#new york 2022

[ashtonsunshine]

Nice to meet the guys from @5sos

via Ashton's instagram. 6th October 2022

[blueedahlia]

Harry Styles | 05.20.22 | New York | One Night Only

© Anthony Pham

04/∞ - Harry Melancholy series

[fireessie]

"I'm racking my brain, which is already damaged" 💀 DARIO!

[fuckyeahgoodomens]

Micheal Sheen was originally cast as Crowley

(I will never tire of hearing this 🥰)

Neil Gaiman: The truth is that Michael was meant to have played Crowley. That was where it all began: was me going, 'Who do I know who could be Crowley? Michael Sheen loves the book, Michael would do it.', called Michael, do you want to do it, and he's like, 'Yes!', I thought, 'Great, I have a Crowley.'. So when I started writing the scripts, I was writing them going I know I have - at least I have my Crowley, I have Michael Sheen. And around the middle of Episode 3, I was going, 'This Crowley doesn't really feel a lot like Michael Sheen.', and I wrote this sceen when Crowley comes down the center aisle of a church hopping like a man on a beach on a hot day 'cause it's walking on holy ground and I thought, 'David Tennant would be really good at that, I could get David Tennant.', and then when it was all done I figured I had to break it to Michael, that he wasn't going to be Crowley, that I wanted him to be Aziraphale, and he read the scripts, and we had this really really awkward dinner, that because I was trying to pluck the courage to break it to Michael that I wanted him to play Aziraphale, and Michael was trying to find the way to break it to me that he did not want to play Crowley that he wanted to play Aziraphale having read the scripts. So it was an awful dinner until the end where we just like, 'Oh, you too?! Oh! Oh, good! Well I'm thinking of David Tennant, oh good you like him. Okay.' So it became a lot easier at that moment.

[389]

"Tranquility" May 2022 8.5x11" Printed on raw canvas

Designed and printed by Ash Allen in Brooklyn, NY

[statespoll]

New York Gov Race Data For Progess, 9/9-9/13, 931 LV.

1. Poll results

Data For Progess, 9/9-9/13, 931 LV.

https://www.cityandstateny.com/politics/2022/09/hochul-leads-zeldin-52-39-according-data-progress-poll/377211/

https://www.filesforprogress.org/datasets/2022/9/dfp_ny_2022_midterms_0922_toplines.pdf

* My Party ID % By States speculation post:

https://statespoll.com/post/693171640806391808

Summary

2022 NY Gov Race

Poll samples: 

Poll results: Hochul 52% / Zeldin 39%  D +13%

2) Adjusted %: Hochul 55.15% / Zeldin 38.12%.  D +17.03%

2. Adjusted %

1) Party ID %

My Specualtion, 2022 NY(With Leaner): DEM 57% REP 38% IND 5%

Hochul: DEM(57%)x88%+REP(38%)x8%+IND(5%)x39%= 55.15%

Zeldin: DEM(57%)x4%+REP(38%)x88%+IND(5%)x48%= 38.12%

[missegyptiana]

blake said in the live stream that her dress has the constellations of grand central station, the colour of the statue of liberty, the reveal of her dress that went from copper to green representing oxidized copper, like liberty, her crown has 7 spikes like the statue of libertys crown, which represents the 7 seas and the 7 continents, and represents freedom and inclusion. i’m in love.

[dontmean2bepoliticalbut]

[ashtonsunshine]

via Ashton's instagram story. 30th September 2022

[lovepinkshiftforever]

"i don't want your fake obsessions, i need something real to change" pinkshift

photos by @m1lkmansmolotov at elsewhere space zone 1, brooklyn, NY, november 2022

[zegalba]

Supreme x Yohji Yamamoto: Tekken Graphic Skateboard Deck (2022)

[unplaces]

Niagara Ave, Niagara Falls, New York.

[fuckyeahgoodomens]

Season 2 is kind of quiet and gentle and romantic as opposed to season 1. And if we ever get to hypothetical season 3 it will probably not be quiet and gentle and romantic either but this is the soft, gentle, romance in the filling of the sandwich. 👀 ❤ 🥰

[chuutoro]

that glove change is SO SMOOTH

+

[statespoll]

Election 2022 Governor Prediction Map September 12, 2022

My Twitter: https://twitter.com/StatesPoll/ This Map Created with www.Mapchart.net

* My analysis is neutral, not biased.  

Based on

1) Presidential Election 2020 Fox New Voter Analysis  

https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/voter-analysis

2) Latest Poll(adjustment)

3) Voter registration statistics Trend + VBM

4) Oppostion Party’s Advantage on the Midterm

(more Rep % / less Dem % than Presidential Year)

* My Party ID % By States speculation post:

https://statespoll.com/post/694987959722770432   (September, 2022)

I. BattleGround States

1. Pennsylvania

1) My Party ID speculation, PA

with leaner: REP 50% / DEM 44% / IND 6%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Raba Research 8/31-9/3, 679 LV

https://www.rabaresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/RABA-Pennsylvania-Survey.pdf

Poll samples: DEM 45% REP 43% IND/Other 12%

Poll results: Shapiro 47% / Mastriano 41%. D +6%

Adjusted: Mastriano 44.9% / Shapiro 43.7%.  R +1.2%

FYI) 2020 Fox Analysis, PA(with leaner): R 49% D 46% IND 5%

My 2022 PASen Speculaton(with leaner): R 50% D 44% IND 6%

Mastriano 41%+(1%x90%)+(6%x50%)=44.9%

Shapiro 47% - (1%x90%) - (6%x40%)= 43.7%

(2)  Emerson 8/22-8/23, 1,034 LV.

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/pennsylvania-2022-fetterman-holds-four-point-lead-over-oz-for-us-senate-shapiro-leads-mastriano-by-three/

Poll samples: D 41.3% R 36.6% IND 22.2%

Poll results: Shapiro 47.2% / Mastriano 44.2%   D +3%

Adjusted %: Mastraino 49.9% / Shapiro 42.9%  R +7%

Mastriano: 44.2% +(13.4%x50%) - (2.7%x37.5%)=  49.89%

Shapiro: 47.2% -(13.4%x40%) + (2.7%x40%)= 42.92%

3) Pennsylvania Gov  Race 2022 Forecast: Tilt R

2. Wisconsin

1) My Party ID speculation, WI

with leaner: REP 52% / DEM 42% / IND 6%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Trafalgar, 8/22-8/25. 1,091 LV

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/WI-Gen-Poll-Report-0827.pdf

Poll Samples R 45.4% D 43.2% IND/Other 11.4%

Poll results: Evers(DEM) 48.0% / Michels(REP) 47.5%. D +0.5%

Adjusted: Johnson(REP) 51.46% / Evers(DEM) 46.02%. R +5.44%

Michels(REP): 47.5%+(6.6%x60%)=51.46%

Evers(DEM) 48%-(6.6%x30%)=46.02%

(2) Marquette, 8/10-8/15. 811 RV

https://www.dropbox.com/s/zngmhb6qttkqvcn/MLSP71Crosstabs.html?dl=1

Poll results:  Evers(DEM) 45% / Michels(REP) 43%

Adjusted %: Michels(REP) 48.2% / Evers(DEM) 41.7%. R +6.5%

[1]  Michels(REP) Total  48.176%

REP(52% Share) x 86% = 44.72

DEM (42% Share) x 5% = 2.1

IND/Other/None (6% Share) x 22.6% = 1.356%

[2] Evers(DEM) Total 41.68%

REP(52% Share) x 7% = 3.64

DEM (42% Share) x 87% = 36.54

IND (6% Share)  x 25% = 1.5

3) Wisconsin 2022 Gov Race Forecast: Likely R

3. Michigan

1) My Party ID speculation, MI

with Leaner: REP 49% / DEM 44% / IND 7%

2) Latest Poll

(1)  Impact Research/@Fabrizio_Lee/@AARP, 500 LV, 8/8-14  

https://t.co/meAEVz089U

Poll results: Whitmer(DEM) 51% / Dixon(REP) 46%

Adjusted %:  Dixon(REP) 50.0% / Whitmer(DEM) 48.0%.  R +2.0%

[1]   Dixon(REP) Total 50.02%

REP(49% Share) x 94% = 46.06

DEM (44% Share) x 2% = 0.88

IND (7% Share)  x 44% = 3.08

[2]  Whitmer(DEM)  Total 48%

REP(49% Share) x 5% = 2.45

DEM (44% Share) x 97% = 42.68

IND (7% Share)  x 41% = 2.87%

(2) Michigan Governor: Whitmer (D-inc) 48% / Dixon ® 35%

Glengariff Group/@detroitnews, 600 LV, 8/29-9/1

*FYI) 2018 #MISen Glengariff final poll 10/25-27, 2018 Stabenow(D) 53%

James® 36% Final results: Stabenow 52.26% James 45.76%

so I guess This poll underestimated Dixon®

3) Michigan 2022 Gov Race Forecast: Toss up

4. Arizona

1) My Party ID speculation, AZ

with leaner: REP 51% / DEM 42% / IND 7%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Emerson 9/6-9/7. 627 LV

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/arizona-2022-mark-kelly-faces-tight-race-with-blake-masters-katie-hobbs-and-kari-lake-in-dead-heat-for-governorship/

Poll samples: R 36.1% D 32.8% IND 31.1%

Poll results: Lake 46.1% / Hobbs 46.1%

Adjusted %: Lake 50.1% / Hobbs 43.0%.  R +7.1%

Lake 46.1%+(14.9%x50%)-(9.2%x37%)=50.146%

Hobbs 46.1%-(14.9%x46%)+(9.2%x41%)= 43.018%

3) Arizona Party ID %  Statistics

(1) August 2022

REP: 34.52%  DEM: 30.97%   R +3.55%

https://azsos.gov/elections/voter-registration-historical-election-data

(2) November 6, 2018: Total 3,712,500

Rep: 35.24% DEM: 32.2%  R +3.04%

https://azsos.gov/elections/voter-registration-historical-election-data/voter-registration-counts

about +0.51% shift for Rep.

4) Arizona 2022 Forecast: Lean R

5. Nevada

1) My Party ID speculation, NV

with leaner: REP 49% / DEM 45% / IND 6%,

2) Latest Poll

(1) Trafalgar, 8/15-8/18. 1,082 LV

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/TRF-NV-General-0819-Poll-Report.pdf

Poll results: Lombardo(REP) 46% / Sisolak(DEM) 44%

Adjusted %:   Lombardo(REP) 46% / Sisolak(DEM) 44%

3) Nevada Party ID %  Statistics

(1) August 1, 2022: Active Voters.  Total 1,818,886

DEM 598,542(32.91%) REP 547,842(30.12%)  D +2.79%

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/elections/voters/voter-registration-statistics/2022

(2) November 2, 2020: Active Voters.  Total 1,821,356

DEM 679,332(37.3%) REP 591,916(32.5%)  D +4.8%

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/elections/voters/2020-statistics/-fsiteid-1

about +2.01% shift for Rep.

4) Nevada 2022 Forecast: Tilt R

6. Minnesota

1) My Party ID speculation, MN

with leaner: REP 47% / DEM 45% / IND 8%

2) Latest Poll

(1) SurveyUSA, 8/30-9/4. 562 LV

https://kstp.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/SurveyUSA-Governors-Race-09-06-22.pdf

Poll samples: D 35% R 35% IND 26%

(kinda similar as my speculation without Leaner)

Poll results: Walz 51% / Jensen 33%.  D +18%

Adjusted %: Similar as poll results

(2) Gravis, 8/17-8/19. 510 LV

https://wixlabs-pdf-dev.appspot.com/assets/pdfjs/web/viewer.html?file=/pdfproxy%3Finstance%3Db1RTA-3ol0MsmXkSCqLrW-4NpCbsMr_61Ugoscs94QE.eyJpbnN0YW5jZUlkIjoiNWMyZTE2OGUtYzU2Ny00MTAxLWJjODQtYjUwOGI5YzJkYmY1IiwiYXBwRGVmSWQiOiIxM2VlMTBhMy1lY2I5LTdlZmYtNDI5OC1kMmY5ZjM0YWNmMGQiLCJtZXRhU2l0ZUlkIjoiMzI2NGMyYjctODEyMS00NTc1LTlmMjctOTY2NjFlYzU3OGE5Iiwic2lnbkRhdGUiOiIyMDIyLTA5LTA4VDE1OjM5OjAzLjA3MVoiLCJkZW1vTW9kZSI6ZmFsc2UsImFpZCI6IjU3YjFkNDkxLTk0N2YtNDdmMS1hMjZmLWIwZmY1NDFmNjgxOCIsImJpVG9rZW4iOiI2ZTRhZDQzOS00NDQ2LTA0NzQtMjNhMy0yMzZlYTcwN2EzNWMiLCJzaXRlT3duZXJJZCI6IjYwNjA2MWM1LWZmOGUtNDM4NS1hZjZjLTg2YTMzZTYwNmJkYiJ9%26compId%3Dcomp-l7hzzwln%26url%3Dhttps://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/606061_a45f17e9c5bc4c42b9a37f427b925cc9.pdf#page=1&links=true&originalFileName=Minnesota%20Governor%20and%20Jury%20Democracy%20poll%208-22-22&locale=en&allowDownload=true&allowPrinting=true

Poll samples: D 36% R 35% IND 28% (kinda similar as my speculation without Leaner)

Poll results: Walz(DEM) 51% / Jensen(REP) 36%. D +15%

Adjusted %: Similar as poll results

3) Minnesota 2022 Forecast: Lean~Likely D

Poll number is nearly solid D, But I considered 3rd parties factor(two wees parties which are generally takes the more vote away from Dem than Rep.) + many undecided.

+ 2020 Fox voter analysis, MN with Leaner

It was D 47% R 46% IND 6%

https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/voter-analysis?state=MN

So I guess MN is Lean~Likely D

7. Oregon

3-way Race in Oregon.

Republican / Democrat / former Democrat IND candidate

So it is gonna be a toss up race.

8. Maine

9. New Mexico

1) My Party ID speculation, NM

with leaner: DEM 49% / REP 45% / IND 6%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Journal, 8/19-8/25. 518 voters

https://www.abqjournal.com/2527965/lujan-grisham-has-7point-lead-over-ronchetti.html

1) Poll results

Grisham(DEM) 47% / Ronchetti(REP) 40%

Adjusted: Grisham(DEM) 45.36% / Ronchetti 44.01%. D +1.35%

2) Adjusted %:  

1) Party ID %

My Specualtion, 2022 NM(With Leaner): DEM 49% REP 45% IND 6%

Grisham: DEM(49%)x82% + REP(45%)x7% + IND(6%)x35%= 45.36%

Ronchetti: DEM(49%)x9% + REP(45%)x84% + IND(6%)x30%= 44.01%

3) New Mexico Governor 2022 Forecast: Toss up

10. Colorado

1) My Party ID speculation, CO

with leaner: DEM 48% / REP 45% / IND 8%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Trafalgar, 8/15-8/19. 1,087 LV

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/co-sen-0823/

Poll results: Jared Polis(DEM) 46.8% / Heidi Ganahl(REP) 42.1%. D +4.7%

Adjusted %:Similar as Poll results

3) Colorado Governor 2022 Forecast: Likely D

11. Connecticut

with leaner: DEM 53% / REP 41% / IND 6%

2) Latest Poll

none

3) Connecticut Governor 2022 Forecast: Likely D

FYI) 2018 CO Gov race results: Lamont 49.4% / Stefanowski 46.2%. D +3.2%

The race for governor is heating up with a 2018 rematch of

Ned Lamont vs. Bob Stefanowski.

12. Illinois

1) My Party ID speculation, IL

with leaner: DEM 51% / REP 41% / IND 8%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Victory Research ®

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20220722_IL_VictoryResearch.pdf

Poll results: Pritzker(DEM) 49% / Bailey(REP) 39%. D +10%

Adjusted %: Pritzker(DEM) 48.36% / Bailey(REP) 40.27%. D +8.09%

[1]  Pritzker(DEM) Total 48.363%

DEM(51% Share) x 82.4% = 42.024

REP (41% Share) x 8.3% = 3.403

IND/Other (8% Share) x 36.7% = 2.936

[2] Bailey(REP) Total  40.268%

DEM(51% Share) x 6.1% = 3.111

REP (41% Share) x 81.3% = 33.333

IND/Other (8% Share) x 47.8% = 3.824

3) Illinois Governor 2022 Forecast: Likely D

13. New York

1) My Party ID speculation, New York

with leaner: DEM 57% / REP 38% / IND 5%

without leaner: DEM 48% / REP 26% / IND 26%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Coeffcient 9/5-9/7, 1,194 LV

https://nypost.com/2022/09/11/lee-zeldin-trails-kathy-hochul-by-only-6-points-in-ny-governors-race-poll/?utm_source=NYPMetroTwitter&utm_medium=SocialFlow&utm_campaign=SocialFlow

Poll results: Hochul(DEM) 49% / Zeldin(REP) 43% D+6%

Crosstabs detail: https://twitter.com/StatesPoll/status/1569273484425199616/photo/1

(2) Trafalgar 8/31-9/1, 1091 LV

Poll results: Hochul(DEM) 47.8% / Zeldin(REP) 43.4%  D +4.4%

3) New York Governor 2022 Forecast: Likely D

[rootlessly]

chimney bluffs state park ⋇ 09 oct