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daveandtrev · 4 years

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How the heckfire did we get here? A journey into the 2019 Andre Johnson Sweepstakes League

To my collegiate brood who has become like family, to my partners in weekend rendezvous, to my loyal participants in chatting about all things sports – this article is a labor of love for you. Every year I get coerced into preparing another one of these but this year not a single inquiry. Perhaps the luster of this treatise has worn off, or perhaps we assumed it was inevitable – Dave would eventually wander his way into his cold, dark fantasy football laboratory and emerge with a new concoction of thoughts on the AJSL that he would be eager to spill in a few thousand words. If the last assumption was yours, well then you know your commissioner well. And in the end, this piece. My hope remains to both educate and entertain.

To let you into the mind of your commissioner, I view each season as a journey that bears a resemblance to all journeys. Hopeful sojourners equipped with all that they can carry in hopes of future glory. Along the way, pitfalls and roadblocks (injuries, underperformance) threaten the journey’s success and oftentimes we require a bit of help from unforeseen resources (waiver claims, trades). After many weeks, the landscape seems foggier – where again did we start? Where has the journey detoured from expectation, both in triumph and in defeat? Therein lies the premise of this endeavor: to grasp, understand, and wrestle through in order to get our heads around each season’s “happenings”. We know we will encounter humility and perseverance (by this point all of our best laid plans have been altered). I’m sure we will find a stroke of genius or two to keep our spirits high. And you can count on biased interpretation from a guy whose authority is summed up by “I spend a lot of time thinking about this”. Thrilling. With that, come and explore the highlands and the low country with me. Let’s open together the tome of the 11th edition of the Andre Johnson Sweepstakes League.

With the stage set, allow me to redirect you towards the stats, candid thoughts, definitive (hindsight) analysis and forward looking predictions that can only come from yours truly. Please react accordingly with nods and smiles. Lets take a look at my post-draft thoughts for context on where we thought this year would be headed from the journey’s inception. (Or at least close to inception – with our late draft, I formed the basis of these thoughts after week 1. So I did have a single data point to go by).

Tier I - The Julio Jones tier

As its namesake implies, I projected the teams in this tier to consistently perform above average while also maintaining “Joe Flacco in the playoffs” elite upside on any given week. As you can see, this does not include my own team. You know what that means -> “If you don’t like your own draft…”

Cristian

Phil

Tier II - The Matt Stafford tier

The talent is there. The ability is never in question. And most of the time, the job gets done. Are you excited about Stafford, either as a Lions fan or a fantasy owner? Sort of? I expect a decent performance with ups and downs along the way when im cheering on Stafford. And he’s the perfect description of my expectations for this tier. Above average in spurts, but right around average in the long run.

Soape

Trevor

Grundy

Dave

Tier III - The Peyton Hillis and Trent Richardson memorial tier

Before you dismiss the tier names and remember the downfall of these careers, first remember that both had studly seasons as members of the Browns. Hillis finished as the RB2 in 2010, Richardson as the RB8 in 2012. Its just that neither could find consistency over their careers and ultimately sputtered out without tasting prolonged glory. That’s the fear with these teams. We know any team can pop off for 150+ points, but can these teams hit 120 consistently? I have my concerns.

Scooter

Jack

Swave

Jason

And really, when we go back to careers like Trent and Peyton’s and remember that it was indeed the Browns that squandered such promise, let’s remember the wisdom that our tallest leaguemate passed out like a life preserver on draft night: The Browns, the Factory of Sadness themselves, will surely, inevitably, Browns. (Jason -> You may consider asking for this shirt for Christmas. I want to make sure you are clear on this during the next year’s draft.)

Let’s dig into the strengths for each team on draft day:

Tier I - The Julio Jones tier

Tier 3 RB’s

When you see Phil Stark make the championship, you go after the guys that got him there. Cristian pounced on 2018 stalwarts Davante Adams and DeAndre Hopkins, keeping them tied together for consecutive years. The next idea was to pack a bunch of mid tier RBs onto the squad and hope that one or two would differentiate. Or maybe better stated, the plan was hoping Chris Carson would fall in price as a result of never nominating him. In the meantime, he would purchase 3 contingency plans. Cristian wisely used the mid-draft break to gather his thoughts and recognize his hole at RB, determining to have at least two of Carson, Jacobs, Michel and Freeman. He bagged all 4, culminating in Carson for $18 late in the proceedings. This was a strategy that I suggested to Monica last year, resulting in a backfield of Jamaal Williams, Jay Ajayi, Alex Collins, and Lamar Miller. That turned out poorly, but I think the method has some merit and I was intrigued to watch this experiment get its second trial.

As for insurance on his receiving studs, Will Fuller and Dede Westbrook were two of my favorites. Nick Foles is known to love targeting slot receivers and Fuller is practically automatic when healthy with DeShaun. Even his backup (to the backups) at RB (Devin Singletary) seemed to be the starter on a run-first team when LeSean McCoy was released, further insulating the running back fortification that had been built up. Depth was not going to be an issue at RB or WR.

Moving on, TE was going to be a challenge, though Cristian had snagged Mark Andrews after week 1 and I figured he would plug the gap if Vance McDonald couldn’t. (As we know now, he could’t).

Probably the biggest change between draft night and my thoughts after Week 1 occurred with Cristian’s quarterbacks. Sitting next to him on draft night, I know he believed he overpaid for his QBs when Lamar and Kyler started going for less than Dak and Brady. As we flipped to Week 1, we saw that the rumors of Kellen Moore’s influence were manifesting almost instantly and that Brady was about to import Antonio Brown for week 2. Unreal. The two unexpected studs at QB catapulted my prediction for this team all the way to the top.

The Michael Scarns

America’s favorite boss is commemorated every year in the AJSL and typically gets a draft day listing towards the bottom as my flesh and blood juxtaposes right brain creativity with my left brained desire for structure. Not the case this year – Phil’s team was an early favorite of mine.

Grabbing onto a top-2 RB is a great way to set up your team’s upside. Then grabbing Melvin Gordon’s potential fill-in looked like a great step 2, especially after a Week 1 where Ekeler ceded hardly any work to Justin Jackson. (We weren’t certain what that split would be on draft night). Marlon Mack had limitations (doesn’t catch passes, maybe needs Andrew Luck to keep the offense on schedule?), but $5 was an easy price to pay to find out more. And I liked Guice as a great late round candidate – he’s a talent-heavy back who was ticketed for primary work.

I saw upside coming out in spades with the QB choices – apparently only Phil was paying attention last year when Josh Allen was the QB2 from week 12 onward. $1 to see if he could run it back? Wow. (And yes, I snagged Jameis for $2 myself, brain fart for punting on Allen’s rushing upside). Kyler Murray is someone I liked a lot for his role in captaining Kliff’s new offense and his rushing ability that we had all heard about. This pair cost $6. Would you be surprised to see this duo combine for 80 points during a week? Tremendous Upside Potential.

The receiving room of Evans, Diggs and Cooper boasted plenty of star power and the aforementioned Kellen Moore effect made Cooper look even better after his week 1. The Vikes commitment to ground and pound had me concerned about Diggs volume (not his talent), and he was my pick to share the flex spot with Mack. Picking up John Brown late seemed like a great complement to sling-it-deep Josh Allen’s tendencies and I liked him to spot start during good matchups. I haven’t even mentioned former Antonio Gates caddie Hunter Henry playing with known tight end lover Phil Rivers. Even with his injury in Week 1, Phil’s early pickup of TJ Hockenson figured to fill that gap and potentially give Phil a dilemma when Henry returned.

Tier II - The Matt Stafford tier

Goffam City

With our team moving from 12 to 10 teams this year, we essentially added 28 players back into the player pool (16 rosterable players – D/K = 14 players * 2 teams). This boosts the floor of all teams to where there are so few holes on rosters. In this scenario, grabbing studs is even more important as they are the rare differentiators. I really like grabbing as many as you can on draft night and Joel did his best work here, nabbing Julio, James Conner, and Alvin Kamara (all while contemplatively swirling his whiskey). You really need to hit on your surrounding talent when you go for the studs-n-scrubs approach, and I thought Sammy Watkins and Duke Johnson were affordable pieces who could develop into plus starters as the season went on. Dante Pettis had the potential of a rising sophomore who was being treated strangely in camp (not running with the 1s in preseason games) but had the tools and pedigree (2nd round pick) to succeed here too.

Trey Burton wasn’t on my radar, but Jared Cook figured to be a new toy for Drew Brees. I liked having both options available. Quarterback projected to be solid if not spectacular with Goff and Russell, and I liked their affordability overall ($9 combined). Russell’s Seahawks were expected to be run heavy which would supposedly cap his upside. But as Joel (smartly) gathered, Russell Wilson is very good. At a $3 price tag, the rest of the league didn’t want to find out if Russ could overcome his circumstances (and we know how that turned out.)

Overall, I figured a few of these role players would pop to support the studs and position this team right behind the elite.

That’s My QB

Coming in costume on a mission to re-establish the formula of previous glory, Trevor handled sticker duty while deftly selecting top tier passing game options. Unsurprisingly, Trevor landed Keenan Allen at the top of his draft board, selecting the Chargers receiver for the 4th straight year. He also snapped the author’s own streak of AJ Green selections at three years by nabbing the injured Bengal for $15. The question was “How much would he cost?” for Trevor regarding Travis Kelce – the end result was never in doubt. Previous tight end connoisseur Monica was not present to make Trevor sweat, but her parting instruction on my leaving for draft day was stated clearly. “Make him pay up”. I feel like $38 was enough to do her proud. Godwin, Edelman, and Woods were added to create a super stable of receivers while also creating a likely mid season trade with a running back heavy team. (This is Trevor’s team, so readers will understand that I liked all of these players. #MandateForever).

Trevor treated running back like Cristian did if Cristian spent $10 less on everyone. The only luxury was Tevin Coleman (who wrecked his ankle after week 1). James White at $8 was my favorite selection – we know he’s got a solid 10 point floor and can add more if the other New England backs go down. Miles Sanders intrigued me as well – if Philly were to move away from their RBBC, Sanders would be the likely beneficiary.

Finishing up at QB, Lamar Jackson at $6 was good value on draft day and Week 1 showed us his upside immediately (and that Baltimore was going to be able to throw, which was still a guess on draft day). QBs who run have upside, period. Lamar runs a lot. Personally I always get a little queasy on guys like that holding up (I’ve been burned by RG3 and Kaepernick before) but $6 is so little risk, especially with guaranteed QBs on waivers.

Overall, this team was a running back away from jumping up to the next tier.

Coach Davis All Stars

Taking a page out of Phil Stark’s book in continuing to honor a beloved icon with his team name (as you can see, Phil Stark = trendsetter), the 5th iteration of the Coach Davis All-Stars hoped to finally launch Grundy into Diamond status on Yahoo and land him his first AJSL championship (Lord knows he’s due). With his whiskey in one hand, Grundy went toe to toe with the aforementioned Phil Stark to battle for the rights to Odell Beckham, culminating in an intimate staring-while-bidding contest. While the rest of us shifted uncomfortably in our seats, Grundy secured his man for $50, holding a different view from Cristian on what the Browns were about to do this year (cue Raybon). Following that bet was what I ended up pining over post-draft: the Dave Johnson/Dalvin Cook combination at running back. Punch drunk from a 5 hour adrenaline rush, I stumbled to the draft board knowing that this combo was going to absolutely work over the league. I envied silently and then shared my plight with a few passer bys, realizing once more why Grundy has the win percentage that he does. Great picks, friend.

How does this team land in this tier after my man crush on the running backs? Welp, I had reservations on Tyler Lockett (Russell may not throw much and Lockett wasn’t always emphasized last year even when Baldwin went down – his stats were good but he survived on deep balls and caught almost all of them. We know that doesn’t typically repeat in subsequent years.) While I liked Engram fine, I wondered who else would step up in the flex? MVS had talent but uncertain opportunity. I was 100% done with Donte Moncrief when he couldn’t perform with Andrew Luck (I bid $22 in 2016 for his services, still salty). Everyone else was a $1 flier. The flex can be an easy hole to fill if you nab a waiver pickup, but it’s a holeI downgrade for in post draft rankings (this essentially also means your depth is lacking).

With Rodgers a stud but Ryan a question mark for me (look at his previous years, dude finished QB15 in 2017 and QB18 in 2015. Not convinced he would be more than average despite spike years finishing QB2 in 2016 and 2018), I placed this team in the middle of the pack, content to wait for answers in my areas of concern. (Those running backs are still beautiful though, especially this guy).

WinningStreakToSAGA

Welp, here’s my draft day assessment. Dave, congrats - You aren’t in the Browns tier. But let me tell you, there’s going to be a hill to climb. At least we came up with a team name by week 4. Oh yeah, we threw a kick ass draft party too. Chin up, pal.

I came into this draft wanting to go heavy running back and was delighted to find my old friend Zeke Elliot available for a discount (had him going for $50+) with his contract situation in the air. Things sort of got hazy when I ended up with Melvin Gordon (thought he was worth $20 and grabbed him for $13) and then decided to run it back with Pat Mahomes. (Some had questions here – I think the elite QBs become worth the expenditure at some point and Pat Mahomes was the surest elite QB we’ve seen in a while. He ended up going for $30 which comes out to player #24 overall or a 3rd round pick in traditional snake draft. That’s where he was going in a 1 QB league, and we start 2….Really though, I was wearing his jersey and the allure of prior glory could not be overcome in the heat of the moment.)

I then made my big gamble on Juju, and as I’ve shared on the group text, this was prompted by that one article you read a day before the draft that comes back to mind as a player is being bid. I’ve done plenty of second guessing here, but my biggest lesson (as seems to always pop up) is to go over your plan before the draft. Read it and read it again. Know where you can take risks, and know where you want to attack. During the draft, there’s too much stimuli to reliably adjust on the fly.

Hilton was a calculated risk (we know his talent is good), Fournette was a calculated risk (we know his opportunity will be good), OJ Howard was on purpose and I perceived low risk. DJ Moore was a steal in my opinion as he was coming on last year with Cam. I was fine with Jameis, but was a bit sad I didn’t pick up a running QB with prices as low as they were.

Overall, tons of risks (Zeke, Gordon, Hilton, Fournette) and not enough real substance to bank on. I felt like I had undervalued assets, but I needed most of them to pan out to be successful. If not, disaster loomed.

Tier III - The Peyton Hillis and Trent Richardson memorial tier

Bob Kraft’s Day Spa

Scooter advertises his friendship with Bob Kraft in promoting his leisure activities, remembering the good ol’ days of R&R with Robert by his side. Classy.

Lets start with what we like. I liked the aggressive nature at QB and both of these guys fit as upside plays – Wentz has been reliable when healthy and was importing known QB-elevator DeSean Jackson. DeShaun had been suggested by some (including my beloved Evan Silva) as the overall QB1 over even Mahomes, citing his rushing upside and return of weapons . I like going QB heavy in the right situations when the league has decided that they aren’t as valuable. (As my Pat Mahomes pick suggests). George Kittle was a stud last year and figured to carry that over with the 49ers failing to establish a #1 WR in training camp. I viewed him as a differentiator at TE.

Antonio Brown highlighted the skill players (he was only in the middle of his diabolical plan to exit Oakland at this point) which was potentially a nice get but had its own question marks (new team, QB who typically throws short, weird preseason injuries/behavior). Kupp, Alshon, and Boyd were all fine but didn’t move the needle for me. Same with the Kerryon/Dame Williams combo at RB. And same with the depth (Fitzgerald/Marvin/LeSean/Lindsey). I didn’t see many holes on this team but I wasn’t sure where the upside was coming from. Kerryon was the best bet to smash followed by LeSean (great grab for $1) in my opinion.

Overall, the lack of high end skill players was my biggest concern for this team.

Da Bear Necessities

Jack Holmer went straight back to my childhood in the early 90s with his recollection of a Jungle Book classic, celebrating the simplicity of living as a predator in a tropical forest. “The Bear Necessities will come to you”. Words to live by, my friend.

Mike Thomas and Le’Veon Bell were the headliners of this draft class, and while Thomas’s domination is without question (never finished below WR10 on a per-game basis in his career), Le’Veon’s new situation was a bit murky (Would he get touches like he did in Pit? Would his O-line and QB help him like they did in Pit? RBs generally transition to new teams easier than WRs, but the Pit situation is unique for RB production) Assuming Le’Veon could pass those tests, the remaining core of Kenny Golladay, Mark Ingram and Joe Mixon gave this team firepower from every angle. Even better for Kenny G when we found out Matt Stafford intended on throwing the ball deep after Week 1. Ingram’s Ravens looked like world beaters themselves and showed that RBs attached to running QBs always have a place at the top of fantasy scoreboards. Mixon’s role also had potential growth under new coach Zac Taylor who was intending on implementing Rams concepts in Cincinnati.

Gallup was another who looked like a steal after Week 1 and I definitely liked the potential of Christian Kirk in that 4-wide AZ offense. Dave Montgomery was a luxury that could be waited on to contribute and Sutton and waiver pickup McLaurin also showed early promise. The skill positions looked above average right from the get go here.

Unfortunately for me, that’s where my optimism ceased. Darnold and Trubisky weren’t getting it done for me, and neither was perennial borderline-starter Austin Hooper. This team was the inverse of Scooter’s (who was strong at QB and TE) and I felt deserved to be ranked at the same level. Upside was probably easier to see here, but the holes were also more glaring.

Daniel and the Shew

This name would have made zero sense on draft day – more appropriately this team could have taken on Benjamin Feels the Brees as its moniker (though Yahoo’s character limit would have probably stopped the idea cold). Big Ben and Drew Brees gave Swave the oldest combination of quarterbacks and with both known for their home game prowess (and road struggles), they figured to mix in spiked weeks with untimely duds. Over the long haul, I expected average production with an acknowledgement of week winning upside under the right conditions.

CMC was the big haul and I loved Swave’s guts to go big here, spending a league high $59. No sense in leaving money on the table – and we know from Swave’s history that he likes to accumulate depth late in the draft. This was a pristine move for someone who likes to stock his bench – make sure you have at least one warhorse to supplement your depth. Well done here.

Flanking CMC was Aaron Jones and Adam Thielen, both with question marks (will Aaron Jones be a bellcow and will Minnesota ever pass?) but are clear top end talents when utilized well. I liked Cooks as a consistent play and didn’t mind the Josh Gordon/Calvin Ridley combo to fill the flex. I guessed he wouldn’t find many holes in his receiver unit, though I did wonder how much top end production we would see.

Derrick Henry rounded out the RB room and although I’m not crazy about his lack of pass catching, I liked his price ($7) as Swave could count any contribution from Henry as a bonus (and we know that Henry can go off). Lets all do ourselves a favor and watch the best run of 2018 unfold once more, this time with additional commentary. (Seriously, required watching).

Njoku and Ebron were going to duke out the TE position, and frankly, that’s a formula for a $20 tight end claim come week 1.

Overall, this team was CMC + a bunch of promising parts. I will say this about Swave’s previous teams – he typically is able to mine a gemstone out of his depth by the time the season ends. I believed that this would need to happen once again in order for his path to victory to truly open up this season.

WeAllRammedIntoDaPit

You knew this one was coming. But let’s keep on this roll and reminisce a bit more. After living in Indiana for 3 years, the existence of Pawnee is not a stretch for the imagination (testify, Trevor).

As with other teams taking on the moniker of unfortunate events, winning fantasy weeks can be a bit more of a challenge than initially forseen. (Ex: defeatedseason #G1, 5-9 final record. Duck Attack, 2-12. The Schiano Stink, 6-8. CelektnNameErtzMyHed, 4-10. Of course we had the declining HurricaneScooter that ended up as a rainshower (lost first 11 games) before regaining its strength with three late season wins. I can find one positive outcome – the Butt Fumbles of 2013 went 11-3 and made the championship game.) Hence, I needed to see overwhelming evidence of burgeoning breakout players in order to feel confident in predicting season-end success.

We learned a valuable lesson on draft weekend: The Pit, even when its presence is known, will still rise up and take its prey the moment you let your guard down. Tyreek Hill, established stud of Jason’s squad playing for the high-flying Chiefs, succumbed to the Pit of Misery, breaking his collarbone during week 1 and setting up an extended absence that really left this team shorthanded. After Tyreek, I had a hard time envisioning upside. Gurley had a chronic knee issue, Chubb was a 2 down back in 2018 rumored but not assured of gaining passing down work, Zach Ertz faced stiffer competition for targets with DeSean coming to town, Allen Robinson played for a Bears team that’s known for spreading targets around, Jarvis Landry had incoming target competition from OBJ, Desean Jackson was changing teams, Jordan Howard had busted before and Kenyan Drake had never been a featured back. Now to be fair, many of these players had paths to upside and consistency but I had questions about most.

My favorite picks were Cam Newton, who continues to create rushing-based upside, and Curtis Samuel who I liked to take a step forward this year as one of Cam’s two primary targets along with DJ Moore. Baker didn’t run much last year so his upside was tied to his offensive scheme and his pass catchers. I figured he’d be about average with a path to a strong season if the OBJ connection took off.

Overall, I felt like this team really needed to hit on quite a bit of its 50/50 players and get a speedy recovery from Tyreek in order to emerge alive from the pit.

Now that we are sufficiently anchored – where have the last 8 weeks taken us? Well for starters, the Bills are in prime wildcard position and the 4-12 Niners of 2018 are undefeated. The ship named “What we thought we knew” has been rocked. The remaining fallout is a muddied combination of 1) exactly what we expected and 2) typical unforeseen NFL chicanery. Of course this has trickled down to our fantasy scoring - look at this TE scoring list. Half of the top 10 were undrafted! And look who’s on top!

Lets get a handle on what each AJSL team is likely thinking going forward. (All ppg figures reference ppg while starting that player)

I like my odds of getting to the dance

The Michael Scarns: 140 ppg – Currently in the driver’s seat with 7 wins, The Scarns rode an unbelievable start by Austin Ekeler and a scintillating trio at the WR position (ranking #2 in the league for points at the WR1, WR2, and Flex postions) to pole position. Oh yeah, those ranks include only 2 weeks of recently-acquired Julio Jones. Gees. I expect both of the running quarterbacks (Kyler and Josh Allen) to have a few more spiked weeks and the return of Hunter Henry to boost this team’s floor even higher (currently ranked 8th in TE scoring). This is clearly the team to beat.

Coach Davis All-Stars: 144 ppg – Grundy leads the league in expected wins – weeks scoring above 130 – at 6 (I explain this a bit more below). Best case scenario Dalvin Cook has emerged as the consensus RB2 overall, averaging 22.3 ppg with 6 of 8 games over 20 points. The bedrock of Coach Davis’s finest is supported by a consistent QB duo (Rodgers and Ryan have Grundy pulling down the 2nd most combined QB points at 42.4 ppg), Dave Johnson (hoping he gets healthy again – Grundy is #2 in RB1 points) and Even Engram (11.3 ppg). The Browns have been a mess for OBJ (10.7 ppg – essentially turning him into a flex play) – if that gets straightened out, the Scarns may find themselves with competition.

I have the tiebreaker locked up, but I am terrified that I may not win enough games

Tier 3 RBs Patriots Defense: 140 ppg – Cristian finally got the team name right. The biggest defensive storyline in my memory has been impossible to compete with. The Scarns are 2nd in the league in defensive scoring at 9.6 ppg. Cristian is 1st in league scoring at 20.4, including 23.3 ppg with the Pats D (Cristian scored 0 defensive points in week 1!). Incredible – the Pats D has performed like a #1 defense plus a flex player (Flex average is 10.6 points across all teams). Unfathomable. Maddening to Jack, Grundy and myself who were outbid for their services in week 2. Elsewhere, the QB combo is solidly above average (ranking 3rd in QB1 and QB2 scoring) and Hopkins/Adams haven’t played close to their potential, signaling additional upside. RB2 has to get better (9th in scoring), though figuring out who to play between Sony Michel, Devonta Freeman and Devin Singletary has been an adventure thus far. This will start to improve and with the 2nd most points secured, Cristian really just needs the schedule to participate in order to secure a playoff berth.

2019’s guy getting screwed by the schedule

That’s my QB: 134 ppg – Ive estimated each team to have “earned” a win by scoring 130 points (typically this is 120, but the 10 team format seems to have inflated that number). That’s my QB has faced a team scoring 129 or more each of the first seven weeks until mercifully drawing Soape’s surrender squad in Week 8. Nobody else is even close to this mark - Cristian leads the rest of the league with five opponents putting up that many points, but everyone else is at 4 or less. So not only has Trevor seen plenty of points scored against his team, but its been a steady onslaught. The guy has put up 5 performances worthy of a victory himself (2nd only to Grundy, tied with Cristian) and has only won 3. Yeah. Here’s to friendlier shores, my friend.

Team wise, Lamar Jackson is insane at 25.8 ppg, QB1 overall. Mahomes finished at 27.1 last year (if my memory serves me), this is getting close to that level. Trevor leads the league in flex scoring (thanks, Edelman) and is 2nd at TE. The kicker is the kicker – Trevor sits in 10th here as well as RB2, the land of James White and Miles Sanders. That will likely putter on for a bit more, a chink in the armor that Trevor hopes will be overcome by Kennan Allen’s return to form and/or Travis Kelce starting to experience touchdown regression (currently only scored twice).

I know my team isn’t bad. I’m not sure if my team is actually good.

WinningStreaktoSAGA: 127 ppg – Still don’t like handicapping myself in these papers, but this is certainly the appropriate category. The strength of the team is RB (Zeke and Fournette help me rank 3rd at RB1 and RB2 scoring.) That’s really it – Pat Mahomes played 3 games with his head on fire (28.9 ppg) before succumbing to an ankle injury and eventually a kneecap dislocation (15.9 ppg during that stretch). Fameis is fine when I trust him (18.5 ppg) but like so many of us, I have bailed during his breakout games. OJ Howard was a disaster (and truly one of my most confident draft choices), though Darren Waller should alleviate that position going forward. The biggest issue has been the Flex where I rank dead last at 7.3ppg. By sheer regression you would think this would start to move upward. The team needs more firepower from somewhere other than RB to make noise, but where will it come from? A bunch of question marks among traditionally strong performers (Mahomes, Hilton, Juju, Melvin Gordon) leave this team relying on breaks/hot streaks/good luck in hoping for an extended season.

Daniel and the Shew: 125 ppg – CMC and Aaron Jones, good Lord! The only thing keeping Swave from sweeping #1 ranks in RB1 and RB2 are missing Aaron Jones breakout games (missed a 23 and 41 pt game) for the allure of Derrick Henry (be strong Swave!) As is, CMC’s otherworldly 27.0 ppg has Swave pacing RB1 scoring and the Jones/Henry combo sits in 4th for RB2. Justin Tucker has proven to be worth the $2 (I think?) by leading Swave to #1 in kicker scoring. The problem has been QB, (Daniel Jones sucked for 4 games with 11.4 ppg), TE (6.5 ppg aggregate with TJ Hockenson still not finding his week 1 stroke) and WR2 (Brandin Cooks 7.2 ppg in a broken Rams passing game). DJ Chark should help cover Cooks and Brees return allows Minshew (respectable 17.7 ppg) to cover Jones’s old spot. Never say never to a team with the best player in the league – especially a team who has already banked 5 wins thus far.

Da Bear Necessities: 120 ppg – Mitchell Trubisky is the excess weight on a sinking ship. I admire Jack’s loyalty, he’s a fan’s fanatic. But I think we’ve seen enough. He’s averaging 10.6 ppg (again, aiming for 20 ppg) and even removing the game he was injured mid-game still brings him to 12.7 ppg. Not to be outdone, Sam Darnold checks in at 11.6 ppg. Holy cow. Its also not helping that Le’Veon hasn’t found his groove (11.7 ppg). In brighter news, Mark Ingram has been solid (14.9 ppg) and Michael Thomas has been phenomenal (18.4 ppg, Jack leads all teams in WR1 points.) I’m keeping track of waiver transactions and how many make an impact – Jack leads the league in playing 9 different players purchased from the waiver pool (not looking at K/DEF in this analysis). Only 1 in 13 attempts has said waiver players hit either 10 pts for RB/WR/TE or 20 pts for a QB. Tough sledding here. I do think Le’Veon finds a higher gear and that Golladay’s presence in the lineup improves in the second half of the year, though the biggest jump will come when Jack finds top 20 quarterback play. (QB 20 sits at 15.3 ppg for the record).

A long ways from the Whiskery Phil League

Bob Kraft’s Day Spa: 124 ppg – This is the other team suffering from a fickle schedule’s seasonal musings: Scooter has accumulated 4 expected wins, only winning 3 times. And the upcoming schedule is unforgiving: 5 of the 6 remaining games are against the top 6 in total points scored. No rest for the weary. The path to overcoming the schedule rests on the shoulders of DeShaun Watson, who is neck and neck with Lamar Jackson at 25.1 ppg. Cooper Kupp is the other standout at 17.3 ppg, giving Scooter the #1 ranking at the WR2 position. The biggest hole attempting to be filled is the other WR spot – the one Antonio Brown is supposed to be filling. The fill-ins have averaged just 8.3 ppg, a league low for that position. Unfortunately with Kerryon hitting IR and the Chiefs backfield never really settling on one player, I see the Day Spa shuttering early, and truthfully, good riddance (to the spa of course.)

This pit is bigger than I thought

WeAllRammedIntoDaPit: 116 ppg – Rough year. The pit dwellers are top 3 in scoring in only one category: Kicker (2nd). Jason has tried to replace an injured Cam Newton to the tune of 11.5 ppg and Baker Mayfield was almost worse (13.0 ppg). Nick Chubb got the pass down work we were hoping for and has prospered (18.3 ppg). GurleyMan has been at least startable (13.0 ppg). Allen Robinson has overcome the Trubisky trainwreck (14.6 ppg). What the heckfire happened to Zach Ertz? (8.4 ppg even with all of the injuries at receiver in Philly.) Tyreek’s injury didn’t help and neither has Mahomes’ – but his presence lifts this team’s ceiling and positions it as a postseason spoiler down the stretch.

Fantasy football is a waste of time and fundamentally unfair (until next year)

Goffam City/Little Mermaids/Just Here for 2020: 114 ppg – There are years where it all feels like a bad dream and that’s been the case so far for Soape. Kamara and Conner have staved off injury (to self and team’s QB) to post a respectable 15.7 ppg each, but you’re hoping maybe one of these gets to 20+ ppg on draft day. Somehow Soape’s WR2 position has only 1 game scoring over 10 pts all year (and that was 10.4). Yikes. That WR2 position owns a league low 6.7 ppg. I wrote down “TE is a STEAMING TRASH HEAP” in my notes after seeing the 4.3 ppg average. Also this team’s defense scoring is league worst (5.8 ppg). The one bright spot? QB2. Russell Wilson surprised most of us and has been lethal when allowed to throw, scoring 23.3 ppg after costing a mere $3 on draft day. Well done on that call, Joelseph. Good luck on beating the real-life Dolphins win total.

6,277 words. Are you stuffed? Thanks for sitting by the fire and chatting with me in the midst of our journey – the road to glory becomes narrower with each passing week. May the road rise up to meet you. (Well really, three of you. I’ll take the other spot.)

Indubitably yours,

Dungeonmaster Dave

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martinfzimmerman · 7 years

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Ethereum vs. Tangibleum: Why Cryptocurrencies Can Never Replace Physical Gold

Article provided by our good friends at Hard Assets Alliance.

By Shannara Johnson – August 3, 2107

On June 11, 2017, Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $3,025.47… followed by a 27.7% plunge only four days later.

By July 12, it had lost a total of $12 billion off its value within a month.

Ethereum, another popular cryptocurrency, increased its market share from a mere 5% at the beginning of the year to a breathtaking 30% in June, only to plummet 65% from its record-high by mid-July.

One man who wouldn’t be surprised in the least by this insane level of volatility is Raoul Pal, founder of the monthly investment publication Global Macro Investor and Real Vision television. He is convinced that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are in a bubble and will blow up someday, because “anything that moves exponentially always does.”

A self-proclaimed former Bitcoin “evangelist,” Pal sold his entire position when the currency hit the $2,000 range, for a tenfold return on his investment. Now, he said in an interview at the recent Strategic Investment Conference in Orlando, Florida, he’s watching from the sidelines.

Here are the main problems with Bitcoin as Pal sees them:

1. Bitcoin is not a reliable store of value.

Bitcoin, by design, is limited to 21 million currency units. This arbitrary limit is what makes its value go up as more and more units are being mined. Turns out, though, the cryptocurrency is running into problems as it becomes too popular for its own good.

Bitcoin transactions have skyrocketed in the past years, but since they are being processed in 1MB-size “blocks,” the system has become so sluggish that a purchase might take hours to confirm.

Source: blockchain.info

As a result, rivaling factions in the Bitcoin community have proposed two different software updates to solve the conundrum, but the chances of finding a unanimous solution are slim.

Here’s where Bitcoin’s most coveted trait—the lack of central oversight—might become its downfall, because who will make the decision which method to adopt?

Apparently, the two factions are so at odds that some people call it a “civil war in the blockchain community.”

Raoul Pal does not approve of any of the two proposed alterations: “Now they’re talking about the hard forks changing it, and even if they don’t, the fact that they could, what does that mean in the future? Suddenly, we get to 21 million Bitcoins and they go, ‘No, we were only joking, we’ll print another 21 million.’”

Which, of course, would be the death knell for Bitcoin’s credibility.

How that compares to gold:

Unlike Bitcoin’s, the scarcity of physical gold is not an arbitrary one. Its availability is naturally limited by the number of new gold discoveries and the number of mines being built.

During gold price slumps like the one we saw from 2011 to 2016, very few mining companies will take on the arduous task of building a new mine, which can take five to eight years and several billion dollars, and assumes huge political and regulatory risk.

In gold bear markets, only the highest-grade gold can be mined economically and exploration budgets are slashed, further exacerbating the cycle. As a consequence, gold supply shrinks in years of low prices… and is slow to pick up again as the price rises.

According to figures from a 2013 gold report by Visual Capitalist, all the gold that has been mined throughout human history would fit into a 66-foot cube. Another mind-blowing number: the average grade of gold deposits is 1.01 gram of gold per metric ton of ore (1.01 g/t). That’s the weight of a paperclip or a quarter teaspoon of sugar.

Only 4.5% of all gold deposits in the world have more than 10 g/t. The highest-grade known deposit in the world—the Tau Tona deposit in South Africa—is 28 g/t.

2. Bitcoin is not the only fish in the pond anymore.

Aside from direct competitors like Ethereum, Pal points out that the Indians have already shifted to a cashless society. “This was the great Western Union/Swift payment system we were going to dump on Bitcoin. Well, India went and did it for 1.1 billion people. It’s 50 times faster than Bitcoin, and it’s rolled out and working now.”

If anybody can do it—and do it better and faster—then maybe it’s not that interesting, he concludes.

It looks like cryptocurrencies are becoming a dime a dozen. So far in 2017, there have been about 20 initial coin offerings (ICOs) per month. An ICO is the cryptocurrency equivalent of an IPO in stocks. That means approximately 140 new cryptocurrencies have been launched in 2017… and we’re not even at the end of the year.

Nonetheless, investors are still throwing money at these ICOs. If you had any doubt that cryptocurrencies may be in a bubble, this is a pretty convincing figure.

How that compares to gold:

Even though there are other precious metals like silver, platinum, and palladium, gold has no real competition.

Silver, for example, is typically a byproduct of other mining (gold, copper, zinc, and lead) and not as valuable as gold. To carry around $10,000 in silver would require a suitcase, whereas the same amount in gold fits conveniently into your pocket. And unlike silver, which has many industrial applications in which it gets used up, most of the gold that has ever been mined is still in existence.

Why is gold more popular than platinum or palladium? My guess is that it’s easy to identify by color, whereas the other two could be mistaken for silver. Also, platinum scratches more easily than 14-karat gold and therefore isn’t well suited for certain types of jewelry like rings.

Since antiquity, gold has always been the top choice in cultures where precious metals represented the medium of exchange—and it’s still the top choice as a crisis hedge around the globe.

3. Bitcoin’s blockchain technology will soon be like the Internet—everyone has it.

Looking at the recent developments in blockchain technology, says Pal, big corporations and industry sectors would rather develop their own private ledger systems than using Bitcoin’s public one. It’s entirely possible, he says, that a bunch of insurance companies might get together and create the “insurance blockchain.”

“The Bitcoin community always thinks everybody needs to be on this public ledger,” Pal says. “They don’t realize that they’re a solution looking for a problem. That’s not what everybody needs.”

And as more and more blockchain systems get rolled out, the technology, says Pal, will go the way of broadband and cloud computing, “where you have so many people competing that the value of blockchain technology goes to zero.”

Some investment pros believe that Bitcoin still has a long way to climb once hedge funds rush in—maybe reaching another fivefold return from Bitcoin’s June heights. Pal is skeptical, though: “I don’t know any hedge fund managers who would want to buy into an exponential move.” In any case, he says, “I don’t have the mindset to trade a bubble.”

How that compares to gold:

We already saw that gold is rare enough to be a true store of value. There’s no danger of it becoming ubiquitous, even if a dozen super-high-grade deposits were discovered tomorrow.

And here’s another important point I made in a recent article: If ever the lights go out—for example, due to an electromagnetic pulse, either as an act of war or through a strong solar flare—Bitcoin and Ethereum will vanish instantly. The physical gold you stashed away, on the other hand, will still be there and ready to use as needed.

The post Ethereum vs. Tangibleum: Why Cryptocurrencies Can Never Replace Physical Gold appeared first on Gold Silver Worlds.

from Gold Silver Worlds http://goldsilverworlds.com/money-currency/ethereum-vs-tangibleum-cryptocurrencies-can-never-replace-physical-gold/

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