrating the short-term cost — losses -- might seem.

But can the Dodgers flip the switch in October?

Back in 2009, when the Dodgers were not faring well down the stretch after building a large division lead, I researched how playoff teams fared under the wild card format, at the time using data from 1995-2008, the first 14 years of the Wild Card era:

Here are the first round playoff results based on these factors:

Teams with home field advantage won 24 of 48 1st round series (50.0%)

Teams with the better regular season record won 26 of 54 1st round series (48.1%)

Teams with the better record in the final 10 games won 21 of 46 1st round series (45.7%)

Teams with the better record in the final 20 games won 22 of 46 1st round series (47.8%)

Teams with the better record in the final 30 games won 27 of 49 1st round series (55.1%)

I don't see a lot of advantage there in any category. Perhaps in the final 30 games, that may lead to postseason success, but it doesn't appear to be an overwhelming advantage.

Here are the league championship series results based on these factors:

Teams with home field advantage won 15 of 28 league championship series (53.6%)

Teams with the better regular season record won 16 of 27 league championship series (59.3%)

Teams with the better record in the final 10 games won 11 of 20 league championship series (55.0%)

Teams with the better record in the final 20 games won 12 of 25 league championship series (48.0%)

Teams with the better record in the final 30 games won 9 of 24 league championship series (37.5%)

Again, it doesn't appear that any kind of strong finish yields a significant advantage. Maybe regular season record is important in the league championship series, but last I checked the Dodgers in fact have the best record in the National League.

I haven’t looked at the data from the last eight years, but at the very least there are examples of teams stumbling through September only to find success in October.

The San Francisco Giants were one game back in the National League West, then lost nine of their remaining 15 games in 2014, settling for the second Wild Card spot in the NL. They won the World Series.

In 2015, the Kansas City Royals dropped 18 of 28 games from Aug. 30 to Sept. 29, then trailed the American League Wild Card Game 7-1 in the seventh inning. They also won the World Series.

“It’s easy to say that momentum does matter, and any team if they had their choice would they want that momentum? Absolutely,” Roberts said. “But every team if you see has had momentum how they fared going into the postseason, compared to teams that didn’t have it, the winning kind of balances itself out.”

The bottom line is this. How the Dodgers fare this October will depend on how they play this October. It won’t be because of how they played in late August and early September, just like it won’t be a result of how they played in June, July, or most of August.

0 notes

topfygad · 5 years

Text

Travelmag – Arizona beckons on the ‘Go John’ trail

More from this author at https://ift.tt/3290LLN and https://ift.tt/2KWLh7D

from Cheapr Travels https://ift.tt/2ZtNLP5 via IFTTT

#IFTTT #Cheapr Travels

0 notes

topfygad · 5 years

Text

Travelmag – Arizona beckons on the ‘Go John’ trail

More from this author at https://ift.tt/3290LLN and https://ift.tt/2KWLh7D

source http://cheaprtravels.com/travelmag-arizona-beckons-on-the-go-john-trail/

0 notes

smartwebhostingblog · 6 years

Text

Apple Silly Season Is Upon Us

New Post has been published on http://croopdiseno.com/apple-silly-season-is-upon-us/

Apple Silly Season Is Upon Us

Silly Season Is Upon Us

That feeling when graffiti makes more sense than floor traders. By cogdogblog – Good Advice, CC0, Bring a towel, too. (2535543334).jpg

We’ll know soon enough what the quarter looked like for Apple, as the company reports its earnings May 1.

How’d that work out?

AAPL Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts

Oh, right. I wonder if Dave ever wrote a headline, “Boy, Was I Wrong About the iPhone X!”

Anyway, not to pick on Peter Cohan specifically, but there’s been a lot of this:

O how mighty Apple has fallen!

By discounting the price to $449, the iPhone gross margin drops to 13 percent.

Bonus points for “O how mighty Apple has fallen!”

He is correct that Steve Jobs loved high gross margins so much that his wife was probably jealous of their relationship. But, unfortunately, arithmetic and common sense are Cohan’s nemeses here.

So What’s Wrong Here?

Secondly, as I will show below, Apple is most most likely increasing profits here, not decreasing them.

The Apple Trade-In Program

You wouldn’t know it from these articles, but Apple has had a trade-in program for years now. Two things have changed:

They raised the trade-in value for December. More so on the older phones.

They promoted the heck out of it for Christmas.

Here are the changes in trade-in value:

Device

Old Credit

New Credit

Change

iPhone 6

$75

$150

100%

iPhone 6 Plus

$100

$200

100%

iPhone 6s

$100

$200

100%

iPhone 6s Plus

$150

$250

67%

iPhone 7

$175

$250

43%

iPhone 7 Plus

$250

$300

20%

iPhone 8

$275

$300

To me, the only units that matter are US dollars, to paraphrase Johnny Rotten.

Source: AZQutoes

First, let’s look at the economics of this transaction.

The Only Units

Someone buys an iPhone XR for $449 plus an iPhone 7 Plus in “good” condition. There’s a lot of wiggle room between those two quotation marks, but Apple’s definition of “good” is ��anything where the refurb cost is low enough that we can still make an acceptable profit.”

I looked on eBay to get a sense of where the market for used iPhone 7 Pluses stood as of today. I cataloged the last 100 completed transactions that fulfilled the following qualifications:

32GB

Described as good or better. Minor scratches and dings OK.

All components in good working order

No third-party screen replacement or any other third-party major component replacement.

Unlocked in all ways

No accessories required, just the phone

Also, there were a couple that were suspect, like the one that sold for $1100 to someone 10 miles away from the seller (LOL, money-laundering), so I omitted those.

I Think They’re Headed to Asia

Again, we’re into purely speculative territory here, but this is based on a few things:

But Wouldn’t This Cut Into New iPhone Sales?

Implications for Apple Stock

Conclusions: Who Knows?

As always, the speculation about this quarter will end with their 10-Q, and maybe we will get a couple of days’ break before the speculation on Q2 begins. Until then, speculate away!

Sadly…

Endnotes

1 I included shipping for two reasons. 1. This is the full cost of what the buyer was willing to pay. 2. Low price + high shipping cost is the oldest trick in the book.

2 When the iPhone was first released, some analysts complained that it would cut into iPod sales and was therefore a bad idea. Seriously.

Additional disclosure: Forever, and ever

Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

0 notes

awesomecolorfulcollectorwombat · 6 years

Text

Apple Silly Season Is Upon Us

New Post has been published on http://croopdiseno.com/apple-silly-season-is-upon-us/

Apple Silly Season Is Upon Us

Silly Season Is Upon Us

That feeling when graffiti makes more sense than floor traders. By cogdogblog – Good Advice, CC0, Bring a towel, too. (2535543334).jpg

We’ll know soon enough what the quarter looked like for Apple, as the company reports its earnings May 1.

How’d that work out?

AAPL Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts

Oh, right. I wonder if Dave ever wrote a headline, “Boy, Was I Wrong About the iPhone X!”

Anyway, not to pick on Peter Cohan specifically, but there’s been a lot of this:

O how mighty Apple has fallen!

By discounting the price to $449, the iPhone gross margin drops to 13 percent.

Bonus points for “O how mighty Apple has fallen!”

He is correct that Steve Jobs loved high gross margins so much that his wife was probably jealous of their relationship. But, unfortunately, arithmetic and common sense are Cohan’s nemeses here.

So What’s Wrong Here?

Secondly, as I will show below, Apple is most most likely increasing profits here, not decreasing them.

The Apple Trade-In Program

You wouldn’t know it from these articles, but Apple has had a trade-in program for years now. Two things have changed:

They raised the trade-in value for December. More so on the older phones.

They promoted the heck out of it for Christmas.

Here are the changes in trade-in value:

Device

Old Credit

New Credit

Change

iPhone 6

$75

$150

100%

iPhone 6 Plus

$100

$200

100%

iPhone 6s

$100

$200

100%

iPhone 6s Plus

$150

$250

67%

iPhone 7

$175

$250

43%

iPhone 7 Plus

$250

$300

20%

iPhone 8

$275

$300

To me, the only units that matter are US dollars, to paraphrase Johnny Rotten.

Source: AZQutoes

First, let’s look at the economics of this transaction.

The Only Units

I looked on eBay to get a sense of where the market for used iPhone 7 Pluses stood as of today. I cataloged the last 100 completed transactions that fulfilled the following qualifications:

32GB

Described as good or better. Minor scratches and dings OK.

All components in good working order

No third-party screen replacement or any other third-party major component replacement.

Unlocked in all ways

No accessories required, just the phone

Also, there were a couple that were suspect, like the one that sold for $1100 to someone 10 miles away from the seller (LOL, money-laundering), so I omitted those.

I Think They’re Headed to Asia

Again, we’re into purely speculative territory here, but this is based on a few things:

But Wouldn’t This Cut Into New iPhone Sales?

Implications for Apple Stock

Conclusions: Who Knows?

As always, the speculation about this quarter will end with their 10-Q, and maybe we will get a couple of days’ break before the speculation on Q2 begins. Until then, speculate away!

Sadly…

Endnotes

1 I included shipping for two reasons. 1. This is the full cost of what the buyer was willing to pay. 2. Low price + high shipping cost is the oldest trick in the book.

2 When the iPhone was first released, some analysts complained that it would cut into iPod sales and was therefore a bad idea. Seriously.

Additional disclosure: Forever, and ever

Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

0 notes

lazilysillyprince · 6 years

Text

Apple Silly Season Is Upon Us

New Post has been published on http://croopdiseno.com/apple-silly-season-is-upon-us/

Apple Silly Season Is Upon Us

Silly Season Is Upon Us

That feeling when graffiti makes more sense than floor traders. By cogdogblog – Good Advice, CC0, Bring a towel, too. (2535543334).jpg

We’ll know soon enough what the quarter looked like for Apple, as the company reports its earnings May 1.

How’d that work out?

AAPL Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts

Oh, right. I wonder if Dave ever wrote a headline, “Boy, Was I Wrong About the iPhone X!”

Anyway, not to pick on Peter Cohan specifically, but there’s been a lot of this:

O how mighty Apple has fallen!

By discounting the price to $449, the iPhone gross margin drops to 13 percent.

Bonus points for “O how mighty Apple has fallen!”

He is correct that Steve Jobs loved high gross margins so much that his wife was probably jealous of their relationship. But, unfortunately, arithmetic and common sense are Cohan’s nemeses here.

So What’s Wrong Here?

Secondly, as I will show below, Apple is most most likely increasing profits here, not decreasing them.

The Apple Trade-In Program

You wouldn’t know it from these articles, but Apple has had a trade-in program for years now. Two things have changed:

They raised the trade-in value for December. More so on the older phones.

They promoted the heck out of it for Christmas.

Here are the changes in trade-in value:

Device

Old Credit

New Credit

Change

iPhone 6

$75

$150

100%

iPhone 6 Plus

$100

$200

100%

iPhone 6s

$100

$200

100%

iPhone 6s Plus

$150

$250

67%

iPhone 7

$175

$250

43%

iPhone 7 Plus

$250

$300

20%

iPhone 8

$275

$300

To me, the only units that matter are US dollars, to paraphrase Johnny Rotten.

Source: AZQutoes

First, let’s look at the economics of this transaction.

The Only Units

I looked on eBay to get a sense of where the market for used iPhone 7 Pluses stood as of today. I cataloged the last 100 completed transactions that fulfilled the following qualifications:

32GB

Described as good or better. Minor scratches and dings OK.

All components in good working order

No third-party screen replacement or any other third-party major component replacement.

Unlocked in all ways

No accessories required, just the phone

Also, there were a couple that were suspect, like the one that sold for $1100 to someone 10 miles away from the seller (LOL, money-laundering), so I omitted those.

I Think They’re Headed to Asia

Again, we’re into purely speculative territory here, but this is based on a few things:

But Wouldn’t This Cut Into New iPhone Sales?

Implications for Apple Stock

Conclusions: Who Knows?

As always, the speculation about this quarter will end with their 10-Q, and maybe we will get a couple of days’ break before the speculation on Q2 begins. Until then, speculate away!

Sadly…

Endnotes

1 I included shipping for two reasons. 1. This is the full cost of what the buyer was willing to pay. 2. Low price + high shipping cost is the oldest trick in the book.

2 When the iPhone was first released, some analysts complained that it would cut into iPod sales and was therefore a bad idea. Seriously.

Additional disclosure: Forever, and ever

Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

0 notes

hostingnewsfeed · 6 years

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Apple Silly Season Is Upon Us

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Apple Silly Season Is Upon Us

Silly Season Is Upon Us

That feeling when graffiti makes more sense than floor traders. By cogdogblog – Good Advice, CC0, Bring a towel, too. (2535543334).jpg

We’ll know soon enough what the quarter looked like for Apple, as the company reports its earnings May 1.

How’d that work out?

AAPL Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts

Oh, right. I wonder if Dave ever wrote a headline, “Boy, Was I Wrong About the iPhone X!”

Anyway, not to pick on Peter Cohan specifically, but there’s been a lot of this:

O how mighty Apple has fallen!

By discounting the price to $449, the iPhone gross margin drops to 13 percent.

Bonus points for “O how mighty Apple has fallen!”

He is correct that Steve Jobs loved high gross margins so much that his wife was probably jealous of their relationship. But, unfortunately, arithmetic and common sense are Cohan’s nemeses here.

So What’s Wrong Here?

Secondly, as I will show below, Apple is most most likely increasing profits here, not decreasing them.

The Apple Trade-In Program

You wouldn’t know it from these articles, but Apple has had a trade-in program for years now. Two things have changed:

They raised the trade-in value for December. More so on the older phones.

They promoted the heck out of it for Christmas.

Here are the changes in trade-in value:

Device

Old Credit

New Credit

Change

iPhone 6

$75

$150

100%

iPhone 6 Plus

$100

$200

100%

iPhone 6s

$100

$200

100%

iPhone 6s Plus

$150

$250

67%

iPhone 7

$175

$250

43%

iPhone 7 Plus

$250

$300

20%

iPhone 8

$275

$300

To me, the only units that matter are US dollars, to paraphrase Johnny Rotten.

Source: AZQutoes

First, let’s look at the economics of this transaction.

The Only Units

I looked on eBay to get a sense of where the market for used iPhone 7 Pluses stood as of today. I cataloged the last 100 completed transactions that fulfilled the following qualifications:

32GB

Described as good or better. Minor scratches and dings OK.

All components in good working order

No third-party screen replacement or any other third-party major component replacement.

Unlocked in all ways

No accessories required, just the phone

Also, there were a couple that were suspect, like the one that sold for $1100 to someone 10 miles away from the seller (LOL, money-laundering), so I omitted those.

I Think They’re Headed to Asia

Again, we’re into purely speculative territory here, but this is based on a few things:

But Wouldn’t This Cut Into New iPhone Sales?

Implications for Apple Stock

Conclusions: Who Knows?

As always, the speculation about this quarter will end with their 10-Q, and maybe we will get a couple of days’ break before the speculation on Q2 begins. Until then, speculate away!

Sadly…

Endnotes

1 I included shipping for two reasons. 1. This is the full cost of what the buyer was willing to pay. 2. Low price + high shipping cost is the oldest trick in the book.

2 When the iPhone was first released, some analysts complained that it would cut into iPod sales and was therefore a bad idea. Seriously.

Additional disclosure: Forever, and ever

Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

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