echelovegood

[facialhairy]

Adam said to this famer: I'd really like to suck you off.

He was a bit taken aback at first but, came around to the idea after they passed the old hen house, at the back of the ranch (a bit of privacy). Adam really knew how to pleasure another man. Adam is on the left.

[makingdonalddrumpfagain]

[dontmean2bepoliticalbut]

[iwriteaboutfeminism]

[enny43]

Let's talk about Colorado's 3rd congressional district.

Lauren Boebert and Adam Frisch are locked in a ridiculously close election in a race a lot of people are watching very closely. Seeing Boebert unseated would be a huge win and may turn out to be crucially important in a midterm the Dems (shockingly) still have a chance to take the House in. It has been razer thin for several days, and over a long lapse in reporting, Fisch lead by less than 70 votes with ~90% of the vote in.

As of right now, Boebert holds a lead of 1,136 votes with about 98% of the votes counted. It might take until next Thursday for the remaining votes to be counted and a winner declared, as there are an estimated 5,898 votes still to be counted. This does not include overseas and military votes or ballots that need to be cured, but we'll get to that.

First lets address a question many people have:

Why is this taking so long?

The short answer is, it's not. The main reason it seems to be taking longer than most races is directly related to how close the race actually is. See when news media "call" races, they are actually just projecting the winner based on the possibilities in remaining math. If it becomes reasonably impossible for a certain candidate to win, they call the race. The projected loser may even concede at this time. But that is not an official result, nor does the counting stop at that point. Just like in CO-3, counting continues following the guidelines set by the state to tabulate an official result. This race only hasn't been called yet because with the remaining votes, either candidate can still win. Colorado also has a gold-standard level election system.. so we can expect counting to take a little longer due to such a high percentage of ballots there being mail-in (Colorado sends ballots to all voters by default)

As far as the timeline goes, this is not abnormal.

So what are Adam Frisch's odds of winning and how can we calculate them? This is a more complicated answer, but I'll do my best to keep it simple.

As I said, there are an estimated 5,898 votes remaining to be counted. The bulk of them (2,365) come from Pueblo County which favors Frisch by 3.3%, and another large share (700 votes) comes from Pitkin County which favors Frisch by 29.2%

If all math followed those numbers, this would be a pickup of 565 votes for Adam Frisch. Boebert also has an advantage in Mesa County of 7.8% where there are 726 estimated votes remaining. This would give her a pickup of ~112 votes. In the remaining counties where there are less than 300 votes remaining to be counted, we can estimate that the votes would mostly cancel out, with a slight edge for Frisch.

All the math with these smaller counties included points to Frisch coming up short by about 770 votes (this would still fall in the range of an automatic recount).. but this does not account for all the outstanding ballots.

There are still an indeterminate number of absentee ballots from overseas and military votes to count, in addition to provisional ballots that may have been cast on Election Day (Colorado has same-day voter registration, so these are uncommon).. and there is also a curing period for ballots that may have had a mistake and need to be verified (such as someone forgetting to sign the envelope when mailing their ballot in)

We can expect the military and overseas ballots to favor Frisch. Not only does the military slightly lean Dem as it is, Southern Colorado is home to a lot of active duty Air Force which has an even more liberal tilt than the military broadly. As for the cured ballots, it's hard to say.. but my intuition tells me Democratic voters would be more energized and likely to fix their ballots by the deadline (there's also a lot of outreach being done to help people through this process, something I imagine the Boebert camp will be less capable of doing)

Are there any guarantees the remaining votes will follow the trend exactly? Of course not. They may favor one candidate or the other to a greater degree than the averages represent. Without knowing how many outstanding ballots there are from the military, overseas, and cured counts.. it is fundamentally impossible to know how this race will turn out. What I can say is not to expect many updates between now and next week. This one is going to come down to the wire, and whatever candidate ends up winning will do so by a very tight margin. No matter the result, I expect a recount will be triggered leading us to even more waiting to find out the official results.

My suggestion to everyone is to be patient and let this process play out. I have no reason to be worried about the results of this race, which is already much closer than anyone expected it would be going into Election Day. After all, CO-3 is an R+6 district. The race being this close is something no one expected.

Here's a chart with all of the data I discussed:

[melishade]

So, if you don’t know (or somehow been sleeping under a rock), the Midterms has been happening in the United States. Some losses were expected, Some victories were won, all in all, could’ve been a lot worse.

BUT! The most unexpected race to happen as of this moment is this:

Do you know how FUCKING CLOSE that is?! It’s by 64 votes!!!! This race is going to be decided by 64 votes!!!! Is there going to be a recount?! Possibly! But this is so fucking intense!

So when people say they don’t vote because they think it doesn’t matter, they are lying to themselves!!!!!! YOUR VOTE FUCKING MATTERS!!!!!! 

[dontmeantobepoliticalbut]

One of the most-watched races the day after Election Day is Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert's reelection bid — which is under serious threat from Democratic challenger Adam Frisch.

Frisch held a slight lead over Boebert for much of Tuesday night; as of Wednesday afternoon, he enjoyed a razor-thin edge of 50.6% to 49.4%, according to AP.

Boebert has been one of the loudest Republican voices amplifying former President Trump's baseless claims of widespread election fraud, as well as supporting QAnon conspiracy theories. On Election Day, she was one of many Republicans predicting a "red wave" of GOP wins. But late on election night, Boebert prayed with her supporters and said she's hoping to get a boost from in-person voting.

Frisch, viewed as a centrist, previously served on the Aspen City Council. Faced with an opponent with strong name recognition and a penchant for outlandish remarks, Frisch built "a coalition of normal," Colorado Democratic Party Chair Morgan Carroll tells member station Colorado Public Radio.

"He has specifically courted all normal Republicans" in the district, courted independent voters and shored up his base, Carroll said.

Early in her congressional tenure, Boebert drew criticism for insisting she would carry a gun in the Capitol, even after the building came under violent attack. This summer, Boebert's stance on a central U.S. tenet was called into question after she stated, "I am tired of this separation of church and state junk."

[tvnacity]

This shit is crazy. They can’t call this race even though 99% of the votes are in because the margin between these candidates is SIXTY FOUR VOTES. Never believe people who say your one vote doesn’t matter

[facialhairy]

Adam Frisch

[makingdonalddrumpfagain]

[tomorrowusa]

Lauren Boebert only narrowly was re-elected to the US House last year. Her Democratic opponent Adam Frisch is running again in 2024 and he has greatly outpaced the far right Boebert in fundraising.

Adam Frisch, the Democrat who came close to beating Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) in last year’s midterms, raised three times more than the incumbent in second-quarter fundraising as he seeks a 2024 rematch. Frisch’s campaign reported bringing in $2.6 million from April through June, which is more than triple Boebert’s roughly $818,000, the Colorado Sun reports. It’s the second quarter in a row Frisch has outraised Bobert — he raised $1.7 million in the first quarter, while Boebert reportedly brought in around $764,000. Frisch’s campaign earlier this month said the second-quarter amount they raised breaks the record “for the largest quarterly fundraising for a U.S. House challenger in the year before an election, excluding special elections and self-funded campaigns.”

Boebert won by the narrowest margin of any House member of the 118th Congress.

Money is important but it's votes that really matter. If you know anybody eligible to vote in CO-03, try to get them energized about next year's rematch.

The district is HUGE – it takes up almost half the state.

If you are thinking of moving to Colorado and would like to have a large political footprint, CO-03 may be the right place!

[harriswalz4usabybr]

Speech Tim Walz gave in Denver, CO!

~BR~

[taiwantalk]

Frisch did the right thing at this point. And as Boebert said contrary to her prior election 2020 result denial, it’s very accurate to withstand recount.

[george-rr-binks]

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