#António One Two Three

[reasonsforhope]

One country in the [climate-change] firing line is Cape Verde. The West African island nation, where 80% of the population lives on the coast, is already feeling the brunt of rising sea levels and increasing ocean acidity on its infrastructure, tourism, biodiversity and fisheries.

The country desperately needs to both mitigate and adapt to these problems, but – as with many Global South countries at present – simply lacks the budget to do it: Cape Verde’s debt reached an all-time high of 157% of GDP in 2021.

In a bid to address both issues simultaneously, the country has signed a novel agreement with Portugal to swap some of its debt for investments into an environmental and climate fund. The former Portuguese colony owes the Portuguese state €140m ($148m) and Portuguese banks €400m.

On a state visit to Cape Verde on 23 January, Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa announced the debt would be put towards Cape Verde’s energy transition and fight against climate change. Costa earmarked projects involving energy efficiency, renewable energy and green hydrogen as possible targets for the fund.

“This is a new seed that we sow in our future cooperation,” said Costa. “Climate change is a challenge that takes place on a global scale and no country will be sustainable if all countries are not sustainable.”

“Debt-for-climate swaps” allow countries to reduce their debt obligations in exchange for a commitment to finance domestic climate and nature projects with the freed-up financial resources. The concept has been knocking about since the 1980s, typically geared at nature conservation. However, after recent deals for Barbados, Belize and the Seychelles, and huge $800m and $1bn agreements in the offing for Ecuador and Sri Lanka, is this financial instrument finally coming of age?

How It Works

Debt-for-climate swaps typically follow a formula. First, a creditor [here, a group or government that money is owed to] agrees to reduce debt, either by converting it into local currency, lowering the interest rate, writing off some of the debt, or a combination of all three. The debtor will then use the saved money for initiatives aimed at increasing climate resilience, lowering greenhouse gas emissions or protecting biodiversity.

The original 'debt-for-nature swaps' began as small, trilateral deals, with NGOs buying sovereign debt owed to commercial banks to redirect payments towards nature projects. They have since evolved into larger, bilateral deals between creditors and debtors...

Debt-for-climate swaps free up fiscal resources so governments can improve resilience and transition to a low-carbon economy without causing a fiscal crisis or sacrificing spending on other development priorities. [These swaps] can create additional revenue for countries with valuable biodiversity or carbon sinks by allowing them to charge others to protect those assets, thereby providing a global public good.

Swaps can even result in an upgrade to a country’s sovereign credit rating, as was the case in Belize, which makes government borrowing cheaper [and improves the country's economy.]

Right now, these [swaps] are needed more than ever, with low-income countries dealing with multiple crises that have put huge pressure on public debt...

Debt-for-climate swaps: “Increasing in size and scale”

Although debt-for-climate swaps are not new, until recently the amount of finance raised globally from the instrument has been modest – just $1bn between 1987 and 2003, according to one OECD study. Just three of the 140 swaps over the past 35 years have had a value of more than $250m, according to the African Development Bank. The average size was a mere $26.6m.

However, the market has steadily picked up pace over the past two decades... In 2016, the government of the Seychelles signed a landmark agreement with developed nation creditor group the Paris Club, supported by NGO The Nature Conservancy (TNC), for a $22m investment in marine conservation.

The government of Belize followed suit in 2021 by issuing a $364m blue bond – a debt instrument to finance marine and ocean-focused sustainability projects – to buy back $550m of commercial debt to use for marine conservation and debt sustainability.

Then, last year, Barbados completed a $150m transaction, supported by the TNC and the Inter-American Development Bank, allowing the country to reduce its borrowing costs and use savings to finance marine conservation.

“Two or three years ago, we were talking about $50m deals,” says Widge. “Now they have gone to $250–300m, so they are definitely increasing in size and scale.”

Indeed, the success of the deals for the Seychelles, Belize and Barbados, along with the debt distress sweeping across the Global South, has sparked an uptick of interest in the model.

Ecuador is reported to be in negotiations with banks and a non-profit for an $800m deal, and Sri Lanka is discussing a $1bn transaction – which would be the biggest swap to date."

-via Energy Monitor, 2/1/23

Note: I'm leaving out my massive rant about how the vast majority of this debt is due to the damages of colonialism. And also countries being forced to "PAY BACK" COLONIZERS FOR THEIR OWN FREEDOM for decades or in some cases centuries (particularly infuriating example: Haiti). Debt-for-climate swaps are good news, and one way to help right this massive historic and ongoing economic wrong

[transhumandreams]

"Using this method, the researchers from ETH Zurich, together with colleagues from the University of Geneva, obtained new clues to a rare genetic disorder in humans, known as 22q11.2 deletion syndrome. Patients affected by the disease show many different symptoms, typically diagnosed with other conditions such as schizophrenia and autism spectrum disorder. Before now, it was known that a chromosomal region containing 106 genes is responsible for this disease. It was also known that the disease was associated with multiple genes, however, it was not known which of the genes played which part in the disease. For their study in mice, the researchers focused on 29 genes of this chromosomal region that are also active in the mouse brain. In each individual mouse brain cell, they modified one of these 29 genes and then analyzed the RNA profiles of those brain cells. The scientists were able to show that three of these genes are largely responsible for the dysfunction of brain cells. In addition, they found patterns in the mouse cells that are reminiscent of schizophrenia and autism spectrum disorders. Among the three genes, one was already known, but the other two had not previously been the focus of much scientific attention. “If we know which genes in a disease have abnormal activity, we can try to develop drugs that compensate for that abnormality,” says António Santinha, a doctoral student in Platt’s group and lead author of the study."

[kp777]

By Brett Wilkins

Common Dreams

Sept. 29, 2023

"The endorsement of the fossil fuel treaty proposal by Antigua and Barbuda and Timor-Leste... shows who are the real climate leaders," said the initiative's political director.

Two island nations on Saturday joined the growing bloc of countries endorsing a fossil fuel nonproliferation treaty amid a worsening climate emergency and continued inadequate action by the larger and wealthier polluters most responsible for causing the planetary crisis.

Answering United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres' exhortation at this week's Climate Ambition Summit for countries to accelerate efforts to end fossil fuels, the Caribbean nation of Antigua and Barbuda and Timor-Leste in Southeast Asia announced their support for a binding FFNPT.

Their announcement came on the main stage at the Global Citizen Festival in New York City. The nations became the first non-Pacific island states to support the treaty; Vanuatu, Tuvalu, Tonga, Fiji, the Solomon Islands, and the self-governing New Zealand territory of Niue previously endorsed the agreement.

"The climate crisis is the most existential threat facing all humanity," declared Antigua and Barbuda Prime Minister Gaston Browne. "It doesn't distinguish between European forests and Caribbean waters. Some carry the burden more than others, as in the case of small island developing states. This is why today I'm honored to announce that Antigua and Barbuda join our Pacific friends in calling for a negotiation of a fossil fuel treaty."

"This Treaty will be more than words," Browne continued. "It's a binding plan to end the fossil fuel era, a pledge to a rapid shift to clean energy, a commitment to a future where economies transcend their fossil fuel past, and an assurance that no community is left behind."

"With this endorsement, we send a clear message: unity in purpose, unity in action," he added. "We are proud to become the first Caribbean nation to rally behind this cause, and we invite others to join us."

Timor-Leste President José Ramos-Horta said that his country "stands in solidarity with Pacific nations and is formally joining the call for the negotiation of a fossil fuel treaty."

"Its mission is simple—to halt new fossil fuel ventures, phase out existing ones, and fund a fair shift to clean energy," the Nobel peace laureate added. "It is more than a climate agreement between nations—it is a health, development, and peace accord that can foster genuine well-being and prosperity for all."

Timor-Leste's embrace of the FFNPT is considered especially encouraging, as petroleum accounts for the vast majority of the country's export revenue.

Gillian Cooper, political director of the FFNPT Initiative, hailed the development:

At the Climate Ambition Summit, we saw world leaders finally bring fossil fuels to the center stage of climate negotiations. Now the endorsement of the fossil fuel treaty proposal by Antigua and Barbuda and Timor-Leste at the main Global Citizen stage shows who are the real climate leaders. This bold move also shows that even fossil fuel-producing countries want to break free from the grip of oil, gas, and coal, a system imposed on them by wealthy nations. Today Timor-Leste picked a side—and they're clearly saying that we need international cooperation so they are not forced by the fossil fuel industry to continue to expand a product that they know is destablizing the global climate and creating long-term economic dependency and vulnerability.

Launched in 2020 and backed by hundreds of groups, thousands of scientists, and people around the world from youth to grandparents, the FFNPT is based on three pillars:

Ending expansion of new coal, oil, or gas production in line with the best available science;

Phasing out the production of fossil fuels in a manner that is fair and equitable; and

Ensuring a global just transition to 100% access to renewable energy globally.

In addition to the countries mentioned above, the European Parliament, World Health Organization, and scores of cities and other subnational governments have also endorsed the FFNPT, including London, Paris, Los Angeles, Sydney, Lima, Toronto, and the Hawaiian Legislature.

Earlier this month, California became the largest economy in the world to endorse the treaty.

"This climate crisis is a fossil fuel crisis," Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom said Wednesday at the Climate Ambition Summit. "It's not complicated. It's the burning of oil. It's the burning of gas. It's the burning of coal. And we need to call that out.

[ukrainenews]

Daily Wrap Up February 2-6, 2023

Under the cut:

116 soldiers returned to Ukraine in prisoner exchange, says Kyiv

A new US military aid package for Ukraine worth more than $2.175bn includes a new rocket that would double Ukraine’s strike range, according to a US official. The Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB) will be provided to Ukraine as part of Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), Brig Gen Patrick Ryder told a news briefing.

Two Russian missiles hit the centre of Kharkiv, the administrative capital of the Kharkiv region in Ukraine's northeast, with one of the missiles striking a residential building, local officials said on Sunday.

Repair crews were working round the clock to restore power systems in the Black Sea port of Odesa following a fire that left hundreds of thousands of residents without electricity, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Sunday.

Ukrainian officials will conduct a complete internal audit of procurements made by the country's armed forces, Ukraine's defense minister said, after a recent string of anti-corruption raids.

Ukrainian troops will begin training with the Leopard tanks from Monday, Ukraine's Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov announced.

A drone exploded early Monday in the Russian city of Kaluga, Vladislav Shapsha, the governor of the region, said in a post on his official Telegram channel.

The UN’s secretary general, António Guterres, has warned the world is walking into a “wider war” over Ukraine during a speech presenting his 2023 priorities.

“116 soldiers returned to Ukraine in prisoner exchange, says Kyiv. The head of Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s office, Andriy Yermak, has said that Ukraine has got 116 soldiers back as part of a prisoner of war swap.

Earlier on Saturday, Russia said it had got 63 PoWs back in an exchange.

Yermak posted a video of soldiers on a bus, along with them posing with flags in the snow outside. He said they were “defenders of Mariupol, Kherson partisans [and] snipers from Bakhmut vicinities”.”-via The Guardian

~

“A new US military aid package for Ukraine worth more than $2.175bn includes a new rocket that would double Ukraine’s strike range, according to a US official.

The Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB) will be provided to Ukraine as part of Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), Brig Gen Patrick Ryder told a news briefing.

The GLSDB’s range is 94 miles (151 km), double that of Ukraine’s current longest-range weapon, the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS), whose rockets can travel 48 miles (77 km).

A greater range would allow Ukraine’s military to strike deep behind the frontlines of the war, attacking Russian forces from a greater distance or potentially penetrating more deeply into Russian-held territory.

The GLSDB will put all of Russia’s supply lines in the east of the country within reach, as well as part of Russian-occupied Crimea.

It will force Russia to move its supplies farther from the frontlines, which could make its soldiers more vulnerable and complicate plans for any new offensive.”-via The Guardian

~

“Two Russian missiles hit the centre of Kharkiv, the administrative capital of the Kharkiv region in Ukraine's northeast, with one of the missiles striking a residential building, local officials said on Sunday.

"A residential building in the city center was hit. A fire broke out. So far, three victims are known: a 54-year-old woman and two men aged 51 and 55," Kharkiv governor Oleh Synehubov said on the Telegram messaging platform.

He said the woman was hospitalized with shrapnel wounds.”-via Reuters

~

“Repair crews were working round the clock to restore power systems in the Black Sea port of Odesa following a fire that left hundreds of thousands of residents without electricity, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Sunday.

The mass blackout — though attributable to a fire — was one of many that have hit Ukraine's grid since Russia focused in October on attacking energy infrastructure as part of its invasion of Ukraine.

"Repair work is going on round the clock. The situation at this time is that hundreds of thousands of people in Odesa region are without power," Zelenskiy said in his nightly video address.

Zelenskiy said that such disruptions in Ukrainian cities "could not have happened" before the onset of Russian attacks on power generation sites over several weeks, some of which involved dozens of missiles at a time.

"Repair work is going on round the clock. The situation at this time is that hundreds of thousands of people in Odesa region are without power," Zelenskiy said in his nightly video address.

Zelenskiy said that such disruptions in Ukrainian cities "could not have happened" before the onset of Russian attacks on power generation sites over several weeks, some of which involved dozens of missiles at a time.

Zelenskiy did not say how long the repair works would take, but Ukrainian officials said earlier they could take weeks.”-via Reuters

~

“Ukrainian officials will conduct a complete internal audit of procurements made by the country's armed forces, Ukraine's defense minister said, after a recent string of anti-corruption raids.

“We have launched an internal audit that checks all procurement systems. It is still in progress," Minister of Defence Oleksii Reznikov said. "And I think that within a week, they should officially complete the audit of all of the procedures for February. Then they will audit everything. And then, it will be 'put on the table' for appropriate decisions."

Some context: President Volodymyr Zelensky's recent anti-corruption push is viewed as a key step toward Ukraine’s possible admission into the European Union.

Rooting out corruption is “an important dimension of the EU accession process,” said Ana Pisonero, a spokesperson for the European Commission, on Jan. 24.

Ukrainian authorities uncovered stashes of cash, as well as luxury watches and cars, during raids carried out across the country last month.

Among those caught up in the investigations is the acting head of the Kyiv tax authority, who was allegedly part of a scheme to overlook $1.2 billion worth of Ukrainian hryvnia in unpaid taxes.”-via CNN

~

“Ukrainian troops will begin training with the Leopard tanks from Monday, Ukraine's Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov announced.

Speaking to reporters during a news conference in Kyiv, he said: “We are accumulating reserves and working on training more personnel, getting the Western weapons.”

Reznikov also warned of an upcoming Russian offensive. “We expect an offensive. It's February, and Russians love symbolism. We expect this pressure from them, and we are ready,” he said.

But tanks are not the only weapons Ukraine needs to defend itself from enemy bombardment. According to Reznikov, it needs long-range weapons reaching 150 kilometers that must be "more effective and active." The maximum range of the current artillery provided by the West is 144 km.

On Thursday, US officials said the US was expected to announce a new Ukraine security package worth approximately $2.2 billion that will include longer-range missiles in a first for the country.

But these will not reach the distance Ukraine is asking for out of fear longer-ranging weapons -- like the sought after ATACMS missile -- will be used to hit targets in Russia, which Reznikov refuted.

“I want to emphasize that we promise our partners not to use long-range systems to hit targets on Russian territory, only on the Ukrainian territory which Russians occupied,” he assured.

Speaking of the military aid Ukraine has received, Reznikov said they had been given "almost everything" in terms of weapons except for fighter jets, which he is certain they will get.

Ukraine is not a NATO member, but in this war has become a "NATO country de facto," he said, receiving weapons, standards and digital systems. "The only thing left to do is to be accepted in the alliance de jure,” Reznikov added.”-via CNN

~

“A drone exploded early Monday in the Russian city of Kaluga, Vladislav Shapsha, the governor of the region, said in a post on his official Telegram channel.

"Tonight, residents on the outskirts of Kaluga heard a pop [popping sound]. It was established that at 5 a.m. in a forest near the city, a drone exploded in the air at a height of 50 meters," Shapsha said.

The governor didn't provide any additional details about the drone or its suspected origin.

The city of Kaluga is about 200 kilometers (or about 124 miles) southwest from Moscow.

"There was no damage to civilian and social facilities. There were no casualties. Representatives of law enforcement agencies are working on the ground," he said.”-via CNN

~

“The UN’s secretary general, António Guterres, has warned the world is walking into a “wider war” over Ukraine during a speech presenting his 2023 priorities.

Addressing the UN general assembly just weeks before the first anniversary of Russia’s 24 February invasion of Ukraine, Guterres described the war as “inflicting untold suffering on the Ukrainian people, with profound global implications”.

He said:

The prospects for peace keep diminishing. The chances of further escalation and bloodshed keep growing. I fear the world is not sleepwalking into a wider war. I fear it is doing so with its eyes wide open.”

-via The Guardian

[warningsine]

Fighting in Sudan has continued for nearly two weeks since it began on April 15, when violence broke out between the country's army and a paramilitary group called the Rapid Support Forces.

The two are engaged in a power struggle over who gets to run the resource-rich nation that sits at the crossroads between North Africa, the Sahel, the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea.

Previously the warring factions were allies who united after a massive people-power revolution in 2019 to overthrow longtime Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir. They promised a transition to democracy — but instead toppled the country's transitional civilian government in a second coup in 2021.

Since then, they have been at odds over plans for a new transition and the integration of the RSF into the regular army. Their fight this month has led to more than 400 deaths and turned the capital's once-quiet residential streets into a disaster zone.

"This is a power projection between Sudan's two most powerful armed forces," says Ahmed Soliman, Horn of Africa researcher at British think tank Chatham House.

Here are some key things to know about the conflict and its likely impact on the region — and beyond.

Who are the generals fighting each other?

Leading the opposing forces are the Sudanese Army's Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan and the RSF's Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, better known by his nickname, Hemedti.

Both served under Bashir and played key roles in the counterinsurgency that began in Sudan's Darfur region in 2003.

Burhan received military training in both Jordan and Egypt. He became the de facto ruler of Sudan as head of the Sovereign Council, a civilian-military partnership created after the popular uprising that deposed Bashir in 2019.

Dagalo rose through the ranks of the notorious Sudanese Arab Janjaweed militia, which is accused of committing atrocities during the 16-year war in Darfur.

He went on to lead Bashir's private militia, but after the mass uprising in 2019, joined Burhan in deposing his former boss.

"The clashes that we're seeing ... are in part the result of these two autocratic leaders' actions, who not only are in charge of vast armies and control much of the state's economy, but which have also been emboldened over the last three years by being key stakeholders in the political process," says Soliman.

They have, he says, "framed themselves as reformers, protectors of Sudan and guardians of its democratic transition and its revolution — falsely so."

What's the humanitarian situation?

The fighting has caused a humanitarian crisis, as people have been forced to remain largely in their homes, only occasionally able to use a pause in the battles to stock up — if they can — on essential supplies like water, food and medicine. While Khartoum has borne the brunt of the fighting, there has also been unrest in other areas, and there are concerns it could awaken conflict in Darfur.

Numerous countries, including the U.S., have closed their embassies and evacuated their personnel. The United Nations has also moved most of its foreign staff out of the country, but the chief of mission has remained in place to push for an end to the fighting.

ombings and gun battles have been taking place in the heart of the capital Khartoum, in residential neighborhoods, with buildings badly damaged.

Alyona Synenko, Africa spokesperson for the International Committee of the Red Cross, says morgues have been filling up. "There have been dead bodies that were in the streets for days and also the morgues are full with the dead," she says. "We are looking at thousands of people who were wounded and the healthcare system in Sudan is on the verge of collapse, or I think we could safely say, collapsing."

There has been a mass prison break from one of the country's main jails, which housed former members of the Bashir regime responsible for rights abuses. And the World Health Organization says one of the warring parties has seized a laboratory which contains measles, polio and cholera isolates, creating a "high risk of biological hazard."

Some 70% of hospitals are not functioning, Dr. Attiya Abdullah, secretary of the Sudan Doctors Trade Union, tells NPR. Health staff have been killed and hospitals are out of electricity or water, with no fuel for generators, he says.

Soaring food and fuel prices are exacerbating problems for ordinary Sudanese.

Tens of thousands are trying to flee to safety, mainly to neighboring Chad and South Sudan, says Faith Kasina, regional spokesperson for the U.N. refugee agency.

"At least 20,000 Sudanese have arrived in Chad and nearly 4,000 South Sudanese refugees have returned to South Sudan. ... These new arrivals are placing additional strain on these countries that already have public services and resources significantly overstretched," she says.

"The teams that we have at the border locations, in mainly South Sudan and Chad, tell us they're witnessing a very dire situation. That people are essentially coming in exhausted, coming in scared. The majority of those that are arriving are women and children... We're seeing cases where people are staying out in the open, under the trees."

What's at stake in the region and beyond?

International diplomats are struggling to bring Sudan back from the brink. Secretary of State Antony Blinken says he has spoken to both generals directly. The African Union is also involved in negotiations. But the U.N. head of mission, Volker Perthes, said this week neither side seemed serious about negotiating.

U.N. Secretary General António Guterres warned on Tuesday the violence could spread to other countries in the region, saying: "It is lighting a fuse that could detonate across borders, causing immense suffering for years, and setting development back for decades."

Sudan is surrounded by a host of fragile states, either in conflict or emerging from it. Before the fall of Bashir, the U.S. long considered Sudan a state sponsor of terrorism.

"Having a stable Sudan that looks to the United States as a partner, as a core partner, that's incredibly strategic," says Susan Stigant, who runs the Africa programs at the U.S. Institute of Peace.

And it's not only Washington that wants to see an end to the fighting. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have financial interests in Sudan. Egypt shares a long border and a significant source of water — the Nile.

China and Sudan have long had a relationship stemming from the North African state's export of oil. Beijing is Sudan's second-biggest trading partner and has considerable investments in the country.

The Russian mercenary group Wagner, which has links to the Kremlin, also has a presence in Sudan, mainly involving guarding Russian-run mines as well as gold smuggling. The group denies any involvement in the conflict.

Russia also has other interests in the country, with Moscow planning to build a military base in Port Sudan on the Red Sea.

How might the current conflict play out?

Many analysts believe that Sudan is headed for a prolonged period of conflict, given that neither general is likely to relinquish power easily.

The many Sudanese who participated in the pro-democracy movement are devastated to see their hopes of a transition back to civilian rule imperiled, but members of the country's so-called resistance committees, which organized the 2019 and post-coup protests, say they're not giving up.

Despite multiple calls for an end to hostilities, several cease-fires have failed. The latest, announced earlier this week, has seen a lull in fighting but not a complete halt.

A number of countries have offered to mediate and get the two generals to the negotiating table. But given how far the leaders have gone in denouncing each other, it's believed they are unlikely to give up their struggle for power now.

Some analysts say this conflict has been long in the making.

Cameron Hudson, a former U.S. official who has worked on Sudan, thinks the U.S. miscalculated by putting too much trust in what the generals said about their commitment to restoring civilian control.

"To see it kind of fall apart now and the whole country kind of go up in flames, I think is, you know, is a real bad signal for the ability of the United States and its allies to help bring about these kinds of transitions, not only in Sudan but all across the region," says Hudson, now with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Mohamed Osman, a researcher on Sudan at Human Right Watch, says the world should have seen this coming.

"Both forces come with a long legacy of abuse," he says. "The unfortunate part is that the former government, the transitional government, failed to address this legacy of abuse, failed to embark upon security sector reform, alike with the international actors who continued to prioritize politics of appeasement."

[bullet-prooflove]

Chasing Fires - Brian ‘Otis’ Zvonecek: Chapter Eleven

Brian Zvonecek has spent most of his adult life fighting fires, now it’s time to chase one.

Follows on from Million Reasons but is a stand alone fic.

Tagging   @orileyfiction for all her help and support! Also @me-ladie​ for being the wonderful person she is and betaing.

- Chapter One

- Chapter Two

- Chapter Three

- Chaper Four

- Chapter Five

- Chapter Six

- Chapter Seven

- Chapter Eight

- Chapter Nine

- Chapter Ten

“I hate this case.” Kat said as she sat behind the wheel of the pool car, her fingertips drumming on the steering wheel. 

Antonio said nothing, he simply stared straight ahead, the back of his hand pressed to his mouth. She’d worked with him long enough to know that he was puzzling something over his head, trying to make the pieces fit. 

They were still parked outside of Chicago Med after interviewing Tawney Darrens. The incident had been the same as the one at the Clifford residence, nitrous oxide in her system. The rape kit was pending but there were signs, there were always signs. 

It was cases like this that always made her think about Eve, about the aftermath of the brutality. The act itself stole something away from you, broke you down so that you’d never be the same again. Some people recovered, some people didn’t, there was no way of telling which way Tawney would go.

“Her affect was off.” Antonio said quietly. “Something about her story doesn’t make sense.”

“Are you serious?” Kat snapped. “Her affect was off?” 

Antonio tilted his head towards her, his jaw tensing. He was squaring off for a fight, she could tell from the tension in his shoulders. The savage side of her rose to meet the challenge because he didn’t know, he had never seen it.

“Kat…”

“Don’t.”

“Kat, she isn’t Eve.”

There was a silence between them, it hung in the air crackling like an electrical storm before Kat spoke. 

“Since when did we stop believing the victim?” She asked him, fingers curling around the steering wheel and gripping it so tightly the skin of her knuckles pulled taunt. 

“That’s not what this is.” Antonio told her.

“It sounds like it.”

“You’re too close to this.” He retorted, his voice starting to simmer. 

“A fourteen-year-old girl was raped,” she exploded. “In a place where she was supposed to feel safe, did you know she won’t even sleep in her bedroom anymore? Her father is back at the precinct desperate for any news because he can’t face thinking that he brought this down on them, that somehow, he brought this person into their homes, and I can’t tell him otherwise. Am I not supposed to be angry?”

“You have the right to your anger, you have the right to want to fight and rage and scream but you also have a duty, a duty to keep a clear head, to investigate, to look at things logically and survey all the angles. If you can’t do that then I have no choice but to recommend to Voight that he bench you,” Antonio told her, his voice firm.  “Now I don’t want to do that, but I will if you force my hand. Are we clear about that?”

“I’m not going to put up and shut up Antonio.”

“And I wouldn’t expect you to. What I’m asking for is for you to take a breath and listen to me.” He tapped a finger on his chest. “As your partner.”

Kat sucked in a deep breath through her nose and exhaled out of her mouth, feeling her shoulders relax as she did. That rage, that need to vent was beginning to ebb away, she could feel it flowing out of her system as she took another breath. 

 “Tawney saw their faces.” Kat said, tapping her fingers on the steering column. “She confirmed that Spence wasn’t involved, which sucks because I was positive, he was…”

“Yea, me too.” António agreed.

When I woke up, I had this pain…

The voice played in her head, an echo of Caroline’s statement. All that rage, all that anguish it bubbled up to the surface once more, pulsing underneath her skin.

“I want them, Antonio.” Kat told him, starting the engine of the car. “I want them to pay for what they did.”

“So do I, Kat.” He said, his hand back by his mouth. “So do I.”

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

“The rape kit isn’t back yet.” Antonio said, tapping the whiteboard with the drywipe marker. “But Tawney’s blood is positive for nitrous oxide.”

Kat was seated at her desk, her hands laced together as she fixated on the pictures of both Tawney and Caroline underneath the Victims headline. There was a tension in her body, it made her knee vibrate under the desk as she reviewed the file on her computer, bringing up the latest up to date information on the case.

“You know what I don’t get?” Al asked, leaning against his desk, and folding his arms over his chest. “Tawney was a post grad student staying at an AirBnB, she had no valuables there so why target her. She doesn’t fit the victimology of the other robberies.”

“It could be that the rape has become the more prominent aspect.” Burgess said, pointing her pen in the direction of the board. 

“It seems to be the work of one perp from what we saw at the Cliffords.” Atwater told them. “He’s the only one that goes upstairs and into the bedroom. The other two just trash the place and grab what they can.”

“We had to kick Spence this morning because we had him in custody at the time of the latest robbery.” Voight said from the opposite side of the whiteboard, tapping the picture of the man under the Suspects column. “I still like him for this, maybe not for the rape but he’s involved in some way.”

“I’ve been going through the Pod footage in the Clifford’s neighbourhood leading up to the robbery. There was nothing suspicious until I had a second incident to compare it to.” Halstead told them, tilting the screen of his monitor to show the others. “There’s a 2003 black suburban parked outside of both condos for two hours the day before the robberies.” 

“You think they were casing the place.” Kat said, tapping her pen against the desk as she took in Halstead’s words. 

Halstead pushed away from his desk before swinging by the printer and plucking a sheet of paper out of it. He placed it in the Suspects column, pinning it to the board with a magnet.

“I ran the plates, and they came back to Ty Henley, five years ago he was a person of interest in two sexual assault cases out of Wisconsin.” 

“Mouse track down his phone, his credit cards, anything that will get a lead on him.”  Voight ordered. “Jay, get on the car. Kat take some mugshots over to Tawney, see if we can get an I.D from her.”

“On it.” Kat saluted before turning her attention to her computer to compile an A3  document of mugshots.

[mygainyear2024]

Day 10 Ferragudo - Azulejar (tile making)

Tile painting with Carla at Arti Arte Azulejar in the village of Ferragudo was a fantastic three hour activity for €35. I was joined by a family of French speakers, a couple and one of their mums. Carla did a great job running the class in English and French. We quickly covered the history of tiles and their purpose in Portugal (to share messages and to keep the houses cool) - with the early influence coming from Spain, then China (hence all the blue and white) and then from the Moors. We got to make two tiles, either by creating our own design or using Carla's stencils. I went for the latter as I'm not that arty. Although I did see a tile in the most picturesque street, Rua Doutor Luiz António dos Santos, that I wanted to recreate. Carla said it was one of hers, but it's quite hard!

To create your own design, the design is first drawn with pencil onto parchment paper and then turned over onto styrofoam and the outline is pricked with a pin. The stencil is then placed on the tile and rubbed with pencil dust to reveal the outline. I won't reveal my finished tiles just yet, as they are now being fired at over 1000° and I can collect them after Saturday.

On Carla's recommendation I went to A Ria for lunch and chose the grilled medallions of monkfish and prawns (well one big one) with vinho verde, and it was delicious. The monkfish, this time, had more of the texture of crayfish as mentioned by someone I met last week and tastier than The Chicken Tavern, but it was a tad more expensive, meal, bread and wine €25.80, but so worth it.

I couldn't resist gelato at Gelataria Di Vera - choosing what might be the best pistachio I've ever had (the secret - salt) and dark chocolate.

Today I walked 25,561 steps. It was an interesting offline Maps.me journey across the sand dunes, which I discovered was a popular trail for dirt bikes, as one came hurling towards me. Thankfully I wasn't listening to a podcast and heard it before I saw it!

I can see the village of Ferragudo from where I'm staying on the other side of Arade River.

[earaercircular]

Garbage that is not garbage: the circular economy gives a second life to waste in Paraguay

Citizens of the capital register to be part of the families that contribute to the environment since the summer of 2022.

Civil society and private companies organise to manage waste, given the lack of effectiveness of public institutions

It is estimated that we generate more than 2,000 million tons of solid waste per year, but only 55% is managed in controlled facilities. “Humanity treats our planet like a garbage dump, we are destroying our only home,” declared the Secretary General of the United Nations, António Guterres, on March 30 on the first International Zero Waste Day[1], that encourages people, companies and Governments to prevent and minimise waste, promoting the circular economy. The UN highlights that this mainly affects the impoverished population and especially the almost 4 billion people who do not have access to controlled waste disposal facilities.

In Paraguay it is not recycled at origin. Less than 1% of households do so. There is a lack of environmental education and there are hardly any differentiated containers. There are also no official facilities to separate waste in an organised way. Collection does not reach all areas or does so infrequently and the garbage ends up burned, buried, in open fields or in the channels of the many Paraguayan rivers. In the best of cases, it reaches an official landfill, where the hands of thousands of people who work informally dissect it in search of the precious recyclable materials that they will sell to earn their bread. They are the so-called gancheros, the lowest link in the Paraguayan recycling chain. According to data from the Moisés Bertoni Foundation[2], of the 111,000 people who are dedicated to the waste recovery sector in Paraguay, 100,000 are basic recyclers and waste pickers. Both obtain recyclable materials and sell them for little money to recovery companies, intermediaries and recycling centres.

Gancheros[3] at the base of the recycling chain

Dominga Céspedes is 64 years old and has been a garbage collector for more than two decades in Cateura[4], the Asunción[5] garbage dump, the largest in Paraguay. Every morning she climbs the mountain of trash in front of her house with gloved hands to sift through other people's waste. “I like my job, although it is very hard because it is very hot from 8 in the morning. We work with sun, rain and mud.” She is the leader of the Municipal Landfill Workers Association (Asotravermu)[6], one of the three main organizations of gancheros in the area, along with Cosigapar and Sigren. “In total, we are more than 500 members, women and men aged 18 and over. We have regulations and statutes, so as not to kill ourselves over material. If someone has bad behaviour, they are suspended for a few days,” she explains. Cateura is in the belt of misery that surrounds Asunción, in Bañado Sur, where, like Céspedes, thousands of impoverished people live who subsist with irregular and precarious jobs. The garbage dump gained international fame thanks to the renowned Cateura orchestra, with instruments made from waste[7] in which the children of those who barely make a living sifting through the garbage play. It opened in 1985, and has reached maximum capacity. Since 2020, it has operated as a Transfer Plant, an intermediate point where valuable waste is separated before taking the rest to the final place for disposal, in the nearby municipality of Villa Hayes.

Cateura accumulates environmental disasters, such as the fire in September 2020, when a huge cloud of toxic smoke affected the entire city. Since the late nineties there have been municipal projects to close the landfill and environmentally recover the area. But hundreds of people who survive thanks to being surrounded by garbage fear to lose their source of income. “In Bañado Sur we live by recycling and I hope it never ends,” says Céspedes, who asks for more institutional support: “We want our work to be dignified and for the Government to help us. We would like them to set up a recycling plant and work as a cooperative, collecting the garbage that people separate from home,” she says. What worries gancheros most lately is the international smuggling of recycled materials, which is causing prices to plummet. “They bring recycled materials from countries like Argentina to sell cheaper to companies and that affects us. In recent years, I have gone from earning about 1 million guaraníes -127 euros- a week, to earning about 400 guaraníes -50 euros-”, claims Céspedes.

Environmental protection

Cateura is very close to the Paraguay River, in a flood-prone area. “It was installed there nothing more and nothing less than on the recommendation of the World Bank, but it is very dangerous,” says David Cardozo, graduate in Environmental Sciences, professor of landscaping at the School of Architecture of the National University of Asunción (UNA)[8] and Director General Environmental Management of the Municipality of Asunción until 2020. There is a risk of leakage and it is highly flammable, due to the type of waste and the gases concentrated under the ground. "We should not occupy the water territory, not even with human settlements, much less with a landfill." He recognizes that, although Paraguay has had a robust Comprehensive Solid Waste Management Law since 2009, there is a lack of control and it is not enforced.

A lot of garbage ends up anywhere and without proper treatment. Poor waste disposal is associated with several urban problems. For example, in trash-filled streams, stagnant water hosts mosquitoes that transmit tropical diseases. Paraguay has recently suffered several dengue epidemics and the 2023 chikungunya epidemic was the largest in the country. Furthermore, when it rains, the flow carries garbage and clogs storm drains. “First we destroyed our natural waterways and paved the entire city, and then we clogged them with garbage. That generates a lot of flooding,” explains Cardozo, who maintains that cities must be thought of taking the environment into account. He quotes the concept of biodiversity, promoted by CAF-Development Bank of Latin America[9]. Cities that incorporate local and regional biodiversity in their planning to restore the balance between urban management and nature.

Although Cardozo is one of those who thinks that the best thing we can do to combat the increase in global garbage is to reduce consumption and would prefer to trust public institutions rather than what he believes are possible false solutions, he is aware of the Paraguayan reality and welcomes the recent appearance of several recycling and circular economy initiatives. “Garbage that isn't garbage,” he calls it.

Circular economy: the business of recycling

“In the wrong hands, materials are garbage, in the right ones they are resources,” says Mauricio Solalinde, civil engineer and manager of Circular Economy at the Moises Bertoni Foundation, which has been dedicated to sustainable development for 32 years. “Faced with the inaction and void of Paraguayan public policy, the private sector is mobilising,” he explains. In 2021, they launched the My neighbourhood without waste initiative[10], that promotes recycling in Asunción. “In Paraguay there are other waste circular economy initiatives such as Latitud R[11] or Ecological Solutions[12], but this is the largest waste recovery project in the country, by volume of investment, results and presence,” he maintains. According to data from the Moisés Bertoni Foundation, in 2022 they recovered more than 4,000 tons of materials, reaching 400 homes, 100 companies and 20 recyclers who can be contacted via WhatsApp to request a home collection service. The 2023 goal is to reach more than 500 homes, 150 companies, increase the number of recyclers and recover 10,000 tons of materials such as plastic, metal, paper and glass.

The first thing they did to enter the recycling ecosystem is to be clear about the national panorama. “In Paraguay there is a lack of data and what there is is obsolete. The Ministry of the Environment does a study every 10 years in one of the 263 municipalities,” argues Solalinde. He says that the institutionality of the Moisés Bertoni Foundation enabled them to obtain data directly from private organisations under a confidentiality agreement and, after analysing it, in 2022 they began to develop public policy as a group promoting the circular economy in Paraguay. “We brought together the ministries of Industry, Commerce and Environment, and we coordinated a multi-sector space with public institutions, the productive private sector and civil society. We work on four strategic axes: sustainable production, responsible consumption, inclusive recycling and public policy,” he concludes.

They have the support of the Paraguayan Government, the United Nations and the IDB (Inter-American Development Bank), but the correct management of garbage is not only a social and environmental issue, it also generates a lot of money. Companies such as Coca Cola, Nestlé and Tetra Pak are behind the My waste-free neighbourhood initiative, which         explains that it works thanks to the market economy. Large companies are interested in investing to recover the precious raw materials that are hidden in garbage bags.

Source

Paula López Barba, Basura que no es basura: la economía circular da una segunda vida a los residuos en Paraguay in: El País, 7-11-2023 https://elpais.com/america-futura/2023-11-07/basura-que-no-es-basura-la-economia-circular-da-una-segunda-vida-a-los-residuos-en-paraguay.html

[1] The United Nations General Assembly on 14 December 2022 formally recognized the importance of zero-waste initiatives and proclaimed 30 March as the International Day of Zero Waste, to be observed annually beginning in 2023. Zero-waste initiatives can foster sound waste management and minimize and prevent waste. https://www.unep.org/events/un-day/international-day-zero-waste-2023#:~:text=The%20United%20Nations%20General%20Assembly,and%20minimize%20and%20prevent%20waste.

[2] The Moises Bertoni Foundation was established in January 1988 in memory of Moisés Santiago Bertoni, as an environmental foundation and conservation, aiming to contribute to the protection and sustainable development of natural resources in Paraguay. The Foundation is a nonprofit organization that specializes in sustainable development and manages the Mbaracayu Natural Forest Reserve, the largest continuous remnant of the Interior Atlantic Forest in Paraguay. The foundation focuses on promoting environmental, social, and economic development, in an effort to overcome the dominant paradigm of conservation as something separate from human activity.[

[3] A "ganchero" is a person who goes through trash looking for recyclables.

[4] Cateura is the name of the landfill of Asunción, created in 1984 by the municipality of the capital of Paraguay, whose name comes from the Cateura lagoon, which is located near the property, private access, which has become landfill.

[5] Asunción is the capital and the largest city of Paraguay. The city stands on the eastern bank of the Paraguay River, almost at the confluence of this river with the Pilcomayo River. The Paraguay River and the Bay of Asunción in the northwest separate the city from the Occidental Region of Paraguay and from Argentina in the south part of the city. The rest of the city is surrounded by the Central Department.

[6] Asociación de Trabajadores del Vertedero Municipal (Asotravermu)

[7] Read also: https://www.tumblr.com/earaercircular/670483604574437376/the-orchestra-that-transforms-garbage-into-sound?source=share

[8][8] https://www.una.py/english

[9] The Corporacion Andina de Fomento (CAF) – Banco de Desarrollo de América Latina y el Caribe (Portuguese: Corporação Andina de Fomento (CAF) – Banco de Desenvolvimento da América Latina e Caribe, is a development bank that has a mission of stimulating sustainable development and regional integration by financing projects in the public and private sectors in Latin America and the Caribbean, and providing technical cooperation and other specialized services. Founded in 1970 and currently with 20 member countries from Latin America, the Caribbean, and Europe along with 13 private banks, CAF is one of the main sources of multilateral financing and an important generator of knowledge for the region.CAF is headquartered in Caracas, Venezuela.

[10] Mi barrio sin residuos. My Zero Waste Neighbourhood. It is a platform that offers a comfortable and simple alternative to implement the habit of recycling in neighbourhoods of Asunción. We seek to connect homes, businesses, companies and educational institutions with recyclers who carry out the collection of recyclable materials. The objective is to achieve a cleaner, greener and more sustainable city, and to support the work and economic support of various grassroots recyclers and associations of recyclers existing in Asunción. https://mibarriosinresiduos.com.py/

[11] Latitud R is the main regional platform for the articulation of actions, investments and knowledge regarding Inclusive Recycling. Its purpose is to contribute to the development of inclusive recycling systems with economic, social and environmental sustainability throughout the continent, contributing to the formalization and improvement of conditions for grassroots recyclers, and the development of the Circular Economy in Latin America. https://latitudr.org/quienes-somos/

[12] We are a social company specialized in the management of Recyclable Solid Waste, betting on inclusive recycling and the circular economy. We seek to raise awareness and citizen participation about the correct management of solid waste, from how it is generated to recycling. https://www.solucionesecologicas.com.py/soluciones-ecologicas-nosotros

[brookstonalmanac]

Events 10.29 (before 1950)

312 – Constantine the Great enters Rome after his victory at the Battle of the Milvian Bridge, stages a grand adventus in the city, and is met with popular jubilation. Maxentius' body is fished out of the Tiber and beheaded. 437 – Valentinian III, Western Roman Emperor, marries Licinia Eudoxia, daughter of his cousin Theodosius II, Eastern Roman Emperor in Constantinople unifying the two branches of the House of Theodosius. 1390 – First trial for witchcraft in Paris leading to the death of three people. 1467 – Battle of Brustem: Charles the Bold defeats Prince-Bishopric of Liège. 1611 – Russian homage to the King of Poland, Sigismund III Vasa. 1618 – English adventurer, writer, and courtier Sir Walter Raleigh is beheaded for allegedly conspiring against James I of England. 1621 – The London Pageant of 1621 celebrates the inauguration of Edward Barkham (Lord Mayor). 1658 – Second Northern War: Naval forces of the Dutch Republic defeat the Swedes in the Battle of the Sound. 1665 – Portuguese forces defeat the Kingdom of Kongo and decapitate King António I of Kongo, also known as Nvita a Nkanga. 1675 – Leibniz makes the first use of the long s (∫) as a symbol of the integral in calculus. 1787 – Mozart's opera Don Giovanni receives its first performance in Prague. 1792 – Mount Hood (Oregon) is named after Samuel Hood, 1st Viscount Hood by Lt. William E. Broughton who sighted the mountain near the mouth of the Willamette River. 1863 – Eighteen countries meet in Geneva and agree to form the International Red Cross. 1863 – American Civil War: Battle of Wauhatchie: Forces under Union General Ulysses S. Grant repel a Confederate attack led by General James Longstreet. Union forces thus open a supply line into Chattanooga, Tennessee. 1888 – The Convention of Constantinople is signed, guaranteeing free maritime passage through the Suez Canal during war and peace. 1901 – In Amherst, Massachusetts, nurse Jane Toppan is arrested for murdering the Davis family of Boston with an overdose of morphine. 1914 – Ottoman entry into World War I. 1918 – The German High Seas Fleet is incapacitated when sailors mutiny, an action which would trigger the German Revolution of 1918–19. 1921 – United States: Second trial of Sacco and Vanzetti in Boston, Massachusetts. 1921 – The Harvard University football team loses to Centre College, ending a 25-game winning streak. This is considered one of the biggest upsets in college football. 1923 – Turkey becomes a republic following the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire. 1929 – Black Tuesday: The New York Stock Exchange crashes, ending the Great Bull Market of the 1920s and beginning the Great Depression. 1941 – The Holocaust: In the Kaunas Ghetto, over 10,000 Jews are shot by German occupiers at the Ninth Fort, a massacre known as the "Great Action". 1942 – The Holocaust: In the United Kingdom, leading clergymen and political figures hold a public meeting to register outrage over Nazi Germany's persecution of Jews. 1944 – The Dutch city of Breda is liberated by 1st Polish Armoured Division. 1944 – World War II: The Soviet Red Army enters Hungary. 1948 – Israeli-Palestinian conflict: Safsaf massacre: Israeli soldiers capture the Palestinian village of Safsaf in the Galilee; afterwards, between 52 and 64 villagers are massacred by the IDF.

[mariacallous]

One of the most persistent arguments put forward by politicians, diplomats, and observers of international politics is that the world is or soon will be multipolar. In recent months, this argument has been made by U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, French President Emmanuel Macron, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Josep Borrell, the European Union’s high representative for foreign affairs, argues that that the world has been a system of “complex multipolarity” ever since the 2008 global financial crisis.

The idea is also being popularized in the business world: Morgan Stanley, the investment bank, recently issued a strategy paper for “navigating a multipolar world,” while INSEAD, a respected European business school, is concerned about leadership skills in such a world.

But despite what politicians, pundits, and investment bankers tell us, it is simply a myth that today’s world is anywhere close to multipolar.

The reasons are straightforward. Polarity simply refers to the number of great powers in the international system—and for the world to be multipolar, there have to be three or more such powers. Today, there are only two countries with the economic size, military might, and global leverage to constitute a pole: the United States and China. Other great powers are nowhere in sight, and they won’t be any time soon. The mere fact that there are rising middle powers and nonaligned countries with large populations and growing economies does not make the world multipolar.

The absence of other poles in the international system is evident if we look at the obvious candidates. In 2021, fast-growing India was the third-largest spender on defense, which is one indicator to measure power. But according to the latest figures from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, its military budget is only one-quarter of China’s. (And China’s numbers may be even higher than commonly believed.) Today, India is still largely concentrated on its own development. It has an undersized foreign service, and its navy—an important yardstick for leverage in the Indo-Pacific—is small compared to China’s, which has launched five times more naval tonnage over the past five years. India may one day be a pole in the system, but that day belongs in the distant future.

Economic wealth is another indicator for the ability to wield power. Japan has the third-largest economy in the world, but according to the latest figures from the International Monetary Fund, its GDP is less than one-quarter of China’s. Germany, India, Britain, and France—the next four largest economies in the world—are even smaller.

Nor is the European Union a third pole, even if that argument has been tirelessly advanced by Macron and many others. European states have varying national interests, and their union is prone to rifts. For all the apparent unity in the European Union’s support for Ukraine, there is simply no unified European defense, security, or foreign policy. There is a reason that Beijing, Moscow, and Washington converse with Paris and Berlin—and rarely seek out Brussels.

Russia is, of course, a potential candidate for great-power status based on its land area, massive natural resources, and huge stockpile of nuclear weapons. The country certainly has an impact beyond its borders—it is waging a major European war and drove Finland and Sweden to join NATO. Nonetheless, with an economy smaller than Italy’s and a military budget equaling only one-quarter of China’s at most, Russia does not qualify as a third pole in the international system. At most, Russia can play a supporting role for China.

A widespread argument among those who believe in multipolarity is the rise of the global south and the shrinking position of the West. However, the presence of old and new middle powers—India, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, and Saudi Arabia are often named as additions to the roster—does not make the system multipolar, since none of these countries has the economic power, military might, and other forms of influence to be a pole of its own. In other words, these countries lack ability to vie with the United States and China.

And while it is true that the United States’ share of the global economy has been receding, it retains a dominant position, especially when considered together with China. The two great powers account for half of the world’s total defense spending, and their combined GDP roughly equals the 33 next-largest economies added together.

The expansion of the BRICS forum at its summit in Johannesburg last month (previously, the block included only Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) is interpreted as a sign that the multipolar order is here or at least being advanced. However, blocs are too heterogeneous to function as poles—and they can easily fall apart. BRICS is nowhere near a coherent bloc, and while member states may share views on the international economic order, they have widely divergent interests in other areas. In security policy—the strongest indicator of alignment—the two largest members, China and India, are at odds. Indeed, Beijing’s rise is driving New Delhi to align itself more closely with the United States.

So, if the world is not multipolar, why is the multipolarity argument so popular? In addition to the lazy way that it ignores facts and concepts about international relations, three obvious explanations stand out.

First, for many people who advance the idea of multipolarity, it is a normative concept. It is another way of saying—or hoping—that the age of Western dominance is over and that power is or should be diffuse. Guterres regards multipolarity as a way to fix multilateralism and bring equilibrium to the world system. For many European leaders, multipolarity is seen as a preferred alternative to bipolarity, because the former is believed to better enable a world governed by rules, allow for global partnerships with diverse actors, and prevent the emergence of new blocs.

Indeed, the multilateral framework is certainly not working the way it is supposed to, and many in the West view the idea of multipolarity as a fairer system, a better way to revive multilateralism, and an opportunity to repair the growing disconnect with the global south. In other words, belief in a multipolarity that does not exist is part of an entire bouquet of hopes and dreams for the global order.

A second reason that the idea of multipolarity is in vogue is that, after three decades of globalization and relative peace, there is a great deal of reluctance among policymakers, commentators, and academics to accept the realities of an intense, all-encompassing, and polarizing bipolar rivalry between the United States and China. In this regard, belief in multipolarity is a kind of intellectual avoidance—and an expression of the wish that there not be another cold war.

Third, talk about multipolarity is often part of a power play. Beijing and Moscow see multipolarity as a way of curtailing U.S. power and advancing their own position. As far back as 1997, when the United States was the dominant power by far, Russia and China signed the Joint Declaration on a Multipolar World and the Establishment of a New International Order. Even though China is a great power today, it still views the United States as its main challenge; together with Moscow, Beijing uses the idea of multipolarity as a way to flatter the global south and attract it to its cause. Multipolarity has been a central theme of China’s diplomatic charm offensive throughout 2023, while Putin declared at the Russia-Africa summit in July that the leaders in attendance had agreed to promote a multipolar world. Similarly, when leaders of rising middle powers promote the idea of multipolarity—such as Lula in Brazil—it is often an attempt to position their country as a leading nonaligned nation.

One might wonder whether polarity—and widespread misconceptions about it—even matter. The simple answer is that the number of poles in the global order matters greatly, and misconceptions obscure strategic thinking, ultimately leading to the wrong policies. Polarity matters for two very important reasons.

First, states face different degrees of constraint on their behavior in unipolar, bipolar, and multipolar systems, requiring different strategies and policies. For instance, the new German national security strategy, released in June, states that the “international and security environment is becoming more multipolar and less stable.” Multipolar systems are indeed regarded as less stable than unipolar and bipolar systems. In multipolar systems, the great powers build alliances and coalitions in order to avoid one state dominating the others, which can lead to continuous realignments and sudden shifts if a major power changes allegiance. In a bipolar system, the two superpowers mainly balance each other out, and they are never in doubt about who the main rival is. We should, therefore, hope that the German strategy paper is wrong.

Polarity matters for businesses as well. Morgan Stanley and INSEAD are preparing their clients and students for a multipolar world, but pursuing multipolar strategies in a system that remains bipolar could prove to be a costly mistake. This is because trade and investment flows can be very different depending on the number of poles. In bipolar systems, the two great powers will be very concerned about relative gains, leading to a more polarized and divided economic order. Each type of order comes with different geopolitical risks, and a mistaken strategy on where a company should build its next factory can be very costly.

Second, advocating a multipolar world when it is clearly bipolar could give the wrong signals to friends and foes alike. The international stir caused by Macron’s statements during his visit to China in April illustrates the point. In an interview on his plane during the flight back to Europe, Macron reportedly emphasized the importance for Europe to become a third superpower. Macron’s willingness to muse about multipolarity did not go down well with French allies in Washington and Europe. His Chinese hosts appeared delighted, but if they confuse Macron’s reflections about multipolarity with French and European willingness to support Beijing in the U.S.-China rivalry, they may have gotten the wrong signals.

A multipolar system may be less overtly polarized than a world with two adversarial superpowers, but it would not necessarily lead to a better world. Instead of being a quick fix for multilateralism, it could just as well lead to further regionalization. Rather than wishing for multipolarity and spending energy on a system that does not exist, a more effective strategy would search for better solutions and platforms for dialogue within the existing bipolar system.

In the long term, the world may indeed become multipolar, with India being the most obvious candidate to join the ranks of the United States and China. Nevertheless, that day is still far off. We will be living in a bipolar world for the foreseeable future—and strategy and policy should be designed accordingly.

[cyberbenb]

Zelensky: Military to strengthen defenses of ports after Odesa strikes

President Volodymyr Zelensky said on July 19 that the military had been instructed to strengthen the security of ports following the Russian strikes against Odesa and elsewhere.

The Foreign Ministry will also work with partners to intensify pressure against Russia to resume the export of Ukrainian grain, the president added.

The statement comes following a Russian night strike against Odesa Oblast, carried out with missiles and kamikaze drones.

Several missiles hit the grain and oil terminal of Odesa’s port, damaging loading equipment. Residential buildings and an industrial facility in the city were damaged as well, the Odesa Oblast Military Administration reported.

According to Odesa Oblast Governor Oleh Kiper, three city residents were injured by debris that fell on residential areas. An employee of the damaged factory and two people in the Kobleve community were also injured, he added.

The State Emergency Service reported later that five city residents total received injuries.

Kiper said that Ukraine’s defenses shot down eight drones and one missile over the oblast, but other projectiles and falling debris nevertheless caused damage.

Turkey, Russia, UN Chief, hold talks on grain deal termination

Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan held talks by phone on July 18 with Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov and U.N. Secretary General António Guterres on Russia’s exit from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, according to Turkish diplomatic sources cited by Anadolu Agency.

The Kyiv IndependentElsa Court

According to Zelensky, Russian forces are deliberately aiming at infrastructure for exporting grain.

“Every Russian missile is a blow not only to Ukraine but also to everyone in the world who seeks a normal and safe life,” the president commented.

Russia withdrew its participation from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which allowed the export of Ukrainian agricultural products, on July 17, effectively terminating the deal. The move sparked international criticism and fears of rising food prices worldwide.

Following its withdrawal from the deal, Moscow carried out two consecutive strikes against the port city of Odesa on July 18 and 19.

The aftermath of Russian strikes against Odesa, July 19, 2023. (Source: State Emergency Service/Telegram)

The aftermath of Russian strikes against Odesa, July 19, 2023. (Source: State Emergency Service/Telegram)

The aftermath of Russian strikes against Odesa, July 19, 2023. (Source: State Emergency Service/Telegram)

The aftermath of Russian strikes against Odesa, July 19, 2023. (Source: State Emergency Service/Telegram)

[college-girl199328]

The grocery store parking lots with work trucks bearing bumper stickers proclaim love for Canadian pipelines. The highway becomes a stream of pickups, their orange safety flags tower above the worksite for visibility — tucked down for travel. Outside a local hotel, vehicles assigned to a controversial RCMP unit tasked with policing opposition to industrial projects make up the trucks and SUVs flanking the building.

They’re all here because the Coastal GasLink pipeline is being built to connect underground shale gas formations in the province’s northeast with marine shipping routes on the Pacific coast, about 120 kilometers from Smithers as the crow flies. Until recently, there was only one liquefaction and export facility preparing to receive the gas — now there are two.

In mid-March, B.C.’s NDP government approved Cedar LNG, a partnership between the Haisla Nation and Pembina Pipeline Corporation. The pending final investment decision, the liquefaction and export terminal would be built over the tidal waters of Douglas Channel across from the Haisla village of Kitamaat, just a few kilometers from LNG Canada. Cedar LNG would export three million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) annually, about 30 percent of what its larger neighbor plans to ship when it starts operations in 2026. Like LNG Canada, it would receive its supply from Coastal GasLink.

Premier David Eby and Haisla elected chief councilor Crystal Smith announced the decision at a press conference on March 14, “an unprecedented opportunity for both Haisla Nation and the region.”

“Today’s announcement marks a historic milestone for Cedar LNG and the Haisla Nation’s journey towards economic self-determination,” Smith said in a statement. “Together with our partner, Pembina Pipeline, we are setting a new standard for responsible and sustainable energy development that protects the environment and our traditional way of life.”

Hot on the heels of the announcement, the province said it is developing new regulations for the oil and gas sector, including an emissions cap and a requirement that all new projects have a “credible plan” to reach net zero by 2030. For example, Ksi Lisims, a proposed liquefaction facility on Nisga’a territory, now needs to include an emissions reduction plan as part of its environmental assessment.

But the rule doesn’t apply to the newly approved project. Instead, the Haisla Nation is signing a memorandum of understanding with the province to explore opportunities for emissions reductions beyond its approved plan.

“Already proposed to be one of the lowest-emitting facilities in the world, we will be working in partnership to further reduce the project’s emissions,” Eby said.

Critics and climate activists decry B.C.’s approval of another gas export terminal, while supporters applaud the decision as an act of reconciliation. Meanwhile, energy analysts cautiously approved the province’s plan to implement new policies and regulations but question how effective they will be at curbing emissions from already approved projects.

Cedar LNG’s approval was announced less than a week before the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its latest report, which warns the decisions governments to make this decade “will have impacts now and for thousands of years.”

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres didn’t mince words in a video message released with the report, noting, “the rate of temperature rise in the last half-century is the highest in 2,000 years.” He called the document a “survival guide for humanity that guide should not approve or fund new oil and gas projects and stop expanding existing fossil fuel reserves.

“In short, our world needs climate action on all fronts — everything, everywhere, all at once,” Guterres fed from the contentious Coastal GasLink pipeline. According to documents filed with the B.C. environmental assessment office, the plant would emit around 8.6 megatonnes of equivalent carbon pollution over its 40-year lifespan. Upstream, the project would add an additional 39 megatonnes, about the same amount of emissions produced by putting 8.4 million cars on the road for a year or driving around the planet 12 million times.

The provincial approval is subject to 16 conditions, including developing an emissions reduction plan that aligns with climate goals. The plant will power its turbines with electricity supplied by Hydro, which minimizes — but doesn’t eliminate — emissions produced during the energy-intensive liquefaction process.

“Powered by renewable electricity and with plans to achieve near-zero emissions by 2030, Cedar LNG showcases what responsible resource development can look like as we transition to a clean-energy future,” Minister of Energy, Mines, and Low Carbon Innovation Josie Osborne said in a statement.

According to industry analysis, liquefaction accounts for less than one-third of emissions produced by the gas sector. The rest is added to the atmosphere during extraction, pipeline transport, shipping, regasification, and combustion we track — invisible methane leaks at every step of the process are a problem industry operators and regulators grapple with worldwide.

George Heyman, B.C. minister of environment and climate change strategy, said the new energy framework and emissions cap played a prominent role in the project decision, which took 118 days, more than 60 days past the legislated deadline.

He described Cedar LNG as a relatively small and well-designed project “in terms of doing everything it can to minimize environmental and carbon impact — which is not to say it doesn’t have any” and noted the broader scope of emissions was considered in the approval.

“In my view, it is far more important to have a broad-reaching, sector-wide set of clear rules and regulations that demonstrate how we are going to steadily reduce emissions in the successive failure or credibility on the approval or failure to approve one or another project,” he told The Narwhal in an interview.

If all goes as planned, Cedar LNG would power up its turbines in 2027 and continue operating until 2067, close to two decades after the date 196 countries promised to get emissions down to zero in the Paris Agreement signed in 2015. In 2021, Canada enacted legislation that holds the federal government accountable for that commitment. That means pollution associated with the project, however small, will have to be offset.

As purchased by companies like Disney, Shell, and Gucci were “worthless.” Put another way, no greenhouse gases were prevented from entering the atmosphere corporations used the offsets to market their products as environmentally friendly.

Karena Shaw, a political ecologist and associate professor of environmental studies at the University of Victoria, worries the sector won’t be held accountable.

“What message is this decision sending out to the fossil fuel industry?” she said in an interview. “If we let the industry get away with a ‘credible plan’ to be net zero to lose. A credible plan to get to net zero could be just purchasing the cheapest offsets out there.”

Other methods of decreasing emissions produced by the gas sector include carbon capture reports noted this would be the most costly and least effective way to tackle the problem.

Cedar LNG went through a joint provincial-federal environmental assessment process and its stamp of approval one day after B.C. approved the project. But it’s unknown how the new emissions cap and other regulations like stricter methane rules will affect industry investment.

“There have not yet made final investment decisions,” Heyman noted. “They now know the rules are and can the University of British Columbia, told The Narwhal investors will be paying attention to “local regulatory uncertainty and the long-term outlook in the LNG market.”

He said Indigenous Rights and environmental mandates are the two main drivers of uncertainty in long overdue recognition of Indigenous interest through the [United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples] requirement on Free, Prior, and Informed Consent requires businesses to adapt,” he wrote in an email. “Most of the proposed LNG projects in B.C. have come to naught the choice to build in B.C. or natural gas firms will likely look first.”

Adam Olsen (SȾHENEP), a Green party representative and member of Tsartlip First Nation (WJOȽEȽP), said a “very optimistic person” would view the province’s new energy framework as a regulatory means to make B.C. oil and gas development uneconomical.

“What might come out at the other end of that emissions cap process is simply an unsustainable fossil fuel industry in this province,” he told The Narwhal in an interview.

He said others would argue the government used the framework and the memorandum of understanding which lack details — as a smokescreen for green-lighting another fossil fuel project.

“With so little detail on that energy action framework, it’s near impossible to actually determine to happen said the details will be released over the next few months, along with timelines on when changes will be implemented.

Getting a solid return on exporting B.C. gas to buyers across the Pacific has always been somewhat iffy years been this sort of back and forth around the sector in British Columbia,” she said to be the first to go when the market gets pinched.”

In early February, Calgary-based TC Energy announced a revised cost estimate for the Coastal GasLink pipeline of $14.5 billion, more than double its original estimate. That price, the pipeline operator said, could rise by another $1.2 billion if construction isn’t completed this year.

Antweiler said the International Energy Agency’s analysis of global gas demand forecasts either minimal growth or significant decreases, noting “investors will be reasonably cautious given these scenarios.”

“This said, energy security can still lead to regional expansions as the reliability of supply can play an important role, or if a carbon border adjustment mechanism introduced in the [European Union] requires buyers to shift from high-carbon-emission to low-carbon-emission sources.”

Shaw said companies are holding out for now, likely waiting to see what happens as the province develops its regulations and hoping governments will make investments of more than $5.4 billion in financial incentives to LNG Canada and commit to spending more than $700 million of taxpayer dollars to secure support from First Nations for the pipeline and the sector at large.

“If they get enough subsidies and support from the government, they can make something out of it,” she said backing is something Ellis Ross, Skeena MLA with the B.C. Liberals and a member of Haisla Nation would like to see.

“I sincerely hope Cedar LNG is granted similar tax breaks to those received by LNG Canada,” he said in a statement Haisla nation is no stranger to industrial development on its territories. Canada-based mining company Rio Tinto Alcan has operated its aluminum smelter in Kitimat for about 70 years in the coastal community and has seen the impacts of decades of commercial logging.

While the nation has financial agreements with LNG Canada and Coastal GasLink, economic benefits have been a byproduct of projects brought forward by outside parties. In contrast, Cedar LNG is hailed as Canada’s first Indigenous-led liquefied natural gas project. With majority ownership, the Haisla Nation is calling the shots.

“Today is about changing the course of history for my Indigenous Peoples everywhere in history, where Indigenous people were left on the sidelines of economic development in their territories,” Smith said at the announcement.

“I am extremely gratified that an initiative we worked on behalf of the Haisla people finally got the respect it deserves from the provincial government,” he said in a statement following the announcement.

Premier Eby said approving Cedar LNG doesn’t mean sacrificing the environment and that the dichotomy — the idea that you can only have economic development by abandoning environmental holding the environmental principles you have to give up on jobs and opportunities — is a false idea,” he said. “The future in British Columbia around major projects or projects involving land or resources need to be done in partnership with First Nations.”

But critics say there’s another false dichotomy embedded in the government’s actions. If economic reconciliation is only achieved through fossil fuel infrastructure, other economic opportunities for Indigenous communities are obscured or displaced. The narrative also ignores the root cause of economic inequity: colonization.

“The historical context of these issues is critically important to understanding the mechanisms by which colonization, genocide, land dispossession, and forced assimilation policies translate into the conditions of poverty that the Indigenous people experience today in B.C.,” a 2022 First Nations Leadership Council report on economic disparity noted.

“Indigenous revenue should not be fettered by a single project,” Olsen said. “It should be viewed as ‘How do we participate? How do Indigenous nations participate and benefit from their lands and territories without having to approve devastating climate-change-inducing projects?’ ”

The greenhouse gases emitted by projects like Cedar LNG have some Indigenous leaders speaking out against increased activity in the fossil fuel sector.

“I am worried about the warming planet and resulting climate emergency that is being driven globally by major industrial resource extraction,” Grand Chief Stewart Phillip, president of the Union of British Columbia Indian Chiefs, said in a statement. “The expansion of the LNG industry and associated fracking that was greenlit … is frightening when we think about how this will impact the lands and waters in this province and across the world.”

While Haisla and other nations in B.C. have historically for projects like Cedar LNG and the Coastal GasLink pipeline, not all Indigenous leaders are behind the industry. Notably, Wet’suwet’en Hereditary Chiefs oppose the Coastal GasLink project is being built on their territory without consent — a central tenet of the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, which was passed into law in B.C. in 2019.

“While they’re saying this is economic reconciliation for the Haisla, the pipeline is being dragged across other territories,” Olsen said. “There are huge amounts of challenges — $36 million is being spent on the RCMP protection of that pipeline against other Indigenous people.”

Premier Eby didn’t directly respond to a question about controversy and backlash over Coastal GasLink are going to have challenges along the way,” he told reporters.

Olsen said it’s important to note he’s not speaking against the Haisla by criticizing the framing of the decision and would like to see more options provided to Indigenous communities and for all governments — Indigenous and non-Indigenous — to speak openly.

“It shouldn’t be a zero-sum game for the Haisla,” he said. “It shouldn’t be that if the government doesn’t approve thistle economic development for them. We should be able to have an honest conversation about the fact that fossil fuels are increasing the climate emergency we’re facing and the hostility of the climate and this planet we live on.”

As temperatures continue to rise globally, ecosystems become increasingly uninhabitable for species. Extreme weather events — droughts, wildfires, heat domes, and atmospheric rivers — can take out entire fish or wildlife.

In B.C., the decline of keystone species like salmon has decades of industrial activity. Clearcut logging, hydroelectric facilities, mining, agriculture, and other human impacts have wreaked havoc on species and natural systems. In the northeast, where gas for Cedar LNG and other facilities is extracted, cumulative impacts were center stage in a landmark 2021 court ruling, which found the province guilty of infringing on Blueberry River First Nations’ Treaty Rights by permitting and encouraging widespread development.

“As we’ve seen from the Blueberry River case, there are limits to how much those landscapes can take,” Shaw, outlining a plan for how gas extraction on the territory will be managed moving forward. At the time, Premier Eby said the fossil fuel industry could continue digging as much gas out of the ground as companies could get their hands on just had to have a smaller footprint on the surface.

Now, with the emissions cap and energy framework further constraining the sector, it’s unclear how companies like energy company ARC Resources, which inked a deal with the Haisla Nation and Pembina Pipeline Corporation to provide 50 percent of Cedar LNG’s supply, will get the gas out of the ground, construction continues on Coastal GasLink.

“There are immediate, proximate impacts around extraction and the pipeline itself, but then there’s the broader contribution to climate change,” Shaw said. “There’s always the question of why this project starts saying no. This is what the gut punch is for me. We’re trying to say no everywhere — and this is part of everywhere.”

[ausetkmt]

Gizmodo: First-Ever AI Weapons Summit Did Nothing for Human Rights

When delegates from 50 countries met in the Netherlands this week to discuss the future of military artificial intelligence, human rights activists and non-proliferation experts saw an opportunity. For years, rights groups have urged nations to restrict the development of AI weapons and sign a legally binding treaty to restrict the use of them over fears their unrestricted development could mirror last century’s nuclear arms race. Instead, the results of what could have been a historic summit were only “feeble” window dressing, the rights groups said.

After two days of in-depth talks, panels, and presentations produced by around 2,500 AI experts and industry leaders, the REAIM (get it?) summit ended in a non-legally binding “call to action” over the responsible development, deployment and use of military AI. The attendees also agreed to establish a “Global Commission on AI.” That might sound lofty, but in reality, those initiatives are limited to “raise awareness” about how the technology can be manufactured responsibly. Meaningful talks of actually reducing or limiting AI weapons were essentially off the table.

Stop Killer Robots Campaign, one of the leading rights groups advocating against AI in warfare, told Gizmodo the call action offered a “vague and incorrect vision” of military use of AI without any reason for clarity on rules or limitations. Safe Ground, an Australian rights group, called the entire summit a “missed opportunity.”

At the same time the United States, which is both the world leader in AI weapons systems and historically one of the leading voices against an international AI weapons treaty, revealed a 12 point political declaration outlining its “responsible” autonomous systems strategy. The declaration, which comes just weeks after a controversial new Department of Defense directive on AI, says all AI systems should adhere to international human rights laws and have “appropriate levels of human judgment.” Though State Department officials triumphantly advertised the declaration as a pivotal step forward, rights groups fighting to limit the AI weapons system said it’s a complete disaster.

“Now is not the time for countries to tinker with flawed political declarations,” Human Rights Watch Arms Advocacy Director Mary Wareham said in a tweet. Stop Killer Robots Government Relations Manager Ousman Noor went further and called the declaration “the most backwards position seen from any state, in years.”

“This Declaration falls drastically short of the international framework that the majority of states within UN discussions have called for,” Stop Killer Robots said in a statement. “It does not see the need for legally binding rules, and instead permits the development and use of Autonomous Weapons Systems, absent lines of acceptability.”

For AI military skeptics, the first-of-its-kind summit was actually seen as a step in the wrong direction. Prior to the summit, a majority of the 125 states represented in the U.N.’s Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons expressed interest in new laws essentially banning autonomous weapons development during a conference last year. UN Secretary-General António Guterres released a statement around the same time saying such systems should be prohibited under international law. Those efforts failed largely due to the U.S., China, and Russia, which are all in favor of the development of these weapons. The views of these three countries were previously outliers at the U.N. Now, under the new framework, it appears foregone that autonomous weapons systems are necessary and unavoidable.

One notable country not represented among the 50 or so nations at the REAIM summit? Russia, due to its ongoing war with Ukraine. Present or not, Russia and Ukraine were discussed throughout the summit as one of the potential testing grounds for new, fully autonomous military technology. Ukraine already reportedly uses semi-autonomous attack drones and Clearview AI’s facial recognition service to identify dead Russian troops.

Here’s some of the top highlights from the summit.

The REAIM summit may have failed to appease rights groups but it largely succeeded bringing a wide variety of stakeholders to the table. Hosted in The Hague by The Netherlands and South Korea, the international summit was seen by some as an important first step to get stakeholders, some of which are actively competing against one another in an AI arm race, to meet under one roof and discuss the most pressing challenges presented by AI weapons system. In total, around 2,500 attendees from 100 different countries attended the summit.

Dutch Foreign Minister Wopke Hoekstra told Reuters at the start of the summit the event sought to agree upon some definition around AI weapons and discuss ways to improve safety under the assumption nations would inevitably pursue autonomous warfare. In general, the stakeholders involved sought to push discussions of AI weapons higher up on each respective nation’s political agenda.

“We are moving into a field that we do not know, for which we do not have guidelines, rules, frameworks, or agreements. But we will need them sooner rather than later,” Hoekstra told Reuters.

The U.S. shocked some on the final day of the summit by revealing its own 12 point political declaration outlining its autonomous systems strategy and best practice for its deployment. Among other points, the non-binding declaration says AI weapons must be consistent with international law, should maintain “appropriate levels of human judgment,” and should have their development overseen by “senior officials.” Maybe most notable, the declaration says human beings should maintain control over all actions concerning nuclear weapons.In theory, that provision should help prevent a future nuclear holocaust stemming from a hacked weapons silo or faulty AI. All very reassuring.

Though the U.S. declaration does hint at some willingness by the world’s largest military to talk across the aisle, its vagueness also leaves more questions than answers. The declaration fail to dive into specifics of the levels of human oversight required for AI weapons systems and even appears to depart from previous statements made by Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks, who told Gizmodo she believed AI systems should always have “humans in the loop.”

Like the United States, China has largely refrained from signing on to large scale treaties or agreements to limit AI weapons. The most obvious reason for why is because they, also like the U.S, have invested heavily in space.

Tan Jian, China’s ambassador to The Netherlands, attended the event and reportedly sent a pair of papers to the United Nations which said AI weapons, “concerns the common security and the well-being of mankind,” which means any solution moving forward should be made collectively. During the summit, according to Reuters, Jian said it crucial countries opt to work together through the UN and “oppose seeking absolute military advantage and hegemony through AI.”

Nation states representatives weren’t the only people in attendance. The summit also welcomed industry excerpts and private industry executives like Palantir CEO Alex Karp. During his speech, Karp reportedly said the Ukrainian military’s recent use of AI to positively identify target on the battlefield had moved the question of AI weapons away from “highly erudite ethics discussion,” to something with immediate real world consequences. The CEO previously said Ulkranians are using Palantir’s controversial data analytics software to carry out some of that targeting.

Karp, who has faced criticism from U.S. civil liberties groups for helping fuel a wave of so-called predictive policing tactics in major cities, agreed that there should be more transparency around the data used by AI weapons systems, but simultaneously said it was important for western countries not to fall behind China and Russia in the tech race.

“One of the major things we need to do in the West, is realise this lesson is completely understood by China and Russia,” Karp said, according to Reuters.

For years NGO giant Human Rights Watch has been one of the leading voices advocating in favor of an international treaty on autonomous weapons systems. In the past, the organization blamed the U.S, Russia, China, and India, for playing an outsized role in derailing treaty talks supported by dozens of smaller nations. On the surface then, one might think HRW would respond favorably to the U.S. new political declaration. Instead, the organization said it effort fell flat.

“Now is not the time for countries to tinker with flawed political declarations that pave the way for a future of automated killing,” Human Rights Watch Arms Advocacy Director Mary Wareham said in a statement. “To protect humanity, US [sic] help negotiate new international law to prohibit and restrict autonomous weapons systems.”

That skepticisms came just days after HRW released a lengthy report railing against a new U.S. Department of Defense directive on AI weapons which it criticized as an “inadequate response” to the threats posed by the tech. That proposal, the agency said, was “out of step” with widely supported international proposals for treaties prohibiting and regulating autonomous weapons systems.

“The US pursuit of autonomous weapons systems without binding legal rules to explicitly address the dangers is a recipe for disaster,” Wareham said. “National policy and legislation are urgently needed to address the risks and challenges raised by removing human control from the use of force.”

As their name subtly suggests, the Stop Killer Robots organization strongly opposes the expansion of AI in weapons systems and wasn’t pleased with the outcome of the summit. The organization said the widely agreed on call to action was “vague and incoherent” and failed to apply any real rules or limitations on AI military use or development, which was kinda the whole point of the summit.

As for the United States, Stop Killer Robots said its declaration, “falls drastically short,” with the organization’s government relations manager calling it, “the most backwards position seen from any state, in years.”

“​​This ‘Political Declaration’ is toxic and is an attempt to radically undermine global effort towards establishing a new Treaty on Autonomous Weapons Systems,” Stop Killer Robots Government Relations Manager Ousman Noor said in a statement. “States should avoid it entirely.” Noor went on to say the declaration failed to prohibit weapons systems that are designed to target humans and also failed to establish clear restrictions on systems that can be used without human control.

“It contains no prohibitions on systems that cannot be used with meaningful human control and fails to recognize the need to prohibit systems that target humans,” Stop Killer Robots said. “It does not identify what types of limits are needed (temporal/spatial/duration of operation/scale of force etc.) and fails to give expression to the widely recognized need to ensure predictability, understandability, explainability, reliability and traceability.”

Safe Ground, an Australian based human rights organization which has spoken out forcefully against autonomous weapons in the past, told Gizmodo the REAIM summit “missed an opportunity” to adequately discuss autonomous weapons, despite the event being billed as exploring AI in the military domain. Similarly, Safe Ground noted the call to action seen as the high point of the event did not actually specifically mention autonomous weapons or prohibitions and obligations related to their development or use. It’s also non-binding, which means its mostly for show

“Whilst discussions of responsible AI are important, international law on autonomous weapons is essential, as well as clear policy at the domestic level,” Safe Ground said.

[swldx]

BBC 0524 14 Feb 2023

6195Khz 0458 14 FEB 2023 - BBC (UNITED KINGDOM) in ENGLISH from ASCENSION ISLAND. SINPO = 45333. English, s/on @0458z w/Bow Bells int. then ID@0459z pips and newsday preview. @0501z World News anchored by David Harper. Syria's government has agreed to open two more border crossings to allow aid into the country devastated by last week's deadly earthquakes, the UN says. "It's going to make a big difference. We are now using just one crossing," a spokesman for UN Secretary General António Guterres told the BBC. The quakes in neighbouring Turkey are known to have killed almost 40,000 people in the two countries. Many Syrians have been angry over the lack of aid to their war-torn nation. NATO Defence Ministers are meeting in Brussels this week to strengthen the Alliance’s deterrence and defence, and step up and sustain Ukraine. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg noted the urgency of delivering key capabilities to Ukraine before Russia can seize the initiative on the battlefield. The sensors from a suspected Chinese spy balloon shot down after crossing the US have been recovered from the Atlantic Ocean, the US military says. Search crews found "significant debris from the site, including all of the priority sensor and electronics pieces identified", said US Northern Command. At least three people are dead and five others are injured after a gunman opened fire at Michigan State University in the USA Monday night, leading hundreds of police officers to sweep the campus in search of the suspect, who remained at large. Police in Tunisia have detained the head of an independent radio station on the third day of a wave of arrests of opposition politicians and activists. On Monday, officers raided the house of Noureddine Boutar of Mosaïque FM, which has criticised President Kais Saied. Since Saturday, numerous public figures, including an opposition politician, a prominent businessman, two judges and a former diplomat have been held. Residents have been forced to swim to safety from flooded homes in New Zealand after Cyclone Gabrielle lashed the country's north. The country announced a national state of emergency on Tuesday after the storm's devastation; just the third time in its history it's done so. Australia will remove Chinese-made surveillance cameras from defence sites over national security fears. It comes after an audit found 900 pieces of surveillance equipment built by companies Hikvision and Dahua on government estates.The UK and US made similar moves last year, citing fears the device data may be accessed by the Chinese government. Half the population of Cuba is currently without power allegedly due to technical problems with transmission lines. Half of China's population aged 65 to 69 are smartphones users, according to survey results released at a national population and development forum. @0506z “Newsday” begins. MLA 30 amplified loop (powered w/8 AA rechargeable batteries ~10.8vdc), Etón e1XM. 200kW, beamAz 160°, bearing 47°. Received at Plymouth, United States, 9763KM from transmitter at Ascension Island. Local time: 2258.

[bullet-prooflove]

Chasing Fires - Brian ‘Otis’ Zvonecek: Chapter Eleven

Brian Zvonecek has spent most of his adult life fighting fires, now it’s time to chase one.

Follows on from Million Reasons but is a stand alone fic.

Tagging   @orileyfiction for all her help and support! Also @me-ladie​ for being the wonderful person she is and betaing.

- Chapter One

- Chapter Two

- Chapter Three

- Chaper Four

- Chapter Five

- Chapter Six

- Chapter Seven

- Chapter Eight

- Chapter Nine

- Chapter Ten

“I hate this case.” Kat said as she sat behind the wheel of the pool car, her fingertips drumming on the steering wheel. 

Antonio said nothing, he simply stared straight ahead, the back of his hand pressed to his mouth. She’d worked with him long enough to know that he was puzzling something over his head, trying to make the pieces fit. 

They were still parked outside of Chicago Med after interviewing Tawney Darrens. The incident had been the same as the one at the Clifford residence, nitrous oxide in her system. The rape kit was pending but there were signs, there were always signs. 

It was cases like this that always made her think about Eve, about the aftermath of the brutality. The act itself stole something away from you, broke you down so that you’d never be the same again. Some people recovered, some people didn’t, there was no way of telling which way Tawney would go.

“Her affect was off.” Antonio said quietly. “Something about her story doesn’t make sense.”

“Are you serious?” Kat snapped. “Her affect was off?” 

Antonio tilted his head towards her, his jaw tensing. He was squaring off for a fight, she could tell from the tension in his shoulders. The savage side of her rose to meet the challenge because he didn’t know, he had never seen it.

“Kat…”

“Don’t.”

“Kat, she isn’t Eve.”

There was a silence between them, it hung in the air crackling like an electrical storm before Kat spoke. 

“Since when did we stop believing the victim?” She asked him, fingers curling around the steering wheel and gripping it so tightly the skin of her knuckles pulled taunt. 

“That’s not what this is.” Antonio told her.

“It sounds like it.”

“You’re too close to this.” He retorted, his voice starting to simmer. 

“A fourteen-year-old girl was raped,” she exploded. “In a place where she was supposed to feel safe, did you know she won’t even sleep in her bedroom anymore? Her father is back at the precinct desperate for any news because he can’t face thinking that he brought this down on them, that somehow, he brought this person into their homes, and I can’t tell him otherwise. Am I not supposed to be angry?”

“You have the right to your anger, you have the right to want to fight and rage and scream but you also have a duty, a duty to keep a clear head, to investigate, to look at things logically and survey all the angles. If you can’t do that then I have no choice but to recommend to Voight that he bench you,” Antonio told her, his voice firm.  “Now I don’t want to do that, but I will if you force my hand. Are we clear about that?”

“I’m not going to put up and shut up Antonio.”

“And I wouldn’t expect you to. What I’m asking for is for you to take a breath and listen to me.” He tapped a finger on his chest. “As your partner.”

Kat sucked in a deep breath through her nose and exhaled out of her mouth, feeling her shoulders relax as she did. That rage, that need to vent was beginning to ebb away, she could feel it flowing out of her system as she took another breath. 

 “Tawney saw their faces.” Kat said, tapping her fingers on the steering column. “She confirmed that Spence wasn’t involved, which sucks because I was positive, he was…”

“Yea, me too.” António agreed.

When I woke up, I had this pain…

The voice played in her head, an echo of Caroline’s statement. All that rage, all that anguish it bubbled up to the surface once more, pulsing underneath her skin.

“I want them, Antonio.” Kat told him, starting the engine of the car. “I want them to pay for what they did.”

“So do I, Kat.” He said, his hand back by his mouth. “So do I.”

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

“The rape kit isn’t back yet.” Antonio said, tapping the whiteboard with the drywipe marker. “But Tawney’s blood is positive for nitrous oxide.”

Kat was seated at her desk, her hands laced together as she fixated on the pictures of both Tawney and Caroline underneath the Victims headline. There was a tension in her body, it made her knee vibrate under the desk as she reviewed the file on her computer, bringing up the latest up to date information on the case.

“You know what I don’t get?” Al asked, leaning against his desk, and folding his arms over his chest. “Tawney was a post grad student staying at an AirBnB, she had no valuables there so why target her. She doesn’t fit the victimology of the other robberies.”

“It could be that the rape has become the more prominent aspect.” Burgess said, pointing her pen in the direction of the board. 

“It seems to be the work of one perp from what we saw at the Cliffords.” Atwater told them. “He’s the only one that goes upstairs and into the bedroom. The other two just trash the place and grab what they can.”

“We had to kick Spence this morning because we had him in custody at the time of the latest robbery.” Voight said from the opposite side of the whiteboard, tapping the picture of the man under the Suspects column. “I still like him for this, maybe not for the rape but he’s involved in some way.”

“I’ve been going through the Pod footage in the Clifford’s neighbourhood leading up to the robbery. There was nothing suspicious until I had a second incident to compare it to.” Halstead told them, tilting the screen of his monitor to show the others. “There’s a 2003 black suburban parked outside of both condos for two hours the day before the robberies.” 

“You think they were casing the place.” Kat said, tapping her pen against the desk as she took in Halstead’s words. 

Halstead pushed away from his desk before swinging by the printer and plucking a sheet of paper out of it. He placed it in the Suspects column, pinning it to the board with a magnet.

“I ran the plates, and they came back to Ty Henley, five years ago he was a person of interest in two sexual assault cases out of Wisconsin.” 

“Mouse track down his phone, his credit cards, anything that will get a lead on him.”  Voight ordered. “Jay, get on the car. Kat take some mugshots over to Tawney, see if we can get an I.D from her.”

“On it.” Kat saluted before turning her attention to her computer to compile an A3  document of mugshots.

Like My Work? - Why Not Buy Me A Coffee

[xtruss]

More than 20,000 people confirmed to have died in earthquake! An injured man is rescued from under rubble 87 hours after earthquakes hit in Turkey. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Turkey 🇹🇷 — Syria 🇸🇾 Earthquake: Death Toll Passes 20,000 As Rescue Efforts Enter Fourth Night – Latest News

The death toll from the earthquake has now risen above 20,000, after Turkey’s Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency body published its latest update on the amount of people who have died. AFAD said the death toll in Turkey is now 17,134, Reuters reports.

It would make an increase from the total announced by Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Thursday afternoon, which stood at 16,546. State media in Syria said the death toll in government-held areas had risen to 1,347, up from 1,262.

Earlier, the White Helmets civil defence group said 1,930 had been reported dead in rebel-held areas in the north-west of the country. It brings the overall total to 20,411. Experts have said the casualty figures are expected to continue to rise in the coming days.

The combined death toll in Turkey and Syria from Monday’s devastating earthquake rose to at least 19,823, after Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, announced that 16,546 had died, while state media in Syria reported that the death toll in government-held areas had risen to 1,347. Earlier, the White Helmets civil defence group said 1,930 had been reported dead in rebel-held areas in the north-west of the country.

At least 28,044 people have been evacuated from Kahramanmaraş, one of the southern Turkish provinces hardest hit by Monday’s earthquake, including 23,437 by air and 4,607 by road and rail, Turkey’s disaster management agency said.

Rescuers continued to pull people who have been trapped for days out of the rubble, including a young girl trapped for three days.

Turkey announced that it had received pledges of aid from 95 countries and 16 international organisations since Monday, and 6,479 rescue workers from 56 countries were already active in the 10 provinces affected by the quake, with teams from 19 more countries set to be in place within 24 hours.

France announced €12m in emergency post-earthquake aid to Syrians, with the aid to be disbursed “through non-governmental organisations and the UN in all regions affected”, while Germany said it would increase humanitarian assistance in Syria by €26m.

Turkey’s disaster management agency, AHAD, said it has recorded almost 650 aftershocks since two earthquakes – 7.8 and 7.6 in magnitude – struck, making rescue efforts even more difficult and dangerous as emergency teams comb through severely weakened buildings.

A Reuters report shed light on how hundreds of thousands of people made homeless by the quake are being housed in banks of tents erected in stadiums and shattered city centres, while Mediterranean and Aegean beach resorts outside the quake zone are opening up hotel rooms for evacuees.

The UN will dispatch its aid chief, Martin Griffiths, to Gaziantep, in Turkey, and Aleppo and Damascus, in Syria, this weekend to assess how the UN can best step up support, according to UN secretary-general, António Guterres, who also urged the Syrian government to allow aid-access to the country’s rebel-held north-west.

Top: Syrian soldiers use heavy machinery to sift through the rubble of a collapsed building in Aleppo. Photograph: AFP/Getty Images. Bottom: Search and rescue efforts continue after 7.7 and 7.6 magnitude earthquakes hit the Afrin district of Aleppo on Monday. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

The Greek Orthodox Cathedral of Elijah the Prophet, in the Christian quarter of Aleppo, is being used as a shelter. Photograph: Guardian Community

Hatay, Turkey 🇹🇷! A survivor carries belongings salvaged from his destroyed home, in the aftermath of the deadly earthquake in Hatay. Photograph: Ümit Bektaş/Reuters

Kahramanmaras, Turkey 🇹🇷! A seven-year-old girl is rescued by the Israeli army, Hatzalah United and Turkish rescue teams after three days under the rubble of a collapsed building. Photograph: Abir Sultan/EPA

Mehmet Nasir Duran, 67, sits on a chair, as heavy machines remove debris from a building, where five of his family members are trapped in Nurdagi, southeastern Turkey, Thursday, Feb. 9, 2023. © AP Photo/Petros Giannakouris