#Assembly Election 2021

[mariacallous]

Lame-duck periods are meant to be inconsequential, but on Thursday afternoon at the White House, U.S. President Joe Biden got a chance to present one of the most important breakthroughs of his time in office. In what was the largest U.S.-Russia prisoner swap since the Cold War, involving at least seven countries over a period of months, a total of 24 people moved across borders as pawns in a game of global 3D chess.

Eight Russians are returning home in exchange for a combination of 16 Americans, Germans, and Russians. Within an hour of confirmation that U.S. prisoners were safely out of Russia, Biden assembled family members of the freed Americans at the White House and addressed a gathering of journalists. As he looked into the cameras, he no doubt knew that he was being closely watched by his counterparts in Beijing and Moscow, by millions of people around the world, and by history.

Even in his moment of triumph, Biden found a way to focus on the human reality of the moment. He singled out Miriam, the daughter of the released Russian American journalist Alsu Kurmasheva. It was one day until her 13th birthday, and Biden put an arm around Miriam, leading a chorus of the world’s most popular song. The joy was obviously precipitated by a major international development, but it was also the day a teenage girl would see her mother again after more than nine months in prison, convicted for the crime of writing about Russia’s army.

There’s a long list of prominent names involved in Thursday’s prisoner swap, including Evan Gershkovich, the Wall Street Journal reporter sentenced to 16 years in prison under false claims of conducting espionage, and Paul Whelan, a former U.S. Marine who was in Russia for a friend’s wedding and accused, again, of espionage. There were German citizens and even Russians, including Oleg Orlov, a human rights defender and co-chair of the Nobel Peace Prize-winning group Memorial, in prison for speaking his mind about his country’s war in Ukraine.

Journalists, tourists, and activists went one way in the prisoner exchange; on the other side was Vadim Krasikov, a former colonel in Russia’s Federal Security Service serving a life sentence in a German prison for a hit on a former Chechen fighter, conducted in broad daylight in Berlin. Others included a Russian citizen involved in international money laundering, a hacker, a credit card fraudster, and an actual spy.

The historic exchange instantly evokes imagery from the Cold War, when such transfers of prisoners were more common. But rather than the historical parallels, it is the contrasts drawn by Thursday’s events that will be remembered. There was Washington, fighting for the freedom of not only its own citizens but also Russians who dared to criticize their own government, and in stark relief there was Moscow, openly trading journalists for criminals and Nobel winners for fraudsters. The Kremlin has gleefully applauded knocks to U.S. soft power, from the misadventure of the Iraq War to the botched U.S. departure from Afghanistan in 2021, but the symbolism of the moment will have not been lost on Russian President Vladimir Putin: This exchange isn’t a great look for him. And even though Biden’s claims of a grand battle between democracies and autocracies are often criticized for being too black and white for the modern multipolar world, the lame-duck president now has a moment to mark his favorite reference in the history books.

It’s an election year in the United States, so contrasts will also be drawn around the alternate visions of Washington’s role in the world—currently being debated by surrogates for the Democratic and Republican campaigns. Former U.S. President Donald Trump has long argued for a more transactional approach to geopolitics. In such a world, there are two players—one is a winner, the other a loser. The Trump worldview prioritizes singular might over alliances; values don’t matter as much as the value of the hand of cards a player is clutching to their chest. Biden, while careful to focus on the humanity and history of the moment, couldn’t resist pointing out the difference: “For anyone who questions whether allies matter, they do.” He was referring in particular to the role of Germany, which had reportedly been reluctant to give up Krasikov. Biden personally spoke with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in January and February, arguing the importance of the prisoner exchange.

Speaking a short while later to reporters, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan built on his boss’s message as he detailed the roles played by Germany, Turkey, and others in the prisoner swap. “There is no more powerful example of the importance and power of allies,” he said. “This was vintage Joe Biden.”

Supporters of presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris are also pointing out her role, visiting the Munich Security Conference a few times as vice president and building relations with German and European leaders.

Sen. J.D. Vance, the Republican vice presidential nominee, was quick to offer an alternative view: “We have to ask ourselves, why are they coming home? And I think it’s because bad guys all over the world recognize Donald Trump’s about to be back in office, so they’re cleaning house. That’s a good thing.”

And so the race for the White House rolls on, with both sides seeking to score points and spin their version of events. Thursday will be a historic study in contrasts—between Washington and Moscow and between rules and impunity. It will also be a moment that could play a part in an American referendum on Washington’s role in the world and whether the electorate favors the slow, painstaking diplomacy of Biden or the instant gratification and drama of Trump’s dealmaking.

[celticcrossanon]

The Commonwealth

My cranky rant for the day :)

Skip if this is of no interest to you, this is just me letting off steam.

Harry and the Commonwealth

I see a lot of misinterpretation of the Commonwealth of Nations with respect to Harry, and it drives me crazy.

Harry can not be 'King of the Commonwealth'. No such position exists.

Harry can not be 'Head of the Commonwealth'. That symbolic position is held by his father, King Charles III. The position is is appointed by the Commonwealth Heads of Government.

If King Charles III resigns form this role (which is highly unlikely), then another Head of the Commonwealth will be elected by the combined Heads of Government of the Commonwealth.

As the past three Heads of the Commonwealth have been the monarchs of the UK, if that trend continues then it is most likely that Prince William will be elected to the position, otherwise it is likely to go to another Head of Government within the Commonwealth, as discussed before the passing of Queen Elizabeth II. Harry is a non contender in my opinion.

The other top-rank positions of power within the Commonwealth of Nations are the Commonwealth Secretary-General and the Commonwealth Chair in Waiting.

The Chair in Waiting is the head of government of the last country to hold the CHOGM, so Harry automatically is not eligible for this role. It rotates once every two years.

The Secretary-General is elected for a maximum of eight years (two four-year terms) by the assembled heads of government and other ministerial representatives at every other CHOGM (so once every four years). Nominations for the election come from the governments of the member nations of the Commonwealth. it is highly unlikely that Harry would be nominated, and even more unlikely that he would be elected. Past Secretary-Generals are career diplomats and/or politicians, and Harry is neither.

The only position that Harry held with the word 'Commonwealth' in the title is the Presidency of the Queen's Commonwealth Trust, a charity that "provide[s] access to a global network of over 850 young leaders who are able to support each other and access insights and resources to further their work and impact." He was allegedly removed from that position in February 2021 and does not appear on the charity's website.

More detailed information on the Commonwealth of Nations below. Feel free to skip, this is for those interested in a bit about how it all works.

The Commonwealth of Nations

The Commonwealth is a voluntary association of 56 independent and equal countries. The member governments agree to shared goals such as development, democracy and peace. The values and principles of the Commonwealth are expressed in the Commonwealth Charter.

Commonwealth Heads of Government (CHOG)

This is the is collective name for the government leaders of the nations with membership in the Commonwealth of Nations. They are invited to attend Commonwealth Heads of Government Meetings every two years, with most countries being represented by either their head of government or head of state. The Commonwealth Heads of Government attend the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting, held once every two years (see below).

CHOGM and the Commonwealth Chair-In-Office

Decisions for and about the Commonwealth of Nations are usually made at the biennial Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM), where the Commonwealth nations' Prime ministers, Presidents, Kings or Queens, and any other heads of government, assemble for several days to discuss matters of mutual interest. 

Every two years the meeting is held in a different member state and is chaired by that nation's respective prime minister or president, who becomes the Commonwealth Chair-in-Office until the next meeting. 

The last CHOGM took place in Rwanda in 20222. The next one will be in Samoa in 2024.  (see https://thecommonwealth.org/chogm)

The current Commonwealth Chair-In-Office is the President of Rwanda, currently Paul Kagame. The primary responsibility of the Chair-in-Office is to host the CHOGM, a responsibility that starts their term as Chair-In-Office.

The Secretariat of the Commonwealth of Nations and the Commonwealth Secretary-General

The main body within the Commonwealth of Nations is the Secretariat. It  It is responsible for facilitating co-operation between members; organising meetings, including the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meetings (CHOGM); assisting and advising on policy development; and providing assistance to countries in implementing the decisions and policies of the Commonwealth. 

The Secretariat has observer status in the United Nations General Assembly. It is based at Marlborough House In England and has full diplomatic immunity.

The head of the Secretariat is the Commonwealth Secretary-General.

All Secretariat staff report to the Secretary-General, who is responsible for spending the Secretariat's budget, which is granted by the Heads of Government. It is the Secretary-General (not the ceremonial Head of the Commonwealth), that represents the Commonwealth publicly. The secretary-general is elected by the Heads of Government at the Commonwealth Heads of Government meetings for up to two terms of four years.

The Secretary-General used to be assisted by two, then three Deputy Secretaries-General. As those posts have fallen vacant they have not been filled under the current Secretary-General.

The current Commonwealth Secretary-General is Patricia Scotland, Baroness Scotland of Asthal, PC, KC. Her second four year term expires in 2024.

The Head of the Commonwealth of Nations

The Head of the Commonwealth of Nations is a symbolic position. The position represents the association of 56 independent members. Thirty-six member nations are republics, five have monarchies (Brunei, Eswatini, Lesotho, Malaysia, and Tonga), and fifteen member nations who are also commonwealth realms have the monarch of Great Britain. as their Head of State.

The Head of the Commonwealth serves as a symbolic leader, alongside the Commonwealth Secretary-General and  the Commonwealth Chair-In-Office, who also represent the Commonwealth.

The Head of the Commonwealth does not have any constitutional role in any Commonwealth state by virtue of their position as Head of the Commonwealth. They keep in touch with Commonwealth developments through contact with the Commonwealth Secretary-General and the Secretariat.

The head of the Commonwealth or a representative has been present in the past at the Commonwealth Games. The Baton Relay, held prior to the opening of each Commonwealth Games, carries a message from the Head of the Commonwealth to all Commonwealth Nations and territories.

The Head of the Commonwealth broadcasts a special message to the population of the Commonwealth on Commonwealth Day, the second Monday in March. They attend an inter-denominational Commonwealth Day service held at Westminster Abbey.

The position of head of the Commonwealth is not hereditary and successors are chosen by the Commonwealth heads of government. That being said, the three current and previous Heads of the Commonwealth have all been the monarchs of the United Kingdom.

REFERENCE WEBSITES

See also wikipedia for a general overview:

[justinspoliticalcorner]

News Corpse at Daily Kos:

On the first day of testimony in Donald Trump's election interference (aka "hush money") trial in New York, the defendant sat ruefully contemplating his fate. When he wasn't nodding off, he is reported to have appeared tired and annoyed as the opening statements were delivered. Trump's attorney embarked on a bold strategy to argue that reimbursing his lawyer for a $130,000.00 payment to buy the silence of a porn star in order to improperly influence an election, then lying about it on his financial reports, had nothing to with him. Of course not. He's just a pure-hearted, selfless, martyr trying to save America. As the trial proceeds, Trump is undergoing some severe stress and annoyance at how his MAGA cult is failing to sufficiently support him in his hour of need. On Monday morning he took to his floundering social media scam, Truth Social, to whip them into shape and incite them into taking more forceful action on his behalf. Trump wrote that...

["America Loving Protesters should be allowed to protest at the front steps of Courthouses, all over the Country, just like it is allowed for those who are destroying our Country on the Radical Left, a two tiered system of justice. Free Speech and Assembly has been 'CHILLED' for USA SUPPORTERS. GO OUT AND PEACEFULLY PROTEST. RALLY BEHIND MAGA. SAVE OUR COUNTRY! 'THE ONLY THING YOU HAVE TO FEAR IS FEAR ITSELF.'"]

Trump is implying that "America Loving" protesters (which in his noxious narcissism means "Trump loving") are not being "allowed" to gather to support him. But who is stopping them? There just isn't any real enthusiasm among his minions to show up. So in his dismay over the tepid turnout, Trump is trying to fire up his flock the way he did on January 6, 2021, for the insurrection at the Capitol. Only this time he wants them to crash courthouses across the country.

@newscorpse writes in @dailykos about Donald Trump whining over the fact that his MAGA cult isn't protesting at courthouses across the nation to protest his supposed "persecution" in the People of New York v. Trump election interference case.

[allthecanadianpolitics]

The Squamish Nation has voted to reclaim authority over its education system.

Sxwixtn Wilson Williams, an elected councillor and spokesperson for Squamish Nation, says a referendum among members saw more than 87 per cent vote in favour of having the nation develop its own education law and enter into an education jurisdiction agreement with the federal government.

He says the goal is for the Squamish Nation to have authority over its kindergarten-to-Grade 12 education system, building a curriculum with a focus on land-based learning and traditional ways of knowing.

Teaching Squamish culture and Sḵwx̱wú7mesh sníchim, the Squamish language, will be essential.

He says the movement is about empowerment. [...]

In 1972, the National Indian Brotherhood — now the Assembly of First Nations — issued a policy paper called "Indian Control of Indian Education."

While most education is a provincial responsibility in Canada, First Nations education is under federal jurisdiction.

But in 2006, the federal government passed legislation to allow individual First Nations in B.C. to take it over.

The provincial government then passed legislation in 2021, giving every First Nation with a jurisdiction agreement the right to certify and regulate teachers. [...]

Continue Reading.

Tagging: @politicsofcanada

[zvaigzdelasas]

The creation of the "Alliance Fleuve Congo" was made official on Friday in Nairobi, the Kenyan capital. At the helm is Corneille Nangaa, the former chairman of the Electoral Commission. 

In a video posted on social networks, he openly allied himself with several rebel movements, including the M23, which took up arms against the government in November 2021. 

The movement, which is active in the east of the DRC and, according to sources, supported by Rwanda, was represented in Nairobi by its president Bertrand Bisimwa.

Corneille Nangaa has announced that his platform currently comprises 17 political parties, two political groupings and several armed groups. 

A close associate of former president Joseph Kabila, he is calling on armed groups scouring swathes of the DRC to join his movement.

According to its founder, the aim of the "Alliance Fleuve Congo" is to save the DRC, which has been in a state of chronic instability for three decades, mainly due to the weakness and absence of the state, to re-establish its sovereignty and put an end to insecurity.[...]

Corneille Nangaa also thanked the Kenyan authorities for their hospitality. Nairobi, whose soldiers involved in the East African force recently left the DRC [is alleged to collude] with rebel groups, including the M23. 

15 Dec 23

[PulseLive is Private Kenyan Media]

"The Ministry of Foreign & Diaspora Affairs of the Republic of Kenya refers to press reports that some nationals of the Democratic Republic of Congo claiming association with rebel groups within DRC addressed a press conference in Nairobi and made statements that are prima facie inimical to the constitutional order of the Democratic Republic of Congo," Mudavadi stated.

"The Ministry wishes to note that Kenya is an open and democratic state where freedom of the press is vouchsafed. As such, nationals and non-nationals may engage the Kenyan media without reference to the government.

"Kenya strongly disassociates itself from any utterances or activities likely to injure the peace and security of the friendly Nation of DRC and has commenced investigation to determine the identities of the makers of the statement and the extent to which their utterances fall outside constitutionally protected speech. Kenya further affirms its non-involvement in the internal affairs of DRC and commits to continue supporting the peace, security, and democratic consolidation of the country." Mudavadi added in the statement.

17 Dec 23

[BBC is UK State Media]

[Machine Translation]

Corneille Nangaa of the Alliance Fleuve Congo released the first announcement that he is in Rutshuru

The head of the political and military coalition that opposes the government of Kinshasa recently formed in Nairobi, Kenya, issued his first statement signed from Rutshuru in the province of North Kivu, asking the public to reconcile and remove "urgently" President Felix Tshisekedi.

In a statement presented by M23's Bertrand Bisimwa , Corneille Nanga, who headed the electoral commission of DR Congo in the 2018 presidential election that gave victory to Tshisekedi, condemned the latest election.

This month, on the last day of the campaign, President Tshisekedi said that this conference of Corneille Nangaa in collaboration with the M23 movement was a "Nairobi joke" organized by Rwanda.

He said: “If they provoke us even a little, very little, I will gather both houses of the Legislative Assembly and ask for permission to declare war on Rwanda.

He added: "...don't be afraid, today our army can shoot in Kigali in Goma... Kagame [the president] will not sleep in his house, he will sleep in the forest, playing with other people and not playing with Fatshi Beton (Felix Tshisekedi)."

29 Dec 23

[the-garbanzo-annex-jr]

by Corey Walker

One of the judges on the top United Nations court who voted on Friday to end Israel’s military operation in the southern Gaza city of Rafah was previously nominated by US President Joe Biden to serve as a senior State Department official.

In Aug. 2021, Biden announced his intent to nominate Sarah Cleveland, an American, to serve as the legal adviser for the State Department in his administration. The nomination was ultimately unsuccessful, as she was not voted out of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Two years later in November 2023, Cleveland, a former member of the UN Human Rights Committee, won election to sit on the bench of the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken responded to Cleveland’s election by showering her with fawning praise. He expressed approval of Cleveland’s “vision for an ICJ that is judicially independent, preserves the integrity and authority of the court, and ensures the dignity of all people.”

The ICJ fills five seats during each general election cycle. Judges are nominated by a group of international law experts appointed by their country’s government. The United Nations General Assembly and Security Council member countries vote separately and secretly to pick the judges who will sit on the bench. 

In an interview with Columbia Law School, Cleveland shared that her successful election could be attributed in part to her willingness to vote against American interests. 

“Fundamentally, what the rest of the world wanted to see was that the US candidate to the court was independent from the US government, was interested in their individual countries, and understood their perspective,” Cleveland said. “They did not want a judge from a permanent member of the Security Council who would predictably vote for her own country’s interests.”

To win support from countries in the United Nations, Cleveland touted her history of standing against the US government’s positions on controversial issues. 

“I have a long record of independence from the US government, since my very first case — as a student in a human rights clinic at Yale Law School — which was a lawsuit against the US government on behalf of Haitian refugees detained at Guantanamo,” she said. 

On Friday, the ICJ issued a ruling demanding that Israel halt its military operations against the Hamas terrorist group in Rafah and allow for significantly more humanitarian aid to enter Gaza. Critics of the court have accused the ICJ, along with other major international organizations, of harboring substantial and unfair bias against Israel. 

The order was adopted by the panel of 15 judges from around the world in a 13-2 vote, opposed by judges from Uganda and Israel itself.

If carried out, the ICJ ruling would effectively end Israel’s campaign to dismantle Hamas, the Palestinian terrorist group that launched the war in Gaza by invading southern Israel on Oct. 7, murdering 1,200 people, and kidnapping over 250 others as hostages.

However, Israeli officials have indicated the Jewish state will not comply with the ruling of the court, which has no enforcement powers.

[ausetkmt]

North Carolina’s Republican-controlled House passed a previously vetoed proposal Wednesday to restrict how teachers can discuss certain racial topics that some lawmakers have equated to “critical race theory.”

The House voted 68-49 along party lines for legislation to ban public school teachers from compelling students to believe they should feel guilty or responsible for past actions committed by people of the same race or sex.

United in their opposition, House Democrats challenged Republican claims that the bill would reduce discrimination and argued that a comprehensive history education should make students uncomfortable.

Republican seat gains in the midterm elections give them greater leverage this year to override any veto by Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper, who blocked a similar proposal in 2021 and urged legislators this month in his State of the State address, “Don’t make teachers re-write history.” But Republicans, who are one seat short in the House of a veto-proof supermajority, will likely need some Democratic support for the measure to become law.

North Carolina is among 10 states considering such proposals, according to an Education Week analysis. Eighteen others have already limited how teachers can discuss racism and sexism in the classroom.

Gaston County Republican Rep. John Torbett said the proposal, which now heads to the Senate, would prohibit schools from endorsing controversial concepts, including that one race or sex is inherently superior.

“This great education state must have an educational system that unites and teaches our children, not divides and indoctrinates them,” said Torbett, the bill’s sponsor.

Several Democrats, including Reps. Rosa Gill of Wake County and Laura Budd of Mecklenburg County, raised concerns that the language is vague and does not outline clear boundaries for teachers. Budd said this “massive failure” places unnecessary pressure on teachers who may feel like they need to stifle productive classroom discussions to keep their jobs.

“The bill, on its face, is the obvious attempt to micromanage from the General Assembly into the classrooms,” she said during floor debate. “It’s overreach and will have a chilling effect on teachers and educators in curtailing what they think they’re allowed to teach.”

Republican lawmakers in committee had applauded the measure for “banning” critical race theory, a complex academic and legal framework that centers on the idea that racism is embedded in the nation’s systems and institutions that perpetuate inequality.

The bill does not explicitly mention the framework, but it would prohibit teaching that the government is “inherently racist” or was created to oppress people of another race or sex. Its language mirrors a model proposal from Citizens for Renewing America, a conservative social welfare group founded by a former Trump administration official to rid the nation’s schools of critical race theory.

Republicans nationwide have spun the phrase into a catchall for racial topics related to systemic inequality, inherent bias and white privilege. While many K-12 public schools teach about slavery and its aftermath, education officials have found little to no evidence that critical race theory, by definition, is being taught.

North Carolina schools would also be required under the bill to notify the state’s Department of Public Instruction and publish information online at least a month before they plan to host a diversity trainer or a guest speaker who has previously advocated for the beliefs restricted by the legislation.

Cary mother and activist Michelle O’Keefe was among several parents who testified against the bill in a Tuesday committee meeting. O’Keefe said she doesn’t want her young child sheltered from learning about racism and other atrocities in history, as long as those lessons are age-appropriate.

“The best way to keep history from repeating itself,” she said, “is to know the history.”

Another mother worried she could be banned from speaking at her child’s school career day because she has a documented history of speaking out against social injustices. Democratic Rep. Julie von Haefen of Wake County expressed a similar concern that she might no longer be able to substitute teach because of her record on racial justice issues and gender equality.

[gatheringbones]

[“The site of the fair in South Chicago was nicknamed the “White City” for the massive and glistening white fake-marble buildings constructed specifically for the fair, not meant to be permanent, but rather templates for how a future city should appear, grandiose and imposing, as well as symbolizing the triumph of capitalism. On the carnivalesque midway of the White City was the Ferris wheel, which was invented for the occasion. Not far away, the historian Frederick Jackson Turner delivered his thesis, “The Significance of the Frontier in American History,” to the American Historical Association, which had convened its annual meeting at the exposition. Nearby, Buffalo Bill’s Wild West performed.

Without mentioning the 1890 Wounded Knee Massacre, Turner chose the year 1890 as the demarcation of the end of the frontier, warning that the seemingly endless moving frontier of white settlement that had formed US wealth, character, and culture had closed, and the future was not clear without the frontier escape valve for the teeming landless masses. Buffalo Bill had the answer: fantasy, reenactment, premiering the soon-to-be-born western movies.

Self-identified Christian socialist and ordained Baptist minister Francis Bellamy wrote a pledge of allegiance to the US flag in 1892, which was a presidential election year in addition to being the quadricentenary of Columbus. Both presidential candidates, Benjamin Harrison and Grover Cleveland, urged the use of the new pledge as a way of honoring Columbus. Bellamy’s stated goal for the pledge was to advance patriotism by flying the flag in every school in the country along with mandatory reciting of the pledge. Bellamy led the way in organizing teachers to use a packaged Columbus Day educational kit he assembled. In an amazing feat, on October 21, 1892, Bellamy and his volunteers were able to involve twelve million schoolchildren around the country, including a hundred thousand Chicago schoolchildren, to simultaneously salute the flag and recite the pledge of allegiance.”]

roxanne dunbar-ortiz, from not a nation of immigrants: settler colonialism, white supremacy, and a history of erasure and exclusion, 2021

[pannaginip]

(This story was was originally written as part of the 2023 Aries Rufo Journalism Fellowship under Rappler.)

In 2020, Jann Alexis Lappas got a call from his parents who told him that they received a sum of P700 pesos to sign documents.

The documents were, according to Lappas’s parents, attendance sheets for a community consultative assembly (CCA) for San Miguel Corporation-owned Pan Pacific Renewable Power Philippines Corp.’s Gened dam projects, part of the crucial process to secure free, prior and informed consent (FPIC) permitting big projects in indigenous peoples’ ancestral domains.

This development came as a surprise to Lappas because prior to the incident, as early as 2019, the community had already thumbed down the project’s progression when 300 elders issued their first of many Resolutions of Non-Consent against the dams.

According to a June 2021 FPIC report, if the Gened-1 dam pushes through, will submerge communities in the barangays or villages of Bulu, Magabta, Poblacion, and Waga in Kabugao town, and Lt. Balag in Pudtol town. Some 7,465 out of Kabugao’s 18,782 recorded 2020 population would be affected by this flooding. Another 4,995 in Baliwanan, Kumao, Lenneng, and Karagawan are projected to be negatively affected by the project.

Lappas and his group of Isnag friends would continue to post updates about the dam negotiations on their personal Facebook pages, but Kabugao Youth would only be formed in December 2020, fresh off of the heels of Typhoon Ulysses.

Social media is a core source of information and connectivity in Kabugao, being comprised of 21 villages and communities, many of which are remote.

As the movement gained traction, the Kabugao Youth network gradually became a frontliner in the struggle to oppose the dam.

[National Commission on Indigenous Peoples or] NCIP FPIC guidelines state that no meetings, negotiations, or assemblies related to the FPIC process should be conducted outside of the affected ancestral domain.

At the same time, according to Solano, the NCIP is not supposed to conduct or facilitate activities to directly convince the IP communities of the merits of the projects [...]

In January 15 of 2021, 300 Kabugao Isnags passed another resolution opposing and banning the proposed hydroelectric power projects, but then-regional director of the NCIP Marlon Bosantog declared the resolution invalid as only 20 of the elders were “authorized” in accordance with a heavily contested December 23, 2019 resolution and proceeded with the issuance of the [Memorandum of Agreement or] MOA.

Said December resolution, which named 209 “authorized elders” to negotiate in behalf of the Isnag community, was found by the community, RA Cortes Law, and the NCIP’s own regional review team (RRT), to contain many irregularities including signatures of deceased individuals and duplicated signatures.

Many other irregularities have been reported by the elders of Kabugao in their resolutions and legal cases before the Office of the Ombudsman, as well as by Kabugao Youth in their regular postings to the local community.

The MOA would also generate much more opposition as the Isnag community was exposed to the exact terms of the dam and what they stood to lose, with individuals from the community claiming that they had their signatures and identities forged on the documents.

On May 18, RA Cortes Law also filed an electoral protest in behalf of the Isnag community and Isnag elder Roland Apilit to nullify the election of [John Amid] as [indigenous peoples mandatory representative or] IPMR for Kabugao, Apayao citing irregularities in the IPMR selection and the approval of IPMR selection guidelines without the approval and knowledge of the Isnag communities.

According to the NCIP on multiple occasions, the FPIC has been provided, allowing for the issuance of a certification precondition (CP), thus allowing Pan Pacific to continue with the project even through opposition.

As for the opposition of the Isnag community, the NCIP claims opposition is part of the agenda of the communist left.

On multiple occasions, the NCIP issued statements downplaying the opposition to the project as activity of the Communist Party of the Philippines – New People’s Army – National Democratic Front (CPP-NPA-NDF).

NCIP Chairman Allen Capuyan is the executive director of the National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict (NTF-ELCAC), while NCIP Regional Director Marlon Bosantog is the former spokesperson.

In order to proceed with the issuance of the MOA and the CP, NCIP higher-ups including Regional Director Atanacio Addog held efforts to advance the damming process using the forged documents with the individuals named as authorized elders in the December 2019 resolution instead of redoing the process amid staunch opposition from the local Isnag communities in Kabugao.

Kabugao elders share the sentiment [to keep fighting], writing their desire to keep the waters clean: “(We) would rather let the Apayao River flow freely and the same be inherited by the youth and those Isnag of Apayao yet unborn rather for their enjoyment and appreciation, rather to pass on an ancestral domain buried beneath a reservoir coupled with kilometers-stretched on filth brought by siltation and sedimentation.”

2023 Sept. 14

[newsinsider]

Who was Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi?

Ebrahim Raisi was an Iranian politician who served as eighth president of Iran from 2021 until his death in 2024.  A Principlist and a Muslim jurist, he became president after the 2021 election. In his early career, Raisi served in several positions in Iran's judicial system, including as Deputy Prosecutor and Prosecutor of Tehran. For his role on the so-called death committee during the 1988 executions of Iranian political prisoners, he became known as the "Butcher of Tehran". He was sanctioned by the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control in accordance with Executive Order 13876. He was accused of crimes against humanity by international human rights organizations and United Nations special rapporteurs. He was later Deputy Chief Justice (2004–2014), Attorney General (2014–2016), and Chief Justice (2019–2021). He was Custodian and Chairman of Astan Quds Razavi, a bonyad, from 2016 until 2019. He was a member of Assembly of Experts from South Khorasan Province, being elected for the first time in the 2006 election. He was the son-in-law of Mashhad Friday prayer leader and Grand Imam of Imam Reza shrine, Ahmad Alamolhoda.

Raisi ran for president in 2017 as the candidate of the conservative Popular Front of Islamic Revolution Forces, losing to moderate incumbent president Hassan Rouhani, 57% to 38.3%. Raisi successfully ran for president a second time in 2021 with 62.9% of the votes, succeeding Hassan Rouhani. According to many observers, the 2021 Iranian presidential election was rigged in favour of Raisi, who was considered an ally of Ali Khamenei. Raisi was often seen as a frontrunner to succeed Khamenei as Supreme Leader, but he died in the 2024 Varzaqan helicopter crash. Considered a hardliner in Iranian politics, Raisi's presidency saw deadlock in negotiations with the U.S. over the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and large-scale protests throughout the country in late 2022, triggered by the death of Mahsa Amini on 16 September. During Raisi's term, Iran intensified uranium enrichment, hindered international inspections, and supported Russia in its invasion of Ukraine. Additionally, Iran launched a missile and drone attack on Israel during the Gaza conflict and continued arming proxy groups like Hezbollah and the Houthi movement.

Early life and education

Ebrahim Raisi was born on 14 December 1960 to a clerical family in the Noghan district of Mashhad. His father, Seyed Haji, died when he was 5. Ancestrally, Raisi was among Husayn ibn Ali (Hussaini) Sayyids, and he was connected to Ali ibn Husayn Zayn al-Abidin Sayyids. Raisi passed his primary-education in "Javadiyeh school"; then started studying in the Hawza (Islamic seminary). In 1975, he went to "Ayatollah Boroujerdi School" in order to continue his education in Qom Seminary.[citation needed] He has claimed to have received a doctorate degree in private law from Motahari University; however, this has been disputed. 

Clerical credentials

Raisi began his studies at the Qom Seminary at the age of 15. He then decided to study in the Navvab school for a short time. After that, he went to Ayatollah Sayyed Muhammad Mousavi Nezhad school, where he studied while also teaching other students. In 1976, he went to Qom to continue his studies at the Ayatollah Borujerdi school. He was a student of Seyyed Hossein Borujerdi, Morteza Motahhari, Abolghasem Khazali, Hossein Noori Hamedani, Ali Meshkini and Morteza Pasandideh. Raisi also passed his "KharejeFeqh" (external-Fiqh) to Seyyed Ali Khamenei and Mojtaba Tehrani.  According to Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute, Raisi's "exact religious qualification" is a "sore point". "For a while" prior to investigation by the Iranian media, he "referred to himself" as "Ayatollah" on his personal website. However, according to Vatanka, the media "publicized his lack of formal religious education" and credentials, after which Raisi ceased claiming to hold the aforementioned rank. After this investigation and criticism he "refer[ed] to himself as hojat-ol-eslam", a clerical rank immediately beneath that of Ayatollah. Raisi subsequently again declared himself an Ayatollah shortly before the 2021 presidential election. The decree by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appointing him as President, refers to him as a hojat-ol-eslam. 

Judicial career

Early years

In 1981, he was appointed the prosecutor of Karaj. Later on, he was also appointed Prosecutor of Hamadan and served both positions together. He was simultaneously active in two cities more than 300 km away from each other. After four months, he was appointed Prosecutor of Hamadan Province. 

Tehran deputy prosecutor

He was appointed Deputy prosecutor of Tehran in 1985 and moved to the capital.  After three years and in early 1988, he was placed in the attention of Ruhollah Khomeini and received special provisions (independent from judiciary) from him to address legal issues in some provinces like Lorestan, Semnan and Kermanshah.

Source : Wikipedia

[mariacallous]

In January 2020, Mexico made history as the first Latin American country to adopt a feminist foreign policy. Pioneered by Sweden six years earlier in 2014, feminist foreign policy (FFP) initially began as a niche effort in the Nordic region. For many years, Sweden stood alone on the global stage, emphasizing that its FFP focused on enhancing women’s “rights, resources, and representation” in the country’s diplomatic and development efforts worldwide. That effort was the result of the vision and leadership of Sweden’s foreign minister at the time, Margot Wallström, although there was widespread support for the policy across the government and it was continued by subsequent ministers.

It would be another three years before other nations followed suit: In 2017, Canada announced a Feminist International Assistance Policy. At the end of 2018, Luxembourg’s new coalition government committed to developing a FFP in their coalition agreement. And in 2019, Mexico and France pledged to co-host a major women’s rights anniversary conference in 2021 while beginning to explore the development of feminist foreign policies simultaneously.

I had an inside view on that process having convened the existing FFP governments and numerous international experts just before Mexico’s announcement. Together, we developed a global definition and framework for FFP. As I wrote for this magazine in January 2020, this approach was largely followed by the Mexican policy. The goals for Mexico in adopting an FFP were to increase the rights of women and LGBTQ+ individuals on the world stage, diversify their diplomatic corps, boost resourcing for gender equality issues, and ensure that internal policies within the foreign ministry aligned with this approach, including a zero-tolerance policy toward gender-based harassment.

Now, under the leadership of a new female foreign minister, Alicia Bárcena, and following the election of Mexico’s first woman president, Claudia Sheinbaum, I was excited to travel to Mexico City in July as it hit another milestone: becoming the first country outside Europe to host the annual ministerial-level conference on FFP. It was an opportunity for me to take stock of what Mexico has achieved since it adopted an FFP, and to see what progress it has made toward its goals.

Initially convened by Germany’s Annalena Baerbock in 2022 and then by the Dutch last year, Mexico took a unique approach to the conference by focusing it on a specific policy issue—in this case, the forthcoming Summit of the Future. This conference, taking place at the U.N. General Assembly in September, aims to begin laying the groundwork for the successor goals to the Sustainable Development Goals framework. It is already a fraught and polarized process, and progressive leadership is sorely needed.

Last week provided clear evidence that Mexico is making progress in modeling that leadership—including in consistently advocating for progressive language in often contentious international multilateral negotiations, such as the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP). For example, in its interventions at the latest COP, Mexico placed human rights, intersectionality and gender equity at the heart of climate action and recognized the role of women environmental defenders and Indigenous women in a just transition.

“Mexico is often a lone voice in holding the line on critical human rights, Indigenous rights and gender equality language at the climate talks, even among the FFP countries,” said Bridget Burns, the executive director of the Women’s Environment and Development Organization who has spent the last 15 years organizing women’s rights activists in climate negotiations and attended the July conference to speak on the sustainable development panel.

Mexico’s decision to link their hosting of the FFP Conference to the Summit of the Future—as evidenced in an outcome document they published and are circulating for signature ahead of the General Assembly’s high-level week in September—challenged FFP governments to engage a feminist approach in mainstream foreign policy dialogue, not just in gender-related discussions like the U.N. Commission on the Status of Women. “The Summit of the Future aspires to a better tomorrow, but lofty goals won’t translate to real systemic change without feminist civil society,” said Sehnaz Kiymaz, senior coordinator of the Women’s Major Group.

On the multilateral front, Mexico has shown leadership by co-chairing the Feminist Foreign Policy Plus Group (FFP+) at the UN, alongside Spain. This body held the first ministerial-level meeting on FFP at the General Assembly last year and adopted the world’s first political declaration on FFP. Signed by 18 countries, governments pledged “to take feminist, intersectional and gender-transformative approaches to our foreign policies,” and outlined six areas for action in this regard. This was the first time FFP countries publicly pledged to work together as a group to address pressing global challenges through a feminist approach. While smaller subsets of this cohort have worked together multilaterally to condemn women’s rights rollbacks in Afghanistan or in support of an international legal framework on the right to care and be cared for, the first big test of this more systematic approach will be the forthcoming Summit of the Future, where feminists have been advocating for gender to be referenced as a cross-cutting priority.

Mexico has also recently ratified two international instruments to directly benefit women: Convention 189 of the International Labor Organization (ILO) on domestic workers and Convention 190 of the ILO on violence and harassment in the workplace. Under the mantle of its FFP, Mexico has championed the importance of care work in the advancement of women’s rights and countries’ development at the U.N. Human Rights Council and at the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean through the Global Alliance for Care Work.

While international women’s rights activists at the conference largely gave positive feedback on Mexico’s track record, the response from Mexican civil society was more critical. Activists organized a side event to present their more skeptical view of Mexican FFP. María Paulina Rivera Chávez, a member of the Mexican coalition and an organizer of the event, argued a conference could only go so far. “It is fundamental to decenter the state, understanding that feminist foreign policies must be horizontal,” she said.

A major theme of that side event and of Mexican activists’ interventions in the official ministerial conference was the incongruence of the Mexican government’s leadership on feminist approaches internationally while women’s human rights at home have suffered. Such criticisms of the Andrés Manuel L��pez Obrador government are not unfounded. In one particularly troubling interview a few years ago, he suggested that Mexico’s high rate of femicide—11 women are murdered daily, with rates on the rise compared to other crimes—was merely a false provocation by his political opponents. Negative biases against women are pervasive in Mexico, with 90 percent of the population holding such biases.

Mexico has made strides in improving gender equality in other areas, however. Women now make up half of the Mexican legislature and have been appointed to lead high-level institutions, such as the Supreme Court, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Central Bank, with cascading positive effects on gender equality. Bárcena, for instance, clearly asserted from her first speech on the job that Mexico’s FFP would remain a top priority. This is no accident. At the federal level, significant efforts have been made to enforce gender parity laws and implement more than 80 percent of the legal frameworks promoting, enforcing and monitoring gender equality as stipulated by international benchmarks. Mexican women have also seen some improvements in maternal mortality rates, access to internet services, and protections to the right to abortion, with numerous national commitments to improve gender equality, such as measures to alleviate the burden of care on women.

But while there has been an increase in the number of women in the legislature and government positions, women from Indigenous, Afro-descendent, and working-class backgrounds continue to be underrepresented in political roles. And there has been a steady increase over the last decade in femicides, disappearances and sexual violence which Mexican feminist organizations and international actors have found are directly linked to the militarization of law enforcement under the guise of Mexico’s war on drugs and organized crime.

Additional criticisms of the Mexican FFP itself include the foreign ministry’s insularity and reluctance to engage with Mexican feminist activists in the development and implementation of its FFP. There was also a hesitation by the previous foreign ministry leadership to collaborate with Inmujeres, Mexico’s gender ministry, preferring to keep control of the FFP within the foreign ministry alone. It is not uncommon for gender ministries to be excluded in foreign policymaking as they are often perceived as lacking the necessary expertise or authority on foreign policy. However, Inmujeres is an exception in this regard and the criticism was valid. This was on my mind as I participated in the conference last month, and straight out of the gate I could observe a clear departure from the past approach under Bárcena’s leadership: The foreign ministry officially partnered with Inmujeres to co-host the conference, and the heads of both agencies were equally prominent voices throughout the three-day event. Similarly, the foreign ministry also made efforts to engage Mexican feminist civil society in conference planning, inviting civil society to a consultation day in the weeks leading up to the conference.

Following the right-wing electoral successes and likely abandonment of FFP in countries like Sweden, Argentina, and potentially the Netherlands, the success of a Mexican model of FFP is all the more important. Mexican activists I spoke with expressed optimism about Bárcena’s leadership, which they had not extended to her predecessor. Certainly, there is some cynicism about whether Mexico’s next president, a woman, will be any better on the issue of femicide than her mentor and predecessor, López Obrador, but there is some room for hope. If the leadership of a female foreign minister like Bárcena has been more effective in mobilizing political and convening power behind FFP, there’s potential that Sheinbaum will also show more interest than her predecessor.

While Mexican civil society has critiqued that Sheinbaum did not present a plan on how she would continue and improve the country’s FFP and repair the government’s relationship with feminist civil society, Sheinbaum’s plan—entitled 100 Pasos Para La Transformación—takes a human rights-based approach to gender equality. This is promising, because political approaches, which are more common, tend to reduce the human rights of women, girls, and gender-diverse persons as a means to an end, such as better economic, education, or health outcomes. The plan proposes measures to alleviate the care burden on women, safeguard sexual and reproductive health and rights, protect LGBTQ+ communities, promote gender parity in cabinets, improve land rights for rural women, reduce femicides, and more.

That Sheinbaum has not explicitly addressed the importance of Mexico’s FFP is not necessarily surprising. Most feminist and women’s rights organizations are understandably more focused on issues within their own borders, and foreign policy rarely drives political power and the focus of the electorate. Discussion of feminist foreign policy is thus typically the domain of the foreign minister and in some cases other relevant ministers—such as international development in Germany, or the trade ministry in Sweden under its previous government. (Canada’s Justin Trudeau stands out as a rare exception, having championed feminism and Canada’s feminist approach to policymaking at the Group of Seven and international gender equality forums throughout his tenure as prime minister.)

But even without top-down leadership from a president, savvy officials within the Mexican foreign and gender ministries are using FFP to make progress. While there has not yet been a public accounting of the progress made in implementing FFP, the clear leadership Mexico is demonstrating on the world stage in key negotiations, its successful conference, and the anticipated new government set the stage for Mexico to boldly advance its FFP. It will serve as a valuable example to the world.

[crystalis]

"China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has released quite the explosive report on the US's National Endowment for Democracy (NED), explaining how under the cover of "promoting democracy", it has "long engaged in subverting state power in other countries, meddling in other countries’ internal affairs, inciting division and confrontation, misleading public opinion, and conducting ideological infiltration".

In short, it's subverting democracy, the exact contrary of what it says it's doing...

This is the link to the report:

The NED has long been infamous for doing this kind of stuff but there are a few things in the report that are really explosive:

1) Meddling on an enormous scale in Ukraine

The report claims that the NED "provided $65 million to the Ukrainian opposition during the 2004 Orange Revolution". They also write that "during the 2013-2014 Euromaidan, NED financed the Mass Media Institute to spread inflammatory information. NED also spent tens of millions of dollars in the use of such social media platforms as Facebook, X (formerly Twitter), and Instagram to spread disinformation, heighten ethnic tensions in Ukraine, and stir up ethnic antagonism in eastern Ukraine."

2) "Taking Mexico as a major target country for infiltration"

As the report details, the NED has financially supported numerous organizations like "Mexicans Against Corruption and Impunity (MCCI) and the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO), and obstructed the electricity reform in Mexico". They also write that "in 2021, the Mexican government sent a note to the US government condemning NED’s funding of anti-government organizations in Mexico as 'an act of interventionism' 'promoting a coup.'"

3) Interference in Serbia's elections

They write that "in April 2022 and December 2023, Serbia held its presidential, National Assembly and local elections. NED interfered in the entire election process, and went all out to root for pro-US opposition candidates in the run-up to the elections. In May 2023, after two consecutive shooting incidents in Serbia, NED-sponsored human rights groups and pro-US opposition organizations staged mass demonstrations to demand the resignation of the Serbian government."

4) Instigating the recent protests in Georgia against the government for its foreign agents bill

They write that the "NED funded the establishment of three local NGO groupings in Georgia at the beginning of the 21st century to organize demonstrations in capital Tbilisi. In May 2024, NED rallied support for and instigated protests in Georgia against the foreign agents bill."

5) Supporting "Taiwan independence" separatist forces

They write that the NED co-hosted events with Taiwan's separatist Democratic Progressive Party, "tried to mobilize 'democratic forces' to open up the 'frontline of democratic struggle in the East' and hype up the false narrative of 'Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow'".

Needless to say, all of this is a complete violation of the UN Charter: they violate both the principle of sovereign equality that guarantees each state's right to freely choose and develop its own political, social, economic, and cultural systems; as well as the principle of non-intervention in the domestic matters of other states. And I'm not even mentioning the violation of the victim states' domestic jurisdictions..."

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Rachel Savage at The Guardian:

Final results from Wednesday’s seismic South Africa elections have confirmed that the African National Congress (ANC) party has lost its majority for the first time in 30 years of full democracy, firing the starting gun on unprecedented coalition talks. The ANC, which led the fight to free South Africa from apartheid, won just 159 seats in the 400-member national assembly on a vote share of just over 40%. High unemployment, power cuts, violent crime and crumbling infrastructure have contributed to a haemorrhaging of support for the former liberation movement. The pro-business Democratic Alliance (DA) won 87 seats, uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) – a new party led by President Cyril Ramaphosa’s bitter rival, the former president Jacob Zuma – took 58, and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), a Marxist-Leninist party led by the ousted ANC youth leader Julius Malema, took 39.

The ANC also lost its majority in three provinces: Northern Cape; Gauteng, which is home to the commercial centre Johannesburg and the capital, Pretoria; and KwaZulu-Natal, where MK was the largest party. “What this election has made plain is that the people of South Africa expect their leaders to work together to meet their needs,” Ramaphosa told an audience of politicians, diplomats and civil society leaders after the official results announcement, as thunder rumbled outside. “They expect the parties for which they have voted to find common ground, to overcome their differences, to act and work together for the good of everyone.” Ramaphosa also joked, to laughter from the crowd, that he wished it was true when the electoral commission chair accidentally said that he was announcing the 2029 election results. The president faces questions about his future, though, as the ANC turns to the task of coalition building. Meanwhile, a spokesperson for Zuma’s MK party said they had boycotted the election results event.

Zuma had warned before the results announcement that it should not go ahead, saying “people would be provoked”, raising the spectre of the deadly riots that broke out when he was sent to prison in 2021. The position of Ramaphosa was not on the table during the coalition talks that will now take place, the general secretary of the ANC said before the final results were announced. ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula told a press conference at the election results centre: “If you come to us with a demand that Ramaphosa must step down as the president, that is not going to happen … It’s a no-go area. You come to us with that demand, forget it.” MK leaders have said they will not work with the ANC while it is led by Ramaphosa, who Zuma is hell-bent on exacting revenge against. Zuma was president from 2009 to 2018 and was forced to resign by the ANC amid corruption allegations, which he denies.

[...] A tie-up with the DA could be favoured by the more business-friendly wing of the ANC. However, such a coalition would face criticisms from the many black South Africans who see the white-led DA as favouring the interests of white people, which the DA denies. Some analysts have said that bringing in a third, black-led party could help the ANC head off those criticisms. DA leaders have said a coalition is an option, as well as a “confidence and supply” arrangement with an ANC minority government and staying in opposition. Another option for the ANC, and one that is likely to be preferred by the left wing of the party, is to link up with the EFF. That option would need another partner to clear the 50% needed, however. Often mentioned is the Inkatha Freedom party (IFP), which took 17 seats, and, like the MK, gets most of its support from Zulu people.

For the first time since the end of Apartheid in South Africa, the African National Congress won’t have a majority. The ANC, however, will continue to have the most seats, and need to form a coalition, likely with either the Democratic Alliance (DA) or the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and/or uMkhonto weSizwe (MK).

[warningsine]

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, who was killed when his helicopter crashed on May 19, 2024 in a mountainous border region, was a consummate loyalist whose passing will be a severe blow to the country’s conservative leadership.

The discovery of wreckage and bodies followed an overnight search operation hampered by weather and terrain. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei announced that there would be a five day period of public mourning in the country.

As an expert on Iran’s domestic politics and foreign policy, I believe concern in Tehran may extend beyond the potential human tragedy of the crash. The change forced by it will have important implications for an Iranian state that is consumed by domestic chaos, and regional and international confrontation.

Who was Ebrahim Raisi?

Since the Iranian Revolution of 1979, Raisi acted as an assiduous apparatchik of the Islamic Republic and a prominent protégé of Khamenei, who as supreme leader holds ultimate power in the Islamic Republic.

Before becoming president in 2021, Raisi held various positions inside the judiciary under the purview of the supreme leader. As a prosecutor, and at the end of the Iran-Iraq War in 1988, he sat on the committee that sentenced thousands of political prisoners to death.

The executions earned him the nickname the “Butcher of Tehran” and subsequently subjected him to sanctions by the United States and to condemnation by the United Nations and international human rights organizations.

Since 2006, Raisi served on the Assembly of Experts, a body that appoints and supervises the supreme leader.

And despite being seen as lacking charisma and eloquence, it was thought that Raisi, 63, was being groomed to succeed the 85-year-old Khamenei as supreme leader.

A checkered domestic record

Domestically, Raisi’s presidency was both the cause and consequence of a legitimacy crisis and societal chaos for the regime.

He controversially won the 2021 presidential election after a high number of candidate disqualifications by the Guardian Council, which vets candidates, and a historically low voter turnout of less than 50%.

To appease his conservative base, Raisi and his government reinvigorated the morality police and reimposed religious restrictions on society. This policy led to the Women, Life, Freedom protests sparked by the death in police custody of Mahsa Amini in 2022. The demonstrations proved to be the largest and longest in the Islamic Republic’s near 50-year history. They also resulted in unprecedented state repression, with over 500 protesters killed and hundreds more injured, disappeared and detained. Throughout the protests, Raisi demonstrated his loyalty to the supreme leader and conservative elites by doubling down on restrictions and crackdowns.

Meanwhile, under Raisi, Iran’s economy continued to suffer due to a combination of government mismanagement and corruption, along with U.S. sanctions that have intensified in response to Tehran’s domestic repression and overseas provocations.

Confrontation over rapprochement

Domestic turmoil under Raisi’s presidency was accompanied by shifts in Iran’s regional and international role.

As supreme leader, Khamenei has the final say on foreign policy. But Raisi presided over a state that continued down the path of confrontation toward its adversaries, notably the U.S. and Israel.

And whether out of choice or perceived necessity, Tehran has moved further away from any idea of rapprochement with the West.

Faced with increased U.S. sanctions, Iran under Raisi has been reluctant to revive the nuclear deal. Instead, Iran has increased uranium enrichment, blocked international inspectors, and become a nuclear threshold state.

Raisi also continued the “Look to the East” policy of his predecessor, Hassan Rouhani. To this end, he and his government pursued greater rapprochement with China.

Beijing, in turn, has offered an economic lifeline by importing Iranian oil and brokering a diplomatic agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia in March 2023.

Meanwhile, under Raisi’s presidency, Iran continued to serve as an ally and funder of anti-US and anti-West conflicts, delivering combat drones to Russia for use in Ukraine and providing arms to various regional proxies in the Middle East.

Since the war in Gaza began on Oct. 7, 2023, Iran under Khamenei and Raisi had maintained a delicate balance between enabling its regional proxies to counter Israel and the United States while avoiding a direct confrontation with both countries, who are conventionally superior foes.

This balance was momentarily disrupted when the Islamic Republic directly attacked Israel with drones and missiles for the first time in history in April in retaliation for a strike on Iran’s consulate in Damascus.

Raisi – although not directly responsible for foreign policy – had been a key supporter of the Iranian regime’s attempts to further distance itself from the established international order and seek alliances with countries similarly antagonistic toward the West.

Helicopter crashed close to Iranian border

At the time of the helicopter crash, Raisi and his colleagues were returning from a dam inauguration ceremony held in neighboring Azerbaijan. The ceremony was presumably intended for Iran to ingratiate itself with Azerbaijan, having earlier taken an ambiguous, if not adversarial, position in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict – which ended in a convincing Azerbaijani victory in late 2023.

What a change in president could mean

In Raisi, Supreme Leader Khamenei had a longtime loyalist, regime insider and a prospective successor.

Under the Iranian constitution, any death of a president results in the first vice president serving as interim president. In this case, that means Mohammad Mokhber, who is a politician much in the same making of Raisi, and who has been a prominent member of the Iran team negotiating weapons deals with Moscow.

Iran will also have to hold presidential elections within 50 days. It remains to be seen who the supreme leader would give the nod to as a future president and potential successor.

But it is all but certain that conservatives in Tehran will continue to circle the wagons, given the internal and external pressure they face.

Domestically, this could take the form of greater state repression and election manipulation. Regionally and internationally, I believe it could mean forging stronger ties with budding allies and pursuing calculated confrontation against traditional adversaries.

[zvaigzdelasas]

WaPo - In China’s shadow, U.S. rushes back to neglected Indian Ocean island (3 Sep 23)

[WaPo is Private US Media]

At the height of the Cold War, the U.S. Air Force tracking station that monitored Soviet satellites from this island’s soaring tropical forests was a focus of Seychelles life.[...] Then, the Cold War ended, the Soviet Union collapsed and in 1996 the Americans left, dismantling the tracking station and shutting down their embassy — citing budgetary reasons for abandoning what had seemingly become an irrelevant corner of the world.

Today, the compound where Americans and Seychellois partied is home to the Seychelles Tourism Academy, where young islanders training to be tour guides, hoteliers and masseuses take classes, among other subjects, in Chinese[...] In June, Seychelles became the latest in a string of small nations around the world in which the United States has established, restored or is planning to open an embassy[...]

Seychelles offers an example of the ways America’s absence opened the door to Chinese influence. In the 27 years since the United States pulled out, China has built schools, hospitals, houses for low-income families and public amenities, winning sympathy among Seychellois who felt abandoned by the U.S. departure. “They do the little things that America doesn’t do. This is where the Americans are weak. There is nothing we can say America built,” said Seychelles President Wavel Ramkalawan in an interview. “This is why countries like China have come in, because there was a vacuum.”

Seychelles officials say they are delighted to have the Americans back but also recognize that China is likely the main reason for the return, potentially pulling Seychelles into the big power rivalry.

“We cannot say we are naive. We do understand the competition going on. In the Cold War we had the United States and the Soviet Union and now it is the United States and China,” Seychelles Foreign Minister Sylvestre Radegonde said in an interview. “Someone woke up and realized how important it is to counter the Chinese influence.” The United States now has ground to make up, he said. “When you are late at a party, the party starts without you, so you have to make up time. It’s a fact that China has been a long time here. They have a lot of sympathy.”[...]

China is also the only country to have maintained diplomatic missions in all six of the Indian Ocean island nations that until recently were represented by three U.S. embassies, noted Darshana Baruah, who heads Carnegie’s Indian Ocean Initiative.[...]

Top Chinese officials regularly visit — China’s President Hu Jintao called Seychelles “a shining pearl” during a stop in 2007, and Foreign Minister Wang Yi was here in 2021, describing Seychelles as “an important member of the big family of China-Africa solidarity and cooperation.” When the new U.S. Embassy in Seychelles was launched in June, Richard Verma, the deputy secretary of state for management and resources, became the most senior U.S. government official to visit the nation since the 1990s.[...]

“Our foreign policy is to treat every country, big or small, as an equal,” said Mu Jianfeng, China’s charge d’affaires in Seychelles. “I don’t know why they closed and I don’t know why they opened,” he said of the Americans. “But if they think Seychelles is important they will have an embassy here.”[...]

Seychelles does not count China among its top trading partners. Most of its goods are imported from the United Arab Emirates, South Africa and the European Union.[...]

China built the stately white-pillared National Assembly building where the democratically elected parliament meets, and the adjoining Supreme Court, both important symbols of the country’s identity as a nation. It’s in the process of completing a new headquarters for the state broadcasting company, which will more than double the network’s space. Thousands of Seychellois live in housing built by China and made available at subsidized prices — a shortage of housing for the least well-off is identified by Seychelles officials as one of the country’s biggest social needs.

The Chinese [sic] have invited hundreds of Seychellois on visits and scholarships to China, and China’s Confucius Institute teaches Chinese classes in primary schools, the university, which China built in the 1980s, an adult education center in the capital and at the Seychelles Tourism Academy.[...]

U.S. officials say that countering China’s presence is not the only reason for the return.[...] Although Seychelles has been a multiparty democracy for the past two decades, elections in 2020 brought an opposition party to power for the first time[...]

the U.S. Embassy in Mauritius has been responsible for Seychelles diplomacy since the pullout in 1996.[...]

Radegonde, the [Seychellois] foreign minister, said there is little doubt China is a key motive. “The U.S. coming back cannot be because we are lovely people,” he said, adding “we are.”[...]

In 2011, the United States established a secret drone base at Seychelles airport to assist with counterterrorism operations in Somalia and Yemen. [...]

The abrupt departure in 1996 once the nation no longer served U.S. interests left Seychellois feeling they had been used, and their return now, at a time of heightened competition with a different rival, gives rise to suspicions they are being used again, many Seychellois say.[...]

“The sole reason the Americans are here is because it’s seen as an opportunity to outmaneuver the Chinese,” said Ralph Volcere, who publishes the Seychelles Independent newsletter and says he’s glad the Americans are coming back. But he’s wary too, and suspicious of American motives. Closing the embassy damaged perceptions of the United States, and Washington will have to work hard to convince Seychellois that their motives are genuine, he said. “The Chinese came to build schools and houses, and the Americans are coming for naval operations,” he said. “The Americans can’t just come here and put warships in the port and people will be happy.”[...]

And what will happen if the rivalry with China is resolved? Will the Americans leave again? wondered Danny Faure, the former president who lost the 2020 elections to Ramkalawan. “With the United States it’s always based on how they respond to geopolitical concerns,” he said. “This shouldn’t be a flash in the pan. If you do value the relationship, the cost shouldn’t matter.” His government had good relations with the Chinese, and he visited Beijing in 2018. He says China never asked anything in return for its largesse or sought to extract any concessions from Seychelles. “Genuinely over 40 years we have become great friends,” he said. “This won’t change whether the United States comes or goes.”

[uomminecraftsociety]

2024 UK Local Elections

So every set of elections we have in the UK, I kind of go crazy, pull an all nighter just following the election results by filling my own spreadsheet. But you know what... I'll shitpost election results here.

THESE ARE NOT RESULTS AS OF YET, THESE ARE AS OF YET UNANNOUNCED

Also, none of what I say really matters, I'm not an analyst or anything, just a guy who follows elections too excitedly.

Now granted, I don't know how late I will be able to follow the election results for, especially with how long it will take the election results will take to come in. I also can't follow all the elections so here are the ones I will be following:

Police and Crime Commissioners

Conservatives won 29 of the commissioner positions in 2021.

Labour won 7 of the commissioner positions in 2021, 3 of which were in Wales

Plaid Cymru won 1 of the commissioner positions in 2021

These elections generally cover rural areas, hence why it is so Conservative. These are areas which Labour would like too see gains in if they are to win the next general election, as many are predicting them to.

Council Elections

There are many council elections occurring, too many to properly follow but here are the ones I will be following:

Dudley - Currently Conservative but only just, a good indication of how much of a swing will occur.

Bristol - The results for the constituencies within Bristol for the upcoming general election could be quite an interesting one as many parties have shown promising results in recent council elections, this could be a good indicator for where the city could go.

Peterborough - Currently Conservative, with a mix of support for other parties, a good measure on how strong strong the swing to other parties are.

North Hertfordshire - No overall control, with very close results in 2021 between Labour, Conservative and Lib Dems, similar to Peterborough, would be a good indication of where new support lies.

Local elections which likely would likely lead to a conservative minority or even a mild conservative

Gloucester - Conservatives have 26 of a required 20 seats, with Lib Dems next largest 16 seats behind.

Havant - Conservatives have 28 of a required 19 seats, with 24 more seats than 2nd place Labour.

Greater Manchester Council elections will of course be followed as well:

Bolton - Labour minority, many parties in opposition with strong presence from Reform which could see an increase of support with the current swing.

Bury - Labour Majority, with Conservative minority and a similarly large local interest party.

City of Manchester - Strong Labour majority.

City of Salford - Strong Labour majority.

Oldham - Light Labour majority, Labour did poorly in recent neighbouring Rochdale by-election

Rochdale - Labour Majority, aforementioned by election results were poor.

Stockport - Liberal Democrats the largest party in minority with Labour close behind

Tameside - Strong Labour majority

Trafford - Labour Majority

Wigan - Strong Labour Majority

Mayoral Elections

All of the mayoral elections will be followed, though most noteworthy are:

Tees Valley - Strong support for the incumbent Tory candidate.

West Midlands - Less strong Conservative presence but often reported that their image in the area is independent of the party.

East Midlands - New mayoral position, probably would have gone conservative in 2021 if it were to run, but not strong support.

North East - New mayoral position, mostly Labour support and would probably stay that way.

York and North Yorkshire - Historically strong Conservative support, probably will stick that way. Region has Rishi Sunak's seat.

London Assembly and Mayoral Elections

What it says on the tin. All 3 polls will be followed.

Blackpool South By-Election

Probably will go Labour's way considering it recently flipped to the Conservatives, historically was Labour and the Conservative running there left on a scandal. Though as always, interesting to see the election swing.