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icedanceupstarts · 5 years

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A Guide to GP Spot Anxiety

It’s roughly a month till the GP assignments come out, and even in our semi-hiatus we’ve noticed a lot of worry over which teams will get assignments and who will be left out to dry. We put together this list so that everyone can most efficiently direct their anxious energy and prayer circles for their faves on the bubble.

Worlds Top Ten, Guaranteed Two Spots so really who cares about anything else:

Seeds 1-3

Papadakis/Cizeron

Sinitsina/Katsalapov

Hubbell/Donohue

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Seeds 4-6

Stepanova/Bukin

Weaver/Poje

Chock/Bates

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Gilles/Poirier

Guignard/Fabbri

Hawayek/Baker

Fournier-Beaudry/Sorensen

Guaranteed Spots: 20/60

Other Teams From Worlds With A Shot:

When you get past the two guaranteed spots for the top ten, the things to start looking at are the World Standings and Season's Best lists. Top 24 on either guarantees you one, top 24 on both doesn't technically guarantee you two but does make it very likely. Let's break it down!

Natalia Kaliszek/Maksym Spodyriev WS 9, SB 11 Not guaranteed two, but come on. After their breakout season they're definitely walking away with two spots. They're Fine!

Sara Hurtado/Kirill Khaliavin WS 17, SB 15 Same for the reigning Spanish National Champs! Who knows what lineups they'll be facing but their spots are secure. They're Fine!

Lilah Fear/Lewis Gibson WS 21, SB 13 After the Discobrits breakout season they're almost certainly walking away with two spots. They're Fine.

Marie-Jade Lauriault/Romain Le Gac WS 15, SB 17 Deja vu. If they really need help there's always the host spot to fall back on, but either way They're Fine.

Shiyue Wang/Xinyu Liu WS 10, SB 23 All of this has happened before and all will happen again. They're Fine.

Juulia Turkkila/Matthias Versluis WS 39, SB 29 Guaranteed nothing but pretty decent chance of walking away with at least one spot, maybe even two if they cross their fingers a little and/or someone withdraws after initial selection. Better Than None

Allison Reed/Saulius Ambrulevicius WS 38, SB 30 Decent chance of getting a spot, if not in the initial selection then as a substitute if there are withdrawals later. Better Than None

Shari Koch/Christian Nuchtern WS 42, SB 34 Best chance out of the two German teams to snag a late spot, but nothing's guaranteed. GP Purgatory

Anna Yanovskaya/Adam Lukacs WS 33, SB 38 May or may not get something. They train in Russia which is helpful, but it's still up in the air. GP Purgatory

Alexandra Nazarova/Maxim Nikitin WS 32, SB 42 So it turns out that after four straight season on the Grand Prix, their chances for a fifth aren't looking as good as one would hope. Only 42nd on the SB list and with a lower World Standing than their countrymen Popova/Byelikov has left them in a dicey position. Light some candles. GP Purgatory

Misato Komatsubara/Tim Koleto WS 24, SB 39 Guaranteed one and with their host spot will probably walk away with two! Pays to be the top team from a small Fed. They're Fine!

Jasmine Tessari/Francesco Fioretti WS 34, SB 36 Landed an assignment last season but could use some candles and crossed fingers… they might get something? They're another team on the bubble - might walk away with something, but might also end up left out in the cold. GP Purgatory

Legally Guaranteed Spots: 26/60 Spiritually Guaranteed Spots: 32/60

North America, None Anxiety(or at least different anxiety):

We've seen a lot of handwringing recently, and we feel compelled to tell you not to worry. Or to at least worry more efficiently. Top five teams from Big Dance Feds get two spots, especially if they're already guaranteed one.

Christina Carreira/Anthony Ponomarenko WS 19, SB 18 Guaranteed one, may or may not get the host spot but they don't need it, stress about their attempts to claw their way through the ranks instead. They're Fine.

Lorraine McNamara/Quinn Carpenter WS 14, SB 16 See above! These plucky young Americans are in more or less the same position. They may or may not be brawling it out at the same events, but when it comes to getting assignments They're Fine.

The US ISP (International Selection Pool) is actually shockingly shallow for ice dance at this time, with only five senior teams listed and none of them needing a host pick. More might be added after further monitoring during the summer, however, so USFSA might want to hang onto one host spot just in case. Lydia Erdman and Yuri Vlasenko(8th at Nationals) had a decent showing for a brand new team, and if they've made enough progress since January they might be in the running.

There's also the question of new partnerships. The Parsons split due to Rachel's unfortunate retirement to better take care of her health, but he is continuing on. Rumor has it he's teaming up with reigning US Junior National Champion Caroline Green, which certainly is a choice one could decide to make! Potential cradle robbing situation or no, any new partnership he might form would at least be considered for a host spot if they get together in time.

Alexander Petrov(JGP competitor and 11th at Junior Nationals) has teamed up with former singles skater Livvy Shilling, so if they progress well and make a good showing at Dance Camp at the end of June they could have an auspicious start to her ice dance career and their partnership.

The Shibs(WS 30) should get two from the Returning Couple Rule if they come back this season, but it's a month till assignments come out and they have not stated any intention to compete. Still worth noting just in case.

Marjorie Lajoie/Zachary Lagha WS 22, SB 21 Guaranteed one, will almost certainly get two, and probably won't even need the host pick. Quite a few Junior World Champions and Medalists have gotten two without it, but it doesn't hurt that they have a host pick to fall back on. They're Fine.

Carolane Soucisse/Shane Firus WS 18, SB 25 We've seen quite a bit of questioning whether these two will even get anything so to clear it up, they're guaranteed one and we will be genuinely surprised if they don't get two in the initial selection, and downright shocked if they don't have a second assignment by the time the GP series actually rolls around. They're Fine, probably.

Haley Sales/Nikolas Wamsteeker WS 53, SB 51 We know they were 4th at Nationals, but when it comes to GP invites other countries mostly care about your international record and they just don't have the numbers for anything beyond a host pick. And even domestically, let's be honest, Soucisse/Firus defeated themselves at Nationals. Host Pick Please!

Alicia Fabbri/Paul Ayer WS 61, SB 59 Their first season together was a bit rocky but came together at the end, and they've gelled very nicely. They're very young, so depending on their progress and what the federation thinks of them during monitoring, they could be up for the host pick. Host Pick Please!

Ellie Fisher/Simon-Pierre Malette-Paquette WS 59, SB 47 Somewhat better numbers than Fabbri/Ayer, but not so overwhelmingly that they have a major advantage going into monitoring. Neither team really has the numbers or reputation to swing a GP outside of Canada, so it's going to be down to what the federation officials think of each team's progress and potential. Host Pick Please!

Legally Guaranteed Spots: 30/60 Spiritually Guaranteed Spots: 40/60

Miscellaneous Teams Who Didn't Make it To Worlds But Are in the Running Anyway:

Olivia Smart/Adrian Diaz WS 13, SB 19 They're guaranteed one but should easily swing two, as they did this past season. They're Fine.

Darya Popova/Volodymyr Byelikov WS 26, SB 43 Sometimes the teams in the running for spots are who you expect, and sometimes math takes you by surprise. These two have been pulling double duty as both junior and seniors for a while, and it's lead to them sneakily racking up WS points with all their competitions while the mods weren't paying attention. Three of the teams ahead of them on the WS list won't even be competing on the GP, so they've got a great shot at at least one assignment. Surprisingly Better Than None.

Katharina Mueller/Tim Dieck WS 43, SB 40 Chances aren't amazing, but far from non-existent. Could pick something up down the line if they cross their fingers. Luck Be A Lady

Robynne Tweedale/Joseph Buckland WS 46, SB 37 They got two spots last season, a feat they are, uh, unlikely to replicate this season. They might get a later spot. Would You Light My Candle?

Adelina Galyavieva/Louis Thauron WS 55, SB 31 Probably get the host pick, might get a second assignment down the road if there's an opening. Better Than None

Legally Guaranteed Spots: 31/60 Spiritually Guaranteed Spots: 43/60

The Russian Stress Ulcer Situation:

After four straight years of two spots at worlds, Russia has finally earned back a third, and not a moment too soon because this? This is a mess y'all. Have fun predicting who will emerge victorious from this chaotic mass brawl, because we're not even bothering to think about actual results. Chances are decent Russia will leave a host spot open until after the Test Skates in September.

Tiffani Zagorski/Jonathan Guerreiro WS 12, SB 12 Guaranteed one and very likely to get two! Top 12 on both World Standing AND Season's Best will do that for you, regardless of what happens at Nationals. They're Fine

Sofia Evdokimova/Egor Bazin WS 28, SB 22 Guaranteed one, with a pretty decent chance of walking away with a second assignment. They’re Fine, probably.

Anastasia Skoptcova/Kirill Aleshin WS 37, SB 20 They're guaranteed one thanks to their scores from last season, but unfortunately the injury that hampered the start of their season took its toll on their WS points. 50/50

Sofia Shevchenko/Igor Eremenko WS 23, SB 27 Guaranteed one and they have a really good shot at a second assignment. While not a sure thing, they are the reigning JGPF champions and Junior World Bronze Medalists, and their SB is pretty high. Show Me A Second Spot

Betina Popova/Sergey Mozgov WS 29, SB 28 Nothing guaranteed but decent chance to get at least one on their own and/or host pick but we make no promises. A Fine, Fine Line

Anastasia Shpilevaya/Grigory Smirnov WS 57, SB 32 *extended sigh* Realistically would need a host pick for any spot. Slim chance based on last year though they do have a full season behind them this time(including Nationals!) if you still believe things like that matter. Forget candles and prayer circles, it's time for dark magic. All Of The Handwringing

Annabelle Morozov/Andrei Bagin WS N/A, SB 50 Despite having had a GP host pick and two challenger events, a greater amount of assignments for a first senior season than some other teams on this list, didn't place high enough at any of them to get any WS points at all. Should not be in the conversation for the host pick but, unfortunately, are probably in the conversation for the host pick. Somehow Relevant

Ksenia Konkina/Pavel Drozd WS 90, SB N/A In the reverse of the previous team, their one competition gave them WS points, but didn't count for the ISU SB list despite doing very well there. They'll be brawling for a potential host pick at the Test Skates, if the Fed even leaves one to fight over. Be Prepared So Many Teams, So Little Room

Elena Ilinykh/Dmitry Soloviev WS N/A, SB N/A AKA Schrodinger's Dance Team. Elena is both retired and not. She is interested in competing again and not. They're skating together and not. They're only interested in shows and not. They're planning for competition and not. They definitely are trying to drive the mods into an early grave so at least there are some certainties in life. They could get GP spots through the Split Couple Rule, but quite frankly, GP assignments come out in a month and they still haven't committed to skating together. Empty Chairs At Empty Tables

Legally Guaranteed Spots: 35/60 Spiritually Guaranteed Spots: 51/60

We decided to go with a low estimate for the Spiritual Guarantees, but this should give you some idea of your faves chances.

#ice dance #2019 GP #season: 2019 2020 #preview

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