#NOAA SWPC

[meteorologistaustenlonek]

"Today, at about 4:22 am EDT (12/1222 UTC), the likely arrival of a CME occurred. This prompted a G2 warning. Most impacts will be relatively minor, but there is an increased likelihood of seeing the aurora at higher latitudes at night. Visti https://swpc.noaa.gov for more info"

[swpc-bot--unoffical]

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2025 Jan 05 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 05-Jan 07 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 05-Jan 07 2025 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 00-03UT 3.67 3.00 2.67 03-06UT 2.67 3.67 2.33 06-09UT 3.00 2.67 2.00 09-12UT 3.67 2.33 2.33 12-15UT 3.00 2.00 1.33 15-18UT 3.33 2.33 2.00 18-21UT 3.33 2.67 2.00 21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 2.33 Rationale: Isolated G1 periods remain likely on 05 Jan as CH HSS effects persist. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 05-Jan 07 2025 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 S1 or greater 99% 25% 10% Rationale: An S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm is expected to continue on 05 Jan. A return to background-like conditions is expected by 06 Jan where a slight chance for an event will remain for 07 Jan. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Jan 04 2025 1248 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 05-Jan 07 2025 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 R1-R2 75% 75% 75% R3 or greater 25% 25% 25% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for isolated R3 (Strong) or greater events through 07 Jan, as AR 3947 continues to mature and a number of active regions approach the western limb.

[meteorologistaustenlonek]

New #solarstorm, possible #auroras as far south as Alabama & California

A new #CoronalMassEjection has occurred on the Sun. The energy from this latest blast is expected to arrive in Earth's neighborhood in the next few days, possibly triggering #auroras as far south as the @WDEFNews12 viewing area. Stay tuned for updates.

[meteorologistaustenlonek]

Solar shockwave known as a CME (coronal mass ejection) hit the Earth's atmosphere earlier today causing a G2 level #geomagneticstorm. Overall effects are expected to be minimal, outside of some fluctuations in the power grid. Could be a higher chance of seeing the aurora farther south later tonight.

[swpc-bot--unoffical]

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 6 (G2)

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06 Serial Number: 560 Issue Time: 2025 Feb 15 1034 UTC WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected Valid From: 2025 Feb 15 1030 UTC Valid To: 2025 Feb 15 1500 UTC Warning Condition: Onset NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms. Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible. Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes. Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

[swpc-bot--unoffical]

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 8 (G4)

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK08 Serial Number: 50 Issue Time: 2025 Apr 16 2054 UTC ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 8, 9- Threshold Reached: 2025 Apr 16 2055 UTC Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC Active Warning: Yes NOAA Scale: G4 - Severe NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 45 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems may mistakenly trip out key assets from the power grid. Induced pipeline currents intensify. Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low earth orbit satellites, and tracking and orientation problems may occur. Navigation - Satellite navigation (GPS) degraded or inoperable for hours. Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation sporadic or blacked out. Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Alabama and northern California.

[swpc-bot--unoffical]

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2025 Jun 01 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 01-Jun 03 2025 is 7.67 (NOAA Scale G4). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 01-Jun 03 2025 Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 00-03UT 4.00 7.00 (G3) 5.33 (G1) 03-06UT 4.00 7.67 (G4) 5.67 (G2) 06-09UT 4.00 6.67 (G3) 5.00 (G1) 09-12UT 3.67 6.33 (G2) 4.67 (G1) 12-15UT 7.67 (G4) 6.00 (G2) 4.67 (G1) 15-18UT 7.67 (G4) 6.00 (G2) 4.33 18-21UT 7.33 (G3) 5.67 (G2) 4.67 (G1) 21-00UT 7.33 (G3) 5.33 (G1) 4.33 Rationale: By midday on 01 Jun, conditions are expected to increase rapidly with the arrival of the expected CME from 31 May. G3-G4 (Strong-Severe) conditions are likely, with a chance for G5 (Extreme) levels on 01-02 Jun. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) conditions are expected to persist on 03 Jun. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 01-Jun 03 2025 Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 S1 or greater 75% 75% 75% Rationale: S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected to persist on 01-03 Jun. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 31 2025 0030 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 01-Jun 03 2025 Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 R1-R2 65% 65% 65% R3 or greater 25% 25% 25% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 01 Jun - 03 Jun due to the flare potential from multiple complex regions on the Sun's visible disk.

[swpc-bot--unoffical]

NOAA Geomagnetic Forecast

:Product: NOAA 3-day Geomagnetic Forecasts :Issued: 2025 May 31 2200 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # NOAA Ap Index Forecast Observed Ap 30 May 030 Estimated Ap 31 May 018 Predicted Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun 096-100-044 NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun Active 01/01/15 Minor storm 01/10/30 Moderate storm 35/30/35 Strong-Extreme storm 65/60/20 NOAA Kp index forecast 01 Jun - 03 Jun Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 00-03UT 4.00 7.00 5.33 03-06UT 4.00 7.67 5.67 06-09UT 4.00 6.67 5.00 09-12UT 3.67 6.33 4.67 12-15UT 7.67 6.00 4.67 15-18UT 7.67 6.00 4.33 18-21UT 7.33 5.67 4.67 21-00UT 7.33 5.33 4.33

[swpc-bot--unoffical]

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2025 Jan 08 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 08-Jan 10 2025 is 3.67 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 08-Jan 10 2025 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 00-03UT 3.67 1.33 1.33 03-06UT 2.33 1.33 1.33 06-09UT 1.67 1.67 1.33 09-12UT 0.67 1.33 1.33 12-15UT 1.67 1.33 1.33 15-18UT 1.67 1.33 1.67 18-21UT 2.00 1.67 1.67 21-00UT 2.33 1.67 1.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 08-Jan 10 2025 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: A slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storming will persist through 10 Jan as multiple CME producing regions transit and exit the western limb. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Jan 07 2025 2305 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 08-Jan 10 2025 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 R1-R2 55% 55% 55% R3 or greater 15% 15% 15% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for isolated R3 (Strong) or greater events through 10 Jan. This is based on the magnetic complexity and persistent activity of Region 3947.

[swpc-bot--unoffical]

Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2025 Jan 06 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at moderate levels with a total of three M-class flares, all from Region 3947 (N11E21, Dkc/beta-gamma-delta). The largest of these events was an M3.1/1n flare at 06/0152 UTC. The other two M-class flares were an M2.4 flare at 05/1537 UTC and an M1.4/1f flare at 06/0350 UTC. Multiple C-class flares observed from this region as well. Region 3947 maintained a weak delta signature in its trailing spots, but observed slight overall decay. Region 3941 (S06W74, Dso/beta) produced a C5.0 flare at 05/1817 UTC, and Region 3949 (S05W53, Cso/beta) added a C4.8/Sf at 05/1807 UTC. Region 3943 (S16W10, Cso/beta) contributed a C4.3 flare at 05/2057 UTC, and Region 3945 rounded out the C-class flares with a C3.2/Sf flare at 06/0751 UTC. The remaining active regions were either relatively stable or in decay. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. However, a fast CME originating from AR 3939 on 04 Jan was modeled and determined to be a glancing blow at Earth by late on 06 Jan with the bulk of the material being well ahead of Earth's orbit. .Forecast... R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for isolated R3 (Strong) or greater events through 07 Jan, as AR 3947 continues to mature and a number of active regions approach the western limb. Probabilities decrease slightly on 08 Jan as multiple regions transit and exit the western limb, but AR 3947 remains. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached a peak flux of 1,070 pfu at 05/1950 UTC, but was not sustained long enough to warrant a SWPC electron flux alert. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux began the period in S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels at 04/2255 UTC, reached a peak flux of 20 pfu at 05/0055 UTC and ended at 06/0940 UTC. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to briefly reach high levels early on 06 Jan and return to normal to moderate levels for 07-08 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue a gradual trend towards background-like levels over the course of 06 Jan while a chance for another event remains. A slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storming will persist on 07 Jan and through 08 Jan as multiple CME producing regions transit and exit the western limb. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment reflected sustained, but slightly weakening, positive polarity CH HSS influence. Total field primarily ranged 6-9 nT, the Bz component underwent several, sustained southward deflections of -5 to -7 nT, and solar wind speeds gradually decreased from ~600 km/s to -530 km/s. Phi remained in a positive orientation. .Forecast... An enhanced solar wind environment due to positive polarity CH HSS influence is expected to persist, although gradually weakening, through 08 Jan. An additional shock to the environment is likely by late on 06 Jan due to the aforementioned 04 Jan CME giving glancing effects. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. .Forecast... G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely, with a chance for an isolated G2 (Moderate) period, by late on 06 Jan due to glancing effects from the periphery of the 04 Jan CME. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 07 Jan as any CME effects linger, coupled with weakening positive polarity CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 08 Jan as CH HSS effects taper off.

[swpc-bot--unoffical]

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2025 Jan 06 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 06-Jan 08 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 06-Jan 08 2025 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 00-03UT 3.33 4.00 2.33 03-06UT 4.00 3.33 2.67 06-09UT 3.00 2.67 2.67 09-12UT 2.67 2.33 1.67 12-15UT 3.33 2.00 1.67 15-18UT 3.33 2.00 1.67 18-21UT 3.33 2.00 2.00 21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 2.33 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely, with a chance for an isolated G2 (Moderate) period, by late on 06 Jan due to glancing effects from the periphery of the 04 Jan CME. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 06-Jan 08 2025 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 S1 or greater 15% 15% 15% Rationale: A slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storming will persist on 07 Jan and through 08 Jan as multiple CME producing regions transit and exit the western limb. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Jan 06 2025 0152 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 06-Jan 08 2025 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 R1-R2 75% 75% 60% R3 or greater 25% 25% 15% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for isolated R3 (Strong) or greater events through 07 Jan, as AR 3947 continues to mature and a number of active regions approach the western limb. Probabilities decrease slightly on 08 Jan as multiple regions transit and exit the western limb, but AR 3947 remains.

[swpc-bot--unoffical]

Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2025 May 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center ****AMENDMENT**** Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels due to frequent M-flare activity. Region 4100 (N08E07, Eki/beta-gamma-delta) produced a long-duration M8.1 (R2-Moderate) flare at 31/0005 UTC, the strongest of the period. Type II (estimated shock: 1,938 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps as well as a Tenflare (1,100 sfu) and a Castilli-U radio signature were also observed. Wide-spread coronal activity in EUV imagery was followed by a full-halo CME signature, first identified in GOES-19 CCOR-1 imagery at 31/0030 UTC. The event is current still being analyzed and modelled to determine the CME's estimated time of arrival at Earth. The M3.4/1b flare at 30/0613 UTC, produced by Region 4100 was analyzed and modelled. WSA-Enlil results suggested Earth is likely to see the periphery of the CME on 03 Jun. Other activity included an impulsive M4.5/1n (R1-Minor) at 31/0808 UTC. A Tenflare (220 sfu) and Type IV radio sweep accompanied the event. No potentially Earth-directed ejecta was observed in subsequent coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be moderate with elevated potential for M-class flares(R1/R2 - Minor/Moderate) and a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3 - Strong) over 31 May- 02 Jun. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak of 4,876 pfu at 30/1700 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below S1 (Minor) threshold despite a slow-rising trend that followed the M8.1 flare from Region 4100. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 31 May - 02 Jun May due to coronal hole influence. There is an increasing chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm on 31 May - 02 Jun due to recent activity from Region 4100 as well as potential for future energetic eruptions. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected a negative polarity CH HSS regime. Solar wind speeds were between ~650-800 km/s, total magnetic field strength ranged from 4-7 nT, and the Bz component reached a maximum southward deflection of -7 nT. Phi angle was predominantly negative. .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to continue through 02 Jun as coronal hole HSS activity persists. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at mostly active levels, with an isolated G1 (Minor) period at the beginning of the UT day. All elevated geomagnetic conditions were due to the influence of a large, trans-equatorial, negative polarity, polar-connected coronal hole. .Forecast... Active to G1 (Minor) storm conditions are likely early on 01 Jun as CH HSS conditions persist. By as early as late on 01 Jun to early on 02 Jun, conditions are expected to increase rapidly with the arrival of the expected CME from 31 May. G3-G4 (Strong-Severe) conditions are likely, with a chance for G5 (Extreme) levels on 01-02 Jun. ****AMD for increased geomagnetic activity forecast****

[swpc-bot--unoffical]

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2025 May 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center **AMENDMENT** A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 31-Jun 02 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 31-Jun 02 2025 May 31 Jun 01 Jun 02 00-03UT 3.33 4.00 7.67 (G4) 03-06UT 3.00 4.00 7.00 (G3) 06-09UT 3.00 4.00 6.67 (G3) 09-12UT 2.33 3.67 6.33 (G2) 12-15UT 3.00 2.67 6.00 (G2) 15-18UT 2.67 2.00 6.00 (G2) 18-21UT 2.67 2.00 5.67 (G2) 21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 6.67 (G3) 5.33 (G1) Rationale: G1 (Minor) storm conditions are likely early on 01 Jun as CH HSS conditions persist. By as early as late on 01 Jun to early on 02 Jun, conditions are expected to increase rapidly with the arrival of the expected CME from 31 May. G3-G4 (Strong-Severe) conditions are likely, with a chance for G5 (Extreme) levels on 01-02 Jun. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 31-Jun 02 2025 May 31 Jun 01 Jun 02 S1 or greater 15% 15% 15% Rationale: There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms over 31 May - 02 Jun, due primarily to recent activity from and future potential of Region 4100. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 31 2025 0005 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 31-Jun 02 2025 May 31 Jun 01 Jun 02 R1-R2 65% 65% 65% R3 or greater 15% 15% 15% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 31 May - 02 Jun due to the flare potential from multiple complex regions on the Sun's visible disk. ****AMD for increased geomagnetic activity forecast****

[swpc-bot--unoffical]

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G4 or Greater Predicted

Space Weather Message Code: WATA99 Serial Number: 9 Issue Time: 2025 May 31 1504 UTC WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G4 or Greater Predicted Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day: Jun 01: G3 (Strong) Jun 02: G4 (Severe) Jun 03: G2 (Moderate) THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 45 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems may mistakenly trip out key assets from the power grid. Induced pipeline currents intensify. Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low earth orbit satellites, and tracking and orientation problems may occur. Navigation - Satellite navigation (GPS) degraded or inoperable for hours. Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation sporadic or blacked out. Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Alabama and northern California.

[swpc-bot--unoffical]

Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 95 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Apr, 07 Apr, 08 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 589 km/s at 05/1801Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 05/0206Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 05/0150Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2350 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (06 Apr) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (07 Apr, 08 Apr). III. Event probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr Class M 60/60/55 Class X 15/10/10 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Apr 184 Predicted 06 Apr-08 Apr 180/175/165 90 Day Mean 05 Apr 178 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr 019/033 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr 032/044 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 017/004-010/004-011/004 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/30/30 Minor Storm 20/15/15 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 50/45/45

[swpc-bot--unoffical]

Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2025 Jan 01 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at moderate levels due to M-class flaring from Regions 3936 (N13W78, Ekc/beta-delta) and 3938 (N19W33, Cai/beta-gamma). The largest was an M2.9 flare at 31/2250 UTC from Region 3938. Slight decay was observed in Region 3938 and in the trailing spots of Region 3936. Growth was observed in Region 3944 (S14E26, Dai/beta) and in newly numbered Region 3945 (S10E67, Eai/beta). Other activity included a CME observed off the SW limb at 01/0224 UTC likely associated with a filament liftoff at 01/0020 UTC near Region 3939 (S17W13, Cai/beta). Preliminary analysis indicated potential glancing influences around midday on 03 Jan. .Forecast... M-class flares are expected (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a slight chance for isolated X-class flares (R3/Strong) through 02 Jan, primarily due to the flare potential of Region 3936. M-class flares are likely, with a slight chance for X-class flares on 03 Jan as Region 3936 rotates further beyond the NW limb. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... There is a chance for the greater than 2 MeV electron flux to reach high levels on 01-03 Jan due to CME influence. A slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm event will persist through 03 Jan given the current total disk potential. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... A shock arrival was observed in solar wind parameters at 31/1555 UTC. Total field increased to around 20 nT, Bz deflected southward to -18 nT at 31/1859 UTC briefly, and solar wind speed increased to around 450 km/s. Total field slowly diminished to 5 nT at 01/0130 UTC before increasing once again to 14-26 nT. The Bz component reached a maximum of -23 nT at 01/1020 UTC. Solar wind speed increased around the same time to between 490-570 km/s, possibly associated with the influence of a second CME. Phi angle was mostly positive until 01/0437 UTC when it switched into a negative sector. .Forecast... Enhancements in solar wind parameters are expected to continue through 01 Jan as CME activity persists. A slow return to nominal levels is likely on 02 Jan. By midday on 03 Jan, a potential glancing blow from the 01 Jan CME is likely to cause another enhancement. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached active to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels as CME activity progressed. .Forecast... Unsettled to G2-G3 (Moderate-Strong) storm levels are expected through the rest of the UTC day on 01 Jan as CME activity persists. Quiet to active levels are expected on 02 Jan as CME activity slowly wanes. By midday on 03 Jan, a glancing blow from the 01 Jan CME is likely to cause unsettled to active periods.