#emmanuel macron election win

[mariacallous]

From Taiwan and Finland in January to Croatia and Ghana in December, one of the largest combined electorates in history will vote for new governments in 2024. This should be a cause of celebration and a vindication of the power of the ballot box. Yet this coming year is likely to see one of the starkest erosions of liberal democracy since the end of the Cold War. At their worst, the overall results could end up as a bloodbath or, marginally less bleakly, as a series of setbacks.

At first glance, the stats are impressive. Forty national elections will take place, representing 41 percent of the world’s population and 42 percent of its gross domestic product. Some will be more consequential than others. Some will be more unpredictable than others. (You can strike Russia and Belarus from that list.) One or two may produce uplifting results.

However, in the United States and Europe, the two regions that are the cradles of democracy—or at least, that used to project themselves as such—the year ahead is set to be bracing.

It is no exaggeration to say that the structures established after World War II, and which have underpinned the Western world for eight decades, will be under threat if former U.S. President Donald Trump wins a second term in November. Whereas his first period in the White House might be regarded as a psychodrama, culminating in the paramilitary assault on Congress shortly after his defeat, this time around, his menace will be far more professional and penetrating.

European diplomats in Washington fear a multiplicity of threats—the imposition of blanket tariffs, also known as a trade war; the sacking of thousands of public officials and their replacement with politicized loyalists; and the withdrawal of remaining support for Ukraine and the undermining of NATO. For Russian President Vladimir Putin, the return of Trump would be manna from heaven. Expect some form of provocation from the Kremlin in the Baltic states or another state bordering Russia to test the strength of Article 5, the mutual defense clause of the Western alliance.

More broadly, a Trump victory would arguably mark the final dismantling of the credibility of Western liberal democracies. From India to South Africa and from Brazil to Indonesia, countries variously called middle powers, pivot countries, multi-aligned states—or, now less fashionably, the global south—will continue the trend of picking and choosing their alliances, seeing moral equivalence in the competitive bids on offer.

The greatest effect that a Trump return could have would be on Europe, accelerating the onward march of the alt right or far right across the continent. Yet that trend will have gained momentum long before Americans go to the polls. French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz are looking over their shoulders as the second wave of populism affects the conduct of government.

The wedge issue that is threatening all moderate parties is immigration, just as it did in 2015, when former German Chancellor Angela Merkel allowed in more than 1 million refugees from the Middle East in what is now seen as the first wave of Europe’s immigration crisis. This time around, the arguments propagated by the AfD (the far-right Alternative for Germany party), Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in France, and similar groups across the continent have permeated the political mainstream.

The past 12 months have seen European Union decision-making constantly undermined by Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Hungary, particularly further support for Ukraine. For the moment, he stands alone, but he is likely to be joined by others, starting with the newly returned Prime Minister Robert Fico in Slovakia. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has struck a tacit deal with Brussels, remaining loyal on supporting Ukraine (against her instincts and previous statements) in return for effectively being given carte blanche in Italy’s domestic politics.

In September, Austria seems almost certain to vote in a coalition of the far right and the conservatives. A country that has (ever since the withdrawal of Soviet forces in 1955) prized its neutrality and been keen to ingratiate itself with Moscow has already been uncomfortable giving full-scale support to Kyiv. We can expect that support to soon be scaled back.

One of the few countries with a center-left administration, Portugal, will see it join the pack of the right and far right when snap elections are held in March. The previous incumbent, the Socialist Party’s outgoing Prime Minister Antonio Costa, was forced to quit amid a corruption investigation.

The most explosive moment is likely to occur in June, with the elections to the European Parliament. This reshuffling of the Euro-pack, which happens once every four years, was always seen in the United Kingdom as an opportunity to behave even more frivolously than usual. In 2014, the British electorate, in its inestimable wisdom, put Nigel Farage and his U.K. Independence Party in first place, setting in train a series of events that, two years later, led to the referendum to leave the EU.

Having seen the damage wrought by Brexit, voters in the remaining 27 EU member states are not angling for their countries to go it alone. However, many will use the opportunity to express their antipathy to mainstream politics by opting for a populist alternative. Some might see it as a low-risk option, believing that the European parliament does not count for much.

In so doing, they would be deluding themselves. It is entirely possible that the various forces of the far right could emerge as the single biggest bloc. This might not lead to a change in the composition of the European Commission (the diminished mainstream groupings would still collectively hold a majority), but any such extremist upsurge will change the overall dynamics across Europe.

Far-right parties in charge of governments will see themselves emboldened to pursue ever more radical nativist policies. In countries in where they are junior members of ruling coalitions (such as in Sweden), they will apply further pressure on their more mainstream conservative partners to move in their direction.

Conversely, countries that saw a surprising resurgence of the mainstream in national elections this year are unlikely to see that trend maintained. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s success in staving off the right was achieved only by cutting a deal with Catalan separatists. This led to protests by Spanish nationalists and a situation that is anything but stable.

Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s victory in Poland was at least as remarkable because the far-right Law and Justice party (PiS) government had used its years in government to try to skew the media and the courts in its direction. Expect PiS gains in June.

The most alarming result of 2023 was the return to prominence, and the verge of power, of Geert Wilders. The Dutch elections provide a how-not-to guide for mainstream politicians. The willingness of the center-right party of the outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte to contemplate a coalition with Wilders’s Party for Freedom emboldened many voters who had assumed their vote would be disregarded.

In Europe’s biggest economy, Germany, the so-called firewall established by the main parties to refuse to govern with the AfD is beginning to fray. Already, the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is working with them in small municipalities. Friedrich Merz, the CDU leader, has dropped hints that such an option might not be out of the question at the regional level.

If the AfD gains the largest number of seats in the June European Parliament elections (opinion polls currently put it only marginally behind the CDU and ahead of all three parties in Scholz’s so-called traffic light coalition), then the momentum will change rapidly. It could go on to win three of the states in the former communist east—Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg—next autumn. Germany would enter unchartered territory.

These dire predictions could end up being overblown. Mainstream parties in several countries may defy the doom merchants and emerge less badly than forecast. Given recent trends, however, optimism is thin on the ground.

There is one election, however, due to take place in the latter part of 2024 that could produce not just a centrist outcome, but one with a strong majority in its parliament. Britain, the country that left the heart of Europe, the island that until recently was run by a clown, could emerge as the lodestar for modern social democracy. The irony would be lost on no one.

[parcequecestnotreprojeeeet]

Hello! It’s Winter! This story came to me at 4:30 am 🤭

The grocery store was surprisingly empty for a Sunday morning. Brigitte was used to strolling through the busy aisles, bumping into her husband’s coworkers or students of hers. Today, it seemed like no one was around except for 2 giggling girls in the cereal aisle.

Turning the corner, Brigitte was shocked when she got a better look at them. They weren’t teenagers like she had suspected. The giggles were coming from two adult women approximately 10 years younger than herself.

Brigitte pretended to be interested in cereal to get a closer listen to their scandalous conversation.

“He’s so good-looking!” The blonde woman squealed.

“Good looking? That’s an understatement! He’s unbelievably sexy!!! Ugh! I would do anything to get him into my bed!” The redhead added. “I really hope he wins. I wouldn’t mind staring at that gorgeous face for 5 years”

“It would be a dream. Unfortunately, he’s a bit inexperienced” the blonde sighed. “Besides, hot guys statistically never become President”

“Yeah, but I bet Macron isn’t inexperienced where it counts” The redhead blushed when she saw Brigitte.

“Oh, I’m sorry, Madame, my friend and I didn’t see you there. We were just discussing the upcoming election”

Brigitte swallowed. “It’s fine. Have a nice day”

These 2 women had no idea who she was - thank God - so Brigitte quickly exited the aisle, and headed toward the checkout area.

“Cherie, you’re home already!” Emmanuel wasn’t expecting to see his wife so soon. “You were at the market for less than 15 minutes”

He eyed her single bag of groceries suspiciously. Usually, on a Sunday, Brigitte would come home with a minimum of 6 bags filled to the top of food.

She looked over at her young, desirable husband without saying a word. She could see why women made a fuss over him. He was sexy, in excellent shape, and intelligent - not to mention skilled in bed (but only she knew that).

Emmanuel knew something was wrong. “What happened? Why haven’t you acknowledged me?”

“I’m sorry, darling,” Brigitte whispered. “I had a little run-in at the store”

She caught a glimpse of her reaction in the toaster. Unlike her husband, she wasn’t young or fresh looking. The wrinkles around her eyes seemed to get deeper, and more pronounced every month.

Emmanuel’s ears were perked. “What kind of run-in? Did something happen to you?” He was in full protective husband mode. “Did someone hurt you?”

She ignored his questions, instead asking one herself. “Do you love me?”

Stunned, he wasn’t sure what his wife was getting at. “Of course I do. What kind of question is that? Do I not show you enough?”

Brigitte looked down at the kitchen floor. “You do. I just needed to ask”

“That’s a ridiculous question. You’re the only person I will ever love. Look at everything we’ve been through” Emmanuel pointed out. “You’re my best friend, soulmate, and wife”

“And you don’t think I’m too old?”

“Too old? Where is this coming from? Of course, I don’t! Sometimes you act younger than I do!” Emmanuel declared. “Brigitte, what happened at the store to make you ask these crazy things?”

“Nothing… I was just curious”

He knew his wife was withholding information. When she was upset, hurt or sad, Brigitte stayed silent. With some patience, Emmanuel knew she’d eventually come to him and explain everything.

In the meanwhile, he took her into his arms. “I missed you, Cherie”.

She gently pushed him away and turned to her bag of groceries. Was she going to lose him to another woman? What would happen when/if he came President? Women already threw themselves at him. Would he fall for someone new? There was no way to know.

“Brigitte”. She looked up when he called out her name.

“I love you” He assured her. “A lot”

She smiled … and then unpacked the rest of her grocery bag.

Hellooo Winter! ❤️

I do wonder how many times this actually already happened hahaha and I suppose it’s no secret for Brigitte that women fancy her husband 🤭😏

But bless the poor thing for having doubts for a second there and needed a bit of reassuring from Emmanuel 🥰

Thank you so much, Winter! ❤️❤️❤️

[beardedmrbean]

PARIS (Reuters) - France's far-right scored a historic success in legislative elections on Sunday increasing its number of lawmakers almost tenfold and cementing the party's rise from fringe status to the mainstream opposition.

Since taking the helm of the party in 2011, leader Marine Le Pen has sought to rid the National Front - now called the National Rally (RN) - of the anti-Semitic image it acquired under the nearly 40-year leadership of her father, ex-paratrooper Jean-Marie Le Pen.

Securing 42% in April's presidential election, Le Pen had already tapped into the general disenchantment with President Emmanuel Macron and identifying anger across the country over the rising cost of living and the decline of many rural communities.

On Sunday, she took that one step further. According to estimates, Le Pen's party will win between 85-90 seats, up from just two in 2012 and eight in 2017, which could make it the second-largest party in parliament. Major pollsters last week estimated just 25-50 seats.

"We have achieved our three objectives: that of making Emmanuel Macron a minority president, without control of power and that of pursuing the political recomposition essential to democratic renewal," a triumphant Le Pen told reporters after being re-elected in northern France and vowing to be a respectful opposition.

"And of forming a decisive opposition group against the deconstructors from above, the Macronists, and from below, the Nupes," she added referring to the left wing alliance, which should become the largest opposition bloc in parliament, but whose main far-left party, La France Insoumise, is set to win fewer seats than the RN.

Sunday's result killed a so-called "republican front" of voters of all stripes that had rallied behind a mainstream candidate to prevent the far-right progressing.

It also vindicated Le Pen's strategy to recast the party's image, while also refusing to join forces with pundit-turned- nationalist politician Eric Zemmour after the presidential vote.

While in terms of seats Le Pen's party will be behind the left wing grouping, it will enable the RN to have much more weighting in parliament.

It will, for example, be able to put forward no-confidence votes against the government, send draft legislation to France's top constitutional courts, lead parliamentary commissions and have much more speaking time in the National Assembly.

"We are facing a democratic shock because of a very strong break through by the Rassemblement National," Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire told France 2 television.

[tmarshconnors]

Thoughts on Emmanuel Macron

 Emmanuel Macron is a French politician serving as the President of France since 2017.

Introduction: As an observer of French politics, it is with deep concern and disappointment that I express my dissatisfaction with the leadership of Emmanuel Macron. Despite initial promises of reform, progress, and a new era of politics, Macron's tenure as President of France has been marred by numerous shortcomings and a failure to live up to the expectations set by his campaign. In this post, I will outline some key areas where Macron's leadership has fallen short, leaving many citizens disenchanted and disillusioned. During the 2022 French Presidential elections I wanted Marine Le Pen to win. In the near future. I shall do a post of support for Marine Le Pen.

Elitism and Disconnect: One of the most glaring issues with Macron's leadership is his perceived elitism and disconnect from the everyday struggles of ordinary citizens. His background in finance and his association with the wealthy elite have often overshadowed his ability to relate to and understand the challenges faced by the working class and marginalized communities. This disconnect has bred resentment and further exacerbated the societal divide.

Economic Inequality: Despite claims of economic reform, Macron's policies have failed to address the persistent issue of economic inequality in France. The burden of economic reforms, such as tax cuts for the wealthy and labor market reforms, have fallen disproportionately on the middle and lower classes, while the rich continue to benefit. This approach has widened the wealth gap and contributed to growing social unrest.

Lack of Social Welfare: Macron's presidency has been marked by a perceived lack of attention to social welfare. From the controversial pension reforms to inadequate measures to address poverty and inequality, Macron's policies have often left vulnerable groups behind. The erosion of social safety nets and the failure to adequately address pressing social issues have created a sense of neglect among those who rely on the government for support.

Authoritarian Tendencies: While presenting himself as a progressive and centrist leader, Macron has displayed authoritarian tendencies during his tenure. The heavy-handed response to protests, attempts to curtail freedom of speech, and a perceived disregard for dissenting voices have raised concerns about the erosion of democratic values and the stifling of political discourse. Macron's approach to governance has been marked by a top-down decision-making style that undermines the principles of inclusivity and participatory democracy.

Climate Change Inadequacies: Despite championing himself as a leader committed to addressing climate change, Macron's actions have fallen short of the urgent and ambitious measures needed to combat this global crisis. France's progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions has been slow, and significant environmental concerns such as deforestation and biodiversity loss have not received the necessary attention. Macron's rhetoric on the environment has often surpassed tangible actions.

Conclusion: Emmanuel Macron's presidency has been marked by a series of disappointments and unfulfilled promises. From a perceived elitism and disconnect from ordinary citizens to a failure to address economic inequality and social welfare concerns, Macron's leadership has left many feeling neglected and disillusioned. Furthermore, his authoritarian tendencies and inadequate response to the climate crisis raise questions about his commitment to democratic principles and the well-being of future generations. France deserves a leader who can bridge divides, prioritize social justice, and genuinely address the pressing challenges of our time.

[szepkerekkocka]

How it started:

How it's going:

The Democrats lose at least one house of the US Congress in the November mid-term elections. Democrats lost only one house, and seeing the recent shitshow around Kevin McCarthy, I'd say this one is a draw.

The US opens talks with Russia on the European security order, but there is no large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. Epic fail just as many other analysts did right until 2022.02.24

The developed world learns to live with covid-19. This also underlines China's status as developing.

Emmanuel Macron wins the French presidential election and uses his new mandate to ‘relaunch’ Europe. Macron won, I'm not enough into French politics to judge the second part.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban loses the Hungarian election, but claims he won. Epic fail. Hungary is now officially a stable electoral autocracy. Perhaps it already was in 2018.

Nuclear talks with Iran founder, while the country’s nuclear programme progresses. AFAIK, this described well what happened in 2022.

A faction of the Afghan Taliban overthrows the government. AFAIK none of these predictions came true.

China’s carbon emissions continue to grow rapidly. I could not find data for 2022 with basic websearch (I'm no expert of the area). A Reuters article from November states that China's GHG emissions are expected to fall by 0.9% in 2022, mainly because the zero-COVID policy - then in later years, the growth trends will resume. The zero-COVID policy ended in late 2022. I'd say this prediction did not come true - although not an epic fail like some above.

Protests against high energy prices and the European Green Deal break out across the EU. Did not find any sources on protests nor about how the Fit for 55 package was watered down or not. I'll consider this a miss.

The EU anti-coercion instrument comes into being, but Chinese economic coercion continues. AFAIK the anti-coercion instrument is still in proposal phase. I'll consider this a miss.

Bonus: Private space flight suffers its first fatal accident. No fatal accidents in 2022.

Summary: 3.5/11

[newstfionline]

Tuesday, June 21, 2022

How much for gas? Around the world, pain is felt at the pump (AP) At a gas station near the Cologne, Germany, airport, Bernd Mueller watches the digits quickly climb on the pump. “I’m getting rid of my car this October, November,” said Mueller, 80. “I’m retired, and then there’s gas and all that. At some point, you’ve got to scale back.” Across the globe, drivers like Mueller are rethinking their habits and personal finances amid skyrocketing prices for gasoline and diesel, fueled by Russia’s war in Ukraine and the global rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic. Energy prices are a key driver of inflation that is rising worldwide and making the cost of living more expensive. A motorcycle taxi driver in Vietnam turns off his ride-hailing app rather than burn precious fuel during rush-hour backups. A French family scales back ambitions for an August vacation. A graphic designer in California factors the gas price into the bill for a night out. A mom in Rome, figuring the cost of driving her son to camp, mentally crosses off a pizza night. Decisions across the world’s economy are as varied as the consumers and countries themselves: Walk more. Dust off that bicycle. Take the subway, the train or the bus. Use a lighter touch on the gas pedal to save fuel. Review that road trip—is it worth it? Or perhaps even go carless.

Inflation taking bite out of new infrastructure projects (AP) The price of a foot of water pipe in Tucson, Arizona: up 19%. The cost of a ton of asphalt in a small Massachusetts town: up 37%. The estimate to build a new airport terminal in Des Moines, Iowa: 69% higher, with a several year delay. Inflation is taking a toll on infrastructure projects across the U.S., driving up costs so much that state and local officials are postponing projects, scaling back others and reprioritizing their needs. The price hikes already are diminishing the value of a $1 trillion infrastructure plan President Joe Biden signed into law just seven months ago. That law had included, among other things, a roughly 25% increase in regular highway program funding for states. “Those dollars are essentially evaporating,” said Jim Tymon, executive director of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. “The cost of those projects is going up by 20%, by 30%, and just wiping out that increase from the federal government that they were so excited about earlier in the year.”

Britain will electronically tag some asylum seekers with GPS devices (Washington Post) Britain will start placing electronic tagging devices on some asylum seekers after they arrive on small boats via the English Channel or through what the government calls “dangerous and unnecessary routes.” The plan launched this week, which the Home Office described as a one-year pilot, may involve adults who face deportation, impose a curfew on some or allow the detention and prosecution of those who do not comply with the new rules. The British Home Office said the plan will test whether monitoring migrants with GPS devices will help “maintain regular contact” and “more effectively progress their claims,” as well as collect information on how many escape custody. But refugee advocates denounced it as treating desperate people seeking shelter as criminals. The government indicated that among those who could be tagged would be people who challenged a decision to send them to Rwanda, after a legal showdown ended this week with the British government canceling the inaugural flight proposed under the heavily criticized policy.

Macron Loses Majority (1440) French President Emmanuel Macron lost control of the country's parliament yesterday, after his centrist coalition failed to win a majority of the 577-seat body in national elections. The outcome means Macron, elected to a second term in April, will likely face significant challenges in achieving legislative priorities. Macron and his political allies in the National Assembly faced stiff opposition from both the left and the right. A progressive coalition led by veteran left-wing politician Jean-Luc Mélenchon appears on track to win around 140 seats, while Marine Le Pen's conservative populist bloc is projected to take 90 seats—a significant jump from the eight seats won in 2017. As of this writing, Macron's bloc is projected to take around 230 to 240 seats. Analysts say frustration with major parties has led to a drop in voter enthusiasm, with less than half of eligible voters casting ballots.

Germany Turns to Coal (1440) German officials announced yesterday the country would restart a number of coal-fired power plants over the coming months as part of an effort to conserve natural gas supplies amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. The move comes in response to Russia's recent throttling of gas exports to Europe. Natural gas accounts for about 25% of Germany's energy consumption, the majority of which is used for heating and industrial purposes. Roughly one-third—down from more than half—of Germany's gas supplies come from Russia.

Russian Forces Tighten Noose Around Important Cities in Ukraine’s East (NYT) Russian forces appeared poised to tighten the noose around thousands of Ukrainian troops near two strategically important cities in the fiercely contested Donbas region of eastern Ukraine on Sunday, mounting an assault on Ukrainian front lines that forced Ukraine to rush reinforcements to the area. The Russians made an initial breakthrough Sunday in Toshkivka, a small town southeast of the metropolitan area of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk, where vicious street-by-street fighting and artillery duels have raged for weeks. Sergei Haidai, the regional military governor, acknowledged that the Russians had “had success” in the Toshkivka area but said the occupiers “suffered defeat” after Ukrainian artillery went to Toshkivka’s defense. It was not clear who controlled Toshkivka by nightfall Sunday. If Moscow’s forces succeed in eventually surrounding Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk, however, thousands of Ukrainian fighters defending the two cities could be stranded. That would deliver a hard-won military victory to the Kremlin and bring Russian forces a step closer to fulfilling President Vladimir V. Putin’s objective of seizing all of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region.

Death in Ukraine (NYT) A war can be measured by many metrics. Territory won or lost. Geopolitical influence increased or diminished. Treasure acquired or resources depleted. But for the people suffering under the shelling, who hear the whistling of incoming missiles, the crack of gunfire on the streets and the wails of loss out of shattered windows, the death toll is the most telling account of a war. In Ukraine, no one is quite sure exactly what that toll is, except that many many people have been killed. An “endless caravan of death,” said Petro Andryushchenko, an official for the devastated city of Mariupol. In its latest updates, the Office of United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights said 4,509 civilians had been killed in the conflict. But it is clear that many thousands more have been killed. Ukraine’s chief of police, Ihor Klymenko, said this past week that prosecutors had opened criminal proceedings “for the deaths of more than 12,000 people who were found, in particular, in mass graves.” And in Mariupol, the Black Sea city flattened by Russian bombardment, Ukrainian officials in exile have said that examinations of mass graves using satellite imagery, witness testimony and other evidence have led them to believe that at least 22,000 were killed—and possibly thousands more. The casualty figures exclude the thousands believed killed in territories held by Russian forces. And even where Ukraine has regained control, Mr. Klymenko said, it was premature to calculate the dead in mass graves, as more are found every week.

South Asia floods hampering access to food, clean water (AP) Floods in South Asia wreaking havoc Monday hindered authorities’ efforts to deliver food and drinking water to shelters across Assam in northeastern India and north and northeastern regions of Bangladesh. More than a dozen people died across Bangladesh since the monsoon began last week, authorities said. The government called in soldiers Friday to help evacuate people, and Ekattor TV station said millions remained without electricity. Assam has been reeling from massive floods after heavy torrential rains over the past few weeks made the Brahmaputra River break its banks, leaving millions of homes underwater and severing transport links. The Brahmaputra flows from China’s Tibet through India and into Bangladesh on a nearly 800-kilometer (500-mile) journey through Assam.

New park in central Bangkok gives Thais needed green space (AP) Bursting with trees, ponds, plants and birdlife, a new inner-city park is delighting residents of Thailand’s bustling, congested capital. Every day, crowds visit Benjakitti Forest Park to savor a taste of nature in the heart of Bangkok. It’s part of a drive to create a greener, more livable Bangkok by 2030, by bringing shade, peace and quiet to the hot, cacophonous city. Another park adjacent to the site was built in the 1990s, with a vast, man-made lake. But the new, semi-wild, 41-hectare (101-acre) extension has captured the capital’s imagination. On weekends up to 12,000 people a day use its nature trail, walkways and cycling paths, snapping photos from its viewing platforms to fill their social media feeds. Surrounded by concrete and steel, city residents currently enjoy just 7 square meters (75 square feet) of urban green space per head, according to the Bangkok Metropolitan Authority. The aim is to increase that to 10 square meters (108 square feet) by 2030 through a much-touted park-building program, and by planting more trees.

Israel to dissolve parliament, call 5th election in 3 years (AP) Israel’s weakened coalition government announced Monday that it would dissolve parliament and call new elections, setting the stage for the possible return to power of former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or another period of prolonged political gridlock. The election will be Israel’s fifth in three years, and it will put the polarizing Netanyahu, who has been the opposition leader for the past year, back at the center of the political universe. “I think the winds have changed. I feel it,” Netanyahu declared. The previous four elections, focused on Netanyahu’s fitness to rule while facing a corruption investigation, ended in deadlock. While opinion polls project Netanyahu, who is now on trial, as the front-runner, it is far from certain that his Likud party can secure the required parliamentary majority to form a new government.

Over 200 Feared Dead in Ethiopia Massacre (NYT) An Ethiopian rebel group massacred more than 200 members of the Amhara ethnic group on Sunday, according to officials and news reports, the latest atrocity amid a civil war that threatens to tear apart Africa’s second-most-populous nation. Witnesses and officials told The Associated Press that at least 230 people were killed when members of the Oromo Liberation Army attacked Tole, a village in Oromia, Ethiopia’s largest region. The Oromo Liberation Army, a rebel group known as the O.L.A. that is designated as a terror organization by the Ethiopian government, denied carrying out the killings and said they were committed by a militia aligned with the regional government supporting Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The attack was among the worst ethnic violence to roil the country since November 2020 when the government and its allies began trying to suppress a rebellion that began in the northern region of Tigray. The Tigrayans, an ethnic minority that long held outsized political power in the country, revolted against efforts by Mr. Abiy to do away with the country’s system of ethnic federalism. The conflict soon exploded into a civil war, cleaving the country along ethnic lines and leaving thousands dead and injured and millions hungry and displaced. Fighters on both sides of the conflict have committed war crimes, including ethnic cleansing, mass killings and sexual violence.

‘Day Zero’ water crisis looms on South Africa’s eastern cape (Washington Post) Activists in Gqeberha have long warned of “day zero”—the moment when the taps in this South African coastal city will run dry. Years of severe drought and municipal mismanagement have edged Gqeberha closer and closer to that reality. Now, day zero is nearly here. On Monday, city officials announced that one of its four major dams had reached a level so low that barges trying to extract water sucked in mud instead. Another dam is expected to fail in the next two weeks, a third in about a month. Large parts of the city could be completely without running water by the end of the month, according to local officials. For many in South Africa, water shortages have long been a way of life. Recurring droughts in the region—which experts say are almost certainly exacerbated by climate change—combined with decaying infrastructure and poor maintenance, have led to repeated water outages in Nelson Mandela Bay, where Gqeberha is located, as well as in other cities.

[angel0news]

"If Electoral Bonds Not Allowed, Then…": Nitin Gadkari Cites Drawback

Russian President Vladimir Putin warned the West on Monday that a direct conflict between Russia and the U.S.-led NATO military alliance would mean the planet was one step away from World War Three but said hardly anyone wanted such a scenario.

The Ukraine war has triggered the deepest crisis in Moscow's relations with the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. Putin has often warned of the risks of nuclear war but says he has never felt the need to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

French President Emmanuel Macron last month said he could not rule out the deployment of ground troops in Ukraine in the future, with many Western countries distancing themselves from that while others, especially in Eastern Europe, expressed support.

Asked by Reuters about Macron's remarks and the risks and possibility of a conflict between Russia and NATO, Putin quipped: "Everything is possible in the modern world."

"It is clear to everyone, that this will be one step away from a full-scale World War Three. I think hardly anyone is interested in this," Putin told reporters after winning the biggest ever landslide in post-Soviet Russian history.

Putin added, though, that NATO military personnel were present already in Ukraine, saying that Russia had picked up both English and French being spoken on the battlefield.

"There is nothing good in this, first of all for them, because they are dying there and in large numbers," he said.

Ahead of the March 15-17 Russian election, Ukraine stepped up attacks against Russia, shelling border regions and even used proxies to try to pierce Russia's borders.

Asked if he considered it necessary to take Ukraine's Kharkiv region, Putin said if the attacks continued, Russia would create a buffer zone out of more Ukrainian territory to defend Russian territory.

"I do not exclude that, bearing in mind the tragic events taking place today, we will be forced at some point, when we deem it appropriate, to create a certain 'sanitary zone' in the territories today under the Kyiv regime," Putin said.

He declined to give any further details but said such a zone might have to be big enough to preclude foreign made armaments from reaching Russian territory.

Putin ordered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, triggering major European war after eight years of conflict in eastern Ukraine between Ukrainian forces on one side and pro-Russian Ukrainians and Russian proxies on the other.

Putin said he wished Macron would stop seeking to aggravate the war in Ukraine but to play a role in finding peace: "It seems that France could play a role. All is not lost yet."

"I've been saying it over and over again and I'll say it again. We are for peace talks, but not just because the enemy is running out of bullets," Putin said.

"If they really, seriously, want to build peaceful, good-neighbourly relations between the two states in the long term, and not simply take a break for rearmament for 1.5-2 years."

Putin dismissed U.S. and Western criticism of the election, which the White House said was not free and fair, saying U.S. elections were not democratic and criticising the use of state power against Donald Trump.

"The whole world is laughing at what is happening there," Putin said of the United States. "It is just a catastrophe - it is not democracy - what on earth is it?"

When asked about the fate of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who died in unexplained circumstances at a Russian prison in the Arctic on Feb. 16, Putin said he had simply "passed away" using Navalny's name for one of the first times in public.

Putin said he had agreed several days before Navalny's death to swap him. Reuters reported in February that a prisoner exchange deal had been agreed for Navalny shortly before his death.

"I said: 'I am agreed'," Putin said about his approval for the prisoner swap. "I had one condition - we exchange him but he never returns."

[inkie80]

French girl here. When she was his student there was not a sexual relationship. They met again after a few years when he was at university and only then really got together.

Her daughter wrote a book about how it ruined their family tho and if there wasn’t a relationship before had how come his parents sent him away so they would stop seeing each other but he said they couldn’t stop him from seeing her and asked her not to see him again until he was an adult. His own parents are even quoted here https://www.independent.co.uk/news/emmanuel-macron-parents-how-discovered-affair-drama-teacher-brigitte-trogneux-dating-french-president-election-win-a7724201.html

I had an ask about it earlier and this was added too.

Thanks for the link. For who wants to read it

[mariacallous]

Europe is being reoriented from the Atlantic to the Vistula, with Russia no longer part of the plan, French daily Le Figaro wrote on Tuesday.

Le Figaro referred to the recent revival of the Weimar Triangle, a trilateral format of cooperation between France, Germany, and Poland. Launched in 1991, the format went into hibernation in recent years, partly due to Poland’s then government of the Law and Justice (PiS), which displayed open animosity toward Germany and had lukewarm relations with France. But with the new Polish government, much more pro-EU in its orientation than their predecessors, taking office last December, the Triangle seems to have come back to life. The newspaper referenced the words of General Charles de Gaulle in 1959 when he was president of France and sought an agreement with the Soviet Union. The French daily wrote that De Gaulle’s vision of a “Europe from the Atlantic to the Urals will not be created; instead, Europe is being created from the Atlantic to the Vistula, organized around the Paris-Berlin-Warsaw axis.” Russia has changed from being a “strategic partner” of France and Germany into a “direct and lasting threat to European security,” said the French daily. For two decades, “the French and Germans invested massively in Russia, which became their main energy supplier.”

According to Le Figaro, “European diplomacy undoubtedly made mistakes in relations with Putin,” although it is difficult to blame French President Emmanuel Macron, who attempted everything to “return Russia to the European family.” Le Figaro wrote that if Donald Trump were to win the November U.S. presidential elections and America loses interest in European affairs, the role of the Paris-Berlin-Warsaw axis would become even more important, and added that last Friday’s meeting of the Weimar Triangle leaders in Berlin had “brought a strategic breakthrough.”

[head-post]

French Jordan Bardella: “Vonderleyenism” is leading Europe to “suicide”

The head of the French National Rally party’s list for the European elections, Jordan Bardella, wants to rewrite the EU treaties and fight “Vonderleyenism”, he said in a statement to reporters in Paris on Thursday.

The party leader set a target of “100 days to mobilise” and “100 days to win” the European elections scheduled for June, which “will be unlike any other”.

Bardella criticised EU Commission chief von der Leyen and French President Emmanuel Macron, saying his main goal was to fight “Vonderleyenism” and supporters of a liberal Europe who are leading Europe to “suicide”.

He said Europe is built on four pillars: the migration and asylum pact, the Green Deal and the deepening and enlargement of the EU.

On the issue of migration, Bardella accused von der Leyen of wanting to turn the EU into a “railway station” and retaliated by suggesting that elections should be seen as a “referendum” on migration.

Read more HERE

[beardedmrbean]

The duel between Emmanuel Macron's incumbent majority and Jean-Luc Mélenchon's pan-leftist NUPES coalition duly dominated the spotlight on Sunday after the first round of France's legislative elections. But far-right National Rally flagbearer Marine Le Pen had a red-letter night at the ballot box. Even at the low end of seat projections for next Sunday's run-off, Le Pen will have shored up party finances, seen off a pesky political foe and guaranteed herself a gilded soapbox for five more years.

The far right is rarely a focal point in French parliamentary polls. It has long been a political truism in France that the legislative elections – 577 individual seat races in two rounds, majority wins, for the lower-house National Assembly – favour parties that can cast a wide net and cultivate parliamentary alliances, leaving the country's predominant go-it-alone far-right party, founded by Marine Le Pen's rabble-rousing father Jean-Marie half a century ago, out in the cold.

But on Sunday night Le Pen's National Rally (RN) dented that conventional wisdom with a historic showing, pending next week's run-off. Standing for re-election in northern France, Le Pen herself fell just short of winning outright in the election's opening round with 53.96 percent of the vote. She'll wage a comfortable run-off next Sunday while her party vies for dozens of new parliamentary seats. And she has managed it all despite running a conspicuously casual campaign – once she'd returned from a long holiday after April's presidential election, that is.

"The second round offers us the opportunity to send a very large group of patriotic deputies to the new National Assembly," Le Pen declared Sunday, smiling in the wind on an outdoor stage in Hénin-Beaumont, northern France, pledging to represent "honest folks" in the chamber with a far-right group vast "as never before in the political history of our country".

After all votes were counted on Sunday night, Le Pen's RN scored 18.68 percent of the vote, up from the 13.2 percent the party managed in the first round in 2017. RN candidates advanced to the run-off in more than 200 races across the country, up from 120 five years ago. Pollsters project the National Rally is likely to win enough seats to form an official group in parliament – Ipsos-Sopra Steria projects 20 to 45 RN seats, well above the minimum 15 for a group – unlocking funding and powers at the pulpit that the party hasn't enjoyed in decades.

Stacked odds

All of which counts as a triumph for a far-right party in French legislative elections. Indeed, the National Rally and its predecessor, the National Front, have only won 10 legislative races this century, despite strong showings in presidential elections scheduled only weeks before. Despite her appearance in the May 2017 presidential run-off against Emmanuel Macron, Le Pen's RN only won eight National Assembly seats that June. Apart from a political exception in 1986 – when an experiment with proportional voting saw 35 far-right National Front candidates win seats – the far-right faction had never had the numbers to form a group in parliament. Indeed, the far-right threat has long been a key argument in France against any permanent shift to a proportional voting system.

[toscanoirriverente]

LONDON, Sept 14 (Reuters) - British opposition leader Keir Starmer said on Thursday a Labour government would set up a new police unit to tackle illegal migration and suggested he was open to a returns agreement for asylum seekers with the European Union to solve the crisis.

After talks in The Hague with officials from the EU police force Europol, Starmer said the Conservative government had "lost control of our borders", as seen in the large numbers of migrants crossing the Channel to Britain.

"What I am discussing today is a security agreement, sharing of information, operationalising the way we can smash these (trafficking) gangs," he told reporters, describing as "embarrassing" a charge from the Conservatives that his plan could open the way for 100,000 asylum seekers to enter Britain.

How to tackle illegal migration is set to be a major battleground for both Labour and the Conservatives in a national election expected next year, with many voters angry over the housing of immigrants in costly hotels.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has made "stopping the boats" - the arrival of migrants across the Channel - a priority but as yet his government's policies, such as sending asylum seekers to Rwanda, have failed to get off the ground.

Starmer, whose party looks set to win the next election according to opinion polls, suggested in the Times newspaper that a Labour government could seek an EU-wide returns agreement for asylum seekers, possibly accepting quotas of migrants in return for sending back people who arrive illegally.

Sunak accused Starmer of opening the door to 100,000 EU migrants every year. "That doesn't seem like a credible plan to me to stop the boats," he told reporters.

Before Brexit, the government could ask members to take back people it could prove passed through safe European countries.

In 2019, Britain was able to transfer 263 asylum seekers back to EU countries, according to government data. That is equivalent to fewer than 1% of the just over 45,000 asylum seekers who arrived in Britain on small boats last year.

In a flurry of overseas diplomacy, Starmer will also meet French President Emmanuel Macron next week, when he might also pitch his proposals.

[xtruss]

Thug, War Criminal, Terrorist & West’s Puppet Zelensky’s Ukraine Faces a Long War.

A Change of Course is Needed! Its ‘War Criminal & War Monger’ Backers Should Pray For a Speedy Victory 😂😂😂—But Plan For a Long Struggle. (To achieve this goal, Respect Russia 🇷🇺 — French President Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron)

— September 21st, 2023 | Leaders | Ukraine | Russia

Image: The Economist

The war in Ukraine has repeatedly confounded expectations. It is now doing so again. The counter-offensive that began in June was based on the hope that Ukrainian soldiers, equipped with modern Western weapons and after training in Germany, would recapture enough territory to put their leaders in a strong position at any subsequent negotiations.

This plan is not working. Despite heroic (West a Bullshit Propaganda) efforts and breaches of Russian defences near Robotyne, Ukraine has liberated less than 0.25% of the territory that Russia occupied in June. The 1,000km front line has barely shifted. Ukraine’s army could still make a breakthrough in the coming weeks, triggering the collapse of brittle (😂😂😂) Russian forces. But on the evidence of the past three months, it would be a mistake to bank on that.

Asking for a ceasefire or peace talks is pointless. Vladimir Putin shows no sign of wanting to negotiate and, even if he did, could not be trusted to stick to a deal. He is waiting for the West to tire and hoping that Donald Trump is re-elected. Mr Putin needs war to underpin his domestic dictatorship (What about the West’ leaders who don’t listen to their people. It’s a form of dictatorship as well, Dimwit); any ceasefire would simply be a pause to re-arm and get ready to attack again. If Ukrainians stop fighting, they could lose their country (Sure they will lose. Poland and other two countries are ready to take back their territories.)

Both Ukraine and its Western supporters are coming to realise that this will be a grinding war of attrition. Thug, War Criminal, West’s Puppet and Terrorist President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Washington this week for talks. “I have to be ready for the long war 😂😂😂,” he told The Economist. But unfortunately, Ukraine is not yet ready; nor are its Western partners. Both are still fixated on the counter-offensive. They need to rethink Ukraine’s military strategy and how its economy is run. Instead of aiming to “win” and then rebuild, the goal should be to ensure that Ukraine has the staying power to wage a long war—and can thrive despite it.

The first recalibration is military. Ukraine’s soldiers are exhausted; many of its finest have been killed. Despite conscription, it lacks the manpower to sustain a permanent large-scale counter-offensive. It needs to husband resources, and to change the game. New tactics and technologies can take the fight to Russia. Ukraine’s tech-savvy entrepreneurs are ramping up drone production: Ukrainian drones recently destroyed Russian warships; its missiles seem to have damaged a big air-defence system in Crimea. Many more strikes are likely, to degrade Russia’s military infrastructure and deny its navy sanctuary in the Black Sea. Don’t expect a knockout blow. Russia has also scaled up its drone production. Still, Ukraine can hit back when Russia bombs it, and perhaps even deter some attacks. (All West’s Propaganda. Russia single-handedly beating the shit out of US, UK, Germany, France, EU and their all Dimwit Puppet Allies altogether successfully.)

Alongside this offensive capability, Ukraine needs to boost its resilience. As well as heavy weaponry, it needs help with maintenance to sustain a multi-year fight: humdrum repairs, reliable supplies of artillery and training. More than anything, a long war requires better air defence. Ukraine cannot thrive if Russia blasts infrastructure and civilians with impunity, as it has for the past 18 months. Kyiv is a surprisingly vibrant city because it has effective defences against non-stop aerial attacks. The same set-up is needed for other cities, which is why squadrons of F-16s and more missile-defence systems are essential.

An economic recalibration is needed, too. That means fewer highfalutin plans for post-war reconstruction and more attention to boosting output and capital spending now. The economy has shrunk by a third and almost half of Ukraine’s budget is paid for with Western cash. In an odd kind of wartime Dutch disease the currency, the hryvnia, has strengthened even as private investment has plunged. With around 1m people bearing arms and millions having fled from the country, workers are scarce. (It means don’t f*** with Russia, oblige all treaties between you and Russia, stay home and ‘live & let live’. Don’t fight US and the West’s war. Problem solved.)

Ukraine’s economy needs to shift from relying on aid to attracting investment, even as the conflict keeps raging. From making more arms to processing more of what it grows on its farms, Ukraine has plenty of potential. The challenge is to get local and foreign firms to invest more, and to lure more Ukrainians back to the calmer parts of the country in the west.

Better security can help. The stronger Ukraine’s air defences, the lower the risk that a new factory will be blown up. The farther Russia’s navy is pushed back, the more safely exports can flow through Ukraine’s ports on the Black Sea. But economic reforms matter, too. More must be done to curb Ukraine’s long-standing corruption, with a priority on making the judiciary clean and impartial 😂😂😂 (Arrest War Criminal, Thug and Terrorist Zelensky who stacked millions of dollars in his and his family’s accounts). And more action is needed to make doing business easier, from recognising qualifications that refugees have earned abroad to offering firms war insurance.

All this requires political will from Ukraine, but also from its friends in the West. In the long term, the best guarantee of Ukraine’s security is North Atlantic Terrorist Organization (NATO) membership. Short of that, partners have promised a web of bilateral security guarantees. Equally important is what the European Union can offer: not just cash, but the prospect of membership. It is not easy to nurture a flourishing economy while being barraged with explosives—even Israel never had to face such a powerful aggressor. But Ukraine, unlike Israel, could one day be integrated into the world’s richest economic bloc. A roadmap for eu accession over, say, a decade, with clear milestones, would offer hope to Ukrainians and accelerate economic reforms, just as the same promise galvanised much of eastern Europe in the 1990s. (Folks! Nothing gonna happen. US, UK, Germany, France, EU and their Braindead Allies will disappear after total destruction of Ukraine.)

A New Member of the Club

For that to happen a shift in mindset is needed in Europe (By licking US Scrotums, Europe is already fucked up. What else you want from Europe?). It has committed as much weaponry as America and far more financial aid. Yet it needs to step up further. If Mr Trump wins in 2024, he may cut back American military assistance. Even if he loses, Europe will eventually need to carry more of the burden 😂😂😂. That means beefing up its defence industry and reforming the EU’s decision-making so it can handle more members.

The stakes could hardly be higher. Defeat (which is inevitable) would mean a failed state on the EU’s flank and Mr Putin’s killing machine closer to more of its borders. Success would mean a new EU member with 30m well-educated people (Braindead, Brainwashed, Dimwit, Twatwaffle and Boak Bollocks Educated), Europe’s biggest army and a large agricultural and industrial base. Too many conversations about Ukraine are predicated on an “end to the war”. That needs to change. Pray for a speedy victory 😂😂😂 (What You Sow, So Shall You Reap), but plan for a long struggle—and an Ukraine that can survive and thrive nonetheless (To achieve this goal, you need to respect other countries).■

— This Article Appeared in the Leaders section of the Print Edition Under the Headline "Time For A Rethink"

[blogynews]

"The Unseen Powerplay: Keir Starmer's Secret Meeting with Emmanuel Macron Unveils Groundbreaking European Connection"

President Emmanuel Macron of France held a meeting with Keir Starmer, the leader of Britain’s opposition Labour Party, on Tuesday. This meeting signifies the international recognition of Starmer, who aims to become the first center-left British politician to win a general election in nearly two decades. Just two days prior, Starmer attended a gathering of center-left leaders in Montreal and…