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thelawyerthatwaspromised · 6 years

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Tinfoil - Jon's Two Huge Lies

This is tinfoil and it’s not really something I can prove but I have a little bit of a wild theory that pushes political!Jon farther but, I think, makes a lot of stuff make sense.

Quick summary: I don’t think Jon went to Dragonstone with a plan to manipulate Daenerys. I don’t think he and Sansa worked out anything nefarious. I do think Jon believes that it’s a dangerous decision but something he must do. In his eyes, the only way to save the realm is getting Dany and her dragons up North.

The first encounter was terrible for Jon.

Davos additionally looks unhappy. He gives his own “c’mon...we’re here at YOUR invitation...stop treating us like this” but still, it goes awful.

Imagine Jon makes it to this point and learns that not only is Dany here to conquer, she’s also volatile.

He warns her against using her dragons. I’m sure antis still like to argue this point - but Jon doesn’t tell her anything affirmative when she DEMANDS his advice, he tells her not to use her huge weapons on people. He wants them to breathe fire on wights - not on the living. Argue that if you want but...

He’s not pleased with her and her look confirms this.

So...why did I bother quickly re-capping up to this point? Because this is the scene where I believe Jon realized that he’s going to have to bend the knee but that he’s really uninterested in following through with helping Dany take King’s Landing.

Boy, not only am I saying that Jon is manipulating Dany’s personal feelings, but now I’m taking it a step farther and saying he’s actively lying to her about his political intentions? That’s a bridge too far. This is Jon Snow we’re talking about...the man incapable of lying.

“I don’t have a king...”

Let’s get over it. Jon Snow lies. Maybe you think he’s not lying here, but his impeccable truth-telling record does not exist.

Anyway, why do I think Jon Snow is lying to Daenerys?

Fairly simple premise: Jon Snow wants Dany’s help in the North and he doesn’t want to fight another war in King’s Landing. But he can’t do both. If he refuses to pledge his people to fight for Dany - she won’t help defeat the NK, dooming everyone to extinction.

If you were in a position like that, what might you do? If it were me, I’d maybe check to see if I could get the more immediate issue resolved and leave the second half of the equation for later.

So Jon bent the knee.

But it’s not quite as simple as that. Jon’s timing had to be right (if he pledged to her immediately, she’d immediately call his banners and demand he march south to finish Cersei quickly). Each time Jon tried to reason with Dany about marching North and forgetting her campaign against Cersei, Dany was reluctant about it. Jon realized that he could not make her forget about Cersei.

He was there to get Dany as an ally. He was ready to leave when he received word that Bran and Arya had returned to Winterfell. Again, he was ready to leave. He had given up on the idea that he could convince Dany to help. Then Tyrion came up with the wight hunt. It was stupid writing, but this was the mechanic that gave Jon reason to believe he could truly get Dany’s attention focused towards the Wall and not on the Iron Throne.

Jon decides to go on the wight hunt.

The premise of the wight hunt is that it’s an avenue to get a truce with Cersei. Something Jon has never expressed any interest in before this point. Has Jon changed his mind on the conflict? I’m not sure...the last time he talked about anything that had to do with the Dany v. Cersei throw down, Dany had just won a major victory and she surmised that Jon didn’t know how he felt about that to which Jon said...

This doesn’t appear to be someone who is enthusiastic about the prospect of fighting a war for Dany.

But did Jon say anything on the wight hunt that indicates he’s super pumped about serving a new Queen?

At this very point, Jon still has no interest in bending the knee, he reiterates that he serves the North, and he tell Tormund that it’s both Dany AND Cersei that he needs to convince to help them.

Circle that with a red marker. Right on your computer monitor. It’ll be fine.

The wight hunt goes about as well as expected. People needlessly die. The NK gets a dragon. Poor Thoros dies a pretty unmemorable death. Benjen dies getting Jon back to the Wall. Over what?

A truce with Cersei.

A truce with Cersei that is already going to be betrayed before it ever happens.

A truce with Cersei that is already going to be betrayed before it ever happens in a war that Jon doesn’t care about.

Step into Jon’s shoes for a moment. You’ve told people how many times that you don’t consider the war important in the south. You think Dany ought to go North without a truce with Cersei. Why would Jon agree to go on the wight hunt if he just thinks Dany could go North without a truce?

Because it’s about getting Dany to go North - and Jon is convinced that he can’t get Dany to go North unless he can get her to shake her focus off of Cersei.

“Fine, I’ll do this if that’s what it takes to get you to forget about Cersei for a few seconds” I imagine Jon thinking to himself.

Again, it’s important to remember that the wight hunt wasn’t about actually fighting the Night King but about getting only a truce for a whole separate political conflict that Jon otherwise has no intention of involving himself.

Not only that, but the truce wasn’t even about “uniting” the realm. They never asked Cersei to come along. They never asked her to band together with them to fight a common enemy. They asked her to hit the pause button so Dany didn’t lose territory in the south.

If you disagree with this, find me a quote ANYWHERE that indicates that Jon or Dany believe that Cersei will attack them from the rear at any point if they don’t get the truce. I’ll wait.

Ok, I’m done waiting.

Jon is injured horribly. He’s unconscious on the boat. He’s lost his uncle Benjen. He’s been plunged into freezing water. And Dany is looming over him.

Jon should be comforted in this moment. He almost died. He lost his uncle, whom he loved dearly. They got the damn wight. Instead, Jon is apologizing and babysitting Dany’s feelings. There’s no reciprocation of comfort and sympathy.

But that’s beside the point of this post. The important part of this scene for Jon is the recognition of Dany’s emotional state. She’s vulnerable. She’s lost her third favorite dragon, after all.

In her anger and with tears in her eyes, she finally says what Jon has wanted to hear, “we’ll destroy Night King and his army...and we’ll do it together.”

Wa-bam! That’s the timing. That’s the moment. Because he’s still convinced that....

“But she jurrrrrrrst prerrrrmised him she’d fight with himmmmmmm....this proofs that John haz got know raison to think Dany won’t keep her porpoises!” ~ some anti just thought this

Jon immediately seizes this moment to bend the knee.

My theory is that Jon picked this moment for this exact set of reasons: 1) He believes he needs her dragons and army to have a chance to beat the NK 2) he believes she won’t actually fight with him unless he bends the knee 3) he needed her to commit to the fight first because his mission is still his number one priority and the most tinfoil-y part; 4) this order of events gives Jon the best chance to use Dany’s resources and avoid sacrificing northerners in a southern war.

Why am I fairly sure of this tinfoil? A number of reasons. The knee bending scene on the boat falls into place when put into this context. Most specifically - THIS portion of the scene makes the most sense if we’re operating under the assumption that Jon is essentially lying his ass off about being willing to fight with Dany in the south:

The more I’ve thought it, the less likely I would believe that Jon is agonizing as much as he is at the end of the scene for something like “I feel bad for manipulating this woman” - I fully believe he’s agonizing over first feeling like he may have betrayed Ned’s memory (I’ll get to this in a bit) and that he’s lying his ass off. To be clear, I fully acknowledge this makes Jon’s actions in S7 even more extreme than “Jon manipulates Dany’s feelings to get her to go North” and puts it into “Jon manipulates her feelings AND lies about a pretty huge material fact.”

As things move on, I think it falls even more into place. If you were Jon and you had zero clue why Dany is so tunnel-visiony about the Iron Throne and being in King’s Landing, you might imagine him saying something like:

Like, ok, small town boy Jon has never seen a big city! How dim and inexperienced! Maybe Jon earnestly just thought this to himself - or maybe he still has absolutely no idea why Dany wants this so badly. Something prompted this thought. Jon expressing mild dismay that he has to even step foot in King’s Landing for this would seem pretty well connected to the idea that he just went on a ridiculously stupid mission just so they could go to this city- and get the truce for the war he doesn’t care about.

Then Jon is faced with the Cersei question - after things seem to have been going well.

Poor Jon really doesn’t wanna lie.

So he doesn’t...sort of.

(antis getting angry because they think Jon telling the truth to Cersei is proof that he’s not lying so this is all stupid)

But hold on a second.

I’ve already argued that Jon doesn’t care about the war in the south.

He doesn’t care about whether Dany or Cersei sit on the Iron Throne.

He certainly has shown he’s willing to do anything to try to save the North....

....except....supposedly...lying to Cersei? That’s where we think Jon Snow draws the line? He’ll risk his life for a truce only to torpedo that same truce at the first opportunity? Really?

I’ve already written about how Jon’s POV is obscured in S7 and the method to cover that up was to have other characters saying they know exactly what Jon Snow is thinking.

As you can see, this decision by Jon was revealed as a complete surprise to everyone at the Dragonpit which means that the decision was meant to confuse the audience. Varys, Davos, Tyrion, even Missandei are completely shocked about this turn of events. All Jon had to do was say “ok, on my honor as the honorable son of the honorably honorable Ned Stark, I pledge to be honorable and stay honorable by sitting out the war when we beat the NK.”

That’s it. That’s all.

Was Jon just stupid for not doing so? NO. Listen, if Jon was just stupid - there’s no reason to root for him and the entire message of the show about the good guy being wise enough to avoid being killed by the bad guy is utterly meaningless. Jon will not deserve to rule anything if he just flat couldn’t lie to Cersei.

What’s the alternative? Oddly enough - that he DID lie to Cersei.

Because if Jon tells the truth, that he wants to stay in the North, he gives Dany total reason to doubt his intentions. This entire trip, Jon has been the Northern fool. He’s been Ned Stark’s honorably honorable son. It’s been a well-crafted image.

And yet - in that moment in the Dragonpit Jon had to lie - because he ALREADY LIED and the only way to truly make sure that his first lie didn’t get out was by lying a second time. So what was the first lie?

And again you remember how happy Jon was to assert his love for Dany and give her the Stark ancestral home that he doesn’t even feel comfortable enough to take the Lord’s chambers?

Remember how Jon looked when he told Dany the first time he pledged to her? It ends with him staring up at the ceiling clearly feeling uncomfortable.

How does he look the second time?

Jon doesn’t intend on following Dany. He didn’t tell anyone he had “pledged” to her because he didn’t want to be put in the position of affirming that stance. But Cersei went ahead and cornered him. If Jon went back on what he told her in her moment of vulnerability, Jon very easily could lose her confidence.

Just to remind the class, what does Jon think he needs for Dany to fight with him?

This might get repetitive with the gifs but it’s to show how this entire theory of Jon’s character is layered at multiple times with a unifying theme that explains entirely how Jon behaved in S7.

What little extra bit of tinfoil do I have as well?

Jon suggests that “I did this, I should go talk to Cersei.”

Oh that noble fool. What a foolish fool. This dumb fool, who CAN’T be smart.

Look, even Tyrion gives him quizzical looks. Because Jon Snow is just so dumb.

I think Jon fully intended to talk to Cersei and tell her that his pledge to Dany is a ruse. Yes, I think that’s what happened. I don’t think it’s a plot point that can be proven or disproven - but everything about what I’ve said above led me to this.

Jon just refused to say that he wouldn’t fight and try to kill Cersei after the war in the North - and I’m also supposed to believe that he then really thought he could go reason with her? No, no. I think there’s a much more plausible explanation.

Jon really really wanted to tell Cersei the truth.

That his pledge to Dany meant nothing. That he desperately needs her to beat the Night King. That all of this is foolish and petty and a waste of time.

Why would he tell Cersei the truth? Because it’s COMPLETELY in both of their interest for Dany to come North and for Cersei to agree to a truce. I am totally confident that this scenario could have convinced Cersei.

Let me go over it. Assume I’m right. Assume Jon wants to bring Dany North and he also has no intention of honoring his pledge. You can see how this could work out splendidly.

Jon gets what he wants in Dany coming North and an understanding with Cersei that he will not follow through with his pledge. This would totally appeal to Cersei and be a huge incentive for her to cooperate. We know Cersei was fine with the truce. She wanted it, actually. She said so before the summit. A pause button was fine. She tried to get extra benefits by getting Jon to also promise he’d stay out of the conflict. But to be clear - Jon’s lie/non-lie meant nothing because Cersei wanted the truce and she also intends on breaking the truce.

But in this scenario - she’s getting exactly what she wants and Jon gets exactly what he wants. If Cersei spills the beans, Dany is re-focused on killing her Westerosi enemies, Dany won’t allow Cersei the breathing room she wanted, and she risks a quick resolution by the burning of the city.

So Cersei would almost definitely keep quiet....and why might Jon ever try to talk Cersei into a truce if he doesn’t care about the war, wanted Dany to come North, and generally hates Cersei and the Lannisters?

Because: (back to my earlier conclusion) Jon realized he absolutely cannot get Dany to come North if she’s still at “war” with Cersei. She won’t make that sacrifice. He needs Dany North. The ONLY way to get that to happen is by getting a truce with Cersei - but in the moment when Cersei cornered him, she unknowingly forced him into a decision that put the truce at risk. In this situation, it absolutely makes sense that Jon would lie during the summit then want to go talk to Cersei and tell her the truth.

Because Jon just lied. And it almost killed any chance of getting Dany up North.

The thing Jon says next is so fascinating under this scope:

“But when enough people make false promises, words stop meaning anything. Then there are no more answers, only better and better lies. And lies won’t help us in this fight.”

“And lies won’t help us in this fight.”

Look - maybe Jon’s life motto has always been “tell the truth...always” but this is on the heels of Jon TRYING to tell the truth to Dany over and over and over again over the course of the season and being refuse each time.

Maybe Jon Snow lied on that boat. Really for the first time with Dany, he lied. And he felt shitty about it. And then because of that ONE LIE - he was forced to lie again in public to support his first lie.

“Only better and better lies.”

Do you see how this could totally fit the dialogue? He’s speaking from experience! But he can’t just say “I did lie! Ok! I don’t give a shit about going ever again after this!”

Jon already lied once and it put him in a position to have to lie again and the second lie DIDN’T HELP HIM GET DANY NORTH. It was a completely unintended consequence for Jon. And his deep shame for lying the first time was only magnified when he was forced to lie again and torpedo the summit.

And he’s suffering for it. He hates this. He needed to be smarter than Robb and Ned, so he was. And now he’s wrapped up in this game. And he hates the game.

This completely echoes Stannis’ moral dilemma in his pursuit of the crown.

Do you ever wonder why Jon looks so freaking depressed especially in these last couple episodes? Because he hates this....but it’s what must be done.

This boy is dying to speak his mind but he can’t. He just can’t. Everything he’s done since arriving at Dragonstone is building to getting Dany to come North.

He’s done EVERYTHING he can.

And it his shame is that he failed to get Dany to forget about Cersei - in large part because he LIED HIS WAY INTO THAT HAPPENING.

What does this do to the way you watch the Theon scene? DAAAAMMMMNNNN.

“You risked everything to tell an enemy the truth.”

Wow. He risked everything to tell an enemy a LIE.

Jon pauses for a beat to consider his words. Like there’s something he wants to say. That he’s wanted to say for quite awhile...yet he can’t.

“We went down there to make peace.” - then why did you torpedo that truce? Was peace with Cersei the reason you told her that you were NOT going to make peace with her after the war?

“...and it seems to me, we need to be honest with each other if we’re going to fight beside each other.”

Jon’s bent the knee. He’s supposedly fallen in love with Dany. He’s secured the truce. Why does he think everything is so tenuous? His “truth” would have just put that all at risk. Everyone on team!Dany wanted Jon to lie because he ruined their chance at peace. He should be proud that it worked out anyway.

Flip his damn lines. He’s living a lie. A lie he hates.

“...always the right step.”

“It’s not. It may seem that way from the outside but...I promise you, it’s not true.”

I mean....damn. Jon’s mini confession. He is not always taking the right step. He lied to Dany. He lied again when cornered to support the first lie. It almost ruined everything. He got himself murdered by his own brothers. He went south to Dragonstone and now he’s suffering the consequences.

Someone hug Jon Snow.

Now to add one last layer. It was shown that Sansa was playing Littlefinger in this scene. She was also already confronted with the plot of a forced-scroll pledging support for a false monarch.

She JUST HAD THIS SITUATION BEFORE. She did what she had to do to survive. Arya even SAYS:

Which Sansa knows doesn’t mean she wrote the scroll believing Joffrey to be King and Robb to be a traitor. We as an audience know this. And yet Sansa is supposedly upset that Jon bent the knee like this.

While never saying anything negative to Littlefinger about Jon after Jon had left, suddenly Sansa is so angry.

“He’s bent the knee.”

“He’s never listened to me.”

“This is what he always does.”

What if. Sansa knows. At least somewhat.

Sansa sees this for what it is. Jon’s been forced to write to her supporting Dany. It even says Cersei is coming along. Big red flag for Sansa. She also knows what LF wants. She knows that he wants her to feel vulnerable and isolated. She knows he’s tried to wedge her and Jon already. So imagine she uses that.

Littlefinger takes the bait. “Great! She feels betrayed by Jon. She’s scared of Arya. I will push her to seize the crown and to kill Arya.”

THEN SANSA DECIDES THIS IS THE MOMENT TO KILL LITTLEFINGER.

He showed his true cards. His last mistake was falling for Sansa’s play that she was feeling betrayed by Jon because of his scroll when she JUST HAD THE SAME SITUATION HERSELF.

My tinfoil conclusion:

Honorably honorable Jon Snow lied to Dany on the boat. Then he had to lie again at the Dragonpit - he already hated lying but then the second lie almost ruined everything he worked towards. He wanted to talk to Cersei personally. To tell her the truth: that he never wanted to bend the knee and that she needs to agree to the truce and he’ll give her what she wanted in return: staying neutral. He couldn’t do it any other way because he needed Dany to believe that he’d bent the knee and would fight for her. Sansa recognized at the very least that Jon was under pressure. He wrote the weirdest scroll ever. She also recognized that Littlefinger would be more of a threat than ever. Either he would convince the northern lords to uncrown Jon, or he would find out that Jon’s loyalty to Dany is a facade and would scheme against Jon through Dany. Sansa allowed LF to be comfortable in thinking she was upset with Jon. He floated the idea of usurping Jon’s crown and having Arya killed. That’s all she needed to decide that the time had come for Littlefinger to face justice.

I don’t believe it either, Littlefinger.

You have no idea how right you might be.

“A cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd. From a smoking tower, a great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire. . . . mother of dragons, slayer of lies . . .” ~Dany IV, ACOK

#political jon theory #political jon meta #political jon #jonsa #jon x sansa #anti targaryen restoration #anti j0nerys

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