#Prior to the onset of the Covid-19 crisis

[ingredientsonline]

The Best Multivitamin Ingredients for Immune Protection and Good Health

[camaradarulitos]

Domestic violence against women surged by 23% during Spain’s first lockdown at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in March 2020, according to a new study using data from the country.

The increase was associated twice as much with increasing economic stress than with lockdown-related stress, economists found through a survey of more than 13,000 Spanish women. And while sexual and psychological violence ticked up significantly, physical violence did not, according to the researchers. 

“During extreme situations like a pandemic, domestic violence might increase because of the economic crisis, but also because of the lockdown,” said Esther Arenas-Arroyo, an economist at the Vienna University of Economics and Business in Austria and lead author of the paper, which will be published in the February 2021 issue of the Journal of Public Economics. 

Arenas-Arroyo, who conducted the study alongside Daniel Fernandez-Kranz and Natalia Nollenberger of the IE Business School in Madrid, said that the results do not necessarily show a causal relationship between economic or lockdown-related stress and intimate partner violence. However, the economists did strengthen their results through a series of robustness tests. 

“Our research is not unique to Spain,” said Arenas-Arroyo. “We find similar situations in other countries. In the U.S., domestic violence is really, really high.” 

But while the surge in domestic violence is not unique to a single country, Spain was the ideal place to examine the impact of the coronavirus on domestic violence because its lockdown was earlier and stricter than those in other countries, said Arenas-Arroyo. 

Spain, which implemented a lockdown on March 14, was the second European nation to do so after Italy, and enforced stricter rules than France or Britain ever did. Spaniards were barred from so much as walking outside for exercise, and just one member of each household was allowed to go to the grocery store.

“Spain was the perfect scenario to study this issue,” Arenas-Arroyo said. “You were locked at home with the whole family until the end of May. It was really, really, really strict and completely unexpected.” 

As countries around the world implemented lockdowns in March and April, Arenas-Arroyo said that she read news articles that reported a surge in domestic violence by citing the number of emergency calls.

For example, the New York Times reported on April 6 that, "Domestic abuse is acting like an opportunistic infection, flourishing in the conditions created by the pandemic,” citing in part an 18% increase in calls to a domestic violence emergency line in Spain. 

“I saw everyone [in the press] was getting crazy with these domestic violence calls,” said Arenas-Arroyo. “These don’t tell you anything about the real level of violence.”

Domestic violence calls to police are poor indicators of domestic violence, said Arenas-Arroyo, because many cases go unreported entirely. In addition, many Spaniards call the domestic violence line to ask questions about child custody issues and other problems that do not necessarily indicate abuse, she added. 

Frustrated with the lack of reliable data, the researchers turned to Facebook, where they constructed a series of questions about “women during the pandemic.” 

“You don’t ask women, ‘Do you suffer from domestic violence,’” Arenas-Arroyo said. Instead, the researchers asked a series of questions designed to indicate intimate partner violence in a technical way.

The questions were based on a 2019 national survey of violence against women in Spain, allowing the researchers to compare the more than 13,000 responses they received to an even-larger pre-pandemic dataset. 

In addition to asking questions that could indicate intimate partner violence, the researchers also posed a series of questions designed to indicate economic stress. For example, they inquired about women’s employment status, the employment status of their partners, if they were worried about losing or finding a job or if they were temporarily suspended from work. They also asked whether the women and their romantic partners lived together. 

The breadth of this data allowed the researchers to show that the increase in abuse was associated twice as much with increasing economic stress as lockdown-related stress. 

Arenas-Arroyo, who said that her findings are “not unique to Spain,” added that economic devastation may remain once the pandemic is gone, possibly causing higher levels of domestic abuse for longer. This underscores the importance of social safety net programs, she said. 

The research is consistent with prior work showing an association between rising domestic violence and the 2008-2009 Great Recession. 

The researchers completed the paper quite quickly in comparison to other academic work. They came up with the research idea in March and conducted the Facebook surveys in May and June. After a series of revisions, the peer-reviewed paper was released online in December. 

“It was the fastest paper I’ve ever written,” said Arenas-Arroyo. 

An earlier version of the paper was titled “Can’t Leave You Now! Intimate Partner Violence under Forced Coexistence and Economic Uncertainty.” But for the final published version, the title was changed to the more clinical “Intimate partner violence under forced cohabitation and economic stress: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic.” 

[fedgovwhistleblower]

Global Alert: Hydrogen Peroxide, Humidifier and Water mixed 50 Percent used indoors will "Kill Covid 19". Fact that will save your "Life, Family and Friends". US President's, Vice and Congressman attack my integrity for attempting to save lives globally. Unbelievable, Honorable Discharged US Army Sgt not afraid to "Stand and Tell Truth's". Oath to "GOD" matters.

Hydrogen peroxide nebulizer are humidifier to treat Covid-19 infection The following is from Thomas Levy, M.D, J.D., a board certified cardiolosit and a prolific medical writer of 13 books and a international speaker.  Thomas is a good friend of mine and I trust him.  Dr. Frank Shallenberger is also an internationally well known doctor whom I trust as well.  Although I have not personally tested this, I will recommend to you just in case you need it.  This method makes scientific sense and is safe, most definitely worth trying, especially now at this global covid-19 crisis. -Richard Cheng, M.D., Ph.D.An At-Home Treatment That Can Cure Any Virus, Including CoronavirusOriginally Conceptualized, circa 1990, by Charles Farr, MD Subsequently Researched and Prescribed by Frank Shallenberger, MD Current Protocol Created by Thomas Levy, MD, JDAlthough COVID-19, aka coronavirus, is deadly in some select cases, and it can spread rapidly, there is a simple, very inexpensive, and highly effective treatment that can treat and rapidly resolve coronavirus and virtually any other respiratory virus. While different individuals can be expected to have variable degrees of positive response, this intervention can be anticipated to eliminate eventual fatal disease outcomes in all but the most advanced cases.

As I hope you will eventually experience, the treatment works for all acute viral infections, and especially well for flu viruses of any variety. In fact, although we are constantly conditioned to not believe in anything “too good to be true,” you will never have to worry about getting a cold or the flu again because you can cure it on your own.The key ingredient in this treatment is common household 3% hydrogen peroxide, and this is the same substance that can be purchased in a 32-ounce plastic bottle at Walmart, for 88 cents, or at Walgreens for under a $1.00. Perhaps you have never heard of hydrogen peroxide therapy, but since the treatment was first championed by Dr. Charles Farr in about 1990, thousands of doctors have used this therapy for decades to conquer infections in many thousands of patients throughout the world.

How and Why Hydrogen Peroxide WorksBecause hydrogen peroxide consists of a water molecule (H2O) with an extra oxygen atom (H2O2), it is this extra oxygen atom that makes it so deadly for viruses. In order to comprehend why H2O2 therapy works so well, you must first understand that viral infections are eradicated from the body not by killing the virus itself, but rather by killing the cells that produce them.Technically, viruses are not alive, and so it is not possible to kill them. But some agents can physically break down the viral structure and render them inactive. Viruses are actually pieces of genetic code that, in and of themselves, can neither survive nor reproduce. Therefore, in order to replicate, viruses need to infect cells, which means that in the interior of cell, a virus uses the cell’s own DNA and RNA in order to effectively reproduce. Essentially, therefore, the virus controls an infected cell and uses the cell to manufacture new viruses. Then, the new virus can exit the cell and proceed to infect other cells. As a result, the way to control any viral infection is not to kill the virus; rather, the infected cells that have been turned into viral factories must be killed.

This is the role of the extra oxygen atom in hydrogen peroxide.Under normal circumstances with a healthy immune system, one’s immune cells produce their own hydrogen peroxide to kill the infected cells that propagate viruses. When one’s immune cells are overwhelmed, such as the case with COVID-19, hydrogen peroxide therapy merely assists the immune cells in doing the job for which they were originally created.One Disadvantage of Dr. Farr’s Original H2O2 TherapyFrom a patient and consumer perspective, the single main drawback to Dr. Farr’s original therapy is/was that it is primarily an intravenous (IV) therapy. Under most circumstances, this means that you must either administer the IV needle yourself or depend upon another person to assist you. Unfortunately, this is beyond the logistical (and perhaps financial) capacity of most people, and it may be one reason why the original hydrogen peroxide therapy is not more widespread.

Nevertheless, it should be realized that the proper intravenous application of hydrogen peroxide exerts a powerful anti-viral and general anti-pathogen effect.Dr. Shallenberger’s Ingenious Use of a NebulizerThe great news is that there is a safe and simple way to avoid doctors and IV needles. This method developed by Dr. Frank Shallenberger is almost as effective as IV, can be performed at home, and is much less costly than IV.The treatment is known as nebulized hydrogen peroxide, and Dr. Shallenberger began using the technique some years ago when he had a patient who was taking asthma medication that her doctor had been administering in a nebulizer.

For those who are unfamiliar, a nebulizer is a device that is able to convert a liquid into tiny, microscopic bubbles. As a result, these extremely small bubbles, which appear as smoke escaping from the nebulizer, can be inhaled into the deepest regions of the lungs without any discomfort or irritation. Such a device has long been utilized for asthmatics to get medication to open their lungs, but Shallenberger further noticed that nebulizers have a systemic effect, which is delivery far beyond the lungs only. According to one of Dr. Shallenberger’s patients, the inhalation of her prescribed drug in the nebulizer was “unbelievably strong,” and “affected her entire body.”What Was Taking PlaceIt turns out that the tiny bubbles were not only providing medication to the patient’s lungs, but the drug was being delivered to her entire body through her lungs.

Based on Dr. Farr’s prior research, Shallenberger reasoned that perhaps H2O2 could be delivered to the entire body with a nebulizer. Dr. Shallenberger tried the nebulizer delivery system on himself, and he was delighted to discover that the treatment was extremely easy to administer, very comfortable like breathing extremely pure air, and the treatment was in no way irritating. Shallenberger’s first actually ill test subject was his wife who had developed the initial symptoms of flu. She immediately began 10-minute treatments every waking hour, and within 72 hours, (three days), the flu was fully cured. Shallenberger was predictably amazed in that even IV hydrogen peroxide cannot resolve flu in much less time.

Since Mrs. Shallenberger’s rapid recovery, Dr. Shallenberger has treated hundreds of cases of colds, flus, sinusitis, and bronchitis all with the same results. Indeed, Shallenberger has discovered that nebulizer treatments actually have an advantage over the IV therapy. Not only is the hydrogen peroxide disseminated into the entire body through the lungs, it is also going directly to the areas of the body that are most affected by viruses: the sinuses, throat, bronchial tract, and lungs. This is especially important since colds and flu viruses replicate to very high titers in these areas, serving to supply a continuous feed of virus to the rest of the body.

Effective hydrogen peroxide nebulization quite literally, “chops the head off of the snake,” and the virus present elsewhere in the body can then readily be mopped up when the new virus influx has been terminated.It should be kept in mind that hydrogen peroxide kills all pathogens very readily upon contact in an open wound. It should, therefore, be understandable why putting a fine mist of hydrogen peroxide in all the areas of maximal viral replication promptly puts the body on a pathway to rapid healing. Dr. Levy’s Simple, Inexpensive, and Extremely Effective H2O2 ProtocolEarly Onset and Treatment of VirusRegular off-the shelf 3% hydrogen peroxide can be utilized. Preparations of greater pharmacological purity can be obtained if desired.For most adults, the 3% concentration can be utilized in the nebulization chamber undiluted. This optimizes the degree and rapidity of anti-viral and anti-pathogen effect.When a runny nose or slightly sore throat is already present, it is recommended that 10-to 15-minute nebulization sessions be undertaken roughly four times daily or until a symptomatic relief is realized.

Many individuals report significant improvement only a few hours after the first one or two treatments. But it would be advisable to persist in these treatments several times daily for at least 24 to 48 hours after you feel everything is completely normal in your sinuses, nose, and throat.For some, the 3% concentration results in too much stinging/burning in the nose. Such individuals can dilute with water until they find their highest tolerable concentration. Nearly everybody can tolerate a 50/50 combination of the 3% hydrogen peroxide and water. However, still lower concentrations can be utilized with clearly beneficial effect.Prevention/MaintenanceAs it is a completely non-toxic therapy, nebulization can be administered as often as desired.

If done on a daily basis at least once, a very positive impact on bowel and gut function will often be realized as killing the chronic pathogen colonization present in most noses and throats stops the 24/7 swallowing of these pathogens and their associated toxins.If daily prevention is not a practical option, the effectiveness of this treatment is optimized when somebody sneezes in your face or you finally get off of the plane after a trans-Atlantic flight. Don’t wait for initial symptoms. Just nebulize at your first opportunity.

Final Note: This fact and protocol sheet does not contain a copyright, and a patent has not been applied for. Therefore, I encourage the reader to disseminate the contents far and wide to as many people as possible. Because you now have a simple, inexpensive, and effective way to conquer virtually all viral infections, you do not have to live in fear of COVID-19 or any other pandemic. "Please share as a Public Safety Alert" step 1. mix water and hydrogen peroxide 50/50 percent step 2. Pour mixture into a humidifier step 3. Turn humidifier on and breath in mist being released in any room in your home. Try to do this every day, be well. Hope this helps everyone, friend always. mlh.

Yours in good health,Thomas E. Levy, MD, JD www.PeakEnergy.com March 18, 2020

[suavetrance]

Thoughts on COVID-19

In the wake of the worlds condition, it’s easy to be overwhelmed by the information overload that has been circulating our media outlets regarding this pandemic. From misleading narratives, rhetoric and propaganda that is often fed into media coverage concerning COVID-19 pandemic, many conspiracies drawn from opinions, value judgment and campaigning tend to appeal to our understanding of a crisis because they often lend to themselves to the outcomes of unwarranted panicking. In any sense where we review the quantity of information about the virus relative to the quality provided, it can be shown currently that the distribution is skewed towards an “infodemic” of disproportionate volumes of ill-conceived media coverage lacking credibility; often disseminated by prominent celebrities, influencers, experts and politicians that the public relies upon to provide guidance and awareness in times of crisis and confusion. Consequently, a major issue in our global bid to understand and overcome this pandemic is how the increasing degree of rumor-mongering and spread of conspiracies amplifies the efforts required to control the disease and mitigate its impact. As uncertainty over the potential impact of COVID-19 pandemic continues to escalate, the spread of false or misleading information without knowledge and guided intent continues to diminish public confidence; spreading unnecessary panic and confusion, and driving division, when solidarity and collaboration are key to saving lives and ending the health crisis. At this point, the origin, nature and severity of COVID-19 has brought global concern to disturbing state of public healthcare systems and how many establishments are less prepared for mitigating the impact of health crises. For example, the destructive outcome of a natural disaster such as Hurricane Katrina could be attributed to the oversight of developers and engineers that failed to take head of the on-going concerns many pundits had shared over the lack of adequate anti-flood support structures in an area that frequently experienced floods. When Hurricane Katrina occurred, the result of downplaying an impending crisis affected over 15 million people with an estimated cost of over $250 billion USD in damage, death and economic loss. Prior to the recent outbreak of COVID-19, several global health crises have occurred within recent years i.e. Ebola, MERS and SARS. The SARS epidemic of 2002 made global impact as a more severe disease that could be grouped similiarly to the family of viruses as COVID-19, however, existing measures to contain its infectious outbreak were largely successful due to nature of the virus as less transmittable. In the alarming case of COVID-19, the uncontrollable spread of this virus presents a unique dilemma; the exponential rise of infection levels supersedes any existing medical-response approach towards containing the outbreak. From the onset, fatality rates appeared relatively low, authorities overlooked this crisis until critical mass was reached; a stage in the outbreak where healthcare systems where destabilized and incapacitated by the sheer level of infection. Due to a lack of urgency, many countries have failed to mobilize a response to the pandemic that adequately matched the severity of its spread. As a result, in many countries, healthcare measures continue to underwhelm the severity of the outbreak in times where this pandemic requires an aggressive approach. As the impact of the outbreak continues to escalate, it is evident that part of the problem is that the degree of helplessness continues to fester as the duration of containment remains unresolved. Within a short period of time, CO-VID 19 has spread across continents, sweeping the world in panic. In low to middle income countries such as Italy, the pandemic remained unchecked as bureaucratic decision-making and inadequate health facilities were unable to anticipate the severity of the impending crisis. The devastation of this outbreaks equally cascades to the economic toll that production slowdowns, market collapse and travel bans have caused to strongholds such as China. It is expected that if the state of global economic standstill persists without any accelerated and aggressive containment measures being implemented, it will exacerbate its implications on short-term economic activities i.e. falling asset prices, liquidity stress and temporary commodity shortages. The COVID-19 pandemic represents a global concern for many who are still unaware and misinformed about the severity of the disease, level of infected population and its impact on the healthcare systems. As media coverage continues to strengthen, the effect of misinformation drawn from politicized narratives, falsehoods and exaggerated claims continue to stir confusion and panic within our societies. In such a time of uncertainty, polarizing precautionary views on public-health information remain unchecked and encourage pre-existing biases and prejudices that are often divisive and jeopardize opportunity to resolve the crisis collectively. In this current situation, there is need to find more sensible and less detrimental containment measures as healthcare systems look into their treatment options, screening procedures and upgrade their facilities for pandemic response. As much as social distancing and lockdowns have significantly reduced the infection levels, the tolerance of society to remain in standstill is limited. It also serves as a call for society to exercise far greater discretion in the consumption of information available.

[reportwire]

Pro-gun lawmakers want to arm teachers, but there’s little evidence these programs work

Pro-gun lawmakers want to arm teachers, but there’s little evidence these programs work

In 2020, while the US grappled with the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, the country was experiencing another crisis: gun violence topped the lead causes of death among young Americans. Since the year prior, the rate of firearms-related deaths among American youths under 20 years old increased by 29.5 percent, which was twice as high as the relative increase of gun deaths among the US general…

[mutaike]

Diaz: Is your business online?

Diaz: Is your business online?

The Covid-19 pandemic continues to revolutionize not just individual lives but also traditional facets of the society at large. Prior to the onset of the global health crisis, commerce was one such facets with brick and mortar establishments dominating the novel digital enterprise. Under the cloud of restrictions ranging from curfews, restricted movements and total lockdowns, it is the latter…

[lizseyi]

Luxury Fashion Brands ‘Generating Particularly High Shareholder Returns’ As Global Turbulence Continues

The considerable stresses and strains of the last few years – geopolitical, social, and economic – have certainly created circumstances in which many shoppers yearn for the escapism promised by retail therapy. 

Intriguingly, however, companies across the apparel, fashion, and luxury (AF&L) sector have often fared quite differently to each other in recent times, with the specific segment of the market in which a given brand operates frequently having a profound effect on its performance. 

Such a conclusion arose from research recently carried out by McKinsey. But what lessons can be learned from this for firms in the luxury or fashion sectors that are presently working alongside a UK creative agency to help power their growth? 

Evidence of luxury, premium, and sportswear brands continuing to excel 

When, in 2020, McKinsey looked at the total shareholder return (TSR) in the AF&L industry, it was clear that within this sector, the premium and luxury segments were significant outperformers. This was a trend that continued for the entirety of the pandemic. 

Although the global management consulting firm said the luxury segment had been “the longest-standing winner within the industry, a recent surge in sportswear has gained momentum as a preferred choice among premium customers.” 

McKinsey observed that the past decade had been one of “strong performance” for the AF&L industry, with 70% of the biggest AF&L companies in the world delivering returns upward of 10% since 2016. McKinsey added that, at the time of its analysis at the end of 2021, the global apparel market’s fortunes compared well to most other sectors, including the likes of technology and retail. 

The organisation noted that sportswear brands and retailers had seen upward of 20.3% returns from 2019 to 2021, compared to the 4.5% that traditional apparel players achieved during the same timeframe. Such growth has been linked to significant numbers of customers having embraced a “work from home” wardrobe back when the coronavirus crisis took hold, amid a heightened emphasis on personal health and wellness. 

As for luxury and premium brands, McKinsey said they had been dramatically surpassing the performance of much of the rest of the global apparel market since prior to the COVID-19 crisis. The company added that this trend had accelerated with the onset of the pandemic itself, the luxury and premium segments providing shareholder returns of 33.2% and 18%, respectively. This compared to the 8.9% seen in value segments, and 6.2% for mass segments. 

The value segment has been battered and bruised, as the luxury sector has thrived 

The above is in contrast to the situation before the coronavirus outbreak, when the value segment was the highlight of the industry, shareholder returns then hitting 21.1%. 

During the early stages of the pandemic, however, customers were largely forced to switch to online shopping, and many of the best-known value brands still lacked robust ecommerce platforms that would enable them to cater to such fast-changing demands. 

Meanwhile, McKinsey attributed the luxury sector’s strong showing at this time to a variety of factors, including – but not restricted to – the widespread lockdowns leading many customers to spend less on travel, and more on high-end goods. 

According to McKinsey, “in the post-pandemic world, it will be increasingly important for AF&L players to continue to focus on what is working for both customers and the global apparel market, but players should also look ahead and consider how things will evolve over time.”

The article continued: “For businesses already heavily indexed in the luxury category, the priority will be listening to nuanced changes in consumer demand and allocating investments to burgeoning growth opportunities and product innovation. For those seeking new growth strategies, category exploration and cost control might be great options.” 

Would you like to position your own brand strongly to take advantage of the opportunities for growth that will define the months and years ahead? 

If so, you may wish to think seriously about making Skywire London your choice of leading UK creative agency. Please enquire today to learn more about how our British-based, but globally oriented service could help improve your high-end or lifestyle brand’s outlook. 

[orbemnews]

How has the COVID-19 pandemic impacted claims management? Insurers are challenged with balancing cost efficiencies and meeting evolving customer expectations. They’re having to walk the fine line between automation and expertise in their interaction with customers, in their risk selection and underwriting processes, and in their claims management practices. And at the same time, they’re under pressure to implement corporate social responsibility (CSR) initiatives, and to engage with communities in a more holistic manner. A lot of these trends were around prior to COVID-19, but many have been exacerbated by the pandemic-driven shift towards a digital economy. In the claims management space, for example, there is now an “exponential reliance on technology,” according to Eric Malterre, chief client officer – International at Sedgwick, a global claims management company. Read next: How has COVID-19 impacted claims? Speaking at RIMS Live 2021, Malterre said: “The use of remote technology such as robots, drones, and digital tools, in replacement of field visits has grown substantially, and this is a future that is here to stay. Indeed, COVID-19 has accelerated that change, which was starting to arrive anyway, and somehow this is a positive impact of that crisis.” The pandemic has accelerated a shift in consumption patterns, according to Malterre, in which people expect easier access and more tailored service from their insurance providers, both at the onset of their insurance journey and on the back-end should they experience a claim. As a result, there has been an acceleration of the adoption of automation in the claims management process, to simplify and improve the customer experience and to reduce costs. Malterre commented: “We see a better usage of data, and of behavioral science, combined with the application of skill sets and technical knowledge to manage those claims.” Unfortunately, the COVID-19 pandemic has done nothing for the insurance industry’s public reputation. As Malterre pointed out, global uncertainty around the settlement of business interruption claims has further “damaged the reputation of the industry” in the eyes of the public. Read more: Sedgwick’s Drive to Thrive 2021 examines major industry trends “We are at a pivotal moment here, all of us,” he said. “This is an opportunity to change that perception. As claims managers, we see ourselves in a unique position to restore that trust between the client and insurance companies as a bridge. “We also believe that the industry has a social role to play, and somehow, the current situation we’re in creates an opportunity to address it. It’s an opportunity, as a profession, to demonstrate our ability to go beyond our own technicality, which could make us misunderstood and somehow undervalued. Clearly, COVID-19, like other pandemics to come, or global nat cat events for instance, should remind us that we need to work more collaboratively within the industry and beyond, exploring public-private partnerships, for instance, to build capacity and an ability to service risks of that magnitude.” Source link Orbem News #claims #Covid19 #Impacted #management #Pandemic

[perfectirishgifts]

Will A COVID-19 Vaccine Inoculate FinTech Startups Or Lead To Their Demise?

New Post has been published on https://perfectirishgifts.com/will-a-covid-19-vaccine-inoculate-fintech-startups-or-lead-to-their-demise/

Will A COVID-19 Vaccine Inoculate FinTech Startups Or Lead To Their Demise?

Despite the global pandemic, substantial venture capital investments fueled a massive wave of challenger bank startups in 2020. Challenger banks, which are digital banking startups, have gained traction in the last few years by offering consumers a digital banking experience through mobile apps, APIs, software integrations, and much more. Although it may seem counterintuitive given the economic uncertainty, 2020 was a banner year for such startup businesses. The big question now is whether they will continue to thrive.

Fintech electronic banking mobile network technology

During the early stages of the pandemic, startup doom and gloom captured headlines. Uncertainty drove startups into survival mode—many laid off employees, terminated leases and prepared to cut as many of their costs as possible. Yet, despite the gloomy predictions, the worst never came. In fact, the opposite seems to have happened, at least for FinTech startups. 

Despite the raging pandemic, FinTech startups are raising more funds than ever before at very high valuations, and even getting overwhelmed with new funding offers from investors that are fighting each other to give the startups money.  For example, Robinhood, the stock trading app, pulled in $1.25 billion in 2020, reaching an $11.7 billion valuation. Likewise, in 2020, neobanks such as Chime, Varo, MoneyLion and others gained millions of new users and massive amounts of money in funding, both of which highly appeal to investors. In the third quarter of 2020, startups raised $36.5 billion in funding, a 30 percent increase from the prior year.

The FinTech startup investing rush is powered by more than a rising demand for digital services. It is also fueled by low interest rates, which are driving investors into ever-riskier assets as they seek higher returns, as is apparent from Bitcoin’s recent new peak. Moreover, the booming stock market positively impacts startups’ IPOs, including Fintech IPOs. Finally, big tech acquisitions continue to motivate investors seeking healthy returns to focus on smaller tech companies.

Investing in FinTech during the pandemic has paid off. Most FinTech companies have prospered not only despite the pandemic, but because of the pandemic. 

A man in a face mask using smartphone joyfully while shopping.

There are several logical reasons for this seemingly counterintuitive phenomenon. First, the shelter in place mandates forced both the markets and consumers to adopt new technologies within several months, when such adoption normally takes many years. Second, with traditional banks’ branches being closed, and people encouraged to stay at home, FinTech services became more than a convenience, they became a necessity for banking needs. Third, as in any time of economic uncertainty, consumers and business became more cost-conscious. FinTech startups were able to leverage their technological innovations to offer their users cheaper services with improved, tailor-made, customer experiences. Fourth, the pandemic had a significantly greater impact on the operations of brick-and-mortar banks than it did on their digital rivals. That meant that traditional banks—who typically move more slowly than startups even in a non-pandemic environment—were at an even bigger disadvantage than usual in terms of turn-around time. In a rapidly-developing global pandemic, consumers and small business sought urgent help and immediate services.  Thus, it was only natural for them to turn to FinTech startups to process loans, payments, transactions and even data when their regular banks told them to wait in line.  Even the Federal government eventually relied on FinTech companies to join the banks in helping to quickly distribute some CARES Act PPP funds to businesses in need. Finally, as systemic racism was front of mind for almost everyone in the United States in the wake of the George Floyd tragedy, FinTech companies proved themselves to be faster (and better) at lending to minorities than traditional banks.

Inclusion And Multi Colored Pawns

But what will happen after the pandemic ends? Can the market support so many FinTech startups?

In answering this question, we must first be reminded that FinTech startups began to rise well before the onset of the 2020 pandemic. They gained traction in the years following the 2008 financial crisis (and continue to gain traction) by focusing on, and serving the needs of, specific niche clientele. For instance, a startup named Daylight focuses on LGBTQ customers, and another named Step focuses on teens. FinTech startups enhance financial inclusion, through catering to less-serviced groups like immigrants, gig workers, or college students, and through helping bring unbanked and underbanked populations under the financial services umbrella.  As a result, they are likely here to stay, particularly in a Biden administration where financial inclusion is a priority, as it should be. 

FinTech startups also gained traction on traditional banks through their focus on AI and the automation of financial services. Not being subject to all the traditional banking regulations, and using advanced technology tools, FinTech startups offered customers various automated services including online investing, early access to wages, tracking budget apps, and even automated credit-building tools for low fees. Consumers are currently accustomed to those services and are unlikely to willingly part with services that they now take for granted.

But to survive, FinTech startups cannot rest on their laurels. They must continue to innovate because traditional banks have started adopting many of the technologies as well as the innovative spirit that characterizes FinTech startups. Some banks have launched their own digital banks, offer more custom-tailor services, and started reaching out to niche groups too.

Digital Piggy Bank

Moreover, technological competition might not be the only thing causing a bumpy ride for FinTech startups once the pandemic ends.  

First, although the pandemic did influence more consumers to use digital services and rely on FinTech apps, there is a growing gap between what customers believe they know about the startups’ methods of gathering and using consumers’ financial data and what actually happens. And a reckoning might soon be in order regarding how consumer financial data is collected and shared. As I have written about (see Show Me (the Data About) the Money!),  consumers want to use FinTech apps to get cheaper, faster, effective and custom-tailored services, but surveys show that they also want to keep their information private and secure, and to control how their data is accessed and used.

In October 2020, the CFPB announced that it is looking into regulating consumer financial data sharing under Section 1033 of the Dodd Frank Act.  With a new administration that is more open to regulatory requirements, it is clear that the regulatory landscape will change for FinTech startups, but how this will impact their liability exposure, operations, and even appeal in the eyes of investors, is yet to be seen.

Second, customers still probably trust Fintech startups less than they trust the incumbent banks. So although some FinTech startups will likely continue to be successful in providing an online replacement to community banks by targeting specific demographics with high value products, others are currently overvalued because they have only a temporary appeal to specific niche groups, and could find themselves in trouble if trust issues take hold of those groups.

Third, additional financial regulation might be coming to Fintech companies. Although the currently less strictly regulated operational framework of FinTech startups allows them to quickly put innovation into action, and also facilitates faster services enabling them to quickly process various types of transactions and data, this regulatory arbitrage can have consequences. For example, in the case of distributing the CARES Act PPP funds, for instance, PPP Scammers made FinTech companies their lenders of choice, taking advantage of how companies such as BlueVine, Kabbage, Square SQ and PayPal tried to move quickly and not limit their activity to their existing ecosystem.

The CARES Act PPP loans

Finally, tech giants such as Amazon AMZN , Google GOOG and Facebook can and will present competition to both traditional banks and FinTech startups. For now, we have yet to fully realize how powerful the tech giants will be as financial service providers, but with their omnipotent tech abilities, seemingly infinite funds, and scale of operations, they will be hard to beat.  

Google recently hinted about its plans to become a bigger financial service when several weeks ago it announced major advancements in functionality for its Google Pay GOOG digital wallet, and revealed information about its partnership expansion with banks and credit unions, which will start operating in 2021 under the name ‘Plex By Google Pay.’ This move reveals some of Google’s near-term interests in the financial services business, and is a good indicator of what we can expect from the tech giants.

Will the entry of BigTech into the space help FinTech startups’ continuance growth? Probably not. The tech giants’ size and business models reduce innovation as they create a chilling effect on funding of small startups. Why? Because investors are aware of the tech giants’ potential ability to outman, out-fund, and immediately compete with any new innovative player, and are wary of that. So, if and when the tech giants start seriously competing in the financial industry, FinTech startups will have a harder time raising those funds. But like the other FinTech companies, BigTech is likely to face additional regulatory scrutiny in years to come. And the recent lawsuits against Google and Facebook by the DOJ and the FTC in October and December 2020 indicate that regulators may not look kindly on further acquisitions or expansion of BigTech.

So where will FinTech startups be at the end of the pandemic? Probably larger, better funded, and more ubiquitous. But if FinTech is to continue its meteoric rise, it best prepare for a bumpy road ahead, as only the strong and adaptive will survive.

More from Fintech in Perfectirishgifts

[khalilhumam]

There are too many ways to lose unemployment compensation

New Post has been published on http://khalilhumam.com/there-are-too-many-ways-to-lose-unemployment-compensation/

There are too many ways to lose unemployment compensation

By Lauren Bauer, Wendy Edelberg, Stephanie Lu At the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, existing unemployment insurance (UI) programs were unable to meet the extraordinary demand from workers abruptly displaced from their jobs. Programs authorized by Congress extended and expanded access to UI. Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) expanded access to UI benefits for up to 39 weeks for those not eligible for regular UI (like the self-employed). Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) extended the number of weeks of benefits (by 13 weeks) that are available to regular UI recipients. Unemployment compensation programs support families who have lost employment, helping them to weather the economic crisis while promoting consumer spending more broadly. In the US, the pandemic is surging and the labor market remains weak. But come December 26, without Congressional action, the pandemic-related UI programs will end. This is not the only benefit cliff that unemployed workers face. Compounding challenges for displaced workers are the potential end (or “triggering off”) of Extended Benefits (EB). EB, which automatically extends the number of weeks of UI benefits when certain economic conditions are met, has already triggered off in 20 states and is in danger of triggering off soon in many more. States are less likely to take actions to keep EB in place because of cost: after December 31, the 100 percent federal funding of EB enacted in the CARES Act will expire, and the federal share will revert to 50 percent. Indeed, several states are set to sunset EB after December 31. Unless Congress and state governments act quickly, millions of unemployed people will be abruptly left with no income support and millions of others will face an imminent expiration of benefits. Extending our prior work, we look at a snapshot of UI claims data released on December 3 by the Department of Labor to determine the different ways in which workers would lose unemployment compensation in the coming weeks. We find that absent Congressional and state government action the situation will be dire at the end of this year:

approximately 9.5 million will lose unemployment compensation on December 26 due to PUA’s expiration;

approximately 500,000 will lose unemployment compensation on December 26 due to PEUC’s expiration because they live in a state where EB has triggered off;

approximately 870,000 will lose unemployment compensation once they exhaust regular UI benefits because they live in a state where EB has triggered off;

approximately 680,000 will lose unemployment compensation once they exhaust EB; and

approximately 2.2 million will be in danger of losing unemployment compensation once they exhaust regular benefits because they live in a state where EB is triggered on for now but is likely to trigger off within several weeks.

All told, at the end of December (based on a snapshot of claims data), approximately 10 million workers will lose unemployment compensation immediately on December 26 and about 3.8 million additional workers will be in danger of losing their benefits within weeks. Insofar as many of those unemployed people face such outcomes because EB has triggered off or is expected to trigger off soon, state governments can take action to prevent the loss of benefits by changing the economic measure that determines whether EB triggers off. In addition, extending PUA and PEUC would prevent millions from losing benefits and requires Congressional action.

The Insured Unemployment Rate and UI Eligibility

State governments have some latitude to extend EB.[i] UI participants may collect additional weeks of benefits through EB when the state’s 13-week insured unemployment rate (IUR; the share of people collecting UI benefits among the eligible population within a state) is above 5 percent and is at least 120 percent of the average in the prior two years. In addition to that mandatory trigger, states may adopt an optional trigger based on its IUR: EB can trigger on it those states where the IUR is above 6 percent without a lookback requirement. The second optional measure is based on the state-wide unemployment rate (the total unemployment rate or TUR); states that adopt this optional trigger allow EB to turn on when the TUR is above 6.5 percent and is at least 10 percent higher than either of the prior two years. Figure 1 is a data interactive that shows the 13-week average IURs for states (the mandatory EB trigger). The dotted line is at the 5 percent line (the mandatory EB trigger threshold). The interactive shows whether states have EB triggered on, including for those states that adopted the TUR trigger, as of November 29. In every state except for South Dakota, EB was triggered on for some part of 2020. In 30 states, Washington DC, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands, EB is still on. Click on a line or enter a state name into the search bar to highlight 2007-2020 13-week IUR rates by state. The color of the line for each state reflects whether and how EB is triggered as of November 29 according to the Department of Labor:

Red: EB is off in the state (20 states). For six of those states (Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Kentucky, Maine, and Tennessee), EB is off because the state only uses the mandatory IUR trigger but would instead be on if the state also adopted the TUR trigger.

Orange: EB is on by the TUR trigger and would be off by the IUR trigger (4 states). Under current plans, at least three of those states will trigger off on December 31 when 100 percent federal funding sunsets.

Yellow: EB is on by the IUR trigger with an IUR between 5 and 6.5 percent (12 states).

Green: EB is on by the IUR trigger with an IUR above 6.5 percent (14 states, Washington DC, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands).

States that have particularly elevated IURs in 2020 (green) also generally have higher IURs from 2007 to 2019. States that have lower IURs in 2020 (red) also generally have lower IURs. This reflects not only differential industrial and demographic mixes between states that make IURs higher, but also state policy regimes that make it more difficult to receive UI and stay on UI. That is, state policy can depress IURs deliberately and mechanically.

Counterintuitively, poor economic conditions in a state eventually depress IURs, leading to a triggering off of EB in states. An IUR is the share of those who are receiving regular UI divided by the number of people who are covered by the UI system. As one would expect, if a beneficiary gets a job and so stops receiving regular UI, the IUR falls. More surprisingly, when beneficiaries stay unemployed but transfer out of regular UI and into the EB system (or onto a different emergency extension such as PEUC), they are also no longer counted in the IUR calculation. As a result, an increase in long-term unemployment – a clear indication of a weak labor market – can result in a reduction in the IUR and make it more likely that EB triggers off.

Consequences of UI Expirations

As of December 3, 2020, Department of Labor data show that 20.7 million people are currently participating in or have recently filed an initial claim for one of four unemployment compensation programs:

9 million are participating in PUA as of the week ending November 14 and 600,000 have filed initial claims for PUA in the last two weeks of November. PUA is a new and temporary program that provides unemployment assistance to workers not eligible for UI (or whose benefits from regular UI and other programs lapse before 39 weeks).

2 million people are on regular UI and about 700,000 filed initial UI claims the week ending November 28.

6 million people are on PEUC, a new and temporary program which extends the number of weeks that a person on UI can receive benefits; and

700,000 people are on EB, the UI extension program-in-law that allows for additional weeks of benefits when economic conditions in a state are met and when UI and PEUC are exhausted.

For consistency with the official data, this analysis relies on Department of Labor data as reported in the weekly claims for December 3, both initial and continuing claims.[ii] Evidence suggests overreporting in those data, especially early in the pandemic. Due to delays in UI application processing, workers are often paid benefits retroactively, which can cause reporting issues; for example, if a worker only starts receiving benefits in their fifth week of unemployment, they are paid retroactively for the last four weeks and can show up in the Department of Labor’s data not as one person claiming five weeks of benefits, but as five separate claims. Such issues have been exacerbated by the logistical challenges stemming from standing up two new UI programs. Additionally, disinvestment in states’ UI computer systems have allowed cyberattacks to file fraudulent claims with state UI agencies. Those factors likely lead to overreporting in the number of unemployed people receiving UI benefits, particularly PUA. These reporting issues have lessened over time, as states worked through their backlog. While we employ the claims data as reported for this analysis, we concur with the GAO that the Department of Labor pursue reporting unique claims expeditiously. The unemployment compensation program that an unemployed person is participating in (or applied for) and the state in which an unemployed person lives determines whether she will lose benefits immediately on December 26 and whether she will be able to transfer onto EB immediately, eventually, or not at all. We do not take into account possible inflows into these programs nor exhaustions or exits from the programs between when the data were reported on December 3 and the December 26 sunset date. Figure 2 walks through these determinations for the population on UI as of the UI claims notice released on December 3. Based on this snapshot, approximately 10 million unemployed workers will lose benefits on December 26.

PUA expiration: 9,477,058 (the total number of people the Department of Labor reports are receiving or have recently filed for PUA) workers will lose unemployment compensation immediately when PUA expires.

PEUC expiration: 505,165 workers will lose unemployment compensation because of PEUC’s expiration and because they live in a state in which EB is triggered off.

There are 1.6 million unemployed workers who will lose unemployment compensation in the coming weeks because they will not be able to transfer onto EB or PUA when they exhaust their regular UI benefits or because they will exhaust their EB benefits.

Exhaust UI and EB trigger off: 871,537 will lose unemployment compensation when they exhaust UI benefits because they live in a state in which EB is triggered off.

Exhaust EB: 681,075 will lose unemployment compensation when they exhaust EB benefits. Some of those recipients would have been eligible for additional weeks of benefits through PUA.

Another 2.2 million unemployed workers are in danger of losing access to EB when they move off UI or are no longer eligible for PEUC come December 26.

On UI or PEUC in a state with EB TUR trigger on: 683,256 are on UI or PEUC in a state where EB is triggered on only because the state has adopted the TUR trigger. Note that at least three of those states currently have plans to revert to the IUR trigger and thus trigger off EB after December 31.

On UI or PEUC in a state with EB trigger on and IUR between 5 percent and 6.5 percent: 1,548,315 are on UI or PEUC in a state where EB is triggered on but the state has an IUR between 5 percent and 6.5 percent, close to the 5 percent threshold.

Finally, another 6.9 million unemployed workers are not imminently in danger of losing access to unemployment compensation because they live in a state in which the insured unemployment rate is currently above 6.5 percent. Among that group, 3.3 million will switch immediately to EB from PEUC on December 26 and 3.6 million will likely switch to EB if they exhaust UI before finding employment.[iii]

Conclusion

This winter, there are too many different ways for the unemployed to lose unemployment compensation. We predicted in August that EB triggers would lapse prematurely, dampening the stabilizing aspects of UI and denying additional weeks of benefits to those who have struggled to gain a toe-hold in a labor market still shaped by the pandemic. That prediction has started to come to pass. The confluence of expiring pandemic-related programs with EB triggers turning off well before the economy has recovered means that approximately 13.8 million unemployed workers, including the long-term unemployed, will lose sustaining unemployment compensation on December 26 or are in danger of losing compensation in the following weeks. Eliminating UI benefits for millions of unemployed workers will likely cut deep into household consumption, which makes up roughly 70 percent of U.S. GDP. Since August, UI benefits have typically been about 50 percent of a recipient’s previous wage, providing significant support but still requiring a substantial cut in household spending. Moreover, the drop in consumer spending from the lapse in benefits threatens to derail the fragile economic recovery. Eliminating unemployment compensation while the labor market is weak creates enormous economic pain for households and for the tenuous economic recovery. Moreover, because the labor market pain has not been borne equally across demographic groups, the lapsing of benefits would also not be equally felt. Employment among low-wage service workers has taken a disproportionately large hit in this crisis, and those jobs are disproportionately held by women and people of color. With those demographic group suffering greater unemployment, those groups will face greater pain from the lapse in benefits in coming weeks. There are other downstream consequences to EB triggering off that further weaken the safety net and make it more difficult for low-wage workers during economic downturns. When EB is triggered on in a state, states may apply to the US Department of Agriculture for a waiver for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) work requirements, which bind on able-bodied adults without dependents. During the Great Recession the UI-system-related work requirement waivers provided the highest degree of waiver coverage during the sluggish recovery. Because EB triggered on so quickly in 2020 and has started to trigger off, many states will not have SNAP work requirement waiver eligibility based on EB when the nationwide work requirement suspension ends. As described above, state governments have some latitude to extend EB as they have a choice among triggers that determine when EB turns off but are more likely to do so with substantial federal support. Four states are currently turned on by TUR that would be turned off if they had not adopted the optional trigger; six states (Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Kentucky, Maine, and Tennessee) would have EB triggered on now if they had adopted the TUR trigger. But at least three of the states currently turned on by TUR will trigger off on December 31 because of state laws that tie the optional trigger to 100 percent federal funding. Although opting out of a trigger that would keep EB in place lowers state government UI costs, which may be a high priority for states right now given budget crises, it leaves millions of unemployed workers in a dire financial situation now and affects some SNAP participants later. As federal policymakers consider additional fiscal support in response to the COVID pandemic, it is imperative that a robust unemployment compensation extension is a core component of any legislative package. The economy is still in a “big hole,” the economic recovery is weakening, and there are clear signs that the labor market has sustained structural damage. Allowing unemployment compensation to lapse – through the expiration of PUA, PEUC, and the 100% federal match of EB – threatens vulnerable workers and the fragile economic recovery.   Acknowledgments: The authors thank Elizabeth Pancotti, Kriston McIntosh, and Kristen Broady for fruitful conversations and helpful feedback as well as Jay Shambaugh and Jana Parsons for their work on earlier publications in this line of research. Becca Portman developed the data interactive, Lexi Contreras provided graphic design, and Jennifer Umanzor contributed research assistance.

Endnotes

[i] For additional details on EB triggers, please see Bauer, Edelberg, and Parsons (2020) and Chodorow-Reich and Coglianese (2019). [ii] We take as the snapshot both initial and continuing claims as reported in the December 3, 2020 notice. PUA initial claims reported here were filed during the week ending November 28 and the week ending November 21; PUA continued claims are for the week ending November 14. For the numbers reported here, UI initial claims were filed during the week ending November 28 and insured unemployment for the week ending November 21. PEUC claims and EB claims were filed during the week ending November 14. [iii] The analysis reported here looks only at the snapshot of claims reported on December 3. In their analysis, Elizabeth Pancotti and Andrew Stettner model out ongoing flows into and out of unemployment compensation programs to project the number of program participants on December 26 and find that more than 16 million workers will lose access to unemployment compensation by the end of 2020, through a combination of eligibility exhaustion and the benefit cliff. They also project out IURs and TURs to model where EB triggers will be on December 26 and December 31. While our estimates on the number of participants affected are converging as we get closer to these dates and claims data move toward their model, much of the daylight between our estimates reflect differences in approach.

[lizseyi]

Málaga Airport Sees The Spanish Mainland’s Strongest Recovery In International Traffic

If you have been wondering just how much of a ‘hit’ the Costa del Sol area of Spain is among overseas visitors at this point after the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, the short answer is… a big one! 

Indeed, according to a recent SUR in English report, tourism in the southern Spanish region is gradually edging its way back to pre-pandemic levels, to the extent that the number of foreign passengers arriving at Málaga Airport during the first four months of 2022 was 82% of the level seen prior to the coronavirus crisis.

In fact, the news outlet said that the airport recovered a greater amount of international traffic than any other in mainland Spain during the aforementioned period. 

This is all according to the Ministry of Industry, Commerce and Tourism, which released data indicating that only the Spanish islands have recovered international air traffic to a greater degree than Málaga. 

What else can be seen from the statistics? 

The SUR in English report stated that over 1.7 million people from foreign countries took a plane to the Costa del Sol in the period from January to April this year. This amounted to almost 10% of Spain’s total number of international travellers for those four months. 

To say that travel to Spain from overseas has ‘bounced back’ from the lows of the pandemic would be quite the understatement, with the Málaga regional newspaper reporting that international tourism had increased by a whopping 1,220%. 

As of April, the amount of international traffic that Málaga Airport was receiving was only 12 percentage points shy of what it managed prior to the COVID-19 outbreak. Furthermore, the government said that tourist numbers from all the main markets went up during the month. 

And which parts of the world are driving such impressive growth? SUR in English said that the Netherlands was the market showing the greatest signs of recovery, a mere 0.6% behind the levels it had previously recorded, followed by Ireland, with 0.7%. 

The United States and United Kingdom markets, though, showed evidence of having much further to go in their recovery, recording 19.4% and 16.6% by this measure. Still, the UK market in particular remains a hugely important one for the Costa del Sol. 

Travel around the Costa del Sol in the utmost convenience this summer – and beyond 

It’s great to see that amid the stresses and strains that Andalucia and other key tourist destinations have experienced since the onset of the coronavirus situation, there are indicators of a strong return to something approaching ‘normality’ for tourism in the region. 

Now could be as good a time as any, then, to book your visit to the Costa del Sol, for what might be the first time for you since the pandemic took hold. 

With our Málaga Airport transfers here at Simply Shuttles representing excellent value for money – largely on account of the professional, efficient, and fuss-free service we provide – they could be just the thing for whisking you around the region with ease, whether you are visiting for work or play. 

Simply call +34 951 279 117 now to place your booking! 

[georgecmatthews]

REITs: Clearing up some misconceptions

Prior to the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, real estate investment trusts (REITs) had been among the better performing asset classes over the longer term.1 In the wake of the pandemic, however, REITs have been dogged by market commentary and investor misconceptions that imply the asset class has become a challenged sector. We disagree.

REITs in a post-COVID world, in our view, can be separated into three categories: 1. property sectors with continued tailwinds, 2. sectors with short-term coronavirus impacts but strong recovery potential, and 3. sectors with longer-term uncertainties.  Active managers with the ability to balance exposure between structural growth and attractive value while avoiding the trouble spots may be well positioned to navigate the new market environment. Looking beyond the current turmoil to a period when the capital markets have stabilized, investors can likely expect structurally lower interest rates and slower economic growth. A low rate and slow growth environment has historically been favorable for commercial real estate and may prove to be so again.

Potentially attractive opportunities in commercial real estate. US REITs generated a 29% total return in 2019 and have been among the better performing asset classes over the last 15 years.2 (See Figure 1.) But since the pandemic hit and the world went into lockdown, market commentators have speculated about the longer-term impact of COVID-19 on commercial real estate. Their outlooks are often guarded and frequently paint all property types with the same broad brush. Not surprisingly, some investors have become more cautious on the asset class. It is certainly true that the historic collapse in the economy and concomitant spike in unemployment have been headwinds for real estate—just as they have been for most industries. In our view, however, this broad-brush approach to real estate is misplaced. We believe there are opportunities for potentially attractive returns combined with solid risk-adjusted returns in both US and global real estate today; just as there were in the wake of the global financial crisis, the dot-com bust and even the Gulf War recession 30 years ago.

Figure 1: Attractive total returns Real estate has outperformed traditional stocks and bonds

Segmenting the real estate market in a post-COVID world. There are more than a dozen distinct property types in the listed US real estate market and the global market.3 (See Chart 2.) Because various property types will be impacted by the coronavirus differently, we think it makes sense for investors to segment the market by growth opportunity as well as human density. The latter attempts to assess the longer-term impact of the coronavirus and the risk of persistent social distancing by property type. In a post-coronavirus world, we believe the real estate market can properly be segmented into three categories: 1. property sectors with continued tailwinds (often driven by technological change); 2. sectors with shorter-term impacts from COVID but with strong recovery potential (typically driven by persistent demographic trends); and 3. sectors with longer-term uncertainties. The key point is simple; commercial real estate is comprised of various property types driven by different growth dynamics facing different impacts from COVID. Some of the highest growth property sectors account for over 40% of the US listed real estate market and face little to no impact from COVID. In contrast, some of the most challenged sectors comprise just 5% of the market. 

Figure 2: US real estate property type exposures As of May 31, 2020

Sectors with continued tailwinds. Three property sectors below account for 44% of the listed US real estate market and enjoyed structural tailwinds before the pandemic because of their locus at the intersection of technology and real estate, meaning they will likely face limited effects from the coronavirus. In fact, demand for several of these property types may have even improved as a result of the pandemic. 

Infrastructure (22% of US market): Infrastructure REITs, which include cell phone tower operators, small node providers and fiber players, had benefited from strong growth in mobile data usage before the pandemic. They are also meaningful beneficiaries of the wireless network upgrade to 5G and have even benefitted from the current work-from-home environment which has significantly increased the load on wireless networks. Since this sector has almost no human density, it is largely unaffected by the coronavirus. Unsurprisingly, these REITs have generated positive total returns year-to-date despite a challenging market environment.4

Data centers (11% of US market): Data centers REITs, which are basically high security computer warehouses, had also benefited from the consistent growth in data usage before the pandemic. These facilities are essential for the fast and efficient operation of the internet, and they are beneficiaries of growth in cloud computing, e-commerce and the work-from-home economy. Since they too have very limited human density, data centers have been largely unimpacted by the coronavirus. Not surprisingly, many data center REITs have generated positive total returns year-to-date as well.5

Industrial (11% of US market): Industrial REITs, which include gateway distribution centers, bulk warehouses, infill warehouses and more cyclical property types as well, have been significant beneficiaries of the 11-year expansion in the US economy as well as consistent growth in e-commerce. They have also benefitted from the advent of no-touch home delivery, serving as important components in the last mile of the distribution chain. The impact on this sector of the current recession, the slowdown in global trade and COVID will vary depending on property type. For example, a longer-term disruption in trade could cause a drawdown in warehouse inventories without the goods being replaced, a negative impact for certain businesses. On the other hand, the massive bulk warehouses that are primarily operated with robots have low human density and should face limited impact from the coronavirus. Once the economy starts to grow again, we would expect trade volumes to increase which should meaningfully benefit this sector.

Sectors with shorter-term impacts from COVID but strong recovery potential. Several property types could face shorter-term impacts from the pandemic but likely have strong recovery potential. These sectors are beneficiaries of demographically-driven growth trends. As the markets stabilize and those demographic trends continue, these property types should participate well in the recovery.

Residential (14% of US market): Residential REITs, which include apartments, single-family rentals, manufactured homes and student housing, have benefitted from a host of factors including structural undersupply, demographically-driven demand growth and relative affordability. Growth trends were positive before the pandemic, especially for higher quality assets in more attractive markets with limited exposure to new supply. We expect the impact of COVID on this sector to vary depending on the specific property type. For example, single family rental homes in the suburbs and manufactured housing have low human density and should be relatively unimpacted. In contrast, high rise apartments in dense urban areas where residents rely heavily on public transportation could be more significantly impacted.

While occupancy rates for apartments have declined marginally during the current recession, some of these headwinds are likely discounted into stock prices.  For example, apartments on average were trading at a 16% discount to net asset value (NAV) by the end of May.6 For reference, on a longer-term basis, US REITs have typically traded at a 2%-3% premium to NAV.7 Furthermore, key support for this sector comes from the fact that we all need a place to live, and rent is typically the first check people write

Healthcare, excluding senior living (~8% of US market): Healthcare REITs (excluding senior living) consist of hospitals, medical offices, skilled nursing and life science facilities. These property types have also benefitted from demographically-driven demand growth and the aging of the baby boomer cohort. However, future growth prospects for this sector and the expected impact from the coronavirus vary by property type. For example, life science and laboratory properties enjoyed solid demand prior to the pandemic, especially those facilities located near innovation hubs and major medical/research facilities. For certain tenants, the cost of relocating sophisticated medical and scientific equipment is extremely high, making those tenants sticky and highly valuable. Similarly, the demand for medical offices, especially near high-acuity hospitals, was solid before the pandemic and will likely remain so. Although certain of these property types have been negatively impacted by the coronavirus to varying degrees, they often house essential businesses such as doctors’ offices, testing/treatment facilities and research labs that have become critical in the current environment. On the other end of the spectrum, senior housing was already facing softening fundamentals before the pandemic. We believe it is even more challenged today, in part because it serves a demographic that is particularly susceptible to COVID. Accordingly, we would expect senior housing to lag in a real estate recovery. 

Lodging (2% of US market): Lodging REITs, which include hotels and resorts, were performing well before the pandemic. The US was in the 11th year of an economic expansion, the stock market was at an all-time high, and both consumers and businesses were spending on travel. But once the lockdown went into effect, occupancy rates for many hotels and resorts collapsed to zero. A defining characteristic of this sector is its short lease terms, often just one day. In addition, these property types can be impacted by COVID, especially facilities that cater to international travelers. We believe that some of these challenges are likely discounted into stock prices as the sector on average was trading at a 29% discount to NAV by the end of May.8 As the economy has started to reopen, occupancy rates have started to rebound, but the recovery has been uneven. Properties located within driving distance of major metropolitan areas seem to be rebounding the fastest so far.

Timber (2% of US market): Timber REITs own land that is used for the production and harvesting of timber. They generate revenue by selling raw timber and wood-based products. On the upside, demand for wood products tends to grow as the populations need for housing increases. In addition, these REITs do not own buildings, so they face minimal impact from the coronavirus.  However, timber REITs are cyclical and generate income based on market prices which are partly a function of demand. In this regard, approximately half of U.S. softwood lumber is used for homebuilding, so wood demand is highly correlated with the strength of the housing market. In the current recession, housing starts have fallen sharply. As the economy stabilizes and housing starts rebound, we expect demand for timber and wood products to rebound as well.

Sectors facing longer-term uncertainties. Finally, several property types faced challenges before the pandemic and continue to face uncertainties today. 

Retail ex essential services (5% of US market): Retail REITs (excluding essential services) consist of regional malls and shopping centers.  Before the pandemic, these property types faced a host of challenges. Unfortunately, they have been hit hard by COVID as most malls and shopping centers closed during the height of the pandemic. Rent collections for some landlords fell into the 45%-55% range during the three-month period ending in June.9 Looking more broadly, there are approximately 1,200 large malls in the U.S. Before the pandemic, approximately half or more of these malls were on the path to shutdown over the next decade. The start of the pandemic has likely accelerated that process, but by how much is unknown. Persistent social distancing will likely shift more discretionary retail purchases online, and the current recession could amplify the struggles of many large retail chains, sending more of them into bankruptcy. Current valuations seem to be reflecting at least some of these headwinds. By the end of May, regional malls on average were trading at a 52% discount to NAV while shopping centers were trading at a 35% discount.10 We would expect these property types to lag in an economic recovery. 

Office (7% of US market): Office REITs in our view represent a question mark in real estate today. Prior to the pandemic, demand for marquee properties in major economic centers and innovation hubs was solid. Employers would often compete for top-flight talent based on the location quality, and related amenities/services of their offices. At the same time, demand at the lower end of the market was softening. Because of the coronavirus and the risk of persistent social distancing, we believe it is unclear what the long-term demand will be for office space in terms of square foot per employee. Some companies have already announced that a portion of their workforce will be eligible to work from home on a permanent basis, thereby reducing the need for office space. In addition, the workplace trend over the last decade of greater employee densification on the office floorplan has likely come to an end. However, we believe there will be continued demand for marquee and other high-end office properties in a post-COVID world. In addition, employers will have to consider a variety of issues when employees return to the office, including social distancing requirements and spacing demands. Of course, it is possible that certain employers may need more square feet of office space per employee in a post-COVID environment. For all of these reasons, we believe the outlook for this sector is hazy. However, some of this uncertainty is likely discounted into stock prices as the sector on average was trading at a 23% discount to NAV by the end of May.11

Key takeaways. We believe that much of the recent market commentary regarding listed US and global real estate has been too pessimistic, painting different property types with the same broad brush and leaving investors with the impression that the asset class has become challenged. In our view, certain property sectors continue to benefit from structural tailwinds while others face short-term coronavirus effects but have strong recovery potential. At the same time, a small part of the listed real estate market faces longer-term uncertainties. Active managers with the ability to balance exposures between structural growth and attractive value while avoiding the trouble spots should be well positioned to navigate the new market environment. In our view, once the market turmoil subsides, US and global REITs that own high-value physical assets, have a stable tenant base along with historically stable and growing cash flows, and offer attractive yields could present a potentially attractive investment opportunity, just as they did in the wake of the global financial crisis.

Investors seeking information about Invesco Global Real Estate Income Fund can find additional information here.

Investors seeking information about Invesco Real Estate Fund can find additional information here.

Investors seeking information about Invesco Global Real Estate Fund can find additional information here.

Footnotes

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

1. Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of 5/31/2020. US REITS represented by the FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs Index; Global REITs represented by the FTSE EPRA Nareit Developed Index; US Equities represented by the S&P 500 Index; Global Equities represented by the MSCI World Index; US Bonds represented by the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Index; Global Bonds represented by the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index.

The FTSE EPRA/Nareit Developed Index is a free-float adjusted, market capitalization-weighted index designed to track the performance of listed real estate companies in developed countries worldwide. 

The Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index is a flagship measure of global investment grade debt from twenty-four local currency markets.

2. Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of 6/23/20

3.  The US real estate market is represented by the FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs Index and the global real estate market is represented by the FTSE EPRA Nareit Developed Index. See FTSE Russell Sector Indices Factsheet, 5/29/20.

4. Source: Bloomberg L.P., Total return YTD as of 6/30/2020 is 16.60%. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

5. Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of 6/23/20. Total return YTD as of 6/30/2020 is 19.18%. Past performance is not a guarantee

6. Source: Invesco Real Estate based on consensus estimates, 5/31/20.

7. Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of 6/23/20

8. Source: Invesco Real Estate based on consensus estimates, 5/31/20.

9. Source: Invesco Real Estate based on consensus estimates, 5/31/20.

10. Source: Invesco Real Estate based on consensus estimates, 5/31/20.

11. Source: Invesco Real Estate based on consensus estimates, 5/31/20.

Important Information

Blog Header Image: Alex Shutin / Unsplash

A risk-adjusted return is a calculation of the profit or potential profit from an investment that takes into account the degree of risk that must be accepted in order to achieve it. 

The Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index considered representative of the US investment-grade, fixed-rate bond market.

Global REITS are represented by FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Global Index is designed to track the performance of listed real estate companies and REITs in both developed and emerging markets

The FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs Index is an unmanaged index considered representative of U.S. REITs Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions, there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations. An investment cannot be made into an index.

In general, stock values fluctuate, sometimes widely, in response to activities specific to the company as well as general market, economic and political conditions.

 Investments in real estate related instruments may be affected by economic, legal, or environmental factors that affect property values, rents or occupancies of real estate. Real estate companies, including REITs or similar structures, tend to be small and mid-cap companies and their shares may be more volatile and less liquid.

REITs are subject to additional risks than general real estate investments. The value of a REIT can depend on the structure and cash flow generated by the REIT. REITs concentrated in a limited number or type of properties, investments or narrow geographic areas are subject to the risks affecting those properties or areas to a greater extent than less concentrated investments. REITs are subject to certain requirements under federal tax law and may have expenses, including advisory and administration expenses. As a result, Fund will incur its pro rata share of the underlying expenses.

Interest rate risk refers to the risk that bond prices generally fall as interest rates rise and vice versa.

An issuer may be unable to meet interest and/or principal payments, thereby causing its instruments to decrease in value and lowering the issuer’s credit rating.

The opinions expressed are those of the author, are based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. These opinions may differ from those of other Invesco investment professionals.

Invesco Distributors, Inc. is the US distributor for Invesco Ltd.’s retail products and collective trust funds, and is an indirect, wholly owned subsidiary of Invesco Ltd.

NA6946

from Expert Investment Views: Invesco Blog https://www.blog.invesco.us.com/reits-clearing-up-some-misconceptions/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=reits-clearing-up-some-misconceptions

[westletter]

Summer 2020

Dear Friends, It’s ironic.  Since the onset of the twin pandemics that plague us, many of you, and the public generally, have sought reassurance that your life savings were not going to be wiped out in some end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it scenario.  I have responded in my philosophical way that pandemics -- both the viral and the political kinds -- come and go, and that in the end they will have no bearing on your net worth.  Perhaps I have made these remarks too blithely sometimes, but so far, with regard to both the Trumpian pandemic and COVID-19, I have been more right than wrong on the financial impact. However, and this is a big however, I take much less comfort from the ongoing social consequences of COVID-19.  I have to admit to underplaying them.  The cruelty of loved ones dying in complete isolation in nursing homes and intensive care has been beyond measure.  I didn’t see that coming.   The cabin fever effect -- the inability to physically see and touch and hug and kiss and play -- has taken an enormous toll on our collective psyches.  ZOOM and its analogues, have been marvellous stop-gaps, but in the end, they just don’t cut it.  Most of us crave human company, up close and personal.  All to say, my heart and sympathies go out, especially to those like my sister Susie, and so many others, who are immuno-compromised or have other conditions that preclude even masked visitations, even now as things are gradually opening up.  I miss Susie! So that’s my humble admission of hubris.  I downplayed the virus and I was wrong.  While always an optimist, I have no predictions on when it is going to be behind us.  What I can say with a fair degree of confidence, is that society is going to have to rearrange itself after this pandemic.   For starters, we can only hope that in future the workers we deem to be “essential” will be compensated accordingly.  To be worried about the dividends in our portfolios when the cleaners, and migrant farm workers, and  grocery store clerks and shelf-stockers, and meat packing plant workers, and PSWs and nurses  and emergency service workers have been risking their lives every day and dying for us in droves, is beyond any level of social acceptance.  

                                           § I came back to Kingston by accident early in the summer of 2005.  My mother was unexpectedly in hospital and I came to help care for her.  I spent many long days at her bedside.  Prior to heading to the hospital each morning, I would rise early and take my dog Max down to the lake for a walk along a beautiful stretch of shoreline starting at the former Rockwood Insane Asylum buildings.  On the second or third morning of this new routine we espied some bathing caps quite far out in the lake.  “Those look like serious swimmers,” I said to Max.  Max agreed.  As an ardent swimmer, I was intrigued. The next morning on our walk we happened to come across what looked to be the same swimmers as they were emerging from the lake at the beach behind Rockwood.  They were a group of four women and I couldn’t resist approaching them.   “Hello, I’m Chris West.  I think I’ve seen you swimming far out, and this is Max.  Max hates the water, but I’m a life-long swimmer.  How far do you go?” Susan, Francine, Peggy and Sue very graciously introduced themselves and explained that for several years they had been meeting at this point every morning at seven o’clock for a swim that lasted about 45 minutes or so.  They told me they loved this ritual and did it from as soon as the water was tolerable in June until Thanksgiving. “That’s amazing!” I said.  “I’m visiting from Montreal, but I grew up in Kingston and my parents started every summer’s day with a swim at Richardson Beach.  I salute you.  Bravo!” “Well why don’t you join us?” rejoindered Tall Susan (as opposed to Little Sue).  I couldn’t believe my good fortune.   “You mean it?” “Absolutely,” said Tall Susan.  We’re here every morning at seven.  See you tomorrow!” And that was the beginning of a beautiful friendship and my salvation in a summer that my Mom did not survive.  Fifteen years later, as pictured above, the Mermaids as they are now known are more numerous in number, but we still swim every morning.  More than ever, as we grind through the pandemic, this sisterhood is my salvation. I wish the same kind of human connection for all of you.  In whatever form it takes, it is the most precious and important thing, and will carry us through the uncertainty that lies ahead.  CW                                              § CLASS OF 2020 YEAR-END REPORT CARD Positive returns in tough year! Given the mayhem precipitated by the COVID-19 lockdowns around the world, and incompetent leadership south of the border, the Headmaster is very relieved that the Class of 2020 made it to the June 30th finish line in positive terrain.   The Class average for the July 1, 2019 to June 30, 2020 period came in at a 2.8% gain, versus -5.2% for the TSX; 5.3% for the S&P 500; and -2.9% for the Dow.  “Once again,” said the Headmaster, “we bested the average of our benchmarks.  I can’t ask more of the Class than that.”   He continued: “One must note, however, that the Class results were far from even.  Were it not for the outstanding contributions of Apple and Microsoft, with returns of 84.3% and 51.9% respectively, the Class would have been underwater.”

“At the other extreme, cyclical classmates like Nutrien (fertilizers and farm supplies) and CCL (consumer labels and packaging) were particularly vulnerable to the COVID slowdown and their performances of -37% and -31.6% respectively reflect how they were whipsawed.” “Overall, though, the diversity and the quality of the Class of 2020 shone through, as I would have hoped.”     Here are the sector by sector results.  Financials - C Canadian bank stalwarts TD, RBC and BNS were seriously whacked by both COVID and the collapse in the energy sector, with an average return of -17.6%.  “The market’s concerns about the banks’ rising impaired loans and falling profits are perfectly reasonable,” says the Headmaster.  “But I have confidence in this trio.  With their strong balance sheets and prudent management, they will prevail.  Promoted.”  “The bright spark in Financials was the US asset manager, BlackRock, who turned in a terrific 15.9% return and actually managed to grow their assets under management to well above $7 trillion.  None of their competition came close to this performance.  Hats off to CEO Larry Fink and co.  Promoted.”     Resources - D As noted above, it was tough sledding for the sole contributor in this category, Nutrien.  Adds the Headmaster: “With major potash buyers China and India holding back, and US farmers shrinking from the market in a COVID frame of mind, it was inevitable that Nutrien would take a hit.”  “However, management is extremely disciplined and when demand drops, cuts production rather than chasing volume at lower prices.  This tactic has paid off handsomely in the past and will do so in the future.  Promoted.”  Energy - B minus Quelle surprise, green energy firm Algonquin (wind and solar farms) bested the oil and gas pipeline giant, Enbridge, with returns respectively of 10.5% and minus 12.7%.  The Headmaster comments: “Each proved its worth in a time of crisis with positive cash flows supporting generous dividends.  I have no doubt this pair will continue to rebound nicely in the COVID recovery.  Promoted.”  Infrastructure - B Brookfield Infrastructure invests in long-duration assets around the world, including port terminals, cell phone towers, gas transmission systems, toll roads and data centres.  Together with parent Brookfield Asset Management, the company has advantageous access to capital and the smarts to deploy it wisely.  As the Headmaster sees it: “Economic downturns are when Brookfield excels.  Just wait until truly distressed companies start to cry ‘Uncle!’.  Brookfield will be there with cheque book and sharp pencil at the ready.  Promoted.” Retail - B plus Montrealers Alimentation Couche Tard (convenience store and fuel sales around the world) and Metro, the grocer, once again proved the worth of their pedigrees.  With respective returns of 3.3% and 13.9%, they easily beat the market.   Each of these classmates was in the “essential services” category and nimble in taking measures to protect their workers and serve their customers safely.   “Metro actually managed to increase both revenues and profits,” adds the Headmaster, “benefiting from the pandemic stocking-up phenomenon.  Couche Tard, of course, experienced a major drop in fuel sales as car travel came to a near halt, but still cranked out a gain in profits.  Bravo to both!  Promoted.” Industry - C minus The three class members in this category, CNR, John Deere and CCL, are in classically cyclical businesses.  And in classical fashion they were buffeted by the COVID winds. As mentioned above, CCL proved to be particularly vulnerable, but post the end of term has shown promising shoots of renewed growth.  John Deere hunkered down admirably and suffered only a 5.1% drop.  Blue chip performer CNR, sustaining hits to both revenues and profits, managed nonetheless to convince the market that the worst is behind it.  It’s share price neither fell nor rose.  Says the Headmaster:  “We knew this trio was in for a rough ride.  I am pleased with how well they have done collectively and see them as poised for nice gains in the Class of 2021.  Promoted.”   Healthcare - A Biotech giant Amgen and healthcare conglomerate Johnson and Johnson (pharmaceuticals, medical devices and personal care) chalked up a scintillating average gain of 14%.   Says the Headmaster, “I have been trying to tell anyone who would listen for the past couple of years that the healthcare sector was undervalued and unjustifiably unloved in the markets.” “Yes, of course, the hunt for a COVID vaccine has given a lift to many healthcare stocks, and JNJ has benefited somewhat in this regard, but the true story here is that every soundly constructed portfolio needs a healthy dose of stocks like these that are virtually recession-proof.  When they are trading at bargain valuations, back up the truck!  Promoted”   Footnote:  Just after the year-end, the Headmaster added another global pharma player to the Class of 2021, Merck & Co.  Telecom - C  Class veteran Telus slipped in sales and profits in the wake of the COVID lockdown, but not catastrophically.  The stock was down over the year a tolerable 5.9%.

“Most importantly,” chimes in the Headmaster, “Telus continues to beat the pants off arch rivals BCE and Rogers in the metrics that really count: customer ‘churn’ (the rate at which subscribers are lost and have to be replaced) and customer satisfaction.  Promoted.” Info Tech - A plus  As already alluded to, and as the Headmaster puts it: “Apple and Microsoft, without a scintilla of equivocation, brought home the bacon for the entire Class of 2020.  But benchmates Open Text and Visa were no slouches either with gains respectively of 6.6% and 11.3%.  Collectively this quartet contributed an average gain of 38.5%!” The Headmaster continues: “I could bore you to tears with a slew of information about why these companies are prospering, but let’s cut to the chase and zero in on the essentials.” “Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO is probably the most underappreciated top exec of all time.  Anyone who can dance the dance with both Donald J. Blunderbuss Trump and Xi Chairman-for-Life Jinping, and come out of a protracted and ongoing China/US trade war unscathed ... nay, not just unscathed but thriving ... is doing a heck of a lot of things right.” “They fault Cook for not being another gadget inventor like Steve Jobs, but that misses the point.  His gift has been to grow exponentially the Apple and iPhone eco-system, not just with technical innovation, but also by cultivating an exceedingly loyal customer base.  That begets higher profit margins, that beget further investment in the eco-system and building the brand.  “Cook must be doing something right.  Under his watch Apple’s market capitalization (the value of all its shares) has grown by over $1 trillion US, dwarfing the growth under Jobs.  Promoted.” “Microsoft under the inspired leadership of Satya Nadella is an explosive growth company.  Its cloud business Azure just clocked an increase in revenues of 47% and is now second in the world only to Amazon’s AWS cloud service, but fast gaining.  The gaming side of the biz -- think Xbox and Minecraft -- is hitting it out of the park too, riding a COVID tailwind.”  “And who is one of the leading go-to companies with a collaborative platform for linking personnel working remotely, including video conferencing?  None other than Microsoft’s Teams brand, also growing exponentially.  Oh yes, and then there is that boring, but oh so profitable legacy software business, increasingly on ‘sticky’ subscription plans.  Promoted.” “Software services player Open Text, the pride of Waterloo, is also riding the cloud computing wave.  While not nearly in Microsoft’s league, this is a first-class  consolidator in the sector, with a proven record of wise and profitable acquisitions.  The market is expecting more of the same.  At writing the stock price has just hit a new all-time high.  Promoted.” “Class vet Visa has been and remains my favourite near monopoly.  Between them, Visa and competitor MasterCard control some 85% of the global payments business.  That is, the infrastructure that connects buyers and sellers and banks whenever they use services like credit cards, debit cards, PayPal, Square, Apple Pay und so weiter.” “While one can argue that digital payments is a mature industry in North America and Europe, everywhere else it is a burgeoning growth business.  End of story.  Promoted.” Entertainment - C minus The lone spear carrier for the Class in this sector is the formidable Walt Disney Co.  Whereas a company like Microsoft seems to have been blessed by the pandemic, with a suite of products and services that could only benefit, the House of Mouse has suffered the opposite effect.   Explains the Headmaster: “Take the cruise line biz ... please!  It’s kaput until further notice.  Take the theme parks.  Take the first-run movie release business.  Take the Broadway shows.  Take ESPN with no live sports to broadcast for three  months and only slowly coming back.”   What company could survive so many body blows?  “Well, Disney could and it will,” continues the Headmaster.  “The fact that it ended the school year only 20.1% down is testament to that.” “I have supreme confidence that Disney will adjust as it always has and come roaring back.  Actually, Mickey Mouse wouldn’t come roaring.  He will come back with cheerful but steely determination.  A sign of that already is the 60 million paying subscribers that Disney’s streaming service has garnered in less than a year since launching.  This is a unique company with incredible brand assets that every child should have in their RESP.  Promoted.” If you would like further information on any of the investing ideas raised in this issue, or a complimentary consultation, please call or email. CW

[spaceappsph]

Pinoy app addressing pandemic impact wins the Space Apps COVID-19 Challenge

MANILA, Philippines - An integrated public policy information portal measuring the impact of the coronavirus pandemic developed by Filipinos won the Space Apps COVID-19 Challenge in the best use of data, the solution that best makes space data accessible, or leverages it to a unique application. Using Earth observation, in-country economic and human mobility data, and global infection case counts, data analysts Nick Tobia, Helen Mary Barrameda, Kristel Joyce Zapata, Theresa Rosario Tan, and Miguel Oscar Castelo from CirroLytix created a dashboard for policy makers and economic planners to show the impact of COVID-19 on various countries and effects on the economy and environment.

Named G.I.D.E.O.N. (Global Impact Detection from Emitted Light, Onset of Covid-19, and Nitrogen Dioxide), the portal uses news feeds, Google mobility data, and coronavirus cases revealing the multi-dimensional impact of lockdown and other interventions. Night lights from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) and nitrogen dioxide levels from Sentinel-5P show current impacts and forecast effects of lockdown. Google's community mobility reports, global infection data from Johns Hopkins University, and nitrogen dioxide data reveal pollution levels produced by human activity, and monitor which countries keep air quality under control as they bounce back from lockdown and pave the way for the "new normal."

Aside from having a global winner, two Pinoy teams made it as global finalists too.

Inspired by social isolation experienced by astronauts in space, Snail Space (A wordplay for snail's pace) is an app giving a "safe space" by providing mental care and comfort during times of social isolation brought by COVID-19 pandemic. It was developed by Celestial Snails team comprised of Arturo Caronongan III, Kevin Olanday, In Yong Lee, Mary Anne Dominique Casacop, and Gabriel Santiago from De La Salle University.

With public health in mind, Sentinellium leverages user data sent through SMS and chat, and space assets like population density, urbanization, and aerosol to provide a more accurate prediction of developing epidemics. This was done by Harlee Quizzagan, James Andrew C. Cornes, Angela Chua, Alaica Mariño, Joal Rose Lin, and Mohammad Ashraful Mobin, in which their group was formed during the hackathon period.

"The use of these modern and advanced technologies will be crucial, especially as the world navigates the fourth industrial revolution. Using big data, cloud, and AI applications for instance, could help us understand the severity of the disease and aid in delivering measures to mitigate its impact," according to the Undersecretary for Competitiveness and Innovation of the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) Dr. Rafaelita "Fita" M. Aldaba. "This really fills me with great optimism that our young and talented startups and Filipinos have so much to offer and contribute to our efforts to provide solutions to address health and economic crisis," she said.

Last May 30-31, 2020, coders, entrepreneurs, scientists, designers, storytellers, makers, builders, artists, and technologists have been invited in an all-virtual, global hackathon by the United States space agency National Aeronautics Space Administration (NASA), along with the European Space Agency (ESA), Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), the National Centre for Space Studies (CNES) of France, and Canadian Space Agency (CSA). During a period of 48 hours, more than 15,000 participants from 150 countries created more than 2,000 virtual teams. Participants used Earth observation and other open data to propose solutions to one of twelve challenges related to the COVID-19 pandemic.

During the virtual bootcamp one week prior to the hackathon, Ellison Castro, Cara Patricia Canlas, and Arlo Jayson Sabuito from STAMINA4Space discussed the capabilities of microsatellites in determining the height of clouds and forest fire mapping using support vector machine. During the hackathon, Aldrich Tan, Elymar Apao, Chi Señires, and Janyl Tamayo from UXPH helped participants in designing and bringing user experience to their projects. Andresito de Guzman of PWA Pilipinas taught participants on developing progressive web applications. 2019 global winner in the best use of data Dominic Vincent Ligot from the Analytics Association of the Philippines and Data Ethics PH brought inspiration by emphasizing the importance of data analytics for social good.

G.I.D.E.O.N. is one of the six global winners selected by NASA, ESA, JAXA, CSA, and CNES, and one of the three teams shall have special access to the Euro Data Cube environment. If travel is deemed safe, winners shall also be invited to visit a NASA site to view a spacecraft launch. However, travel, accommodation, and food costs are not included. Lead organizer Michael Lance M. Domagas appeals support for the current and past winners, finalists, and especially to the four-year community who worked so hard in bringing honor for the country. "After being recognized by five leading space agencies of the planet, its time for our own country to show appreciation and give support for those who are stepping forward in combating the COVID-19 pandemic and its effects in our society today to defeat our common enemy," he said.

Previous Pinoy hackathon winners are Project AEDES (2019), using satellite and climate data to pinpoint possible dengue hotspots, and ISDApp (2018), which uses citizen science data to inform fishermen the right time to catch fish.

The Space Apps COVID-19 Challenge is a special edition of NASA’s annual Space Apps Challenge, an international hackathon that takes place around the world and online every October. Since 2012, teams have engaged with NASA's free and open data to address real-world problems on Earth and in space. Space Apps 2019 included more than 29,000 participants in 71 countries, developing more than 2,000 hackathon solutions over one weekend. This NASA-led initiative is organized in collaboration with Booz Allen Hamilton, Mindgrub, and SecondMuse. The next annual Space Apps Challenge is scheduled for October 2-4, 2020 in a virtual format. Registration opens August 15: https://2020.spaceappschallenge.org/locations/manila

[holytheoristtastemaker]

This article is part of Educative's COVID-19 Survival Guide Series.

Work-from-home devices for developers

Home office setup tips for developers

After the onset of the COVID-19 crisis, as thousands of companies across the world issued mandatory work-from-home orders, you may have suddenly found yourself in need of a home office space suitable for months-long use.

For many developers, this home-to-office transition was a steep and unexpected change. According to the US Department of Labor Statistics, only about 15% of American workers have regularly worked from home prior to the pandemic. Without a preexisting home office space, developers like you are having to overhaul their setups amid the chaos of the crisis in order to stay productive.

Having an effective set up is more than just tech gadgets alone. It’s also about tending to the needs of your body. Working from the couch isn’t a long-term solution. So, to help you build the best work-from-home office, today we’re going to go over furniture and devices you’ll need to keep coding comfortably all work-week long.

Today we’ll cover

What a developer needs in an office chair

How and why to choose a mouse

Keyboards: parsing fact and fiction

Key monitor specs and distances

Best desk height and width for coding

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What a developer needs in an office chair

The most important attribute to consider when choosing your chair is long-term comfort. You’ll likely be sitting for hours at a time, so you’ll need a chair that keeps your body relaxed and supported to avoid painful strain on the body. Below we’ll break down some key elements to look for when choosing your rolling throne.

Lumbar and Spine Support

Finding a genuinely comfortable and supportive chair can be difficult as many chairs call themselves ergonomic without explanation.

As a simple rule, look for chairs that press the lower back into a slight inward stretch. This encourages good posture by straightly aligning your spine and reduces the instinct of slouch after coding for several hours.

Also, look for chairs that feature a full back from the pelvis to the neck. Many office chairs will cut the backrest around the mid-shoulder, which, while comfortable for short periods, can put a strain on the shoulders and upper spine.

Material - Leather or Fabric:

The staple of any good office chair lies in the upholstery. Especially in these hot summer months, material choice is crucial for comfort.

While leather has traditionally been the standard, many experts now recommend a more breathable material such as fabric or mesh.  For developers, breathable material will help you stay cool and comfortable for hours without heat build-up.

How Padded is too Padded?

For seat padding, it can be hard to know how comfortable an office chair will be for an extended sit by a test-sit alone. A good rule to stick by is that you should look for a chair with enough padding that you cannot feel the hard underside.

Ergonomic Armrest Setups

Armrests are essential. Typing without armrests can cause severe pulling on the shoulders and wrists. The ideal armrest is long enough to allow the elbows to sit at a 90-degree angle while also being low enough that it doesn’t take all of your arms weight. Too much weight on the armrest is a good indicator that it’s pushing your arms and shoulder up into a harmful position.

Buyer's Quick Guide

Lumbar support forcing back into a slight curve

Backrest over the tops of the shoulder

Fabric or mesh material for breathability

Just padded enough that you don’t feel the underside of the chair

Armrests that arms rest lightly on and keep arms at 90 degrees

How and Why to Choose a Mouse:

As with armrests, using a mouse over a trackpad can alleviate a lot of the stress in the wrist.  The reason is simple: long term wrist health is all about keeping the wrist as flat and in-line as possible, but trackpads require the wrist to be in a slightly raised position in front of the user rather than in-line with the forearm. Over hours or days, this slight elevation can lead to some serious wrist and forearm strain!

Trackball: Odd or Awesome?

Mice, while better than trackpads, can also cause wrist injuries if used incorrectly. If you want to minimize the danger of wrist injury, consider getting a trackball mouse. While it may look like a mouse in a funhouse mirror, it can actually save you some serious pain as you work.

This is a mouse that remains stationary, with the user controlling the pointer by rolling a ball on the mouse’s side with their thumb. The trackball enforces good mouse habits by keeping the wrist and forearm in a healthy position.

Many developers swear by trackball mice for easing wrist tensions while still allowing easy horizontal movement for selecting code and precision.

It may take some time to get used to, but the added comfort and safety will be well worth it during those late-night coding grinds.

DPI

Look for a mouse with a high Dots Per Inch (DPI) if trackballs aren’t for you. This indicates that it has a higher pointer sensitivity meaning the pointer will move farther with each movement of the mouse, minimizing your arm movement and reducing strain on the wrist.

DPI will usually be listed under the product specs, or you can also find mice that have adjustable DPI in its setup options. Having a DPI at least as high as your monitor’s horizontal resolution is preferred as then moving from one side to the other needs only a single inch of mouse movement.

Buyer's Quick Guide

Place mouse so wrists are flat and in-line with the forearm

Trackballs are best for wrist health

High DPI mice reduce twisting and movement in the wrist and forearm

Keyboards: Parsing Fact and Fiction

The keyboard is likely the most used device in a developer’s office, but with so many claims and buzzwords, it can be hard to know which device is best. Ultimately, keyboards come down to personal preference and familiarity, not ergonomic splits and pads. Some keyboards are even better for certain programming languages. So, if it’s just a matter of preference, how do we know which to choose? First, let's start with those dos and don'ts that we know to be true.

Following our trend, wrists should be parallel to the floor, so a keyboard that is flat to the desk is ideal. While many keyboards have the option to slant up and point away from you, it’s best to avoid these. They actually force the wrist into a raised position that is strenuous when coding at heavy intervals.

As our second and final truth, look for keyboards with keys that are easy to press and don’t stick. The effort required to push stiff keys will build up over the course of a 500 line Python file, leaving knuckles and fingers sore. The tiniest movements overtime will cause strain you don’t notice until it’s too late.

The Myths: Mechanical vs Membrane

Some argue that mechanical keyboards should be ruled out as stiff, but this is not necessarily true when looking at keyboards of the same quality and age.

Well made mechanical keyboards offer the same force needed as a membrane keyboard of the same quality. In the end, this distinction is down to preference and what you’re used to typing on.

Ergonomic/Split-Keyboards vs Standard

In the last 10 years, split keyboards (2-part keyboards split down the middle) and other ergonomic keyboards have started to pop up on the market.

Producers claim that their product will end developers' wrist pain. In reality, there are no concrete studies that prove these devices can help developers across the board.

There is more evidence to suggest that negative slope keyboards (raised towards the user and lower toward the top) take the weight off the wrists, but this is complicated by other claims that say this pressure restricts blood flow via inflammation.

Overall, this is once again a case where personal preference prevails; if you have a keyboard you like that is flat and responsive, there’s no need to switch.

The trick here may be the way you position your hands rather than the keyboard itself. Look up tips for ergonomic positions before you invest in a new keyboard. Simply changing the angle of your wrist or retraining some keystrokes may actually be the solution.

Buyer's Quick Guide

Flat keyboards are best as they keep wrists parallel to the floor

Look for highly responsive keys to avoid finger and knuckle fatigue

Choose a keyboard you like and are comfortable with, ergonomic hand positions are more important than a fancy sloped keyboard

Key Monitor Specs and Distances

PPI

When looking for a monitor, a developer should prioritize first a monitor’s pixels per inch (PPI). Width comes second. Low PPI displays use a large monitor to maintain standard resolution, like a 27-inch monitor that only supports 1020x1980.

The slightly blurred visuals of these displays increase eye fatigue with close-attention operations, like reading tightly packed code segments. Stick to monitors above 100 PPI for the best eye comfort.

Screen Width

For programming, screen width is invaluable as it allows you to view multiple windows at once. Many developers are now turning to ultra-wide displays (larger than 25 inches wide) for this reason. While these monitors are fantastic to use, their cost ($1000+) makes them infeasible for many developers.

You don’t need to invest in a massive monitor to be productive. To get a similar workspace, you can use a side by side dual monitor setup with each screen angled toward you. Buying two monitors for this dual-screen method will often be cheaper than buying a single ultra-wide, and, if one breaks, it’s a lot easier to replace.

Optimal Monitor Placement

Monitor should be positioned to have your eye-line midway between monitor center and the top, usually about 2-3 inches.

Screen should be arms-length away from eyes

If using dual monitors equally, place them side-by-side, slightly facing you in a “V” shape so no neck movement is needed to see either

If using a primary and secondary dual monitor, place the primary in front of you with the secondary roughly 30 degrees to one side.

HDMI Restrictions

Make sure you check your HDMI cords before buying a new monitor! Single-link HDMI cords come in two types, HDMI 1.0 which supports resolutions up to 1920x1200, and HDMI 1.3 which supports all resolutions beyond that. Make sure to use an HDMI cord fit for your monitor resolution to avoid limiting your image quality.

Buyer's Quick Guide

High PPI is the priority, look for PPI higher than 100

Width is second priority, dual monitors and ultra-wides are helpful to track multiple windows and tabs

Dual monitors will be cheaper and provide similar width to ultra-wides

Ultra-wides are more expensive but come with new features like curved screens

If using HDMI, get the type which supports your monitor resolution: HDMI 1.0 for 1920x1080 or lower and HDMI 1.3 for anything greater than that.

Best Desk Height and Width for Coding

Most factors are personal preferences when choosing a desk, such as material or storage space. Choosing the correct height and width, however, is essential to ensure bodily comfort and organization that meets your needs.

In most offices, the industry-standard desk height is 29 inches (73 cm) from floor to tabletop. This, however, is best suited for somebody taller than 5 feet, 10 inches.

The best, most adaptable solution, then, is to use an adjustable desk that ranges from at least 25 - 30 inches from floor to tabletop. Try out different setups in this range to see which feels best.

As for width, look for a desk at least 50-60 inches across to ensure you can comfortably fit an ultra-wide monitor or two reasonably sized monitors as we discussed above.

Width, of course, will largely depend on the size constraints of your living space. If you do not have much space available, prioritize your body’s position over your monitors. It’s more important that you have enough space to move and sit ergonomically.

Buyer's Quick Guide

Look for an adjustable desk with a range of 25 - 30 inches

50 - 60-inch desk width is best for dual monitor or ultra-wide setups

Prioritize personal space over desk space

Best of Luck

These times are uncertain, and many large companies are changing their policies to favor work from home situations in the long-run. This means that home offices may stay as our workplaces for months, even years to come.

Whether just replacing a few items or overhauling the whole office, I hope this guide has helped you along the way by sharing what your fellow developers look for when building comfortable and efficient new home offices.

Happy upgrading and stay healthy!

[worklabournewsresearch]

Future of Skills in a Digital Economy

“The 2020 Survey on Employment and Skills explores the perspectives and experiences of Canadians relating to education, skills and employment, including perceptions of job security, the impact of technological change, and the value of different forms of training.”

“Conducted by the Environics Institute for Survey Research, in partnership with the Future Skills Centre and the Diversity Institute at Ryerson University, the survey of 5,000 Canadians 18 years and older in all jurisdictions across Canada was conducted between February 28 and April 4, 2020.”

“The survey began prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada, at a time of comparatively low unemployment but growing concern about the changing nature of work, including technology-driven disruptions, increasing insecurity and shifting skills requirements. The survey finds that Canadians tend to have a positive assessment of both the impact of technological change and of the value of the post-secondary education and skills training that they have received. At the same time, many are also concerned about job security for themselves or their family, and have either recently experienced unemployment or know someone close to them who has.”

Future Skills Centre, September 16, 2020: “Adapting to the Changing World of Work: Final Report from the 2020 Survey on Employment and Skills”

Cision, September 16, 2020: “Canadians welcome technology at work--but not everybody is benefiting”

Future Skills Centre, May 2020: Canadians’ Shifting Outlook on Employment: Survey on Employment and SkillsPreliminary Report (22 pages, PDF)

Future Skills Centre

Future Skills: international

World Economic Forum, July 27, 2020: “How can companies offer effective reskilling for employees?”

McKinsey & Company, May 7, 2020: “To emerge stronger from the COVID-19 crisis, companies should start reskilling their workforces now”