#a ceasefire must involve both sides ceasing to fire

[edenfenixblogs]

2 am rant cuz I can’t sleep:

I’ve stated repeatedly that I’m pro-Palestine and pro-peace, so I obviously want a two sided, negotiated ceasefire and permanent peace for all. I’ve repeatedly stated that I do not condone the degree of heavy bombing taking place in Gaza.

But it’s currently 2:15 in the morning and I am haunted. I’m haunted by the fact that the world saw the brutal attack on Jews and celebrated. I’m haunted by the number of high l-profile celebrities who felt moved to speak out for Palestine — wearing flags and pins and signing demands for Israel to stop bombing, but who said nothing about the dead and tortured and kidnapped Jews.

Yes, what is happening in Palestine is and continues to be a tragedy.

But apparently what happened and is happening to Jews worldwide and Israelis of all religions simply isn’t. At least not enough of one. Not enough of one to move these high-profile folks to speak out for us. Not enough of a tragedy to say the names of the hostages, including one forced to give birth while kidnapped by terrorists. Not enough of a tragedy to condemn the violence happening against Jews. Not enough to speak out on behalf of a 20-year-old singer made to fear for her life because she dared to be from Israel and sing about her own trauma instead of, idk, bursting into flame or shutting up or whatever the mob wanted her to do.

No. What happens to us isn’t a tragedy. It’s a nuisance. It’s a nuisance to have to care about Jews. It gets in the way of everyone else feeling good about their “radical activism” and self-aggrandizing bravery. People of all levels and types of fame. All of whom say they only want peace and an end to pain. Yet when they mention pain, it’s always and only the Palestinian flag. When they want a ceasefire, it’s always an only in reference to Palestine. But they wouldn’t be caught dead asking for an end to Hamas or Hezbollah bombs or even acknowledging that they exist. All calls for peace involve asking Israel to lay down arms but no call for anyone attack Israel, Israelis, or Jews worldwide to do the same.

From large creators to small creators to people in day to day life, non-Jews around the world have made clear that it would be more convenient for them if we Jews just died. If we stopped ever defending ourselves or speaking up or being sad in public.

The vast majority of people speaking out would or will view this post as a justification of violence. But it’s not. It’s a condemnation of complicity from people who claim to care about peace. It is a condemnation of those who claim to be against antisemitism yet refuse to listen when Jews point out how they are contributing to and spreading more antisemitism. People and institutions worldwide have failed Jews everywhere.

Cats Blanchett

Mark Ruffalo

Billie Eilish

Viola Davis

Lena Heady

Susan Sarandon

Ava DuVernay

Hozier

Sara Ramirez

Annie Lennox

Cynthia Nixon

Angelina Jolie

Multiple UN groups and resolutions

College students and professors across the world

Friends I’ve had for 8 years who don’t even respond to messages that I have moved out of state or even spoken to me in at least five months

So many people who are so eager to read every bit of pro-Palestine news that exists and condemn every action from Israel.

And yet…

Before the bombings. Before the reprisals. Before all the violence from Israel: where were they? All these people who so desperately beg for peace (as defined by the end of Israeli aggression only): where were they when it was just dead Jews? Where were the Instagram posts and educational content and in depth analyses of Israeli trauma and history? Where were the condemnations of Hamas? Where were those who are moved to speak for anyone and everyone but Jews?

Are we really supposed to believe any of you actually want peace? When you chant for the globalization of terror tactics that traumatized a generation of Israeli Jews? When you fail to acknowledge Jewish history in any way except to minimize it?

Before the bombing campaign, where were the red carpet statement pins and gowns featuring Jewish stars?

How are we Jews anywhere in the world literally ever supposed to believe that you’re not actively cheering for our deaths? Maybe not in front of our faces, but certainly behind our backs. We know. We know you’re afraid to be less than tactful in front of us, but that you describe our rapes and murders and social exclusion and kidnappings as “unfortunate but necessary.”

I’m reminded of when Israel was first created. At a time where every Jew on earth was traumatized directly because the Holocaust firsthand, Britain left the territory of mandatory Palestine and the UN allowed for the creation of a Jewish state. And then proceeded to heckle the traumatized survivors for handling its creation poorly. The Nakba is a tragedy and an outrage and I’ll never deny that.

But…y’all are no different from the people who stood on the sidelines as Israel was first created. Why was it up to an actively traumatized people who had very recently (and after a continuous 2,000 year period of expulsions and pogroms and murders) been slaughtered on an industrial scale to somehow create a perfect and stable government in a land where people despised them?

The world needs to own up to the fact that everything that ever went wrong in Israel’s creation is a direct result of the continuous and still ongoing contempt for Jews by all the other countries that could have stepped in to help and provide Jews with a guarantee of safety at any time in the last 2,000 years in general but also since 1934 specifically. And you didn’t. Your great grandparents and grandparents and parents all didn’t do jack shit. And you are following in their footsteps. You are all doing just as they did: standing on the sidelines and heckling the Jews you don’t like for fighting back too aggressively.

But what exactly have you or anyone else done to help Jews in your communities or in Israel to not feel like caged animals forced to fight for survival? Like wild beasts you let loose for slaughter in a coliseum for your own enjoyment? At what point have you worked to provide Jews with other options? How have you made the Jews in your life feel safe or seen during this time? How have you started to deconstruct the harmful anti-Jewish bias you inherited from the people you love?

Is it ok that Netanyahu and the Likud government is bombing Palestine to the extent it is currently doing? Of course not. And I’ll never say otherwise.

But aside from yelling “hey stop it!” at Israel or “you’re complicit!” at Jews who fail to join your chanting, what exactly have you done at any point since this started to make the world safer for any of us?

Because from what I can see, the vast majority of you have done nothing. And every Jew I’ve spoken to in the last half a year has seen the exact same nothing.

Too many of you are too concerned with being on the right side of history. Most of you aren’t famous actors or musicians or whatever. Most of you are just people. History won’t remember you individually. Who knows what history will say about the movements of which you were a part? My guess is that you’ll be called passionate and outraged and sympathetic, but ultimately disorganized and misguided.

But you know who will remember you? Every Jew you’ve encountered since 10/7. We will remember each individual we saw who celebrated our death or ghosted us or made us feel unwelcome in our own lives.

We will remember you forever. And not fondly.

[laz-laz-ace-pilot]

So I got a response from my MP about the genocide in Gaza yesterday.

Some context; my MP is Tobias Ellwood, who is largely known for two things; being the Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for the Middle East (this will be relevant later) and trying to save a policeman's life during an attack on Westminster. More recently though, he's been better known for trying to reintroduce conscription, describing his £90,000 salary as 'counting the pennies', running over a neighbour's cat, and trying to ban protests at his home.

Under increasing pressure, he sent out a generalised email yesterday in response to people calling for a ceasefire and well...

... Thank you for your email, I have received a large volume of correspondences on this matter and hope my response can set out my position in more detail. Firstly, you are right to highlight the appalling situation in Gaza caused by the Israeli Prime Minister’s cack-handed and ill thought out invasion. Hamas has lost its right to represent the people of Gaza – but this is not the way towards securing a two state solution. It has simply led to escalation. I warned Israel (after the barbaric attacks on the 7th October but BEFORE the IDF tanks rolled in) NOT to invade until there was a clear plan of governance and security for which any military operation can work towards that minimised the danger to innocent lives and ensured the removal of Hamas. I even wrote a plan that might be considered – published in Politico which I invite you to read: https://www.politico.eu/article/israel-gaza-hamas-uk-benjamin-netanyahu-we-need-a-plan/ The scale of collateral damage is shocking, and I’m pleased international voices (including the UK) are getting louder in criticising Israel. But the only country with the ability to alter Israel’s behaviour is the United States, and behind the scenes they are making their views heard but more needs to be done. On the question of arms sales, I’ve asked for more information on what is being sold. The call to block all arms sales is understandable – but it could have wider economic consequences. Licences are valued at £500m versus overall trade with Israel (including many businesses from Dorset) worth £9bn. Would such action in cutting arms sale alter Netanyahu’s behaviour? Or would we lose precious leverage in speaking and influencing privately? Away from Netanyahu’s appalling response - Israel is an important UK ally and rare democratic state in a troubled part of the world. It requires wise decision making to leverage our influence efficiently. I’d prefer to see consideration of halting specific military exports IF they are involved with IDF’s operations in Gaza. I am seeking clarity in what that is from my relevant ministerial colleagues.

UK funding for UNWRA has NOT been cut. I have checked with the Minister and there was a question raised about FUTURE funding – but right now there is no question of programmes stopping because UK money has been switched off. I have made my views clear. The speed in which threats to turn off future funding were made was ill-considered. Over 13,000 UNRWA staff work in Gaza. Involvement by a dozen with HAMAS (now being investigated by the UN Chief) should not jeopardise the critical work of the most senior UN agency working in such desperate conditions.

Finally, the call for an immediate and permanent ceasefire. Yes, I would like to support this. It’s where this terrible conflict must eventually go. But having been involved in a few cease fires, whilst serving in the British Army, could I spell out some issues which must be in place at the same time.

Cease fires are not something you shout from afar and they just happen.

A Cease fire is the title to a list of agreements BOTH sides have signed up to - that results in a cessation of fighting in order to give space for other activities to take place.

If BOTH warring parties do not support a cease fire (and conditions) – but are intent on continuing the fighting it will not happen. Both HAMAS and Israel are at present intent to keep fighting.

Fighting can be stopped by a third party/force which marches in the separate sides and enforce the peace. I suspect this is NOT what you are calling for.

The details of any ceasefire are almost always arbitrated by a third party / parties. And usually come after a number of rounds of discussions. Such discussions are happening in Egypt and Qatar – but to date little progress has been made.

Details of any ceasefire will include:

Time frames of commencement of ceasefire.

3rd party monitoring teams (UK might play a role here).

No fly zones, buffer zones, humanitarian corridors

Emergency procedures to quash any breaches by individuals seeking to see the ceasefire fail.

agreed incentives to help the cease fire last (outside funding/ hostage release /humanitarian support infrastructure repair) for activities to take place to build trust.

6. All the above supported by an international legal framework – usually in the form of a UN resolution. 7. Agreement on round table discussions to discuss the long term solutions. As you can see a ‘cease fire’ is simple to demand from afar – less simple to implement in practice. And easy to challenge Western governments about why one is not in place. It is worth remembering that such agreements are occasionally signed up to as opportunity for one side or both re-group and re-arm which is something we must be particularly weary of. I hope, if you have read this far – you will appreciate the context of an Opposition party – calling for a vote on a ceasefire. Perhaps it’s an important political statement. But as I highlight above there are practical implications, which, if I am honest are not discussed in detail. The discussion then boils down to an over-simplistic binary position on supporting the people of Gaza without consideration of the magnitude of obstacles to overcome if a meaningful ceasefire was to be introduced. I so dislike such binary and divisive politics, yet right now that’s how the debate on Wednesday is shaping up. We should be better than this. I will push for a cease fire in the context I’ve outlined above. I will think carefully how I will vote. If this is just about having another pop at the Government for political gain – I will probably stay away. The people of Gaza deserve better. I plan visit Rafah in the next couple of weeks. Thanks again for getting in touch. I apologise about the long response. There is nothing simple about conflict and indeed ending it.

Kind regards, Tobias

I just... I don't think I could write a more condescending, twisted or imperialist response if I tried. The bit about the not suspending arms deals, the 'explanation' of ceasefires/ cease fires, the grammatical and spelling errors. I've been trying to write a concise response for the last hour and I just can't. The only positive is that the growing pressure does seen to be getting to him.

There is another vote on a ceasefire today. Please keep pressuring your MPs. It is slow work but its getting there.

[blue-mint-winter]

Star Trek Enterprise s2e15 Cease Fire

In this episode Archer must summon all of his diplomatic powers to help in establishing a ceasefire between Andorians and Vulcans. It was all Shran's idea.

They're fighting over a planet that was terraformed and settled by Andorians, but it's right on the border with Vulcan territory so Vulcans occupied it for 100 years. It is quite a tricky situation.

Shran is pretty serious about negotiations but his subordinate is arguing against it, she doesn't believe it will work. In exchange for release of one Vulcan prisoner Archer convinces ambassador Soval to come down with him on the planet to commence the talks with Shran, however their shuttle is shot down. I quite like how for a while it's ambiguous who shot it down, both sides are suspicious.

Soval was an intelligence officer on this planet years ago before his career change. His conversation with T'Pol about her choice to stay on Enterprise was interesting too. She admits she enjoys working with humans and he even remarks how her accent changed.

Archer fights off the attackers, it's Shran's subordinate. When Shran appears, Archer is pointing a phaser at her, so it doesn't look good, but his word and the evidence is enough to convince Shran that she started it. All in all, I really liked her character, she had a certain flair when she argued so passionately.

Meanwhile, Andorian ships arrive in the orbit and Trip parks Enterprise between both sides in order to prevent the conflict. He did his part well too.

Shran and Soval manage to sign a ceasefire, both sides compromise and have a drink together. Soval even "praises" Archer for his involvement.

All in all, this episode was another look into the Vulcan ways and how they're regarded by Andorians, it seems to me that the main problem for Vulcans is that they lack compassion, however they aren't hopeless and with time will get there.

Great episode.

[eachainn]

Pretense

Julius paced up and down the room, glancing back at his desk every time he passed. He never expected the treaty on it to change, but somehow he was always surprised by it. And it infuriated him.

Julius reached out to snap up the treaty on the next pass, staring at the note attached to it as he started his pacing again.

These are the terms as determined at the meeting of allied and enemy forces at Wiesswolfe Castle. The treaty signing will take place there within two weeks. As a favor to Lady Marianne, you will not be present as I cannot guarantee the same safety standards that allowed you to come to the EU a second time.

Schneizel

Julius hissed out a breath between his teeth, crumpling the note and throwing it to the side. Damn Schneizel for his softness and damn his mother for interfering. This was supposed to be his moment to shine, his moment to present the terms of surrender, not a treaty.

Britannia had the advantage. In a few months they could have the forces of the EU cowed and ready to accept any terms they were given. It could have been sooner if Schneizel had let him execute the Euro-Britannian nobles who had been dragging their feet about the war. While what they were doing wasn’t technically treason, it was suspicious enough that they didn’t want to get involved. As far as Julius was concerned, they didn’t need to investigate further. They were still Britannian no matter where they lived, which meant that they had to listen to the emperor’s orders. Coming from the princes, the orders had the same power.

But Schneizel had reversed all of his orders and then dared to tell him that he needed to learn diplomacy.

Julius laughed, throwing the treaty away from him. He watched as the papers scattered on the floor, not bothering to slow down as he walked over them. There was something satisfying about hearing them crumple under his boots as he walked. This was Schneizel’s peace he was stepping on, a peace made of weakness that could be easily broken if the EU decided to push. As far as he could see, it relied on the EU being afraid of Charles, but his father was not young. If things went the way Julius suspected, no one would push for the throne, leaving Odysseus to claim it. Then everything that his father had worked for, everything that he had worked for would fall apart.

He cursed under his breath, turning on his heel and starting down the other side of the room.

He could see the way things would go with Odysseus as the king. Those that had the knack for it, like Schneizel, would try to control him. Those that didn’t would try to steal the throne from him. There would be no stopping the war if Odysseus got on the throne, and Britannia would lose everything. The only way to ensure that the empire stayed strong, that they all stayed safe, was to make sure a powerful prince got on the throne. One who wasn’t afraid to use the might of Britannia.

But to do that, he would have to gain recognition, to gain supporters. And he wasn’t to gain anything doing things Schneizel’s way.

He paused, resting a hand on his hip, drumming his fingers there as he thought it through.

Schneizel had told him enough to go on. Wiesswolfe castle would be easy enough to find and he could get the exact date of the treaty. That, of course, would be if he failed in his original plan. If he was trying to make trouble at the signing itself then it was already too late.

It was just a matter of choosing what to do, there were many ways he could cause the treaty to collapse.

Julius made his way back over to his desk, feeling himself settle. He knew how to get out of the situation despite Schneizel and his mother’s meddling. Julius shivered at the thought.

His mother was becoming weak, which was a shame. She was been one of the strongest knights of the empire once, the Knight of Six. Julius didn’t know what had changed, but he wasn’t going to let it stand. He wouldn’t be stopped by her worry, not when it was misplaced. Schneizel would never let anything happen to him, nor would Sir Kururugi.

He paused with his hand raised, turning the thought over in his head. He didn’t have a guard or a staff to serve him, a horrible oversight on his part. Then again, he hadn’t needed it, not when Schneizel had provided both and made it clear that he was just an observer in all of this. But what he did have was the one knight that accompanied him. Better yet, a Knight of the Round. The laws of Britannia were the only things that could touch them, and even then it was just a mark on their record. Sir Bradley must have had thousands of them and no action had been taken. Besides, it was war and such things could be forgiven in the service of Britannia. It was easy enough to make sure that the records disappeared.

Julius hunched over his laptop, searching through the latest troop positions and lines. If he was going to make this strike then it had to be good. He would only get one shot at it, even if he made sure to send Sir Kururugi out without his personal Knightmare. That would make it all the better, because it would take a while for it to come back to him directly. And, by then, he would have found a way for the situation to be patched up to his liking and the records would have disappeared. Maybe he could even wrap some of the same Euro-Britannian nobles into it as a warning to the others. The empire was not in the habit of being denied.

Julius chuckled to himself, looking at all the military positions. If he was going to do that, then it had to be somewhere close to Euro-Britannian forces, which would give him the added bonus of having reinforcements without having to do more than have a set of orders. There were plenty of orders of knights who would jump at the chance for real battle. He had heard good things about the Ashra squad. If he planned things right, he would get the Knights of St. Michael tangled up in the breaking of the cease fire, and they were deeply connected to the nobility of Euro-Britannia.

He leaned his head on his hand, looking through discarded battle plans. Any of them would do, even if it took some small adjustments. He drummed his fingers against the desk, letting the ideas run through his head.

Breaking the ceasefire would be more than enough to get the EU questioning Britannia. That would certainly delay the treaty, but he wouldn’t get another chance to disrupt completely because Schneizel and the others would be suspicious. It would be better to overdo it than to be cautious. With that being the case, it would be best to attack civilians as well and along a front already in place. Then it would look like Britannia was preparing to start up the war again while the EU relaxed. That was the best strategy.

Julius hummed to himself, smiling as he worked through the formerly most active fronts. He would start there, along with a simple requisition notice for a standard Knightmare. Sir Kururugi would be able to pilot it, Julius was sure of that.

He pushed away from his desk, staring at the map of the front as his plan settled neatly into place. All he would need to do was set the wheels in motion. Sir Kururugi would listen to his orders and then he would need a wild card, someone that would enjoy the destruction. All of that was just too easy.

Julius looked up as the door to his office slid open, smiling as Sir Kururugi stepped inside. His smile flickered a bit when he saw that the knight was still wearing the black and silver cape of mourning. Sir Kururugi had rarely appeared the full formal dress that required the cape, but his suit and been enough and the presence of the Lancelot on the field had worked just as well. Everyone knew which Knightmare belonged to a Knight of the Round.

Sir Kururugi bowed his head, hesitating there before dropping into the full bow that was required. Julius smiled at that. His brother had taught Sir Kururugi bad habits, so it was beyond time that he remembered his place.

Julius let him kneel for a moment before making a small motion. “Rise, Sir Kururugi.”

“Thank you, your highness.” The knight got to his feet, keeping his gaze on the ground. “I came to ask your permission for leave.”

Julius tensed. “Leave?”

“Only a day and I wouldn’t be going far. There’s going to be a ceremony, in remembrance of your brother.”

Julius swallowed, his excitement about his plan sinking away. “Oh, it’s that time already.”

“It’s been a year, your highness.”

That was more than enough time to forget someone. He’d put Clara behind him in that time, and Lelouch was barely a memory until someone else brought him up. It was better to move forward and not leave weaknesses like regret or sorrow. Better to channel those emotions into something else because he couldn’t bring the dead back. In Lelouch’s case, he didn’t want to. He’d won in the way that Britannian princes had always won the things that they wanted.

Julius leaned back, staring at the careful battle plans. One day wouldn’t ruin anything, he needed at least that much to get things set up. The problem was if he really wanted to allow Sir Kururugi that.

Sir Kururugi was his now. His mother and father had given him the Knight of Seven to command. Beyond that, there was his game to consider. The winner was the one who secured Sir Kururugi’s affections. Without Lelouch around, it should have been easy. No one could love a dead person, but Sir Kururugi was persisting in it.

Didn’t he understand that this wasn’t how the game was played? He might have lost the royal favor of one prince but another was offering it openly and eagerly.

Julius frowned at Sir Kururugi, watching as the knight took a step forward, Sir Kururugi looking at him directly now. “Please, your highness, it’s for Lelouch.”

Julius stood up, not bothering to stop the chair from toppling behind him. Even the sound was distant as it clattered to the ground. It was unimportant in the end, especially when compared to the problem at hand.

“You mean, Prince Lelouch.”

Sir Kururugi’s mouth opened and then shut, his head falling forward. It wasn’t a disagreement, but it wasn’t an apology either, and that galled him. And, from the way that Sir Kururugi wasn’t offering anything else, he didn’t intend to. That made everything worse, because it was another one of Lelouch’s allowances. His brother had allowed Sir Kururugi much, too much. Julius didn’t intend to continue the pattern. Sir Kururugi was his, and so it was up to him to bring him to heel.

“No.” The word came out louder than he meant it to, but Julius didn’t want to take it back. He couldn’t with the way that rage bubbled up. “You don’t have permission.”

“But your highness-”

“Nor do you have permission to question me! You are under my command and my orders are final!” Julius slammed his hand down on the desk. “You do not have permission to take leave. You will not go to that ceremony. That’s an order!”

Sir Kururugi swayed in place, Julius expecting to see the same blank expression that the knight always wore. It was the careful deference that should always come with a knight. Instead Sir Kururugi looked furious at him. That expression slid away, but it didn’t go back to normal. Instead it turned into something like cold fury.

Julius straightened his shoulders, ready to give more orders to bring Sir Kururugi back into line when the knight bowed. It wasn’t the full, formal bow that was his due, but a quick one from the waist. Then, Sir Kururugi was turning around and walking out of the door before he was dismissed. Julius could only gape after him as Sir Kururugi disappeared out the door.

He was tempted to order him back, but the words wouldn’t leave his mouth. It was too much like begging, and he would not beg. Sir Kururugi was his, he had won.

Julius curled his hands into fists, trying to ignore the way that he shook. He would just have to make sure that the lesson was learned, and soon. He couldn’t have Sir Kururugi ruining his plans, especially when they were for Britannia. If that was the case, then he was like the Euro-Britannian nobles and should die for his refusal. But Julius wouldn’t jump there just yet. As a Knight of the Round Sir Kururugi could be forgiven. He just needed time and the right reminders to come back around, and Julius would make sure that he got that.

He sighed and turned around to right his chair. He made sure to keep the motion deliberate, bringing himself back under control. He could worry about Sir Kururugi later, once he was back under control and had a plan, both for disrupting the treaty and for the wayward knight.

---

Suzaku pulled off his jacket as he walked through the hallway by the living quarters. He sighed and pulled the jacket close to him, hugging it tight. He hadn’t known how much he had needed that, the quiet of the church, the words shared quietly between them. Schneizel’s presence had been expected but his participation hadn’t been. It was just another reminder that he hadn’t been the only one to have lost something precious when Lelouch had died. All that was missing was Lady Marianne, Nunnally and Rolo’s voices, but he was sure that they had their own kind of remembrance. It just made him wish that he was back there with them.

He patted the pockets of his jacket, needing something to do with his hands. It didn’t feel like a year since Lelouch had died, it still felt too fresh. At least he had stopped looking for Lelouch around every corner, but there were times when he was half awake that he would expect to roll over and find the prince. The worst were when he’d dream of how it had been and wake up still hearing Lelouch’s voice, but have nothing else.

He shuddered, clutching the jacket closer. That too would pass, maybe in a year and maybe more. He would just have to keep pushing through it. Just like he would have to push through standing guard over Julius.

According to what Schneizel said, it was only a few more weeks. By the time the treaty was signed, he and Julius would be on their way back. It would mean that Julius would have to wait for another assignment. Suzaku might have to ask Schneizel to see that it happened quickly, or else he was sure that Julius would become unbearable. That was one thing that he’d learned about the prince, it was better to keep Julius occupied or he would start to snap at everyone. That might have been the reason for his overreaction earlier. Or maybe it was something else. Julius hadn’t been too happy about the treaty, and Suzaku couldn’t figure out why. It was a victory, an end to the war.

Suzaku frowned as he thought it over before pushing the idea aside. He was tired, worn out from the ceremony and sure to get some kind of lecture from going against Julius’ orders. It wasn’t like he’d skipped his other duties to go, Schneizel had purposefully canceled everything so anyone could come. And a good number did, everyone except…

Suzaku stopped dead, staring down the hallway. He’d been so busy with the ceremony that he hadn’t really thought about who had been there. He’d scanned the room as a matter of habit, but he hadn’t thought about it, not until now. Schneizel and Kanon had been expected, as had the rest of Schneizel’s staff. There had been a few older officers who had known Marianne, and then himself. But the one person who should have been there hadn’t shown up.

It was strange considering how close the twins had been, at least before Julius had gone to the EU. He hadn’t gotten more time to observe the two of them after that, because he’d been focused with Lelouch going to Area 11. And, afterward, he’d been mourning, the whole family had. Except for maybe Julius.

Suzaku shook his head, trying to nudge the suspicion away. People mourned differently, he knew that. Julius might mourn by throwing himself into his work and getting snappish. After all, he had always seemed to resist shows of emotion. Marianne had waved it off, but Lelouch had called it their father’s influence. Suzaku could believe either, which made a likely enough explanation for him.

Even so, he couldn’t shake off the feeling. Maybe it had meant that he had finally adjusted to the thinking in Britannia, or maybe it was his own dislike of the prince coming through.

Suzaku sighed, letting the thoughts drift away. He didn’t want to spend the night mired in politics, he just wanted to curl up and sleep until he was needed in the morning. If he was lucky, then it would be a while.

As he walked, he glanced from side to side, automatically scanning the hall. As expected, the light in Schneizel office was on, but Suzaku was not about to duck in. There was every chance that Schneizel was looking for the same solitude he was, or continuing to work on the treaty. Even for a day like today, it was normal.

What wasn’t was the light still on in Julius’ office. Suzaku slowed down, tempted to just walk past. He didn’t want to deal with Julius just yet, nor until the prince was safely back on the plane and headed back to Britannia. But it was unusual behavior, and Suzaku couldn’t imagine what Julius was up doing.

Suzaku slowed down, about to bypass the office and take the long way back to his rooms when he heard someone shift inside.

“Sir Kururugi?”

Suzaku sighed, but stepped into the doorway. “Yes, your highness?”

Julius didn’t answer immediately, and it wasn’t hard to see why. The papers that had been on the desk were now on the floor, the surface cleared for the bottle of wine and glass. The glass had remains of wine in it, but it looked like it had been discarded for the moment. Julius was clutching the neck of the bottle, his grip surprisingly unsteady for the amount that was still in the bottle.

Suzaku stared at Julius for a moment before dropping into the full bow, closing his eyes when he heard Julius sigh. It was the smallest things that kept the prince happy, which were all the things that he felt like Lady Marianne and Lelouch had trained him out of.

Suzaku risked a glance up, watching as Julius settled back in his seat. The prince played with the bottle of wine for a moment before setting it aside. Julius motioned for him to get up, Suzaku watching him for a moment before getting to his feet. Julius was quick to motion for him to step forward, Suzaku glancing at the door that had been left open. That too wasn’t like Julius.

He approached the desk cautiously, stopping a good distance from it. It seemed to be enough for Julius because the prince smiled and nodded at him. “You went.”

It was obvious what Julius was talking about. Suzaku didn’t bother to try and lie, he just nodded. “I did. Prince Schneizel invited me.”

“Of course.” Julius made a vague motion with his hand. “He is our superior in this, and you can’t ignore an order from him.”

There was a bit of bitterness to Julius’ voice, Suzaku tensing at it. If Julius noticed, the prince didn’t show it. He just stood up and stared walking around his desk. “I guess he thought he was doing you a favor, and maybe he was. Schneizel has a way of reading people. It must be why he didn’t invite me.”

“But you were welcome.”

“I would have refused.” Julius leaned heavily on the desk, his gaze jerking away. “I’m not one to air my sorrows in a group. I prefer to do it alone.” He nodded over at the wine. “And I would have continued.”

“Apologizes, but I saw the door open.”

Julius looked at the door, blinking at it like he was surprised to see it like that before he shook his head. “I must have…left it like that.”

It seemed to take him effort to talk, something that made Suzaku hesitate. He’d never seen Julius like this, the tight strings that held the prince together starting to come loose. It reminded him more of Lelouch, of when the two of them had gotten to know each other. Lelouch had always been willing to let the careful mask of prince drop, but Julius held his close, like it was the only thing keeping him safe or together.

Julius stumbled a few more steps forward before leaning back against his desk with a groan. He stared at the desk before shaking his head. “As you can see, I’m fine. You probably saw all the guards on your way in so…” Julius waved to the hall, the motion surprisingly steady. “You can consider yourself dismissed for the day.”

“But-”

“I will overlook this conduct, just this once.” Julius smiled at him, almost managing to look like he was in on some joke. “Call it a favor between the two of us.”

Suzaku just stopped himself from raising an eyebrow. It felt too casual, something that Julius had never stooped to in the entire time that Suzaku had known him. It all felt wrong.

He swayed in place, not sure if he was tempted to leave and put the conversation behind them or search the room. There wasn’t anywhere to hide in the office, Suzaku had checked it plenty of times himself. Besides, he couldn’t think of an enemy that would convince Julius to act friendly to him. If anything, it was the wine, except the bottle looked like maybe one glass had been poured out of it.

His gaze flicked back to Julius as the prince stumbled forward. Julius caught himself on one of the chairs before shoving himself away. Suzaku leaned back as Julius got closer, the prince reaching out for him. For a moment, it looked like he was about to fall, and it was instinct for Suzaku to reach out to catch him.

Julius grunted slightly, leaning against him. Suzaku expected the prince to push away, but Julius remained leaning against him, apparently content to remain there. Suzaku tensed, his gaze jumping back to the barely touched bottle of wine. There was every chance that he was wrong, but he had learned to trust his instincts.

Julius didn’t smell like alcohol.

“You high-” Suzaku went still as he felt Julius’ hand against his neck.

The prince’s hand moved up, Julius’ fingers curling in the hair at the nape of his neck as Julius pulled away slightly. Julius stared at him for a moment, his eyes very focused for one who seemed to be playing at being drunk.

It took a moment for Julius to smile, and it sent a shiver down his spine. Julius seemed to take it as encouragement, his other hand sliding up Suzaku’s chest. “Although, now that you’re here, I can see why some people don’t hide themselves away.”

“Y-your highness, I-” He was stopped by Julius’ finger on his lips. Suzaku recoiled, but Julius followed him, his finger tracing over Suzaku’s lips.

“I think we can do something that will help the both of us. Comfort me.”

Suzaku shoved Julius away, his stomach twisting violently. He barely noticed the prince stumbling back into his desk, he was just filled with revulsion.

He reached up to wipe the back of his hand across his mouth, like that would chase away Julius’ touch. It didn’t work, Suzaku shivering at the memory of the touch.

“That was an order, Sir Kururugi.” Suzaku jerked his gaze up, watching as Julius pushed himself away from the desk. The prince seemed to have given up all pretenses of being drunk. “What’s the matter? You liked it when Lelouch did it to you?”

A cruel smile crossed his face. “Did you think we didn’t know? The two of you made it very obvious from the start. There was not a soul in Aries Villa that couldn’t see what you and my brother were doing…except maybe you. Did you really think that a prince would waste his time with an Eleven without a reason?”

“That’s not-”

“What he told you. I see.” Julius leaned back on the desk, the picture of ease. “You see, we were playing a game. Lelouch and I…we get bored so easily. Or we did. Whichever.”

It felt like a cold hand was squeezing his heart, Suzaku unable to do anything but stare at Julius.

That seemed to be what Julius wanted because his grin widened. “So he never told you? Maybe I should have let you have that. But did you really think that any one of our family would pick out an Eleven like you to favor.”

“Honorary Britannian.” The words came out softly, almost an afterthought of a defense.

Julius huffed and shook his head. “It’s like calling a fruit overripe. It does nothing but give something a pretty title. It means the same thing in the end. The fruit is rotting and you’re just a Number. A quick tumble and nothing more.”

Suzaku shook his head, trying to speak through the horror that held him still. “No, that’s not the truth.”

That finally knocked the grin off of Julius’ face, the prince slumping a bit. He frowned at Suzaku. “How would you know that? You knew my brother for a year, I knew him all of his life.”

Suzaku shook his head, not willing to give Julius that answer. Any conversation that he’d had with Lelouch was going to remain between the two of them, as it should be. Julius had no part in it.

His silence seemed to enrage the prince even more.

Julius slammed a fist onto the desk with a low growl. “He lied to you!”

“No.”

“Yes did! It’s the only way he could have won!” Julius flailed an arm out, not caring that he knocked the bottle of wine and glass over. The bottle tipped to the side, the wine spilling out, but the glass rolled off the table and cracked. The sound was like a gunshot in the quiet, but Julius didn’t bother to look back at it.

Julius shoved himself away from the desk, storming towards him.

Suzaku took a step back  when Julius grabbed for the front of his shirt. Suzaku reached down to unhook Julius’ fingers, but he stopped himself. Julius was still a prince of the empire.

Julius glared up at him, making the motions like he was going to jerk him around, but the prince didn’t manage it. It didn’t matter, because the rage on Julius’ face was enough to keep him pinned in place.

“He only won because he cheated!” Suzaku jerked his head back as spit flew from Julius’ mouth, the prince too far gone to notice. “Like everything else Lelouch did, he cheated at it! The game was to get your attention, not to fuck you.”

Suzaku tipped his chin up. “Would that come later?”

Julius’ upper lip curled, the prince staring at him before shoving him away. “I don’t have to answer you. You’re mine to command.”

“I answer to the emperor.”

“He’s given command of you to me. Besides, I won our game.”

“But Lelouch died…” Suzaku trailed off when he saw the same pleased grin cross Julius’ face. It was not the grin of a grieving brother, it was the grin of someone who had gotten their way. It looked like the triumphant grin that Lelouch would sometimes get when he got his way, a trait that Julius shared. Except that meant that…

Suzaku took a step back, staring at Julius with wide eyes. “You.”

Julius shrugged. “Lelouch cheated, which meant that I could as well. Anything to win.”

Suzaku shook his head at Julius, watching for some kind of sign of regret, or that Julius was joking. He would take either, but Julius didn’t seem to care. He just leaned back on the desk and smirked.

Suzaku was filled with the urge to rush forward and punch Julius’ smug face in, but that wouldn’t accomplish anything. No one would take his word, not even as Knight of Seven. Julius would always win that argument and Suzaku couldn’t stand it. Lady Marianne had told him to watch over Julius, but he just couldn’t not knowing that Julius had been the one to kill Lelouch, and all because of him.

He clenched his hands into fists, staring at the prince. He allowed himself a moment then he turned on his heel and walked out of the office. Suzaku heard Julius call for him, but he ignored it. Julius could shout for him all he wanted, but Suzaku had no intention of coming back. He was not about to stand by a murderer, not when he was going to be treated like a prize and certainly not when it was Lelouch’s killer.

He took a deep breath, looking around the hall before his gaze settled on Schneizel’s office. He was moving before he could really think about what he was doing, all he could remember was that Lelouch had always spoken fondly about Schneizel.

He would never be able to accuse Julius of the crime. For all of his skills and patronage, he was just another Eleven. The best he could do was to be taken away from Julius. Far enough away that he could forget that he had ever heard about the vi Britannia family. As much as it pained him, it seemed to be the best thing he could do.

Suzaku swallowed hard, steeling himself as he knocked on the door. The voices on the other side stopped, Suzaku taking a step back as Kanon peered through the door. Suzaku looked past him towards where Schneizel sat at his desk, the prince looking less putt together than Suzaku had ever seen. His gaze flicked to where a pair of jackets were casually tossed over the only other chair in the room, the seat filled far too much for anyone to have been sitting in it.

Suzaku shrugged it off, focusing on the prince. It was only a matter of time before Julius recovered and came bellowing after him.

He bowed slightly, bracing himself with one hand on the doorway. “There’s something I want to ask you, Prince Schneizel.”

[opedguy]

Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict Raises Alarm

LOS ANGELES (OnlineColumnist.com), Oct. 25, 2020.--Since the official end of the Soviet Union Dec. 26, 1991, a tectonic shift in former Soviet satellites left many countries scrambling for new boundaries much like the end of WW I Nov. 11, 1918, when the Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman Empires were divided up creating new sovereign states in the Europe, Mideast and North Africa.  Armenia earned its independent statehood from the Soviet Union Sept. 21, 1991, much later than Azerbaijan that received its independence from the Russian Czar May 28, 1918, including the now disputed mountainous  Nagorno-Karabakh region, now inhabited largely by Armenians.  No one questions that the disputed territory, claimed as ancient homeland to Armenia, but clearly within the U.N.-approved borders of Azerbaijan.  Meeting at the State Department with 56-year-old Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, the U.S. tried to broker a ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan.        

     Azerbaijan is an oil-rich Muslim country on the Caspian Sea with a vibrant oil industry with a bountiful coastline and tourism industry.  Armenia, in contrast, is a poor landlocked country Armenian Eastern Orthodox country with a large diaspora all over the world.  When you look at the two countries side-by-side, it’s a tale of two cities, one rich the other poor, one with the bright future in Azerbaijan and Armenia struggling to find any possible way to improve its $12.813 billion Gross Domestic Product [GDP], ranked 130, Below Niger and above North Macedonia.  Azerbaijan has a GPD of $41.666 billion, ranked 88, above Tunisia and below Jordan.  Ranked almost four times the GDP of Armenia, Azerbaijan doesn’t need the Nagorno-Karabakh region for its material wealth. Yet the two countries with Turkey’s involvement now find themselves at war in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.        

     Turkey has aided Aszerbaijan supplying arms and troops to shell Stepanakert, rhe regional capital of Nagorno-Karabakh.  Azeri forces shelled Stepanakert with Smerch long-range rockets, a powerful Soviet-era rocket system using cluster-munitions capable of widespread devastation.  It couldn’t be more ironic that Azerbaijan hits Armenian-occupied territory of Russian-made weapons when Russia has a mutual defense pact with Armenia.  Turkey, a member of NATO, finds itself in the middle of conflict potentially with the Russian Federation, not yet coming to Armenia’s defense.  Working on a ceasefire agreement, Pompeo wants to deescalate the situation to find a path to some kind of autonomy agreement between the two warring countries.  Azerbaijan fought a bloody war with Armenia, ending in 1994 with current border arrangements, essentially ceding Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia.        

     Russia tried but failed to broker a ceasefire agreement with Azerbaijan and Armenia, prompting the U.S. to get into the conflict.  “Both must implement a ceasefire and return to substantive negotiations,” Pompeo said, while shells kept exploding in Stepanakert.  Armenians living the Nagorno-Karabakh regions are 100% attached to the land as their ancestral home. “This is my motherland, I’m not going to leave it,” said Georgiy, a resident of Stepankert.  “All people will stand until the last,” attesting to resident’s attachment.  In the neighboring town of Shushi the Holy Savior Cathedral AKA the Ghazanchetsots Cathedral, stands as a religious monument to Armenians’ Eastern Orthodox Church.  Holy Savior Cathedral serves as a hub for Armenian weddings, funeral and other community events, something showing strong ties to the Nagorno-Karabakh region.    

         Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev said the he’s ready to sit down with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyah to negotiate a peace deal.  “We are ready to stop even today,” Aliyev said.  “But unfortunately, Armenia grossly violated the ceasefire . . .if they don’t stop, we will go to the end with the aim of liberating the occupied territories,” warning Aermenia that they risked losing Nagorno-Karabakh region.  Aliyev has a willing partner in Turkey who has an old ax to grind with Armenians whom they blame for the collapse of the Ottoman Empire.  Armenians blame Turkey for an historic genocide killing 1.5 million Armenians in the death marches around 1916, before WW I.  Pompeo finds himself squeezed between an age-old conflict, at the same time, not wanting to see Turkey get more involved prompting Russian President Vladimir Putin to honor his defense treaty with Armenia.     

        Azerbaijan already fought a bloody Nagorno-Karabakh war in 1994 losing 11,557 soldiers, getting nothing from the past conflict other than more death and destruction. Amenia, backed by Russian arms and various mercenaries, battled Azerbaijian to loggerheads, prompting a cease fire agreement without ceding land Armenia.  Turkish President  66-year-old Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that he hoped Ankara and Moscow could broker a lasting peace deal.  Pompeo said that Turkey was making a bad situation worse, supply arms and mercenaries to shell the Nagorno-Karabakh region.  Azeerbaijan President Aliyev knows that Armenia has no intention of leaving the area, deeply entrenched it what settlers think are ancestral Armenian lands.  While Armenian President Pashinyan sees no prospects for peace, Putin could put pressure on Armenia to enter into a lasting ceasefire or peace agreement. 

About the Author  

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

[expatimes]

Armenia, Azerbaijan agree new Nagorno-Karabakh truce: Live

Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed to a humanitarian ceasefire from midnight, both countries said on Saturday night.

The move came after Azerbaijan said 13 civilians were killed in an Armenian missile attack on its second-biggest city, Ganja. The overnight missile raid also wounded dozens of people in their sleep and destroyed a row of homes.

The Armenian defense ministry denied the claim and accused Baku of continuing to shell populated areas inside Nagorno-Karabakh, including Stepanakert, the region's biggest city.

Here are the latest updates on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict:

Saturday, October 17

19:31 GMT - Macron says Armenia-Azerbaijan truce must be respected

French President Emmanuel Macron has welcomed Armenia and Azerbaijan's agreement to a humanitarian ceasefire from midnight and stressed that it should be strictly respected by both parties.

“This ceasefire must be unconditional and strictly observed by both parties. France will be very attentive to this and will remain committed so that hostilities cease permanently and that credible discussions can quickly begin, ”the president's statement said in a.

19:05 GMT - Armenia, Azerbaijan announce 'humanitarian truce'

Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed to a humanitarian ceasefire from midnight, the foreign ministries of both countries said in separate statements.

The new agreement was announce following phone calls between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his counterparts. Lavrov strongly urged the countries to abide by a Moscow-brokered that frayed immediately after it took force.

The two sides trade blame for breaching that deal.

“This decision was taken following the statement of the presidents of the French Republic, the Russian Federation and the United States of America, representing the co-chair countries of the OSCE Minsk Group, of Oct. 1 2020, the Statement by the Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group of Oct. 5, and in line with the Moscow Statement of Oct. 10, ”Armenia's foreign ministry said in a statement.

#Armenia & #Azerbaijan have agreed to humanitarian truce as of October 18th, 00h00 local time. This decision was taken following Oct1 statement of Presidents of @OSCE MGCC countries #France, #Russia & #USA, Oct5 Statement by MGCC Co-Chairs and in line w / OCT10 #Moscow Statement.

- Anna A. Naghdalyan (@naghdalyan) October 17, 2020

17:47 GMT - Turkic Council condemns Armenia's attack on Azerbaijan

The Turkic Council said on Twitter: “Bombing civilians is against international humanitarian law. The Turkic Council condemns Armenia's new arbitrary attacks by ballistic missiles on Ganja & civilians.

They urged Armenian forces to stop attacking civilians and withdraw their occupying forces from Azerbaijani lands.

Omer Kocaman, deputy secretary general of Turkic Council, said these attacks constitute “war crimes.”

17:01 GMT - Three-year-old loses whole family in Ganja missile attack

A mother and her 16-month-old daughter have been buried in the same grave after a missile attack on the Azerbaijani city of Ganza that killed at least 13 civilians, as fighting intensifies over the disputed of Nagorno-Karabakh region.

Zuleykha Shahnazarova and her daughter Madina Shahnazarli were killed overnight on Saturday, along with the father of the family, Royal Shahnazarov.

The couple's other daughter, three-year-old Khadija Shahnazarli, survived the attack and was being treated in a hospital in the nearby city of Barda.

A three-year-old survivor of the Ganja attack [Seymur Kazimov/Al Jazeera]

14:02 GMT - Rescue operation still ongoing in Ganja

Al Jazeera's Hoda Abdel Hamid, reporting from Baku, said the Azeri officials were saying at least two missiles have hit Ganja overnight.

“One hit the southwest entrance of the city and the other one - a bit more towards the city center where the most number of the civilian casualties happened,” she said.

"The rescue operation is still ongoing as the body of at least one child is still missing."

12:00 GMT - Azerbaijan says it is advancing into Nagorno Karabakh

Azerbaijan's defense ministry has claimed its troops have advanced in various directions across the frontline in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Video shared by the ministry purported to shows air strikes on positions of Armenian forces.

In a televised address, Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev said the town of Fizuli and several other villages in Azerbaijan have been “liberated”, gaining a “strategic edge.”

Fizuli is one of the seven Azerbaijani regions outside Nagorno-Karabakh that was seized by the Armenian forces during the war in the early 1990s.

11:38 GMT - Armenia under 'intense pressure' says Al Jazeera correspondent

Al Jazeera's Bernard Smith said Armenia is under pressure for losing control of territories it regarded as the buffer zone between Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan.

“The foreign ministry of Armenia has released a tweet and it says that consistent attempts by Azerbaijan to extend the geography of the conflict, plus irreversibly undermining regional security should be condemned in the strongest terms,” Smith said, speaking from the Armenian town of Vorotan .

“And this is because the leadership of Armenia is under intense pressure. It has lost control of some territory to Azerbaijan, territory that Armenian forces have controlled since the 1994 ceasefire. ”

"Armenia is accusing Azerbaijan of taking this territory militarily rather than the negotiations over which both sides agreed to take part in."

09:30 GMT - Turkey calls attack on Azerbaijani city by Armenia 'war crime'

Armenia is committing a “war crime” and must be held responsible for its “atrocity,” Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu wrote on Twitter.

Armenia still commits war crimes & massacres civilians. Kills innocent people incl. children.Silence against this atrocity equals sharing responsibility of these murders. Those who have no humanity will be held accountable for their crimes. Will always stand by brotherly #Azerbaijan.

- Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu (@MevlutCavusoglu) October 17, 2020

Hikmat Hajiyev, a foreign policy aide to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, said his country wants a ceasefire.

“We support a humanitarian ceasefire, but Armenia isn't giving it a chance… they keep targeting residential areas,” Hajiyev said in an online briefing with journalists.

09:00 GMT - Azerbaijan president vows 'revenge' after shelling on Ganja

Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev vowed to strike back against Armenia after shelling on his country's second largest city Ganja.

Aliyev said Azerbaijan's army would retaliate against Armenia and “take revenge on the battlefield,” in televised remarks hours after the shelling on a residential area in Ganja flattened rows of houses.

08:35 GMT - Ganja official says death toll is 13, including two children

Mushfiq Jafarov, a member of parliament from Ganja, told Al Jazeera stringer Seymur Kazimov that the death toll from the attack on Ganja now stands at 13.

“There are only civilians living here,” he said, adding that two little children were among those killed.

Mushfiq Jafarov, MP from Ganja, speaks from the site of rubble after an alleged Armenian attack on the city [Seymur Kazimov/Al Jazeera]

Jafarov said two sites were targeted, with a distance of 5km between them.

“More than 40 are wounded,” he said.

08:20 GMT -Civilians in Ganja decry Armenian attack on their homes

Sevil Aliyeva stands in front of the rubble of her house in Azerbaijan's second city of Ganja [Seymur Kazimov/Al Jazeera]

The attack on Ganja, which has a population of more than 300,000 people, came only six days after a missile struck another residential part of the city, killing 10 civilians and leaving many on edge.

“Fortunately my family and I were not at home,” Sevil Aliyeva told Al Jazeera stringer Seymur Kazimov. “My house is fully destroyed. I do believe the Azerbaijani army will take our revenge from Armenian forces. ”

“We were sleeping. The kids were watching TV, ”Rubaba Zhafarova, 65, said in front of her destroyed home.

“All the houses around here are destroyed. Many people are under the rubble. Some are dead, some are wounded. ”

08:00 GMT - Erdogan tells Trudeau suspension of drone exports is against alliance spirit

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan told Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during a phone call that Canada's suspension of the export of some drone technology was not in line with the spirit of alliance, Erdogan's office said.

Canada suspended the export of some drone technology to Turkey earlier this month as it probes allegations the equipment was used by Azeri forces involved in fighting with Armenia.

Turkey and Canada are both members of NATO.

Following Canada's announcement, Turkey's Foreign Ministry had said the suspension showed a double standard.

Turkey's military exports to its ally Azerbaijan have risen six-fold this year, with sales of drones and other military equipment rising to $ 77m last month alone before fighting broke out over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, according to exports data.

07:00 GMT - Azeri human rights official accuses Armenia of 'provoking' Azerbaijan

Ahmad Shahidov, the head of Azerbaijan Institute for Democracy and Human Rights, told Al Jazeera his country was being provoked by Armenia to respond to military attacks.

“Azerbaijan liberated several regions from under Armenian occupation. That's why the Armenian army moved back to Armenia and fired from its territory to provoke Azerbaijan to destroy these fire points, ”he said.

International law demands the withdrawal of the external troops from Nagorno-Karabakh, he added.

“There are four UN security council resolutions that immediately demand the withdrawal of external troops from Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding region.

06:45 GMT - Scud missile fired on Ganja, Al Jazeera correspondent says

The overnight attack on Ganja was caused by a Scud missile, said Al Jazeera's Sinem Koseoglu.

“What we have been hearing from [Azeri] officials is that this is a Scud missile that was fired from Armenian territory, ”she said, speaking from the capital Baku.

Koseoglu said the general prosecutor of Azerbaijan and the minister of state of emergency are in the area trying to understand the impact of this explosion, and to hear from the locals who witnessed the attack.

It's not an earthquake.

It's #GanjaCity where Armenian army indiscriminately bombing the city.

More than 20 buildings flattened, casualties unknown.#ArmeniaKillsCivilians

pic.twitter.com/GDiTOWJWIS

- Hakan Copur (@ hakancopur1) October 16, 2020

“People say there are still civilians under the rubble, and that the impact of this explosion caused by the Scud missile is large,” she said.

Scud missiles are a series of tactical ballistic missiles developed by the Soviet Union during the Cold War era.

05:55 GMT: Azerbaijan says 12 civilians killed, 40 wounded in Ganja by Armenia shelling

Azerbaijan said 12 civilians were killed and more than 40 were wounded in the city of Ganja due to shelling by Armenia.

The Azeri Prosecutor General's office said that two shells hit apartment buildings in the country's second-largest city.

There has been no official reaction from Armenia as yet.

#world Read full article: https://expatimes.com/?p=12075&feed_id=10388

[armeniaitn]

Involvement of terrorists in the Karabakh conflict changes the context of what’s happening – Armenian PM

New Post has been published on https://armenia.in-the.news/politics/involvement-of-terrorists-in-the-karabakh-conflict-changes-the-context-of-whats-happening-armenian-pm-61962-07-10-2020/

Involvement of terrorists in the Karabakh conflict changes the context of what’s happening – Armenian PM

The involvement of terrorist groups in the Karabakh conflict changes the context of what’s happening, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said in an interview with Russia’s First Channel.

Question: Were you surprised by the Azerbaijani offensive as to the intensity of fire and the military equipment being used, in particular, I mean the widespread use of drones?

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan – To be honest, it was not unexpected, as Azerbaijan had been using warlike rhetoric, hate speech against Armenians and everything related to Armenians for a long time. We had got accustomed to the language of threats.

What came as a surprise was the use of terrorist groups involved in this conflict. I think this changes the whole context of what is happening, because yesterday Russia, the Russian special services officially confirmed that fighters from some cross-border terrorist groups are involved in the hostilities, that is, in the attack on Nagorno-Karabakh.

I think that Nagorno-Karabakh is practically fighting against international terrorism, which makes great difference in the context of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Question: The day before yesterday, you went to Stepanakert for the first time since the flare-up, where you met with the military, you probably saw a lot with your own eyes. The Azerbaijani army’s tactics most likely consists in the use of high-precision weapons with a view to hitting Armenian logistics units. What do you oppose to that tactics?

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan – The Nagorno-Karabakh army opposes the mobility of its units and preventive strikes. It turned out to be quite effective. Besides, the troops of the Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army are successfully destroying their drones.

Question: The Azerbaijani leadership says they are prepared to halt the fire in case you recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as the territory of Azerbaijan; there are even demands to present a timetable for the withdrawal of Armenian troops from Nagorno-Karabakh. You take the opposite position. And this is like a dead end. What is the compromise acceptable for you? What compromises are unacceptable?

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan – You know, it would be inappropriate to talk about details in this atmosphere. As for the settlement, it seems to be obvious that compromise is needed to resolve a conflict. The Armenian side has always been ready for compromise. If Azerbaijan is prepared for compromise, too, it will change the situation.

Question: Baku blames you for violating the UN Security Council resolution on Karabakh. Which is your response to those accusations? And also, did those resolutions somehow manage to resolve the controversy?

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan – You know, the UN Security Council resolutions should not be taken out of context and presented in a different light. They need an in-depth analysis to understand what is stated there. They do not say anything about Armenia’s military operations at all.

The latest resolution states that Azerbaijan has violated the international ceasefire agreement, as a result of which it has lost territories, and those territories have been taken over by the self-defense forces of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Armenia is referred to in a different context. Armenia is urged to use its ties with the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh to somehow stabilize the situation. The last of those resolutions was adopted in 1993, at a time when there was a specific operational situation. I mean that those resolutions should not be cut out of context.

Question: Can the contradictions between Azerbaijan and Armenia spill over the borders of bilateral relations, or go beyond the boundaries of a bilateral conflict? You say that the Turkish military is actually leading the operation. What kind of international support do you expect if the war spills over the borders of the region?

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan – The situation has already gone beyond the borders of the region. I mean the borders of the Karabakh conflict zone, considering that radical elements and international terrorists are there. It already poses a threat to the security of all countries in the greater region. And this is a threat to global security. In other words, this has already gone beyond the borders of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

And, of course, Turkey’s involvement is changing the context, too. I talked about it many times during the past week, during the last ten days. Why did Turkey return to the South Caucasus a hundred years later? For two reasons: to follow up the policy of genocide and to push ahead with its drive for expansion to the north, east and south. All this should be viewed in the context of the policy that Turkey is pursuing in the Mediterranean, the Middle East, with regard to Greece and Cyprus, and so on. This is a policy of restoring the Turkish Empire. This is a threat not only to our region in the narrow sense, but also to global security in the broadest sense.

And I am convinced that international partners should draw specific conclusions from this, as this is no longer a question of Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia’s security. This is a matter of security for many countries, and even for a wide range of superpowers.

Question: Nagorno-Karabakh has not yet been recognized by Armenia. Nevertheless, in recent days both you and the President of Armenia spoke about such an opportunity. Do you think that the recognition can help Karabakh in any way, or will it aggravate the situation?

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan – You asked the most important question, at least one of the most important questions. The question is that if our analysis shows that it will help Karabakh resolve the issue, we will take such a step; if not, we will refrain from making such a decision. We are holding discussions to that effect. In addition, we take into account the fact that we must act as a constructive member of the international community.

Question: The present confrontation is the most deadly one in the last quarter of a century. But sooner or later any war ends. What is your vision of peace?

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan – It is just necessary to cease the fire; the aggression against Karabakh should be stopped; we need to halt the terrorists because I consider this an international act of terrorism against the people of Nagorno-Karabakh.  

Read original article here.

[khalilhumam]

Nagorno-Karabakh: An old conflict in a new geopolitical context, says South Caucasus expert Tom de Waal

New Post has been published on http://khalilhumam.com/nagorno-karabakh-an-old-conflict-in-a-new-geopolitical-context-says-south-caucasus-expert-tom-de-waal/

Nagorno-Karabakh: An old conflict in a new geopolitical context, says South Caucasus expert Tom de Waal

Screenshot from a  BBC video explaining the geography of the conflict

For over three decades, the war between Azerbaijan to Armenia over the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh has been mostly frozen, with long periods of stalemate punctuated by flares of armed confrontation, leading to death on both sides. The most recent of outbreak of violence began on September 27. This time, both combatants and analysts are predicting that the conflict will escalate, with unknown and potentially dangerous consequences. To understand why, I spoke with Tom de Waal, a Senior Fellow at Carnegie Europe and expert the geopolitics of the South Caucasus, Russia and Ukraine. De Waal has traveled extensively in the region, and wrote an authoritative book on Nagorno-Karabakh, “Black Garden: Armenia and Azerbaijan Through Peace and War”.  Filip Noubel (FN) What is different this time in the escalation between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which started September 27?

Tom de Waal (TdW) We have seen violations of the 1994 ceasefire before, we’ve even seen small bouts of fighting, but we haven’t seen a sustained military offensive by Azerbaijan since the war ended in the 1990s. This is new, and so is the geopolitical context: Russia looks strangely impotent and seems unable or unwilling to impose a cease fire, while Turkey has dropped any pretense of neutrality and is now playing an active role. Finally, the US, which has had a strong role in this has been an extremely weak voice so far. 

FN Both leaders are said to be both prisoners to the conflict, but also exploiting its narrative to fight opposition at home and ride a wave of populism. Would you agree? 

TdW This is correct, but this is true of any leader: the whole nation is involved in this conflict, those two modern nations [following the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991] were built starting in the 1990s around the claims on Karabakh, so a leader is bound to be a leader of this national idea around Karabakh as well. It is also useful in terms of domestic politics. This is more true on the Azerbaijani side, because it is an authoritarian society, so now the opposition has to go quiet. Indeed the opposition figures are supporting the army and being very patriotic and supportive. Azerbaijan had a lot of problems this year: falling oil prices, the COVID-19 pandemic, problems with political prisoners, yet now it unites behind this call. But this is also very tricky: if there is no success on the battle front, the nation can turn against the nation, and indeed two previous Azerbaijani leaders, Ayaz Mutalibov and Abdulfaz Elchibey lost power in large part because of failure on the Karabakh front. 

FN During this escalation, Armenian authorities restated that they could recognize Nagorno-Karabakh. If this were to happen, what could be the consequences?

TdW In military terms, we are far from being in a full scale war. Most operations are concentrated in three regions around Karabakh, using long-range weaponry. To retake the territory lost is literally an uphill battle because Armenians control the mountainous terrain. This could mean heavy losses on the Azerbaijani side, which is not something the Azerbaijani leadership would want, nor their society tolerate. That is a restraining factor, but this [fight] could go on for a long time. Russia doesn't seem to be able impose a ceasefire, thus there are many ways this could escalate. One is Armenia recognizing Nagorno-Karabakh. Then we would have more of a Cyprus situation, with no possibility to agree. Another one could be the use of heavy weapons to attack cities, which would be disastrous. Or if Turkey were to increase its involvement: for now it is not sending troops, it is helping at the edges. In the least bad scenario, the current fighting would continue for a few days, then both sides would be exhausted, claim some success, and agree to a ceasefire. But I am not holding my breath for that.

FN Turkey’s support is unprecedented. What do you make of the Turkey-Russia relationship, which has been swinging from sworn enemies to allies in past few years on several regional issues, including the Syria conflict. 

TdW Erdoğan and Putin are happy to have a fight using proxies, which is why I hope Turkey will avoid any incursion which would cross into Armenian territory, which Russia would have to respond to under its military obligation with Armenia. So I don’t think they will come under direct conflict. Russia’s hands are really tied. They are the main mediator, they value their relation with Baku and Yerevan, so if they get too involved on one side, they would lose the other side. Russian can only provide support discreetly to Armenia, and there are reports of Moscow sending weapons via Iran. 

FN What about the roles of Georgia and Iran, two other neighboring countries?

TdW Georgia has a strong interest in this situation not escalating. It shares borders with both countries. It also has ethnic minorities of both Armenians and Azerbaijanis who have lived in peace for decades. But Georgia is very dependent on Azerbaijan economically. It has also expressed solidarity with Azerbaijan on the concept of territorial integrity [Georgia itself has parts of its territory that have declared self-proclaimed independence and are no longer under Georgian control: Abkhazia and South Ossetia]. Georgia has offered to be a mediator, but it would not be regarded as an honest broker by Armenia. And Russia certainly wouldn’t want Tbilisi to be involved [Russia and Georgia fought a war in 2008]. Georgia could provide a neutral space for both sides to meet, and should be more involved but there are limits to their capacities.  Iran was a mediator in 1992, but then was shut out. But it has borders with both states as well. It has enormous stakes and any future negotiations in an international format must include Iran, despite US opposition.

  Written by Filip Noubel

[bigyack-com]

Libya strongman Haftar agrees ceasefire after calls from Kremlin, Ankara - world news

Libyan strongman General Khalifa Haftar on Saturday announced a ceasefire in his months-long battle to control the capital Tripoli after calls for a truce from Russia and Turkey.The North African state has seen an escalation of the turmoil that erupted after a NATO-backed uprising killed dictator Moamer Kadhafi in 2011, with Haftar trying to capture Tripoli from Libya’s UN-recognised government.Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan this week called for a truce in Libya starting Sunday from midnight, but Haftar had initially vowed to fight on.Haftar’s forces on Saturday agreed to the ceasefire from midnight on Sunday (2200 GMT), but warned of a “severe” response to any violation by the “opposing camp”, a reference to the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) led by Fayez al-Sarraj.Before Haftar’s statement, Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel met earlier on Saturday in Moscow and called for international efforts to address the crisis in Libya.Germany and Russia are both acting as mediators in a conflict Berlin has warned could become a “second Syria” and the topic topped the agenda as they met for talks at the Kremlin.“I am really counting on the opposing sides in Libya ceasing fire, ceasing armed combat... within a few hours,” Putin said. “It’s important to bring an end to the armed confrontation.” Merkel, making her first visit to Russia since 2018, said she hoped “the Turkish-Russian efforts will be successful,” calling a ceasefire a first step in a peace process.Hafter’s forces, who began their offensive on Tripoli in April, did not give any details in their short statement on how the ceasefire would come into effect.Speaking in Rome after meetings with Italy’s premier, Sarraj had earlier welcomed the Turkish-Russian initiative, but said any ceasefire would be conditional on a withdrawal of Haftar’s forces.Western powers and Northern African states have been working to prevent a widening conflict in Libya with the increasingly involvement of international players backing opposing forces in the conflict.Libya is now divided between the GNA in Tripoli and Haftar’s forces in the east and the south and European governments are concerned about Islamist militants and migrant smugglers taking advantage of the chaos.Putin and Merkel both backed a Libya peace conference in Berlin being organised by UN special envoy to Libya, Ghassan Salame, which could be held in the coming weeks.Putin called the initiative “timely” and a “very good step in the right direction.” The conference must include “countries that have a real interest in promoting a peace settlement” and decisions must be agreed preliminarily with the Libyan sides, with the involvement of Salame, he said.While Turkey has sent troops to support the UN-backed Tripoli government, Moscow is accused of backing mercenaries supporting Haftar in his fight against the government.Putin reiterated Moscow’s denial of this, saying: “if there are Russians there, they do not represent the interests of the Russian state and do not receive money from it.” In Libya, “unfortunately large-scale military action is continuing and terrorist activity is growing,” said Putin, who is keen to stress his role as a regional powerbroker.“All this undermines stability not only in the region itself but has a negative influence on Europe,” he added, citing smuggling of drugs and weapons.He stressed the need to “restart the political process with the final aim of overcoming the split inside the country and forming single state institutions.” The talks that Putin praised as “substantive” also covered other flashpoints in the region, including Iran, with the leaders stressing the need to save the 2015 nuclear deal that the US withdrew from unilaterally in 2018.Merkel said it was necessary to “keep (the deal) alive” to prevent Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, while Putin said it was necessary for Instex, a barter mechanism to allow Iran to circumvent sanctions on trade backed by major European powers, to “finally start working.” The talks also covered the Syria conflict where a fresh ceasefire brokered by Russia and Turkey is expected to go into effect after midnight in the last major opposition bastion of Idlib.Putin warned that “large-scale military conflicts” in the Middle East would be a “catastrophe not only for the region, the Middle East, but for the whole world,” leading to “new flows of migrants” to Europe and other regions.This would also cause “huge damage to the global economy,” he said.The leaders also discussed the war with Russia-backed separatists in Ukraine.Putin in December took part in talks on the Ukraine conflict in Paris in the “Normandy format” hosted by Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron.This was his first face-to-face meeting with his recently-installed Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky, relaunching the stalled peace process. Read the full article

[phgq]

Local, military execs settle decades-old NoCot clan war

#PHnews: Local, military execs settle decades-old NoCot clan war

COTABATO CITY – Military and civilian officials on Wednesday resolved an ongoing bloody “rido” (clan war) involving Moro families in Matalam, North Cotabato through diplomacy which led to the signing by both sides of a peace deal.

The warring families, who belonged to two Moro fronts in Mindanao, also vowed before the Qur’an to cease from firing their guns against each other.

 The decades-old clan war has claimed an undetermined number of lives from both sides and the displacement of hundreds of civilians every time hostilities erupt between the two camps.

 North Cotabato Governor Nancy Catamco and Brig. Gen. Roberto Capulong, 602nd Infantry Brigade commander, invited the warring Moro families to come up with a “win-win” solution and let both sides sign a peace deal during ceremonies held at the Army’s brigade headquarters in Carmen, North Cotabato.

 The forging of the peace covenant marked an end to decades of sporadic hostilities involving members of the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) led by Datu Dima Ambel and followers of Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) sub-commander Naig Naga.

 "Peace is a choice. If all of us here choose peace and we learn to let go of anger, pain, revenge, then we have chosen peace,” Catamco told representatives of warring families, military and police officials and civil leaders during the meeting.

 Capulong pitched in by saying: "I will not allow this day to pass without a peace deal signed by both sides, we must come up with an agreement.”

 The warring families, for their part, showed a willingness to end the conflict.

 The clan of MNLF’s Dima Ambel, whose son Norodin was killed in an ambush last week, cried for justice but expressed willingness to work with government troops and respect the peace pact.

 Ustadz Alimmodin Omar, commander of the MILF’s 108th base command, told Catamco and Capulong that he already ordered all MILF ground commanders in the area to back off and uphold the ceasefire.

 The peace pact was signed by Datu Alex Ambel for the MNLF Misuari Group and Ustadz Omar for the MILF.

 "I am willing to spend three days, listening to both sides and all affected families, if this is what it takes to come up with a lasting solution to this conflict," Catamco later told reporters.

 The peace deal declares the cessation of hostilities and both sides must abide by it religiously with a team of representatives from both sides, Army, police, local officials, and peace observers formed to monitor their compliance.

 Both sides were directed to stay in their respective confined areas, refrain from issuing provocative statements, avoid the display of guns, especially on the other’s area of jurisdiction.

 Those involved in the ambush that killed Norodin Ambel, village councilman of Barangay Kilada, Matalam, have been identified, arrested by MILF leadership, and were turned over to the MILF main base in Darapanan, Sultan Kudarat for further investigation and possible punishment.

 The warring families also agreed to allow some 1,000 family-evacuees to return home.

 While a clan war in Matalam has been resolved, both Catamco and Capulong now turned their eyes on yet another clan war in Pikit, also in Cotabato.

 Military reports identified the warring factions in the borders of Pikit, Cotabato, and Pagalungan, Maguindanao as those belonging to MNLF sub-commanders Jainudin Butuan and Kuwat, and the group of MILF 110th base command sub-commanders Abdul Hamid Sansawi, Sambutuan, and Ekot.

 The fighting has displaced some 1,500 families who belong to the Maguindanaon tribe and have been observing the fasting month of Ramadan.

 At least two from both sides have been killed in the conflict that reignited last Sunday.

 Local officials reported 30 houses of civilians have been razed to the ground after these were looted by gunmen. (PNA)

  ***

References:

* Philippine News Agency. "Local, military execs settle decades-old NoCot clan war." Philippine News Agency. https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1102808 (accessed May 14, 2020 at 08:33PM UTC+14).

* Philippine News Agency. "Local, military execs settle decades-old NoCot clan war." Archive Today. https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1102808 (archived).

[survivalplan1]

Russia and Ukraine Talks Resume

On Monday, Russia and Ukraine are scheduled to resume conflict talks. The recent rounds have resulted in significant progress for both sides. The latest round of talks will take place through video conference. Ukrainian President Zelensky’s aide Mykhailo Podolyak said the negotiations continue “non-stop.” During the meeting, he also praised the efforts of the Russian side. He added that the situation in Ukraine is a nightmare for civilians.

The fourth round of talks started Monday. Kiev officials are portraying a more positive tone, despite the past failure of previous negotiations. The Ukrainian government has made it clear that it is seeking an immediate cease-fire and the withdrawal of Russian troops. Meanwhile, the Russian side has avoided showing red lines or ultimatums and has been avoiding ultimatums. In contrast, the Ukrainian side has demanded that the Ukrainian government withdraw its forces.

As the fourth round of talks gets underway, both sides have hailed the progress of the previous rounds. Despite the heightened tensions in the region, both sides are highlighting the progress made in earlier rounds. One Ukrainian negotiator posted a photo of a video-conference meeting with a Russian official. The lead negotiator said the talks were “hard.” Another official from the Russian presidency, Dmitry Peskov, discussed the role of Wall Street in the negotiations.

While both sides are denying any involvement in the conflict, Zelensky’s aide claimed on Saturday that the Russians were willing to make concessions. He alleged that the negotiations had shifted toward more positive elements. He also said that talks had begun almost daily since the conflict broke out. In his video address, Zelensky urged the Russians to close the sky and stop attacking each other. As a result, more than 130,000 civilians were saved in six days.

The White House is weighing the possibility of sending President Joe Biden to Europe for face-to-face talks with European leaders. The White House is also considering whether President Biden should visit NATO headquarters on March 24. After a week of tense negotiations, the parties could resume the talks. But if this option is rejected, the U.S. will still be the main decision maker. It will likely depend on how the Russians react to the position of the U.S. and the EU.

The talks between the Russian and Ukrainian governments are due to resume Tuesday. There are two weeks of fighting and tensions in Ukraine and Poland, but both countries have already declared their intention to stay in the conflict. The negotiations between the two countries are also critical for their economy. If the talks resume, the US would be a strong ally for the occupied country. The government is also seeking economic and military assistance from the EU. It will be crucial to ensure the safety of both nations’ nuclear facilities.

There are still some issues that must be resolved before any progress can be made in the talks. The Russians have repeatedly bombarded Ukraine, and the locals have fled the country. The government and the separatists are unable to reach a deal. The two sides’ representatives are in constant communication. During the Monday online meeting, both sides expressed their hope for progress. The Ukrainian government is also requesting an immediate ceasefire and withdrawing Russian troops from the country.

The renewed talks will allow the two countries to resume direct contact. While the two countries are negotiating, they have agreed to meet in person. The US wants them to discuss the disputed territories, but the Kremlin has been hesitant to meet with Zelenskyy. However, the Ukrainian President said he was willing to work with Putin and was eager to continue negotiations. The US is a key player in these negotiations. The Russian government is eager to ensure that the talks are successful.

While the talks have been ongoing for a while, they have failed to reach an agreement. But the National Guard chief blamed the slow progress on far-right Ukrainian forces. Several days ago, the two sides did manage to reach a ceasefire were signed. This was the first time in a decade that the two countries had reached a truce. They remained in touch over the weekend, but it took nearly three weeks to see any signs of a breakthrough.

The post Russia and Ukraine Talks Resume appeared first on Survival-Plan.com.

source http://survival-plan.com/russia-and-ukraine-talks-resume/

[armeniaitn]

Senate and House leaders urge Pompeo to cut military aid to Azerbaijan, sanction Turkey

New Post has been published on https://armenia.in-the.news/politics/senate-and-house-leaders-urge-pompeo-to-cut-military-aid-to-azerbaijan-sanction-turkey-61242-02-10-2020/

Senate and House leaders urge Pompeo to cut military aid to Azerbaijan, sanction Turkey

Key Senate and House leaders, joined by over sixty of their colleagues, have called on Secretary of State Pompeo to take decisive action in condemning the Azerbaijan and Turkey-led offensive against Armenia and Artsakh (Nagorno Karabakh), urging sanctions on military and security assistance, as Presidents Aliyev and Erdogan escalate their attacks on civilian populations across the region, reported the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA).

“Armenian Americans and our allies in Congress demand a stop to the killing, sanctions on Turkey, and an immediate cut-off of U.S. military aid to Azerbaijan,” said ANCA Executive Director Aram Hamparian. “Erdogan and Aliyev – two dictators conspiring to complete the work of 1915 – need to be held accountable now.”

Senate Foreign Relations Committee Ranking Democrat Robert Menendez (D-NJ) was joined by Senate Democratic Leader Charles Schumer (D-NY) and nine colleagues in sending a strongly worded letter to Secretary of State Pompeo, calling for the immediate end to U.S. security assistance to Azerbaijan and calling on the Trump Administration to immediately engage with Turkey President Erdogan to disengage from the conflict.  “If Turkey is unwilling to step back from active engagement in the conflict, then the State Department should immediately suspend all sales and transfers of military equipment to Ankara,” note the Senators.

“Given the possibility that this conflict could engulf the region and draw in other external actors, it is imperative that the U.S. use its diplomatic leverage to bring about an immediate cease fire,” explained the Senators. “We appreciate the engagement by National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien, Deputy Secretary Stephen Biegun, and Minsk Group Co-Chair Andrew Schofer, but the circumstances call for more senior-level U.S. engagement before the conflict escalates further.”

Joining Senators Menendez and Democratic Leader Schumer in cosigning the letter were Senators Corey Booker (D-NJ), Robert Casey (D-PA), Richard Durbin (D-IL), Ed Markey (D-MA), Gary Peters (D-MI), Jack Reed (D-RI), Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI).

Separately, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Jim Risch (R-ID), was joined by U.S. Senators Ron Johnson (R-WI), Rob Portman (R-OH), and Marco Rubio (R-FL) in issuing a statement noting that “the rapid escalation of fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region is extremely worrying. Sadly, over the past five days, both sides have faced needless casualties. All regional powers involved in the conflict must end their aggressive and escalatory actions, and channel their efforts into bringing all parties to the negotiating table. The risk this violence poses to the people of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the wider Caucasus region is too great.”  The statement goes on to call on Azerbaijan and Armenia to continue working with the “Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s Minsk Group to negotiate a peaceful end to this decades-long disagreement.”

Congressional Armenian Caucus Co-Chairs Frank Pallone and Jackie Speier, House Intelligence Committee Chair Adam Schiff and Ranking Republican Devin Nunes (R-CA) and 45 House colleagues called on Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to take decisive U.S. government action to condemn Azerbaijan’s unprovoked aggression, take steps to block U.S. aid to the Aliyev regime, demand greater cease-fire monitoring along the line of contact, and call out Turkey’s “detrimental” role in Azerbaijan’s recent attacks.

“We write to express our deep concern with Azerbaijan’s renewed aggression against Artsakh (Nagorno Karabakh) and the rising possibility of a wider conflict with Armenia. We ask that the Administration use all available diplomatic tools to reduce tensions, end the fighting, and restrain Azerbaijan from further offensive actions,” stated the House members. “In our view, this new round of fighting represents further evidence that the U.S. policy of equivalence between Armenia and Azerbaijan has failed. For far too long, the United States and other members of the Minsk Group have drawn a false equivalence between Armenia and Azerbaijan, even as the latter threatens war and refuses to agree to monitoring along the line of contact.”

Joining Representatives Pallone, Speier, Schiff, and Nunes in cosigning the House letter to Secretary Pompeo are Representatives: Gus Bilirakis (R-FL), Tony Cardenas (D-CA), Judy Chu (D-CA), David Cicilline (D-RI), Katherine Clark (D-MA), Lou Correa (D-CA), Jim Costa (D-CA), TJ Cox (D-CA), Jason Crow (D-CO), Ted Deutch (D-FL), Anna Eshoo (D-CA), Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI), Mike Garcia (R-CA), Jimmy Gomez (D-CA), Josh Harder (D-CA), Steve King (R-IA), Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL), James Langevin (D-RI), Brenda Lawrence (D-MI), Barbara Lee (D-CA), Andy Levin (D-MI), Ted Lieu (D-CA), Zoe Lofgren (D-CA), Alan Lowenthal (D-CA), Stephen Lynch (D-MA), Carolyn Maloney (D-NY), Brian Mast (R-FL), James McGovern (D-MA), Grace Meng (D-NY), John Moolenaar (R-MI), Grace Napolitano (D-CA), Linda Sanchez (D-CA), John Sarbanes (D-MD), Janice Schakowsky (D-IL), Brad Sherman (D-CA), Albio Sires (D-NJ), Christopher Smith (R-NJ), Greg Stanton (D-AZ), Haley Stevens (D-MI), Tom Suozzi (D-NY), Dina Titus (D-NV), Paul Tonko (D-NY), Lori Trahan (D-MA), Maxine Waters (D-CA), and Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-NJ).

Well over 150,000 letters and 10,000 calls have already reached President Trump, former Vice-President Biden, U.S. Senators and House members through the ANCA’s dual action portals – anca.org/alert and anca.org/call – in support of zeroing out military and security aid to Azerbaijan, sanctioning Turkey for their participation in the latest attacks against Armenia and Artsakh, urging the implementation of the Royce-Engel peace proposal, which would help ensure a cease-fire through the more OSCE monitors along the line of contact and the placement of gunfire-locator systems to identify those breaking the ceasefire.  Over 35 Senate and House Members have already condemned the Turkey and Azerbaijan’s anti-Armenian attacks.

Read original article here.

[armeniaitn]

Armenia-Azerbaijan border clashes threaten broader war in Caucasus

New Post has been published on https://armenia.in-the.news/politics/armenia-azerbaijan-border-clashes-threaten-broader-war-in-caucasus-37876-18-07-2020/

Armenia-Azerbaijan border clashes threaten broader war in Caucasus

  Armenia-Azerbaijan border clashes threaten broader war in Caucasus

By Ulas Atesci 18 July 2020

Armed clashes involving tanks and artillery on the border between Tavush in north-eastern Armenia and the Tovuz district in Azerbaijan since last Sunday threaten to provoke all-out war. At least 12 soldiers, including a major general and a colonel, and one civilian from Azerbaijan are dead, as are four soldiers from Armenia. Many others are wounded.

After a dangerous China-India border clash last month, this is further confirmation that the COVID-19 pandemic has intensified geo-political conflicts all over the world. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan face a growing coronavirus outbreak and a serious economic and social crisis causing mounting anger among working people. While Azerbaijan, with a population of 10 million, has registered more than 26,000 cases and 334 deaths, Armenia has reported more than 33,000 cases and 607 deaths despite having a population of less than three million.

Both Armenia and Azerbaijan accused each other of having violated the ceasefire between their countries. The BBC reported that the border clashes came “just days after Azerbaijan’s President [Ilham] Aliyev criticised international mediators conducting peace negotiations with Armenia, describing the process as ‘meaningless.’”

Significantly, these clashes have taken place not in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, but along an internationally-recognized border between the two countries. Azerbaijani Deputy Defense Minister Kerim Veliyev claimed on Tuesday that nearly 100 Armenian soldiers have been killed, but Armenian officials denied this.

While Armenian official Artsrun Hovhannisyan said on Friday “it can be considered that the tension has been greatly eased,” this second armed clash in five years between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and official threats show an all-out war between the two South Caucasian states is a real danger. Such a war that could easily erupt into a conflict between Russia, a close backer of Armenia, and Turkey, a traditional ally of Azerbaijan and a member of NATO.

The seriousness of the conflict was underlined on Thursday with a statement from Azerbaijan’s Defense Ministry spokesman Vagif Dargyakhly, who said: “The Armenian side must not forget that the state-of-the-art missile systems our army has are capable of launching a precision strike on the Metsamor nuclear power plant, and that would be a huge tragedy for Armenia.”

This Soviet-built nuclear plant is about 35 kilometers from Yerevan, the Armenian capital, and close to the eastern border with Turkey as well. A missile attack on this plant would inevitably lead to a horrific nuclear disaster affecting the entire region.

The Armenian Foreign Ministry called this threat an “explicit demonstration of state terrorism and genocidal intent,” adding: “We strongly condemn the nuclear threats voiced by Azerbaijan, which demonstrate absolute absence of responsibility and sound judgment from this particular member of the international community.”

Moreover, Baku and Yerevan both accused each other of targeting civilians. While Armenia’s Defense Ministry spokeswoman Sushan Stepanyan said on Thursday Azerbaijani forces were “shelling Armenian villages with mortars and howitzers,” Azerbaijani officials claimed that “Armenians shelled Azerbaijani villages with large-caliber weapons.”

President Aliyev sacked his Foreign Minister Elmar Mamedyarov on Thursday after accusing him of engaging “in meaningless work, meaningless negotiations.” This came after a pro-war demonstration in Azerbaijan’s capital Baku on Tuesday night, involving about 30,000 people shouting slogans like “Karabakh is Azerbaijan!” and “Mobilisation,” according to local reports. At 4:00 a.m. local time, several protesters broke into the parliament.

According to AP, Aliyev “lashed out at nationalist demonstrators” and “accused the leaders of the opposition Popular Front of Azerbaijan of inciting riots to destabilize Azerbaijan during the renewed fighting with Armenia.”

Since Sunday, many official statements have come from all over the world. Reuters news agency wrote: “International concern is high because of the threat to stability in a region that hosts pipelines taking oil and gas from the Caspian Sea to global markets.”

While UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called Tuesday for an immediate cessation of hostilities on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, the Co-Chairs of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s (OSCE) Minsk Group urged all “sides to refrain from inflammatory rhetoric and attempts to change the situation on the ground,” in a statement on Wednesday.

The OSCE Minsk Group, led by the United States, France and Russia, was created in 1992, ostensibly to solve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Nagorno-Karabakh, a majority-Armenian mountainous region in Azerbaijan, declared independence in 1991. The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh had begun in 1988, when Azerbaijan and Armenia were still part of the Soviet Union. It escalated into a full-scale war in the early 1990s, after the Stalinist bureaucracy dissolved the Soviet Union in 1991. The war between Azeri troops and Armenian separatists had claimed some 30,000 lives by the time of the 1994 ceasefire.

As the World Socialist Web Site warned in 2016, when the last serious armed clashes erupted between the two countries, killing nearly 200 soldiers on both sides: “The war danger posed by the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis points to the disastrous geopolitical consequences of the dissolution of the USSR, and the reactionary character of the nationalist politics that predominate in all the former Soviet republics, including Russia. This provided the basis for the emergence of explosive ethnic conflicts and imperialist intrigue across the region.”

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declared his government is “deeply concerned about deaths and violence on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan,” and called on “parties to immediately de-escalate, resume meaningful dialogue and ceasefire to start negotiations with the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs.”

France for its part condemned the “armed confrontation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border,” calling for “dialogue.”

“We are deeply concerned about the shootings on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. We call on both sides to exercise restraint and respect their obligations under the cease-fire,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday, adding: “Russia, as we have already stated at various levels, is ready to provide its mediation efforts for a settlement, as a co-chair of the Minsk group.”

Russia has two military bases in Armenia, with about 5,000 soldiers and hundreds of tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery systems as well as reportedly a dozen MiG-29 fighter jets, helicopter gunships and other weapons.

According to Russia’s TASS news agency, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a “surprise combat readiness check” on Friday. It involved about 150,000 troops, over 26,000 weapon systems, 414 aircraft and 106 warships “for Russia’s Southern and Western Military Districts, the Airborne Force and marine infantry of the Northern and Pacific Fleets.”

Defense Minister Army General Sergei Shoigu said: “The check stipulates holding 56 tactical exercises with the troops. A total of 35 training grounds and camps and 17 naval ranges in the Black and Caspian Seas will be involved. … The results of training measures held should be taken into account in assessing the level of the preparedness of military large units and formations for taking part in the Kavkaz-2020 [Caucasus-2020] strategic exercise [scheduled for September].”

However, the most belligerent statements came from Ankara, a major ally of Baku for decades. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan condemned the “attack by Armenia against friend and brother Azerbaijan,” during a press conference on Tuesday. He said: “Moreover, this last attack was not on the Upper Karabakh line, but directly on the borders between the two states and with heavy weapons.”

Erdoğan was effectively implying the Kremlin is behind what he called “Armenia’s reckless and systematic attacks,” which he said aim “block the solution in the Upper Karabakh and to reveal new conflict areas.”

Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar also declared that this move “goes over Armenia’s head,” after a meeting with Azerbaijani Deputy Defense Minister and Air Force Commander Ramiz Tahirov on July 16.

On Friday, İsmail Demir, head of the Presidency of Defense Industries, an affiliate of the Turkish Presidency, declared on Twitter: “We need to show the world that the two brother countries are in full unity. One nation, two states,” adding that “Our armed unmanned aerial vehicles, ammunition and missiles with our experience, technology and capabilities are at Azerbaijan’s service.”

Emphasizing their full support for the Erdoğan government in the conflict, the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) and Good Party backed a joint statement with the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its ally Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) in the name of the Turkish Parliament on Wednesday, declaring: “Turkey, which has always been a defender of peace and stability with the understanding of ‘two states, one nation,’ will continue to stand with Azerbaijan in its efforts to restore its territorial integrity.”

Amid dangerous proxy wars between Turkey and Russia in Syria and Libya, the Turkish ruling elite’s full support for Azerbaijan and Moscow’s massive military exercise constitute a warning that escalation between Azerbaijan and Armenia could rapidly spiral out of control and provoke a broader conflict including Russia, Turkey and NATO.

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