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mariacallous · 1 year

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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been an exercise in thinking the unthinkable—from the shocking barbarity of the invasion itself, to the unexpected course the conflict has taken, to the shattering of long-established national security norms and taboos on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean.

The picture of how the war will end is about as clear as the muddy trenches scored into the black soil of the Donbas. Meanwhile, the contours of Ukraine’s post-war future are already being sketched: the billions of dollars of reconstruction aid required and the country’s prospective membership in NATO and the European Union.

Divining what Russia will look like once the conflict is over is altogether more difficult. Save for a radical change of heart in the Kremlin, perhaps the unlikeliest scenario of all, longtime Russia watchers and former U.S. government officials sketch a bleak picture of a country that will likely emerge from the war poorer, more aggrieved, and more unstable. In all likelihood, Russia will remain the world’s largest country, a major nuclear power whose shared border with NATO will more than double once Finland is admitted into the alliance. The Russia that emerges from the war will have profound ramifications for Europe, the United States, and the wider world.

“What might happen to Russia afterwards is, of course, something we need to think carefully about,” said British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly on a visit to Washington last month. “I don’t think it’s in anybody’s interest to see a failed state or a collapsed state in Russia.”

Save an improbable unconditional surrender by either Russia or Ukraine, the most likely way the war will end is with some kind of peace agreement. The nature of that deal could play a significant role in shaping the Russia that is to come and the longevity of Russian President Vladimir Putin. As recently noted by Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, Putin’s regime is both the strongest and most vulnerable it has ever been.

In invading Ukraine, the Russian president tore up the social contract that had underpinned his popularity during his 24 years in power—delivering relative prosperity to the Russian people. Hundreds of beloved Western brands pulled out of the country while sanctions sent shockwaves through the economy.

“In some sense, the risks of Putin losing office are arguably higher now than they’ve been,” said Timothy Frye, a professor of political science at Columbia University. “The main achievement of his 20-plus years in power was delivering stability to Russia.”

The war has made Putin’s position more precarious, and the Russian leader clearly views his conquest in Ukraine as an existential matter. A spectacular defeat, experts say, could pose a serious challenge to his rule, but Putin’s departure from office once the war is over is by no means a foregone conclusion. “I think we have to find a way forward based on the premise that Putin may still be president of Russia for some time to come,” said Fiona Hill, who served as Trump’s top Russia advisor on the U.S. National Security Council.

Even if Putin were to leave office, there’s a strong chance that whoever follows will be cast in his image. “I would stress that so-called Putinism is widespread in Russia across many circles,” said Mikk Marran, who served as the head of Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service until October of last year.

Opinion polls by the independent Levada Center and the Kremlin’s own internal surveys, obtained by Meduza, indicate growing support for peace talks, which could provide an avenue for Putin to bring the war to a negotiated end without risking public outrage. (This could be a fine needle to thread, however: Levada Center polling shows Russians are staunchly opposed to returning any Russian-occupied territories to Ukraine.)

“There is a chance, especially in the scenario of a negotiated outcome, that this does not become existential for Putin’s regime—but only if he is willing to move towards that aim,” said Liana Fix, a Europe fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Another potential scenario is that the war instead ossifies into an intractable stalemate. Military analysts see no signs that Putin is backing down on his ultimate goal of seizing Ukraine in its entirety, even as Russian forces have sustained an eye-watering rate of casualties—most recently estimated by U.S. officials to be close to 200,000 deaths in a year of war. Such astonishing losses would quickly come to weigh on many leaders, but from Putin’s point of view, the price of not continuing with the war would be to lose Russia itself. “In Putin’s eyes, the alternative would be to lose 145 million Russians. It’s a question of Russia’s existence,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Wars, won or lost, rarely unseat strongmen like Putin. A 2016 study by scholars Sarah Croco and Jessica Weeks found that since 1919, authoritarian leaders atop highly personalized regimes largely weathered the wars they fought—no matter how badly. Wars can even offer protection against elite coups, reinforcing a “hang together or hang separately” mentality, said Andrea Kendall-Taylor, who studied the political dynamics of authoritarian regimes as a senior analyst at the CIA.

Russian elites still see Putin as the best chance of preventing the system as they know it from collapsing entirely, Stanovaya said. In the eyes of Russia’s top officials, the two most immediate threats to the status quo come from upstart outsiders—such as Yevgeny Prigozhin, sponsor of the mercenary Wagner Group—or a popular uprising by Russian society, Stanovaya added. “There is such a prominent fear among the elites that everything can collapse that they prefer to have Putin than to face any changes,” she said.

With space for dissent in Russia winnowed by a brutal crackdown and opinion polls showing buoyant public support for the war, elite fears of a grassroots uprising appear misplaced. But sparks can be hard to spot; few people would have expected the suicide of a Tunisian fruit vendor in 2011 to spark uprisings and civil wars across the Middle East. “I always try to remind myself of the fallacy of linear thinking that we usually have. Who would have foreseen [former Soviet leader Mikhail] Gorbachev coming?” Fix said. “We should always prepare for surprises that can happen.”

The faint glimmers of hope that do exist for Russia’s future lie in its population rather than among the elite. Russians, Frye noted in his book, are wealthier and better educated than your average citizen of an autocracy. Russia’s younger generations have, in opinion polls, shown themselves to be far more open to the West, and recent surveys indicate that the country’s youth are more skeptical about the war than their elders. On paper at least, Russia is not bound to remain an authoritarian regime.

“The picture about Russia’s future is more mixed than the simple view that if we get rid of Putin everything will be fine or that Russia is condemned by the weight of history to being an autocratic regime,” Frye said.

Peering over the walls of the Kremlin, economic clouds look dark—regardless of how the war goes. The United States and its allies imposed waves of unprecedented financial penalties on Russia, which surpassed Iran to become the most sanctioned country in the world. But the effect so far has been far from the scorched-earth scenarios predicted ahead of the invasion. The International Monetary Fund predicted that the Russian economy will eke out a tiny 0.3 percent growth this year, whereas economists surveyed by the Russian Central Bank predict a less rosy—but far from catastrophic—contraction of 1.5 percent. “As long as Russia continues to sell oil and gas and commodities somewhere, the state will continue to generate revenues,” Hill said.

Sanctions experts note penalties were never intended to collapse the Russian economy but rather were intended to poleax Moscow’s war machine—something U.S. officials do believe is happening. Russia’s ability to access advanced semiconductors has been curtailed by 70 percent, the U.S. Treasury estimated last year, bringing the production of sophisticated hypersonic ballistic missiles to a near standstill. (However, Moscow has proved able to wreak havoc in Ukraine using unsophisticated Iranian-made drones.)

At the same time, Russia has spent years trying to sanction-proof its economy, and authoritarian regimes can prove surprisingly resilient: Iran is still a menace to the Middle East despite years of international efforts to isolate the regime and cut off its funding.

“There are countries around the world that somehow manage to keep it together and continue to have a lot of coercive capacity, such as Iran, but are not net contributors to the greater prosperity of mankind,” Hill said.

Another scenario batted about in the West is that Putin may have unleashed the dissolution of the Russian Federation, as its constituent republics—many of which were seized during centuries of imperial expansion—could seek to break away from Moscow. Reports that Russian ethnic minorities have been disproportionately used as cannon fodder in the war has further fueled speculation. Most experts see an entire collapse of Russia as unlikely, as Moscow has worked steadily to strip its 21 constituent republics of political power.

“I don’t see too much power in those regions to break away. I think the probability of that is quite low,” said Marran, Estonia’s former spy chief. It’s also hard to envisage Russia fragmenting without descending into bloody chaos—as happened in the former Yugoslavia, albeit on a much larger scale. Moscow fought two spectacularly violent wars in the 1990s and early 2000s, seeking to quash separatist movements in the tiny mountainous republic of Chechnya.

“If you think about a country breaking up like that with 6,000 nuclear warheads, that’s a pretty terrifying prospect,” said Angela Stent, an expert on Russian foreign policy.

Less than two years ago, in June 2021, Putin and new U.S. President Joe Biden met in an 18th-century villa on the banks of Lake Geneva as Washington sought to forge a “stable and predictable” relationship with Russia. The outreach did little to curb Moscow’s revisionist ambitions. Just a few months later, U.S. intelligence officials began to pick up the first signs that Russia was headed for war, and the U.S.-Russia relationship has pitched steeply downward ever since.

With Putin, or at least Putinism, set to stick around for the foreseeable future, Russia’s relationship with the West is unlikely to improve after the war and Ukraine will remain under threat. Necessary efforts to hold Moscow to account for atrocities committed in Ukraine will complicate matters further.

“Despite all the positive effects that a Russian defeat might have … this will not be a golden age of stability. We should prepare ourselves for Russia’s defeat as much as we should prepare ourselves for Russia’s return,” Fix said. Any hopes that Russia might reconstitute itself as Germany did in the wake of World War II ignores how that happened. “It was not that it was suddenly coming out of the souls of Germans that they need democracy and [to reconsider] their own history. It was the occupying powers which forced Germany towards de-Nazification and towards building up democratic structures,” Fix added.

While intelligence officials and policy planners across the West will keep closely analyzing Russia for clues as to where the country is heading, the range of realistic options to effect change within Russia remains highly limited.

“One thing we’ve learned in the 30 years since the Soviet collapse is that the West, the U.S., we have very little influence on what happens domestically in Russia,” Stent said.

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taisalvarez · 4 months

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#31

Semana passada não teve boletim porque eu ramelei mesmo, mas não poderia deixar de mandar o último do ano, especial de natal!

Essa semana eu li um negócio legal sobre ter disciplina, que ela é uma das formas mais intensas de amor próprio. É você sozinho se privando de gratificação instantânea e conforto pra conseguir coisas maiores no futuro. É confiar na sua palavra quando você diz que vai fazer as coisas que combinou com você mesmo que faria. Isso fez bastante sentido pra mim.

Krampus

Todo mundo conhece o Pai do Natal, mas ninguém dá bola pro amigo dele que é ruim das ideia, o pobre Krampus.

Na enciclopédia Brittanica ele é definido como "a half-goat, half-demon monster that punishes misbehaving children at Christmastime", ou seja, um monstro meio bode e meio capeta que castiga crianças malcriadas na época do natal.

De acordo com a lenda, ele chega no dia 5 de Dezembro com correntes, um sino e um ramo de galhos pra bater nas crianças levadas, e o Papai Noel chega dia 6 com presentes.

Todo ano tem uma parada do Krampus na Áustria e na Alemanha, e esse evento parece ser aterrorizante! Talvez só perca na escala de terror pra marcha dos Pikachus!

Leia o artigo original na íntegra aqui: https://www.britannica.com/topic/Krampus

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Recomendação de filme: The Muppets Christmas Carol(1992) [O Conto de Natal dos Muppets]

Charles Dickens é o autor de "Um Conto de Natal", seu livro mais famoso e uns dos responsáveis pelo conceito de natal moderno que festejamos hoje, o famoso "espírito natalino".

O livro foi adaptado para o cinema 24 vezes, mas a melhor versão de todas, de acordo comigo mesma, é a dos Muppets!

Ebenezer Scrooge é um cacura podre de rico e avarento, que explora seus funcionários ao máximo, não ajuda a caridade, e pensa apenas nele mesmo.

Na noite antes do natal ele é assombrado pelo fantasma dos seus dois sócios que faleceram, e o avisam que ele será visitado pelos três espíritos do natal: o passado, o presente, e o futuro.

Em cada visita ele é levado a confrontar seu próprio passado, e o que levou a se tornar essa pessoa desgostosa com a vida; seu presente e as consequências das suas ações na vida das pessoas que dependem dele; e o futuro, após a sua morte, onde as pessoas não só não sentem a sua falta como ficam aliviados que ele se foi.

Depois de entender que ainda havia tempo de rever suas ações e tornar o natal de todos melhor ao compartilhar suas bênçãos, a ele é dada uma chance de voltar atrás no mesmo dia, e graças aos espíritos do natal, todos podem se alimentar e celebrar com suas famílias.

O filme é uma versão fiel ao livro. Só que com os Muppets e o Michael Cane.

10/10, filme perfeito pra assistir no natal todos os anos.

O filme foi dirigido pelo filho do Jim Henson, que é o criador dos Muppets, e ele fez um trabalho de amor e homenagem ao seu pai.

Na biografia do Michael Cane ele fala sobre quando ele recebeu o convite para participar do filme:

“Over the years, I watched all my friends appear on The Muppet Show, and I tried not to mind that I was never invited,” Caine grumbled in his 2010 memoir The Elephant To Hollywood, “but of course, in the end, I got to play the big part!”

(Ao longo dos anos, eu via todos os meus amigos aparecendo no The Muppet Show, e eu tentava não me importar que ninguém nunca me chamava," Caine resmungou na sua biografia de 2010 "Do Elefante para Hollywood", "mas obviamente, no fim das contas, eu tive a chance de fazer o papel principal!)

É muito gostoso assistir a um filme onde todo mundo que faz parte do elenco e da produção amam o que faz e querem que o projeto dê certo. Isso sempre transparece no filme e acho que isso é o que torna ele o filme mais especial pra ser visto no natal!

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Se você achou o Krampus esquisito, espera só até você conhecer o "Caga Tío" da cultura catalã! https://www.shbarcelona.com.br/blog/pt/tradicoes-natal-catalunha-caga-tio/

#english #newsletter #ingles #filmes #indicações #recomendações #krampus #natal #muppets

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reportwire · 2 years

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Opinion | Waging Psychological War Against Russia

2022-09-07 01:30:00 Of course, there are differences between modern America and the modern Russian Federation; most Russians today don’t want their country to ape the United States — they are nostalgic about the “Great Russia.” Polling by Moscow’s independent Levada-Center suggests 75 percent of Russians, fed a steady diet of anti-Americanism and Russian propaganda by state media, view the U.S.…

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if-you-fan-a-fire · 3 years

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“Imagine a creature left behind by evolution. It is obedient, passive, and dependent on others for its care. Devoid of morals, it lies in order to survive. Such is the fate of Homo Sovieticus, the personality type identified by Yuri Levada’s sociological surveys on the ‘simple Soviet man’ of the late 80s. Homo Sovieticus was expected to go extinct with Russia’s post-Soviet transition, only to receive an alarming new lease of life. Scholars and journalists such as Masha Gessen and Joshua Yaffa have invoked the concept to attribute the country’s current brand of authoritarianism under Vladimir Putin to the subservient mindset of its citizens.

Gulnaz Sharafutdinova, a political scientist at King’s College London, rejects the ‘hopelessness’ and ‘Russophobia’ of such interpretations. She calls for ‘an emotionally intelligent’ approach that is focused on ‘empathizing with the Russian population, rather than pointing to where it went wrong’. In The Red Mirror, she attempts to diagnose the Russian condition without relying on Homo Sovieticus or assuming the superiority of its imagined foil, the liberal Western subject. She proposes that polling data like Levada’s can be stripped of its Cold War-era ideological foundations and retrofitted to produce a more convincing assessment of the collective psyche. ‘You can’t step twice into the same river—a classic saying’, she writes. ‘Or can you? . . . How can we use the insights in social psychology to arrive at a less biased understanding and give credit and the blame where they are due?’

Sharafutdinova grew up in the republic of Tatarstan, an oil-rich region with a majority Tatar population, and received her PhD from George Washington University. Her first book, Political Consequences of Crony Capitalism inside Russia (2010), examined the rise of corruption in the provinces. As privatization and free elections were introduced simultaneously in the early 90s, access to power meant access to property, and vice versa. Sharafutdinova identifies two political models that emerged: ‘centralized and noncompetitive’, the system favoured by the tight-knit Tatar elite, and ‘fragmented and competitive’, which characterized the Nizhnii Novgorod region under Yeltsin ally Boris Nemtsov. In the latter, politicians aired corruption scandals over the course of nasty campaigns, leading many voters to see elections as elite infighting and to respond with apathy and protest voting. As competitive democracy delegitimized itself, the Tatar model looked increasingly appealing. Popular disillusionment with democratic institutions united the self-interest of Putin’s circle with the desires of an alienated public. This, Sharafutdinova argues, is why most Russians didn’t mind when Putin abolished regional gubernatorial elections in 2004 (according to polls) and why his popularity remained high even as oil prices dropped.

By March 2014, when ‘little green men’ wearing unmarked uniforms appeared on the island of Crimea, apathy had given way to euphoria. The Red Mirror is focused on ‘high Putinism’—the enormous esteem the president enjoyed in the wake of the annexation, when his approval rating regularly exceeded 80 per cent. It fell to pre-Crimea levels of 65–70 per cent after the announcement of the highly unpopular pension reform in June 2018, which raised the retirement age by five years for men and eight for women, but has held relatively steady ever since. Like some liberal American writers who have made forays into Trump country, Sharafutdinova says that her study is motivated by a ‘personal urge’ to understand why many of her friends and family in Russia take a positive view of Putin. She does not accept that their perceptions stem from ‘brainwashing and propaganda’, ‘cultural preferences for a strong hand’, or ‘moral bankruptcy and the inability of Russian people to distinguish right from wrong’, as the Homo Sovieticus paradigm would suggest.

‘Homo Sovieticus’ inverted the Bolshevik concept of the New Man, which promised to reform human beings into a perfected, generalizable type. According to later observers, the revolutionary social experiment had gone horribly awry. Émigré sociologist Alexander Zinoviev created the first popular formulation of Homo Sovieticus in his novelistic depictions of Soviet life from the early 80s. Zinoviev’s interest in taxonomizing socialist man was expressed in a different key by Eastern Bloc dissidents who spoke out against what they saw as their peers’ passivity and conformity, captured by Vaclav Havel’s famous example of a greengrocer who puts a ‘Workers of the World, Unite!’ sign in his window. As Sharafutdinova explores here and in a 2019 article for Slavic Review (‘Was There a “Simple Soviet” Person? Debating the Politics and Sociology of “Homo Sovieticus”’), these ideas dovetailed with the model of totalitarianism inspired by Hannah Arendt. Scholars of the totalitarian school, backed by generous funding from the US government, shared an assumption that the collective nature of state socialism destroyed the individual autonomy essential for democracy and free markets.

Levada put notions about the ‘simple Soviet man’ on an empirical foundation when he took over the All-Union Center for Public Opinion Research in the late 80s, as part of Gorbachev’s effort to enlist the social sciences in reforming the Soviet system. At the time, many members of the intelligentsia were decrying Russians’ degradation as a means of calling for change. Levada’s research combined concerns about the Soviet Union’s debased inhabitants (referred to in ironic domestic parlance as the ‘sovok’) with approaches derived from Talcott Parsons’ social systems theory. Levada discovered the cowering practitioner of doublethink that he had set out to find, while expressing confidence that this figure would die out along with the Soviet state.

While Western Sovietology faded away, criticism of the backward masses persisted among Russian intellectuals who sought a scapegoat for the country’s apparent failure to adapt to capitalist modernity. Levada’s successor Lev Gudkov, who has headed the independent Levada Center since 2006, announced that Soviet man was mutating and taking on increasingly cynical and aggressive forms. According to Gudkov’s Abortive Modernization (2011), ‘the main obstacle for Russia’s modernization “. . . is the type of the Soviet or post-Soviet man (homo sovieticus), his basic social distrust, his experience of adaptation to violence, that makes him incapable of receiving the more complex moral/ethical views and relationships, which, in turn, makes the institutionalization of new social forms of interaction impossible”. Gudkov’s argument became the go-to framing for Anglophone journalists in search of a hot (if reheated) take: ‘The Long Life of Homo Sovieticus’, a 2011 headline in The Economist proclaimed. Its usage intensified after Donald Trump’s election, when the increasingly ambiguous status of the liberal Western subject rekindled longings for its constituent other and the associated Cold War verities. The persistence of Soviet man is the central conceit of Gessen’s The Future Is History: How Totalitarianism Reclaimed Russia (2017) and Yaffa’s Between Two Fires: Truth, Ambition and Compromise in Putin’s Russia (2020). Both authors are staff writers for The New Yorker.”

- JOY NEUMEYER, “BURYING HOMO SOVIETICUS.” New Left Review. Issue 129 May/June 2021.

#homo sovieticus #soviet union #sovietology #post-soviet #levada center #failure of sociology #cold war #putinism #russian federation #the russian character #national stereotypes

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dostoyevsky-official · 2 years

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do most Russians generally seem to understand that Putin is full of it? I imagine they can’t do much about it either way but just wondering

most russians support putin. the open questions are: will they keep supporting him after war with ukraine? what do they think of DNR/LNR independence? and the answer is that it is too early to really say, although it's known that war with ukraine is incredibly unpopular in russia. the people i know are shocked and appalled by putin's speech, but i'm a little bit of an outlier.

here is an interview with the director of Levada-Center, Russia's independent polling agency, translated and edited by me:

Is it possible to really talk about unqualified support for DNR/LNR independence among Russians?

Of course we don't have any research on the latest events, but the data we've collected in the last few years, in particular, at the end of 2021, allow us to more or less understand how people react. They have several ideas about the conflict and what's happening in general. First: America is to blame for everything. Not Ukraine, but America and the West. They pressure Ukraine, which is plotting something against the unrecognized republics, and Russia should interfere on their [the unrecognized republics'] side, because they are the Russian-speaking population, people with Russian passports, in general - our people. It's a situation where our people get beaten - of course, we need to help and protect our people.

Over the past seven years we have regularly asked people how they see the fate of these republics. Some—a little more than a quarter—said that these republics should be independent; a quarter said that they should be incorporated into Russia. About the same number of people said that they should remain part of Ukraine. The rest had difficulty answering.

That is to say, there is no consensus. But when we asked: what if these republics ask to be part of Russia, should they be annexed, about 70% said that yes, they should. We have to help, we have to accept them. So I think now that the decision has been made, and it is presented as a threat to the Russian-speaking brotherly population, not even to the brotherly population, but to the same people, like in 2014, the majority will most likely support [this decision].

What are people's attitudes toward possible military action?

It's hard to predict, because what can we compare it to? We can only compare with 2008 [when there was a war with Georgia].

In Georgia everything happened very quickly, but here, if, God forbid, something starts, it will be long, with casualties on all sides. And it is difficult to predict how long it might last.

In one of your columns you wrote that society is "internally prepared for conflict. Specifically for a military conflict?

In essence, yes. Again, society is subconsciously prepared, because there is already so much talk about it. But this does not mean that attitudes will not change, that there will not be fatigue. It is impossible to predict how the situation will develop, how people will react to it. Initially, there will probably be mobilization around the leader. And then what?

Does the government care about ratings when making decisions?

Of course, they pay attention to ratings, but what Putin does in foreign policy, he does not do for ratings, but rather because he can afford it. The public will not judge him, and the ratings will not seriously suffer.

If you compare the situation with 2014, how has it changed?

Now the level of anxiety, the fear of war is higher. There's also a difference in the state of civil society—back then it was freer, more visible, there was an anti-war movement, there were opposition politicians who had support after 2011-2012 in part of society: [Boris] Nemtsov, [Alexei] Navalny, the whole bunch. Now there is no one, except Yabloko, which is not so popular, so to speak. And rallies are banned. That's why we don't see an anti-war movement: both independent politicians and the independent media have been thinned out.

Have Russians' attitudes toward Ukraine changed over the years?

In general, the attitude toward Ukraine is 50-50. The attitude toward Ukrainians is predominantly good: they are ordinary people, they do not decide anything, they have suffered. There is definitely a bad attitude with regards to the leadership of Ukraine. When [Ukrainian President Vladimir] Zelensky was elected, there were hopes for improvement, but they quickly melted away. "Ukraine is not self-sufficient:" people mostly agree with this. But no one really cares about Ukraine.

here is a new article by the NYT on the issue:

For months, Russians of all political stripes tuned out American warnings that their country could soon invade Ukraine, dismissing them as an outlandish concoction in the West’s disinformation war with the Kremlin. But this week, after several television appearances by Mr. Putin stunned and scared some longtime observers, that sense of casual disregard has turned into a deep unease.

Pollsters say that most Russians probably support Mr. Putin’s formal recognition of the Russian-backed territories in eastern Ukraine this week, especially because they had no choice in the matter and because no significant political force inside the country has advocated against it.

But going to war is one of Russians’ greatest fears, according to the Levada Center, an independent pollster. And now that possibility has lurched closer toward becoming reality.

[...] “This hatred that you could read in him so clearly, it wasn’t fake,” said Gleb Pavlovsky, a political analyst and former adviser to Mr. Putin, referring to the Russian leader’s angry speech and a cryptic televised meeting with his Security Council on Monday. Mr. Pavlovsky acknowledged that this week’s events had forced him to revise his skepticism that the president would go to war against Ukraine. “This is not a game,” he said.

[...] Mr. Putin’s address on Monday, for all its emotion, was in tune with the grievances of many older Russians still smarting from the poverty that followed the fall of the Soviet Union and the lost prestige that accompanied it.

But for others, especially younger people, the sudden threat of war and of another downward spiral in relations with the West feel like the imminent loss of much of the freedom and opportunity that remains in Russia.

And yet there is desperately little that Russians can do to change their country’s trajectory. [...] In society, opposition to this aggressive policy has been muted. The liberal-minded activists who could have been expected to lead an antiwar movement have largely been exiled or imprisoned.

[...] In central Moscow this week, Aleksei Ivanov, 53, who works in a construction company, reflected that even the Crimea annexation had made him “neither richer nor happier.” Ever since, he said, it has felt like Russia’s leadership runs the country focused on their own goals.

“They want something, they have some plans,” he said. “Common people don’t fully get their true intentions.”

#ukraine #russia

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moonpagesblog · 3 years

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Diabolik Lovers Lost Eden

Ecstasy No 8

Place: Castelo Do Eden

Azusa: Subaru-san... Está tudo bem?

Yuma: Os caras sakamaki me convenceram a vir. Kou também estava indo e agora tenho que esperar.

Azusa: Sim... ...Tenho certeza que subaru-san sabe Sobre Eve também...

Ruki: Sim. Porem em primeiro lugar, não podemos agir a Menos que lhe perguntemos o que está acontecendo.

Kou chega.

Azusa: Kou... ...Como foi?

Kou: ...Não foi bom. Subaru-kun, ele não vai sair de jeito nenhum.

Azusa: ... ...Entendo.

Yuma: Tsc... ...Não é isso...

Shin chega correndo.

Shin: --Ei, não se deixe enganar por isso!

Azusa: Shin-san... ...Algo aconteceu?

Shin: O clã das víboras está atacando este castelo!

Kou: Hah... ...!?

--> Black fade

Place: Quarto do castelo víbora.

*batidas na porta*

Seiji: Estou entrando.

Yui: Papai... ...

Seiji: ... ...Não desanime. Estou feliz em ver você assim, certo?

Yui: ...Não. Isso mesmo... Me desculpe.

Seiji: Não, não importa. Tenho certeza que você está cansada também.

-> Monologo

Papai me acariciou suavemente na cabeça e me Disse que ele estava fora.

Ele diz que fez um esforço desde que sua Filha havia sido levada por um vampiro.

Queria recuperar minhas forças e vencer a luta Pelo poder.

E, finalmente, ele subiu ao topo do poder da igreja.

-> Fim do monologo.

Yui: Papai...

( Pai, Eu queria muito ver você)

( A ideia de querer eliminar os demônios é inaceitável, Mas fico feliz com esse sentimento...)

Seiji: ... Você nunca mais ir ver os demônios.

Eu te amo... Hmm...

*ele beija ela*

Yui: Eh...!?

(Agora, eu fui beijada nas costas da mão?)

(Eu não tinha esse tipo de coisa até agora...)

--Selection *Eu odeio de alguma forma ( correta) *Eu sou parte de uma família, então não tenho intenção.

Yui: ( Eu não gosto disso...)

(... ...Eu não acho que eu deveria pensar sobre isso. Qual é a família do seu pai...)

Seiji: ... ...O que se passa? O que aconteceu?

Yui: ... Uh, sim. Nada

Em vez disso, pai. Eu tenho algo para te perguntar.

O que a igreja vai fazer quando atacar E destruir os vampiros...?

Seiji: Não me disseram o que fazer depois... ... Mas todo o mal deve ser destruído?

Yui: Mal... ...??

(Claro, pode não ser possível dizer que todos Os vampiros são bons, mas...)

(Não é estranho que o mal seja alguma coisa?)

...Pai, vamos parar. Vamos repensar e voltar ao Mundo inferior juntos?

Seiji: ... ....

Eu não posso fazer isso. ... É tarde demais.

Yui: eh....!?

~cena: lua vermelha.

-> Monologo.

--É tarde demais.

No momento em que meu pai disse isso, O pior aconteceu em minha mente.

Por que meu pai é um caçador de vampiros.

Se alguma coisa acontecer ao subaru-kun e A todos,

Na frente dos meus olhos confusos, meu pai, Que sorriu com o canto da boca, sorriu baixinho.

Heaven: primeira palavra e terceira palavra.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

English

Ecstasy No 8

Place: Eden Castle

Azusa: Subaru-san ... Is everything okay?

Yuma: The sakamaki guys convinced me to come. Kou was also going and now I have to wait.

Azusa: Yes ... ... I'm sure subaru-san knows About Eve too ...

Ruki: Yes. But first, we cannot act at all. Unless we ask you what's going on.

Kou arrives.

Azusa: Kou ... ... How was it?

Kou: ... It was not good. Subaru-kun, he will not leave at all.

Azusa: ... ... I see.

Yuma: Tsc ... ... That's not it ...

Shin comes running.

Shin: - Hey, don't be fooled by this!

Azusa: Shin-san ... ... Did something happen?

Shin: The viper clan is attacking this castle!

Kou: Hah ... ...!?

--Black fade

Place: Viper castle room.

* knock on the door *

Seiji: I'm coming in.

Yui: Dad ... ...

Seiji: ... ... Don't be discouraged. I'm happy to see you like this, right?

Yui: ... No. That's right ... I'm sorry.

Seiji: No, it doesn't matter. I'm sure you are tired too.

-> Monologue

Dad stroked me gently on the head and Said he was out.

He says he has made an effort since his Daughter had been taken by a vampire.

I wanted to regain my strength and win the fight By power.

And finally, he rose to the top of the church's power.

-> End of the monologue.

Yui: Dad ...

(Dad, I really wanted to see you)

(The idea of wanting to eliminate demons is unacceptable, But I'm happy with that feeling ...)

Seiji: ... You never go to see the demons again.

I love you ... Hmm ...

* he kisses her *

Yui: Eh ...!?

(Now, was I kissed on the back of the hand?)

(I haven't had that kind of thing until now ...)

--Selection * I hate it somehow (correct) * I am part of a family, so I have no intention.

Yui: (I don't like that ...)

(... ... I don't think I should think about it. What is your father's family ...)

Seiji: ... ... What's going on? What happened?

Yui: ... Uh, yes. Nothing

Instead, father. I have something to ask you.

What the church will do when it attacks And destroy the vampires ...?

Seiji: I was not told what to do next ... ... But must all evil be destroyed?

Yui: Mal ... ... ??

(Of course, it may not be possible to say that all Vampires are good, but ...)

(Isn't it strange that evil is something?)

... Dad, let's stop. Let's rethink and go back to Underworld together?

Seiji: ... ....

I can not do it. ... It's too late.

Yui: eh ....!?

~ scene: red moon.

-> Monologue.

--It's too late.

The moment my father said that, The worst happened in my mind.

Because my dad is a vampire hunter.

If anything happens to the subaru-kun and To all,

In front of my confused eyes, my father, Who smiled out of the corner of his mouth, smiled softly.

Heaven: first word and third word.

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newstfionline · 3 years

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Saturday, December 26, 2020

Getting creative to help the homeless (AP) After three years on the streets, Tiecha Vannoy and her boyfriend Chris Foss plan to weather the pandemic this winter in a small white “pod” with electricity, heat and enough room for two. Portland this month assembled neat rows of the shelters, which resemble garden sheds, in three ad-hoc “villages”—part of an unprecedented effort unfolding in cold-weather cities nationwide to keep people without permanent homes safe as temperatures drop and coronavirus cases surge. “We just get to stay in our little place. We don’t have to leave here unless we want to,” said Vannoy, wiping away tears as they moved into the shelter near a downtown train station. “It’s been a long time coming. He always tells me to have faith, but I was just over it.” ... “Those (are) folks who would under normal circumstances maybe come into a drop-in center to warm up, or go into the subway to warm up, or go into a McDonald’s to warm up—and just not having those options available to them. What then?” asked Giselle Routhier of the Coalition for the Homeless in New York City.

Raise your mittens: Outdoor learning continues into winter (AP) Cindy Soule’s fourth graders in Maine’s largest city have studied pollination in a community garden. They solved an erosion problem that was damaging trees. They learned about bear scat. Then came a fresh layer of snow and temperatures that hovered around freezing—but her students were unfazed. Bundled up and masked, they scooted outside with their belongings in buckets. They collected their pencils and clipboards, plopped the buckets upside down in the snow, took a seat and went to work. The lesson? Snow, of course, and how snowflakes are formed. Schools nationwide scrambled to get students outdoors during the pandemic to keep them safe and stop the spread of COVID-19. Now, with temperatures plummeting, a smaller number of schools—even in some of the nation’s most frigid climes—plan to keep it going all winter long, with students trading desks in warm classrooms for tree stumps or buckets.

Explosion in Nashville that damaged 20 buildings, injured 3 people an ‘intentional act’ (USA Today) Authorities believe an explosion that occurred in downtown Nashville early Christmas morning and was felt for miles was an “intentional act” sparked by a vehicle. Police responded to reports of a suspicious vehicle parked outside the AT&T building just before 6 a.m. Upon arrival, police said an officer “had reason” to alert the department’s hazardous devices unit, which was en route, when a “significant explosion” happened. Three people were hospitalized with injuries, police said. At least 20 buildings were damaged, Nashville Mayor John Cooper said. The sound of the explosion could be heard from miles away, and people reported windows shaking from South and East Nashville. “It looks like a bomb went off,” Cooper said. The downtown area will be “sealed off” for further investigation and to make sure everything is “completely safe.”

US to require negative COVID-19 test from UK travelers (AP) The United States will require airline passengers from Britain to get a negative COVID-19 test before their flight, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced late Thursday. The U.S. is the latest country to announce new travel restrictions because of a new variant of the coronavirus that is spreading in Britain and elsewhere. Airline passengers from the United Kingdom will need to get negative COVID-19 tests within three days of their trip and provide the results to the airline, the CDC said in a statement. The agency said the order will be signed Friday and go into effect on Monday. “If a passenger chooses not to take a test, the airline must deny boarding to the passenger,” the CDC said in its statement. The agency said because of travel restrictions in place since March, air travel to the U.S. from the U.K. is already down by 90%.

Many just want a hug for Christmas this year, Queen Elizabeth says (Reuters) All many people want for Christmas this year is a simple hug, Britain’s Queen Elizabeth said in her annual festive message, saying it would be hard for those who lost loved ones to COVID-19 pandemic or were separated by curbs on social mixing. In her traditional pre-recorded Christmas Day address to the nation, the 94-year-old monarch repeatedly spoke of hope for the future whilst acknowledging millions of Britons would be unable to have their usual family celebrations this year. “Of course for many, this time of year will be tinged with sadness; some mourning the loss of those dear to them, and others missing friends and family members distanced for safety when all they really want for Christmas is a simple hug or a squeeze of the hand,” Elizabeth said. “If you are among them, you are not alone. And let me assure you of my thoughts and prayers.” “Remarkably, a year that has necessarily kept people apart has in many ways brought us closer,” said the queen, adding the royals had been inspired by stories of those who volunteered to help others in need. “In the United Kingdom and around the world, people have risen magnificently to the challenges of the year and I’m so proud and moved by this quiet indomitable spirit.”

For the European Union, It’s a Pretty Good Deal (NYT) The European Union emerges from fraught negotiations with Britain over its exit from the bloc with a sense of satisfaction—that it has maintained its unity and its core principles, especially the integrity of the single market of now 450 million consumers that is the foundation of its influence. And it is now looking ahead to its life without Britain. The final deal is a free-trade agreement that recognizes Britain’s desire to leave the single market and the customs union while preserving tariff-free, quota-free trade in goods with the European Union. To that end, Britain agreed to a mechanism, with arbitration and possible tariffs for violations, that would keep its regulations and subsidies roughly in line with those of Brussels, to prevent unfair competition. But the deal will require inspections of goods to prevent smuggling. The deal also covers many mundane but crucial matters of visas, health insurance, and air, rail and road travel. It treats Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom, as within the E.U. customs area to prevent the need for a hard border on the island, but requires some checks on goods going from Britain to Northern Ireland. And the deal reallocates fishing areas and quotas, given that Britain is now an independent coastal state.

Pope Francis celebrates low-key Christmas Eve Mass amid coronavirus restrictions (Fox News) Pope Francis celebrated Christmas Eve Mass on Thursday night amid coronavirus restrictions that reduced a normal crowd of as many as 10,000 congregants to a group of fewer than 100 people, according to reports. During his homily, the Roman Catholic leader urged followers to reach out to the needy, noting that Jesus Christ was considered an outsider. “The Son of God was born an outcast, in order to tell us that every outcast is a child of God,” the pope said. May the Child of Bethlehem help us, then, to be generous, supportive and helpful, especially towards those who are vulnerable, the sick, those unemployed or experiencing hardship due to the economic effects of the pandemic, and women who have suffered domestic violence during these months of lockdown,” he said.

Turkey debates law that would increase oversight of NGOs (Reuters) Turkey’s parliament began debating a draft law on Friday that would increase oversight of non-governmental organisations and which, according to rights campaigners, risks limiting the freedoms of civil-society groups. The government says the measure, covering “foundations and associations”, aims to prevent non-profit organisations from financing terrorism and to punish those who violate the law. Civil-society groups, including Amnesty International and the Human Rights Association, said terrorism charges in Turkey were arbitrary, and that the draft law would violate the presumption of innocence and punish those whose trials were not finalised.Investigations based on terrorism charges have been launched against hundreds of thousands of people under a crackdown following a failed coup in 2016. Hundreds of foundations were also shut down with decrees following the coup attempt.

Half of Russians sceptical Kremlin critic Navalny was poisoned (Reuters) Half of Russians believe that Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny was either not poisoned, as he and Western governments contend, or that his poisoning was stage-managed by Western intelligence services, a poll showed on Thursday. The poll, released by the Levada-Center, shows how hard it remains for Navalny to shape public opinion in Russia even as his case attracts wide media attention in the West and his own slickly-produced videos of what happened to him this summer rack up millions of views online. Navalny, one of President Vladimir Putin’s most outspoken critics, was airlifted to Germany for medical treatment in August after collapsing on a plane in Russia. Germany has said he was poisoned with a Soviet-style Novichok nerve agent in an attempt to murder him, an assertion many Western nations accept. The poll by Levada, which is regarded as more independent than state counterparts, showed only 15% of Russians believed what happened to Navalny was an attempt by the authorities to rid themselves of a political opponent. By contrast, 30% thought that the incident was stage-managed and that there was no poisoning, and 19% said they believed it was a provocation orchestrated by Western intelligence services.

Hong Kong street refrigerator keeps giving (AP) Most people who head to Woosung Street in Hong Kong’s old-school neighborhood of Jordan are visiting its popular restaurants serving everything from curries to seafood. Others may be headed for a lone refrigerator, painted blue, with a sign that reads: “Give what you can give, take what you need to take.” The door of the fridge sitting outside a hockey academy opens to reveal it is stuffed with packets of instant noodles, biscuits, tins of food and even socks and towels for anyone who may need them. Ahmen Khan, founder of a sports foundation on the same street, said he was inspired to create a community refrigerator after seeing a film about others doing the same thing. He found the refrigerator at a nearby refuse collection point and painted it blue. “It’s like a dignity, that when you go home, you open your fridge to get food,” Khan said. “So I want the people to just feel like that. Even if it’s a street, it’s their community, it’s their home, so they can simply just open it and then just put food there, and collect the food.” Khan’s blue refrigerator project went viral on social media and people have been dropping by to leave food inside.

Israeli jets fly over Beirut, explosions reported in Syria (AP) Israeli jets flew very low over parts of Lebanon early Friday, terrifying residents on Christmas Eve, some of whom reported seeing missiles in the skies over Beirut. Minutes later, Syria’s official news agency reported explosions in the central Syrian town of Masyaf. Other Syrian media said Syrian air defenses responded to an Israeli attack near the town in the Hama province. The Syrian Ministry of Defense issued a statement saying Israel “launched an aggression by directing a barrage of rockets” from the north of the Lebanese city of Tripoli towards the Masyaf area. Israeli jets regularly violate Lebanese airspace and have often struck inside Syria from Lebanese territory. But the Christmas Eve flights were louder than usual, frightening residents of Beirut who have endured multiple crises in the past year, including the catastrophic Aug. 4 explosion at the city’s port that killed over 200 people and destroyed parts of the capital.

#headlines #news

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escritordecontos · 4 years

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"STAR WARS: a ascensão Skywalker" fui ver no meio de um monte de adeptos fiéis seguidores gente louca que aplaude as cenas chora grita e vibra mais que a torcida no Flamengo em final de Libertadores.

ATENÇÃO, ESTE POST PODE CONTER SPOILER. Fique esperto. Camarão que dorme a onda leva. Acho que só poderia ter sido pior se tivesse ido ver o filme na sessão das 01h00, fui às 13H50 a primeira sessão do dia. Comprei o ingresso pelo app de manhã, restavam poucos assentos para essa louca viagem ao mundo de Star Wars. Que diga-se por sinal, amo muito, mas não sou louco fanático para sair por aí fantasiado de Jedi. Apesar de ter comprado um Mc Lanche Feliz só para ganhar um brinquedo, o Darth Vader, of course, porque nós é lado sombrio da força, mano. Tinha acaba de almoçar, por sinal um almoço ótimo com amigo G, amigo de duas décadas que está de passagem por Curitiba, almoçamos no restaurante do MON - Museu Oscar Niemeyer, uma suculenta costela assada com legumes grelhados e arroz, e o melhor de tudo, achei que viria uma porção pequena, própria desses restaurantes com cara de gourmetizados cool and hype, por causa de onda de master chef e tal, ledo engano, veio uma generosa porção de uma costela bovina, não como suíno, nada de porco, nem bacon que é adorado amado idolatrado por 9 em 10 pessoas, então, uma costela suculenta da qual me fartei. No cinema sentei ao lado de um cara que estava com um balde de pipoca, ah!, que cheiro horrível. Quando o filme começou as letrinha subiram - "Há muito tempo, numa galáxia muito, muito distante..." metade do cinema entrou em êxtase e frenesi, roupas eram arrancadas, as pessoas se abraçavam e se mordiam e tal, a outra metade em catarse infartou e morreu, mas ficaram ali mesmo mortos com os olhos arregalados vitrificados para ver o filme antes que suas almas infames fossem levadas para o canto mais sombrio e afastado do inferno. A cada cena uma manifestação de emoção, uns choravam e outros aplaudiam, mas não vi ninguém masturbando o colega da poltrona ao lado. Também, com óculos 3D dá para ver pouca coisa fora da tela. O filme é bom, previsível, cenas que se repetiram em outros da série, os mocinhos são sempre mocinhos e os vilões nem sempre terminam vilões, exatamente como acontece nas novelas. Na vida também é assim, num determinado ponto da existência as pessoas se regeneram e viram pessoas decentes. O filme que promete ser o último Star Wars, depois de 40 anos de sucesso a força parece ter encontrado seu desfecho. O que realmente impressiona, e daqui pra frente vem um spoiler, e o poder do imperador Palpatine. Sim, Palpatine volta. Confesso que Palpatine sempre me fascinou, sempre senti uma atração por esse personagem com ares de extremamente poderoso e sedutor. Sim, o lado sombrio me seduziu. Merecidamente no final o imperador Palpatine vem terrivelmente poderoso em todos os sentidos. E também terrivelmente mais feio e horripilante. O velho Sith concentra em si poder para controlar uma frota de milhares de Imperial Star Destryers. Numa batalha gigantesca ele levanta as mãozinhas muito feias dele e solta aquele raiozinho que se transforma num raiozão e está a ponto de destruir todos os rebeldes que afrontam seu poder. Nesse momento pensei que teríamos um final muito surpreendente, o mal vencendo o bem. Os mocinhos jaziam sucumbidos no chão sem forças para enfrentam o grande Palpatine. Então a mocinha da história, Rey, se levantam e empunha dois sabres de luz e invocando a força de todos jedi (jedi não flexão de gênero e nem de número) confronta o imperador Palpatine que sucumbe à luz e explode morre se escafede deixa de existir se fode toma no cu e perde a batalha final. É o fim do Império, da Primeira Ordem e da Ordem Final. E é o fim de Star Wars que tomou 40 anos de nossas vidas ou se você tem menos de 40, tomou sua vida inteirinha. O filme acabou, sai correndo para mijar e em seguida fui a uma loja de brinquedos comprar uma boneca para dar de presente de Natal para a minha sobrinha.

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uwhe-arts · 10 months

Photo

. . . | uwhe-arts

#levada #photographers on tumblr #madeira island #uwhe-arts #levada wandering #water course #flowing water #uwhearts #trees #nature #artists on tumblr

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mariacallous · 2 years

Text

Almost half of Russians (47 percent) experienced anxiety or fear when they learned about the orders for “partial mobilization,” according to a poll conducted by the Russian polling organization the Levada Center at the end of September.

Other popular emotions among citizens of the Russian Federation were “shock” and “pride for Russia” (23 percent each). 13 percent felt indignant, and 11 percent were depressed.

In the context of the draft, Russians also started following the war more closely – the share of people interested in events in Ukraine rose to 66 percent (in August it was 51 percent, and in March, 64 percent). 88 percent answered affirmatively to the question “are you worried about the course of events in Ukraine?” – up from 74 percent in August.

Levels of interest in the war correlate directly with age – only 45 percent of Russians aged 18-24 follow it, compared to 78 percent of Russians aged 55 and older.

The level of support for Russian troops’ actions in this survey was the lowest it has been since the beginning of the war. 44 percent said they “definitely support” troops’ actions and 28 percent said they “somewhat support” them. In August those numbers were 46 percent and 30 percent, respectively, and in March – 52 percent and 28 percent.

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xtruss · 3 years

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China v Russia v America: Is 2021 The Year Orwell’s 1984 Comes True?

With Putin and Xi moving into an ever closer alliance, Joe Biden’s untested US administration may be pushed to the brink

— Simon Tisdall | 4/11/2021 | Guardian USA

It may just be coincidence that Russia was piling military pressure on Ukraine last week at the same time as China noisily rattled sabres around Taiwan. Spring, to mangle Tennyson, is when a young man’s fancy turns to war – and that twisted maxim may even apply to ageing thugs such as Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.

A Ukrainian serviceman on the frontline with Russia-backed separatists, near Zolote, Ukraine. Photograph: AFP/Getty Images.

Russia and China are moving into ever closer alliance. While there is no evidence of direct collusion over Ukraine and Taiwan, presidents Putin and Xi are doubtless fully aware of each other’s actions, which have an identical, mutually reinforcing effect: putting the wind up Joe Biden’s untested US administration.

What’s now unfolding could be portrayed as the ultimate fulfilment of George Orwell’s nightmarish vision, in his dystopian novel, Nineteen Eighty-Four, of a world divided geographically, politically and militarily into three rival super-states: Oceania (North America plus Britain), Eurasia (Russia and Europe), and Eastasia (China).

Publication of Orwell’s book in 1949 coincided with the formation of the US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato) and the emergence of Joseph Stalin’s Soviet Union as a nuclear-armed power. It also saw the proclamation of the People’s Republic of China by Mao Zedong. Yet these were early days.

Orwell’s prediction of an endless, three-way global confrontation proved premature. China needed time to develop. The Soviet Union eventually imploded. The US, declaring a unipolar moment, claimed victory. Yet today, by some measures, Orwell’s tripartite world is finally coming into being. 2021 is the new 1984.

If China and Russia are presently ganging up on the US and its satraps, that’s par for the course in a world where no one superpower is allowed to dominate the other two. In 1972, Richard Nixon sought China’s help against the Soviets. Maybe the US and Russia will one day combine against Beijing. As Meat Loaf sings it, two out of three ain’t bad.

This is where truly global danger lies – in the hazy gap between words and deeds in the intensifying trilateral struggle between superpowers

Advocates of a multipolar world will say this is too simplistic, and that the strategic balance is more subtle and complex. Tell that to people in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region and occupied Crimea, who face a deeply unsubtle Russian military build-up along the “line of contact”.

The consensus among analysts is that Putin is not about to invade. So what is he up to? Apologists suggest he was provoked by a Ukrainian decree last month declaring the re-taking of Crimea, seized by Russia in 2014, to be an official government objective – and by renewed talk of Ukraine joining Nato.

A more banal explanation is that Moscow is pressurising Kiev to break the stalemate in the so-called Minsk peace process – after the latest Donbas ceasefire collapsed. Putin enjoyed a big, but fleeting, ratings boost after Crimea’s annexation. Last month, he used a lavish televised rally marking its seventh anniversary to recapture lost popularity.

It seems he failed. Russians are preoccupied with the coronavirus pandemic (and the incompetent official response), falling incomes, and a worsening socio-economic outlook. More than ever, Putin’s Soviet empire restoration project appears irrelevant, especially to younger people.

Putin is under fire at home from supporters of the much-persecuted opposition activist, Alexei Navalny, and over corruption allegations. Only 32% of Russians trust their president, according to a recent Levada Center poll. Seen this way, the Ukraine build-up looks like a calculated distraction for domestic political purposes.

Yet Putin may also be deliberately testing US and European resolve. He will not have forgotten how George W Bush pledged undying support to Georgia’s newly democratic government in 2005, then ducked out when war erupted with Russia in 2008.

As analyst Ted Galen Carpenter noted last week, Biden’s White House has likewise affirmed “unwavering US support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of Russia’s ongoing aggression in the Donbas and Crimea”. This looks, at best, like a hostage to fortune, and at worst, a cruel deception.

“The parallels between Washington’s excessive encouragement of Ukraine and Bush’s blunder with respect to Georgia are eerie and alarming,” Carpenter wrote. The US and Nato would no more go to war with Russia over eastern Ukraine than they would to save South Ossetia, he suggested. And if they did, well, that’s world war three right there.

This is where truly global danger lies – in the hazy gap between words and deeds in the intensifying trilateral struggle between superpowers. Will Putin, goaded by Biden’s “killer” insult and numerous intractable disputes, call the US president’s bluff? On the other side of the world, will Xi?

China’s surly leader looks like a man prone to brooding. He has suffered many slights at the hands of the west, including accusations of genocide in Xinjiang, brutality in Hong Kong, and aggression in the seas around China. What drives him now as his forces besiege Taiwan?

One answer is that Xi may also hope to divert attention from domestic problems. Maybe he faces unseen challenges within China’s communist party. More probably, he would like to mark July’s centenary of the founding of the CCP by finally conquering what was the last redoubt of Chiang Kai-shek’s nationalists.

Taiwan reunification would seal Xi’s legacy. Ever closer personal, strategic and military ties with Putin’s Russia mean that he would face no pushback from that quarter, and some applause. The Taiwanese vow to fight, but cannot prevail alone. Only the Americans really stand in his way.

Is Xi simply trolling the Washington proles? Or will he defy them and make a move on Taiwan soon? The Orwellian nightmare for Biden and the west would be a simultaneous Russian invasion of Ukraine and a Chinese attack on Taiwan.

Oceania’s choice: a war on two fronts, or humiliation all round. Welcome to Winston’s world.

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earthstory · 6 years

Video

vimeo

Original video caption:

“"Europe’s hidden Hawaii" – no other comparison is more common when people try to describe their impressions of Madeira. And indeed the similarities between the two are astonishing. Both are islands of volcanic origin in the middle of an ocean. Both have the soaring, cloud-piercing mountains covered in bright green foliage with waterfalls flowing down the sides. Both have pretty stable temperatures all around the year presenting an adorable “flora gallery”. Each island has their own traditional dance form and as you drive the winding roads around the islands you will be torn between a romantic vibe and the feeling you ended up in Jurassic Park.

As on Hawaii, it is all about outdoor activities on Madeira, too: swim in volcanic pools, relax on a deserted beach, go tobogganing down the steep streets of Monte towards Funchal, take a Levada walk, explore some lava caves, check out “the doors” (on Santa Maria Street in the capital of Funchal nearly every single door is painted with a different design) and, of course, explore the laurissilva forests which existed on this island for at least 1.8 million years and are a World Heritage Site by UNESCO. And if you ever come to Madeira yourself, don’t miss to rent a car and drive up to Pico do Areeiro, the 3rd highest peak on the island ;-)

Until then – come with us on a short road trip adventure here on VIMEO! Enjoy, LAiO =)

#Madeira #Vimeo #travel #nature #landscape #Geology #cave #beach #waves #mountain #kid #toddler #wanderlust #clouds #panorama #vacation #waterfall #pico de areeiro #The earth story #flowers

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educamundo · 3 years

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Digitação: dicas para ser mais produtivo no dia a dia - Educamundo

Ao buscar qualificação profissional, muitas pessoas tendem a priorizar conhecimentos em informática, como Internet, Windows e Pacote Office. Esses tipos de aperfeiçoamento se enquadram totalmente como o que o mercado atual procura e espera dos candidatos. No entanto, a maioria das pessoas esquece que saber digitar com destreza é tão importante quanto os demais conceitos e programas de computador. Nesta via, estudantes e profissionais que visam o sucesso, precisam incluir um bom curso online de digitação no cronograma de estudos o quanto antes.

Nada melhor do que um ambiente virtual exclusivo para aprender técnicas ligadas a uma das funções elementares dos teclados de computadores e notebooks: a digitação. Aqui no Educamundo você encontra esse espaço dedicado aos seus estudos e muitas opções de capacitação, como o Curso Online Noções Básicas para Digitação‍, ideal para usuários iniciantes, intermediários e até mesmo avançados que queiram aprimorar suas habilidades.

Quer ir além dos saberes comuns de informática? Considere estudar em cursos online com certificado que ampliem sua visão estratégica e potencializem sua performance no mercado de trabalho. Nosso curso de digitação online é uma dessas alternativas primorosas, que não deixam nada a desejar quando o assunto é formação profissional.

Aproveite o conteúdo deste artigo e de nosso curso online para entender como aprender digitação de modo eficaz, as técnicas precisas, a postura que o digitador deve ter ao trabalhar e muitas outras dicas valiosas. Acompanhe e tire todas as suas dúvidas.

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Conhecendo o teclado

O primeiro passo para quem deseja iniciar a carreira de digitador ou até mesmo em outras áreas, visando maior autonomia e dinamismo ao digitar, é conhecer a fundo o teclado do computador e seus diferentes layouts. Este, inclusive, é o tópico inicial de nosso curso online noções básicas para digitação.

Sendo o teclado uma das principais ferramentas para digitalizar dados e estabelecer comunicações, podemos também considerá-lo essencial para qualquer trabalho computadorizado desde que a informática começou a fazer parte do dia a dia da sociedade. Afinal, sem ele, fica muito mais complicado de criar e editar arquivos ou navegar pela internet.

Aqui no Brasil, vale saber, há dois layouts válidos atualmente: o ABNT e o ABNT2. Ambos são estabelecidos pela Associação Brasileira de Normas Técnicas, órgão responsável por determinar padrões para equipamentos, trabalhos, documentos, etc. Eles são semelhantes, pois usam o sistema QWERTY, criado em 1870, ainda no auge das máquinas de escrever.

A diferença básica entre os dois é que o ABNT 2 (o que é utilizado nos teclados e notebooks fabricados atualmente) possui a tecla Alt Gr, utilizada em combinação com outras teclas, garantindo a escrita de símbolos especiais, como /, ?, °, £ e ¢.

Com a ajuda de cursos a distância conceituados, você descobre a distinção entre os teclados de desktop e de notebooks, a posição de cada tecla e as técnicas para digitar rápido e sem erros. É uma maneira muito prática de estudar e elevar o nível profissional, por que não apostar em cursos online sobre como aprender digitação?

Treinando a cópia de documentos

Uma das habilidades dos digitadores profissionais é a cópia de documentos, bastante trabalhosa de se fazer, mas que pode se tornar descomplicada após a apuração de técnicas específicas. Em nosso curso de digitação online você conhece de forma precisa como manter o ritmo de produtividade ao copiar documentos variados para o computador, seja para qualquer finalidade.

Mesmo com a possibilidade de escanear materiais diversos, haverá momentos em que será necessário saber como digitar rápido. Por exemplo, estudantes podem precisar copiar trechos de livros para trabalhos acadêmicos, bem como profissionais de áreas diversas podem ter que digitar dados contidos em formulários.

Uma das lições especificadas em cursos online é a organização estabelecida antes mesmo de começar a cópia. É importante que você esteja em um local apropriado, com a postura correta e com o documento a ser copiado em uma posição que favoreça a visualização amplificada. Além disso, é primordial fazer uma ou duas leituras prévias da papelada em questão, para acostumar seu cérebro com a linguagem, o assunto e até mesmo a disposição das palavras e linhas.

Descubra em nosso curso online noções básicas para digitação diversas sugestões para otimizar esse processo. Com diversas dicas interessantes você saberá copiar materiais da faculdade, trechos de artigos e livros referenciados para o TCC, contratos, acordos, formulários, rascunhos, entre muitos outros documentos.

Dicas de Ergonomia

Este é um importante tópico de nosso curso online de digitação e que não pode ficar de fora de seus estudos. Para quem não sabe, ergonomia é uma ciência voltada para analisar a relação que o homem tem com o trabalho que exerce. No caso da informática, é estudada a ergonomia física do operador do computador, que deve prestar atenção quanto à postura, à posição das mãos, aos cuidados com a visão, entre outros quesitos essenciais.

Quem quer saber como aprender digitação para se beneficiar profissionalmente, academicamente e até pessoalmente, deve ter em mente que também é necessário ficar atento à qualidade do trabalho realizado. Isto é, não adianta nada você saber como digitar rápido, se atua o tempo todo em uma posição inadequada, gerando dores ou estresse.

Para que isso não ocorra, o mais indicado é descobrir técnicas de ergonomia, evidenciadas em cursos online com certificado relacionados ao tema. Uma dica elementar é a escolha da cadeira, que deve dar suporte para as costas por completo. Confira abaixo outras sugestões para digitar de forma saudável e complemente seu aprendizado no curso de digitação online.

Mantenha os pés apoiados no chão ou em um suporte especial.

Não gire, incline ou faça outros movimentos repetitivos e/ou bruscos com corpo ao digitar.

Deixe os cotovelos junto ao corpo e bem relaxados.

A cabeça e o pescoço devem estar sempre alinhados.

A linha correta de visão deve ser para o topo ou centro da tela do computador.

Não deixe de descobrir as aulas completas sobre ergonomia em nosso curso online de digitação. Além de aprender técnicas indispensáveis, você tem a chance de compreender a relação que o corpo tem com qualquer tipo de trabalho realizado. Outros cursos a distância também complementam conhecimentos, como o Curso Online Fisiologia - Noções Gerais‍, voltado para esse campo.

Como aprender digitação

Não podemos dizer que aprender digitação é uma tarefa simples. Assim como qualquer outro tipo de aprendizado, sobretudo em computação, demanda dedicação, paciência e investimento nas ferramentas certas. Se você está decidido que quer aprimorar seus conhecimentos nessa técnica, deve buscar lições completas e conceituadas para valer todo o seu esforço.

O curso relativo do Educamundo é uma dica bacana para quem está iniciando essa prática, pois possui tópicos voltados para esse tipo de público. Ele perpassa pelos modelos de teclado, as posições das teclas, componentes do computador e até mesmo noções básicas do Windows, temas amplos e que são ideais para situar os alunos em relação à digitação.

Afinal, por que essa técnica é tão necessária? Por que devemos nos dedicar em aprendê-la? E como aprender com qualidade? Estas são questões interessantes e que precisam ser levadas em conta durante o estudo técnico. Veja algumas dicas para aprender digitação com qualidade:

Tenha acesso a um bom computador, com teclado que siga os padrões brasileiros para facilitar o aprendizado.

Procure um bom curso de digitação, como o que oferecemos aqui no portal, para compreender tudo sobre essa prática.

Anote todas as dicas. Não deixe nenhuma de lado, pois pode ser que você precise futuramente.

Treine bastante. A prática leva à perfeição, isso não é mentira.

Continue aperfeiçoando suas técnicas lendo, vendo vídeos, fazendo cursos, etc.

Estas são apenas algumas sugestões, mas que são valiosas para quem deseja aprender digitação para trabalhar, estudar, fazer as tarefas do dia a dia, entre outras atividades. O que achou?

#advantages-list { color: #7F8C8D; } .commum-content { line-height: 100%; } .course-list-footer{ line-height:90%; padding-top:5px; clear:both; }

Os certificados do Educamundo podem ser usados para:

Prova de Títulos em Concursos Públicos

Horas complementares para faculdades

Complemento de horas para cursos técnicos

Progressão de carreira em empresas

Turbinar seu currículo

Revolucionar sua vida profissional e acadêmica

Como digitar rápido

A velocidade na digitação é algo que impacta bastante no resultado de qualquer trabalho. Por isso que, além de memorizar o teclado e aprender a digitar com facilidade, muitos estudantes, profissionais e demais usuários de computador buscam dicas para digitar mais rápido. Aliás, as empresas de hoje em dia valorizam bastante quem possui essa habilidade, portanto, não há motivos para não se aprimorar quanto a isso.

É preciso saber que não há mágica para se tornar um mestre da digitação, mas isso não é razão para desânimo. Seguindo os passos completos expostos em nosso curso online e treinando dia a dia, com certeza você atingirá um ótimo nível de destreza. Não é complicado e, dependendo de sua dedicação, o aprendizado pode não demorar tanto.

Conheça algumas sugestões para você pegar afinidade com o teclado e digitar rápido:

Favoreça o ambiente no qual você fará a digitação. A cadeira, como falamos no tópico sobre ergonomia, deve ser confortável e estar numa altura adequada; a mesa deve estar livre, caso precise fazer cópia de algum material; o clima agradável, nem muito frio ou calor, enfim, tudo isso impulsiona o trabalho bem feito.

Preste atenção em sua postura ao se sentar frente ao PC ou notebook. Siga as digas de ergonomia para se adequar e começar a digitar sem maiores problemas.

Memorize as teclas de seu teclado, lembrando que ele pode seguir o padrão ABNT ou ABNT2. Essa etapa é extremamente importante para que o processo dê certo do começo ao fim.

Posicione sua mão corretamente no teclado. Sempre que você começar a digitar, os dedos indicadores devem pousar sobre as teclas F e J, que até possuem marcas plásticas para assinalar a posição certa para os usuários. Os demais dedos devem acompanhar a mesma fileira, até o mindinho.

Diga o nome das letras em voz alta ao clicar, mas com os olhos fechados. Essa é uma técnica para acelerar seu raciocínio.

Faça testes de velocidade em sites apropriados. Um dos mais utilizados é o 10 Fast Fingers, que possui palavras de diversos idiomas, incluindo o português, e dá a pontuação ao usuário no final. Uma ótima maneira para medir a sua evolução.

Enriqueça seu currículo com nosso curso online de digitação

Este artigo serviu como uma prévia para nosso curso online específico sobre digitação. Ao começar a estudar nele, bem como em outros cursos online com certificado aqui do portal, você logo perceberá que seu nível de conhecimento sobre assuntos de interesse elevou tanto, que pode se diferenciar de seus concorrentes no mercado de trabalho.

Se você quer saber como digitar rápido para melhorar sua produtividade nos estudos, no dia a dia na empresa, nos trabalhos como freelancer ou até mesmo para tarefas diárias no computador, procure se aprimorar em cursos a distância de qualidade. Faça sua inscrição no Educamundo e garanta o acesso livre para centenas de cursos online de mais de 20 áreas de atuação por um investimento único de R$ 69,90. Uma ótima oferta, não é mesmo?

Comece agora a dar um passo à frente em sua carreira. Comente com a gente o achou de nossa dica de curso online e da abordagem do presente artigo. Esperamos você mais vezes por aqui, até breve!

Apareceu primeiro em: Educamundo - https://www.educamundo.com.br/blog/digitacao-nocoes-basicas

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neatstuffcollection · 4 years

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Ahthion, R., 2020. Communist Nostalgia As The Reality Of Bourgeois Democracy Hits Home In Eastern Europe. [online] Medium. Available at: https://medium.com/@rsahthion/communist-nostalgia-as-the-reality-of-bourgeois-democracy-hits-home-in-eastern-europe-3960aa341560 [Accessed 21 April 2020].

Communist Nostalgia As The Reality Of Bourgeois Democracy Hits Home In Eastern Europe is an article which discusses the nostalgia a large percentage of people living in the Former Eastern Bloc experiences in regards to the Soviet Union.

The main topic of the article is the Eastern Europeans' dissatisfaction with the political and social situation which their countries ended up in. R. Ahthion also discusses the West's influence on the Former Eastern bloc, which some see as oppressive and forceful.

“Stalins approval rating hit a record high amongst Russians recently showing a 70 percent approval rating of Josef Stalin published by the independent Levada Center pollster.”

“The bourgeois press (from the Economist to Der Spiegel) couched this surprise longing for their socialist systems as ‘nostalgia’. A fine continuation of the twist of words to suit their agenda when discussing really existing socialist states.”

“Where any piece of data can be used as an attack on those states. “If the young want socialism they’re young and naive and not experienced enough in life. If the old that lived under socialism want their socialist systems back they’re ‘nostalgic’ for their youth.”

“People in the former Yugoslav countries, scarred by the ethnic wars from the 1990s and still outside the EU, are nostalgic for the socialist era of Josip Broz Tito when, unlike now, they traveled across Europe without visa.“Everything was better then. There was no street crime, jobs were safe and salaries were enough for decent living,” said Belgrade pensioner Koviljka Markovic, 70. “Today I can hardly survive with my pension of 250 euros ($370 a month).”

“I am afraid that a majority of eastern Germans do not identify with the current sociopolitical system.”(Ibid)

“As far as I’m concerned, what we had in those days was less of a dictatorship than what we have today.”(Ibid)

“For Romania the article concludes that it is not some nostalgia for their communist past but “people have felt increasing social and economic pressures and therefore their desire for social security guarantees has increased, regardless of education levels, age or social status.” In other words the economic security has worsened under capitalism and an increase of economic pressure has been the result.”

“Bulgaria is becoming Americanized,” said renowned Bulgarian artist, Nikola Manev, who lives in Paris. “I pick up the phone and they talk to me in English, I go to a restaurant and it’s called Miami. Don’t we have our own names for God’s sake? <...> Looking on the surface, I see new buildings, shops, shiny cars. But people have become sadder, more aggressive and unhappy,” he said, prescribing spiritual cures.”

“The liberals who read this worry about a disillusionment with democracy and not the fact that bourgeois democracy is an illusion of democracy. In the West you can change the ruling party or president but you can’t change the policies.”

[referring to Eastern Europe struggling economically] “These issues of course are not some accident. They are the result of the anarchy of the market in which competing capitalist nations viciously compete to plunder raw resources, cheap labour, export opportunities and markets. Eastern Europe was systematically de-industrialised. They were to be places to dump western goods. And with the de industrialisation of their economies the jobs went to the west. The young packed their bags and left to seek jobs in Germany, Britain and France.”

(Ahthion, R., 2020)

I found this article rather profound; it provided me with answers for questions that I had after first getting into the topic of post-Soviet nostalgia. For instance, it provided statistical figures about the percentage of people experiencing the nostalgia, and explained the West's influence on the situation in the post-Soviet countries. While Russian media is becoming too hard to trust in relation to the West, seeing balanced and detailed commentary on it from an (assumingly?) Western author provided me with much needed information. Another aspect I appreciate about the article is the lack of overcomplication in the language it uses, laying the facts and statistics out rather simplistically.

Keywords: Eastern Europe / post-Soviet, nostalgia, Soviet Union, destruction / disappointment, political issues, social issues, soft power

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