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theliberaltony · 5 years ago

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via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Joe Biden currently has a robust lead in polls. If the election were held today, he might even win in a landslide, carrying not only traditional swing states such as Florida and Pennsylvania but potentially adding new states such as Georgia and Texas to the Democratic coalition.

But the election is not being held today. While the polls have been stable so far this year, it’s still only August. The debates and the conventions have yet to occur. Biden only named his running mate yesterday. And the campaign is being conducted amidst a pandemic the likes of which the United States has not seen in more than 100 years, which is also causing an unprecedented and volatile economy.

Nor has it been that uncommon, historically, for polls to shift fairly radically from mid-August until Election Day. Furthermore, there are some reasons to think the election will tighten, and President Trump is likely to have an advantage in a close election because of the Electoral College.

That, in a nutshell, is why the FiveThirtyEight presidential election forecast, which we launched today, still has Trump with a 29 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, despite his current deficit in the polls. This is considerably higher than some other forecasts, which put Trump’s chances at around 10 percent. Biden’s chances are 71 percent in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, conversely.14

If these numbers give you a sense of deja vu, it may be because they’re very similar to our final forecast in 2016 … when Trump also had a 29 percent chance of winning! (And Hillary Clinton had a 71 percent chance.) So if you’re not taking a 29 percent chance as a serious possibility, I’m not sure there’s much we can say at this point, although there’s a Zoom poker game that I’d be happy to invite you to.

One last parallel to 2016 — when some models gave Clinton as high as a 99 percent chance of winning — is that FiveThirtyEight’s forecast tends to be more conservative than others. (For a more complete description of our model, including how it is handling some complications related to COVID-19, please see our methodology guide.)

With that said, one shouldn’t get too carried away with the comparisons to four years ago. In 2016, the reason Trump had a pretty decent chance in our final forecast was mostly just because the polls were fairly close (despite the media narrative to the contrary), close enough that even a modest-sized polling error in the right group of states could be enough to give Trump a victory in the Electoral College.

The uncertainty in our current 2020 forecast, conversely, stems mostly from the fact that there’s still a long way to go until the election. Take what happens if we lie to our model and tell it that the election is going to be held today. It spits out that Biden has a 93 percent chance of winning. In other words, a Trump victory would require a much bigger polling error than what we saw in 2016.

Let’s briefly expand on the points I made above.

Biden’s lead is pretty impressive

In this article — partly as a corrective against what I see as overconfident assessments elsewhere — I’m mostly focused on the reasons why Trump’s chances are higher than they might appear. But we should be clear: Trump’s current position in the polls is poor.

Biden is currently ahead in our polling averages in Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Ohio and in the second congressional district in Nebraska — all places that Clinton lost in 2016. If he won those states (and held the other states Clinton won), that would be enough to give him 352 electoral votes. He’s also within roughly 1 percentage point of Trump in Texas, Georgia, Iowa and Maine’s second congressional district. If he won those, too, he’d be up to a whopping 412 electoral votes.

It’s important to remember that the uncertainty in our forecast runs in both directions. There’s the chance that Trump could come back — but there’s also the chance that things could get really out of hand for him. Our model thinks there’s a 19 percent chance that Biden will win Alaska, for example, and a 13 percent chance that he will win South Carolina. The model also gives Biden a 30 percent chance of a double-digit win in the popular vote, which would be the first time that happened since 1984.

But there are downside scenarios for Biden.

Polls often change substantially between now and November

Every day, my colleague Nathaniel Rakich tweets out a list of what our national polling average would have looked like at this stage in past campaigns. And it can be a pretty wild ride. Here is Tuesday’s version, for instance.

The @FiveThirtyEight nat'l polling average with 84 days until E-Day:

2020: Biden+8.3 2016: Clinton+6.6 2012: Obama+0.5 2008: Obama+2.6 2004: Kerry+2.5 2000: Bush+10.0 1996: Clinton+11.3 1992: Clinton+20.1 1988: Dukakis+5.6 1984: Reagan+16.0 1980: Reagan+22.1 1976: Carter+26.6

— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) August 11, 2020

Three of the candidates leading in national polls at this point — Michael Dukakis in 1988, George W. Bush in 2000, and John Kerry in 2004 — did not actually win the popular vote. Bush blew a 10-point lead, in fact, which is larger than Biden’s current advantage. (Luckily for Bush, he won the Electoral College.) In other cases, the polls at this point “called” the winner correctly, but the margins were way off. Jimmy Carter eventually beat Gerald Ford by just 2.1 percentage points — not the 26.6-point lead he had at this point in the campaign. Bill Clinton won by 5.6 points — not 20.1 points. And Barack Obama won a considerably more commanding victory in 2008 than polls at this point projected.

Now, there are some mitigating factors here. Some of these polls were taken at the height of a candidate’s convention bounce, although there are ways to try to correct for those. And in general, polls have become less volatile over time, probably because increased polarization means there are fewer swing voters than there once were. The polls have been particularly stable so far this year, in fact.

But while there are some factors that reduce uncertainty, there are other factors that increase it.

COVID-19 is a big reason to avoid feeling overly confident about the outcome

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to more than 150,000 fatalities and has upended pretty much every American’s life, and Trump’s approval ratings for his handling of it have been awful.

But to the extent this is an election about COVID-19, there’s the possibility that the situation could improve between now and November. Cases have recently begun to come down after an early-summer spike, and recent economic data has shown improvement there, too. There’s also the possibility that a vaccine could be approved — or rushed out — by November, though it’s highly unlikely it could be widely distributed by then.

How to account for this? No, we aren’t building a COVID-19 projection model. (It’s really hard.) But we have built an “uncertainty index” that essentially governs the margin of error in our forecast. It contains eight components, two of which are very high because of COVID-19. Specifically, these are the high volatility in recent economic data, and the volume of major news events, as measured by the number of full-width New York Times headlines. There’s more news this year — not just about COVID-19, but the protests around police brutality, Trump’s impeachment earlier this year, etc. — than in any recent election campaign.

We also expect turnout to be harder to predict this year based on primary elections held during the pandemic that had highly variable turnout — which, in turn, could lead to more polling error. So even if the polls don’t change that much between now and November, that could create some additional uncertainty on Election Day. See the methodology guide for more on how we handle COVID-19.

But the other components of the uncertainty index are low, pointing toward a stable campaign. For instance, polarization is high, poll movement so far has been limited, and there aren’t that many undecided voters; the index accounts for all of those things.

In fact, the uncertainty index points toward the overall uncertainty going into November being about average relative to past presidential campaigns. So our model isn’t necessarily saying that things are going to get crazy, although they could. But it’s also saying you shouldn’t necessarily expect highly stable campaigns like 2012 to be the new normal in the time of COVID-19. (And keep in mind that 2016 was a pretty volatile campaign, too, even without COVID-19.) Empirically, the polls can move quite a bit from August to November, more than you might expect intuitively!

There are some sources of uncertainty that the model doesn’t account for, however. We assume that there are reasonable efforts to allow eligible citizens to vote and to count all legal ballots, and that electors are awarded to the popular-vote winner in each state. The model also does not account for the possibility of extraconstitutional shenanigans by Trump or by anyone else, such as trying to prevent mail ballots from being counted.

It’s hard to know what the “fundamentals” say

I’ve long been critical of models that use economic “fundamentals” to try to predict election results, mostly because — although they claim to be highly precise — they haven’t actually been very good at predicting the outcome of an election where they don’t already know the results.

And those models are especially likely to have problems this year because of highly variable economic data. One model based on second quarter GDP projects Trump to win -453 (negative 453!) electoral votes, for example. But if you built a model based on third-quarter GDP, which is expected to be highly positive, it might predict a Trump landslide.

This isn’t to say that we don’t employ a fundamentals forecast of our own. We do, but it’s much less confident than others, and it receives relatively little weight in the overall forecast. It also isn’t currently that bad for Trump. In fact, it essentially predicts the popular vote to be roughly tied. Why?

Although three of the economic factors we use in the model (jobs, spending, manufacturing) have been terrible, a fourth component (income) has been very strong because of government subsidies in the form of the CARES Act, though that could change if stimulus payments lapse. The fifth and sixth components, inflation and the stock market, have also been reasonably favorable.

Most of the variables that declined are now improving, and are expected to continue to improve. (Our model projects what the economy will look like by November rather than relying on current data.)

High polarization potentially blunts the impact of a poor economy.

Trump is an elected incumbent, and elected incumbents are usually favored for reelection.

We extended our analysis back to elections since 1880 (!) to expand the sample size, and found the relationship between the economy and the election likely isn’t as strong as other models claim, anyway.

In other words, our forecast thinks it’s far from obvious that the economy will doom Trump, especially if he can tell a story of recovery by November. Indeed, Trump’s approval ratings on the economy are still fairly good, so our model seems to be doing a reasonably good job of capturing how voters actually feel about the economy.

Another way to look at it is that our model is just saying that, in a highly polarized environment, the race is more likely than not to tighten in the stretch run. Empirically, large leads like the one Biden has now tend to dissipate to some degree by Election Day. And if the race does tighten…

Trump appears to have an Electoral College advantage again

Our model says there’s an 81 percent chance that Biden wins the popular vote — compared to his 71 percent chance in the Electoral College. That means there’s about a 10 percent chance that Trump again wins the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote. (Conversely, the model puts the chance that Biden wins the Electoral College but loses the popular vote at only around 1 in 750.)

That reflects the fact that the tipping-point state — the state that would provide the decisive 270th electoral vote — is somewhat to the right of the national popular vote. More specifically, our projection as of Tuesday had Biden winning the popular vote by 6.3 percentage points nationally, but winning the tipping-point state, Wisconsin, by a smaller margin, 4.5 percentage points:

The Electoral College could once again help Trump

Forecasted vote margin in battleground states and lean relative to the nation, from FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast as of Aug. 11

State forecasted vote margin Lean relative to nation New Mexico D+11.8 D+5.5 Virginia D+10.6 D+4.3 Colorado D+9.2 D+2.9 Maine statwide D+8.2 D+1.9 Michigan D+6.9 D+0.6 New Hampshire D+6.4 D+0.1 National D+6.3 EVEN Nevada D+6.2 R+0.1 Minnesota D+4.7 R+1.6 Pennsylvania D+4.7 R+1.6 Wisconsin* D+4.5 R+1.8 Florida D+3.2 R+3.1 Nebraska 2nd District D+0.9 R+5.4 Arizona D+0.8 R+5.5 North Carolina D+0.3 R+6.0 Ohio R+1.0 R+7.3 Georgia R+2.8 R+9.1 Maine 2nd District R+3.9 R+10.2 Iowa R+4.3 R+10.6 Texas R+4.4 R+10.7

* Wisconsin is the tipping-point state as of Aug. 11.

That 1.8-point gap is actually smaller than what Clinton experienced in 2016, when there was about a 3-point gap between her losing margin in Wisconsin (which was also the tipping-point state in 2016) and her winning margin in the national popular vote. This analysis is a simplification, too. There’s a lot of uncertainty in the outlook, so the tipping-point state could easily turn out to be Florida or Pennsylvania or something more unexpected like North Carolina.

Still, as a rough rule-of-thumb, perhaps you can subtract 2 points from Biden’s current lead in national polls to get a sense for what his standing in the tipping point states looks like. Add it all up, and you can start to see why the model is being fairly cautious. Biden’s current roughly 8-point lead in national polls is really more like a 6-point lead in the tipping point states. And 6-point leads in August are historically not very safe. That margin is perhaps more likely than not to tighten and at the very least, there’s a fair amount of uncertainty about what COVID-19 and the rest the world will look like by November.

Biden is in a reasonably strong position: Having a 70-ish percent chance of beating an incumbent in early August before any conventions or debates is far better than the position that most challengers find themselves in. And his chances will improve in our model if he maintains his current lead. But for the time being, the data does not justify substantially more confidence than that.

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beinglibertarian · 6 years ago

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Onward, Collectivist Soldiers

As I contemplate where I fit in my current relation to the State and its politically-correct and uptight sycophants, I realize not much has changed since Catholic school. If I benefited at all from the tutelage of nuns, it’s in being able to identify when I’m being indoctrinated or hoodwinked.

The first few years of my scholastic career were spent at a Catholic school in New Jersey. It was there that I, along with other kids with last names like O’Dowd, Vigliotti, Rispoli, and Gomez, were first introduced to the doctrine of original sin.

Sister Nazarene told us a sin was whenever a person did something wrong. God would not like it if we sinned, and if we sinned, he would damn well know all about it. You couldn’t hide from God. Apparently, a really long time ago this guy Adam and this broad Eve did something so bad that we, the first grade class of St. Francis Albert of Hoboken School, were guilty of it too.

As unreasonable as this seemed at the time, we were taught to understand that God was really pissed off. And touchy.

You see, before the beginning of time, God spent a whole summer making this place called the Garden of Eden for Adam and Eve. Eden was this groovy resort where people could just relax forever and ever, just as long as they behaved. By and by, good ol’ human imperfection had its way, and Adam and Eve goofed up. God was so hurt and insulted that he decided from that moment on that every Vigliotti, O’Dowd and Ferrara, as well as the Changs, Goldbergs and Patels, would be culpable for what those two Biblical miscreants did. Forever and fucking anon. He was God, after all.

Do you know what the transgression was? What Adam and Eve did that was so damned bad? They ate an apple. Not just any apple, but a super apple that had magic powers. Some wiseguy who looked like a snake called Satan told them to do it. He beguiled them. Sister Nazarene said that to beguile someone was like tricking them. As I recall, many us felt at that moment that we were being beguiled too. But God help ya if you asked any questions, or wanted clarification. You’d get a smack on the knuckles with a ruler faster than you can say Galileo Galilei.

Anyway, after they ate it — the apple, that is — Adam and Eve became smart. Turns out, God didn’t like smart people. Folks like that might want to find a meaning for things. They might find joy and fulfillment in intellectual pursuits, or in the labor of their discoveries. They might want to build stuff, make tools and what not, and shape the world according to their needs, according to their vision.

“Bullshit,” said God. “That’s my department. Who in the Hell do you bipedal monkeys think you are, muscling in on my action? From now on, your lives will be hard and mean and your kids will have it hard too. Now get out of here and don’t come back!”

This was called the expulsion from paradise. God did not like competition. When we would grow up, we would find out that most people don’t like competition either.

As we matriculated — that is to say once we got to the second, and then third grade — some of us Catholic kids started to think that all this original sin jazz was nothing but a bunch of malarkey. We looked for a Garden of Eden on the globe in our classroom and found none. We read up on snakes. They can’t talk, let alone beguile. Apples, while having some nutritional value, can’t make you any smarter than a rap on the head with a ball peen hammer.

Then, somewhere along the way, we were taught that this other guy, Jesus, died for all of our sins, lock, stock and fucking barrel.

“What gives?” we wondered. “How can there be original sin and Jesus too?”

We had a lot of trouble wrangling with this paradox. Mrs. Alverone, our third grade teacher, said a paradox was when something didn’t really make sense. And how!

Eventually, due to either boredom or mental exhaustion, all of us kids gave up our pursuit for the truth in favor of more lofty pastimes like dodge ball, smear the queer, and pouring salt on slugs. Halcyon days!

Still, it bothered me: being guilty of, and then having to atone for, things I didn’t do, couldn’t do, wouldn’t do, and had nothing to do with. A few months later I broached the subject again with my pals.

“Maybe original sin is just a way to remind us all that people are imperfect beings,” Crazy Dominick said while burning some ants with a magnifying glass.

“Well, shit,” I said. “You don’t need Biblical scripture to teach you that. Just look at how Fat Arnie swings a whiffle ball bat: just like a girl. And what about Jackie Smith dropping that pass in the end zone during the Super Bowl? And just look at how corny M*A*S*H has gotten since Alan Alda took over.”

Indeed it was a world fraught with imperfection. All we kids could do was observe, contemplate, and avoid the wrath of the nuns by never getting caught doing anything fun.

More and more it began to dawn on me that teaching us that we were all born guilty was just another way for the church to keep folks in line.

Think about it: if you’re constantly apologizing, you’ll never have time to do much of anything else, especially disobey, think critically, or pursue your life’s ambitions. I guess I was a late bloomer, but by the time I was ten years old I came to the grim realization that people like holding dominion over one another, especially with vague concepts, opaque language, and moral absurdities. And if those methods won’t work, brute force and violence will do the trick just fine. “Miracle, Mystery and Authority,” as Dostoyevsky once put it.

It goes without saying that aside from those obligatory funerals and weddings that pop up from time to time, I haven’t willingly stepped into a church since Jimmy Carter cured cancer. The way I saw it, you should stay away from people who want you to feel bad. Little did I know, assholes abound.

Now listen: if you think that living in a world that has begun to cast aside archaic concepts from the early Mesozoic era will free you and me from the efforts of dimwits to encroach on your sovereignty through didactic chicanery, think again, tough guy. Plunderers of the spirit will always seek new and improved ways to turn their contempt for joy into a moral crusade. Why? Because people like fucking with other people, and the best way to fuck with someone is to defame them from up on high in the lofty strata reserved for those with a knack for judgment and a lack of self-awareness.

Nowadays, when I observe the world and the myriad discussions, arguments, diatribes, and commentaries that our fancy-pants, interconnected culture is heir to, I see new versions of the old skullduggery popping up all the time. And so do you.

Aren’t terms like “privilege”, “cis-gendered”, “patriarchy”, “carbon footprint”, “intolerance”, “unfairly disadvantaged”, “triggering” and the like, bandied about by people claiming a moral authority steeped in victimhood, just as sanctimonious and illegitimate as that of the church and its so-called divine morality? I’m not saying that all of those terms are inherently bad in and of themselves; a just and fair world is a thing to aspire to, just like a world free of sin and talking snakes is. If annoying, PC bromides help the cause, so be it. They won’t, but hey, don’t progressives need something to do too?

Where the trouble starts is when an elite class of people, the heads of civic organizations, the clergy, media dolts, or politicians throw condemnatory terms about in an arbitrary and self-serving manner to stifle anyone who disagrees with or challenges them, all in the name of righteousness. They think that by forcing dissenters into a posture of constant apology and atonement for intangible transgressions they can either alienate or eliminate them without the trouble of firing squads, cattle cars, inquisitions and re-education camps. Meet the new douchebags, same as the old douchebags. They’re just less blood-thirsty and well, kinda, wimpy.

In the world of the collectivist headcase, the collective is the Garden of Eden, and being met with the collective’s disapproval for things he may or may not have done, or advantages that he may or may not have, is akin to the expulsion from Paradise. But who told them we wanted to be part of their world anyway?

It wasn’t okay when the church thrust upon us their ecclesiastic version of a full nelson and it’s equally offensive when modern-day demagogues do the same with their new-fangled concepts of original sin. But I don’t blame stupid people for using shortcuts to thinking; that’s what dummies do. And I don’t blame connivers for selling snake oil. What pisses me off is when people who know better allow themselves to be pushed around by these turds and their lexicon of defeatism.

The bottom line: don’t let anybody make you feel guilty for your own life. Especially if the shame being thrust upon you is the last ditch tactic of an inferior mind that wishes to hold sway over you because their own existence is so damn uncompelling to them. That there is some bullshit.

As writing this article has now become a tedious affair, and in order to avoid being redundant, I have provided below a post-modern to Biblical translator. Those of you with even a modicum of parochial education will find it helpful… but if your parents were jerk-offs and you went to a Montessori school, then not so much. As it is incomplete, feel free to add your own variables and expressions. I hope this helps out. Extrapolate and deduce as you will, big shots.

Privilege = Original Sin

Reduce your carbon footprint = The Ten Commandments

Cis-gendered = Lust

Patriarchy = Sloth

Intolerance = Pride

Non-Vegan = Gluttony

Trigger = Wrath

Global Warming = The Flood

Climate Change = The Rapture

Bruce Jenner = Jesus

Oprah = God

Michael Moore = John the Baptist

Jordon Peterson = Satan

Individualist/Libertarian = Heretic

Bill Maher = Doubting Thomas

Ron Paul = Nebuchadnezzar

California = The Promised Land

Corey Booker = Moses

Taxes = Acts of Contrition

This article represents the views of the author, and not those of Being Libertarian LLC.

The post Onward, Collectivist Soldiers appeared first on Being Libertarian.

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junker-town · 4 years ago

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How soon can we expect the NFL rookie QBs to start?

Photo by Logan Bowles/NFL via Getty Images

We know Trevor Lawrence will get the nod early, but what about the rest of the class?

With the 2021 NFL schedule now released and our games we’re looking forward to highlighted, we can now turn our attention to what might happen this season. There’s plenty of prognostication to be done on whether teams will be good or bad, and who might be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in February, but for some of the worst NFL teams from a year ago fans are now anxiously awaiting seeing their new QBs debut.

Five quarterbacks were taken in the first 15 picks of the 2021, second only to 1983 when six passers were taken in the first round. That ‘83 draft gave us legends like John Elways, Dan Marino, and Jim Kelly — but also Todd Blackledge, Tony Eason, and Ken O’Brien, massive disappointments when compared to the trio of Hall of Famers. Time will tell where the class of 2021 fits in NFL history, but we can shed some pretty reasonablt guesses on when these rookies will suit up and start.

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

This one is a very easy lock. Unless something dramatic happens in training camp, we’ll be seeing Lawrence from Week 1. It might be a little early to jettison Gardner Minshew this quickly, but ever since Jacksonville secured the No. 1 overall pick they’ve been looking to a future with Lawrence under center.

Prospects from this class largely fell into two camps: The NFL ready, and the risky upside projects. Lawrence split the middle perfectly, offering the capability of starting from day one, and plenty of room to grow in the league and become even better than he is now.

Projected start: Week 1

Zach Wilson, New York Jets

I’ll be the first to say I’m not the biggest Wilson fan as a prospect. In scouting him prior to the draft I saw the flashes of ability people are believing in, but also some worrying habits that need to be coached out. He loves to throw up 50/50 passes and put faith in his receivers, which is awesome if you’re playing for BYU against terrible opponents and know your receivers have the athletic edge, but it’s going to be almost impossible to do that reliabily in the NFL. Also I notice a tendency to take off and invent his own play a little too often, rather than go through his full progression.

That said, the Jets have faith in Wilson — and literally have no other quarterback on the roster. This will change before the start of the season, but unless Wilson severely struggles in training camp the team seem comfortable throwing him out there and seeing if he can sink or swim

Projected start: Week 1

Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers

After months of rumors about which way the 49ers would go in the draft, they ended up going with the upside potential of Trey Lance over the NFL-ready, low ceiling Mac Jones.

There’s a lot to link about Lance’s potential in the NFL, but he’s not quite ready to put a team on his shoulders yet. With the Niners having Jimmy Garopollo under contract there’s freedom to sit Lance for a year and let him learn the system, but something tells me they’ll grow impatient.

I don’t believe San Francisco has enough tools to win consistently with Jimmy G under center, and they don’t either — otherwise they wouldn’t have traded up for Lance. I think he rides the bench for a few weeks, then gets the nod.

Projected start: Week 7

I see a perfect place here to make the transition. The 49ers will be coming off a bye week, then have a long week of practice before facing the Colts on Sunday Night Football. The Colts are good, no doubt, but this is the kind of perfect mid-tier game to put a quarterback in. This gives Lance a couple of months to show what he can do, then be ready for 2022.

I asked Kyle Posey at Niners Nation for his thoughts on when Trey Lance will start.

“The big question among 49ers fans is when will Trey Lance take over for Jimmy Garoppolo? Everyone has Week 8 circled on the schedule, and for a good reason. On Halloween, there’s a potential matchup between the Chicago Bears first-round pick, Justin Fields and Lance.

It would be a surprise if Lance were to start Week 1. While he was the No. 3 overall selection and San Francisco traded multiple first-rounders for the former North Dakota State product, making the jump from the FCS to the NFL without having played a full season the year prior is a difficult adjustment for anybody.The 49ers’ bye week is during Week 6. That’s a natural landing spot for when most teams make the transition to a rookie signal-caller. There are several variables at play here, though. Many expect Lance to have a “package” where he plays anywhere between five and 15 plays a game. The more successful Lance is during his early playing time, the sooner we could see the future of the 49ers under center.

We’d be remiss if we didn’t factor in Jimmy Garoppolo’s injury history. If we do that, it’s unfair to ignore the scenario where Jimmy G plays well enough to where the Niners don’t consider messing up the chemistry they have on offense.When do we see Lance as the full-time starter? The best-case scenario would be around the bye week so that he’s able to get some playing time under his belt. While the Lions and Eagles aren’t scaring anybody, there will always be a concern when you start a rookie Week 1. Lance would have to be really, really good to unseat Jimmy G to start the season.”

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears

One of the best picks of the 2021 draft, the Bears made the bold decision to move up and find their quarterback of the future. A lot of people feel Fields needs to sit for a long time to adjust to the NFL after coming from a pass-happy Ohio State offense that made life easy for quarterbacks, but I think these hesitations are a little overblown.

While I do agree sitting Fields is the best move to start, I think the team, and fans will demand getting to see their hot new rookie — especially after enduring week after week of boring Andy Dalton football. The only potential stumbling block is if Chicago regains their 2020 form and looks like a playoff team during the first half of the season. I could see the potential there for the team to want to keep the status quo, rather than make a switch.

For now I’m going to operate under the assumption that Dalton, like he’s been his whole career, isn’t good enough to get the job done.

Projected start: Week 12

I am too in love with this scenario. Can you imagine Justin Fields getting his first start against the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving Day? The Bears front office might be afraid of throwing him into a national game with everyone watching, but if he’s been impressing in practice this could be the perfect time to cement his legacy. The Lions are also a soft spot in the back-end of Chicago’s schedule, so this makes a lot of sense.

I asked Lester Wiltfong of Windy City Gridiron to tell me when he thinks we’ll see Justin Fields.

“With an actual offseason of camps and preseason happening this year, we all should get a good glimpse of Justin Fields’ talent, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him win the QB1 job from Andy Dalton. That isn’t the Bears’ plan right now, but plans have a way of changing once the players get on the field. Head coach Matt Nagy says they’ll be smart with his development, that they’ll bring him along at a good pace for him and the team, but that the player that gives the Bears the best chance to win will be the starting quarterback. Fans are somewhat split on the sit or start debate right now, but in my opinion there is only one correct answer. Justin Fields should play when he shows he’s ready to play. Whether that’s week 1 or week 18, once he’s ready, he’s the man.”

Mac Jones, New England Patriots

Like peanut butter and jelly, spaghetti and meatballs, and the entire cast of The Golden Girls, the most pro-ready quarterback in the draft heading to a team that will know how to use him just fits together perfectly.

That said, I don’t think Bill Belichick will feel the pressure of committing to Jones as a starter from the jump. Yes, this is a different situation to 2001 when Tom Brady took over for Drew Bledsoe due to injury, because Jones was taken with a 1st round pick, I still think with Cam Newton on the roster they’ll have time to let Jones sit and learn. Heck, maybe even build up his frame a little.

Honestly, I think Newton might struggle again in 2021. He just doesn’t look like the same player he was in Carolina prior to injury. It’s crushing, but it is what it is.

Projected start: Week 15

It’s a long wait until the Patriots bye week, but it makes the most sense here. There’s no need to rush the process, especially if New England is out of the playoff picture, so give Jones a month to get used to the league.

Here’s what Bernd Buchmasser of Pats Pulpit said about Jones starting.

“You don’t draft a player 15th overall to have him sit on the bench — especially if that player is a quarterback. The expectation is that he will become the face of your franchise at one point. Mac Jones is obviously no exception, but while he will be the guy one day there is no guarantee he’ll take over as the Patriots’ QB1 as early as 2021. With Cam Newton returning to play in an offense with a significantly improved supporting cast (at least on paper), the team can afford to be patient with the less experienced Jones. Sure, he will get his chances to prove himself throughout the season, but as long as Bill Belichick thinks Newton gives his team the best chance to win he will be the starter.”

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ausinetaustralia · 5 years ago

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Beginning Electric Violin - A Review of Devices

Learning to play electric violin shares lots of resemblances with studying acoustic violin, with a few crucial distinctions. The very first is that nearly every acoustic violin is formed as well as tuned similarly. Electric violins, nonetheless, can be found in numerous forms and varieties, consisting of 4-string, 5-string, 7-string, fretted, and some with the top round eliminated totally to enable much easier playing in the greater settings. And also, actually, your acoustic violin can be "transformed" right into an electric by affixing either a microphone or a piezo pickup to the body. The majority of other electrical violins utilize a strong body, just like a lot of electrical guitars (such as the ubiquitous fender stratocaster). What adheres to is a testimonial of electric violins and a discussion of a few of the added devices you will likely need.

While there are lots of electric violins on the market by large quantity suppliers, most of these simply don't seem very good. A few of the far better (and mostly hand-made) electric violins are reviewed listed below. I made my choice from instruments that I have either played or possessed.

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In general, I am not a fan of standardized tools. Yet Yamaha makes several of the best. Component of the Yamaha quiet series, the design SV-200 includes a twin piezo pickup. This is expected to enhance the level of sensitivity of the tool to the nuances of your playing, particularly vibrant (quantity) range. Being available in at around $1000, this instrument is less costly than the others I will certainly examine below. On playing the instrument, I thought it was without a doubt responsive, absolutely more so than previous Yamaha tools. The on-board pre-amp enables some sound adjustment on the instrument itself instead of in a different, separated system. The down-side of this is that it enhances the weight of the violin.

An additional preferred design is made by NS Styles. This business utilizes an exclusive piezo pickup that is developed to be spick-and-span and seem more like an acoustic violin in its unprocessed state. I sampled a 5-string version, and I believed that the neck was overly thick as well as the instrument rather hefty. Still, if you are trying to find a tidy sound, this might be an excellent option.

Zeta has earned itself a great deal of buzz partially since Boyd Tinseley, of Dave Matthews Band, makes use of a Zeta tool called (what else) the "Boyd Tinsley." Zeta also makes use of an exclusive piezo pick-up that has a very characteristic audio. If you have actually ever listened to Santana play guitar, then you probably acknowledge his distinctive audio that originates from the combination of his Paul Reed Smith guitar combined with a Mesa Boogie amp. The majority of the sound appearing of that amp, no matter exactly how the noise is EQ 'd sounds "Boogified" to me. In a similar way, I felt using this instrument that my noise would get "Zeta 'd" by the pick-up. And you either like this sound or you don't. A big disadvantage to this zeta version is that it is quite heavy.

Mark Wood, One more "store" maker of electrical violins, recognized that attempting to hold a 7-string worried violin under the neck is rather tough, due to the weight. Thus, he created and patented a "flying v-shape" with a band that fits around your upper body and holds the violin up in a playing setting. Though it can take some time to obtain made use of to, this design actually does support the weight of the fiddle well. Make no mistake-- including frets to the violin is a large modification for the classic player. As a matter of fact, if you have ever before played a mandolin, you probably recognize just how much the stresses can alter things. Gliding as well as vibrato strategies are extremely hard on a stressed instrument. In my point of view, the worries are best for enabling guitar players as well as others knowledgeable about stressed tools to circumvent the common demand of determine precision with finger placement which is necessary for playing in tune on the an acoustic violin. The 7-string worried model, which is the flagship tool in his line of electric violins, is valued at $3500. Mark Timber does not utilize exclusive piezo pick-ups. Rather, he uses either Barbera or Schatten pick-ups, which are mass produced piezo pickeps that are made use of in various electrical violins.

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A previous Zeta worker, John Jordan makes personalized electrical violins in practically every mix of product, strings and stresses that you can imagine. Jordan started his very own layout studio when he became disillusioned by Zeta's increasingly commercial mindset. Jordan handcrafts each tool using his copyrighted shape, which eliminates the peg-box and also places machined receivers near the bridge. This is created to make the tool lighter. Jordan is significantly truth luthier of electrical instruments. Most of his versions, especially the ones constructed from wood, are very attractive. Jordan uses a range of pick-ups, including Zeta's exclusive model. On top of that, he likes the Barbera piezo pickup for a much more "Stradivarius-like" sound, and also suggests this pick-up for classical musicians. For rock, jazz and pop, he recommends utilizing the darker, a lot more "Guarneri-like" Ashworth piezo pick-up. Like many various other electrical violin makers, his 5-string unfretted is his most prominent design. It seems to have a thinner neck than various other electrics, which allows the classic 4-string acoustic gamer to make a simpler transition to electric.

Every one of the violins defined over are solid-body models. This implies that the instrument has no hollow, reverberating chamber as well as a result creates little to no audio unless it is "connected in." Nevertheless, an additional means to produce an "electrical violin" is to replace the bridge on an acoustic violin with a piezo pick-up bridge-mount that can be connected in similar to a solid body. The downside to this is that these pickups can generate responses. Nonetheless, this alternative can seem quite nice and also maintains the popular shape as well as lightweight of the acoustic violin. Common piezo models are the Fishman collection and also the L.R. Baggs. There are likewise a number of smaller sized "personalized" companies that make these pickups, as well as it can be helpful to attempt these if you do not like the audio of the Fishman/Baggs. This setup shares every one of the same negative aspects as any type of other violin fitted with a piezo pickup, as explained listed below.

What all electric violins share is the requirement for an electronic pick-up to transmit your playing to an unit with the ability of audio manipulation, such as a pre-amp or shelf system, and eventually to one more system with the ability of audio manufacturing. The two major sorts of pick-ups in use in today's plugged-in tools are piezo and also electromagnetic. Piezo pick-ups are utilized virtually specifically for electrical violins. They have certain features that some gamers locate less than suitable. While a bow modification on an acoustic violin can be totally silent to the listener, the piezo pickup will always transmit bow changes as well as bow sound. The factor for this is that they make use of level of sensitivity to stress as their key methods of replicating noise, and bow pressure is always variable. Likewise, piezo pick-ups tend to seem fuzzy. Various piezo pick-ups feed on the market, and some electric violin companies use their own proprietary versions. The various other kind of pickup in operation for electrical violins is the electro-magnetic pickup. This is the pick-up found in many guitars, and is taken into consideration the excellent kind of audio transmission. While it is possible to develop this type of pickup right into an electric violin, it calls for rather extensive modifications to the electric violin's inner layout as well as is rarely made use of. Perhaps in the future this sort of pick-up will come to be much more available.

En path to reaching our ears, the electrical violin's signal typically is travelled through an unit (or regularly numerous systems) with the ability of sound adjustment. Much of the very same devices made use of by electric guitar players may additionally be made use of for the violin. For example, reverb and hold-up devices by Vocabulary can give warmth as well as deepness of noise, while distortion boxes can permit the violin noise to approximate that of the guitar (a la Jimmy Hendrix playing America at Woodstock). There are essentially numerous various tools, including foot pedals, that can control the sound. Below is just one of Lexicon's top of the line reverb shelf systems. Computer systems are also increasingly utilized for sound control and may eventually change cumbersome sound manipulation boxes.

For electric violins employing a pickup, a pre-amp is essential to magnify the signal from your violin, as well as to allow you to EQ the noise. One popular instance of a pre-amp is the L.R. Baggs Para Acoustic DI. Some electrical violins likewise have on-board pre-amps.

Additional noise control and also signal aggravation occurs when the signal is gone through an amplifier. Due to the fact that many amps function best with mid and low frequency tones, it can be hard to find an excellent amp for the electrical violin, and even then it is generally needed to spend a great deal of time having fun with the EQ. A popular amplifier for electrical violin is the Fishman Loudbox 100. An essential consideration when selecting an amplifier is that each leaves its own imprint on your audio. Therefore, trying before buying is particularly vital with amps.

For an extra true recreation of your sound, a PA system with audio speakers can additionally be used. The audio can still be EQ would certainly with an individual PA system and it is possible to protect the acoustic sound.

Finally, the signal, after passing through the different sound control gadgets, is broadcast to our ears by audio speakers. Frequently, these are built right into the amp. You can also include added speakers to create a stereo impact.

If you are wanting to more or less duplicate your acoustic noise, playing electric violin might not be really pleasing to you. But also for joining a band, it allows the gamer to change their quantity to match the other instruments, as well as to alter the audio to fit in better with a rock or pop design of music.

That being claimed, electrical violin usually calls for a possibly instead pricey foray into electronic equipment, which can be a lot of fun but also challenging considering that the noise you are looking for might take a lot of time to find, as well as might require evaluating a lot of various equipment. Finding "your" audio can be a long trip. Some of the extra fascinating points you can do is to play on a 5-string, which adds a "c string," listed below your "g-string," or utilize an octave pedal, which can drop your pitch a whole octave. Or you can play with distortion or a wah-wah pedal. And also, while excellent method is vital for classical music, electric violin can be much more flexible.

In the long run, going electric can enable the violinist to join teams where common acoustic violin simply can not match the volume of the various other instruments. Furthermore, the nearly limitless ability to manipulate the sound enables the electric violinist to go where no acoustic player has actually preceded.

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sportsloungeblog · 6 years ago

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Grading The NBA Draft

The 2019 NBA Draft is this Thursday, June 20, from the Barclays Center. Later the next day or even later that night, I’m sure you’ll see “experts” give out their grades to each team and who they think WON and LOST the draft before anyone ever steps on the court. Of course, this is a ridiculous exercise to try and predict how the Class of 2019 will do before they play. Like most things in sports media today (TV, radio, podcast, websites, etc.) the idea of predicting how anyone is going to perform is a waste of time and energy. There are too many variables and the team’s themselves don’t have the slightest clue how anyone will turn out; All-Star or bust. It’s no fun to wait five years, at least, until we have some sort of idea how these guys developed. We need immediate reaction. A+ to this team and a D to this team for picking players that we don’t know how they will end up. We can though look back at past drafts and see which players were the best, who were busts and what late round gems ended up as Hall of Famers. It doesn’t take much explaining why Chris Paul was the best player taken in the 2005 draft, followed by Deron Williams, David Lee and Andrew Bogut. For this exercise, we’ll use Basketball-Reference Win Shares. Similar to WAR in baseball, Win Shares is an estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player. It attempts to divide up credit for team success to the individuals on the team. It gives you a pretty solid indication of who was a bust or who excelled among their draft class. For reference; Kareem is the all-time Win Shares leader at 273. LeBron is fourth at 226. Jordan is fifth at 214. Chris Paul is at 171, 19th all-time

2000 1. Hedo Turkoglu - 16th overall to Sacramento - 63 WS 2. Mike Miller - 5th overall to Orlando - 60 WS 3. Jamal Crawford - 8th overall to Cleveland - 60 WS 4. Michael Redd - 43rd overall to Milwaukee - 55 WS 5. Kenyon Martin - 1st overall to New Jersey - 48 WS Not a Hall of Famer here in the weak 2000 NBA Draft. Other notables are Morris Peterson and Quinten Richardson, who had some success. The top of this draft did not live up to expectations, even though two of the five best players in the draft were top five picks in Miller and Martin. Stromile Swift (#2 to the Grizzlies), Darius Miles (#3 to the Clippers), and Marcus Fizer (#4 to the Bulls) were all busts, averaging between 8-10 points per game and just under five rebounds. 2001 1. Pau Gasol - 3rd overall to Atlanta - 144 WS - 30th best ever 2. Tony Parker - 28th to San Antonio - 111 WS - 61st best ever 3. Tyson Chandler - 2nd overall to Chicago - 101 WS - 83rd best ever 4. Richard Jefferson - 13th overall to Houston - 83 WS 5. Joe Johnson - 10th overall to Boston - 82 WS Gasol and Parker are likely Hall of Famers that were important pieces to championship teams. Tyson Chandler was still active last season. Chandler turned his career around after a tough start for the Bulls coming straight out of high school. This past season was the first without Joe Johnson and Zach Randolph, multiple time All-Stars. Jason Richardson, Gilbert Arenas, Gerald Wallace and Shane Battier all had their moments too. A solid class with longevity as it had six players play 17+ seasons, Kwame Brown notwithstanding. 2002 1. Amar’e Stoudemire - 9th overall to Phoenix - 92 WS 2. Carlos Boozer - 35th overall to Cleveland - 80 WS 3. Nene Hilario - 7th overall to New York - 73 WS 4. Yao Ming - 1st overall to Houston - 65 WS 5. Tayshaun Prince - 23rd overall to Detroit - 63 WS Without injuries, Yao Ming is the best player in this class and the rare case of the first overall pick actually being the best player. Yao was induced into the Hall of Fame in 2016 and is likely the only HOF of the Class of 2002. Mike Dunleavy and Caron Butler were top 10 picks that finished with good careers.

2003 1. LeBron James - 1st overall to Cleveland - 226 WS - 4th best ever 2. Dwyane Wade - 5th overall to Miami - 120 WS - 49th all-time 3. Chris Bosh - 4th overall to Toronto - 106 WS - 74th all-time 4. Carmelo Anthony - 3rd overall to Denver- 101 WS 5. David West - 18th overall to New Orleans - 85 WS One of the best draft classes of all-time. The three best players made up the two title teams for Miami and Carmelo may get into the HOF. One of the great “What If’s” in NBA history is what Detroit could have done if they didn’t pick Darko Milicic with the second overall pick when the Pistons were already an NBA Finals caliber team. Kyle Korver, Mo Williams, Kirk Hinrich and Boris Diaw all had their moments.

2004 1. Dwight Howard - 1st overall to Orlando - 128 WS - 41st best ever 2. Andre Iguodala - 9th overall to Philadelphia - 96 WS 3. Luol Deng - 7th overall to Phoenix - 74 WS 4. Al Jefferson - 15th overall to Boston - 71 WS 5. Kevin Martin - 26th overall to Sacramento - 61 WS Back-to-back drafts where the best player was the #1 overall pick. Other than Dwight Howard, you have Iguodala and Deng, who combined for three All-Star games. Some may argue for Iguodala in the HOF with a Finals MVP for Golden State and his importance on the defensive end, but he has averaged under 7 ppg, 4 rpg and 3 apg in his five years over his early to mid 30′s with the Warriors. I think Howard should get in the HOF when the time comes. Other than him, there are not a ton of multi-time All-Stars coming from the ‘04 draft. Trevor Ariza, Devin Harris, Josh Smith, Jameer Nelson, J.R. Smith, Emeka Okafor and Ben Gordon were all starters that you’d be happy to have on your team.

2005 1. Chris Paul - 4th overall to New Orleans - 171 WS - 19th best ever 2. Deron Williams - 3rd overall to Utah - 77 WS 3. David Lee - 30th overall to New York - 76 WS 4. Marvin Williams - 2nd overall to Atlanta - 62 WS 5. Marcin Gortat - 57th overall to Phoenix - 61 WS One Hall of Fame point guard, an five time All-Star in Deron Williams, two- time All-Star in David Lee and that’s about it for difference makers in the 2005 Draft. The 1st overall pick was Andrew Bogut who had some good years with Milwaukee. I wouldn’t call him a bust, but he was a disappointment considering where he was selected. The ‘05 Draft does have a solid grouping of rotation guys including Lou Williams, Danny Granger, Monta Ellis, Raymond Felton, Channing Frye, Andrew Bynum, Jarrett Jack, Nate Robinson and Charlie Villanueva.

2006 1. LaMarcus Aldridge - 2nd overall to Chicago - 107 WS - 70th best ever 2. Paul Millsap - 47th overall to Utah - 88 WS 3.. Kyle Lowry - 24th overall to Memphis - 86 WS 4. J.J. Redick - 11th overall to Orlando - 58 WS 5. Rajon Rondo - 21st overall to Boston - 58 WS I don’t see any Hall of Fame players from the 2006 Draft. There really wasn’t much talent in ‘06 once you get outside of the 10 best players. The #1 overall pick, Andrea Bargnani of Toronto, was in the not bust, but disappointing category as a string of injuries prevented him from reaching his potential. The top 5-10 in this draft is littered with busts from Adam Morrison, Tyrus Thomas, Randy Foye, Sheldon Williams and the what could have been career of Brandon Roy if not for a bum knee.

2007 1. Kevin Durant - 2nd overall to Seattle - 141 WS - 32nd best ever 2. Al Horford - 3rd overall to Atlanta - 85 WS 3. Marc Gasol - 48th overall to the Lakers - 79 WS 4. Mike Conley - 4th overall to Memphis - 71 WS 5. Joakim Noah - 9th overall to Chicago - 61 WS A good draft where three of the four best players were all selected in the top four. Not much depth as it was a very top heavy draft. Greg Oden will join the long list of injury riddled top picks that will never know how good he could have been. Portland took a gamble on another big man and it didn’t pay off. 105 career games.

2008 1. Russell Westbrook - 4th overall to Oklahoma City - 96 WS 2. DeAndre Jordan - 35th overall to the Clippers - 83 WS 3. Kevin Love - 5th overall to Memphis - 78 WS 4. Serge Ibaka - 24th overall to Oklahoma City - 63 WS 5. Brook Lopez - 10th overall to New Jersey - 60 WS One Hall of Famer, a few All-Stars and a bunch of guys after that. It seems that there might be one HOF level player every year or so in the draft, followed by a couple of guys that will make a handful of All-Star teams, followed by about 5-10 guys that will be a starter. Derrick Rose would be in the top five if not for injuries. 2009 1. James Harden - 3rd overall to Oklahoma City - 121 WS - 46th best ever 2. Steph Curry - 7th overall to Golden State - 102 WS 3. Blake Griffin - 1st overall to the Clippers - 75 WS 4. DeMar DeRozan - 9th overall to Toronto - 60 WS 5. Darren Collison - 21st overall to New Orleans - 49 Now we enter the drafts from 10 years ago or less where guys are right in the prime of their careers. An exceptional top of this draft with two guaranteed Hall of Famers in Harden and Curry. Meanwhile, I would say Blake Griffin has lived up to the hype of a #1 overall pick. The #2 pick in this draft, Hasheem Thabeet, would not. 2010 1. Paul George - 10th overall to Indiana - 65 WS 2. Greg Monroe - 7th overall to Detroit - 49 WS 3. Derrick Favors - 3rd overall to New Jersey - 49 WS 4. Gordon Hayward - 9th overall to Utah - 47 WS 5. John Wall - 1st overall to Washington - 44 WS Rankings can still change here since most of these guys still have some prime years left and may play another 6-8 seasons, so the Win Shares will be fewer than previous drafts. You could also see someone like DeMarcus Cousins, who would rank sixth, end up in the top five at the end of his career. 2010 was a solid draft with most of the top tier talent coming from the top 10 picks, which you like to see. 2011 1. Jimmy Butler - 30th overall to Chicago - 66 WS 2. Kawhi Leonard - 15th overall to Indiana - 65 WS 3. Kyrie Irving - 1st overall to Cleveland - 58 WS 4. Kemba Walker - 9th overall to Charlotte - 48 WS 5. Klay Thompson - 11th overall to Golden State - 46 WS There’s really not any debate to the rankings when it comes to Win Shares until now. I think most would say Kawhi is the best player in this draft and that Klay is better than Kemba. There’s not a ton of stars after the top five, but this is as strong of a top five as any as we have seen. All are high level All-Stars and with a few HOF mixed in. Lots of misses in the top 10, including Derrick Williams, Jan Vesely, Bismack Biyombo and Jimmer Fredette. The final pick in this draft, Isaiah Thomas, has been better than most of the top 10. 2012 1. Anthony Davis - 1st overall to New Orleans - 72 WS 2. Damian Lillard - 6th overall to Portland - 70 WS 3. Andre Drummond - 9th overall to Detroit - 56 WS 4. Draymond Green - 35th overall to Golden State - 43 WS 5. Bradley Beal - 3rd overall to Washington - 36 WS Davis joins LeBron and Dwight Howard as the only #1 overall picks to be the best player in their respective drafts. Draymond Green also joins a short list of second round picks to be among the top five in their draft class. Looking back seven years ago now, this just wasn’t a very good draft. #2 overall Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is the ninth best players in this draft and he has not had a good career with Charlotte. Most drafts end up with at least 10-15 quality players, but not 2012. 2013 1. Giannis Antetokounmpo - 15th overall to Milwaukee - 53 WS 2. Rudy Gobert - 27th overall to Denver - 52 WS 3. Steven Adams - 12th overall to Oklahoma City - 38 WS 4. Mason Plumlee - 22nd overall to Brooklyn - 31 WS 5. Otto Porter - 3rd overall to Washington - 29 WS It says a lot that only one top 10 pick is among the five best players of the 2013 Draft class. 2006 is the only other year we have looked at where there were not at least two top 10 picks among the five best players. I think Victor Oladipo and C.J, McCollum will end up higher than Porter and Plumlee on this list. 2013 is a contender for having the worst top 10 in history. Oladipo has been very good at times and has shown improvement the last two years. Otto Porter has been ok and McCollum has been a good number two option in Portland. The rest of the top 10 has been terrible. Anthony Bennett, the worst #1 pick in history, followed by Cody Zeller, Alex Len, Nerlens Noel, Ben McLemore, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Trey Burke. None of those top 10 are starter level players. 2014 1. Nikola Jokic - 41st overall to Denver - 38 WS 2. Clint Capela - 25th overall to Houston - 31 WS 3. Dwight Powell - 45th overall to Charlotte - 22 WS 4. Jerami Grant - 39th overall to Philadelphia - 18 WS 5. Aaron Gordon - 4th overall to Orlando - 18 WS This should probably be the last draft class that we can look at because even thought it has been five years, a lot can and will change with this top five. Joel Embiid is ranked seventh due to injury, although he has been the best player from this draft. Zach Lavine has had a torn ACL and is much better than his 22nd Win Shares ranking among the Class of 2014. Andrew Wiggins has been a disappointment as the #1 overall pick, It might be surprising that you have to wait at least five years, if not six in my opinion, to have an accurate determination of who ended up as a draft bust or steal or who won the draft. Of the 15 years (2000-2014), 12 of those ended up with at least two of the top 10 players selected in the top five of best players in that draft. 2014, 2013, 2006 being the exceptions. 2013 is one of the worst top 10′s ever, while 2011 gives the 2003 Draft a good run for best of the past 20 years. Just know that as you watch the 2019 NBA Draft, the “experts” and GM’s don’t have any more clue than you watching at home who is actually going to make it and who isn’t. If they did, then Anthony Bennett wouldn’t have been a #1 pick and Giannis wouldn’t have lasted until the 15th pick in the same 2013 Draft..

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grimeuspyneus · 8 years ago

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NFL Mock Draft

Pick 1 - Cleveland Browns select

Myles Garrett - Defensive End - Texas A&M

Whilst there is a massive quarterback hole within the Browns roster, however they would be imbecilic not to take Garret number 1. Garrett is undoubtedly the top prospect in the draft being a certified freak whilst simultaneously showing Hall of Fame potential; there he has been securing multiple humbling comparisons from Julius Peppers to a collaboration of Von Miller and Jadeveon Clowney. Looking at Myles Garrett’s tape, although there may be signs of laziness at times, he looks as if he is the best player on the field and can change the game at any point with his combination of size, speed, power, and technique. The Browns can’t afford to mess this pick up so anyone else but Garrett here would be shock.

Other options - NO ONE

Pick 2 - San Francisco 49ers select

Jamal Adams - Safety - LSU

There are many different directions that the 49ers could go with this pick; they could try to go for the home run hit by taking the powerhouse that is Leonard Fournette; solidify that defensive front by taking the versatile Solomon Thomas; or they could trade out of the pick giving the new 49ers GM, John Lynch, multiple first round picks in the future. Although the latter may make the most sense from a directional standpoint, I decided to give the 49ers Jamal Adams from LSU. Adams is a clean non-stop workhorse on the defensive end who will add a leader to that 49ers D; looking at the tape you can see that Adams has a genuine passion for the game and will risk it all to win a game which is exactly the kind of player this organization needs on the field and the locker room. I believe that Jamal Adams can have the same kind of impact that Landon Collins had with the Giants last year - Adams has also drawn other comparisons from ‘The Honey Badger’ Tyrann Mathieu and the future Hall of Famer Darren Woodson.

Other options - Leonard Fournette, Solomon Thomas

Pick 3 - Chicago Bears select

Solomon Thomas - Defensive End - Stanford

The Bears as a team have a lot of holes to fill so at this spot they should just go with whomever is the highest on their draft board, for me the highest person still available is Solomon Thomas. Thomas is an extremely versatile defender who can play anywhere along the front line to a high standard and never takes a play off. Thomas will add energy to this defense and is a player the fans of Chicago can get behind; he has been drawing comparisons from J.J. Watt to Justin Smith.

Other options - Marshon Lattimore, Jonathon Allen

Pick 4 - Jacksonville Jaguars select

Leonard Fournette - Running Back - LSU

The jags filled most of their defensive needs in free agency picking up such big name players as Barry Church, AJ Bouye, and Calais Campbell; combine this with young talent like Dante Fowler Jr and Jalen Ramsay this defense can be in the upper echelon for the next few years. However, by spending so much money on defense the Jaguars lost some of their key offensive lineman so this next selection might not be wise but the draft is about improving your team and by drafting Leonard Fournette this team becomes immediately more explosive, dangerous, and physical. Leonard is a force to be reckoned with and will be one of the premier backs in the NFL from day one. By drafting Fournette the opposing defense will stack the box more leaving, the mediocre, Blake Bortles with more open targets which will ultimately lead to more yard equaling more points; pair that with a premier defense then this Jacksonville will be scary team over the next few years. Fournette has earned such high class comparisons as Adrian Peterson, Jamal Lewis, and Bo Jackson.

Other options - O.J. Howard, Garret Bolles

Pick 5 - Tennessee Titans select

Marshon Lattimore - Cornerback - The Ohio State

The Titans have a major hole at corner and Lattimore is the best corner in the draft; simple as that. In spite of this, if Lattimore is not here when it sthere turn to pick than i expect the Titans to aggressively shop this pick and if they can’t do that then they will either fill the whole at wide receiver or just take the best player available. Lattimore has been compared to the shut down corner Vontae Davis.

Other options - Mike Williams, Solomon Thomas

Pick 6 - New York Jets select

O.J. Howard - Tight End - Alabama

Some have suggested that the Jets may take their “quarterback of the future” with this pick and while that still may be true everything that I have heard from players and coaches in interviews is that they have full confidence in Christian Hackenberg - plus with the addition of Josh McCown it looks as if the Jets aren’t looking for a QB; at least not at this pick. If Hackenbeg is the Jets quarterback then they need to fill as many weapons around him and the loss of Brandon Marshall does not help this fact. O.J. Howard is great replacement and a potent weapon for this offense, Howard is a big tight with incredible hands, great speed, and a love for blocking you normally don’t see in pass catching tight ends. Howard is also special in the fact he has a high floor and a high ceiling meaning as he grows and matures the Jets will still get great production out of him. Howard has been drawing comparisons of Tony Gonzales and Julius Thomas.

Other options - Mitchell Trubisky, Reuben Foster

Pick 7 - Los Angeles Chargers select

Malik Hooker - Safety - The Ohio State

The Chargers have one of the best top 10 draft pick team you will see, one of the only problems they have is in their secondary; this problem can be immediately solved by one player - Malik Hooker. A true center-fielder, when talking about football, Hooker presents awesome anticipation, great ball skills and just an overall natural ability to make any quarterback pay for their mistakes. This pick seems almost too perfect but this could lead the re-birth of this chargers organization in a new city. I believe Hooker has the ability to be the best player out of this class when its all said and done, so do other as he ha been drawing strong comparisons to the legendary Ed Reed, Earl Thomas, and Charles Woodson.

Other options - Christian McCaffrey, Reuben Foster

Pick 8 - Carolina Panthers select

John Ross - Wide Receiver - Washington

The first, and maybe only, shocker in this draft; the Panthers select the dynamic John Ross in the top 10. When you break Chris Johnson's famous “He ran what?” 40 yard dash time you are certain to turn heads and when you compare that with what you can see on tape then you have, maybe, the most explosive player in the entire draft. If you combine that explosiveness with Kelvin Benjamin and the former MVP Cam Newton’s incredible arm talent then that spells disaster for opposing secondaries especially for the already frugal secondaries of the NFC South teams, whilst almost simultaneously showing flashes of improving on the 2011 ‘dream team’ eagles. Ross has been given a very strong comparison to his training partner and pivotal member of that 2011 eagles team Deshaun Jackson.

Other options - Christian McCaffrey, Jonathon Allen

Pick 9 - Cincinnati Bengals select

Jonathan Allen - Defensive End - Alabama

Medical issues may cause the top 5 prospect to slide down draft boards but may be too good of a prospect for the Bengals to pass up on; Allen was the cornerstone for last years incredible Alabama defense and may be the most pro-ready defensive player in the whole draft. Where Allen may not jump of the page from an athletic standpoint but his technique is sound showing superior hand-grappling talents, he will also be the perfect compliment to Cincinnati star player Geno Atkins. Allen has a very similar style to the ever destructive Fletcher Cox.

Other options - Reuben Foster, Haason Reddick

Pick 10 - Buffalo Bills select

Mike Williams - Wide Receiver - Clemson

This is a combination that I have loved since this draft process began, the idea of having Sammy Watkins and Mike Williams on the same team should make every Bills fan excited, especially if the organisation want to help out young talent Cardale Jones or just give the underrated Tyrod Taylor more weapons to throw to. Williams was a stud in college dominating every team they played against, even the unforgiving Alabama defense, and being 6′4 with a 32 inch vertical jump proves he will continue to dominate in the pros. Furthermore without Williams Clemson would never have won the National Championship proving that he does not shy away from the big moments; Williams compares to another player not afraid of the big moments Plaxico Burress.

Other options - Marlon Humphrey, Deshaun Watson

Pick 11 - New Orleans Saints select

Marlon Humphrey - Cornerback - Alabama

The saints had the worst ranked passing defense in the League last year and desperately need a corner to help them. Humphrey is a very physical corner with all the athletic traits needed to be a premier lock-down player in this league. While the numbers may not be mesmerizing and whilst there may be strong concerns about his coverage, his talent alone will most likely get him drafted in the top-15. Humphrey has been compared to Jimmy Smith.

Other options - Derek Barnett, Adoree Jackson

Pick 12 - Cleveland Browns select

Mitchell Trubisky - Quarterback - UNC

There has been so much talk about the Browns trading up into the top 10 to draft Trubisky and even that they might take Trubisky with the number 1 pick. Whilst I am not the biggest fan of Mitchell Trubisky I do see why teams, such as the Browns, are so intrigued by his talents and as of writing this the Browns do not have a player who could be a variable stating quarterback so I also see the desire in getting your guy, nonetheless I still do not believe they will have to trade up to land him. Trubisky has been compared anywhere from Aaron Rodgers to Matt Leinart.

Other options - Reuben Foster, Deshaun Watson

Pick 13 - Arizona Cardinals select

Tre’davious White - Cornerback - LSU

This pick to me is basically adding fuel to already hot fire that is the already hot fire of the Arizona Cardinals secondary. White is solid is in every aspect of the game and would be a perfect compliment to the two other former LSU Tigers Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu, but don’t be surprised to see the cards go after Carson Palmer's successor here. White has drawn comparisons to Tracy Porter.

Other options - Corey Davis, Pat Mahomes II

Pick 14 - Philadelphia Eagles select

Christian McCaffrey - Running Back - Stanford

The Eagles main focus of this draft should be trying to provide their franchise QB, Carson Wentz, with as many weapons as possible; and with this pick they get the ultimate offensive weapon. Christian McCaffrey may be the most naturally gifted player in the draft as well as being the perfect back for this Eagles offense; McCaffrey lead his team in both rushing yards and receiving yards making him an every down back who can either catch passes in the backfield or be sent out wide in the slot and run routes. This versatility will greatly help Wentz improve whilst have a true ball carrier to take the pressure off Wentz if it is needed. The perfect comparison for McCaffrey is former Eagles stud Brian Westbrook.

Other options - Derek Barnett, Corey Davis

Pick 15 - Indianapolis Colts select

Forrest Lamp - Offensive Guard - Western Kentucky

There have been a lot of mock drafts giving the Colts an edge rusher here which to me doesn’t make sense: 1) This draft is very deep when it comes to defensive players whereas there is a drop-off when taking about the guards. 2) Andrew Luck is one of the best quarterbacks in the league...when he’s healthy, and to say healthy the Colts need to protect Luck with a good O-line something they have not done up to date. Lamp and be a good building block to go along with Ryan Kelly. Lamp has been compared to Dallas Cowboy guard Zack Martin.

Other options - Derek Barnett, Takk McKinley

Pick 16 - Baltimore Ravens select

Derek Barnett - Defensive End - Tennessee

To be honest, I would be very surprised to see Barnett fall this low, especially for a player being compared to Greg Hardy (on the field) as well as being the Tennessee Longhorns all-time sack leader. Barnett is a perfect fit for the Ravens and will immediately help a team whom is both 24th in sacks and rushing yards allowed per game. Some people are saying that Barnett is a better all-around player than Myles Garret and from looking at his tape I might have to agree.

Other options - Corey Davis, Reuben Foster

Pick 17 - Washington Redskins select

Dalvin Cook - Running Back - Florida State

Last year the Redskins had to watch as the Cowboys won the NFC East behind there rookie running back, that should mean that when the Redskins see the back that perfectly fits their scheme sitting their at 17 they have to take him. The Redskins were 21st in the league last year on rushing yards per game and Cook being the explosive player he is that number could easily rise next year to the top 10 in the league thanks to the Redskins O-line; plus with above average hands for a running back Cook will be able to be an ever down back for this team. Hamstring problems may have affected him last year but the Redskins should look passed when they see the potential he has especially when being compared to backs like Edgerrin James and Clinton Portis.

Other options - Takk McKinley, Reuben Foster

Pick 18 - Tennessee Titans select

Corey Davis - Wide Receiver - Western Michigan

Although at times he looked like the best wide receiver in the nation due to his small school status he fall of some teams draft bored allowing the Titans their new Number 1 receiver and Macus Mariota’s new favourite target. Davis showed excellent production and competitiveness coming out of Western Michigan and although he may have played for a lower tier school some scouts described his dominance as “a man among boys” which should mean that teams won’t be too worried about. Davis showed hands and route-running that should correlate well going into the next stage of his career whilst being a high tier route-runner. Davis could be looked over due his school but shouldn’t especially when he is being talked about as the second coming of T.O.

Other options - Adoree’ Jackson, Takk McKinley

Pick 19 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers select

David Njoku - Tight End - Miami

Now that Jameis Winston has proven to be a star player in this league the Buccaneers may want to put all their eggs in one basket and get him some weapons to play with. David Njoku maybe has the highest potential out of anybody in the first round, being only 20 years old he has already displayed elite athleticism and great catching talent with the ability to make a defender miss in the open field. Njoku would work wonders with Winston who is known for his love for a big play and David Njoku can definitely supply that. Njoku has been compared to Jimmy Graham, Jordan Reed, and Greg Olsen.

Other options - Jabrill Peppers, Alvin Kamara

Pick 20 - Denver Broncos select

Garett Bolles - Offensive Tackle - Utah

The Broncos are in the bottom 10 in the league in Rushing yards, yards per carry, and sacks which all translates to - the Broncos O-Line is trash. Though I may like the acquisition on Ron Leary from the Cowboys number 1 ranked O-line, one player doesn’t fix everything and Denver needs to take a lineman with this pick. Garett Bolles has the best feet in the draft and his technique is sound from being a work-up blocker to being noticing stunts. Bolles will help solidify the Broncos front for years to come.

Other options - Ryan Ramczyk, Cam Robinson

Pick 21 - Detroit Lions select

Reuben Foster - Linebacker - Alabama

The Lions lack any real leader from the line backer position, Reuben Foster is the perfect man to fill that hole; he was at the forefront of this strong Alabama defense a programme known for producing great linebackers. Compares to the Seahawks Bobby Wagner.

Other options - Taco Charlton, Charles Harris

Pick 22 - Miami Dolphins select

Taco Charlton - Defensive End - Michigan

As Cameron Wake is nearing the end of his career the Dolphins need to begin to find his successor; that could be Taco Charlton. Charlton is a rare combination of size, length and athleticism, he is a twitchy player with enough power to push back a lineman. The Dolphins would just be hoping not to have another Dion Jordan incident with this pick. Charlton compares to Aldon Smith.

Other options - Jabrill Peppers, T.J. Watt

Pick 23 - New York Giants select

Ryan Ramczyk - Offensive Tackle - Wiscoinsin

The Giants were one of the worst teams in the league in rushing and sacks allowed last season and while Eli Manning has a variety of weapons at his disposal if there is a hand in his face he is going to be less accurate. Ramczyk is an athletic tackle with who comes from a Wisconsin system famous for producing great O-line talent. Ramczyk compares to Joe Staley.

Other options - Cam Robinson, Joe Mixon

Pick 24 - Oakland Raiders select

Haason Reddick - Linebacker - Temple

Reddick is a versatile player with an amazing motor and would be a great partner to Khalil Mack and Bruce Irvin to expand on what is an already exciting defense to watch. Haason Reddick reminds me a lot of Ryan Shazier.

Other options - Jarrad Davis, Kevin King

Pick 25 - Houston Texans select

Patrick Mahomes II - Quarterback - Texas Tech

The Texans need a quarterback badly and I’ve heard that they are quite fond of gunslinger from Texas Tech. The best way to put it is that Mahomes has a cannon for an arm and Will Fuller is a shot of of that cannon add that with the already gifted play maker Deandre Hopkins, you have one exciting offense now in Houston, Texas.

Other options - Cam Robinson, Deshaun Watson

Pick 26 - Seattle Seahawks select

Obi Melifonwu - Safety - Conneticut

With it looking like Richard Sherman’s time in Seattle is coming to an end Melifonwu is the athletic freak of nature that Pete Carroll could groom to replace him or replace the man people say he most plays like, Kam Chancellor.

Other options - Cam Robinson, Kevin King

Pick 27 - Kansas City Chiefs Select

Deshaun Watson - Quarterback - Clemson

The Chiefs get the quarterback of the future. Watson is a great fit in this system and under the guidance of Andy Reid I believe this could be a beautiful marriage; furthermore I see Watson as a better Alex Smith due to him being an equally good passer with more mobility and knack for having his best performances in big games.

Other options - Gareon Conley, Alvin Kamara

Pick 28 - Dallas Cowboys select

Takkarist McKinley - Defensive End - UCLA

Whilst the Cowboys desperately need some secondary talent McKinley is too good of a player for the Cowboys to pass up on especially as he fills a hole in that defensive front and is the kind of “war daddy” that Jerry Jones asked for. Comparison for McKinley is Tamba Hali or potentially DeMarcus Ware.

Other options - Adoree’ Jackson, Charles Harris

Pick 29 - Green Bay Packers select

T.J. Watt - Outside Linebacker - Wisconsin

The Packers pick up the second coming of Clay Matthews with T.J. Watt who will give everything he possesses when he is on the field. Oh and coaching from big brother J.J. won’t hurt his case.

Other options - Joe Mixon, Jabrill Peppers

Pick 30 - Pittsburgh Steelers select

DeShone Kizer - Quarterback - Notre Dame

With Roethlisberger considering retirement this year the Steelers put all their chips in the hand of the strong armed, raw talent of DeShoen Kizer who people say comapres most to current Steelers QB Big Ben.

Other options - Adoree’ Jackson, Evan Engram

Pick 31 - Atlanta Falcons select

Jabrill Peppers - Linebacker/Safety - Michigan

Perhaps the biggest wild card of the first round Peppers is the most versatile player in the draft with an innate reaction to try and create something no-matter where he is on the field or what side of the ball he is on. Peppers would be a great fit with this young Falcons defense and could end up becoming their captain.

Other options - Evan Engram, Charles Harris

Pick 32 - New Orleans Saints select

Charles Harris - Outside Linebacker - Missouri

This Saints defense lacks energy and desire but with this guy that will never be a problem again. Charles Harris, A.K.A. Black Ice, exudes energy and is maybe on of the most clean pass rushers in this draft. He has been compared to Shane Ray.

Other options - Adoree’ Jackson, Jarrad Davis

#nfl #nfluk #nfl draft #draft

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ausinetaus · 5 years ago

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Cert iv Instrumentation | Starting Electric Violin - A Testimonial of Devices

Discovering to play electric violin shares lots of similarities with examining acoustic violin, with a couple of essential differences. The initial is that practically every acoustic violin is formed and tuned similarly. Electric violins, however, can be found in many forms as well as selections, consisting of 4-string, 5-string, 7-string, stressed, and some with the top bout eliminated entirely to enable less complicated playing in the greater positions. And also, as a matter of fact, your acoustic violin can be "transformed" right into an electrical by connecting either a microphone or a piezo pick-up to the body. Many various other electrical violins utilize a solid body, similar to the majority of electric guitars (such as the ubiquitous fender stratocaster). What adheres to is a testimonial of electric violins as well as a discussion of some of the additional tools you will likely call for.

While there are lots of electric violins on the marketplace by huge volume manufacturers, a lot of these simply don't sound great. Some of the far better (as well as mainly handcrafted) electric violins are assessed below. I made my selection from tools that I have either played or owned.

cert iv instrumentation

As a whole, I am not a follower of standardized tools. But Yamaha makes some of the very best. Component of the Yamaha quiet series, the design SV-200 includes a double piezo pickup. This is expected to improve the level of sensitivity of the instrument to the subtleties of your having fun, specifically dynamic (quantity) range. Being available in at around $1000, this tool is less expensive than the others I will certainly review below. On playing the tool, I assumed it was certainly responsive, certainly much more so than previous Yamaha tools. The on-board pre-amp enables some audio manipulation on the tool itself as opposed to in a separate, detached device. The down-side of this is that it enhances the weight of the violin.

One more preferred design is made by NS Styles. This business uses an exclusive piezo pick-up that is developed to be spick-and-span as well as sound more like an acoustic violin in its unrefined state. I tasted a 5-string version, and also I believed that the neck was extremely thick and the tool instead heavy. Still, if you are looking for a tidy sound, this might be an excellent option.

Zeta has made itself a lot of hype partly due to the fact that Boyd Tinseley, of Dave Matthews Band, uses a Zeta instrument called (what else) the "Boyd Tinsley." Zeta also utilizes an exclusive piezo pick-up that has an extremely characteristic sound. If you have ever before listened to Santana play guitar, after that you probably acknowledge his unique noise that comes from the mix of his Paul Reed Smith guitar paired with a Mesa Boogie amp. The majority of the audio appearing of that amp, no matter exactly how the noise is EQ would certainly appears "Boogified" to me. In a similar way, I felt playing on this instrument that my sound would certainly get "Zeta 'd" by the pick-up. And also you either such as this audio or you do not. A large drawback to this zeta version is that it is quite hefty.

electrical instrumentation course

Mark Timber, One more "shop" manufacturer of electric violins, recognized that trying to hold a 7-string fretted violin under the neck is rather challenging, because of the weight. Hence, he made and also patented a "flying v-shape" with a strap that fits around your torso as well as holds the violin up in a having fun placement. Though it can take a while to get made use of to, this style actually does sustain the weight of the fiddle well. Make indisputable-- adding worries to the violin is a huge change for the timeless gamer. In fact, if you have actually ever before played a mandolin, you probably recognize how much the worries can alter things. Moving as well as vibrato methods are really difficult on a fretted tool. In my viewpoint, the worries are best for permitting guitarist as well as others acquainted with worried tools to prevent the normal demand of pinpoint precision with finger positioning which is needed for playing in tune on the an acoustic violin. The 7-string stressed version, which is the flagship tool in his line of electric violins, is priced at $3500. Mark Wood does not use exclusive piezo pickups. Rather, he utilizes either Barbera or Schatten pick-ups, which are mass produced piezo pickeps that are made use of in various electrical violins.

A previous Zeta staff member, John Jordan makes personalized electric violins in virtually every combination of material, strings and frets that you can imagine. Jordan began his own style workshop when he ended up being disillusioned by Zeta's significantly industrial perspective. Jordan handcrafts each tool utilizing his copyrighted form, which removes the peg-box as well as puts machined tuners near the bridge. This is developed to make the instrument lighter. Jordan is very much the true luthier of electric tools. A number of his designs, specifically the ones constructed from wood, are really eye-catching. Jordan utilizes a variety of pickups, including Zeta's proprietary model. In addition, he likes the Barbera piezo pick-up for a more "Stradivarius-like" noise, as well as recommends this pick-up for timeless artists. For rock, jazz and pop, he recommends utilizing the darker, more "Guarneri-like" Ashworth piezo pick-up. Like most various other electric violin manufacturers, his 5-string unfretted is his most prominent design. It appears to have a thinner neck than other electrics, which permits the classic 4-string acoustic gamer to make an easier transition to electrical.

Every one of the violins defined over are solid-body versions. This suggests that the instrument has no hollow, resonating chamber and consequently generates little to no sound unless it is "connected in." Nonetheless, one more means to create an "electrical violin" is to change the bridge on an acoustic violin with a piezo pick-up bridge-mount that can be connected in much like a solid body. The disadvantage to this is that these pick-ups can produce responses. Nevertheless, this choice can appear fairly great and retains the customary form and also light weight of the acoustic violin. Usual piezo versions are the Fishman series and also the L.R. Baggs. There are also a number of smaller sized "personalized" business that make these pickups, and it can be helpful to try these if you do not like the noise of the Fishman/Baggs. This configuration shares all of the same disadvantages as any other violin fitted with a piezo pick-up, as described listed below.

What all electric violins share is the requirement for a digital pick-up to transmit your playing to a system efficient in sound control, such as a pre-amp or rack device, and ultimately to another unit efficient in audio manufacturing. The two major kinds of pick-ups in operation in today's plugged-in tools are piezo and electromagnetic. Piezo pick-ups are used practically solely for electrical violins. They have specific attributes that some players locate much less than suitable. While a bow change on an acoustic violin can be completely silent to the audience, the piezo pick-up will certainly always send bow changes as well as bow noise. The reason for this is that they use sensitivity to pressure as their primary ways of recreating noise, and bow stress is constantly variable. Also, piezo pick-ups tend to sound blurry. Various piezo pick-ups feed on the marketplace, and some electrical violin business utilize their very own exclusive designs. The other type of pickup in operation for electric violins is the electro-magnetic pick-up. This is the pick-up found in the majority of guitars, and is taken into consideration the perfect kind of sound transmission. While it is feasible to build this sort of pick-up into an electric violin, it needs instead comprehensive alterations to the electric violin's internal style as well as is hardly ever made use of. Maybe in the future this sort of pick-up will end up being more readily available.

En path to reaching our ears, the electrical violin's signal usually is gone through an unit (or more frequently numerous systems) with the ability of audio adjustment. Many of the same devices utilized by electrical guitar players might also be utilized for the violin. As an example, reverb and hold-up systems by Vocabulary can give heat and also deepness of audio, while distortion boxes can allow the violin noise to approximate that of the guitar (a la Jimmy Hendrix playing America at Woodstock). There are actually numerous various devices, including foot pedals, that can manipulate the audio. Below is one of Lexicon's top of the line reverb shelf devices. Computers are additionally increasingly used for audio manipulation and also might at some point replace bulky sound control boxes.

For electric violins employing a pickup, a pre-amp is necessary to escalate the signal from your violin, and also to permit you to EQ the noise. One prominent example of a pre-amp is the L.R. Baggs Para Acoustic DI. Some electrical violins likewise have on-board pre-amps.

Additional noise control and also signal surge takes place when the signal is gone through an amplifier. Due to the fact that many amps function best with mid and also low frequency tones, it can be difficult to discover a great amp for the electrical violin, as well as even after that it is generally essential to spend a great deal of time playing with the EQ. A popular amplifier for electric violin is the Fishman Loudbox 100. An essential factor to consider when choosing an amplifier is that each leaves its very own imprint on your audio. Thus, attempting prior to acquiring is specifically crucial with amps.

For a much more true recreation of your noise, a system with audio speakers can also be utilized. The audio can still be EQ would certainly with a personal system and it is feasible to protect the acoustic sound.

Ultimately, the signal, after going through the various sound manipulation gadgets, is broadcast to our ears by audio speakers. Typically, these are constructed into the amp. You can likewise add added audio speakers to produce a stereo effect.

If you are wanting to essentially duplicate your acoustic sound, playing electric violin may not be very satisfying to you. However, for taking part in a band, it enables the player to readjust their volume to match the various other instruments, and to modify the audio to suit better with a rock or pop style of music.

That being stated, electrical violin generally needs a potentially rather costly venture right into electronic devices, which can be a great deal of fun however additionally challenging given that the audio you are looking for might take a lot of time to find, and may need testing a great deal of different equipment. Locating "your" sound can be a long trip. Several of the extra intriguing points you can do is to play on a 5-string, which includes a "c string," below your "g-string," or employ an octave pedal, which can drop your pitch an entire octave. Or you can play with distortion or a wah-wah pedal. And, while superb strategy is vital for symphonic music, electrical violin can be a lot more forgiving.

#electrical instrumentation course #cert iv instrumentation

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theliberaltony · 5 years ago

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via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

President Trump’s approval rating has improved slightly amidst the coronavirus pandemic. But the short-term gains, reflecting a possible rally-around-the-flag effect at the time of national emergency, may not hold. On the contrary, the strong likelihood of a potentially very deep recession triggered by coronavirus puts Trump’s reelection chances in jeopardy.

Aggressive measures to slow the spread of the disease, and economic stimulus packages that soften the economic blow, could allow the United States to rev back up to speed in the second half of the year and improve Trump’s position. Without that — even though there isn’t any perfect analogy to coronavirus in recent electoral history — the bulk of what we do know suggests that he could be in trouble.

We’ve written a lot about the effect of the economy on presidential elections here at FiveThirtyEight, especially in the run-up to the 2012 general election, when the economic recovery was a major focal point in the contest between Barack Obama and MItt Romney. For that reason, I’m going to compress a very complicated discussion into under 3,000 words here:

First, I’ll explain my basic view on how to implement an election forecast based on economic conditions.

Next, we’ll see what a series of relatively simple economic models would say about Trump’s potential performance in the fall.

Finally, we’ll run through some possible objections — do econometric models really apply for a president like Trump in the case of something like coronavirus?

To be clear: This is meant to be an opening bid rather than a comprehensive evaluation of these questions, many of which will be worth exploring at greater length between now and November.

A bad economy makes life harder for the incumbent party. Beyond that, we don’t know much.

I’ve often found myself trying to carve out a middle ground between people who think that presidential elections are strictly predicted by economic conditions — and people who think it all boils down to idiosyncratic factors such as candidate charisma and campaign strategy.

It might surprise you to learn that I’m agnostic in this debate, rather than siding with the seemingly more data-driven economic “fundamentalist” approach. The problem with the data-driven approach is that … there just isn’t all that much data to work with. There have been only 18 presidential elections since World War II. (Before that U.S. economic data isn’t very robust.) To account for all of the various ways that the economy can impact people’s lives (for example, joblessness, inflation, take-home income, etc.) — plus all of the other factors that influence elections (such as incumbency, wars, pandemics, scandals, etc.) — is not easy to do with only 18 data points.

In particular, we don’t have enough data to make overly specific claims about the economy. That is, any time you see what you might call a “magic bullet” claim, such as that second-quarter GDP is crucial or that per-capita disposable income is the key economic variable, you should be wary.

In fact, magic-bullet models such as these don’t perform very well out of sample. That’s because they’re prone to suffer from p-hacking and overfitting because of the small sample size of post-WWII elections and the large number of ways to design a model. In practice, what this means is that people designing these models can twist enough knobs so that they fit the past data well, but they don’t actually predict future election outcomes effectively when the modelers don’t know the outcome in advance.

At the same time, it’s very likely that there is some type of meaningful correlation between economic performance and the performance of the incumbent party’s presidential candidate. If you look at a wide range of economic variables, you’ll find that most of the more obvious ones (GDP or employment numbers) indicate that a stronger economy predicts a better performance for the incumbent party.

The best approach in our view — and the one we’ve used in FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecasts — is to combine various major economic variables into an overall index of economic conditions. To avoid overfitting, we choose variables that reflect a cross-section of economic activity rather than picking ones that happen to fit the results from a small number of presidential elections. In addition, FiveThirtyEight’s Economic Index averages how these numbers have changed at various points, instead of focusing on one particular time frame such as the second quarter.

Overall, the data shows a reasonably clear — although far from perfect — correlation between the economy and incumbent-party performance. Since 1968, the worst years for economic performance as of Election Day were 1980 and 2008, each of which were associated with steep losses for the incumbent party. The next-worst economic year was 1992, in which incumbent George H.W. Bush lost to Bill Clinton. The best years for the economy, 1984 and 1972, resulted in incumbent-party landslides, although another good year, 1968, produced a narrow loss for the incumbent Democrats.

A recession would probably make Trump an underdog — although not hopelessly so

OK, let’s plug in some numbers to our Economic Index and see what it says about Trump. The goal here is to predict Trump’s margin of victory — or defeat — in the popular vote; the Electoral College is another issue and a potential advantage for Trump; we’ll talk about that more in a moment. I’m going to run four versions of the model:

Model 1: Predict the performance of the incumbent party based on the FiveThirtyEight Economic Index as of Election Day. We’ve calculated the Economic Index back to 1968, so that’s the data we’ll use.

Model 2: The same as above, but using the data for incumbents only. That means we’d include 1972 (Richard Nixon), 1980 (Jimmy Carter), 1984 (Ronald Reagan), 1992 (George H.W. Bush), 1996 (Bill Clinton), 2004 (George W. Bush), and 2012 (Barack Obama) but exclude 1968, 1976 (Gerald Ford was an unelected incumbent), 1988, 2000, 2008 and 2016.

Model 3: Predict the performance of the incumbent party based on the FiveThirtyEight Economic Index as of Election Day and the incumbent president’s approval rating as of this point in the election year. For Trump’s approval rating, that’d be 45 percent — which is his approval in polls of likely or registered voters as of March 24 in the FiveThirtyEight presidential approval tracker.

Model 4: The same as above, but for incumbent presidents only.

And for each model, I’ll run through five economic scenarios:

If the economy looks like 1984, meaning booming growth.

1996, meaning above-average growth.

2012, meaning sluggish but positive growth.

1992, meaning a mild recession, although on the brink of recovery.1

Finally, 2008, meaning a severe recession.

All right, here’s what each economic scenario looks like under each model:

Even a mild recession could make Trump an underdog

Projected Trump margin of victory or defeat in the popular vote

Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 IF THE ECONOMY LOOKS LIKE … 538 Economic Index 538 Index With incumbents only 538 Index + Pres. Approval 538 Index + Pres. Approval with incumbents only 1984 R+12 R+18 R+9 R+11 1996 R+5 R+9 R+4 R+5 2012 R+2 R+4 R+2 R+2 1992* D+5 D+6 D+4 D+5 2008* D+11 D+15 D+9 D+11

* 1992 and 2008 indicate mild and severe recessionary scenarios, respectively.

Note that the models are reasonably similar to one another. However, there are some differences. Namely, the predictions are more sensitive to economic performance when we use data for elected incumbents only (Models 2 and 4). That means incumbents like Trump get a larger share of credit or blame when they’re managing the economy, rather than when the torch is being passed, such as between Clinton and Al Gore in 2000 or George W. Bush and John McCain in 2008.

The economy also matters a bit less once you account for a president’s approval ratings (Models 3 and 4) since approval ratings gives us some sense for how popular the president actually is in practice, rather than how popular he “should” be based on the economy. In the pre-coronavirus economy, Trump was less popular than you might have expected based on economic conditions. That could limit his upside in the event the economy recovers or somehow manages to avoid recession. At the same time, he’s popular enough — and partisanship is strong enough — to potentially limit his downside in the case of a recession.

Nonetheless, in the event of a mild recession — with economic conditions tantamount to 1992 — all four models predict that Trump would lose the popular vote by a solid amount, by margins ranging from 4.0 percentage points (Model 3) to 5.7 points (Model 2). And in the event of a severe, 2008-style recession, they predict a potential landslide loss, by amounts ranging from 9.1 percentage points (Model 3) to 14.6 points (Model 2). However, Trump has two potential saving graces:

First, the Electoral College. In 2016, there was roughly a 3-point gap between Trump’s performance in the popular vote, which he lost by 2 percentage points to Hillary Clinton, and in the tipping-point state, Wisconsin, which he won by about 1 point. Losing the popular vote by 4 to 6 points would probably not be enough to save Trump in the Electoral College, but it would at least be an open question.

Second, these models have fairly high margins of error, which ranges between roughly 5 points and 10 points depending on which version you use. Thus, a model showing Trump losing the popular vote by 4 to 6 points wouldn’t have to be that far off for Trump to win the Electoral College (and perhaps even the popular vote) in the event of a mild recession. In the case of a severe recession, a popular vote win would be quite unlikely, but he’d retain some outside chances at drawing an inside straight in the Electoral College.

Will models like these really work in 2020?

Do models built on ordinary business cycle crests and slumps work in the midst of a global pandemic — something that the U.S. hasn’t experienced in any recent election year?

I’m reserving my right to change my mind on this subject upon deeper philosophical reflection — but the truth is, we can’t really know for sure. When we release the full-fledged FiveThirtyEight 2020 election model later this year, we may have it use a combination of several different priors, some of which use our Economic Index and some of which do not. All of this is still in the whiteboard stage at the moment.

At the same time, there are some objections that I don’t necessarily find compelling. Each of these could make for its own article, and we may cover some of them at more length later. But let’s run through them quickly in a lighting round:

Could voters give Trump a pass because coronavirus is the cause of the recession? Maybe. But even in the case of ordinary economic booms and busts, it’s never entirely clear how much credit or blame the president actually deserves — and the answer is, probably less than he typically gets from the public.

Does Trump deserve more blame for a coronavirus-triggered recession than Bush did for the financial crisis in 2007 and 2008, or Carter did for the rampant inflation and the oil crisis of 1979 and 1980? Well, the Democrats will say yes — especially given Trump’s slow-footed, erratic response on coronavirus — and the White House will say no. But the more a recession brings hardship to families and communities, the more the Republican side of the argument will be pushing uphill.

But what about Trump’s approval rating improving since the coronavirus crisis began? Indeed, Trump’s approval rating has improved in recent days so that it’s among the highest ratings of his presidency. As I mentioned, his approval rating among voters is now roughly 45 percent, which is up from 43 or 44 percent since early March, while his disapproval rating has fallen from 52 to 53 percent to 51 percent.

However, compared with typical rally-around-the-flag effects that follow national crises, these gains are fairly meager. For instance, Bush’s approval rating improved from 51 percent to 86 percent following the September 11 attacks, and Carter’s approval rating nearly doubled in 1979 in the immediate wake of the Iran hostage crisis. (Granted, both of their ratings declined sharply from there.) But Trump is also not seeing nearly as much of an approval rating bounce as other leaders in Western countries, such as Italy’s Giuseppe Conte, France’s Emmanuel Macron, and the UK’s Boris Johnson. So it’s not clear that a small approval rating gain is a bullish sign for Trump.

Do “the fundamentals” even apply anymore? Isn’t everything different in the age of Trump? Sorry, but this is dumb. The 2016 election result — a narrow popular vote win for the incumbent Democrats given the mediocre economy — was actually fairly well-predicted by economic models. (These models don’t say anything about the Electoral College.) The 2018 midterms also went pretty much exactly how the fundamentals predicted given Trump’s middling approval rating and the typical midterm backlash against the incumbent party. Heck, even this year’s Democratic primary, in which Joe Biden is the very likely winner, has been good for the fundamentals-driven “Party Decides” view of the primaries in which the party establishment has a lot of influence.

Could partisanship dull the response to a recession? This is a better objection. With more polarization in the electorate and fewer swing voters, it stands to reason that Trump’s approval ratings will be less responsive to different news events than an earlier president’s might have been. And indeed, Trump’s approval ratings have trended within a narrow range so far throughout the course of his presidency, despite tumultuous events such as the Ukraine scandal and the impeachment proceeding against him.

There is an important catch, however. If the range of possible outcomes is narrower for Trump, that also means the margin of error is lower since the outcome is more predictable. Suppose that in less polarized times, a sharp recession would result in Trump being projected to lose by 12 points, plus or minus 10 percentage points. Given polarization, however, he might only be projected to lose by half as much, or 6 points — but the margin of error would also be half as much, or 5 points.

It’s also worth noting that Trump currently trails Biden in most general election polls by a wide enough margin that the Electoral College probably wouldn’t save him. So if higher partisanship means the outcome is more “locked in” and less likely to change, that isn’t great news for Trump.

Could an economic recovery in the second half of the year help Trump? Yes, it could. If there’s a sharp decline in economic activity over the next few months, and then a steep rebound, I wouldn’t want to have a model that only used second-quarter GDP and pretended everything that happened afterward didn’t matter.

At the same time, there is not a lot of certainty in how long the coronavirus crisis will last, nor how long the economic recovery would take. Moreover, a lot of epidemiologists worry about a potential second wave of the coronavirus in the fall, as occurred in the flu pandemic of 1918.

If I were Trump, I’d want to think six months ahead to the fall. That means I’d want a broad-based stimulus plan that helps ordinary Americans and small businesses to stay afloat during the weeks — or months-long shutdown. I’d want to stamp out the disease as much as possible — even if that means social distancing is in effect for a bit longer. And I’d want to have a Manhattan Project on treatments, testing and surveillance so that the coronavirus is more manageable until a vaccine is developed, which is unlikely until well after Election Day.

Frankly, this isn’t that complicated, and Trump’s incentives are well-aligned. The better off America is by November, the more likely he is to be re-elected.

Could A New Therapy Provide Immunity To COVID-19?

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junker-town · 5 years ago

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An up-to-date look at the next phase of the Marvel Cinematic Universe

Photo by Alberto E. Rodriguez/Getty Images for Disney

Expect a lot of sequels.

The Marvel Cinematic Universe closed out its “Infinity Saga” last summer with the releases of Avengers: Endgame and Spider-Man: Far From Home, which ended a 23-film cycle of big, ambitious, and thrilling storytelling. Despite what felt like a logical beginning, middle and end to its first few phases of films, Disney and Marvel have no plans to slow down anytime soon.

Captain America, Iron Man, and some of the other key Avengers from the last decade-plus are now set aside for characters stepping forward into bigger roles — such as Black Panther and Captain Marvel — and characters we have not seen in this iteration of films yet. With Disney’s merger with Fox, characters like the X-Men and Fantastic Four are on the way with Marvel Studios now having the rights to the majority of the storied comic company’s intellectual property. This comes after decades of heroes’ film rights being divided among several studios.

Here is the full list of projects that are currently in development for the next phases of the MCU.

Theatrical Releases

Black Widow (November 6, 2020)

There had been rumors for years that Scarlett Johansson would get her own solo film and now it is set to lead Marvel’s “Phase Four” as the first-post Infinity Saga movie. However, this film is set to take place between Captain America: Civil War and Avengers: Infinity War. Other cast members include David Harbour, Rachel Weisz and Florence Pugh, among others. Taskmaster will be the villain in this movie, who is known for his ability to copy the powers of the heroes he is facing.

The Eternals (February 12, 2021)

Marvel is never afraid to throw something new and weird at its audience, and did so with massive success with the Guardians of the Galaxy franchise. The Eternals is set to tell the story of a race of human-god aliens created by beings called Celestials that have lived on Earth for 7,000 years among us. The cast includes Richard Madden, Kumail Nanjiani, Angeline Jolie, Gemma Chan, Lauren Ridloff, Salma Hayek, Brian Tyree Henry, Lia McHugh, and Kit Harington, to name a few from the massive lineup. Chloé Zhao will helm the film.

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (May 7, 2021)

The MCU has a way of existing as genre films inside of a superhero film packaging. To name a few examples, we have seen political thrillers (Captain America: The Winter Soldier) and heist films (Ant-Man), but now Marvel steps into its first kung fu-inspired take. Shang-Chi is a master of the martial arts and will be played by relative newcomer Simu Liu. We have actually heard of the Ten Rings before, as they were the terrorist organization introduced when Tony Stark was kidnapped in Iron Man. Then, we met its leader, The Mandarin, in Iron Man 3. Except we didn’t because that was a fake out. Tony Leung is set to play the “real” Mandarin and Awkwafina is also set for a role in the film, directed by Destin Daniel Cretton.

Untitled Spider-Man Sequel (November 5, 2021)

Things were dicey here for a bit with Disney and Sony, who owns Spider-Man’s film rights, having a contract dispute in the summer of 2019. However, both sides came to an agreement and Tom Holland’s Spidey is back on track with Zendaya also set to return and Jon Watts directing once again.

Thor: Love and Thunder (February 11, 2022)

Thor is one of the only original Avengers set to play a role in the next phase of films and both Chris Hemsworth and director Taika Waititi are set to return. Tessa Thompson will also return as Valkyrie and Natalie Portman is making her return to the role of Jane Foster in the film. Foster is set to become the female version of Thor in this next installment with Christian Bale making his MCU debut as the film’s villain, though we do not yet know who he is playing.

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (March 25, 2022)

Doctor Strange’s solo outing was solid, but did not do a ton to movie the needle among MCU fans. That changed with the key role that he played in both Infinity War and Endgame and now he is back for another film centered around him. This time, Benedict Cumberbatch’s Strange will be joined by another Marvel hero in the form of Scarlet Witch, played by Elizabeth Olsen. Benedict Wong is set to return as Wong with Chiwetel Ejiofor also back to play Karl Mordo. The events of this film will be tied into the Scarlet Witch Disney+ series WandaVision (which we will discuss here a bit later). The film will be directed by Sam Raimi of the Evil Dead franchise and the 2000s Spider-Man films.

Black Panther II (May 6, 2022)

When Black Panther became the cultural phenomenon it was after coming out in February of 2018 — eventually earning a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars — it was only a matter of time before we got a sequel. Not much is known about the project other than Ryan Coogler returning to direct and the expectation is that the majority of the cast from the last film should return, as well. The rumor is that the sequel may feature Namor, who actually preceded Aquaman as the Atlantean/human hybrid character in pop culture.

Untitled Captain Marvel Sequel (July 8, 2022)

The only thing that is known about this film is that Brie Larson is set to reprise her role as the titular hero. Seeing as her solo film took place in the 90s and Endgame brought her into the present day, there is no shortage of possibilities for what her next outing might look like.

Unscheduled theatrical projects

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

After a brief brush with controversy over old tweets that saw James Gunn fired from the job of directing this movie, all sides came to an agreement and he was brought back. This is expected to close out the story thread of his iteration of the Guardians, but it is going to have to wait until he finishes work on DC’s The Suicide Squad, which he signed on to direct when he was originally fired by Marvel.

Untitled Ant-Man and The Wasp Sequel

A more recent addition to the upcoming slate of films with news of its development dropping in April 2020. Paul Rudd and Evangeline Lilly are expected to be back in their roles, and Peyton Reed will be back to direct after doing the last two films.

Blade

This was the surprise of all surprises when its development was announced at San Diego Comic-Con 2019. Mahershala Ali will be playing the role after lobbying Marvel to bring back the character, and the Oscar winner reaching out was too good for the studio to pass up. That is all we know about this film for now, but it has fans of the vampire hunter excited to see what Ali and the studio can come up with.

Fantastic Four

It is only a matter of time before we get to see Marvel’s iconic foursome of heroes hit the screen again after the Disney-Fox merger went through. After a few “meh” outings in the mid-2000s and a putrid reboot attempt in 2015, the characters are back where they belong. All we know so far is that the studio is developing the project with no other details available at this time. Fans have been clamoring for the real-life couple of John Krasinski and Emily Blunt to play Reed Richards and Sue Storm, respectively. You can add my name to the list of people who would love to see that casting.

X-Men

We are probably far away from the X-Men making their debut in the MCU, which is not the worst thing in the world. Fox’s franchise ran for almost 20 years and it is going to take some time for people to cleanse their pallets of the Hugh Jackman/Patrick Stewart-era of characters. They are on the way, but it is going to take some time and they might be the last of these projects that we see on the screen.

Disney+ Shows

These will appear exclusively on the Disney+ streaming platform, but Marvel maintains they will have cinematic budgets and that everything will connect to the theatrical releases, so this is a brand new layer to the MCU.

The Falcon and the Winter Soldier (August 2020)

Now that Black Widow has been pushed to the fall, this is the next MCU property we are set to see. This series is set to follow Sam Wilson (Anthony Mackie) and Bucky Barnes (Sebastian Stan) after the events of Endgame, where an old Captain America passed his shield and mantle on to Wilson. Daniel Brühl is set to return as Helmut Zemo of Civil War fame and Emily VanCamp returning as Sharon Carter. Wyatt Russell joins the cast as John Walker, the U.S. government created successor to Steve Rogers.

WandaVision (December 2020)

As we mentioned before, this series is set to lead into the events of the Doctor Strange sequel with Wanda Maximoff involved in a big way. Paul Bettany is also set to return as Vision, as it appears that Wanda has created an alternate reality where they can live together among the backdrop of sitcom-style settings from multiple decades (yeah, it’s going to get really dang weird). An adult version of Monica Rambeau, who was a child in Captain Marvel, is set to debut and be played by Teyonah Parris. Randall Park and Kat Dennings are going to return to the MCU in their roles of Jimmy Woo and Darcy Lewis, respectively.

Loki (Early 2021)

Loki stealing the Tesseract in an alternate timeline in Endgame screamed Disney+ series, and now Marvel is doing just that. The series will see Tom Hiddleston reprising his role as the God of Mischief as an alternate version of his 2012 self traveling back in time and altering history. Owen Wilson and Richard E. Grant are also set to join in some form or fashion.

What If...? (Mid-2021)

This is going to be an animated anthology series that explores how events of the MCU would have happened by changing different variables, a la if Peggy Carter was given the super soldier serum instead of Steve Rogers. The original actors from MCU films will return to reprise their roles in a voice acting capacity for the series, which will star Jeffrey Wright as The Watcher. A second season has already been greenlit, as well.

Hawkeye (2022)

A limited series is set to come for the bow-and-arrow wielder with Jeremy Renner reprising his role as Clint Barton, which would see him pass on his mantle of Hawkeye to Kate Bishop (reportedly to be portrayed by Hailee Steinfeld).

Ms. Marvel (2022)

Kamala Khan/Ms. Marvel has been a recent character in the comics with rapidly growing popularity among fans. Not a whole lot is out there on the series other than Bisha K. Ali being hired as the head writer. It is also possible Ms. Marvel is introduced in Captain Marvel’s sequel.

Moon Knight (2022)

Moon Knight is Marvel’s answer to Batman, except he has a dissociative identity disorder. So ... that’s an interesting concept. In addition to his Disney+ series, Moon Knight will be appearing in future MCU films, as well.

She-Hulk (2022)

She-Hulk is set to revolve around Jennifer Walters, the cousin of Bruce Banner/Hulk who gains powers after receiving a blood transfusion from him. Walters is a skilled lawyer and has often appeared as representation to heroes and other enhanced beings over the years. Another ... interesting concept. Marvel is reportedly looking for an “Alison Brie-type” to play this character. The lead writer on the series is set to be Jessica Gao of Rick and Morty fame.

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ausinetaus · 5 years ago

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Starting Electric Violin - An Evaluation of Tools

Learning to play electric violin shares many resemblances with studying acoustic violin, with a few vital distinctions. The initial is that nearly every acoustic violin is formed as well as tuned the same way. Electric violins, nonetheless, can come in several forms and also varieties, including 4-string, 5-string, 7-string, stressed, as well as some with the upper round removed totally to allow much easier playing in the greater placements. As well as, in fact, your acoustic violin can be "transformed" right into an electrical by affixing either a microphone or a piezo pickup to the body. Many other electric violins make use of a strong body, just like the majority of electrical guitars (such as the common fender stratocaster). What complies with is a review of electric violins and also a conversation of several of the extra equipment you will likely require.

While there are many electric violins on the market by large volume makers, most of these simply do not sound very good. A few of the much better (and also primarily handcrafted) electrical violins are examined below. I made my option from instruments that I have either played or owned.

Generally, I am not a fan of mass produced tools. Yet Yamaha makes several of the most effective. Component of the Yamaha quiet collection, the version SV-200 includes a dual piezo pick-up. This is supposed to improve the sensitivity of the tool to the nuances of your playing, especially dynamic (quantity) array. Coming in at around $1000, this tool is cheaper than the others I will certainly assess listed below. On playing the instrument, I assumed it was undoubtedly receptive, certainly a lot more so than previous Yamaha tools. The on-board pre-amp permits some sound manipulation on the tool itself instead of in a different, detached system. The down-side of this is that it enhances the weight of the violin.

Another preferred version is made by NS Designs. This business makes use of an exclusive piezo pickup that is created to be spick-and-span and seem even more like an acoustic violin in its unprocessed state. I experienced a 5-string design, and also I thought that the neck was excessively thick and the instrument instead hefty. Still, if you are seeking a clean noise, this may be a great selection.

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Zeta has gained itself a great deal of buzz partially because Boyd Tinseley, of Dave Matthews Band, makes use of a Zeta tool called (what else) the "Boyd Tinsley." Zeta likewise utilizes an exclusive piezo pick-up that has an extremely particular sound. If you have actually ever before listened to Santana play guitar, after that you probably acknowledge his unique noise that comes from the combination of his Paul Reed Smith guitar coupled with a Mesa Boogie amp. The majority of the noise appearing of that amp, no matter just how the sound is EQ would certainly appears "Boogified" to me. In a similar way, I really felt using this tool that my sound would certainly get "Zeta 'd" by the pick-up. And also you either like this noise or you do not. A big drawback to this zeta version is that it is rather heavy.

Mark Timber, An additional "shop" manufacturer of electrical violins, recognized that attempting to hold a 7-string stressed violin under the neck is quite difficult, because of the weight. Thus, he made and patented a "flying v-shape" with a strap that fits around your torso as well as holds the violin up in a having fun position. Though it can spend some time to get made use of to, this layout actually does sustain the weight of the fiddle well. Make no mistake-- adding frets to the violin is a large change for the classic player. Actually, if you have actually ever before played a mandolin, you probably realize just how much the worries can transform things. Sliding and vibrato techniques are extremely difficult on a worried instrument. In my opinion, the frets are best for allowing guitar players and also others acquainted with fretted instruments to prevent the usual demand of determine precision with finger placement which is required for playing harmonic on the an acoustic violin. The 7-string worried model, which is the flagship instrument in his line of electrical violins, is priced at $3500. Mark Timber does not utilize proprietary piezo pickups. Rather, he uses either Barbera or Schatten pick-ups, which are standardized piezo pickeps that are used in several electric violins.

A former Zeta staff member, John Jordan makes personalized electric violins in almost every mix of product, strings and also stresses that you can envision. Jordan began his very own style studio when he ended up being disappointed by Zeta's increasingly business perspective. Jordan handmades each instrument using his patented form, which eliminates the peg-box and also places machined receivers near the bridge. This is made to make the tool lighter. Jordan is very much the true luthier of electrical tools. Most of his versions, particularly the ones constructed from wood, are extremely appealing. Jordan uses a range of pick-ups, including Zeta's proprietary model. Additionally, he suches as the Barbera piezo pickup for a much more "Stradivarius-like" noise, and recommends this pick-up for classical artists. For rock, jazz as well as pop, he recommends utilizing the darker, more "Guarneri-like" Ashworth piezo pick-up. Like many various other electric violin manufacturers, his 5-string unfretted is his most popular design. It seems to have a thinner neck than other electrics, which permits the classical 4-string acoustic player to make a simpler change to electrical.

All of the violins described above are solid-body models. This suggests that the tool has no hollow, resonating chamber as well as consequently creates little to no sound unless it is "plugged in." Nonetheless, one more way to create an "electric violin" is to replace the bridge on an acoustic violin with a piezo pick-up bridge-mount that can be plugged in much like a strong body. The downside to this is that these pick-ups can create feedback. However, this option can appear fairly nice and maintains the popular shape as well as light weight of the acoustic violin. Common piezo versions are the Fishman series and the L.R. Baggs. There are also several smaller sized "custom-made" companies that make these pickups, as well as it can be valuable to try these if you don't like the sound of the Fishman/Baggs. This configuration shares every one of the very same disadvantages as any type of other violin fitted with a piezo pickup, as explained listed below.

What all electrical violins share is the requirement for a digital pickup to transfer your playing to a device efficient in sound control, such as a pre-amp or rack system, and also ultimately to another device efficient in sound production. Both major sorts of pick-ups in operation in today's plugged-in tools are piezo and also electromagnetic. Piezo pickups are made use of virtually exclusively for electric violins. They have particular features that some players discover less than ideal. While a bow adjustment on an acoustic violin can be totally quiet to the audience, the piezo pick-up will constantly transfer bow modifications and also bow sound. The reason for this is that they make use of level of sensitivity to pressure as their key means of recreating noise, as well as bow pressure is constantly variable. Additionally, piezo pick-ups tend to seem fuzzy. Many different piezo pick-ups exist on the marketplace, as well as some electrical violin firms use their very own exclusive models. The other kind of pickup being used for electric violins is the electro-magnetic pickup. This is the pickup discovered in many guitars, as well as is considered the excellent kind of audio transmission. While it is feasible to develop this type of pickup into an electric violin, it calls for instead considerable alterations to the electrical violin's internal design and also is seldom made use of. Possibly in the future this kind of pickup will become more available.

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En path to reaching our ears, the electrical violin's signal usually is gone through a device (or more frequently several devices) capable of sound adjustment. Many of the same gadgets made use of by electrical guitar players may likewise be used for the violin. For instance, reverb and also delay units by Vocabulary can provide heat and also depth of sound, while distortion boxes can permit the violin sound to approximate that of the guitar (a la Jimmy Hendrix playing America at Woodstock). There are actually numerous various devices, including foot pedals, that can manipulate the audio. Below is among Lexicon's first-rate reverb rack units. Computer systems are likewise progressively made use of for sound adjustment and might at some point change large audio adjustment boxes.

For electrical violins utilizing a pickup, a pre-amp is necessary to heighten the signal from your violin, as well as to permit you to EQ the noise. One popular instance of a pre-amp is the L.R. Baggs Para Acoustic DI. Some electric violins likewise have on-board pre-amps.

Additional sound control and signal increase takes place when the signal is passed through an amplifier. Because a lot of amps function best with mid and radio frequency tones, it can be challenging to discover an excellent amp for the electrical violin, as well as even after that it is normally necessary to spend a great deal of time playing with the EQ. A popular amplifier for electrical violin is the Fishman Loudbox 100. A crucial factor to consider when selecting an amplifier is that each leaves its very own imprint on your sound. Hence, attempting prior to buying is particularly vital with amps.

For a much more true reproduction of your sound, a system with audio speakers can also be used. The audio can still be EQ would certainly with an individual system as well as it is possible to preserve the acoustic audio.

Ultimately, the signal, after travelling through the different audio manipulation gadgets, is transmitted to our ears by audio speakers. Usually, these are developed right into the amp. You can likewise add additional speakers to produce a stereo result.

If you are aiming to basically replicate your acoustic sound, playing electrical violin may not be extremely pleasing to you. However, for joining a band, it permits the gamer to readjust their volume to match the other tools, as well as to alter the noise to fit in much better with a rock or pop design of music.

That being claimed, electrical violin normally requires a potentially instead expensive venture right into electronic equipment, which can be a great deal of fun but also difficult because the audio you are searching for might take a great deal of time to locate, as well as may require examining a lot of different equipment. Finding "your" noise can be a long trip. Some of the much more intriguing things you can do is to play on a 5-string, which includes a "c string," below your "g-string," or use an octave pedal, which can drop your pitch a whole octave. Or you can have fun with distortion or a wah-wah pedal. And, while superb strategy is important for classical music, electrical violin can be extra flexible.

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