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pleaserelaxfc · 3 years

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NWSL Challenge Cup Thoughts: Week 1, Central

As always, just wanted to put my very non-expert thoughts about women's soccer onto paper. Particularly for the very first week of the Challenge Cup, with teams playing competitive matches for the first time with their new rosters, while possibly not putting as much weight on these games as they will on regular season games, these will probably not be very accurate! That said, here they are.

Expected Final Standings:

Kansas City Current

Houston Dash

Racing Louisville

Chicago Red Stars

General Thoughts:

The Central group seems to be the weakest overall, but I think Kansas City made some excellent moves in their offseason, and as long as the major pieces they picked up stay healthy, they should be able to make a pretty good showing. For a fairly short-term competition like the Challenge Cup, that should be doable. Racing and the Red Stars both had significant player turnover and got new coaches in the offseason, so my guess would be they take a little while to warm up and I'll give the Dash second place in this group by default.

Having taken a more thorough look at these rosters, I am also noticing a shocking lack of proven NWSL center backs, so very much looking forward to several high-scoring games.

Team-by-Team Breakdown:

Current

The Current made some really big moves in their offseason, picking up Lynn Williams and Sam Mewis to shore up their attack and midfield. They did trade away Kiki Pickett, Darian Jenkins, and Gaby Vincent, and gave up former captain Rachel Corsie. This leaves them with a pretty small roster without a huge amount of depth, but their starting lineup should be solid - with Kristen Hamilton, Hailie Mace, Victoria Picket, Kristen Edmonds, and AD Franch in addition to the two USWNT players, as well as a couple of promising draft picks, they should have a strong attack and a decent defense to start off. The concern is if any of those players get injured, there isn't a lot of experience behind them (particularly in the forward ranks).

The Current have also made some big off-field commitments in terms of building a new dedicated training facility, a new NWSL-specific stadium for future years, and an agreement to play all of their games this season at Children's Mercy Park, Kansas City's MLS stadium. These moves will likely make them a more attractive long-term destination for NWSL talent, if they can afford to bulk up their roster, which is currently one of the smallest in the league.

Expected starters: Franch; Mace, Ball, Loera, Edmonds; Scott, Mewis, LaBonta, Pickett; Williams, Hamilton

Dash

The Dash have had a fairly quiet offseason, making a couple of minor changes to their lineup, but largely keeping the same core. The most impactful losses for the Dash will likely be Kristie Mewis in the midfield, Veronica Lastko as a forward, and the combination of Abby Dahlkemper and Megan Montefusco (Oyster) at center-back. They have acquired a few new players to make up for these departures - defender Julia Ashley may end up playing a center-back role, and Elizabeth Eddy sometimes played in the midfield for Gotham before joining the Dash - but in general these signings might keep the Dash at about the same place they were last season, but won't really improve the team. The only exception here is María Sánchez, brought in from Liga MX Femenil after having spent a brief period with the Dash on loan last season - she showed a lot of promise during that period.

On the whole, I think this team will be able to pull together enough to create something in the Challenge Cup, but the longer time period and the more competitive matches of the regular season will probably require something more out of the team than they currently have.

Expected Starters (depending on injuries): Campbell; Chapman, Naughton, Ashley, Hanson; Schmidt, Eddy, Groom; Prince, Sánchez, Daly

Racing

After coming into the league as an expansion team with a brand-new roster a year ago and then firing their coach mid-season for misconduct, Racing also have a largely new roster this year after waiving and trading several players. Most shockingly (at least for those of us who are not watching their practices), they waived their captain, goalkeeper Michelle Betos, but they also traded their vice-captain, Savannah McCaskill, and another senior player in Yuki Nagasato, and they now have (I think) the youngest roster in the league. Cheyna Matthews is also out on maternity leave, and it seems the team does not expect her back this season, while Nadia Nadim will likely not be making an appearance until the summer. They have added a couple of new, solid players to their roster - in particular, Jess McDonald will bring experience to the front line, and Jaelin Howell will add some stability to their midfield, likely starting as the 6.

The biggest concern for Racing - and it will be a big concern - will be their defense. They currently only have five players listed as defenders, and while Gemma Bonner is a solid center back and Emily Fox an incredible outside back, the other three have either not been hugely impressive or have been injured for most of their tenure with the club. This problem will only get worse in the regular season, with Fox at least expected to miss significant time for national team commitments - with only 22 rostered players, I expect they will try to make at least one more defensive signing.

Expected Starters: Lund; Fox, Martin, Bonner, Merrick; Howell, Milliet, Kizer; McDonald, Ekic, Salmon

Red Stars

There has been quite a lot of turnover at the Red Stars, to say the least. Of their 26-player roster, six were 2021 or 2022 draft picks, and a seventh (Yuki Nagasato) was traded for from Louisville (although she had previously played with the Red Stars). Add to that two players on maternity leave, two apparently still out on loan, and Kealia Watt's significant injury during the playoffs, and the Red Stars' roster only has fourteen active players who were with the team last season (and only eleven with more than 100 minutes last season).

Of the hits to the Red Stars roster, probably the most significant are the injured forward Kealia Watt, who may be returning at some point this season, but has not yet reported to camp, and the trade of Sarah Gorden, who played every minute of the 2021 season for the Red Stars. The team will likely use Nagasato and their rookies to address Watt's absence, but the loss of Gorden may be compounded, at least for the next few weeks, by Kayla Sharples still being on loan in Australia - Sharples filled in at center back for Tierna Davidson during the Olympics, and those three were practically the only players who played that role for the entire season. (Sharples' team was eliminated from the playoffs last weekend, and I would expect her to return to Chicago fairly soon and slot into the starting lineup quickly after that). Davidson started all three of the Red Stars' preseason games with a rotating cast of other defenders, most of whom I think of as outside backs, although I wasn't able to watch the games, so I'm not sure how they actually played. (Tragically, this probably means the end of any speck of hope that Davidson will someday play left back).

Expected Starters (depending on injuries): Naeher; Wright, Davidson, Morse, Milazzo; Gautrat, Colaprico, DiBernardo; Nagasato, Pugh, Hill

Game Predictions:

Racing vs. Current (7:30, 3/18):

I think the Current will win, and my guess on a scoreline is 4-2. Both teams have relatively strong attacks and relatively weak defenses, so assuming they can get some on-field cohesion going early on I think this will be a high-scoring game overall, but I think the Current is slightly stronger in every part of the field than Racing.

Dash vs. Red Stars (7:00, 3/20):

I think the Dash will win, and my guess on a scoreline is 2-0, but I'm not sure anything would surprise me here, especially since I haven't seen the injury report yet. I am more confident that it will probably be determined based on which one of Katie Naughton or Tierna Davidson is better able to play two roles at once.

#nwsl #challenge cup

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